Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/04/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
555 PM CST Sat Mar 3 2018
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 352 PM CST Sat Mar 3 2018
This dry and seasonably very warm pattern will continue over the
next couple of days. Temperatures are meeting or exceeding the
warmest models, likely due to the antecedent dry/drought conditions.
Already 80 degrees has been hit across the far southwest, as far
north as Garden City this afternoon. With no change in the
pressure gradient, breezy and gusty winds will persist well into
the overnight, promoting moisture advection north and westward
from the lower plains to the high plains overnight, with resultant
stratus expansion after midnight. A dryline will extend farther
west tomorrow, bringing lower dewpoints farther east, perhaps as
far as the highway 183 corridor. Windy conditions and even warmer
highs farther east are expected.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 352 PM CST Sat Mar 3 2018
An upper low will move across the southern periphery of the Northern
Plains Monday, sweeping a cold front toward the southern Plains. The
next few model runs may shed light on how strong winds will be on
Monday and Tuesday, both of which may be near or possible in High
winds. The best opportunity for deep momentum transfer will be
associated with the subsident shortwave vort max monday afternoon.
Tuesday may be strong post frontal gradient setup with gust
closer to the sustained winds. Added counties along the K-96
corridor and points north into a High Wind Watch Monday. SPC had
removed the marginal thunderstorms risk that was over our central
KS counties, in favor of just a general outlook east of 283. Any
convection along the dryline would be isolated and weak given such
shallow moisture.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 554 PM CST Sat Mar 3 2018
Models late today indicating low level moisture will be spreading
into south central and possibly even into portions of western and
north central Kansas towards daybreak. The latest RAP and 18z NAM
had backed off on how deep and how far west/north this moisture
will move tonight before eroding due to mixing but there are some
good indicators that areas of low IFR/MVFR ceilings will be
possible between 09z and 15z in the Dodge City and Hays areas.
Will therefore introduce a period of low MVFR ceilings into the
00z TAFS given this latest trend. After 15z Sunday VFR conditions
can be expected at all four TAF sites.
Gusty south winds at 20 to 25 knots at 23z Saturday will fall back
into the 15 to 20 knot range by 03z Sunday and then continue
through the overnight period. BUFR soundings showing winds near
2000ft AGL level of 45 to near 50 knots overnight so will include
low level wind shear at all TAF sites tonight. Surface wind speeds
will increase into the 25 to 30 knot range between 15z and 18z
Sunday and gradually veer to the southwest.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 355 PM CST Sat Mar 3 2018
Headlines expand each day through Monday for Fire weather. The
dryline that will reach the highway 283 corridor at least on Sunday
is the focus for issuing a red flag warning. We included
additionally Rush and Ford counties to this upgraded fire weather
watch. A Strong cold front that will sweep through the area on
Monday is responsible for an area-wide fire weather watch. Minimum
relative humidities are likely fall into the mid teens or lower
across the entire areas, with very strong northwest winds (possibly
high wind with gusts near 60 mph over portions of west central
Kansas).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 52 78 34 56 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 46 79 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 43 76 31 54 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 47 78 31 55 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 50 78 35 54 / 10 10 10 0
P28 52 67 39 59 / 10 20 20 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ this evening for
KSZ030-031-043>045-061>063-074>077-084>086.
Red Flag Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ to 7 PM CST /6 PM
MST/ Sunday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>064-074>078-084>087.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
KSZ030-031-043>046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Russell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
954 PM CST Sat Mar 3 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 954 PM CST Sat Mar 3 2018
Light rain showers continue to push northeastward through
northwest MN, although they have been decreasing in coverage for
the last half hour. The RAP and highres ARW have some
redevelopment over the same area later tonight, and with more
moisture moving into the area, drizzle will be possible as the
lower layers saturate. Cut POPs a bit in the west for the next few
hours but will continue with light precip mentions across the
entire CWA after midnight. Temps will remain above freezing for
the rest of the evening, but some spots in the west could get down
to near 30 towards early morning so will include a freezing
drizzle mention there.
As for the snow, the NAM has more QPF wrapping up in the system
Monday as colder air comes in, and has quite a bit of snow
accumulation in the northern Red River Valley. Will take a look at
the 00Z GFS and Canadian which are still rolling in.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Sat Mar 3 2018
Warm temperatures across the area this afternoon will continue
into tonight. Low level jet kicks in tonight, mainly into
Minnesota. Guidance hints at fog and stratus formation tonight,
which could result in some drizzle...and maybe even some freezing
drizzle if temperatures are cold enough. Some of this may linger
into Sunday morning. Highs on Sunday look mild as well. If today
was an example, temperatures may be even warmer than what we have
going now. The low level jet remains over the area on Sunday, with
the models showing some instability developing along and south of
the Interstate 94 corridor. SPC placed this area in a risk for
general thunder. Most of the area can expect showers or steady
rain, especially by afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Sat Mar 3 2018
Very challenging forecast continues for the late weekend/early next
week event.
Global models are actually starting to come into decent agreement
with the timing and placement of a Colorado low pressure system
impacting the region. However, varying thermal profiles and
associated precipitation types (and timing the transition between
types) remains the biggest challenge.
As a rainy Sunday comes to an end, temperatures will slowly begin to
cool Sunday night. Continued trending towards the warmest guidance
with easterly winds helping limit temperatures from dropping too
much too quickly. This should help delay precipitation turning to
all snow but also create more headaches when trying to determine
when that transition will take place. Therefore, even a range of
snowfall totals are still pretty difficult to pin down across our
area. Confidence in six or more inches remains highest across the
Devils Lake basin, into the central and northern Red River Valley,
and into northwestern Minnesota (latest Winter Storm Watch area).
However, a degree or two can still be all the difference in totals
in these areas. Further south and east, confidence is much lower on
the higher snowfall totals as these locations will be slower to cool
and therefore less time for snow before the system pulls away.
The potential good news is that winds are looking to become less of
a concern. So the biggest question for winter storm conditions will
mainly hinge on snow amounts rather than blowing/drifting snow and
associated visibility issues.
As the system winds down and conditions improve throughout the day
Tuesday, high pressure will build into the region for the remainder
of the week with temperatures around normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 637 PM CST Sat Mar 3 2018
All sites are VFR with high clouds moving in from the west and a
stratus deck of 3000-5000 ft starting to move into the southern
Red River Valley and impacting KFAR. There will be deteriorating
conditions throughout the period just a question of how quickly
and how bad. Southeasterly winds at 15 to 20 kts with some higher
gusts will continue to bring moisture into the forecast area. The
low level jet will be increasing just east of the Red River, so
included a LLWS mention at the central three TAF sites from around
midnight to Sunday morning. KDVL will see some decreases in
category late tonight, but at this point it seems the lowest
ceilings and visibility will stay west of the rest of the TAF
sites for much of the night. Ceilings will drop to MVFR then IFR
through the day tomorrow. Some BR and then light/rain drizzle will
be possible, with more moderate to heavy rain starting to move in
by the end of the TAF period. Some indications of fog, maybe even
dense, late in the day tomorrow, but not confident enough to
include in TAFs currently so will keep visibility during the
afternoon in the 1-5SM range.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night
for NDZ039-049.
Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through late Monday
night for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-054.
MN...Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night
for MNZ002-003-022>024.
Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through late Monday
night for MNZ001-004>009-013>017.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...JR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
102 PM PST Sat Mar 3 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Snow showers will continue across the Sierra and parts of western
Nevada through tonight. Additional snow accumulations will impact
travel across the region. Most of next week will remain dry, with
next storm forecast to arrive late in the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
The upper low which brought the best winter storm of this season is
sliding south over northern CA/NV today. The cold core of the low
will bring isolated shower activity today, with enhancement to
coverage this evening and overnight as the jet rounds the backside
of the low. Snowfall is likely to enhance in coverage after about 6
pm this evening with localized banding producing areas of moderate
snowfall rates. An additional 2-6 inches is possible in the
eastern Sierra (higher amounts in the western Sierra), with up to
2 inches in northeast CA tonight. For western Nevada and the
Highway 395 corridor eastward in Mono Co, showers will be largely
hit or miss with some locations seeing 1-2" and others receiving
nothing. Lake effect snow does not appear to be as much of a
concern due to weakening westerly flow, however, HRRR guidance has
still been hinting at the possibility from Lake Tahoe. While not
probable, if a lake effect band does set up, we could see
localized higher snow totals stretching across Incline Village,
Slide Mountain, and into Washoe Valley or even Carson City.
While a few stray showers may linger into Sunday morning, overall
conditions will be clearing as the low exits to the east.
Temperatures will remain below average, but will be warming and
with the sun out and light winds, it won`t feel too bad. Fog is
likely to develop in many Sierra valley locations Sunday night,
clearing by midday Monday. Ridging builds into the west the early
part of the week bringing a warming trend and dry conditions. For
those wanting more snow, don`t worry, check out the long term
section for details on what is to come. -Dawn
.LONG TERM...
The next system is forecast to approach the west coast Thursday
and Friday. Guidance also has good confidence in an atmospheric
river getting pushed into the region with this storm.
As usual, gusty winds will precede the system Thursday afternoon
with potential for strong winds (gusts over 50 mph) Friday. Rain
and snow may reach the Sierra Thursday evening with a period of
heavy precipitation possible Friday into early Saturday. This
storm should move through the region quickly, so impacts could
clear out by late in the day Saturday or early Sunday morning.
Snow levels may start as high as 7000-8000 feet then fall as low
as the western NV valley floors Saturday morning. Significant
accumulations are possible in the Sierra, though less than our
most recent event. For the valleys of western Nevada and
northeast California, light accumulations are in the realm of
possibility Friday night and Saturday morning. Brong
&&
.AVIATION...
Low visibility due to blowing snow near KMMH should improve this
evening as winds decrease after 03z.
Another round of snow showers will move through the Sierra and
western NV through Sunday morning. A few inches of additional
accumulation is likely at the Sierra terminals with a chance for
an inch or two of accumulation at the western Nevada terminals,
including KRNO. High resolution models are showing a threat for
Lake effect snow band from Tahoe, which could impact the Carson
City airport. Predictability is low here due to the very fine
scale nature of lake effect bands, through if the band forms
several inches could accumulate at KCXP.
Cloud cover will erode late Sunday with high pressure returning to
the region. Valley fog is likely to develop in the Sierra valleys
Sunday evening and may not burn off until midday Monday. Some fog
should develop in a few western Nevada valleys as well.
Dry conditions return most of next week with the next storm
forecast to move into the region late in the week. Winds will
increase over the Sierra Thursday with a period of rain and snow
Friday into Saturday. Brong
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno