Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/11/17

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
843 PM MST Fri Nov 10 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 828 PM MST Fri Nov 10 2017 There is increasing potential for fog tonight over portions of the western Nebraska Panhandle. GOES-16 satellite imagery is currently showing a broad/expanding area of low stratus from eastern CO into northwest KS and southwest NE. Surface observations show generally small T/Td spreads (less than 3F), along with a few pockets of low visibility embedded w/in the stratus shield. This area of moisture appears to be advancing quickly to the west, and the HRRR suggests fog spreading into SNY by 06z with visibility under 1/2 mile. With light southeasterly flow, locally dense fog is a concern from SNY- AIA and possibly northwestward along the Platte River Valley given moist up-valley flow into BFF. Will continue to monitor trends for possible issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory this evening. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 124 PM MST Fri Nov 10 2017 Tonight...Continued dry tonight with lack of low and mid level moisture, although do expect to see a fair amount of middle and high level cloudiness making for a slightly more mild overnight than last night. Veterans Day...Fast moving and low amplitude shortwave trough aloft moves overhead with enough moisture to produce scattered rain and snow showers over the Northern Laramie, Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges with dry conditions elsewhere. Temperatures about the same as today and have compromised between the NAM and GFS MOS maximums. Saturday night...With ridging aloft and cool surface high pressure to our east, producing less wind, expect a cooler night with better radiational cooling. Sunday...Ridging aloft continues with weak return southerly winds limiting the warming trend and keeping temperatures about the same as Saturday. Sunday night...Surface lee troughing will aid in more mixing and also with a moderating airmass to produce a slightly more mild night than Saturday night. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 124 PM MST Fri Nov 10 2017 Main concern during the extended period will be the potential for strong winds mid-week. Current medium range models/ensembles in good agreement with upper ridge along Rocky Mountain Front Range flattening as it translates east across the central CONUS through Monday. Next Pacific upper trough and cold front move ashore into the western CONUS by Monday evening. Rather mild and breezy, especially Monday prior to frontal passage Monday with highs in the 60s east of the Laramie Range. Dry front moves east across the CWA Tuesday, with cooler temperatures west of the Laramie Range, and 55-65 degrees to the east. West to northwest winds will be breezy Tuesday. A period of stronger westerly winds develops late Wednesday through Thursday with west-southwest 700mb winds increasing to 55-65 kt across southeast WY. GFS 700/850mb Craig-Casper gradients likewise increase to 75-90m after 12Z Thursday. 55-60 kt west-northwest 700mb winds spread into western NE by Thursday evening. Will continue to watch these trends as we could be dealing with a significant high wind event during this time. Some Pacific moisture will accompany the stronger cold front, with scattered snow showers over the Snowy/Sierra Madres, and isolated rain showers over portions of western NE. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 614 PM MST Fri Nov 10 2017 VFR prevails through the TAF period with BKN-OVC skies between 10k and 20k feet AGL. Winds will increase across the southeast Wyoming terminals by 18z Saturday, and continue through the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 124 PM MST Fri Nov 10 2017 Mostly dry weather this week. Minimal concerns based on projected humidities and winds. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...CLH SHORT TERM...RUBIN LONG TERM...MAJ AVIATION...CLH FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
549 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday Issued at 157 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017 Lake effect snow continues to push west over the lakeshore counties this afternoon as it breaks apart. A dusting or up to an inch of accumulation is possible from these snow bands, mainly across Kewaunee and northern Manitowoc counties near the lakeshore. These bands are expected to dissipate as they move inland away from the moisture afforded by the lake and winds change to a less favorable direction. Attention then turns to an upper trough approaching the western Great Lakes later tonight into Saturday. Although the mid level dynamics are fairly modest, isentropic lift is fairly strong as winds are almost perpendicular to the isentropic surface at 280 and 285K surfaces. Moisture should be deep enough for mainly snow for most of the event, however as moisture gets scoured out in the mid levels with the forcing shifting from north to south some freezing drizzle is possible across north-central Wisconsin late tonight into Saturday and across central Wisconsin on Saturday. Given snowfall is expected before the freezing drizzle and the freezing drizzle itself is expected to mainly occur during the daytime hours the impact from this precipitation type is expected to be minimal. Snowfall totals tonight and Saturday from this snowfall event are expected to range from 1 to 3 inches across north-central Wisconsin, to 1 to 2 inches across central, with a few tenths or up to an inch across east-central Wisconsin. Lows tonight are expected to range from the upper teens across the north, with lower to middle 20s across the south. Highs Saturday are expected to be in the upper 20s to around 30 across the north, with around 30 in central and lower to middle 30s across east- central Wisconsin. .LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday Issued at 157 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017 Timing systems every 3 days or so in the northern stream flow will be the primary issue. A short wave and frontal system will depart the region Saturday night to end the mixed precipitation across the area. H850 temps would suggest mainly snow showers, but a mix possible in the evening over east central Wisconsin before ending from west to east. Upper ridge and surface high then builds into the Northern Plains and Great Lakes region Sunday into Monday for a dry and moderating trend. The warm air advection turns more robust Monday night into Tuesday with increasing and blustery south to southwest winds. Arrival of the showers will depend on the rate of saturating the air mass into Tuesday. In addition, the dry and cold air mass initially may produce a mix at the onset before turning to rain showers. Otherwise progs focusing the next chance for measurable precipitation with the next northern stream short wave trough and weak cold front passage toward the Tuesday night period. After another high pressure system quickly drifts over Wednesday into Thursday for return to drier conditions. Medium range progs divert greatly on solutions late next week into the following weekend with confidence in most parameters greatly dropping. After a cold weeks temps expected to rebound back to closer to normal levels in the 40s. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 542 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017 Lake effect snow showers were coming to an end across Door, Kewaunee and far southern sections of Marinette and Oconto Counties. Meanwhile, the next system approaches from the west later tonight. Snow should arrive at KRHI around 06z, KAUW/KCWA around 07z and then overspread the remainder of northern Wisconsin overnight. Still some uncertainty on the arrival of the snow south of highway 29 due to a great deal of dry air aloft. The latest HRRR did not have the snow arriving at KGRB until around 12z with KMTW a tad bit later. Snow will continue at times through the day as the system moves across. The snow could change over to freezing drizzle at times. MVFR CIGS will develop north and west of the Fox Valley this evening and continue overnight. MVFR CIGS may not arrive until Saturday afternoon at KMTW/KGRB/KATW. Precipitation is expected to linger into Saturday night. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....Kurimski LONG TERM......TDH AVIATION.......Eckberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
825 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 .UPDATE... ...Hazardous Beach and Boating Conditions this Weekend... Tonight...A small band of higher moisture associated with a front has pushed south of the area. Breezy northerly winds behind the front were bringing in lower dew point air, with readings in the upper 50s in the north/central and lower-mid 60s in the south. Low level winds will gradually become northeast overnight which will mute any further drying. A small band of showers has lingered just offshore southern sections near the Gulf Stream. The HRRR and GFS show the rain chances diminishing after midnight along the St. Lucie and Martin coast. A surge of northeast winds approaching northern sections late is shown pushing some Atlantic showers towards the Volusia and north Brevard coast. The current forecast looks good with only a few tweaks planned at this time. && .AVIATION... The persistent MVFR ceilings have broke up and just temporary VFR ceilings are expected the rest of the night. A surge of northeast winds will bring a chance of showers to the coast from KTIX-KDAB towards sunrise Sat. These chances will then spread inland and southward through the day with a few periods of MVFR. More notably, it will become windy across the area with northeast-east winds gusting to 25 knots. A few spots could have gusts to 30 knots associated with quick moving showers. && .MARINE... Tonight-Saturday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions have developed behind a cold front that was settling south of the waters. Northerly winds will become northeast overnight and a surge will sweep through the waters starting a little before sunrise in the north and shifting to the southern waters late in the afternoon. Speeds will be 20 to 25 knots behind the surge with gusts 30 to 35 knots possible in scattered quick moving showers. Seas 4-6 feet nearshore and 5-7 feet offshore will build to 8-10 feet on Sat except 10-12 feet offshore. These increased seas will take until late day to reach the southern waters. The current forecast which has a Small Craft Advisory in effect for all of the waters looks good and won`t be making any significant changes. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 6 PM EST Sunday for Coastal Volusia County-Indian River-Martin-Northern Brevard County-Southern Brevard County-St. Lucie. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20- 60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm. && $$ Lascody/Sedlock