Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/25/17

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
653 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 ...Cooler Tonight with Frost Potential parts of SE GA and Fog Potential parts of NE FL... .UPDATE... Seasonally cool night expected with below normal min temps expected across inland SE GA where drier air infiltrated this afternoon under low level NNW drainage flow around the periphery of surface high pressure building across the Gulf Coast region. Dew pts fell into the mid to upper 30s across our NW GA zones, generally NW of Waycross. If skies were expected to remain cloud free, the confidence of widespread frost would be elevated across these SE GA zones, however mid and high clouds are expected to increase through the night as a mid/upper short wave trough approaches from the west. Trended min temps down into the mid/upper 30s from Jesup toward Douglas and included patchy frost. Confidence of widespread frost not high enough for advisory given approaching clouds. Farther south across NE, clouds will continue to push farther ESE of the region with drier air filtering southward with mostly clear skies expected by midnight. Due to recent heavy rainfall and slower erosion of clouds today generally along and south of a Gainesville to Palatka to Palm Coast line, ground moisture is very high. With clearing skies, dry air above the surface, and calm surface winds, included areas of fog after midnight through about 9 am across our southern FL zones. MOS guidance, SREF, HRRR and NAM12 all suggest fog potential as well. May turn into more of low stratus with some model guidance suggesting elevated boundary layer winds of 15 kts from the west. More mild temperatures will range in the upper 40s to lower 50s across these zones. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions this evening as moisture continued to shift farther ESE of the terminals. A batch of low cumulus with bases 3-4 kft over GNV is expected to gradually break apart over the next couple of hours. After midnight, prevailing VFR conditions were advertised for all terminals except VQQ and GNV where lingering low level moisture could support fog and low stratus. Trended VQQ toward marginal MVFR after midnight with elevated confidence of restrictions to at least MVFR to potentially IFR at GNV due to higher low level moisture. After sunrise Sat, prevailing VFR expected under west winds 10 kts or less. .MARINE... Developing offshore winds this evening are expected to gradually decrease with seas subsiding through midnight below advisory levels, but based on recent obs will need to extended SCA for FL near shore waters. At 6 pm EST, Grays Reef buoy 41008 was down to 5 ft and winds were N 14G18 kts and the Fernandina Beach buoy 41112 reported 5 ft seas. The St. Augustine C-Man SAUF1 measured N winds 20G21 kts at 6 pm and buoy 41117 offshore of St. Augustine measured wave heights of 7-8 ft. Will drop the advisory for the near shore GA waters and replace with SCEC then will extended the near shore advisory through 1030 pm this evening for the near shore FL waters due to recent observations. Rip Currents: Moderate risk this evening. Potential for low risk for portions of the local coast Saturday due to offshore flow and subsiding seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 39 69 45 67 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 48 69 51 66 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 47 71 48 68 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 49 70 51 68 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 48 72 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 49 73 48 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Enyedi/23/McGinnis
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
724 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 400 PM EST FRI NOV 24 2017 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mainly zonal mid/upper level flow across the nrn CONUS with a shortwave trough into n cntrl MN. At the surface, a 986mb low was located just sw of James Bay with a cold front extending into nw WI. Radars indicated some sct -shra and virga into cntrl Upper Michigan with greater rain coverage upstream from wrn Lake Superior and far wrn Upper Michigan into nw WI, along and just behind the front. Tonight, expect the band of rain showers, supported by 800-600 mb fgen, to advance across the cwa this evening (between 21z-03z) with the dry slot moving in overnight. Although there may a brief period of moderate rain, overall amounts should be light, generally a tenth of an inch or less. CAA will increase overnight with 850 mb temps dropping to around -10C by 12z. Forecast wet- bulb zero heights suggest that pcpn will be mainly snow by the time any lake effect pcpn develops. Instability (water temps near 5C) will be marginal for LES by with favorable 850-750 mb moisture and inversion heights around 5k ft, some light accumulations, under an inch, will be possible for nw flow favored locations. Saturday, the LES will gradually diminish as inversion heights drop to around 3k-4k ft. However, 850 mb temps to around -13C over ern Lake Superior will support more widespread -shsn with the potential for accumulations around an inch. Otherwise, temps will drop closer to seasonal averages with highs in the lower to mid 30s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 156 PM EST FRI NOV 24 2017 ...No widespread precipitation but could be breezy at times... Strong west to east jet stream over the northern tier of the Conus will persist through next week leading to a progressive and overall warmer pattern. Could still be brief intrusions of cooler air this weekend and again middle of next week with some light lake effect but for most part a lower impact and quiet period is expected in terms of larger scale systems. As a more stronger west to southwest flow develops aloft next weekend downstream of deep trouging over the western Pacific/western Conus, does appear a more prolonged period of warmer weather could develop for the first full week of December per CFS H5 height/H85 temp anomalies and latest 6-10/8-14 day outlooks from CPC. To close the weekend expect broad ridge over western North America with downstream troughing over eastern North America. Brief cold air shot that brings lake effect early this weekend wanes Sat night but another shot of colder air will move back in on Sun. May be a brief period of gusty winds over 30 mph near Lk Superior as that cold air moves in. Only shallow moisture shown in forecast soundings on Sun but could be light lake effect over east. May end up only seeing drizzle though as moisture only extends to temps of -8c which is borderline to introduce ice in moist layer. Will keep it simple with just mention of rain and snow showers attm. Any light precip shuts down Sun night with winds shifting offshore as sfc high brings in warmer south flow. Sfc high moves to lower Great Lakes on Mon while stronger shortwave over western Canada leads to deepening sfc low blo 990mb over the Canadian prairies. South winds btwn the two sfc features will lead to warmer conditions over Upper Michigan on Mon. Could be a lot of mid and even lower clouds around (NAM shows more low clouds trapped beneath inversion) but even so should see temps similar to what occurred today (solid mid to upper 40s with even some low 50s). As bulk of warmest air arrives late in the day on Mon maybe some light rain could develop over the north. GEM more widespread with light qpf compared to GFS and ECMWF. May turn breezy ahead of cold front tied to the low. Strongest winds from southwest would be late Mon into Mon night. Once cooler air works in Tue aftn and Tue night could see lake effect for NW flow areas. GFS soundings are pretty dry blo cloud base and H85 temps around -8c are marginal so any lake effect looks very light. Gusty northwest winds over 30 mph could develop along Lk Superior late Tue into Tue night. Temps will bounce back quickly on Wed, then another shot of colder air moves back in Thu-Fri of next week. Even with the changeable temps, quick moving flow aloft looks to prohibit any big systems. However, there is a hint especially from last few runs of ECMWF of a southern stream rain/snow system lifting through on Thu with enough cold air behind for light lake effect. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 702 PM EST FRI NOV 24 2017 Rain accompanying a cold frontal passage has resulted in MVFR to IFR conditions at the TAF sites this evening. Lowest conditions are at KCMX in an upslope westerly wind flow behind the front. Behind the front, winds will become gusty at each of the TAF sites with the strongest winds (to 35 mph) at the more exposed KCMX site. Light lake effect snow will be possible late tonight into early Saturday morning; however, ceilings and visibility restrictions should be limited with continued MVFR conditions. Expect improvement to VFR Sat afternoon at all sites. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 400 PM EST FRI NOV 24 2017 West winds 20 to 30 knots veering nw with a few gale force gusts to 35 knots are expected tonight. Additional gale force gusts of 35 knots are possible on colder northwest flow into the area late tonight and Saturday. Winds are expected to remain in the 20 to 30 knot range through at least mid weak. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...Voss MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
803 PM PST Fri Nov 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler weather will gradually build from the coast to inland areas through the weekend. A fast moving low pressure trough will bring much cooler but nearly seasonable temperatures on Monday with a chance of light rain showers for all areas except the deserts. As marine influenced air returns, areas of dense fog could return to coastal areas this weekend. Gusty westerly winds will develop over the mountains and deserts Sunday night through Monday night, turning offshore again by Tuesday morning as the trough passes to the east. A stronger Santa Ana weather pattern with strong winds and low relative humidity could develop around Wednesday and persist through Friday next week. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... ...Update... Tranquil conditions continue across Southern California this evening after another very warm day. More records were broken yet again today. ...HIGHEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS BROKEN OR TIED ON NOV 24 2017 ... LOCATION NEW RECORD OLD RECORD PERIOD OF RECORD VISTA 89 TIED 89 IN 1975 1957 ALPINE 86 TIED 86 IN 1959 1951 EL CAJON 92 89 IN 1995 1979 BIG BEAR 70 68 IN 1970 1960 CAMPO 88 85 IN 1970 1948 BORREGO 90 87 IN 2012 1942 Satellite imagery shows a mainly clear sky with just a few high cirrus clouds moving in from the west. Some low clouds have developed off northern Baja and even just off the southern San Diego County coast. HRRR shows most of this remaining offshore or just along the beaches as a weak eddy develops with S-SE winds keeping most of the low clouds and/or patchy fog just off the coast overnight, but then moving a bit inland Sat morning. So some low clouds forecast especially near the San Diego County coast by Sat morning. No significant changes were made to the forecast this evening. See previous discussion below for further forecast details. ...Previous Discussion (Issued at 318 PM PST Fri Nov 24 2017)... Thin high clouds streaming across Central and Southern California this afternoon from the subtropics with some wave clouds noted on the hi-res satellite loops over the Tehachapi Mountains. Far Southern California remains mainly sunny however. Temperatures have been trending a few degrees cooler today although inland and mesa areas remain significantly warmer than normal for late November with Miramar one of the warmest locations recently hitting 94 degrees. The high pressure ridge predominantly responsible for the recent heat wave will gradually shift SE and replaced with a troughy pattern through early next week. Gradually cooler conditions will develop over the weekend with the coolest day likely to be Monday when a vigorous upper level trough originating from the Gulf Of Alaska passes through Central California into the Great Basin through Tuesday. This system could bring some light rain showers to all areas from Monday morning in Orange County through Monday afternoon, with chances for rain added to all areas except the deserts. Brief offshore flow still looks to occur Tuesday morning in the wake of the upper trough with gusts in favorable offshore canyons and coastal slopes of 30 to 40 mph possible. At this time the magnitude of this event looks to be moderate at best and only last for about 12 hours. Medium range forecaster confidence becomes quite poor Wednesday and beyond with the EC indicating the potential for another Santa Ana event but the strongest gradients well to the NE for Thursday and Friday. A cutoff low may develop off the SoCal coast and persist through the end of the work week which makes the forecast of Santa Ana related weather conditions highly difficult this far out. However without an upper level ridge temperatures will warm a bit above normal but not likely to be significantly above normal. && .AVIATION... 250400Z...Coast...Low stratus and dense fog will likely develop near the beaches late tonight and early Saturday morning with possible cigs below 400 feet MSL and vis below 1 mile. The chance is low for a cig at KSAN, KCRQ or KSNA through at least 12Z Sat, though the risk increases some between 12Z and 16Z Sat for KSAN/KCRQ. Low stratus/fog could linger along the beaches Sat afternoon and then spread a few miles inland Sat night. KSAN, KCRQ and KSNA could have VLIFR or LIFR conditions Sat night. Valleys, Mountains and Deserts...Mostly sct clouds above 20000 feet MSL will prevail with unrestricted vis through Sat night. && .MARINE... Areas of dense fog may develop over the coastal waters late tonight and Saturday morning with a greater chance Saturday night. Visibility may be reduced to 1 NM or less at times. A trough of low pressure moving through on Monday will bring northwest winds gusting 20 to 25 kt over the outer waters. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Gregoria (Update)/Brotherton (Prev Discussion) AVIATION/MARINE...Maxwell