Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/06/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
823 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018
A region of precipitation stretching from southern Indiana, across
Wisconsin and into the northern plains is associated with the warm
conveyor belt of the upper low centered over Iowa this evening. The
plume of moist isentropic ascent responsible for the precip advancing
into the western Great Lakes will track across Se Mi after 06Z. The
moist axis will pivot across the forecast area from sw to ne, with
the forcing holding a little more persistent across the Saginaw
Valley and thumb region into early tues afternoon. The 00Z DTX
sounding showed a considerable amount dry air in the 900-500mb layer
(with precip water only 0.15). This will cause the lead edge of the
snow to evaporate, suggesting the onset of snow may be after 09Z.
While the ascent is expected to weaken a little as the moist axis
rotates into Se Mi, very good upper level divergence should support
strong enough ascent to eventually moisten the column. Based on the
latest HRRR and RAP, an update will be issued to nudge pops upward
late tonight, mainly se of a Flint to downtown Detroit line. Recent
hi res solutions also suggest current forecast snow accums may be a
touch on the low side. Given the degree of dry air now present over
Se Mi and with temps rising into the low to mid 30s Tues morning, no
adjustments to forecast snow amounts will be made attm.
Issued at 608 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018
A strengthening east-southeast gradient during the night will
sustain sfc winds around 10 knots. The easterly feed of dry air will
hold low clouds well to the southwest through at least 09 or 10Z. An
axis of deep moisture will then be driven across Se Mi from just
prior to daybreak through early afternoon, associated with an upper
low over Iowa and a sfc occluded front. Given wet bulb cooling
processes, precip associated with this system should largely be
light snow. The forcing will remain a little more persistent into
the afternoon around MBS, where accums may exceed an inch. Farther
south, particularly across metro Detroit, the degree of dry air and
shorter duration forcing should keep total accums less than an inch.
The loss of mid level dry air from south to north from mid morning
into the afternoon, raises some concerns for drizzle/freezing
drizzle. At this stage in the forecast, the chances for this
actually look quite low as the higher near sfc moisture gets pinched
off with the occlusion and therefore holds south of the state.
For DTW...The easterly winds will favor NE flow operations tonight
through into early Tues afternoon before wind speeds weaken. A
period of light snow is expected Tues morning, sometime between
daybreak and noon. The overall weak intensity with temps in the 30s
should hold accums to a half inch or less. Again, the chances for
any drizzle/freezing drizzle remain too low to include in the
/DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for ceilings falling below 5000 ft prior to 12z Tuesday
morning, high thereafter.
* Medium in ptype onset as snow Tuesday morning. Low in ptype
of rain/snow mix after 15z.
* Very low in the occurrence of freezing drizzle late Tuesday
Issued at 338 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018
Typical early spring airmass in place with 850mb temps in the
negative single digits and high temperatures at or below 40 degrees,
as was the case yesterday. Cirrus advecting across the resident low
amplitude ridge axis signal the approach of a stacked and weakening
upstream cyclone. Wing of isentropic ascent supporting showers
across the middle MS River and lower OH River valleys will pivot
through the area late tonight, likely beginning as virga as the
lower atmosphere takes time to saturate. A very warm thermodynamic
environment featuring a partially saturated DGZ at 10kft, weak
vertical motion, and surface temps easily in the mid 20s suggest
paltry snow ratios to go along with modest QPF of no more than 0.1"
in most spots. Longer duration precip across the northern counties
will be countered by daylight ensuring minimal additional daytime
accums. Accumulation of a half inch or less in most areas except
possibly 1.5" or so in the Saginaw Valley. Descending dry air stream
will yield a transient window for drizzle Tues afternoon. With
little change in airmass character, once again expect temps in the
Attention for Tuesday night turns to the potential for a band of
accumulating snow, the location of which remains uncertain at this
time. NAM12 progs indicate a modest LLJ surge at 850mb that will
augment a 925-850mb fgen response over southeast portions of the
CWA. Planview 850-500mb dtheta/dp indicates a very weakly stable to
weakly convectively unstable surging into the area in the wake of
the dry slot after 00z and immediately in advance of the incoming
400mb PV anomaly. Cross-sections indicate a stout fgen response
within this environment that seems certain to take on a convective
character during Tuesday night. Uncertainty ranges from the
potential for convection to become more cellular, which would reduce
accumulation potential, to the frontal elevation that will
ultimately become most active. Best approach attm seems to be to
raise pops given high confidence in the general forcing scenario but
to leave the inherited grids as is given uncertainty in location and
potential snow amounts, suffice it to say a narrow band of heavy
snow producing minor to moderate accums in a short time period is in
play during the overnight period. Continued temps in the 30s for
Wednesday with closed low parked overhead. Chc pops for snow showers
through this time as mid-level impulses rotate through the area.
Some scattered snow showers will linger on Thursday as a closed
upper low hovers over the area before a shortwave helps to kick it
off to the east by early Friday. Thursday will be seasonably cool,
with highs in the mid 30s. Upper troughing will remain over the
eastern Great Lakes through the extended period and a series of
additional shortwaves will pivot around the flow, however, not
expecting more than a continuation of cloud cover for our area with
these waves as moisture will generally be lacking. Weak ridging on
Saturday evening may provide a brief window for clearer skies. A
stronger clipper system will track from the upper midwest into the
Ohio Valley on Sunday, but at this time looks to bypass SE Michigan
without incident. Stronger ridging returns next Monday and will keep
the early work week quiet. Temperatures through the long term period
will be near seasonal normals with highs in the upper 30s/lower 40s
and lows dipping to the lower/mid 20s.
Extended period of moderate east-northeast flow will persist through
Tuesday, as the area remains positioned between high pressure
anchored over Canada and low pressure developing over the central
Plains. Winds speeds of 15 to 25 knots will remain common during
this time, with gust potential peaking at 30 knots. The steady
onshore flow will maintain elevated wave action across the western
basin, yielding small craft conditions over Outer Saginaw Bay and
the nearshore waters of Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for LHZ421-441.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
Please see the 00Z aviation forecast discussion below.
VFR conditions are expected at area TAF sites through the forecast
period. North to northeasterly winds behind a cold front can be
expected through this evening and overnight at area TAF sites. Winds
will be gusty along the I-35 corridor for a few more hours this
evening, then decrease. Some clouds with bases at or above 6k agl
can also be expected through the period.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Upper air analysis from this morning showed a mid level trough across
the central US with zonal westerly flow across south central Texas.
At 2 pm this afternoon, the surface cold front was essentially along
an Austin to Boerne to Uvalde line, and moving southeast. A few
storms are ongoing across Fort Worth`s CWA, but convection is
struggling to initiate along the front in our area. SPC mesoanalysis
shows about 35-40 knots of effective bulk shear and around 1500 J/kg
of surface based CAPE along and ahead of the front. The issue is the
relative lack of upper level forcing. The HRRR continues to suggest
a couple showers and thunderstorms forming this afternoon, but
coverage will be sparse. POPs have been lowered for this afternoon to
account for the decreasing confidence in convection. Any showers and
storms will progress east/southeastward through the afternoon hours
as the front continues to move through the region. Some showers or
drizzle may linger tonight across portions of the coastal plains.
High pressure and dry air will filter in to the region in wake of the
passing cold front, with northerly winds persisting. Tuesday will be
quite lovely with high temperatures near 70 with mostly sunny skies
and low dewpoints. Lows Tuesday night should drop into the upper 30s
for the Hill Country and the 40s elsewhere.
LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Highs will top out in the 60s for Wednesday as northerly winds
continue to keep temperatures tempered. Winds finally turn southerly
by Thursday afternoon and evening, advecting moisture back into the
region and yielding partly to mostly cloudy skies. These southerly
winds increase on Friday, helping high temperatures get back into the
70s. A weak short wave passing through south central Texas will
yield a slight chance for showers for our eastern counties Friday
through Saturday morning.
A surface low comes across the Texas panhandle into southern Oklahoma
on Saturday, bringing a dryline into the region. Winds shift
southwesterly and clearing skies paired with some compressional
warming out ahead of an approaching cold front will help highs reach
the 80s Saturday afternoon before the front passes north to south on
Saturday afternoon and evening. Surface winds shift
north/northeasterly behind the cold front for Sunday and Monday,
returning temperatures closer to seasonal normals.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 48 71 43 62 41 / 10 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 46 71 41 62 38 / 10 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 49 70 43 64 39 / 10 10 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 43 69 39 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 51 74 49 71 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 44 69 38 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 51 73 45 68 42 / 10 10 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 48 70 42 64 39 / 10 10 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 48 70 43 62 39 / 10 10 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 51 72 46 67 42 / 10 10 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 54 71 46 67 43 / 20 10 0 0 0
Public Service/Data Collection...33
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
902 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018
Cold front and associated line of showers and isolated
thunderstorms continues to work its way across Southeast
Texas this evening with the greatest thunderstorm
concentration off to our east in Louisiana where the
airmass is much more unstable. Mid evening radar is
showing additional storm development behind the front,
so far mainly in/around the CLL area. For the update
this evening, have adjusted rain chances for the
overnight hours with lower values inland and higher
numbers near the coast and offshore. The rest of the
forecast was left mostly untouched. 42
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018/
I did not make any significant changes to this evenings TAF Forecast
still looks on track for cooler temperatures and lower dew points
behind the front.package. The HRRR model has a pretty good
handle on the timing of the cold front that will move across the
Houston metro area between 00-03Z and off the coast between
04-05Z. The showers and thunderstorms associated with the front
this afternoon are decreasing in intensity as the front moves in
to a region dominated by a fairly strong a convective cap.
Winds will become Northerly at 10 to 20 knots behind the front
before leveling off at 8-10 knots overnight. The front may slow as
is moves off the coast, increasing overnight rain chances at KLBX
Tuesday should be VFR at all terminals with mostly high clouds
and light north winds. 44
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018/
NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Surface analysis at 21Z has cold front from Caldwell/College
Station to Crockett with a line of showers and thunderstorms along
it. Storms are pulse type with a few cells peaking in intensity
and then weakening. A new updraft forms and does the same thing.
This may support a pulse strong storm with a downburst and small
hail, but given the trends, that possibility is rather low. Storms
are really struggling against the cap. AMDAR soundings from
airplanes early this afternoon show that cap closer to 750-700mb
rather than 800mb so there is some lift from the front which is
helping to force convection. Still there is plenty of dry air
entrainment which is helping to derail convective growth. With
convection weakening along the front, think that this may be the
trend for the afternoon through the overnight. Front is
undercutting most of the convection making it more elevated, but
it will be tough for a strong/severe storm to occur behind the
front with little support from upper level dynamics. Front still
could trigger storms along the coast with higher moisture but
overall confidence is low for severe weather and heavy rainfall.
SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Thursday]...
Tuesday into Wednesday the upper level pattern becomes amplified
with a deep trough forming over the Great Lakes and Ohio River
Valley. NW flow aloft should keep conditions dry through the
middle of the week with surface high pressure building through the
plains. This should allow for below normal temperatures Wednesday
and Thursday with a warm up expected for the weekend. Overall
rather little in the way of weather impacts for mid week.
LONG TERM [Friday Through Monday]...
Return flow from the Gulf does increase Friday as high pressure
moves east. Moisture return may be a bit too aggressive with the
GFS but still worth a mention of a few showers starting on Friday.
Overall coverage looks to be isolated at best. A short wave
trough in the flow does move across TX and increase rain chances
going into Saturday mainly east of the area into Louisiana.
Another strong trough develops over the Midwest Saturday into
Sunday which helps push a cold front through Saturday night into
Sunday. Dry conditions should continue into early next week with
temperatures near or slightly below normal. Depending upon your
point of view, this may or may not be a good way to start spring
break for most people.
Cold front appears to be on track to move off the coast this eve-
ning. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will likely accompany this
line as it moves into the Gulf waters with moderate/strong north
winds developing in its wake. Small hail/gusty winds may also be
possible with the storms. Small Craft Caution or Advisories will
likely be needed starting overnight through Tue morning. Another
round of flags will be possible Tues night with the passage of a
secondary cold front which could bring colder air across the mar-
ine waters. THis offshore flow is expected to persist thru Thurs
before gradually veering onshore Fri. 41
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 47 71 41 63 38 / 30 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 54 73 45 66 41 / 30 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 59 70 54 65 50 / 50 30 0 0 0
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1030 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018
Issued at 1030 PM EST MON MAR 5 2018
Did a quick update to fine tune temperatures and dewpoints through
the rest of the night. Also, tweaked the PoPs and Wx grids per the
latest radar trends and HRRR guidance. These grid updates have
been sent to the NDFD and web servers, along with the issuance of
a freshened set of zones.
UPDATE Issued at 700 PM EST MON MAR 5 2018
23z sfc analysis shows a warm front lifting through central and
eastern Kentucky. Most of the rain associated with the leading
edge of this boundary is dying out initially in our dry air with
the next batch due in here later in the evening - crossing the
middle parts of the state currently. Skies remain overcast through
the area ahead of the inbound rain with temperatures backing off
of the afternoon highs - now having fallen into the middle and
upper 40s most places. Meanwhile, with light winds, dewpoints are
quite dry in the teens northeast to the lower 30s in the
southwest, while most places are somewhere in the 20s. This
dryness will impact the ability of the rain to make it to the
ground later this evening and overnight ahead of the system`s cold
front as the column starts to moisten up. Have made only minor
adjustments to the ongoing forecast - mainly to add in the latest
obs and trends for the T and Td grids. These have been sent to
the NDFD and web servers.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 431 PM EST MON MAR 5 2018
Initial band of rain showers that entered the I-75 corridor this
afternoon has all but dissipated. A second band is currently
moving eastward out of western Kentucky and will pass through our
area during the overnight period. All of this activity associated
with a developing and complex storm system centered roughly over
the upper Midwest. Mid/upper level features will rotate through
the Great Lakes region and partially phase with energy dropping
southward out of Canada through the period. Closer to the surface
a warm frontal boundary will pass through the area overnight,
bringing with it a likely chance of showers for most locations in
our forecast area. Not far behind this feature a cold frontal
boundary will enter the Commonwealth from the west during the day
Tuesday and speed through eastern Kentucky late Tuesday evening.
Colder air will rush in behind a surface low that tracks straight
up the Ohio Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This
combined with some wrap around moisture will provide a chance for
some rain showers Tuesday evening and eventually some snow showers
by late Tuesday night as colder air continues to pour into the
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 359 PM EST MON MAR 5 2018
A strong upper level closed low will be slowly making its way
across the Ohio Valley. At the surface we see a weakening low
pressure system across the Ohio Valley and a deepening low across
the Mid Atlantic coast. We will keep some upslope like showers
going through the day Wednesday and into Thursday, as another re-
enforcing upper level wave works into the region. There could be
period of mixing or rain showers Wednesday, but most of this will
remain snow under cold advection pattern. There could be some
light accumulations, but this would be light and slushy given the
relatively warm antecedent conditions. Then the more amplified
pattern does flatten some for the weekend, but a low pressure will
progress out of the Plains and warm front will move northward out
of the Tennessee Valley. This will provide a increased chances of
precipitation by later Friday into Saturday. This system will
linger around much of the weekend into early next week and
therefore keep chances of rain showers through much of this
period. There is some concern by the end of the weekend into early
next week on a deepening upper level low introducing more cold air
and the potential for snowfall. There remains enough questions at
this point to stick with the model blends and see where the
surface low track trends.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EST MON MAR 5 2018
Clouds continue to lower and thicken across the area as a weather
system approaches from the west. A band of showers to our west,
over central Kentucky, is creeping eastward. Models show this
initial wave of showers dissipating as it moves into the area.
This is associated with a warm frontal boundary that will lift
northeastward through the area during the overnight, bringing a
round of potentially more substantive rain showers to the area.
CIGS will drop into MVFR territory for several hours, most likely
between about 7Z and 14Z as the latter showers push across the
area. A surface cold front will be right behind the warm front by
a matter of hours and push through eastern Kentucky early Tuesday
morning with VFR conditions quickly returning by noon. Light and
variable winds will become southwest to westerly behind the cold
front early Tuesday morning and increase to around 10 kts by mid
day with some gustiness of up to 20 kts later in the afternoon.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
345 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018
Frontal zone currently located near Shreveport with a line of
strong to severe thunderstorms draped along it from eastern
Arkansas, through northwest Louisiana into central Texas. A few of
the storms prompted Tornado Warning issuances this afternoon near
the LA-AR border with satellite and radar displaying supercellular
storms where the dynamics and thermodynamics are optimized.
Frontal zone receives a surge of cold air advection that should
accelerate the convection and wind shift into the forecast area
before midnight tonight. Convection may lose some intensity around
and after midnight as cells interact with marine layer influences
farther south. HRRR, and to some extent, the RAP show a bit of a
recharge closer to 5 am in the river and south shore parishes for
enhanced rainfall rates, but progressive nature of front should
preclude any flooding concerns. Front pushes of the coast during
the morning with cool high pressure building into the area
throughout the day Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to stay
mainly in the lower to mid 60s much of the day then cool into the
Area will be under the influence of continental high pressure
settling over the Gulf States for dry and cooler to mild
conditions Wednesday through early Friday. As high shifts east
Friday, strong deep-fetched onshore flow onsets into the region
for strong warm air advection in response to developing storm
system in the central Plains that starts out as a Bernoulli
feature in the lee of the Rockies that acquires baroclinicity in
time Saturday. This will likely place much of LA and MS in a very
unstable warm sector that may be supportive of severe
thunderstorms. GFS is actually showing a bore low feature which is
rare for model detection. SPC is addressing this feature in the
day 4-8 outlook and raises uncertainties on whether this feature
materializes to shut inflow to convection that may develop in the
warm sector over land. At this time, will show decent chance of
thunderstorms and see how subsequent model runs perform in regards
to this trop fold driven feature that is currently being
advertized in the GFS. The ECMWF does depict a kink in the
pressure field suggestive of this phenomenon but not as bold in
depicting an actual meso-scale vortex feature like the GFS.
Ceilings have started to lower and increase with some overcast
layers moving in at some of the terminals. Ceilings will continue to
lower as the evening progress and rain begins to move into the area.
By 03Z, rain should begin spreading across the most of the area area
from west to east. Handled with PROB30 groups for most of the rain
before and after the line expected to move through the area. A few
of hours of prevailing rain or thunder is to be expected with the
passage of the line. Conditions should begin to improve by mid-
morning for the westernmost terminals and by early afternoon to the
Front moves off the coast very late tongight, maybe even after
dawn. Thunderstorms are likely to accompany the passage with
broken linear features that may produce gusty winds 35-40 kt. Cold
high pressure builds from the north that will bring an increase in
winds and seas for much of Tuesday before leveling off later in
the day Wednesday. Surface high center settles along the north
gulf coast Thursday and early Friday. High pushes east rather
quickly Friday for a period of strong onshore return flow Friday
into Saturday ahead of a developing spring storm in the Plain
States this weekend.
DSS code: Green.
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or direct
tropical threats; Events of National Significance.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 54 67 41 58 / 90 60 0 0
BTR 56 69 43 60 / 90 70 0 0
ASD 58 65 46 61 / 70 90 0 0
MSY 60 64 51 61 / 60 90 0 0
GPT 62 64 46 62 / 70 90 0 0
PQL 63 65 45 62 / 60 90 0 0
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
920 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018
A cold front has just moved through Memphis and will continue
moving east during the overnight hours. A band of showers
currently stretches from Somerville to Decaturville, Tennessee
while another area, that also has a few embedded thunderstorms,
skirts Northeast Mississippi. These two areas of convection will
continue to push east and should exit the CWA by midnight. Will
leave small chance POPS across portions of Northeast Mississippi,
southeast of Tupelo, in case of a lingering shower. Otherwise,
clearing conditions are expected as much drier air filters into
the region. Lows are expected to be in the upper 30s to the mid
.DISCUSSION... /issued 342 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018/
Temperatures have managed to climb into the upper 50s to low 60s
across most of the area despite quite a bit of cloud cover. Weak
warm advection continues to usher in a moister airmass from
central Alabama and Mississippi. A few light showers linger across
North Mississippi and West Tennessee near the Tennessee River,
but most of the heavier showers from earlier have moved into
Middle Tennessee and North Alabama. We are watching a fairly
strong thunderstorm showing mini-supercell characteristics South
of Little Rock. If this storm continues due East it will track
into the North Mississippi in a little over an hour. The HRRR has
had a pretty good handle on this scenario, but also develops a few
storms farther North. Conditions are not quite as favorable for
strong or severe thunderstorms farther North, but we are certainly
going to have to watch these storms closely.
Tomorrow will be a little warmer, in the low to middle 60s. A dry cold
front will shift across the Midsouth tomorrow resulting in highs
about 10 degrees cooler Wednesday, in the upper 40s to middle 50s.
Winds behind the cold front will be strong...possibly sustained
over 20 mph with gusts to 30mph. We may need a Wind Advisory for
a portion of Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. An
upper level low will track from Iowa into Northwest Kentucky
Tuesday night into early Wednesday. An isolated shower can`t be
totally ruled out Tuesday night into early Wednesday near Paris,
TN...but due to the track of the low...we probably won`t see much
more than increased cloud cover across West Tennessee. It should
remain mostly clear and dry elsewhere. Thursday and Friday
mornings will be cool...maybe even in the upper 20s in Northwest
Tennessee with low to middle 30s across most of the Midsouth.
Highs Thursday will be in the 50s with 60s returning Friday.
Strong Northwest flow will set up during the end of the work week.
We expect strong frontogenesis in the Plains Friday as a shortwave
dives through the mean flow. There is still a lot of uncertainty
with this system over the weekend...but its safe to say it will
be wet. There may be a few thunderstorms, but at this time the
chance of strong to severe storms looks low. The greater concern
will be another round of heavy rain Friday night through Saturday
night or possibly into Sunday. Extended guidance suggests several
inches of rain is possible. Multiple inches of rain would at least
minimally aggravate any ongoing flooding and possibly result in
VFR conditions will prevail through the period at KJBR. MVFR cigs
are possible for the next few hours at KMEM, KMKL and KTUP ahead
of an approaching cold front. Isolated to scattered SHRAs are
possible along and ahead of the front this evening with a few
TSRAs at KTUP. Conditions will improve rapidly after the cold
front passage. South winds at 8-10 kts will shift to the NW at 8-10
kts and diminish overnight. The pressure gradient will increase
on Monday with westerly winds at 15-20 kts with higher gusts.