Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/17/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1000 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018
Made some minor adjustments to overnight clouds and temps.
In addition, raised PoPs slightly across the North Central TX
I-35 corridor for late tomorrow afternoon, as short-term models
seem increasingly bullish on convective development in this area
after 21z. One factor that may impede this scenario, however, is
the potential development of a large stratiform precip shield that
the HRRR (and to an extent, the 18z and 00z 3km NAM) seem to be
advertising along the western edge of our forecast area by 18-19z.
If this materializes - due likely to more synoptic-scale ascent
than currently anticipated - this could contaminate the convective
environment for additional storms across the DFW and I-35
corridor. Even so, this shield should increase the chances for at
least light rain across the aformentioned area. Rain chances may
need to be increased further across the central and northeast
zones for Saturday night/Sunday morning as this lift and moisture
translates eastward. The midnight shift will take a closer look
at this issue.
.AVIATION... /Issued 734 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018/
Key forecast challenges with this package include the timing and
persistence of the frontal boundary into the DFW area tomorrow
morning, the northward extent of stratus into Central Texas
overnight, and the potential development of thunderstorms into the
I-20 corridor by afternoon.
VFR conditions should prevail across North Texas through the
overnight hours. An expansive stratus deck at around FL012 will
push northward into the Waco area, however, by 11z, and will
probably hold short just prior to affecting the DFW-area TAF
sites. A brief period of IFR cigs may also impact KACT, before
conditions lift into MVFR, then VFR categories by midday.
A cold front will drop southward through Oklahoma overnight, and
reach KDFW and adjacent TAF sites by 10-12z. Winds will swing
around from a southwesterly direction to a light north-
northeasterly direction in the wake of this FROPA. There`s a lot
of uncertainty about the future intentions of this boundary once
it passes south of KDFW. Continued the previous forecast trend of
bringing this boundary back north of this TAF site by 16-17z, with
a shift to southeast winds continuing from this point onward
through the afternoon. Some model guidance, however, suggests that
the boundary will remain south of I-20 well into the afternoon,
which would keep KDFW in northerly flow for a much longer period.
Goes without saying that there`s not an abundance of confidence in
the wind forecast within the D10 corridor for the daytime hours
While there isn`t an abundance of forcing for ascent, there will
be enough convergence and instability near and to the south of
the front to trigger at least isolated TSRA west of the I-35
corridor by early afternoon. Believe some of this activity will
work eastward into the DFW-area TAF sites by late afternoon, and
reflected this with a VCTS in the KDFW TAF by 23z.
.LONG TERM... /Issued 350 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018/
/Saturday through Friday/
A cold front is forecasted to extend near a Paris to Eastland line
at 7 AM Saturday. As a surface low moves east into the Ohio River
Valley, this front should move to south of the I-20 corridor
before becoming quasi-stationary. Meanwhile a surface low that is
forecasted to be west of San Angelo at 7 AM Saturday should move
east-northeast to near southwest of Glen Rose by 7 PM Saturday
with a surface low extended southwest from the low to near
Lampasas. The forecast hodographs indicate the potential for
splitting supercells. During the late afternoon into Saturday
evening, large hail and damaging winds will be possible along and
south of the frontal boundary and as the strong move to the north
of the front, the threat should come more in the way of large
hail. It will be warm again Saturday with highs expected to
range from the lower 50s northwest to the mid 80s south.
The frontal boundary will lift north Saturday night ahead of an
advancing shortwave. The best chances of showers and
thunderstorms will shift mainly to the east of I-35 after midnight
Saturday night with a possible round of elevated convection
developing across the northeastern zones in an area of strong lift
along and north of the frontal boundary. Locally heavy rain and
marginally severe hail will be possible with these storms.
Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s northwest to the mid
A Pacific cold front will enter the western part of the forecast
area by midday Sunday. There will be the potential for severe
storms along and east of the I-35 corridor ahead of this feature.
There is still some questions given the cloud cover and the cap,
but if the storms develop, there will be sufficient instability
and shear for large hail, damaging winds and even a tornado to two
- especially east of I-35 and north of I-20. There will be an
elevated fire weather threat across the western zones Sunday
afternoon where relative humidities will fall into the teens and
20s and winds will become southwesterly at 15 to 20 mph behind the
front. Highs Sunday will range from around 70 degrees northeast
to the mid 80s southwest.
Rain chances will linger into Sunday night mainly east of I-35.
It will be cooler with overnight lows in the 50s. As the
aforementioned Pacific cold front progresses through the rest of
North and Central Texas overnight into Monday morning, winds will
become west and then northwesterly. These winds will bring drier
air into the region. Despite the cooler temperatures, with highs
expected to be still above normal in the 70s, relative humidities
will fall into the 20-30 percent range across much of the region.
Near critical fire weather conditions are possible mainly west of
I-35 and depending on the amount and areal of coverage of rain,
elevated fire weather conditions are possible across much of the
rest of the forecast area.
We will come under northwesterly flow aloft early in the week as
an upper level low moves east from the Central Plains across the
Ohio River Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States. Meanwhile, upper
level ridging will build across the Rockies. Dry weather is
expected for much of the work week though we may see some low
rain chances by Friday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 58 82 61 82 55 / 5 50 50 40 10
Waco 58 83 63 84 54 / 5 40 30 30 20
Paris 53 75 57 70 53 / 5 10 50 70 40
Denton 50 77 57 79 53 / 5 40 50 30 10
McKinney 52 78 58 76 53 / 5 40 50 50 20
Dallas 58 81 63 80 56 / 5 50 50 40 20
Terrell 56 79 62 78 53 / 5 40 50 50 20
Corsicana 61 82 64 80 55 / 5 40 50 50 30
Temple 60 83 64 83 55 / 5 40 30 30 20
Mineral Wells 50 79 56 83 51 / 5 40 30 20 10
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
907 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018
Issued at 858 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018
Strong, but vertically stacked, system is slowly tracking east
from the central Plains. Fairly strong elevated WAA/isentropic
lift to the east of the system is helping to produce a band of
showers & isolated thunderstorms across central and southeast
Illinois this evening. Dry low-level air mass has been slow to
erode today, aided by dry easterly low-level flow to the north of
the approaching system. Top-down moistening is gradually taking
place, allowing some heavier rainfall to develop. However, the dry
layer is also producing enough evaporative cooling in localized
spots to produce sleet. The steadier band of rainfall will move
out of the area by shortly after midnight, although another band
is likely to spread southeast down the vicinity of the I-74
corridor as the system moves through. This precipitation should
also fall mostly in the form of rain, but a few hours of near
freezing temperatures across the far northern portion of the
forecast area late tonight/early Saturday could produce a light
glaze of freezing rain. However, the icing would most likely
impact elevated surfaces due to the milder soil/surface
temperatures that developed over the past few days.
Have adjusted forecast for the latest trends, primarily to fine-
tune PoP trends.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018
Tonight, the developing low to the SW edges closer to the region.
The precip so far has been eroded by a couple of dry layers aloft
per the 12z ILX soundings. Showers will likely continue to spread
into the evening hours across Central IL. Cloud cover associated
with the approaching precip will limit the diurnal swing of temps
to the overnight lows. Even so, the temperatures after midnight, mainly
north of a line from Galesburg to Danville, will drop to near or
just below freezing. HRRR shows a break in the first round of
precip for a few hours after midnight, then develops a secondary
line of showers moving in around dawn. The chances for wintry mix
are mostly confined to the extreme northern portions of Stark,
Marshall, Woodford, Mclean, and Vermilion after midnight...with
another chance for some closer to the 0600-0800L time frame. Early
morning traveling/commute should use caution along and north of
these areas. As to precip type, the warm nose above the 3000-4000
ft in the sounding will melt any crystals introduced above.
However, the NAM has a deeper layer of freezing temps below that
to about 1000 ft, leaning towards sleet. GFS is a bit warmer...and
both models are right at the freezing mark at the surface. A
troublesome forecast...but cannot rule out the threat in the
northern portions of ILX. Most of Central IL will see a cold rain,
with some risk for thunder, mainly in the south and southeast.
Tomorrow, showers will likely continue through the day until the
surface low moves out of the region.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018
Weak ridging moves back into place through the remainder of the
weekend. Temps Saturday will drop into the 40s...but rebound to
the 50s on Sunday with light SE winds. Overnight Sunday into
Monday...lows drop only to the low to mid 40s as increasing clouds
once again inhibit cooling in the overnight hours. Next system
for Monday/Monday night is still a bit problematic for track, with
the GFS now trending north of ECMWF which is holding to a more
southerly track. Rain for Monday and Monday night is expected,
before changing over to snow on its departure to the east on
Tuesday. Northerly extent of the precip will be the question mark
with the track for the most part. Models suggesting that this
wave will shift us back to a busier and more progressive
northwesterly flow pattern aloft. The next storm is taking shape
going into next weekend, with precip starting on Fri.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018
A band of showers will rotate northeast across the central
Illinois terminals this evening and possibly into the early
overnight hours. Then, after a lull in the precipitation threat,
additional showers may impact mainly KPIA, KBMI, and KCMI late
tonight/Saturday morning. There is a chance some of this second
round of rainfall may fall with freezing temperatures for a few
hours, posing a light icing risk.
A dry air mass has limited the rainfall reaching the ground so
far, and kept CIGS/VSBYS high. However, expect the lower levels to
eventually saturate over the next few hours with rain becoming
somewhat heavier and low-end MVFR or possibly IFR conditions
developing into Saturday.
Easterly winds will prevail for much of the night. However, they
will trend more northeast as the system producing the
precipitation shifts off to the east.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
858 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018
Issued at 855 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018
A weakening surface low was spinning over eastern Kansas this
evening, with an arc of showers and thunderstorms along the occluded
front in eastern Missouri. Dry, easterly flow prevailed north of the
warm front draped across Tennessee. This dry air will keep the rain
at bay until 06z. That warm front is still forecast to lift north
overnight. The band of showers and likely a few thunderstorms will
push west to east across central KY/southern IN between 06-11z.
Latest RAP soundings do show 200-300 J/kg MUCAPE for a 2-hour window
for most locations. A low-level inversion will keep any storms
.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018
Afternoon satellite imagery shows a large arcing band of cloudiness
from the upper Midwest through the Ohio Valley. Skies across the
region were partly to mostly cloudy. Temperatures ranged from the
lower 40s over far NE KY to the lower 60s across far SW KY. Overall,
there was about a 10 degree gradient across our forecast area. For
the remainder of the afternoon, we expect cloudiness to persist and
thicken as the afternoon wears on. Highs will top out in the next
hour or two with lower-mid 40s over the Bluegrass region and mid-
upper 50s over our southwest sections. While there are some returns
on area radars, antecedent dry air in place will likely keep any
precipitation falling from reaching the ground through the early
For tonight, surface boundary to the south of the region will drift
back northward in the form of a warm front. Combination of
isentropic lift along with some height falls aloft should result in
more widespread precipitation development. Overall model solutions
have been trending a little slower with precipitation development on
this cycle. However, our thinking is that precipitation should
start to increase after 17/00Z and then spread eastward toward the I-
65 corridor toward midnight. This activity should spread eastward
through the rest of the forecast area overnight. Model proximity
soundings do not show a lot of surface instability. However, there
could be some pockets of elevated instability which may lead to a
rumble of thunder as the showers move through the region. Lows
tonight will range from the mid-upper 30s over the northern
Bluegrass to the lower 50s over our southwestern sections.
For Saturday and Saturday night, we`ll see the surface warm front
nudge northward throughout the day. Current thinking is that it
will likely reach as far north as the Ohio River by late morning to
mid-afternoon, leading to a strong temperature gradient across the
region. Highs may range from the lower 40s across our far northern
southern IN counties to near 70 down along the KY/TN border region.
A surface low and upper level wave will move eastward across the
region during the day. Some instability will develop during the
afternoon hours and a line, or several lines of broken convection
will likely develop and move southeast across the region. The best
chances for thunderstorms on Saturday would be generally along and
southeast of a line from Leitchfield to Lexington. This activity
will rapidly move off to the southeast and clear the region by early-
mid Saturday evening. Skies are forecast to clear out from
northwest to southeast overnight. Lows will range from the lower
30s over southern Indiana to the lower 40s over far southern KY.
.Long Term...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 338 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018
Sunday through Monday Night...
A period of weak upper level ridging will be seen on Sunday across
the region. This should result in a short dry period of weather on
Sunday with highs in the 54 to 59 degree range. Clouds will be on
the increase Sunday night as another weather system approaches from
the southwest. Best chances of precipitation late Sunday night will
be across our far southwest and southern areas. Lows will range
from the upper 30s across southern IN to the upper 30s to the lower
40s across southern KY.
By Monday afternoon, compact but nearly vertically stacked surface
and upper level low will roll eastward through the region. This
feature will bring widespread precipitation to the region. A tight
thermal gradient may be seen once again as temperatures will range
from the mid-upper 50s in the north to the upper 60s across the
south. Model soundings do show some potential for some surface
based instability to develop across southern KY Monday afternoon, so
some thunderstorms will be possible as this feature moves through
the region. Some wrap around precipitation is likely to linger
Monday night with temperatures falling into the mid 30s in the north
and in the lower-mid 40s across the south. If some colder air were
to work in, we could see a bit of a rain/snow mix across southern IN
and far northern KY by Tuesday morning. Something to watch in
Tuesday through Friday...
Active and progressive upper level pattern is forecast to persist
across much of North America through the long term period. This
will result in episodic bouts of inclement weather and colder than
normal temperatures for the period.
The upper level pattern will feature a ridge in the western US with
a trough in the east. A few disturbances will roll through the
upper trough and may result in several storm systems affecting the
eastern US coast through the period. A rather strong perturbation
looks to move through the region late Tuesday and into Wednesday.
This will bring a period cold rain to the region. However, colder
air wrapping into the system may result in snows developing across
the area late Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. The Euro is a bit
more progressive here keeping the highest threat of snowfall across
southeastern KY. The GFS is a bit more amped up and produces more
widespread snows across the area. For now, have used a general
blend of the Euro and GFS here which results in rain and snow for
the forecast Tuesday night into Wednesday.
By late Wednesday, we`ll see the progressive pattern continue and we
should see ridging building in from the west which will yield a
drier, but continued cool pattern for Thursday. Inclement weather
looks to return by Friday as the next weather system pushes eastward
into the region.
As for temps, warmest period will be on Tuesday with highs in the
upper 40s to the lower 50s. Highs Wednesday are dependent on
aforementioned storm track. The blend yields highs in upper 30s to
the lower 40s, though highs may end up being a little colder than
that. Temps will rebound slightly on Thursday and Friday with temps
warming back into the 40s and 50s. Overnight lows look to be in the
upper 20s to the lower 30s.
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 645 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018
Arcing band of showers developing across central Missouri will be
our main weather maker overnight, with the best chance of rain
getting into HNB around 04Z and making its way eastward through the
early hours of Sat morning. Ceilings will drop into fuel-alternate
MVFR, with the best potential for IFR at HNB. Can`t rule out IFR
conditions at SDF or LEX, but for now will keep it just above. Wind
shear will also be an issue with the warm front draped close to SDF
and LEX toward daybreak, resulting in a 35-40kt SW low-level jet,
which on its own would be marginal but impacts are increased due to
an easterly surface wind.
Around sunrise expect the rain to push off to the east and winds to
come around briefly to the south before the front waves back the
other way to bring in northerly winds. BWG will break out into VFR
with a gusty SW wind for the afternoon. Low ceilings will persist at
SDF and LEX, with enough of a shower chance to warrant VCSH mention,
if not a PROB group.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
854 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018
854 PM CDT
GOES differential water vapor RGB this evening nicely depicts
the well defined upper low over the central plains beginning to
shear out and grow increasingly deformed as it moves into an area
with more of a confluent flow. Short range numerical guidance is
in good agreement in weakening this system tonight as it moves
east, through strong forcing in advance of the feature is already
resulting in a blossoming arc of precipitation from IA east into
western IL then arcing south into downstate IL.
In advance of this arc of precip there resides a very dry air mass
with ACARs soundings this evening from MDW depicting a bone dry
atmosphere with the highest RH being 50% at around 500 mb.
Upstream, ILX/DVN soundings show the result of extensive virga and
top-down saturating with a much more moist profile, though dry low
The dry air mass will help keep a sharp cut-off to the northern
extent of the precip, which looks like it will reside in our CWA
overnight into early Saturday morning. For the most part, changed
very little with respect to precip timing, amounts, and location
tonight other than to perhaps slow the onset of the precip
The bigger question remains the precip type. Generally speaking,
ACARs soundings this evening have suggested that both the 12z and
18z GFS as well as the 18z NAM were verifying slightly too warm
(~1C) with the max temp aloft. While this is a small error in the
grand scheme of things, forecast soundings tonight have
temperatures tonight precariously close to the freezing line. This
is resulting in a fairly low confidence forecast in eventual
precip type. The RAP guidance thermal profiles have generally
been colder than going forecast and given the slight warm bias
noted in NAM/GFS forecasts as well as observed ACARS soundings
with wet-bulb temps well below zero, have trended the forecast
toward a slightly colder solution. The result is a bit more
snow/sleet northern extent of the precip with still a sizable area
of freezing rain from Ogle & Lee Counties east-southeast into Will
& Kankakee Counties and into NW IN from there. Given the magnitude
of the dry air present am concerned that sleet could be a bit more
prevalent (especially initially) in this swath, but confidence
isn`t such that I was comfortable to make any big shifts in
All in all, the going winter wx advisory looks on track and no
changes are planned this evening.
233 PM CDT
A compact surface low and mid-level trough across north-central
Kansas will track eastward tonight while shearing apart between
the southern and northern streams. Though dynamics are becoming
less favorable as the system approaches the CWA, sufficient low-
level moisture transport and warm-air advection should maintain
modest ascent across most of the CWA overnight. Precip should
begin across the SW CWA around 03Z, then expand NE into the
Chicago Metro around 06-07Z. Precip should then gradually diminish
across the entire area from 10-14Z. Cloud cover will then
gradually diminish from north to south through the day Saturday as
upper ridging and surface high pressure edge into the area from
Surface dew point depressions of around 20F have been prevalent
upstream across lower MI this afternoon. The continuous dry E/ENE
feed in the low-levels should maintain surface wet-bulb temps below
freezing through the night. However, it will also result in a sharp
northerly cutoff in precip. Based on latest guidance, have continued
to sharpen the northern edge of the precip, with QPF reaching to a
rough line from Beloit to Woodstock to Evanston.
Low-level temp profiles supports nearly all precip to melt during
descent. Across the northern fringes of the precip generally along
and north of I-90, a sufficiently deep layer of sub-freezing wet-
bulb temps exists for a mix of freezing rain and sleet/snow. Precip
type then gradually transitions to all freezing rain across central
portions of the CWA, to a mix of rain and freezing rain across
southern portions of the CWA.
While most of the icing is expected on elevated surfaces, ground
temps near freezing in some locations should result in icing on non-
elevated surfaces. With ice accumulations generally in the 0.1" to
0.2" range for most areas, have expanded the Winter Weather Advisory
to all of the CWA except the WI bordering counties. With that said,
icing conditions for Kane, Dupage and Cook counties should remain
confined to the southern portions of counties. As for sleet/snow
accumulations across the northern portions of the precip shield,
current expectation is for less than 0.5".
250 PM CDT
Saturday night through Friday...
The main forecast concern/uncertainty in the long term portion of
the forecast regards handling of a storm system that may pass
near or south of the area early in the work week. Sunday will be a
pleasant day under surface high pressure after a chilly start to
the day. Dry boundary layer conditions and full or nearly full
sunshine will enable temperatures to warm into the lower to mid
50s. The only item of note is the passage of a lake breeze for
shoreline areas and a bit inland during the afternoon, which will
result in sharp cooling behind the wind shift, to the upper 30s to
around 40 near the lake by the late afternoon.
Regarding the early week storm system, a northeastern North
American/north Atlantic blocking pattern, known as a negative
North Atlantic Oscillation (-NAO), is forecast to re-intensify. A
short-wave embedded in the deep trough along the Pacific Coast
will eject over the Intermountain West over the weekend, becoming
a vigorous closed mid-upper low with attendant surface low over
the southern High Plains on Sunday night. The track this system
takes and how it interacts with the blocking pattern is something
that the guidance has been struggling with over the past few days.
The 12z GFS and several GEFS members were more bullish on a
slightly farther north low pressure track and northern extent of
precipitation shield versus the ECMWF and Canadian operational
models and most ensemble members. This is still a period to watch
for some precip potential, which at this point would have a
better chance for areas well south of I-80 (where chance PoPs are
currently indicated), though at 78+ hours out, can`t rule out
further shifts. If precipitation does extend north into the area,
thermal profiles would likely support a change to wet snow on
Monday night into early Tuesday. Outside of the uncertain precip
potential, this period will be marked by northeast winds gusting
to 25-35 mph at times, strongest lake side.
After this possible Monday-Tuesday system, expect a few quiet and
cool days, with current trends indicating a decent chance for
another storm system to affect the region starting some time next
Friday. The other main story next week is once again the
persistent and at times strong onshore flow (especially Monday-
Tuesday) which will result in chilly conditions lakeside, with
most of the week in the 30s/possibly around 40 for these areas.
Inland areas will not escape the cooler than average temperatures
for the latter part of March, aided by the -NAO.
For the 00Z TAFs...
644 pm...Forecast concerns this period include a period of a
wintry mix early Saturday morning and timing of this precip.
Drier easterly flow is expected to weaken initial waves of precip
this evening but eventually...precipitation is expected to reach
the terminals overnight. Because of this dry air...start time may
need further adjustments as trends emerge this evening. There
will likely be a sharp cutoff to the precip area...near or just
north of a rfd/dpa/ord line. Thus confidence for precip at those
terminals is only medium...with better chances for mdw/gyy.
Precip type will likely vary due to location and intensity. Have
maintained light freezing rain and snow with this forecast but its
possible some areas may end up all light freezing rain while
areas on the northern edge of the precip are mainly light snow or
light sleet. Precip end time is also somewhat uncertain...with the
potential for light snow or light rain perhaps lingering at
mdw/gyy through mid Saturday morning.
Cigs will slowly lower to a mid deck later this evening and likely
into mvfr once precip develops. These mvfr cigs will start to push
south Saturday morning with clearing skies expected by afternoon.
East/northeast winds will continue through the period. As high
pressure approaches the area Saturday evening...winds are expected
to become light and variable after sunset. cms
332 PM CDT
Weakening low pressure will pass south of the lake tonight into
Saturday while high pressure remains draped across the lake. This
will result in northeast winds over the southern portion of the
lake and west to north then variable winds for the north half. A
cold front will drop south down the lake Sunday into Sunday night.
This will be followed by the next period of more significant
marine concern next Monday and Tuesday. A stronger high pressure
will set up over Ontario while fairly strong low pressure passes
near or south of the Ohio River. Brisk northeast winds will ensue,
with the track and strength of the low driving how strong the
winds get. Gales are possible Monday night, including for the
nearshore waters, though not yet indicated in the open waters
forecast. North-northeast winds will remain elevated but not
quite as strong on Wednesday, maintaining hazardous conditions for
small craft in the nearshore water.
IL...Winter Weather Advisory...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-
ILZ039 until 8 AM Saturday.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019
until 8 AM Saturday.
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