Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/06/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1015 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1014 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017
Showers and even a few thunderstorms crossing Lake Michigan over
the last couple hours have been struggling to maintain their
intensity as they encounter a comparatively drier, more stable
airmass over northern Lower. The 00Z APX sounding reveals a dry
column overhead with a PW around 0.6 inches. So, expect showers to
continue to erode the farther east they progress, but a few could
brush the lakeshore counties of northwest Lower. Have therefore
included a slight chance of showers along the lake for the next
few hours. Looking upstream, a few additional showers developing
over far western Lake Superior from a weak passing shortwave. The
RAP and HRRR carry these weakening showers through the UP
overnight, possibly entering western Chip/Mack counties around
daybreak if they hold together. Have kept forecast dry for now,
but something to monitor.
Otherwise some patchy fog overnight with temperatures dropping
through the 50s.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017
...Remaining coolish, some showers on Sunday...
High impact weather potential...few non-svr thunderstorms northern
lower MI Sunday afternoon.
High pressure in eastern KY is extending ridging into the upper MS
valley. This ridge separates a departing low in Quebec, and an
incoming low in western KS. Diurnal heating, combined with the
coolest temps remaining aloft, have contributed to some showers over
eastern upper and far ne lower MI. Though that will wane, a stray
diurnal shower from upstream could drift into the region. Better
chances for rain will play out on Sunday in northern lower MI, as
low pressure advances toward the lower OH Valley.
As mentioned above, ongoing diurnal showers over far eastern upper
and ne lower MI will dissipate quickly this evening. However,
additional diurnal showers are firing upstream in ne WI and western
upper MI. This activity also won`t have an especially long lifetime.
But, with a coolish airmass in place and a warmer Lake MI, these may
have somewhat more success in crossing the lake than one would
otherwise expect. A stray late afternoon thru mid-evening shower may
be needed in parts of nw lower MI. Otherwise, the wx looks largely
quite late tonight into the start of Sunday...though with some
potential for steepish mid-level lapse rates and the return of 850-
700mb warm advection to allow a stray elevated shower in parts of
northern lower.
Better chances for rain arrive Sunday, particularly in the
afternoon. The incoming low is well to our sw and won`t provide a
lot of dynamic support for precip, outside of generally weak warm
advection. However, moist advection will be more prevalent,
especially below 700mb. This should not be enough moisture (or lift)
for widespread cloud cover. So diurnal heating should be sufficient
to develop enough instability for lake breezes to trigger
convection. MlCape values of around 500j/kg aren`t impressive from a
svr standpoint, and in fact getting thunder at all will be a
somewhat marginal proposition. But there is certainly enough local
forcing/moisture/instability for sct showers, and a rumble/two of
thunder. These will be most prevalent in northern lower MI in the
afternoon, and away from the stabilizing influence of Lake MI.
Min temps on the cool side tonight, upper 40s to mid 50s for most.
Max temps most commonly low/mid 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017
...Mostly Dry and Warming...
High impact weather potential...none.
Surface low tracks up the ohio river valley Sunday night and Monday.
Meanwhile, aloft, upper low moves through Ontario, dragging the main
trough through the region late Monday. Small but sharp ridge moves
through Tuesday.
Surface low is quite far south for significant , but models
showing 70+% RH in the 850-700mb layer Sunday night with some weak
energy moving through northern MI until upper trough goes
through. So small chance for lingering showers Sunday night.
Monday, daytime heating and cold pool overhead could kick off some
isolated afternoon showers south until mid level moisture is
stripped away with the upper trough. Otherwise, high moves in
Monday night, clearing out skies and helping temperatures Tuesday
warm to near normal.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017
Extended continues to look fairly quiet into the weekend, with high
pressure overhead most of the time. A weak, elongated boundary could
bring some scattered showers Thursday. Details are a little murky
into the weekend with rain/storm chances. Seeing signs across
guidance for a potential cutoff low to our west. Some are a little
faster with it and could affect the area Saturday, some a bit slower
and affecting the area Sunday. Will see how it develops in the
coming days. Temperatures expected to run near to slightly above
normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 729 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017
VFR. Chance for showers, especially Sunday afternoon.
High pressure in the Ohio Valley contributing to relatively quiet wx
in the region. A small chance that a few showers crossing Lake MI
could make it into the MBL and perhaps TVC areas this evening.
Better chance for rain arrives Sunday, especially in the
afternoon, as low pressure moves east toward the lower Ohio
Valley. The best chance for showers will be inland from Lake MI,
so APN would see the highest chance of seeing rain.
Ongoing w winds will diminish this evening, with winds remaining
light thru Sunday with some directional variation.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 819 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017
Gusty winds have diminished this evening, so have gone ahead and
cancelled the SCA over northern Lake Huron.
Previous discussion follows...
Winds/waves will continue to diminish as low pressure moves away
from western Quebec. We`ll return to a somewhat more typical late
summer pattern, with weaker systems impacting the region. A ridge
of high pressure will edge east from the Upper MS Valley, before a
low advances east toward the Ohio Valley by Sunday night. A light
westerly breeze Sunday will become northerly on Monday.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MK
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MK/JZ
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
808 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 2017
.UPDATE...
Lack of forcing and decent lapse rates has resulted in a quiet
evening across the CWA. There is currently just a lonely little
convective cell near the Bull Mountains, but the rest of the
activity is further south in Wyoming. Thus we have reduced/removed
PoP`s for many locations this evening. Weak cool front will slip
into the northeast zones overnight and may produce some lower
cloud decks and sprinkles or light showers into Sunday morning.
BT
&&
.SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon...
Water vapor imagery shows NW flow over the region, with a couple
features of interest. The first is a weak circulation in northeast
MT which is dropping to the southeast. The second is a stronger
area of PV in south central Alberta.
Energy in northeast MT may help to initiate convection near the
MT/Dakotas border over the next few hours, as the HRRR has been
consistently showing. Surface front has surged eastward into the
western Dakotas, but pressure falls to the west may allow winds
to shift back to the east eventually this evening. This boundary
may be a focus for tstms so will need to keep watch. As it looks
now, any stronger storms look to stay a bit east of our cwa.
Further west, cooler easterly winds and a good amount of stratocu
has resulted in a capped airmass, and very little is going on to
this point. As shortwave approaches from the northwest, some
showers or weak tstms are possible mainly this evening.
Greatest potential for pcpn will remain in our far east Sunday,
east of surface trof, as Alberta shortwave drops thru eastern MT.
Ascent will increase thru tonight and into tomorrow, so potential
exists for some nocturnal wet thunderstorms east of Miles City and
Broadus...again must watch evolution of surface boundary. Have
raised pops a bit in Fallon County tomorrow when the PV passes.
Further west, activity will be weaker and with less coverage.
Temperatures tomorrow will stay well below normal with highs in
the 70s. With enough cloud cover and pcpn, places like Baker and
Ekalaka could actually struggle to get out of the 60s.
Subsidence spreads in from the NW late Sunday and Sunday night as
shortwave departs to the southeast. Sunday night should be the
coolest night of the current cool spell. Weak shortwave ridging
and stable east winds will keep our cwa dry on Monday, with warmer
temps (though still below normal). Could see an isolated storm
over our southwest mountains Monday afternoon and evening.
JKL
.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...
Models are in fairly good agreement for the upcoming week. High
pressure ridging over the Pacific northwest will result in a
northwest flow aloft across our forecast area. This will keep
temperatures much cooler than what the area has experienced for
much of the past couple of weeks with readings looking to be below
normal. Some weak energy gets trapped under the ridge bringing a
slight chance for a shower/thunderstorm basically each
afternoon/evening. The best timing for showers and thunderstorms
looks to be Thursday into Friday when a slightly stronger
disturbance within the northwest flow moves southeast out of
Canada. Temperatures for the most part wil be in the lower 80s
Tuesday through Friday. Hooley
&&
.AVIATION...
Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy through the remainder of
the night. A weak cool front will slip into the KMLS and KBH areas
late resulting in some increase in clouds with a slight chance of local
MVFR developing with a light shower. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail through tonight. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054/076 051/080 054/081 056/083 057/085 060/084 059/088
12/T 10/U 01/B 12/T 12/T 22/T 21/U
LVM 047/076 046/080 048/080 049/083 050/084 051/084 051/085
11/B 00/U 02/T 13/T 23/T 22/T 21/U
HDN 052/078 048/081 052/083 056/084 057/087 059/086 059/089
22/T 10/U 01/B 12/T 12/T 22/T 21/U
MLS 055/075 051/080 056/081 055/082 058/085 059/084 059/087
23/T 10/U 01/U 12/T 12/T 11/U 10/U
4BQ 054/076 049/080 053/082 054/082 056/083 058/084 056/087
13/T 20/U 02/T 22/T 22/T 21/B 10/U
BHK 052/071 046/077 051/079 050/080 054/081 056/083 054/083
35/T 20/U 02/T 11/B 22/T 22/T 20/U
SHR 052/073 046/077 050/078 053/080 053/082 054/084 055/084
13/T 20/U 02/T 23/T 33/T 23/T 31/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
918 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area tonight with shower and
thunderstorms expected this evening. High pressure will build in
on Monday before the next low pressure tracks south of the Gulf
of Maine on Tuesday morning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
9:18 PM...A cold front moving into western Maine will move
across the CWA and exit the state before daybreak. Showers with
embedded thunderstorm will continue to lift north/northeast
tonight, and most of the activity should exit the eastern zones
by 3 AM. Heavy downpours are expected, and Greenville just picked
up 0.45" in the past hour. Severe weather is not expected, and
given the relatively fast movement of the system flash flooding
is also looking like less of a concern too, but will need to
continue to closely monitor over the next few hours as locally
some spots could be impacted by a few storms. Made some minor
tweaks to the ongoing forecast based on the latest observations,
radar, and near term model trends...but nothing significant.
Previous discussion...
Sfc cold front is now in the Hudson Vly and contg it`s trek to
the east. Showers hv mvd into wrn CWA this aftn ahd of s/wv well
out ahd of upr lvl trof still mvg thru NY/PA at this time.
Breaks of sun hv occurred briefly acrs the region this aftn but
SBCAPE is still minimal acrs the state. 0-6km bulk shear still
in place and wl lkly get stronger into the evng hrs with 40-45
kts of shear upstream acrs most of New England at this hr. If
convection can get organized acrs the area this evng, may see an
isold storm produce gusty winds but chcs look pretty slim at
this time. Latest HRRR and NAM nest guidance suggest some bowing
segments may occur acrs the North Woods arnd 00z tonight then
quickly diminish as they run into more stable airmass.
Line of convection to the west has produced a quick shot of hvy rain
tho upstream radars are only estimating 0.50-1.00 inch in an hr. Wl
continue hvy rain wording for early evng as training of any storms
that dvlp wl hv the potential to produce hvy downpours but overall
amnts wl rmn blo FFG.
Expect convection wl slowly diminish aft 03z tonight with loss of
diurnal htg bfr diminishing to just showers aft 06z. Cdfnt fcst to
bisect CWA arnd 09z tonight, exiting CWA shortly aft 12z. Expect
that drier air wl lag slightly bhnd bndry with patchy fog contg
until aft daybreak acrs the region.
Mins wl dip into the 50s acrs the far NW by mrng but rmn in the lwr
60s acrs ern and Downeast zones. Upr lvl trof wl be swinging thru
the state Sun aftn with cldy skies rmng acrs the north along with
the chc for showers. Highs for Sun wl be blo normal for this time of
year with gusty nw winds expected thru the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday night into Monday zonal 500mb flow across the state with
cool westerly flow advecting in dry Canadian air. It will be a
nice crisp Monday morning with high clouds on the increase
through the day as an area of low pressure begins to take shape
across the mid-Atlantic. Still some good spread in guidance on
the exact track of the mid-Atlantic low as it travels across the
Gulf of Maine Monday night into Tuesday morning. The ECMWF and
GEM continue to be on the northern edge of the guidance with the
NAM/GFS further south. Kept categorical pops going for Downeast
as they have a good chance for a soaking rain, but confidence is
still low further inland and how far north the rain shield
spreads. Still a good chance for .50" rain for the coast at this
time, but still enough spread for the low to trend further
south. Drying and clearing expected by Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast confidence is a little below average for Wednesday
through Friday, but overall pattern looks to be cyclonic in
nature with a broad trough to the north of New England over
Quebec province. Frontal boundaries could occasionally impact
the region with afternoon showers, but not enough confidence to
pin-point location and time. Interior Maine will be favored for
shower activity. Overall temperatures will run near to just
above average for this period.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR acrs northern terminals will drop to IFR tonight
in low cigs ahead of frontal bndry. Once cold front moves thru
expect cigs to rise to low MVFR aft daybreak. At BGR and BHB
expect MVFR to drop to IFR after 02z in low clouds and fog.
Cigs will improve to low MVFR after 12z.
SHORT TERM: No impacts to aviation operations expected Sunday
night through the day on Monday. IFR conditions could be
possible for KBHB/KBGR Monday night into Tuesday morning as a
coastal low travels across the Gulf of Maine. Clearing expected
by Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft
advisory levels thru the weekend. Areas of fog will impact
visibility over the waters tonight through Sun morning before a
cold front moves through.
SHORT TERM: Offshore westerly flow on Monday expected, becoming
southerly Monday night as a coastal low approaches the Gulf of
Maine. Low pressure will quickly exit the region by Tuesday
afternoon with offshore flow becoming established once again.
Seas are expected to remain below SCA for this period.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...CB/Farrar
Short Term...Dumont
Long Term...Dumont
Aviation...CB/Farrar/Dumont
Marine...CB/Farrar/Dumont
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
555 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 441 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 2017
Quick update to account for the latest convective trends.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms have evolved from
the South Laramie Range eastward into the Pine Bluffs and Kimball
areas. These showers and storms will continue eastward through the
early evening hours with small hail, gusty winds, and heavy
downpours likely.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 231 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 2017
A few isolated to widely scattered storms developing early this
afternoon along the Snowy and South Laramie Ranges and these
showers and storms will continue to develop and move SE into
northern CO into the early evening. Effective shear values are
currently around 35 kt with SBCAPE around 1000 J/kg. This could
lead to a few stronger storms with hail and gusty winds being the
main threat. Steep low to mid level lapse rates and quite dry sub-
cloud layers will promote good downdraft production so wouldn`t be
surprised to see a few strong outflows even from weaker showers.
The HRRR and NCAR Ensembles have been consistent in showing a
complex of showers and thunderstorms developing to our NW and
tracking SE along the North Platte valley roughly from Torrington
to Scottsbluff tonight. This complex may be aided by some elevated
instability and weak lift along a southward moving front, ahead
of a minor ripple in the NW flow currently over SW MT and NW WY.
Upped POP in these areas tonight to account for consistency in the
hi-res guidance.
Front will hang up along the mountains Saturday as surface winds
become northerly over the plains and eventually back to easterly
by late afternoon. After some morning low clouds and fog along
with any residual showers from the above-mentioned complex, expect
another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop over the
higher terrain and track eastward through the afternoon and
evening. Still enough shear for a strong to severe storm or two
especially with web bulb zero heights a little lower than today.
For Sunday night and Monday, models are consistent in ejecting
some Pacific energy NE from CA into northern CO by Monday
afternoon. Upper diffluence increases especially over the south
with some signal of a coupled jet structure aloft. With PW values
of 1.0 to 1.3 inches, think widespread showers and thunderstorms,
some with heavier rainfall are likely. Upped POP to likely
especially south of line from Laramie to Scottsbluff. GEFS
ensemble mean precipitation for Cheyenne during this period is
around 1.3 inches with decent clustering of at least an inch so
think there is a good chance for the area to receive some much-
needed rainfall.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 2017
Unseasonably cool and unsettled pattern to continue thru at least
the middle part of the week. A nearly stationary frontal boundary
along the front range courtesy of persistent NW flow will combine
with sub-tropical moisture fed by WSW/NNE oriented jet-streak
streaming east off the ern Pacific. The result will be continued
precip chances, best along the WY/CO stateline and adjacent
locations along the I-80 corridor Tuesday and Wednesday. The CWA
will be on the north side of the front in an air mass consisting of
H7 temperatures in the 6-10C range. These cooler temperatures in
combination with thicker cloud-cover will yield high temps that will
only reach the upper 60s (above 5000 feet) and 70s Tuesday and
Wednesday. Jet energy shifts south Thu-Sat, which should yield
gradually drier and warmer conditions. Although even then, the CWA
will not be completely dry, just less coverage than early in the
week and mainly confined to the afternoon/evening period. High
temps look to return to the 80s for most locations by Fri-Sat.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 556 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 2017
Main area of storms this afternoon is situation along and south
of the I-80 corridor. Radar shows some development off the
northern Laramie Range as well, but that activity doesn`t seem to
be holding together well. Expect the southern line of storms to
maintain for a couple more hours, and perhaps redevelop on a
boundary laying west to east across northern Laramie County. Once
this round of storms dissipate after midnight, still think
stratus/fog and light rain/drizzle will likely develop at most
terminals after 09z where moist upslope flow develops in the wake
of thunderstorm outflow. Conditions will slowly improve in the
late morning but another round of showers/thunderstorms looks to
develop near the mountains in the late afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 231 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 2017
Left the Red Flag Warning in place for northern and western Carbon
County as Rawlins is currently hitting criteria. After this
evening, decreasing temperatures and increasing amounts of
moisture should limit fire weather concerns at least through early
next week.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DEL
SHORT TERM...DEL
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...DEL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
607 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017
Much hotter temperatures temporarily returning to SW KS this
afternoon. Expecting all locations to be well in the 90s before
the day is done; already 93 here at the office as of 1230 pm.
Starting around 4 pm, expecting scattered thunderstorms to develop
along a prefrontal trough, mainly south and east of Dodge City.
NAM/HRRR solutions are in good agreement that coverage will favor
the SE zones. Bulk shear and CAPE appear sufficient for some
modest storm organization, including some possible supercells,
mainly SE of a Meade-Larned line. Hail up to 1-1.5 inch in
diameter and thunderstorm outflow winds to near 60 mph can be
expected from the strongest storms. Convection will likely
organize upscale into a loosely organized complex, impacting the
far SE zones (Barber county and vicinity) through about 10 pm.
Cold frontal passage expected tonight, with winds becoming N/NE
across all of SW KS during the late evening. Some gusts of 30-40
mph will occur with the initial frontal passage, although
convective coverage along the frontal boundary itself is expected
to be minimal. Consensus of short term models shows post- frontal
low stratus clouds overspreading all zones through sunrise Sunday.
Continued NE winds and cool advection through Sunday morning are
expected to prevent widespread fog formation, but certainly can`t
rule out some patchy fog with the widespread stratus. Along with
WFO Goodland, included some patchy fog in the grids for Sunday
morning. Lows Sunday morning in the lower to mid 60s.
Sunday...Cloudy (in the morning) and noticeably cooler. Stratus
expected to hold through about 10 am, then erode during the
afternoon. Given the expected afternoon August sunshine, ignored
the cooler MET/NAM guidance, and followed the warmer MAV guidance,
with afternoon temperatures ranging from near 80 NE (Hays) to the
mid 80s along the Oklahoma border. About a full 10 degrees cooler
than Saturday, with NE breezes of 10-20 mph persisting all day.
Stable surface high ridge axis expected to prevent thunderstorms
across all of SW KS on Sunday.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017
Long term forecast will be characterized by much below normal
afternoon temperatures, and virtually daily chances for showers
and thunderstorms. In fact, it is very difficult to find any time
period through next week when there is not at least a chance of
showers/thunderstorms somewhere in SW KS. Synoptic pattern
changes little through all of next week, with broad 500 mb
ridging from southern California to West Texas, and persistent
broad 500 mb troughing from the northern plains through the Great
Lakes. As a result, moderate (40-50kt) W/NW flow at 500 mb, with
embedded, difficult to time, shortwaves will continue through the
week. CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg will be available from time to
time. As such, some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
next week, with all global models hinting at MCS production at
various times and locations. 12z ECMWF generates 1-2 inches of QPF
across all of SW KS through the week, supported with excellent
agreement from 12z GFS. With the active and wet pattern, the heat
will not be allowed to return. Afternoon temperatures Monday
through Wednesday expected to only be in the upper 70s to lower
80s (early August normal is lower 90s).
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017
Based on radar trends and latest HRRR the convection over the
next few hours will stay east/southeast of Dodge City and Liberal
where a prefrontal trough will be located early tonight. Winds
north of this surface boundary will be north northeast at 10 to 15
mph. A surface cold front will drop south early tonight and as it
crosses southwest Kansas some low clouds are expected to begin to
spread into the area from the northwest. NMM,HRRR, and ARW were
all in good agreement with IFR conditions developing behind this
front between 09z and 12z Sunday. These low clouds are expected to
linger through much of the morning with some improving ceilings
developing between 15 and 18z. Last to have VFR conditions will be
the Hays area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 82 62 79 / 20 10 10 20
GCK 64 83 62 76 / 10 10 20 40
EHA 62 83 60 77 / 10 10 40 40
LBL 65 84 64 79 / 20 10 20 20
HYS 64 78 62 76 / 20 10 10 30
P28 68 85 65 83 / 70 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
618 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017
.Discussion...
Issued at 313 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017
Potential dangerous flash flooding will be the main threat in the
next 24 hours as synoptic conditions are setting the area up
potential training thunderstorms along an elevated warm frontal
boundary over our CWA. The Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect
through 7AM tomorrow as this entire area will have the potential to
have flash flooding depending on where the main line of training
thunderstorms sets up overnight.
The LLJ this morning developed a NW-SE oriented line of convection
with moderate stratiform rain as it pushed through providing a nice
soaking rain of around 0.5" for most of the area south of the
Missouri River. This event will be the primer for the next more
significant heavy rain event this evening as soils will be somewhat
saturated over the area. Currently the LLJ has a south to north
orientation over eastern KS helping to develop some elevated storms
along a WNW-ESE oriented 850mb boundary near Topeka. NWP models
have sort of been all over the place with the forecasted QPF totals
in amount and location making it difficult to nail down the final
QPF maximum locations though Sunday morning. Looking at VWP data it
does appear that the RAP, NAM, and NAMnest have all been the most
constant solutions with the RAP matching up with the wind profiles
at 850mp the best. With this said, these three models as well as
the HRRR have indicated the LLJ will ramp up over eastern Kansas
around 7pm CDT creating a strong convergent boundary right over the
KC Metro area and reorienting the 850mb boundary more W-E. This
reorientation is crucial as it places the boundary parallel to the
storm motion which increases the likelihood of training convection
along the northwest of this boundary. PWAT values between 1.8 and 2"
with MUCAPE values between 1000-1500J/kg and plenty of forcing set
up a potentially dangerous situations. This boundary appears to
stay somewhat stationary over the Missouri River area until just
after midnight when it slowly starts to advect to the SSE as the LLJ
shifts more SW-NE oriented. Currently we are forecasting widespread
4" of precipitation over the area south of St. Joseph with pockets
of 5-6" along the training boundary. There could even be localized
areas that see above that if multiple strong storms move over the
same area for a period of time. Outside of the flooding threat
there is also a chance of seeing some elevated supercells with low
Cape but high effective bulk shear after 7pm. The threat is
somewhat low for winds or tornadoes with these storms being elevated
above the boundary layer, but large hail could be possible with
somewhat lower freezing levels around 12kft. The main threat for
severe weather would be along the convergent boundary with the
strongest forcing. Another issue that leads to the flash flood
potential is that the rain storm two weeks ago helped to decrease
our flash flood guidance with most of the area below the Missouri
River only needing 2-3" in 1, 3, or 6 hours to reach the flash flood
criteria. Expect warnings to be issued rather quickly if this
scenario does set up as expected and water could rise fast with
soils already saturated. Traveling through these heavy rain areas
after dark is not recommended as water may be difficult to see on
the roads as it rises overnight. Temperatures may not even make it
into the 70s today with continual cloud coverage and precipitation
inhibiting any type of heating.
The surface low driving this event will slowly move to the east
Sunday morning helping to drive this precip to the SE and out of the
area by Sunday afternoon as ridging and NE flow push back into the
area. This high pressure will dominate the area through Wednesday
with unseasonably low temperatures below 80 degrees through Tuesday.
A weak shortwave pushes through Wednesday creating some chances of
precipitation over the area but overall most should stay dry.
Temperatures stay cool in the lower 80s through Thursday with mostly
nice conditions expected for August.
The next real chance for rain will occur Friday as a strong upper
level shortwave pushes into the area from the central plains
creating another rainy day Friday, although it looks much less of a
flooding event than tonight. Ridging pushes back in quickly
Saturday making for a decent weekend with mostly dry conditions and
high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017
Multiple hazards will affect air traffic throughout most of the
terminals. The first hazard will be persistent thunderstorms that
will continue to develop over the region through the first 6 hours
of the forecast period. Visibility may be decreased in heavy rain
at times to at IFR or below temporarily. These storms will start
to move to the SE away from the terminals in the morning, but will
be a problem off and on throughout that timeframe.
The second hazard will be a low IFR ceiling around 1000ft that
looks to persist for most of the forecast period. There may be
times that it lifts above IFR with TS are around the station but
overall trend will be IFR conditions until Sunday afternoon. If
this changes the forecasts will adjust as needed.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ025-057-060-
103>105.
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
Discussion...Barham
Aviation...Barham
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
913 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017
.UPDATE...
The cluster of thunderstorms that were previously tracking across
portions of Throckmorton and Shackelford Counties continue to
fizzle this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Anticipate
that the lone cell northeast of Abilene will continue to suffer
a similar fate with increasing nocturnal inhibition, but will
leave some very low PoPs near Breckenridge and Cisco for the next
hour or two to account for activity spilling into our CWA.
Otherwise, have removed the mention of precip from the remainder
of the forecast area through 2 AM.
Overnight, we`ll turn our attention to convection which is
ongoing across the Texas Panhandle in association with a mid-level
wave coming out of New Mexico. The 3-km NAM and HRRR both seem to
have a decent handle on current trends, and advertise at least
some potential for the southern periphery of this complex to
back-build towards the Red River late tonight. This seems
plausible given the development of a 30-35 kt low-level jet
sufficient elevated instability to work with. Opted to introduce a
small sliver of 30% PoPs across the immediate Red River Counties
where isentropic ascent will be maximized during this time frame.
Severe weather looks pretty unlikely with this overnight activity,
but some gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall will be possible. The
potential for isolated to scattered convection will persist
Sunday morning, mainly north of I-20.
Carlaw
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 716 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017/
/00Z TAFS/
VFR conditions prevail across North Texas this evening with the
exception of a few isolated thunderstorms to the west of the major
airports. Currently, one severe storm is slowly drifting east out
of Throckmorton county with an additional storm or two to the
south of there. This activity is expected to remain to the west of
the area tonight and will likely diminish in intensity over the
next couple of hours with loss of daytime heating. There is a
little more wind shear today than we normally have on an August
afternoon, so they could persist a little longer than normal but
should still remain to the west of the major airports. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the overnight hours
with southerly winds around 15 kt.
We will see an increase in low level moisture overnight although
the low level flow itself will veer to the southwest. This should
keep any MVFR cigs that develop to the east of the airports
through early Sunday morning. For now, we`ll keep VFR conditions
prevailing, although we`ll have SCT018 sky conds in for the
morning hours.
Later Sunday afternoon, as an area of surface low pressure gets
closer to the Red River, a frontal boundary will move into
southern Oklahoma. This should be a focus for scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening
hours which will likely have an impact on north/west bound
departures/arrivals. Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected
to increase farther south into the Metroplex late Sunday night and
we`ll include a VCTS by 07/04Z. Scattered to numerous showers and
storms are expected to continue areawide into Monday.
Dunn
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 352 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017/
/Rest of today through Sunday Afternoon/
Weak convection continues to slowly develop across the Hill
Country and across the Big Country where the axis of low level
moisture appears to be greatest. In addition, an ill-defined MCV
may be augmenting ascent on its eastern flank as evident by deeper
lightning-producing convection. While there is a good degree of
uncertainty over the next 24 to 48 hour forecast, this feature
and its behavior will likely be a key player in PoP and subsequent
sensible weather elements.
Convection will likely continue this afternoon and into the early
evening hours along and southwest of a St. Jo to Hillsboro to near
Athens line, but activity should generally diminish for most areas
with the loss of daytime heating. The one exception will be across
northwestern and northern zones where activity may be more
dynamically driven by the aformentioned remnant MCV to the west.
Most hi-res guidance is in fair agreement that a bulk of the
nocturnal convection will track eastward through Oklahoma.
However, low level wind fields do increase tonight, which could
support some backbuilding of convective cells down to the south of
the Red River. With that in mind, I`ve maintained and even
increased rain chances during the overnight hours into Sunday
morning. Severe weather during this time period looks unlikely
given the elevated nature of convection. I won`t rule out heavy
rain, some very small hail and perhaps some gusty winds, if
downdrafts can penetrate the slightly stable PBL. Overnight
conditions elsewhere should continue to moderate from previous`
nights with increasing 925mb flow, subsequent low level breeziness
and increased cloud cover.
Late Sunday morning and into Sunday afternoon---several members of
the 00 UTC NCAR ensemble...the ECMWF and the last few frames of
the Operational HRRR all suggest that convection may be possible
for areas near and north of the I-20 corridor. This is somewhat
plausible given that convection to the north may put out an
outflow boundary and additional southerly flow aloft induces
gradual ascent atop this boundary resulting in additional
convection through the morning hours. For now, will paint 40 PoPs
across extreme northern sections of the Red River Valley with 20
PoPs down towards the I-20 corridor. Additional convection may re-
fire tomorrow afternoon along this feature, but it appears most
probable across northern and northeastern zones and I`ve confined
the highest PoPs to this area with lower rain chances farther
south. Storms may approach severe limits during this time as
there should be a fair amount of DCAPE necessary for strong to
perhaps damaging downbursts. Heavy rain will be possible as
convection will generally be slow moving. I won`t rule out a near
severe hail threat as well given that shear values will promote
multicell storm structures.
There will be a potential for some diurnal type convection across
southern and eastern zones, but coverage should be fairly low.
Where clouds and rain don`t hang tough, we should see some breezy
southwesterly winds which should help to keep conditions quite
toasty with highs in the mid to upper 90s to near 100 degrees out
across western and southwestern zones.
24-Bain
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 352 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017/
/Sunday Evening Through Saturday/
Overall, not much has changed for the Sunday evening through
Wednesday part of the forecast. There is a threat for
strong/severe storms Sunday evening and night, and a threat for
heavy rainfall Sunday evening through Tuesday and possibly into
Wednesday. Low rain chances remain in the forecast for the
remainder of the week.
As talked about above, some showers and storms may already be
ongoing by Sunday evening related to outflow and/or mesoscale
boundaries remaining from convection across Oklahoma tonight.
However, we expect another complex of storms to develop along a
slow moving front to our north and northwest during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. Strong and severe storms will
be possible during the evening hours with a main threat for
damaging winds and heavy rainfall. Some hail near 1" may also be
possible. CAPE values in the early evening hours in our northwest
counties could approach 3000 J/kg as temperatures soar into the
upper 90s. Shear values are a little more uncertain, but the GFS
has deep layer shear values near 20 kts which is why the hail
threat cannot be discounted. A combination of ample moisture in
place with PWATs near 2" and a slow movement to the system will
also yield a threat for heavy rainfall and flooding. This complex
of storms will drift south and southeast through the evening and
nighttime hours, likely weakening overnight as the low level winds
decrease in speed and veer to the southwest. Have kept rain
chances high Sunday night, mainly across the northwestern half of
the region.
Widespread rain chances and a threat for heavy rainfall will
continue Monday through Tuesday as we remain in a weak northwest
flow aloft pattern with an upper level ridge to our west. The
models continue to keep the surface front stalled to our north on
Monday, but we anticipate it will sink south with convection. In
addition, other mesoscale boundaries may be present from the
convective complex that could be foci for showers and storms
during the day on Monday. Where these boundaries will be located
on Monday is too difficult to discern this far in advance, and we
will adjust the forecast as needed. Forecast soundings still
indicate a threat for strong storms producing gusty winds will be
possible Monday afternoon, but that threat appears to diminish
some more by Tuesday.
Regarding the heavy rain threat, widespread rainfall totals of
2-4 inches are forecast, with the highest totals along and north
of Interstate 20. However, a notable portion of those totals are
in the Sunday night-Monday time frame associated with the complex
of storms. On Monday and Tuesday, the rainfall will not be
continuous and is expected to occur in rounds, but the showers and
storms will be efficient rainfall producers and slow movers capable
of producing at least localized flooding issues. We continue to
assess the need for a Flood Watch starting as early as Sunday
night, and a Watch may be issued tonight or Sunday morning.
By Wednesday, the rain may become more scattered in nature as the
front starts to lift north and the upper level ridge starts to
build in from the west. Heavy rainfall will still be possible as
PWATS remain high for this time of year, and storm motion will be
slow. For the remainder of the week, reduced PoPs to 20-30
percent, and confined them to mainly the northern and eastern
portions of the CWA as the models are split on how much the upper
level ridge will build across the Southern Plains. There is some
indication that depending on the location of the upper level
ridge, we could be monitoring MCS activity to our northwest each
day. There is also some agreement that another front could bring
more rain chances next weekend.
JLDunn
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 96 75 85 74 / 10 20 70 70 70
Waco 77 98 77 87 74 / 20 10 30 70 70
Paris 74 90 73 83 71 / 20 50 60 60 70
Denton 78 97 75 84 73 / 10 30 80 70 70
McKinney 77 96 75 84 73 / 10 40 70 70 70
Dallas 80 97 77 86 75 / 10 20 70 70 70
Terrell 76 95 76 85 73 / 10 30 50 70 70
Corsicana 76 96 76 86 73 / 10 20 30 70 70
Temple 75 96 75 89 73 / 20 10 20 70 70
Mineral Wells 75 96 74 83 72 / 20 20 80 70 70
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
644 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017
A cool summer pattern was in place across our region in a northwest
flow regime aloft with upper ridging in the Pacific Northwest and an
upper trough along the eastern CONUS. A series of embedded shortwave
troughs were embedded within the flow, one of which brought showers
and thunderstorms to our area overnight into this morning.
Cloud cover today has held temperatures in the 60s and 70s across
south central Nebraska with a few 80s in north central Kansas near
the warm frontal boundary. As we head into the evening and into
tonight, most models suggest our cwa will be on the edge or in
between areas of convection. The main focus for storms is expected
to be to our south along a frontal boundary near I70, then as the
low level strengthens overnight this activity should focus across
northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska given the orientation of the
lowlevel jet axis. Additional development is possible along the high
plains to the northwest in upslope flow while an embedded shortwave
trough translates southeast. This activity is expected to weaken and
diminish as it moves southeast late this afternoon and evening, but
do have small pops in our northwest/west zones as HRRR holds
things together a little farther east than other models. In the
end, while the better chances for rain/storms should focus to our
west and south/east, have maintained small chances into tonight.
Our southern zones in the convective marginal risk area still look
to be the buffer of the main convection forecast to the south.
Sunday could see a lingering sprinkle in the morning and even
potentially drizzle based on the aggressive NAM with it`s abundant
low cloud/low level moisture. Do expect a fair amount of cloud cover
especially for the first half of the day at least, with potential
breaks in clouds as the day goes on. Ultimately temperatures will be
dependent upon how much insolation we see and highs in the 70s look
on target.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017
The pattern through the extended remains cool for August in a
continuation of the northwest flow regime as upper ridging is
maintained across the Pacific Northwest and a series of upper
lows/troughs translate southeast from Canada with the main low
pressure systems centered around the Hudson Bay area. This will
result in a broad trough across much of the central and eastern
CONUS.
Surface ridging builds south across Nebraska Sunday night with a
fair amount of low cloud cover expected to redevelop across Kansas
into portions of Neb. Convection is expected to focus along the high
plains in upslope flow with only minimal chances of this activity
reaching our western zones overnight or early Monday. Hit or miss
chances for showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast off/on
during the worweek with initiation along the high plains with
outside chances that this activity will hold together as it migrates
eastward. Tuesday and Friday look like the next `decent chance` for
showers and thunderstorms with the systems crossing our area.
Temperaturewise, look for readings to remain on the cool side and
below normal for this time of year. Highs will generally be in the
70s and may top 80 at times, but no significant warmup on the
horizon for the next seven days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017
MVFR or lower stratus and possibly some -DZ will work its way in
across the terminals overnight...with generally poor conditions
expected to start the day Sunday. Expect generally light easterly
winds this evening to subside some overnight...increasing to 10-12
KTS out of the northeast by the mid-morning hours tomorrow. While
there may be some showers and possibly even a -TSRA around the
forecast area...the probability of a -SHRA or -TSRA impacting
either terminal was low enough to exclude the mention of even a
VCTS or VCSH at this time.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fay
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Rossi
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
525 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 141 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 2017
Northwest flow remains in place with weak shortwave troughs
rotating through the mean flow. Disorganized forcing will be a
limiting factor in the short range periods, lowering confidence in
shower/thunderstorm coverage through Sunday.
Regarding thunderstorms this afternoon-this evening: A stalled front
along the western edge of our CWA may act as a possible focus for
thunderstorm initiation early, but with a strong CAP in place across
much of our CWA early this afternoon there will be a delay in
possible onset. Better chances will likely be tied to next mid level
impulse (currently organizing over northern Colorado). High
resolution models show thunderstorm activity south from where it has
initiated in north central Colorado, and moving along frontal
zone/CAPE axis in our west by the late afternoon before decreasing
in coverage as it moves east during the evening hours. I can`t rule
out isolated activity ahead of this in proximity of frontal zone
this afternoon/evening, but guidance favors dry conditions until
this activity spreads eastward. Additional elevated showers/isolated
thunderstorms will be possible overnight, with frontogenetical
forcing lingering and weak elevated instability.
Deep shear is expected to remain over the region through the
evening. RAP analysis is already showing up to 3500 J/KG of SB CAPE
and up to 1500 J/KG of DCAPE in our west near this stalled front.
Models show adequate instability across our CWA through the evening,
so severe threat can`t be ruled out further east. if thunderstorms
do develop into this environment there could be an organized severe
threat particularly in our west. The question will just be "if".
Late tonight-Sunday morning: A backdoor cold front is shown to move
over our CWA from central Nebraska late tonight, with increasing
low level moisture. Post-frontal BL winds may remain high enough to
prevent dense fog development despite strong influx of low level
moisture, but fog still can`t be ruled out. Model moisture profiles
are showing a deep enough moist layer to support possible drizzle
development Sunday morning. I added patchy fog and drizzle to the
morning period.
Sunday: A stronger shortwave trough is shown to approach the region
late afternoon from the northwest, but strongest forcing appears to
hold off until the evening. If stratus holds on in the west highs
may not warm out of the lower 70s and afternoon shower/thunderstorm
chances could be greatly diminished. Deep shear will be in place, so
if clearing does occur our western CWA could see enough instabilty
for an afternoon severe threat (mainly our eastern Colorado
counties).
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 141 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 2017
West to northwest flow aloft continues throughout the long term
period with troughing over southeastern Canada into the Great Lakes
and a ridge to the southwest. This pattern results in wet and cool
weather for the area.
On Sunday night, precipitation chances increase from the west as a
stronger shortwave pushes into the region from the Rockies. This
disturbance moves across the High Plains through Monday night,
keeping showers and thunderstorms in the forecast and generating the
best opportunity for precipitation during the long term. The main
concern during the Sunday night to Monday night timeframe will be
heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding as ample moisture filters
into the region and PWATs reach values between 1.0 and 1.5 inches.
Shower and storm chances persist on Tuesday as the aforementioned
shortwave trough progresses. Wednesday and Thursday appear somewhat
drier with periodic slight to low chance PoPs. A disturbance works
its way onto the Plains late in the week, which may be the next
decent opportunity for some precipitation. However, confidence
decreases the further we go into the period due to the uncertainty
caused by this weather pattern.
Temperatures are anticipated to be below normal. Highs are generally
in the 70s Monday and Tuesday before increasing back into the
low/mid 80s by Thursday. Lows range from the mid 50s to low 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 516 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 2017
VFR to IFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Main focus is the
timing of stratus and how low the ceilings will fall overnight. In
the next few hours focus is also on whether KGLD will have any
storms or not. Addressing the more immediate item, the question is
how far east will the storms move before they run into a stable
environment. Am thinking KGLD should be on the eastern limit of
any storm activity so placed a VCTS mention in the TAF. The storm
activity will end by late evening.
Regarding stratus overnight, latest data agrees that conditions
will begin to deteriorate at KMCK not long after 6z. Some of the
data is suggesting a gradual decline from MVFR to IFR ceilings
while other data is suggesting an almost immediate change to IFR.
Would not be surprised if the more immediate drop in conditions is
what ends up happening. Will have a better idea for 6z TAFS as
observations to northeast of KMCK should give a good idea of what
to expect. KGLD should remain MVFR, but cannot rule out IFR
conditions during the latter half of the overnight hours.
Conditions should improve for both sites mid morning as
temperatures warm.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JTL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1048 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front just to our south overnight will return northward
as a warm front Sunday through Monday as low pressure moves from
Texas across the Ohio Valley. The front will become stationary again
across our region through the week, with deep moisture and periods
of heavy rain likely.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1030 PM EDT: Persistent showers and a few thunderstorms
continue to develop late this evening just south of Chester County
in the eastern Upstate along the stalled surface boundary. The
latest HRRR runs bring a few showers northward over the Charlotte
region overnight, but this is contradicted by the surface high
pressure building over to the north of the region overnight and
reinforcing the low level northeasterly flow. This should keep the
boundary, and any associated showers, just south of our area through
early Sunday morning. Temperatures appear on track with cooler than
climo mins expected overnight given the northerly surface winds.
Winds will adjust back toward southerly through late Sunday morning
and this will allow moisture (which is not far away) to start
pushing back northward. Shower chances, with a few thunderstorms,
will slowly increase from the south through late in the day. A blend
of guidance still looks good for max temps, with values just below
climatology Sunday afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 PM Sat: Broad upper troughing will remain in place across
the East through the period, with a slight increase in the height
gradient expected through the first half of the period, as a short
wave moves from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Short term
guidance is in agreement that a series of weak surface waves will
develop along the associated frontal zone across the TN/Ohio valleys
through the period. Associated with this "cyclogenesis," the models
develop anomalously strong SW flow in the lower levels by Sunday
night, pushing a warm front and associated deep moisture into the
forecast area. Model qpf response is fairly decent Sunday night, and
with >1000 muCAPE advertised, we certainly could see some areas of
heavy convective rainfall. Pops will be advertised in the 50-70
range Sunday night, with the highest values favored in the SW
upslope areas of the Blue Ridge.
A brief lull in convective activity is possible through a good chunk
of the day Monday, as the warm front is progged to lift quickly
north of the area. However, convection originating along the frontal
zone to our west will likely encroach on the area later today, while
additional activity should initiate over our area within high
PWAT/moderate unstable air mass during the afternoon. At least
likely pops appear warranted across the entire area, while
categoricals will be advertised along the TN border.
The wavy/slow-moving cold front is finally progged to sag into our
forecast area on Tuesday, warranting another round of likely pops
across most of the forecast area. NE flow becoming established north
of the boundary is expected to result in max temps a solid 10
degrees below climo across northern area Tue afternoon. (Otherwise
min temps will be a little above climo and maxes a little below
climo through the period). By the end of the short term period,
antecedent conditions will probably be deteriorating, at least on a
local basis, after a couple of days of multiple waves of showers and
storms. FFGs are quite high due to the recent dry spell and it`s not
at all clear at this time what (if any) areas will have the highest
chances for hydro issues by mid-week, so we have no plans to include
mention of excessive or heavy rainfall in the Hazardous Wx Outlook
attm.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Saturday: the extended fcst picks up at 00z on
Wednesday with a very broad upper trof centered over Eastern Canada
and a relatively flat pattern over the southeast CONUS. Over the
next couple of days, numerous pulses of weak upper shortwave energy
move over the region as the subtropical ridge slowly builds well
offshore. By the end of the period, a more amplified upper trof
begins to dig down over the northern plains as the upper ridge
amplifies over the Western CONUS. At the sfc, a lingering frontal
bndy is expected to be just to our south with deep lyr moisture
over the fcst area to begin the period. Reinforcing high pressure
behind the front will be centered over the Ohio River Valley/Southern
Great Lakes. That high will move eastward fairly rapidly and is
expected to be offshore by Thursday. This puts us back under a moist,
SLY return flow pattern for the rest of the period. As for the
sensible fcst precip chances will remain elevated thru the period
with high-end chance to low-end likely PoPs each day and broken to
overcast cloud cover thru the period. At this point, the main concern
is still the potential for isolated to widespread flooding. The
latest GEFS standard anomaly PWAT fcsts have values 1 to 2 standard
deviations above normal thru the period. With the ample cloud cover
expected, high temps should remain below climatology with low temps
right around climo.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: The stalled frontal boundary will remain
southeast of the terminal forecast area through the overnight hours.
Some slightly reinforcing northeasterly flow will develop overnight
before winds toggle around to the southeast and then southwest
through the day on Sunday, and the boundary returns north as a warm
front. Moisture will also return over the warm front through Sunday,
but with mainly just developing VFR ceilings throughout. Scattered
late day showers should arrive from the south, but nothing more than
PROB30 is needed after 21Z at the SC TAF sites for now.
Outlook: The boundary will continue its northward trek Sunday night
through Monday. Moisture will steadily return over the region.
Unsettled conditions will then set up through most of the week as
the boundary remains nearby, moisture pools overhead, and a series
of upper level waves pass by. Restrictions will be possible with any
showers and thunderstorms. Fog and low clouds may develop each
morning around daybreak, mainly in the mtn valleys but also in areas
that receive heavy rainfall the day before.
Confidence Table...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAVL High 100% High 95% High 100% High 100%
KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...HG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1001 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions are expected tonight as high pressure slides off
to the east. Precipitation chances will then be on the increase
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as a low pressure system
moves east across the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
With the setting of the sun, cumulus clouds have dissipated this
evening. What`s left is a plethora of high clouds, poised to
move across the Ohio Valley during the overnight hours. Given
coverage and dense nature of the high clouds, have boosted sky
cover upward, favoring a mostly cloudy overnight. HRRR even
suggests a few sprinkles or a shower possibly across the
southwest CWA late tonight, but think this is overdone and have
left forecast dry.
Clouds will likely impede fog formation overnight, so only have
patchy fog near river valleys in southern Ohio. For
temperatures, favored upper 50s across the north to lower 60s
near the Ohio River/northern Kentucky.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Short wave energy will move out of the mid Mississippi Valley on
Sunday and across the upper Ohio Valley through Sunday night.
Ahead of this, the low level flow will back around to the
southwest through the day on Sunday allowing for some developing
isentropic lift. The airmass will start out fairly dry but as
we gradually moisten up through the day, this will lead to an
increasing chance of showers from west to east across the area,
primarily through the afternoon hours. Will range highs from
the lower 70s northeast to the upper 70s across the southeast
for Sunday.
An associated surface low will lift east northeast across the
region Sunday night. The models continue to vary on their timing
and placement of this low, with the ECMWF father north than the
GFS/NAM solutions and there is also quite a bit of spread with
the various ensemble solutions. Nonetheless, expect increasing
pops as we head into Sunday night as a low level jet pivots up
into our area ahead of the low. Will trend toward the model
blend with the highest pops across our north. Instability will
remain pretty meager but this may be enhanced somewhat with the
increasing dynamics moving in so will allow for some embedded
thunder Sunday night. It does look like there could be a swath
of heavier rain along and to the north of the low track as PWs
push up in excess of 1.5 inches but it is difficult to pin down
exactly where that will be at this point.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Potent low pressure carried by a westerly flow aloft will be
moving across Ohio on Monday. Widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms are expected. Relatively high atmospheric moisture
content coupled with a deep warm cloud layer may result in
heavy downpours. Overall flood potential may be mitigated by
progressive nature of the system. Rain chances diminish by
Monday afternoon as the low tracks rather quickly east toward
the Atlantic Coast.
After an upper trough axis moves east early Tuesday, a confluent
zonal flow aloft producing an elongated area of surface high
pressure will result in dry weather Tuesday through Wednesday. The
chance for showers and thunderstorms is forecast to return Thursday
and Friday in the increasingly humid circulation around the
departing high. Saturday may see more organized thunderstorm
activity as forcing and moisture coalesce ahead of the next area of
low pressure.
In a pattern featuring below normal geopotential heights, periods of
clouds, precip and cold advection, temperatures are expected to be
below normal to start, reaching the upper 70s Monday and Tuesday. A
modest rebound to the near normal lower 80s is anticipated for
Wednesday through Saturday under increasing insolation and slight
warm advection.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Still have a few cu lurking around early this evening, which
should dissipate within the next couple of hours, but infrared
satellite imagery indicates plenty of high clouds set to stream
across the Ohio Valley tonight. Presence of high clouds will
limit fog formation overnight, but certainly can`t rule out a
brief MVFR visibility reduction at fog-prone KLUK late tonight.
Westerly flow aloft will continue to transport cirrus across the
area on Sunday. Much of Sunday should be dry, but by early
evening would expect some rain (and eventually lower cloud
bases, although initially still VFR) to begin encroaching on
KDAY/KCVG.
OUTLOOK...Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible
Sunday night and Monday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...BPP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
801 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017
.UPDATE...Showers have been decreasing in coverage this
evening...except for recent increase over southeast Marion
Co and Flagler Co. HRRR appears quite overdone in activity over
the next few hours. Will keep low POPs going a few more hours
far southern counties and along coast...with chance POP for next
hour se Marion and srn Flagler counties. Low temp forecast looks
good...generally lwr-mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions next 24 hrs. Shower/t-storm
chances tomorrow low enough to keep out of TAF.
&&
.MARINE...No significant changes in next CWF issuance.
A ridge of high pressure will remain just south of the waters
this weekend before moving over the waters early next week. Winds
tonight will be light southerly direction. Winds Sunday will be
mostly south in the morning then become southeast in the afternoon
and evening at 10 to 15 knots. Early next week winds will be
south to southeast 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Scattered
mainly late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
Rip Currents: A persisting long period groundswell warrants a
Moderate Risk at the northeast Florida beaches through Sunday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 72 91 73 92 / 10 40 30 30
SSI 76 87 77 88 / 20 20 20 20
JAX 74 90 75 92 / 10 20 20 30
SGJ 75 87 77 89 / 10 20 10 30
GNV 73 90 74 92 / 10 20 10 30
OCF 74 91 75 92 / 10 20 10 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Wolf/Zibura/Elsenheimer
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
803 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017
.AVIATION...TAF sites remain dry and VFR overnight with SE winds
3-7kts. East coast seabreeze kicks in for ATLC sites after 14Z
with SE winds 11-14kts. Moisture looks higher tomorrow, so there
will be a potential for SHRA/TSRA with seabreeze development. For
now, trends suggest this would be just inland of sites so will
keep mention out of TAFs. For KAPF, Gulf breeze kicks in around
17Z with WSW winds 10-12kts. Similar to today, TS developing just
inland of KAPF, potentially moving back overhead during afternoon
hours.
&&
.UPDATE...
Isolated showers and storms that had developed earlier over the
far western interior, along the Gulf sea breeze boundary, are now
starting to dwindle. This trend will continue through late this
evening with the loss of diurnal heating. Light southeast winds
will persist along the east coast metro region with light and
variable winds elsewhere. With a a warm atmosphere still in
place, many minimum temperatures along the east coast metro will
only drop to the low 80s, tying or breaking a few high minimum
temperatures records.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017/
DISCUSSION...Latest IR imagery is nearly a mirror image to 24-
hours ago, with a line of convection extending from the northern
Gulf to the Carolinas and patchy fair weather cu over southern
Florida. A 594 dm upper level high pressure cell continues to sit
stagnant over the CWA, responsible for the subsidence and very
warm weather. A few moderate showers have developed north of
Naples in Collier County, where the Gulf sea breeze has been
allowed to advance and collide with southeast flow. Short term
models, including the latest runs of the HRRR and Hi- Res WRF,
erupt additional activity over portions of northern Collier,
Glades, and Hendry counties through early this evening. This
activity is progged to diminish by nightfall. Heat index values
have reached the 100s and are pushing criteria for some spots, but
not widespread enough to consider an advisory. None the less, a
very toasty afternoon for South Florida. Tonight, record or near
record high minimum temperatures will be in jeopardy, especially
along the east coast metro region. The enlongated upper level
ridge of high pressure will remain between South Florida and
Bermuda tomorrow, as a surface high pressure cell sits below.
Thus, expect another round of persistent brisk southeast winds.
Also of note, GFS time height cross sections indicate increasing
moisture from the surface to around 15,000 ft agl, reintroducing a
slightly higher shower and thunderstorm chance to the region.
Early to mid next week: A similar synoptic pattern will lead to
persistent southeast flow with weak waves of increased moisture
through the period. Maximum temperatures will range from average
to slightly above average for this time of year. Long range models
show a Topical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) reaching the area
from the east during the Wednesday night/Thursday timeframe. If
this scenario plays out, expect increased instability along with
deeper atmospheric moisture. This would lead to a higher chance
of showers and storms by late in the week.
MARINE...Generally good boating conditions will prevail across
the local waters into early next week under a moderate east to
southeast flow of 10 to 15 knots. Winds over the offshore Atlantic
waters may occasionally reach 20 knots Sunday night, mariners can
expect some choppy waters. Seas will be 3 feet or less over the
next several days, except up to 4 feet at times in the Gulf
Stream, along with isolated to scattered showers and storms,
especially during the nighttime hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 81 92 82 92 / 10 40 30 40
Fort Lauderdale 83 92 82 91 / 10 30 30 30
Miami 82 93 81 91 / 10 30 30 30
Naples 77 95 77 93 / 20 30 20 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
UPDATE...27/JT
AVIATION...88/ALM
Updated for 00Z aviation forecast discussion.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017
Current MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) moving through mature
phase at this time over the southern half of Missouri. There is
some evidence of upper level saturation in the GOES-16 lower to
upper level water vapor into northern sections of southeast MO and
Southern IL. This may be more fruitful for overnight convective
activity though, given the weaker shear aloft.
Utilized significant weighting of the NAM-WRF family of short term
guidance, especially the 4km NMM/ARW versions, as well as the CAM
producing HRRR guidance to reflect the decay of the MCS into
southeast MO/southwest IL this evening as the current low amplitude
shortwave (embedded in the broad cyclonic flow) de-amplifies with
time. Another wave is expected to move in later tonight and
reinvigorate the lapse rates to generate more precipitation over the
same area, before slowly moving east on Sunday and Sunday night.
Was previously concerned with heavy rain potential over a larger
area on Sunday earlier in the week, but the focus of any excessive
rain will be marginalized into smaller pockets of heavier
convection, mainly where low/upper level thermal/pressure field
gradients are coincident in space, especially over southern Illinois
and southeast Missouri.
As the frontal boundary moves through the area on midday Sunday,
phased in with a progressive and channeled vorticity wave aloft, the
greatest surface reflection (surface low pressure development) will
occur over southern sections of the WFO PAH forecast area. SPC has
this area under marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for Sunday
(Day 2). Limited organized convection will occur, supporting better
updrafts for hail/wind production into the evening hours, especially
over west Kentucky.
Although there is still a faster west-northwest upper level flow at
mid-levels into Monday, deeper layer moisture is lacking. The flow
during the day becomes more zonal, retarding the overall movement of
the convective activity away from the southern border of west
Kentucky until Monday afternoon and evening. This may provide a
secondary maximum of accumulated precipitation for the weekend/early
week system across west Kentucky.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017
At the start of the extended period, a drier airmass and high
surface pressure will be in place over the Midwest, with
northeasterly winds prevailing across the PAH forecast area.
Meanwhile, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary will lurk just to the
south.
Depending on the model solution, our region may be dry, or rather
wet, through mid week as an inverted sfc trof develops across our
region. There should be some associated moisture convergence/lift
with this feature. Model consensus suggests that we will have
scattered showers and tstms, mainly in the afternoons/evenings,
primarily over western KY and adjacent parts of southeastern
MO/southwestern IN.
The unsettled pattern will continue into the weekend, with broad
cyclonic mid level flow continuing. Difficult-to time impulses in
the flow will be responsible for on-and-off shower and tstm
activity. This activity should pick up as the flow aloft becomes
more cyclonic in response to a digging shortwave over the western
Great Lakes. In addition, low level winds should gain a more
southerly component.
Expect near seasonable temps during the extended period, with slowly
climbing dewpoints through the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017
Mid/high clouds will continue to increase from the west today and
we will be seeing a gradual increase in the chance for rain. This
initial MCS has eroded quite rapidly as it approached the
terminals late this afternoon. The main time for widespread
activity will be after 06Z-09Z and most of the day Sunday, there
will be scattered showers and storms around. Ceilings/cigs should
be VFR for the most part aside from a heavy shower or storm.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1010 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017
.UPDATE...
Remove pops for rest of tonight and beef up pops I-30 09-18Z
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Radar has dropped off all of the diurnal activity for the evening
and we have wiped pops from the previous issuance for the
overnight hours for most of us. We have a intro of pops for Mc
Curtain county 09-12Z and have increased to likely there 12-18z
and much of area N of I-30. New WPC QPF has been loaded through
the day tomorrow. The HRRR has been persistant on arrival right
around 11-12z and has slowed at tiny bit. The new Nam is a tad
slower, but remains consistent with it`s 18z run. Wish we had the
new GFS its 12Z was well in across Mc Curtain 12 hours ago. /24/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 639 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017/
AVIATION...
VCTS conditions possible across MLU/LFK through 06/02Z. VFR
conditions to prevail through much of the night with MVFR ceilings
possible across area terminals around daybreak. A decaying
convective complex to possible bring VCTS conditions across
TXK/ELD around 06/16Z. Otherwise, south winds around 5 knots
tonight to increase to around 10 to 15 knots on Sunday. Strongest
winds will mainly be across TYR/GGG with gusts to around 20 knots.
/05/
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017/
DISCUSSION...
Weak frontal boundary nearly stalled just south of I-40. Lower to
mid 70 dewpoints to prevail across area south of this boundary.
Convection across southern portions of area has remained very
isold and very weak, and will likely not even hold together until
sundown given current trends. Will leave in isold convection south
of I-20 thru early eve only. By late tonight, outflow convection
will likely generate over eastern OK and western AR and edge swd,
possibly reaching portions of cwa north of I-30 by late tonight.
Progressive development swd with 30 to 40 kt mainly zonal flow
aloft and low lvl winds 15 to 20 kts, will begin to increase pops
swd by Sunday night. These winds may translate to sfc, so that
Sunday may be the only day we consistently see southerly wind
speeds in excess of 10 mph. Upper ridging remains to the west,
but still captures west TX, into central TX, will help maintain
frontal position. A stg shortwave Mon night into Tue will interact
with the still near stnry frontal boundary and may bring heavier
rainfall totals, mainly to northern cwa. Pcpn water values around
2.25 inch and with some training possible, a few locations may see
locally heavy rainfall. Aftn temps in the mid to upper 80s may
also be seen across mainly northern portions of area as well due
to the rain and clouds. By mid week the front completely washes
out, but residual moisture to continue isold to sct convection
across area./07/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 75 93 77 88 / 10 40 40 60
MLU 73 91 76 89 / 20 40 30 60
DEQ 72 88 73 84 / 10 60 60 70
TXK 74 91 75 86 / 10 50 60 70
ELD 73 91 75 87 / 10 50 40 60
TYR 76 92 77 87 / 10 40 40 60
GGG 75 92 77 88 / 10 40 40 60
LFK 75 93 78 88 / 20 30 30 60
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
24/07/05
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
830 PM PDT Sat Aug 5 2017
.SYNOPSIS...A decreasing trend in thunderstorm coverage is still
expected through next week with dry conditions returning by mid week
in most areas. Storms remain possible from Las Vegas north to
the southern Great Basin on Sunday and then limited to the far
northern reaches of the forecast area on Monday and Tuesday. Normal
temperatures will return under mostly clear skies Tuesday and
beyond.
&&
.UPDATE...Convection continued to die off this evening over southern
Inyo County and in and around the Spring Mountains. The latest HRRR
keeps any new development north and east of these areas. I updated
to remove mention of thunderstorms for the rest of tonight in those
areas. Convection in Lincoln County had been weakening considerably
for a bit but appeared to be pulsing back up at this time. HRRR
continues to spread activity south through Lincoln and central Nye
Counties into northeast Clark and northern Mohave Counties.
Therefore I left thunderstorms in the forecast there. -Harrison-
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
201 PM PDT Sat Aug 5 2017
.DISCUSSION...
It has been a rather slow start for thunderstorm development today.
Storm activity through 1 PM has been limited to central and northern
Mohave County and the Sierra and White Mountains. Except for the far
northern reaches of the forecast area, 1-1.5 inch PWATS point to
plenty of available moisture around the region. Thus far, the
thermodynamic profile suggests a down day for San Bernardino County,
the southern portions of Inyo County and the southwestern portion of
Mohave County. SPC mesoanalysis shows weak to moderate instability
in the Sierra, northern Inyo and the southern Great Basin, with
the most unstable conditions over southern Lincoln, Clark and the
northern half of Mohave County. Strong capping aloft has limited
development to this point but with mostly clear skies and plenty of
sunshine to heat the surface, this is expected to erode by mid
afternoon.
Later this afternoon into the evening hours, a decent early August
jet of 50-60 kts noses into the northwest forecast area, providing
support for enhanced storm development in that region and across the
southern Great Basin. The airmass in this region is somewhat drier
and the risk for strong, potentially damaging winds is enhanced.
Expect less shower/thunderstorm coverage heading into Sunday and
Monday. Weak to moderate instability is forecast on Sunday over
Inyo, Esmeralda, Nye, Clark and Lincoln counties...shifting
northward on Monday as the airmass stabilizes over southern Inyo,
southern Nye and Clark counties and a weak disturbance aloft keeps
chances going in northern Inyo, Esmeralda, central Nye and northern
Lincoln counties. Other than a storm or two brushing northern
Lincoln County mid-late in the week, conditions should be dry and
stable.
Temperatures remain below normal Sunday and Monday but then warm to
near or slightly above normal Tuesday-Saturday.
.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday
Precipitation chances become more limited by the second half of
the weekend as drier air works into the area. In addition, by
Sunday night that vort max finally lifts away from the area and
weakens. The previously mentioned trough on the West Coast does
push toward the area sunday night and Monday, so kept in some
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Instability will be
limited and PWATs will be decreasing however, so precipitation
should be isolated to scattered at best, mainly over the higher
terrain.
By Tuesday, better ridging and much drier air arrive, and we
should go dry everywhere. Think this dry and warm pattern should
continue through the rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...For McCarran...Thunderstorms later this afternoon are
expected to be confined to the mountains, with an outside chance of
erratic shifting winds at the terminal due to outflow. Otherwise,
expect fairly typical diurnal winds, with light easterly winds
shifting to southerly in the afternoon and southwesterly in the
evening. Drier and hotter weather can be expected for much of the
upcoming week.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Storms are expected roughly north of a line from
Pearsonville to Las Vegas to Wikieup. The main threats will be heavy
rain with mountain obscuration and erratic gusty winds. There is
some potential for strong winds across the southern Great Basin
later this afternoon into the evening. A gradual drying trend is
expected to continue into the upcoming week, with thunderstorm
chances being pushed a bit farther north.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A gradual drying trend will continue through next
week. A chance for thunderstorms through this evening over the
southern Great Basin, with heavy rain, strong winds and lightning
possible. Storm activity will begin to favor the higher terrain
beyond Sunday. Even drier conditions are expected to push in next
week, with only isolated thunderstorms expected across the southern
Great Basin and higher elevations of Mohave County. Temperatures
will be warming to near normal by Monday and continuing through the
period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures. This afternoon`s primary focus area for thunderstorms
will include the Spring Mountains, the Sierra, Inyo County and the
southern Great Basin where wind damage and/or flooding reports may
be needed. The focus area shifts to Lincoln County and northern
Mohave County this evening.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Salmen
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