Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/02/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
753 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passing northwest of the region will drag a warm front
across the North Country tonight into Thursday morning, followed by
a trailing cold front late Thursday night and Friday. Periods of
rain or showers are expected with both frontal passages, with a
dusting to perhaps 2 inches of snow on the higher elevations
tonight, mainly in the Adirondacks. High pressure will bring dry
weather to the region on Saturday, before wet weather returns for
Saturday night through Monday night as another stronger low passes
to our northwest.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 746 PM EDT Wednesday...The forecast remains in good shape
as we progress toward the 8 o`clock hour. Did massage pops with
latest HRRR model output which is capturing the current
evolution of precipitation quite well. This would suggest on and
off bouts of light rain into the overnight hours before larger
surge of steadier rainfall associated with additional shortwave
energy riding along the advancing warm front arrives after 400
am into the mid-late morning hours on Thursday. These are
essentially fine-scale tweaks with the overall forecast thought
process remaining largely unchanged. Have a great evening.
Prior discussion...
A warm front will be approaching from the southwest overnight
and passing north of the region Thursday. It will bring periods
of rain or showers to the north country tonight through Thursday
morning. A mix of rain and snow noted earlier in PA, but
thinking that by tonight any snow will be confined above 3000 ft
this eve as precipitation moves into the region. Whiteface and
Stratton were 30 degrees while Mt. Mansfield 34 as of 3 p.m. A
couple of inches of wet snow is possible on the summits through
midnight as freezing levels rise well above the summits and it
changes to all rain.
On Thursday as the warm front lifts north of the Canadian border,
showers will gradually diminish from south to north through the day
with temperatures rising into the mid 50s to around 60 in the
afternoon. Played the temps in the middle of the guidance with some
of the raw models suggesting 50s while some of the BC and MOS
suggesting as high as mid 60s in the Champlain Valley, but thinking
that it will end up a cloudy day on average. Winds will
markedly increase during the day as well, with gusts in the 20
to 30 mph range from the south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 405 PM EDT Wednesday...Most of Thursday night we`ll be in
the warm sector so it will be a breezy and mild night with
temperatures hovering in the mid 50s to around 60 all night. A
cold front will arrive in northern NY after midnight making its
way southeastward toward BTV after sunup on Friday. The front
will be accompanied by showers with the highest probabilities in
northern NY/VT 09-15z then decaying probabilities south as the
front move through the region. Still some mild temperatures
around Friday, mainly across VT where southern VT may reach the
upper 60s while northern NY only reaches the upper 50s. Skies
will be clearing Friday night with low temps in the upper 20s to
mid 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 405 PM EDT Wednesday...12z suite of guidance is in okay
agreement through Monday, but start to diverge Tuesday and that
spread is even larger by Wednesday. Translating, that means use
the forecast with caution after Monday, as it is bound to
change. Synoptically, the pattern across the eastern half of the
country is that of a fast and progressive nearly zonal pattern.
These types of patterns typically mean large timing errors in
models the further out in time you look. That is certainly the
case today from the guidance I have looked at. I did start with
the general model blend, but made a few adjustments here and
there. Notes on each of the days are below:
Saturday: still looking dry as a weak ridge of high pressure moves
overhead. 850mb temperatures will range either side of 0C, which is
pretty close to where we should be. That suggests high temperatures
will also be pretty close to where we should be (mid 40s to around
50F). Clouds will increase late in the day, as the next system moves
closer. Should have precipitation breaking out overnight as well.
It`s possible there could be a little bit of snow at high elevations
(above 2000ft) at the start, but warm air advection will mean it
changes to rain everywhere.
Sunday: Warm air advection all day as southerly winds strengthen.
Looks like periods of rain as well. Models indicate a fairly good
low/mid level southwesterly jet develops late in the day and
overnight - pushing 50kts at 850mph. Precipitation will keep
boundary layer mixing minimized, but still could get a little breezy
in the St Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. Future forecasts will need
to fine tune those details. Temperatures will rise into the upper
50s by late day, and then stay there, or even continue to rise
slightly Sunday night.
Monday: 12z GFS and ECMWF are both consistent in showing a cold
front push through the area during the day. Should be a
noticeable temperature drop after the front as 850mb
temperatures go from about +10C at 12z Monday to +1 to -2C by
00z Tuesday. Expect it to be a little breezy with and just after
the front, probably more so than the guidance blend indicates
right now. Precipitation chances decrease significantly Monday
night as high pressure builds in.
Tuesday: 12z guidance has trended much drier both days, but model
uncertainty is such that I still kept some mention of roughly 15-25%
PoPs. GFS stalls the front just to our south, and by late Tuesday is
already showing some moisture return spreading clouds north.
Meanwhile, the ECMWF also shows some moisture spreading across
during the day thanks to a weak upper level shortwave interacting
with some lake effect streamers. Temperatures should be around
normal in either case.
Wednesday: Guidance ranges from the GFS cranking up a low to our
southwest as an upper trough energizes the frontal boundary to our
south and spreading precipitation into the region on strengthening
southeast flow. Meanwhile the ECMWF is gives us a dry and seasonably
cool fall day as it keeps the frontal boundary further south, and
has a much suppressed upper trough, so cyclogenesis is much
weaker. At this point, I`m tending to lean toward the ECMWF, so
I did lower the PoPs from the basic model blend, but did not go
completely dry.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...VFR conditions overall currently with
KMSS/KSLK MVFR as a warm front lifts into the region from
southwest to northeast along with some light rain showers.
Eventually all locations will drop to MVFR and could be some
IFR especially KMSS/KSLK early Thu as the warm front moves
through. The front moves north of the region by the 18Z Thu and
any showers by then will be scattered and mainly to the north.
South winds near 10 knots through tonight but picking up to 10
to 20 kts Thursday morning especially at BTV. KMSS winds will be
variable to east through about 14-18z then becoming SW as the
warm front moves by.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance SHSN.
Sunday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Monday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 405 PM...Looking at south winds 10 to 20 knots tonight as
pressure gradient increases and air temps cooler than the 56
degree water making for a well mixed boundary layer over the
lake. By Thursday morning south winds could be blowing 15 to 25
knots gusting up to 30 knots with waves up to 6 feet on the
broad lake. Rain showers will also arrive tonight lasting into
Thu morning with visibilities lowering to 5 miles at times.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sisson
NEAR TERM...JMG/Sisson
SHORT TERM...Sisson
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...Sisson/Verasamy
MARINE...Sisson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1016 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front south of the Mason Dixon line will crawl slowly
north overnight and Tomorrow. Thursday will be milder with a
chance of showers primarily across the far northwestern part of
the state. A weak front will move through the area Friday with
a new front expected to approach by the end of the weekend as
our pattern of fast moving, relatively weak weather systems
remains in place.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
The meso-anal shows the strong cold air damming pattern
persisting as of 10PM with the warm front still south of the MD
border. The RAP advertises a slow erosion of the cold air over
southern portions of the region as we get further into the
overnight hours, especially toward Thursday morning. The day
will likely still dawn rather gray as the warm front will not
exactly be racing north. The RAP shows it will be trying to move
into the face of a strong ageostrophic wind component out of
the NNE even through mid morning.
The best chance of rain will remain over my NRN zones where an
additional tenth or two of rain is likely through Thursday
morning.
If there is some clearing, it will likely be confined to far
SWRN areas. Light NE to SE wind and high moisture could support
patchy fog across portions of central and southern PA.
Temps should be steady or slowly rising overnight, and
widespread 40s (to around 50F SE) are expected by sunrise Thurs.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday will likely stay mostly cloudy to cloudy (at least
across the NW half of the state) in the form of widespread
alto cu. Southern portions of the CWA could break out of the
clouds and get close to 70F.
Will stay slightly on the cool side of MOS and NBM guidance for
the rest of the area on Thursday, though, as morning fog and
clouds may be very stubborn to burn off in the light flow/cool
air damming near the sfc.
It should still get up to or just above normals with the SE
about 10F above normal. Showers will linger along the nrn
border, but most of the area will be dry. Pressure field lowers
over the Upper Great Lakes Thursday as a rather meager plume of
moisture flows north from the Gulf. The fast zonal flow aloft
will then help to shove a cold front in from the west later this
week.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*Mild spell with above average temperatures into next week
Model and ensemble guidance is in pretty good agreement with
sensible weather features early in the period. A weak cold front
and accompanying band of light rain will traverse the area on
Friday, followed by a period of dry wx Friday night into early
Saturday as high pressure migrates eastward across southern
Canada and wedges down the east-side of the Appalachian
Mountains.
Heading later in the weekend and through next week, the mean
southwesterly flow pattern of Pacific origin will offer a steady
dose of less predictable and potentially moderate precipitation
focusing impulses that eject east-northeast from an amplified
trough over the Western U.S. While timing is still in question,
it looks like a shot of warm advection pcpn returns by Sunday
followed by another, more defined cold front with rain on Monday.
The later periods remain highly uncertain as model spread and
continuity has been less than stellar to say the least. Large
variations are evident in the last few runs of the GFS and
ECMWF, so leaned toward a blended ensemble approach until the
guidance provides better clustered and more reasonable
forecasts.
After a chilly start to November with cold rain and light snow,
the big story will be temperatures as above-average warmth
makes a comeback into next week.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Periods of light rain and subsequent IFR/LIFR cigs and vsbys
will persist overnight across the northwest mtns - KBFD. Mainly
MVFR Cigs and Vsbys will persist across the central mtns and
Susq Valley where showers will be lesser in coverage.
Any clearing across the SE half of PA late overnight and into
early Thursday could lead to patchy 1SM Fog given the expected
light SE to Southerly sfc wind.
Included LLWS through at least the mid morning hours Thursday for
all TAF sites, though winds aloft will be strongest over the NW
part of PA.
Overall a pattern that favors mild conditions and times
wet periods after today into next week.
Outlook...
Thu...AM light rain/low cigs/fog possible.
Fri...Showers/reduced cigs possible KBFD/KJST.
Sat...Mostly cloudy but dry for much of the day,
then periods of rain/low cigs possible west late in the day,
and at night elsewhere.
Sun and Monday...Periods of rain. Low cigs possible.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Williamsport set it`s second warmest Oct with an avg temp of
59.0F. The 59.4F from 2007 is number one.
Harrisburg had it`s 4th warmest Oct. 2007 was also the warmest
October for Harrisburg.
It was a wet October. Williamsport had 6.70 inches of rain,
which was the 10th wettest on record. 1990 holds the record
with 9.60 inches of rain. Almost half the rain fell on the
29th. The 3.33 inches that fell on the 29th set a new record
for that date.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Watson/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Gartner
CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
757 PM MDT Wed Nov 1 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 755 PM MDT Wed Nov 1 2017
Winds are finally starting to come down at this time. Still
getting a few gusts above 60 mph out by Arlington on I-80 and will
continue the warning for this area and the south Laramie Range
another couple hours. Will continue monitoring observations and
will cancel when needed. Updates sent.
UPDATE Issued at 456 PM MDT Wed Nov 1 2017
Still getting some pretty strong wind gusts reported along and
west of the Laramie range late this afternoon. Had a gust to 63
mph at Rawlins about 45 minutes ago and they are still going
strong around arlington. Zone 112 (Saratoga) also hitting at this
time. Craig to Casper 700mb gradients still above 65mtrs through
06Z this evening. Went ahead and extended the High Wind Warnings
through the evening hours and will wait to see what the trends are
later this evening. Updates have been sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 302 PM MDT Wed Nov 1 2017
Strong winds starting to slacken over the CWA this afternoon as
the gradient begins to relax. Winds should drop below high wind
levels by this evening but may have to watch the wind-prone areas
as they might hold close into the evening. Otherwise weak front
will drop south across the plains this evening. Some
frontogenetical forcing should allow for a band of snow to develop
and move across northern parts of the CWA overnight and should
see about 2-3 inches of snow in that area before it tapers off
Thursday morning. The front will hang up against the mtns into
Thursday morning then it should erode eastward during the day. It
will be cool Thursday over the Panhandle. Mainly dry through
Thursday night with the surface boundary continuing to slip
eastward across the Panhandle.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM MDT Wed Nov 1 2017
A generally mild and somewhat unsettled weather pattern across the
area this period under west-southwesterly flow aloft. Several
disturbances will pass across the region bringing periods of rain
and snow showers mainly next week with the main upper trough
passing by on Tuesday. Most of the pcpn should be over western
parts of the CWA. Warmest temps will; be saturday then cooling to
around seasonal averages Sunday onward.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 456 PM MDT Wed Nov 1 2017
Strong winds through sunset, then easing some though not too much.
Winds expected to again pick up again tomorrow. Latest HRRR also
showing lowering ceilings this evening across the northern
Nebraska Panhandle, so did trend flight conditions down to IFR at
KCDR and KAIA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 302 PM MDT Wed Nov 1 2017
Strong winds around the southeast Wyoming mtns will diminish late
this afternoon into this evening while humidities rise. Less wind
expected over the next few days with mild temperatures. This will
keep fire weather concerns low.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for WYZ110-116-117.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT Thursday for WYZ101-102.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
906 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 907 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017
The warm front continues to lift north at this hour, taking the bulk
of the measurable rain with it. We`ll stay under an isentropic lift
component overnight as a 40-45 knot low level jet persists.
Therefore, can`t rule out a few isolated to widely scattered
showers, but think the bulk of any precipitation will be drizzle.
So, have updated the forecast to include drizzle and/or small
pockets of measurable rain chances. This is overall still in line
with the previous forecast, just a bit lower on Pops. Temps should
continue their slow trend upwards through the overnight as the
steady warm advection component continues. Did want to note the the
next best chance for measurable rain will be with a secondary surge
in the low level jet over south central and east central KY
overnight. Did keep scattered coverage of pops in those areas
between Midnight and 4 AM EDT.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017
A warm front is draped across central KY this afternoon, with a
widespread area of showers spreading ENE north of the WK/BG
parkways. There`s a notable temp gradient and wind shift across the
frontal boundary. Temperatures were still in the mid/upper 40s in
southern IN, with low 60s in southern KY.
Stout WAA will continue this afternoon and evening, with max temps
occurring later than usual. Likewise, lows tonight will technically
occur this evening, with a non-diurnal trend overnight. As the warm
front surges north of the area tonight, coverage of showers will be
spotty at best. Likely keying in on a strengthening LLJ, the past
several HRRR runs have an area of scattered showers moving up
through southern KY and into the Bluegrass late tonight/early
Thursday. But many areas will stay dry overnight, with overcast and
breezy conditions. Overnight temps will hover in the 50s to around
60 degrees.
As the aforementioned frontal boundary pushes well north on
Thursday, drier air advects in aloft and moisture depth diminishes
quite a bit. The vast majority of the day looks dry, which will
allow temperatures to surge into the lower 70s.
Shortwave energy swings into the Lower Mississippi Valley Thursday
night as a surface cold front pushes back in from the northwest.
Rain showers are likely once again, along with a chance for thunder.
It`ll be a mild night, with many areas staying in the 60s.
.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017
Friday - Sunday...
Cold front will push through the forecast area on Friday, so expect
lower highs than Thursday and more of a gradient from NW to SE.
There is a slight chance for additional thunderstorms, particularly
in the Lake Cumberland region in the afternoon. We`ll dry out Friday
night, with lows dropping back into the 50s.
Upper ridging is forecast to build over the southern US and Mexico
over the weekend as yet another low pressure system develops in the
Plains and tracks northeast into the Great Lakes. Scattered rain
chances will return Saturday with a warm front lifting back through,
but moisture availability remains questionable. Highs will likely
range from the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Deep southwest flow will send temperatures well above normal on
Sunday as the strong mid-latitude cyclone deepens over the Great
Lakes. Generally dry weather is expected in the warm sector, with
highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Sunday night - Tuesday...
A strong cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms in the
Sunday night-Monday time frame, with somewhat cooler weather
arriving for Tuesday. Yet another wave of low pressure may keep the
weather unsettled into the middle of next week.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 750 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017
A warm front currently sits across southern IN, and will continue to
lift north through much of this cycle, before approaching the region
again as a cold front later Thursday night. The bulk of the light
rain has lifted north of the TAF sites at this hour, however expect
that isolated to widely scattered light showers will be possible
through the overnight. Didn`t put any vis restrictions in, and will
only mention VCSH to account. Otherwise, the main concern will be
ceilings. The sites are mostly VFR at the moment, however expect
conditions to sink back into the MVFR range toward dawn, then lower
into the low MVFR or IFR range as we move through the day on
Thursday. At HNB, MVFR should persist for much of the overnight,
with IFR likely shortly after dawn.
With a 45-50 knot low level jet also in place overnight, expect LLWS
to be a concern below 2000 feet. Seeing a good 30-40 degree
directional component as well as 30-40 knots of speed shear so the
LLWS mention seems warranted.
One final note deals with a steady 10 to 15 mph southerly wind, that
will likely become gusty on Thursday. Most gusts should range
between 20 and 25 mph.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Update...BJS
Short Term...EBW
Long Term...EBW
Aviation...BJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
813 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 403 PM EDT WED NOV 1 2017
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show broadly cyclonic flow
across the CONUS as a trof dominates N America btwn a ridge over the
North Atlantic and a very strong ridge over the N Pacific which has
500mb height anomalies around 400m. In the cyclonic flow,
disorganized shortwave energy is tracking across the northern
Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley this aftn. WAA/isentropic ascent
ahead of this energy is leading to an area of -sn which is spreading
across MN/nw WI. To the e, developing southerly flow up Lake MI has
brought lake effect -shra into the eastern fcst area.
As shortwave energy continues eastward tonight, a period of decent
isentropic ascent spreads from w to e across the area. 290K sfc
(roughly 700-750mb) shows mixing ratios of around 2.5-3g/kg avbl,
which suggests 3-4 inches of snow for a 6 to perhaps as much as 9hr
period of ascent. Over roughly the w half, to the w of a Marquette
to Iron Mtn line, wetbulb zero heights suggest ptype becoming all
snow with an increase in elevation. With snow-to-water ratios
probably around 10 to 1 for areas where pcpn is snow, conversion of
model consensus qpf would put snow accumulations into a similar
range at the high end. Overall, it`s borderline for an advy,
especially since snow accumulations will be falling outside of the
more impactful commute times. However, since the snow will be wet,
the slushy accumulations on roadways will make for especially
slippery travel conditions. In addition, qpf from the hourly
RAP/HRRR runs today are more aligned with some of the higher qpf
totals from 12z model runs, which would lend support for snow
accumulations a little more firmly into advy range. So, opted for a
winter wx advy for Dickinson County/Marquette County westward. To
the e, pcpn should be mostly rain, with miminimal if any snow
accumulation. As pcpn diminishes from the w overnight, loss of mid
level moisture and thus ice crystals in the moist layer may support
a little -dz/-fzdz over the w. If -fzdz does occur, it likely won`t
be an issue due to the snow accumulation that occurs beforehand.
On Thu, some patchy -ra should linger over the e until sfc trof
passes. In addition, upslope flow over the western fcst area may
lead to some -shra. Expect highs in the upper 30s/lwr 40s w to mid
40s e.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT WED NOV 1 2017
Nam shows a closed 500 mb low in the Pacific NW 00z Fri with a
shortwave over the upper Great Lakes. The trough and closed low in
the Pacific NW moves into the northern Rockies this forecast period.
850-500 mb q-vector convergence and deeper moisture move in fri
night and Sat. Isentropic lift on I285K surfaces along with moisture
moves into the area 06z Sat through 00z Sun. Could see 1-3 inches of
snow out of this system along with some freezing rain mixed in Fri
night.
In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a broad 500 mb trough in
the Pacific NW and northern Rockies 12z Sun. A shortwave ejects out
of this trough into the upper Great lakes 12z Mon with another
trough moving through 12z Tue. Differences show up by 12z Wed with
the GFS having a broad 500 mb ridge over the Rockies and plains and
troughing on both coasts and ECMWF is much colder with a trough in
the plains. ECMWF is much more amplified than the GFS at that time.
Continues to look at or slightly below normal for temperatures this
forecast period along with showery pcpn as lake effect pcpn is
possible.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 807 PM EDT WED NOV 1 2017
A disturbance moving in from the northern Plains has spread
light snow into KIWD early this evening, but initially conditions
have been VFR. As sn/ra overspread the area tonight, expect
conditions to fall to IFR at all terminals. Shortest duration of
IFR conditions will be at KIWD due to a downslope component to the
wind. After mixed pcpn ends, MVFR conditions will then prevail
thru much of Thursday at all sites. &&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 416 PM EDT WED NOV 1 2017
Ahead of an approaching trof, southerly winds will gust into the 20-
30kt range across Lake Superior tonight, strongest over the e half.
Once the trof passes, expect westerly winds generally at 15-25kt on
Thu. Winds will increase further Thu night, up to 30kt mainly over
eastern Lake Superior, as pres gradient tightens in advance of high
pres building into s central Canada. Winds will then diminish
Fri/Fri night, down to mostly under 15kt for a time, as the high
moves closer. Over the weekend, expect increasing winds again as the
next low pres trof approaches on Sat and passes on Sun. Winds up to
30kt will occur ahead of the trof, then gales behind the trof later
Sun.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ Thursday for
MIZ001-003>005-010-011-084.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Thursday for
MIZ002-009.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...Rolfson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
845 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2017
.DISCUSSION...
Looking aloft, a strong northern branch of the westerlies extends
from the Pac NW across the central Plains and into the Northeast.
A weaker southern branch lies across the far southern portion of
the CONUS. At the surface, low pressure was centered over the
central High Plains, with a warm front extending east from the low
across northern OK and then northeast into the Ozarks and central
MO. Another warm front, separating a modified CP airmass from a
more moisture rich Gulf airmass, was located from southeast TX up
into the Arklatex.
The forecast area is sandwiched between the 2 fronts. The latest
hi-res models develop widespread dense fog across KS to the north
of the warm front. The RAP, which was more bullish with low clouds
similar to the NAM, has now backed off and is more like the HRRR.
The HRRR maintain low cloud and fog only over the ridge tops of
the Boston and Ouachita Mountains and shows very little outside of
that. The southern warm front is not making much progress to the
northwest, with the better surge of moisture lifting north over LA
and into southern AR. This is likely due to strongly veered 850mb
and gradually veering 925mb flow. A subtle shortwave in the
northern stream has now passed by to the north, and this has
caused a response in the low level kinematic fields.
As far as the forecast is concerned, overall not much in the way
of change is needed. Higher cloud cover was kept in the far east
and this appears reasonable. Forecast lows are within range of the
latest short term guidance.
Lacy
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 631 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2017/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A couple of problematic TAF sites this evening with MVFR ceilings
trying to build back into KFYV and into KMLC. Also could see some
issues at the other western Arkansas sites with MVFR ceilings.
Northeast Oklahoma TAF sites are expected to remain VFR through the period.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 316 PM CDT Wed Nov 1 2017/
DISCUSSION...
Low clouds have begun to mix out across portions of eastern
Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas this afternoon with gusty
south winds. Clearing line will likely stall early this evening
and should begin to shift back westward as low level moisture
continues to increase.
Unseasonably warm/breezy conditions are expected over much of the
area on Thursday ahead of approaching upper wave quickly moving
out of the southern Rockies. Cold front, in association with
upper feature, is forecast to move into northeast Oklahoma by
late afternoon before stalling Thursday night into Friday as
surface wave develops along boundary. Still a slight chance for
isolated thunderstorms development across far southeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas with surface heating Friday afternoon.
Most of the region will likely remain capped with only a few
scattered showers possible.
Weak surface low will lift northeast Friday night into Saturday
with low level moisture surging back north. Warming trend expected
Saturday and Sunday, under zonal flow aloft, with high temperatures
10 to 15 degrees above normal both days.
Another cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma Sunday
evening with scattered showers/thunderstorms possible across NE
OK/NW AR. Operational models are a little different concerning
where front stalls with the ECMWF furthest south across southeast
Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas on Monday. Temperature forecast
therefore remains more uncertain than normal and will depend on
eventual location of boundary.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 58 81 54 76 / 0 0 0 20
FSM 57 81 62 79 / 10 0 20 20
MLC 61 85 59 79 / 0 0 10 10
BVO 52 79 49 68 / 0 0 0 20
FYV 56 75 56 73 / 10 0 20 20
BYV 59 76 58 68 / 10 10 20 20
MKO 57 82 57 77 / 0 0 10 20
MIO 58 77 55 70 / 0 0 10 20
F10 60 84 55 76 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 61 85 65 82 / 0 0 20 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....30