Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/15/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
957 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be moving east of New England tonight, as a weak
disturbance will approach from Pennsylvania and New Jersey with some
isolated to scattered showers. An upper level disturbance and a cold
front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow into
early tomorrow night. High pressure will build back in for the mid
week with fair and dry weather with seasonable temperatures for mid
August.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10pm update continues theme for earlier update...Latest runs of
the HRRR, RAP, and NAM all bring an area of SHRA activity
across the southern CWA during the overnight hours. Forcing is
subtle with this feature, but with all three models on board, I
maintain pops in the chance category for the southern 1/3 of the
region during the overnight hours. The latest RAP shows
Showalter indices dropping to 1C during the time of
precipitation. Still did not add thunder. Otherwise, only other
changes were to bring forecast in line with current
observations.
There is some weak elevated instability with Showalter
stability indices values in the 0 to -2C range drifting across
over the western Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks. We
placed a slight chance of thunderstorms in there. With the
increase of clouds and the low-level advection of moisture and
theta-e increasing we are expecting low temps to be in the upper
50s to mid 60s with the warmer readings over the mid-Hudson
Valley/Capital District/NW CT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tomorrow...Variable cloudiness and isolated to scattered
showers will open the day with the weak disturbance moving
through. Attention shifts to a short-wave trough approaching
from the central and eastern Great Lakes Region. The
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CAN GGEM all indicated some scattered showers and
potentially some thunderstorms impacting the forecast area with
some timing differences. Some weak height falls occur ahead of
the trough with sfc dewpoints increasing into the lower to mid
60s. SBCAPES on both the 12Z NAM and GFS are generally 500-1500
J/kg with 0-6 km bulk shear values of 35-50 kts. Some convection
organization is possible if enough heating occurs ahead of the
short-wave and it attendant cold front. The mid level lapse
rates are not particularly steep across most of the region,
except northeast of Albany where they may dip into the 6.5-7 deg
C/km range over portions of southern VT and the Lake George
Region. PWATS are 1-1.50". Some localized bursts of rain are
possible. We did place some gusty winds in the grids for the
eastern Adirondacks, Lake George Region and southern VT. These
stronger storms will be conditional to the timing of the
disturbance, and if enough instability is realized. The SPC
Marginal Risk looks fine northeast of Albany in these areas.
They are also a little bit closer to better upper jet dynamics,
although northern New England looks even better outside of our
area. The latest 3-km NAM shows limited isolated convection
tomorrow. This will continue to be monitored. High temps should
be similar to today with upper 70s to lower 80s in the lower
elevations, and upper 60s to mid 70s over the higher terrain.
Tue night...Any isolated to scattered showers ahead of the
short-wave and sfc trough should quickly weaken in the early
evening. A weak cold front moves across the region with weak
cold advection. We placed some isolated to scattered showers
with the cold front mainly west of the Hudson Valley into the
early morning hours. Some patchy fog may occur from the Hudson
River Valley eastward, especially where any showers or
thunderstorms occur. Lows will generally range from the mid 50s
to lower 60s.
Wed to Wed night...Broad cyclonic flow at the sfc and aloft
will impact the region with a cool and dry air mass for the mid
week. A sfc anticyclone will build in from southeast Ontario.
Sunshine will mix with a few cumulus clouds, but overall
expecting partly to mostly sunny conditions due to strong
subsidence with the sfc high building in. H850 temps will be in
the +9 to 14C range from northwest to southeast across the
region. Expect highs to be in the mid 60s to mid 70s over the
mountains, and upper 70s to lower 80s in the valleys and over
the hills. Humidity levels will be very comfortable with sfc
dewpts in the 40s and 50s. Fair and tranquil conditions continue
Wed night with the sfc high in control. Lows will be in the 50s
except for some 40s over the srn Dacks, southern VT, northern
Berks, and eastern Catskills. Some high clouds may move in from
the south and west towards daybreak.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure starts off the long term period on Thursday with
seasonable temperatures for mid - August around 80 and comfortable
dew points thanks to NW flow. While we should start off with some
sun, we`ll likely see increasing clouds through the day as our high
shifts into eastern New England leading to return flow. A warm front
associated with a low in the Great Lakes starts advancing towards
our area as well Thursday night into Friday with warm air advection
increasing ahead of the frontal boundary. BUFKIT soundings suggest
that sufficient dry air could be in place so that initial warm air
advection could be spent just saturating the column and thus leaving
most of our CWA dry at least for the first half of Thursday night.
However, most of the global models are in agreement that decent
isotherm packing sets up to our SW with H850 and H925 winds shifting
SW which could lead to showers later in the night. Thus introduced
chance POPs overnight with the highest probabilities in the SW CWA.
The slow moving warm front should be our weather on Friday
leading to a muggy day (dew points in the 60s) under mostly cloudy
skies. We increased the threat for showers in eastern NY to
chance/likely POPS as the warm front should reach into the Capital
District during the day. In addition, the increased humidity could
lead to CAPE values rising to 500 - 1000J/kg so have also introduced
thunder chances. Just how far northeast the front travels is still
uncertain as the models hint at our high pressure wedge remaining
stubbornly in place over our western New England counties.
Eventually, guidance shows the warm front pushing through our entire
region sometime Saturday so continued chance POPs overnight Friday.
We know from experience that the models this far in advance struggle
with the timing of warm fronts so this is still a rather low
confidence forecast.
While we should be in the warm sector on Saturday with H850
isotherms at +14-16, only increased highs a bit compared to Friday
as we should be partly to mostly cloudy. If more breaks of sun occur
will have to increase temperatures. Humidity levels remain high
again so kept the thunder threat in place, especially SW counties. A
shortwave trough from the Great Lakes will move into Northeast with
the models showing it shifting from positively tiled to neutrally
tiled as it heads our way so continued chance POPS for all of
Saturday due to PVA. The system`s cold front should then move
through our area sometimes late Saturday/Saturday night.
High pressure follows for Sunday/Monday bringing more comfortable
humidity levels and seasonable temperatures around or just over 80.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail at all terminals through at least 06Z.
From previous discussion...lower clouds may develop and/or
spread northward later this evening, with MVFR Cigs developing
between 08Z-11Z/Tue, along with the possibility of embedded IFR,
especially at KPSF. MVFR/IFR Cigs should gradually trend back
to VFR between 14Z- 16Z/Tue.
Latest runs of the HRRR, RAP, and NAM all bring an area of SHRA
activity across the southern CWA during the overnight hours.
Forcing is subtle with this feature. So have covered with VCSH.
RAP shows Showalter indices getting close to 0, but given low
confidence any SHRA activity will develop, much less thunder,
have omitted thunder. Isolated/scattered rain showers may
approach from the west after 08Z/Tue, especially at KGFL/KALB.
These showers may linger until around 12Z-14Z/Tue.
Additional showers and possible thunderstorms, isolated to
scattered in areal coverage, are expected to develop mainly
after 18Z/Tue. Again, with confidence low, have opted for VCSH
for all terminals.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...FG.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will be moving east of New England tonight, as a
weak disturbance will approach from Pennsylvania and New Jersey
with some isolated to scattered showers. An upper level
disturbance and a cold front will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms tomorrow into early tomorrow night. High pressure
returns with dry weather for the mid week.
The RH values increase to 85 to 100 percent Tuesday, and
Wednesday mornings, and lower to 50 to 60 percent tomorrow
afternoon.
The winds will be light from the south to southwest at less than
10 mph tonight, and 5 to 10 mph tomorrow. The winds will shift
to the west to northwest at 5 to 10 mph Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected the next several days.
There will be a chance for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms between tonight and tomorrow, but not all areas
will see rainfall. The rainfall amounts will vary, with some
areas only seeing a few hundredths of an inch and other spots
receiving heavier amounts. At this point, no flooding of rivers
and streams is anticipated, but any thunderstorms will be
capable of producing locally heavy downpours.
After dry weather Wednesday into Thursday, some additional
showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into the
weekend. Rainfall amounts are still variable from the guidance,
though the northern half of the hydro service area could receive
and inch or more of rainfall Thu night through Fri.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KENX radar will be down into Wednesday due to an azimuthal
gearbox and motor problems. A Radar Operations Center
technician will potentially arrive to assist the ALY tech staff
repairing and further diagnosing the radar on WED.
In addition, KGFL ASOS continues to experience intermittent
outages.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...OKeefe/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...KL/OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...Wasula
HYDROLOGY...Frugis/Wasula
EQUIPMENT...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
626 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
.AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs:
We will begin the period in VFR, but KAMA and KDHT (possibly KGUY)
will have thunderstorm chances later this evening which could
being about MVFR conditions for mainly ceilings. Visibilities
could also be reduced with the heavier precipitation
thunderstorms. Recent trends have shown slightly less chance for
thunderstorms, but felt KAMA and KDHT warranted a TEMPO group to
account for these chances. Models were suggesting some fog/mist
around during the overnight/morning hours as well, but these
chances appear less likely at this time. This could be an addition
to the next set of TAFs if conditions look favorable again.
Unfortunately, KDHT has lost its visibility sensor due to recent
thunderstorm damage from debris, so this TAF site will be without
amendments until it becomes fixed.
Guerrero
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 416 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017/
DISCUSSION...
Trend for the forecast continues with numerous periods of
thunderstorm chances, especially the overnight periods. We seem to
be in a perpetual pattern of increased night time precipitation
chances. Otherwise, temperatures look to be right around normal for
this time of year.
Satellite imagery shows a cumulus field located across central parts
of the Texas Panhandle basically aligned just ahead of a surface
trough axis. West of this axis across eastern parts of New Mexico
thunderstorms have already developed. Convective allowing models all
have these storms pushing east into our forecast area late this
afternoon/early evening. Ample instability will be around the
Panhandles this afternoon and evening, but the wind pattern through
the atmosphere doesn`t have much turning/shear with only 20-30 knots
at most for 0-6km shear. Lower level wind speeds are especially
weak. Storms will be very slow movers. Chances are some of these
storms could be strong, but widespread severe weather does not look
likely. Downdraft CAPE from the RAP shows values around 1000-1300
which could lead to some strong wind gusts. Overall, strong wind
gusts appear to be the main threat as models indicate a linear
segment developing and pushing through the Panhandles. Cells are
discrete at the moment across New Mexico. In the upper levels there
is a jet streak over the area with the left exit region over western
parts of the forecast area leading to divergence aloft which should
aid in thunderstorm development/support so rain chances look decent
across portions of the forecast area, especially the Texas
Panhandle. Trend continues to show chances continuing into the
night, with thunderstorms pushing east of the forecast area by
sunrise if dissipation doesn`t occur before then.
For Tuesday, thunderstorm chances continue as well, but again
widespread severe weather does not look likely. Ample CAPE will be
around again but shear parameters are weak. Strong storms will again
be possible tomorrow, and chances are wind will be the main threat
for Tuesday. Through the next couple of days there will be a chance
for moderate to heavy rainfall, especially localized within the
stronger thunderstorms given the higher precipitable water values
forecast. This is of course in addition to the slow storm movement
anticipated the next couple days.
Multiple thunderstorm chances are in the forecast through the
extended. At this time, it does not look like severe weather is too
likely Wednesday, and beyond this its too early to determine the
potential for severe weather.
Guerrero
&&
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1031 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1032 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
You know what they say about "the best laid plans". Such is the
case with stratus sometimes, and the forecast has done a 180
regarding how much stratus is expected to develop, given a rapid
loss of upstream stratus earlier this evening. As of a few hours
ago, have steered the forecast heavily toward the idea of more
dense fog development than stratus overnight, given the combo of
clearing skies, light winds, and already very low temp-dew point
depressions. In fact, already seeing the usual suspect sites dip
below 1 mile for visibility, and per trends and the setup, believe
we are headed toward a Dense Fog Advisory type of event later
tonight.
The one thing to watch remains a smaller patch of lower stratus
developing southward out of the I-94 corridor of central
Wisconsin. Based on RAP soundings and trajectories, looking like
that axis of low clouds may expand for areas east of the
Mississippi River, leaving plenty of real estate farther west to
fog in. However, just where said clouds end up will make a huge
difference regarding fog potential. Simply put, where stratus
exists, fog won`t, and vice versa. Should be a good night to "test
out" GOES-16 fog imagery.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
Local and regional radars still showing a few showers over
portions of central Wisconsin in the cyclonic flow of the
departing short wave trough over the Upper Great Lakes. These
showers could possibly hold onto into the early evening over the
far eastern portions of the area, otherwise the rest of tonight
and into Tuesday look to be dry as high pressure over Minnesota
and western Ontario briefly builds in over the area and as upper
level ridging moves across the region.
The ridging aloft and at the surface will get pushed east of the
area starting Tuesday night. Water vapor satellite imagery
currently shows the next system was over Oregon and northern
California and will quickly move east toward the region. There
looks to be several short wave troughs embedded in the mean trough
with this system. The first of these short wave troughs will move
across the region Wednesday with another for Wednesday night. As
these waves move across the area they look to produce periods of
weak to moderate pv advection in the 500-300 mb layer. The low
level moisture transport looks respectable with these waves, but
never looks to be overly strong. The leading and convergent edge
of this moisture transport looks to start spreading in very late
Tuesday night or early into Wednesday morning and then starts to
diminish Wednesday evening as the first short wave troughs moves
past the region. The warm air advection ahead of the short wave
troughs looks to produce a period of 1 to 3 ubar/s (at times a
little higher) of up glide on the 305K isentropic surface.
The surface front currently across northern Iowa and southern
Wisconsin will continued to get pushed south as the surface high
builds in tonight. This front will start to return back to the
area Wednesday and how far north is gets will determine how much
instability and the coverage of storms that will occur. It
currently appears that the general consensus from the 14.12Z
models is that the front may get back into the southern portions
of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon. Recent runs of the GFS
brought in the most amount of CAPE, but the 14.12Z run now only
shows 500-1000 J/Kg of ML CAPE south of about Interstate 90. The
deep shear still looks to be lacking with maybe around 30 knots of
shear in the 0-3 km layer. This could be enough for a strong storm
or two but would not anticipate much severe weather. A larger
concern is with the possiblity of some heavy rain. The models
remain consistent in showing the warm cloud depths in the 3.5 to 4
km range with precipitable waters approaching 2 inches. This
should allow for some locally heavy rain but with the recent dry
stretch, the area should be able to take some rain and not
concerned about any flooding issues at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
The last of the short wave trough with this system will move
across the area Thursday. By this time, the best low level support
will be well past the area, being tied to the lead short wave
troughs, so only expecting some lingering showers and storms to be
around. Northwest flow aloft looks to set up behind this system
which should allow another short wave trough to move across the
Upper Midwest for late in the week into the start of the weekend.
Differences between the GFS and 14.12Z ECMWF on how strong this
wave may be and how much rainfall that could occur. Either way,
enough to include a small rain chance for Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
Scattered showers continue along a cold front slowly drifting east
through the region, but just about to clear LSE by 00Z. Behind
that front, confidence is very low regarding redevelopment of low
clouds, as earlier expectations for widespread stratus have
dwindled somewhat as clouds upstream have really mixed out. Gut
feeling based on the setup is we may be dealing more with a fog
setup for RST as skies clear out quite a bit overnight, with a
period of VLIFR in dense fog now expected, centered either side
of sunrise.
LSE is much more tricky, as current low clouds over central
Wisconsin could be shoved back southwest as the low level flow
turns northeasterly overnight. Should that occur, a period of MVFR
or even briefly IFR ceilings is likely. However, should clouds
fail to materialize, as suggested by recent runs of the RAP model,
a fog threat could develop in LSE. For now, have split the
difference with some light fog and lower stratus centered either
side of sunrise, but will really need to watch trends through the
night.
Fog and/or stratus should gradually lift through the morning
hours, with scattered to perhaps broken ceilings into the
afternoon with cumulus redevelopment as some thicker cirrus also
arrives. Winds will remain under 10 knots through the period,
shifting from the north to the east with time.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Lawrence
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...Lawrence
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1012 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves offshore overnight, allowing some scattered
showers to move into the region late, especially along the south
coast. The risk for showers lingers tomorrow, with an isolated
thunderstorm possible before improvement arrives again tomorrow
night. Dry conditions follow Wednesday and Thursday. A warm
front approaches Friday, bringing increasing clouds, and
scattered showers. Showers and Thunderstorms are possible
Saturday as a cold front enters the region. A drying trend
likely follows Sunday and Monday along with near seasonable
temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM Update...
Overall trend in the forecast remains on track for this evening.
Did go ahead and increase precipitation chances across southern
New England after 2 AM. Appears higher moisture and in the
upper level jet dynamics will result in more widespread precip
chances across the interior. Several runs of the HRRR have
indicated this and it is shown in the 18z GFS as well as the 00z
NAM.
Otherwise dense fog remains on track for tonight across the CAPE
and the Islands. Will have to continue to watch its northward
progression to see if dense fog adv will need to be expanded.
================================================================
High pres remains in control this evening even as the column
moisture loads along a strengthening WSW-ENE upper lvl jet in
the form of CI. Filtered sunshine has still allowed temps to
reach near their seasonal normal values except where sea breezes
kicked in late this morning.
Weak S flow already developing and as such noticed an area of
marine fog/stratus already infiltrating Nantucket and sliding
NNE. Will watch this for mainly the remaining Islands and Cape
Cod for late this evening/overnight. Dense fog advisories may be
needed for these areas. Further inland, while some low clouds
are possible, less inclined to go with fog given the modest S
flow and slow rise of overnight dwpts in comparison to direct
marine influenced airmass over the Cape/Islands.
Otherwise, will continue to watch band of light-mod rainfall
attendant to the developing S shortwave/increasing jet sliding
along the stalled front. Heights do dip late tonight and
suggested modest overrunning N of the front attempts a lift N
itself late. PWAT plume reaches 1.50-2.00 inches mainly along
and S of the Mass Pike, but deeper moisture/instability
associated with Gert will remain well S of the front, closer to
the mid Atlantic states. Therefore, will cap POP increase to
chance overnight, but could see some SCT light SHRA develop
especially W MA/CT (closer to the right entrance region of the
upper lvl jet) and along the immediate S coast (closer to the
stalled frontal boundary. In any case only light totals of a
quarter inch or less are expected at this time.
Overnight mins will be milder than previous nights, mainly in
the 60s even in coolest spots thanks to an increase in moisture
and cloud cover preventing radiational cooling.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tomorrow...
As upper lvl jet-streak becomes more refined it shifts its
equatorward entrance region mainly SSE of New England later in
the day even as secondary shortwave energy moves out of the
Great Lakes and into central and N New England. This should
allow initial round of SHRA to dissipate through the morning and
shift offshore, focused more intently on the strengthening Gert
and the front offshore which looks to capture it. Will maintain
slight chance POPs mainly along the immediate S coast with
particular focus on the Islands, closer to where the best
synoptic support will focus later in the day. PWATs remain in
the 1.50-2.00 inch range, supporting this area.
Otherwise, with the secondary shortwave moving in from the W
initially rising heights will give way to slight cooling aloft,
enhancing mid lvl lapse rates from around 5.0C/km to start,
closer to 6.0C/km by late afternoon mainly across NW MA. With
modest moisture plume (still focused only on the S coast), this
could lead to a period where CAPE values reach 700-1200j/kg but
with a very tight gradient toward the E due to influence of mid
lvl dry air and capping. This should limit focus for late day
convection to mainly the most extreme W/NW zones, and most
likely in N and central New England where diurnal heating will
be better maximized. Shear will be the once enhancing component,
as 0-6km shear values during the afternoon reach 45kt. Not
expecting much in the way of severe due to these limiting
factors, particularly the fact we remain split between two areas
of synoptic lift to the NW and S. This agrees with latest SWODY2
which keeps marginal risk focused mainly across N New England.
Highs a bit cooler than normal given a fair amount of early
cloudiness.
Tomorrow night...
Weakening shortwave/front and upper lvl jet axis shift further
offshore and become entangled in the future ET process of Gert.
This will allow W flow and drier air to entrain through the
remainder of the column even where mid lvl drying has not
already occurred. Although a mild/moist start, trend will be
toward clearing and gradual fog dissipation toward the early
morning hours. Although dwpts will begin dropping, they are
likely to remain in the 60s through sunrise, and with early
cloud cover and continually W flow, lows should not dip below
the low-mid 60s even in coldest spots.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights...
* Pleasant summer weather Wednesday and Thursday
* Risk for showers/Thunderstorms Friday and Saturday
* Improving trend Sunday into Monday
Synoptic overview...
Persistent and anomalous northeast Pacific jet continues to eject
numerous short wave troughs across the Canadian/US border resulting
in the risk of showers/T-storms at times. In between systems, many
hours of dry weather. As for temps, active northern stream jet
suppresses subtropical ridge and its associated excessive heat and
humidity across the southern states, resulting in temps here near
normal for mid Aug.
Temperatures...
As mentioned above, active northern stream jet suppresses
subtropical ridge and its excessive heat and humidity south of New
England. Overall this pattern supports temps near normal thru the
period. The warmest day in this stretch is likely Wednesday in the
post frontal airmass with WNW winds providing some additional
downslope adiabatic warming and keeping seabreeze offshore. Thus
most beaches will warm into the low 80s Wed with mid to upper 80s in
the coastal plain /including Boston-Providence corridor/ and the CT
river valley. The core of this dry airmass settles over the area Wed
ngt into early Thu, which will result in cooler but very pleasant
temps Wed ngt into Thu morning with lows in the 50s, possibly upper
40s across northwest MA. Given this airmass and potential
radiational cooling sided with the cooler MOS mins Wed ngt/Thu
morning.
Seabreeze and cooler airmass Thu will keep highs in the upper 70s
and low 80s. In fact dew pts could be in the 40s! Quite comfortable.
Cloud cover and convective chances Fri and Sat will also limit highs
to the upper 70s and low 80s. A drying trend along with post frontal
WNW flow Sun and Mon may result in slightly warmer temps.
Precipitation...
Post frontal airmass overspreads the region Wed and lingers into
Thu. Thus dry weather both days. Then next short wave approaches Fri
with increasing clouds and warm frontal rain/showers likely. Trough
is slow to exit so risk of convection Sat ahead of the approaching
cold front. PWATs climb to +1 to +2 standard deviations above climo
so some heavy downpours are possible. Ensembles and deterministic
guidance both suggest trough begins to exit around Sunday so a
drying trend is possible Sun/Mon.
Beach Forecast...
Swells from tropical storm Gert are expected to arrive into our
coastal waters Tue ngt and then peak Wed with southerly swells up to
7 ft possible. Therefore surf will become quite rough Wed along with
increasing rips. Beachgoers will definitely need to exercise caution
especially at south facing ocean beaches where surf and rips will be
strongest.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
1030 PM update...
Dense fog continues across the Cape and the Islands. Will have
to watch to see if LIFR conditions impact SE MA and portions of
RI.
==================================================================
Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...
Tonight and tomorrow...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR except extreme SE MA/RI terminals which could
experience a period of IFR conditions in low CIGS with low vsby
fog possible especially Cape/Islands. This burns off after
sunrise. Some showers possible late tonight, mainly Islands.
Otherwise, a few showers and isolated T-storms mainly W MA
during the afternoon tomorrow.
Tomorrow night...Moderate confidence.
VFR gives way to another mix of IFR/MVFR mainly CT/RI and SE MA
while the remainder stays mostly VFR, then as winds shift around
to the W, transition back to VFR everywhere toward the morning.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Low probability for
a few hours of MVFR conditions around 09z.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wed and Thu...VFR likely along with dry weather. Light WNW winds Wed
becoming onshore Thu. High forecast confidence.
Fri and Sat...marginal VFR-MVFR in scattered showers/T-storms both
days. Low risk for IFR conditions Fri night into early Sat. Forecast
confidence high on trends but lower on specific details.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...High confidence.
Through tomorrow...
S winds develop with gusts to around 20-25 kt on the E waters
during the day tomorrow, but brief. Otherwise, they remain below
small craft thresholds through the day tomorrow. Seas will
increase late tomorrow, but should remain below 5 ft through
tomorrow evening. Otherwise, mix of fog and showers,
particularly on the S ocean waters and waters surrounding Cape
Cod during the overnight and early morning.
Tomorrow night...
Continued risk for showers early, but then dissipating late. The
main issue will be a gradually increasing southerly swell which
could reach as high as 7 ft on the southern open ocean waters by
daybreak on Wed. Therefore, will likely a round of small craft
advisories for mainly the southern waters.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wed and Thu...fine boating weather both days, good vsby and dry
weather. Only issue will be across the ocean waters especially south
shore where large southerly swells up to 7 ft Wed, then eroding Thu.
Forecast confidence is moderate to high.
Fri and Sat...scattered showers/T-storms expected along with light
to modest southerly winds. Vsby may lower in precip and esp Fri
night in areas of fog. Mainly southerly wind waves with swells from
Gert likely well offshore.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for MAZ022>024.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Doody
NEAR TERM...Doody/Dunten
SHORT TERM...Doody
LONG TERM...Nocera
AVIATION...Nocera/Doody/Dunten
MARINE...Nocera/Doody
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
700 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
...Updated Aviation Section...
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
Plentiful sunshine and boundary layer moisture (dewpoints in the
60s) will keep instability in place through this evening. 12z NAM
forecasts CAPE of 2000 J/kg widespread by peak heating, locally
higher. The problem is the triggering mechanisms necessary for
convection are nebulous, weak and hard to identify. HRRR has shown
some consistency developing thunderstorms along an outflow
boundary along the I-70 corridor by peak heating. In the absence
of strong forcing, orographic forcing and the higher terrain will
become the primary focusing mechanism through this evening.
Confident that convection will fire in the vicinity of the Raton
Mesa soon, with subsequent propagation SE toward the TX/OK
Panhandles. SPC`s marginal 5% wind/hail probabilities for this
scenario just SW of SW KS look reasonable. 12z NAM also shows this
solution, which would keep impacts limited to nil in SW KS. With
moderate high CAPE and little shear/forcing, can`t rule out a
thunderstorm at any location, but the odds are very low. Kept pop
grids limited and conservative in the 20-30% range. Lows tonight
in the 60s (probably holding near 70 SE of Dodge City).
Tuesday...Stronger S/SE surface winds (averaging 15-25 mph) will
maintain boundary layer dewpoints in the 60s. Southerly 850 mb
flow increases progressively through the afternoon, near 25 kts,
increasing further to near 40 kts with a modest low level jet
Tuesday evening. NAM responds to this by forecasting stronger
instability late Tuesday, with CAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg. During
daylight Tuesday, forcing is still progged to be weak and less
than obvious, so kept slight chances for most locales. Convection
appears much more likely Tuesday night into early Wednesday, as
as a midlevel trough approaches from the central Rockies, and a
frontal boundary sinks south into SW KS. NAM/GFS MOS pops show a
unanimous increase Tuesday evening, with ECMWF solutions strongly
hinting at MCS generation over at least central Kansas through
Tuesday night. Given the largely nocturnal timing of Tuesday and
Wednesday`s expected convection, primary expectation is one of
strong to severe multicell convective clusters producing
marginally severe hail/wind. Highest risk will be near and NW of
our NW zones, as SPC slight risk delineates. Temperatures Tuesday
afternoon very near mid-August normals, within a few degrees of
90.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
Long term likely to start out active, as ECMWF shows strong
forcing (for mid-August standards) arriving with a Colorado
shortwave Tuesday night. MCS generation over central Kansas is
anticipated, and storms are most likely across the NE zones near
the I-70 corridor. Pop grids offered by the forecast blend are in
the 50% range, and will need to be increased into the likely
category over the next couple shifts. Areas of heavy rain and
severe weather are expected. The cold front associated with the
shortwave will usher in a northerly wind for Wednesday,
effectively scouring the instability and pushing most of the CAPE
into Oklahoma. Pops are very low Wednesday afternoon/evening, and
confined to the eastern/SE zones. A few degrees of cooling
expected Wednesday, in the mid to upper 80s, versus the lower 90s
on Tuesday.
Much of Thursday appears dry, but another round of thunderstorms
is expected Thursday evening/night. 12z ECMWF suggests heavy rain
from this probable MCS would favor the southern zones. 12z GFS in
good agreement, with another shortwave in the NW flow aloft
triggering a strong MCS along the Oklahoma border Thursday
evening. Scattered thunderstorms still expected mainly across
eastern sections late Friday.
12z MEX guidance suggests a notable warming trend this weekend,
with afternoon temperatures into the mid 90s. With such wet
ground across much of KS, and more MCSs probable between now and
then, forecast grids only show a very gradual warmup this weekend
(climbing to near/slightly above normal) by Sunday and Monday.
It is still summer.....
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
Latest TAF will reflect convection-free forecast with probability
of thunder impacting terminals too low to include. Prevailing wind
will remain out of the south with no significant wind shift
forecast. Nocturnal wind speeds will be 6 to 9 knots with late
morning to afternoon wind speeds 12 to 15 knots sustained. There
will be a better opportunity for thunderstorms at the very end of
this forecast period late tomorrow afternoon/evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 92 69 88 / 10 30 50 30
GCK 67 91 65 86 / 20 30 40 10
EHA 65 91 64 85 / 20 30 50 10
LBL 68 94 68 87 / 20 30 50 10
HYS 68 89 68 86 / 10 20 50 40
P28 70 93 71 91 / 10 30 40 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
647 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
.AVIATION.../00Z TAF CYCLE/
VFR conditions prevail across the region as of 2345Z and are expected
to continue through at least 09Z overnight. However, greater low-
level moisture is indicated to infiltrate north per NAM soundings and
HRRR cross-sections by early Tuesday morning. Given the patchy nature
of MVFR decks this morning and the suggested greater moisture content
modeled for Tuesday morning, have placed MVFR decks for all sites.
MVFR should appear in the 09-10Z range for KSAT/KSSF/KAUS and remain
intact through 15-16Z. Even KDRT may see some patchy/brief MVFR
ceilings for a few hours from 12-14/15Z. VFR conditions are expected
thereafter for all sites through Tuesday afternoon. Surface winds
will remain south to southeast at 5-10 knots overnight and then
increase to near 10-14 knots with gusts to near 20 knots in the
afternoon Tuesday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
The latest water vapor satellite loop shows a plume of moisture
stretched from northern Mexico across southwest Texas and into far
northeast Texas. This plume of moisture is captured well by looking
at model-derived 700-500 Theta-e values. The models agree in keeping
this Theta-e ridge axis confined to the southern Edwards plateau and
adjacent portions of the Rio Grande plains through the short term
portion of the forecast. This should result in mainly isolated
showers and thunderstorms for areas mainly north of a Del Rio to
Rocksprings line. Coverage of showers and storms should be fairly
low, so we will keep rain chances in the 20-30% range in the latest
forecast. Otherwise, dry and hot conditions will continue across
south central Texas. Daytime highs will range from the mid 90s to
near 100, with overnight lows in the 70s. We may be close to Heat
Advisory levels on Tuesday for areas along and east of I-35 as
southeast winds will not allow much lowering of afternoon dewpoints.
LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
The heat will continue through the long term portion of the forecast.
On Wednesday, we may very well be near Heat Advisory levels along and
east of I-35 as afternoon dew points will likely not decrease much
given continued southeast flow in the low-levels. Hi-res models
continue to suggest the sea breeze could become active and we will
mention a low chance for showers and thunderstorms for the coastal
plains and Highway 77 corridor. In addition, we will continue a low
chance for showers and storms across Val Verde county, where a mid-
level moist axis will persist. For the remainder of the forecast
period, the mid-level subtropical ridge axis will remain the dominant
weather feature across south central Texas. Temperatures will
continue to remain above normal across all areas. Highs will remain
in the mid 90s to near 100 with lows generally in the 70s. With
daytime heating and low-level mixing, we should see enough lowering
of dewpoints in the afternoon to keep Heat Index values largely below
Advisory levels. However, we continue to stress heat safety during
this period of above normal temperatures. Opportunities for rainfall
appear very limited and we will keep the forecast dry for Friday
through Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 77 99 78 99 78 / 0 0 - - 10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 99 77 98 77 / 0 - - - -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 100 76 99 76 / 0 - - - -
Burnet Muni Airport 74 96 74 96 74 / - 0 - - 10
Del Rio Intl Airport 79 101 80 101 80 / - - 10 20 -
Georgetown Muni Airport 76 98 77 97 76 / - 0 - - 10
Hondo Muni Airport 75 101 76 101 75 / 0 0 - 10 -
San Marcos Muni Airport 75 100 77 99 76 / 0 - - - -
La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 99 78 98 78 / - 10 - 20 -
San Antonio Intl Airport 76 100 77 99 77 / 0 0 - - -
Stinson Muni Airport 76 99 77 99 77 / 0 0 - 10 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Mesoscale/Aviation...Allen
Synoptic/Grids...17
Public Service/Data Collection...Treadway
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
958 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
.UPDATE...
The isolated thunderstorms that develop during the afternoon
dissipated after sunset. The thunderstorms over the Texas
Panhandle don`t look as good as the complex did last night. In
addition, the low level jet which helped keep the complex
going overnight into this morning is much weaker than it was 24
hours ago. Thus feel more confident that those Panhandle storms
will not make it across the forecast area tonight. The HRRR does
indicate that some isolated warm advection showers may develop
toward/shortly after daybreak west of I-35. At this time will
just leave 10 percent PoPs with no mention of rain.
58
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 642 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017/
VFR conditions will prevail at the Metroplex TAF sites through
06z Wednesday. There may be a few hours of MVFR ceilings at Waco
as indicated by the TEMPO BKN015 between 11 and 15z. South winds
at 6 to 9 knots tonight will increase to 12 to 15 knots Tuesday
morning.
58
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 343 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017/
/Tonight through Tuesday Night/
Afternoon satellite imagery shows some clearing in the wake of
earlier morning convection across a good portion of North Texas
with the exception of a narrow band of thicker mid level cloud
cover right across the central part of the CWA. This is associated
with a narrow ribbon of much higher 800-700mb RH that is streaming
across the area from the west. At the surface, temperatures have
warmed into the mid 90s where the sun has come out and remain in
the mid to upper 80s under thicker cloud cover. There still
remains an area of localized stronger surface convergence from
near Abilene eastward to Mineral Wells. Over the last couple of
hours, there has been an uptick in convective activity, likely
aided by some weak forcing aloft in the westerly flow. Much of
this activity is expected to remain across the far western
counties and we`ll keep some 20% PoPs out there through the late
evening. Otherwise, skies should be partly cloudy overnight will
generally low rain chances.
On Tuesday, we will have a little more influence from shortwave
ridging as a trough deepens over the western U.S. This will result
in strengthening southerly flow and likely will limit rain chances
to 10% or less across the region. Tomorrow night, as the upper
forcing spreads into west Texas, a complex of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to develop over the Panhandle southward.
This complex will likely move northeast with time and may impact
some of our areas west of I-35, particularly our northwest
counties. The upper flow won`t be quite as favorable for the
complex of storms to move across the entire area.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 343 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017/
/Wednesday through Monday/
A somewhat unsettled flow will continue for our area mid week as
a broad trough sits over the western CONUS and a series of
impulses move overhead in southwest flow. Will likely see some
lingering rain/storms to start off the day Wednesday and
additional storm chances Wednesday night into Thursday morning,
with higher chances over our northern counties. Temperatures on
Wednesday and Thursday will be near seasonal norms for highs and
slightly warmer for lows due to the expected overnight cloud
cover.
By Thursday, the upper ridge that has been parked over the
Southeast U.S. should begin shifting westward...far enough to
notice a drop in rain chances and an increase in temperatures
across North and Central Texas for the end of the work week into
the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 78 98 79 96 80 / 10 5 10 10 20
Waco 78 99 79 98 79 / 5 5 5 10 5
Paris 74 91 75 91 76 / 20 10 10 10 30
Denton 77 97 78 95 78 / 20 5 10 20 20
McKinney 77 96 78 94 78 / 20 5 10 10 20
Dallas 79 98 80 96 80 / 10 5 10 10 20
Terrell 77 96 78 95 78 / 10 5 5 10 10
Corsicana 77 98 78 96 78 / 5 5 5 10 10
Temple 76 98 78 98 77 / 5 5 5 10 5
Mineral Wells 76 97 76 96 76 / 10 5 20 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
58/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
819 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show shortwave
troughing moving across the western Great Lakes early this
afternoon. Showers have been most widespread over northern WI so
far today, though the mesoanalysis indicates 200-400 j/kg of surface
based instability developing over central to eastern WI. Therefore,
cannot rule out scattered showers and isolated storms developing in
these areas later this afternoon. Latest HRRR also indicates this
remains a possibility. Looking upstream, broken clouds remain over
western WI and Minnesota, and it looks rather difficult to see these
clouds mixing out through the afternoon. Forecast concerns revolve
around precip trends through the evening, then cloud trends.
Tonight...The shortwave trough will continue to move east across the
region this evening before departing overnight. Area of deepest
moisture suggests that northern WI will continue to see the greatest
coverage of showers, but higher res models also show isolated to
scattered activity lingering elsewhere through late in the evening
or early overnight. In general though, the chance of precip will be
diminishing from west to east tonight. Plenty of lower cigs
upstream over Minnesota, so kept sky conditions in the mostly cloudy
range through 12z. If any holes in the clouds develop, fog could
develop, but confidence in location is rather low. With the cloud
cover, temps ranging from near 50 in the north to low 60s in the
south.
Tuesday...Mostly cloudy conditions look to start out the day, then
models indicate skies will partially clear into a cu field with the
heat of the day. Otherwise, high pressure will ensure a dry and
seasonable day. Highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
High pressure over Lake Superior is expected to shift into eastern
Ontario Tuesday night, but should still have enough influence to
maintain a dry forecast over northeast WI.
The previous shift mentioned that the current system had trended
slower over the past several days, and a similar trend seems to be
setting up for the midweek system. Models are have backed off on
the arrival of precipitation on Wednesday, with WAA and a short-
wave trof only bringing a chance of showers to our southwest
counties in the afternoon.
The stronger dynamics are set to arrive Wednesday night, with a
couple short-wave trofs, a H8 warm front and the RRQ of an upper
jet (late). In addition, precipitable water values are forecast
to increase to 1.6 to 2.0 inches, so moisture will be plentiful.
Plan to carry likely pops over the entire forecast area. Likely
pops will continue in eastern WI ahead of a cold front on
Thursday, but precipitation should become more scattered elsewhere
as a dry slot arrives. Marginal instability and shear support a
low-end severe weather threat ahead of the cold front, but only if
the surface low tracks far enough north to bring the warm sector
into the forecast area. The ECMWF supports a low track farther to
the south, which would suggest more of a heavy rainfall threat
than a severe threat.
Significant CAA will occur in the wake of the low late Thursday
into Thursday night, with H8 temperatures falling to +9 to +10 C.
The cool NNW flow could lead to some lake-enhanced showers in far
north central WI and over Door county.
High pressure will bring a period of mainly dry weather and
gradually moderating temperatures through the weekend. An
approaching frontal boundary may trigger scattered showers and
thunderstorms early next week, but there are timing differences
in the medium-range models, so details will need to be ironed
out later.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 819 PM CDT Mon Aug 14
2017
SHowers and isolated thunderstorms will exit eastern
Wisconsin late this evening, with some clearing expected across
the northcentral and central portions of the state. Dense fog may
form where skies clear, and conditions below minimums possible at
D25, LNL, ARV, EGV, RHI, TKV, and RRL possible later tonight into
early Tuesday morning. MVFR/IFR conditions elsewhere later
tonight. Skies should clear by midday Tuesday.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......RDM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1001 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017
A few spotty showers and storms will remain possible for areas
mainly east of U.S.-131 this afternoon. These are not expected to be
too strong. Additional showers and storms are expected to move in
late this evening and overnight tonight. The best chance for more
widespread rain will be along and south of I-96. Again, storms are
not expected to become severe. Rain will move out early Tuesday,
with clearing then taking place.
The next chance of rain will then come Wednesday night through
Thursday as the next system moves through the area. Showers will
linger into early Friday before conditions dry out and cool down.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017
I have not significantly changed our going forecast for the
overnight period. There as that northern stream shortwave that
moves through this area during the early morning hours of Tuesday.
We get into the right entrance region of the upper jet and that
helps strengthen the low level jet (as shown by the RAP model and
the HRRR run after run tonight). The current radar and surface
observations support both of those models so I have little reason
to question that they suggest. It should be noted however that the
ESRL HRRR is much drier for SW MI tonight, showing nearly no
precipitation at all. Given the jet entrance region lift that
comes through and that the showers the other models are
forecasting to move in are there, I see no reason to change the
forecast. It should be noted the instability shown on the model
soundings overnight is not impressive, I could see this being more
of a shower event than a thunderstorm event. I have put isolated
thunderstorms instead of thunderstorms likely.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017
Our main items of interest include residual storms this afternoon,
rain potential tonight, and then rain trends for Wed/Wed night. Our
main changes in the forecast include higher rain chances tonight
down south, and a delay in rain chances Wed/Wed night.
A few showers and storms have gone up this afternoon as expected
across interior portions of Central Lower. These have fired along a
convergence zone where the lake breeze/shadow from Lake Michigan is
meeting up with the srly flow inland. Storms are pulsing up and
down, likely due to the thin CAPE profile evidenced by fcst
soundings. These will continue to be possible along this convergence
line, and will likely gradually shift east until they diminish
toward sunset.
We have increased the rain chances for areas along and south of I-96
for tonight. Models are in fairly good consensus in bringing a swath
of rain, some decent amounts, late this evening and overnight. This
is the result of a stronger surge of moisture transport via a 30
knot llj, aimed at the srn half of the area. These storms will be
elevated in nature, with thin CAPE profiles once again. Some heavier
downpours will be possible, but we are not expecting much wind or
hail with these. Rain will come to an end early Tuesday, with
clearing taking place as the system moves east of the area.
The next chance of rain then comes very late Wed afternoon, and Wed
night. We will see ridging move by just north of the area from late
Tue into Wed giving us dry weather and seasonable temperatures.
Return flow will start to increase on Wed behind the front, but this
has been trending slower with time. The slower trend is likely as a
result of the system organizing to our west being a bit stronger. We
will have chances Wed night, but the latest trends would even push
the best rain chances to Thu.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017
During the extended period...the flow pattern in the middle
atmosphere will transition from a blocking pattern with a low over
Quebec to a more summerlike pattern...with a high over Texas and
most of the significant short wave energy well north into Canada.
This will result in above normal temperatures for West Michigan...
especially next week.
The best chance for precipitation locally will be Thursday into
Thursday night. Severe potential continues with this system as it
rotates through the region.
High pressure will be in control for most of the weekend...with
another system poised to move into the region later Monday into
Tuesday.
Highs will range from mid 70s north to lower 80s south on
Thursday...in the mid and upper 70s Friday and Saturday...warming to
lower 80s by Monday.
Lows will range through 60s on Thursday morning...in the lower 60s
Friday...and from the middle 50s to near 60 Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 736 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017
At this point all TAF sites are VFR and anticipate they will
remain so till around 06z or so. There is a northern stream
shortwave currently moving through WI/MN with showers and some
thunderstorms. This area will move through our TAF sites between
06z and 12z. Looking at an ensemble of most of the high
resolution models it looks like all of our TAF sites will see
showers overnight. It is questionable if there is enough
instability for thunderstorms, so I put VCTS and called that good
for now. There is also a cold front pushing south behind the
surface wave that moves through this area early Tuesday morning.
The combination of the rain and the cold front will more than
likely result in some MVFR or even IFR cigs around sunrise
Tuesday. The push of cooler and dry air is strong enough so that
skies should clear by late morning at all of our TAF sites.
The bottom line is VFR till 06z, MVFR with showers and isolated
thunderstorms from 06z till around 12z, then clearing by 16z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017
No marine headlines expected through Wednesday at this time. Winds
should remain fairly limited through most of Wednesday, except for a
brief possible uptick Tue afternoon/evening on the backside of the
system moving through tonight. We expect winds should stay below 20
knots with that increase.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1144 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017
Isolated to scattered showers may result in a brief dampening of
the ground in localized spots this afternoon. Better chances for
rain will come in overnight tonight and early Tuesday morning.
Measurable rainfall of around one-tenth of an inch may fall. Some
locations could receive a couple of tenths of beneficial rainfall.
A more active pattern is expected to setup for the midweek period
as a result of a strengthening wave that passes over the Great
Lakes Region. A deepening trough may result in showery activity
toward next weekend. It is possible for 5-7 day totals to approach
an inch or more in spots. Given recent dry weather, growing
moisture deficits, and near/below normal river levels, flood
concerns remain low.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
939 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south out of Canada Tuesday triggering
showers and thunderstorms by late morning. High pressure builds
in Wednesday before another low pressure system affects the
region Thursday night and Friday with the potential for a period
of heavy rain.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
940 pm Update: Quiet night with latest temps from obs on track.
No changes needed.
655 pm Update: Another quiet night. The veil of high clouds over
southern areas will gradually exit to the east over the next
several hours based on extrapolation of h7 trajs. Input mesonet
data with only minor tweaks needed to temps. Made some
adjustments to sky cover based on satellite to reflect clear
conditions across the north and mountains with the solid area of high
clouds only in southern areas.
Previous Discussion:
Water vapor imagery shows moisture streaming in from the
southwest in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere.
Temperatures had warmed into the 70s and 80s and this combined
with low humidity has resulted in a very pleasant day. A sea
breeze has formed and will be pushing inland shortly capping
highs near the coast.
High pressure dominates the region through tonight before being
shunned offshore. Tropical moisture moving into the region from TS
Gert from the south will result in higher dew points and more
clouds overnight. The increasing low levels will result in
patchy fog in the valleys and other sheltered areas with
denser areas of fog and very low stratus over the Mid Coast.
The latest SREF and HRRR runs support denser fog in this area.
Overnight lows will drop into the 50s north to the lower 60s
south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
On Tuesday the upper low over northern Canada will drop south
and stall north of the Great Lakes. A lead vorticity maxima
currently over northern Minnesota will will eject push a cold
front through New England. A the same time Gert will begin to
eject into the Atlantic somewhere near the Carolinas, pushing
additional moisture northward.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms should form generally ahead
and along the frontal boundary tomorrow. Precipitation will
spread from north to south along with decent frontogenetical
forcing. Ample heating (highs should warm into the upper 70s to
lower 80s) should take place ahead of the boundary which will
result in decent instability. This along with the approaching
short wave will allow convection to blossom and contribute to a
few strong storms.
Small hail and gusty wind terminology was included in the
forecast in agreement with SPC`s day two outlook which has much
of NH and western Maine in a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms tomorrow. A few stronger rotating cells are likely
with about 50 kts of shear in the 0-6km layer. Individual
supercells will move ENE with the potential for heavy rain,
marginally severe hail, and damaging winds. Expect this activity
to die out with the loss of heating and as forcing for ascent
moves away. The front itself should move offshore by Wednesday
morning bringing an end to precipitation.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The models have come into better agreement over the past 24 hours
with decent agreement on the long wave pattern into next weekend.
The omega block centered across the Canadian Prairies...with the
eastern anchor trough found across eastern Canada and New
England...will break down early in the extended period. We`re
left with shortwave ridging for Wednesday and Thursday. The next
shortwave impulse and associated surface reflection will then
approach from the Great Lakes for Thursday night and Friday...as
the ECMWF has come into much better agreement with the remainder
of the model suite on a slower arrival time with this system.
Unfortunately...shortwave energy now carves out a trough axis to
our west by the start of the weekend. This promises a period of
onshore flow and unsettled weather for the weekend as a complex
area of low pressure slowly traverses New England.
In the dailies...A ridge of high pressure will build into the
region for Wednesday and Thursday. Low pressure approaches from
the Great Lakes for Thursday night and Friday. This slow-moving
system is then expected to linger into the upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...Low clouds and stratus will form tonight,
mainly on the Mid Coast of Maine but also for LEB and HIE as
moisture increases and forcing for ascent nears. Otherwise RKD
and AUG look to be hardest hit. VFR conditions are expected on
Tuesday after any stratus and fog burns off, but a few showers
and thunderstorms may bring briefly lower ceilings in heavy
rain. LEB and HIE will be the first and most likely to
experience -TSRA. There will be a wind shift to the west
northwest late Tuesday night as the front moves offshore.
Long Term...
Thu night - Sat...Areas of MVFR in shra/tsra with lcl IFR
conditions psbl in fog.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Conditions are expected to remain below small craft
thresholds through Wednesday morning.
Long Term...
Wed PM...Winds and seas may briefly approach small craft outside
the bays.
Fri PM - Sat...Winds and seas may approach small craft on all
waters.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The weather radar at Gray (GYX) will be down for maintenance
until approximately Tuesday, August 14th. During that time
technicians will be installing important upgrades. This work has
been scheduled to minimize any potential impacts to office
operations.
During the outage, radar coverage is available from adjacent
radar sites including Burlington-Vermont (KCXX), Taunton-
Massachusetts (KBOX), and Hodgdon-Maine (KCBW).
Also, the radar at Albany (KENX) suffered a failure that has
been attributed to azimuthal motor/gear issues. It is expected
to be down for several days.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1009 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
.UPDATE...
Radar imagery show showers have dissipated across Montgomery and
Harris counties this evening, leaving clear skies across much of
SE TX. Low temperatures tonight will remain above normal for this
time of year, with low 80s along the coast and upper 70s further
inland.
Minor changes were made to the forecast this evening.
Expecting a small break Tuesday from the dominant 500 mb ridge
which weakened and shifted west this afternoon, leaving us in an
area of weakness throughout the day tomorrow. Went ahead and
raised PoPs slightly to account for the better coverage indicated
by the 00Z HRRR and RAP13 short term guidance. With the seabreeze,
bay breeze, and potential pocket of positive vorticity (as
indicated by the 18Z GFS) moving across the region acting as
possible forcing mechanisms for tomorrow`s activity, scattered
shower and thunderstorm development will be possible mainly along
the coast and southeastern counties of the CWA. Tomorrow still
looks to provide the best chance of precip through the rest of the
week.
Although tomorrow will once again be another warm day,
areas that see the convection tomorrow could result in their high
temperatures being a degree or two cooler than what we`ve seen
over these last few days. Therefore, forecast high temperatures
along the coast and eastern counties are in the upper 80s to mid
90s. Regions that do not see precip tomorrow will still be
battling the heat with high temperatures reaching up into the mid
to upper 90s once again. By Tuesday 00Z, upper level ridging
begins to build back in from the east and should shift overhead,
parking itself over SE TX through the remainder of the week.
Hathaway
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017/
AVIATION...
Other than some (vicinity) thunder in and around CXO this
evening...VFR will prevail through the sunrise hour. Periodic
short-lived MVFR ceilings over far interior hubs...scattering out
to a FEW-SCT cumulus field tomorrow afternoon. An analogous
scenario with light onshore winds and isolated late day shower
activity. 31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017/
DISCUSSION...
The main driver of the forecast over the next several days appears
to be the strength and location of ridging aloft, which will nudge
temperatures modestly up or down, and determining whether there will
be potential for scattered showers and storms, or a more suppressed
atmosphere. Day to day changes will likely be rather small into the
weekend, with only subtle changes. Thus, the focus will almost
certainly continue to be the characteristic hot, humid summer of
Southeast Texas.
Luchs
NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Through 2 pm, the radar has been pretty quiet, outside of a couple
isolated showers in Liberty County. Though some subtle features
could be seen in the low level GOES-16 water vapor imagery,
subsidence under the ridge appears to largely be winning out,
except in the vicinity of Galveston Bay (which likely explains the
isolated showers in Liberty County). Meanwhile, after a fast
start, temperature rises this afternoon have leveled out somewhat.
The idea of a hot, humid day that sees the heat index near the
coast top out just below heat advisory thresholds still seems
safe.
This evening, any showers that do manage to initiate today should
wind down very quickly. However, despite the loss of solar heating,
temperatures aren`t likely to go into a tailspin. With overnight
dewpoints in the middle 70s to around 80, low temperatures tonight
will again be very warm. Houston, Hobby Airport, and Galveston are
all currently at least tied for their record warm mins today, and
though it may be close, there`s a strong chance all of them hold on.
SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
The upper ridge looks to briefly weaken Tuesday, and both the GFS
and Euro suggest some subtle midlevel vorticity slides across
Southeast Texas. But don`t want to sell out too hard on PoPs, as the
NAM modestly lowers heights, but doesn`t show any vort lobes and as
a consequence looks pretty dry. Put the highest PoPs in that subtle
Galveston/Gulf seabreeze convergence zone, which may benefit most
from the lower heights aloft. Temperatures may be a touch (read: a
degree or two) cooler, but with such a brief, modest change in the
column and such a warm start to the day, there should be little to
no change in temps.
After that, look for things to settle back down Wednesday as ridging
attempts to build in yet again from the east. Again, we`re only
looking for modest changes in heights and surface pattern, so
changes will be minimal, but may ultimately lock in Tuesday as the
best potential for rain, as Wednesday backs down to isolated or
widely scattered development.
Both days again look to have heat index values that are on the
fringe of the heat advisory threshold again. Whether an advisory
is necessary will likely depend on sky cover and the state of
boundary layer moisture, determining if dewpoints will mix out or
stay high enough to boost the heat index past 108. Both aspects
are very difficult to forecast from much range, so it seems calls
on any advisories will be a day to day call. Expect this trend to
continue through the week.
LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...Discussion
Pretty good agreement in the guidance for a 595-ish midlevel high
stacked over a surface high to develop over the northern Gulf
coast and drift westward late in the week. This seems likely to
clamp down on rainfall potential pretty well for the late week,
with only modestly better potential this weekend on the backside
of the high. Another thing to watch for this weekend that`s
emerged in the 12Z guidance is a TUTT moving across the Gulf
behind this ridge. This may help to boost rainfall potential by
lowering heights and increasing vorticity advection over the
region. However, this is a relative newcomer with this morning`s
model runs and we`re looking nearly a week out, so it`s probably
best not to commit too much to a specific scenario.
Though a ridge in the area of 595 dm isn`t astoundingly strong by
the area`s standards, we should see response in temperatures from
subsident warming over time as it moves slowly along. It may not be
quite as apparent near the coast with the moderating water, but do
introduce isolated triple digit temps in the northwest towards
College Station late in the work week.
MARINE...
Moderate onshore winds (mainly from the south) will persist for the
next several days with caution level speeds expected during the
overnight hours. Winds will gradually weaken toward the end of the
week and over the weekend. 42
CLIMATE...
Houston Hobby is on track to break a record high min temp today.
Low so far is 81, record is 80 (2015). Both Galveston and City of
Houston (IAH) are on track to tie their previous records.
Galveston with 84 in 2010 and Houston with 81 in 1951.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 98 78 98 78 / 10 10 0 20 10
Houston (IAH) 79 95 81 94 81 / 10 40 10 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 84 90 85 89 85 / 10 30 20 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Update...08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
838 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
The latest surface map indicates a weak cool front over east
central Iowa early this evening. This boundary is expected to
slowly edge southeast into our area but not until tomorrow
morning based on the latest HRRR model. Shower development
has been few and far between late this afternoon into early
this evening as the upper wave and forcing has shifted off
to our northeast. Latest ILX and DVN soundings indicating
rather weak mid level lapse rates and a lack of deep moisture
in the sounding profiles. Will continue to carry the isolated
wording across the north as the front settles into our area
Tuesday morning.
With the boundary in our area on Tuesday combined with some
daytime heating, isolated to widely scattered convection will be
possible in the afternoon, but again, large scale forcing will not
be present, so coverage looks to be rather limited with any
convection that does develop, and that would be tied closer to
where the front sets up tomorrow. Other than some minor tweaks
to the early evening temperatures, no other changes were made to
the grids that would require a forecast update at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
19z/2pm surface analysis shows 1009mb low over southeast Minnesota
with weak cold front trailing into Nebraska. As the low moves
slowly eastward over the next 12-24 hours, the frontal boundary
will sink southward and eventually stall across central Illinois
by Tuesday morning. While boundary layer moisture has been on the
increase today resulting in surface dewpoints rising into the
middle to upper 60s, deep-layer moisture will remain sparse
through the period. As a result, areal coverage of convection
associated with the boundary will be low. Based on 12z NAM and
latest HRRR, have included slight chance PoPs along/north of a
Macomb to Bloomington line tonight. The front will become
stationary near the I-72 corridor on Tuesday, with isolated to
widely scattered convection developing in its vicinity. Have
therefore carried low chance PoPs across all but the far SE KILX
CWA by Tuesday afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will be in the
middle to upper 60s, while highs on Tuesday reach the middle 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
A short-wave trough will cross the Rockies on Wednesday, invoking
an increasingly moist southwesterly flow downstream across the
Midwest. As a result, showers and thunderstorms will become more
prevalent across central Illinois by Wednesday afternoon, with
30-40 PoPs warranted across the board. The best rain chances of
the entire forecast period will materialize Wednesday night into
Thursday morning as the upper wave and its associated cold front
approach from the west. Thanks to deeper moisture profiles, this
system will produce widespread showers/thunder, warranting likely
PoPs everywhere Wednesday night...then just across east-central
Illinois by Thursday morning. The front will pass through the KILX
CWA by midday Thursday, resulting in rapidly diminishing rain
chances by afternoon. A slightly cooler/drier airmass will arrive
in the wake of the front Thursday night into Friday, with lows
dropping into the lower to middle 60s and highs on Friday staying
mostly in the lower 80s. After that, both the 12z GFS and ECMWF
suggest the next short-wave will arrive by Saturday. The GFS
remains more aggressive with its QPF, while the ECMWF indicates
much less precip with this feature. At this time, will increase
cloud cover and go with just a slight chance for showers/thunder
on Saturday until better model consistency is achieved.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
VFR conditions through this evening then we will need to watch for
the potential for MVFR conditions (cigs & vsbys) after 09z,
especially across the north, as a frontal system slips south into
our area. Isolated showers and TSRA will be possible across our
northern TAF sites but coverage appears to be too limited to
include in the forecast. Any MVFR cigs across the north will
gradually lift after 15z on Tuesday with sct-bkn cumulus expected
during the afternoon across most of the area. Once again, with a
frontal boundary stretching across central IL, we could see an
isolated TSRA develop during the afternoon. Surface winds tonight
will be light south to southwest with winds shifting into a
northerly direction at PIA and BMI, while winds at SPI, DEC and
CMI will be westerly at 5 to 10 kts during the day.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1038 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1037 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017
Have continued to tweak pops throughout the evening based on
latest radar trends and hi-res guidance. Currently scattered to
numerous showers are located over far the far SE portion of the
CWA, with lightning/thunder continuing to wane. Have thunder
diminishing completely over the next few hours. Otherwise, reduced
pops to only scattered for the rest of the night based on latest
hi-res model trends. Also updated the forecast through tomorrow to
change to coverage wording in the weather grids instead of
probabilities. Finally, freshened up the near term grids for
temps, dew points, and winds to make sure they were on track with
current conditions. All changes have been published and sent to
NDFD/web. A new set of zones was also sent out to reflect latest
changes in pops/weather for overnight.
UPDATE Issued at 717 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017
Made a couple updates, mainly to pops and weather, over the last
few hours. Tried to get pops more on track with current radar
trends. Lended a bit towards the HRRR for model guidance as it
seemed to be initializing well and has thus far panned out pretty
well. However, some continued adjustments and updates are expected
throughout the rest of the evening as things evolve. Also updated
the near term forecast for temps, dew points, and winds, to make
sure they were on track with current conditions. All updates have
been published and sent to NDFD/web. A new forecast package was
sent out to reflect updated weather earlier in the afternoon. A
new HWO will be sent out later this evening once remaining thunder
has tapered off.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 347 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017
...Locally heavy rains possible this afternoon and overnight...
Scattered thunderstorms with very heavy rains have moved into the
southwest part of the forecast area. These will continue to move
northeast but should decrease in intensity as we move into the
evening. Will mention locally heavy rains in the updated hazardous
weather outlook for the remainder of the afternoon and evening.
As we move into the overnight period another wave of showers
should affect the southern and central part of the forecast area
as a subtle short wave ripples through the mean flow. The GFS and
NAM MOS guidance as well as the blended forecast guidance point
towards likely to high chance rain probabilities for the overnight
period. Will follow that idea for tonight. A concern is locally
heavy rain tonight. The excessive rainfall outlook does not
include SE KY, but with the marginal risk right along the TN and
VA border this will be something to watch especially with precipitable
water right around 2 inches. We also received a spotter report of
1 inch of rain in Floyd County this morning with showers, and
this corresponded well with radar estimates for a small part of
the county. This helped highlight the efficient rain production
of showers in the current warm moist air mass. The NAM continued
its trend of trying to pinpoint an area of heavy rain tonight on
the order of 2-3 inches, and is still trying to point towards the
west central part of the forecast area. Pinpointing the location
of such a local high rain amount cannot be relied upon, and as
noted by the midnight forecast shift the NAM has been rather
inconsistent and an outlier when compared to the other models in
recent runs. This continued with the 12z runs. Despite that, with
the rainfall report this morning of 1 inch, the current radar
trends, the efficient rain production of the shower and storms
we`ve already seen, and the expected efficiency of showers and
storms this evening into the overnight, any showers and storms
will need to be monitored for excessive rain. On Tuesday more
showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but chances will be on
a downward trend through the day.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017
Warm humid conditions and a daily threat of showers and storms
will continue through the remainder of the week. The best chances
for showers and storms will come Thursday night into Friday with
the passage of a slow moving cold front. Slightly cooler and less
humid air will arrive for the weekend with dewpoints falling into
the lower to middle 60s. While it is still a week away, current
indications are that viewing of the partial eclipse here in
eastern KY will be okay, with no rain or extensive cloud cover in
the Monday forecast at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 826 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2017
Scattered showers are continuing to affect eastern Kentucky this
evening, with at least some chance for all TAF sites to be
impacted. Coverage may possibly increase near dawn in the far SE
portion of the state. Loss of instability should prevent any new
thunder development throughout the overnight, so just went with
VCSH at all TAF sites. By tomorrow, warming temps could lead to
more thunderstorm development in the afternoon, but given
uncertainty whether any particular TAF site will be impacted,
kept with VCTS at this time. Winds will remain light and variable
throughout the period. The main concern for this TAF is the
potential for fog development as well as lower clouds. With
abundant moisture across the region, still leaning towards LIFR or
conditions late tonight through dawn tomorrow. However, can`t
rule out some brief drops below this CAT. Conditions should begin
improving by daybreak tomorrow, but expected BKN cloud cover in
the low end VFR range through the afternoon. Any
showers/thunderstorms that impact a TAF site could also have
temporary adverse impacts on the visibility.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...JMW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
719 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
The HRRR, HRRR EXP and GFS were the basis for rain chances tonight
and Tuesday. Two or more MCS`s should form. One tonight and a second
or third Tuesday.
The system tonight is spawned off the Big Horns and Laramie range
this afternoon. This storm activity is expected to grow upscale,
mainly affecting SD this evening. Some of the HRRR solns show
isolated activity over the Sandhills late this afternoon ahead of
the WY storms. There is considerable variability in the extent of
upscale growth across Wrn Neb this evening with some solns showing
more storm coverage than others. POPS are limited to 30 percent for
this reason.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in many areas
Tuesday morning. The extent of upscale growth tonight could deeply
influence the sfc focus Tuesday across Neb. The consensus of the
HRRR EXP, NAM and GFS suggested storms firing on a frontal boundary
laying somewhere across the cntl Sandhills...perhaps near or
along highway 2.
The NAM nest and HRRR EXP show upscale storm growth across the ern
Sandhills which drops south into Custer Co. where a flash flood
watch will be posted.
Rain activity should continue well into Tuesday night, generally
along and east of highway 83. The model consensus shows sfc dew
points in the upper 60s to around 70 with deep moisture aloft
supporting storms capable of heavy rainfall. WPC suggested the
increasing low level jet could support back building or train storm
behavior.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
Rain activity should continue well into Tuesday night, generally
along and east of highway 83. The model consensus shows sfc dew
points in the upper 60s to around 70 with deep moisture aloft
supporting storms capable of heavy rainfall. WPC suggested the
increasing low level jet could support back building or training
storm behavior.
The models then show a second, post-frontal, disturbance moving
through Wednesday morning. Dry weather is expected Wednesday evening
and Thursday with cool temperatures. A northwest flow disturbance may
produces showers and thunderstorms Thursday night.
Dry weather is in place Friday through Monday with just an isolated
rain chance. This is the result of a warming trend as H700mb
temperatures rise toward 14C by Monday which should cap most
opportunities for thunderstorm development. Still, a blend of bias
corrected model temperatures and the National blend of model
data produces highs in the upper 80s to around 90.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of southwest
Nebraska this evening, then later tonight a cluster of
thunderstorms is expected to move out of the panhandle into north
central Nebraska. Those could move across the KVTN TAF site, but
for now no thunder is expected at KLBF. Winds tonight into Tuesday
morning will be southeast around 10 KTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
3-hour flash flood guidance has fallen to around 2 inches across
parts of Southwest and Ncntl Neb. The key feature could be the 7-day
rain totals across parts of Custer and Frontier Counties of 3 to 7
inches.
Conditions will become favorable for thunderstorms and heavy
rainfall Tuesday afternoon-Tuesday night. Ambient precipitable water
increases to over 1.5 inches and winds aloft are fairly weak and
unidirectional.
The models show a frontal boundary dropping into Ncntl Nebraska
Tuesday night which could be the focus to storm development. The
forecast places Custer County in a flash flood watch Tuesday
afternoon through early Wednesday morning.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
morning for NEZ038.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Taylor
HYDROLOGY...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
936 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
.UPDATE...
936 PM CDT
For Evening Update...
Have continued to lower pops/thunder potential this evening and
overnight, with weak mid-level lapse rates and weak low level
convergence apparently working against favorable large scale
forcing and resulting in little shower/thunderstorm development.
Weak surface low pressure was analyzed over far northeast IA late
this afternoon, with a subtle quasi-warm frontal feature extending
southeast into northern/central IL. Despite fairly strong mid-
level short wave digging southeast across the Upper Mississippi
Valley during peak diurnal heating, and MLCAPE values 500-1000
J/kg (around 700 J/kg per DVN 00Z sounding), little organized
convection developed across the region. While broad areas of
modestly enhanced cu were noted in GOES-16 vis imagery, low level
convergence remained fairly weak, and mid-level lapse rates of
5.5-6 C/km resulted in little development other than a few
isolated cells over northeast IA. A few isolated showers were
noted over parts of northern IL as boundary layer cooled and
instability become a bit elevated above with sunset, but these too
have fizzled for the most part over the past hour or so. High-res
convection allowing guidance has been significantly overdone in
developing convection across northern IL since this afternoon, and
successive runs continue to back off on coverage overnight. While
current radar depiction would suggest little threat of precip
overnight, weak but persistent theta-E advection above subtle warm
frontal feature may continue to produce some festering weak
convection at times overnight beneath the southern periphery of
the aforementioned mid-level wave just to our north. Thus not
comfortable going dry, though have limited pops to 30 percent or
less and many areas will likely see no rain.
Trailing weak surface cold front/trough is progged to sag across
central IL Tuesday. Guidance continues to indicate some light qpf
in the vicinity of this boundary into the afternoon hours, though
mid-level ridging develops and suggests little support beyond a
little convergence right near the boundary. Based on this have
also lowered or removed pops except for south of a VYS-VPZ line,
and lowered pops slightly there.
Updated digital forecast/zfp available.
Ratzer
&&
.SHORT TERM...
234 PM CDT
Through Tuesday...
Debris clouds from early morning thunderstorms kept temperatures a
bit cooler than expected this morning. However, those clouds are
dissipating as they push east, and temperatures are rebounding
nicely.
Weak low pressure over Iowa will pass over southern Lake Michigan
tonight. Scattered storms are expected to form across north-central
IL this evening. Guidance has been struggling with convection most
of today and many models are already overdoing thunderstorm
coverage. Therefore, while I expect scattered storms, I am uncertain
about coverage and exactly when thunderstorms will form. The latest
RAP guidance suggests the atmosphere is in the process of
destabilizing, but surface CIN remains.
Therefore, expecting scattered storms to form near the Rockford area
between 00-02Z/ 7-9PM CDT. Storms will shift east through the
evening. A couple of storms may become strong, but I am not
expecting widespread severe weather. CAPE values should be 1000 J/kg
or less and 0-6km shear will be around 40 kt. The strongest
storms may produce gusty winds.
Weak winds and recent rainfall will probably lead to patchy fog
in outlying areas tonight. The low`s cold front pushes south early
Tuesday morning with winds becoming north to northeast behind it.
12Z guidance has the cold front stalling across central IL, a bit
further south than previous runs. As such, thinking the focus for
thunderstorms Tuesday will be further south. Kept up to a chance
of showers and storms south of I-80, but the main focus may even
be further south across WFO ILX`s forecast area. Temperatures
Tuesday will be similar to today except for cooler along the lake.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
255 PM CDT
Tuesday night through Monday...
With Tuesday looking drier than previously anticipated, weak ridging
should be in place and a diffuse stationary front parked just south
of the area by late Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Northeasterly
low level flow Tuesday night will transition to south to
southeasterly by midday on Wednesday as the stationary front lifts
through as a warm front and starts feeding higher dewpoints into the
area.
The GFS and ECMWF disagree on how quickly to develop showers during
the day Wednesday, apparently in part due to differences in the
degree of low level convergence in the warm sector, afternoon
destabilization, and supporting shortwaves aloft. Using the NAM as a
tiebreaker would support the much slower ECMWF solution and keep
much of the area dry until evening. For now will plan to carry
slight chance to chance POPs for most of Wednesday and go with
likelies for the evening and overnight.
Somewhat better model agreement supports hanging onto at least
chance POPs for most of Thursday as well. A cold frontal passage
was previously expected a bit earlier in the period but now looks
to be on track for the middle of the day Thursday.
Friday looks dry and cooler with northwest winds but residual low
level moisture and steep midlevel lapse rates likely will support
increasing cloudiness in the afternoon along with the possibility of
a few sprinkles.
The picture for the weekend is of course far less certain but
current trends suggest Saturday could see scattered showers with a
passing small amplitude trough aloft, while Sunday presently looks
dry under the influence of increasing heights aloft and ridging at
the surface.
And then there is the question for Monday and the eclipse. A very
early look gives hope that the ridge anticipated to be overhead
Sunday may still be blocking moisture return and providing large
scale subsidence through the first part of Monday. Or perhaps the
pattern will slow down a bit and not move the ridge into the area
until Sunday night or Monday. It remains too early to have much
confidence in any specific solution, but for now we will start
with a dry forecast and partly cloudy skies.
Lenning
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...
South-southwest winds continue this afternoon, and the winds
were strong enough to keep the lake breeze east of ORD and MDW.
Scattered thunderstorms have developed over nwrn IL/swrn WI and
are still expected to progress ewd across the area through the
evening. The high res model guidance is struggling to handle the
thunderstorm activity and latest trends have been slower than
previously anticipated. So, have backed off TS mention to vcts at
the terminals since confidence, especially in timing and coverage
is relatively, low.
Through the night, high pressure will build across the region and
winds will diminish to light and variable. Some mvfr br
development is possible at RFD/DPA and generally sheltered , low
lying locations. Expect that ORD/MDW should remain vfr, or
possibly a brief period of 4-5sm br. A cold front is expected to
sink south early Tuesday morning and with winds becoming north to
northeast. Low cigs are also possible in the marine-cooled
environment behind the front when winds turn off of Lake Michigan.
Cloud cover should scatter out with daytime warming and mixing.
&&
.MARINE...
255 PM CDT
A weak cold front dropping across the lake tonight will turn winds
northeast and then north. The front will stall well south of the
lake Tuesday before lifting back north as a warm front on
Wednesday with strengthening south and southeast winds behind
it Wednesday night and Thursday. A stronger cold front then
crosses the lake Thursday and returns winds to a more
northwesterly direction.
Lenning
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
618 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
.AVIATION...
The potential exists again tonight for a thunderstorm complex to
roll across the region. Will hold off on introduction of TS at
this time, but models are zeroing in on threat at KPVW and KLBB
between 06z and 09z and at KCDS after 09z. Otherwise, VFR and
light south winds are likely to prevail through Tuesday morning.
South winds are expected to pick up some Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 241 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017/
DISCUSSION...
RAP and satellite analysis showed a longwave trough pushing into the
Great Basin region this afternoon. A small shortwave appeared to be
developing on the lee-side of this trough in southern CO, which will
be a focus for convection later this afternoon and evening. Short
term models also show afternoon convection developing over the high
terrain of NM and pushing eastward. A CAPE-rich environment will be
available, on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg, and plenty of moisture is
in place with PWATs around 1.2 inches. The HRRR has done well with
the past several events, and tonight, it is developing yet another
complex of storms to bring through much of the forecast area. With
the abundant moisture, heavy rainfall is a threat, which could lead
to damaging downburst winds.
For Tuesday, the longwave trough pushes further east with another
shortwave affecting the region. Upper level support looks to be
favorable for sustained convection with low- and mid-level moisture
still plentiful. This should be our last day of widespread storms as
high pressure over the SE US begins to retrograde towards the
central Southern US. Moisture will not completely disappear,
though, so a few afternoon thunderstorms are possible. Afternoon
highs will remain fairly steady around seasonal norms.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
07
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
913 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
.DISCUSSION...
Have made some minor adjustments to overnight POP and weather
grids, keeping chance of rain relatively low and trending toward
thunder-less precip. Otherwise, little change.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...Scattered showers continue moving across Middle
Tennessee late this afternoon, with the strongest activity
remaining south of I-40. HRRR shows mainly light showers lasting
well into the evening, so will cover this with VCSH remarks,
except TEMPO showers at CSV. Look for ceilings to drop
considerably this evening and overnight, with MVFR and possibly
IFR conditions developing. This will limit the radiational cooling
and should keep fog from becoming particularly dense. Showers are
once again possible tomorrow, mainly south of I-40. Will handle
these with PROB30 remarks.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 72 88 73 91 75 / 40 30 20 30 20
Clarksville 71 86 71 88 74 / 20 20 20 30 20
Crossville 70 81 69 84 72 / 40 30 20 30 20
Columbia 71 87 73 90 74 / 40 30 20 40 20
Lawrenceburg 71 86 72 89 74 / 40 30 20 40 20
Waverly 71 86 73 89 75 / 20 30 20 30 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......19
AVIATION........08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
814 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
The approach of an upper level disturbance through Tennessee
will help draw a stalled frontal boundary back into our region
overnight. The interaction of the front and system will allow
for increasing coverage of showers, and a few storms, across
mainly western sections of the region. On Tuesday, the front
will buckle back south with the departure of the upper system,
returning the focus for additional showers, and a few storms, to
the southeastern sections of the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Monday...
A stationary front extended from Georgia to the eastern North
Carolina. An area of low pressure was moving east through
Tennessee. This low will help buckle the stationary front back
north as a warm front this evening as the low makes progression
east toward our region. Have focused the highest probability of
precipitation across southern Virginia and northwest North
Carolina between 11PM and 8AM based in the timing of the
precipitation currently in the Tennessee Valley as depicted by
the last few HRRR runs and other high resolution guidance.
More fog is expected for tonight due to the light surface winds,
dew points in the mid 60s to lower 70s and the expected
precipitation. The fog is expected to dissipate by mid- morning
Tuesday.
During the day Tuesday, the front will have slipped back south a
bit, but not too far outside of our region that it won`t act as a
focus for for additional showers and storms to develop along it
during the heating of the day. Anticipate the southeast
sections of the forecast area to have the best coverage of
precipitation on Tuesday. Low temperatures tonight will be
comparable to those of this morning given limited change in our
airmass.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 312 PM EDT Monday...
We`ll finally be able to rid ourselves of cloudy, rainy wedge
conditions Tuesday evening. With mid-level heights generally rising
and a steady stream of southwesterly warm and moist advection
Wednesday night into Thursday, it portends a return to warmer and
more humid conditions. As far as rainfall chances go, though a
limited chance should exist Wednesday, the better chance for showers
and thunderstorms is later Thursday and Friday associated with a
upper-level disturbance and related surface low/cold front, each of
which passes well to our north.
First in a series of weak disturbances in broad mid-level southwest
flow advances eastward before midnight Tuesday evening, with
clearing expected from northwest to southeast. Lingering periods of
showers, with a couple embedded thunderstorms should remain possible
through the evening with the best chance in the east and south
early. Steady NW -> SE decrease in PoPs after midnight. As clearing
begins after midnight, should also see periods of radiation fog in
the western river valleys with weak ridge of surface high pressure
gradually nosing southeastward. All in all still a rather mild night
with lows in the mid to upper 60s, though lower 60s in the
Greenbrier Valley and along the southern Blue Ridge into the NC high
country.
For Wednesday, at least the first part of the day should be on the
dry side. Today`s 12z guidance does show a mid-level vorticity max
embedded in broader mid-level height rises that rotates from the
Cumberland Plateau into western NC. The NAM shows a weaker
disturbance and also less of an impact for our area, while the GFS
and the ECMWF would warrant at least slight to lower end Chance PoPs
Wednesday afternoon and early evening across the southern half of
the county warning area for showers and garden-variety storms. Sided
toward the global models in showing PoPs in the 20-30% range from a
line along and south of Bluefield to Rocky Mount to Appomattox,
highest furthest south. With weak wind flow leading to slow storm
motion, could see some heavier downpours in spots. Coverage should
diminish by mid-evening with forecast trending dry for Wednesday
night. In the wake of this disturbance, warm advection commences
Wednesday night leading the first of a couple mild and muggy nights.
Highs mainly in the 80s with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Today`s model guidance continue to show a frontal system and
associated upper-level disturbance passing across the Ohio Valley
and into the northern mid-Atlantic Thursday afternoon into Friday.
On Thursday, the best co-location of stronger convective
instability/deep-layer shear is more in IN/OH, which suggests a more
organized scattered severe threat away from the Appalachians and
Piedmont. Under modest height falls aloft and model-derived surface
winds indicating surface convergence axis/pre-frontal trough along
the western Appalachians, surface-based CAPEs of under 1500 J/kg
with surface heat should generate scattered thunderstorms during the
afternoon primarily in that area, with more isolated coverage
elsewhere. Greater potential for more widespread showers and
isolated embedded thunderstorms for the evening, this being
essentially remnants from Ohio Valley storms. On Friday, a
considerable amount of early-day cloudiness casts enough question on
convective instability - if not limiting it entirely - ahead of the
cold front aloft/850 mb wind shift. With limited deep-layer shear to
values under 30 kts, thunderstorms would not likely be strong based
on current indications from guidance. Warmest day would be Thursday
with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s, and with dewpoints in the 60s
to low 70s it leads to heat indices in the upper 90s in the Piedmont
away from Smith Mountain Lake. More cloudiness supports highs in the
80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 312 PM EDT Monday...
Cold front finally moves across the forecast area Friday night. A
considerable amount of variance exists in the 12z GFS and ECMWF
solutions for the weekend, particularly on if the front makes a full
clear across VA or if it hangs around/stalls and picks up tropical
moisture keeping our eastern and southern counties wet. Adding to
this uncertainty is the timing of a mid-level disturbance in the
northern stream across the Great Lakes region. Therefore, kept at
least 15-30% PoPs east of the Blue Ridge for the weekend until less
variability in guidance becomes apparent. Stayed close to a blend of
guidance for highs and lows which keep temperatures near typical mid-
August levels. A potentially warmer period is indicated by the GFS
and ECMWF early next week as a broad heat ridge dominates much of
the Plains and into the Ohio Valley.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Monday...
Stratus in the foothills and piedmont of Virginia and North
Carolina dissipated late today for a brief break in sub VFR
conditions at KLYH and KDAN but a short wave tracking out of
the Tennessee Valley will spread numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms across southwest Virginia, northwest North
Carolina and southeast West Virginia overnight. MVFR ceilings
will fill back in across the region before midnight with IFR to
LIFR clouds over the mountains and in any pockets of very heavy
rain. Medium confidence that a majority of the precipitation
will cross through the region between 03Z/11PM and 12Z/8AM.
South to southeast winds will remain light at the surface.
Combined with dew points around 70 and all the precipitation
high confidence that areas of fog will develop this evening.
Visibilities will be in the MVFR range.
On Tuesday, medium confidence of slow improvement of ceilings
and visibility. Once a weak surface low crosses into eastern
Virginia, and surface winds become more west and northwest,
conditions will improve, especially east of the Blue Ridge. This
may not be until after 18Z/2PM at KROA, KLYH, and KDAN.
Extended Aviation Discussion...
Widespread fog is again expected on Tuesday night. Wednesday
into Thursday the frontal boundary to our south will meander
north and south for a bit until such time the departure of T.S.
Gert allows the front to be shunted to the southeast. While the
front is in our proximity, daily scattered precipitation and
rounds of sub-VFR conditions are probable. Late night/early
morning mountain and river valley sub-VFR fog will be possible.
Friday into Saturday, we look to our northwest for our next
approaching upper level system. This one will bring a cold
front into and through the area Friday night. Look for an
increase in precipitation on Friday with storms possible during
the afternoon and evening. Sub-VFR conditions will accompany
the heavier showers and storms, and also persist in the form of
late night and early morning fog heading into Saturday morning.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
As of 755 PM EDT Saturday Aug 12th...
KFCX doppler radar will continue to be down for the rest of the
month due to a failing bull gear. It will only be operational
during this time frame for brief periods if an imminent
significant widespread severe weather and/or hydrologic event
occurs. Operating the system for any amount of time until the
bull gear is replaced risks a catastrophic failure that would
further extend system downtime. From the 17th through the 27th
the radar will most likely be down completely as the repairs
are expected to be made during this period.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AL
LONG TERM...AL
AVIATION...AMS/DS
EQUIPMENT...RAB/WERT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
630 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Storms near KABI (Abilene) will continue into the early evening
hours, and although the strongest part of the storm should stay
south of the terminal, some drop in visibility and/or ceiling is
still possible. Elsewhere, hit and miss storms will continue
across the area, but nothing look like it will be approaching any
of the terminals soon. Will leave out of the forecast for now.
Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions will prevail with south to
southeast winds of around 10 knots continuing.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 254 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)
Weak upper level disturbances moving across West Central Texas and
old outflow boundaries will set the stage for late afternoon and
evening isolated to scattered thunderstorms through Tuesday. Water
vapor satellite seems to show a disturbance moving east across Far
West Texas at 18Z. HRRR and Texas Tech WRF shows some isolated to
scattered precipitation developing across the area this afternoon.
Have continued slight to chance Pops mainly west of a line from
Junction to Brady this afternoon and again on Tuesday. Any one of
these storms can produce strong gusty winds and very heavy rain.
Highs on Tuesday should warm into mid and upper 90s, with a few low
90s near Eldorado, Ozona and Sonora.
LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)
West Central Texas will be in southwest flow aloft, Tuesday night
into Wednesday night, as an upper level trough develops across the
western CONUS and an upper level ridge remains across the Southeast
United States. Models are indicating an upper level disturbance
tracking across West Texas late Tuesday afternoon/evening,
resulting in isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorms
development. Some of this activity may approach our western
counties during the evening hours. Chance PoPs were continued
across our western counties, decreasing as you head south and
east. Overnight lows will mainly be in the mid 70s. The main
concern with these storms will be locally heavy rainfall and
strong gusty winds.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are once again possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening, although coverage should be less than what is
forecast on Tuesday. Above normal temperatures are once again
forecast, with highs in the mid to upper 90s.
Upper level ridging is forecast to build back into the area by the
end of the work week and into the weekend. A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday, although coverage is
forecast remain very isolated. Rain chances will drop to near zero
by this weekend, as the upper level ridge strengthens over the area.
Temperatures through the period will be above normal, in the mid to
upper 90s, with a few locations approaching the century mark.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 75 98 77 97 / 20 20 30 20
San Angelo 75 97 75 97 / 20 20 20 20
Junction 74 97 75 96 / 5 0 10 10
Brownwood 74 98 76 97 / 5 5 20 10
Sweetwater 75 95 75 96 / 30 20 40 20
Ozona 74 93 75 95 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
07