Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/11/17

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
551 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Scattered/isolated north-south running showers (with a strike of thunder here and there) currently extends from central MN into western IA. The convection was associated with a 500 mb shortwave which was tracking eastward across the region and weak instability. The shortwave will continue to weaken as it moves into high pressure across the Great Lakes, along with losing its meager instability. A few of the short term models suggest a few showers could move into parts of southeast MN/northeast IA later this evening, but likely coming out of a mid level deck. Probably sprinkles at best. For now will hold off on adding any pcpn chances and monitor. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Models still pointing to a prolonged period of dry conditions with broad upper level ridging to zonal flow along with weak high pressure at the surface. Remnants of Irma are still progged to lift into the tn/oh river valleys by Tue- Wed, getting a shove east thu, thanks in part to a 500 mb trough crashing into the west coast. That said, Irma remains a bit of a wild card - if she shifts more north, we could end up under a lot more clouds, along with a rain threat. That west coast trough looks to push east for next weekend, with the models differing in positioning/timing on the trough. The latest GFS is slower, stronger and farther north compared to the EC - which is more south, not as strong, and a bit faster. Both agree that there would be a pretty good shot for showers/storms for the forecast area this weekend, favoring northern parts of the region. Weather pattern favors mild to warm temperatures for early/mid Sep...with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s through the upcoming work week. All in all, a real nice stretch of early fall weather for the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 551 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Water vapor satellite imagery shows a short wave trough over Minnesota this evening that will lift to the northeast overnight. The best forcing with this wave will pass by to the north this evening and not expecting any impact other than some high level clouds. The 10.21Z HRRR and 10.19Z CR-HRRR suggest that there will be some additional development in the Interstate 35 corridor late this evening. Looking at the 10.21Z RAP forecast soundings, any clouds that develop would be around 10 thousand feet with a dry layer below for not much more than some sprinkles. For now, will not include this in the forecast and monitor trends through the evening. Once the short wave trough moves by, the surface high over the Great Lakes will once again become the dominant feature and give mostly clear skies with south winds for Monday. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rieck LONG TERM....Rieck AVIATION...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
923 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 923 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Forcast remains on track, no changes at this time. UPDATE Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Cold front continues to push southeast across central ND. A wind shift to northwest will accompany the front, gusty at times early to mid evening until the nocturnal inversion forms and cuts off stronger winds aloft from mixing down. Increased sky cover north where satellite clearly shows a large BKN deck of upper clouds over the next few hours this evening. Will also maintain patchy smoke tonight southwest into south central based on the latest HRRR smoke model. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 A cold front currently stretching from Sherwood south to Glen Ullin and into central South Dakota will continue moving east this afternoon, clearing the James River valley shortly after 06z Monday. Quite a density gradient as dewpoints are in the lower 60s ahead of the front, with mid and upper 40s coming in behind the front. Although there could be a brief, isolated shower, the high resolution models are scarce in terms of any significant reflectivity`s associated with the front through this evening. With plenty of dry air in the lower levels, will go along with that idea and keep the forecast dry. Behind the cold front, smoke/haze evident across the west per surface observations. Per NDFD Air Quality surface smoke forecast, have expanded the patchy smoke through 12z Monday. Lows tonight in the upper 40s far north to 50s elsewhere. Plenty of sunshine Monday and not as warm behind the front, with highs in the 80s. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Big swing in high temperatures still on track along with an unsettled weather period, Wednesday through Saturday. Precipitation totals during the Wednesday through Saturday period are forecast to range between 0.50 inches to 1.00 inches. Prior to the precipitation, expect a hot and dry day Tuesday, with highs in the mid 90s. Have utilized the GEF`s Plumes and went with the Mean Temperature. This looked like a target of opportunity as the forecast gridded data had mostly upper 80s. Thermal ridge overhead with H850 temps in the +24C to +26C should yield highs in the mid 90s. Near record high temperatures Tuesday for western and central ND. A cold front will be shifting from west to east during the day, with adequate mixing to well above 850mb. By Wednesday, a pattern change begins with a trough digging across the Pacific northwest, resulting in a southwesterly flow into North Dakota. Multiple weak shortwaves begin pushing into the area Wednesday, with the strongest shortwave trough and associated cold front sliding through Friday/Friday night. This is when the highest chances of precipitation occur. H850 temperatures cool to +2C to +6C Friday through Sunday. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s all three days. Chances for thunderstorms should mainly be confined to southern ND Wednesday through Friday based upon the GFS instability parameters. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 A cold front will continue to push south and east, reaching KJMS by 05-06z Monday. Otherwise VFR conditions though with some patchy smoke this evening southwest and south central. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...NH SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...KS AVIATION...NH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
622 PM MDT Sun Sep 10 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 334 PM MDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Scattered storms formed over all higher terrain around 11 am as expected, but have stayed pretty anchored over the mountains. Storms appear to be collapsing as they drift to the north- northeast under a south-southwest flow, thanks to a high pressure ridge to our east. Expect gusty outflow winds to 30 mph with brief moderate rain in stronger cells through this evening. Most activity is expected to wind down late this evening with some isolated showers continuing overnight as a stretching deformation zone works over the area as the high begins to shift back to the west. As far as haze and smoke is concerned, still some subtle haze in the area but much improved compared to the past week. The latest HRRR smoke model shows smoke staying confined to the wildfires in northwest Colorado near Hayden and Steamboat Springs areas and pretty localized at best. Did not appear widespread enough to mention in the forecast and expect more improvement through the coming week. Monday appears to be a transition day as southerly flow still remains over the region, keeping decent moisture with Precipitable Water (PW) values in the 0.75 to 1.0 inch range. This should maintain the threat for afternoon showers and storms over the higher terrain. The remnants of Hurricane Irma will be moving through the southeastern states, helping to push the ridge of high pressure further west with the closed low off the California coast retrograding to the west as well. This should result in a downturn in storm activity throughout the day on Monday. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 334 PM MDT Sun Sep 10 2017 The ridge of high pressure will be sitting directly overhead by Tuesday, with a closed low off the coast of California to our west, and the remnants of Irma spinning over the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys to our east. This Omega Blocking pattern will keep the weather drier with a downturn in storm activity Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon with enough moisture being recycled underneath the ridge to provide afternoon storms mainly over the higher terrain and warm, above normal temperatures. By Wednesday, a stronger low pressure system will be diving into the Pacific Northwest. This stronger flow will allow the closed low off the California coast to open up and track east through the Great Basin by Wednesday evening. This low will move across eastern Utah and western Colorado sometime during the day on Thursday. While there are some timing differences between models, the overall consensus appears to be increasing moisture in southwest flow ahead of this trough Wednesday evening with trough passage Thursday afternoon. This leads to increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms beginning Wednesday evening through the overnight and into Thursday afternoon/evening as additional convection fires in the afternoon. Increased PoPs during this period as well as winds as it will be a bit breezy as H7 winds increase to about 20 to 30 kts. A weak 60 kt jet streak will also punch into the Four Corners region at the base of this trough, providing additional support for convection and breezy conditions. Cooler and drier air will move in behind this trough with a weak 60 kt jet still overhead by Friday. PW follows suit with values dropping below 0.5 inches. A secondary shortwave looks to move through behind this main trough on the backside of the Pacific NW low with the GFS keeping it north and the EC clipping our northern CWA. Expect more breezy conditions Friday with little in the way of precipitation. Friday night temperatures in the northern valleys may be something to watch for as lows dip into the 30s. Uncertain if any areas will see near or below freezing temperatures, but that all depends on how far south it takes this secondary shortwave on Friday. The weekend overall looks dry and cool with below normal temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 617 PM MDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Showers and thunderstorms continue at this hour with KEGE, KTEX, and KASE being under the gun. This convection will continue for a few more hours before stratifying out. Some gusty winds have been noted near these storms reaching 30 to 35 MPH or so. SCT to BKN skies are expected overnight but will only bring mid to high level ceilings. Expect another round of convection tomorrow with more showers and storms expected. A few TAF sites may be affected but no mention in TAFs yet. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MDA LONG TERM...MDA AVIATION...TGR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
625 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show high pressure centered over the central Great Lakes. Southeast flow off Lake Michigan produced another cu field along the lakeshore, which turned broken for a short period late this morning. Weak shortwaves are moving over the northern Mississippi Valley where scattered light showers are occurring. Otherwise, with the surface high slowly moving to the eastern Great Lakes, clouds and temps are the main forecast concerns. Tonight...Surface high pressure will slide east tonight while the shortwave energy shears apart as it lifts into Lake Superior. The shortwave will run into a much drier airmass as the tail clips north- central WI late. The pwat/instability axis looks to remain well west of the region, so expecting only scattered mid-clouds to accompany the shortwave. Mostly clear conditions will be present over eastern WI. Warmer lows with a light south wind, with readings ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s. Monday...The shortwave will exit to the northeast during the morning, with only scattered mid clouds over northern WI. Then a weak cold front will move across northwest WI in the afternoon. Without any upper support and only weak convergence, no precip is expected. But the southerly winds will continue to bring in warmer temps. Highs ranging from the low to middle 70s. .LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 An upper level ridge from the southwestern states to the western Great Lakes will keep dry and mild weather in central and northern Wisconsin through much or all of this week. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Expect VFR flight conditions to prevail through the TAF period, with some mid-level clouds arriving from the west overnight, and scattered cumulus clouds during the day on Monday. The only concern is the potential for LLWS at the RHI TAF site late tonight/early Monday, as southwest winds increase to 30 kts just off the surface. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......RDM AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
909 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 909 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Updated to include 06Z aviation discussion below. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 336 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 An upper trough continues to track northeast across Minnesota, and isolated showers have continued to develop from southwest and south central Minnesota into the northeast. The trough has been weakening somewhat today, and though there is decent instability, the showers have had a tough time staying together in southern Minnesota. There is better lift farther north, and the showers in central Minnesota have been able to persist. So pops for this evening are highest in central and east central Minnesota into part of northwest Wisconsin. With the weakening trough departing southern Minnesota, it does not look like there will be much precip from there to west central Wisconsin, though the RAP and HRRR do develop some showers in southern MN late this afternoon and evening. But most of the CAMs do not develop any precip in this area. The surface front is lagging quite a bit, extending across western North Dakota into northern Wyoming at midday. Models are in decent agreement about it arriving in northwest Minnesota late tonight, and entering northwest Wisconsin Monday evening. It will be weakening as it moves toward the Upper Midwest. With upper ridging over our area on Monday, and south winds turning southwest in advance of the front, temperatures will be quite nice for mid September. Upper 70s to lower 80s are in the forecast for the entire area, and it is entirely possible that highs will be even warmer in western Minnesota ahead of the front. All in all, tomorrow will be a very nice day indeed. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 336 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Once tonight`s system moves off to the east, an upper ridge will build and dominate the Upper Midwest through most of the week. As the upper ridge controls the weather pattern, and 85h temperatures continue to moderate, temperatures will average well above normal this coming week. Currently models have the thermal ridge further to the northwest across the Dakotas, and northwest Minnesota which leads to higher temperatures in this area. Therefore, the highest temperatures will occur in MPX northwest forecast area, compared to the southeast. However, the highest temperatures are relative as all areas will be well above normal for mid September. By late Thursday/Friday, a large mean trough will move eastward across the Pacific Northwest, and into the inter-mountain region. Although all three models EC/GFS/GEM support the change in the weather pattern late this week, there are differences in the strength of the upper trough and speed. This will lead to differences in timing and location of the surface features once the trough moves across the plains. These differences will lead to changes in precipitation chances/intensity/coverage, as well as temperatures. For those planning this week, the best chance of dry and warm days will occur before Thursday. For those planning on more precipitation, the best chance will occur next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 909 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 There are not substantive changes in thinking or expectations from the 00Z issuance. We will see a frontal boundary work into the area overnight into Monday, but essentially fall apart as it does so with high pressure then building. Winds will veer through the period. KMSP...TAF reflects expectations with no concerns of note. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ .Tuesday...VFR. Variable wind less than 5 kt. .Tuesday night...VFR. South wind 5 kt or less. .Wednesday...VFR. South wind 5 kt or less. .Wednesday night...VFR. Southeast wind around 5 kt. .Thursday...VFR. Southeast wind increasing to 10 to 20 kt. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE... SHORT TERM...TDK LONG TERM...JLT AVIATION...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
252 PM MDT Sun Sep 10 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 252 PM MDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Under the upper level ridge that is over the state, a weak disturbance will be slowly drift over CO tonight and Monday. It will move from central CO tonight, to over east central CO on Monday. This disturbance could aid in keeping a few showers going into the late night hours over the central mtns and over the Pikes Peak region, as the NAM and GFS suggest, but the HRRR ends all pcpn over the forecast area by 07Z. Residual moisture and daytime heating on Mon will again lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms. The mtn areas will probably see a few areas of pcpn develop in the morning hours, with shower/tstm coverage increasing in the afternoon across all the mtns and spreading over the I-25 corridor. High temps are expected to be a few degrees cooler on Mon, but still a little above average acrs the southeast plains, and around average in the high valley locations. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 252 PM MDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Monday night through Wednesday...Upper level ridge forecast to remain over the CWA stay across the region, with generally weak flow aloft across Central Rockies. Mid and upper level moisture to remain in place, with mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms primarily across and near the mountains. Monday could be the best day for convection across the I-25 corridor and the eastern plains with weak upslope flow leading to increased low level moisture into eastern Colorado. Models are indicating CAPEs up to around 1000 j/kg across the plains Monday afternoon, however, with the weak flow aloft, shear profiles are not favorable for organized strong storms. Temperatures forecast to be at or slightly above seasonal through Wednesday. Thursday-Saturday...Upper ridge across the Rockies forced south by incoming trough. Southwest flow aloft projected across the region into early next weekend. The trough slowly lifts out across the Great Basin and Northern Rockies, and there seems to be enough moisture for daily showers and storms, mainly over and near the higher terrain. Drier air within the southwest flow moving into the region for later next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 252 PM MDT Sun Sep 10 2017 VFR conditions are expected at KCOS, KPUB and KALS thru the next 24 hrs. These forecast sites will all have the possibility of showers/tstms moving into the vicinity this evening, and again in the mid to late afternoon hours on Mon. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM...TM AVIATION...28
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 The closed mid/upper level low pressure is currently located over the northern plains and upper Midwest. The associated trough axis extends to the south-southwest with the southern most portion over southern NE. A storm complex from last night continues to persist over far north central KS. Some of the models are showing the supporting isentropic lift should weaken in the next few hours. The HRRR has also consistently depicted these showers and storms dissipating this afternoon, but it could reach as far south as I-70. The HRRR ensembles all show that by 22 to 23z there will be no more precipitation left. Clouds from this complex has spread across the area and there is thin smoke aloft. Later tonight clouds will clear out and winds will be light and variable. A surface ridge will extend from the Great Lakes down to southeast KS. Models are indicating calm winds will reach up to 850 mb. This should reduce the chances for mixing in the boundary layer. Therefore patchy ground fog will be possible around sunrise especially in the low lying areas across eastern KS. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Upper high over the Rockies into the Plains remains in place through Tuesday as the remnants of Irma move northwest into western Tennessee. Thereafter an upper level trough will move on shore Wednesday and weaken as a stronger large scale trough replaces it along the west coast Thursday. During this time period expect dry conditions to continue. Late Thursday night there is a small chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms as a weak wave moves northeast and within the low level jet and moisture axis. The pattern transitions to a southwest flow across the Central Plains ahead of the Pacific northwest trough late week. Over next weekend the upper trough is forecast to move east northeast into the Dakotas which will bring a cold front southeast into north central and northeast Kansas Saturday night and across the rest of east central Kansas on Sunday. Better forcing will be north of the forecast area, but there may be enough upper level support, forcing along the cold front as well as moisture and warm advection for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Expect highs in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the 60s for much of the extended, with cooler temperatures in the lower 80s next Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 638 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2017 VFR conditions will be the rule for this cycle. Ground fog development is possible with light winds and clear skies, with more favorable wind conditions at the eastern terminals, though some mixing of the boundary remains through the night. Given recent days, will go ahead with MIFG at TOP and monitor trends. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sanders LONG TERM...53 AVIATION...65
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
216 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 2017 .SYNOPSIS...Shower and thunderstorm activity through mid-week will be limited to mainly southeast California and the higher terrain of the southern Great Basin and northwest Arizona. Winds will begin to increase Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons as a low pressure system moves into the region. This will signal a possible change to a more fall-like weather pattern late this week with drier and occasionally breezy conditions. && .SHORT TERM...through Wednesday night. Much calmer day than what we have seen the past two days. Heading into this evening. Operational HRRR as well as the HRRRx have been consistent showing isolated showers/thunderstorms over eastern Mohave County into this evening before storms dissipate by 8 pm this evening. For Monday-Wednesday. Closed low presently well off the southern California will be feature of interest. The low is progged to start drifting back north off the the central California tonight-Monday, then remain nearly stationary off the central California Coast through Tuesday. Low finally starts to fill/open up and move inland Wednesday in response to deeper low digging into the Pacific Northwest. NAEFS PW standardized anomaly data shows a slight increase in PW values in western Inyo County Monday/Tuesday. Elsewhere, don`t see any new injection of moisture from the south so trough will being acting on moisture currently in place. Broad area of modest instability areawide along with ascent associated with the upper low will generate scattered showers/thunderstorms primarily focused in Inyo County Monday and Tuesday. With additional dynamics provide by the upper low do expect a few showers and thunderstorms to persist through Monday night and Tuesday night. Better dynamics start to shift east into southeast Nevada and northwest Arizona Wednesday. May see some showers/thunderstorm last through Wednesday night in northern Mohave County, otherwise drier air will start sweeping in from the west Wednesday night. South-southwest breezes will be a tad stronger each day while temperatures hover near seasonal normals. .LONG TERM...Thursday through Saturday. The Upper-Level low will continue to open up and eject out of the area on Thursday, leaving a breezy afternoon with below normal temps. A mean trough will remain in place over the region through the weekend with rather pleasant conditions for most as temps continue to run a few degrees below normal with afternoon breezes. A tropical system is forecast to develop south of the Baja Peninsula over the next few days. Current forecasts keep the system well south of the area, with sheared remnants and moisture remaining well to the east of the area under zonal to southwest flow. If current forecasts remain in place, Las Vegas may well have already seen the last 100 degree day of 2017. With a more fall-like, trough-ridden pattern, expect temperatures near or just below normal. The average last 100 degree day in Las Vegas is September 16. 100 degree highs have occured as at as October 4 (1947). && .AVIATION...For McCarran...East-northeast wind up to 10 kts into early evening, then decreasing as winds will return to a west or southwest direction overnight. Winds on Monday will start out easterly but we may see the direction want to sway more from the southeast in the late afternoon. Isolated showers/storms will be possible, mainly over the Spring Mountains and in the Beatty and Daggett corridors Monday. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California... North or an easterly winds at 5-15 kts in most areas this afternoon. A few showers/storms will be possible, mainly across NW Arizona. Similar conditions are expected Monday. CIGS with shower activity will mainly be in the 7-11 kft range. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Pierce LONG TERM.............Steele For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: or follow us on Facebook and Twitter