Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/11/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
843 PM MST Fri Nov 10 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 828 PM MST Fri Nov 10 2017
There is increasing potential for fog tonight over portions of the
western Nebraska Panhandle. GOES-16 satellite imagery is currently
showing a broad/expanding area of low stratus from eastern CO into
northwest KS and southwest NE. Surface observations show generally
small T/Td spreads (less than 3F), along with a few pockets of low
visibility embedded w/in the stratus shield. This area of moisture
appears to be advancing quickly to the west, and the HRRR suggests
fog spreading into SNY by 06z with visibility under 1/2 mile. With
light southeasterly flow, locally dense fog is a concern from SNY-
AIA and possibly northwestward along the Platte River Valley given
moist up-valley flow into BFF. Will continue to monitor trends for
possible issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 124 PM MST Fri Nov 10 2017
Tonight...Continued dry tonight with lack of low and mid level
moisture, although do expect to see a fair amount of middle and high
level cloudiness making for a slightly more mild overnight than last
night.
Veterans Day...Fast moving and low amplitude shortwave trough aloft
moves overhead with enough moisture to produce scattered rain and
snow showers over the Northern Laramie, Snowy and Sierra Madre
Ranges with dry conditions elsewhere. Temperatures about the same as
today and have compromised between the NAM and GFS MOS maximums.
Saturday night...With ridging aloft and cool surface high pressure
to our east, producing less wind, expect a cooler night with better
radiational cooling.
Sunday...Ridging aloft continues with weak return southerly winds
limiting the warming trend and keeping temperatures about the same
as Saturday.
Sunday night...Surface lee troughing will aid in more mixing and
also with a moderating airmass to produce a slightly more mild night
than Saturday night.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 124 PM MST Fri Nov 10 2017
Main concern during the extended period will be the potential for
strong winds mid-week.
Current medium range models/ensembles in good agreement with upper
ridge along Rocky Mountain Front Range flattening as it translates
east across the central CONUS through Monday. Next Pacific upper
trough and cold front move ashore into the western CONUS by Monday
evening.
Rather mild and breezy, especially Monday prior to frontal passage
Monday with highs in the 60s east of the Laramie Range. Dry front
moves east across the CWA Tuesday, with cooler temperatures west of
the Laramie Range, and 55-65 degrees to the east. West to northwest
winds will be breezy Tuesday.
A period of stronger westerly winds develops late Wednesday through
Thursday with west-southwest 700mb winds increasing to 55-65 kt
across southeast WY. GFS 700/850mb Craig-Casper gradients likewise
increase to 75-90m after 12Z Thursday. 55-60 kt west-northwest 700mb
winds spread into western NE by Thursday evening. Will continue to
watch these trends as we could be dealing with a significant high
wind event during this time. Some Pacific moisture will accompany
the stronger cold front, with scattered snow showers over the
Snowy/Sierra Madres, and isolated rain showers over portions of
western NE.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 614 PM MST Fri Nov 10 2017
VFR prevails through the TAF period with BKN-OVC skies between 10k
and 20k feet AGL. Winds will increase across the southeast Wyoming
terminals by 18z Saturday, and continue through the afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 124 PM MST Fri Nov 10 2017
Mostly dry weather this week. Minimal concerns based on projected
humidities and winds.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
549 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Issued at 157 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017
Lake effect snow continues to push west over the lakeshore
counties this afternoon as it breaks apart. A dusting or up to an
inch of accumulation is possible from these snow bands, mainly
across Kewaunee and northern Manitowoc counties near the
lakeshore. These bands are expected to dissipate as they move
inland away from the moisture afforded by the lake and winds
change to a less favorable direction.
Attention then turns to an upper trough approaching the western
Great Lakes later tonight into Saturday. Although the mid level
dynamics are fairly modest, isentropic lift is fairly strong as
winds are almost perpendicular to the isentropic surface at 280
and 285K surfaces. Moisture should be deep enough for mainly snow
for most of the event, however as moisture gets scoured out in the
mid levels with the forcing shifting from north to south some
freezing drizzle is possible across north-central Wisconsin late
tonight into Saturday and across central Wisconsin on Saturday.
Given snowfall is expected before the freezing drizzle and the
freezing drizzle itself is expected to mainly occur during the
daytime hours the impact from this precipitation type is expected
to be minimal. Snowfall totals tonight and Saturday from this
snowfall event are expected to range from 1 to 3 inches across
north-central Wisconsin, to 1 to 2 inches across central, with a
few tenths or up to an inch across east-central Wisconsin.
Lows tonight are expected to range from the upper teens across the
north, with lower to middle 20s across the south. Highs Saturday
are expected to be in the upper 20s to around 30 across the north,
with around 30 in central and lower to middle 30s across east-
central Wisconsin.
.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday
Issued at 157 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017
Timing systems every 3 days or so in the northern stream flow
will be the primary issue.
A short wave and frontal system will depart the region Saturday
night to end the mixed precipitation across the area. H850 temps
would suggest mainly snow showers, but a mix possible in the
evening over east central Wisconsin before ending from west to
east.
Upper ridge and surface high then builds into the Northern Plains
and Great Lakes region Sunday into Monday for a dry and moderating
trend. The warm air advection turns more robust Monday night into
Tuesday with increasing and blustery south to southwest winds.
Arrival of the showers will depend on the rate of saturating the
air mass into Tuesday. In addition, the dry and cold air mass
initially may produce a mix at the onset before turning to rain
showers. Otherwise progs focusing the next chance for measurable
precipitation with the next northern stream short wave trough and
weak cold front passage toward the Tuesday night period.
After another high pressure system quickly drifts over Wednesday
into Thursday for return to drier conditions. Medium range progs
divert greatly on solutions late next week into the following
weekend with confidence in most parameters greatly dropping.
After a cold weekend...next weeks temps expected to rebound back
to closer to normal levels in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 542 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017
Lake effect snow showers were coming to an end across Door,
Kewaunee and far southern sections of Marinette and Oconto
Counties. Meanwhile, the next system approaches from the west
later tonight. Snow should arrive at KRHI around 06z, KAUW/KCWA
around 07z and then overspread the remainder of northern Wisconsin
overnight. Still some uncertainty on the arrival of the snow south
of highway 29 due to a great deal of dry air aloft. The latest
HRRR did not have the snow arriving at KGRB until around 12z with
KMTW a tad bit later. Snow will continue at times through the day
as the system moves across. The snow could change over to freezing
drizzle at times. MVFR CIGS will develop north and west of the Fox
Valley this evening and continue overnight. MVFR CIGS may not
arrive until Saturday afternoon at KMTW/KGRB/KATW. Precipitation
is expected to linger into Saturday night.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......Eckberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
825 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2017
.UPDATE...
...Hazardous Beach and Boating Conditions this Weekend...
Tonight...A small band of higher moisture associated with a front
has pushed south of the area. Breezy northerly winds behind the
front were bringing in lower dew point air, with readings in the
upper 50s in the north/central and lower-mid 60s in the south. Low
level winds will gradually become northeast overnight which will
mute any further drying.
A small band of showers has lingered just offshore southern sections
near the Gulf Stream. The HRRR and GFS show the rain chances
diminishing after midnight along the St. Lucie and Martin coast. A
surge of northeast winds approaching northern sections late is shown
pushing some Atlantic showers towards the Volusia and north Brevard
coast.
The current forecast looks good with only a few tweaks planned at
this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
The persistent MVFR ceilings have broke up and just temporary VFR
ceilings are expected the rest of the night. A surge of northeast
winds will bring a chance of showers to the coast from KTIX-KDAB
towards sunrise Sat. These chances will then spread inland and
southward through the day with a few periods of MVFR. More notably,
it will become windy across the area with northeast-east winds
gusting to 25 knots. A few spots could have gusts to 30 knots
associated with quick moving showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight-Saturday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions have
developed behind a cold front that was settling south of the waters.
Northerly winds will become northeast overnight and a surge will
sweep through the waters starting a little before sunrise in the
north and shifting to the southern waters late in the afternoon.
Speeds will be 20 to 25 knots behind the surge with gusts 30 to 35
knots possible in scattered quick moving showers. Seas 4-6 feet
nearshore and 5-7 feet offshore will build to 8-10 feet on Sat
except 10-12 feet offshore. These increased seas will take until
late day to reach the southern waters.
The current forecast which has a Small Craft Advisory in effect for
all of the waters looks good and won`t be making any significant
changes.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 6 PM EST Sunday for
Coastal Volusia County-Indian River-Martin-Northern Brevard
County-Southern Brevard County-St. Lucie.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for Flagler Beach to
Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20
nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for Flagler Beach to
Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County
Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.
&&
$$
Lascody/Sedlock