Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/20/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
159 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance over Arizona will move across New
Mexico this evening, bringing scattered thunderstorms to the area
this evening and overnight. A few storms may be strong to severe
with hail and strong winds. Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will
prevail on Friday, with temperatures slowly cooling off Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures will come up a little bit on Monday, but
a backdoor cold front will bring temperatures back down to near
normal Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
One vigorous shortwave tough is moving out towards the NM Eastern
Plains/TX Panhandle, another over Arizona is incoming, and in-
between, a weak little vort lobe is stretched out over the Black
Range and parts of the Gila, and is helping focus some scattered
thunderstorms over the Black Range westward to the Upper Mimbres
Valley. SE flow of around 10 knots at the Hillsboro and Winston
mesonet stations suggests upslope flow is also a factor. RAP13
analysis shows significant CIN over central Sierra County, and
these storms have not had much luck moving east off the higher
terrain just yet. HRRR suggests these storms will slowly drift
east over the next few hours, but additional development over
Grant County seems likely as well.
Elsewhere, clearing skies over much of southern NM is allowing
instability to slowly increase ahead of the incoming shortwave
trough over Arizona. Various mesoscale models indicate late
afternoon storms developing over SW NM in the 21-00z time frame,
moving quickly to the east and reaching the Rio Grande Valley in
the evening, then Otero/Hudspeth Counties later in the evening
(mostly before midnight). Moderate instability, low wet bulb zero
heights, and steep mid-level lapse rates indicate the potential
for large hail, and high LCL with inverted-V profile suggests
strong wind potential as well. With the exception of this
terrain-anchored/back-building early activity in the Gila, storm
motion with the later convection should mitigate flash flood risk.
Could see some patchy fog in the Gila and Sacramento Mountains in
the wake of thunderstorms late tonight into early tomorrow
morning. Fog in the Gila will likely favor valleys that receive
precip (best candidates being the Upper Gila, Sapillo Creek, and
Upper Mimbres).
Friday looks to stay dry as zonal flow takes over, and a deeper
trough swings across the northern and central Rockies. Lee
troughing will promote breezy SW winds and warmer temperatures
(mid/upper-80s lowlands, a solid 10 degrees above climo).
Shortwave trough riding the base of the deeper trough to the north
will move across northern NM early Sat, dragging a weak Pacific
front in its wake. Winds will shift to the west Saturday, then NW
on Sunday, bringing cooler temperatures (at or slightly below
normal) back into the area.
Dry conditions will persist into next week, with a backdoor cold
front bringing cooler temperatures back again Tuesday and
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid 20/00Z-21/00Z...
Scattered to numerous VRB25G45KT 1-3SM TSRA BKN040-060 will be
ongoing at beginning of period, mainly east of divide with greatest
coverage over Sacramento Mts. Storms will progress eastward and out
of area by 12Z. Otherwise expect SCT-BKN080-100 BKN150-200 through
12Z then skies becoming FEW-SCT100-120. Winds will be SE to NE AOB
12KTS except near storms east of divide with generally W to SW winds
west of divide through 15Z. After 15Z winds shift around to the W
to SW at 10-20G30KTS across region.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers and thunderstorms expected through the night, especially
eastern zones as upper disturbance moves through. Some storms may
become strong to severe with hail and strong winds. On back side of
disturbance, winds will be shifting around to the west to southwest
at 10-20 mph and bring in much drier air through early next week.
Minimum relative humidities will be falling back into the teens by
Saturday with gusty winds which could bring some areas close to
critical conditions. Near to slightly above average temperatures
will continue next week with lighter winds and dry conditions. Vent
rates will be very good to excellent next couple of days before
falling off into the poor to fair categories Sunday and Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 61 87 62 81 / 50 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 57 85 58 80 / 40 0 0 0
Las Cruces 53 84 53 78 / 50 0 0 0
Alamogordo 55 81 54 78 / 80 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 42 62 41 57 / 80 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 56 81 53 76 / 60 0 0 0
Silver City 48 75 46 70 / 30 0 0 0
Deming 52 84 50 79 / 30 0 0 0
Lordsburg 52 83 49 76 / 20 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 62 84 60 78 / 40 0 0 0
Dell City 55 88 56 84 / 50 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 59 89 60 84 / 40 0 0 0
Loma Linda 56 81 57 75 / 50 0 0 0
Fabens 56 88 58 82 / 40 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 59 85 59 79 / 40 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 58 82 57 78 / 60 0 0 0
Jornada Range 54 81 50 77 / 70 0 0 0
Hatch 53 84 53 79 / 60 0 0 0
Columbus 54 85 54 79 / 30 0 0 0
Orogrande 57 83 56 79 / 70 0 0 0
Mayhill 46 70 47 66 / 80 0 0 0
Mescalero 45 71 45 67 / 80 0 0 0
Timberon 43 68 44 64 / 80 0 0 0
Winston 40 73 37 69 / 50 0 0 0
Hillsboro 50 80 48 76 / 40 0 0 0
Spaceport 50 82 50 78 / 70 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 38 75 34 73 / 30 0 0 0
Hurley 44 78 44 72 / 30 0 0 0
Cliff 41 80 36 77 / 30 0 0 0
Mule Creek 40 77 38 75 / 20 0 0 0
Faywood 47 80 47 75 / 30 0 0 0
Animas 54 86 51 79 / 10 0 0 0
Hachita 50 85 49 80 / 20 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 54 85 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 53 81 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
25-Hardiman / 26-Grzywacz
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
943 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017
.UPDATE...Broken waves of coastal showers shifted southward this
evening, and was recently focused from St. Augustine southward
toward Flagler Beach. Updated the rain chances along these coasts
based on recent radar trends and short term HRRR guidance which
initialized well, and showed the strongest low level convergence
tonight focused across these counties, with some inland shower
progression toward Palatka and the Ocala National Forest with
gradual erosion as precip treks farther inland. Dry conditions
are expected across SE GA and most of NE Florida.
Breezy east winds will continue along the coast tonight, while
inland winds will decouple and have gone calm across parts of
inland SE GA as high pressure strengthens over the region from the
north. Dry air that mixed down over the area today lowered dew
pts in the low/mid 50s across inland SE GA from Douglas toward
Hazlehurst, and expect these locations will easily drop into the
low 50s for low temperatures tomorrow morning. Normally cooler
locations could reach the upper 40s across inland SE GA. There
could be some localized fog develop as well due to less wind
compared to recent mornings.
Farther south and east toward the Atlantic coast and the remainder
of NE Florida, elevated east winds and passing clouds will prevent
significant fog formation and keep temperatures more mild with
lows ranging from the 60s inland to near 70 along the Atlantic
coast.
&&
.AVIATION...Restrictions to MVFR possible tonight across NE
Florida terminals as onshore ENE flow prevails and shunts
stratocumulus clouds with bases generally between 1.5-2.5 kft
inland. Highest probabilities per the SREF were indicated at SGJ
through the night where there is also a chance of passing showers.
Persistent onshore flow will continue overnight, with gusts 15-20
mph at times along the coast at SGJ. Prevailing VFR expected
Friday with low rain chance confined after daybreak to SGJ and
possibly GNV, but confidence too low to include in TAFs at this
time.
&&
.MARINE...Advisory conditions continued for both near and offshore
legs with evening wind reports gradually decreasing as high
pressure builds in from the north and relaxes the local pressure
gradient. Grays Reef recently reported 16 kts with combined seas
of 5 ft while the Fernandina Beach buoy reported combined seas of
6 ft last observation within 20 NM of the coast. Trended the wind
forecast down to 20 kts this evening, with speeds falling to 15-20
kts after midnight. Seas will remain elevated in the 5-7 ft range
nearshore tonight, but will likely subside enough to fall below
advisory levels Friday based on the latest forecast. The outer
water are expected to maintain advisory level seas into the
weekend.
Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents will continue through
Friday due to persistent onshore flow.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...Water levels along the local Atlantic coast were
subsiding with the passage of the New Moon and gradually weakening
onshore flow. Recent high tide crested to Minor to Action stage
along the NE FLorida coast, thus will maintain Coastal Flood
Advisory tonight for coastal locations. The St. Johns River basin
continue to crest between Minor to barely Moderate levels near
downtown JAX, with higher tidal levels well into Moderate flooding
southward toward Palatka around high tide. Will continue with the
Coastal Flood Warning for the St. Johns basin, which will likely
need to be extended into at least the first part of the weekend
for the basin.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 54 82 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 66 79 71 81 / 10 0 10 10
JAX 64 82 69 83 / 10 10 10 10
SGJ 71 81 71 82 / 30 20 10 20
GNV 64 84 65 85 / 10 20 0 10
OCF 66 86 66 87 / 10 20 0 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Duval-
Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.
Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM EDT Friday for Clay-Coastal
Duval-Flagler-Inland Duval-Putnam-St. Johns.
GA...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Camden-
Coastal Glynn.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for Waters from
Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for Coastal waters
from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
Beach FL out 20 NM.
&&
$$
Enyedi/Zibura/McGinnis
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
851 PM PDT Thu Oct 19 2017
.SYNOPSIS...A weak cold front will continue to move through the
region overnight, producing widespread rainfall. Rainfall will
mostly be light except locally moderate in the North Bay
Mountains and locally elsewhere in the hills. Along with
precipitation, expect cooler temperatures and brisk onshore winds
through Friday. Dry weather will return by mid morning Friday and
dry weather is expected through the remainder of the forecast
period. A warming trend will begin over the weekend and continue
into early next week. Temperatures are forecast to be well above
average through most of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...As of 8:50 PM PDT Thursday...Light rain began to
spread into the North Bay around mid afternoon and has since
developed over nearly all of Sonoma and Marin counties as well as
across portions of the San Francisco Peninsula and the East Bay.
Rain totals thus far (as of 8 pm) have mostly been less than a
tenth of an inch, although a couple of spots in the North Bay have
picked up between a quarter and a third of an inch, including
Mount Tamalpais and Mill Valley. Rainfall so far has been
associated with an area of warm advection in advance of the main
cold-frontal rain band which is still offshore. Rain rates will
likely increase somewhat later this evening as the primary rain
band moves through. The latest HRRR shows this band moving through
the North Bay between 10 pm and midnight, through the rest of the
SF Bay Area between midnight and 3 am, and through the Monterey
Bay Area between 2 and 5 am. Additional rainfall from this system
overnight is expected to range from a tenth to a quarter of an
inch except as much as an additional half inch in the Sonoma
county hills and locally elsewhere in the coastal hills and East
Bay Hills. Less than a tenth of an inch is expected in southern
and eastern inland valleys.
This system is moving somewhat slower than previously forecast and
so we may see some isolated showers linger for a few hours past
sunrise on Friday. Otherwise, expect clearing skies on Friday with
cool temperatures and locally brisk northwest winds.
A warming trend will get underway over the upcoming weekend as an
upper ridge begins to build over California and onshore flow
gradually weakens. Much warmer temperatures are then forecast
early in the work week as the upper ridge strengthens along the
West Coast and light offshore flow develops. On Monday and Tuesday
expect widespread high temperatures in the 80s to around 90, with
these warm temperatures developing not only inland, but in
coastal areas as well. Slight cooling is projected for Wednesday,
mainly near the coast, as the ridge temporarily weakens.
Earlier model runs indicated cooling during the second half of
next week. But the latest GFS and ECMWF now both show renewed
strengthening of the upper ridge late next week which will mean
continued warm and dry weather.
&&
.AVIATION...As of 5:15 PM PDT Thursday...For 00z Tafs. Cigs are
beginning to lower as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
MVFR cigs of 1000 ft are being reported in the North Bay with
light rain and IFR vsbys of 2 SM. MVFR conditions are expected to
spread across the Bay Area with periods of light rain and wet
runways expected after 03z this evening as the front moves across
the area. Light to Moderate southwesterly winds will continue
through this evening ahead of the front with winds anticipated to
veer to the west and become temporarily gusty around the time of
FROPA. Gusts to 30 kt possible.
Overall forecast confidence: moderate
Vicinity of KSFO.... MVFR cigs currently being reported with
light rain and MVFR vsbys anticipated after 03z this evening.
Moderate southwesterly winds will veer to the west with FROPA.
Gusty conditions are also expected with FROPA. Wet runways
expected tonight with improving conditions expected by morning.
LLWS also remains a possibility with FROPA (light at surface
gusting to 25-30mph at 2000ft AGL).
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR cigs will gradually to lower to IFR
around 700 ft around 04z-06z tonight. Light to moderate west to
southwesterly winds anticipated to continue through tonight. Light
rain will accompany FROPA. Wet runways expected tonight with
improving conditions expected by morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...As of 5:55 PM PDT Thursday...Cooling occurred
today as onshore flow increased ahead of an approaching cold
front and widespread cloud cover began to overspread the area.
Relative humidity values increased significantly as well,
especially across the North Bay Hills. By late Thursday afternoon
light rain had begun to fall across the North Bay. Expect light
rain to gradually spread south across the remainder of the
district Thursday night. Rainfall amounts will mostly be a quarter
of an inch or less, except locally more than a half inch in the
North Bay Mountains. Wetting rains are most likely across the
North Bay and locally in the Santa Cruz Mountains. Rainfall should
end in most areas by Friday morning. Friday will be a cool day
with brisk northwest winds.
A warming trend will get underway over the upcoming weekend as a
high pressure ridge begins to build over California. This ridge
will strengthen into early next week and result in warm and dry
conditions districtwide from Monday through Wednesday. Will need
to be wary of possible gusty offshore winds in the hills beginning
late in the weekend and continuing into Monday night.
&&
.MARINE...as of 05:00 PM PDT Thursday...A cold front will pass
over the region later this evening, bringing the first rain of
the wet season, a wind shift, and small craft criteria winds to
the waters, with occasional gusts up to or exceeding 30 mph. A
very robust northwest, long period, large swell train will arrive
late this afternoon and through the evening, generating large
waves and hazardous seas through at least Saturday. Operators of
small crafts are urged to use extreme caution if out at sea over
the next several days.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tngt...High Surf Advisory...Entire coast from Sonoma County
south to Monterey County.
SCA...Mry Bay from 9 PM
SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm from 9 PM
SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm from 9 PM
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm from 9 PM
SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 9 PM
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm from 9 PM
SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
SCA...Rough Bar Advisory for SF Bar from 9 PM
SCA...SF Bay from 9 PM until 3 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: Dykema
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DRP
FIRE WEATHER: Dykema
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1022 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017
.AVIATION...
VFR flight categories with clouds/ceilings of 25-30 kft prevailing
and having middle level around 10-15 kft added around 20/06Z.
After 20/09Z expecting low level moisture returning from the
South allowing MVFR flight categories to return with ceilings from
15 hnd to 25 hnd feet. Could also see patchy mist/BR to reduce
the surface visibilities from 3-5 statute miles for the East and
Northeast Texas, Southwest Arkansas, and Northwest Louisiana
sites. Lower flight categories will be slow to improve during the
first half of the daytime. Have included mention of VCSH for KTYR
and KLFK and VCTS for KSHV in the early afternoon to middle of the
afternoon Friday. VFR will return into the afternoon for all the
sites. Surface winds will be light and variable to light Southeast
less than 7 knots overnight and Southeast 7-12 knots on Friday
with an increase to around 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts across
the East Texas terminals by 20/15Z. /06/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 911 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017/
DISCUSSION...
IR Satellite Imagery this evening continues to show plentiful high
clouds across much of the Four State Region but low level moisture
is best confined to SE TX attm. Slightly negative tilted upper
level trough axis continues to nose its way into the TX Hill
Country with a slowly retreating ridge across SE LA expected to
continue moving eastward overnight as the trough axis approaches.
HRRR and latest 00z NAM output does support the possibility of
some weak echoes overnight across our western most zones and this
is due in part to increasing PVA in the 500mb layer. Not all that
impressed with the likelihood of low level moisture return
overnight across our eastern zones but instead, we will need to
moisten the atmosphere from the top down if we are going to
squeeze out any precipitation overnight. Did not change the Slight
Chance pop wording across our western zones but did change the
Weather category to showers, leaving the possibility of Tstms out
of the forecast overnight.
While the high clouds are plentiful attm, they are thin,
especially across our eastern and northeastern zones. So much so
that hourly temperatures had already fallen well below hourly fcst
temps. Believe overnight low temps should be in the ballpark but
did make changes to the diurnal trends in ambient hourly
temperatures and dewpoints to better mimic these trends. Otherwise
no other significant changes to the forecast for the remainder of
the night. /13/
&&PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 414 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017/
DISCUSSION...
Southeast winds have made a comeback, bringing a return in
southerly flow in the low levels across the region. This will be
very noticeable over the next couple of days as high temperatures
will run some 5 degrees warmer compared to the past couple of
days along with higher dewpoints,which will result in higher
relative humidities. Also, overnight lows will be some 10-15
degrees higher over the next couple of nights. In addition to the
southerly flow return, an abundant amount of cirrus will
continue to move into the region from a weak shortwave pivoting
across the Big Bend area of West Texas this evening. By early
tomorrow morning, the shortwave feature across the Big Bend
country will translate farther east across Texas, with isolated
convection developing prior to daybreak. The chance of isolated
showers, and even a few thunderstorms, will carry through the day
on Friday across much of the region, but better rain chances
still await as we head into the weekend.
An upper level trough will swing out across the Plains on
Saturday, as a low develops east of the Rockies. This will help
push a strong cold front across the southern Plains and into our
region by late Saturday. A warm and unstable environment ahead of
the front will be supportive of potentially severe storms along a
developing squall line east of I-35 from eastern Oklahoma down
into northeast Texas. The primary threat at the moment will be
damaging winds, but can`t rule out a few brief tornadoes at this
juncture. One positive with this system will be the beneficial
rainfall it will bring to the region. Rainfall amounts still
appear to be in the 1-2 inch range for most locations with higher
amounts possible along and north of the I-30 corridor.
The trough and cold front will exit the region on Sunday evening
leaving behind cooler than normal temperatures and dry weather for
most of next week. /20/
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 60 83 66 85 / 10 20 20 40
MLU 55 83 65 84 / 10 10 20 40
DEQ 52 80 62 80 / 10 20 20 40
TXK 57 80 65 82 / 10 20 20 40
ELD 53 79 64 83 / 10 10 20 40
TYR 62 81 67 84 / 20 30 30 40
GGG 60 83 66 84 / 20 20 30 40
LFK 63 82 68 85 / 20 30 30 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
06/13