Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/11/17

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service La Crosse WI

 551 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017

Scattered/isolated north-south running showers (with a strike of
thunder here and there) currently extends from central MN into
western IA. The convection was associated with a 500 mb shortwave
which was tracking eastward across the region and weak instability.
The shortwave will continue to weaken as it moves into high pressure
across the Great Lakes, along with losing its meager instability. A
few of the short term models suggest a few showers could move into
parts of southeast MN/northeast IA later this evening, but likely
coming out of a mid level deck. Probably sprinkles at best. For now
will hold off on adding any pcpn chances and monitor.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017

Models still pointing to a prolonged period of dry conditions
with broad upper level ridging to zonal flow along with weak high
pressure at the surface. Remnants of Irma are still progged to
lift into the tn/oh river valleys by Tue- Wed, getting a shove
east thu, thanks in part to a 500 mb trough crashing into the west
coast. That said, Irma remains a bit of a wild card - if she
shifts more north, we could end up under a lot more clouds, along
with a rain threat.

That west coast trough looks to push east for next weekend, with the
models differing in positioning/timing on the trough. The latest GFS
is slower, stronger and farther north compared to the EC - which is
more south, not as strong, and a bit faster. Both agree that there
would be a pretty good shot for showers/storms for the forecast area
this weekend, favoring northern parts of the region.

Weather pattern favors mild to warm temperatures for early/mid
Sep...with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s through the upcoming
work week.

All in all, a real nice stretch of early fall weather for the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 551 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a short wave trough over
Minnesota this evening that will lift to the northeast overnight.
The best forcing with this wave will pass by to the north this
evening and not expecting any impact other than some high level
clouds. The 10.21Z HRRR and 10.19Z CR-HRRR suggest that there will
be some additional development in the Interstate 35 corridor late
this evening. Looking at the 10.21Z RAP forecast soundings, any
clouds that develop would be around 10 thousand feet with a dry
layer below for not much more than some sprinkles. For now, will
not include this in the forecast and monitor trends through the
evening. Once the short wave trough moves by, the surface high
over the Great Lakes will once again become the dominant feature
and give mostly clear skies with south winds for Monday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rieck
LONG TERM....Rieck
AVIATION...04




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Bismarck ND

 923 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017

.UPDATE...

Issued at 923 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017

Forcast remains on track, no changes at this time.


UPDATE Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017

Cold front continues to push southeast across central ND. A wind
shift to northwest will accompany the front, gusty at times early
to mid evening until the nocturnal inversion forms and cuts off
stronger winds aloft from mixing down.

Increased sky cover north where satellite clearly shows a large
BKN deck of upper clouds over the next few hours this evening.
Will also maintain patchy smoke tonight southwest into south
central based on the latest HRRR smoke model.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017

A cold front currently stretching from Sherwood south to Glen
Ullin and into central South Dakota will continue moving east this
afternoon, clearing the James River valley shortly after 06z
Monday. Quite a density gradient as dewpoints are in the lower 60s
ahead of the front, with mid and upper 40s coming in behind the front.
Although there could be a brief, isolated shower, the high resolution
models are scarce in terms of any significant reflectivity`s
associated with the front through this evening. With plenty of dry
air in the lower levels, will go along with that idea and keep
the forecast dry. Behind the cold front, smoke/haze evident
across the west per surface observations. Per NDFD Air Quality
surface smoke forecast, have expanded the patchy smoke through
12z Monday. Lows tonight in the upper 40s far north to 50s elsewhere.
Plenty of sunshine Monday and not as warm behind the front, with
highs in the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017

Big swing in high temperatures still on track along with an unsettled
weather period, Wednesday through Saturday. Precipitation totals
during the Wednesday through Saturday period are forecast to range
between 0.50 inches to 1.00 inches. Prior to the precipitation,
expect a hot and dry day Tuesday, with highs in the mid 90s. Have
utilized the GEF`s Plumes and went with the Mean Temperature. This
looked like a target of opportunity as the forecast gridded data
had mostly upper 80s. Thermal ridge overhead with H850 temps in
the +24C to +26C should yield highs in the mid 90s. Near record
high temperatures Tuesday for western and central ND. A cold
front will be shifting from west to east during the day, with
adequate mixing to well above 850mb. By Wednesday, a pattern
change begins with a trough digging across the Pacific northwest,
resulting in a southwesterly flow into North Dakota. Multiple weak
shortwaves begin pushing into the area Wednesday, with the
strongest shortwave trough and associated cold front sliding
through Friday/Friday night. This is when the highest chances of
precipitation occur. H850 temperatures cool to +2C to +6C Friday
through Sunday. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s all
three days. Chances for thunderstorms should mainly be confined to
southern ND Wednesday through Friday based upon the GFS
instability parameters.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)

Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017

A cold front will continue to push south and east, reaching KJMS
by 05-06z Monday. Otherwise VFR conditions though with some
patchy smoke this evening southwest and south central.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...NH




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO

 622 PM MDT Sun Sep 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Sun Sep 10 2017

Scattered storms formed over all higher terrain around 11 am as
expected, but have stayed pretty anchored over the mountains.
Storms appear to be collapsing as they drift to the north-
northeast under a south-southwest flow, thanks to a high pressure
ridge to our east. Expect gusty outflow winds to 30 mph with brief
moderate rain in stronger cells through this evening. Most
activity is expected to wind down late this evening with some
isolated showers continuing overnight as a stretching deformation
zone works over the area as the high begins to shift back to the
west. As far as haze and smoke is concerned, still some subtle
haze in the area but much improved compared to the past week. The
latest HRRR smoke model shows smoke staying confined to the
wildfires in northwest Colorado near Hayden and Steamboat Springs
areas and pretty localized at best. Did not appear widespread
enough to mention in the forecast and expect more improvement
through the coming week.

Monday appears to be a transition day as southerly flow still
remains over the region, keeping decent moisture with Precipitable
Water (PW) values in the 0.75 to 1.0 inch range. This should
maintain the threat for afternoon showers and storms over the
higher terrain. The remnants of Hurricane Irma will be moving
through the southeastern states, helping to push the ridge of high
pressure further west with the closed low off the California
coast retrograding to the west as well. This should result in a
downturn in storm activity throughout the day on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Sun Sep 10 2017

The ridge of high pressure will be sitting directly overhead by
Tuesday, with a closed low off the coast of California to our
west, and the remnants of Irma spinning over the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys to our east. This Omega Blocking
pattern will keep the weather drier with a downturn in storm
activity Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon with enough moisture
being recycled underneath the ridge to provide afternoon storms
mainly over the higher terrain and warm, above normal
temperatures.

By Wednesday, a stronger low pressure system will be diving into
the Pacific Northwest. This stronger flow will allow the closed
low off the California coast to open up and track east through the
Great Basin by Wednesday evening. This low will move across
eastern Utah and western Colorado sometime during the day on
Thursday. While there are some timing differences between models,
the overall consensus appears to be increasing moisture in
southwest flow ahead of this trough Wednesday evening with trough
passage Thursday afternoon. This leads to increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms beginning Wednesday evening through the
overnight and into Thursday afternoon/evening as additional
convection fires in the afternoon. Increased PoPs during this
period as well as winds as it will be a bit breezy as H7 winds
increase to about 20 to 30 kts. A weak 60 kt jet streak will also
punch into the Four Corners region at the base of this trough,
providing additional support for convection and breezy conditions.

Cooler and drier air will move in behind this trough with a weak
60 kt jet still overhead by Friday. PW follows suit with values
dropping below 0.5 inches. A secondary shortwave looks to move
through behind this main trough on the backside of the Pacific NW
low with the GFS keeping it north and the EC clipping our northern
CWA. Expect more breezy conditions Friday with little in the way
of precipitation. Friday night temperatures in the northern
valleys may be something to watch for as lows dip into the 30s.
Uncertain if any areas will see near or below freezing
temperatures, but that all depends on how far south it takes this
secondary shortwave on Friday. The weekend overall looks dry and
cool with below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 617 PM MDT Sun Sep 10 2017

Showers and thunderstorms continue at this hour with KEGE, KTEX,
and KASE being under the gun. This convection will continue for a
few more hours before stratifying out. Some gusty winds have been
noted near these storms reaching 30 to 35 MPH or so. SCT to BKN
skies are expected overnight but will only bring mid to high level
ceilings. Expect another round of convection tomorrow with more
showers and storms expected. A few TAF sites may be affected but
no mention in TAFs yet.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGR




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Green Bay WI

 625 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017

The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show high
pressure centered over the central Great Lakes. Southeast flow off
Lake Michigan produced another cu field along the lakeshore, which
turned broken for a short period late this morning. Weak shortwaves
are moving over the northern Mississippi Valley where scattered
light showers are occurring.  Otherwise, with the surface high
slowly moving to the eastern Great Lakes, clouds and temps are the
main forecast concerns.

Tonight...Surface high pressure will slide east tonight while the
shortwave energy shears apart as it lifts into Lake Superior.  The
shortwave will run into a much drier airmass as the tail clips north-
central WI late.  The pwat/instability axis looks to remain well
west of the region, so expecting only scattered mid-clouds to
accompany the shortwave.  Mostly clear conditions will be present
over eastern WI.  Warmer lows with a light south wind, with readings
ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s.

Monday...The shortwave will exit to the northeast during the
morning, with only scattered mid clouds over northern WI.  Then a
weak cold front will move across northwest WI in the afternoon.
Without any upper support and only weak convergence, no precip is
expected.  But the southerly winds will continue to bring in warmer
temps.  Highs ranging from the low to middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017

An upper level ridge from the southwestern states to the western
Great Lakes will keep dry and mild weather in central and northern
Wisconsin through much or all of this week.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017

Expect VFR flight conditions to prevail through the TAF period,
with some mid-level clouds arriving from the west overnight, and
scattered cumulus clouds during the day on Monday. The only
concern is the potential for LLWS at the RHI TAF site late
tonight/early Monday, as southwest winds increase to 30 kts just
off the surface.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

 909 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 909 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017

Updated to include 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017

An upper trough continues to track northeast across Minnesota,
and isolated showers have continued to develop from southwest and
south central Minnesota into the northeast. The trough has been
weakening somewhat today, and though there is decent instability,
the showers have had a tough time staying together in southern
Minnesota. There is better lift farther north, and the showers in
central Minnesota have been able to persist. So pops for this
evening are highest in central and east central Minnesota into
part of northwest Wisconsin. With the weakening trough departing
southern Minnesota, it does not look like there will be much
precip from there to west central Wisconsin, though the RAP and
HRRR do develop some showers in southern MN late this afternoon
and evening. But most of the CAMs do not develop any precip in
this area.

The surface front is lagging quite a bit, extending across
western North Dakota into northern Wyoming at midday. Models are
in decent agreement about it arriving in northwest Minnesota late
tonight, and entering northwest Wisconsin Monday evening. It will
be weakening as it moves toward the Upper Midwest. With upper
ridging over our area on Monday, and south winds turning
southwest in advance of the front, temperatures will be quite
nice for mid September. Upper 70s to lower 80s are in the
forecast for the entire area, and it is entirely possible that
highs will be even warmer in western Minnesota ahead of the front.
All in all, tomorrow will be a very nice day indeed.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017

Once tonight`s system moves off to the east, an upper ridge will
build and dominate the Upper Midwest through most of the week. As
the upper ridge controls the weather pattern, and 85h temperatures
continue to moderate, temperatures will average well above normal
this coming week. Currently models have the thermal ridge further to
the northwest across the Dakotas, and northwest Minnesota which
leads to higher temperatures in this area. Therefore, the highest
temperatures will occur in MPX northwest forecast area, compared to
the southeast. However, the highest temperatures are relative as all
areas will be well above normal for mid September.

By late Thursday/Friday, a large mean trough will move eastward
across the Pacific Northwest, and into the inter-mountain region.
Although all three models EC/GFS/GEM support the change in the
weather pattern late this week, there are differences in the
strength of the upper trough and speed. This will lead to
differences in timing and location of the surface features once
the trough moves across the plains. These differences will lead
to changes in precipitation chances/intensity/coverage, as well as
temperatures.

For those planning this week, the best chance of dry and warm days
will occur before Thursday. For those planning on more
precipitation, the best chance will occur next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 909 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017

There are not substantive changes in thinking or expectations from
the 00Z issuance. We will see a frontal boundary work into the
area overnight into Monday, but essentially fall apart as it does
so with high pressure then building. Winds will veer through the
period.

KMSP...TAF reflects expectations with no concerns of note.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

.Tuesday...VFR. Variable wind less than 5 kt.
.Tuesday night...VFR. South wind 5 kt or less.
.Wednesday...VFR. South wind 5 kt or less.
.Wednesday night...VFR. Southeast wind around 5 kt.
.Thursday...VFR. Southeast wind increasing to 10 to 20 kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Pueblo CO

 252 PM MDT Sun Sep 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM MDT Sun Sep 10 2017

Under the upper level ridge that is over the state, a weak
disturbance will be slowly drift over CO tonight and Monday.  It
will move from central CO tonight, to over east central CO on
Monday.  This disturbance could aid in keeping a few showers going
into the late night hours over the central mtns and over the Pikes
Peak region, as the NAM and GFS suggest, but the HRRR ends all pcpn
over the forecast area by 07Z.

Residual moisture and daytime heating on Mon will again lead to the
development of showers and thunderstorms.  The mtn areas will
probably see a few areas of pcpn develop in the morning hours, with
shower/tstm coverage increasing in the afternoon across all the mtns
and spreading over the I-25 corridor.  High temps are expected to be
a few degrees cooler on Mon, but still a little above average acrs
the southeast plains, and around average in the high valley
locations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 252 PM MDT Sun Sep 10 2017

Monday night through Wednesday...Upper level ridge forecast to
remain over the CWA stay across the region, with generally weak
flow aloft across Central Rockies. Mid and upper level moisture
to remain in place, with mainly afternoon and evening showers and
storms primarily across and near the mountains. Monday could be
the best day for convection across the I-25 corridor and the
eastern plains with weak upslope flow leading to increased low
level moisture into eastern Colorado. Models are indicating CAPEs
up to around 1000 j/kg across the plains Monday afternoon,
however, with the weak flow aloft, shear profiles are not
favorable for organized strong storms. Temperatures forecast to be
at or slightly above seasonal through Wednesday.

Thursday-Saturday...Upper ridge across the Rockies forced south by
incoming trough. Southwest flow aloft projected across the region
into early next weekend. The trough slowly lifts out across the
Great Basin and Northern Rockies, and there seems to be enough
moisture for daily showers and storms, mainly over and near the
higher terrain. Drier air within the southwest flow moving into
the region for later next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued
at 252 PM MDT Sun Sep 10 2017

VFR conditions are expected at KCOS, KPUB and KALS thru the next 24
hrs.  These forecast sites will all have the possibility of
showers/tstms moving into the vicinity this evening, and again in
the mid to late afternoon hours on Mon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...28




...Update to aviation forecast discussion...



 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017

The closed mid/upper level low pressure is currently located over
the northern plains and upper Midwest. The associated trough axis
extends to the south-southwest with the southern most portion over
southern NE. A storm complex from last night continues to persist
over far north central KS. Some of the models are showing the
supporting isentropic lift should weaken in the next few hours. The
HRRR has also consistently depicted these showers and storms
dissipating this afternoon, but it could reach as far south as I-70.
The HRRR ensembles all show that by 22 to 23z there will be no more
precipitation left. Clouds from this complex has spread across the
area and there is thin smoke aloft. Later tonight clouds will clear
out and winds will be light and variable. A surface ridge will
extend from the Great Lakes down to southeast KS. Models are
indicating calm winds will reach up to 850 mb. This should reduce
the chances for mixing in the boundary layer. Therefore patchy
ground fog will be possible around sunrise especially in the low
lying areas across eastern KS.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017

Upper high over the Rockies into the Plains remains in place through
Tuesday as the remnants of Irma move northwest into western
Tennessee. Thereafter an upper level trough will move on shore
Wednesday and weaken as a stronger large scale trough replaces it
along the west coast Thursday. During this time period expect dry
conditions to continue. Late Thursday night there is a small chance
of showers and isolated Thunderstorms as a weak wave moves northeast
and within the low level jet and moisture axis. The pattern
transitions to a southwest flow across the Central Plains ahead of
the Pacific northwest trough late week. Over next weekend the upper
trough is forecast to move east northeast into the Dakotas which
will bring a cold front southeast into north central and northeast
Kansas Saturday night and across the rest of east central Kansas on
Sunday. Better forcing will be north of the forecast area, but there
may be enough upper level support, forcing along the cold front as
well as moisture and warm advection for scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Expect highs in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the
60s for much of the extended, with cooler temperatures in the
lower 80s next Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017

VFR conditions will be the rule for this cycle. Ground fog
development is possible with light winds and clear skies, with
more favorable wind conditions at the eastern terminals, though
some mixing of the boundary remains through the night. Given
recent days, will go ahead with MIFG at TOP and monitor trends.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...65



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Las Vegas NV

 216 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Shower and thunderstorm activity through mid-week
will be limited to mainly southeast California and the higher
terrain of the southern Great Basin and northwest Arizona. Winds
will begin to increase Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons as a low
pressure system moves into the region. This will signal a possible
change to a more fall-like weather pattern late this week with drier
and occasionally breezy conditions.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Wednesday night.

Much calmer day than what we have seen the past two days. Heading
into this evening. Operational HRRR as well as the HRRRx have been
consistent showing isolated showers/thunderstorms over eastern
Mohave County into this evening before storms dissipate by 8 pm this
evening.

For Monday-Wednesday. Closed low presently well off the southern
California will be feature of interest. The low is progged to start
drifting back north off the the central California tonight-Monday,
then remain nearly stationary off the central California Coast
through Tuesday. Low finally starts to fill/open up and move inland
Wednesday in response to deeper low digging into the Pacific
Northwest. NAEFS PW standardized anomaly data shows a slight
increase in PW values in western Inyo County Monday/Tuesday.
Elsewhere, don`t see any new injection of moisture from the south so
trough will being acting on moisture currently in place. Broad area
of modest instability areawide along with ascent associated with the
upper low will generate scattered showers/thunderstorms primarily
focused in Inyo County Monday and Tuesday. With additional dynamics
provide by the upper low do expect a few showers and thunderstorms
to persist through Monday night and Tuesday night. Better dynamics
start to shift east into southeast Nevada and northwest Arizona
Wednesday. May see some showers/thunderstorm last through Wednesday
night in northern Mohave County, otherwise drier air will start
sweeping in from the west Wednesday night. South-southwest breezes
will be a tad stronger each day while temperatures hover near
seasonal normals.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Saturday.

The Upper-Level low will continue to open up and eject out of the
area on Thursday, leaving a breezy afternoon with below normal
temps. A mean trough will remain in place over the region through
the weekend with rather pleasant conditions for most as temps
continue to run a few degrees below normal with afternoon breezes.

A tropical system is forecast to develop south of the Baja Peninsula
over the next few days. Current forecasts keep the system well south
of the area, with sheared remnants and moisture remaining well to
the east of the area under zonal to southwest flow.

If current forecasts remain in place, Las Vegas may well have
already seen the last 100 degree day of 2017. With a more fall-like,
trough-ridden pattern, expect temperatures near or just below
normal. The average last 100 degree day in Las Vegas is September
16. 100 degree highs have occured as at as October 4 (1947).
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...East-northeast wind up to 10 kts into
early evening, then decreasing as winds will return to a west or
southwest direction overnight. Winds on Monday will start out
easterly but we may see the direction want to sway more from the
southeast in the late afternoon. Isolated showers/storms will be
possible, mainly over the Spring Mountains and in the Beatty and
Daggett corridors Monday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California... North or an easterly winds at 5-15 kts in most areas
this afternoon. A few showers/storms will be possible, mainly across
NW Arizona. Similar conditions are expected Monday. CIGS with shower
activity will mainly be in the 7-11 kft range.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Pierce
LONG TERM.............Steele

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