Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/27/18

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
958 PM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring pleasant afternoons away from the raw / chilly NE winds along the coast Tuesday. Spotty precipitation Wednesday and into Thursday. Spring-like temperatures return Thursday and into Friday before a cold front passes through over the weekend. On and offshore showers for the end of the week into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 10 pm update... Tranquil, overnight weather. High pressure against an offshore low. Pressure gradient persists over SE New England, subsequent near 30- mph wind gusts along with scattered 2-3 kft cloud decks, otherwise light winds. Add clear conditions, locations already decoupling, radiational cooling ongoing, looking at lows dropping down into the 20s to teens N/W. Per RAP model, scattered H2-3 high cloud / cirrus by morning round a building mid-upper level ridge into the region. Such clouds could limit ongoing decoupling prior to sunrise. Aside, few things to watch: 1.) Cape and Islands NE wind persistence, 2.) marine stratus, and 3.) high cloud from the W. All which would have implications on overnight 2m temperatures, radiational cooling processes, and morning lows. An exciting night to say the least. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Tuesday... Blocking well downstream of the cutoff S of Nova Scotia, continues to prevent it from shifting further E with time. Meanwhile secondary trof continues to push E from the Great Lakes late Tue into Tue night. This squeezes the foldover ridge significantly limiting the building due to WAA into it. However, this mid lvl ridging will be the dominant player through the day on Tue, yielding mainly dry wx with continued subsidence throughout the day. In fact aside from some ocean enhanced clouds moving in from the E, expecting another mainly sunny day until filtered CI spills over from the W in advance of a sfc-low lvl warm front. Modest WAA yields a nearly isothermal layer H92 to H85, with after- noon temps at this lvl approaching +3C. Therefore, expecting highs in the low-mid 50s in the CT valley, mid 40s to around 50 elsewhere except E coastal MA, where onshore flow will limit temps to the low 40s. Tuesday night... Vertical depth of the isothermal layer continues to build overnight expanding to between H92 and H7 at least, although there is little change with actual values, holding near +3C. Overnight diurnal temp drop-off at the sfc will be key as some locations dip to below the freezing mark by early AM. While temps drop, noting gradual saturation through the isothermal layer and points above, however dwpt depressions near the sfc run nearly 10C through much of the night. Light overrunning within this moist layer will be enough to yield light SCT precipitation moving W-E from NY during the early morning hours. As sfc temps cool/wetbulb, whether or not they fall below freezing will determine whether pockets of light FZRA or sleet are observed, but given the dry layer near the sfc the onset of precipitation will be slow. Given this uncertainty, will hold off on any headlines for FZRA risk at this time, but this will have to be monitored as we approach. Best chance where all of these factors come together is in NW MA/CT at this time. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Highlights... * Light precip/ice possible Wednesday morning * Spring-like weather returns by Thursday into Friday * On and off showers by the end of the week into the weekend Overview... 12z guidance is general agreement with the overall flow, however there are differences when it comes to each shortwave resulting in a spread in the timing and track of each system. Strong upper level low will remain anchored over Manitoba/Hudson Bay with high pressure over Greenland. Broad cyclonic flow will be the overall pattern with quick moving upper impulses late this week and into the weekend. Approaching low on Wednesday will try to push a warm front through on Thursday. Flow turns more zonal, but still an active pattern with several shortwaves pushing through the flow. This has lead to a low confidence forecast due to the spread in guidance. Overall appears that the trend is for an active end of the week into the weekend. Details... Wednesday...Moderate confidence. * Potential for spotty light freezing rain Wednesday morning Exiting high pressure over the region with a weak wave approaching from the west. Light precip will move into the CT River Valley Wednesday morning, once the profile saturates. Precip will struggle to move eastward as high pressure offshore will keep enough dry air in place to limit precip chances. Thermals are a bit marginal as a warm layer moves into the region around 800 mb. If surface temperatures are at or below 32F in the morning, then the potential for some spotty freezing rain is possible. Best location is across the CT river valley, and the east slope of the Berks. Will continue to evaluate the need for headlines over the next day. Temperatures on Wednesday will quickly warm by the late morning into the afternoon. This will change any p-type to all rain. Approaching surface low across the Midwest will eventually bring widespread precip to the rest of the region later in the day. However, this system will be quite weak so only expect light rain showers into the evening. Thursday and beyond...Moderate confidence. Temperatures... Spring returns to the region as west to southwest flow filters into the area. High temps will warm above average for the end of March as warm front tries to push through on Thursday. Feel guidance is to optimistic and warm front will hang up south of the area. Thus have lowered Thursday temps a few degrees. On Friday, with approaching cold front, feel a surge of WAA will occur with the potential for a few spots reaching into the low 60`s. Behind the cold front, temperatures will drop back to near seasonable by the weekend into early next week. Precipitation... Mid-level ridge will begin to break down with several waves moving through the flow as mentioned above. These waves will result in a few rounds of precip during the period. Spotty light precip is possible on Thursday, with a heavier round of rainfall possible on Friday, depending on where the low pressure tracks and the locations of the cold front. Ensembles continue indicate precip potential on Saturday with a drying trend into early next week. Because of the uncertainty kept a slight chc of precip until guidance becomes more inline. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...High Confidence. Tonight into Tuesday... VFR except Cape and Islands where SCT-BKN 2-3 kft CIGs persist along with NE winds gusting up to 30 mph. Diminishing trend into Tuesday. Otherwise building FEW-SCT high CIGs, light winds. Tuesday night... Progressively deteriorating conditions, mainly across W MA/CT by 12z Wed. CIGS diminish to MVFR or low VFR. -RA (potential for -FZRA across NW MA early). Winds light and variable, but gradually trending toward S by Wed morning. KBOS Terminal...Will monitor potential SCT 2-3 kft MVFR CIGs through early Tuesday morning. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...Moderate Confidence. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance FZRA. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Sunday: Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Tuesday Night/... Through Tuesday... N-NE winds will continue to gust 25 to 30+ kt on the waters through the overnight hours then gradually dissipate through the day tomorrow. However, lingering long- period swell from the E will persist thanks to a storm system S of Nova Scotia. Although winds will drop below thresholds, the high seas caused by the swell will force the maintenance of Small Craft Advisories through Tue. Tuesday night... Winds will be gradually shifting to the S but remain below small craft thresholds. Seas remain elevated due to swell. Small Craft Advisories will continue due to this risk. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...Moderate Confidence. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .EQUIPMENT... Due to our move to the new forecast office in Norton, MA, we are still trying to resolve some communication issues. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitter is back on the air... Somers, CT transmitter........WXJ41.....162.475 MHz However, the following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters are not yet on the air... Johnston, RI transmitter......WXJ39.....162.400 MHz Gloucester, MA transmitter....WNG574....162.425 MHz Blue Hill, MA transmitter.....KHB35.....162.475 MHz Hyannis, MA transmitter.......KEC73.....162.550 MHz Paxton, MA transmitter........WXL93.....162.550 MHz && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ232-235- 237-250-251-254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ231-233- 234. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Doody/Dunten NEAR TERM...Doody/Dunten/Sipprell SHORT TERM...Doody LONG TERM...Dunten AVIATION...Doody/Dunten MARINE...Doody/Dunten EQUIPMENT...WFO BOX Staff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1118 PM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure over Pennsylvania will push off the east coast by Tuesday, as a shortwave tracks east across the Great Lakes. A deepening upper trough and associated surface low will sweep through the region late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Will continue to leave mention of ZR in for the morning (post- sunrise) hours. The daylight/heating and SSE wind are the wild cards, as temps should be below freezing in most places over the Wrn half of the area around sunrise. The late March sun should warm up the surfaces quickly even if the air is still below fzg by mid morning. But, it is still worth mentioning, but not yet worth an advy. While a few sleet pellets are also possible, have left out mentions for now, as the mention of all those p-types could make for an ominous forecast - when there is a pretty low threat of freezing/frozen pcpn - and only for a short time after rush hour in most places. Prev... Thin high clouds are moving in and will slowly spread across the rest of the area tonight as they thicken up. Timing on latest mdl runs suggests that no precip gets to the CWA until after sunrise, and perhaps not until closer to 10-11AM. So, the threat for ZR is pretty low, especially overnight where PoPs have been set to nil. Prev... Earlier shallow cumulus has entrained nicely leaving sunny skies throughout this afternoon. Temperatures have moderated a few degrees from yesterday with readings ranging through the 40s. It will be clear with light winds to start tonight providing favorable conditions for radiational cooling, especially over eastern portions. Kept mins a bit below guidance for this. Across the west, clouds increase across the west and central, and there`s still an outside chance at some light shower activity reaching into my western zones before sunrise, which would produce patchy freezing rain if it did so. Think the increasing clouds and breeze will keep reading slightly above guidance across the west, and that incoming moisture will have dry air to overcome before precip arrives, so think precip will hold off in most areas until well after 12z. Consensus among surrounding offices was to hold off on any headlines and strongly concur at this time. && .SHORT TERM /10 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Increasing clouds and warm advection in advance of Great Lakes shortwave will bring showers into the western half of central PA by afternoon. Surface ridge wedged east of the Appalachians and associated cold air damming may hold in just enough cold air for a brief period of -fzra across the Alleghenies if precip arrives early enough Tuesday morning. Confidence still too low on this, and think most areas warm above freezing before precip arrives. Model soundings and ensemble plume diagrams indicate any threat of icing should end by late morning. Have placed the highest POPs of 80-90 pct across the northwest counties for the afternoon hours, where low level jet focuses best moisture and lift. Southeast has only a slight chance of rain by late afternoon. Cold air damming and increasing clouds/moisture will keep temps slightly cooler than guidance, with most areas ranging from the upper 30s north to the lower 40s south. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As was the case in late February...a southwest flow of air works into the area on Wednesday. Temperatures will climb to above normal for a few days. Main issue is where the cold front stalls and if one will get a weak low on the front...or a bigger storm for late Friday. 12Z EC has backed off on such a deep system from the 00Z run...but I did up pops a little Friday night. Main change was to split the weather group in two for Saturday. As noted by earlier shifts...I did not want to go too high with POPS in any one time group. For day 7 weighted most of the fields by the superblend. Prior to Friday night...main change was to lower temperatures a little after Wednesday...given lack of strong low level flow...and hints that cold front could stall or sag south of central PA. Overall...there has a lot of model spread for late in the week the last few days. Easter looks dry but on the cool side. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR will prevail overnight. The HRRR still shows the rain or wintry mix overspreading my western zones between 7-9 am. Latest timing suggests lowering conditions begin to develop mid to late morning over the west, and spread east during the afternoon. The weather is expected to remain unsettled through the end of the week. Outlook... Tue Wed...Restrictions likely with scattered rain showers. Thu-Fri...Widespread MVFR/IFR with rain or showers. Sat...Psbl MVFR north. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...La Corte
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
547 PM MDT Mon Mar 26 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Just a few rain/snow showers occurring across the CWA this afternoon in association with an upper trough draped ne-sw across Wy. This trough will weaken slowly overnight as energy gets pulled southward to an upper low over AZ so expect pcpn to end and skies to gradually clear overnight. Tuesday will be mild and dry under mostly sunny skies with the upper flow becoming established out of the northwest. The next upper trough will begin to approach the CWA Tuesday night bringing a cool front into the CWA late and possibly a few snow showers to far northwest parts as well. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Cool and unsettled weather across the CWA Weds into Thursday as broad upper cyclonic flow sets up across much of North America. Will have to watch for potential for some decent snow Weds night into Thursday across parts of southeast Wy as some jet energy will overlay surface upslope flow for a time. Some accumulating snow looks likely especially over higher terrain. Clearing out Thursday night with the passage of a shortwave in the flow with mainly dry and mild weather returning Friday into Saturday. Next system approaches later Saturday with the EC showing a pretty strong cold front passing across by late Saturday and a chilly day Sunday with some snow. GFS similar but about a day faster. For now will favor the slower EC solution as it has better support with other models. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 545 PM MDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Expect snowshowers to end after sunset this evening. Mainly VFR across southeast Wyoming. Need to watch the Panhandle as latest HRRR guidance suggesting IFR conditions in the northern Panhandle tonight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Cool to mild temperatures expected through the period. Some wetting precipitation looks a good bet across much of the area Weds afternoon into Thursday and again towards Sunday. these factors will keep fire weather concerns low for the foreseeable future. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RE LONG TERM...RE AVIATION...GCC FIRE WEATHER...RE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
905 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 905 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for much of northwest Wisconsin due to recent reports of 2 to 3 inches with another 1 to possibly 3 inches still possible through about midnight or 1 am. Some freezing rain/drizzle will also be possible. UPDATE Issued at 819 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Snow has diminished or ended across western portions of the Northland and continued most other areas. Temperatures were still warm enough for rain or a mix over parts of northern Wisconsin but more snow than rain was occurring as of 01Z. Latest radar showed moderate to at times heavy snow moving across far eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. Surface temperatures have been a bit colder than earlier forecast and we adjusted them down leading to more snow across northwest Wisconsin. Snow amounts over northwest Wisconsin will range from 1 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts expected as an area of FGEN forcing moves through this evening. A spotter in northern Douglas County had just under an inch as of 740 pm and another spotter near Hayward had around 1.5 inches. No changes to the Winter Weather Advisory are planned at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 The Northland can continue to expect a wintry mixture of snow, rain, and freezing rain through this evening. A band of snow was dropping snow across much of central and north-central Minnesota, and along the Canadian border of northeast Minnesota, as of the middle of this afternoon. This band was caused by a mid-level frontogenetical band associated with low pressure in the Great Plains, as well as weak-moderate large-scale forcing for ascent from approaching upper-level low pressure from the west. This band is expected to shift west through the Northland this evening, and a shortwave lifting northeast into the southern forecast area will quickly fill in an area of snow and rain into MN/WI border region late this afternoon and early this evening. Models are probably underestimating snow from this latter feature because of not sufficiently producing cold enough surface temperatures which should happen with the dynamic cooling from this next wave of higher precipitation rates. The models are likely producing too much rain, such as for the Interstate 35 corridor in Pine County and parts of northwest WI. Therefore, had too some manual editing to bring down surface temperatures faster than the models, which gives those areas 1 to 3 inches of snow through this evening. Much of the rest of Minnesota can expect another 1 to 3 inches through this evening as from the frontogenetical band and forcing. There could also be a period of light freezing rain in the wake of the departing deeper moisture and precipitation this evening, potentially resulting in a light glaze on roads and surfaces. The snow will taper off from west to east later this evening, ending by around midnight. Snowfall totals, including what fell earlier today, should be about 3 to 6 inches across much of central and northeast MN, and about 1 to 3 inches in northwest WI. The greatest snowfall, of about to around 7 inches, is expected around and north of the Iron Range. Drier air will filter into the region with west flow later tonight and Wednesday in the wake of tonight`s passing low pressure. Temperatures will drop into the middle 20s by early Tuesday. While there will be some clouds in the morning, the afternoon looks sunny with warmer, mountain-modified air moving from the west. Highs should be at least in the middle to upper 40s, but lower 50s are possible. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 High pressure will remain in control for much of Tuesday night, but the next system will already start to move into the northwest part of the region later in the night. Low pressure moving across south central Canada will drag a cold front across Minnesota and western Wisconsin on Wednesday. The better chance of precipitation with this system appears to be west of our area, with a general decrease in precipitation as it moves eastward. High pressure and cooler air will then spread into the region Wednesday night and Thursday, with another cold front dropping into the region on Friday and Friday night. The models begin to show some pretty dramatic differences by Friday, with the GFS bringing considerable precipitation to the region on Friday night and early Saturday. The ECMWF shows high pressure over the region at that time, with precipitation moving through on Saturday and Saturday evening. Definitely some timing issues with regard to a potential system late this week and early this weekend. At this point, we will generally carry chance POP`s from later this week into the weekend, with a nod given to the ECMWF timing. Highs on Wednesday will range from around 40 at KINL to the lower 50s in Price County. By Thursday, daytime highs should be limited to the 30s for most areas. Friday and Saturday will be the coolest days of the long term period, with highs ranging from the mid 20s in the north to the mid 30s in the south. Overnight low temperatures later in the week could actually fall below zero in the north, as below normal temperatures persist. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 An area of low pressure passing through the region has caused widespread snow and some rain across the Northland as of early evening. Conditions varied from VLIFR to MVFR over much of northern Minnesota with some VFR conditions still occurring over parts of northern Wisconsin. The precipitation will diminish or end from west to east tonight and the visibility had already reached 10SM at KXVG and KPWC. As the main area of precipitation moves off, some drizzle or freezing drizzle and fog will be possible. Confidence in how quickly the clouds will diminish on Tuesday is lower than average. The latest RAP suggests clearing at KBRD mid to late morning and not until afternoon for other areas. Timing of the clearing will be refined overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 28 44 26 44 / 100 0 0 20 INL 26 46 29 41 / 90 0 30 40 BRD 27 44 28 44 / 90 0 0 20 HYR 29 46 23 50 / 100 0 0 10 ASX 30 46 26 49 / 100 10 0 20 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for WIZ001>004-006>008. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ010- 018-025-026-033>036-038. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for MNZ011- 012-019-020-037. LS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Melde SHORT TERM...Grochocinski LONG TERM...DAP AVIATION...Melde
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1022 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 .EVENING UPDATE... Went ahead and lowered PoPs for the everywhere but the westernmost extent of the CWA per the latest suite of hi-res model runs. There still exists a low chance for some isolated development from Del Rio west but per the 00Z KDRT sounding, capping continues with -45 CINH present although plenty of elevated CAPE remains. Thus, believe the best opportunity for development will have to come from outflow boundaries pushing into Val Verde. If they do, large hail and damaging winds will be the main concern as over 3000 joules of CAPE are shown on the 00Z sounding as well as DCAPE of over 1100 are present. However, as these cells move east (if they even develop), they`d be moving into an increasingly stable environment and should fall apart as they approach the Hill Country. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018/ AVIATION... Initial focus for the TAF period will be this evening for KDRT. Latest runs of the HRRR show the possibility of some thunderstorm initiation just north of the terminal late this evening associated with dryline activity. Will show VCTS for the evening hours there to account for this threat and amend as necessary through the early evening hours. For the I35 sites, thunderstorm activity will likely hold off until at least tomorrow afternoon, but scattered light rain showers will be possible in the morning hours as activity streams northward. A larger complex of thunderstorms should develop southwest of the I35 sites in the evening hours tomorrow and will move northeast into the San Antonio terminals around 3-5z and into AUS a couple hours later. Will show prevailing thunder for KSAT in its extended 30 hour portion of the TAF. Ceilings are VFR at the moment but will lower to MVFR later this evening and remain MVFR through the early afternoon hours tomorrow. Could see some possible IFR ceilings for DRT around daybreak. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018/ SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)... Main hazard highlights will focus on three hazard windows in the short term period: 1) Conditional risk of isolated strong to severe storms this evening across northwest Val Verde County - Low to Moderate confidence. 2) Conditional risk of isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon across Central Texas - Low to Medium confidence. 3) Late Tuesday night through the day on Wednesday with multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms and pockets of localized heavy rain - Medium to High confidence of occurrence. Main Message: - 1-2 inches of rainfall appears likely from late Tuesday through Wednesday. Some localized 3-4 inch amounts can`t be ruled out if heavier thunderstorms train over the same areas. - Large hail and localized 40-60 mph wind gusts could occur with the strong to severe thunderstorms. SPC has northwest Val Verde County in a Marginal risk for severe storms this evening. The Day 2 Slight risk covers much of the CWA and the Day 3 Slight Risk southeast areas of the CWA. - Despite the localized heavy rainfall likelihood, widespread flash flooding is not expected at this time given the recent dry conditions, however isolated minor flooding can`t be ruled out. Storms have developed across the Big Country of Texas this afternoon along the dry line and latest GOES-16 visible imagery indicates developing CU along the dryline trailing to the southwest toward the Big Bend. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch was recently issue for this area by SPC. Stratus is beginning to accelerate scattering out across Val Verde County and should eventually see de-stabilization in this area by evening as dry line approaches. Latest runs of HRRR and ARW/NMM and NAM12 and GFS indicating convection reaching northwest Val Verde county between 03Z-06Z. Forecast sounding indicate around 1500-2000 J/KG of MUCAPE as well as effective bulk shear values of around 60 kts. This should be supportive of a few strong to severe storms across northwest Val Verde county before CIN sets in. After 06Z convective inhibition rabidly increases and a weakening trend should take place in convection as it expands northeast through portions of the Hill Country. Farther east, isolated streamer showers should develop beneath the cap across the eastern Hill Country and near and east of I-35 overnight. Cap should hold through the morning hours on Tuesday. Instability should grow Tuesday afternoon to near 1500-2000 J/kg across Central Texas and the northern Hill Country where the dryline will shift slightly east. If the capping inversion weakens enough, there will be a conditional risk of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms across far northern ares of the CWA Tuesday afternoon as deep layer shear will be 50-60 knots. Primary event will focus on late Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Models for several runs have been keying in on convective development taking place 03Z-06Z Wednesday across portions of the Rio Grande Plains and Winter Garden region and expanding quickly east and northeast through the Hill Country and I-35 corridor. This is in response to height falls ahead of a strong ejecting shortwave impulse. PWATs are progged to climb to around 1.4-1.7 inches by this time, near record values for this time of year. Models indicate increased divergence aloft as 110 kt 300mb jet streak noses into the region, and deep omega values spreading northeast through the area. Upwards of 1500 J/Kg could still be present in this environment and bulk shear values of 60-80 kts will support strong to severe storms while a cold front shifts south and merges with the dryline. As forecast soundings becoming increasingly moist adiabatic overnight and into Wednesday morning the threat may transitions to more of a localized heavy rainfall threat, although strong storms still possible overnight. The thunderstorm evolution into Wednesday afternoon remains difficult to pin down. It will likely be dependent on how progressive and widespread showers and storms are in the morning that either undercut the warm sector with rain cooled outflows or if the front/dryline remain farther northwest and allow for a supportive warm and unstable sector to develop for additional thunderstorm development. GFS and ECMWF remain more progressive Wednesday night into early Thursday morning with precipitation chances ending west to east than the Canadian. Have continued with this thinking. LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)... Cooler and drier air will shift into the region Thursday and Friday. A return flow will setup Saturday and strengthen through the weekend, becoming breezy at times and producing warmer temperatures. The ECMWF and Canadian continue to indicate a frontal passage Monday and disturbance aloft producing a chance for precipitation. The GFS is farther north with the front but does show a disturbance in the southwest flow aloft generating precipitation over the region Monday. Given a Day 7 forecast we will at this time just introduce a 20 PoP. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 69 79 66 75 58 / 20 50 90 80 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 80 66 74 58 / 20 40 90 80 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 69 79 67 76 58 / 20 30 90 80 40 Burnet Muni Airport 67 75 62 72 53 / 30 60 90 80 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 67 83 64 83 54 / 40 30 60 20 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 68 78 63 73 55 / 20 50 90 80 30 Hondo Muni Airport 69 82 66 80 55 / 20 40 90 70 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 69 80 66 75 58 / 20 40 90 80 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 70 83 70 77 61 / 20 40 70 80 60 San Antonio Intl Airport 69 80 66 78 59 / 20 30 90 80 30 Stinson Muni Airport 70 81 68 78 59 / 20 30 90 80 40 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Mesoscale/Aviation...Hampshire Synoptic/Grids...TB3
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
913 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 912 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Cold frontal boundary continues to make slow progress across the Flint Hills at this time. Front is currently located from KWLD to KEMP. Low level moisture transport currently is ahead or to the SE of the front, but mainly parallel to the boundary, with light off and on showers continuing for most areas east of the Turnpike, or along or just ahead of the front. Most of the convection ahead of the front is staying well to the SE of the forecast area over central OK. Latest RAP data seems to support this with most of the instability, including most of the elevated instability staying mainly to the southeast of the forecast area as the front pushes southeast into NE OK. The only exception being extreme SE KS, where convergence along the front may lead to a few stray storms. Latest RAP and hi-rez models keep most of the better moisture transport and any instability in a SW to NE fashion over OK, which would keep it ahead of the main frontal boundary. So expect most of the heaviest rains to stay to the SE of the forecast area. Still think some weak moisture transport will continue, the off and on, showers for areas along or over the top of the front, for most of southern KS overnight, but think the chances of hearing any rumbles of thunder to the north of the front are diminishing. So will send out an update and remove most of the thunder mention for most areas west of the KS Turnpike. Low level drier air continues to try and scour out the fog to the north-northwest of the front. Still think some patchy fog will linger where the post frontal light showers will be located. But most visibilities will stay in the 3 to 5sm range. Ketcham && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Near term concern is convective trends early this evening, then the ebb and flow of precip chances through mid-week. Satellite at mid-afternoon was showing breaks in the clouds just south of the border in north central Oklahoma. Additional heating through late afternoon along the southward sagging surface front should yield a narrow ribbon of MLCAPE of around 1000 j/kg along the KS/OK border to the S-SE of metro Wichita. This in the presence of strong bulk shear may support a few strong/marginally severe storms during the early evening hours. Additional lift north of the front is expected to promote some elevated showers/isolated storms across southern Kansas later this evening/overnight. Precip chances will linger through much of Tuesday across southeast Kansas while gradually dwindling across central Kansas. The upper trof/low in the split flow regime across the southwest CONUS will gradually weaken/fill by mid-week as successively strong trofs within the northern stream absorb the southern feature across the central CONUS by Wednesday night/Thursday. Slight to modest precip chances could return as this occurs with the next frontal passage, though QPF looks relatively light. Darmofal .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Rather low confidence in the medium range as we head toward and through the weekend with a lot of spread in the operational ECMWF and GFS and ensemble members. This looks to affect the timing of potentially colder air advecting south across the Kansas Plains. The GFS would support the faster onset on Saturday, though delayed by about 24hrs by the ECMWF. The precip chances associated with front do not look overly impressive, though the air could become marginally cold enough for a light wintry mix across central Kansas. Expecting a lot could change in the coming days with respect to the weekend forecast, though it appears any weather impacts will be minimal for now. KED && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 659 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 MVFR to IFR/LIFR aviation conditions will be common across most of the forecast area overnight into early Tue, as a cold front makes slow progress into the Flint Hills and SE KS. IFR/LIFR CIGS will be common along or a few hours behind the front, currently located along the KS Turnpike. Along or ahead of the front scattered showers will lead to CIGS a little better in the MVFR range. Some drier air in the low layers, will lead to a gradual improvement in the CIGS across central KS to MVFR for the overnight hours. Could even see this drier air try to push into south central KS as well, with cigs improving some to MVFR as another round of showers moves across south central KS. Could see some VCTS over SE KS where the cold front will still be located with some elevated instability. But think the heavier SHRA/TSRA will stay to the SE of the KCNU taf site, so will only go with VCTS. Ketcham && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Periodic chances for additional rain and moderate daytime humidity levels will keep the fire danger low this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 43 49 36 63 / 60 60 10 10 Hutchinson 40 49 34 64 / 40 50 10 10 Newton 40 48 35 62 / 40 50 10 10 ElDorado 43 48 36 62 / 60 70 10 10 Winfield-KWLD 46 50 38 62 / 70 80 20 20 Russell 36 52 32 67 / 10 20 10 0 Great Bend 37 51 32 66 / 30 30 10 0 Salina 38 52 34 66 / 20 20 10 0 McPherson 39 50 34 64 / 30 40 10 0 Coffeyville 51 52 40 60 / 90 90 30 20 Chanute 47 49 38 61 / 80 90 30 10 Iola 46 49 37 61 / 90 90 20 10 Parsons-KPPF 50 50 39 61 / 90 90 30 20 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Ketcham SHORT TERM...KED LONG TERM...KED AVIATION...Ketcham FIRE WEATHER...KED
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1007 PM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS... As southerly winds develop across the southeastern states and into the Ohio Valley, occasional chances for rain will increase over the next several days. High pressure is expected to bring drier conditions for Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Area of light showers in lifting through ern IN into wrn OH and nrn KY. This is a couple of hours quicker than thought earlier. This band should work northeast through the region over the next few hours. QPF should only be a few hundredths of an inch. A second area develops in IL and IN after 06Z and builds into nw OH by 12Z. This band will continue a little heavier QPF, but not enough to cause any flooding issues. Temperatures will only drop a few degrees overnight, or will remain steady. Lows will range from the lower 40s in the no to the upper 40s in the sw. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The upper level pattern over the next several days -- beginning on Tuesday -- will feature ridging over the southeastern CONUS and troughing over the north-central CONUS. A broad trough in surface pressure is expected to develop in between these features, running roughly from Texas through the Great Lakes, with frontogenesis occurring as the theta-e gradient becomes well established within this slow-moving (if not stationary) frontal zone. In a favorable feed of gulf moisture, with precipitable water values getting up to around an inch and a quarter, there will be several rounds of rainfall across the region during the next few days. The first will occur from early to mid morning on Tuesday, as convergence at the nose of an 850mb wind max will help to force an area of moderate to possibly heavy rain showers. There is even the potential for some thunder, as models suggest some weak elevated instability (lifted from 850mb) moving through the Miami Valley and into central Ohio in the 10Z-15Z time frame Tuesday morning. This signal is also being picked up on WRF-ARW and HRRR projections. There may be a period during the afternoon where showers become more scattered and light in nature, but the front will be shifting southward going into Tuesday night, with near-surface convergence and upper divergence will combine to force another round of showers. For these two more favorable time periods, PoPs were put in the categorical range, with 100-percent chances expected for much of the CWA especially Tuesday evening into the night. Though this period sets up to be rather wet, widespread rainfall forecasts of an inch (or maybe two if you go out through the rest of the forecast beyond Tuesday) do not suggest that flooding will be a significant concern. The band of snow from a few days ago was considered, but much of this has already melted, especially given the dry conditions observed Sunday. It appears that any flooding concerns will probably be localized, perhaps if convective elements Tuesday morning line up in a favorable orientation to the flow. While not out of the question, the WRF-ARW and HRRR runs mentioned earlier would suggest this potential is higher over parts of Illinois and Indiana than it is in the ILN CWA. Though the amount of boundary layer mixing in the moistening environment is somewhat unclear, there will be the potential for some 25-30 knot southerly wind gusts on Tuesday afternoon. Despite the rain and clouds, the warm advection pattern will allow temperatures to easily reach the middle to upper 50s on Tuesday -- possibly even into the lower 60s in northern Kentucky. There should not be much movement on temperatures on Tuesday night, with fairly steady values in the 06Z-12Z time frame, and min temps generally in the lower to mid 50s. If the front is able to clear through the northern ILN counties before the night is up, temperatures will drop into the upper 40s there. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front will be oriented sw-ne through the region on Wednesday with an area of showers moving southeast during the day. While nw cwa should see rain end during the morning, southwest flow aloft will permit a continued stream of disturbances to cross over the Ohio Valley later in the day and overnight, necessitating some chance of showers through Thursday night. Forecast models maintain divergent solutions Friday onwards. The mean longwave trough over the central U.S. will determine the sensible weather at the surface for the extended. GFS is quick to push it through and has a westerly flow set up over the conus by 0z Saturday. European is Capped any precip chance beyond Friday at 50% given the polar opposites of the model solutions starting then. While some snow may mix in on Friday night if the European is correct, felt that this would be an outlier forecast and a warmer solution should be leaned towards. 1000-850 thicknesses are barely supportive of the snow mix as well, helping the decision to keep any precip rain during this time. Temps will be at or slightly above normal on Wed and Thurs and then drop down to just below climatological norms for the remainder of the forecast. Overnight lows will start out above normal Wed night and Thurs night, then drop below normal for the weekend and trend back to at or above normal early next week. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... H5 vort max lifting up the Ohio Valley is pushing an area of showers towards the tafs. Consensus of latest mesoscale models has the leading edge timed to CVG/LUK around 03Z and CMH/LCK around 06Z. Based on radar and models it looks to affect each taf site for about 3 hours. Kept prevailing conditions with this area VFR, but will monitor it in case vsbys and possibly cigs drop to MVFR. After this initial shot of showers go by, models drop ceilings to MVFR. They should remain MVFR for the rest of the period. Models bring in a steadier area of rain late tonight north of KDAY. They have a spread in their solutions as to exactly how far south this area will drop. Brought a few hours of TEMPO MVFR vsbys in the morning to the nrn TAFs, before going VCSH for the afternoon hours. Winds on Tuesday will turn to the south and become gusty up to 20-25 kts. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible at times into early Wednesday morning. MVFR ceilings may continue through Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Sites
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1036 PM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1036 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2018 There are portion of the far east that remain mostly clear this evening and this has lead to some adjustments to temperatures to handle this idea better. Otherwise, a weaker upper level front is progressing eastward this evening and rain showers continue to slowly work north and east. Updated POPs to better match the trends and felt like the HRRR TL had the best idea to lean toward overall. Also opted to make more minor updates to the grids to align better with the latest obs. UPDATE Issued at 739 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2018 Late afternoon satellite pictures did show some clearing in the east and this did allow temperatures to remain warmer this afternoon and early evening. This is likely being aided by downslope flow coming across the higher terrain. Given this did lower temperatures some in the far east, but think the clouds will help to mitigate these locations dropping too quickly through the evening and overnight. A 850mb front will progress closer to the region through the evening and we have been tracking some showers and isolated thunderstorms across western and central Kentucky. The best chances of showers will generally be north of the Hal Rogers Parkway, but the downslope flow could certainly eat away at some of the available moisture. Otherwise only minor adjustments were needed to deal with the latest obs and trends. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 313 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2018 Thinning clouds and some downsloping have allowed temperatures over the central part of the forecast area to rise a little higher than originally expected. As a warm front approaches from the west clouds will thicken back up tonight and there will be a chance for showers. As the front lifts across the area on Tuesday the shower chance will end from south to north. A better chance of showers will occur Tuesday night as low pressure moves from the mid MS valley into the OH valley and a cold front approaches the area. Temperatures will be above normal from tonight through Tuesday night, as south to southwest flow becomes established across the area. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 405 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2018 An amplified long wave pattern will be in place across the CONUS for the latter half of the work week. This will transition to zonal flow for the weekend, with further amplification into early next week. A broad trough will gradually move from the Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard. This will allow a surface cold front, with multiple waves of low pressure riding up along it, to bring soaking rains to the Ohio and Tennessee valleys Wednesday through Thursday. At least small chances of precipitation will linger across the region into the weekend and especially next week, as the pattern turns more progressive; however, there is lower confidence in the details this far out. Widespread showers will move in from the northwest Wednesday into Wednesday evening. The boundary will stall out across our area, with another more significant surge of moisture and lift moving in late Wednesday night and continuing through Thursday. QPF totals continue to vary from run to run, but in general, have come down somewhat across our area, especially the ECMWF. Deeper convection to our south will likely be a factor, and have continued to generalize the heavy rainfall threat in the HWO. Forecast confidence continues to be low for the latter half of the extended period, given the timing and evolution issues regarding the smaller scale features. In general, the first half of the weekend looks to be drier, and then precipitation chances ramp up into Monday. Overall, temperatures will average near to slightly above normal through the period, with a minor cool down into the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2018 VFR conditions will continue this TAF cycle as much of the lower clouds remains well to our west. A 850mb front is moving across the center part of Kentucky, with a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms moving northeast. The best chances of seeing a rain shower will be across northern parts of the eastern Kentucky and therefore did add -SHRA to JKL, SJS, and SYM. The only issue will be the downslope flow could eat away at some of the moisture as it tries to progress into the region. Given the weak winds at the surface and an increased LLJ tonight will most likely lead to increased wind shear across the region. Given these factors did keep LLWS mentioned in the TAFs later this evening into the overnight. We then see some decent mixing potential for Tuesday afternoon and this will provide the potential for 15 to 20 knot wind gust by tomorrow afternoon. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...DJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
746 PM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 357 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2018 Challenging fcst shaping up for tonight with regard to ptypes. Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a shortwave trof moving across the northern Rockies toward the northern Plains while downstream mid- level ridge is shifting toward the E Coast. The shortwave trof will swing across the Upper Lakes on Tue. In the sw flow currently over the central CONUS, pcpn has been lifting across MN today. Drier low- level southeasterly flow across Upper MI has held this pcpn off to the w so far this aftn. As upstream shortwave trof approaches, a band of strong isentropic ascent will shift across the area tonight. This isentropic ascent will last roughly 6hrs at each location, so looking at a roughly 6hr period of steadier pcpn. Main challenge is ptype as fcst soundings show thermal profile around 0C thru a deep layer from the sfc to at least 5kft. NAM has been on the colder side, suggesting more snow or mix of snow/rain. Bulk of other guidance is supportive of more of a rain scenario with some snow mixed in at times. In reality, differences are quite minor now, but of course, these minor differences have a big impact on ptype given the temp profile near 0C in the lower levels. It would appear the best potential of seeing some snow will be across the w and n central during the earlier stage of the pcpn period as evaporative cooling may be just enough to send the temp profile mostly to or slightly blo 0C. The nw fcst area has the best chc of pcpn remaining a snow to snow/rain mix. If any locations remain mostly snow, could see a couple of inches of sloppy/wet snow accumulation. As the isentropic ascent tails off overnight/Tue morning, models are in very good agreement in showing mid-level moisture departing, so a ptype change toward just -dz seems like a good bet before pcpn ends. Finally, there is the question of whether any of the rain/-dz may freeze on ground surfaces as air temps fall to around 33F. MI DOT weather sensor sites show sfc road temps rising way above freezing this aftn. Hoewver, there is probably some potential for liquid to freeze on some road surfaces later in the night as cold from farther blo aids sfc cooling. Best potential will be on those sections of road that are mostly shaded during the day. Of course, those lesser traveled roads that still have ice/hard compacted snow cover will be especially slippery with the addition of water. For now, will issue an sps regarding the potential since the Tue morning commute will be affected if roads do become slippery in spots. On Tue, patchy -dz over the w half will become confined to the higher terrain under upsloping wnw winds before ending by aftn. Over the e, lingering -shra early will transition to some -dz before ending mid aftn. Fairly aggressive drying should gradually clear out lingering low clouds from nw to se during the aftn. Clouds will hang on longest over the interior w high terrain and over e. CAA behind the trof is weak, and combined with a warmer start to the day, temps well away from Lake Superior will rise well into the 40s, and maybe topping 50F s central. Temps will be no higher than the low/mid 30s where w to wnw winds are onshore from Lake Superior. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 326 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2018 Expect the weather through the middle/end of the work week to remain active with multiple shortwaves embedded withing longwave troughing moving across the region. We will get a taste of spring on Wednesday, but with a cold front dropping southeast across Upper Michigan Wednesday night, and then another one on Friday, expect a cooling trend through the end of the work week. Should see precipitation, mostly in the form of snow, develop as these cold fronts push through the area mostly out west on Wednesday night, and then across much of the area on Friday. Ahead of and behind these cold fronts, expect breezy conditions to develop, especially on Wednesday through Thursday morning. The stronger surge of cold air advection will follow the second cold front, and push temperatures down around freezing during the day and teens to lower 20s during the overnight hours this weekend. This colder air should be cold enough to foster lake effect snow near Lake Superior over the weekend into early next week. Right now it appears that areas across the northwest wind snow belts will have the best chance at seeing this lake effect snow, but will need to monitor how ice cover and 850mb flow evolves. The medium range models continue to hint towards the potential of a system tracking across the Great Lakes over the weekend. With the GFS being the faster and further north with the deeper moisture compared to the ECMWF and Canadian, confidence is not high in how things will unfold Friday night through Saturday night. Based on the track of the system in the GFS and forecast soundings showing deep lift through the DGZ, the GFS would favor a system snow event across the area Friday night into Saturday; whereas, the other extreme is the Canadian, which is much further south with the deeper moisture and would favor chances for impactful wintry precipitation well south of Upper Michigan. Given the uncertainty, opted to not make any adjustments to the blend through the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 745 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2018 VFR conditions will linger through much of this evening. However, an approaching trough will spread pcpn across the area tonight with cigs/vis deteriorating to IFR to LIFR. There is uncertainty with the pcpn type due to temps in the lowest several thousand feet being near freezing. KCMX has best chance of seeing more snow than rain with KIWD/KSAW probably seeing more rain than snow. In addition, as sfc temps fall to near freezing, there may be some concerns with ice development on runways. The pcpn will diminish overnight though some -dz/-fzdz may linger into the morning at KIWD/KCMX due to upslope wnw winds following the trough passage. Clouds will clear out with improvement to VFR from w to e Tuesday aftn. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 357 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2018 Ahead of an approaching low pres trof, winds will mostly be southeasterly at 20-30kt over the e half of Lake Superior thru early Tue morning. Over western Lake Superior, e to ne winds will be lighter. Passage of the trof late tonight thru mid aftn on Tue will switch winds to a westerly direction at around 20kt thru Tue evening. Winds will be mostly under 20kt on Wed, then passage of a cold front Wed night will bring nw winds upwards of 20-30kt into Thu morning, strongest over the e half of the lake. Winds will then diminish. A trof will pass across the area Thu night/Fri morning, but winds should remain mostly under 20kt for Fri and then on into Sat. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rolfson LONG TERM...Ritzman AVIATION...JLB MARINE...Rolfson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1046 PM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Warm front tonight into Tuesday. A front with waves of low pressure meanders nearby Wednesday and Thursday, then finally pushing through on Friday. Brief high pressure next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1040 PM Monday...Refined the timing of PoP based on Radar and HRRR trends. Very dry air still over the region with dew points in the low 20s, so have decided to keep PoP below categorical. Have contemplated putting out a winter weather advisory for the Eastern Mountains for a brief period of freezing rain, but still some uncertainty when precipitation will arrive. If precip arrives before sunrise, there may be some slick spots on untreated roads and overpasses/bridges. Will continue to highlight in HWO for now and midshift will monitor to see if precipitation will make into the area before temperatures start to climb tomorrow morning. As of 740 PM Monday... Slowed down the arrival of rainfall a bit, but have also increased PoP for when the rain eventually makes it here. Based on current Radar and Meso Model Trends, it looks like rain will enter Western CWA between 03Z to 04Z. As of 155 PM Monday... A warm front, extending from low pressure over the upper Mississippi Valley, will move across the region tonight. This will generate some light rain showers over eastern Ohio and northern West Virginia. The pressure gradient, between the front and high pressure exiting off to the east, will keep winds up tonight, this will keep temperatures on the warm side, especially south and west. Temperatures in the protected Northern Mountain valleys will be cold enough for any light rain to start out as freezing rain early tomorrow morning. This freezing rain will be short lived as temperatures will quickly rise above freezing shortly after daybreak. Generally went with a blend of guidance throughout. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Monday... The area is solidly in the warm sector to start the period Tuesday night with a warm front North of the area. The frontal zone extends down the western Middle-Ohio Valley and into KY with rain showers possible everywhere along it. A decaying wave moving along the boundary will bring showers across the area for Wednesday. In spite of weakening forcing, 1.3" PWAT indicates a very moist atmosphere - so, any showers that do form have the potential to contain moderate rainfall rates. Heavy showers are possible if forcing is better realized. For now, have up to .75" rainfall possible during the day Wednesday although locally higher amounts are likely with training. Anomalously high PWAT continues through the duration of this system. The wave that ultimately kicks this system out toward the East spurs cyclogenesis out of the Ark-La-Tex region with a matured surface low moving up the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys Wednesday through Thursday. Long range models have (finally) come into better agreement with this low tracking up the Ohio River in our area during the day Thursday. With it, heavy rain is possible - another thing to keep an eye out for is severe weather. Particularly, low-level wind shifts near the low and bulk shear around 60 kts with a strong jet aloft certainly suggests ample dynamics - however instability will be limited with warm air through the column. By the time the boundary moves on toward the East, up to 2" of rainfall are possible in isolated areas. In general, highest amounts will be toward the West and South - however wave placement along this boundary will ultimately dictate the corridors of heaviest rainfall. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 355 PM Monday... Due to divergent model guidance during the long term, particularly for Saturday onward, have opted to stick with a general blend of long-range models for precipitation and temperatures. Northwest flow generally cools the region down after the passage of the aforementioned front in the short-term. Long- range models indicate varying vort and jet maxima bringing brief periods of rain showers in otherwise weak high pressure through the weekend but at differing times and as a result of features that are present in some models but not others. Flow aloft shifts zonal and eventually southwesterly to start the work week implying a warming trend - but again, major long- range models differ on the timing with this. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 735 PM Monday... A warm front will move across the region tonight. Clouds will be on the increase as well as some rainfall across the region. At this time, not expecting IFR conditions with this feature, but MVFR conditions will be possible, especially in rainshowers. Across the mountains there is a chance for some icing early tomorrow morning, although confidence is low whether or not any freezing rain will occur at EKN. If it does occur, it will likely only be for a brief period during the morning hours. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: medium to High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR conditions with precipitation may vary late tonight and through the day on Tuesday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 03/27/18 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L M M AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions foreseen. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/26/MC NEAR TERM...JS/MPK SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...MPK