Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/24/17

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
552 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE Two district areas of convection continue across NM late this afternoon. Both areas will continue to shift ewd during the evening hours. MVFR to IFR conditions from either -shras/-tsras or stratus clouds will be likely at KLVS, KTCC and KROW overnight. Dry air will filter into western and central NM into the Rio Grande Valley after sunset, resulting in clearing sky at TAF sites west of the central mt chain. LCL sfc fog is possible mainly east of the central mt chain where moist south to se winds will continue overnight. Very dry air on southwest flow aloft will move in to all areas Sunday. 33 && .PREV DISCUSSION...250 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017... .SYNOPSIS... The first round of storms is moving across the Eastern Plains of New Mexico while producing heavy rainfall, with more forecast overnight. By early Sunday morning, many locales in the Eastern Plains will have received between one and three inches of rainfall. A cold front will push across western portions of the state tonight, bringing in a cooler and drier airmass which will help low temperatures to drop below normal for a couple nights in a row. Another upper level low pressure system will drop down over Arizona around mid week and will bring renewed chances for showers and storms to much of New Mexico through the end of the week. High temperatures will continue below normal mid to late week thanks to abundant cloud cover and rain cooling. && .DISCUSSION... First fall weather event is underway, with a broken line of thunderstorms currently moving northeast across the East Plains and scattered showers and storms in the baroclinic zone across western New Mexico along and just behind the surface cold front. Temperatures behind the front across far western New Mexico have managed to stay in the 50s so far, thanks in part to clouds and light rain. A baroclinic leaf is showing nicely now in the latest satellite imagery, extending from the northern/central Rockies south into northwest New Mexico. Anomalously high PWATs across the Eastern Plains, modeled to be between 1.5-1.7" by 00Z, are contributing to significant rainfall rates. Thankfully, these storms are moving between 35 and 50 mph, so other than training of storms the flash flood potential has yet to materialize. A couple of flood advisories were issued earlier due to heavy rain with amounts between one and two inches. A few storms have likely produced wind gusts up to near 55 mph, but nothing severe so far. Surface based instability from the latest LAPS analysis is not too impressive, with the best shot at severe currently across Roosevelt and far eastern Chaves counties. At 230pm, showers are on the uptrend moving northeast into the Albuquerque Metro, with surface winds ahead already gusting to between 35-40 mph. A few gusts to between 50-55 mph are likely this afternoon in the RGV as these showers move in with the front. Both the latest HRRR and 18Z NAM12 generate another round of storms across the Southeast and East Central Plains later this evening, which may be our flash flood maker given earlier rains likely saturating grounds. Expect storms to persist across portions of the Eastern Plains overnight before moving into Texas early Sunday morning. Storm total rain amounts across the Eastern Plains through Sunday morning will generally range from 1 to 3 inches, although would not be surprised to see isolated totals near 5 inches. Much colder, drier air will move in behind the front. 12z upper air data showed -C at 700mb over Flagstaff with +10C at KABQ. Further northwest under the parent upper low, 700mb temperatures are down to -7C across portions of Nevada. So, this cold front will be noticable and our forecast lows tonight and Sunday night across western New Mexico reflect this as a number of lower elevation locales may see the first freeze of the season. Sunday night looks to be the coldest of the next seven. Meanwhile across eastern New Mexico, a backdoor cold front will drop down Monday and stabilize much of the East Central and Northeast Plains, while Gulf moisture pools across the Southeast Plains ahead of the front. There are some differences in the timing of the front between the latest GFS and NAM, but either way storms will likely trend back up late Monday across at least southeast New Mexico. At the same time, another (although weaker) upper low will close-off to our west and allow the backdoor front to work west across our area, bringing increased moisture to much of central/western New Mexico by Tuesday. Look for renewed chances for showers and storms from mid to late week as this upper low is slow to move out. High temperatures are forecast to continue below normal during this period thanks to additional cloud cover and anticipated rain-cooling. After a fairly dry start to September, it appears the month will end on a wet note. 11 && .FIRE WEATHER... Moisture has streamed north into NM with dewpoints in the 60s on the eastern highlands and plains. Over one inch of rain has fallen around Roswell, about one inch from Fort Sumner to Conchas and Tucumcari, and nearly two inches around Raton so far today. More rain is on the way through much of the night in the east, with one or two more inches possible. Showers and storms in the west will continue into this evening before diminishing and ending before midnight. Good RH recoveries in the west and of course excellent in the east. Lingering showers and storms over eastern NM Sunday will mostly end as dry air blasts east by the approaching dry slot. Humidities will trend much drier as dewpoints fall into the teens to around 20 as far east as the central mt chain. A lack of stronger winds and cooler temps Sunday will the limiting factor for critical fire weather conditions. Dry air, clear skies, and light winds Sunday night will lead to the coldest temps of the season so far for central and western NM. Widespread freezing temps are likely for all the high terrain and elevated plateaus and valleys of northern and western NM. Monday will feature much of the same for western NM with very low humidity and slight afternoon breezes. A back door cold front will surge southward and westward across eastern NM and arrive within the Rio Grande Valley by late in the day. Another round of showers and storms is expected across the central high terrain and portions of eastern NM Monday. Moisture will attempt to surge west across the Continental Divide Tuesday morning while another upper level wave takes shape over the Great Basin. Extended guidance has come into a little better agreement concerning the second closed low that develops. GFS and CMC close it off near Las Vegas, NV Tuesday, while the ECMWF is farther north. The CMC and ECMWF have the closed low over UT by Thursday, while the GFS has it over the four corners region, and much more QPF than the other models Thursday through Friday. But the overall message will be a continuation of the active weather, with rather high humidity, thick cloud cover, cool temperatures and areas of poor ventilation through the end of next week. CHJ && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for the following zones... NMZ526-530>540. && $$ 11
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
645 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .AVIATION... Large area of showers and thunderstorms over western part of forecast area expected to spread east this evening and overnight. Ceilings and visibilities will be highly variable as convective elements more north northeast within the rain shield. Southeast surface winds around 20 kt expected to prevail overnight, with variable and stronger gusts near thunderstorms. MVFR ceilings expected to eventually become prevalent by late tonight as lower levels moisten from continued precipitation. Return to VFR conditions expected mid to late Sunday afternoon. Cockrell && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 458 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017/ DISCUSSION... The main line of showers and thunderstorms has pushed into the western Panhandles. Popcorn showers and thunderstorms have also been streaming northward ahead of the line across the central and eastern Panhandles. This area of storms will bring heavy to very heavy rainfall chances to the area over the next several days and will be discussed more below. As for the severe threat from any of the storms, some storms may become strong to marginally severe, however, with very meager CAPE, miniscule DCAPE, and shear vectors only supportive of multicells to marginal supercells, feel that the threat for severe wind or hail will be very hard to get. The southwest flow aloft responsible for bringing the abundant moisture to the area will continue through all of next week as well. Right now there is an upper level trough in the western CONUS that is digging south. The trough looks to lift and cross the Rockies Monday which will push a surface front through the area and drop high temps 10 to 15 degrees in some places from Sunday to Monday. As the upper level trough ejects into the northern Great Plains on Tuesday, mid and long range models continue to trend that energy will be left behind and form a closed low in the southwestern US. This will continue to maintain southwest flow for our area and allow Pacific moisture to flow in along with shortwaves. This will keep clouds in place and chances for precip across the Panhandles through the week. By week`s end, an upper level high builds into the northern Pacific states, creating a Rex block. This will allow the flow to change to zonal for us and let us finally dry out at the end of the week. Beat HYDROLOGY... Of the CAMs, the HRRR seems to have the best handle on timing of the main wave of precip. All CAMs and and hi-res models indicate the line will continue to move very slowly eastward with precip training northward. Scattered popcorn showers continue to develop and stream northward as well. PWATs remain near to above the 90th percentile. This in conjunction with training storms leads to concerns of flooding or flash flooding issues, and thus the issuance and extension in area of the Flash Flood Watch on previous shifts. Think this area is still valid and will need to be watched for shifting the watch area eastward as the main convective line progresses. Areas could receive 1 to 3 inches of precip over the next few days with isolated higher amounts of up to 5 inches for spots that see the popcorn showers in addition to heavier training areas. Beat && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 66 77 61 70 53 / 80 70 50 70 60 Beaver OK 69 77 64 69 53 / 50 60 70 80 60 Boise City OK 63 76 56 62 47 / 90 50 50 40 40 Borger TX 67 78 63 70 55 / 80 70 50 70 60 Boys Ranch TX 66 79 62 70 52 / 80 60 50 60 60 Canyon TX 65 79 62 71 52 / 80 70 50 70 60 Clarendon TX 68 75 64 71 56 / 40 80 70 80 70 Dalhart TX 64 77 58 66 49 / 90 50 50 50 50 Guymon OK 67 77 61 66 50 / 80 70 60 60 50 Hereford TX 64 77 62 72 53 / 80 60 50 70 60 Lipscomb TX 68 78 64 71 55 / 30 60 60 80 70 Pampa TX 67 75 62 70 55 / 50 70 60 70 60 Shamrock TX 68 79 65 72 58 / 20 60 70 80 70 Wellington TX 69 80 67 74 58 / 20 60 70 80 80 && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for the following zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hansford...Hartley...Moore... Oldham...Sherman. OK...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for the following zones: Cimarron...Texas. && $$ 03/21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
610 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 (This Afternoon through Sunday) Upper air analysis continues to show a large ridge in place over the eastern US with a deep trough over the west. Surface analysis indicates an area of low pressure in southwest Ontario with a cold front extending through Minnesota and into Nebraska. Showers and storms continued today in northwest Minnesota and into the Dakotas behind the surface front, as it remained nearly stationary. Warm air aloft remained over the forecast area today, with 925 mb temperatures in the 25-26C range. While this is not quite as warm as Friday, high temperatures were still able to climb to around 90 throughout the area, with heat indices getting into the upper 90s in many locations. Cumulus has developed throughout the area and even a few showers moved through parts of southeast Minnesota. The HRRR has been consistently showing these showers, and with 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, have added an isolated thunderstorm mention for areas west and north of Rochester through the afternoon. The upper level ridging will remain in place on Sunday with the front/precip remaining well west of the area. 925 mb temperatures will be 1-2C cooler than Saturday, indicating highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 From Sunday night into Monday, the 23.12z models are continuing to slow the eastward progress of the cold front. With much of the forcing and low condensation deficits in the wake of the front, removed the rain chances on Sunday night and delayed the eastward progress of the rain chances on Monday. 0-1 km mixed layer CAPES will climb in the 500 to 1000 J/kg during the afternoon. However, with weak shear, not anticipating any of these storms to become severe. With the cold front moving through the region later, raised the high temperatures some. The greatest increase was along and east of the Mississippi River where the high temperatures were raised anywhere from 3 to 5F. From Monday night into Tuesday, the cold front will move slowly east through the region. With limited instability and convergence along with the best synoptic forcing moving northeast into Ontario, concerned that the rain chances and amounts will continue to decrease. The ECMWF ensemble even hints at a possibility that the front could be even slower. There is a 20 degree difference at KLSE for the high temperatures on Tuesday. The coldest member has a high of 63 and the warmest member has a high of 83. The current forecast high is right down the middle. From Wednesday through Friday... Models are in good agreement with surface high pressure building into the region on Wednesday as the upper-level shortwave departs to the northeast. There is some suggestion in the 23.12Z GFS of a weak upper-level disturbance passing through Wednesday evening. But given the dry air mass associated with the surface high and little to no moisture transport, will maintain a dry forecast. Both the GFS and ECMWF then bring a stronger shortwave down from southern Canada late Thursday into Friday, which should provide enough forcing for a chance of showers. This shortwave will also usher in the coolest air of the season. With 850 mb temperatures falling to 0-2C on Friday, highs should be limited to near 60F. Canadian high pressure is then forecast to build in for the weekend, which would lead to chilly nights and potentially the first frost of the season for our typical cooler spots in Wisconsin. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 A stalled surface boundary from north-central NE into central MN will continue to be the focus for rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, quiet conditions will persist at KLSE/KRST. With the exception of some cirrus, skies will be mostly clear/sunny through Sunday morning. Otherwise, there could be a few cumulus in the 5000 to 6000 ft agl layer Sunday afternoon. Light southerly winds will continue with perhaps a few gusts to around 20 kts at KRST after 24.17Z. && .CLIMATE...Tonight through Sunday Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 It continues to look like some more record high and warmest low temperatures could be in jeopardy from tonight into Sunday. The following are record low temperatures for Saturday (September 23)... Austin MN - 64F in 1940 Charles City IA - 67F in 1930 Decorah IA - 67F in 1937 La Crosse WI - 69F in 1937 Mauston WI - 62F in 1908 Medford WI - 64F in 1968 Neillsville WI - 65F in 1920 Prairie du Chien, WI - 67F in 1968 Rochester MN - 66F in 1920 Sparta WI - 65F in 1937 Winona MN - 64F in 2016 The following are record high temperatures for Sunday (September 24)... Austin MN - 84F in 2007 Charles City IA - 86F in 1935 Decorah IA - 90F in 1937 La Crosse WI - 92F in 1891 Mauston WI - 85F in 1984 Medford WI - 89F in 1908 Neillsville WI - 86F in 1908 Prairie du Chien, WI - 92F in 1984 Rochester MN - 88F in 1937 Sparta WI - 84F in 2008 Winona MN - 89F in 1935 The following are record low temperatures for Sunday (September 24)... Austin MN - 63F in 2016 Charles City IA - 68F in 2007 Decorah IA - 65F in 1958 La Crosse WI - 71F in 1891 Mauston WI - 63F in 1958 Medford WI - 64F in 1920 Neillsville WI - 69F in 1930 Prairie du Chien, WI - 72F in 1930 Rochester MN - 67F in 1886 Sparta WI - 64F in 1958 Winona MN - 64F in 2015 && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...Boyne/MAH AVIATION...Rogers CLIMATE...Boyne
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1025 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain in place over the region overnight. A weak back door cold front will approach from the north Sunday morning and cross the region Sunday afternoon and evening. After stalling just south of the region late Sunday night, the front will then lift back north across all of the region on Monday as a warm front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 1020pm Update... Added isolated showers and increased sky cover from about Houlton north late tonight and early tomorrow morning, as run after run of the HRRR and RAP indicate a bit of light shower activity, and they seem to have a decent handle at present on this incoming light shower activity that is presently NW of Quebec City. Previous Discussion... Skies will remain mclr across the Rgn going into the eve hrs with hi/mid cldnss from Cntrl QB movg into the N hlf of the FA and low cldnss and patchy fog movg onshore to Downeast areas from the Gulf of ME both late tngt. Ovrngt lows will be quite mild, despite a sig drop from this aftn`s hi temps due to how unseasonably warm hi temps were tdy. Sun will begin ptly to msly sunny across the Rgn aft early morn patchy fog dissipates across Downeast and E Cntrl ptns of the FA. A weak backdoor cold front from Cntrl QB will move Swrd into Nrn ptns of the area by mid aftn working Swrd to the coast by ovrngt as an upper lvl disturbance works ESE ovr the Rgn. With sfc dwpts surging well into the 60s ahead of this front, there will be enough instability for isold to sct tstms mainly along the Ern ME/NB border trailing SW into interior Downeast areas at cnvctv initiation tm with fcst max SREF SBCAPEs are apchg 1000 J/Kg ovr these areas attm. Given only modest mid lvl lapse rates, we will hold off on enhanced tstm wording attm, although it should be noted that there is some mid to upper lvl shear as indicative of of 25 to 35 kt of 0-6Km bulk shear. Prior to tstm development, there should be ample sunshine, spcly ovr Cntrl and interior Downeast areas when combined with downslope winds and record fcst aftn max 925mb of mid 20s deg C, hi temps will likely apch 90 deg ovr low trrn lctns there and well in the 80s ovr low trrn lctns to the N. Coastal Downeast lctns will likely be tempered by a shallow sea breeze circulation. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The summerlike conditions will continue through early next week as a large upper ridge remains parked to to our south and west. A frontal boundary will waver across the state through the period, but don`t expect much more than a few showers or thunderstorms from this each afternoon. Temperatures will be very mild, with daytime highs reaching well into the 70s and 80s. Tuesday will be the warmest day, with some locations approaching 90. Dewpoints will be on the rise as well, so nights will be on the muggy side. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... After another muggy night Tuesday, showers and a few thunderstorms are possible Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the west. This front will cross the area Wednesday night into Thursday, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass for later next week. High pressure will briefly build over the area later Thursday through Friday, but showers will threaten again Saturday as the upper trough swings across the area. Hurricane Maria looks to stay well to our south Thursday and Friday, though it may produce long-period swell along the coast. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR is xpctd at the TAF sites tngt thru Sun. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions will prevail through the daylight hours, but IFR/LIFR will be possible in patchy fog 00z-13z each day. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday afternoons, but the better chance for precipitation and possible lowered vis/ceilings will be after 16z Wed as a cold front approaches from the west. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: We finally dropped the SCA for seas ovr our outer MZs with wv hts at the Ern ME Shelf and Jonesport Buoys msly at or below 5 ft, with the trend xpctd to cont to subside a little more ovr the next 6 hrs. We kept close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts for this ptn of the fcst with primary wv pds varying from 8 to 10 sec from residual swell energy from Jose to 12 to 16 sec from long distance swell radiating from Maria. ST cld cvr and areas of marine fog will likely work back toward the coast ovrngt and then back offshore during the late morn and aftn hrs. Lastly, we will likely need another paddle risk beach statement for area beaches for Sun due to the unseasonably warm air temps in close proximity to near shore waters. SHORT TERM: Seas will build to 4 to 6 feet early next week, so a Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas may be needed. Otherwise, the only concern will be patchy fog which will reduce visibility to 1-3SM at times. && .CLIMATE... Record high temps are likely at multiple locations Sunday afternoon. Current records for this date are: Sunday September 24th Caribou.......80 deg set in 1958 Bangor........88 deg set in 1930 Houlton.......81 deg set in 1958 Millinocket...86 deg set in 1920 && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Foisy/VJN Short Term...Hastings Long Term...Hastings Aviation...Foisy/VJN/Hastings Marine...Foisy/VJN/Hastings Climate...VJN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
924 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 924 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Band of jet induced N-S oriented precipitation continues to march east across the CWA this evening. Precipitation totals have generally held in the 0.25-0.4" range thus far. Latest HRRR depicts this band slowly marching east thru the panhandle overnight. There is some suggestion that the SE Wyoming plains may see an additional band developing before midnight. Have boosted precipitation chances along this band during the overnight period. Will be adjusting precipitation chances downward for areas west of this band with the next update before 10A. Dense fog advisory has been issued over the I-80 summit as recent observations and webcams show very limited visibilities. Given the earlier rain, precip coming to an end as well as heavier than normal travel expected along this corridor over the next few hours, felt a heightened level of messaging was warranted. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 337 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Water vapor imagery shows the closed upper low spinning across eastern Nevada with good upper level divergence spreading over the CWA. The short term models are in good agreement at showing deep layer lift increasing over areas along and west of the Laramie Range this aftn, and then spreading over the plains from late aftn through the evening. Raised PoPs through 06Z, with likely/categorical PoPs over almost the entire CWA. Wet bulb zero heights and snow levels will remain around 10500 ft through the early evening, so any accumulating snows should be confined to the higher peaks of the Snowy Range through tonight. However, cannot rule out snow mixed with rain down to 8500-9000 ft in pockets of moderate to heavy precip. The best forcing will shift eastward into the western Nebraska Panhandle after 06Z, with a diminishing coverage of precip by late tonight especially over southeast WY. Upper low will move into central Utah by Sunday morning, with colder air aloft moving into areas west of the Laramie Range. By Sunday aftn, 700mb temps will be around -1C over Albany/Converse counties with snow levels dropping to generally 9000 ft. As precip chances increase once again by late Sunday morning into the aftn over western zones, will likely see a better chance of accumulating snow on some of the mtn roads, especially in the Snowy Range. Night shift may have to consider a Winter Weather Advisory for some of the mtn zones for Sunday aftn/evening. It will be another very cool day with highs a good 20-25 degrees below normal. Upper trough will weaken and lift across Wyoming on Monday. Isolated/scattered showers will be possible, mainly over southeast WY through the day. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Friday) Issued at 337 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Monday night...As the trough aloft slowly begins to exit our counties, will see a slight chance of showers over our northern and eastern counties in the evening, then mostly dry after midnight. Tuesday...Will be dry and warmer as a drier airmass invades our region along with warming temperatures aloft. Wednesday...Warming trend continues as low level temperatures warm under cyclonic flow aloft. Continued dry as the low and mid levels remain relatively dry. Thursday...Temperatures nearly the same or slightly warmer than Wednesday as a weak cold front moves over our counties and the airmass recovers quickly. Friday...Nearly stationary weak upper low remains over the Four Corners, with some mid level moisture working northward into our southern counties, helping to produce a slight chance of afternoon showers over our Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges, dry elsewhere. Temperatures nearly the same or slightly warmer than Thursday, through warming limited by increasing cloud cover and low level south winds. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 400 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017 IFR through 15Z Sunday, then MVFR. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 337 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017 No fire weather concerns through early next week. It will be cool and cloudy through Monday with widespread wetting precipitation expected. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MDT Sunday for WYZ116-117. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...CAH SHORT TERM...ZF LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...RUBIN FIRE WEATHER...ZF