Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/10/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1200 AM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017
.AVIATION...
Quiet weather over southeastern Michigan with weak surface ridging
in place and virtually zero thermal advections to speak of. Upper
level confluence will strengthen by morning as the entrance region to
the upper level jet axis will snap into place directly over the
Great Lakes. Uncertainty exists as to the likelihood of fog
overnight. Rap soundings have been bouncing around a fair amount in
not only saturation but also with the surface inversion structure.
RAP forecast soundings remain not nearly as bullish in amount of
near surface saturation but given a couple of obs with Haze concerns,
lack of mixing will lead to some br/fg. Will continue a MVFR fog
mention.
For DTW...Expecting some fog to develop late Tonight, just not sure
how dense it will become with the shallow moisture. Otherwise, could
see MVFR stratus track in from the north Tuesday morning.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for cigs at or below 5000 ft late tonight into Tuesday morning.
* Very low for cigs/vis aob 200 ft and/or 1/2SM from 10-13z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017
DISCUSSION...
An outstanding fall day is unfolding around SE Michigan this
afternoon. Under plenty of sunshine, highs are solidly in the mid to
upper 70s which are 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early October
but well short of records in the mid to upper 80s. A cold front over
the northern Great Lakes will then move through the region tonight
and bring quite a change for Tuesday. The front remains too lean on
moisture for rain but will bring clouds and cooler air after fully
exiting into Ohio Tuesday morning. Observations indicate just some
fragile bands of low clouds within the frontal zone over the
northern Great Lakes today, along and north of the surface wind
shift and are modeled to remain in a similar relative position in
the frontal zone during the night. This is important for potential
fog development overnight as there is also a lack of high clouds
upstream which will allow some radiational cooling of the relatively
moist boundary layer over SE Michigan. Timing the frontal passage
shortly after midnight in the Tri Cities and northern Thumb regions
will likely prevent fog coverage there in favor of low clouds. A
later wind shift farther south will bring the greatest coverage of
fog along and south of the I-69 corridor and especially through the
Detroit metro area to the Ohio border. The wind shift to the
northeast will then scour out remaining surface moisture by mid
Tuesday morning leaving varying amounts of low cloud coverage within
the frontal inversion for the rest of the day. Expect these clouds
will have greater coverage near the Ohio border while mid and high
clouds associated with both the front and the next upper wave cover
points north through the afternoon. Prefer guidance temperatures in
the 60s considering the cooler northeast flow that will be in place
along with the clouds.
As the front settles toward the Ohio valley, the stage will be set
for it to interact with the next low pressure system and produce a
generous rainfall event Tuesday night through Wednesday. The upper
wave is observed moving through the central Rockies today and is
already producing significant lee side surface cyclogenesis over the
southern Plains. There is good model agreement to then bring the
system into the mid Mississippi valley during Tuesday while tapping
deep moisture from the Gulf region that will supply a pattern of
isentropic ascent over lower Michigan Tuesday night. The upper wave
is then projected to move directly over the region early Wednesday
with a surface low track south of the Ohio border through the day.
There is some variation in solutions on the surface low track and
character while agreement is solid in the formation of a mid level
theta-e trowal axis over SE Michigan as a sign of the dynamic
support within the wave. Model QPF offering 12 hr totals around 1
inch then look reasonable ending Wednesday afternoon. The potential
for excessive rainfall will be limited by a northward push of the
dry slot and the fast movement of the system.
Upper-level ridging aloft and surface high pressure will influence
the Great Lakes Thursday into Friday which will bring dry conditions
and will allow temperatures to slowly ramp up through the weekend.
Wind direction will shift from the northeast to the southwest
Thursday into Friday, which will allow warmer air to push daytime
highs into the lower 70s Friday afternoon. WAA will continue to ramp
up Friday into Saturday, as noted in the 850 mb thermal maps, where
temperatures averaging 6C Friday morning increases to 15C Saturday
morning. An increase in warmer air and a chance to see periods of
extended sunshine will allow daytime highs to peak in the mid to
upper 70s, and even the lower 80s across Metro Detroit Saturday
afternoon. For reference, normal daytime high temperatures reside in
the lower 60s across SE Michigan for mid-October.
The next likely chance for rain and thunderstorms will come to
Michigan Saturday into Sunday, however, confidence regarding timing
and intensity remain low as discrepancies between long range models
are prevalent. The GFS pushes the warm front and an associated LLJ
across Central Michigan which produces precipitation across the Tri-
Cities to thumb. As low pressure pushes northeast from northern
Illinois into Central Michigan, rain chances eventually spread
across the Metro Detroit region, with PoPs continuing through early
Sunday as a cold front sweeps through the state. The ECMWF model
produces rain chances from the warm front early Sunday. The center
of the low pressure center is north compared to the GFS run, pushing
northeast from southern WI into northern lower Michigan, which drags
the associated cold front through the state early Monday morning.
Cool and dry air will filter in behind the cold front Monday into
Tuesday, which is expected to return temperatures back to seasonal
values.
MARINE...
A cold front dropping south through the region will bring an
increase in north-northwest winds across lake Huron Tonight. Winds
will be topping out between 20 to 25 knots over the open waters of
Lake Huron by Tuesday morning. This trajectory will build wave
heights to 4 feet over greater over southern lake Huron, which
should impact the nearshore waters as well. Winds will then ease a
bit late Tuesday and Tuesday night, while shifting to north.
However, easterly winds on Wednesday will increase back into the 20
to 25 knot ranges, as low pressure tracks through the Ohio Valley.
Additional small craft advisories will likely be needed.
HYDROLOGY...
Widespread rainfall is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday as a
low pressure system tracks through the Ohio Valley. Rainfall
totals around 1 inch appear likely, but the rainfall will occur over
a longer duration, roughly 12 or more hours. Thus, no flooding is
anticipated, but standing water on the area roadways and in the
flood-prone low lying areas and area roadways should be expected.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ421-441-442.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...BT/AM
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY....SF
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
610 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017
...00z AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017
A front extended across Missouri into northern Illinois during the
afternoon. Near and south of the front, temperatures reached the
low 80s around Macomb. North of the front, readings were in the
upper 60s near Independence. Clouds increased during the
afternoon, along and east of the Mississippi River, while eastern
Iowa was mostly clear.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017
The main forecast issues in the short term period are rainfall
amounts and coverage, and potential for isolated severe weather
and flash flooding.
In the near term, the NamNest and HRRR have hinted at a few
showers developing in the enhanced CU field over the far southeast
counties during the late afternoon. Have opted to keep forecast
dry for now and monitor short-term trends. Later this evening,
expect an increasing N/NE wind as surface low pressure approaches
the region. Have held off any showers until after midnight, per
consensus model timing. Areas along and south of I-80 would be
favored for rain through 12z.
Tuesday morning, showers and scattered storms forecast to increase
in coverage from south to north. There are some variations in the
main surface low track, with the ECMWF still the farthest
northwest. The 500mb low tracks are similar. The ECMWF continues
to be very consistent with track and bullish QPF output. WPC has
the forecast area in the day 2 marginal risk area for excessive
rainfall. Am thinking most areas can take a good amount of rain
with no issues, but will have to monitor urban areas affected by
very high rainfall rates.
Regarding severe weather potential, there are a number of factors
that raise some red flags. This will be another unseasonably moist
airmass, with PWAT values above 1.5 inches. A potent negatively
tilted 500mb wave is concerning. The key may be if enough MUCAPE
develops, to complement the large level shear/helicity and
favorable 0-3km shear vectors. CAMS are indicating at the very
least, some strong storms will be an issue Tuesday morning and
again during the afternoon. Straight line winds and brief HSLC
tornadoes would be the main threats with this potentially volatile
set-up. The farther NW ECMWF solution would mean more of the
southeast counties exposed to this risk. Confidence in these
scenarios is typically low a day in advance, but we will be
monitoring closely.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017
The next storm system moves through Tuesday night and exits the area
Wednesday morning. A general rain across the area is expected with
some embedded thunderstorms early Tuesday evening. The best chances
for rain look to be Tuesday evening with rain slowly ending from
southwest to northeast late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Dry conditions are expected Wednesday afternoon through Thursday as
high pressure builds into the Midwest. The models are suggesting the
potential for a layer of moisture becoming trapped which, if
correct, suggests plenty of low clouds Wednesday night and Thursday.
Thursday night on...
Thursday night/Friday the model consensus has dry conditions for the
area as high pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes.
Temperatures will average above normal.
Starting Friday night and continuing through Sunday a period of
unsettled weather looks to be in store for the area. The models
bring another front into the area that stalls. While the front is
stalled, another storm system will ride up along the front bringing
another widespread rain event for the area.
There are timing differences on when the storm system will move up
along the stalled front. The ECMWF suggests Saturday night/Sunday
while the GFS suggests Saturday/Saturday night.
There are also questions regarding moisture availability when the
front initially arrives in the area Friday night. The arriving storm
system will bring a slug of moisture with it so rain chances would
be higher when it moves through the area.
As a result of the timing differences, the model consensus has
chance pops Friday night, likely to categorical pops
Saturday/Saturday night, and chance pops on Sunday.
Sunday night/Monday the model consensus has dry conditions for the
area as high pressure moves through the Midwest.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017
VFR conditions expected tonight with gusty northerly winds developing
in strengthening pressure gradient post frontal. Tuesday into
Tuesday evening expect deteriorating conditions to MVFR in low
clouds and bouts of rain/showers, as a storm system approaches from
the Southern Plains. Some bouts of IFR is possible at times, mainly
for visibility in the showers. There is a low risk of isolated
storms near KBRL, but risk too low for mention at this time. Best
storm chances appear to be southeast of the terminals from eastern
MO into central IL. Winds on Tue-Tue evening will remain gusty at
15-25 kts.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RP Kinney
SHORT TERM...RP Kinney
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...McClure
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
958 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017
.UPDATE... /REDUCED POPS SLIGHTLY...LOWERED MAX T SE TUES/
Cold front is seen on radar/satellite to have entered the CWA and
appears to have increased forward speed to around 15 knots. This
brings a few more areas into seeing the wind shift before midnight,
so have adjusted the winds to shift earlier to reflect the latest
rapid refresh data. Shower and thunderstorm activity is less robust
then from earlier in the evening when some daytime heating ahead of
the front was factored in; all the higher res models are trending
down on QPF, and will follow suit on the forecast with less thunder/
QPF, and slightly lower PoPs across the board both tonight and
Tuesday.
Good mixing is still expected in the overnight hours and the front
is still expected to clear all areas in time to prevent a mid-morning
max temperature. Latest blended guidance has cooler maxes over
southeast counties, and with deep frontal mixing and cloud cover
expected nearly all day, will trim a degree or three off the highs SE
of I-35 for Tuesday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017/
UPDATE...
00Z Aviation Update Below.
AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the evening hours. A cold front
will enter the northern Hill Country between 02Z-04Z and reach the
AUS area roughly around 06Z and SAT/DRT around 07Z. Currently
isolated TSRAs have developed along the front north of the region.
Latest HRRR guidance indicates a few of these storms could approach
AQO-BMQ and can`t rule out the possibility of a strong storm near
this region. HRRR then suggests decreasing coverage after 04Z as
front encounters increasing CIN after sunset and an inversion noted
around H85-H8 by aircraft sounding data from AUS. The latest Texas
Tech 4 KM WRF and HRRR overnight suggests convective activity
primarily in the form of a quick shot of a scattered to broken line
of SHRAs along and behind the front. Have therefore indicated
primarily VCSH in the TAF sites overnight.
Forecast soundings indicate MVFR deck developing behind the front
and potentially lasting through at least midday on Tuesday,
especially southern TAF sites of SAT and DRT. N winds will develop
behind the front and strengthen to 13-20 kts, with gusts in excess
of 25 kts, between 08Z-10Z at DRT and 11Z-13Z at AUS/SAT. The winds
will gradually weaken mid to late afternoon.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Mostly clear skies are prevailing across the area with temperatures
already in the upper 80s to lower 90 degrees. Expect these values to
warm a few more degrees this afternoon with highs reaching the lower
to middle 90s. Some of the climate sites will likely be close to
record values which are:
Austin Mabry - 95
Austin Bergstrom - 93
San Antonio Intl - 94
Del Rio - 95.
There is relief in sight as a cold front continues to push south
across North Texas. The front currently lies along a line from near
Midland to Abilene to Wichita Falls. The upper low associated with
the cold front is currently in southern Colorado and will continue to
push east into southern Kansas by tomorrow morning. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop along the boundary
later this afternoon in Oklahoma and North Texas. The best dynamical
forcing will be located in this region and therefore this is where
the bulk of the activity will remain this afternoon and where storms
should be strongest. There is a marginal risk for severe storms for
North Texas and a slight risk closer to the OK/KS border where the
upper low will track.
For our CWA, the front will arrive to the northern counties around
midnight and there should be a broken line of showers and storms
along it. Any shower and storm activity will be primarily driven by
frontogenetical forcing and should be a quick shot of rain with the
FROPA. The environment overnight will have about 1000-1500 J/kg of
CAPE but shear values of 15-30 knots will remain unsupportive for
organized convection which is primarily due to the track of the upper
low. With the expected instability values, a strong storm with gusty
winds and/or small hail cant be ruled out in any multi-cellular
cluster but not expecting much.
The front will continue to progress southward overnight bringing
much of the CWA a 40-60 percent chance of a quick shower or
thunderstorm with it. The higher PoPs will be in the western counties
where upper flow is a bit higher and there could be some weak upper
lift to support a slightly higher coverage of activity. There could
even be some scattered lingering activity as well through the morning
hours in the western counties.
Behind the front, cooler temperatures will quickly usher in. Night
time lows will be dependent on where the exact frontal position will
be in the morning. Upper 50s are possible in the Hill Country before
the sun begins to bring surface heating in the morning. Highs
tomorrow will be about 20-25 degrees cooler than today with highs in
the upper 60s in the Hill Country and 70s elsewhere behind strong
cold-air advection. North winds behind the front tomorrow will be
breezy with speeds around 20 mph with higher gusts. For tomorrow
night, lows will be in the 50s to near 60 degrees which should be a
welcome change for most of us.
LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
The cooler weather will stick around Wednesday as the surface ridge
remains in the region. Highs will be in the middle 70s to lower 80s.
Lows Wednesday night will be back in the 50s/60s but just a few
degrees warmer than Tuesday night. The warm-up will begin Thursday
with highs expected to be in the middle to upper 80s and lows in the
upper 60s to near 70 degrees. These temperatures will remain in the
forecast through the Sunday. Medium-range guidance is somewhat
consistent with the progging of another cold front Sunday night. The
parent upper trough will be even farther north than the current
front and therefore rain chances should be less. Will only show a 20
PoP Sunday and Monday to cover the low-end rain threat.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 62 73 57 78 62 / 40 20 - - -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 64 73 57 77 60 / 40 20 - - -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 75 58 77 61 / 40 20 - - -
Burnet Muni Airport 57 70 53 75 58 / 40 20 0 - -
Del Rio Intl Airport 63 72 59 77 63 / 40 30 - - -
Georgetown Muni Airport 60 72 55 77 59 / 40 20 0 - -
Hondo Muni Airport 64 74 58 80 62 / 50 20 - 10 -
San Marcos Muni Airport 64 74 57 77 60 / 40 20 - - -
La Grange - Fayette Regional 67 74 59 79 62 / 30 20 - - 10
San Antonio Intl Airport 65 73 60 78 63 / 50 20 - 10 -
Stinson Muni Airport 67 74 60 78 63 / 40 20 - 10 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Mesoscale/Aviation...Runyen
Synoptic/Grids...Oaks
Public Service/Data Collection...Treadway
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
930 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017
.UPDATE...
An upper low can be seen on the latest water vapor satellite loop
moving east into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Lift
associated with this system is spreading east into North Texas,
which is beginning to generate elevated convection across the
northwestern third of the forecast area. This activity is well
behind tonight`s cold front, which has made it through the
Metroplex and was located near a Bonham-Hillsboro-Lampasas line
during the past hour. Surface-based convection will remain
possible along the front as it pushes east, but strong to severe
storms are no longer expected due to the loss of surface
instability.
Meanwhile, elevated showers and occasional storms will also remain
a possibility farther west, and we have extended POPs farther
west during the overnight hours to account for this activity.
Precipitation will come to an end during the morning hours as the
front moves southeast of the forecast area and the upper low
shifts east of the Plains. Much cooler weather and breezy
conditions are expected behind the front, and the rest of the
forecast is unchanged.
30
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 706 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017/
A cold front stretching from GYI to DFW to MNZ will continue to
work its way through the Metroplex during the next hour. DFW is
just now indicating a wind shift at the airport and DAL should
follow suit during he next hour, so all TAFs in the Metro area
will begin with northwest winds. The front will take a few more
hours to reach the Waco area, and have indicated FROPA at 10/0200Z
for KACT.
Convection has begun to develop west of the KACT area in a region
of good instability and these cells are spreading east-northeast.
Additional storms will remain possible along the front even
though the better forcing will remain north of the region.
The TEMPO group for thunder has therefore been removed from the
TAFs due to the isolated nature of this evening`s convection, but
will keep VCTS in the forecasts though 10/04Z in the Metroplex and
through 10/07Z at KACT. It`s possible that elevated showers will
continue into the overnight hours as slightly better lift
arrives, so will keep an eye on that for future TAF issuances.
Northwest winds are gusty immediately behind the front but should
slacken around an hour after FROPA. Wind speeds will increase
again later this evening as the main surge of cooler air arrives.
A layer of stratocumulus is still progged to develop above the
frontal layer later this evening, but pretty much all of the
latest guidance keeps this cloud deck up in the VFR range. Clouds
will scatter during the day Tuesday, and winds will finally drop
below 10 KT after sunset Tuesday evening.
30
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 322 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017/
/Through Tonight/
At this hour, a strong cold front extended from near a Bowie to
Mineral Wells to Eastland line. This feature continues to outpace
most model guidance, with the exception of NAM-WRF solutions. With
that in mind, the short-term forecast will follow this suite of
guidance closely. In terms of convective chances, the latest
mesoanalysis indicates that a plume of 1,500-2,000 J/kg CAPE was
located along the I-35 corridor with decreasing CIN. As the cold
front slides southward and overtakes a subtle dryline/pre-frontal
trough, it still seems probable that we will see convective
initiation around the 2300 to 0100 UTC time frame. Short term
guidance still indicates that there are a couple of areas favored
for convective initiation. The first is for areas near and north
of I-20, closer to the strong belt of mid-level flow and an
increasingly more robust CU field was noted here.. The other area
is down across Central TX, where guidance may be keying in on
enhanced surface convergence as the cold front overtakes the pre-
frontal trough/dryline. I`m a little hesitant to go any higher
than 50 PoP given that the environment aloft is still somewhat
hostile for widespread severe weather, so we will keep with the
chance PoPs.
The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms still appears
possible, but the speed of the front may ultimately prove to be
too much for a long duration severe weather episode with the mid
level system deeper and lagging behind the front. The threat for
strong to severe storms should be brief on the order of perhaps 1
to 3 hours. The primary hazards will remain damaging winds and
hail. For a more detailed storm scale analysis, please see the
previous mesoscale update discussion. Latest runs of the HRRR do
indicate the potential for some post-frontal thunderstorms and
should this occur, the main hazard would be hail up to the size of
quarters with this activity. For now, this is something that will
need to be addressed in later short term/mesoscale updates.
The other big change will be the strong northwesterly flow in the
wake of the front. Surface pressure rises will allow sustained
winds of 20 to 25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH not out of the realm of
possibility. We will hold off on a wind advisory as observations
upstream are a little on the marginal side and for now, I`ll defer
to later shifts. Overnight low temperatures will fall into the 50s
and 60s.
24-Bain
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 322 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017/
/Tuesday Through Next Weekend/
The strong early Fall cold front will be surging through East
Texas and the Upper Texas Coast by the time we hit daybreak
Tuesday. Strong CAA will combine with good surface pressure rises
for gusty northwest winds 15-25 mph, much cooler temperatures, and
a few elevated showers across the southeast CWA for the morning
hours. The vigorous mid level shortwave will move readily northeast
toward the Mid Mississippi Valley by afternoon with continued dry
air advection for clearing skies and afternoon highs recovering
to between 65 and 70 degrees northwest, to the mid 70s southeast.
Northwest wind speeds will also begin a slow decline late in the
day and into the evening hours, as the pressure gradient slackens
with the arrival of the surface high and decoupling of the dry
airmass. One of the coolest mornings since last Spring will occur
Wednesday morning with good radiational cooling and light winds
expected. Lows will be in the 40s most locales across rural
counties, with low 50s possible across immediate urban areas and
our far southern counties.
The upper ridge of the Southeast U.S. and Gulf Coast will begin
expanding westward over North and Central Texas with a slow
return to modest south-southeast winds for the end of the week
Thursday and Friday. Temperatures and humidity values will remain
comfortable with lows in the 50s Thursday morning and highs in the
lower-mid 80s. The warmth and humidity will begin to return in
earnest later Friday into next weekend, as a large upper trough
deepens across the Rockies once again. This will help to intensify
lee side cyclogenesis to the northwest and ahead of another
frontal boundary with southerly low level flow helping to pull
Gulf moisture back northward. Friday into Saturday will once again
see lows in the 60s and lower 70s, with afternoon highs pushing
90 degrees once again. A vigorous shortwave will once again exit
east across the Plains later in the weekend with a cold front
moving into the area last Saturday Night and Sunday. There are the
usual and obvious discrepancies between the GFS and European
models with the former being further south and more aggressive
with the frontal timing and convective chances. Meanwhile, the
latter is further north with system as a whole and slower by 12-18
hours. For now, went with the more conservative and slower
European model for low convective chances Sunday into Monday due
to the GFS looking to dissipate the upper ridge over southern
latitudes too quickly. Nevertheless, cooler Fall conditions will
return once again early next week.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 54 70 49 75 57 / 40 10 0 0 0
Waco 56 73 50 78 56 / 40 10 0 0 0
Paris 56 70 46 74 52 / 50 10 0 0 0
Denton 52 68 45 75 54 / 30 10 0 0 0
McKinney 53 69 46 74 54 / 40 10 0 0 0
Dallas 56 71 51 76 58 / 50 10 0 0 0
Terrell 57 71 47 76 54 / 30 10 0 0 0
Corsicana 59 73 50 77 56 / 30 10 0 0 0
Temple 57 72 51 76 55 / 40 10 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 52 68 44 75 52 / 30 5 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
30/82
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1012 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday
Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a dry cold
front over southeast Wisconsin. A broken band of clouds exists
behind the front over the southern Fox Valley and northeast WI.
More widespread mid-level cloud cover resides upstream over
northwest Wisconsin and Minnesota, behind a secondary cold front.
Temps are currently in the 40s behind the secondary boundary,
while mainly in the 60s ahead of it. As this front sags into the
area late tonight, forecast concerns center mainly around temps.
Tonight...The trailing cold front will slide across north-central
Wisconsin. Area of mid clouds and a northwest wind will likely
hold up temps for the evening, but then should see clearing skies
and calming winds occur overnight. With the incoming cold airmass,
temps are projected to fall into the low to mid 30s over north-
central WI, so will issue a frost advisory. Over northeast WI,
some clouds will likely persist into early this evening, before
partially clearing arrives. Low temps falling into the mid to
upper 40s over eastern WI.
Tuesday...As a storm system moves across the central Plains, will
see clouds on the increase from late morning through the afternoon
after a mostly sunny/partly cloudy start. Dry air will erode
precip as it tries to move northeast ahead of the system, but left
a slight chance in the forecast from southern Wood to southern
Winnebago counties. Cooler high temps in the mid 50s to near 60.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017
The main forecast concerns will be precipitation chances for
the middle of the week and next weekend.
High pressure and a very dry air mass will reside over the
northern Great Lakes on Tuesday night. Farther south, an upper
level low is expected to track toward southern Lake Michigan,
and gradually weaken as it approaches. A tight moisture gradient
will reside across the region, with PWATS around 0.25 inch over
far northern WI, but increasing to 1 inch over parts of central
and east central WI. Models are still struggling with how far
north to bring precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
but northeast winds should draw enough dry Canadian air into the
region to confine any significant rain to our far southern
counties. Across north central and far northeast WI, relatively
clear skies, light winds and the very dry air mass will support
cool temperatures, with lows in the middle 20s to lower 30s at
the typical cold spots. Would expect another widespread frost or
freeze there, but since frost/freeze headlines will be suspended
over northern WI after tomorrow, this should be a low impact event
with no headlines.
Expect a period of quiet weather from Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday night, along with near normal temperatures. Precipitation
will return Friday into Friday night, as post-frontal rains
develop in the wake of a cold frontal passage. The rain will be
supported by upper divergence in the RRQ of a 160 knot jet. POPs
have been increased significantly through this period.
Models are exhibiting timing issues with the weekend system,
with the GFS bringing the surface wave up the front Saturday into
Saturday night, while the ECMWF is about 12 hours slower. Both
models do agree that the system will track a bit farther southeast
than they have shown the past couple days, which would focus the
more significant rain over our southeast counties and push the
main threat of thunderstorms south of the forecast area. Will stay
close to the preferred model blend, at least until the models get
a better handle on the timing and track of the surface low. This
system has fairly potent dynamics and abundant moisture, so heavy
rainfall remains possible, especially over our southeast counties.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1012 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017
VFR mid level clouds will continue to slide over the
area overnight. A high pressure system over the Northern Plains
building into northwest Wisconsin through Tuesday will decrease
the mid level clouds over northern Wisconsin. Mid level clouds
may be more persistent over central and east central Wisconsin
tonight into Tuesday as a low pressure area tracks into Illinois
Tuesday into Tuesday night.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Tuesday for WIZ005-010>012-018-019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......TDH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1046 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Hurricane Nate will cross New England tonight, but
will leave a trailing boundary draped across the region. This front
will lift north as a moist warm front on Tuesday, producing more
showers and thunderstorms. Slightly drier high pressure will try to
work into the area by Thursday, but a back door cold front may keep
moist conditions heading into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1040 PM EDT Monday: The latest HRRR continues to feature some
measure of blossoming shower coverage for the overnight hours, and
weak 500 mb shortwaves riding northeast in the deep layer
southwesterly flow support this. However, limited instability should
keep any thunder chances quite isolated in nature during the early
morning hours. The bigger concern could well be fog and low clouds,
but light mixing in passing showers should keep the fog from
becoming dense in most areas, and stratus is generally favored over
widespread dense fog development. Still expect soupy mins in the
lower 70s most areas east of the mountains, with 60s in the high
terrain.
For Tuesday, deep southwesterly flow will prevail yet again -
leading to another day of above normal PoPs as the aforementioned
moisture axis lingers despite the upper ridge. A weak warm frontal
boundary will steadily lift north of the area. Although not great by
any means, chances for a strong storm or two on Tuesday cannot be
ruled out as high dewpoints continue and sbCAPE improves in slightly
better afternoon insolation. Expect well above normal temperatures
once again in the southwesterly flow regime.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Monday: An upper ridge will gradually retrogress
from the Atlantic west to the central Gulf states Wednesday thru
Thursday. Further west, a vigorous fast-moving upper low will eject
out of the central Rockies and lift NE into the Upper Midwest. This
low will eventually open up and dampen as it rides over the ridge.
The associated low pressure system will track into the Great Lakes
and drag a dying cold front across the Ohio Valley to the southern
Appalachians. This front will wash out quickly, and leave the
eastern half of the CWFA still under above climo PWATS thru
Thursday. So unsettled, muggy conditions will continue. However, no
real strong sources of forcing expected, so severe threat and
excessive rainfall are not expected. Will go with high-end CHC PoPs
on Wednesday, and mid-CHC on Thursday. Temps will continue to be
well above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Monday: the medium range will start out with an
elongated upper high over the Southeast, with a broad positively
tilted trough across the west. The western trough will gradually
sharpen up and eject a series of shortwaves across the northern tier
states and break down the ridge. By the end of the medium range, an
upper trough will set up across the east. At the sfc, a fairly
strong high will build into New England and may force a backdoor
cold front all the way thru the area. Cold air damming will likely
set up Friday, as 850 mb flow turns out of the SE with some upglide.
Depending on how deep the wedge is and how much light QPF can fall,
the wedge may hold on thru Saturday. The remnant CAD cold pool may
linger into early Sunday, but should erode by early AFTN, resulting
in a sunnier, pleasant day, as the parent high exits well off the
East Coast. As the aforementioned upper trough begins to dig across
the eastern states, a cold front will approach from the west and may
cross the CWFA on Monday per the 12z GFS and 00z ECWMF. This should
usher in a return to more typical fall conditions just beyond the
medium range. Temps will remain above normal, especially
the overnight lows, which will run 10-15 deg above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions briefly improved throughout
the region this evening despite the lingering light rain showers.
Given the very moist atmosphere and light flow overnight, widespread
low clouds and fog will develop, and a few locations are seeing
lower stratus form quickly already this evening. The only question
is whether conditions will be predominantly LIFR or VLIFR, as slight
mixing remains possible with light showers as upper shortwaves pass
up the mountain chain, so will lean LIFR most areas with SW to VRB
winds. The convection-allowing models have some better and more
robust convection overnight, but this seems unlikely given the lack
of instability.
Very slow improvement in conditions is expected through Tuesday
morning as abundant moisture remains in place at low levels as
ridging slowly builds aloft. Anticipate recovery to MVFR by early
afternoon, with late day VFR punctuated by periods of MVFR in any
showers or thunderstorms. Light SW surface winds will continue.
Outlook: Moisture will persist over the area through most of the
week, with a diurnal increase in showers and scattered
thunderstorms, and overnight restrictions likely.
Confidence Table...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z
KCLT High 95% High 88% High 92% High 90%
KGSP Low 46% Med 76% Med 73% High 100%
KAVL Med 61% High 80% Med 68% High 98%
KHKY Low 48% High 80% Med 73% Med 70%
KGMU Med 70% Med 74% Med 66% High 100%
KAND Low 48% Med 72% Med 70% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
953 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017
.DISCUSSION...
A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms were well to the
northwest of Burleson, Brazos, Madison, and Houston counties at
9:45 PM. Expect these will continue to slowly move toward the
forecast area. The 01Z HRRR and the 18Z Texas Tech WRF keep the
forecast area free of precipitation until after 4:00 AM. Could
see isolated showers moving onshore into the coastal counties
before anything arrives from the west and northwest. Tweaked the
rain chances for the rest of the evening.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017/
AVIATION.../00Z TAF/
Surface analysis and GOES 16 imagery show pre-frontal trough
located through north Texas/DFW down towards the NW Hill Country
with a line of convection. The actual cold front was located back
from western Oklahoma into west Texas near Lubbock. Ahead of the
front expect area terminals to expect a mix of MVFR/IFR conditions
with low clouds and fog forming. Cold front will catch the pre-
frontal trough tonight and push into the area during the morning
hours. Front should reach KCLL/KUTS around 09-10Z, KIAH/KHOU/KSGR
13-15Z and then along the coast 16-17Z. Hi-res models show
convection developing along the front as it approaches the coast
so will keep VCTS for KLBX and KGLS. MVFR ceilings will be likely
post frontal and could hold on through the late morning to
afternoon hours. Ceilings will improve through the afternoon with
gusty northerly winds.
Overpeck
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017/
DISCUSSION...
Another very warm afternoon where Bush-Intercontinental Airport`s
maximum temperature record of 94 F was achieved by 3 PM with
Galveston not being far off...a degree from tying 2007`s Tmax
record of 90 F. An approaching cold front will be making its way
through the northwestern CWA shortly after midnight tomorrow...moving
across metro shortly after sunrise and then be off the coast by
10 or 11 AM. Early morning (pre-dawn) patchy fog may develop just
downstream of the approaching surface front. Not an overly-impressive
cold nor dry backing air mass but...in relative terms...cool and
dry enough to take us from summer heat to comfortably autumn warm
in less than a day. A mostly overcast morning with scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the lower level front
as it encounters the higher pooling of downstream moisture over
the southern half of the forecast area. Partially clearing through
the day with afternoon ambient temperatures slowly warming into
the middle 70s up north to lower 80s further south. Drier air to
slide in on weakening northerlies early Wednesday with the mid-week
(afternoon) mid-level dry air mix down equating to interior 50 F
dew points/upper 30 to mid 40 min %RHs. Winds veer around the dial
through Thursday and be back onshore by Friday midnight. Nothing
extreme in the post-frontal T/Td field as mid-level temperatures
remain in the upper teens. This will equate to subsequent day
warming from the coolest days of Tuesday-Wednesday back into the
late week average upper 80s.
Slight maritime rain chances this weekend as weak central Gulf
disturbances rotate in from the east under a westward expanding
southeastern U.S. upper ridge. This 5H ridge is forecast to be
unseasonably strong as mid-590dam heights clamp themselves down
on the northern Gulf coast. There should be enough suppression to
counter increasing lower level moisture. Very low weekend rain
chances focused across the coastal counties to account for breeze
activity as the upper 80s are met. The next cold front is slated
for late Sunday or early Monday. 31
MARINE...
The main marine hazard through tonight will remain elevated tides
along the Upper Texas coast before a cold front sweeps off the upper
Texas coast Tuesday. Tide levels are currently running about 1-1.5
feet above normal and this may result in levels peaking at or just
above 3 feet at times of high tide tonight. Have held off on a
coastal flood advisory as overall levels continue to decrease with
time and wave periods are 8 seconds or less at both buoys, but minor
wave run-up may result in isolated issues on Bolivar Peninsula. Tide
issues will come to an end behind a cold front moving off the coast
tomorrow morning as moderate offshore winds become established
behind the front. A Small Craft Should Exercise Caution statement
will likely be needed behind the front Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday morning. Winds are expected to decrease mid-week and
gradually shift from the northeast/east to onshore by this
weekend.
Huffman
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 64 76 58 80 61 / 30 10 0 10 10
Houston (IAH) 72 83 63 80 65 / 20 40 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 78 84 70 80 74 / 20 60 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
943 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm and humid weather will continue much of this
week as high pressure well offshore maintains southerly winds. A
cold front will reach the Carolinas Thursday or Friday bringing
drier and slightly cooler air. A return to fall-like weather
should come early next week with an arrival of a more
substantial cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 930 PM Monday...Earlier showers died completely away
leaving just mid-level clouds around currently. A single
convective shower up near Fayetteville shows we still have
elevated instability present, and model soundings continue to
show we`ll have potential for pop-up showers overnight. Several
models are highlighting the area from I-95 east to Elizabethtown
and Whiteville for the best potential of measurable rain
overnight. Winds have decoupled in clear spots this evening
which necessitated a couple of small downward revisions in
forecast low temperature, mainly near Conway and Marion, SC.
Otherwise changes with this update were minor. Discussion from
630 PM follows...
In a weather pattern more reminiscent of July than October,
we`ve got popcorn showers and thunderstorms firing in the
Florence vicinity, with decaying showers across the Cape Fear
area the result of earlier heavy rainfall over coastal South
Carolina. Some of those rainfall amounts were impressive
earlier: 2-4 inches was reported on a number of mesonet stations
in Myrtle Beach and Surfside Beach, SC, with nearly 2 inches in
Murrells Inlet.
300-500 mb high pressure is parked just off the coast, but
tremendous low-level moisture and warm low-level temperatures
exist for this late in the year. Shower/t-storm activity should
diminish some this evening, however I believe the models when
they show a resurgence of showers overnight as a weak convective
cap around 800 mb dissipates and allows elevated convection to
redevelop as one or two upper level disturbances approach from
the west. PoPs have been increased substantially across
Florence County for the next couple of hours, but elsewhere I
have bumped up PoPs by another 10-20 percent to account for what
should be scattered convection redeveloping. No significant
changes have been made to low temperatures, which will again run
very closer to all-time historic October warmth. Discussion
from 300 PM follows...
Sounding climatology shows that PW values continue to be all-
time high values for the date. Impressive numbers around 2.4
inches show deep layer saturation. RAOBs from CHS and MHX also
showing very weak lapse rates through most of the column also
indicative of the truly tropical nature of this airmass. As such
there has been a bit of randomness as to rainfall distribution,
though the HRRR has had a fairly good day today. This model
shows a decrease in rainfall coverage and intensity this
evening, a seemingly plausible trend. Other major guidance shows
that activity should linger overnight as some channeled
vorticity streaks overhead just west of the offshore mid level
ridge axis. Both the GFS and WRF seem to favor the coast for
this activity but given how low LCLs remain did not add that
detail to the forecast. High moisture content to once again
limit overnight cooling with tonight`s lows not far from
climatological high temperatures and areas that received
rainfall may fog up some especially should clouds break
sufficiently. Tomorrow largely a repeat of today in most
aspects.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Period begins with elongated 5h ridge
over the Southeast and Bermuda High off the coast. Deep tropical
moisture remains in place with precipitable water hovering
around 2 inches through the period. Despite the abundant
moisture there is a lack of forcing and instability.
Temperatures will be well above climo but abundant cloud cover
will limit surface heating during the day while the ridging
aloft tempers any mid-level support. Convection associated with
low level convergence may carry over into the first part of Tue
night before convection wanes. The combination of marginal
heating and low level convergence will lead to another round of
afternoon and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
vicinity of and west of the I-95 corridor. This activity may
slowly move east-northeast, but it is likely to weaken and
dissipate before reaching the coast late Wed evening or Wed
night. High temperatures will continue well above climo with
highs in the low to mid 80s. Lows Tue night and Wed night will
run close to 20 degrees above climo with both cloud cover and
mixing keeping lows in the low 70s.&&
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...A shortwave will ride across the top of
the ridge pushing a weak cold front through the area on Thurs.
Initially it looked like the front would bring cooler weather
but more recent model runs do not have this front modifying the
air mass much. Front loses some of its identity as it moves over
the mountains, but does look like it makes it into the I-95
corridor on Thurs. With such a moist air mass in place, looks
like we should see a decent amount of shower and thunderstorm
activity along and ahead of the front as it moves south. Once
the front passes south, this should put an end to the deep
tropical air mass, but overall, it looks like a several degree
drop in dewpoints from the 70s into the 60s and diminished chc
of pcp.
The mid to upper ridge builds back up from the southwest with
mainly dry mid to upper levels into the weekend but a tropical
wave moves west from the Bahamas which helps to increase and turn
the broad low level flow from NE post fropa on Thurs to a more
easterly direction Fri and Sat. This will keep some low level
moisture present and could mean some clouds and pcp around,
especially as it looks like a coastal trough will become more
enhanced. But, there will mainly be a brief break before next
more substantial cold front comes through early next week with
another round of more substantial shower activity ahead of it on
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 00Z...Exceptionally moist air continues across the
Carolinas. This should result in more MVFR to IFR ceilings
developing overnight as the boundary layer cools and saturates
this tropical moisture in place. Scattered showers and t-storms
in the FLO area now should dissipate, but additional showers
will develop across the area overnight into Tuesday.
Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR conditions are possible during the
mornings Wednesday and Thursday from ceilings and/or reduced
vsby from fog. In addition, pop-up showers each day could
produce brief MVFR/IFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 930 PM Monday...Latest sea heights measured at the buoys
range from 4 feet out at Frying Pan Shoals to 3-3.5 feet
nearshore. Southerly winds 10-15 kt should continue overnight
with perhaps some isolated showers developing after midnight. No
significant changes from the previous forecast. Discussion from
300 PM follows...
Southerly winds to continue through the period as large area of
high pressure remains centered well offshore. SWAN seemed a bit
underdone on seas forecast so went with a blend of WNA and
continuity. This yields a continuation of fairly widespread 4 ft
seas early on with a minimal decrease as one heads to the near
shore regions. By tomorrow a small nearshore/offshore range may
open up.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Southerly flow will continue through the
period as the Bermuda High remains the dominant surface feature.
Weak gradient will keep wind speeds around 10 kt through the
period with seas around 3 ft Tue night into Wed dropping to 2 to
3 ft later Wed and Wed night.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...A cold front will drop south through the
waters Thurs into early Fri. This front will not produce any
great northerly surge as the air mass change will be minimal.
Southerly flow ahead of the front will veer around and then
turn to the N-NE behind the front late Thurs into early Fri. A
minimal NE surge behind it will push seas up from 2 to 4 ft on
Thurs to 3 to 5 on Fri. By Sat, the winds will diminish but will
veer to an easterly direction which will maintain basically 2
to 4 ft with some 5 fters mixed in.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
615 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017
H5 analysis this morning had a strong shortwave over eastern Utah
with 50 to 80 meter Ht falls noted from western Colorado into
northern New Mexico. Upstream of this feature, 100 to 120 meter
rises were noted from southern Idaho into northern Nevada. East of
the trough, swrly flow aloft extended into New England. The
remnants of TS Nate were located over western PA while a massive
high was located across the eastern atlantic. Off the coast of
western Canada, a shortwave was located in the northeastern Gulf
of Alaska with some 100+ meter falls over northern British
Columbia. Across western and north central Nebraska, light rain
continued across the central and eastern Sandhills in association
with an area of mid level frontogenesis in advance of the
disturbance over western Colorado. Some wet snowflakes mixed in
earlier this morning, across the sandhills and western Nebraska.
Although the threat for snow has ended, a cold, wet, raw day
continues with temperatures in the 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017
This evening... Main forecast challenge continues to deal with the
potent mid level low/shortwave crossing the central Plains. Slowly
taper PoP west to east, mainly along and ahead of the main H7 fgen
band. As of 20z, RAP mesoanalysis and radar trends suggest the band
lining up generally from LBF to ONL. Precip rates have dropped and
temps held steady enough to support all rain. Removed all PoP except
corners of Frontier, Custer, and Wheeler counties by 06z, which is a
couple hours slower than RAP and HRRR guidance. NAM forecast
soundings keep some lower/mid level moisture near the WFO GID border
through then.
Overnight... Clearing sky continues across the panhandle and western
Sandhills with lightening northwest winds as the H5 low pushes
eastward across KS. Trended min temps toward the cold MET and MAV
guidance, especially west of OGA to VTN. Farther east, the stratus
will be relatively slow to exit due to proximity of the low and weak
fgen across eastern Neb. Lower confidence for freezing temps
Frontier to Holt counties and made little change to previous
forecast lows there. However, temperatures and near surface moisture
will definitely support frost development CWA wide. Updated the
existing freeze headlines for all zones as lows range from near 20F
invof Pine Ridge to near 33F far east.
Tuesday... Mainly quiet day with large scale subsidence behind the
low and lighter winds from a relaxed pressure gradient. Weak temp
advection at H85 results in below normal temps in the mid to upper
50s. Return flow from a sfc high to switch winds to southerly later
in the day.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017
Tuesday night through Thursday: Temperatures will be the main
forecast challenge in the mid range periods. For Tuesday night,
dry air will remain in place across the forecast area with
overnight dew points in the mid to upper 20s. With light winds
expected, see no reason why to trend temps down into the upper 20s
across the forecast area. This was well below the superblend
forecast which had lower to mid 30s for lows Tuesday night. By
Wednesday the upper level pattern will transition to swrly which
will develop a surface trough of low pressure along the front
ranges of Colorado and Wyoming. Increased southerly winds will
develop downstream of the trough across western and north central
Nebraska. This will result in increased low level warm air
advection leading to highs in the 60s. By Thursday, a shortwave
trough of low pressure aloft will track along the Canadian/US
border. This will force a cold front into the western Dakotas
Thursday. South of the front, H85 temps will rise into the teens.
This will equate to highs in the 70s which will be the warmest day
of the forecast period.
Thursday night through Monday: A cold front will push through the
forecast area Thursday night with highs Friday ranging from the mid
50s in the north to the mid 60s in the south. Little if any,
precipitation will accompany passage of the front as it will push
into a fairly dry airmass. Better chances for precipitation will
arrive Saturday into Saturday night as an upper level trough of low
pressure approaches the central plains from the intermountain west.
Thunderstorms will light up along the frontal boundary which will be
oriented form southern Kansas into Iowa. West of this boundary,
favorable mid level frontogenesis will lead to light precipitation
in the post frontal environment across central and northern Nebraska
Saturday into Saturday night. ATTM, will keep the highest pops
confined to northern and eastern areas initially, transitioning to
all areas Saturday night. The upper level trough will move east of
the area Sunday morning with seasonal and dry conditions expected
Sunday and Monday. Highs Sunday will be in the upper 50s to lower
60s, while highs Monday will be in the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017
VFR is expected all areas tonight and Tuesday.
Radar and satellite indicate an area of developing showers this
evening. This area of rain was nearly stationary and falling from
7000 feet ceilings. The dry air will get deeper this evening and
weaken the area of rain from west to east. Sfc high pressure will
move overhead Tuesday.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Hard Freeze Warning from midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight to 10
AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Tuesday for NEZ004>006-008-009-022>027-035>037-
056>059-069-094.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for
NEZ007-010-028-029-038-070-071.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
550 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017
.DISCUSSION...
The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.
&&
.AVIATION...
A cold front near the Pecos River will pick up speed this evening as
gusty, northerly winds increase to 20-25kt sustained, and gusts
of 35kt or greater will be possible at all area terminals. Low
clouds may move south into northern reaches of the forecast area
overnight, but think dry air in place will aid in dissipating the
clouds, and will go with VFR conditions tonight and during the
day Tuesday. Northerly winds will decrease to 10-15kt late
tonight, but may still be gusty through 10/15Z at some terminals.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017/
Not many changes to the current forecast. WV shows the upper trough
over SW CO/NW NM at 18, but the cold front ended up a little faster
than previously advertised, and fropa`d KMAF right at 17Z, w/little
fanfare other than establishing the high temp for the day.
Fortunately, westerly downslope flow managed to pump the temp up to
86F before the front arrived.
Unfortunately, there is little antecedent moisture in place for the
front to interact with, and rain chances look slim-to-none for the
short term. 12Z KMAF RAOB came in w/a PWAT of 0.37", or only 44% of
normal. Dry air advection will continue thru at least late Tuesday
night, when surface flow veers and return flow resumes.
The cold front will slow due to diurnal heating this afternoon
somewhere invof the Pecos River, then pick up speed after sunset.
Pressure rises north of the front suggest a windy night ahead,
w/minimal high gap winds thru KGDP. Model temp progs suggest nrn
Lea will stay well-abv freezing, w/post-frontal winds to keep things
mixed. Temperatures then begin a slow rebound Tue/Wed,
w/thicknesses/temps topping out abv-normal by Thursday afternoon
under increasingly SW flow aloft.
Next chance of rain looks to be as soon as Friday night, when the
GFS brings a shortwave into the area, under the RR quadrant of a
250mb jet. Chances continue thru the weekend, w/models bringing in
a strong cold front Sunday. Models are wildly out of sync by Friday
night, so details will change as the weekend nears. Temps should
fall blo-normal Sun/Mon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 46 65 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 44 65 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 56 70 56 73 / 10 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 50 67 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 42 59 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 40 64 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 44 70 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 46 65 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 46 65 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 47 66 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Tuesday for
Guadalupe Mountains.
&&
$$
99/99/
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
631 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 402 PM EDT MON OCT 9 2017
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a sw flow aloft across the
Upper Great Lakes between a broad ridge centered over the western
Atlantic and a trough from Hudson Bay through the nrn plains into
the cntrl Rockies. 800-600 mb fgen from ern Nebraska into MN
supported an area of light rain into sw MN and mainly just mid
clouds farther ne toward wrn Lake Superior. At the surface,
Northerly anticyclonic flow prevailed over the nrn Great Lakes as
high pressure over the plains builds toward the area. stronger CAA
into the west has kept temps in the lower 50s while readings had
climbed to around 60 to the lower 60s over the rest of the cwa.
Tonight, With continued CAA and 850 mb temps falling to around -2C
expect lake clouds (water temps around 14C) to spread into the
north. With the interior west will closer to the sfc high, expect
temps to drop into the upper 20s while lake modification and clouds
keep readings in the upper 30s near the Lake and over much of the
north and east.
Tuesday, High pressure will continue to build into the area bringing
another mostly sunny day. However, with 850 mb temps near 0C, temps
will remain in the lower to mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 336 PM EDT MON OCT 9 2017
Overall, a warming trend is on the way through the end of the work
week with temperatures climbing 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
Precipitation chances look scarce, but chances will increase towards
the end of the week and for the weekend.
Tuesday night through Wednesday, a quick moving shortwave will track
across the lower Great Lakes. The main forcing associated with the
shortwave looks to remain just south of the area; however, have
maintained a slight chance for showers across the far south central
as a few showers may make it up into southern Menominee county,
especially early Wednesday morning. Otherwise, skies will become
mostly sunny, giving way to another beautiful, seasonable fall day
across much of the area.
Wednesday night through Friday, return flow out ahead of an
approaching cold front will promote a warm up through the end of the
work week. Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 60s.
Thursday, the warmest areas look to be in locations across the
northern portions Upper Michigan where downslope southerly flow will
aid in warming. We could see a few scattered showers on Thursday,
but with so much dry air aloft opted to leave mentions for the time
being. Much of the day on Friday should stay dry as the deeper
moisture along the advancing cold front and better upper-level jet
dynamics do not arrive until later in the day. Therefore, towards
the end of the day through Friday night chances for showers will
increase as the cold front pushes east across Upper Michigan.
By Saturday, the above mentioned cold front is progged to gradually
slow its southward progression as shortwave energy begins to lift
across the region. This will allow for moisture to lift back
northward through the weekend and a broad area of low pressure
develops along the baroclinic zone. There are some rather large
discrepancies among the GFS and ECMWF in regards to the timing and
strength of this impulse, which will impact what locations will see
better chances for precipitation. The GFS is trending further
south and much faster with the system; whereas, the ECMWF is a
bit further north with a more wound up system. Certainly looks
like some locations across the Western Great Lakes region may see
moderate to heavy rain; however, with it still being a ways out in
the forecast, the details will certainty be fine-tuned as the
week progresses.
Next week it looks like upper-level ridging will build back across
the central CONUS and eventually transition over the Great Lakes
region, which should promote another warming trend next week.
However, this will all depend on how quickly the main upper-level
trough digs east of the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 631 PM EDT MON OCT 9 2017
VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 402 PM EDT MON OCT 9 2017
Cold advection in a nw flow and decreased stability/better mixing
could result in some wind gusts to 25 knots tonight, especially
over the east half of Lake Superior. Otherwise, expect winds 20kt
or less through Friday as high pressure generally dominates
through the period.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Ritzman
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
458 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017
.DISCUSSION...
The October 10-11, 2017 00 UTC TAF discussion follows:
&&
.AVIATION...
Post-frontal stratus (currently across northwest Oklahoma),
1500-2500 ft AGL, will spread southeastward through most
terminals this evening. The exception might be KLAW and KSPS;
stratus may stay north of these terminals. Stratus is expected to
dissipate from west to east tomorrow morning, which will lead to
VFR conditions.
Otherwise, gusty, post-frontal north-northwest winds are expected
to continue through the TAF period.
Mahale
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017/
DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm and strong surface wind potential through
tonight are the main concerns.
No significant changes were made to the previous forecast.
AT 230 pm, a surface low was located just north of Medford,
Oklahoma with a cold front extending south from the low to near
Chickasha, Oklahoma to Waurika, Oklahoma. The low and front will
continue to push eastward in the next several hours.
Severe thunderstorm potential for the rest of this afternoon and
evening has not changed since the 1111 AM AFD update. Still
appears first development of storms will occur near the front and
surface low, probably not far from I-35 between Guthrie and
Blackwell in the 4 to 6 pm time frame as the cap erodes.
Additional storms may form near the front farther south after
6 pm, though the cap will be stronger there. Any storms will
likely begin as supercells with very large hail as the main
hazard as they move northeast.
Still not sure about storm coverage/evolution late this afternoon
and evening. HRRR runs have overall been depicting isolated to
scattered storms forming and occurring well east of I-35 across
eastern Oklahoma after 5 pm, while the 12 UTC ARW/NMM models have
been depicting higher storm coverage as far west as I-35 with
storms organizing into a line 5 to 8 pm. The sparse storm scenario
would support a very large hail and slightly higher tornado
potential while the line of organized storms scenario would
support a higher damaging wind and heavy rainfall threat.
Severe storm potential should diminish after midnight tonight with
weakening instability. However, went ahead and added low chances
for storms (20%) after midnight tonight southeast of I-44 where
some HRRR runs hinted that mid level moisture and instability may
be sufficient to support some weaker high based showers/storms.
Light rain showers may form and occur across mainly northern
Oklahoma tonight, north of a Cheyenne to Perry line, closer to the
mid/upper low. Kept rain chances in the 20-50% range to account
for this activity with the highest chances near Buffalo, Oklahoma
after midnight. Low level temperature model profiles appeared to
be too warm for any snowflakes at the ground. Any rainfall should
remain light and under 0.25".
Surface winds will increase in the cold air behind the cold front
tonight. For now, think most gusts will stay below 40 mph and
thus, below Wind Advisory criteria. Believe the strongest gusts
will occur across the northwest half of Oklahoma where the surface
gradient will be strongest and where more cloud cover will limit
radiational cooling and promote stronger low level mixing.
Much cooler air will move into the area tonight. Went towards the
colder side of guidance lows in many locations, mainly in the
upper 30s in northwestern Oklahoma to around 50 near Durant.
Tuesday, much cooler conditions will occur. Some light lingering
rain showers may occur during the morning hours across the area,
particularly near and north of the Oklahoma/Kansas state line.
Skies will clear west to east as the mid/upper low moves
northeastward and away from the Southern Plains. Highs will
struggle to get out of the 50s in many locations. Temperatures
will average 15-20F below average.
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, frost and perhaps a light
freeze may be possible in some locations, mainly rural low lying
areas across the western and northern part of Oklahoma. Clear
skies, light surface winds, and a surface high will promote
excellent radiational cooling. Generally preferred the colder
side of guidance lows.
Wednesday through next Monday, a pronounced warming trend will
occur through at least early Saturday before a cold front moves
through the area. Highs in the 80s and possibly lower 90s may
occur Friday and Saturday. Low chances for showers and storms may
return with the cold front passage Saturday into Sunday, though
confidence remains low. Cooler weather will likely occur by
Monday.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 45 59 40 68 / 10 10 0 0
Hobart OK 42 62 39 69 / 10 10 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 46 64 41 70 / 10 10 0 0
Gage OK 39 59 34 70 / 30 10 0 0
Ponca City OK 47 55 36 67 / 50 20 0 0
Durant OK 51 67 43 74 / 40 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
30/10/10
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1025 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will remain nearly stationary over central NC
through mid week, with a large high pressure located in the
western Atlantic.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1025 PM Monday...
There is not much going on as far as the radar is concerning this
evening. The GFS and some of the high resolution short term models
were not verifying well, even with all the record PW`s, high dew
points, and temperatures associated with the tropical-like air mass
in place. Still looking for a trigger for later tonight upstream.
There is some hope in that there is a vorticity max upstream over
upstate SC and the HRRR and GFS indicate a large area of showers
will develop over NE GA into western NC, then spread NE remaining
mainly west of RDU, courtesy of a mid level vorticity maximum. There
is just not enough agreement in the near term models to support that
wet solution.
Given lower confidence in the models given the current data - we
will lower POP to slight chance east, low chance west overnight.
Lows should be very close persistence, but just a bit lower than
this mornings record high minimums in the 70s, but still at record
values in the lower to mid 70s, with some breaks in the overcast.
See the climate section below for the daily records.
Fog may be more of an issue in the south and east, given the breaks
in the overcast, light winds, and high surface moisture.
Stratus should be more of an issue in the west, given the extensive
mid clouds now - and the lack of clearing expected for total
saturation at the surface.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM Monday...
Expect status quo, with very little change in the overall pattern,
as the weak surface trough stays just to the N and W of the forecast
area. PW remains anomalously high (over 200% of normal) with low
level flow holding from the S and SW, so scattered showers will be
possible at almost any time. The aforementioned perturbation will
translate NNW into VA Tue morning, as the mid level ridge continues
to build across the Gulf States/Southeast/Carolinas, and this may
result in just enough weak subsidence to limit shower development,
particularly across the southeastern CWA, closer to the mid level
ridge axis. Models all agree on good rainfall coverage Tue, shifting
northward Tue night, although these large scale models may be
overblown with gridscale precip. For now will go with 50-60% pops
Tue, dropping gradually to 30-40% north and 20-30% south Tue night,
all below statistical guidance pops. Skies should start off cloudy
with areas of fog/stratus Tue morning, followed by at least partial
sunshine in most places in the afternoon before clouds fill back in
with heating. More fog and stratus appear likely Tue night with a
warm and humid air mass and light winds. Above normal highs 81-87
and lows 71-76. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...
Airmass over the area will remain very moist Wednesday, but begin to
dry out as a mid level short wave moving across the Great Lakes
tamps down the amplitude of the subtropical ridge along the southern
Atlantic Coast. Resulting westerly flow will dry us out from the mid
levels downward and force the subtropical ridge to retrograde
southwest through late week.
A weak backdoor front associated with the short wave will settle
south, slowing as it becomes oriented more parallel to the mid level
flow, through later Thursday. As a result, expect at least scattered
convection on Wednesday, with PoPs diminishing through Thursday as
the frontal zone lingers in the southeast with drier air filtering
in behind it. Highs both Wednesday and Thursday will reach upper 70s
across the north to low and mid 80s in the south.
Forcing will be very weak Friday and Saturday, but we don`t dry out
completely, with precipitable water remaining from 1 to 1.5 inches.
The surface front will be stalled along the coast with weak high
pressure trying to build down the east coast. We also remain
basically directly beneath the subtropical ridge axis, so expect
only scattered convection driven by diurnal heating. Highs Friday
will be our coolest of the extended period, and above normal, from
75 to 80. Highs will creep up as the airmass modifies while we await
an airmass change (which could come in the form of a decent frontal
passage as early as next Tuesday) - from upper 70s to lower 80s
Saturday to 80 to 85 Sunday and Monday. Mins through the period will
be mostly in the low to mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 755 PM Monday...
24-Hour TAF period: A few showers still linger across Central NC,
however coverage is very isolated. Expect more showers and isolated
storms to develop and move over the region overnight, though there
is low confidence on if/when they would impact any given terminal.
Regardless, there is still high confidence that sub VFR cigs and
visbys will develop at all terminals, starting as early as 02Z and
lasting into the morning hours Tuesday. Expect mainly MVFR/IFR cigs
and visbys, however both could drop into the LIFR range between 10Z
and 13Z. An additional round of showers and storms is expected
during the aft/eve Tuesday, with the usual reduced cigs and visbys
if/where they occur. -KC
Looking ahead: There is a high probability of poor aviation
conditions developing after 00z Wed (Tue evening), lasting through
Wed morning, perhaps improving to MVFR or VFR by Wed afternoon, then
falling again to IFR Wed night/Thu morning as we stay in a moist and
somewhat volatile air mass. MVFR conditions are expected to dominate
through late in the week, although some models are predicting
passage of a backdoor cold front southward through the area Fri,
which would bring drier and less warm/humid air into the area.
Confidence in the details of late-week aviation conditions is lower
than usual. -GIH
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high minimums for October 10:
RDU: 68 (set in 1959)
GSO: 67 (set in 1913)
FAY: 72 (set in 1959)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...mlm
AVIATION...KC/Hartfield
CLIMATE...Hartfield
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1143 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A front stalled over NC will slowly lift north into Virginia
Tuesday. Low pressure and a cold front then moves east into the
mountains by Wednesday evening then off the coast Thursday. High
pressure builds in from the northeast late in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1140 PM EDT Monday...
Showers have been hard pressed in developing and moving north
into the area this evening, so adjusted pops down to account for
this leaning toward a HRRR trend. Otherwise, fog will form
although clouds increasing may limit extent of fog in terms of
how dense it gets.
Previous discussion from early evening...
Forecast is in pretty good shape overall. Did increase coverage
of fog somewhat for the overnight period further south and east
as stalled frontal zone in the vicinity of the central
Carolinas returns northward as a warm front. Still some question
per 18z guidance on how low visibilities become in fog but at
this point dense fog does not look likely attm. Should see
eventual lower and thickening of ceilings from south to north
mainly after midnight, with better radiational cooling to the
north. Any showers appear likely to hold off in NW NC/upper NC
Piedmont counties until at least 10 pm. Relatively warm and
muggy night for early October standards with lows in the mid 60s
to low 70s and dewpoints running only a couple degrees lower
than projected lows.
Previous near-term discussion issued at 250 PM Monday follows...
Weak boundary moves south and stalls over North Carolina this
evening. Weak impulses riding along this boundary within
southwest flow aloft will bring this boundary back into the area
as a warm front overnight into Tuesday. Behind this initial
boundary today is a weak surface ridge. As the warm front lifts
north, it will glide over this ridge creating rain, low clouds
and fog tonight. Precipitation likely to move across NW North
Carolina after midnight, then advance to the hwy 460 corridor
through Tuesday morning. This front will move north of 460
during the afternoon.
PWATS will remain above normal even with the passing of a
frontal boundary today. Environment becomes tropical with the
passing of the warm front tonight and Tuesday with PWATS ranging
from 1.70 to 2.00 inches by the afternoon. Short waves riding
along the boundary and saturated atmosphere will bring a quarter
to a half inch (0.25 to 0.50) of rain to the area over the next
24 hours. Given that this is a warm front with extensive
amounts of cloudiness, instabilities may not be realized for
thunderstorms activity. Can not rule out a few breaks across the
piedmont in the afternoon, therefore will include a slight
chance for thunderstorms in the weather grids.
Expecting some clearing this evening as surface ridge moves
over the area. With the ground being wet and saturated low
levels, areas of locally dense fog is possible. The area of
concern will be north of hwy 460 where surface ridge is more
established and far enough away from stalled boundary`s debris
clouds.
Overnight lows will remain muggy with readings from the mid 60s
to low 70s. With the expectations of rain advancing north over
a surface ridge through the day, Tuesday highs may warm into the
upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM EDT Monday...
Tuesday night low pressure will be over Illinois with front
stalled from the low across Kentucky and Virginia. By Wednesday
the low is over Ohio and a warm front has moved north into
northern Virginia. The associated cold front will cross through
the Mid Atlantic region by Wednesday evening. Staying close to
the timing and placement of the fronts off the 12Z GFS. Amount
of heating will be the driving factor for the coverage and
strength of thunderstorms. Shear and low level convergence will
already be in place. With any decent amount of sun Convective
Available Potential Energy could be up to 1500 J/Kg. Highest
rainfall totals will be north of the region more in line with
where the better dynamics will be tracking.
High pressure begins wedging south behind the low pressure
system on Thursday. Air mass coming in with the high has
slightly lower 850MB temperatures over the region and drier air
above 700 MB Thursday. Lower level for the most part stay moist
with east to southeast wind. Models showing isentropic lift
around 300K with good eastern upslope flow on Thursday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Monday...
Wedge fully entrenched with persistent east to southeast
surface and low level winds on Friday. By Saturday the center of
the high will be over Virginia. Will keep clouds and add some
light upslope rain in the forecast for Friday.
As this high moves offshore Saturday night and Sunday winds
turn back around to the southwest. This will put the region in
the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. Will have
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for Sunday through
Monday along and ahead of the cold front.
A strong cold front on the horizon for Monday. Much cooler and
drier air advertised by the models behind the front.
Temperatures will be above normal through Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 727 PM EDT Monday...
SCT-BKN VFR stratocumulus ceilings initially in post-frontal
regime with quasistationary front now stalled over the Carolinas.
Aforementioned stalled front will lift back northward as a weak
warm front after 04z. This will bring a degradation in flight
categories from MVFR to IFR ceilings and areas of patchy fog,
with intervals of showers along and south of Route 460 and
particularly near Route 58 through sunrise. Fog is likely pretty
much anywhere given anomalously humid conditions for Fall, along
with the significant rainfall experienced yesterday.
Visibilities in fog may be closer to LIFR or even VLIFR north
and northwest of the Blue Ridge (north of Roanoke) where
radiational cooling may be somewhat greater than further south.
Any showers should be light and not be the primary restrictive
element. Winds initially southwest 3-6 kts trending light and
variable as boundary settles into the region overnight into
early Tuesday.
Warm front drifts slowly northeast during the day on Tuesday,
with periods of showers and MVFR/IFR ceilings with VFR
visibility. May even be a thunderstorm but confidence is too
low on development to include in the TAF attm. Ceilings should
become VFR at Lewisburg and Bluefield late, but MVFR to IFR
ceilings likely elsewhere.
Medium to high confidence in winds. Low to medium confidence on
visibilities in fog, medium confidence on ceilings.
Extended Aviation Discussion...
Low pressure in the Ohio Valley spreads a cold front into the
region on Wednesday into Wednesday night, bringing showers and
thunderstorms. A cold-air damming/wedge regime then ensues
behind this feature Thursday into Friday with significantly
degraded aviation conditions possible in this period from lower
ceilings, fog or stratus. Improvement to VFR for Saturday.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS/WP
NEAR TERM...AL/RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...AL/RCS