Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/25/17

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Bismarck ND

 956 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.UPDATE...

Issued at 956 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Removed precipitation mention for this evening, maintained a
chance southwest overnight. Sky cover was tweaked based on latest
satellite imagery with partial clearing occurring west. High res
models redevelop clouds across the west overnight. Not certain
this will happen. Otherwise the forecast remains valid.


UPDATE
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Scaled back further on POPs, otherwise no major changes to the
inherited forecast for tonight. Updated hourly trends with
observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Cool and wet weather continues late this afternoon and evening
with light rain continuing to taper off and push eastward. Most of
state remains on cold side of surface low currently located near
far southeast ND. WV imagery shows deep upper trough centered over
northern Utah with good fetch of moisture continuing to stream
northward into the central and eastern Dakotas. RAP analysis
shows several weak embedded shortwaves in the flow, helping
support a few pockets of light rain across central ND, with best
forcing over eastern ND associated with upper level 120kt jet
right entrance region.

High res models are in decent agreement with rain continuing to
diminish across our area through the afternoon and evening. Will
be another cool night with lows in mid 30s west to low 40s east.
NBM initialized sky cover well this afternoon, including decreased
clouds just northwest of our area, so blended cloud cover forecast
toward NBM for overnight sky cover, which gives some clearing
across the northwest, which could enhance cooling. Have included
patchy frost across portions of the west.

Increased pops across southwest and central ND on Monday as upper
level trough across the west lifts east/northeastward with trough
axis across eastern Montana by 00z Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Continued low pops into Tuesday morning as trough lifts east of
the Dakotas by 00z Wed, while upper level ridge develops across
the western CONUS, putting the Northern Plains in northwest flow
by Tuesday night. Dry weather then expected until late Wed
night/Thursday as embedded shortwave in cyclonic flow aloft
brushes mainly northern and eastern parts of the state, with low
pops in place. Upper ridge migrates eastward late in week,
supporting a warming trend. Early week high temps remain in the
50s with a warming trend to the 60s by Wednesday and approaching
70 by Sat/Sun as ridge axis moves overhead.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)

Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

MVFR/IFR conditions will continue at all sites, with low ceilings
in place through majority of forecast period. Best chance for
improvement to VFR is KISN, which may see ceilings improve this
evening/overnight.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...NH




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service New York NY

 1035 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through the first half of this week.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria is forecast to track north and pass
east of the Carolinas on Wednesday before getting kicked out to
the east by an approaching cold front. The front will move
through Wednesday night into early Thursday. High pressure
builds in for Thursday and Friday. A weak low pressure area
moves through the region Saturday with high pressure returning
for Sunday. Refer to the latest National Hurricane Center
advisories for the official forecast on Maria.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Forecast is generally on track, however backed off on the extent
of cloud cover overnight into Mon morning. Expecting similar sky
conditions as last night with perhaps some stratus making into
the east end of Long Island and portions of New London county
overnight. HRRR seemed to have a good handle on current cloud
cover so it was used for the majority of the night. NARRE
supports this.

Additionally, clear conditions and light to calm winds will be
favorable for fog development late tonight. Thinking extent
should be similar or slightly more widespread than last night
with the same airmass in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Another sunny/warm day expected on Mon, though not quite as
warm as today with onshore flow more prevalent. High temps will
range from the upper 70s/lower 80s near the coast, to mid 80s
most elsewhere, to the upper 80s well inland, still above MOS
guidance.

With another night of onshore flow, low stratus and fog should
be more prevalent as well, mainly inland NW of NYC, and also
across eastern CT/Long Island. Low temps should be near or
slightly cooler than those expected tonight, in the upper 50s
and 60s.

Swells from distant Hurricane Maria will continue to produce
a high rip current risk and high surf.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A strong upper ridge and surface high will be remaining across
the region Tuesday as Hurricane Maria moves east of the
Carolinas. The ridge slowly weakens Tuesday night into Wednesday
as a shortwave digs into the upper midwest and Great Lakes
region. The increasing westerly flow with the trough will steer
Maria eastward from the Carolinas, and into the Atlantic,
Wednesday night through the end of the week. There will be
little moisture from the tropical cyclone and the cold front
moving into the region and will have mainly slight chance to low
chance probabilities. With a continuation of the easterly flow
Tuesday into Wednesday, low clouds and fog, with drizzle, will
be possible. Will include for Tuesday morning only at this time.
Refer to the latest advisories from the National Hurricane
Center for the official forecast on Maria.

Anomalous warmth will remain across the region until the cold
frontal passage, when temperatures return to more seasonal
levels.

The forecast becomes more uncertain after Thursday as a re-
enforcing shortwave moves through the longwave trough and sends
another cold front into the region Saturday. At that time
temperatures may fall below seasonal normals.

Due to long period swells from Maria, there is likely to be a
high rip current risk through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure remains across the region through the TAF period.

VFR through around 06z. Expect similar conditions as last
night...although perhaps MVFR/IFR fog is a bit more widespread
outside of NYC terminals. The stratus may also make it into KGON
overnight as opposed to last night. VFR returns 12z to 14z
Monday morning which will remain for all terminals during the
day Monday.

Light and vrb winds overnight through early Monday morning and
then increase to 5-10 kt out of the E-SE into Monday afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Monday night-Tuesday...MVFR or lower conditions possible with
areas of fog and/or stratus and drizzle outside city terminals.
.Tuesday night-Wednesday...MVFR or lower conditions possible
with patchy fog and/or stratus and a low chance of showers.
.Wednesday night-Thursday...MVFR or lower possible with
isolated to scattered shower activity.
.Thursday night-Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Long period swells are producing 5-ft swells on the outer
portion of the coastal waters E of Fire Island Inlet. Expect
5+ ft swells to reach all ocean waters overnight. SCA for
hazardous seas in effect thru Tue, and those seas should be with
us into late week.

Long period swells will continue to produce hazardous seas on
the ocean waters at least through the forecast period, Friday.

On the non ocean waters winds and seas will remain below
advisory levels until Thursday. Gusty winds develop behind a
cold frontal passage Wednesday night into early Thursday.
Northwest small craft gusts will be possible late Thursday,
Thursday night and into Friday across all the forecast waters at
that time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems anticipated.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     High Surf Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM EDT Monday for NYZ080-081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Tuesday
     for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$