Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/15/18

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
922 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track to our north on Thursday. A cold front will approach Thursday night into Friday and cross the area Friday evening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 9:22 pm update: Stratus is seen on satellite and has spread east across northern Maine this evening. It covers most of the area from northern Somerset County to central Aroostook County. There are some breaks in the clouds, and as of 9 pm some holes in the clouds were visible at WFO Caribou. The cloud deck is at around 2500 to 3500 feet. Across the remainder of the CWA the sky is clear. The stratus may expand south into parts of interior Downeast by morning, but it is also possible that the clouds never make it south of Lincoln by morning. Adjustments were made mainly to the sky grids based on the latest satellite trends and observations. Some tweaks were also made to the hourly temperatures and overnight lows. Previous discussion... Mild weather will continue into Thursday. Temps have risen well into the 30s across much of the CWA w/sites across Downeast seeing lower 40s. So, some melt was occurring. The latest satl imagery showed some partial clearing and this is expected through the evening. Temps will drop off after sunset for a while given dewpoints still in the teens and lower 20s. Temps look like they will level off later at night as a light ssw wind sets in. The NAM and RAP soundings both show an inversion setting up overnight w/moisture getting trapped below 2000 feet. Given this and the ssw wind aloft, decided to bring some low clouds into the region overnight into Thursday. The short range guidance including the GEM, HRRR and GFS show some light precip moving into western areas overnight into early Thursday morning. This precip looks to be in response to disturbance aloft moving across the region. There could be a brief period of light freezing drizzle or flurries across the western and far northern areas into Thursday morning. Most of this activity will be aloft and very light. Not expecting any problems w/this potential. Temps overnight are expected to be in the 20s overnight. Some low lying sites could see upper teens given the inversion. For Thursday, temps will start their rise as a warm front lifts across the region during the day. This front looks like it will trigger some light snow showers or rain showers especially in the afternoon. There could be some light freezing drizzle in the morning. Best chance for anything measurable will be across the far north and west. Afternoon temps are forecast to reach well into the 30s across the northern 1/2 of the CWA w/lower 40s central and Downeast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low pressure will lift to our northeast Thursday night while another weak area of low pressure tracks east across the Gulf of Maine. Expect mainly cloudy skies Thursday night with the chance of northern snow showers and rain or snow showers down east. A arctic boundary will cross the region on Friday with snow showers across northern and central areas and perhaps a snow squall. Much colder air will follow the frontal passage for Friday night. After an unseasonably warm Thursday night with lows only in the low to mid 30s, low temperatures Friday night will fall into the single digits below zero across the far north and the single digits above zero across much of the rest of the area by Saturday morning. Saturday is shaping up as an unseasonably cold but dry day as high pressure builds east. Highs on Saturday will range from the mid to upper teens north and low to mid 20s down east. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Saturday night we will need to keep any eye on on area of low pressure that will be moving east of the mid atlantic coast. 12z operational models keep the low well south of the Gulf of Maine putting the down east coast on the northern edge of the precipitation shield. There are some ensemble members that favor a track a bit closer to the area. A model blended solution yields chance pops reaching all the way into northern areas by later Saturday night and Sunday morning. In any event, the system will be a progressive open wave with any snow early Sunday diminishing by afternoon. Expect fair weather Sunday night and Monday as high pressure builds back in. Forecast confidence for the early to middle part of next week is not all that great. Uncertainty exists with regard to the extent of the upper ridging along the east coast next week and just where a frontal boundary will set up, separating much milder air to our south and colder air to our north. The latest EC is stronger with the ridging into northern New England than the latest GFS is. Just exactly where the boundary sets up will determine the type and extent of any precipitation. This is way out there so just followed a model blended solution yielding snow or rain chances by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: High end MVFR to low VFR at the northern terminals tonight with VFR at KBGR and KBHB. MVFR for the most part Thu. SHORT TERM: MVFR or lower conditions possible Thursday night in low ceilings and snow rain showers. MVFR or lower is possible on Friday with the passage of an arctic cold front. Best chances for IFR conditions will be across the north on Friday with potential snow showers or squalls. VFR conditions return Saturday through Monday. Small chance we could see MVFR or lower in snow KBGR/KBHB Saturday night into early Sunday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The SCA remains in effect for the outer zones through 3 AM. Winds and seas are forecast to drop off below 20 kts and 5 ft respectively early Thu morning. Expecting conditions to remain below SCA into Thursday. SHORT TERM: Strong SCA or even Gale Force Wind gusts could be expected in the northwest flow behind an exiting cold front Friday night and Saturday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Thursday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...CB/Hewitt Short Term...Duda Long Term...Duda Aviation...CB/Hewitt/Duda Marine...CB/Hewitt/Duda
Michigan. Timing offered by the previous forecast discussion remains
on target and is expected to begin lifting across the border and
into southern sections of the forecast area by 00Z this evening. Overall activity is tied to the lead edge of a prior nocturnal jet cycle that will only become accentuated along the southeast flank of a midlevel cyclonic circulation over portions of WI/IL and Lake Michigan. Deterministic solutions have been onto this moisture surge for days, resolving splotchy qpf for Lower Michigan for the duration of tonight. Hi resolution models are now onboard with aggressive resolution of the surface moisture in latest HRRR solutions. Always difficult to buy all in potential erroneous boundary layer/over saturated data, but observational evidence upstream shows some vsbys of less than 1SM with some light precipitation reports. Still not completely convinced dense fog will develop over the snowpack here in southeastern Michigan tonight but confidence on this bearish idea is very low. In fact, did include areas of drizzle and fog in the public forecast. Future shifts can monitor trends. No moisture or dynamics supportive for precipitation outside of drizzle. Early Thursday, theta e plan view progs support the passage of a low to midlevel cold front that will very efficiently support dry air advection in the 1000-2000 ft agl layer. This should be enough to shut down any lingering drizzle into the early Thursday period. Clouds will likely support temperatures that are cooler than today for a good chunk of the day until late day warm advection takes a hold of then. Highs probably wont make it in until Thursday evening. Late Thursday becomes active for much of Lower Michigan as the next frontal wave passes through the Ohio River Valley. Highest QPF will remain well south, but models show a sizable area getting impacted by overrunning precipitation. Somewhat noisy on which level in the elevated frontal slope will activate, with latest guidance suggesting some activity occurring along or north of I 69. Very well developed 800-600mb frontal slope will be in place directly over the heart of the cwa which will lead to low static stability in the midlevels. Fair question to bring up possibility for some thunder particularly during the 21-02Z timeframe south of I 96. Will not add an explicit mention at this time with neutral lapse rate structure. However, strong model consensus exists for convective rain showers in the 21-02Z within zone of favorable low level deformation. Bulk of the liquid amounts exceeding .25 inch will occur in that window. Precipitation to occur ahead of the cold front, which will support warm precipitation types. Aggressive surface ridging Friday will lead to dry weather, a modest northwest breeze, and temperatures ranging in the upper 20s to lower 30s. High pressure exiting the region on Saturday will bring continued dry conditions through much of the day as highs top out in the low 30s. A quick-moving upper wave accompanying a jet streak surging across the northern US will bring a brief chance for snow showers Saturday evening. An amplifying upper level ridge centered along the East Coast will then build into the region on Sunday lifting the jet northward into southern Canada and bringing quiet weather to end the weekend as highs approach 40. An active stretch of weather then begins early next week as the region remains between an amplified ridge along the East Coast and trough over the Western US. Low pressure lifting across the region on Monday will act to strengthen a frontal boundary to the west of SE Michigan while increasing deep southerly flow pulls Gulf moisture northward over the region. Model guidance is coming into better agreement that the frontal boundary will remain just west of SE Michigan while a series of low pressure systems tracking along it bring a prolonged period of rainfall through Tuesday. MARINE... Moderate southwest flow today will begin to decrease into the evening as a surge of moisture northward brings drizzle and fog into the Great Lakes region. Milder air will result in more stable conditions over the lakes and thus winds will be limited to 25 knots or less. A cold front will drop southward Thursday night and will result in some stronger northwest winds. The colder air will allow more unstable conditions and the potential for winds to reach gales for a short period of time. Anticipate the duration to be short enough to not issue any Gale Watches at this time. Gusts mainly around 30 knots will be more likely Thursday night early Friday morning before a high pressure arrives by Friday afternoon and brings calmer conditions. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Thursday for MIZ075-076-082-083. Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Thursday for MIZ063- 068>070. Lake Huron...NONE. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && $$ UPDATE.......MR AVIATION.....MR DISCUSSION...CB/JD MARINE.......AA You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
505 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 238 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 Fairly mild pleasant evening tonight with light winds and mostly clear skies. Could see some high clouds build north south of I-90. These high cloud could limit the potential for fog. RAP suggests the potential fog patchy fog in low lying areas, while the HRRR has backed off on the idea all-together. Have a mention of fog in the current forecast, but is fairly localized across far southeast SD into northwest Iowa. Cold front works south across the area on Thursday. Cold air lags behind the front, but once the cold air advection develops in the low levels, winds should increase driving wind chills into the single digits and teens. Could also see some light snow develop mainly along and north of I-90. Not a lot of lift but a fairly deep dendritic layer in the near surface layer develops as temps tumble. Snow amounts should be fairly light, generally 1/2 an inch or less. Heaviest accumulations are expect across central South Dakota, where slightly better dynamics exist. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 238 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 The extended starts off and ends cold, with a brief warm up in between. Thursday night, temperatures will fall to near zero, and with relatively brisk north winds through the night, could see wind chill values of -10 to -20 below. Developing southwesterly flow aloft throughout the day on Friday will help draw warmer air into the region. The mild temperatures last through Sunday, when a strong cold front associated with a low pressure system moves along the northern edge of the US. Have raised winds closer to CONSMOS Sunday into Monday. Behind the front, several mid level waves move through associated with a large upper trough creating periodic chances of precipitation from Sunday night through at least the first half of next week. Details of the various waves are still model specific, so left pops broad brushed for now. Behind this system, below normal temperatures look to reign with 925 hpa temps remaining in the teens below 0C. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 459 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 Winds will drop off later this evening, and could see patchy fog develop in lower lying areas. Will see an increase in high clouds from the south later tonight which may limit additional fog development. A frontal boundary will slide through the area on Thursday, with winds transitioning to northerly and picking up during the afternoon. May also see light snow develop behind the boundary, with the potential for the greatest impact being at KHON by 17Z. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BT LONG TERM...BT AVIATION...JM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
905 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Showers that formed in a warm and moist southerly flow ahead of a slow moving cold front will move east this evening, leaving cloudy skies and patchy fog. An upper disturbance interacting with the cold front will produce widespread showers on Thursday. Drier air and colder temperatures are expected Friday with high pressure arriving behind the cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As deep-layer moisture has largely departed the area, rain showers have been replaced by drizzle, coming out of cloud decks that remain below 1kft AGL. With continued warm and moist flow in the lower levels, and a dry layer above 650mb (as sampled by the 00Z KILN sounding), this thick moisture near the surface will likely remain in place under the inversion -- with drizzle expected to remain a possibility through the overnight hours. Areas of fog have also continued across the northern half of the forecast area, with a few 1/4SM observations mixing in from time to time. HRRR visibility projections suggest this fog will continue for another few hours, before starting to gradually improve (or shift north) going into the early morning. For the forecast, PoPs were dropped considerably with a change to drizzle as the main weather type overnight. No significant changes to the fog / temperature / dewpoint forecasts were required. Temperatures are actually still very slowly rising, which should be the trend through the morning. Previous discussion > Showers that have formed in a moist southerly flow near an ill- defined warm front will translate eastward across the FA, with precip diminishing this evening. A few thunderstorms developing in a layer of elevated instability containing ~200 J/KG CAPE will weaken and end as the short wave triggering the instability moves east. Overnight, a few showers may linger, skies will stay cloudy, and patchy fog may form in nearly saturated low level moisture over cooler ground. With a persistent southerly flow carrying warmer air, temperatures are not forecast to fall much if at all, with lows ranging from the mid 40s north up to the upper 50s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Thursday will see ingredients for widespread rain showers coming into phase. As ample moisture advection continues in a southerly flow ahead of a slow moving cold front, short wave energy will trigger a surface low along the front. A swath of showers will develop and move into the area in enhanced lift surrounding the surface wave, with the main focus of showers being roughly along I-70 during Thursday afternoon. As the cold front strengthens and accelerates in response to increasing jet stream winds, showers will continue Thursday night, while the bulk of showers shifts toward Southeast Ohio behind the departing surface low. Drier conditions should begin to arrive ahead of high pressure by late Thursday night. Models predict rainfall amounts of around one inch. Localized flooding potential seems rather low so held off on a flood watch, though ponding may be a concern. High temperatures rising well above normal will reach around 60 north up to around 70 south. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Drier air will work in from the northwest behind the cold front through the day Friday. This will allow for pcpn to end behind frontal passage. In the CAA pattern, temperatures will slowly fall into the 30s through the day. Surface high pressure will quickly traverse the region Friday night. Dry weather is expected with lows in the 20s. For Saturday, a s/wv will approach the region from the west. This will perturb a weak area of low pressure along the old frontal boundary to our southeast. Dynamic lift will pull moisture northward with the likelihood of pcpn expected across our south/east with a chance of pcpn west. There could be a little snow mixed on the northern/western fringes, with little if any accumulation expected. By Saturday night, the weather system will quickly exit east with pcpn ending. For Sunday, we will once again see a brief reprieve in the wet pattern with high pressure expected across the Ohio Valley. Highs will range from the 40s to around 50. Upper level pattern across the CONUS will become more amplified as we head into next week. This will bring back the wet pattern as embedded s/wvs in the flow combine with a slow-moving boundaries to bring periods of showers, some of which may be locally heavy. This pattern will keep the flood threat going for our region, including river points. Likely PoPs were used for Monday and Tuesday, with chance PoPs lingering into mid/late week. Persistent southerly flow will keep temperatures warm until at least mid week. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... IFR conditions are expected to continue this evening and into the overnight hours, with some LIFR ceilings in the near term and the potential for LIFR visibilities over the next several hours as well. Precipitation is changing to a mix of light rain and drizzle, and this will be included in the TAFs as well. As the overnight hours progress, a very slow improvement in conditions will allow ceilings to get more toward the high end of the IFR range (or even the low end of the MVFR range) by morning. There will still be a chance of some light rain or drizzle going into Thursday morning, but not as likely as earlier in the period. More rain is expected to move into the area during the afternoon on Thursday, eventually bringing IFR conditions again. Some pockets of heavier rain will be capable of IFR visibilities as well. Winds through the period will generally remain out of the southwest at around 10 knots. These values may increase slightly later on Thursday. OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to continue through Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Hatzos SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...Hatzos
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
909 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 909 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 Dense fog has already developed and will continue to spread tonight across northern parts of the area. Have already updated to account for the dense fog and have issued a dense fog advisory for overnight through tomorrow at 10am. Some areas will likely improve sooner in the morning while some areas in the extreme northern parts of the CWA may not improve much at all, but 10am seems like a happy middle. Since already updated once and other parameters are looking good, no further updates are needed at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) ISSUED AT 310 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 The main concern in the short term is the coverage of fog, potentially dense fog, overnight into Thursday. High resolution guidance is generally overdoing the amount of coverage of 1/4 mile fog, and shows trends of the fog shifting farther north of I-74 this evening. Later tonight, areas of dense fog are forecast by the HRRR and RAP models to expand southward into our counties, at the same time as a band of fog expands into our southern counties, roughly between I-72 and I-70 from Shelbyville and east. Bufkit soundings are complicating the matter even more, showing a potential for the fog to mainly become a very low stratus deck instead. There remains enough uncertainty to where a dense fog advisory would be needed, and after collaboration with surrounding NWS offices, we will not issue a dense fog advisory this afternoon for the tonight into Thursday period. Fog trends will need to be closely monitored however. Despite some brief thinning of the clouds in our SW counties this evening, clouds should dominate the skies tonight. The blanket of clouds along with southwest winds will help to keep low temps on the mild side, to say the least. Lows will be near normal highs for mid February. Areas near Galesburg will bottom out in the upper 30s, while areas south of I-70 see lows in the lower 50s. Lows may actually occur earlier tonight, as temps remain relatively steady or slowly rise late. The warm temps tonight and Thursday will go into melting quite a bit of the remaining snow cover across our northern counties, adding fuel to the potential for dense fog. Highs on Thursday will have a large spread from NW to SE across our forecast areas. That will have something to do with the path of a surface low across north-central Illinois. It will be cooler to the north of the track and very mild south of the track. A cold front extending south from the surface low will progress toward the Illinois River Valley by 6 pm Thursday. The end result will be likely chances of rain through the day, with no thunderstorms expected. MUCAPEs in our SE counties remain less than 100, so we left thunder out for now. There will be a wide range of high temps across central IL. We expect upper 40s near GBG, with mid to upper 60s south of I-70. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 310 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 Thursday night, the cold front will push across the southeast half of our forecast area. Likely rain chances should be mainly confined to areas east of I-55, and especially east of I-57. As the precipitation comes to an end late Thursday night, there could be a brief transition to some light snow, but it should melt as it hits the ground. The bulk of the cold air will arrive on Friday and Friday night, as high pressure settles southeast from the Plains. Some brief rain showers could linger south of I-70 early Friday morning, then dry conditions should occur the rest of the day Friday and Friday night. Despite some sunshine on Friday, highs will be limited to the mid 20s near Galesburg, with low to mid 30s in the central portions of the CWA, and upper 30s south of I-70. Lows Friday night will be the coldest of the next week, as readings drop into the lower teens in the NW and mid 20s in the SE. A warming trend is forecast for Saturday through Monday, highlighted by a warm front lifting into central IL on Monday. High temps will climb into the upper 30s to low 40s Saturday, reaching the upper 40s to upper 50s on Monday. Rain chances look to be confined to Saturday afternoon in our E-SE counties due to a low pressure system passing by to the S of Illinois. Dry conditions look likely from Saturday night through Sunday evening, before the approaching warm front and baroclinic zone increase precipitation chances again. The precip type looks to be mainly rain for Monday and Monday evening, before low pressure and a cold front arrive and snow chances increase NW of the Illinois river after midnight Monday night. Rain chances will continue on Tuesday as the surface low and cold front advance east of Illinois. Model differences in timing of that system have caused the blended extended to contain chances of rain Tuesday night and Wednesday, when there should be a dry period developing at some point in that time frame. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 557 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 Conditions have improved in some areas but am expecting them to go back down, especially at BMI and possibly at PIA as well. MVFR cigs at CMI and DEC should improve to VFR later tonight, but models indicate lower cigs will return overnight and continue through tomorrow. SPI is VFR but lower cigs also will be returning late overnight. PIA looks good now, but they also will be going down to IFR and then LIFR overnight and through tomorrow. BMI should remain IFR for several hours, but also decrease back to LIFR overnight. Some improvement is possible late in the period as a cold front approaches and begins to move through the sites. Winds will be south to southwest but then become more west- southwest ahead of the front. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Thursday for ILZ027>031- 036>038-040>046. && $$ UPDATE...Auten SHORT TERM...Shimon LONG TERM...Shimon AVIATION...Auten
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
944 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 921 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 The forecast the remainder of tonight and through Thursday morning is anything but clear cut. A defined low level WAA regime is in place with veering south to southwesterly flow through the lower trop. Mostly cloudy skies will be the rule tonight resulting from both a continued increase in high clouds from the Plains and also increasing stratus. Stratus already blankets the east-southeast portion of the CWA and the latest GOES East Stratus and Nighttime Microphysics products are showing the development/spread into southwest/south-central MO. This later stratus is expected to continue developing/spreading north-northeast through the night across the CWA. I think the clouds as well as increasing low level flow should keep any substantial fog at a minimum. Min temps will be quite mild for late February and actually above normal highs for this time of year. Another change was to increase POPs on Thursday morning, especially for areas along and north of Interstate 70. The last 5+ runs of the HRRR along with some support from the NAMNEST and RAP have been showing a rather explosive development of showers in response to low level WAA and moisture advection associated with a southwest LLJ and weak ascent attendant with a migratory impulse aloft. If this precip indeed pans out and persists through much of the morning, it could have a negative impact on the highs presently forecast. Glass && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 310 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 Zonal flow aloft exists over our region this afternoon with southerly flow at the surface. A strong storm system was anchored off the southern coast of California. After a relatively mild start to this morning, and thanks to dissipation of the expansive low cloud field for most locations, temps have surged well into the 50s and 60s this afternoon under a filtered sunshine from abundant cirrus clouds. A piece of energy will break off from the CA storm system and will race eastward towards our region by Thursday morning with a larger piece in tow. This will increase deep lift across our region late tonight into Thursday as a surface cold front also moves thru the area. Abundant high cloudiness from cirrus will continue for many areas this evening as thicker clouds begin to roll back in. Along with a steady moderate southerly flow of wind, temperatures will not fall much overnight, with min temps in the low-mid 50s for many areas near and south of I-70, and mid-upper 40s for areas to the north. The threat for rain showers is also expected to hold off until very late tonight for parts of central MO or into Thursday morning for most areas near and north of I-70 with this rain threat then dropping southward during Thursday afternoon with the advent of the cold front. Clouds will be another factor in determining how aggressive to handle what could be a very warm day for February tomorrow, and have decided to continue a via media with respect to MOS on max temps: ranging from low 70s for many areas near and south of I-70 to the low 60s in far northern MO and central IL. Temperatures will be mild enough to preclude any concerns on pcpn- types other than all liquid. TES .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Next Wednesday) Issued at 310 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 (Thursday Night - Sunday) Cold front will continue to progress southeastward Thursday evening. Showers are likely along and ahead of the boundary. Some weak low- level instability so kept mention of slight chance thunder during the evening hours, mainly across portions of southwest Illinois and southeast Missouri. An upstream shortwave may also help induce some more stratiform light rain on the cool side of the boundary overnight Thursday night. This area may clip portions of southeastern Missouri. Strong cold advection takes place most of the day on Friday with a surface high pressure center sliding down the Missouri River Valley. Temperatures will much much colder on Friday behind the front. Looks for highs in the 30s and 40s across the area, or about 30 degrees colder than Thursday! Still plenty of uncertainty with the next chance of precipitation late Friday night and early Saturday. Best chance of precipitation across the area looks to be across southern sections of the CWFA where strongest low-level warm/moist advection will reside. Precipitation type will be problematic as classic battle between the aforementioned warm advection vs. wetbulbing/evaporative cooling takes place. Believe a rain/snow mix wording is the best way to go, leaning toward more snow initially as wetbulbing takes place transitioning to rain as boundary layer warms well above freezing. Some minor accumulations are possible but still quite a bit of uncertainty with respect to precipitation type and northern extent of stratiform precipitation shield into our area. A weak warm front is forecast to move through the bi-state area on Saturday night into early Sunday morning. This will leave the CWA in the warm sector of a developing cyclone across the Rocky Mountains. High temperatures are expected to be in the 50s predominantly on Sunday. (Sunday Night - Next Wednesday) Warm and active weather regime still appears likely for early next week as persistent southwest flow aloft sets up across the mid- Mississippi Valley. Setup appears conducive to at least a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms between Sunday night and Tuesday night. Moderate to potentially heavy rainfall appears possible, but the specifics are highly uncertain this far out. Exact placement of the slowly sagging cold front will be critical and this feature and its progress will be highly dependent on the strength of the downstream mid/upper level anticyclone and the strength to the low- level cold airmass behind the front. At any rate, appears warm and active ahead of the cold front which should bring at least some beneficial rainfall to the area. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening) Issued at 538 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 VFR conditions prevail at all the terminals early this evening with high clouds overspreading the area and stratus across southeast MO into southern IL. Current thinking is that stratus will redevelop back to the west across MO late this evening and overnight, with predominately MVFR flight conditions impacting the terminals. Also overnight a southwesterly LLJ will develop across southeast KS and western MO and this will produce LLWS conditions thru 15Z at KCOU. I think there will be a general trend for improving flight conditions by late morning as surface winds increase. Precipitation trends are less defined. A cold front will be moving through the area during the late morning-afternoon and present indications are there will be showers ahead of the front. Coverage and timing of the showers varies amongst the guidance. There certainly could be higher probabilities at KCOU and earlier in the day in the St. Louis region. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: VFR flight conditions should prevail this evening then MVFR stratus is expected to develop and move into the terminal overnight. Improving flight conditions are expected by midday on Thursday along with increasing southwest winds. Precipitation trends are bit harder to define. I kept with the trend of the previous forecast with showers during the later half of the afternoon ahead of an advancing cold front. There is some newer short-range guidance that suggests showers could occur as early as 15-16Z and this will be evaluated in preparation of the next TAF issuance. Glass && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures for February 15th STL...75 in 1976 COU...78 in 1911 UIN...74 in 1921 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
522 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF issuance... No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions expected to prevail at all terminals. Gusty S/SW winds will diminish this evening however FST and MAF look to remain somewhat elevated overnight. Moisture return from the SE looks possible later tonight but confidence is fairly low attm to continue mention of MVFR cigs at MAF. Will continue to monitor this potential through the night and make any adjustments if needed. Otherwise, expect winds to increase again from the SW Thursday afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018/ DISCUSSION... WV imagery shows the west coast trough has opened, and sits over SoCal, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft. Morning mid clouds finally dissipated, and afternoon insolation and SW sfc flow has allowed afternoon temps to top 80F in many locations. Overnight, a secondary trough over the PacNW will dig south and phase w/the first, and set up over nrn Baja over the next 48 hours. Leeside troughing over the Front Range will veer sfc flow Thu further to the SW and even W, keeping afternoon highs similar to today`s. However, mid/hi clouds streaming off the west coast trough may put a damper on afternoon highs, which may end up a degree or two cooler than today`s. The NAM depicts a modest mtn wave signature over the Guadalupes beginning late tonight, and lasting thru Thu evening, so we`ve upgraded the high wind watch to a warning there. Meanwhile, The nrn branch of the secondary trough will keep moving east, and backdoor a cold front into the area by 12Z Fri. Accompanying the trough will be a 250mb 180+kt jet moving thru the central CONUS, which will put West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under the RR quadrant of the jet Fri/Fri night. This will combine w/the front and isentropic upglide beginning Fri afternoon for increasing chances of rain thru Fri night. An atmospheric river of PWATs 4 std devs abv-normal is still forecast to move over the region during this time, although latest ensembles have shifted it north over the past couple of days. Also, models POPs are not quite as high as the past few runs as well. Still, this looks to be the best chance of rain for the area in quite some time. Attm, higher dewpoints look to keep the colder temps at bay until the front arrives. Even then, freezing temps behind the front should not arrive until late Fri night, and only then over the far nrn zones. Forecast soundings show moisture fairly shallow over those areas by that time, so any changeover will likely be -FZRA...if that. It must be emphasized that models by this time differ quite significantly in temp profiles. However, even taking the colder approach, and FZRA accumulations look to be very light and isolated. Rain will taper off Saturday as a tertiary trough drops into the PacNW. maintaining SW flow aloft over the region. Temps should rebound quickly to above-normal by Sat afternoon, w/return moisture resuming Sat night. Sunday night, a dryline sets up mid-CWA, and enough instability will be in place east of this feature for a chance of thunderstorms. By this time, models begin to diverge, but the rest of the extended looks fairly dry, w/a cold front coming in Tue night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 56 81 47 53 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 52 73 48 56 / 0 0 10 40 Dryden 50 78 52 73 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 55 82 50 63 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 52 66 49 55 / 0 0 10 50 Hobbs 49 73 43 51 / 0 0 10 40 Marfa 42 77 42 69 / 0 0 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 51 79 46 55 / 0 0 0 20 Odessa 52 79 46 56 / 0 0 0 20 Wink 46 80 44 59 / 0 0 0 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 PM MST Thursday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. TX...High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 PM MST Thursday for Guadalupe Mountains. && $$ 27/72
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
950 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front moves across tonight into Thursday, followed by an approaching cold front that crosses the area on Friday. High pressure builds through Saturday morning, and moves off Saturday afternoon. Low pressure passes to the south Saturday night into early Sunday morning. High pressure returns Sunday into early Monday. A frontal system may impact the region late Monday into the midweek period. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Forecast generally on track for tonight with just minor adjustments made for timing of the rain. Rain is quickly moving across PA and will begin entering western portions of the CWA around 03z. The rain will then quickly overspread the rest of the region through 06z. The HRRR and latest NAM seem to have a good handle on the timing and coverage of the rain. There are no concerns for frozen precipitation tonight as temperatures will be quite mild and generally in the lower to middle 40s as the rain occurs. A middle level shortwave and a warm front are the main lifting mechanisms for the rain. The shortwave axis quickly slides to the east early Thursday morning, which will help bring an end to the rain from west to east. The rain should be offshore with lingering overcast conditions by day break. Rainfall amounts should range from around a tenth inland to around a quarter of an inch near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Airmass behind the warm front gets even warmer. Model 850mb temperatures will be trending warmer compared to the previous day, with +7 to +9 on average. Same SW flow will be expected during the day, but wind direction and cloud timing from the next system will make temperature forecast a bit tricky for some parts of the area. Used higher resolution data for winds and temps. For this forecast package have introduced more of southerly component to wind compared to previous forecast, and also have more clouds with a model blend. Therefore have backed temperatures off some across eastern / coastal sections, and similar temperatures from the city on west due to wind fetch over land in these areas. Subsequent shifts will determine whether to adjust the temperature forecast for Thursday. For now based on current forecast, only JFK and ISP may come close to records for the date, otherwise records for Thursday are rather impressive and difficult to surpass, especially for EWR, NYC, and LGA. For Thursday night, next system in good confluent regime gets here rather quickly and on the heels of the previous system. Timing is rather quick with a light to steady rainfall arriving for the late evening into the overnight from west to east. Looks like a general 0.25 to 0.50 liquid event. A bit more liquid with this second event due to a good warm tongue and advection push ahead of the boundary, along with elongated vorticity advection ahead of the approaching cold front. BUFKIT forecast soundings show a quick shot of omega at roughly 700-500mb layer. Cold front should move through Friday morning, and clear east of the region by the afternoon. Winds will kick up behind the front as a gusty NW wind follows into late Friday afternoon and evening. With jet structure aloft still nearby any meaningful clearing may take awhile into early Friday evening. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The quasi zonal flow develops into a large scale northern trough as one northwestern shortwave moves onshore Thursday into Friday. The flow will remain rather progressive as another Pacific shortwave moves onshore late Friday. This wave will remain south of the region and at this time is still not expected to phase with another wave tracking through Canada. Model guidance has been consistent with keeping the track of the low off the DELMARVA into the mid Atlantic region Saturday night, with minor variations from run to run. The low track is south and east of the benchmark with mainly an all snow event, may be a light rain at the beginning late Saturday afternoon. The track of the low will depend on any cold air damming with the high moving off the northeast coast, and may suppress the track farther to the south. With the progressive flow, the storm will be quick moving with the precipitation falling Saturday night, ending across the east Sunday morning. The higher QPF remains offshore. At this time there may be around a half inch across Long Island and southern Connecticut. Do not have high enough confidence at this time for warning level snow and will not mention in the HWO. However, there is the potential if the track is shifted to the north. With the quick flow into next week, a weak ridge builds Sunday into Monday ahead of the next frontal system. A warm front approaches Monday with the chance of overrunning precipitation. Signals remain for a significant warmup next week as a ridge builds off the southeast coast into the midweek period. This will slow the flow and a series of shortwaves will move through the upper trough into the midweek, so will have chance probabilities Monday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A prolonged period of SW flow can be expected until a cold front passes through on Friday. Cigs will continue to lower tngt as rain overspreads the area. Cigs could stay vfr at the NYC arpts til around 4z. A break to vfr is possible during the day Thu, especially across the NYC arpts. Aft 02Z, additional rain and ifr will sweep into the area. Light ssw winds tonight, then winds increase again during the day Thu. Lgt and vrb flow Thu ngt. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Thursday Night into Friday...Rain likely with MVFR or lower. NW winds G25KT Friday afternoon/evening. .Saturday...VFR. .Saturday Night...MVFR or lower with a chance of snow. .Sunday...Improving to VFR. .Monday...Initially VFR conditions lowering to MVFR or lower late with rain. && .MARINE... The forecast is generally on track across the waters. There could be an hour or two of seas around 5 ft on the offshore ocean waters east of Fire Island inlet this evening. Seas should subside to 3 to 4 ft overnight. Otherwise, a prolonged period of SW flow will prevail through Friday morning. A cold front passes through during the late morning and early afternoon on Friday. Seas on the ocean will be gradually build during this time and will likely exceed 5 ft late Thursday night and continue to build into the day on Friday. NW gusts 25-30kt are likely across all waters Friday afternoon into Friday night behind the cold front. SCA criteria may occur for the southern most ocean waters as early as late Thursday night into early Friday morning, with the higher likelihood of SCA conditions into the day on Friday. A gusty northwest flow will be ongoing Friday night with SCA level gusts likely across all the waters Friday evening. With high pressure building over the waters winds diminish Friday night. Ocean seas will be slow to subside, falling below 5 feet by Saturday morning. Winds and seas are then expected to remain below SCA levels Saturday through Monday as low pressure passes to the south of the waters Saturday night, then high pressure builds back into the waters. Then with an increasing southerly flow ahead of low pressure approaching Monday ocean seas may build to SCA levels Monday night into Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are anticipated with rainfall tonight and then again Thursday night. Liquid equivalent amounts of 1/10 to 1/4 of an inch are forecast tonight, followed by another 1/4 to 1/2 for Thursday night. Liquid equivalent precipitation Saturday night into early Sunday is expected to range from 1/4 northwest to around 1/2 inch through coastal Connecticut and across Long Island. However, no hydrologic impacts are anticipated this weekend into early next week. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JE/19 NEAR TERM...JE/DS SHORT TERM...JE LONG TERM...19 AVIATION...JMC/MD MARINE...JE/19/DS HYDROLOGY...JE/19 EQUIPMENT...
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
848 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 .UPDATE... Allowed the Red Flag Warning to expire for parts of western Oklahoma this evening. Made small adjustments to all weather elements tonight, but no major changes. && .DISCUSSION... Warmer and breezy conditions can be expected tonight. South to southwest surface winds will continue to bring warmer air to Oklahoma and north Texas. Don`t think temperatures will fall much tonight due to the breezy conditions and increasing mid/high level cloud cover to limit radiational cooling. Surface dewpoints will be quite high in many locations, in the 50s to near 60F southeast of a Seymour, Texas to Enid line which is near daily climatological maximum values for this time of year. Some patchy fog may occur and reduce visibilities below 3 miles near and east of Atoka and Durant tonight. Chose not to mention thinking low level winds will be strong enough (above 10 mph) to mix the low level moisture into stratus and keep visibilities above 3 miles in these areas. Latest HRRR runs have been suggesting some light radar echoes may occur later tonight into Thursday morning across Oklahoma and north Texas from some increasing mid level moisture. Do not think this precipitation will reach the ground due to abundant dry air between 1500 and 10000 ft AGL. Near record highs are expected on Thursday. Daily record highs for February 15 are 81F at Oklahoma City set in 1954, 85F at Wichita Falls set in 2000, and 83F at Lawton set in 1954. These records may be in jeopardy. Wildfire danger will again be Elevated to Near Critical on Thursday. Will not issue a Fire Weather Watch or Red Flag Warning at this time for Thursday thinking 20ft winds will stay generally below 20 mph, especially with abundant mid/high level cloud cover to limit vertical mixing. However, will closely monitor as surface winds west of the dryline in western Oklahoma were much stronger this past afternoon than previously forecast and depicted by most model guidance. Products have been updated. MBS && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 553 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018/ DISCUSSION... 00Z TAFs. AVIATION... Most of the signal is that stratus should mainly remain southeast of the TAF sites tonight/Thursday morning, but there is enough of a signal of high low-level RHs in the NAM that will at least keep a TEMPO group with some visibilities of around 5SM and MVFR ceilings of 015-025 at KOKC, KOUN, KLAW and KSPS. Winds will veer soon after sunrise Thursday quickly mixing out and MVFR conditions that do develop. Winds veer above the surface overnight and become quite strong leading to some LLWS. Have put a generally SW wind at 020 feet in the wind shear group, but this will be somewhat variable overnight starting more SSW and becoming more WSW. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018/ DISCUSSION... Strong winds, along with warm and very dry air, have caused Critical fire weather conditions in far western Oklahoma this afternoon. Tomorrow promises to be another warm day, although the axis of maximum temperatures will shift farther east tomorrow. Though it will again be warm and dry, the approach of a cold front will dull the south-southwest winds in northwest Oklahoma, but winds will likely be a problem farther south. Fortunately for fire concerns, the stronger winds and lower humidities will probably not coincide tomorrow. A strong cold front will bring a dose of reality to the region as winter reasserts itself in Oklahoma and north Texas. Temperatures will be 30 to 40 degrees F colder Friday afternoon, compared to Thursday afternoon. Low chances for precipitation will follow the front, but if any precipitation does occur, it will probably be very light. As southerly winds return late Sunday into Monday, moisture and modest instability will bring our first chance for thunderstorms in a while. The forecast wind shear, instability, and overall synoptic setup suggest a possibility of a few marginally severe storms over the eastern quarter or so of our forecast area. Another cold front early next week will lower temperatures again, and some of the expected precipitation may be freezing or frozen (freezing rain, sleet, or snow). At this time, it appears that the ice/snow areas will not coincide with areas of significant precipitation amounts, but we will have to keep an eye on that. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 56 81 32 41 / 0 0 20 10 Hobart OK 52 81 33 42 / 0 0 20 10 Wichita Falls TX 57 84 39 43 / 0 0 10 20 Gage OK 52 78 26 41 / 10 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 58 80 29 41 / 10 10 10 10 Durant OK 58 78 42 46 / 10 10 20 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 17/26
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
852 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure well to the southeast will weaken allowing a weak upper level disturbance to cross the area from the west overnight. A cold front will approach the area from the northwest late Thursday, but take until Saturday to move through the region. Unseasonably warm temperatures and widespread rainfall is expected Thursday through Saturday until the front moves south of the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 845 PM EST Wednesday... Showers quickly entering the region from the west and should overspread the mountains in the next couple of hours before pushing into eastern sections prior to weakening after midnight. This supported via the latest HRRR which showers about a 3 hour window of rainfall along/west of the Blue Ridge through midnight before moisture shallows out and weak lift heads east. Cant totally rule out an elevated rumble of thunder mainly far west otherwise only change was to slow down pops at the onset. Uncertainty still exists on just how far east rain will make it given strong westerly flow aloft off evening soundings so going brief window of higher pops looks good. Otherwise made changes to lower low temperatures as most already at or below forecast lows. Should see readings steady out or slowly rise late so adjusted toward a more uniform non-diurnal curve for lows which puts most in the 40s outside of the ridges where may stay in the 50s. Previous update as of 705 PM EST Wednesday... Generally quiet conditions currently. However, regional radar mosaic shows band of light to moderate rain with areas of mist now over the Tennessee Valley and Cumberland Plateau in Tennessee. This in association with leading edge of warm front/surge of low-level moisture. Extrapolation of this rain shield brings it into western Tazewell County around 01-02z/8-9pm and northeast thereafter through 07z. On basis of good consensus of HREF member reflectivity forecasts as well as 18z guidance, have raised PoPs toward Likely/low Categorical mainly from the Blue Ridge foothills west/northwest through 07z/2 am, and bumped QPF up a few hundreths of an inch in this period. Does appear in reflectivity guidance that rain shield begins to split or break up into two pieces after then. Doesn`t look like heavy rain but enough to put a potential brief damper on outdoor plans, especially west of the Ridge. Though patchy fog also indicated where PoPs are the highest, this is meant to convey more of a mist than true fog. After rain comes to an end, have reduced PoPs down to Slight/lower Chance levels into the morning. May need to increase mist/fog coverage further into overnight based on METARs in areas currently behind the rain, though guidance is more bearish on this idea. Aside from this, temperatures have been running cooler than previous indications. Have tried to better account for this by blending in recent GFS LAMP and CONSShort data into the hourly temperatures. This reduces lows to values in the upper 40s to mid 50s - all told, a generally small change. Previous discussion issued at 305 PM follows... High pressure centered along the South Carolina coastline this afternoon will move southeast tonight into Thursday. A couple of weak upper disturbances will rotate eastward across our region. This will result in periods of rain and drizzle. The best chance of rain will occur in the western mountains. The ECMWF and GFS looked overdone with rainfall tonight. Leaned towards the NAM and HRRR for pops this afternoon into tonight. Added patchy fog to isc grids. With a 590+dm ridge aloft off the southeast U.S. coast, overnight low temperatures will be unseasonable mild with readings from the upper 40s in the mountains to the mid 50s along the western ridges. Refer Climate section to see Records. The warm front will continue to lift north on Thursday as the high center migrates east. Scattered showers are expected especially west of the Blue Ridge mountains. Rainfall will be less than a quarter inch. Widespread flooding is not currently anticipated during daylight hours on Thursday. The axis of the heavier rain will be northwest of our region generally along the Ohio River. The west to southwest flow will transport mild air into the region. High temperatures on Thursday will be challenging record highs with readings from the upper 50s in the northwest to the lower 70s in the piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 PM EST Wednesday... A cold front will slowly move across the Ohio Valley Thursday night, then stalls just west of the central and southern Appalachian Mountains Friday. A series of mid level waves will track along the front bring moderate to heavy rain to central and northern West Virginia Thursday night into Friday. By the time this front stalls to the west of the Appalachians, waves become weaker and moisture transport will decrease, resulting in light to moderate rain for southeastern West Virginia and southwestern Virginia. Forecasted rainfall amounts may range from a half an inch to an inch /0.50- 1.00/ along western slopes Thursday night into Friday. Creeks, streams and river levels will already have receded from this past weekend`s event. The ground remains wet but with no snowpack, the flood threat is low for Friday. The front will move across the area Thursday afternoon and evening. Winds become westerly quickly, keeping rainfall amounts along and east of the Blue Ridge to a quarter of an inch or less. Despite strong pressure rises and a 40 kt low level jet behind the front, subsidence inversion and lack of strong cold air advection will keep the stronger winds aloft Friday afternoon/night. High pressure will move from the Ohio Valley to the mid Atlantic states Friday night, then wedges south into the Carolinas Saturday. A disturbance moving over the Tennessee Valley will push overrunning moisture over the southern end of the wedge during the day Saturday. Isentropic lift, moist easterly flow and soggy soils could possibly bring flood concerns to the mountains. This flood threat also hinges on the amount and duration of rain the area gets Friday. Rainfall amounts (quarter to half an inch) may trend lower if convection across the Tennessee Valley develops and tracks southward. Also complicating the issue is the chance for a wintry mix Saturday morning, possibly lingering into the afternoon. A secondary wave develops off the NC/VA coast Saturday evening and quickly pulls the front across the area. Record warm low temperatures possible Thursday night with readings in the 50s. These temperatures are around 30 degrees warmer than normal for overnight lows and 10 degrees warmer than average daytime highs this time of year. The warm trend continues Tuesday with temperatures peaking into the 60s to lower 70s. Areas that have rain early Friday morning may only have highs in the 50s, still not bad for February. Temperatures cool down into the 30s following the front Friday night. Not much warming expected Saturday with a cold wedge in play. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 250 PM EST Wednesday... High pressure builds in behind Saturday night`s front and wedges south into the Carolinas on Sunday. A warm front will track over the wedge bringing another round of precipitation to the region Monday. Temperatures may be warm enough for an all rain event, but there is a small window for a wintry mix Monday morning. The warm front will remove the shallow wedge by Tuesday. The area will stay in the warm sector Tuesday and Wednesday with well above normal temperatures with readings in the 60s. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 650 PM EST Wednesday... Generally VFR (intervals MVFR at Blacksburg and Lewisburg) through about 02z. Thereafter, band of light to moderate rain now evident in radar imagery in the Tennessee Valley lifts its way northeast mainly northwest of Danville between 02-07z. This is well indicated by recent higher-resolution guidance consensus. Upstream observations in the Nashville TN area and across a broad part of the Tennessee Valley reflect IFR ceilings and intervals of mist, though forecast guidance is more optimistic on ceilings/visbys in this 02-07z period. Will base TAF forecast in this period heavily on extrapolation versus recently poorly- verifying guidance, which will thus show a lower in ceilings to IFR-MVFR levels with MVFR mist and light rain. Forecast confidence beyond 07z is low, as behind this initial wave of rain across the western Ohio/Mississippi Valley is a large area of MVFR-IFR ceilings with mist at times. Maintained IFR-MVFR ceilings through 12z, though it`s possible in the 06z TAF issuance that a greater coverage of mist may be needed if forthcoming guidance supports ongoing observations behind the rain shield. Have kept ceilings generally VFR- MVFR for tomorrow, with MVFR-IFR at Bluefield, Lewisburg...and Danville with stratus returning northeast from the Carolinas. Wouldn`t rule out off- and-on showers but timing of these is of low- confidence. Winds begin light south/southwest 3-8kts, but speeds trend up into the day to around 6-12 kts. Southwest low-level jet of 35-40 kts will introduce pockets of low-level wind shear after 06z. Medium confidence on ceilings/visbys through about 07z, low confidence on ceilings/visbys after 07z. Medium to high confidence on winds through the 00z TAF period. Extended Aviation Discussion... Rather poor aviation conditions expected through the period as a series of weather systems continues to track across the country. Southwest flow aloft will prevail across the eastern U.S. as a high amplitude right of high pressure aloft remains strong. Numerous periods of widespread sub-VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds will be quite strong and gusty through much of this period as well. && .CLIMATE... As of 300 PM EST Wednesday... Thursday 02/15/2018 Site MaxT Year HiMin Year KBLF 72 1990 54 1990 KDAN 76 1990 57 1949 KLYH 77 1989 55 1949 KROA 79 1989 55 2001 KRNK 66 1990 46 1990 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK NEAR TERM...AL/JH/KK SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...AL/KK CLIMATE...KK