Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/27/18
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
951 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018
.AVIATION...
For the 06Z TAFs, surface cold front has moved south of the
terminal sites. North winds will continue to subside during the
late evening and overnight hours, then become south to southwest
Saturday afternoon.
Andrade
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 602 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018/
AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, a cold front has moved through KGUY and KDHT and
will move across KAMA early this evening with gusty north winds in
its wake for several hours. Wind speeds will slowly diminsh from
north to south later this evening and tonight, then become
southwest Saturday afternoon.
Andrade
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 341 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018/
DISCUSSION...
We are beginning to see the drought and lack of ground moisture really
impact weather and model performance, similar to 2011. No model
handled the degree of mixing today. This led to model busts in
dewpoint/RD and winds. The HRRR finally seemed to catch up this
aftn. So the extreme mixing behind a dryline type feature allowed
winds to increase to 20-30 mph with gusts exceeding 40 mph while
dewpoints crashed into the single digits. Did a last minute red
flag to account for this. Otherwise a cold front will move across
the area tonight bringing a brief period of gusty north winds
through evening before high pressure begins to settle into the
area overnight. This will also lead to cooler conditions through
the weekend. Another disturbance in NW mid level flow will push a
re-enforcing front across the region on Sunday.
Mid-upr level ridging will help lead to a warm-up and above
normal temps around 70 Tuesday. Another s/wv will continue to
amplify the ERN US trough and this will push another stronger
cold front into the area by Thursday with temps falling to near or
slightly below normal values. Looks like the s/wv will traverse
more across the central plains and will amplify more to the east
across the MS River Valley. This would most likely preclude post
frontal precip for the Panhandles. Add 7 more days to the AMA dry
streak.
FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag conditions will continue through 6 pm across the north.
Winds will drop below critical levels in the south as well
briefly, but given much slower RH recovery and expected increase
in winds with the frontal passage, we extended the red flag until
9 pm for the southern sections. ERC values has reached record
levels in the Panhandles today. Not seeing red flag conditions
Very dry conditions will continue with elevated fire conditions at
various periods. It appears Tuesday will be the most elevated
day, but currently forecasts keep winds below critical values.
&&
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
626 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard moves out to sea
tonight and Saturday. A cold front will spread rain across the
area Saturday night into Sunday night. Dry weather will return
Monday through Thursday as high pressure overspreads the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
High pressure continues moving away from the region with upper
level clouds spreading over the area. Additional moisture will
continue moving into the region with clouds thickening and
lowering. With the clouds, overnight temperatures will be
warmer with lows ranging from the upper 30s in the northern
Midlands to the mid 40s in the CSRA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Increasing moisture and rain chances will be on going on through
the day on Saturday ahead of another approaching system. A
surface low will develop across the northern Gulf of Mexico
through the period, and trough approaching from the northwest
will keep the upper flow generally out of the southwest.
Isolated to scattered showers should begin developing late in
the afternoon Saturday, with increasing rain chances throughout
Saturday night into Sunday. Widespread rainfall is expected
Sunday into Sunday night ahead of the system. The bulk of the
rainfall will be exiting the region very late Sunday night into
Monday morning, with only light lingering activity late.
Temperatures will moderate back into the 60s for daytime highs
through the weekend. Lows Saturday night will be in the lower
50s, with slightly cooler readings expected for Sunday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
After maybe a few lingering light sprinkles early in the
morning Monday, drier and cooler air will once again return to
the area through Wednesday as high pressure at the surface
dominates. By Thursday the upper pattern flattens out and then
turns more southwesterly once again ahead of the next rain
maker. Temperature cool through the middle of the week, then
return to back to normal or above normal by the Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High confidence for VFR through at least 06z. There is some
potential for MVFR ceilings toward morning especially near
AGS/DNL terminals.
Mid and high level clouds will continue to spread across the
region this evening. Pressure ridge centered along the North
Carolina coast will shift east. East low level flow will
increase and this will result in an increase in low- level
moisture overnight into Saturday. Broken strato-cu along the
coast will spread inland through the period. Guidance suggests
mainly VFR ceilings although SREF and HRRR suggest threat for
MVFR Saturday morning mainly near AGS and DNL terminals. Winds
will be mainly from the east-southeast through the period less
than 10 knots.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions expected at times into
Monday as the low pressure system crosses the region.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
937 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018
.DISCUSSION...
Just a few changes. Mainly lowered rain chances over southern
inland areas and kept them moderate over the NE where small scale
models still hint at coastal showers overnight. Also kept low
chance POPs over the extreme NW where short-term models indicate
some lift. Adjusted temperatures and dew points (mainly over the
NW) using the RAP13 through about 06Z then blended the RAP with
the previous forecast when model and forecast seemed to converge.
Fog is still expected to develop overnight, including over the
nearshore waters where dew points are increasing. Do not think the
fog will be dense at this time, but will monitor.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 62 70 56 68 46 / 30 50 30 10 10
Victoria 59 71 53 69 42 / 40 50 20 10 0
Laredo 58 69 55 68 45 / 20 50 50 20 10
Alice 61 73 54 70 45 / 20 50 30 20 10
Rockport 59 68 54 66 48 / 40 50 30 10 0
Cotulla 59 71 52 69 42 / 40 50 20 10 0
Kingsville 62 72 56 69 46 / 20 50 30 20 10
Navy Corpus 59 69 57 67 50 / 40 50 40 20 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM/MESO/AVIATION/ETC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
930 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach and move through the region Saturday
into Saturday night. High pressure will allow for dry conditions
for the second part of the weekend on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Latest radar image shows light returns across Indiana into
Michigan thanks to a potent LLJ and WAA. The KILN 27.00Z
sounding shows abundant dry air in place between 500 and 850 mb
which will first have to moderate before any precip reaches the
ground (right now mostly virga). Not until western Indiana are
obs starting to show precip. The light returns out in western
Indiana will likely push east overnight with the weak WAA. A
secondary band of showers will develop southwest of the area
Saturday morning as PVA begins to move northeast out of Missouri
towards Ohio. Omega values not surprisingly light up with this
second batch of precipitation thanks to the widespread WAA and
PVA. Upper level support also becomes more impressive as an
upper level jet streak strengthens over Michigan, putting the
area in a RRQ. Given the strengthening upper level support, PVA,
WAA, and PWAT values around the 90th percentile for this time
of year have kept PoPs above 90%. The main change with the PoPs
was timing. The HRRR and RAP were a tad slower than the 12z ARW
and NMM, but the latest ARW and NMM support the new RAP and
HRRR. Therefore have trended the forecast slower.
Prev Discussion->
Dry conditions will be present this evening across the region.
A weak cold front will bring showers to the region beginning
late in the overnight hours tonight. With mostly clear skies
across a large portion of the region temperatures will drop off
early tonight. As clouds move in overnight may see some
temperature rises especially across western portions of the
region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Southerly flow will continue during the day on Saturday with
some wind gusts around 20 to 30 mph. Rain will continue to
overspread the area during the day and then taper off from
northwest to southeast overnight Saturday night. Isentropic lift
across far southeastern portions of the forecast area will
linger precipitation across that area. Cooler air will work into
the area Saturday night with the passage of the cold front.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Pcpn should be exiting the area by the start of the long term period
on Sunday as the cold front continues to push off to the east. Weak
CAA will persist through the day on Saturday in the wake of the
front with highs generally in the low to mid 40s. Stronger CAA will
then overspread the area as a sharpening trough pushes quickly east
across the region Sunday night into Monday. This will be accompanied
by some embedded short wave energy which could result in some
isolated to scattered snow showers activity later Sunday night into
Monday. Highs on Monday will be in the low to mid 30s.
Mid and upper level ridging will progress east across the region
Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of a digging trough axis moving out of
the Rockies. This trough axis will continue to strengthen as it
works east through the end of the work week. This will eventually
allow for a developing surface low to move northeast across eastern
portions of the CONUS. The 12Z operational ECMWF and CMC are more
progressive than the 12Z GFS with this but there remains quite a bit
of spread still in the various ensembles. Will go ahead and maintain
a dry forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday and then spread increasing
pops in Wednesday night into Thursday. Will keep pops going into
Thursday night before beginning to taper them off through the day on
Friday. Pcpn will start off as rain showers Wednesday night and
probably mainly through the day on Friday. However, depending on the
timing and placement of the surface low and associated cold front,
pcpn will likely mix with and then transition over to snow Thursday
night into Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High clouds continue to stream into the region tonight as an
upper level trough axis over the plains heads east. As the night
progresses clouds will continue to lower and eventually fall to
MVFR by Saturday morning. Initial precipitation to move into
the area will be weak WAA driven along with a splitting jet. As
this happens the low level jet will tighten with winds at 2kft
exceeding 50 kts. As of now only have LLWS mentioned for the
morning hours, with the NAM indicating it could continue into
the early afternoon of Saturday. Later Saturday morning into
early afternoon the upper level jet will strengthen along with
PVA spilling across the area. This means that rainfall will
likely pick up with some restrictions in visibilities to IFR
possible.
A surface cold front will then cross the TAF sites late Saturday
early Sunday. Behind the cold front winds go calm and with
dewpoint depressions already being near zero fog will be
possible. SREF probabilities continue to light up on this. For
now have just introduced the mention at KCVG.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible on
Monday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haines/Novak
NEAR TERM...Haines/Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Haines/Novak
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
919 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018
.UPDATE...
Showers ahead of an approaching cold front are already impacting
much of Eastern Arkansas and portions of Northwest Tennessee. The
latest HRRR also shows an area of showers developing over Southern
Arkansas and Northwest Mississippi that will spread north and
east impacting much of North Mississippi and Southwest Tennessee
by sunrise. Will update to bump up POPS accordingly.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018/
Skies remain sunny over much of the forecast area this afternoon
with temperatures in the lower 60s. Currently, a cold front
extends from northern Minnesota through central Kansas and into
eastern New Mexico.
This front will move east across the southern Plains states and
into northwest Arkansas by Saturday morning. Rain will develop
ahead of the front and precipitation is expected to move into the
forecast area after midnight. Temperatures will remain mild
tonight with lows Saturday morning in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
The cold front will move into the forecast area on Saturday with
more rain expected. Temperatures will remain above normal with
highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. The cold front will move out of
the region Saturday night with rain ending from northwest to
southeast. Temperatures will turn colder behind the cold front but
will remain above normal with lows Sunday morning from the mid 30s
to upper 40s. As the front continues to move away from the
forecast area on Sunday some rain may linger across portions of
west Tennessee and north Mississippi in the morning. Temperatures
will be a little cooler on Sunday but will remain above normal
with highs in the mid to upper 50s.
High pressure will take over across the eastern half of the U.S.
by Sunday night with dry weather expected for Sunday night through
Wednesday. Temperatures will cool down to below normal levels for
Monday and Tuesday and then moderate some by Wednesday.
A new cold front will start to approach the region by Wednesday
night with rain starting to move into the forecast area. As the
cold front approaches the region on Thursday and move through the
forecast area on Thursday night, more rain is expected. As colder
air moves into the area behind the cold front late Thursday night,
rain could change over to snow before precipitation ends. As the
cold front moves out of the region next Friday, precipitation will
be ending over eastern sections with rain or snow possible
depending on what temperatures are like.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through much of the night. Conditions
will gradual lower to MVFR from west to east late tonight into
Saturday morning as rain spreads east ahead of an approaching cold
front. There should be a period of IFR cigs during the day. The
front will move through just after noon at KJBR and during the
late afternoon at KMEM and KMKL with some improvement to MVFR as
rain tapers off.
Winds will be southerly around 10 kts ahead of the front shifting
to northwest/north at 5-10 kts after the front moves through.
SJM
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
931 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018
.DISCUSSION...
A thin line of precipitation has developed over the last
hour or so in north central Oklahoma. An occasional lightning
strike or two have also been observed which is coincident with
35-40 dbz values to -10C. A few HRRR runs have precipitation
developing as far west as Lawton during the overnight hours.
Considering increasing POPs a little, especially along and east
of Highway 81. Overall the forecast is in good shape.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 455 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018/
.Fire
Weather... Critical fire weather conditions will remain possible
through this evening across parts of northwestern Oklahoma.
DISCUSSION...
Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
Winds will weaken slightly after sunset, and then increase late
tonight behind a cold front as they shift from the north. Some
brief MVFR cigs and showers will accompany the front. Winds will
also gust to around 20 to 25 kt behind the front from around
04-09Z at most terminals. Cigs will generally clear by sunrise,
although some high clouds may persist.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018/
DISCUSSION...
For tonight, a cold front (that is currently across the
Oklahoma/Texas panhandles) will continue to shift southeastward.
Scattered showers are expected to develop along the cold front by
mid-evening--especially along and east of I-44. Rainfall amounts
are expected to be light. Isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled
out with some elevated instability present. Scattered showers may
also develop ahead of the front within an isentropic ascent/warm
air advection regime across southeast Oklahoma.
After tonight, above-average temperatures are expected to
continue into the upcoming weekend as the air mass behind this
front will be originating off the High Plains. High temperatures
Saturday and Sunday will generally range from the mid-50Fs to
mid-60Fs.
By late Sunday, a shortwave trough will pass by the northern
Plains. The attendant cold front will pass by with a colder air
mass for Monday. The source region for this air mass will be from
Canada/Northern Plains, so this front is expected to drop
temperatures to near average (generally mid-40Fs to mid-50Fs).
Warmer and breezy weather is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday ahead
of the next system. Near critical to critical fire weather
conditions might be possible these two days with low humidity,
breezy winds, and warm temperatures--especially across the west.
Another cold front is expected to pass by Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night, which will drop temperatures back near average
once again on Thursday. There is a low chance of rain behind this
cold front--primarily across eastern Oklahoma. Most locations are
currently expected to remain dry.
Mahale
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 38 57 32 61 / 40 0 0 0
Hobart OK 35 58 29 61 / 10 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 41 60 32 62 / 20 0 0 0
Gage OK 27 56 29 60 / 10 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 33 57 28 59 / 20 0 0 0
Durant OK 47 60 35 61 / 70 20 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for OKZ004-005-009-
010-014.
TX...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
507 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Stratus is resulting in MVFR ceilings at the southern 3 sites and
expect the stratus to expand northward this evening, resulting in
MVFR ceilings at KABI and KSJT. IFR/LIFR ceilings are forecast to
develop at the southern 3 sites early Saturday morning. A cold
front will move through the area Saturday morning, resulting in
gusty north winds of 10 to 12 knots. Slowly clearing skies are
expected behind the cold front, with VFR conditions developing
within an hour or two behind the front.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 234 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)
Upper level trough axis set to slide east across West Central Texas
by Saturday afternoon. Ahead of this axis, a few light showers will
remain possible across the Hill Country and Heartland this evening.
As a cold front moves into the Big Country shortly after midnight
and into the Concho Valley and Heartland, latest HRRR shows a little
more shower activity developing with the lift from the front itself.
Given the low level moisture in place, this seems entirely plausible
and have shifted the mention of a showers as far west as Abilene and
San Angelo. By far, the better chance of rain will come late tonight
and early Saturday morning across an area southeast of a Brownwood
to Brady to Junction line, where the best low level moisture will
combine with the frontal lift and the lift from the upper level
trough axis.
Front will make it through the area by mid morning on Saturday,
allowing a slightly cooler and much drier air mass to move into West
Central Texas. Highs will be in the lower 60s for Saturday.
LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)
It will be quiet weather pattern Saturday night into the work
week next week. Surface high pressure and dry air will build in
Saturday night and Sunday before moving east Monday night. Breezy
south to southwest winds develop Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday,
as as surface low develops in southeast Colorado and the Texas
Panhandle. The main weather concerns are elevate fire weather
conditions.
A cold front will move through Thursday. With only shallow
moisture return, however, and with upper support well north of the
the region, dry conditions continue. Cold advection is not strong
initially with the front on Thursday, but colder air will
infiltrate by Friday, with highs in the 50s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 41 61 32 61 / 20 5 0 0
San Angelo 45 63 32 64 / 20 10 0 0
Junction 50 62 34 65 / 30 30 0 0
Brownwood 47 62 35 63 / 30 20 0 0
Sweetwater 40 59 30 61 / 5 5 0 0
Ozona 44 61 33 64 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Daniels