Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/21/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
943 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018
Going forecast on target. Latest GOES-16 Satellite imagery
shows lower clouds advancing southeast along the Saskatchewan and
Manitoba border toward northeast North Dakota. Latest surface
observations show decreasing dew point depressions from Harvey and
Rugby through Rolla, on track for the possibility of patchy fog
formation there.
UPDATE Issued at 635 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018
Hi resolution short term models are showing patchy fog and low
clouds forming across parts of the north and east after midnight
tonight. This is sound based on melting from today across the
forecast area, lightening winds, and increasing low level moisture
ahead of the system passing to the south. With mid and high cloud
advancing into the south the chance of fog there is much lower.
Have updated grids to add low clouds and patchy fog, again, north
and east.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1250 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018
Quiet and mild today...cooler tomorrow.
Winds will diminish and shift out of the northeast by tomorrow
morning. This may allow some fog to develop as slightly cooler air
moves into northeast North Dakota and winds develop and upslope
component. The HRRR develops a narrow band of fog and low clouds
across north central and northeast North Dakota tomorrow morning.
With cloudy skies and northeasterly winds, temperatures tomorrow
will be about 10 degrees cooler.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1250 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018
The long term appears quiet for the most part. The latest model
runs push the Tuesday clipper further north and east, leaving most
of North Dakota dry. There still appears to be a storm that will
impact portions of the Northern Plains Friday into Saturday.
Temperatures over the next week should be slightly above normal
through the next week for most locations.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 939 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018
Patchy low clouds and fog are possible at KMOT through KJMS and
east of there after 21/0600z and until 21/1800Z. Patches of IFR
ceilings and visibilities cannot be ruled out. For now have
introduced some fog and low clouds into those two TAFs and will
need to monitor for possible updates for worse than forecast
conditions. Otherwise, at KISN-KDIK-KBIS, VFR with some mid and
high cloud ahead of a significant winter storm to our south.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JPM/TJK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
639 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather is expected through Sunday night with variably
cloudy skies and only an outside chance of a stray sprinkle or
flurry. A storm system will affect the area Monday into Tuesday
with a variety of mixed precipitation and rain, before colder
more seasonal temperatures return by the middle to later
portions of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 635 PM EST Saturday...Only minimal updates this evening
based on cloud cover and associated temperature trends. Still
relatively mild across the region this evening, including 42F at
BTV at 2330Z. A broad west to southwesterly flow persists
between distant low pressure to our north and east and
subtropical high pressure draped across the southeastern
seaboard offshore to near Bermuda. For the overnight period,
we`re still watching a cold front dropping southward from
southern Ontario/Quebec province in association with the
aforementioned low. This is a rather moisture-starved boundary
and with models somewhat bearish on precipitation chances/QPF
I`ve only offered a pre- frontal 20-40 pop for a few snow
showers or sprinkles/flurries through midnight or so across the
north before values begin to wane. The actual front should sink
south into the area in the 100-600 am time frame with winds
trending light northerly to near calm by sunrise Sunday. Low
temperatures mainly in the 20s to locally near 30 south.
By Sunday into Sunday night, the boundary essentially trends
stationary to our immediate south with variable clouds and once
again, perhaps a stray flurry across the north over time. Model-
averaged 925 mb thermal profiles cool by some 3-5C supporting highs
around 30 along the international border and ranging through the 30s
elsewhere. With abundant clouds overnight lows to hold on the mild
side by late January standards and range mainly through the 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM EST Saturday...Warm front will move into the
Northern New York and Vermont area from the southwest late in
the day on Monday and bring some rain or snow to parts of the
area...with a little light mixed precipitation across parts of
northern New York. Temperatures on Monday will reach the 30s,
with some upper 30s in the Saint Lawrence valley and mid 30s in
the Champlain Valley. Temperatures will be nearly steady or even
rising Monday night into Tuesday. By midnight mixed
precipitation should lift north of the area and we will then be
in a dry slot until the very early morning hours on Tuesday.
Rain is expected from 09z-21 Tuesday, with the heaviest totals
across Southern and Eastern Vermont. Most of the precipitation
will be out ahead of the cold front with drier colder air moving
in afterwards. Maximum temperatures on Tuesday should be well
into the 40s, then drop back into the 20s following cold frontal
passage.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 PM EST Saturday...Some snow showers may linger behind
departing cold front into the day on Wednesday, especially
across our Northern zones. We are then expecting dry and cold
weather from Wednesday night through Saturday with high pressure
over the region. Thursday looks to be the coldest day of the
extended period, then warming headed into the weekend. Another
system approaches for next weekend, tracking west of us so will
be another thing to watch as we get closer to next Sun.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Mainly vfr conditions with cigs between
6000 and 9000 feet are prevailing across our taf sites this
evening. Upstream obs and satl show sfc cold front and
associated ribbon of enhanced moisture approaching the Ottawa
Valley and international border area. This boundary will drop
south across our taf sites btwn 02-06z tonight...with lower cigs
to mvfr levels and a few scattered rain/snow showers possible.
RAP sounding at slk supports mvfr becoming ifr cigs btwn 03-04z
tonight and this abundant low level moisture and ifr cigs
continuing into Sunday morning. Otherwise...mainly mvfr cigs
with shifting to the north/northwest...before becoming light on
Sunday.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
FZRA, Slight chance SN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN, Chance FZRA, Chance PL.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely FZRA,
Likely RA, Chance PL.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite RA,
Definite SHRA, Definite FZRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible.
Likely SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...Banacos/JMG
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Taber
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
700 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018
.AVIATION...
Warm front will become increasingly organized to the south of Lower
Michigan this evening before lifting northward into the forecast
area later tonight. Outstanding, synoptic scale forcing will aid in
the development of the boundary and provide what should be a fair
amount of overrunning and isentropic ascent with time. First order
predictor has been extrapolating the timing of the stratus deck that
is now lifting northward through portions of IN and OH. Timing from
earlier forecast has been holding up, expecting MVFR stratus and
some light br/hz by 02Z this evening. First push of 300K isentropic
ascent will arrive over the Detroit terminals after 09Z which should
allow for onset of IFR. Given the lack of deep saturation in the
forecast soundings, especially in ARW and RAP soundings, decision
was to switch weather to drizzle and keep light rain out of the
forecast. High confidence in surface air temperatures above
freezing. Widespread rain is expected to hold off until around
daybreak Monday.
For DTW... VFR will lower to MVFR in stratus during the evening, and
then down to IFR/LIFR in stratus and fog overnight. Temperatures are
expected to be above freezing before the greatest potential for
drizzle develops Sunday morning.
/DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight through Sunday.
* Low confidence in visibilities less than 1/2 mile.
* Low confidence in ceiling heights at or less than 200 feet.
* High for drizzle as precipitation type Sunday morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018
Weak surface gradient flow under nearly zonal flow aloft will lead
to pleasant conditions with light winds and a few high clouds
streaming over Michigan today. High pressure across the southeastern
US will keep the warmer southwesterly flow across southeast
Michigan, though not much of a change compared to yesterday from a
thermal advection standpoint. This will only allow the diurnal
response to increase high temperatures slightly from yesterday into
the low 40s for most of the area with a few locations remaining in
the upper 30s.
Low stratus clouds associated with a plume of moisture pushing
northward in the 925-850 mb layer has been slow to reach Michigan,
but anticipate that it will eventually enter the area by tonight.
The eastern edge of this moisture can be see on satellite moving
over IL/IN this afternoon. This push of moisture will bring with it
some fog potential. How dense the fog becomes remains uncertain, at
least for the early part of tonight, with the higher dewpoints
lagging a bit. Though, conditions will be favorable for some patchy
fog to develop. This warm air advection and surge of theta-e may
allow for some areas of light rain/drizzle to develop by tomorrow
morning across the lower half of Michigan. The warmer guidance with
temperatures remaining at or slightly above freezing overnight into
the early morning hours. This suggests only a small window of
opportunity with little impact expected if any light precipitation
were to occur at locations hovering around the freezing mark before
the diurnal response squashes any lasting frozen precipitation
chances.
Tomorrow will likely be a gloomy day with cloudy and moist
conditions and the potential for fog to stick around as snow melt
continues throughout the day. An increase in rain chances for Sunday
into Sunday night look possible given the weak isentropic ascent and
presence of a frontal boundary stretching eastward from the
developing surface low in the Central Plains. Will need to monitor
precip and temperature trends heading into tomorrow night, mainly in
the northern Thumb and northern parts of the Tri-Cities. Current
forecast lows overnight will be below freezing in the low 30s and
upper 20s. With increased precipitation chances, a small window of
light freezing rain/drizzle will be possible.
A dynamic system will bring categorical PoPs for Monday as a low-mid
level cyclone ejects out of the Central Plains and into the western
Great Lakes by Monday afternoon. The zonal flow will shift to strong
south/southwesterly flow with southeast Michigan residing on the
eastern end of the surface low and in the warm sector. Uncertainty
with the position and timing of the surface cyclone remain with the
GFS a little faster and the ECMWF a little slower. However, rain
chances still remain good Monday afternoon and into the Monday
evening time frame. Transition for rain to a rain/snow mix enters
the forecast late Monday night into Tuesday morning as temps drop
overnight.
Low pressure is expected to be positioned across Lake Huron by 12Z
Tuesday, and will continue to push northeast into Ontario throughout
the afternoon, bringing lingering precipitation chances to southeast
Michigan. The chance for light scattered showers will hold on
throughout the morning hours before cold Canadian air wraps around
the northwest side of the low, bringing the slight chance for a
wintry mix to snow transition throughout the afternoon. Minimal snow
accumulations are expected at this time for the rain that does
transition to snow.
Otherwise, an amplified long-wave trough and associated broad
surface high pressure system will fill in across the eastern U.S.
through the mid to late-week period, bringing an extended period of
dry conditions Wednesday - Friday. Cloud cover is expected to start
to scour out throughout Thursday, bringing periods of sunshine for
both Thursday and Friday as temperatures remain seasonal to slightly
above seasonal. WAA is expected to continue to ramp up into
Saturday, allowing temperatures to potentially peak in the mid to
upper-40s for a high. Saturday, however, will also mark next chance
for likely widespread rain chances as southwesterly brings a warm
front and a surge of moist air to the region, providing enough
forcing and moisture for widespread rain chances.
MARINE...
A weak cold front will settle over the north third of Lake Huron
tonight and stall there during Sunday. This will allow a warm front
to bring mild air in from the Ohio valley over all other marine
areas. The boundaries will merge into a stronger warm front by
Monday as low pressure strengthens over the central Plains and
Midwest. This system will produce widespread coverage of
precipitation, primarily rain from Saginaw Bay southward and a
wintry mix to the north. Increased easterly gradient flow will
result over the north half of Lake Huron, which will be enhanced by
cold air moving in from high pressure centered over Hudson Bay.
Easterly gales will be possible Monday afternoon through Monday
evening and a gale watch is now in effect for this time period. The
wind will weaken and then shift northwest as the low moves across
the lake Tuesday. Northwest wind trailing the system could approach
gales briefly Tuesday night into Wednesday.
HYDROLOGY...
A large low pressure system will bring very mild air into the region
tonight through Monday. This will result in additional melting snow
followed by increasing coverage of rain showers Sunday and then
becoming widespread Monday. The snow will melt but the ground will
not thaw fast enough to prevent runoff from both the snow and
rainfall. This could result in ponding of water on roads and other
prone areas. Creeks and streams around the region could also become
elevated due to runoff. Total rainfall is expected to be around 1
inch between Sunday night and Monday night with most falling during
Monday.
PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
LHZ361>363.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...AA/AM
MARINE.......BT
HYDROLOGY....BT
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
830 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018
...First Widespread Significant 12-18 Hr Snowstorm of This Winter
and it will be Nasty with Near-Blizzard Conds Lingering After the
Snow Ends...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018
All systems cont go for relative extremes of snow and wind here
on the Cntrl Plns...especially beginning Sun afternoon with snow
arriving Hwy 283 and spreading E. Frzg drzl is less certain during
the day Sunday...but it wouldn`t take much to be a major headache
even before the snow starts flying.
Warning and Advisory posted for frzg drzl...heavy snow and wind
that is likely to cause serious disruption of normal activity.
The frzg drzl potential daytime Sun and windy conds lingering into
Mon could make this feel like a longer duration (24-36 hr storm).
Uncertainty: are we far enough SE with the warning? The dry slot
will limit accums S and E of the Tri-Cities...but it looks like
Srn tip of the wrap-around/commahead snow shield will sweep thru
those areas. Do we need a Blizzard Warning?
Blizzard: we came very close to issuing the warning on the day
shift today and it may eventually come to that. This is a major
concern. For now we`re advertising "near blizzard" conds in our
text products and graphics. The night shift will re-evaluate this
potential but we need to coordinate the decision with LBF/GLD.
Snowfall Axis: heaviest from Tri-Cities N and W. We are fcstg at
least 6" from Alma-Hastings-Columbus. 1-5" to the S and E of that
line...7-13" to the N and W.
Snow Algorithm based on blend of model QPFs and snow ratios
offers 8" Grand Island...9" Kearney...10" Cambridge...12"
Lexington...13" Loup City and Ord. Much more is available on snow
potential ranges on our website.
00Z NAM: it`s in line with this thinking and supports our current
warning/advisory config. Am concerned about the 1.5" liquid
equivalent over Greeley county. The 18Z RGEM has that much over
Sherman/Valley counties. That suggests some parts of the warning
area could see more than 13". That is possible.
Snowfall Rate: around 1" per hr in the warning area...especially
Sun night.
Dry slot: it will be a player over the SE 1/3 of the CWA.
Winds: increasing to 25-35 mph with gusts 40-50 mph from 12 AM Mon
to 3 PM Mon.
Drifting: 3 to 5 ft likely.
Impacts: very difficult to impossible travel via land and air.
The heavy snow and extensive drifting will make many rural roads
impassable. Strong winds will lead to blowing snow and near zero
visibility...especially outside cities/towns.
Prepare for cancellations of activities/school. We`re already
seeing cancellations for Sun and this is likely to extend into
Mon.
Snow will result in temporary runway closures at area airports
for plowing ops.
After the snow ends Mon...no walk in the park. Recovery will be
hampered by strong winds gusting 40-50 mph with continued drifting
and brief whiteout conds.
Recommendation: based on all the fcst info we have available...
you should be wherever you can be safe and comfortable for 24 hrs
beginning at 3 PM Sunday. The frzg drzl is a wildcard. If and
where that materializes...it may be best to stay put as early as 6
AM Sun.
Suggest no travel...but if you must...take it slow and have
blankets/water/food and an emergency kit in case an accident
halts travel.
This will be the heaviest snowstorm of the winter thus far.
In cities/towns...be sure to dig out the fire hydrants if needed
after the storm is over.
Please relay snow accum reports to us via social media. Pics with
ruler or tape measure will be especially helpful. Be sure you`re
measuring in an area that is representative of the average (no
drifts). We realize most of this will fall at night...but if
you`re up and can safely do so...reporting when you reach 6" would
be very helpful. Otherwise...we`ll wait for storm total amts once
the snow is over. TUVM!
UPDATE Issued at 534 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018
Areas of dense fog have been added to the fcst S and E of the
Tri-Cities tonight into tomorrow...and fog will probably last into
the afternoon S of I-80. A blend of the HRRR and LAMP vsby
guidance are rarely wrong...and they are hitting the fog
possibility hard. The environment is favorable with stratus
lingering HJH/BIE/LNK etc and temps should easily radiate past
peak afternoon dwpts which are relatively moist.
Given skies will become OVC tonight...will probably raise low
temps to the consensus of model 2m temps later on this shift. Want
to wait and see how this stratus evolves this eve.
Will have much more this eve on latest model runs and other misc
thoughts.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018
The approaching winter storm is, of course, the focus for the short
term. The main snowband still looks focused just northwest of the
tri-cities. For the past day or so, however, a secondary band is
advertised by the NAM to develop just east of the tri-cities.
However, the trends are farther east with this band, and it might
very well not wind up being an issue for our CWA. Trends are toward
a slower departure for the snow, and if anything, this will likely
mean higher snow amounts for some in the main band, and a better
chance for poor visibility with the wind gusts still expected to
frequently reach near 45 to 50mph Monday morning.
As for freezing drizzle potential, it continues to look like a
distinct aggravation before the big storm hits as most of us will
lie on the cold side of a surface front that stalled to the south. I
backed up the warning time late tonight and added several counties
to include this freezing drizzle potential and converted the rest
of the watch to winter weather advisory starting at 09Z. Our far
south should be warm enough where we will not have to worry so
much about drizzle freezing, which makes things a bit more
complicated.
Overall, I increased amounts with the main snow band in our
northwest and tightened up the gradient on the southeast side.
Part of the advisory area could conceivably need upgraded if wind
causes a bigger issue with snow, but I needed convert the watch
because of the expected winter precip starting tonight with the
freezing drizzle.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018
There is still high confidence that a heavy snow producer in the
works for Sunday night into Monday morning as agreement is firm.
Although trends were edging the main snow band northwest on the
previous runs, the track wobbled a bit farther southeast again.
The 700 mb track still favors the heavy band in our northwest.
Divergent Q vectors in the 500-300 mb level still indicate an
overall increase in large scale lift Sunday evening.
Monday morning winds will be strong and this has been a consistent
forecast. We could be pushing blizzard in our west, but this can
be upgraded if it looks worse than it does now.,
Let the rest of the extended forecast ride for the most part as
most attention was this upcoming winter storm.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday)
Issued at 534 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018
Significant Wx: IFR fog/patchy -FZDZ then accumulating IFR snow.
Tonight: VFR to start but IFR stratus CIGs will invade with
greatest chance of dropping vsby at GRI. Pockets of -FZDZ develop
toward dawn. NE winds 7-11 kts. Confidence: Medium
Sun: IFR CIGs in stratus/fog with pockets of -FZDZ. -FZDZ ends as
-SN moves in from the W...first at EAR then at GRI in the 20Z-21Z
timeframe. Plowing/de-icing will be necessary. NE winds increase
to 15-25 kts. Confidence: High
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to noon CST Monday for
NEZ049-063-064-075>077-084>086.
Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM Sunday to noon CST Monday for
NEZ039>041-046>048-060>062-072>074-082-083.
KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to noon CST Monday for
KSZ005-006-017.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kelley
SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Kelley
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
617 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 220 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018
In the short term, low-level cloud cover that was widespread
across the area this morning and early afternoon has been mixing
out from west to east across the area. Behind the clearing, sunny
skies have been prevailed allowing temperatures to climb into the
upper 50s in central Kansas and low 60s in south central and
southeast Kansas.
Overnight tonight, low level moisture will once again make its way
into central Kansas and along the Flint Hills and could
potentially saturate the air enough to produce some patchy
drizzle. The biggest uncertainty surrounds exactly how low
temperatures are expected to drop to coincide with this low-level
moisture in central KS. ECMWF, SREF, Canadian, and NAM indicate
that areas of patchy freezing drizzle are possible with temps
dropping to the freezing mark or slightly below, while the HRRR
and GFS are less agressive with the push of cold air advection
into the northwest corner of the CWA. Therefore, not ruling out a
few areas of isolated patchy freezing drizzle in Central Kansas
tonight and into early Sunday, but ice accumulations and travel
impacts should be minimal.
The focus of the forecast will then shift to the impressive upper
level trough currently situated over the southwestern U.S. This
system is expected to strengthen and push a surface low over Kansas
through the day on Sunday night into Monday. Though it is expected
to bring some significant winter weather to portions of western
Kansas and Nebraska, a wedge of dry air that will be situated over
much of the forecast area should prevent the bulk of the CWA from
receiving significant impacts from the system while keeping most
snowfall further to our north. With that being said, current
thinking is that areas of central and eastern Kansas could see up to
1-2 inches of snow locally Sunday night-Monday.
Additionally, with a very tight pressure gradient force in the wake
of the shortwave on Monday, northwest winds will be quite high with
gusts up to 45mph possible in central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018
Following the frontal passage, an upper level ridge will dominate
the synoptic pattern through much of next week before the next
shortwave begins approaching the region next weekend. Temperatures
are expected to cool back down heading into Monday, though will
be around normal for the time of year with highs in the mid 40s.
Another gradual warming trend will then continue through Friday of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 607 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018
Aviation concerns will be low clouds and fog.
Water vapor imagery shows potent shortwave tracking across the
desert southwest with surface low pressure continuing to deepen
over eastern CO. As moisture continues to stream north, a
strong stationary front will setup tonight from northeast KS into
sw KS. Surface low will be on the move Sun and will track from the
OK Panhandle into eastern KS by early Sun evening. Low ceilings
are expected as the front slowly sinks south tonight which should
bring some IFR conditions to KRSL-KGBD and possibly KSLN. Not out
of the question to also see some visibilities in the 3-4sm range
with these lower cigs. KCNU may also see some low ceilings
overnight as moisture continues to pump into the region. Areas
west of I-135 will maintain best chance for low ceilings during
the day Sun as colder air continues to spill south behind the
departing low.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018
Very high grassland fire danger is expected across nearly all
portions of central, south central, and southeast Kansas on
Monday. Strong winds out of the north/northeast with sustained
speeds around 35mph and gusts near 45mph are possible. Very high
grassland fire danger will also be present in central and south
central Kansas on Thursday and Friday of next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 43 59 32 44 / 10 20 20 20
Hutchinson 38 55 31 42 / 10 20 30 30
Newton 42 55 31 40 / 10 30 30 40
ElDorado 45 59 32 41 / 10 30 20 30
Winfield-KWLD 47 62 33 45 / 10 20 10 10
Russell 32 43 29 41 / 20 40 70 40
Great Bend 33 46 30 43 / 10 30 60 30
Salina 36 50 31 40 / 20 40 40 50
McPherson 38 53 31 41 / 20 30 40 40
Coffeyville 50 65 36 45 / 10 40 30 10
Chanute 47 62 34 42 / 20 40 40 20
Iola 46 61 34 41 / 20 40 50 30
Parsons-KPPF 49 63 35 43 / 10 40 40 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...TAV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
633 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018
Mild and moist air will continue to spread over the area through
Sunday. Expect highs from the upper 30s to to mid 40s, and around
50 Monday. Areas of fog are drizzle are expected to develop tonight,
and persist through Sunday. Rain is then expected to develop
Sunday night and continue into Monday. Some flooding is possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018
Mild and moist air will continue to spread north over snow covered
ground. Areas of fog and drizzle are expected to develop tonight
as these conditions persist. For now, have not mentioned dense
fog; however, concern for the ability of increasing moisture over
snow cover to produce dense fog. Lows tonight will be much above
normal around or just above freezing. Highs should top 40 Sunday
with the foggy conditions continuing.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018
Multiple concerns will unfold early this upcoming week beyond the
onset, density and duration of fog. An upper level system with
favorable dynamics will move across the forecast area and bring a
good chance for heavy rain, especially over northwest areas.
Given the likelihood of melting snow over frozen ground to enhance
flood potential, have issued an Hydrologic Outlook. Please see
this outlook and the Hydrology section below for more
information. Rain should mix with snow and possibly change over to
snow late Monday night and early Tuesday. At this time, travel
issues Tuesday morning appear marginal; however, light snow
accumulations with temps falling below freezing could cause
elevated travel concerns. Otherwise, temperatures will not be
nearly as cold as after the past several cold fronts; highs
Wednesday should be around freezing, and then rise much above
normal into the 40s by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 633 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018
Conditions will continue to deteriorate through the overnight as
warm/moist air convergence increases. Model guidance in good
agreement on LIFR conditions by morning but still some differences
on how fast lower cigs/vis arrive. Latest obs suggest surface
saturation still struggling a bit and latest RAP and HRRR are
catching on to this trend and suggest IFR will not arrive until
after midnight with LIFR potentially holding off until 12Z. Some
improvement possible at times during the day tomorrow given
modest wind and lack of good snowpack but confidence in timing and
degree of improvement are too low to include at this range.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Snowmelt with snow water equivalent near 1 inch across northwest
CWA along with forecast rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.25 inches early
next week will result in increased runoff/increased streamflow.
Lesser rainfall amounts (0.50-0.75 inches) in the Maumee/Wabash
River Basins, along with lesser antecedent snow water equivalent
values, will lessen response in these basins. Caveat will be ice jam
formation potential that brings all basins onto a similar plain with
respect to flooding potential. Heightened awareness for potential
highlighted in latest hydrologic outlook/ESF and sitrep to core
partners/media.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Skipper
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...AGD
HYDROLOGY...Murphy
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
957 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will drift across the southeastern United States
through tonight, then offshore on Sunday. A cold front will approach
from the west Monday, and cross central NC on Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH Sunday/...
As of 1000 PM Saturday...
As high pressure settles in over central NC, the forecast problem of
the night will be what influence does the remaining snow pack have
on the formation of fog overnight. While earlier simulations of most
notably the SREF, and WRF ARW showed a strong signal for fog during
the early morning hours on Sunday, the 21z run of the SREF has
backed off considerably. The 00z sounding at GSO shows a lot of dry
air in the low levels and METAR observations in many places showing
large dewpoint depressions. If there was to be fog overnight, the
most favored location would be an area south of the Triad into the
southwest Piedmont and east to the Sandhills. The biggest problem
with this location getting fog is that temperatures could be below
freezing in some locations when this happens, leading to a brief
freezing fog episode. Looking at persistence, fog did not occur last
night with a larger snow pack in place, but the more ideal location
of the surface high for radiational cooling could counteract the
smaller snow pack. Winds, while calm in some locations are stirring
at times to upwards of 5 knots which could also keep temperatures up
a bit. The upshot is a low confidence nuisance event at best with
very little to no impact. Overnight lows will bottom out in the low
to mid 30s.
Any potential fog will dissipate after sunrise. Some mid level
clouds are possible Sunday afternoon as temperatures rise into the
low to middle 60s and obliterate any snow left on the ground.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...
May see a better potential for areas of fog late Sunday night into
early Monday morning, primarily across the Piedmont, though
increasing high cloudiness may inhibit fog development in vicinity
of the Yadkin/Pee Dee river valley. Min temps mostly in the mid 30s.
Monday, a deep cyclone over central Plains will slowly lift into and
across the Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday. Swly low level flow
will continue to pull warm air into the Carolinas. This warm air
coupled with ample sunshine will push temperatures well into the 60s
along and east of highway 1. Thickening cloud coverage over the west
will inhibit sunshine to result in cooler temps, holding the nw
Piedmont in the upper 50s to around 60. At this time, expect bulk of
the showers to hold off until after sunset, though a stray shower or
two cannot be ruled out in vicinity of Winston-Salem by late
afternoon.
The trailing sfc cold front associated with the deep cyclone will
approach from the west Monday evening, and cross our region early
Tuesday. Thickening clouds and steady sly flow will likely maintain
mild conditions Monday night with some places likely not dropping
much below 55 degrees. Better support aloft over the NW Piedmont
suggest better shower coverage in this region, with support waning
farther to the south and east. Currently not expecting abundant
rainfall with this system as forcing not overly impressive. Rainfall
totals will likely vary from less than a half inch NW to under a
quarter of an inch SE. Morning clouds and scattered showers Tuesday
morning will giveway to increasingly sunny skies. 850mb front does
not cross region until the afternoon, so we should have time to warm
before low level cold air advection commences late in the day. This
required an adjustment up in high temperatures Tuesday. Currently
expect max temps Tuesday to be in the 60-65 degree range.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 212 PM Saturday...
Tuesday night and beyond: Quiet weather with near to above
seasonal temperatures are expected into early Saturday. The
upper air pattern Tuesday night features a departing short wave
trough aloft and cold front. A period of short- lived strong
cold advection Tuesday night results in clearing skies and
temperatures that fall to near normal in the upper 20s to lower
30s. Weak short-wave ridging develops on Wednesday and
temperatures reach he mid to possibly upper 50s. A short-wave
trough and an associated cold front with very little moisture
swings across the region late Wednesday/early Thursday. Skies
will remain mainly clear with limited sensible weather impacts.
Ridging aloft with increasing heights build into the area for
Thursday into early Saturday. Skies will remain generally clear
with moderating temperatures. Highs on Thursday will range in
the lower to mid 50s, in the mid to upper 50s on Friday and in
the mid 50s to lower 60s on Saturday.
A higher amplitude trough that moves onto the Pacific coast on
Thursday reaches the central Plains by Saturday night. Deep
layer southerly flow transports moisture northward from the Gulf
and Pacific as a surface wave develops in the mid-Mississippi
Valley. Both the 12Z operational GFS and EC have trended slower
with the precipitation arrival in our region, especially with the
precipitation spreading northward across GA and the Carolinas
as the surface high is slower to depart. Will keep PoPs confined
to the Saturday night period for now. -Blaes
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 700 PM Saturday...
24 Hour TAF Period: A lot of discrepancy in the short term models
over the extend of fog during the early morning hours on Sunday
morning. The fog in the models appears to be related to the left
over snow pack over the Triad and as far east as RDU. Models are
split on the effects of the leftover snow on visibility and the SREF
points to a fairly extensive fog event where as other short term
models such as the HRRR are keeping visibilities at VFR levels. Have
decided to go with IFR visibilities after 6z in the Triad and after
9z at KRDU. Any fog will rebound to VFR after sunrise. Some mid
level clouds can be expected on Sunday especially later in the day
as RH cross sections point to a lot of moisture in the 4-6 KFT
range. No precipitation is expected and winds should remain light
and variable as surface high pressure remains in control of the
pattern.
Long Term: After another bout of possible fog early Monday morning,
VFR conditions are expected through Monday night before a weak
frontal system approaches the area by Tuesday morning. Sub-VFR
conditions can be expected through Tuesday evening before a return
to VFR on Wednesday.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...Ellis
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...Ellis
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
852 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure just south of the area tonight will drift east and
offshore on Sunday allowing for a continued warm west to
southwest flow across the region into Monday. A strong cold
front approaches from the west Monday before crossing the area
Monday night into early Tuesday. High pressure then follows the
front resulting in colder temperatures on gusty northwest winds
into midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 845 PM EST Saturday...
A much milder night ahead than many seen over the past week with
the combination of higher dewpoints/mixing in conjunction with
a warming airmass to keep lows mostly above freezing outside of
the deepest valleys. Otherwise still seeing some low clouds
invading the far west associated with return flow along a weak
boundary heading back north. Despite very dry air aloft, expect
some of this cloudiness may sneak east of the mountains per
moisture advection, as should also see the downsloping 85h jet
weaken overnight. Thus appears skies likely to remain mostly
cloudy west with low clouds filling in under the inversion, and
clear to partly cloudy east. Nam continues to produce light
rainfall over the far west as well overnight but given only a
shallow layer of moisture aloft off evening soundings appears
too wet. Latest HRRR does have some spotty rain or sprinkles
northwest late under the continued westerly flow convergence so
left in some low pops very late and removed elsewhere. Fog still
looks iffy but kept in far south where dewpoints remain the
highest over spotty snow cover. Lows look to be mainly in the
30s with some 20s deepest valleys. However if winds stay up just
a little and clouds head farther east, then likely to see some
spots stay in the 40s all night.
Previous discussion as of 309 PM EST Saturday...
Arctic high pressure across our region will slowly drift east
tonight and push off the North Carolina coast Sunday. Ahead of low
pressure in the central United State, moisture was tracking
northeast from the Gulf. Lower clouds associated with this moisture
were pushing into western portions of our forecast area. A few
showers are possible in the west tonight as a warm front lifts north
through the region. With light winds and low level moisture, decided
to add some patchy fog to southern portions of the forecast area.
Overnight low temperatures will range from around 30 degrees with
snowpack to near 40 degrees along the ridges.
The closed upper low over the Midwest will open up and moves into
New England early next week. High pressure will push out into the
Atlantic ocean Sunday resulting in a warm southwest flow. Isolated
to scattered showers are possible in the northwest Sunday morning.
High temperatures on Sunday will vary from the upper 40s in the
mountains to the lower 60s in the piedmont.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 309 PM EST Saturday...
Warm front lifts north Sunday night into Monday with warm advection
and southwest flow increasing. Will see some sun in the east Monday
though cloudiness will move in aloft quickly ahead of the front.
Models overall still advertising a line of showers, low topped with
limited instability. Shear is high and shallow convection seems
likely where winds aloft gust to the surface along the line of
showers. At the moment SPC has not threat of severe, but cannot rule
out some strong winds Monday evening/overnight, mainly southwest
over the NC mountains/foothills.
Will see area of showers lift out by midday Tuesday with lingering
rain showers in the west. Colder air arrives Tuesday afternoon in
the mountains with a few snow showers possible but moisture appears
to dry out fast.
Expect post-front winds Tuesday to possibly reach advisory levels
along the Blue Ridge with 8h jet of 40-50kts and 4-6mb 6 hr pressure
rises. Cloudiness may inhibit some of the stronger gusts. These
winds along with potential gusty winds with showers will be
mentioned in the HWO.
Temperatures in the 50s to around 60 Monday cool to the 40s Tuesday
in the mountains with falling temps over the higher terrain.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM EST Saturday...
Overall pattern stays progressive with shortwave moving across
midweek with limited moist, with brief cool down, but still close to
normal temps for late January.
5h heights build late in the week while, strong trough shifts into
the western U.S. As this strong trough moves into the middle of the
country Saturday, southwest flow increases over us with moisture
shifting toward our area. Surface high should be off the mid-
Atlantic coast, but in-situ type wedge seems to set up allowing for
potential of wintry mix during Saturday although at the moment will
carry mainly rain, mixed at times with snow, and overall looks like
Sat night-Sunday are wetter with wedge breaking.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 610 PM EST Saturday...
SCT to BKN MVFR clouds in the western mountains will spread east
to the Blue Ridge this evening and perhaps east of the mountains
tonight. This should result in periods of VFR to MVFR cigs at
times from KBLF/KLWB east to KBCB, including at least scattered
at KROA, and perhaps KLYH. As moisture increases, expect to see
cigs lower further around KBLF overnight with IFR- LIFR cigs
possible late tonight into Sunday morning.
Visibilities are expected to be mostly VFR through the TAF valid
period. However, if the ceilings drops below 005 at KBLF, MVFR
visibilities in fog/mist will be possible. MVFR conditions may
continue in the west Sunday, while VFR is expected in the east.
Westerly winds at 10-20 kts mountains, and around 10 kts out
east will diminish to less than 10 kts across most of the
mountains, while becoming mainly light east of the Blue Ridge.
However a few gusts may linger across the higher ridges as the
jet aloft remains strong until late tonight. This may also
result in areas of LLWS especially At KROA and KBCB this evening
as surface winds decrease.
Best axis of low level moisture will reside over the western
sections on Sunday as decent westerly flow continues. Some of
this may keep sub-VFR cigs going into mid or late morning west
of the Blue Ridge with at least scattered low clouds out east
into the afternoon. However moisture pinned in against the
mountains may keep KBLF/KLWB MVFR at times well into the
afternoon. Isolated showers may also track in from the west
across far northwest sections on Sunday, but since iffy and
mainly west of KLWB wont include mention.
West winds should be much lighter on Sunday with speeds of 5-15
kts before backing southwest during the afternoon.
Low confidence in ceilings, with medium confidence in visibilities
and winds through the TAF valid period.
Extended Discussion...
Sub-VFR conditions will likely redevelop at least across the
mountain locations Sunday night and across the entire area
Monday afternoon into Monday night as a cold front and its
associated precipitation approaches/arrives. Strong convective
showers are expected with this front, including a potential
QLCS and isolated thunderstorms. Should see a return to VFR east
of the mountains by Tuesday afternoon with lingering upslope
driven MVFR cigs across the western mountains into Tuesday
night.
Very gusty northwest winds return to the area as well Tuesday
night into Wednesday on the backside of the departing system.
Snow showers could also bring periods of sub-VFR vsbys Tuesday
afternoon and night across the SE West Virginia sites thanks to
strong upslope flow and residual low level moisture. High
pressure should build in resulting in drier weather and
diminishing winds on Thursday.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
As of 325 PM EST Friday...
NOAA Weather Radio, WXL60 (Roanoke Transmitter) which
broadcasts at 162.475 MHz remains off the air. The phone company
reported that the circuit line had been cut and will take until
Monday January 22nd to fix it.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KK
EQUIPMENT...WP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
956 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018
.UPDATE...
To carry fog and drizzle beyond daybreak until mid morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Cloudy and mild for a nice change with upper 50s East to low and
mid 60s for much of the area. Southerly winds have the Gulf air
working North with dew points on the rise. KSHV Radar is showing
some light showers over portions of LA from Toledo Bend country to
Natchitoches and near Ruston and Monroe. The HRRR is showing this
moving Eastward with some new development around 09Z in parts of
East Texas. New guidance also suggest fog and drizzle issues
through about 15Z. The new model runs have changed little and are
showing Thunderstorms beginning to line up and enter the cwa by
around 21Z and then moving East over all for the most part by
22/12Z. No other changes needed at this time. /24/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 444 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018/
AVIATION...
Currently dealing with a mixture of MVFR/VFR ceilings across our
airspace ranging from 15hdft to 6kft. Those terminals with VFR
ceilings should quickly drop to MVFR conditions and all terminals
will likely become IFR during the overnight hours as well. Cannot
rule out some patchy drizzle or light showers overnight through
the early morning hours on Sunday which would allow for reduced
VSBYS and LIFR ceilings but that should temporary and thus while
TEMPO groups were added for the possibility of the reduced VSBYS
overnight into Friday, did not bring ceilings below IFR
conditions. If there is any improvement ceiling wise on Sunday it
won`t be much but did allow ceilings to climb back into the MVFR
category but just barely. Also introduced the mention of VCSH for
our western terminal locations only Sunday Aftn. Convection ahead
of an approaching trough of low pressure will likely begin
affecting our terminal locations just beyond this TAF cycle.
S to SSE winds overnight ranging from 6-12kts will increase on
Sunday, especially across our NE TX terminal locations where gusts
could approach 25kts at times.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018/
DISCUSSION...
A weak upper trough remains situated over Southeast Louisiana and
Southwest Mississippi. Increasing low level southerly flow has
allowed Gulf moisture to surge northward, and the weak trough has
provided just enough ascent for some widely scattered showers
today. A few lingering showers will remain possible through the
evening and overnight hours. Patchy drizzle and fog is likely
across much of the area tonight as low level moisture continues to
increase.
During the day Sunday, the surface pressure gradient will increase
ahead of a strong surface trough. Sustained wind speeds above 15
kts, with gusts near 25 kts, are expected across portions of
Northeast Texas. Later shifts will probably need to issue a Lake
Wind Advisory, but I held off with this forecast package as some
uncertainty remains regarding the exact areas that will need it.
Typically, with such strong southerly flow, warm air advection and
compressional warming ahead of a strong surface trough and cold
front will result in very warm temperatures. While daytime
temperatures should warm near or above 70 degrees F in most
locations, I lowered the high temperature forecast just a bit as
thick cloud cover and drizzle/developing showers should keep the
warming in check.
By late Sunday morning, convection is expected to develop just
west of the area across Texas and Southern Oklahoma ahead of an
advancing dryline. A strong upper trough will emerge onto the High
Plains of Eastern Colorado and Western Kansas by Sunday evening
and will eject the entire system northeast overnight Sunday and
into Monday morning. The dryline and the strongest convection
should affect our area late Sunday afternoon and into mid morning
Monday. Despite only meager instability, shear profiles are
sufficient to support at least a marginal severe weather threat.
Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes should be the primary
threats. Storm mode will likely be linear after sunset Sunday. If
temperatures are warmer than currently anticipated, this will lead
to greater instability and an increased threat for severe weather.
As the system ejects Sunday night, a Pacific cold front will
quickly overtake the dryline and the convective complex should
surge eastward Monday morning, finally exiting the area by 15z
Monday morning.
Much of the remainder of the work week should be relatively quiet
as a surface high pressure settles overhead. For Tuesday through
Thursday, daytime temperatures will likely be near 60 degrees F,
and overnight lows will be near or below freezing mainly along and
north of the U.S. Highway 82 corridor. By Friday, low level
southerly flow returns bringing Gulf moisture back to the region
just in time for the next major upper trough and cold front to
move across the Central U.S. More wet weather will be possible
heading into next weekend.
CN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 59 71 50 60 / 20 40 80 10
MLU 54 73 56 63 / 20 30 80 30
DEQ 57 68 43 56 / 20 70 80 10
TXK 58 70 46 58 / 20 50 80 10
ELD 57 71 49 59 / 20 30 80 10
TYR 59 70 44 59 / 20 70 80 0
GGG 58 71 46 60 / 20 60 80 0
LFK 60 73 50 61 / 20 50 80 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
24//13/09