Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/06/18

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
823 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 .UPDATE... A region of precipitation stretching from southern Indiana, across Wisconsin and into the northern plains is associated with the warm conveyor belt of the upper low centered over Iowa this evening. The plume of moist isentropic ascent responsible for the precip advancing into the western Great Lakes will track across Se Mi after 06Z. The moist axis will pivot across the forecast area from sw to ne, with the forcing holding a little more persistent across the Saginaw Valley and thumb region into early tues afternoon. The 00Z DTX sounding showed a considerable amount dry air in the 900-500mb layer (with precip water only 0.15). This will cause the lead edge of the snow to evaporate, suggesting the onset of snow may be after 09Z. While the ascent is expected to weaken a little as the moist axis rotates into Se Mi, very good upper level divergence should support strong enough ascent to eventually moisten the column. Based on the latest HRRR and RAP, an update will be issued to nudge pops upward late tonight, mainly se of a Flint to downtown Detroit line. Recent hi res solutions also suggest current forecast snow accums may be a touch on the low side. Given the degree of dry air now present over Se Mi and with temps rising into the low to mid 30s Tues morning, no adjustments to forecast snow amounts will be made attm. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 608 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 AVIATION... A strengthening east-southeast gradient during the night will sustain sfc winds around 10 knots. The easterly feed of dry air will hold low clouds well to the southwest through at least 09 or 10Z. An axis of deep moisture will then be driven across Se Mi from just prior to daybreak through early afternoon, associated with an upper low over Iowa and a sfc occluded front. Given wet bulb cooling processes, precip associated with this system should largely be light snow. The forcing will remain a little more persistent into the afternoon around MBS, where accums may exceed an inch. Farther south, particularly across metro Detroit, the degree of dry air and shorter duration forcing should keep total accums less than an inch. The loss of mid level dry air from south to north from mid morning into the afternoon, raises some concerns for drizzle/freezing drizzle. At this stage in the forecast, the chances for this actually look quite low as the higher near sfc moisture gets pinched off with the occlusion and therefore holds south of the state. For DTW...The easterly winds will favor NE flow operations tonight through into early Tues afternoon before wind speeds weaken. A period of light snow is expected Tues morning, sometime between daybreak and noon. The overall weak intensity with temps in the 30s should hold accums to a half inch or less. Again, the chances for any drizzle/freezing drizzle remain too low to include in the terminals. /DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for ceilings falling below 5000 ft prior to 12z Tuesday morning, high thereafter. * Medium in ptype onset as snow Tuesday morning. Low in ptype of rain/snow mix after 15z. * Very low in the occurrence of freezing drizzle late Tuesday morning /13z-15z/. PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 DISCUSSION... Typical early spring airmass in place with 850mb temps in the negative single digits and high temperatures at or below 40 degrees, as was the case yesterday. Cirrus advecting across the resident low amplitude ridge axis signal the approach of a stacked and weakening upstream cyclone. Wing of isentropic ascent supporting showers across the middle MS River and lower OH River valleys will pivot through the area late tonight, likely beginning as virga as the lower atmosphere takes time to saturate. A very warm thermodynamic environment featuring a partially saturated DGZ at 10kft, weak vertical motion, and surface temps easily in the mid 20s suggest paltry snow ratios to go along with modest QPF of no more than 0.1" in most spots. Longer duration precip across the northern counties will be countered by daylight ensuring minimal additional daytime accums. Accumulation of a half inch or less in most areas except possibly 1.5" or so in the Saginaw Valley. Descending dry air stream will yield a transient window for drizzle Tues afternoon. With little change in airmass character, once again expect temps in the 30s areawide. Attention for Tuesday night turns to the potential for a band of accumulating snow, the location of which remains uncertain at this time. NAM12 progs indicate a modest LLJ surge at 850mb that will augment a 925-850mb fgen response over southeast portions of the CWA. Planview 850-500mb dtheta/dp indicates a very weakly stable to weakly convectively unstable surging into the area in the wake of the dry slot after 00z and immediately in advance of the incoming 400mb PV anomaly. Cross-sections indicate a stout fgen response within this environment that seems certain to take on a convective character during Tuesday night. Uncertainty ranges from the potential for convection to become more cellular, which would reduce accumulation potential, to the frontal elevation that will ultimately become most active. Best approach attm seems to be to raise pops given high confidence in the general forcing scenario but to leave the inherited grids as is given uncertainty in location and potential snow amounts, suffice it to say a narrow band of heavy snow producing minor to moderate accums in a short time period is in play during the overnight period. Continued temps in the 30s for Wednesday with closed low parked overhead. Chc pops for snow showers through this time as mid-level impulses rotate through the area. Some scattered snow showers will linger on Thursday as a closed upper low hovers over the area before a shortwave helps to kick it off to the east by early Friday. Thursday will be seasonably cool, with highs in the mid 30s. Upper troughing will remain over the eastern Great Lakes through the extended period and a series of additional shortwaves will pivot around the flow, however, not expecting more than a continuation of cloud cover for our area with these waves as moisture will generally be lacking. Weak ridging on Saturday evening may provide a brief window for clearer skies. A stronger clipper system will track from the upper midwest into the Ohio Valley on Sunday, but at this time looks to bypass SE Michigan without incident. Stronger ridging returns next Monday and will keep the early work week quiet. Temperatures through the long term period will be near seasonal normals with highs in the upper 30s/lower 40s and lows dipping to the lower/mid 20s. MARINE... Extended period of moderate east-northeast flow will persist through Tuesday, as the area remains positioned between high pressure anchored over Canada and low pressure developing over the central Plains. Winds speeds of 15 to 25 knots will remain common during this time, with gust potential peaking at 30 knots. The steady onshore flow will maintain elevated wave action across the western basin, yielding small craft conditions over Outer Saginaw Bay and the nearshore waters of Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for LHZ421-441. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && $$ UPDATE.......SC AVIATION.....SC DISCUSSION...JVC/TF MARINE.......MR You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at
Please see the 00Z aviation forecast discussion below.

AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected at area TAF sites through the forecast period. North to northeasterly winds behind a cold front can be expected through this evening and overnight at area TAF sites. Winds will be gusty along the I-35 corridor for a few more hours this evening, then decrease. Some clouds with bases at or above 6k agl can also be expected through the period. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)... Upper air analysis from this morning showed a mid level trough across the central US with zonal westerly flow across south central Texas. At 2 pm this afternoon, the surface cold front was essentially along an Austin to Boerne to Uvalde line, and moving southeast. A few storms are ongoing across Fort Worth`s CWA, but convection is struggling to initiate along the front in our area. SPC mesoanalysis shows about 35-40 knots of effective bulk shear and around 1500 J/kg of surface based CAPE along and ahead of the front. The issue is the relative lack of upper level forcing. The HRRR continues to suggest a couple showers and thunderstorms forming this afternoon, but coverage will be sparse. POPs have been lowered for this afternoon to account for the decreasing confidence in convection. Any showers and storms will progress east/southeastward through the afternoon hours as the front continues to move through the region. Some showers or drizzle may linger tonight across portions of the coastal plains. High pressure and dry air will filter in to the region in wake of the passing cold front, with northerly winds persisting. Tuesday will be quite lovely with high temperatures near 70 with mostly sunny skies and low dewpoints. Lows Tuesday night should drop into the upper 30s for the Hill Country and the 40s elsewhere. LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)... Highs will top out in the 60s for Wednesday as northerly winds continue to keep temperatures tempered. Winds finally turn southerly by Thursday afternoon and evening, advecting moisture back into the region and yielding partly to mostly cloudy skies. These southerly winds increase on Friday, helping high temperatures get back into the 70s. A weak short wave passing through south central Texas will yield a slight chance for showers for our eastern counties Friday through Saturday morning. A surface low comes across the Texas panhandle into southern Oklahoma on Saturday, bringing a dryline into the region. Winds shift southwesterly and clearing skies paired with some compressional warming out ahead of an approaching cold front will help highs reach the 80s Saturday afternoon before the front passes north to south on Saturday afternoon and evening. Surface winds shift north/northeasterly behind the cold front for Sunday and Monday, returning temperatures closer to seasonal normals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 48 71 43 62 41 / 10 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 46 71 41 62 38 / 10 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 49 70 43 64 39 / 10 10 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 43 69 39 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 51 74 49 71 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 44 69 38 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 51 73 45 68 42 / 10 10 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 48 70 42 64 39 / 10 10 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 48 70 43 62 39 / 10 10 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 51 72 46 67 42 / 10 10 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 54 71 46 67 43 / 20 10 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Mesoscale/Aviation...24 Synoptic/Grids...TB3 Public Service/Data Collection...33
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
902 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018 .DISCUSSION... Cold front and associated line of showers and isolated thunderstorms continues to work its way across Southeast Texas this evening with the greatest thunderstorm concentration off to our east in Louisiana where the airmass is much more unstable. Mid evening radar is showing additional storm development behind the front, so far mainly in/around the CLL area. For the update this evening, have adjusted rain chances for the overnight hours with lower values inland and higher numbers near the coast and offshore. The rest of the forecast was left mostly untouched. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018/ AVIATION... I did not make any significant changes to this evenings TAF Forecast still looks on track for cooler temperatures and lower dew points behind the front.package. The HRRR model has a pretty good handle on the timing of the cold front that will move across the Houston metro area between 00-03Z and off the coast between 04-05Z. The showers and thunderstorms associated with the front this afternoon are decreasing in intensity as the front moves in to a region dominated by a fairly strong a convective cap. Winds will become Northerly at 10 to 20 knots behind the front before leveling off at 8-10 knots overnight. The front may slow as is moves off the coast, increasing overnight rain chances at KLBX and KGLS. Tuesday should be VFR at all terminals with mostly high clouds and light north winds. 44 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018/ NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Surface analysis at 21Z has cold front from Caldwell/College Station to Crockett with a line of showers and thunderstorms along it. Storms are pulse type with a few cells peaking in intensity and then weakening. A new updraft forms and does the same thing. This may support a pulse strong storm with a downburst and small hail, but given the trends, that possibility is rather low. Storms are really struggling against the cap. AMDAR soundings from airplanes early this afternoon show that cap closer to 750-700mb rather than 800mb so there is some lift from the front which is helping to force convection. Still there is plenty of dry air entrainment which is helping to derail convective growth. With convection weakening along the front, think that this may be the trend for the afternoon through the overnight. Front is undercutting most of the convection making it more elevated, but it will be tough for a strong/severe storm to occur behind the front with little support from upper level dynamics. Front still could trigger storms along the coast with higher moisture but overall confidence is low for severe weather and heavy rainfall. SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Thursday]... Tuesday into Wednesday the upper level pattern becomes amplified with a deep trough forming over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. NW flow aloft should keep conditions dry through the middle of the week with surface high pressure building through the plains. This should allow for below normal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday with a warm up expected for the weekend. Overall rather little in the way of weather impacts for mid week. LONG TERM [Friday Through Monday]... Return flow from the Gulf does increase Friday as high pressure moves east. Moisture return may be a bit too aggressive with the GFS but still worth a mention of a few showers starting on Friday. Overall coverage looks to be isolated at best. A short wave trough in the flow does move across TX and increase rain chances going into Saturday mainly east of the area into Louisiana. Another strong trough develops over the Midwest Saturday into Sunday which helps push a cold front through Saturday night into Sunday. Dry conditions should continue into early next week with temperatures near or slightly below normal. Depending upon your point of view, this may or may not be a good way to start spring break for most people. Overpeck MARINE... Cold front appears to be on track to move off the coast this eve- ning. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will likely accompany this line as it moves into the Gulf waters with moderate/strong north winds developing in its wake. Small hail/gusty winds may also be possible with the storms. Small Craft Caution or Advisories will likely be needed starting overnight through Tue morning. Another round of flags will be possible Tues night with the passage of a secondary cold front which could bring colder air across the mar- ine waters. THis offshore flow is expected to persist thru Thurs before gradually veering onshore Fri. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 47 71 41 63 38 / 30 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 54 73 45 66 41 / 30 10 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 59 70 54 65 50 / 50 30 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1030 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1030 PM EST MON MAR 5 2018 Did a quick update to fine tune temperatures and dewpoints through the rest of the night. Also, tweaked the PoPs and Wx grids per the latest radar trends and HRRR guidance. These grid updates have been sent to the NDFD and web servers, along with the issuance of a freshened set of zones. UPDATE Issued at 700 PM EST MON MAR 5 2018 23z sfc analysis shows a warm front lifting through central and eastern Kentucky. Most of the rain associated with the leading edge of this boundary is dying out initially in our dry air with the next batch due in here later in the evening - crossing the middle parts of the state currently. Skies remain overcast through the area ahead of the inbound rain with temperatures backing off of the afternoon highs - now having fallen into the middle and upper 40s most places. Meanwhile, with light winds, dewpoints are quite dry in the teens northeast to the lower 30s in the southwest, while most places are somewhere in the 20s. This dryness will impact the ability of the rain to make it to the ground later this evening and overnight ahead of the system`s cold front as the column starts to moisten up. Have made only minor adjustments to the ongoing forecast - mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T and Td grids. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 431 PM EST MON MAR 5 2018 Initial band of rain showers that entered the I-75 corridor this afternoon has all but dissipated. A second band is currently moving eastward out of western Kentucky and will pass through our area during the overnight period. All of this activity associated with a developing and complex storm system centered roughly over the upper Midwest. Mid/upper level features will rotate through the Great Lakes region and partially phase with energy dropping southward out of Canada through the period. Closer to the surface a warm frontal boundary will pass through the area overnight, bringing with it a likely chance of showers for most locations in our forecast area. Not far behind this feature a cold frontal boundary will enter the Commonwealth from the west during the day Tuesday and speed through eastern Kentucky late Tuesday evening. Colder air will rush in behind a surface low that tracks straight up the Ohio Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This combined with some wrap around moisture will provide a chance for some rain showers Tuesday evening and eventually some snow showers by late Tuesday night as colder air continues to pour into the area. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 359 PM EST MON MAR 5 2018 A strong upper level closed low will be slowly making its way across the Ohio Valley. At the surface we see a weakening low pressure system across the Ohio Valley and a deepening low across the Mid Atlantic coast. We will keep some upslope like showers going through the day Wednesday and into Thursday, as another re- enforcing upper level wave works into the region. There could be period of mixing or rain showers Wednesday, but most of this will remain snow under cold advection pattern. There could be some light accumulations, but this would be light and slushy given the relatively warm antecedent conditions. Then the more amplified pattern does flatten some for the weekend, but a low pressure will progress out of the Plains and warm front will move northward out of the Tennessee Valley. This will provide a increased chances of precipitation by later Friday into Saturday. This system will linger around much of the weekend into early next week and therefore keep chances of rain showers through much of this period. There is some concern by the end of the weekend into early next week on a deepening upper level low introducing more cold air and the potential for snowfall. There remains enough questions at this point to stick with the model blends and see where the surface low track trends. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 725 PM EST MON MAR 5 2018 Clouds continue to lower and thicken across the area as a weather system approaches from the west. A band of showers to our west, over central Kentucky, is creeping eastward. Models show this initial wave of showers dissipating as it moves into the area. This is associated with a warm frontal boundary that will lift northeastward through the area during the overnight, bringing a round of potentially more substantive rain showers to the area. CIGS will drop into MVFR territory for several hours, most likely between about 7Z and 14Z as the latter showers push across the area. A surface cold front will be right behind the warm front by a matter of hours and push through eastern Kentucky early Tuesday morning with VFR conditions quickly returning by noon. Light and variable winds will become southwest to westerly behind the cold front early Tuesday morning and increase to around 10 kts by mid day with some gustiness of up to 20 kts later in the afternoon. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...RAY/GREIF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
345 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018 .SHORT TERM... Frontal zone currently located near Shreveport with a line of strong to severe thunderstorms draped along it from eastern Arkansas, through northwest Louisiana into central Texas. A few of the storms prompted Tornado Warning issuances this afternoon near the LA-AR border with satellite and radar displaying supercellular storms where the dynamics and thermodynamics are optimized. Frontal zone receives a surge of cold air advection that should accelerate the convection and wind shift into the forecast area before midnight tonight. Convection may lose some intensity around and after midnight as cells interact with marine layer influences farther south. HRRR, and to some extent, the RAP show a bit of a recharge closer to 5 am in the river and south shore parishes for enhanced rainfall rates, but progressive nature of front should preclude any flooding concerns. Front pushes of the coast during the morning with cool high pressure building into the area throughout the day Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to stay mainly in the lower to mid 60s much of the day then cool into the 40s overnight. .LONG TERM... Area will be under the influence of continental high pressure settling over the Gulf States for dry and cooler to mild conditions Wednesday through early Friday. As high shifts east Friday, strong deep-fetched onshore flow onsets into the region for strong warm air advection in response to developing storm system in the central Plains that starts out as a Bernoulli feature in the lee of the Rockies that acquires baroclinicity in time Saturday. This will likely place much of LA and MS in a very unstable warm sector that may be supportive of severe thunderstorms. GFS is actually showing a bore low feature which is rare for model detection. SPC is addressing this feature in the day 4-8 outlook and raises uncertainties on whether this feature materializes to shut inflow to convection that may develop in the warm sector over land. At this time, will show decent chance of thunderstorms and see how subsequent model runs perform in regards to this trop fold driven feature that is currently being advertized in the GFS. The ECMWF does depict a kink in the pressure field suggestive of this phenomenon but not as bold in depicting an actual meso-scale vortex feature like the GFS. && .AVIATION... Ceilings have started to lower and increase with some overcast layers moving in at some of the terminals. Ceilings will continue to lower as the evening progress and rain begins to move into the area. By 03Z, rain should begin spreading across the most of the area area from west to east. Handled with PROB30 groups for most of the rain before and after the line expected to move through the area. A few of hours of prevailing rain or thunder is to be expected with the passage of the line. Conditions should begin to improve by mid- morning for the westernmost terminals and by early afternoon to the east. && .MARINE... Front moves off the coast very late tongight, maybe even after dawn. Thunderstorms are likely to accompany the passage with broken linear features that may produce gusty winds 35-40 kt. Cold high pressure builds from the north that will bring an increase in winds and seas for much of Tuesday before leveling off later in the day Wednesday. Surface high center settles along the north gulf coast Thursday and early Friday. High pushes east rather quickly Friday for a period of strong onshore return flow Friday into Saturday ahead of a developing spring storm in the Plain States this weekend. && .DECISION SUPPORT... DSS code: Green. Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: None. Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend Green = No weather impacts that require action. Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high visibility event. Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory issuances; radar support. Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes. Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 54 67 41 58 / 90 60 0 0 BTR 56 69 43 60 / 90 70 0 0 ASD 58 65 46 61 / 70 90 0 0 MSY 60 64 51 61 / 60 90 0 0 GPT 62 64 46 62 / 70 90 0 0 PQL 63 65 45 62 / 60 90 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ 24/RR SO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
920 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018 .UPDATE... A cold front has just moved through Memphis and will continue moving east during the overnight hours. A band of showers currently stretches from Somerville to Decaturville, Tennessee while another area, that also has a few embedded thunderstorms, skirts Northeast Mississippi. These two areas of convection will continue to push east and should exit the CWA by midnight. Will leave small chance POPS across portions of Northeast Mississippi, southeast of Tupelo, in case of a lingering shower. Otherwise, clearing conditions are expected as much drier air filters into the region. Lows are expected to be in the upper 30s to the mid 40s. KRM && .DISCUSSION... /issued 342 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018/ Temperatures have managed to climb into the upper 50s to low 60s across most of the area despite quite a bit of cloud cover. Weak warm advection continues to usher in a moister airmass from central Alabama and Mississippi. A few light showers linger across North Mississippi and West Tennessee near the Tennessee River, but most of the heavier showers from earlier have moved into Middle Tennessee and North Alabama. We are watching a fairly strong thunderstorm showing mini-supercell characteristics South of Little Rock. If this storm continues due East it will track into the North Mississippi in a little over an hour. The HRRR has had a pretty good handle on this scenario, but also develops a few storms farther North. Conditions are not quite as favorable for strong or severe thunderstorms farther North, but we are certainly going to have to watch these storms closely. Tomorrow will be a little warmer, in the low to middle 60s. A dry cold front will shift across the Midsouth tomorrow resulting in highs about 10 degrees cooler Wednesday, in the upper 40s to middle 50s. Winds behind the cold front will be strong...possibly sustained over 20 mph with gusts to 30mph. We may need a Wind Advisory for a portion of Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. An upper level low will track from Iowa into Northwest Kentucky Tuesday night into early Wednesday. An isolated shower can`t be totally ruled out Tuesday night into early Wednesday near Paris, TN...but due to the track of the low...we probably won`t see much more than increased cloud cover across West Tennessee. It should remain mostly clear and dry elsewhere. Thursday and Friday mornings will be cool...maybe even in the upper 20s in Northwest Tennessee with low to middle 30s across most of the Midsouth. Highs Thursday will be in the 50s with 60s returning Friday. Strong Northwest flow will set up during the end of the work week. We expect strong frontogenesis in the Plains Friday as a shortwave dives through the mean flow. There is still a lot of uncertainty with this system over the weekend...but its safe to say it will be wet. There may be a few thunderstorms, but at this time the chance of strong to severe storms looks low. The greater concern will be another round of heavy rain Friday night through Saturday night or possibly into Sunday. Extended guidance suggests several inches of rain is possible. Multiple inches of rain would at least minimally aggravate any ongoing flooding and possibly result in additional flooding. 30 && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail through the period at KJBR. MVFR cigs are possible for the next few hours at KMEM, KMKL and KTUP ahead of an approaching cold front. Isolated to scattered SHRAs are possible along and ahead of the front this evening with a few TSRAs at KTUP. Conditions will improve rapidly after the cold front passage. South winds at 8-10 kts will shift to the NW at 8-10 kts and diminish overnight. The pressure gradient will increase on Monday with westerly winds at 15-20 kts with higher gusts. SJM && && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$