Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/01/17

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
639 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 633 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 No major changes planned to the forecast as a front and some associated convection continues to march south and southeast toward the ABR cwa. The most likely area to see some showers and thunderstorms over the next few hours will be across north central SD. Activity is expected to fizzle out by late evening. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 313 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Starting to see convection fire up along the cold front as it advances southward across ND and into extreme northwest SD. The operational HRRR is doing a great job handling the development this afternoon. It had nailed the initial updrafts/convection across far northwest SD, then showed about an hour later what is currently ongoing in southwest ND. Will therefore follow the HRRR pretty closely in regards to additional development/movement of activity over the next several hours. HRRR is showing additional development over northeast ND in the next hour or so where there is currently a cumulus field building. Then, there should be some degree of filling in along the cold front as it moves south. Just how much of it fills in is the question. Have adjusted POPs a bit to match current thinking, but may go back shortly and make further adjustments towards the HRRR/CONSShort POPs. Moderate instability exists ahead of the front, with an area of steeper lapse rates out ahead as well. Shear is the main hindrance though. All that said, expect to see a few strong to perhaps severe storms along this front as it drops south, perhaps affecting north central SD in the next few hours. Otherwise, this activity is expected to wane as the sun sets and we see the loss of daytime heating. For Tuesday, front continues to slowly advance southward, with additional shower and thunderstorm activity possible - mainly for southern areas in the CWA. Have a feeling some of the low end POPs Tuesday morning may be overdone a bit, with many locations staying dry. May have to wait for the afternoon hours to see any more scattered development of storms. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Monday) Issued at 313 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Models are gaining consistency and consensus with the potent shortwave expected to track southeast across the northern plains on Wednesday. Still some difference in the surface features/mesoscale details between models, but more and more they are indicating the potential for a somewhat widespread precipitation event across the CWA. Can`t rule out a few stronger storms, but severe potential is low at this time due to lack of instability. High temperatures on Wednesday may only rise to the mid 70s to low 80s, and that may even be on the warm side if cloud cover moves in quickly Wednesday afternoon. Still plenty of shear, both 0-6km and 0-1km, so will have to see how the system progresses. Cool air will then spread in the region behind the Wednesday system. High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will likely be 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Should see a very gradual warm up and temperatures should be nearing seasonal values by the weekend. The next best shot at precipitation looks to be associated with another shortwave in the Saturday time frame, but details on that system are unclear at this point. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 633 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Some showers and thunderstorms may impact KMBG this evening as a front marches southeast out of ND. Storms should fizzle out by 6z. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Wise SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...Serr AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
945 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 941 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Made a couple changes to the forecast for the rest of tonight. Short term/hires models are in pretty good agreement showing little in the way of any precipitation, pulled PoPs across the north/northeastern portions of the CWA. There`s also some hint at the potential for some light fog across the west and southern portions, so did insert a patchy mention for around sunrise. Otherwise only minor tweaks were made. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 There have been persistent showers in north central Kansas through the afternoon. Otherwise, the showers have ended in central Nebraska and there are some breaks in the clouds this afternoon. Most of the models continue to bring some showers and thunderstorms into the northeast part of the forecast area this afternoon, but the HRRR has pushed it back until later this evening. Have kept some low PoPs in the north/northeast part of the forecast area, and have kept them later into the night. The next upper level wave moves into the area on Tuesday and there will be some small chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the Nebraska portion of the area. Temperatures will be similar to today. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 The weak flow continues Tuesday night and there is a chance for some showers and thunderstorms, across the Nebraska portion of the area. By Wednesday an upper level low is developing in the northern Plains and a cold front is developing across the Dakotas. This system will affect the area mainly Wednesday night into Thursday. This will be the best chance for showers and thunderstorms and a few of them could be strong to severe. After the upper low moves to the east, there will be northwest flow across the area for the remainder of the period. There will be cooler temperatures Thursday into Friday as a surface high builds into the area and there should be dry conditions. The northwest flow will have a few waves that move through Saturday through Monday and there are some on and off chances for thunderstorms. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday) Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 VFR conditions are currently in the forecast for this TAF period. Similar to the past few nights, there is a small chance for scattered precipitation around the area, but with confidence in any timing/location being so low, kept any mention out. Winds tonight will be light/variable, some models/guidance suggest the potential for some light fog around in the early morning hours, so do have a 6sm mention. Will see how upcoming models evolve before inserting anything lower. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...ADP SHORT TERM...JCB LONG TERM...JCB AVIATION...ADP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
855 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 .DISCUSSION... The seabreeze moved inland of the I-10 corridor earlier this evening. There have been a few isolated showers between 20 and 60 nm of Galveston through the first part of the evening. The Texas Tech and HRRR both support at least isolated showers moving within 20 nm of the coast west of Freeport and tweaked the rain chances a bit to account for this. Otherwise, the forecast is on track. 40 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017/ AVIATION.../00Z TAF/ Visible satellite and radar show sea breeze working inland but not sure how far it will reach. Quite possible that winds at KHOU/KIAH could turn more to the E or SE with its passing instead of NE. Winds should decouple tonight and be calm for most terminals. Oddly enough for the start of August, dewpoints may be low enough that fog should not develop except for maybe CXO and that is a small chance. Moisture should return tomorrow into Wednesday. There might be a few showers tomorrow afternoon but think best convective probabilities will be Wednesday through the end of the week. Next chances for more widespread MVFR conditions will be for the end of the week with any TSRA. Overpeck PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017/ DISCUSSION... Save for a few isolated showers across the offshore waters, most of the region is dry (and feels noticeably cooler with 3 PM CDT heat index values in the low to mid 90s) behind yesterday`s slow moving front as drier air has settled into the region. This drier air will be gradually replaced by returning Gulf moisture tonight through Tuesday night as light offshore winds gradually become onshore. As a result, isolated to scattered showers will remain possible across the coastal waters tonight and Tuesday. Rain chances for Southeast Texas Tuesday will be largely dependent on how quickly this moisture pushes back inland, with coastal counties having the main chances for rain Tuesday afternoon and evening (20-40 PoPs... and even then 30-40s may be generous with questions about the aforementioned moisture return given weak low level flow). Otherwise, expect overnight lows in the 70s to low 80s to warm into the upper 80s to mid 90s by Tuesday afternoon. Afternoon water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough dropping across South Dakota/Nebraska. This feature will continue to swing into the Southern Plains on Tuesday, reaching Southeast Texas on Wednesday and allowing northwest flow aloft to become established. Coastal convergence will result in another round of coastal showers and possibly a thunderstorm Tuesday night with diurnal destabilization, lift from the shortwave, and ample Gulf moisture (forecast precipitable water values 1.8-2 inches), allowing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to spread inland on Wednesday. Given the amount of moisture present, cannot rule out brief heavy rainfall but forecast storm motions around 20 MPH and widespread rainfall deficits observed this month (areas west and south of the Houston metro experiencing deficits roughly 1 to 3 inches below normal for July) should mitigate against any flooding concerns outside of urbanized areas. The remainder of the long term portion of the forecast will follow a fairly similar pattern, with overnight marine convection shifting inland with daytime heating. Enhanced coverage will be possible as disturbances embedded in the flow aloft translate across the region and, given the difficulty timing or pinpointing these smaller waves this far out, have continued to advertise scattered showers and thunderstorms (30-50 PoPs) through the end of the week. With precipitable water values hovering near 2 inches, cannot rule out brief heavy rainfall with stronger convection. Another cold front looks to approach Texas this weekend as a shortwave trough dives across the Great Lakes from Canada, but with as quickly east as the wave moves have little confidence that the front will push too far south into Texas. This would keep deeper moisture in place across the region and allow for scattered rain chances to continue through the upcoming weekend. Cloud cover and rain should help keep temperatures near to slightly below normal through the long term portion of the forecast, with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s and lows in the mid 70s to low 80s. Huffman MARINE... Light to moderate NE winds are will begin veering through tonight, become easterly by tomorrow, and continue on towards becoming light and southeasterly by Wednesday. The second half of the week will feature a number of weak upper disturbances that will stretch chances for showers and thunderstorms across multiple days. This may culminate in another summer cold front at the very end of the week. At this time, the expectation for such a front would be only to veer winds towards southwesterly for a time, but a deeper push by the front could result in a more significant wind change. Luchs && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 74 95 75 91 74 / 0 10 20 40 30 Houston (IAH) 76 93 77 89 76 / 0 20 20 60 40 Galveston (GLS) 81 88 80 87 80 / 20 40 30 50 50 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ Discussion...40 Aviation/Marine...39
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1109 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1058 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2017 Some high clouds are moving across the region which should not limit radiational cooling little. Following warmer temperatures and higher dewpoints this afternoon, low should be a couple of degrees milder than this morning. The ongoing forecast had this handled well, and hourly grids have been freshened up based on recent observations. UPDATE Issued at 803 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2017 Hourly grids have been freshened up based on recent observations and satellite imagery. High pressure remains in control over the region and no substantial changes were needed at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 410 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2017 19z sfc analysis shows high pressure in place over the Ohio Valley. This has provided another quiet and fairly normal mid- summer day, though temperatures are up along with a return of moisture. Skies were mostly sunny through the day with some light build up in cu during the afternoon and a layer of thin high clouds drifting over the region. Readings are running in the low to mid 80s most places with dewpoints varying from the mid 50s, where some drier air had mixed down, to the stickier mid 60s elsewhere. Meanwhile winds were light - generally out of the east northeast. Not far away, though, a few showers did manage to show up on our, recently returned to service, radar over western West Virginia. The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict a pattern change of sorts as a cluster of energy with a shortwave slips southeast into the area tonight lowering heights. A relative weakness in the height field will then hang around over the Ohio Valley through Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. A fair amount of energy will pass through during this time but none of it very consolidated. Given the model agreement will favor a blended solution, though the small scale features warrants particular attention to the higher resolution NAM12 and HRRR for details. Sensible weather will feature another similar night, but a bit milder with mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions and some late night patchy fog in the river valleys. For Tuesday, have included some small PoPs for afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances over the higher terrain in the southeast with the diurnal heating of the day and no real triggers to key in on. Tuesday night will be similar to the last few with lower clouds fading out in the evening and temperatures a notch warmer, but still some river valley fog around towards dawn. Again used the CONSShort as a starting point for all the grids through Wednesday morning with some point and terrain based adjustments to temps tonight and Tuesday night. Also kept PoPs to a minimum through the period, except for Tuesday afternoon in the far southeast, in line with guidance. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 359 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2017 Longwave troughing will be the main story throughout the extended portion of the forecast, encompassing much of the eastern conus, including the Ohio Valley. A couple of secondary shortwaves will travel through this longwave trough, the first one passing through the state to start the period Wednesday. The second will develop into a closed low as it makes its way SE into the Dakotas and Minnesota during the day Thursday. This closed low will then shift into the Upper Great Lakes region during the day Friday, deepening heights further across Kentucky, before lifting back northward into Canada and losing strength into the weekend. Longwave troughing will still remain intact to finish out the period, with another possible shortwave affecting the region during the day Monday. Models are not in as good agreement about this feature this late in the forecast however. As for sensible weather, surface high pressure across much of the region will remain intact for the day Wednesday. However it will be far enough east of the region that light return SW flow will begin to set in, and allow a bit warmer/moist air to advect into the region. Temperatures are expected to make it into the mid 80s for highs by the afternoon with slightly increasing humidity from the day before. With the shortwave moving through in the upper levels, this added moisture could interact to produce mainly afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms. Instability should wane as we head into the overnight, so dropped thunder chances generally after 6Z at night. Much of the same is expected for Thursday as well, with isolated to scattered convection expected in the afternoon, highs in the 80s, and more humid air continuing to advect in. The main player on Thursday however will be a surface low pressure system and associated frontal features that will begin to shift towards the region from the NW during the day. This surface low will continue to push NE in conjunction with the upper level flow, as it continues to strengthen. The connected cold front will then sweep eastward, traversing KY from west to east, starting in the west Thursday night and exiting east of the sate Friday night. Expect showers and thunderstorms to be on the increase throughout the day Friday as the frontal system nears, and deep warm/moist flow is in place. Instability as well as wind speed shear and Pwats all look good during the day Friday, so can`t rule out some scattered strong to severe storms during the afternoon. Will continue to get a better handle on the event over the next couple of days. Once the front passes through, winds will shift to a more NW direction and allow drier air to take hold. This will cut off best convective potential, though a few lingering storms will still be possible into the overnight along the frontal lines. Lingering rain may persist into Saturday, mainly in the high terrain where upslope flow will have some influence, in addition to the frontal boundary getting held up a bit over the high terrain to our east. Otherwise, Saturday and Sunday look to be quite pleasant, with another cool and dry airmass taking hold from the north, much like this previous weekend. Highs will be in the upper 70s on Saturday, and in the low 80s on Sunday, with lower humidity values. The unresolved possible shortwave on Monday could lead to another round of scattered activity during the day to finish out the forecast period, with temps in the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 807 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2017 With high pressure still remaining the primary player for our weather through the TAF period, mainly VFR conditions are expected. Some patchy dense fog is again expected in the river valleys which should dissipate by 13Z to 14Z, but TAF sites should not be affected. Otherwise high and perhaps a few mid clouds will pass by from time to time with diurnally driven cumulus field from 16Z. Winds will be light through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...JP
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
627 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 313 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 H5 analysis from this morning had an elongated area of high pressure extending from west Texas into southern Oregon. A low amplitude ridge extended north of Oregon into swrn Canada, however this ridge had flattened significantly from the 12z analysis from Sunday. Across the central and northern plains, a tandem of shortwaves were noted, one over swrn Kansas and a second over sern South Dakota. These two disturbances had led to clouds and rain over Kansas, as well as portions of eastern Nebraska earlier this morning. Clouds remained across Kansas and eastern Nebraska this afternoon with mainly clear skies in western Nebraska. At the surface, low pressure was located over central South Dakota with a surface trough of low pressure extending south, roughly along a line from east of Ainsworth, to just west of Broken Bow, to southeast of North Platte. Temperatures as of 2 PM CDT ranged from 81 at O`Neill to 89 at Valentine. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 313 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Tonight and Tuesday...Over the next 24 hours, precipitation chances will be the main forecast concerns. For late this afternoon into tonight: Upstream of the two shortwaves mentioned in the Synopsis, H5 hts are forecast to rise 10 to 30 meters this afternoon. No surprise, the latest NAM12 solution is indicating some convective inhibition extending from the northeastern Nebraska panhandle north into western and north central South Dakota. further south and east, little or no cap exists which would favor convective development by mid afternoon. However, SB CAPES are much lower this afternoon compared to Sunday afternoon`s. Shear this afternoon is weaker as well, especially where the convective initiation is favored over north central Nebraska. That being said, will leave in a mention of isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon across north central Nebraska. The threat for thunderstorms will gradually shift south and east into the early evening hours before ending overnight in the east thanks to limited shear and no low level jet. On Tuesday, a weak upper level disturbance will track across western South Dakota, approaching northwestern Nebraska Tuesday afternoon. By mid afternoon Tuesday, the cap will weaken leading to thunderstorm development over northern Nebraska. Wind shear continues to be marginal Tuesday with sfc to 6km shear of 10 to 15 KTS, so any severe threat will be limited to heavy rain and the threat for gusty winds. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 313 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Convection will drift south Tuesday evening an is expected to dissipate by late evening, due to weak shear and the absence of a low level jet. Shifting to Wednesday, a stronger upper level wave, will force a cold front through the forecast area Wednesday night. This will lead to the best chances for organized precipitation across the forecast area during the forecast period. Convection will develop INVOF the front which is progged to be focused along the SD/NE border by 00z Thursday. This activity will track along with the front`s southward progress Weds evening, and will persist into the overnight hours thanks to a nice 30 KT low level jet, nosing into swrn Nebraska. Thursday through Monday...Behind the exiting cold front Thursday, much cooler temperatures are expected, as highs will struggle to reach the middle 70s. Cool and dry conditions will carry over into Friday with highs once again in the 70s. Thunderstorm chances will begin to increase Friday night as a warm front pushes east of the panhandle. At the same time, an upper level disturbance will ride south from western South Dakota into northern Nebraska. Thunderstorm chances will linger into Sunday as the frontal boundary will move little through the weekend. Drier conditions will set in for Monday as a strong disturbance forces the front well south of the area by Monday morning. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 The SREF, NAM and RAP models indicate patchy fog toward morning. Dry air is moving in aloft and this should promote the necessary radiation condition for the fog. Otherwise VFR is expected. Isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening should dissipate by 03z. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Buttler SHORT TERM...Buttler LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
624 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Rain chances and temperatures will provide the primary forecast challenges in the short term. The large scale pattern features a 500 mb anticyclone that is centered over the OR/NV/ID border area, with another high over west TX. A fairly impressive shortwave trough was tracking across western Ontario Canada. Our area was in weak northwest flow, with a weak closed low dropping southeast across northern IA according to recent water vapor satellite imagery. A trough extends back to the southwest from that low into NE. Forcing for precipitation will generally be weak tonight, but based on some of the convection allowing models, will have to have at least some slight chance POPs for tonight for parts of the area. Recent runs of the experimental HRRR that chances will be best in our west and northern counties until after midnight, then chances spread from north to south overnight. Again, activity if any looks to be fairly isolated. Look for lows tonight fairly close to MOS guidance, around 60 to 65. Locations that have clear skies the longest should be the coolest. On Tuesday, a weak front should push down across the Dakotas and MN. Some showers and storms appear possible along that front, into parts of northeast NE by mid to late afternoon. Airmass ahead of that front should warm a bit, and have highs on Tuesday a few degrees warmer than today. Activity that develops would like track/develop southeast through the evening and overnight. Timing of a push of cooler air Wednesday and Wednesday night and possible storms with that is somewhat in question. Will have POPs into northeast NE Wednesday afternoon, but chance look better for most of the forecast area for Wednesday night. Large scale forcing will be stronger to our north/northeast as a mid level trough digs over MN and WI, but we should see some scattered precipitation. Current model timing suggests that Thursday will be mainly dry (after a few showers possible in the morning for southeast NE and southwest IA) and on the cool side as a ridge of high pressure at the surface builds over the northern part of the Plains. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Mid level ridge will be over the far western US by Thursday night, with a closed low near the MN/WI border and modest northwest flow over our area. The ridge in the west should weaken, while a broader trough from Hudson Bay back southwest toward the central part of the Plains by Saturday/Sunday. This will continue to bring in a cooler than normal airmass into our area. Chances for precipitation should be highest from late Friday night into Saturday night. It seems that a cooler than normal pattern may continue into the 8 to 14 day period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 619 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 VFR conditions through the period with sct-bkn mid clouds fl050-100. There is a 20% chance that thunderstorms could develop near KOFK Tuesday...however the probability is too low to include TAF at this time. Some patchy fog may try to develop Tuesday morning. Not sure if it will occur at the TAF will leave mention out at this time. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Miller LONG TERM...Miller AVIATION...Zapotocny
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
644 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 .DISCUSSION... 00Z TAFs. && .AVIATION... We will see some areas of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, especially in the west. There will likely be areas of MVFR ceilings overnight and Tuesday morning as well. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017/ DISCUSSION... Yesterday`s upswing in convection across the High Plains resulted in a few MCVs drifting eastward today. This has complicated the surface flow pattern. Furthermore, several days of convective overturning has resulted in poor mid-level lapse rates across the area. These convective-scale modifications have resulted in a challenging forecast with regards to coverage and timing of convection through the night. Subtle ascent on 305-310k potential temperature surfaces that were very moist resulted in some showers this morning in northwest and north-central Oklahoma. These moved east and maintained throughout the day bringing up to a hundredth of an inch at many locations in northern Oklahoma. Latest radar mosaic shows a notable absence of surface based convection. The only thunderstorms that have developed as a result of diurnal destabilization have been over the eastern Texas Panhandle. These are slowly moving eastward and may begin to impact west-central Oklahoma by late afternoon. Modified RAP soundings from northwest Oklahoma down toward western north Texas all yield very weak MLCAPE <1,000 J/kg with skinny CAPE profiles suggestion robust convection is unlikely. Typically in these environments with nearly moist adiabatic lapse rates at best, and pockets of subsidence and depleted low-level moisture from convective overturning, we would be quick to scale back precipitation probabilities significantly. In this case, mid- level height falls from transient shortwave trough may provide enough forcing for some convection tonight. Attendant steepening of mid-level lapse rates is subtle and still results in meager instability at best, so widespread significant convection isn`t expected. Thus, we have lowered probabilities some tonight. Until aforementioned mid-upper wave departs tomorrow and deep moisture is pushed southward, convection remains a possibility. The greatest concentration tomorrow should be across roughly the southern half of the area. Lingering showers are possible near the Red River Wednesday. Another wave in mean northwesterly flow will force a cold front south bringing cooler weather Thursday night into Friday, possibly preceded by sufficient forcing for some convection late Thursday. Rain chances were trended up Sunday into Monday based on a trend toward medium range guidance showing a little stronger flow aloft as the pattern deamplifies some. BRB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 69 82 67 87 / 30 40 10 10 Hobart OK 70 81 67 88 / 50 50 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 71 81 69 88 / 30 50 30 20 Gage OK 65 82 63 87 / 40 40 10 10 Ponca City OK 68 86 67 89 / 30 30 10 10 Durant OK 69 83 68 86 / 20 30 20 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 99/99/01
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
927 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Ohio Valley will drift south to the Carolinas by Thursday. Meanwhile, a weak front should edge down into northern sections of Pennsylvania and New Jersey Tuesday night and slowly dissipate by late Thursday. The remains of Emily over Florida are destined for a passage well to the east of the Carolinas during mid week. A cold front will approach our area from the west on Friday and move through the mid Atlantic states on Saturday. High pressure will build in Sunday, probably followed by an approaching warm front from the southwest next Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... A cold front is dropping down across New York state and the northeastern U.S. It will slowly track south and east through tomorrow night, making it no farther south than the northern portions of our cwa. Temperatures tonight will be warmer than last night and closer to normal. Temperatures will bottom out mainly in the 60s except around 70 in Philly. The southern Poconos, northwest New Jersey along with the eastern shore of Maryland have seen a quick drop off in temperatures this evening. Lows for the overnight were lowered a couple of degrees in those locations. Some light patchy ground fog can not be ruled out but the coverage at this time looks limited and not in the forecast attm. Only the HRRR has soundings which would indicate a fog potential in a couple of spots with the highest chances in southern New Jersey. Winds will be light and variable through the overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... In general, high temps tomorrow are forecast to be several degrees above today`s highs. Most will still see the 80s, but some lower 90s across the urban I95 corridor can also be expected. With a bit more moisture and instability tomorrow, a small chance of showers and thunderstorms exist across the northern and western zones. SPC has us in general thunderstorms. Winds will be on the lighter tomorrow as well, but range from the south to southwest. Impacts...outside of some limiting visibilities around daybreak in some fog, we are not expecting additional impacts. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 500MB: Weak west southwest flow will prevail this week, then a -2SD trough will develop in the Great Lakes region Friday, lifting north into Canada this weekend, leaving a ridge of southwest flow aloft, off the east coast into early next week. Temperatures: Calendar day averages Wednesday-Saturday should range between 3 and 7 degrees above normal on a daily basis cooling a bit below normal on Sunday and possibly Monday. Forecast basis: a 50 50 blend of the 12z/31 GFS/NAM MAVMET MOS was applied Tuesday night-Wednesday night, then the 12z/31 GFS MEX MOS for Thursday, and finally the 15z/31 WPC gridded elements of 12 hr max/min T, 12 hr POPS, 6 hrly td, sky, wind were all applied almost as presented. The dailies... Tuesday night...a weak trough-cool front probably slips southward to near I-80 during the late evening and may serve as a focus for scattered convection which dies during the night. Patchy fog possible late, if and where it may have rained. PWAT 1.25". 600J MLC avbl. Wednesday...That trough still seems to sit near I-80 and again serves as a focus for scattered heavy afternoon convection north of I-78...and especially I-80 north with hailers and heavy rainers possible (both GFS/NAM have fairly robust TT). Modest HOT PHL ~90/65. PWAT 1.5" 1600J MLC avbl esp se PA. GFS has a better chc than on Tuesday but further se near I-95. Am favoring the NAM soln. Wednesday night...the trough may slip south at night along with its dying convection. Higher BL RH and so patchy fog more likely late at night near and north of I-78. Thursday...the trough has eventually dissipated and light flow from the south resumes everywhere by the end of the day. Almost as HOT PHL ~90/67. Some of the model guidance is quite robust for convection Thursday. 1600J MLC. Confidence on the probability of rain forecast for Thursday is below average. Friday...hints of drying out and so the convection chance generally seem to diminish. Still very warm and humid and still about 1400J MLC. Southerly flow. Saturday...CFP, possibly early in the day, so smaller chances of rain and much less chance of thunder. Confidence on rain occurrence and any thunder after 12z is below avg. Sunday...Should be a nice day...cooler and less humid. The front could stall just to our south but for now we save the frontal rains for Monday. Monday...Warm air advection and lots of uncertainty regarding when the next warm front approaches. Could be a pretty wet warm front but timing uncertainty prevails at this early stage of the forecast. For now...a conservative forecast. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...Mainly VFR. Winds will be light, less than 10 kts. They`ll start off from the southwest and become more west toward dawn. The afternoon cumulus will dissipate. Some patchy fog is possible around sunrise with the highest chance at KMIV. However, not in TAFS attm because of limited coverage. Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Winds will remain light, less than 10 kts. They`ll remain from the southwest. The seabreeze should work west of KACY. There should be more cumulus around tomorrow afternoon and some showers north and west of the I95 airports. Best chances, which are small, would be for KABE and KRDG. Can`t rule out thunder. OUTLOOK... Tuesday night...VFR conditions expected except small chance of a shower vcnty KRDG and KABE as well as possible patchy FOG and asstd vsby reduction early Wednesday morning. Light wind. Wednesday through Friday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected. South to southwest sustained winds around 10 knots or less, around 10 to 15 knots at KACY on Thursday and Friday. A chance for afternoon/evening showers or thunderstorms each day with brief sub- VFR conditions possible, mainly from KPHL and points north and west. Most favored TAF sites for afternoon or evening thunderstorms seems to be vcnty KABE/KRDG. Also there may be some early morning IFR fog restrictions vcnty KABE and KRDG both Thursday and Friday mornings. Saturday...VFR with possible sub VFR conditions in showers...especially the morning. Gusty westerly winds to 20 kt during the afternoon. && .MARINE... Winds and seas will stay below SCA conditions tonight and Tuesday. A few gusts around 15 kt are possible tomorrow afternoon across the northern NJ Atlantic coastal waters. OUTLOOK... Tuesday night through Friday morning...Sub-small craft advisory conditions are expected to continue through this period Friday afternoon...SCA winds are possible NNJ waters later in the day. Saturday...Small craft advisory westerly wind gusts may develop during the afternoon. Rip Currents... The dominate ocean period could relax a bit tomorrow and potentially yield a low risk. If this doesn`t come to fruition, another day of moderate risk can be anticipated on Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... July average temps: PHL will average 79.3 (normal 78.1) or 1.2 degrees above normal ABE will average 75.6 (normal 73.4) or 2.2 degrees above normal. The rest of the area will have averaged generally 1 to 2 degrees above normal except GED about 3 above, and slightly below normal at Mt Pocono, slightly above normal at ACY Marina, July rainfall: ACY rainfall 10.02 6th wettest on record (Pomona). 55N rainfall 6.42 14th wettest on record (Marina) ABE rainfall 8.21 8th wettest on record RDG rainfall 8.45 5th wettest on record but missing years in the database for a less certain ranking withing the period of record. ILG rainfall 6.75 19th wettest on record && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Drag Near Term...Gaines/Kruzdlo Short Term...Kruzdlo Long Term...Drag Aviation...Drag/Gaines/Kruzdlo Marine...Drag/Kruzdlo Climate...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
258 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Intensifying high pressure will bring hot to record-breaking temperatures to northeast California and western Nevada this week. Isolated thunderstorms are possible each afternoon through Wednesday, mainly south of Highway 50. As high pressure shifts east late this week, more moisture is forecast to surge northward with increasing thunderstorm coverage. && .SHORT TERM... Other than to narrow down thunderstorm timing through Wednesday and add smoke and haze to some areas through Tuesday afternoon, few changes were made to the short term forecast. The forecast areas for smoke and haze is a rough estimate and depends much on the intensity of northeast California fires and whether a light northwest flow develops in the evening out into western Nevada. Cumulus development this afternoon has been mostly shallow so far. The 12Z/18Z NAM simulations show evening convection remaining mostly west of the Sierra crest with easterly flow aloft; however, the HRRR supports the possibility for a few cells near and west of Highway 395 in Mono County. With these discrepancies in mind, the forecast for isolated cells in Mono County, and perhaps north of Portola in northeast California, remains intact. Over the next couple days, the heat really builds as a ridge of high pressure centers itself over the northern portions of California and Nevada. This will send high temperatures into the upper 90s to mid 100s for valleys below 5500 feet, with mid 80s to mid 90s in the Sierra below about 7500 feet. As far as lows, they will remain mostly in the 60s for lower valleys; however, for the urbanized (without much vegetation) areas of Reno-Sparks lows may not dip below 70 degrees after tonight. Temperatures will eventually be moderated by increasing cloud cover later in the week. At this time, temperature moderation from clouds is not expected until Thursday when moisture begins to increase in earnest from the south. -Snyder .LONG TERM...Friday through Monday... A broad and weak upper low will be lifting north across the eastern Pacific Fri-Sat which will allow for increasing southeast flow and moisture into the Sierra and western NV. GFS simulations show PWATs reaching up to around an inch (at the higher end of climatology for early August) over the weekend. Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and a potential for localized flash flooding will develop with modest flow aloft and the higher end PWATs. Temperatures will be a bit more seasonal in this pattern with low- mid 80s for Sierra valleys and 90s for lower elevation valleys. Early next week, the coverage of showers and thunderstorms could decrease some as the upper low moves away and ridging rebuilds. However, signs are pointing to at least some convective possibility continuing as moisture/instability fails to scour out completely. Snyder/Hohmann && .AVIATION... Any afternoon and evening thunderstorms through Tuesday will remain isolated with the best chance along the eastern Sierra south of Markleeville/KMAR. Wind gusts 30-40 kts will be the main impact. Otherwise, hot afternoon temperatures through Wednesday will result in high density altitudes which may affect some airport operations. Snyder/Hohmann && .FIRE WEATHER... Very hot and dry this week as a strong ridge of high pressure brings the hottest week of the year to the region. We could see as many as 4 days of 100+ degree heat with dry conditions keeping recoveries in the poor to moderate range on the mid-slopes and ridges the next few nights. Exceptional heat and surge of moisture will bring a substantial increase in thunderstorm activity for the second half of the week. Weak isolated storms today are expected mainly in the Mono/Mineral/S. Lyon county area with a few storms possible in Lassen and Washoe. Small cells are expected with these storms so lightning strikes outside of storm cores will be a definite possibility. Tuesday and Wednesday should see a bit of a lull in the storm coverage with storms most likely right along the highest terrain of the Sierra crest in Mono and Alpine counties. Thursday into Friday a surge of moisture from the south will bring an increase in thunderstorm coverage. These are going to be the days to watch for the potential of drier storms along the edge of the incoming moisture surge, mostly for areas north of I-80. For Thursday, there isn`t much storm motion, but by Friday southwest flow aloft will keep storms moving, increasing the threat for lightning strikes outside of storm cores. At this time there is not enough coverage, and forecast confidence that storms will be sufficiently `dry`, to issue fire weather products, however, this will be an area that could be considered an elevated threat for new fires. Temperatures will moderate (closer to normal) for the end of the week, but thunderstorm activity may continue through the weekend and into next week. -Zach && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 11 PM PDT Thursday NVZ001-003>005. CA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 11 PM PDT Thursday CAZ070-071. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
821 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure covered from the Upper Mississippi Valley to Virginia this afternoon. This high will cover much of the eastern United States through Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday low pressure will track from the Upper Mississippi Valley across southeast Canada, which will push a cold front through the Mid Atlantic region Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 820 PM EDT Monday... Due to persistence of showers across the Greenbrier and New River Valley areas, have increased pops for the next couple of hours, then taper to below 15% around 03Z, then to 0% by 12Z. Would expect similar situation tomorrow, except a little further southeast, say from Rockbridge County to Roanoke County to Watauga County. Have increased pops a tad for Tuesday afternoon in these areas to reflect this thinking. Also, adjusted T/Td readings, mainly T readings, in accordance with current temperatures and trends of cooler nights the past couple of days. On average tonight should be about 3 degrees warmer than last night. As of 305 PM EDT Monday... A weak mid level disturbance coming across the Ohio Valley this afternoon is provided additional lift in a low level convergence zone to generate a few showers across SE West Virginia this afternoon. Along with modest CAPE values and steepening lapse rates, storm are growing to a height around 25.0 kft. Not expecting storms to go severe with the -20C level around 22.0 kft. Impulse drops to the southeast overnight as the flow aloft flattens under high pressure overhead. Soundings suggest some residual mid deck around especially west early on where could still have a shower or two around during the evening. Appears a little more subsidence to return behind the passing wave late when should return to mainly clear skies with some fog in mountain river valleys. However lows likely to be a bit milder with dewpoints creeping up, which should promote more in the way of 60s, except for 50s in the valleys and outlying areas. Moistening of the atmosphere will continue Tuesday as a broad upper level trough drifts east of the Mississippi Valley through the day. More cumulus clouds expected across the mountains during the afternoon as compared to this afternoon. Adding in diurnal heating in a weak capped environment, isolated mountain showers are possible south of hwy 460 with slightly more coverage of scattered showers north. Weak steering flow will have these showers tracking northeastward and should not advance east of the Blue Ridge. Temperatures Tuesday afternoon will moderate back to seasonal levels with lower 80s west of the Blue Ridge to upper 80s east. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 215 PM EDT Monday... Jet streak crossing through the Tennessee Valley along with upper diffluence may prolong isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms into Tuesday evening. Will be a few degrees warmer each day for high temperatures. Even more of a rise in surface dew points, especially on Wednesday with the surface and low level winds coming around to the southwest. Models not in great agreement on the location of where the highest probability of precipitation is on Wednesday or Thursday, but southwest winds favor along the southern Appalachians. Will have the highest probability of precipitation along the Blue Ridge south of Roanoke. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 125 PM EDT Monday... Models continued to forecast an amplifying upper trof over the eastern half of the country. Thursday night a short wave will be tracking through the base of the trough, then a stronger short wave deepens the trof over the Great Lakes on Friday and Saturday. On Monday there will still be troughing in the east but the upper flow over the Mid Atlantic region flattens. Not much change in the timing of the surface cold front on the long range guidance. Expecting that boundary to cross the Mid Atlantic States on Saturday. Most of the precipitation ahead of the front on Friday will be from daytime heating. Low level convergence and upper support on Saturday should result in more areal coverage of precipitation throughout the day. A wave of surface low pressure along the front on Sunday will hold deeper moisture and the probability of precipitation over North Carolina and southern Virginia on Sunday. Temperatures ahead of the front will be slightly above normal and behind the front slightly below normal. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 750 PM EDT Monday... A weak mid-level disturbance tracking southeast from a broader upper trough to our northwest combined with weak surface wind/moisture convergence across the Alleghanys has resulted in isolated to scattered showers developing across the Alleghanys this afternoon/evening, then pushing southward with the north- northwest upper flow. The activity is low topped, so no lightning has been observed. Showers thriving on differential heating and diurnal heating and area already showing signs of dissipating. HRRR agrees that most if not all of this activity will be gone by 03Z. Attendant ceilings and visibilities are still mainly VFR. This disturbance will weaken and continue to move southeast into Tuesday. However, an area of weak surface/moisture convergence will continue to also drift southeast. Would once again expect isolated to scattered showers Tue afternoon, but perhaps a little further south and east than what was observed today. Some models suggest that activity Tue could be a tad more widespread and of greater intensity, but still looking at mostly showers, not thunderstorms, with minimal instability indicated yet Tuesday as well as no deep moisture present. So, ceilings will be primarily VFR at the TAF sites through the valid period. Non-vfr ceilings will be limited to late night/early morning fog at KLWB and possibly also at KBCB. The late day rain at both sites suggest greater potential for fog development. A period of IFR-LIFR is possible at both sites in the 09Z-13Z time frame. For other locations, fog is generally not expected. With weak high pressure remaining to our northwest, a preponderance of easterly flow can be expected during the day time at speeds of 4-6kts. Otherwise, winds will be light and variable with many locations calm at night. Medium to high confidence in ceilings through the TAF valid period. Medium to high confidence in visibilities through the TAF valid period. Medium to high confidence in wind direction and speed through the TAF valid period. Extended Aviation Discussion... Mostly VFR conditions are expected to continue Wednesday as a large area of high pressure lingers across the eastern OH Valley through the period, gradually weakening. Some late night/early morning fog will be possible in the mountain and river valleys. Next chance of reduced visibilities in isolated convection may occur by Thursday afternoon over the mountains. A cold front will move into the area late Friday into Saturday with a more extended period of associated sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities in showers and thunderstorms. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCS NEAR TERM...RAB/RCS SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...RAB/RCS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1007 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 .DISCUSSION... A quiet night areawide expected with many sites already calm. Skies are variable and while some changes to sky grids were made, the overall formatting for the 12 hour period is generally the same as our previous zone issuance and as such no update is needed here, but we have updated our two matrices products. The HRRR keeps QPF at bay to our West for the greater part of the night. Showers will be near by at daybreak with the coming NW flow energy over the top of the ridge and around the trough entering the Midwest U.S. /24/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 659 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017/ AVIATION... VFR conditions will continue through the 01/00Z TAF period. The cu field in place over the region late this afternoon should eventually diminish by 02-03Z, although additional sct cu redevelopment is possible after 06Z over N LA/extreme Ern TX and spreading N into Srn AR by/after 12Z. Cu cigs should again develop by 16-17Z over much of the region, with additional elevated convective debris spreading SE into the region by late morning/through the afternoon from areas of -SHRA that develop over Cntrl and Ern OK. Sct -SHRA may develop/affect portions of NE TX and SW AR along/N of I-30 after 15Z, but confidence is too low to mention in the TYR/GGG/TXK terminals attm. Additional isolated convection may also develop after 18Z over portions of N LA, mainly S of the I-20 corridor (including SHV and MLU). Will re- evaluate the potential for convection Tuesday afternoon/evening for the 06Z TAF package as sct convection looks to develop and spread SE across NE TX/SW AR by the end of the TAF period. Light ENE winds tonight will remain either Lt/Vrb or light ESE after 15Z Tuesday. /15/ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017/ DISCUSSION... Quiet and dry weather will persist through tonight and for much of Tuesday for most of the area before a prolonged period of unsettled weather takes hold. A shortwave trough moving over the Midwest has provided enough vertical ascent for the development of scattered showers over much of Eastern Kansas and into portions of Oklahoma. In the Texas Panhandle, a mesoscale convective vortex has helped scattered convection persist throughout the day. Northwesterly flow aloft will help to steer some this activity towards the area, mainly locations along and north of Interstate 30. Most of this convection is expected to weaken with eastward extent as it encounters more stable air. However, a few isolated showers may linger or redevelop during peak heating Tuesday afternoon, so will maintain slight chance to chance PoPs. The weak upper trough will drift southward during the day Tuesday into Southern Arkansas before turning east towards the Southeast CONUS. This trough should provide enough support for scattered convection across much of the area Wednesday and Thursday. The highest rain chances will be across portions of East Texas on Wednesday but will shift east along with the trough into Southern Arkansas and Northern Louisiana on Thursday. A retrograding upper ridge over the Four Corners Region and a longwave trough over the eastern half of North America will strengthen the northwest flow aloft over the region. Another, but stronger, shortwave trough will develop across the Upper Mississippi River Valley on Thursday and will help to push a cold front into the area. This front should provide a better focus for convective development as the it moves through on Friday. Severe weather potential appears low at this time as instability will be rather meager. The flow aloft will become slightly more zonal during the weekend, but the parade of shortwave troughs across the region will persist. Medium range models suggest the Friday cold front will become quasi-stationary between Interstates 10 and 20 before moving back north as a warm front late in the weekend and into early next week. Combined with the continued series of shortwave troughs, this will keep a decent chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of the area nearly every day from Saturday through next Tuesday. This is certainly a much wetter and more unsettled pattern than is typical for this time of year for our region. The added benefit to the increased rain chances and associated cloud cover will be that daytime temperatures will generally hold steady near or slightly below normal. Depending on how much rain falls, some increased humidity is likely, but the cooler temperatures should keep heat index values below 100 degrees F for at least the next seven days. CN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 75 91 73 85 / 0 10 20 40 MLU 71 91 72 86 / 0 10 10 30 DEQ 70 85 68 86 / 10 20 20 30 TXK 71 87 70 84 / 0 20 20 40 ELD 71 89 70 85 / 0 10 20 30 TYR 73 90 71 84 / 0 20 30 60 GGG 73 91 71 84 / 0 20 20 60 LFK 72 92 74 87 / 0 10 20 40 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 24/15/09
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1051 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1034 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Skies have been clearing out faster than progged and have adjusted sky grids and added the potential for patchy to areas of fog in locations that received rainfall earlier today. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 313 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 19Z water vapor imagery shows an upper shortwave moving south along the mid MO river valley while a broad area of high pressure remained centered over the TX big bend region. At the surface, an expansive high pressure system was centered over the upper Midwest with a ridge axis stretching back west through northeast KS. For tonight, the models have been struggling to show the light rain very well even though they show some weak vorticity advection from western KS. Eventually the shortwave to the north of the area should propagate across the forecast area overnight. So with some signal for forcing through the evening and since the HRRR has been the only solution with a reasonable handle on the precip, think continued light rain across east central KS through the evening as depicted by the HRRR makes some sense. There does not appear to be much in the way of instability within this airmass so the expectation is for the rain to remain light with only a couple hundredths of an inch in accumulation. With the precip, skies are expected to remain mostly cloudy though a good portion of the night. Think this may help keep temps a degree or two warmer and have lows forecast to be in the lower and middle 60s. The upper shortwave is progged to be exiting the area by Tuesday morning. As a result, models think there should be general subsidence across the area through the day. Because of this have a dry forecast going for the daytime hours. Although a little better surface based instability is expected to develop. So it may not be out of the question for a shower to pop up. A lack of surface feature to focus low level convergence makes the predictability pretty low. The surface ridge axis is forecast to continue to influence the region keeping winds light with no real temp advection to speak of. So think highs will be driven mainly by insolation. Think that there may be partly sunny skies through the day with models keeping some mid level saturation over the region. So have not gone quite as warm as the guidance and have highs forecast to be in the middle 80s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 313 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Mid week through the weekend, the upper pattern will exhibit the general western ridge and eastern trough pattern with mainly northwest flow through the central CONUS. This will provide a few opportunities for some needed rainfall over northeastern KS. However, speed of the systems and overall moisture quality probably won`t allow for much in the way of significant amounts of measurable precip. There isn`t a significant chance of rain or storms making their way into the area on Tuesday night, but if an overnight complex from the high plains can maintain itself there could be some showers make their way into western and northern counties around the KS/NE border area. The better chance comes into the Wednesday night and Thursday morning time frame when a stronger H5 trough with associated vort max works into the Northern Plains and Upper MS Valley region helping to push a cold front into the area late afternoon into the overnight period Wednesday. Currently, NAM, GFS and ECMWF are largely in agreement on timing and strength of the front into the area. Perhaps the GFS and NAM are just a touch faster moving the boundary through than the EC. Overall, storms develop some type of mixed mode in central Nebraska where instability and shear set up is better along the front. By the time storms make a run into northeastern Kansas, there may be some wind threat that could be maintained due to steep low level lapse rates with higher dewpoint depressions in place. But, a prolonged threat of hazardous winds doesn`t seem to last too long as storms will likely move into a much less favorable environment with little instability, weak shear and overall poor mid level lapse rates for any nocturnal storms to be sustained very long. Post frontal showers could linger until the upper trough passes into the day on Thursday. Latter part of the weekend could see another shot as some showers and storms as a stronger upper shortwave digs into the area helping storms developing over the high plains of Northern into the Central Rockies maintain support as they propagate into the Central Plains. Temps overall during the period remain cooler in the low 80s due to northwest flow in place with lower dewpoints also as return flow doesn`t have as much opportunity to develop. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Light showers will push out of central and east central Kansas this evening with otherwise VFR conditions and light winds tonight into tomorrow. There may be some isolated showers and storms tomorrow afternoon, but confidence was not high enough to mention in any specific TAF. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Skow SHORT TERM...Wolters LONG TERM...Drake AVIATION...Skow