Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/26/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
608 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2018
.AVIATION...
Over-performing upper low and showers kicking east of the area
early this evening, with drier air aloft filling in behind. Lower
levels expected to retain southerly component and lead to
increasing moisture overnight into early Friday. Solutions
continue to portray low level moisture improving overnight - RAP
suggests near 850 millibar saturation just south of KCDS during
the evening before shunting to the east. Otherwise, shallower
moisture expected to move into both KLBB and KPVW before daybreak
and have retained previous depiction until can gander over evening
output. RMcQueen
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2018/
DISCUSSION...
Area of lift associated with an approaching wave has resulted in
some elevated showers and thunderstorms developing across the
southern Rolling Plains into the Permian Basin. A few West Texas
mesonet sites south of the forecast area have reported a hundredth
of an inch of precipitation and reports from social media show
that there is even some small hail in the stronger cores with that
activity. The NAM12 does show that some instability aloft in this
region with around 100 J/kg elevated CAPE on soundings. Very dry
boundary layer is keeping much of the precipitation from reaching
the ground except under the stronger cores so for the most part,
the forecast area will be dry. Did have to expand the Red Flag
Warning to the edge of the Caprock across the southern Rolling
Plains; see the Fire Weather section for more information.
Once this wave passes by all models show the development of a weak
low-level jet which will transport increased boundary layer
moisture into the southeastern portion of the forecast area. There
are still difference on how far northwest this moisture will push
but the general consensus is that the southeastern third to half
of the area could see dewpoints climb into the low 40s by
sunrise tomorrow. Low clouds may also be a possibility especially
the further south and east you head as moisture content will
increase in that direction. Unfortunately much of the moisture
will mix out by the afternoon across the Caprock but some could
hang around the Rolling Plains through the day. Even with the
warmer temperatures, RH values will stay between 15 to 20 percent
on the Caprock with near 30 percent for the Rolling Plains and
wind speeds will be a bit lower than today which should help a bit
with the fire danger.
A cold front will push across the area late Friday night into
early Saturday bringing temps back into the 50s to near 60 for
Saturday. Quick return to light southerly flow will take place on
Sunday ahead of a weak back-door front on Sunday night. Quiet
weather continues for Monday before wind speeds ramp up the middle
of next week with zonal flow aloft and the redevelopment of the
lee surface trough. Temperatures will warm back into the 70s by
Wednesday before the next front arrives sometime Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. The GFS is faster than the ECMWF in the 12Z
runs so will go with the difference between the two for the end of
this forecast cycle.
Jordan
FIRE WEATHER...
Two different concerns for Red Flag conditions will continue
through the afternoon; wind speeds and RH across the northern
Rolling Plains with the potential for dry lighting across the
southern Rolling Plains up to the edge of the Caprock. We are
still seeing some lightning activity across the southern Rolling
Plains but this will decrease after sunset as the area of
precipitation moves northeast of the forecast area. There is some
precipitation reaching the ground as West Texas Mesonet sites have
reported around 0.01 inches under the stronger storms but this
will not help improve fuel moisture levels.
There will be good moisture recovery overnight tonight across the
southeastern half of the South Plains and all of the Rolling
Plains as southerly wind pulls in low-level moisture.
Unfortunately this moisture will mix east through the day as west
wind redevelops. This will bump temperatures into the 60s but the
increased moisture will help keep RH values in the 15 to 20
percent range across the caprock and near 30 percent over the
Rolling Plains. Then a weak cold front will push across the area
Friday evening resulting in light northeast wind and cooler
temperatures, but with a slightly drier airmass dropping minimum
RH values back into the teens.
Jordan
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ025-026-031-
032-036>038-042>044.
&&
$$
99/99/05
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1003 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2018
.DISCUSSION...
The evening cirrus shield has thickened up this evening over
portions of Lower E TX into SE TX, as well as much of Srn and
Cntrl LA, along the Srn branch of the subtropical jet beneath the
well-defined shortwave lifting NE across Wrn OK/N TX. Meanwhile,
CU and AC cigs continue to spread NNE across N TX and Srn OK this
evening ahead of the Srn Plains shortwave, and will begin
spreading into SE OK/the Wrn sections of E TX between 06-09Z. In
fact, a narrow band of -SHRA along the apex of this shortwave has
held together for much of this evening from W TX/Ern TX Panhandle,
with the 00Z NAM and latest runs of the HRRR suggesting that this
elevated -RA may reach portions of McCurtain County OK and the Wrn
sections of E TX shortly before 12Z Friday.
Have added slight chance pops late tonight for these areas,
although mainly trace amounts of QPF is expected as the air mass
continues to saturate from the top down. Have also expanded slight
chance pops farther E across the remainder of the region Friday as
the remnants of this mid-level shortwave and associated theta-e
ridging will linger across the region. Min temps tonight are a
tough call, as there is currently quite a range especially in the
more protected areas of SE OK/SW AR and portions of E TX. Did
lower temps a tad across much of SW AR/N LA/extreme Ern TX where
the presence of the sfc ridge will linger overnight, despite the
cirrus shield in place. Also bumped up min temps a tad over the
Wrn sections of E TX, where SErly winds will persist and the cigs
will arrive here in a few hours, thus slowing the temp fall, and
may even allow them to warm a bit.
Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.
/15/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 521 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2018/
AVIATION...
IR Satellite Imagery this evening showing high level moisture in
the form of Cirrus across much of our airspace this evening in
association with a 60-80kt upper level jet streak lifting out of
the southern plains. Below this is an area of 5-8kft moisture
advancing north and east across the TX Hill Country which will be
making its appearance across our terminal airspace late tonight
and through the day Friday. Ceilings should remain VFR with the
onset of the lower cloud cover and through much of the day with
ceilings likely becoming MVFR just beyond this 24hr TAF cycle.
Winds overnight will be light from the south and east with 5-10kts
possible across the TYR/GGG and TXK terminal locations with all
locations becoming southerly to southeasterly near 10kts areawide
on Friday after sunrise.
/13/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 37 57 53 62 / 0 20 50 60
MLU 34 59 53 61 / 0 20 40 70
DEQ 31 53 50 59 / 10 20 60 50
TXK 39 56 51 60 / 0 20 50 50
ELD 33 57 52 60 / 0 20 50 50
TYR 44 57 54 62 / 10 20 50 50
GGG 39 57 54 62 / 10 20 50 60
LFK 39 59 55 65 / 10 20 40 70
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
15/13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
904 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2018
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
Narrow band of showers stretching from southwest OK into
northern TX continues to track gradually northeast, ahead
of a fast moving upper wave. HRRR suggests this activity
could hold together into the overnight hours, with a few
showers possible mainly across eastern OK. Have made a few
minor tweaks to PoPs, otherwise forecast is in good shape.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 45 61 40 60 / 20 0 60 10
FSM 40 55 45 62 / 10 10 80 40
MLC 45 57 46 62 / 20 10 70 30
BVO 44 63 36 60 / 10 0 50 10
FYV 42 54 43 58 / 20 10 90 30
BYV 40 56 41 57 / 10 10 80 30
MKO 42 58 41 59 / 20 10 80 20
MIO 43 61 39 58 / 20 10 60 10
F10 45 60 43 60 / 20 0 60 20
HHW 42 55 47 61 / 20 10 70 50
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18