Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/26/18

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
608 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2018 .AVIATION... Over-performing upper low and showers kicking east of the area early this evening, with drier air aloft filling in behind. Lower levels expected to retain southerly component and lead to increasing moisture overnight into early Friday. Solutions continue to portray low level moisture improving overnight - RAP suggests near 850 millibar saturation just south of KCDS during the evening before shunting to the east. Otherwise, shallower moisture expected to move into both KLBB and KPVW before daybreak and have retained previous depiction until can gander over evening output. RMcQueen && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2018/ DISCUSSION... Area of lift associated with an approaching wave has resulted in some elevated showers and thunderstorms developing across the southern Rolling Plains into the Permian Basin. A few West Texas mesonet sites south of the forecast area have reported a hundredth of an inch of precipitation and reports from social media show that there is even some small hail in the stronger cores with that activity. The NAM12 does show that some instability aloft in this region with around 100 J/kg elevated CAPE on soundings. Very dry boundary layer is keeping much of the precipitation from reaching the ground except under the stronger cores so for the most part, the forecast area will be dry. Did have to expand the Red Flag Warning to the edge of the Caprock across the southern Rolling Plains; see the Fire Weather section for more information. Once this wave passes by all models show the development of a weak low-level jet which will transport increased boundary layer moisture into the southeastern portion of the forecast area. There are still difference on how far northwest this moisture will push but the general consensus is that the southeastern third to half of the area could see dewpoints climb into the low 40s by sunrise tomorrow. Low clouds may also be a possibility especially the further south and east you head as moisture content will increase in that direction. Unfortunately much of the moisture will mix out by the afternoon across the Caprock but some could hang around the Rolling Plains through the day. Even with the warmer temperatures, RH values will stay between 15 to 20 percent on the Caprock with near 30 percent for the Rolling Plains and wind speeds will be a bit lower than today which should help a bit with the fire danger. A cold front will push across the area late Friday night into early Saturday bringing temps back into the 50s to near 60 for Saturday. Quick return to light southerly flow will take place on Sunday ahead of a weak back-door front on Sunday night. Quiet weather continues for Monday before wind speeds ramp up the middle of next week with zonal flow aloft and the redevelopment of the lee surface trough. Temperatures will warm back into the 70s by Wednesday before the next front arrives sometime Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The GFS is faster than the ECMWF in the 12Z runs so will go with the difference between the two for the end of this forecast cycle. Jordan FIRE WEATHER... Two different concerns for Red Flag conditions will continue through the afternoon; wind speeds and RH across the northern Rolling Plains with the potential for dry lighting across the southern Rolling Plains up to the edge of the Caprock. We are still seeing some lightning activity across the southern Rolling Plains but this will decrease after sunset as the area of precipitation moves northeast of the forecast area. There is some precipitation reaching the ground as West Texas Mesonet sites have reported around 0.01 inches under the stronger storms but this will not help improve fuel moisture levels. There will be good moisture recovery overnight tonight across the southeastern half of the South Plains and all of the Rolling Plains as southerly wind pulls in low-level moisture. Unfortunately this moisture will mix east through the day as west wind redevelops. This will bump temperatures into the 60s but the increased moisture will help keep RH values in the 15 to 20 percent range across the caprock and near 30 percent over the Rolling Plains. Then a weak cold front will push across the area Friday evening resulting in light northeast wind and cooler temperatures, but with a slightly drier airmass dropping minimum RH values back into the teens. Jordan && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ025-026-031- 032-036>038-042>044. && $$ 99/99/05
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1003 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2018 .DISCUSSION... The evening cirrus shield has thickened up this evening over portions of Lower E TX into SE TX, as well as much of Srn and Cntrl LA, along the Srn branch of the subtropical jet beneath the well-defined shortwave lifting NE across Wrn OK/N TX. Meanwhile, CU and AC cigs continue to spread NNE across N TX and Srn OK this evening ahead of the Srn Plains shortwave, and will begin spreading into SE OK/the Wrn sections of E TX between 06-09Z. In fact, a narrow band of -SHRA along the apex of this shortwave has held together for much of this evening from W TX/Ern TX Panhandle, with the 00Z NAM and latest runs of the HRRR suggesting that this elevated -RA may reach portions of McCurtain County OK and the Wrn sections of E TX shortly before 12Z Friday. Have added slight chance pops late tonight for these areas, although mainly trace amounts of QPF is expected as the air mass continues to saturate from the top down. Have also expanded slight chance pops farther E across the remainder of the region Friday as the remnants of this mid-level shortwave and associated theta-e ridging will linger across the region. Min temps tonight are a tough call, as there is currently quite a range especially in the more protected areas of SE OK/SW AR and portions of E TX. Did lower temps a tad across much of SW AR/N LA/extreme Ern TX where the presence of the sfc ridge will linger overnight, despite the cirrus shield in place. Also bumped up min temps a tad over the Wrn sections of E TX, where SErly winds will persist and the cigs will arrive here in a few hours, thus slowing the temp fall, and may even allow them to warm a bit. Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly. /15/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 521 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2018/ AVIATION... IR Satellite Imagery this evening showing high level moisture in the form of Cirrus across much of our airspace this evening in association with a 60-80kt upper level jet streak lifting out of the southern plains. Below this is an area of 5-8kft moisture advancing north and east across the TX Hill Country which will be making its appearance across our terminal airspace late tonight and through the day Friday. Ceilings should remain VFR with the onset of the lower cloud cover and through much of the day with ceilings likely becoming MVFR just beyond this 24hr TAF cycle. Winds overnight will be light from the south and east with 5-10kts possible across the TYR/GGG and TXK terminal locations with all locations becoming southerly to southeasterly near 10kts areawide on Friday after sunrise. /13/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 37 57 53 62 / 0 20 50 60 MLU 34 59 53 61 / 0 20 40 70 DEQ 31 53 50 59 / 10 20 60 50 TXK 39 56 51 60 / 0 20 50 50 ELD 33 57 52 60 / 0 20 50 50 TYR 44 57 54 62 / 10 20 50 50 GGG 39 57 54 62 / 10 20 50 60 LFK 39 59 55 65 / 10 20 40 70 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 15/13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
904 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2018 ...UPDATE... .DISCUSSION... Narrow band of showers stretching from southwest OK into northern TX continues to track gradually northeast, ahead of a fast moving upper wave. HRRR suggests this activity could hold together into the overnight hours, with a few showers possible mainly across eastern OK. Have made a few minor tweaks to PoPs, otherwise forecast is in good shape. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 45 61 40 60 / 20 0 60 10 FSM 40 55 45 62 / 10 10 80 40 MLC 45 57 46 62 / 20 10 70 30 BVO 44 63 36 60 / 10 0 50 10 FYV 42 54 43 58 / 20 10 90 30 BYV 40 56 41 57 / 10 10 80 30 MKO 42 58 41 59 / 20 10 80 20 MIO 43 61 39 58 / 20 10 60 10 F10 45 60 43 60 / 20 0 60 20 HHW 42 55 47 61 / 20 10 70 50 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...18