Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/10/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
945 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Snow will taper off this evening as the coastal storm moves away
from the region. In the wake of this storm, lake effect snow
will develop and impact portions of the western Adirondacks and
western Mohawk Valley Sunday and Sunday night. Fair weather is
expected for Monday with a light to moderate snowfall possible
for Monday night and Tuesday as another system approaches from
the west.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 945 PM EST...A large upper level trough continues to dig
eastward across Ohio Valley and into the Tennessee Valley and
southern Appalachians. At the surface, an extensive frontal
boundary is situated just off the eastern seaboard with a wave
of low pressure moving up the front. The low pressure area is
now located off the coast of Cape Cod and continues to track
northeast as it rapidly deepens.
Meanwhile, steady snowfall is still ongoing across the Taconics
and western New England, with some additional lighter areas of
snow across the Capital Region and mid-Hudson Valley. There
still is some moderate snowfall over the central Taconics and
the Berkshires thanks to a mesoscale band that developed due to
some mid-level frontogenesis. Snowfall rates may locally exceed
one half inch per hour under this band, but the heaviest
snowfall should be weakening and exiting eastward over the next
hour or two, as shown in the latest 3km HRRR and NAM. Winter
Weather Advisory continues across eastern zones, with storm
totals amounts of 3 to 7 inches expected in total for these
areas.
The snow will continue to tapering off this evening from west
to east, with eastern areas ending by around 04z-06z. Until
then, slippery travel conditions can be expected, especially on
untreated surfaces and secondary roadways.
Lake enhanced snow off of lake Ontario will develop late
tonight as the low level flow becomes favorable. Initially, any
lake effect looks rather fragmented and cellular, with activity
becoming more concentrated during the day on Sunday. Elsewhere,
it will just be partly to mostly cloudy with seasonably chilly
temperatures. Expecting lows from the upper teens to mid 20s,
with the coldest temps across the higher elevations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The Winter Weather Advisory for lake effect snow remains in Sunday
and Sunday night for northern Herkimer and western Hamilton
counties.
Another round of lake effect/enhanced snow off of lakes Ontario
and Erie in the wake of the coastal storm. The snow off of
Ontario is expected to impact mainly the western Adirondacks
Sunday and shift southward and diminish Sunday night. Some snow
off of Erie is expected to reach our local, the western Mohawk
Valley, during day. Snowfall of 2 to 6 inches is expected across
the advisory area with the higher amounts across northern
Herkimer. Snowfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the
western Mohawk Valley.
Will have a brief lull in the precipitation Monday after the
lake effect diminishes and before a widespread snowfall
overspreads the area as high pressure slides across the region.
Another northern stream system will impact the region, this time
the storm will approaches from the Great Lakes region. Isentropic
lift ahead of the system as its warm front approaches will
result is precipitation overspreading the area from west to
east and it will be cold enough for snow with a light
accumulation expected at this time.
Temperatures will be seasonable cold.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Longwave trough will continue to be located over the Great Lakes and
northeastern United States through the entire long term period,
which will allow for continued below normal temperatures. Although
there won`t be any high precipitation events through the period,
fast moving northern stream systems will bring a few chances of
light precipitation in the form of snow through the week.
At the start of the period, low pressure will be moving across the
eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday. This low pressure area will be
reforming off the coast of New England by Tuesday evening before it
rapidly deepens as it exits northeast into the Canadian Maritimes.
The latest trends in the models have shifted this storm track
further north from previous runs. Based off the latest
deterministic and ensemble guidance, while we should still see a
period of warm advection snow into Tuesday morning, the storm`s dry
slow will work into the region by the afternoon, with the best
deformation and cold conveyor belt precip remaining north of the
area. Even with the dry slot, an additional period of snow will be
possible along the storm`s cold front as it crosses later in the day
as well. A few additional inches of snow will accumulate during the
day Tuesday (with the highest amounts of areas north of Albany) and
the commute looks rather slow and slippery for Tuesday morning.
Storm total amounts look to be about 2 to 6 inches, with the lowest
values in southern areas and highest amounts for northern and high
terrain locations. If the models trend back southward with the track
of the storm, then amounts are certainly subject to change. For
now, winter Weather Advisories will likely be needed for parts of
the region and we will continue to highlight this threat in the HWO
statement. Temperatures will generally be in the mid 20s to mid 30s
for Tuesday.
Although the best chance for widespread snow will exit by Tuesday
evening, some additional light snow showers and flurries are
possible across the region for Tuesday night into Wednesday thanks
to the closed off upper level trough that will be over the
Northeast. In addition, the cold temps aloft will allow for another
period of lake-effect snow to impact the western Adirondacks and
Mohawk Valley. The snow band will be meandering and changing
direction thanks to the changing upper level flow due to the nearby
upper level trough, but some additional accumulation will be
possible across Herkimer County. Otherwise, it looks fairly cloudy
and chilly for the remainder of the area, with lows on Tuesday night
in the single digits and teens and highs on Wednesday in the teens
and 20s.
Some additional lake-effect snow will be possible for the Mohawk
Valley for Wed night into Thursday, as the continued cold temps
aloft should continue to allow for a broken band of snow. Otherwise,
look for partly cloudy, chilly and somewhat breezy conditions for
the rest of the area. Eventually, increasing warm advection ahead
of the next advancing clipper system should allow for the lake-
effect to be disrupted and ending by later in the day on Thursday.
Lows on Wed night will be in the single digits and teens and highs
on Thursday will be in the teens and 20s.
The next storm system will be impacting the region for Thursday
night into Friday. This will be another northern stream clipper
system that looks to reform off the Northeast coast as it moves
across the area. While there will be some moisture with this
system, the track of the main low looks to be too north and too
quick moving to produce substantial amounts of snowfall. Still, a
light accumulation looks possible, especially for northern areas.
Behind this system once again, another period of lake-effect snow
will be possible for far western areas for Friday night into
Saturday. Outside of the lake-effect, it should be partly to mostly
cloudy and breezy. Temps will continue to be chilly, with lows on
Thurs/Fri nights in the teens and highs on Fri/Sat in the mid 20s to
mid 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As a coastal storm continues, steady light snowfall is
producing IFR conditions for all sites, with occasional LIFR
conditions, mainly due to visibility. However, snowfall should
be tapering off this evening as the storm departs, and flying
conditions will improve by 02z-05z with conditions going to MVFR
and eventually back to VFR, as snow ends from west to east.
KPSF will be the site that takes the longest to return to VFR
conditions due to being further east.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected for late tonight with light
west to northwest winds and bkn mid level clouds (although some
bkn cigs around 3500-5000 ft may continue at KPSF through the
night).
During the day on Sunday, flying conditions will be VFR with
bkn cigs around 3500-5000 ft with no precipitation expected.
Westerly winds will increase to around 10-15 kts and become
gusty, especially at KPSF/KALB, where some gusts may reach 20-25
kts by the afternoon hours.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SN.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SN.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected the next several days.
Cold weather with periods of snow and snow showers are forecast.
Ice will form and thicken on area lakes and rivers and some
river gauges may start to show erroneous readings due to ice by
the end of next week.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM EST Sunday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM EST Sunday for NYZ053-054-
059>061-064>066.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday
for NYZ032-033.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM EST Sunday for MAZ001-025.
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM EST Sunday for VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/Frugis
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...IAA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
459 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 456 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017
Have cancelled the Red Flag Warning since winds have dropped off
and RH values are on the climb as temperatures decrease. Expect
very dry conditions again on Sunday with RH values of 10-15%,
Increasing northwest winds Sunday afternoon should keep fire
weather conditions elevated, but just short of critical
conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 217 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017
Northwest flow remains in place across the Central High Plains, and
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicates subsidence region migrating
over our CWA.
This afternoon: Red flag conditions (RH 15% or lower/winds gusting
25mph) are occurring over eastern Colorado and in the last hour have
started in far northwest Kansas. Ultimately we may not meet 3hr of
these conditions before winds begins to decrease in the next hour or
so, but I will let Red Flag Warning play out as conditions are
ongoing and it is close enough considering the very dry fuels.
Tonight-Sunday: Downslope develops as BL flow shifts more to a
westerly direction in Colorado and WAA increase late tonight through
Sunday. Air mass will moderate and we may see mixing overnight and
enough wind to limit radiational conditions in our east. I trended
overnight lows up some (near 30F), but may still be low. Highs
Sunday should be in the 60s, and with very low Tds still expected we
may reach 15% RH across much of our CWA. Gradient weakens some from
the west to the east, and winds ultimately may not be strong enough
for RFW consideration. If we mix well enough in the east it is
possible locations east of the CO state line might see a window for
critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon. This would
likely be less than 3hr over a smaller area in our east and
confidence isn`t high enough for issuance yet.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 115 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017
For the extended period...little change expected in the forecast
from previous runs. Models continue to have strong H5/H7 ridging
over the western portion of the country...with a trough/upper low
combo over the east. Several shortwaves will work down along the
east side of the upper ridge during the upcoming week. These systems
will work SE into the Central Plains region before moving east and
eventually get caught up in the circulation of the low/trough over
the east.
While these systems will come thru dry...winds will end being the
main focus with their passage. Low level jet associated with
Monday`s shortwave passage could mix down 850-700 mb winds in the 45-
60kt range from 18z-00z. Consmos has been consistent in showing this
for past few days so have used instead of forecast blend. Shortwaves
for the latter portion of the week will also bring potential for
breezy/windy conditions for the afternoon hours.
These winds combined with the dry conditions will bring about low RH
readings...with many days 20 percent or less...especially along and
west of Highway 25/27. This will bring about critical/near critical
Fire Wx conditions for the afternoon hrs. Up first will be Monday
afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 456 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017
VFR conditions with clear skies will continue across the central
high plains region tonight and Sunday. Light northwest winds
tonight will increase and become gusty for a few hours during the
mid-afternoon on Sunday.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
532 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017
Persistent ridging across the western CONUS will continue through
Sunday, with dry northwest flow aloft on the eastern side of the
ridge across the central and northern plains. Northwest winds
continue to persist at the surface as well. Winds will actually
increase a little tonight as a Pacific cold front crosses the area.
Mild Pacific air in the wake of this front will keep low
temperatures mild, in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Where winds
decouple in lower spots like river valleys, it will be a bit colder
in the lower 20s.
Full sunshine Sunday, plus a surge of warmer air aloft, with 850mb
temperatures rising to between 8C and 10C, will boost highs into the
lower 60s across portions of the area. Did shave a few degrees off
highs across northern Sheridan county where there is some lingering
snow cover. Winds Sunday will remain northwest, and with deep mixing
gusts to 20 to 25 mph are likely.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017
The main forecast concern revolves around a potential high wind
event Monday. This is the result of a cold front and upper level
support from a low diving through the upper midwest. The model
consensus continues to show 65-85kt winds at 700mb and mixing
heights to around 800mb. The strongest winds aloft precede the cold
front moving through early Monday morning.
The latest guidance and 500m AGL winds are 25 to 30 kts. Bufkit
suggested gusts to 45-55 mph. The feature of interest is 1.5 PV
anomaly swinging through ncntl Neb Monday afternoon. The pressure of
that surface lowers to 600 mb which could be sufficient to mix the
stronger winds aloft surface-ward. It is also evident that the
corridor of strong winds aloft is collocated with the lowest PV
pressure which approaches nctl Neb late in the aftn.
The models tend to miss these types of high wind events and in fact,
only the HRRR model and occasionally the RAP model have shown
consistent success forecasting the wind gusts. Since these models
only run 18 to 24 hours in advance, the predictability of a high
wind event at this time is speculative. The forecast is for 25 to 30
mph winds with gusts to around 50 mph. NAM and GFS Bufkit was the
basis for the wind gusts.
A second cold front will move through either Wednesday or Wednesday
night followed by a third Friday night. These fronts and the one
Monday may have sufficient moisture for isolated rain or snow
showers...mainly across ncntl Neb.
The temperature forecast uses the model blend plus the previous
forecast plus bias corrected guidance for highs in the 40s and 50s.
Bias correction had little impact on high temperatures and lowered
min temperatures a degree or two.
None of the models indicate any kind of direct arctic air moving
into ncntl and wrn Neb. Mostly pacific air is indicated with a
chance for brief arctic influence late next week. Thus the
temperature forecast is for above normal highs and lows.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017
Low level wind shear will be main concern for aviation across
western Nebraska. As winds at the surface decouple and become
light winds at 2kft AGL will continue at 35 to 45kts out of the
north. Winds will increase across the surface after 12z on the
10th. Skies will be mostly clear with VFR cigs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 327 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017
Conditions for range fire development Sunday will be elevated across
most of wrn and ncntl Nebraska. Conditions will be elevated across
Frenchman basin Monday.
15 percent or less relative humidity develops for 2 hours across the
Frenchman basin Sunday and around 20 percent across areas generally
along and west of highway 183. Winds gusts 20 to 25 mph Sunday
afternoon and nearly full sun are expected with highs in the upper
50s to lower 60s.
Strong winds with gusts to 45 mph and humidity near 20 percent
develop for a few hours Monday afternoon across the Frenchman basin.
Temperatures rise into the mid 50s and nearly full sun is expected.
This represents an elevated condition for range fire development.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Power
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
622 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017
.SHORT TERM...
111 PM CST
Through Sunday...
A convergent band of lake effect snow is moving into northwest
Indiana. Latest observational trends upstream across Lake Michigan
follow the conceptual model that the focus of heavy lake effect
will generally shift east of the area through the afternoon. RAP
boundary layer convergence fields have captured the evolution
fairly well, and it keeps at least a few hour period into early
evening of strong convergence across LaPorte county eastward.
There is still some lingering though weaker convergence in
northern Porter county, and the strong signal is still awfully
close to northeast Porter such that we do not plan any changes to
the winter storm warning for lake effect snow and blowing snow.
And the winds in northeast Porter and southwest LaPorte are
howling, with gusts of 38-45 kt being reported right at the
shoreline. Rapid changes in visibility are expected, though the
strong winds may preclude accumulations from getting out of hand
and keep the snow progressive, at least in our area.
Deep low pressure over southeast Lake Michigan will shift east
and weaken through the afternoon and more so this evening. The
gradient will be strong enough to maintain wind gusts near 30-35
mph through the afternoon even away from northwest Indiana. And
the lake snow belt can continue to expect at least occasional
moderate to briefly heavy snow shower bands into early evening.
Elsewhere, lower clouds will fade this evening. High pressure
will pass well south of the area tonight while a secondary low
pressure trough will develop from the upper Midwest into the
plains. Winds will shift back to southwesterly overnight ahead of
this low that will dive southeast ahead of another sheared vort
max in northwest flow. Model guidance paints just some mid level
clouds and scattered lower clouds. But, the mid level forcing and
warm advection ahead of this low may be able to offset somewhat
drier lower levels for a few flurries overnight with this
feature. The southwest winds will allow temps to bounce back into
the 30s Sunday. The trough axis will pass through in the early
afternoon and a send a weak cold front through, again with most
likely just an increase in clouds.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
145 PM CST
Sunday night through Saturday...
A fairly active weather pattern is still expected for the next
several days, with periodic chances for pcpn.
The upper level pattern will continue to trend toward high amplitude
and slow progression with upper ridging building over the wrn 1/3 of
the CONUS and broad troughing over the ern 2/3 CONUS. The slowly
progressive, high amplitude long-wave pattern lends relatively
higher confidence in the overall trends of the long term forecast
period, with persistent nwly flow aloft with a series of northern
stream shortwaves bringing period chances for pcpn, mainly due to
fast-hitting clipper-type systems. While temperature trends will
generally be for below normal, a couple brief warm-ups should occur
in advance of the associated sfc lows dropping through the upper
midwest. The longer range guidance remains in relatively good
agreement on the first clipper tracking across the region on Monday
and another on Wednesday night, which will take a track most
favorable for pcpn. There will be other shortwaves dropping through
the fast nwly flow aloft that will track either too north or too
south to bring pcpn to the CWA, but will bring reinforcing shots of
cold air that will keep the upper trough over the ern 2/3 of the
CONUS. The longer range guidance is trending toward more
progression and decreasing amplitude to the upper level pattern
toward the end of next week as Pacific-sourced shortwave energy
breaks down the upper ridge over the west with weak upper ridging
building ewd. This should allow for a moderating trend for
temperatures toward the end of next week.t week.
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...
Northwest winds will quickly ease early this evening and back to
southwest during the predawn hours. Another weak cold front will
move across the area Sunday afternoon causing winds to shift to
northwest. Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast period.
- Izzi
&&
.MARINE...
200 PM CST
Gale warning is in effect for the southern 2/3 of Lake Michigan
into this evening.
Low pressure that moved across cntrl/srn Lake Michigan is now
lifting across srn Lower Michigan toward the ern Great Lakes.
Strong north to northwest winds have reached close to storm force
over the far srn tip of the lake. The pressure gradient and cold
advection should remain strong enough to support gales continuing
into this evening. Winds should begin to diminish through this
evening as high pressure begins to build in from the west. Winds
will also back to swly overnight tonight and tomorrow morning as a
weak low tracks through the upper Great Lakes.
The active weather pattern will persist through next week, with a
series of low pressure troughs and cold fronts moving through the
region. A strong low is expected to drop out of the Upper
Mississippi Valley Monday, bringing increasing swly winds.
Following the passage of this low, a reinforcing shot of cold air
and a strengthening pressure gradient between the deepening low
over the ern Great lakes and high pressure building over the wrn
plains will support another round of northwest gales Monday night
into Tuesday evening. Winds will eventually diminish by Wednesday
as the next high pressure ridge moves in, but with another low
and strong northwest winds again Thursday.
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...Lakeshore Flood Advisory...INZ001-INZ002 until midnight Sunday.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779 until 9 PM
Saturday.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
627 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017
.Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 611 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017
The forecast concern near term is cloud trends during the period.
Pesky lower clouds continue to plague parts of the southern cwa
this afternoon. Does appear to be clearing/eroding from the north
and the near the edges. HRRR trend does break this out but high
clouds move in rapidly behind the cloud area into the night.
Meanwhile, models drop a weakening short wave in the northwest
flow affecting mainly eastern areas later tonight. Will drag a
cold front south over the area into Sunday morning and should
bring a return to some lower clouds after 06z. Depending on
thickness of clouds this evening, temperatures may drop off a few
degrees to the est, but nearly steady to slowly rising
temepratures are expected over the west. CLouds may linger at
least the first half of the day and may limit warming, especially
to the east.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017
The long term trends continue the northwest flow pattern over the
cwa with timing and strength of short waves riding the western
CONUS ridge to the eastern CONUS trough.
The first wave arrives Sunday night affecting mainly the eastern
half of the area. Snow, mainly light, appears to be the main
concern with the passage of this wave. The GEFS probability has
100% chance for snow over the eastern cwa with perhaps some
freezing drizzle across the west if ice is not present aloft when
the overall lift moves through mainly Sunday night. The ECMWF is
a little slower with the trough and this may result in a longer
precipitation threat to the east into Monday morning. At the
moment, we have a general 1 to 2 inches accumulation mainly along
and east of the I94. Timing will be critical but the Monday
morning commute could be cumbersome.
This system exits to the southeast Monday with windy and colder
air filtering in behind through at least midweek. The next short
wave rides southeast over the area Wednesday into Thursday. It
looks cold enough for just snow with this feature, and
accumulation should remain light. The deterministic models trend
some flattening of the western ridge as a stronger trough moves
ashore over the Pacific Northwest later in the week. This may
allow somewhat warmer Pacific air to make some headway into at
least the southwest part of the state early next weekend. This
appears to be only a brief interruption in the overall mean flow
with the west coast ridge rebuilding and the eastern CONUS trough
amplifying once again after that.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 611 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017
Mainly VFR conditions but cant rule out MVFR clouds developing
overnight and Sunday. At this point went with the more optimistic
forecast, but some guidance shows clouds around 2000ft. Winds will
be southwest overnight but take on a northwest direction for
Sunday. There is a chance for some MVFR/IFR snow late Sunday
night into Monday morning...mainly north of I-94.
KMSP...
Continued with VFR conditions throughout, but could see the
scattered lower cloud deck become broken or overcast tomorrow.
If that were to happen, bases should still remain above 1700 ft.
Expect southwest winds tonight, and westnorthwest on Sunday. There
is a chance for some MVFR/IFR snow late Sunday night into Monday
morning.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...MFVR with chc IFR/-SN early. Wind NW 15G25 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.
Wed...MVFR with -SN. Wind SE at 10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRB
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
430 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017
.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017
Strong upper ridging persists across the western CONUS and a deep
upper trough across the eastern half of the country...with
northwest flow continuing across the northern plains. Surface high
pressure has built in across the MO valley with a surface low just
north of ND. Temps have risen into the 50s across most plains
locations with some temperatures east of the Black Hills hitting
the low 60s. Winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph will
continue through the afternoon...and decrease in the next couple
hours. Latest HRRR show warm air advection-related downsloping
winds keeping things breezy overnight across the foothills near
Sturgis to Black Hawk to Rapid City. Warmer air moving in will
bring temps into the 50s to low 60s across a wider area tomorrow
under mostly sunny skies. Would be surprised if a few locations
reached the mid 60s. A cold front will cross the area Sunday night
into Monday bringing cooler weather...but still above average.
Another breezy day is expected Monday with potential advisory
criteria winds. For the rest of the week...the baroclinic zone
with move back and forth bringing varied temperatures to the CWA.
Generally, however, temperatures will be in the 40s or 50s. The
next chance for precip will be late Friday into Saturday as an
upper wave crosses the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued At 429 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017
VFR conditions will continue through Sunday afternoon. Low level
wind shear will develop over much of western South Dakota this
evening and will continue through tonight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 231 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017
Unseasonably warm temperatures and very dry air are expected to
return tomorrow with relative humidities dropping to around 15
percent. West to northwest winds are expected to increase to 10
to 20 mph tomorrow...possibly with gusts up to 30 mph. These
conditions may result in critical fire weather conditions.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
for SDZ260>264.
WY...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
for WYZ299.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...7
FIRE WEATHER...13