Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/10/17

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
945 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Snow will taper off this evening as the coastal storm moves away from the region. In the wake of this storm, lake effect snow will develop and impact portions of the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley Sunday and Sunday night. Fair weather is expected for Monday with a light to moderate snowfall possible for Monday night and Tuesday as another system approaches from the west. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 945 PM EST...A large upper level trough continues to dig eastward across Ohio Valley and into the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. At the surface, an extensive frontal boundary is situated just off the eastern seaboard with a wave of low pressure moving up the front. The low pressure area is now located off the coast of Cape Cod and continues to track northeast as it rapidly deepens. Meanwhile, steady snowfall is still ongoing across the Taconics and western New England, with some additional lighter areas of snow across the Capital Region and mid-Hudson Valley. There still is some moderate snowfall over the central Taconics and the Berkshires thanks to a mesoscale band that developed due to some mid-level frontogenesis. Snowfall rates may locally exceed one half inch per hour under this band, but the heaviest snowfall should be weakening and exiting eastward over the next hour or two, as shown in the latest 3km HRRR and NAM. Winter Weather Advisory continues across eastern zones, with storm totals amounts of 3 to 7 inches expected in total for these areas. The snow will continue to tapering off this evening from west to east, with eastern areas ending by around 04z-06z. Until then, slippery travel conditions can be expected, especially on untreated surfaces and secondary roadways. Lake enhanced snow off of lake Ontario will develop late tonight as the low level flow becomes favorable. Initially, any lake effect looks rather fragmented and cellular, with activity becoming more concentrated during the day on Sunday. Elsewhere, it will just be partly to mostly cloudy with seasonably chilly temperatures. Expecting lows from the upper teens to mid 20s, with the coldest temps across the higher elevations. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The Winter Weather Advisory for lake effect snow remains in Sunday and Sunday night for northern Herkimer and western Hamilton counties. Another round of lake effect/enhanced snow off of lakes Ontario and Erie in the wake of the coastal storm. The snow off of Ontario is expected to impact mainly the western Adirondacks Sunday and shift southward and diminish Sunday night. Some snow off of Erie is expected to reach our local, the western Mohawk Valley, during day. Snowfall of 2 to 6 inches is expected across the advisory area with the higher amounts across northern Herkimer. Snowfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the western Mohawk Valley. Will have a brief lull in the precipitation Monday after the lake effect diminishes and before a widespread snowfall overspreads the area as high pressure slides across the region. Another northern stream system will impact the region, this time the storm will approaches from the Great Lakes region. Isentropic lift ahead of the system as its warm front approaches will result is precipitation overspreading the area from west to east and it will be cold enough for snow with a light accumulation expected at this time. Temperatures will be seasonable cold. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Longwave trough will continue to be located over the Great Lakes and northeastern United States through the entire long term period, which will allow for continued below normal temperatures. Although there won`t be any high precipitation events through the period, fast moving northern stream systems will bring a few chances of light precipitation in the form of snow through the week. At the start of the period, low pressure will be moving across the eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday. This low pressure area will be reforming off the coast of New England by Tuesday evening before it rapidly deepens as it exits northeast into the Canadian Maritimes. The latest trends in the models have shifted this storm track further north from previous runs. Based off the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance, while we should still see a period of warm advection snow into Tuesday morning, the storm`s dry slow will work into the region by the afternoon, with the best deformation and cold conveyor belt precip remaining north of the area. Even with the dry slot, an additional period of snow will be possible along the storm`s cold front as it crosses later in the day as well. A few additional inches of snow will accumulate during the day Tuesday (with the highest amounts of areas north of Albany) and the commute looks rather slow and slippery for Tuesday morning. Storm total amounts look to be about 2 to 6 inches, with the lowest values in southern areas and highest amounts for northern and high terrain locations. If the models trend back southward with the track of the storm, then amounts are certainly subject to change. For now, winter Weather Advisories will likely be needed for parts of the region and we will continue to highlight this threat in the HWO statement. Temperatures will generally be in the mid 20s to mid 30s for Tuesday. Although the best chance for widespread snow will exit by Tuesday evening, some additional light snow showers and flurries are possible across the region for Tuesday night into Wednesday thanks to the closed off upper level trough that will be over the Northeast. In addition, the cold temps aloft will allow for another period of lake-effect snow to impact the western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley. The snow band will be meandering and changing direction thanks to the changing upper level flow due to the nearby upper level trough, but some additional accumulation will be possible across Herkimer County. Otherwise, it looks fairly cloudy and chilly for the remainder of the area, with lows on Tuesday night in the single digits and teens and highs on Wednesday in the teens and 20s. Some additional lake-effect snow will be possible for the Mohawk Valley for Wed night into Thursday, as the continued cold temps aloft should continue to allow for a broken band of snow. Otherwise, look for partly cloudy, chilly and somewhat breezy conditions for the rest of the area. Eventually, increasing warm advection ahead of the next advancing clipper system should allow for the lake- effect to be disrupted and ending by later in the day on Thursday. Lows on Wed night will be in the single digits and teens and highs on Thursday will be in the teens and 20s. The next storm system will be impacting the region for Thursday night into Friday. This will be another northern stream clipper system that looks to reform off the Northeast coast as it moves across the area. While there will be some moisture with this system, the track of the main low looks to be too north and too quick moving to produce substantial amounts of snowfall. Still, a light accumulation looks possible, especially for northern areas. Behind this system once again, another period of lake-effect snow will be possible for far western areas for Friday night into Saturday. Outside of the lake-effect, it should be partly to mostly cloudy and breezy. Temps will continue to be chilly, with lows on Thurs/Fri nights in the teens and highs on Fri/Sat in the mid 20s to mid 30s. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As a coastal storm continues, steady light snowfall is producing IFR conditions for all sites, with occasional LIFR conditions, mainly due to visibility. However, snowfall should be tapering off this evening as the storm departs, and flying conditions will improve by 02z-05z with conditions going to MVFR and eventually back to VFR, as snow ends from west to east. KPSF will be the site that takes the longest to return to VFR conditions due to being further east. Mainly VFR conditions are expected for late tonight with light west to northwest winds and bkn mid level clouds (although some bkn cigs around 3500-5000 ft may continue at KPSF through the night). During the day on Sunday, flying conditions will be VFR with bkn cigs around 3500-5000 ft with no precipitation expected. Westerly winds will increase to around 10-15 kts and become gusty, especially at KPSF/KALB, where some gusts may reach 20-25 kts by the afternoon hours. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SN. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SN. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic problems are expected the next several days. Cold weather with periods of snow and snow showers are forecast. Ice will form and thicken on area lakes and rivers and some river gauges may start to show erroneous readings due to ice by the end of next week. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM EST Sunday for CTZ001-013. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM EST Sunday for NYZ053-054- 059>061-064>066. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ032-033. MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM EST Sunday for MAZ001-025. VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM EST Sunday for VTZ013>015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA/Frugis SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Frugis HYDROLOGY...IAA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
459 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 456 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017 Have cancelled the Red Flag Warning since winds have dropped off and RH values are on the climb as temperatures decrease. Expect very dry conditions again on Sunday with RH values of 10-15%, Increasing northwest winds Sunday afternoon should keep fire weather conditions elevated, but just short of critical conditions. && .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 217 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017 Northwest flow remains in place across the Central High Plains, and WV imagery and RAP analysis indicates subsidence region migrating over our CWA. This afternoon: Red flag conditions (RH 15% or lower/winds gusting 25mph) are occurring over eastern Colorado and in the last hour have started in far northwest Kansas. Ultimately we may not meet 3hr of these conditions before winds begins to decrease in the next hour or so, but I will let Red Flag Warning play out as conditions are ongoing and it is close enough considering the very dry fuels. Tonight-Sunday: Downslope develops as BL flow shifts more to a westerly direction in Colorado and WAA increase late tonight through Sunday. Air mass will moderate and we may see mixing overnight and enough wind to limit radiational conditions in our east. I trended overnight lows up some (near 30F), but may still be low. Highs Sunday should be in the 60s, and with very low Tds still expected we may reach 15% RH across much of our CWA. Gradient weakens some from the west to the east, and winds ultimately may not be strong enough for RFW consideration. If we mix well enough in the east it is possible locations east of the CO state line might see a window for critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon. This would likely be less than 3hr over a smaller area in our east and confidence isn`t high enough for issuance yet. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 115 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017 For the extended period...little change expected in the forecast from previous runs. Models continue to have strong H5/H7 ridging over the western portion of the country...with a trough/upper low combo over the east. Several shortwaves will work down along the east side of the upper ridge during the upcoming week. These systems will work SE into the Central Plains region before moving east and eventually get caught up in the circulation of the low/trough over the east. While these systems will come thru dry...winds will end being the main focus with their passage. Low level jet associated with Monday`s shortwave passage could mix down 850-700 mb winds in the 45- 60kt range from 18z-00z. Consmos has been consistent in showing this for past few days so have used instead of forecast blend. Shortwaves for the latter portion of the week will also bring potential for breezy/windy conditions for the afternoon hours. These winds combined with the dry conditions will bring about low RH readings...with many days 20 percent or less...especially along and west of Highway 25/27. This will bring about critical/near critical Fire Wx conditions for the afternoon hrs. Up first will be Monday afternoon. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 456 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017 VFR conditions with clear skies will continue across the central high plains region tonight and Sunday. Light northwest winds tonight will increase and become gusty for a few hours during the mid-afternoon on Sunday. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...LOCKHART SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...LOCKHART
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
532 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 327 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017 Persistent ridging across the western CONUS will continue through Sunday, with dry northwest flow aloft on the eastern side of the ridge across the central and northern plains. Northwest winds continue to persist at the surface as well. Winds will actually increase a little tonight as a Pacific cold front crosses the area. Mild Pacific air in the wake of this front will keep low temperatures mild, in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Where winds decouple in lower spots like river valleys, it will be a bit colder in the lower 20s. Full sunshine Sunday, plus a surge of warmer air aloft, with 850mb temperatures rising to between 8C and 10C, will boost highs into the lower 60s across portions of the area. Did shave a few degrees off highs across northern Sheridan county where there is some lingering snow cover. Winds Sunday will remain northwest, and with deep mixing gusts to 20 to 25 mph are likely. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 327 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017 The main forecast concern revolves around a potential high wind event Monday. This is the result of a cold front and upper level support from a low diving through the upper midwest. The model consensus continues to show 65-85kt winds at 700mb and mixing heights to around 800mb. The strongest winds aloft precede the cold front moving through early Monday morning. The latest guidance and 500m AGL winds are 25 to 30 kts. Bufkit suggested gusts to 45-55 mph. The feature of interest is 1.5 PV anomaly swinging through ncntl Neb Monday afternoon. The pressure of that surface lowers to 600 mb which could be sufficient to mix the stronger winds aloft surface-ward. It is also evident that the corridor of strong winds aloft is collocated with the lowest PV pressure which approaches nctl Neb late in the aftn. The models tend to miss these types of high wind events and in fact, only the HRRR model and occasionally the RAP model have shown consistent success forecasting the wind gusts. Since these models only run 18 to 24 hours in advance, the predictability of a high wind event at this time is speculative. The forecast is for 25 to 30 mph winds with gusts to around 50 mph. NAM and GFS Bufkit was the basis for the wind gusts. A second cold front will move through either Wednesday or Wednesday night followed by a third Friday night. These fronts and the one Monday may have sufficient moisture for isolated rain or snow showers...mainly across ncntl Neb. The temperature forecast uses the model blend plus the previous forecast plus bias corrected guidance for highs in the 40s and 50s. Bias correction had little impact on high temperatures and lowered min temperatures a degree or two. None of the models indicate any kind of direct arctic air moving into ncntl and wrn Neb. Mostly pacific air is indicated with a chance for brief arctic influence late next week. Thus the temperature forecast is for above normal highs and lows. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 528 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017 Low level wind shear will be main concern for aviation across western Nebraska. As winds at the surface decouple and become light winds at 2kft AGL will continue at 35 to 45kts out of the north. Winds will increase across the surface after 12z on the 10th. Skies will be mostly clear with VFR cigs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 327 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017 Conditions for range fire development Sunday will be elevated across most of wrn and ncntl Nebraska. Conditions will be elevated across Frenchman basin Monday. 15 percent or less relative humidity develops for 2 hours across the Frenchman basin Sunday and around 20 percent across areas generally along and west of highway 183. Winds gusts 20 to 25 mph Sunday afternoon and nearly full sun are expected with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Strong winds with gusts to 45 mph and humidity near 20 percent develop for a few hours Monday afternoon across the Frenchman basin. Temperatures rise into the mid 50s and nearly full sun is expected. This represents an elevated condition for range fire development. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...Power FIRE WEATHER...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
622 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017 .SHORT TERM... 111 PM CST Through Sunday... A convergent band of lake effect snow is moving into northwest Indiana. Latest observational trends upstream across Lake Michigan follow the conceptual model that the focus of heavy lake effect will generally shift east of the area through the afternoon. RAP boundary layer convergence fields have captured the evolution fairly well, and it keeps at least a few hour period into early evening of strong convergence across LaPorte county eastward. There is still some lingering though weaker convergence in northern Porter county, and the strong signal is still awfully close to northeast Porter such that we do not plan any changes to the winter storm warning for lake effect snow and blowing snow. And the winds in northeast Porter and southwest LaPorte are howling, with gusts of 38-45 kt being reported right at the shoreline. Rapid changes in visibility are expected, though the strong winds may preclude accumulations from getting out of hand and keep the snow progressive, at least in our area. Deep low pressure over southeast Lake Michigan will shift east and weaken through the afternoon and more so this evening. The gradient will be strong enough to maintain wind gusts near 30-35 mph through the afternoon even away from northwest Indiana. And the lake snow belt can continue to expect at least occasional moderate to briefly heavy snow shower bands into early evening. Elsewhere, lower clouds will fade this evening. High pressure will pass well south of the area tonight while a secondary low pressure trough will develop from the upper Midwest into the plains. Winds will shift back to southwesterly overnight ahead of this low that will dive southeast ahead of another sheared vort max in northwest flow. Model guidance paints just some mid level clouds and scattered lower clouds. But, the mid level forcing and warm advection ahead of this low may be able to offset somewhat drier lower levels for a few flurries overnight with this feature. The southwest winds will allow temps to bounce back into the 30s Sunday. The trough axis will pass through in the early afternoon and a send a weak cold front through, again with most likely just an increase in clouds. KMD && .LONG TERM... 145 PM CST Sunday night through Saturday... A fairly active weather pattern is still expected for the next several days, with periodic chances for pcpn. The upper level pattern will continue to trend toward high amplitude and slow progression with upper ridging building over the wrn 1/3 of the CONUS and broad troughing over the ern 2/3 CONUS. The slowly progressive, high amplitude long-wave pattern lends relatively higher confidence in the overall trends of the long term forecast period, with persistent nwly flow aloft with a series of northern stream shortwaves bringing period chances for pcpn, mainly due to fast-hitting clipper-type systems. While temperature trends will generally be for below normal, a couple brief warm-ups should occur in advance of the associated sfc lows dropping through the upper midwest. The longer range guidance remains in relatively good agreement on the first clipper tracking across the region on Monday and another on Wednesday night, which will take a track most favorable for pcpn. There will be other shortwaves dropping through the fast nwly flow aloft that will track either too north or too south to bring pcpn to the CWA, but will bring reinforcing shots of cold air that will keep the upper trough over the ern 2/3 of the CONUS. The longer range guidance is trending toward more progression and decreasing amplitude to the upper level pattern toward the end of next week as Pacific-sourced shortwave energy breaks down the upper ridge over the west with weak upper ridging building ewd. This should allow for a moderating trend for temperatures toward the end of next week.t week. && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs... Northwest winds will quickly ease early this evening and back to southwest during the predawn hours. Another weak cold front will move across the area Sunday afternoon causing winds to shift to northwest. Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. - Izzi && .MARINE... 200 PM CST Gale warning is in effect for the southern 2/3 of Lake Michigan into this evening. Low pressure that moved across cntrl/srn Lake Michigan is now lifting across srn Lower Michigan toward the ern Great Lakes. Strong north to northwest winds have reached close to storm force over the far srn tip of the lake. The pressure gradient and cold advection should remain strong enough to support gales continuing into this evening. Winds should begin to diminish through this evening as high pressure begins to build in from the west. Winds will also back to swly overnight tonight and tomorrow morning as a weak low tracks through the upper Great Lakes. The active weather pattern will persist through next week, with a series of low pressure troughs and cold fronts moving through the region. A strong low is expected to drop out of the Upper Mississippi Valley Monday, bringing increasing swly winds. Following the passage of this low, a reinforcing shot of cold air and a strengthening pressure gradient between the deepening low over the ern Great lakes and high pressure building over the wrn plains will support another round of northwest gales Monday night into Tuesday evening. Winds will eventually diminish by Wednesday as the next high pressure ridge moves in, but with another low and strong northwest winds again Thursday. && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...Lakeshore Flood Advisory...INZ001-INZ002 until midnight Sunday. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779 until 9 PM Saturday. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
627 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017 .Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion... Issued at 611 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017 && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017 The forecast concern near term is cloud trends during the period. Pesky lower clouds continue to plague parts of the southern cwa this afternoon. Does appear to be clearing/eroding from the north and the near the edges. HRRR trend does break this out but high clouds move in rapidly behind the cloud area into the night. Meanwhile, models drop a weakening short wave in the northwest flow affecting mainly eastern areas later tonight. Will drag a cold front south over the area into Sunday morning and should bring a return to some lower clouds after 06z. Depending on thickness of clouds this evening, temperatures may drop off a few degrees to the est, but nearly steady to slowly rising temepratures are expected over the west. CLouds may linger at least the first half of the day and may limit warming, especially to the east. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017 The long term trends continue the northwest flow pattern over the cwa with timing and strength of short waves riding the western CONUS ridge to the eastern CONUS trough. The first wave arrives Sunday night affecting mainly the eastern half of the area. Snow, mainly light, appears to be the main concern with the passage of this wave. The GEFS probability has 100% chance for snow over the eastern cwa with perhaps some freezing drizzle across the west if ice is not present aloft when the overall lift moves through mainly Sunday night. The ECMWF is a little slower with the trough and this may result in a longer precipitation threat to the east into Monday morning. At the moment, we have a general 1 to 2 inches accumulation mainly along and east of the I94. Timing will be critical but the Monday morning commute could be cumbersome. This system exits to the southeast Monday with windy and colder air filtering in behind through at least midweek. The next short wave rides southeast over the area Wednesday into Thursday. It looks cold enough for just snow with this feature, and accumulation should remain light. The deterministic models trend some flattening of the western ridge as a stronger trough moves ashore over the Pacific Northwest later in the week. This may allow somewhat warmer Pacific air to make some headway into at least the southwest part of the state early next weekend. This appears to be only a brief interruption in the overall mean flow with the west coast ridge rebuilding and the eastern CONUS trough amplifying once again after that. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 611 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017 Mainly VFR conditions but cant rule out MVFR clouds developing overnight and Sunday. At this point went with the more optimistic forecast, but some guidance shows clouds around 2000ft. Winds will be southwest overnight but take on a northwest direction for Sunday. There is a chance for some MVFR/IFR snow late Sunday night into Monday morning...mainly north of I-94. KMSP... Continued with VFR conditions throughout, but could see the scattered lower cloud deck become broken or overcast tomorrow. If that were to happen, bases should still remain above 1700 ft. Expect southwest winds tonight, and westnorthwest on Sunday. There is a chance for some MVFR/IFR snow late Sunday night into Monday morning. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Mon...MFVR with chc IFR/-SN early. Wind NW 15G25 kts. Tue...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts. Wed...MVFR with -SN. Wind SE at 10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DWE LONG TERM... AVIATION...JRB
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
430 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017 .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday) Issued at 231 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017 Strong upper ridging persists across the western CONUS and a deep upper trough across the eastern half of the country...with northwest flow continuing across the northern plains. Surface high pressure has built in across the MO valley with a surface low just north of ND. Temps have risen into the 50s across most plains locations with some temperatures east of the Black Hills hitting the low 60s. Winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph will continue through the afternoon...and decrease in the next couple hours. Latest HRRR show warm air advection-related downsloping winds keeping things breezy overnight across the foothills near Sturgis to Black Hawk to Rapid City. Warmer air moving in will bring temps into the 50s to low 60s across a wider area tomorrow under mostly sunny skies. Would be surprised if a few locations reached the mid 60s. A cold front will cross the area Sunday night into Monday bringing cooler weather...but still above average. Another breezy day is expected Monday with potential advisory criteria winds. For the rest of the week...the baroclinic zone with move back and forth bringing varied temperatures to the CWA. Generally, however, temperatures will be in the 40s or 50s. The next chance for precip will be late Friday into Saturday as an upper wave crosses the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Sunday Evening) Issued At 429 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017 VFR conditions will continue through Sunday afternoon. Low level wind shear will develop over much of western South Dakota this evening and will continue through tonight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 231 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017 Unseasonably warm temperatures and very dry air are expected to return tomorrow with relative humidities dropping to around 15 percent. West to northwest winds are expected to increase to 10 to 20 mph tomorrow...possibly with gusts up to 30 mph. These conditions may result in critical fire weather conditions. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for SDZ260>264. WY...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for WYZ299. && $$ DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...7 FIRE WEATHER...13