Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/10/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
556 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2017
.AVIATION...
DFW Metroplex TAF sites have all become VFR as of 6PM with a
swath of low stratus still affecting areas to the south. Waco on
the other hand remains socked into MVFR cigs which will be the
case through the overnight hours and into Friday morning. After
midnight, areas of fog are expected to develop mostly west of
I-35 where skies have cleared and winds will be light. While the
most significant vsby reductions are expected to be west of DFW
Metroplex airports, have included a tempo mention for MVFR vsby
conditions beginning around 12z at Metroplex TAF sites. Otherwise,
VFR conditions and east/southeast winds will prevail through
Friday. At Waco, conditions should finally improve to VFR around
midday, although VFR cigs may remain in place into the afternoon
hours.
-Stalley
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 329 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2017/
/Through Tonight/
Afternoon visible imagery indicates a slowly clearing
stratocumulus deck across a good chunk of North and Central TX.
This cloud deck appears to be associated with a plume of higher
low level moisture located around 925mb. This plume of moisture
will be important for tonight`s sensible weather elements across
the region.
For tonight---Low level clouds will be shunted westward as
easterly flow develops in response to low-level pressure falls to
the north. While this stratus deck should contract in areal
coverage, it appears most probable that far southwestern and
southern zones may remain mostly cloudy from this afternoon onward
into Friday morning. Winds will be light and out of the northeast
before becoming easterly towards sunset. For areas that
experience clearing, it`s probable that patchy fog will develop.
RAP forecast soundings do indicate a pretty favorable hydrolapse
for fog, especially near and north of the I-20 corridor and I
wouldn`t be surprised to see some areas of dense fog develop. For
now, will only mention this potential in graphics South of I-20
and west of HWY 281, it`s a little uncertain as to whether or not
fog will develop given the current satellite presentation. For
now, will extend the mention of patchy fog down here where low
level moisture remains the highest and to better match up with
surrounding offices. Outside of the fog, it should be a cool and
quiet night for most with temperatures in the upper 30s across
northwest zones to low to mid 40s elsewhere.
24-Bain
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 329 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2017/
/Friday through Wednesday/
Light winds and clear skies will support some continued fog across
parts of North Texas early Friday morning. Areas north and west of
the Metroplex will likely be the favored area for morning fog
given the clear skies and high near surface moisture content. This
fog should diminish through the late morning hours. Skies will
become mostly sunny by afternoon with highs in the 60s.
The upper pattern will remain fairly zonal into early next week.
With the surface high shifting to the east late Friday, southerly
winds will return. A strong shortwave trough will swing through
the northern Plains late on Saturday. As it does, a cold front
will slide southward into Oklahoma. Eventually, persistent
isentropic ascent will lead to increased cloudiness across the
region. The front may drift southward into the region late
Saturday night into Sunday. If it does, temperatures on Sunday
will need to be lowered by several degrees. Either way, areas of
light rain or drizzle may develop during this time with best
chances occurring during the day on Sunday.
Moisture never really gets scoured out and southerly flow returns
quickly early next week. Temperatures will warm slightly through
the week with bouts of morning clouds. A stronger cold front will
arrive late next week.
Dunn
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 42 63 48 63 57 / 0 0 0 5 10
Waco 43 64 49 68 58 / 0 0 0 5 10
Paris 40 62 41 60 51 / 0 0 0 5 10
Denton 40 62 46 64 54 / 0 0 0 5 10
McKinney 38 62 44 62 53 / 0 0 0 5 10
Dallas 45 63 49 63 57 / 0 0 0 5 10
Terrell 42 64 45 64 55 / 0 0 0 0 10
Corsicana 43 64 47 64 56 / 0 0 0 0 10
Temple 42 64 50 69 58 / 0 0 0 5 10
Mineral Wells 38 62 48 66 55 / 0 0 0 5 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
26/82
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
554 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 235 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2017
Hazardous Weather: None.
Aloft: Low-amplitude WNW flow was over the Cntrl Plns with an
approaching ridge that extended from MT-NM. This ridge will
deamplify and broaden as it crests over the CWA tonight. After
its axis passes Fri afternoon...the flow will become WSW.
Surface: The cold front that moved thru overnight extended from
the GtLakes thru MO into NM at 18Z. Strong 1036 mb high pres was
over the Nrn Plns. This high will gradually slide E into WI
tonight and the GtLakes tomorrow. Sfc winds will gradually veer
from NE-E-SE thru tonight and then S tomorrow.
Rest of this afternoon: Increasingly sunny as the thick
cirrostratus departs to the SE. It`s a cold day with temps in the
30s at most locations. ODX was still 29F at 19Z. Wind chills were
in the 20s.
Tonight: M/clear to start but the 06Z/12Z NAM and GFS as well as
the 12Z RGEM and RAP fcst stratus to develop over Wrn Neb/KS and
expand NE into the CWA. So becoming cldy from SW-NE. There is
significant bust potential in temps based on how quickly this
stratus invades. Temps S and W of the Tri-Cities were raised from
the prvs fcst and lowered N and E of the Tri-Cities where clds
will move in last.
After evaluating fcst soundings/cross sections from multiple
models...decided to remove frzg drzl from the fcst. Confidence is
high that cld bases will be at or above 3K ft...and drzl usually
occurs with CIGs below 1K ft.
Sat: Cldy and chilly. The bust potential does not end tonight.
There is significant disagreement between the last 2 runs of the
NAM/GFS on temps. It`s a bit puzzling that the GFS warms temps
into the 40s/50s while the NAM keeps temps jammed in the 30s. The
fcst reflects more of the NAM...but still have highs in the 40s
from Hwy 136 down into N-cntrl KS and those 40s could bust too
warm.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2017
Potentially Hazardous Weather: None currently envisioned.
Aloft: The upr low currently off the Pac NW will open up and move
inland tomorrow. The remnant trof will cross the CWA Sat night. A
ridge will follow Sun with WSW-W flow Mon-Wed. The last 2 runs of
the EC/GFS/GEM/UKMET are in excellent agreement that a low-
amplitude shortwave trof will move thru Tue.
Surface: a weak cool front will slide thru Sat associated with
the upr trof. WAA then develops until the next weak cool front
crosses the CWA Tue.
The bust potential (temps/clds) conts into Sat. The stratus Fri
will linger into Sat with lowering CIGs Fri night. This combined
with the approach of the shortwave trof should result in patchy
drzl Fri night into Sat. Drzl has been expanded over a larger
area. Our temps may be a little too cool Fri night...and way too
warm Sat...possibly by 10F is the NAM is right. The NAM can be
overdone with its low stratus at times though.
Stratus should clear Sat night.
Temps: cool Sat-Sun then turning near to above normal Mon-Wed.
Tue could be much above normal with widespread 60s.
Still no signs of significant precip.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday)
Issued at 549 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2017
The primary aviation concern will center around increasing low
level stratus clouds late tonight and especially Friday morning.
We could see MVFR ceilings beginning around dawn and then periods
of MVFR ceilings through the rest of the morning and early
afternoon. The wind will gradually shift from easterly this
evening, to southeast early Friday morning, to southerly by Friday
afternoon. The southerly winds could be a bit breezy at times
Friday afternoon.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Wesely
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
652 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1250 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2017
As an upper level system and strong cold front approach there
will be a low chance of some light rain showers into the evening,
mainly north of Route 6. The onslaught of very cold air will then
begin behind the front tonight. The very cold air will allow for
the development of lake effect snow showers across far northwest
Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan late tonight into early
Friday morning, but any minor accumulations should be confined to
the lakeshore areas. Low temperatures overnight will drop into
the upper teens to the lower 20s. Highs on Friday will only reach
into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 157 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2017
Cold front moving through the forecast area this afternoon but
latest KIWX radar loop showing just a few returns north of the CWA
so have cut back on POPs remainder of the afternoon as front
pushes through NE CWA. Coldest air of the season moving in behind
front will bring brief window for LES tonight. Limiting factor
continues to be fast zonal flow aloft will have winds quickly
veering from NW- N-NE and curtail residence time of LES band in
any one location. Certainly has favorable ingredients though with
5Kft inversion heights...impressive omega aligned with DGZ just
below the inversion...and suitable delta-T -15C to -20C. Latest
guidance severely cuts POPs and while latest HRRR and HRRRX
hinting that mesolow may push LES band over to LOT counties even
earlier...have trended back toward previous forecast tonight but
pushed POPs westward a little faster after 12Z. Strong CAA pattern
through the period will see lows tonight drop to near 20 while
highs Friday struggle to reach low 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 157 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2017
Water vapor imagery depicting strong upper low just off the
Pacific NW coast will weaken significantly as it comes onshore
Friday and quickly traverse western/mountain CONUS and provide
short wave energy that will affect our area for this weekend.
Surface reflection in the form of inverted trof will bring precip
chances back by Saturday night. Lows Saturday night near freezing
will bring an chance for snow and rain/snow mix overnight and into
Sunday morning before changing back to all rain by Sunday
afternoon as highs climb to 40-45F. High pressure builds back into
the region and bring a dry start to begin next week then next
system approaches mid week and brings precip back into the
forecast to end the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 652 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2017
VFR this period as chilly Canadian ridge builds ewd across the Great
Lakes. Fleeting lake response expected though as low veers rapidly
overnight in response to sfc ridge. Nonetheless will keep with an
abbreviated MVFR -shsn mention invof KSBN overnight.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Friday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Murphy
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...T
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
803 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2017
.UPDATE...Cold front moving SE across northeast FL
this evening...currently with scattered showers over
the coastal waters...and low cloudiness extending
northward behind the front. Low temp forecast looks
good. Have removed patchy fog...possible we could see
some light fog in our southern counties...but don`t
anticipate low visibilities...short-range ensemble
guidance have very low probabilities for reduced
visibilities. Low cloudiness will spread SE
during the night behind the front.
Some uncertainty as to when the low cloudiness will
clear out...looks likely early tomorrow for interior
se GA...but HRRR guidance keeps it in place along se
GA coast and much of ne FL through midday.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR CIGS expected at TAF sites through
early tomorrow morning. Some uncertainty as to timing
of clearing. Latest TAFs suggest gradual clearing
around midday Fri.
&&
.MARINE...No significant changes planned for next CWF
issuance. Will maintain SCEC for coastal waters Tonight...
with small craft advisory conditions developing Friday.
Rip Currents: Moderate risk expected Friday as NNE
winds increase, with high surface and a high risk of
rip currents expected from Friday night through at least
early Sunday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 49 68 42 62 / 10 0 0 0
SSI 54 65 55 64 / 30 0 10 10
JAX 54 68 55 68 / 20 0 10 10
SGJ 60 67 61 72 / 30 10 20 20
GNV 54 72 55 73 / 10 0 10 10
OCF 58 73 57 76 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 9 PM EST Sunday for
Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from
20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine
FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 9 AM EST Sunday for
Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL
out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St.
Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to
Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM.
&&
$$
Wolf/Hess/Elsenheimer
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
815 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2017
.UPDATE...
...Boating and Surf Conditions Deteriorate Friday then Become
Hazardous This Weekend...
Tonight...Shortwave trough moving off the Georgia coast will allow a
frontal boundary to settle steadily down the peninsula. With
mid/upper support pulling away, little frontal convergence and
nighttime stability, there is little chance for showers. The HRRR
model is only showing isolated-scattered showers over the southern
waters. Will only hold onto a low PoP along the immediate coast as
low level flow will be northerly with little onshore component.
The most noteworthy weather with this front tonight will be a
widespread low cloud deck behind it as the lower theta e air will
be shallow. These clouds should mainly affect areas from about
Cape Canaveral to Orlando northward. There will be enough boundary
layer flow to inhibit fog though. Ahead of the front in the south,
expect patchy fog, especially since recent satellite trends show
high level clouds diminishing and skies should become mostly clear
for a while.
&&
.AVIATION...
Don`t see anything substantive to change in the previous discussion
as the same basic scenario of a shallow front dropping down the
peninsula is supported by the latest guidance.
VFR through 05Z then stratus will spread south behind a weak cool
front. Prevailing MVFR/IFR CIGs are forecast to reach
DAB/LEE/SFB/MCO/TIX between 06Z-08Z and MLB/VRB between 10-12Z.
Patchy fog may develop over southern terminals ahead of the front
late tonight. MVFR CIGs look to persist most of Friday along the
coast with breezy Northerly flow and VFR CIGs (035 AGL) over the
interior.
&&
.MARINE...
Again, there is little change to the latest model guidance that
would warrant any significant changes, so the previous discussion
and forecast look good.
(Previous Discussion)
Tonight/Fri...Benign winds and seas this evening then north winds
increase behind a cool front as it pushes across the waters
overnight and Friday. North winds will increase 15-20 knots after
midnight over the Volusia waters and spread quickly south Friday
morning. Seas will respond quickly in the Gulf Stream building to 7
feet by late Friday morning so have raised a Small Craft Advisory
for the offshore waters of Volusia and Brevard (beyond 20 nm)
beginning at 10 am. Small Craft should exercise caution elsewhere
Friday morning. Then N/NE pressure gradient should support around 20
knots by late Friday over most of the waters at which point the
Advisory will expand for all marine zones at 4 pm.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 4 AM EST Monday for
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 4 AM EST Monday for
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.
&&
$$
Lascody/Sedlock
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
646 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 428 PM EST THU NOV 9 2017
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a deep trof extending from
Hudson Bay to the Upper Great Lakes with vigorous shortwave now
moving e of the area. With 850mb temps of -17 to -20C across Lake
Superior, LES is streaming off the lake into Upper MI under nw low-
level flow. Some +shsn have been noted thru the day, but well-
organized wind parallel bands have yet to develop. The more
persistent heaviest snow has been falling in Luce county downstream
of the streamline/preconditioning from Lake Nipigon. Coastal
convergence under nw flow has been supporting another area of
heavier snow into western Alger county. Away from these heavier snow
areas over the e, there have been some locations that have not seen
much snow at all. In particular, webcam at Seney shows only a
dusting of snow so far. Out w, a dominant band this morning with an
embedded mesolow supported heavier snow into portions of
Gogebic/Ontonagon counties. Report from White Pine early this aftn
indicated a foot of snow so far. Keweenaw did well with snowfall
last night and this morning. KMQT radar over the last hr or so is
showing a subtle increase in LES intensity and very slight rise in
cloud tops, somewhat surprising given the strong subsidence
occurring across the area in the wake of the shortwave.
Over the next 12hrs, 500mb heights will rise significantly, 200-250m
as trof exits and shortwave ridging approaches. Sfc high pres
associated with the ridging will reach western Lake Superior Fri
morning and will exit eastern Lake Superior mid to late aftn on Fri.
Continued subsidence will bring inversions down from around 10kft
now to around 7kft by 12z, and large scale flow will become more
anticyclonic. While this will lead to some weakening of LES, 850mb
temps of -20C or lower will keep decent LES going thru the night
with LES only ending when winds shift offshore with passage of sfc
high pres. DGZ is positioned in the lower part of the convective
layer to boost snow-to-water ratios. Key areas for hvy snow will be
downstream of Lake Nipigon preconditioning. As sfc high pres builds
toward the area and land breeze component strengthens off northern
Ontario, winds across Lake Superior will veer tonight, pushing the
bands tied to Lake Nipigon preconditioning westward toward Marquette
by 12z. In addition, current disorganized mdt/hvy LES bands into
western Alger county will also shift w. As these bands encounter
increasing convergence due to backed winds off the Huron Mtns, there
very well could be multiple transient heavy snow bands swinging w
across Alger county into eastern Marquette county as the night
progresses. Not out of the question for a few spots to see 10-12in
of snow tonight if the bands impact any location persistently. These
heavier snow bands will extend s into southern Schoolcraft county
and northern and eastern Delta county. Will need to watch eastern
Marquette county and the city of Marquette for the potential of a
period of hvy snow, especially late tonight/early Fri morning. BLSN
will continue to be an issue into the early evening and then for
much of the night in open areas near Lake Superior. No changes have
been made to headlines over the e half of the fcst area.
Out w, lowering of inversions sooner during the night and lack of
focused low-level convergence will support lighter snow
accumulations than to the e. Warnings across the western counties
have been dropped and replaced with advys.
Given flow across Lake Superior thru the night, clouds will likely
dominate the fcst area tonight, keeping temps from dropping
significantly. Lowest temps should be over the w half, well into the
interior. While fcst has temps down to around 5F above, could be blo
zero if skies clear out for a short time.
Lingering LES off Lake Superior will end w to e during the morning
to early aftn. As winds swing around to the se off Lake MI, a few
lake effect shsn may develop into Menominee/Delta counties late in
the day as 850mb temps will still be as low as -13C over northern
Lake MI.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 402 PM EST THU NOV 9 2017
Attention is on Fri night into Sat night when headline worthy
snowfall is possible over the eastern U.P.
Synoptic snowfall in southern winds will be enhanced by Lake
Michigan Fri night into Sat night. At this time, it appears a
dominant band will develop, but there is uncertainty with how
transient that band will be. Current thinking is that the band will
move into the area near the Delta/Schoolcraft County border then
gradually shift east. Some models are showing a quicker and more
steady shift to the east while others keep the band stationary
longer. The current forecast calls for 3-6" of snow E of a line from
the Stonington Peninsula to Munising, but remain aware that there is
potential for more or less depending on the behavior of the band.
Elsewhere, most locations should see an inch or less, with little to
no precip near Ironwood.
No real high-impact weather expected through the rest of the
forecast period, just warmer than normal temps and some rain
potential.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 646 PM EST THU NOV 9 2017
Cold air mass flowing across Lake Superior will continue to generate
lake effect shsn under n to nw winds until high pres passes across
the area Fri morning, resulting in winds become s to se. While KIWD
should see prevailing MVFR conditions and KCMX prevailing IFR,
conditions will be quite variable as is typical for lake effect.
KIWD should fluctuate btwn VFR and at times brief IFR. KCMX should
fluctuate btwn MVFR and at times brief LIFR due to more significant
blsn as winds gust to 30kt or more. At KSAW, conditions should
generally vary btwn MVFR and VFR this aftn as nw winds are less
favorable for lake effect shsn at that terminal. As winds veer more
northerly late tonight/early Fri morning, bringing more persistent
shsn, IFR conditions may develop at KSAW. Improvement will begin at
KIWD/KCMX tonight with conditions becoming VFR Fri morning.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 435 PM EST THU NOV 9 2017
As high pres approaches from the w and moves across Lake Superior
during Fri, winds will steadily diminish from w to e tonight and
Fri. Before that, ongoing gales will continue across central and
eastern Lake Superior thru this evening. As the high moves across
the lake, expect a period of winds blo 15kt. Winds will then quickly
ramp back up to 20-30kt for Friday night through much of Saturday as
the high departs and a low pres trof approaches. Gale force gusts to
35kt are possible late Friday night into Saturday morning. After the
trough passes, winds will fall back to under 20kt for Sunday into
Monday.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ004-
084.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for MIZ006-007-085.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for MIZ001-003-005.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Friday for
MIZ002-009-013-014.
Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for MIZ006-007.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning until midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight for
LSZ241>251-263>267.
Lake Michigan...
Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...Rolfson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
924 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2017
.UPDATE...
Increased expected coverage of fog southeast. Increased sky cover
this evening.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Main update this evening is to bump up the coverage of fog in the
southeast as the HRRR and now also the RAP has been increasing the
potential for fog there. The HRRR/RAP signal is not as strong in
the southwest, but will continue with areas of fog in Texas and
adjacent zones as cirrus will be clearing and higher dewpoints are
lurking just south of the area. Have also increased the cloud
cover in the grids this evening because of the widespread cirrus,
although that should be moving out overnight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 501 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2017/
AVIATION...
Light winds and VFR conditions expected through the evening across
all TAF sites. Expect to see MVFR conditions, both ceilings and
visibility, develop initially across western north Texas and then
spread across much of western Oklahoma after 08Z/09Z time frame.
Conditions should gradually improve between 15Z-18Z Friday,
becoming VFR at all sites by afternoon Friday.
30
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2017/
DISCUSSION...
A large area of cool high pressure centered over the Plains will
continue to be the dominant feature over the southern Plains for
another day or so. Light winds and more or less clear skies will
be the rule overnight, and once again there is a possibility of
fog, especially over the southwest quadrant of Oklahoma and our
Texas counties.
As southerly low-level flow begins to increase in advance of the
next storm system, weak isentropic lift and substantial moisture
will bring low (less than 15%) chances of (measurable) rain or
drizzle Friday and Saturday. A cold front will bump up rain
chances a bit for late Saturday and especially Sunday, and
generally unsettled weather will keep low PoPs in the forecast
for the remainder of the forecast over parts of the eastern half
of Oklahoma.
Through all this, temperatures will not change all that much on a
day-to-day basis, and will be reasonably close to the average for
this time of year.
CmS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 38 57 45 58 / 0 0 0 10
Hobart OK 37 55 48 63 / 0 0 10 10
Wichita Falls TX 41 59 48 67 / 0 0 0 10
Gage OK 32 52 45 66 / 0 0 10 10
Ponca City OK 33 56 45 56 / 0 0 0 10
Durant OK 38 62 42 61 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
952 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2017
.DISCUSSION...
The evening satellite imagery depicts an extensive but mostly thin
cirrus shield that continues to drop SE across the region from
TX/OK, ahead of a weak shortwave trough noted over Cntrl OK/NW TX,
with even some thickening of the cirrus evident over much of OK.
Despite this, 03Z temps have fallen off into the lower/mid 40s
areawide, as sfc ridging has built S to the Gulf coast. While the
latest runs of the HRRR do indicate some patchy FG developing
late over extreme SE OK/portions of extreme NE TX, the rather
dense cirrus over these areas should help negate this, although
very patchy FG can`t be ruled out elsewhere where the cirrus is
thinner, and 03Z temp/dewpoint depressions have fallen to 1-3
degrees already. However, will not include this in the zone update
given the potential influence in the cirrus. But did have to
update the forecast this evening to beef up sky grids to partly
cloudy over the Nrn half of the region per current trends. Also
made very minor tweaks to min temps, with most areas falling into
the upper 30s/lower 40s by daybreak Friday. Otherwise, the
remainder of the forecast is on track.
Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.
15
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 605 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2017/
AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex, a quiet evening with winds slacking to near
calm, but after a good day of drying out and a hearty T/Td spread,
fog overnight will not be as prolific as the freshly rained on
soil this morning. KLFK was the only site with guidance for any
fog and only light mist at 4SM. We will check new guidance for any
changes before next issuance. Otherwise increasing cirrus and low
clouds clearing out of E TX on NE flow with climb 10KTS backing
to NW 20-35KTS for flight levels. Next rain coming Sunday. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 41 67 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 41 67 40 69 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 37 63 37 61 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 39 64 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 37 64 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 43 65 45 67 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 41 66 43 68 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 43 68 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
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