Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/12/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
807 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018
A cold/occluded front will sweep east across the region tonight.
High pressure will then build into the region from the Great
Lakes Monday and Tuesday. A cold front is likely to push
southeast across Pennsylvania by late Thursday or early Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
01Z surface analysis places cold front across western Pa,
roughly from KBFD to KLBE. A dwindling band of showers is
expected to accompany the passage of the cold (occluded) front,
as it pushes through central Pa late this evening. While temps
have shot up ahead of the front over western Pa, low level
cool/stable air is likely to remain entrenched over eastern Pa
until arrival of occluded front between 03Z-06Z. Until front
arrives, areas of dense fog will continue to be an issue across
eastern Pa and especially the Susq Valley.
Model soundings indicate light rain could end as a brief period
of -fzra/fzdz between 01Z-03Z over the northwest mountains, such
as occurred at KERI. Another area of interest will be the
possibility for a bit of light post-frontal snow late tonight
over the Alleghenies. Frontogenetic forcing in right entrance
region of jet streak is currently producing a band of light
precip across the Ohio Valley and models indicate this area of
forcing will lift into the central Pa late tonight with just
enough moisture to support some very light snow over the high
terrain of the Alleghenies. Downsloping/subsidence should cause
any precip to dry up east of the mountains. A blend of latest
HRRR and earlier ensemble qpf supports no more than a dusting
from Elk Co southward through the Laurels by daybreak Monday.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Any spotty light snow across the Laurels should end by late
morning, as fgen forcing shifts east and much drier air advects
into the region on northwest flow.
Arrival of high pressure and low PWAT air mass will result in
mainly sunny skies by afternoon. Model soundings indicate mixing
to 925mb, where ensemble mean temps of -3C to -7C should
translate to max temps from the upper 20s over the northwest
mountains, to the low 40s over the southeast counties. Clear
and colder Monday night with lows in the single digits to low
teens north to upper teens and low 20s south.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Long range forecast is anchored by a huge subtropical ridge that
will wobble off the southeast coast. As it ebbs and flows north
and south and east and west, it will allow bouts of cooler air
with a few days of warm air.
Tuesday will be a dry day as the surface high moves through
the area. Wednesday and Thursday will warm up as the ridge pokes
A weak frontal boundary will cross the area on Friday but above
normal temperatures will continue through the weekend and
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cigs and vsbys will continue to fluctuate through mid evening
as minor variations in wind speed and direction and intensity,
are resulting in ceilings and visibility bouncing between below
airfield minimums to MVFR (...and back) as fast as ASOS can
process a new observation. Areas of dense fog have increased
below the inversion and will have to wait for the front to mix
things up later on this evening to be scoured out.
Know that whatever the current observation is...it will change
before you can check which nearby airfield has the lowest
alternate minimums. None of my airfields are CAT III certified
so when you arrive at your decision height, flip a coin that the
approach lights will be in view. This will also be after you
descend through the strong inversion around 2,000 ft AGL with
its associated turbulence. The over/under on how many missed
approaches until you wonder how much of that fuel still in the
ground tanks at your departure would have been better served in
your tanks is around 2.5.
With that being said...there is hope. A cold front will cross
the area around the 23-03z time frame, kicking up winds and
mixing out the low level fog. Conditions will improve rapidly by
05z and VFR will last into the end of this forecast period.
Tue...Slight chance for light rain showers west. Restrictions
Tue night-Wed...Chance for light wintry mix Tue night, rain
showers Wed. Restrictions becoming likely.
Thu...Restrictions likely in rain/snow showers, esp NW half.
Dense Fog Advisory until midnight EST tonight for PAZ028-046-
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
805 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018
.UPDATE...Early this evening, radar trends have shown some
decrease in coverage of widespread rain W of forecast area with
very slow eastward progress, along with some scattered showers
eastern Duval Co. FL and eastern counties of se GA. Expect
activity over eastern counties to diminish next hour or two with
loss of heating. Greater uncertainty as to what will occur further
W. Active convection limited to far nw FL near Gulf Coast. Will
maintain high POPs in our western counties, although coud become
more scattered in nature later Tonight.
Latest hi-res guidance shows large area of showers that will move
across se GA late Tonight, with NAM showing peak of rain in the
12-18z period Tomorrow N of I-10 corridor. HRRR tries to produce
some convection along apparent boundary S of I-10 corridor around
12z, moving SE...will have lower POPs there due to greater
For low temps, made adjustments in sctrl GA where rainfall has
dropped temps to near or just below forecast lows, though temps
there should move very little the rest of the night.
Elsewhere, forecast low temps look fine.
Included some patchy fog Tonight, though best chance for any
locally dense fog appears to be in our southern counties.
.AVIATION...VFR conditions currently at TAF sites are expected to
continue through the evening. Latest hi-res guidance suggests
low CIGS will spread NE across TAF sites between 06z and 09z
Tonight, along with patchy fog. TAFs have IFR conditions thru
14z, then some improvement, though considerable uncertainty
exists on amount or timing of improving conditions.
.MARINE...Uncertain as to the current amount of sea fog over
cooler shelf waters just off coast of se GA this evening...
though hi-res guidance insists in sea fog development during
the evening and overnight in this area with higher dew point
air going over the cooler waters.
A weak frontal boundary will slide slowly southward to near the
FL/GA border by Monday evening. Rainfall chances will increase
overnight tonight through Tuesday, with isolated thunderstorms
possible. A backdoor front will then push through the waters on
Tuesday. High pressure will then build over the waters through
Rip Currents: Low to moderate risk of rip currents.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 63 75 58 65 / 80 70 50 30
SSI 61 72 58 61 / 60 60 40 40
JAX 65 78 61 68 / 60 60 30 40
SGJ 67 77 62 70 / 30 50 40 40
GNV 67 80 63 75 / 40 50 30 40
OCF 66 82 64 79 / 30 50 40 40
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
921 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018
Issued at 920 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018
In coordination with ILN, added a few more counties to the Winter
Weather Advisory on the northeast fringe. This matches up with a
trained spotter report from Henry County indicating light freezing
rain had put down a glaze on most surfaces, and where some of the
banded precip is likely to track over. For now, the rest of the
advisory and forecast is on track.
Issued at 803 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018
Based on upstream reports and radar returns and the latest runs of
the HRRR and RAP and in coordination with PAH, expanded the winter
weather advisory westward across central Kentucky and included a few
southern Indiana counties as well. Also adjusted timing of the
hazard to start now, since precip has moved in a couple hours faster
than originally thought. Updated precip chances, snow and ice
accumulation forecast, and other products through the night.
While the precipitation will be done before 7 am EST /12z/,
lingering snow and ice could create problems for the Monday morning
It`s important to note that this is a low confidence forecast but
the potential for any glaze of ice could create problems overnight.
Also the areal extent of the advisory doesn`t reflect the coverage
of precipitation expected. There will be a narrow stripe or band of
precipitation and not every location will see the measurable
precipitation and potential impacts.
Issued at 705 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018
Light returns showing up across western KY from KVWX and KPAH. Some
mPING and spotter reports coming in with a mix of sleet and freezing
rain from Daviess County and west. Latest surface observations show
the freezing line along the I-65 corridor with upper 20s now across
the western forecast area.
Main challenge is the narrow stripe of precipitation that is expected
to develop later this evening through parts of the overnight hours.
The latest runs of the HRRR and RAP are a bit concerning with a
shift to the west/northwest of its stripe of precipitation, along
the I-64 corridor from around Louisville westward toward Owensboro.
These runs put down up to 0.05" of QPF while thermal profiles would
support a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain.
Will continue to evaluate the need for a westward expansion of the
winter weather advisory but for now, will hold onto the SPS for
Minor adjustments were made to the hourly precipitation chances to
blend with the latest guidance and to start the onset of
precipitation an hour or two earlier based on radar trends and
reports. Temperatures were blended with the latest guidance. QPF was
nudged up a bit, but overall the message for up to 1/2 inch snow and
a glaze of ice is still on track.
.Short Term...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 253 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018
...Light Wintry Mix Likely Tonight Into Early Monday...
Currently enjoying a brief break from the rain in our region this
afternoon. Surface cold front has pushed east of the area, but
there is still a large temperature gradient, with low 30s being
reported in southern Indiana to upper 40s in the Lake Cumberland
Plateau. Temperatures will continue to fall through the afternoon
and early evening as colder air works in behind the front.
Frontogenetical forcing and lift associated with the right-entrance
region of a strong jet streak will allow the development of
precipitation tonight. Models develop a narrow band of precipitation
starting shortly after 00z along the Ohio River, and gradually push
it eastward through the early morning hours. Unfortunately, this
precipitation will be in the form of snow, sleet and/or freezing
rain, making for a potentially messy situation tonight. Current
thinking is that p-type near the Ohio River will be mainly in the
form of snow or sleet, while p-types near and south of the
Bluegrass/Western Kentucky Parkways will be a mixture of snow, sleet
and freezing rain.
The good news is that the band of precipitation is narrow, and
should not reside over one location for more than two to three
hours. This should keep accumulations limited. Additionally, most of
this precipitation will fall during the overnight hours when most
people are not traveling on the roads. Impacts overnight remain
uncertain, as road temperatures are still in the upper 30s to lower
40s near the Ohio River, and closer to mid 40s near and south of the
Bluegrass/Western Kentucky Parkways. The initial wintry
precipitation may melt on non-elevated surfaces to start, but could
end up sticking to the roads as precipitation wraps up. The concern
then turns toward the morning rush hour, where some potentially icy
or slick roads could exist.
Even though snow/sleet amounts will be less than winter weather
advisory criteria, there could be impacts to roads for the morning
rush hour. Untreated elevated surfaces could especially be icy and
slick. As a result, have decided to go with a winter weather
advisory for areas that are most likely to see an impact from the
wintry weather overnight with lingering effects into tomorrow
High pressure builds in tomorrow, and most folks will finally get to
see that bright, shiny orb in the sky known as the sun. The
exception could be southeastern parts of the CWA where stratus may
linger around for most of the day before breaking down in the late
.Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018
Active weather pattern still looks likely for the long term period.
A giant 500mb ridge of high pressure looks to develop over the Gulf
of Mexico and develop quasi-zonal flow aloft for the lower Ohio
River valley. Meanwhile, flow near 700mb/850mb will advect moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico northward across a good portion of the
eastern US. With a juicy airmass in place, subtle waves and systems
could spark off showers as soon as late Tuesday.
By the Thursday-Friday timeframe, a cold front will approach the
region, and widespread soaking rains look possible along and ahead
of it. Unfortunately, models are showing the potential for several
inches of rain with this front, and if this were to verify, we could
be dealing with another round of flooding issues for the CWA.
There is quite a bit of disagreement going into next weekend though
amongst long range models, but it appears that we should have some
drying before potentially more rain moves in. For now, plan to stick
with a drier forecast and introduce better rain chances when models
come into better agreement.
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 612 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018
Weak upper level disturbance is expected to move into the region
tonight bringing a fast moving band of light precipitation. The
precipitation looks to affect KSDF/KBWG/KLEX later tonight and early
Monday morning (probably 12/04Z through 12/09Z). Precipitation
looks to be in the form of rain/sleet at KBWG and likely light snow
and some sleet at KSDF and KLEX. Ceilings are expected to remain in
the high end of the IFR range overnight. The exception looks to be
KHNB which looks to stay in the MVFR range. The light precipitation
may result in some MVFR vsbys with a possible short drop to IFR over
at KLEX between 12/05-09Z.
By sunrise Monday, the system is expected to be well past the sites
with low clouds clearing out in the morning and VFR conditions
expected to return.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Monday for
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Monday for
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
704 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018
Updated to lower overnight PoPs.
Radar trends over the past 2 hours shows diminishing precipitation
returns...both with an initial band that`s in the Mississippi
River Valley and a secondary band across central and northern
Arkansas. In addition the HRRR model continues to back off on
coverage each hour...so have lowered precipitation chances to
slight for the remainder of the night. An SPS is still in
effect...but feel that northwest Tennessee stands the only risk
for patchy minor accumulations.
The remaining forecast appears to be on track.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 556 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018/
Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018/
At 3PM...A band of possible mixed precipitation has developed
just to our northwest with the aid of a shortwave currently over
Oklahoma. Temperatures are currently below freezing in that area,
but the depth of cold air is still remains in question.
In the short term, the aforementioned band of precipitation will
affect the Mid-South through the late tonight. Due to the
uncertainty of how quick the band will move and available
moisture, only a Special Weather Statement was issued to address
possible light freezing rain and sleet. Coverage and duration are
expected to be low, and marginal temperatures will keep any sleet
or ice from accumulation confined to the ground. Hi-Res model
guidance shows the band of mixed precipitation moving out of the
Mid-South a couple of hours before sunrise.
A brief drying period will occur on Monday and much of Tuesday
before the pattern becomes quite unsettled. Monday will be on the
cool and dry side as arctic high pressure builds in from the
north. The sun will make an appearance across the northern
portions of the Mid-South, with breaks in the clouds further
south. Temperatures will top out in the 40s areawide.
For Tuesday, clouds will be on the increase as southwest flow
streams upper level moisture back into the region. After sundown,
showers and possible a thunderstorm will begin to move into the
Mid-South as a warm front begins to lift north. The best chance of
rain appears to be on Wednesday during the day as we remain in the
warm sector of a loosely organized low over Oklahoma.
Unsettled and mild weather is expected to remain over the Mid-
South through at least the coming weekend as the Mid-South remains
in southwest flow aloft. Disturbances in the mean flow will bring
the Mid-South periods of showers and a few thunderstorms to the
region. Synoptic models have gotten together with timing of a cold
front pushing through the Mid-South Friday into Saturday.
Still too early to tell, but both models are hinting at a
significant arctic intrusion by next weekend. Stay tuned.
MVFR cigs will prevail through late evening along with chances for
mixed precip at most taf sites, with the exception being KTUP
where all rain should occur. Any precip should remain very light
but any sleet or freezing rain could be briefly problematic. This
threat has been timed out in tempos through the evening. Cigs
should gradually improve from west to east late tonight into
Monday morning with VFR cigs making a return. VFR conditions
should remain predominant through much of Monday/Monday evening.
Winds will remain north to northeast overnight through Monday with
increasing speeds later this evening through Monday.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
820 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018
Snow showers are expected to develop tonight as much colder air
moves over the region. Those should end early Monday with generally
dry and seasonal conditions for the beginning of the work-week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A mid eve update was issued to adjust POPs for declining light
rain in the wake of the cold front. The HRRR and consensus short
guidance indicate northward development of a band of snow
showers (currently indicated by radar over sw OH) as the night
progresses. These appear to be developing along the ~850 mb
front and may produce some inch-or-less snowfall from PIT
southward during the predawn of Monday.
No change was needed for the near average low temperature
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Broad surface high builds in from the west Monday leading to
much drier conditions and clearing skies. Temperatures will
return to normal values for Monday with the increased
The surface high is centered just northeast of the region
Tuesday afternoon, but return flow will begin to push southern
moisture back into the area. This will return clouds and
eventual light rain/drizzle back to the area for Wednesday.
Temperatures will continue to rise through midweek with readings
well above average by Wednesday.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The next area of low pressure is projected to begin impacting
the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Temperatures are forecast
well above average for mid week (+15 to 20 degrees) given expectations
of strong warm advection. That warmth is likely to be
interrupted by a late week cold front which will drive readings
back to seasonal levels.
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Deteriorated conditions can be expected through the evening as
rain and the advance of a cold front affect the region. Improvement
to MVFR will occur tonight with VFR anticipated by, or shortly
after daybreak at all ports on Monday.
The next restriction potential is anticipated with a Wednesday
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
900 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018
A cold front pushes east through the Mid Atlantic region
overnight. High pressure moves from New England on Tuesday to
Georgia on Wednesday. The next cold front crosses the area late
in the week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 850 PM EST Sunday...
Surface cold front remains just west of the region late this
evening and will only slowly make its way across the area
overnight. This should bring some drying to northwest sections
later as cool advection works in on weak northwest flow. However
the deeper moisture plume remains stuck just east of the
mountains and will be slow to push east given weak ripples aloft
riding up the boundary. Latest HRRR shows this with another weak
wave pushing deeper moisture back into the southeast counties
overnight, with this lingering from the foothills and points
southeast early Monday. This should bring another round of
showers with best coverage south/east overnight and only spotty
bands farther north where will only go with chance pops.
Otherwise expect clouds and slowness of the 85h front to the
northwest to allow lows to remain warmer espcly southeast where
may struggle to get too far below 60. Elsewhere running with a
range from mid/upper 30s far northwest to 40s Blue Ridge and
mostly 50s out east.
Previous discussion as of 240 PM EST Sunday...
Decided to cancel the flood watch as rainfall overall has subsided
quite a bit, and latest guidance showing low threat of heavy rain
into tonight. Will still see minor to low lying flooding in some of
the mountain rivers, with rises along main stem rivers east of the
Blue Ridge. However, rainfall amounts through tonight are not
expected to exacerbate the issue.
Appears deeper moisture plume has switched to the east, though still
linger moisture transport ahead of the front arriving tonight should
bring a good chance of showers. Appears deep convection in the
Florida panhandle/southwest GA and Gulf Coast could have lowered the
amounts this afternoon.
Should be a tale of two temperature readings tonight as cold
advection starts to head into the mountains after midnight while the
piedmont remains mild, with lows ranging from the mid to upper 30s
in Southeast WV to mid 50s in the southeast piedmont from Danville
to the NC foothills.
Front works southeast of us early Monday while another wave of low
pressure shifts from across SC. Models trending somewhat east with
the rain threat, but expect a little slower per upper flow. We
actually may see some sunshine return from the Mountain Empire of SW
VA northeast toward Lynchburg by the afternoon. Temps will be cooler
but still above normal Monday, ranging from the lower 40s in
Southeast WV to mid to upper 50s in NC and the VA piedmont.
Monday night, high pressure wedges southward from New York while
inverted trough sets up along the southern Appalachians. Some return
flow of moisture will result in chance of showers mainly over our NC
counties, but moreso in the mountains of NC, with less threat toward
the Alleghanys and VA piedmont north of Danville. Cooler flow from
the north then northeast will bring low temps in the 30s.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EST Sunday...
Upper ridge stays situated over the southeast with a fast wsw flow
over our region while upper low stays off the California coast
Tuesday. Through Wed night the upper flow shears out into the Great
Basin with continued fast zonal flow across the east. At the
surface, high pressure will be situated across the east coast with
a light southeast flow over the mountains. Residual moisture per
upslope and warm advection along/west of the Appalachians may lead
to a small threat of showers through midweek. Wedged in with
maritime cloudiness Tuesday will lead to highs stuck in the 40s,
except some lower 50s in the southwest toward Richlands and
Chilhowie VA. By Wednesday the flow will more out of the south such
that warm air starts to nudge northward and look for highs in the
mid 50s to lower 60s.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 PM EST Sunday...
No big change this period except warmer temps now expected Thursday
into Friday ahead of a cold front that moves across Friday. Despite
the higher pops appears more spring like Thursday as temperature
soar into the 60s, and maybe even 70 in the piedmont of NC. A mild
Thursday night followed by slightly cooler but above normal temps
Friday, with highs in the lower to mid 50s mountains, to lower 60s
over the piedmont.
Trends in the models are showing a slower movement in the front, so
kept chance pops in Friday night through the weekend as the front
hangs up to our south and another wave possibly poses another rain
or wintry wx threat next Sunday.
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 605 PM EST Sunday...
Bands of showers look to linger this evening ahead of a weak
cold front that should cross the mountains around midnight and
eastern sections before dawn on Monday. Passage of the front
likely to allow some drying especially over the northwest toward
KLWB/KBLF and into the KROA/KBCB area toward dawn. However,
most of the time expect sub- VFR conditions especially for cigs
with localized MVFR in heavier showers mainly this evening.
Additional showers may also affect KDAN toward daybreak as
another weak impulse slides up the boundary but iffy so wont
include mention for now.
Lower levels to slowly dry from north to south on Monday as
high pressure builds to the north by afternoon. This may allow
most spots excluding perhaps KDAN to return to VFR beneath a
residual strato-cu/mid deck through the day.
Extended Aviation Discussion...
High pressure builds into the area going thru Monday night but
some low level clouds may situate themselves across the KBLF-
KBCB and points south by Tuesday, as a low level wedge
Some slow improvement occurs as the wedge weakens on Wednesday.
Another cold front may then bring another round of sub-VFR in
low cigs and showers on Thursday-Friday.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
740 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018
Winter Weather Advisory has expired as areas of light precipitation
have mostly ended where temperatures are at or below freezing. We
could still see some patchy light rain or sleet through midnight
with weak upper level impulses transitioning across the region but
don`t expect issues related to travel impacts as trace amounts are
likely all that will occur. Therefore, no plans for any additional
winter weather headlines at this time. Updated text products have
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 712 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018/
For the 12/00Z terminal forecast period, will prevail MVFR flight
categories at most sites between 1-3KFT with KMLU and KLFK
forecast to become IFR. Lower clouds to erode with KTYR and KGGG
returning to VFR near 12/03Z followed by KSHV, KMLU, KTXK, and
KELD becoming VFR around 12/09Z, trailed by KLFK around 12/11Z.
Could see a few sprinkles of rain or light sleet but those will be
across Northwest Louisiana and into East Texas between Carthage
Texas and Shreveport/Bossier to Haynesville Louisiana through
12/03Z. Surface winds will be Northwest to North 7-12 knots
overnight and will increase slightly to the Northeast 10-15 knots
on Monday. /06/
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018/
Mid level vort continues to push ewd across our region this aftn,
providing enough lift to generate a band of convection that extends
from Central TX through SW AR. Reports of sleet and freezing rain
continue with this band of convection, with numerous reports of
slick bridges and overpasses and even some reports of ground-
level roadways becoming slick coming in. Over the last few hours,
HRRR has consistently shown this band of convection persisting
ewd into Deep E TX/N LA by early this evening. Dew points across
these areas are in the mid to upper 20s for the most part, with
temps in the low to mid 30s, and there is a good chance that these
temps could wet-bulb down to or below freezing. Therefore, have
further extended the Winter Weather Advisory to include portions
of these areas through 7 pm for the possibility of hazardous road
conditions, mainly on bridges and overpasses. Areas even further
east of the aforementioned could still see some sleet pellets
mixed in with the shwrs, but warmer temps/dew points will allow
the sleet to melt upon contact. Precip to gradually diminish this
evening as it moves ewd and out of our area tonight.
Despite swly flow aloft, weak sfc ridging will keep us dry for
Monday, with temps rebounding into the 50s at most sites. However,
steepening, disturbed flow ahead of a deepening closed low over
srn CA Tuesday will allow for rain/drizzle to return to the
region. This will begin a period of generally unsettled
conditions, with at least some slight chances for rain each day
and temps climbing to well above normal by mid week. Despite some
model inconsistencies, chances for widespread convection look to
come into play by Friday into the weekend, as the CA trof finally
rejoins the main flow and pushes into the Southern Plains. /12/
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 33 53 38 56 / 20 10 10 20
MLU 35 51 38 57 / 20 10 10 20
DEQ 26 51 31 53 / 10 0 10 20
TXK 29 49 34 52 / 10 0 10 20
ELD 30 50 34 54 / 20 0 10 20
TYR 28 53 39 55 / 10 0 10 30
GGG 30 53 38 54 / 10 0 10 30
LFK 32 57 43 58 / 20 10 10 30