Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/23/18
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
512 PM MDT Thu Mar 22 2018
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Southwest to westerly flow aloft, strengthening considerably aft
23/12Z as upper trough passes just to the north of NM. Return flow
may bring some low clouds to far se NM aft 23/07Z, with HRRR most
agressive with the northern extent of this moisture reaching from
KROW to near KCVS around 23/12Z. Potential for MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys
not reflected in the KROW TAF at this time as other models not so
bullish. Otherwise, mts over nw and north central NM to become
occasionally obscured aft 23/10Z with scattered -shrasn. Winds
increase at the same time and shift to w-nwly as a cold front races
from west to east over NM. Gusts to around 45kt possible over ern NM
aft 23/18Z with lcl reduced vsbys in bldu.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MDT Thu Mar 22 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
The warming continues today, with well above normal temperatures and
a number of eastern plains locales challenging daily records. Clouds
will spread across the state tonight and help to moderate
temperatures Friday, except across the eastern plains where strong
downslope winds will send temperatures soaring to near daily records
once again at locales such as Roswell, Portales and Clovis. Strong
winds will spread over the area Friday and result in very windy
conditions across much of central and eastern New Mexico Friday
afternoon and early evening. A stronger Pacific system will approach
Sunday and create strong winds across much of the area once again.
This system will move slowly east across the region into mid week and
combine with a backdoor cold front to produce good chances for
precipitation, peaking Wednesday and Wednesday night. Below normal
temperatures will follow behind the backdoor cold front Tuesday
through Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The warming trend continues with temperatures soaring well above
normal this afternoon, especially across the eastern plains where
downslope winds are helping highs rise to near daily record values.
Clouds moving in from the Pacific will blanket the area tonight, with
well above normal lows forecast and generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer
than last night.
A shortwave trough, currently moving across central/southern
California, will race east overnight and across New Mexico tomorrow
bringing a mix of clouds, showers and strong winds. Showers will
focus across the northwest high terrain and will likely provide
several inches of snowfall to the peaks and west-facing slopes of the
Tusas Mountains. Strong winds will develop quickly Friday morning
across much of central and eastern New Mexico and a Wind Advisory has
been issued for much of that area. Clouds will help to moderate
temperatures Friday, but stronger downslope winds will send highs
soaring once again across the east central and southeast plains
Friday afternoon where daily record values will be challenged.
Although less than Friday, breezy to windy conditions are forecast
Saturday in response to a stronger Pacific system approaching from
the west coast.
The forecast from Sunday through the middle of next week will be
focused on the approach and progression of a deep upper low and the
passage of a backdoor cold front. As the upper low approaches from
over the Great Basin on Sunday, strong winds will spread over the
state and a lee side trough will deepen to near 995mb over southeast
Colorado. Chances for blowing dust to be an impact on Sunday are on
the uptrend, with warm and unstable conditions expected. Temperatures
will trend down from early to mid week, especially after the backdoor
cold front pushes through on Tuesday and precipitation ramps-up. The
12Z operational runs of the ECMWF and GFS compare favorably through
12Z Tuesday, then begin to depart with the handling/progression of
the upper low. The GFS has been consistently wetter and has support
from both the GFS ensemble mean and the Canadian. Our forecast is
titled toward the wetter GFS for Tuesday through Wednesday night for
now given the run-to-run consistency and aforementioned other model
support. If the 12Z GFS works-out we`ll be looking at significant
snowfall in the mountains, especially along the east slopes of the
central mountain chain thanks to upslope enhancement. In addition,
the timing of the backdoor cold front into the Middle Rio Grande
Valley Tuesday night combined with the position of the upper low
over southeast Arizona would be favorable for one of the stronger
east wind events we`ve seen here in quite some time. The 12Z GFS MOS
for KABQ was alarmingly high with the wind speeds for Tuesday night
and Wednesday, but we`ve seen this issue in the past with the
seasonal change to the warm season MOS equations.
11
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...Critical fire weather conditions across the eastern plains Friday
through Monday. Red Flag Warning is in effect for Friday afternoon
into the evening...
An upper level disturbance will move across northern AZ tonight and
northern NM Friday. This system will bring light rain and high
elevation snow to northwestern and north central NM tonight through
Friday. Wetting precipitation is likely in the Northwest Mountains,
especially in the Tusas Mountains, where 3 to 6 inches of of snow
will fall. A strong Pacific cold front will move into western NM
around dawn and then move rapidly eastward to the NM/TX border by
late afternoon Friday. West to northwest winds behind the front will
gust to around 40 mph along and behind the front west of the central
mountains Friday morning through mid afternoon. To the east of the
central mountains west to southwest winds will range from 30 to 40
mph with gusts up to 55 mph Friday afternoon and early evening.
Critical relative humidity in FWZ104, FWZ107 and FWZ108 combined
with very warm temperatures and strong winds will produce critical
fire weather conditions Friday afternoon through early evening. A
Red Flag Warning for these fire weather zones is in effect.
Ventilation will be excellent across the entire area Friday.
The upper level flow will turn to the southwest Saturday. Stronger
southwest winds aloft Saturday afternoon will mix down to the
surface from the south central plains north northeastward to the
northeast highlands and northeast plains. The Haines index across
these areas has trended upward with the forecast issuance, and
afternoon relative humidity east of the central mountains will range
from 10 to 15 percent. Critical fire weather conditions are likely
from the central plains northeastward across the northeast plains
Saturday afternoon and early evening. Ventilation will once again be
excellent Saturday.
Deepening surface low pressure in eastern CO Sunday and a strong
band of 40 to 50 mph winds aloft Sunday will produce 20 to 30 mph
winds with gusts above 40 mph at times across areas east of the
central mountains. Drier air will also move into northern and
central NM Sunday with afternoon relative humidity falling into the
single digits across much of the area. Critical fire weather
conditions appear likely Sunday afternoon and early evening across
the eastern plains and adjacent highlands. Continued dry surface
conditions and breezy southwest winds Monday across the eastern
plains will continue the threat for critical fire weather
conditions. Excellent ventilation is likely Sunday and
Monday afternoons.
A storm system currently off the southern British Columbia coast is
forecast by the models to gradually move southward and into AZ by
early Tuesday. This storm system will have the potential to bring
wetting precipitation to northern and central NM Monday night
through Thursday.
28
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for the following
zones... NMZ104-108.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Friday for the following
zones... NMZ513>515-523-526>535-539-540.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
746 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018
The forecast was updated to account for the latest cloud trends.
We increased clouds for several more hours over far northern
Minnesota and over southwest half to third of the Northland. Drier
air will gradually work it`s way across the area causing the
clouds to diminish. There is still a concern some lake induced
clouds will develop along the North Shore down into far western
Lake Superior as the low level flow becomes more easterly tonight.
Delta-T values are favorable for some cloud and possible light
snow but the airmass is quite dry. The RAP continues to indicate
very dry air over the lake through the night and into Friday
morning. We`ll monitor through the night for any possible
cloud development.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018
Surface and upper level ridging will cover the forecast area
tonight and Friday. A mix of clouds and sun are affecting a large
portion of the region this afternoon. This is due to an upper
level vorticity maxima sliding overhead this afternoon. Look for
the clouds to dissipate later this evening as the vort max
departs. Clouds will be on the increase Friday afternoon ahead of
the system that will affect a portion of the Northland Friday
night and Saturday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018
Upper level ridging remains over the forecast area Friday evening.
However, an approaching upper long wave trof, with embedded
pieces of vorticity, will move into western Minnesota late Friday
night and linger Saturday morning. Meanwhile, its associated
surface low will be moving through Kansas Friday night and into
Missouri Saturday before dissolving. This combination will result
in some mixed precipitation to affect the western third of the
forecast area as early as late Friday afternoon through Saturday
morning. Expect a rain/snow mix initially, changing to all snow
overnight through Saturday morning before ending. The
precipitation may reach as far east as the I35 corridor from Moose
Lake to Rush City, before ending in all areas by Saturday
afternoon. The greatest likelihood for snow accumulation will
roughly be in the Brainerd Lakes region northwest to near Walker,
where 1 to 3 inches of snow is probable. The upper trof washes out
by Saturday afternoon allowing ridging to rebuild across the
region. The ridging prevails through Sunday. Sunday night through
Tuesday finds the region under the influence of a southwest flow
aloft as a long wave trof moves ashore on the West Coast, reaching
the western Great Lakes Tuesday. In response, a surface low
develops in the Four Corners and moves into the Texas panhandle
by Tuesday. An inverted trof from this low will reach the
Northland Sunday night and affect the area through Tuesday. Look
for another mixed precipitation event during this timeframe.
Current thinking is rain and snow, as is typical with Spring
systems. Will hold off on mentioning any amounts for now as
confidence is low.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018
An area of high pressure over the region will provide VFR
conditions across most of the region tonight into Friday. The low
level flow will become easterly overnight and drier air will cause
clouds over far northern Minnesota and western portions of the
Northland to diminish overnight. The clouds over the Borderland
will still move south for a time this evening, reaching KHIB, but
will then diminish overnight.
A long fetch across Lake Superior will develop overnight as winds
veer but the RAP shows the low level airmass remains quite dry so
widespread lake induced clouds look unlikely at this time. Some
MVFR clouds off of Lake Superior will be possible though late
tonight and some flurries will be possible if they do develop.
Easterly winds will increase through the day Friday and forecast soundings
show mixing to at least 850MB will develop leading to gusty winds
by afternoon for much of the area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 12 35 20 35 / 0 0 10 0
INL 15 41 19 39 / 0 0 10 0
BRD 18 41 26 39 / 0 10 60 40
HYR 11 42 22 41 / 0 0 10 0
ASX 9 37 20 38 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 10 PM CDT Saturday for
LSZ144>147.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 4 AM CDT Sunday for
LSZ141>143.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Melde
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...Melde
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
949 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018
Still have mostly cloudy skies over the area, but there are a few
holes here and there. There are also a few stations reporting fog,
but it is still in the 3 to 5 mile range, which is not too bad
yet.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018
Stratocu breaking up over NW MN and parts of E ND this aftn and
trend should be some clearing thru the evening, esp east of the
Red River. West of the Red River the persistent low level
moisture should allow low clouds and some fog to reform. In
clearer areas east of the Red River, patchy fog is also possible.
Focus is then on Friday system and arrival timing. Short range
models in good agreement on timing of snow eastward and used them
to time snow arrival in hourly pop/wx grids into Friday night. The
HRRR and RAP are a bit slower than the blended conshort and ECAM
guidance used for pops however. Idea is for snow to move into the
western fcst area mid morning....reach parts of the Red River
valley in the mid to late afternoon. The band of snow will be
orientated northwest to southeast. Temps ahead of the snow will be
above freezing but will fall to or just below freezing as the snow
moves in. Thus anticipating little liquid precipitation. Snow
rates should be quite high for several hours, esp in central ND
Minot-Devils Lake-Jamestown-Valley city region Friday aftn due to
good overlay of low/mid level frontogenesis and upper level
lift. Snow rates of 1-2 inch per hour psbl in this area where snow
totals of 8 or more has the highest chance of occurring.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018
How far east will the heavier snow get before the
lift/frontogenesis transitions a bit more into southern Minnesota
Friday night. Northern Red River valley should see several inches
but could possibly get more if the lift remains strong. For now
went advisory mid/nrn valley. Snow will taper off western fcst
area after midnight Friday night and could be replaced by some
freezing drizzle as low level moisture remains but main seeding
clouds move out. Warnings/advisories and snow amounts coordinated
well among the neighbors for this event.
Lingering snow and rain will be possible across far southeastern ND
and west central MN early Saturday morning. As the bulk of the
precipitation exits the region to the south and east through mid day
Saturday, dry air aloft could cause the loss of ice nuclei over
eastern ND. As this occurs areas of freezing drizzle will be
possible. However, 10-15 mph southeast winds at the surface may mix
and dry out the near surface layer, so impacts from freezing drizzle
will likely be minimal.
A second shortwave embedded in southwesterly flow aloft is expected
to move into southern Canada on Sunday. This shortwave will bring a
second round of snow to eastern North Dakota and much of
northwestern and north central Minnesota. Snow is expected along
and north of the Highway 2 corridor Sunday afternoon and evening.
Further south, warm afternoon temperatures near and just above the
surface will support a mixed precipitation type of rain and snow.
The active pattern continues for Monday as a central Plains low
moves eastward to our south. A daytime rain/snow mix and overnight
snow will be possible across the eastern ND and northwest MN region
Monday through late Monday night with the best chance for precip
south of Highway 2 and across far southeast ND and western MN.
Although there is low confidence in exact amounts, snowfall
accumulation Sunday through Monday night will not be as high as the
Friday storm system. However, as snowfall melts during the day and
refreezes at night, along with light snowfall accumulation, roadways
may be slick and hazardous during the morning and late evening hours
during this period.
Quiet weather will return mid week as a surface high builds over the
northern Plains. Afternoon temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s
will help begin to melt weekend snowfall.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018
Other than KDVL, ceilings have risen into the VFR range at the
other TAF sites. Think this will remain the case for tonight into
early Friday, when ceilings begin to lower again with the approach
of the next winter storm system. There may be some patchy fog
around again, but best chances may be at KDVL or KGFK. Overall
confidence pretty low in that right now. Most of the latest model
guidance holds off on any snow until around 20-21z Friday at
KDVL/KFAR and an hour or two later at KGFK.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday
for NDZ007-008-016-027-030-054.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday for
NDZ026-029-039-053.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday for
NDZ006-014-015-024-028-038-049-052.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday
for MNZ001-002-027-031.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday for
MNZ003-029-030-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...AM/Riddle
AVIATION...Godon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1103 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1055 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2018
Skies remain mostly clear to clear under high pressure with
decoupling in valleys leading to some readings near 30 if not the
upper 20s at this time with mid 30s on the ridges. These readings
indicate that the lower min T updated to this evening appears to
be on target.
Uncertainty remains with the system this weekend as the 0Z
guidance begins to roll in. Further analysis of the previous data
seems to point toward a sharper temperature gradient from north or
northeast to southwest with Fleming, Rowan, and Elliott counties
remaining a category or so lower than blended model guidance and
have followed these trends for temperatures on Saturday. 18Z GFS
guidance and new 0Z NAM sounding point toward the column remaining
the coldest in these counties. Latest trends seem to be toward a
bit more accumulation in those locations and these counties were
highlighted a refreshed SPS. As the remainder of the 0Z guidance
comes in a better determination can be made on what headlines may
be needed for portions of the region.
UPDATE Issued at 845 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2018
Hourly temperatures have been freshened up based on observation
trends. High pressure should bring mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies tonight. MOS guidance points toward colder valley
temperatures in the northeast and east compared to the previous
forecast while LAMP guidance points toward ridgetop locations
also a degree or two colder. At this time, have trended
temperatures down a degree or two across the board with no other
changes at this time.
Lots of uncertainty remain with the system to affect the region
late Friday night into Saturday especially with the thermal
profile in the lowest few thousand feet. Model consensus is for
the coldest profiles near 0C at the sfc and for several thousand
feet aloft over Fleming, Rowan, and Elliott counties. The NAM has
quicker warming aloft associated with the low level jet which
would lead to melting and transfer of warmer air to the surface
quicker. The GFS is colder, especially over northern Fleming
County and this seems to be the most probable location for a
couple of inches of accumulation. Whatever does fall will be
battling rather warm ground and even limited solar insolation from
late March sun should help inch temperatures above freezing in
all locations by Saturday afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 340 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2018
19z sfc analysis shows high pressure building more effectively
into eastern Kentucky. This is helping to settle the winds some
after a time of gustiness following the breaking of the inversion
early in the afternoon. Additionally, the high is helping to keep
the cu to a minimum out there - mainly found in the far east.
With ample sunshine temperatures have climbed into the low to mid
40s while dewpoints remain in the low to mid 20s. The latest
satellite images shows the substantial erosion of any snow cover
due to the warmer temps and late March sun.
The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast. They all depict full-latitude, strong
ridging through the High Plains at the start of the period with
Kentucky in the midst of fast northwest flow. This ridge does
break down quickly as it attempts to come east but runs into a
blocking closed low trough centered over New England. This will
allow more Pacific energy and moisture to stream through the Upper
Midwest and then down southeast into Kentucky for late Friday into
Saturday morning. The core of this energy will be strong enough to
buckle the ridge over the Central Plains Saturday morning - the
NAM is strongest with this and actually starts to close off a mid
level low while the other models maintain open waves. This all
slides southeast into the JKL area on Saturday. Given the model
agreement have favored general model blend with a strong lean
toward the details from the higher resolution NAM12 and HRRR
throughout the period.
Sensible weather will feature high pressure moving over the state
tonight and off to the east on Friday. Expect a ridge to valley
temperature split to develop tonight with widespread frost
through the area and some patchy fog along the river valleys.
High clouds will slowly arrive on Friday from the west as a warm
front starts to take shape to the southwest. This boundary lifts
into eastern Kentucky later Friday night with ample moisture and
lift to generate pcpn through the CWA as it moves from southwest
to northeast with time. The cold air will be tough to shift out of
the way in the northeast parts of the area along with wet bulbing
likely to lower temps further at onset of the pcpn. Accordingly,
expect the pcpn to move in as snow generally north and east of a
line from Irvine to Whitesburg. Gradually this line will shift
northeast through the night with a mix with and switch to rain
anticipated for much of the area by 12z Saturday. Locations
generally along and north of Interstate 64 will likely stay as
snow and an inch or so of accumulation will be possible by sunrise
Saturday. The snow will continue into the morning in our far
northern areas - but likely remain below warning criteria due to
low snow ratios. For that reason will keep Fleming and Rowan out
of the Winter Storm Watches current in effect to the north and
instead issue an SPS highlighting this concern in addition to
mentions in the HWO.
Started with the CONSShort and ShortBlend for the bulk of the
grids in the short term portion of the forecast. Did make some
significant adjustments to temperatures tonight for relative
elevation differences - especially northeast. As for PoPs, beefed
them up in the south quicker Friday night into Saturday morning
closest to the NAM12 scenario.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2018
The extended will feature a period of colder weather and the
potential for accumulating snowfall to start things off, before
transitioning into a much warmer weather pattern that will feature
chances of rain the first few days of the new work week. An area of
low pressure is forecast to move southeastward and across the Ohio
and eastern Tennessee valley regions Friday night into Saturday.
Rain will quickly transition to a rain snow mix and then to all snow
Friday night. The snow is expected to move across northern portions
of eastern Kentucky through late Saturday morning, before change
back over to all rain by the afternoon. Some accumulations of snow
will be possible, but there is some uncertainty at this time as to
how much snow we will see. The current pattern does suggest that the
bulk of any accumulating snow would occur north of the Hal Rogers
Parkway. As the area of low pressure moves across the area during
the warmer part of the day on Saturday, it may even trigger a few
thunderstorms from the Tennessee border northward to the Hal Rogers
Parkway, where warmer temperatures and a bit of elevated instability
may exist. The rain should finally begin to taper of late Saturday
night, as the low pulls away to the southeast. We will likely see
some snow mixing with the rain Saturday night as well, as colder air
makes a weak southward push. Little if any accumulation is expected
from this second batch of snow. Any remaining precipitation should
move out of eastern Kentucky by early Saturday evening.
Temperatures are expected to be below normal over the weekend as a
trough of low pressure aloft keeps colder air in place over the
region. Once this trough moves away, as a ridge of high pressure
settles over the region. An area of low pressure will also be in
play to during this time, and could bring a few rain showers to the
western portions of our forecast area, but isolated to scattered at
best on Monday and part of Tuesday. Better chances of rain will be
in the offing Wednesday and Wednesday night, as a frontal boundary
moves across the area. This boundary may even stall for a bit,
bringing enhanced rain chances to eastern Kentucky. Southerly flow
associated with this front, and the ridge that will temporarily set
up across the area in the days before the front arrives, will also
bring warm air from the Gulf of Mexico into the region. This will
allow temperatures to warm into the upper 50s to perhaps 60 on
Monday, and into the 60s the rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2018
High pressure at the surface and northwest flow aloft is expected
through the period. Some mid level clouds are expected in the
northwest flow tonight with an increase in low and mid level
moisture after 12Z leading to some thickening and lowering cloud
bases ahead of a warm front. Some light rain could reach the Lake
Cumberland region including near KSME by the end of the period.
However, MVFR is expected to prevail throughout the period with
light winds.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP