Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/18/18
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
817 PM MST Sat Feb 17 2018
.UPDATE...
Snow has filled in west and north of Billings. Web cams showing
snow coming down at a pretty good pace from Reed Point to Big
Timber to Judith Gap to Roundup. Have adjusted PoPs and snow
amounts slightly to account for radar and model trends. Added
northern Stillwater county to the Advisory based on above. Other
updates made earlier this evening look on track. Winds have picked
up at Livingston and were now just below Advisory criteria.
Expect an continued uptick in winds through the early overnight
hours, then dropping off toward morning. Advisory there in good
shape. TWH
Earlier update: Made a quick update to raise PoPs (the potential
for snow) over much of the western and central zones (including
Billings). Radar was filling in aggressively and short range
models were picking up on that. Also raised snow amounts to the
north as snow was filling in quickly there too. TWH
&&
.SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon...
Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a potent wave traveling
through northern Washington with flow aloft backing from
northwesterly to westerly over southern Montana and northern
Wyoming. This is promoting an onset of downsloping and gap flow
winds along the mountains and generating some moderating
temperatures. Lower spots along the rivers are stuck in the
colder air but VWP in Billings shows southerly winds just above
the first gate and a boundary is shifting northeast along a
Lewistown to Hysham light producing brief snow showers.
Wave over Washington sends a piece of energy that travels across
northern Montana while more energy lingers back over the PacNW and
helps develop a slower moving trough. This pattern sets up a
period of active weather tonight...followed by a relatively lull
late tonight into early Sunday...with another round of weather
Sunday afternoon into Monday. Tonight a strong surface low
expected to track across southern Montana but model solutions vary
by about 80 miles in its track which is a huge difference between
a couple of inches of snow and no snow. GFS is furthest south with
the surface low which appears to be biases by trend to blend the
surface inflection induced by the shortwave into a strong lee
mountain wave signature on the east side of the Beartooth/Absaroka
mountains. RAP NAM and SREF Models all track a low further north
and maintain more downsloping for portions of south central
Montana. Models do agree heaviest area of snowfall will be over
and north of the Bull Mountains extending over towards the Crazy
Mountains. Have lowered precipitation chances and amounts for the
Billings area and locations like Hardin and Hysham but think that
winter weather advisory in affect for areas north and west of
Billings looks good.
As the surface low moves into the region this will support a
period of strong gap flow winds transitioning to a westerly
mountain wave wind situation for the Livingston area and Beartooth
Foothills. Have been watching to see if this will translate to a
wave setting up along the Big Horn mountains but suspect that low
level airmass will cool off enough early this evening to keep it
from mixing down and impacting Sheridan. Do have strong winds at
Burgess Junctions. Winds will let up as the surface low passes by.
Cold front progged to cross the region between 9 pm and 2 am which
will bring the best chance of snow for areas not in weather
advisories but any snow with this front will be short lived.
Exception will be over northern portions of southeast Montana
where surface front may not pass as quickly supporting a bit
longer snow. Advisory for this area still looks good but watching
to see if the snow may not last that long depending on low track.
Sunday morning sees a break in the snowfall but by afternoon
backing flow aloft becomes More southwesterly and pushes moisture
over the area while the arctic airmass deepens. This allows a
light snowfall to develop mainly for Sunday night into Monday
morning which is the greatest period of snowfall for areas like
Billings. The upper flow is showing a bit stronger trough passing
across Montana and moving a bit slower and this sets up better
precipitation amounts for southeast Montana. Will have to watch
that area for a possible advisory Monday.
Other big story is the cold which will be nearly 40 degrees below
normal for Monday. The high temperature is going to struggle to
break zero. borsum
.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...
The GEFS showed uncertainty with the pattern beginning midweek,
while the ECMWF ensembles showed high confidence with the pattern.
That being said, the deterministic models were not in phase
beginning on Wednesday, so used blended guidance for the PoPs.
Generally, the extended period will be quiet with a warming
trend. High amplitude trough from the short-term period will
be over the region on Tuesday. 850 mb temperatures will be a few
degrees higher than they will be on Monday, but highs will still
be in the single digits. Lingering moisture will be over the SE
zones and mountains for a slight chance of snow in these areas.
Models still have troughiness over the area on Wednesday, but are
out of phase with the energy in the trough. GFS showed a slight
chance of snow over the SW mountains, otherwise the forecast will
be dry. Temperatures will climb into the 20s in the W with teens
E. Lee troughing Wed. night into Thursday will support possible
Advisory winds in the gap flow areas. GFS showed a reinforcing
trough for Thursday, while the ECMWF had brief upper ridging.
Blends gave low PoPs N and W of KBIL, and highs in the 20s to low
30s. General troughiness continued on both models Friday through
Saturday with chances for snow showers, mainly in the mountains,
and highs in the 20s and 30s. Arthur
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect strong southwest winds with gusts to 50kts around KLVM will
continue through around 09z. Around KSHR could see strong gusts
to 45 kts briefly as a front moves through after 04z. Expect snow
to continue overnight at all terminals with MVFR to IFR conditions
expected. Heavier showers could produce localized LIFR
conditions. Expect improving conditions at all terminal except
KSHR after 12z. Reimer
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 012/013 906/002 918/009 906/021 008/031 011/031 014/033
77/S 74/S 21/B 11/U 11/B 11/B 11/B
LVM 017/020 910/003 917/010 901/023 013/032 015/033 018/034
77/S 84/S 22/J 11/N 22/J 22/J 22/J
HDN 013/014 902/005 921/010 909/021 004/028 007/029 010/031
66/S 74/S 22/J 11/U 11/B 11/B 11/B
MLS 009/012 905/004 915/005 911/015 001/021 002/022 005/026
82/S 64/S 22/J 11/U 11/B 12/J 11/B
4BQ 016/018 903/005 916/007 911/018 002/027 006/028 009/030
64/S 76/S 32/J 11/U 11/B 11/B 11/B
BHK 010/012 905/003 914/004 912/015 000/022 002/023 004/027
92/S 65/S 22/J 11/U 11/B 12/J 11/B
SHR 020/025 906/005 919/008 914/020 000/028 007/030 010/033
56/S 76/S 32/J 11/U 11/B 11/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 9 AM MST Sunday FOR
ZONES 28>34-41-42-63.
Wind Advisory in effect until 2 AM MST Sunday FOR ZONES
65-66.
Winter Storm Warning in effect until 9 AM MST Sunday FOR
ZONES 67-68.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1049 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain in the region through Sunday then
lift north of the area as a warm front Sunday night into Monday
morning. High pressure will be in control of the region Monday
night into early Wednesday with the next front stalling just
west of the area Wednesday afternoon and remaining nearly
stationary through early Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
All the diurnal showers have died out, so I have lowered pops
through about 11 pm.
After that time, the front will move through from the northwest.
The large band of showers along the front is weakening with
time, and low level water vapor loop indicates very little
support for the maintenance of the line as it moves through
overnight, so pops will be chance at best in the northern part
of the CWA, while it looks like very little chance south of I-20
overnight. I have adjusted the POPs in the forecast accordingly.
As for temps, there is a pretty significant gradient across the
area early this evening, especially in the CSRA with lower 50s
in McCormick County and lower 70s in Burke County at 8 PM.
Therefore, I have had to adjust down the temps in the north,
and raise the temps in the south for the next few hours.
Eventually, the gradient should lessen as the cold front moves
through overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday and Sunday night...Frontal boundary will be stalled over
the southern CSRA early Sunday then begin moving back northward
during the afternoon. The front will move through the central
Midlands Sunday night reaching the NC and SC border by sunrise
Monday. Although there will be increasing moisture once again
with the front the bulk of the moisture will be over the
northern CSRA and western Midlands into the Upstate. As such
have tapered pops Sunday afternoon and night to keep chance pops
along and north of I-20 with slight chance elsewhere. With
limited dynamics do not expect much QPF with less than one tenth
of an inch. Temperatures will be in the middle to upper 60s for
afternoon highs with overnight lows in the lower to middle 50s.
Monday and Monday night...Front will continue moving northward
away from the region as high pressure builds in. This will keep
southeasterly winds across the area with some cloudiness
lingering...however with pwat values well below one inch do not
expect any rain Monday or Monday night. With warm air advection
Monday afternoon high temperatures will range from the upper
60s in the western Midlands and Pee Dee to the upper 70s in the
southern CSRA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models are in good agreement through Saturday with some minor
position differences late in the period. Upper level ridge
will remain in place over the eastern US through the long term
keeping above normal temperatures over the area next week.
Surface and upper level highs will be offshore of the Carolinas
Tuesday and remain nearly stationary through Saturday. This will
keep southerly flow from the surface through the upper levels
with Atlantic and Gulf moisture spreading over the region.
Models indicate a weak upper level trough moving northward from
the Gulf Tuesday night and Wednesday...however this feature is
expected to remain just west of the forecast area. On Thursday a
frontal boundary approaches from the west then stalls over the
Upstate Early Thursday. With the surface high and upper level
ridge over the area the front will remain west of the forecast
area then push northward on Friday. The next cold front will try
and move into the region late Saturday...however will again
struggle to reach the area as the upper level ridge remains in
place. With the moisture interacting with the frontal boundaries
have remained with slight chance pops through much of the long
term...mainly for the western Midlands through the Pee Dee.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Vad wind profile from KCAE radar indicating low-level wind shear
at the CAE/CUB terminals. Guidance suggests lower shear at other
terminals. Shear should diminish after 06z.
Frontal boundary across the Piedmont SC early this evening.
Broken cumulus /strato-cu across the area this afternoon...but
thinning in the AGS/DNL terminal area. A few isolated showers
but focus should remain mainly in the upstate where isentropic
lift stronger. Front moves across the area overnight between 04z
and 09z becoming stationary near the CSRA by morning. The
latest HRRR suggests limited showers along boundary with mainly
VFR ceilings overnight. Winds will shift to the north behind the
front. High pressure will move in behind the front and trapped
low- level moisture could result in ceiling and possible
visibility restrictions Sunday morning mainly south and east of
the CAE terminal and near the front across CSRA. MVFR ceiling
restrictions expected near the front Sunday afternoon near
AGS/DNL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Chance of showers/restrictions at
times Sunday night through Wednesday associated with onshore
flow, isentropic lift, and then another approaching cold front.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
544 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018
.AVIATION...
The region of forcing supporting the area of moderate snow extending
from metro Chicago across northern Indiana as of 22Z will weaken as
it tracks across Se Mi late this evening. Thus the intensity of the
snow is expected to diminish as it crosses the area in the 01Z to
05Z time frame. Nonetheless, some reduction in visibility to IFR in
light snow is possible this evening. With temps holding in the low
30s, some minor (half inch or less) of slushy accumulation is
possible). An MVFR stratus deck is already pushing into portions of
Se Mi in advance of the region of light snow. Expect the lower
clouds to continue to overspread the area this evening. While the
forcing will rapidly push east after 05Z, model soundings with
support of upstream observations indicate periodic low clouds will
affect the region until late (after 14Z) Sun morning with a push of
warmer/drier air from the south arrives.
For DTW...The heaviest snow is expected to fall well south of metro
this evening. Nonetheless, light snow will impact the terminal in the
02Z to 05Z time frame. Any accums will less than a half inch with
sfc temps holding in the 30s.
/DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* High in ceilings below 5000 ft tonight. Moderate Sunday morning.
* High for ptype as snow this evening.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018
DISCUSSION...
Despite the thick canopy of high clouds around today, temperatures
were still able to rise into the low/mid 30s.
Strong upper wave tracking along/close to the southern Michigan
border late today. Bulk of isentropic assent/moisture advection
looks to be used up just to saturate the low/mid levels, and thus if
measurable snow is able to develop this evening, looking at half
inch or less. Narrow axis of 850-700 MB specific humidity in the
1.5-2 g/kg range sliding through during evening, but already quickly
drying out after midnight, lowering to around 0.25 g/kg by 12z
Sunday. Mins dependent on low clouds scattering out or clearing, but
latest RAP indicating higher moisture/rh at 925 MB holding on
through majority of the night, and will thus hold temps in the 20s.
Pronounced upper level ridging/height rises to take place over the
Great Lakes Region during Sunday, with strong low level southwest
flow to lead to significant warming, as 850 mb temps rise to around
zero toward sunset and into the mid single numbers Sunday night.
Airmass will be very dry, as 850 mb dew pt depressions increase to
between 40 to 50 C Sunday evening. However, this will dramatically
change for early next week, as big convergence of Pacific/Gulf of
Mexico surges north and reaches southeast Michigan with PW Values
around 1.25 inches, which looks to be record territory for February.
Strong model consensus amongst Euro Ensemble members indicating
highs in the 60 to 65 degree range on Tuesday across the majority of
southeast Michigan, placing record highs in jeopardy.
One wave of low pressure tracking through on Monday will bring rain
showers, with active frontal zone then lingering over the area, with
cold front looking to slide through Tuesday night or Wednesday
morning. Marginal instability (showalter index falling to around
zero) leads to mention of thunder, but only acting to enhance
rainfall, as surface/near surface will be stable enough to preclude
severe concerns. One to two inches of rain is likely in the moisture
rich environment Monday through Wednesday morning, with 3 inches
certainly possible.
Positive tilted upper level trough axis lingering across the Rockies
Wednesday-Thursday will lead to just a modest shot of cold air (for
February standards) following the cold front, as high pressure (1040+
MB) slowly slides through the northern Great Lakes on Thursday.
Retreating high Thursday night-Friday, but surface ridge axis
potentially holding on long enough during Friday to get through the
day dry before a warm front lifts north.
MARINE...
Winds will remain out of the southwest with gusts topping out around
30 knots through this evening ahead of an advancing cold front.
Expect the higher winds gusts to be tempered a bit due to extensive
ice cover. Winds will veer to a more west-northwest direction in the
wake of the front overnight, but will not last long as southerly
flow kicks back in Sunday afternoon as a warm front lifts northward
through the Great Lakes. Winds gusts will again remain around 30
knots Sunday evening as the front lifts through the region.
HYDROLOGY...
A strong warm and moist advection regime will kick into gear Monday
through Wednesday ahead of a slow moving front. This warming and wet
trend will result in a full melt off of present snow cover across
southeast Michigan. Several periods of rainfall can be expected
during this time with widespread rainfall totals of 1-2" over the
course of Monday to Wednesday. There is still some uncertainty with
where the higher rainfall amounts will fall, but there is potential
for some locations to near 3 inches of rainfall where stronger
pockets of convection occur. While the melting snow will unlikely be
enough to support flooding, the potential for rainfall in
combination with the snow melt could cause some rises in area rivers
and streams. Ice breakup on area rivers and streams caused by warmer
temperatures will also be something to keep an eye on, which could
exacerbate any local flooding issues.
CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures will be possible across much of southeast
Michigan Tuesday. Here is a look at record high temperatures for
Tuesday, February 20th:
Detroit 63 (2016)
Flint 61 (1930)
Saginaw 62 (1930)
With the high moisture content, good chance to break the high
minimum records for February 20th as well:
Detroit 47 (1930)
Flint 45 (1930)
Saginaw 46 (1930)
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......AA
HYDROLOGY....AA
CLIMATE......SF
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
900 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018
.UPDATE...
The main update with the forecast tonight is to account for a
farther south progression of a cold front than previously
advertised. The KHGX radar shows this boundary stretching from
Vanderbilt to Bonney to Texas City and with the KHGX VAD wind
profiler showing very light winds above the surface doing little
to inhibit the southward movement, expect density differences to
drive this boundary off the coast within the next 2-3 hours. As
this front cleared the NWS Houston office, the temperature dropped
7 degrees within 30 minutes. Given these short-term trends, have
lowered low temperatures a few degrees into the upper 40s to near
60. A brief northerly wind shift associated with this boundary
moving off the coast may result in a brief respite in sea fog
(detailed in the marine section below) before winds veer to the
east sometime in the 3-6 AM timeframe.
SPC mesoanalysis shows the 925 MB front located farther north,
roughly north of Interstate 10, and convergence along this feature
may produce isolated to scattered showers through the overnight
hours north of a Columbus to Liberty line. Patchy radiation fog
may also be possible as dew point depressions decrease overnight
through mid morning, with best chances west of a Madisonville to
Katy to San Luis Pass line.
Huffman
&&
.MARINE...
A weak boundary continues to move toward the coast. Models are
not in great agreement but the latest HRRR shows the boundary
making it into the coastal waters before becoming diffuse later
tonight. North winds will develop in the wake of the front and
slightly drier air will likely make it into the waters. The drier
air will help erode the fog and the north winds should push any
remaining fog away from the coast. There should be some brief
improvement in visibility between 04-08z. East winds will develop
after midnight and become SE on Sunday. Fog is expected to
redevelop between 08-10z and persist intermittently through Sunday
morning. Onshore winds will strengthen Sunday afternoon as low
pressure over eastern Wyoming deepens. The low will push east on
Monday/Tuesday and drag a cold front into the state. The front
will probably stall and onshore winds will persist into Wednesday.
Periods of sea fog will likely hang around during the first half
of next as warm and moist air continues to flow over the cooler
shelf waters. The long S-SE fetch will bring slightly warmer water
toward the Upper Texas Coast and this may mitigate the threat for
dense sea fog early next week. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/
AVIATION...
A weak front extended from about Liberty to downtown Houston and
then along the I-69 corridor to about Edna. Showers were beginning
to develop along this feature. Short term guidance shows the
boundary remaining nearly stationary and gradually becoming
diffuse. Low ceilings expected to develop areawide as deep mstr
builds beneath a capping inversion. LIFR/IFR cigs expected late
tonight into Sunday morning with a gradual improvement to MVFR by
afternoon. Sea fog will be an issue along the coast and visibility
will fall below a mile at times at KGLS and probably KLBX. 43
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 52 71 64 79 66 / 30 20 20 20 20
Houston (IAH) 57 74 65 78 67 / 30 20 20 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 60 71 64 73 66 / 20 20 20 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Sunday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.
&&
$$
Discussion...14
Aviation/Marine...43
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
854 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018
.UPDATE...A Gulf Coast dense sea fog bank along the west coast of
Florida has moved north and northeast with light southwesterly
flow. This fog is just upstream of the Suwannee Valley and just
has started to encroach the western part of Suwannee County this
mid evening which is evident on the GOES-16 Night-time
Microphysics contrasts. Hence has put out a Dense Fog Advisory
for Columbia, Gilchrist, Hamilton, and Suwannee Counties this
mid evening through 10 am. Then the fog will continue to advect
during the post mid-night hours into Clinch, Ware and Echols
Counties. As the nocturnal hours progress into the pre-dawn hours
fog is expected to overspread most areas toward the coast and then
nearshore waters. Will watch the progression of the fog advection,
for potential additional advisories downstream, east of 301. The
HRRR hourly model runs continue to show this trend.
A low chance of showers across SE GA for Sunday with mostly
cloudy to partly cloudy skies across NE FL once morning fog and
low stratus begin to lift and break apart. The cold front will
shift west more as a backdoor cold front with NE flow pressing
down the local Atlantic coast through Sunday afternoon as high
pressure builds NE of the region.
&&
.AVIATION... Mainly prevailing VFR under light SSW flow 5-8 kts
for area terminals this evening. Low stratus and fog are starting
to encroach the Suwannee Valley. As the night-time hours
progress low stratus and fog will cotinue to further advect
inland from the Gulf Coast region bringing restrictions from GNV
to VQQ first between 05-08Z where there is elevated confidence of
LIFR and VLIFR conditions. Restrictions of IFR expected to impact
the coastal terminals after 09Z through 14-15Z Sunday. Winds will
transition to NE through Sunday, impacting SSI first by late
morning, then the wind shift progressing down the coast into the
afternoon which could bring sea fog lingering over the Atlantic
inland during Sun evening potentially impacting SGJ.
&&
.MARINE...WSW winds this evening ahead of the approaching cold
front. Fog advection from the Gulf will affect the nearshore
waters during the pre-dawn hours into the early morning daylight
hours. There might be a temporary abatement of the fog over the
near-shore between 10 am and 1 pm. This fog will likely re-
settle in over the nearshore waters during the afternoon hours
over the adjacent waters as onshore flow develops. The cold front
will slowly settle across the local waters Sunday as high pressure
builds northeast of the region. Onshore flow persists through
this upcoming week as high pressure dominates northeast of region.
Headlines are not expected this forecast period.
Rip Currents: Low risk Sunday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 61 76 59 82 / 10 20 10 10
SSI 60 71 58 73 / 0 20 10 10
JAX 59 77 58 80 / 0 10 10 10
SGJ 60 74 60 77 / 0 10 10 10
GNV 58 80 58 83 / 0 10 10 0
OCF 58 81 60 84 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EST Sunday for Alachua-
Baker-Bradford-Union.
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for Columbia-Gilchrist-
Hamilton-Suwannee.
GA...Dense Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EST Sunday for Clinch-
Echols-Ware.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Cordero/Shashy/Peterson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
844 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018
.DISCUSSION...
Main forecast concern tonight will continue to be fog development
late in the overnight hours through early morning Sunday. MOS
guidance continues to show best potential for dense fog/stratus
moving into Lake County, and eastward through the I-4 corridor
and toward the Volusia coast. Earlier runs of the local WRF and
HRRR also agreed quite well on this scenario. However, the most
recent runs of both models have now backed off on fog development
quite significantly, keeping any areas of dense fog west and north
of Lake and Volusia counties.
With favorable setup of light winds and mostly clear skies in
place, will keep areas of fog mentioned in the forecast for
northern areas, with patchy fog farther south. However, the recent
trends in the models do leave room for a little more uncertainty
in amount of fog coverage for late tonight. Regardless, localized
visibilities of a quarter of a mile or less will at least be
possible. Favorable radiational cooling conditions should again
allow temperatures to fall into the upper 50s to low 60s over
much of the area overnight.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected to persist through 06z, then
fog/stratus development overnight will reduce cig/vis as low as
IFR/LIFR through early Sunday morning. Best potential for these
conditions will be across northern TAF sites, with more tempo
reductions to IFR/MVFR from patchy ground fog from KMLB-KSUA. Fog
and stratus will burn off into the morning, with VFR conditions
then expected to prevail through the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...There is a potential for dense fog to push off the
Volusia county coast again early Sun morning. Otherwise, boating
conditions will remain favorable tonight through tomorrow with
winds 10 knots or less and seas 2-3 feet. A slight increase in
onshore flow to 10-12 knots is indicated Sun afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 59 78 62 81 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 59 84 62 84 / 0 0 10 0
MLB 61 81 65 81 / 0 10 10 0
VRB 59 82 65 81 / 0 10 10 0
LEE 62 83 63 84 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 60 82 62 84 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 62 83 64 84 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 58 82 64 81 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Weitlich/Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
439 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 410 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2018
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated cyclonic wrly flow through the
n cntrl CONUS around a deep mid/upper level low west of Hudson Bay.
A shortwave trough over WI supported an area of light snow that has
from far srn Upper MI through ern WI into nrn IL. Drier low level
air further north has limited coverage of the pcpn into the rest of
the cwa. Another signficant upstream shortwave was moving through
the Pacific Northwest.
Tonight, any remaining snow over the far s or se cwa will move out
during the rest of the afternoon, per radar/satellite trends.
Otherwise, favorable radiational cooling conditions overnight should
allow temps to drop into the single digits over inland locations
before mid/high clouds increase from west to east late.
Sunday, a broad area of WAA and isentropic lift will strengthen as
the shortwave move through the nrn plains. Models suggest that the
heaviest band of snow will move through nrn MN into wrn Lake
Superior and mainly the Keweenaw Peninsula. There is still some
uncertainty with the snowfall amounts as the ECWMF/NAM and
regional GEM remained or trended farther north compared to the GFS
with higher QPF axis. So, an advisory was issued only for the
Keweenaw where the highest amounts are likely. With 2-3g/Kg
moisture avbl and a period of intense lift and mid level fgen,
local amounts in the 3 to 6 inch range will be possible. Farther
south amounts should range from 1 to 3 inches over most of the
rest of the nrn half of Upper Michigan.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 438 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2018
Active period of winter weather still expected into Tuesday. Ptype
may be more of an issue for more areas, especially Mon night into
Tue.
Summary on expected weather and possible headlines Mon into Tue:
Headlines will likely be needed over all of Upper Michigan at some
point. A winter storm warning for just warning criteria snowfall
seems unlikely, however with models trending toward more mixed
precipitation and ice, could see warning at some point due to
moderate wet snow amounts and/or significant ice accums,
especially south and east. Would imagine most headlines for this
event will come out later tonight or on the dayshift on Sunday.
Lead system that brings snow over mainly northwest Upper Michigan
exits after midnight over eastern forecast area. Could see brief
uptick in the snow east of Marquette toward eastern U.P. with
increasing moisture advection and continued lift in right entrance
region of jet over northern Ontario and Quebec. Could see some light
freezing drizzle as the light snow tapers off and before next round
of light snow begins to move in over western U.P. late.
Mon into Mon night system still looks complicated to project mainly
due to two jet streams (polar and sub-tropical) that will be coming
together to bring the system into the Upper Great Lakes. Most of the
precip initially upstream of Upper Great Lakes on Mon morning will
be along sub-tropical jet in form of rain/freezing rain across mid
Mississippi River Valley while the main area of snow will be
expanding from the northern Plains to south half of MN and into
north half of WI on front side of larger troughing aloft and in H85-
H7 gen area in right entrance of polar jet from northern Plains to
Quebec. Though main sfc low and even sfc trough stays well to the
south of Upper Michigan (only as far north as southern WI into lower
Michigan) Mon into Mon night, fgen forced snow enhanced by
divergence aloft from upper jet and convergence along H85 trough
axis from near Omaha to south central Upper Michigan should expand
across Upper Michigan through the day. Potential for heavy snow
looks on the lower side as strongest moisture advection stays south
and east of Upper Michigan closer to the sfc low/trough and there is
not a stronger shortwave trough/deformation area that lifts across
the area. At this point, seems best shot at seeing warning snowfall
amounts will be over western Upper Michigan where there is less
chance of any mixed precip throughout and where SLRs may end up a
bit higher. WPC probabilistic winter guidance shows highest
probabilities for seeing at least high end advy for those areas as
well.
Another wrinkle that is starting to show up is that most models now
show lack of ice nucleation occurring outside of when main area of
snow moves through late Mon morning into Mon afternoon. If that is
true, there would be more freezing drizzle or light freezing rain
over at least the south and east late Mon aftn through Mon night.
Some guiance would have freezing precip even as far west as Iron to
Baraga county on Mon night. That is a change from recent model runs.
Next low pressure wave lifts along the existing sfc boundary late
Mon night into Tue. Possible that our far southeast zones may see
0.10 to 0.20 inch of qpf from this next segment of this drawn out
system. Soundings indicate lack of ice aloft though and even if
there is deeper moisture, a farther north warm layer aloft is now
showing up. ECMWF increases H85 temps to around +5c over eastern
forecast area on Tue. While that warm layer aloft is present, sfc
temps are in the 20s. Freezing rain looks likely or maybe sleet if
warm layer is more 1-3c. Even more significant icing may occur
farther south into WI deeper into the heavier qpf from this next
wave. But, we are looking at more freezing rain and icing issues
even into our area. Widespread wintry precip should exit eastern
area Tue night with just some light lake effect possible into Wed as
cooler air moves across. High pressure will bring drier weather late
this week before another system brings mainly light snow to the area
by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 115 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2018
MVFR cigs at KCMX adied by some lake moisture in wsw flow are
expected to give way to VFR conditions by mid afternoon as drier air
moves in. VFR conditions should then prevail at at all sites into
Sunday morning. Light snow will move into the west at KIWD/KCMX by
late Sun morning with MVFR and possibly IFR vsby by the end of the
period. Cigs should remain MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 410 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2018
A few southwest gale force gusts to 35 knots are expected Sunday
night over eastern Lake Superior. Otherwise, winds are expected to
stay below gales through the rest of the forecast period.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for
MIZ001-003.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
Gale Warning from 4 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
849 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018
.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Rain is well clear of the Cumberland Plateau and the rest of the
night will be dry for the entire area. Looking at the Nighttime
Microphysics RGB, clearing line is just north of the area.
HRRR shows more clearing than the previous forecast. Sky grids
were lowered to reflect this trend. Hourly temperatures are warmer
than forecasted at this point and were adjusted. Still think
we`ll get to forecasted lows given the trend of less cloud cover.
Dew point depressions should fall as we get toward dawn allowing
for some patchy fog development.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Cigs ranging from MVFR to LIFR at airports this evening will clear
out overnight with SKC returning. However, this will lead to fog
formation with MVFR/IFR vis and possibly lower towards sunrise.
Light west winds this evening will become northerly overnight then
east/southeast on Sunday.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......Reagan
AVIATION........Shamburger
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
845 PM MST Sat Feb 17 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM MST Sat Feb 17 2018
Winds a little slow to increase this evening, though high mountain
pass obs were finally beginning to trend upward at 03z. Latest few
runs of the HRRR suggest strongest winds may not occur until after
sunrise on Sun, with a peak in mid to late morning. Won`t change
any highlights at this point, though may need to decrease wind
speeds somewhat overnight in the next update if downslope flow
continues to be slow to develop.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM MST Sat Feb 17 2018
...High Winds to return for the southeast mountains and adjacent
eastern slopes mainly west of I-25...
...Critical Fire Weather Conditions expected for the southeast
plains and lower slopes of the southeast mountains on Sunday...
Challenge in short term is how far down the slopes high winds will
progress again overnight. With upper low digging southward into the
Pacific NW tonight, flow aloft shifts to a more west southwesterly
component. This is a more favorable cross barrier flow for much of
the southeastern mountains. However various high res models have
differing solutions on the development of a mountain wave and how
far down the slopes it progresses. The local 4 km WRF and 3km NAM
Nest suggests strong downslope winds will spread from the higher
peaks into portions of the I-25 corridor from late tonight through
Sunday morning...while HRRR is more conservative and keeps winds
confined to the higher peaks. Model cross-sections look best across
northern areas (El Paso county) with a good amount of reverse shear
developing towards morning though there isn`t much of a mountain top
inversion. However there doesn`t necessarily have to be as we saw
last night and models are not good at handling these details anyway.
Leaning on various high res models have upgraded the high wind
watch to a warning, though wasn`t getting enough coverage in the
west central portions of Las Animas county to warrant an upgrade
there. In the El Paso county area...think focus will shift to the
southwest side of Colorado Springs and Fort Carson area towards dawn
given the more southwesterly component aloft. Another area to watch
will be the I-25 corridor south of Colorado City. The west side of
Custer county into the wet mountain valley could also see a period
of damaging winds overnight according to WRF and NamNest. Will keep
overnight lows on the warm side to account for downslope winds which
are likely to continue overnight to at least some degree along/west
of I-25.
For Sunday looks like mountain wave parameters should break down by
late morning...though winds will remain strong as upper jet
translates in aloft. Should start to see moisture increase along
the Continental Divide during the afternoon with snow developing
during the late afternoon. Main brunt of the accumulations holds
off until later Sunday night. Meanwhile...gusty winds will spread
into the plains during the afternoon. Temperatures across the
plains will warm into the 70s...well above normal for this time of
year, and combined with dry surface dew points will lead to
widespread critical fire weather conditions. Have upgraded the Fire
Weather Watches to Red Flag Warnings. Have added zone 225 to
account for the lower eastern slopes along the I-25 interface as
winds will be particularly strong in this area. -KT
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 353 PM MST Sat Feb 17 2018
...Windy with Snow and Blowing Snow across the ContDvd Monday...
Sunday night-Tuesday...Current models continue to dig the Pac
Northwest system into the Great Basin and lift it out across Rockies
in the late Sunday night through Tuesday timeframe, with only slight
differences in timing. The ECMWF still is a tad slower with this
system, which allows for shallow cool airmass to filter across the
Eastern Plains through the day Monday, where as the GFS and the NAM
solutions keep the cooler air north of the the area with strong west
to southwest flow in place across the Southeast Plains.
All solutions point to increasing snow along and west of the ContDvd
Sunday night, with snow likely across the ContDvd Monday and Monday
night. With strong orographic southwest winds of 25 to 50 mph, have
upgraded winter storm watch for the Eastern San Juan Mountains to a
warning from 06z Monday through 12z Tuesday. Snow amount of 8 to 14
inches are expected, with localized amounts up to 20 inches possible
on favored southwest peaks. We have also issued winter weather
advisories for lower Rio Grande Valley (3 to 6 inches) and for the
Sawatch and Mosquito Ranges (4 to 8 inches, locally up to a foot)
for the same timeframe. Strong and gusty southwest winds through the
day Monday becomes more westerly Monday night and Tuesday, with
difficult travel expected across the higher mountain passes in snow
and blowing snow.
Further east, the increasing southwest flow aloft will again lead to
potential for strong downslope winds across the Southern Mountains
and lower eastern slopes Sunday night into early Monday morning,
with model cross-sections indicating a mean critical layer mainly
across the Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Current grids
indicating gusts in the 60 to 70 mph range across this area, and
later shifts may need to go with wind hightlights. Monday
temperatures and winds across the plains are tricky at this time,
with another big bust potential with a shallow cold airmass moving
across the Plains. As mentioned earlier, the faster GFS and NAM have
an induced surface low across the Southeast Plains Monday, keeping
strong and gusty west to southwest winds across the I-25 corridor
and gusty southerly winds across the far Eastern Plains, where as
the slower EC solution has a weaker low near TAD Monday morning,
which allows for shallow cold airmass to filter across the Plains
through the day. Have tried to blend towards this cooler solution,
with temps in the 40s and 50s along and north of the Highway 50
Corridor Monday morning, with temps then cooling into the afternoon.
If the GFS and NAM solutions are more correct, there will be
possible critical fire weather conditions across most of the plains
on Monday, with current grids indicating possible fire weather
highlights for Las Animas County and possibly southern portions of
Baca County.
By Monday night, snow spreads across the high mountain valley and
into the Eastern Mountains, with generally light accumulations
expected. Shallow cold airmass spreads across all of the southeast
plains with stratus banked up across the lower eastern slopes,
leading to chances of light snow across the I-25 Corridor and the
eastern plains through the day Tuesday, with the overrunning
pattern. Cool upslope flow across the plains on Tuesday will keep
highs in the 20s and 30s areawide.
Wednesday-Saturday...Continued west to southwest flow aloft will
lead to a slow warming trend across the area through the end of the
work week. Dry conditions look to return to Eastern Colorado, with
light snow possible across the ContDvd through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 353 PM MST Sat Feb 17 2018
Synopsis:
Mountain wave activity brings gusty and variable wind conditions and
low level wind shear to the forecast points. See discussion below
for details.
KALS:
VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period. Expect
gusty winds during the daytime hours.
KCOS:
High resolution models are resolving a mountain rotor forming over
KCOS during the overnight hours. During this time period, expect low
level wind shear. Gusty winds are expected during the afternoon
hours tomorrow. VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast
period.
KPUB:
Pueblo should be far enough west from any mountain rotor activities,
but expect strong winds for the majority tomorrow, gusting in the
afternoon hours. VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast
period.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM MST Sunday for COZ222-
225>237.
High Wind Warning until noon MST Sunday for COZ072>075-078>082-
084-085-087.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM Sunday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
for COZ058-060-061-065>067.
Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM Sunday to 5 AM MST Tuesday for
COZ068.
&&
$$
UPDATE...EP
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KTS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1012 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure system exits overnight. High pressure crosses Sunday.
Warm front Monday, and then a cold front midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1010 PM Saturday...
Cancelled winter weather advisory for snow for the higher
terrain of Nicholas County, and the lower terrain of Pocahontas
County. Left it in effect until its 09Z expiration time for the
higher terrain of Randolph, Pocahontas and Webster counties for
upslope snow accumulations there of up to two inches.
As of 805 PM Saturday...
With last small batch of precipitation with vort max exiting,
and having not amounted to much after all, the WSW for snow
has been cancelled for the remainder of the lowlands, and the
higher terrain of the central WV mountains. The WSw continues
for the northern mountains, mainly the higher terrain therein.
As of 735 PM Saturday...
Flood watch cancelled as no new flood warnings are anticipated,
and western portions of the lowland winter weather advisories
for snow are cancelled with the exodus of the snow, and
temperatures rising back above freezing for the time being.
The PoPs have been adjusted to reflect the faster exodus of the
precipitation, and temperatures again fine tuned as they
recover slightly with the precipitation exodus.
A much nicer day is on the way Sunday, as high pressure crosses.
As of 355 PM Saturday...
Adjusted surface temperatures per current trends via the Hires
arw and nmm, and NAMnest. Now have snow totals of 2 to 4 inches
in the middle Ohio Valley, northern WV and higher elevations of
the central mountains, and 4 to 6 and locally higher in the
northern mountains. Used 12:1 snow ratios from WPC given reports
of large flakes suggestive of good dendritic growth. WSW for
snow expanded eastward and southward.
As of 320 PM Saturday...
A developing sfc low pressure system will cross the area from
southwest to northeast through this evening. This system will
bring short periods of heavy snow across southeast OH, and northern
WV through this evening. There is a Winter Weather advisory for
these areas through 2 AM.
South to southwest flow is causing a warm wedge west of the
mountains where most pcpn is falling as liquid. Colder
temperatures across southeast OH and the higher elevations of WV
will see a mix bag of pcpn or all snow. A period of FZRA will
be possible along the eastern slopes of WV due to cold air
damming east of the mountains. Therefore, another Winter
Weather advisory is in effect for FZRA and mix pcpn through 4
AM. A flood watch continues in effect for the southern coal
fields, including Putnam and Kanawha counties of WV and extreme
southwest VA through 4 AM Sunday.
Used consensus of models with some weight of the HRRR model for
temperatures through the period.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 PM Saturday...
The warm front will push north across the area on Monday. Any
precip amounts will be fairly light, so not expecting more
issues with flooding from this wave. We will be well within the
warm sector on Tuesday and temps will be climbing into the
80s...yes the 80s. Forecast temps are in the record high range
for climate sites -- and could be flirting with record highs for
the month of February as a whole.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 255 PM Saturday...
By mid week we will have a cold front pushing into the Ohio
Valley from the west. Timing differences continue between the
model guidance, but starting to look more like a late Wednesday
afternoon or night passage. Have introduced thunderstorm
possibility as well for this period as forecast soundings are
indicating marginal instability.
The front gets hung up and stalls and this could make for the
possibility for more heavy rainfall through the end of the
week. Still too early to tell at this time, but based on current
antecedent conditions, flooding is looking like it may be a
problem again.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 735 PM Saturday...
MVFR to even VFR conditions begin the period east of the Ohio
River, until the wind shifts to the west tonight as low pressure
exits. Mainly IFR conditions begin the period along the Ohio
River.
IFR conditions, mainly on ceilings, will spread east overnight
with the wind shift to the west. Expect spotty light rain and
drizzle in the lowlands, with snow and sleet also possible in
the mountains.
Not much fog is anticipated as the precipitation exits
overnight, and ceilings will gradually come back up, with MVFR
or better predominant ceilings toward dawn Monday, perhaps a bit
beyond dawn in the northern mountains. MVFR morning cu ceilings
will lift and break up by late morning, and high pressure will
provide a VFR Sunday afternoon.
Southerly surface flow east of the Ohio River will shift to west
throughout the area by 0-3Z, and become a bit gusty in the
mountains overnight. Surface flow will diminish to light west
Sunday morning, and then back to light south Sunday afternoon.
Moderate southwest flow aloft tonight will become moderate west
overnight, moderate northwest by dawn Sunday, light north after
daybreak Sunday morning, and then light south Sunday afternoon.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improving conditions may vary
overnight, though more confident in MVFR morning cu Sunday
morning.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 02/18/18
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H M H L H H H H L
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L M M L L L M H M
PKB CONSISTENCY L M M L H H H H H H H L
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L M M M H H H H H M
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in showers late Wednesday or Wednesday night into
Thursday.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for WVZ522-523-
526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...MPK/AB
LONG TERM...MPK/AB
AVIATION...TRM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
934 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018
.DISCUSSION...
Latest surface analysis indicates high pressure centered over Arkanas
this evening with light and variable wind across much of our forecast
area. Deepening trough through the Plains will result in veering low
level wind overnight then strong southerly wind Sunday. Valley fog
has already resulted in variable visibilities across portions of wrn
AR this evening, which will likely continue overnight. Low clouds
should develop into sern Oklahoma late tonight, and then across
portions of central/nern OK Sunday. Rain chances still look to return
late Sunday/Sunday night with widespread activity Monday-Tuesday.
Ongoing forecast is trending well this evening and no changes needed
at this time.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 534 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/
DISCUSSION...
The discussion for the 00Z TAF forecast can be found below.
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
The latest HRRR is hinting at the potential for some valley fog at
FSM tonight. Since FYV is prone to valley fog as well, especially
after the recent rain event, have inserted tempo groups at both
sites for IFR fog around midnight into the early morning hours.
Increasing high cloud overcast and south to southeast winds
should lead to its demise Sunday morning. The HRRR also suggests
that the initial northwestward surge of low clouds/moisture will
miss our area to our west initially on Sunday. Given some
uncertainty, few to sct low cloud groups were maintained in the E
OK TAFs. VFR conditions will prevail for the most part on Sunday,
with potential for low end VFR cigs by the end of the day. Strong,
gusty S winds will also prevail on Sunday.
Lacy
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 413 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/
DISCUSSION...
A rather unsettled weather pattern will prevail over the next
week, with several rounds of much needed rainfall expected.
Despite the overnight rainfall, fire danger will be a concern
Sunday as gusty southerly winds develop, and temperatures warm
into the 60s. Low level moisture will rapidly return north Sunday
afternoon and evening, and scattered elevated convection may
develop overnight Sunday night and persist into Monday evening.
The most widespread and heaviest rainfall is expected late Monday
night and Tuesday as a strong cold front drops south across the
area. A few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible,
but locally heavy rainfall looks to be the main concern.
Some drier air will work into parts of northeast Oklahoma Tuesday
night, but an upper level disturbance will spread light
precipitation back over the area during the day Wednesday. Surface
temperatures will likely remain below freezing across the northern
part of the forecast area, so the precipitation will fall as light
freezing rain in that area.
A warming trend will develop Thursday and last into the weekend,
but unsettled weather will continue, with rain chances returning
Thursday night into the weekend.
Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 35 63 57 71 / 0 0 40 50
FSM 34 62 54 71 / 0 0 40 50
MLC 36 63 58 70 / 0 10 40 50
BVO 29 64 55 73 / 0 0 40 50
FYV 28 59 53 67 / 0 0 40 50
BYV 31 60 52 68 / 0 0 40 50
MKO 35 63 56 70 / 0 0 40 50
MIO 32 62 54 69 / 0 0 40 50
F10 36 63 57 70 / 0 0 40 50
HHW 38 62 56 72 / 0 10 40 50
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION....30