Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/31/17
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
916 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight.
A cold front...currently located just north of the Hill
Country...is prog to slowly shift south overnight with the western
extent sliding down the Rio Grande by sunrise. Before then, weak
SE llvl flow this evening should eventually become more ENE by
late in the night across all but the immediate coastal areas as
the boundary pushes south across the Brush Country.
Tuesday.
Boundary is prog to stall across the Brush Country in the morning
and then slowly crawl eastward through the day and transition
into a strengthening inverted sfc trough. How far east the
boundary makes it in the afternoon is up in the air. GFS keeps the
boundary across the Brush Country for most of the day...the ECMWF
is even farther west...the NAM farther east...and the RAP takes
it offshore...with the NMM/TTU WRF/ARW/NSSL WRF all over the place
as well. Where the boundary ends up will have a significant
impact on how much precip the area sees during the day.
Areas to the east of the boundary will have the greatest chances
of rain Tuesday as WAA redevelops as weak low pressure may try to
develop along the boundary. The GFS and NAM both want to increase
PWATs to 1.9 to 2" across the coastal counties by late in the day
which is about +2 Sigma for this time of year.
Strengthening/transitioning troughing will aid in shower
development in the morning (especially Coastal Plains) with a
possible increase in coverage occurring in the afternoon as a mid
level s/w trough advects east across TX and as an 80kt H25 jet
nudges east across S Central TX. Although best dynamics will be to
the north of S TX...sufficient large scale lift combined with
some daytime heating and a steep llvl boundary should result in
convective development in the afternoon. Best chances of
convection will again be to the east of the aforementioned
boundary (Coastal Plains/Counties) where SBCAPE values of around
1500 j/kg are prog to exist. I am a little concerned about a brief
spin-up/tornado being possible in the afternoon across the
coastal counties. Although llvl shear values are prog to be weak
for most of the day, shear values should strengthen some during
the mid to late afternoon hours along with a greater veering of
winds aloft...and associated increase in curvature in
hodographs. Take these factors and add in an increasingly moist
airmass and you can often get a weak tornado or two occurring
across the coastal counties of South Texas. An isolated strong
wind gust may also occur with any storms that develop. Small hail
will be possible...but high freezing and WBZ levels should
preclude much if any large hail.
Farther west...areas of drizzle/light rain or possibly a shower
can be expected to the west of the boundary where isentropic lift
should develop.
Boundary should continue to shift east Tuesday evening and night
with rain chances eventually shifting E/NE. Any tornado threat
should diminish in the early evening as instability wanes...but an
isolated strong wind gust threat may briefly persist.
Overall changes to inherited forecast were to adjust POPs some to
account for timing/placement of best/greatest precip chances for
Tuesday afternoon/evening. Also adjusted wind speeds some to nudge
the front/boundary a little closer to the coast by late in the
day Tuesday. Also lowered min temps by a couple of degrees for
inland areas tonight as some area are already at previously
forecast lows.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 66 79 66 80 70 / 20 70 80 40 10
Victoria 61 78 63 81 68 / 20 60 80 40 10
Laredo 63 72 61 81 66 / 10 40 30 10 0
Alice 64 79 64 83 68 / 10 60 70 20 10
Rockport 67 78 68 79 72 / 20 70 80 50 10
Cotulla 60 73 58 82 65 / 10 40 40 10 10
Kingsville 65 80 65 82 70 / 10 70 70 20 10
Navy Corpus 70 79 69 78 74 / 20 70 80 50 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
HART/79...UPDATE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
857 PM MDT Mon Oct 30 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM MDT Mon Oct 30 2017
Updated this evening and tonight to include areas of fog across
the southern Laramie Range between Laramie and Cheyenne. Current
webcams show these locations in and out of fog over the past hour,
with similar conditions expected through early Tuesday morning. In
addition, high res models are now showing a band of light
snowfall over the I-80 corridor from Elk Mountain/Saratoga area
eastward into Cheyenne and the southern NE panhandle late tonight
and Tuesday morning. This is a bit further north than previous
forecasts which showed this snowfall mainly across Colorado. HRRR
and nam show similar solutions, so decided to increase POP along
and south of I-80 tonight. If this band of snow does develop this
far north, will have to closely monitor snowfall rates since slick
roadways are possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 134 PM MDT Mon Oct 30 2017
Mostly clear night expected tonight as surface high pressure
slides just to our east. Winds will die especially over the
Panhandle where optimal radiational cooling will take place.
Temperatures will fall into the upper single digits to lower teens
from Alliance to Chadron overnight. Weak southerly return flow
will set up early Tuesday which will allow some lower cloud cover
to occur roughly from Laramie to Sidney and should limit temps in
these areas from bottoming out.
After a mostly sunny and warmer day on Tuesday, things get much
more active again starting Tuesday night and lasting through
Wednesday. 140kt NW`ly upper jet dives south into northern Wyoming
Tuesday night. Associated shortwave energy will amplify over the
northern plains on Wednesday morning. A 994 mb low will form over
eastern MT on Tuesday night and pressure falls associated with
this developing low and significant lee troughing will tighten low
level gradients significantly. CAG-CPR gradients are quite
impressive, peaking near 91 meters per the NAM on Wednesday
morning. Additionally, forecast soundings show winds as high as 75
kt down to 3000ft AGL by late Tuesday night in and around the
Laramie Range. Issued a High Wind Watch for the wind prone areas
of SE Wyoming starting Tuesday evening and lasting through
Wednesday. Based on the impressive gradients, subsidence in the
right entrance region of the upper jet, and 700 mb winds between
65-75kt, think wind gusts of 80 mph not out of the realm of
possibility in the gap areas. For elevations down to around
5000ft, issued a high wind watch for Wednesday as well. Forecast
soundings show most places mixing to at least 5000ft AGL during
the afternoon which should be plenty high enough to tap into the
very fast low level flow.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 134 PM MDT Mon Oct 30 2017
Gradients will slowly weaken on Wednesday night as a cold front
sags slowly south into our northern counties. Some differences in
timing of the front and just how far south it comes. Should the
front hang up to the north for a longer time, could see the wind
event continue a bit longer. Weak shortwave energy will track east
just to our north through Thursday night in fast zonal flow aloft.
Lots of timing/placement differences in regards to individual
waves. For now, think the best chance for a period of light snow
will be over our northern counties, roughly north of a line from
Douglas to Chadron. At this time, not expecting significant
accumulations.
Upper flow turns SW on Friday as significant troughing develops
over the NW US. The weekend looks unsettled with the potential for
a couple of windy days and possibly some mountain snow.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through Tuesday afternoon)
VFR conditions expected for most locations tonight. South to
southeasterly flow will develop tonight around KLAR, KCYS, and KSNY
after 06z, resulting in some lower CIGS between 06z and 14z early
Tuesday morning for these locations. MVFR/near MVFR conditions are
expected with brief IFR CIGS possible, especially at KCYS and KSNY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 134 PM MDT Mon Oct 30 2017
It will be dry and windy through Wednesday along with a gradual
warming trend. RH values will remain 20 percent or higher on
Tuesday but there may be some elevated conditions on Wednesday
afternoon in the immediate lee of the Laramie Range. A weak cold
front will cool temps and raise RH values by Thursday.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
for WYZ106-110-116-117.
High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
afternoon for WYZ101-104-105-107-109-115-118-119.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...DEL
LONG TERM...DEL
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...DEL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
657 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017
.UPDATE...
00Z Aviation Update Below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions under clear skies prevail early this evening. A cold
front just north of the region early this evening will enter portions
of the Rio Grande and Hill Country 02Z-04Z and to the I-35 corridor
roughly around 06Z. A wind shift to the N around 5-10 kts will
initially occur and then stengthen slightly Tuesday morning. Behind
the front isentropic upglide will develop across South Central Texas
overnight in response to an approaching mid and upper level low.
As a result stratus will develop over the frontal airmass 06Z-09Z
from south to north.
There are some differences between the GFS, NAM12 and HRRR with
strength of upglide and how low the moistening and stratus develop.
Experimental and operational runs of the HRRR are now indicating some
IFR ceilings possible along the escarpment near SAT along with
patchy -RA by 12Z with lower end MVFR ceilings now elsewhere, and is
also support by NAM12 forecast soundings. The GFS is still indicating
higher end MVFR ceilings and less in the way of patchy -RA. Have
trended the forecast toward the lower end MVFR ceilings, but not
quiet as low as the NAM12/HRRR at the moment. Later Tuesday afternoon
and evening elevated SHRAs and isolated TSTMs will be possible.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Main weather focus is centered on the increasing rain chances for
Halloween (Tuesday) afternoon and evening. Showers and a few isolated
thunderstorms could occur during the afternoon and into the
evening/overnight hours along and east of the U.S. 281 corridor and
especially along and east of I-35. While no weather hazards are
expected, with many outdoor planned activities, caution is advised as
some thunderstorms and pockets of moderate rain could make certain
activities more vulnerable to impact.
Current water vapor and RAP analysis depict dry air over the region
with a modestly strong shortwave trough over southern California and
a long-wave trough across the Great Lakes. The surface high pressure
system in the Gulf of Mexico is aiding low-level south flow with the
initial hint of moisture return to the area. However, this south
flow will be short lived as the trough across the Great Lakes region
will shift a cold front into the area overnight. The temperature and
dewpoint gradient will increase right over the region (frontogenesis)
early Tuesday morning. Cooler, denser air will filter south through
the day Tuesday yielding abundant cloud cover and cooler conditions.
Given the shallow nature of the front, the 925-850mb flow remains
south to southwest yielding isentropic upglide lift. Greater
saturation of the low levels coupled with this lift looks to best
align by Tuesday afternoon. With limited upright instability, general
showers are mostly expected during the afternoon. However, as
evening approaches, greater amounts of dynamic lift will overspread
the region as the shortwave, now over CA, swings across Texas 24-30
hours from now. The combination of the upglide plus the dynamic lift
could result in a few pockets of moderate showers and isolated
thunderstorms along and east of U.S. 281 halloween evening. Have
placed the highest rain chances 50-80% along and east of the I-35
corridor during this time frame.
As the shortwave trough passes through Texas by early Wednesday and
with lift decreasing, shower coverage will reduce. The front will
initially slide south of the region Tuesday but by Wednesday slide
back north as a warm front, allowing for moist and warmer air to
return.
LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
No large highlights in the long-term outside the above normal
temperatures expected through the late week and weekend with limited
to no rain chances expected through Monday. Some high temperature
records could be challenged late week as we return to a warm pattern.
The front will shift back north over the region Wednesday and
dissipate as near H5 zonal flow occurs across south-central Texas.
Dewpoints are projected across multi-model guidance to increase back
into the 60s by Thursday. A briskly moving shortwave will traverse
Texas and act to sharpen a temperature/dewpoint gradient Thursday but
sounding analysis shows a stout cap in place and likely should keep
showers/storms at bay across the region.
For Friday through the weekend, a weak sub-tropical H5 ridge will
develop over north Mexico into south Texas and help aid south to
southwest mid-level flow. This warm pattern will drive temperatures
up to near record levels in the upper 80s to low 90s. A pattern
change looks to be on the horizon early to mid next week but models
are not fully in agreement on front or trough strength.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 53 66 53 81 64 / 20 50 70 10 -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 52 68 53 80 63 / 20 50 70 10 -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 53 69 54 81 62 / 20 50 70 10 -
Burnet Muni Airport 48 58 48 81 60 / 10 50 50 - -
Del Rio Intl Airport 52 63 49 81 58 / - 40 10 - -
Georgetown Muni Airport 50 63 52 80 62 / 20 50 70 10 -
Hondo Muni Airport 52 70 53 83 59 / 10 50 50 - -
San Marcos Muni Airport 52 69 54 81 62 / 20 50 70 10 -
La Grange - Fayette Regional 55 71 57 80 65 / 20 50 80 10 10
San Antonio Intl Airport 55 69 56 83 63 / 20 50 60 - -
Stinson Muni Airport 56 71 56 82 63 / 20 50 60 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Mesoscale/Aviation...Runyen
Synoptic/Grids...05
Public Service/Data Collection...YB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
919 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017
.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Expect mostly clear skies overnight with low temperatures mainly in
the low to mid 40s. The current forecast is in good shape with no
changes needed. /27/
Prior discussion below:
Tonight and Tuesday...
Latest RAP and satellite analysis has a longwave trough over the
Northern Plains through New England with an associated low centered
over southeast Canada. The ArkLaMiss remains beneath southern stream
zonal flow aloft with a closed cold core upper-level low over the
Desert Southwest. At the surface, a dry and weak cold front was
analyzed over central Arkansas and was slowly making its way
southeast towards the CWA. This front is progged to enter the Delta
around 6z and then stall in the vicinity of the I-20 corridor before
slowly lifting back north during the day on Tuesday. Calm winds,
clear skies, and large dewpoint depressions ahead of the front will
allow for efficient radiational cooling with cold air advection
behind the front across the Delta. This will allow overnight min
temps to drop into the low to mid 40s across much of the region.
On Tuesday, while the northern stream remains amplified with
cyclonic wave breaking over eastern Canada and anticyclonic wave
breaking over the northeast Pacific, the ArkLaMiss will continue to
remain entrenched beneath the zonal southern stream flow. The
aforementioned upper-level low over the Desert Southwest will become
an open shortwave trough as it quickly propagates through Central
Texas towards the area, however precip chances will remain west of
the region through the day on Tuesday. The forecast will be centered
around the high temps as the stalled front hangs up along or just
north of I-20 and cloud cover fills in from the southwest across the
Delta. This setup will allow for a very noticeable temperature
gradient across the CWA with highs in the low to mid 60s on the
north side of the front/Hwy 82 corridor while much warmer temps in
the low to mid 70s will be common place along and south of I-20. /TW/
Wednesday through the weekend:
A shortwave in Texas will begin to shift eastward overnight Tuesday
into Wednesday forced by an upper jet streak moving quickly through
the South. This disturbance will bring showers into the CWA early
Wednesday. Low level flow out of the south will be gusty and
dewpoints will be on the increase going into the afternoon hours.
The Euro shows an area of focused convection just south of the Gulf
Coast in Louisiana which cuts off a lot of the energy moving into
the southern parts of the CWA. This in turn may limit the stability
of our atmosphere and just leave us with showers with this system.
Although, thunder should not be ruled out quite yet. As the
shortwave becomes elongated and dissipates into Thursday, rain
chances begin to wane. Going into Friday, another shortwave begins
to affect the CWA. Overall, the latter half of this week will have a
couple rounds of rainfall. This should help at least a little bit
with the drought status and ongoing dry conditions. Temperatures in
this period will be warm and highs will be near 80 through the
weekend. With anomalous low level warmth, temps may even creep into
the mid 80s if conditions prove ideal. The humidity will also be
high too with PWs peaking near 1.5" on Thursday and remaining above
an inch through the weekend. /10/
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. A dry cold
front will stall over the area through Tuesday, resulting in
somewhat breezier northerly winds over the northwestern half of
the area, especially at GLH. /DL/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 46 74 54 72 / 0 0 20 63
Meridian 44 74 51 72 / 0 0 3 39
Vicksburg 45 70 53 72 / 0 0 33 68
Hattiesburg 47 76 54 75 / 0 0 4 26
Natchez 47 72 56 73 / 0 0 26 58
Greenville 44 63 50 69 / 0 0 44 67
Greenwood 43 66 50 69 / 0 0 36 61
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1023 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017
Models having hard time dealing with sc deck over northern
portions of forecast area as well as mid cloud deck across the
south. Adjusted sky cover for the overnight hours as well as
temps. Min temps to be a bit warmer than previously forecast due
to the increased cloud cover.
Byrd
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017
Frontogenetical band that produced light rain over the area continues
to weaken and move southeast this afternoon. Lower atmosphere is
drying out, so any remaining precipitation is likely just sprinkles.
The RAP continues to show the demise of this band through the
afternoon and early evening, so will keep with the dry forecast.
Latest GOES-16 imagery is also showing that the mid and high clouds
are slowly thinning with the loss of mid level forcing, so will go
with a clearing trend tonight. While west-northwest winds will stay
up tonight, the clearing skies will set up another cold night with
lows falling into the mid-upper 20s except in the St. Louis metro
area.
A surface high will move across the area tomorrow bringing mainly
light winds. After a mainly sunny start, mid-high clouds will
stream by afternoon ahead of southern stream system. With the cold
start and the clouds moving back in, tomorrow`s highs should be
cooler than today`s.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Next Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017
A short wave and accompanying low level WAA will bring a threat of
rain to mainly parts of southeast MO and southern IL Tuesday night
into Wednesday. A brief rain/snow mix is not entirely out of the
question on the northern fringe of the precipitation shield as
evaporative cooling comes into play. A pair of low pressure systems
will form in the plains Wednesday night. A cold front with the
southern low will track south ahead of the attendant cold front to
north central Oklahoma, while the northern low and cold front will
approach central Missouri by early Thursday morning. The cold front
will push into southeast Missouri and southwestern Illinois and
stall with scattered showers possible due to upper level
disturbances overriding the boundary through Thursday. The
boundary will then begin to lift northward as a warm front on
Friday.
There are timing and placement issues between the ECMWF and GFS with
regards to just how far north the warm front moves north of
Interstate 70. Afterwards both the GFS and ECMWF display timing
differences on how fast the front pushes through the region on
Monday with showers and thunderstorms Sunday Night-Monday.
Temperatures will begin continue to trend to above normal seasonal
values this weekend into early next week.
Kelly
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017
Surface ridge to slowly build in. In the meantime, VFR skies to
clear out and west to northwest winds to diminish. Winds to back
to the west to southwest by midday on Tuesday.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
Surface ridge to slowly build in. In the meantime, VFR skies to
clear out and northwest winds to diminish. Winds to back to the
west by midday on Tuesday.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
735 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 356 PM EDT MON OCT 30 2017
...Lake effect snow increases this evening...
Upper low has settled over Lk Superior. 995mb sfc low is over
eastern Lk Superior while much stronger 970mb low is lifting north
over Quebec. Weaker shortwaves sliding on southern edge of upper low
has supported light rain/snow showers over much of Upper Michigan
today. Based on recent runs of HRRR and other guidance, expect low
on eastern Lk Superior to slide east toward stronger low by early
this evening. This shifting of the low will allow a strong sfc
trough currently over northern Lk Superior to sweep south across
Keweenaw as early as 23z/7 pm ET and then into west and ncntrl Upper
Michigan 01z-04z/9pm-12am ET. Expect a brief period of heavy lake
enhanced snow as the trough moves through. Vsby could be down to
less than 1/4sm as this occurs. Snow amounts may push 1-2 inches in
brief time. Due to lingering warm air near sfc, greatest snow accum
will occur over higher terrain but even some slushy accums will also
occur at lower elevations. Once the trough moves through, north
winds could gust over 20 mph but don`t think the blowing snow will
be big issue as sfc temps are still kind of marginal.
North flow lake enhanced snow will increase overnight for favored
west and north central higher terrain. Not a lot of large scale lift
through the night for enhancement, but deep moisture to 10kft and
sufficient over water instability with h85 temps down to -7c to -10c
(Lk Superior water temps around 7-8c) will favor moderate to heavy
lake enhanced snow overnight, especially west U.P. Continued the
winter weather advy for lake effect snow for much of the west and
north central. Also added Alger into the advy as western portions
could get into some heavier snow overnight tonight. Total snow
amounts by late Tue morning most areas in the advy should at least
be 3-5 inches but isolated amounts could be higher over far west
higher terrain. Away from the lake effect areas could be some light
snow showers late evening/early overnight, but limited large scale
forcing should quickly focus the better snow shower chances closer
to lake effect areas near Lk Superior. On Tue, lingering higher
chances for lake effect for NW flow areas of west and ncntrl, but
even that should end mid to late aftn as winds back W to SW on
northern edge of high pressure diving into the cntrl Plains.
Mostly cloudy and chilly day for most on Tue with low to mid 30s
and possibly a 40F degree reading at MNM.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 333 PM EDT MON OCT 30 2017
Nam shows a trough over the upper Mississippi river valley 00z Wed
which remains over the upper Great Lakes through 00z Fri. Nam shows
some deeper moisture and 850-500 mb q-vector convergence moving
through the area wed afternoon through Thu. Best chances for pcpn
look to be wed afternoon and wed night.
In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough and closed low
in the Pacific NW 12z Fri with zonal flow across the upper Great
Lakes. This trough digs into the western U.S. 12z Sat with zonal
flow staying over the area. Broad troughing moves into the Rockies
12z Sun which remains into 12z Mon. A shortwave does move into the
Canadian prairies 12z Mon with some colder air that moves into the
area later Monday. Temperatures look to stay near normal this
forecast period and it is cold enough for some lake effect pcpn.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 727 PM EDT MON OCT 30 2017
Westerly winds will favor mainly VFR conditions at KSAW into early
this evneing, even though there could be some MVFR conditions
occasionally as rain/snow showers begin to develop. A sfc trough
sagging southward across Lake Superior will bring a brief period
of heavier snow, with conditions down to LIFR, along with winds
shifting to the north and becoming gusty, initially at KIWD and
KCMX and then shifting eastward into KSAW by late evening. Behind
the trough into Tuesday morning, expect lake effect snow showers
to continue with general IFR vsby and MVFR cigs. The worst
conditions still look to be at IWD and CMX as winds becoming more
NW is not as favorable for lower conditions at SAW due to the
downsloping nature of the wind. There will be a brief window late
in the evening that a more northerly wind may drop ceilings and
visibilities, right along the trough, but condtions should then
steadily improve at KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 356 PM EDT MON OCT 30 2017
Winds will veer from WNW to N and increase to 20 to 30 knots this
evening as a cold front/trough drops south across the lake. Winds
will remain between 20 to 30 knots through much of the week.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for MIZ006.
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ004-005.
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Tuesday for
MIZ002-003-009-084.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...JLA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
256 PM MDT Mon Oct 30 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM MDT Mon Oct 30 2017
This afternoon low stratus continues to cover the southeast plains
and evening up into the upper Arkansas River valley. Satellite
shows increasing high level clouds acrs western portions of the
forecast area. There`s not much in the way of pcpn this afternoon
over the lower elevations east of the mtns, although some locations
in and near the mtns are likely seeing some light pcpn.
Late tonight and thru early afternoon Tue, an upper level weather
system will move east-southeast acrs the state. Also tonight,
favorable jet dynamics is expected to play a role. This evening
pcpn is expected to begin increasing acrs southern CO. The models
continue to show banded pcpn and the latest GFS and NAM are in
fairly good agreement with the location of a band stretching from
western Saguache and northern Mineral counties, eastward acrs the nrn
Sangres and then eastward acrs southern Pueblo county, Otero and
Bent counties. On the other hand, the HRRR does not show this band.
In the late night hours and early Tue morning, the models show high
probability of snow along the Continental Divide and along the
Sangres (mainly northern portions of the Sangres). There may also
end up being a band of pcpn in the late night hours over southern El
Paso and northern Pueblo counties, and over Crowley and Kiowa
counties. At this time, models show little in the way of snow
accumulation at the lower elevations, but the higher elevations are
still expected to get several inches, and the current Winter Wx
Advisory still looks warranted, and will not make changes.
Tue, pcpn is forecast to decrease/end over the eastern areas thru
the morning hours, while snow continues along the Continental
Divide. As the upper disturbance moves out of the area in the
afternoon, pcpn will also mostly end over western areas. In the
afternoon there could just be some isolated lingering light pcpn
over the higher peaks. Temps acrs the southeast plains should be
much warmer than today, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s
over El Paso county, and in the 50s over the rest of the southeast
plains. The high valley locations should have high mostly in the
50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM MDT Mon Oct 30 2017
Tuesday night through Thursday...Save for a few lingering snow
showers along the Continental Divide Tues eve, look for dry
conditions and gradual warming as the upper trough moves out. Brisk
northwest flow Wed will transition to a more relaxed westerly flow
for Thu. Expect max temps in the 50s to around 60F for the high
valleys, and mid 60s to mid 70s for the plains.
Friday through Monday...Long range models continue to show the upper
flow strengthening and becoming more southwesterly over the weekend,
as a strong upper low pressure system rotates over the Pacific NW.
Expect isolated snow along the Continental Divide and especially the
central mts over the weekend. Temps will warm into the upper 50s to
around 60F for the high valleys, and mid 60s to mid 70s for the
eastern plains. Sunday night a shortwave is forecast to cross the
northern Rockies, pushing a cold front down into Colorado overnight.
This will cool temps across the forecast area by 5 to 10 degrees for
Monday, with highs in the 50s for the high valleys, and upper 50s to
mid 60s for the plains. Moore
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 256 PM MDT Mon Oct 30 2017
KCOS will probably have MVFR MVFR ceilings/vsby tonight through
midmorning Tue. However, there will be chances of snow through this
period, and conditions could be IFR at times. VFR conditions should
return for Tue afternoon.
KPUB should have low VFR ceilings into the evening, but ceilings are
expected to lower into the MVFR category later this evening and
there will then be chances for snow into Tue morning. Snow could at
times reduce ceilings/vsby into the IFR category. VFR conditions
should return for late Tue morning and thru the afternoon.
KALS is expected to have VFR conditions thru at least this evening.
However, this evening pcpn chances are expected to increase, with
chances for pcpn into Tue morning. Ceilings will lower tonight and
if snow falls tonight/Tue morning, ceilings/vsby could lower into
the MVFR category or even into the IFR category at times.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT
Tuesday for COZ060-066-068-073-075-080-082.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28