Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/11/17

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
604 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 207 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Early afternoon water vapor loop and RAP analysis showed center of compact upper low over far northeastern KS, which continued to pull away from the Central Plains. Weak shortwave ridging was moving across Colorado in its wake. The surface high behind the departing system was quite weak, with only a 1026mb ridge, more or less, extending from southeastern SD into southwestern KS. Winds will drop off quite a bit at sundown, and we expect a prolonged period of wind speeds of 6 knots or less. Clear sky, light winds, and dewpoints around 30F will allow temperatures to fall through the 30s after midnight. There is still a little bit of uncertainty regarding how large of an area will see 32 degrees or colder temperature for a low, but there is a typical diurnal fall of 25 degrees from today`s highs in this good radiational cooling environment would certainly support a number of counties in west central Kansas reaching 32F for a low. As a result of this thinking, will be hoisting a Freeze Warning for areas generally north of the Arkansas River, and a Frost Advisory south of this (excluding far south central KS). Thanks to WFO GLD, GID, AMA, PUB, ICT for coordinating the frost/freeze hazard. This will be the last cold morning for awhile, as we will be entering a warmer pattern with the upper level flow pattern becoming southwesterly Wednesday. This will foster development of the leeside trough and south-southwest winds will be on the increase as a result, particularly far southwest and west central KS in the afternoon where MSLP gradient will be stronger. This area will also be the first to see downslope momentum, leading to afternoon temperatures topping out in the lower 70s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 207 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Not much change in the overall thinking from previous forecast, as we continue to anticipate a nice warming trend back into the 80s Thursday and Friday. The next front Friday, though, looks a touch faster than what it looked like yesterday, so the 80s will likely only be realized closer to the Oklahoma border. Areas of far west central KS may struggle to escape the 60s. This will likely be a dry front Friday/Friday Night, with much of the initial thunderstorm activity found farther northeast across far northeast KS/northwest MO. That said, the GFS is definitely a more vigorous solution with the QPF field, and as a result, SuperBlend POPs are higher (30-40 percent 06-12z Saturday). The front will likely stall out across southern/central KS with increasing low level moisture pulling northward toward it. The ECMWF, GFS, Canadian models all show a similar signal of slightly positively tilted upper trough from the western Dakotas into Colorado, which is generally not very favorable for precipitation in western Kansas in mid-Fall. Very strong cold frontogenesis usually results, and all three models show this happening late in the day Saturday. Saturday looks like a much better chance for more organized strong/severe thunderstorms, potentially affecting our southeastern counties (south central Kansas). SuperBlend POPs of 40-50 percent are in the grids for areas east of Larned to Greensburg to Coldwater, although my gut tells me the best activity will probably be east into WFO ICT forecast area deeper into south central and eastern KS. Temperatures Sunday look quite cool as intense low level cold advection will drive south lower single digit Celsius temperatures at 850mb, supporting Sunday highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s most locations. Look for the Sunday highs to be a bit lower in future updates if these latest global model trends continue regarding magnitude of cold air behind this trough. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 603 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 A trough of low pressure at the surface will begin to develop across eastern Colorado overnight as a surface high moves across eastern Kansas. The light north/northeasterly winds will shift to the south by early Wednesday morning. These southerly winds will increase through the day and are expected to be in the 15 to 20 knot range by 18z Wednesday. Model soundings indicating VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 33 70 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 32 71 47 84 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 35 74 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 35 73 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 33 67 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 P28 36 69 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Wednesday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>064. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ065-066- 074>080-084>088. && $$ SHORT TERM...Umscheid LONG TERM...Umscheid AVIATION...Burgert
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1023 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show low pressure spinning over the central Mississippi Valley, and a Canadian high pressure from the northern Great Lakes to the west- central Great Plains. Rain showers from the surface low are lifting northward over eastern Iowa and western Illinois, but are running into dry air emanating out of the high to the north. Mid- level clouds are beginning to move into central WI early this afternoon, and this increasing cloud trend will continue for the rest of the day. As the low pressure moves northeast, precip chances and trends are the main forecast concerns. Tonight...The low pressure system will track across central Illinois and Indiana. Central and northeast Wisconsin will be on the northern periphery of the system, with a continued feed of low level dry airmass from the northeast. This may hold off precip for a while, but should see enough push of moisture for precip chances to ramp up over central to east-central WI early to mid-evening. Have increased pops based on more bullish model solutions. Areas south of Wisconsin Rapids to Kewaunee will stand the highest chance of rainfall. The precip will likely pull out of central WI late tonight. Farther north, will see an increase of mid-level clouds during the evening, but dry air is too entrenched for precip. Low temps will range from the low 30s north to near 50 south. Wednesday...Any lingering shower activity is expected to exit east-central WI early in the morning. Then high pressure will reassert itself for the rest of the day. Will likely see more clouds linger over central than northern parts of the state. Highs ranging from near 60 in the north to mid 60s south. .LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 The main forecast concern will be precipitation trends, and the potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms, over the weekend. Expect a period of quiet weather from Wednesday night through Thursday night. Precipitation will return Friday into Friday night, as light to moderate post-frontal rain develops in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Models are coming into better agreement with the timing and track of a surface low that lifts northeast along the lingering frontal boundary over the weekend. Both the GFS and ECMWF track the low through southeast WI Saturday night, before taking it into the eastern Great Lakes Sunday evening. This system will have fairly potent dynamics, plus PWATs around 1.5 inches and some elevated instability over our southeast counties. Current indications are that rain will overspread the area during the late afternoon and evening on Saturday, becoming heavy at times over parts of central and east central WI Saturday night before gradually tapering off Sunday afternoon or evening. Have added a slight chance of thunderstorms to the southeast portion of the CWA Saturday night. Quiet weather returns for the early part of the work week. Temperatures will warm to above normal late in the work week, return to near normal over the weekend, then moderate a bit again toward the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1021 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 VFR conditions should prevail through Wednesday afternoon despite rain across portions of central and east-central Wisconsin into Wednesday morning. The rain is still expected to stay south of a KAUW to KSUE line. The rain will gradually shift to the southeast and end overnight or early Wednesday morning as low pressure moves away from the area. Gusty east/northeast winds can be expected across east-central Wisconsin for the overnight hours, and across the entire area on Wednesday. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......Kieckbusch AVIATION.......Eckberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
920 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 .UPDATE... Isolated to scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two continue this evening over the western zones moving very slowly east over GA and moving west over inland northeast FL. The convection is forecast to dissipate later tonight with loss of heating and weakening low level convergence. The HRRR suggests some overnight activity still over inland SE GA but think coverage would be less than 15%. There is some model agreement that a few showers will be possible near the southeast GA coast by sunrise so will continue with a mention of an isolated shower there. Otherwise...light winds and mostly clear conditions should be supportive of patchy fog toward the early morning hours. Lows will again be above normal in the lower 70s. && .AVIATION...VFR through late tonight. A good chance of stratus and some light fog potential overnight...mainly JAX, GNV, and VQQ. Mainly dry conditions will exist for terminals on Wednesday... with sct to numerous showers and storms northwest of aerodromes over southeast GA. && .MARINE...Current forecast looks on track with southeast winds near 10-15 kt and seas of about 2-4 ft nearshore and 3-5 ft offshore. Winds may drop off a few knots by early morning. No major changes expected. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents continues due to east to southeast swells near 2-3 ft and southeast winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 88 72 88 / 30 60 10 20 SSI 75 86 75 85 / 20 20 0 0 JAX 73 88 71 86 / 10 10 0 0 SGJ 73 85 72 85 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 71 89 68 89 / 0 10 0 0 OCF 70 90 68 89 / 10 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for Clay-Coastal Duval-Flagler-Inland Duval-Putnam-St. Johns. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ Shashy/Nelson/Corless
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1055 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1050 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2017 Hourly grids have been freshened up based on recent observations and trends. This was to account for shower activity in the vicinityof I-75 and to time in precipitation chances later tonight as the cold front moves into and across the area. Fog has developed in a few locations, but the approaching cold front and anticipated cloud cover should limit the coverage. UPDATE Issued at 755 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2017 A band of showers with some embedded thunderstorms continues to push north and northeast across the area as a warm front lifts north across the region. Meanwhile, a surface low pressure system and associated mid level wave is passing by to the northwest of the area. Additional convection was moving across western KY in the vicinity of the trailing cold front. This convection should weaken with the loss of daytime heating, but with the cold front and shortwave trough axis yet to cross the area, additional showers and perhaps a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out overnight after the initial band of showers lifts north and east of the area. The most recent HRRR has some additional development over parts of Central and Eastern KY later this evening. Outside of any convection, the airmass remains moist and fog and low stratus or stratocu will be possible, especially as the front nears late tonight. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 411 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2017 A center of surface low pressure is currently making its way across eastern Missouri, and will continue to lift northeastward into Illinois this evening and overnight as the associated surface fronts begin to occlude. Eastern Kentucky will find itself in the warm sector, ahead of the cold front this evening and overnight, with rain overspreading the region. Chances of thunderstorms are expected through at least the evening. Best instability will be lost during the overnight as surface temperatures cool, and allow for a near surface inversion, preventing lift. The front itself will also be weakening, also reducing the amount of instability to play with. That being said, can`t rule out a rogue storm or two, but confidence not high enough to include thunder in forecast for the overnight at this time. The cold front is expected to push through eastern Kentucky during the first half of the day tomorrow. There is some question as to whether or not thunder will occur during the day as temperatures warm, however based on latest NAM12 soundings it looks like instability will be shallow and limited to about a 3 to 5 hour window in the afternoon just before the front passes through and cooler/drier flow cuts off best lift potential. Given the uncertainty and short window, chose to leave out of forecast at this time. Rain will quickly taper off throughout the afternoon behind the front as drier air filters into the region. Temperatures will still make it into the mid to upper 70s, topping around 80 in the east which will experience the most prefrontal warming. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 325 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2017 The models are in fairly good agreement aloft through at least the first part of the weekend before differences build between the GFS and ECMWF. They all depict a resurgence to the southeast ridging from Thursday through Saturday before a well defined trough coming out of the Rockies starts to shave the northern extent of the higher heights. This trough, stronger and a tad slower in the ECMWF than the GFS, lifts into the Central Plains and Upper Midwest this weekend. The passage of this feature will help to drive lower heights into the Ohio Valley to start the next work week. Locally, it looks like the mid level trough axis will pass through Kentucky on Monday with the ECMWF sweeping its core energy by to the north later that night. Moderating heights will follow as the pattern settles for a bit. Given the decent agreement with the models, even the differences late in the period are not too concerning, will look to make only minor timing adjustments to the starting blend. Sensible weather will feature dry and seasonably warm weather through the weekend as high pressure holds over the area. However, flow coming around its backside will serve to support higher dewpoints and a buildup in moisture as we head toward the start of next week. A cold front will ease into the state late Sunday with showers and a few thunderstorms possible. This boundary will then slowly press southeast during the night and into Monday morning with a change in air mass to follow. High pressure then builds into the state with cooler, but still seasonable, conditions through at least Tuesday. Made some typical terrain based adjustments to the grids most nights during the extended, aside from Sunday, with the front. As for PoPs, lowered some of the small chances well ahead of the front and lingering in its wake. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 828 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2017 In the vicinity of a warm front, a band of showers with a stray thunderstorm continues to lift north and east across the area. These have been reducing visibilities into the MVFR range at times as they pass with CIGS generally MVFR or higher. The chances for showers will linger overnight in advance of the front with some MVFR fog possible in spots. Low level moisture should increase overnight and linger into Wednesday as the front nears and moves across the region. CIGS should lower into the MVFR if not the IFR range for western locations between 6Z and 12Z as the cold front nears with some MVFR eventually possible further east at SJS for a few hours as the front passes. Gradual improvement back toward VFR will occur from then until end of the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...JP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
633 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 .DISCUSSION... See 00Z aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions and light north to northeast winds becoming southeasterly overnight into early Wednesday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017/ DISCUSSION... WV imagery shows the upper trough over ern KS, and its associated cold front has reached the Gulf Coast, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico in a dry slot as post-frontal northerly sfc flow continues. As sfc high pressure moves east overnight, sfc flow will veer around to SE, and begin returning Gulf moisture back into the area. West Texas and Southeast New Mexico will remain under SW flow aloft thru the weekend as the upper ridge centered over the lwr east coast develops westward. As it does, increasing thicknesses are still on tap for a nice warmup to abv-normal temperatures by Thursday afternoon. Next big chance of rain looks to be as soon as Friday night, when 60F sfc dewpoints will be backed up as far west as KCNM. The GFS is persistent in bringing a shortwave up out of Mexico and into SE NM, w/the RR quadrant of the 250mb jet over nrn NM to assist. Other long-range models are not so enthusiastic, so POPs remain on the low side. This activity is forecast to carry over into Saturday, w/the vort axis shifting into West Texas. Finally, long-range models bring a cold front into the CWA beginning 12Z Sunday, which will bring another round of convection, and knock temps back down to- or below- normal into the rest of the extended. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 45 75 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 45 76 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 55 75 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 51 79 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 46 73 57 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 41 73 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 44 78 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 47 75 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 47 75 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 47 76 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 99/99/10
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
836 PM PDT Tue Oct 10 2017 .SHORT TERM...A period of cool and shower weather is expected across the area through Friday. A cold front is moving inland this evening and has brought showers to the coast and Umpqua Valley. Showers are expected to spread inland tonight with a chance for showers across many areas from the Southern Oregon Cascades west. Some light showers are also expected to spread into areas east of the Cascades. For northern California, expect little if any showers. An upper trough moves inland on Wednesday and will bring a cool, moist airmass to the area with additional showers over southern Oregon. Another front is expected to move into the area on Thursday followed by an upper level shortwave that moves around the upper trough and into the area Friday. This will bring a continued cool and showery pattern to the region. Daytime high temperatures are expected to be around 8 to 15 degrees lower than normal through Friday. Snow levels are expected to be around 4000 to 5000 feet in the Southern Oregon Cascades Wednesday through Thursday and may be locally lower at times. The lower snow levels combined with showers will result in some light snow accumulations at the higher passes in the Cascades. Gusty west winds are expected in the afternoons and evenings through Friday, especially for areas from the Cascades east. A drier and warmer pattern sets up Saturday and Sunday as an upper ridge moves into the region from the west. A thermal trough will develop along the coast and is expected to bring periods of gusty northeast winds to the ridges, especially from the Cascades west, on the weekend. && .AVIATION...A cold front is moving inland, bringing northwest winds, cloud cover, and scattered precipitation. MVFR to VFR cigs will continue throughout the TAF period. Expect terrain obscuration of the Coastal Range and Cascades. Inland areas are seeing lowered vis due to smoke, mainly from the Abney fire near the Applegate Valley. Smoke impacts should diminish this evening as northwest flow dominates. Can`t completely rule out a shower or two at any of the TAF terminals... though this front will be relatively dry. Also of note, freezing levels will drop significantly 4500-5500 feet MSL over most of the area by tomorrow morning. So, higher elevations could see snow... and any precip that reaches the East Side could fall as snow. -MSC && .MARINE...A cold front is moving onshore this evening. A cold and showery air mass moves into place tonight and Wednesday with periods of gusty north winds. Steep northwest swell over the waters will build tonight through Wednesday, peaking Wednesday evening. Winds and seas will diminish slightly Thursday into Friday. Another weak front will move across the waters on Thursday then inland Friday. A thermal trough will develop Friday night along the coast and deepen over the weekend. This will result in strong north winds and choppy steep to very steep, wind driven seas developing over the waters, especially for areas from Cape Blanco southward. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 257 PM PDT Tue Oct 10 2017/ DISCUSSION...The cold front is moving into Coos County this afternoon. Southwest winds ahead of this front are gusting up to 25 mph in Lakeview and Alturas. The short term models raises the winds in the Klamath Basin and the Shasta Valley around 5 PM to around 15 mph. So far not much precipitation is falling with the front and we do not expect much until after the front has moved through. Onshore flow behind the front and upslope flow into the Cascades and Siskiyous will lead to a better chance of showers tonight, mainly from the Cascades west and Siskiyous north. Only isolated showers are expected in the Happy Camp area, northern Klamath County and the Warner Valley in eastern Lake County. The HRRR short term model suggests moderate showers into the Kalmiopsis Wilderness and the Illinois Valley around daybreak. With cold air aloft at 500hPa, we could also see isolated lightning strikes in the coastal waters north of Cape Blanco and inland into western Douglas County during the day but at this point we do not expect more lightning strikes elsewhere in our forecast area. Snow levels on Wednesday will be around 4500 ft in the Cascades and closer to 5000 feet in the Siskiyous and 5500 feet in the Warners. Around an inch of snow is possible at Crater Lake on Wednesday with precipitation tapering off Wednesday night. On Thursday, a broad trough remains over the forecast area with a sharp short wave trough bringing another round of showers Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. While the snow level on Thursday night will be higher, at 5300-5700 feet, there will also be more precipitation with this trough and Crater Lake could receive 6 to 8 inches of more snow and 2 to 3 inches of snow over Highway 140 pass over the Cascades. Little to no impact is expected at the Sexton Pass and Siskiyou Pass on I-5 at this time as the snow level will be above those pass elevations. The higher elevation of Highway 97 in northern Klamath County around Chemult could see around an inch of snow Wednesday night with Quartz Mountain Pass on Highway 140 in eastern Klamath and western Lake County seeing around half an inch. The trough lifts east of the area on Friday with a drying trend into the weekend, albeit under a cool NW flow aloft. There could be a fire weather Friday through the weekend from offshore flow and thermal trough along the coast with low humidity. The next chance of significant rain will be Tuesday or Tuesday night. Confidence is moderate and approaches high that we could see wetting rain across SW Oregon with showers east of the Cascades/ /FB && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. $$ CC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
623 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 401 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2017 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated mainly zonal nrn stream mid/upper level flow through srn Canada and a vigorous shortwave trough over ne KS in the srn stream. At the surface, a ridge extended from MN through Lake Superior and portions of nrn Ontario atop a low from se MO into srn IL. Considerable mid/high clouds were spreading through rn WI and Upper Michigan while the pcpn remained well to the south the with nrn edge into far se MN and sw WI. Tonight, Confluent mid/upper level flow and the strong sfc high, dry nrly flow and associated subsidence over the area will keep pcpn from the MO shrtwv to the south of the cwa, per short range models and radar trends. Otherwise, favorable radiational cooling conditions under high pressure with light winds across may be limited by some lingering high clouds, especially over the south. Nevertheless, expect temps near the lower end of model guidance with min temps ranging from the upper 20s western interior to upper 30s and lower 40s at many Great Lakes shoreline locations. Wednesday, another day with the sfc ridge dominating and mostly sunny skies will bring moderating temps with max readings slightly above normal. Mixing to only around 900 mb (6C) with the strong prevailing subsidence will still push temps to around 60. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 408 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2017 The main weather impacts in the extended will be rain potential Friday into Friday night and again Saturday night into Sunday. The weekend system may also produce some gusty winds, depending on the exact strength of the system. Wednesday night through Thursday night: High pressure will remain in control of the weather through this time period as it shifts slowly to the east. At the same time, a vertically stacked low pressure system over Manitoba is expected to shift very slowly into northern Ontario. The low pressure system will have very little impact on the U.P. weather through this time period, with skies remaining partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions expected. Highs and lows will run above normal for this time period. Friday into Friday night: The aforementioned low pressure system will trek across Northern Ontario into Hudson Bay during this time period. As this happens, an associated cold front will slide across the U.P. Friday afternoon into Friday night. Along and ahead of the cold front, moisture and forcing will increase across the area. This will allow widespread rain showers to develop across much of the U.P., again, the best time frame for this will be during the afternoon into the evening hours. At this point, it looks like instability will be minimized, so thunder potential will not be mentioned in the forecast. Otherwise, due to the faster movement of the front, not really expecting too much more than a quarter inch or so of rainfall through Friday night. Temperatures are expected to be above normal Friday before slowly dropping below normal Friday night. Saturday and Sunday: Models are in closer agreement with the weekend low pressure system expected to move through the area; however, there are still some minor differences in intensity. Both models still have the low moving just southeast of the U.P. Saturday night into Sunday, bringing widespread rainfall to much of the U.P. The more concentrated area of rain looks to be over the southeast half at this point. The upper level low is shown to be more open by both the GFS and EC, keeping the surface low much weaker than the previous EC model run had been showing. This would lend support for less gusty winds that may have been expected otherwise. The system will need to be watched; however, as the models have be flip- flopping on the solutions over the last few days. Rest of the extended: Another trough may pass through the area Monday, bringing yet another potential for rains showers; however, due to poor model timing, will stick with a consensus of the models for this time period. This would provide near normal temperatures along with mainly dry conditions. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 623 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2017 VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 401 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2017 With high pressure over the area winds will remain below 20 knots through Wednesday. Southerly winds will increase to 25 knots ahead of a trough moving into the region on Thursday but will drop off to 20 knots or less by Friday. There is lingering uncertainty with the timing/location and strength of a low pressure system moving northeast into the Western Great Lakes by Sunday. Nrly winds to 30 knots will be possible but could increase to gales if a stronger system develops as some recent model runs have shown. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...07 MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
937 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 .DISCUSSION... Most shower activity has ended across the area, and the 00Z OHX sounding shows some midlevel dry air that will be coming our way. The update will adjust PoPs downward overnight. However, there is a line of convection in West TN ahead of the cold front that is projected to reach our area around 10-12Z. Latest HRRR runs also show some redevelopement of showers in the Valley, so low to slight chances will be maintained overnight. Adjustments to temps and dewpoints will also be made to better match obs. && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ DGS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
939 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Narrow band of showers and tstms is pushing toward our western areas with the man frontal boundary providing the forcing. Hrrr indicating the activity will weaken but latest trends showing that the convection is maintaining its current coverage and intensity. Will opt to increase pops some across our southwest. Models still lean toward a decrease in forcing over the next few hours. Otw, temps still look to be on track as values drop off in the upper 50s behind the front. Update out shortly. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. Sfc low over central IL will lift northward overnight. As this happens, the rainfall across the area will diminish prior to 06z. The cloudiness, however, will hang on through the night and into the 12z-18z timeframe as well. Some late night light fog will occur along with mvfr cigs. Partial clearing will commence, generally after 18z. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......21
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 19Z water vapor imagery shows an upper low over northeast KS lifting to the northeast. Another upper low was moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, high pressure stretched from the southern high plains to the upper Midwest. Cloud cover and low level cold air advection continued into the afternoon and temps have remains in the lower and middle 40s. For tonight and Wednesday, the weather should remain dry. As the upper low continues to lift northeast, subsidence should increase. Combined with dry air advecting in with the surface ridge, there is little chance of precip tonight or Wednesday. So focus shifts to temps. Conditions for radiational cooling look favorable across north central KS where the ridge axis is forecast to move into, with skies clearing out. However the RAP and NAM hang onto the low clouds over eastern KS through much of he night. So where skies are forecast to clear out, lows should drop into the lower 30s while cloud cover over eastern KS keeps temps in the mid 30s to near 40. Based on this forecast, have issued frost advisories and freeze warnings for north central KS and parts of northeast KS. This forecast is heavily dependent on the cloud cover forecast, so the evening shift will need to watch how the clouds clear out and make any adjustments to the headlines as needed. Surface ridging is expected to remain over the area through the day Wednesday. So there is not expected to be a great deal of mixing and surface winds maintain a light easterly component. So highs Wednesday are expected to remain on the cool side. Mostly sunny skies by the afternoon should help temps warm into the lower and middle 60s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 A gradual warming trend will set in for the latter part of the week with the next major chance of showers and storms arriving on Saturday. Broad cyclonic flow will be in place over the western and central CONUS at the start of the period, facilitating the return of warm southerly winds. A northern stream wave will drag a cold front southeastward across the Dakotas and Nebraska on Thursday. Lee cyclogenesis will take place along the Front Range on Thursday night and into early Friday with the cyclone gradually drifting northeastward and reinforcing the decaying cold front. Highs on Thursday will reach into the 70s across NE Kansas, but surge into the low to mid 80s (upper 80s are possible) in areas ahead of the boundary as ample WAA takes place. The upper level blocking pattern breaks down late in the week with a sharp shortwave trough ejecting ENE across the central plains. The increase in kinematic support coupled with the strengthening Fg forcing will fuel shower and thunderstorm development both late Friday and again Saturday afternoon. The GFS/EC/GEM are in general agreement with the position of the boundary and upper level features, but there remain enough mesoscale differences to warrant some degree of uncertainty. The CAPE-shear profiles ahead of this boundary would be supportive of strong convective storms, but with the mid to upper level steering flow parallel to the surface boundary, it is likely that any storms will quickly grow upscale into a linear line. GFS bufr soundings depict 0-1 km helicity values of 200-300 m2/s2 with 0-3 km shear values of 30-40 kts. Thus, there would exist a non-zero tornado threat should this scenario come to fruition in addition to wind and hail. Heavy rainfall would be a threat given PWATS of 1.5 to 2 inches and the possibility of training cells, but the fast storm motions of 40 to 50 kts would work somewhat against a flooding scenario. This complex will quickly exit early Sunday with Canadian high pressure and seasonal temperatures sliding southward to start next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 MVFR ceilings are expected to shift east of the area at MHK within the hour, and at TOP/FOE near 05Z. There are some model solutions which hold on to the clouds a bit longer so this possibility will continue to be monitored. Once the low clouds clear, VFR is expected to prevail with light winds throughout the period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ010-022-035>037. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ008-009-020-021-034. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wolters LONG TERM...Skow AVIATION...Heller