Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/19/18

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
837 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018 .UPDATE... Made a few adjustments to the ongoing forecast to account for observed trends in cloud cover and temperatures. Satellite data shows a few areas of cloud cover. The first is the cloud deck which was over much of the area around 00Z. This cloud deck is advecting eastward for the most part. This will enable much of the region tonight to see mostly clear or partly cloudy skies for the majority of the night. The second area is a deck of high cloud cover, streaming in from the northwest. The third area observed on satellite and radar, is a disturbance moving through the upper level trough. This disturbance is located near Austin at 02Z, and will continue to move slowly northeast and east overnight. A few observation sites in Central Texas have reported brief light rain, so a few light showers are possible across our far southern areas, especially Bell, Milam, Robertson and Leon Counties. However, the extremely dry air at the surface will likely keep widespread rain from ever reaching the ground. Have therefore kept out the mention of rain in the forecast update, yet it does remain a low possibility. Fox && .AVIATION... /Issued 529 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/ /00z TAFs/ A VFR cloud deck remains in place over all TAF sites this evening, but will move east of DFW Metroplex sites in the next couple of hours. Meanwhile, a swath of MVFR stratus continues to surge northward through the Texas Hill Country which will pivot northeastward overnight. This may result in a couple hours of MVFR cigs at Waco around daybreak, but expect most cigs to remain VFR around 3-4 kft. Otherwise, south winds will be on the increase at 10-20 kts throughout much of Friday. Towards the end of the TAF period (late Friday afternoon or evening), cigs around 2-3 kft should begin overspreading all TAF sites; MVFR conditions are likely thereafter. -Stalley && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 347 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/ /Tonight through sunrise Friday/ Main weather concern during the short term time period will be the areal coverage of cloud cover and its impact on overnight low temperatures. Otherwise, tranquil conditions are anticipated. Satellite and surface observations this afternoon indicate that the initial surge of shallow, low level moisture continues to stream northward. This moisture appears to be centered around 850-925mb as evidenced in RAP soundings across the area. Flow within and just below this layer will increase this evening and into the overnight hours in response to pressure/height falls across the upper midwest. The increase in low level flow coupled with an increase in low level moisture should lead to "warmer" overnight conditions with most areas falling into the 20s and 30s areawide. A few of the sheltered/low lying areas may fall into the upper teens, however. The low level flow will also help to transport additional moisture and stratus northward. While there is some uncertainty in the northern extent of the cloud shield, it looks like a guarantee for mostly cloudy skies down across eastern and southeastern zones. As a result, I`ve kept temperatures a little higher across this part of the FA with readings near or just above freezing. The breezy conditions just above the surface should mitigate any potential for fog, but if moisture deepens enough, there may be a few sprinkles or drizzle. For now, this threat is too low to include in the forecast. 24-Bain && .LONG TERM... /Issued 347 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/ /Friday through Thursday/ Friday morning will start out considerably warmer than the previous few mornings with most areas near freezing, but southerly winds well established. Cloud cover that has spread over the region this afternoon will thin some overnight, although thicker low cloud cover associated with a slug of deeper moisture will spread north overnight primarily affecting the southeast counties. This is likely to persist through the day Friday and will hamper a more significant warmup across the eastern and southern parts of the CWA. Highs on Friday are likely to remain in the upper 40s and lower 50s across the southeast tomorrow while areas farther north and west warm into the lower 60s. The increase in moisture atop some already cool air in place will likely result in some areas of light rain or drizzle late Friday night into Saturday morning, especially east of I-35. By Saturday, a strong upper trough will dig into the southwest U.S. resulting in surface pressure falls across much of the Central Plains. Southerly winds will increase in response and continue to transport moisture northward. A few areas of light rain or showers may develop mainly east of I-35 where we`ll have 20% PoPs. Strong southwest winds above the surface will aide in warming with highs expected to climb into the 60s and lower 70s. The extensive low clouds will also be accompanied by very low rain chances overnight Saturday night. By Sunday, as the upper trough ejects into the Central Plains, a Pacific front/dryline will advance eastward into North Texas. Low level flow will veer rather quickly during the late morning hours. Despite strong forcing for ascent spreading across the region, the veering flow and relatively weak lapse rates will result in little instability across North Texas. Showers and a few thunderstorms may develop by midday into early afternoon mainly east of I-35. We`ll have PoPs at 50-70% for areas mainly east of I-35 Sunday afternoon. The lack of instability and quickly veering flow should result in a relatively low severe weather threat. Any precipitation should quickly end from west to east Sunday evening. After the passage of the front, we should enter a period of relatively quiet weather next week with high pressure settling in through mid week and temperatures just slightly above normal. We`ll be watching another strong upper trough dig into the western U.S. toward the end of next week which could bring additional rain chances to the region. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 32 57 47 68 55 / 0 0 10 5 20 Waco 29 54 45 70 55 / 0 0 20 10 20 Paris 26 53 43 65 54 / 0 0 20 20 20 Denton 27 59 46 69 54 / 0 0 5 5 10 McKinney 25 55 45 68 54 / 0 0 20 10 20 Dallas 32 57 49 68 56 / 0 0 20 10 20 Terrell 28 53 47 68 54 / 0 0 20 20 20 Corsicana 28 51 48 68 55 / 0 0 20 20 20 Temple 29 52 46 70 54 / 10 5 20 10 20 Mineral Wells 27 63 43 72 51 / 0 0 0 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 14/26
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
921 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018 .UPDATE... Updated for stratus and slightly warmer overnight lows, along and east of a San Angelo to Sonora line. Short range models bring stratus northwest overnight affecting areas as far west and northwest as Sonora and San Angelo by morning. Low level moisture is very shallow, however, and clouds should break up quickly mid morning. && .SHORT TERM... (time period) .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 551 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/ AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ Short range models including the GLAMP25 and HRRR seem to have the best handle current placement of low level moisture and clouds, advecting them northward back Sonora, Junction, and San Angelo after midnight, with clearing midmorning. Kept KJCT in MVFR ceilings overnight, although models suggests ceilings may temporarily rise above 3000 FT later this evening, before falling back to MVFR after midnight. Otherwise south winds may gust over 20 KTS at KABI and KSJT by noon Friday as lee trough develops. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 242 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/ LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) The main weather concern is with the heightened fire weather potential for Sunday. Weak upper ridging over Texas Friday night will be followed by southwest flow aloft Saturday and Saturday night, as a strong upper trough moves east across the western CONUS and into the Rockies. With an increase in south winds, lows Friday night will not be as cold (in the 35-40 degree range). With lee surface trough to our west and increased surface pressure gradient, breezy south-southwest winds are expected Saturday and Saturday night. Temperatures will be well-above normal Saturday with highs in the 70-75 degree range across most of our area, with upper 60s/near 70 along the I-10 corridor where some morning low cloud cover is expected. With the aforementioned upper trough, a closed low is progged to develop, and move from the Colorado/New Mexico border northeast into Kansas on Sunday. Marginally sufficient moisture return will support a slight chance of showers across the area east of a Brownwood to Junction line Sunday morning, with the approach of a Pacific front/dryline. The Pacific front/dryline will advance east of our area by midday or early Sunday afternoon, ending any rain chances. Increased and gusty west winds will follow its passage and continue through late Sunday afternoon. The combination of these winds with above normal temperatures (in the mid/upper 60s for much of our area), and an intrusion of very dry air is expected to result in elevated to critical fire weather conditions. The main area of concern will be across the area along/north of a Sterling City to Brownwood line, in the Noon to 6 PM time frame on Sunday. We will continue to monitor, as model changes in the track, timing and strength of this system will affect where the heightened fire weather potential will be. Temperatures will be a little cooler and closer to normal on Monday. The forecast looks dry Tuesday into Thursday of next week across our area. Lows are expected to be in the upper 20s to lower 30s Tuesday, mostly in the lower 30s Wednesday, and in the mid to upper 30s Thursday. Highs are expected to be generally in the 60-65 degree range across much of our area during that time. 19 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 31 62 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 30 62 37 75 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 35 59 38 72 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 31 62 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 28 63 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 29 57 35 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 04/99