Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/31/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
930 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017
No change for tonight other than to blend to observed trends
through 02 UTC. A mild overnight is expected with lows in the 60s
in a warm and moist airmass ahead of low pressure across eastern
Montana into Saskatchewan.
UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017
Little change with this update other than for observed trends
through 23 UTC. Very isolated convection in a moderate instability
but low shear environment are possible across far southwest and
central North Dakota through sunset. Severe weather is not
expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017
For the short term, a shortwave ridge appears to be suppressing
convection across the southern Prairie Provinces of canada and
most of western North Dakota. However the cap is slowly eroding
across the region and expect at least widely scattered
thunderstorms to form. The HRRR suggests 20Z (3 PM CDT) as the
convective start time. So far today several random short lived
storms have formed but died out quickly. Not expecting but a few
storms that diminish this evening. Overnight lows will be in the
60s.
On Monday, the ridge will be flattened as broad cyclonic flow
across southern Canada becomes dominant. This will allow a cold
front to slide through the region Monday afternoon and this will
be the focus for thunderstorm development. Steep low level lapse
rates and weak shear aloft suggest a marginal large hail/wind
severe risk late Monday along the frontal boundary.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017
The extended period will be dominated by a cool upper low over
central Canada that migrates toward the Great Lakes. Circulation
around this feature will bring several shortwaves in northwest
flow through the region. One, on Wednesday, will bring a
significant cold front through the state. Model consensus is for
scattered showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. After Wednesday,
Thursday and Friday will be cool and dry, with highs in the upper
60s and 70s. Then moderating temperatures are expected Saturday
and Sunday with highs in the 70s to mid 80s. Continued mainly
dry.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 927 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017
A cold front will move from northwest to southeast across western
and central North Dakota on Monday. This will be the focus for
late afternoon and evening thunderstorms, especially across
southwest and central North Dakota. VFR conditions are expected
outside of thunderstorms for the 00 UTC TAF cycle.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PA
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...PA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
531 PM MDT Sun Jul 30 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Sun Jul 30 2017
Current KCYS radar loop shows most of the convection to the south
across Colorado this afternoon after it pushed through Laramie
county a few hours ago. There are a few weak additional
thunderstorms northwest of Cheyenne, otherwise drier air aloft is
moving into the northern zones including the towns of Douglas and
Lusk as the upper level disturbance is moving through the I-80
corridor at this time. Might get a few more thunder-showers
developing this afternoon, but generally expect coverage to
continue decreasing through the evening. Added some patchy fog to
the forecast since each morning has seen some fog across the
central and southern NE panhandle. Not terribly confident with fog
developing after midnight as the upper level disturbance moves
overhead, but with weak winds and llvl moisture, can not rule it
out early Monday morning.
Expect less coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Monday with
models all showing an upper level ridge building into northern
Wyoming. Most thunderstorms should be located further south along
and south of I-80, but can not rule out a few cells in the
afternoon along and east of the Laramie Range. Lowered POP between
15 to 20 percent into Monday evening. Models show the upper level
ridge breaking down on Tuesday as a weak upper level disturbance
moves southward across eastern Wyoming. This could result in a
slightly more favorable environment for thunderstorm activity, but
mainly expected rain showers into the evening hours. Temperatures
will be slightly cooler than average for this time of year with
highs in the upper 70`s (west) to middle 80`s (east) across the
area.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Sun Jul 30 2017
Relatively mid weather will be over the CWA this period under a
northwesterly flow aloft in a bit of an unusual pattern featuring
a cool upper low over the Great lakes region. A shortwave looks to
move southeast across the northern plains late Weds and should
produce at least sctd showers and a few tstms especially east of
the mtns that afternoon and evening. A cool surface high follows
in the wake of the upper shortwave and settles over the plains
Thursday and Friday resulting in drier and mild temperatures.
Gradual warmup over the weekend but remaining on the dry side with
better moisture shunted well to the south.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 531 PM MDT Sun Jul 30 2017
We still have scattered thunderstorms just to the southeast of
Sidney so will carry TSRA vicinity a while longer there, with a
few weakening showers popping up in the vicinity of Cheyenne so
will leave VCSH going for another hour or so there. Otherwise,
HRRR and NAM continue to advertise another brief round of early
morning fog over parts of the Nebraska Panhandle so advertised
another round toward morning for Alliance and Sidney where some
boundary layer moisture will linger tonight. Farther west and
north boundary layer airmass will dry a bit in northerly flow
tonight so won`t mention fog for Scottsbluff or Chadron. Less
coverage of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow...so VFR expected
otherwise.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sun Jul 30 2017
Fire Weather concerns will be minimal through the week with
relatively light winds, cooler temperatures, and higher relative
humidities. Temperatures will be near or slightly below normal
early this week before a strong cold front moves across the
High Plains on Thursday, resulting in below normal temperatures
into next weekend. There will be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms each day, with a gradual decrease in activity by the
end of the week.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
639 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017
Mid level high pressure continues to be centered over Texas this
morning. Water vapor imagery shows abundant tropical moisture
continuing to stream north from the eastern Pacific into the
central Plains states. A weak mid level disturbance was tracking
around the periphery of the upper high and was moving north
northeastward through New Mexico early this afternoon. Numerous
model solutions seem to be picking up on this feature and are
focusing heavier precipitation amounts over the southwest part of
the forecast area through the late afternoon and evening hours.
The HRRR has been hinting at a roughly east-west line of storms
developing by mid afternoon and this is currently verifying based
on current radar loops showing storms developing south of Syracuse
and Lakin. With this in mind and after collaborating with
adjacent offices, will hoist a Flash Flood Watch for the western
two tiers of counties in the forecast area for late this afternoon
through tonight. Some uncertainty as to how far east the most
significant precipitation will be. Given that the CAMs as well as
WPC guidance show the heaviest amounts in the far southwest, will
keep the watch out there for now and let later shifts update as
necessary. Have increased pops into the likely category farther
east across the forecast area tonight.
Model trends show additional shower and thunderstorm development farther
east across southwest Kansas and toward central Kansas later tonight
which makes sense given the eventual track of the disturbance. This
should keep precipitation going into the daytime hours on Monday.
Will keep the higher pops going into Monday morning before tapering
off through the late morning and afternoon hours as the disturbance
drifts east and southeast out of the area.
Have also lowered high temperatures on Monday especially for
parts of the area the area that will see the lingering rain. Parts
of the area may stay in the lower 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017
The upper flow pattern retrogresses through the early part of this
week with mid/upper level high pressure setting up over the Great
Basin region. The central High Plains will be under weakly
cyclonic northwesterly flow through mid week. This may result in
some drying out of the airmass over the region but there will be
at least some chance for afternoon and night time thunderstorms
especially out toward the Colorado border. By mid week a strong
shortwave trough dives out of Canada across the northern Plains
and Midwest with a cold front pushing through western Kansas
Wednesday night or early Thursday. Cooler and drier conditions are
expected behind the front through the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017
The focus this forecast cycle will be on timing of heavy rain
producing thunderstorms and showers for the terminals through
at least mid morning on Monday. The HRRR at this time trends
toward a southward development with time of thunderstorms through
the late evening with potential for at least MVFR ceilings if not
IFR after 9z. As the convection remains relegated mostly to the
southwest sections of Kansas, HYS may not see any convection at
all until 9-12 UTC timeframe in morning showers.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 73 61 82 / 70 50 20 20
GCK 63 74 61 81 / 60 40 10 20
EHA 63 77 61 81 / 90 30 20 30
LBL 64 76 62 81 / 80 50 20 20
HYS 62 80 62 85 / 30 20 10 10
P28 65 76 64 85 / 50 50 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for KSZ061-062-074-075-
084-085.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Russell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
834 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017
.UPDATE...
Temperatures and heat index values have fallen below heat advisory
levels allowing the heat advisory to expire. Outflow boundaries and
the weak cold front continued to generate showers and thunderstorms
across central and western parts of our area. Will maintain POPs in
these areas for tonight. However, activity should slowly wane with
sunset and loss of heating. Finally, reestablished trends to the
temperatures, dewpoints, and winds for the rest of tonight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017/
AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/
DRT,SAT,SSF will all see convection related outflows to tamper with
the winds through around 02Z, with DRT possibly seeing an extension
of VCSH later into the evening. Afterwards the forecast should become
uneventful with an easterly wind and vfr skies. The latest HRRR
extends rain chances later into the night, but expect the gusty
outflows produced from cells along the frontal boundary will reduce
chances after dark.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017/
UPDATE...
Have issued a Heat Advisory for areas along and east of I-35 as
temperatures are in the 103 to 108 range along with heat index values
in the 108 to 112 range. It will run through 8 PM. Have also expanded
POPs a little to the southwest for this afternoon into evening based
on radar trends. Only other changes were to re-establish temperature,
dewpoint, and wind trends through this evening.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
A weak "cold" front moved earlier across the northern portion of the
Hill Country and since then, it was made little further progression.
In the mean time, temperatures will continue to rise into the upper
90s and up to 108 degrees across the southwest part of Rio Grande
this afternoon. Heat index values to top at 103 to 106 degrees
with isolated places reaching the 108-109 degree mark for an hour or
two. By the middle of this afternoon and early evening hours, enough
instability should be in place for isolated showers and
thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of the frontal boundary as
the cap erodes. If the storms manage to develop, some of them could
be strong with thunderstorm wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph. Also,
precipitable water values are around 2 inches which could result in
heavy downpours.
Rain chances continue overnight mainly across the Edwards Plateau
and Rio Grande Plains over the warmer/moist sector of the "cold"
front.
Lingering isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly
across the southwest/Rio Grande Plains area Monday morning. A drier
airmass is expected to push from east Texas into our area Monday to
limit any convection to the coastal plains. Surface northeasterly
winds in the wake of the dissipate "cold" front and less moisture
will result in lower temperatures than previous days with highs in
the mid to upper 90s.
LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
The upper level pattern is forecast to change and brings chances for
rain, especially from Wednesday into next weekend. Several upper
level short-waves are forecast to push down from the Central Plains
into our region and produce several rounds of scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms. The GFS and Canadian models suggest the
wetter period to be on Thursday while the EURO solution brings it on
Friday. However, overall, all medium range models are in good
agreement on increased chances for rain for the latter part of the
work week. There may be some lingering showers and thunderstorms for
the upcoming week mainly for areas east and south of Interstate 35
and coastal plains. Due to clouds and wet grounds, daily temperatures
should stay in the low to mid 90s from Wednesday through the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 76 98 76 98 76 / 10 - 0 10 10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 97 73 97 74 / 10 - 0 10 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 98 73 98 74 / 10 10 0 - 10
Burnet Muni Airport 73 94 72 93 72 / 10 - 0 10 20
Del Rio Intl Airport 79 101 78 99 77 / 20 20 - 10 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 73 96 73 96 74 / 10 0 0 10 10
Hondo Muni Airport 76 100 72 100 74 / 20 20 0 - -
San Marcos Muni Airport 75 97 72 97 73 / 10 - 0 - 10
La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 97 73 97 75 / 10 0 0 10 10
San Antonio Intl Airport 77 98 75 98 76 / 20 10 0 - 10
Stinson Muni Airport 77 97 75 97 76 / 20 10 0 - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...04
Public Service/Data Collection...33
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
926 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017
.DISCUSSION...
The cold front was located at 9:00 PM across Galveston Bay west to
along Clear Creek to across Austin County. Dewpoints north of the
front were in the 60s while 70s inland to the lower 80s at the
coast were common south of the front. The front has slowed down
its southward movement over the past couple of hours but do expect
it to resume its southward movement later tonight. Still looking
at a weak upper level shortwave to move from north to south across
the forecast area later tonight. As this system interacts with the
front, chances for showers and thunderstorms look to increase
along and ahead of the front overnight tonight over the counties
near Matagorda Bay. The latest HRRR and NAM12 both show some
development after midnight in these locations.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017/
AVIATION.../00Z TAF/
Hand surface analysis was done to actually confirm there was a
frontal boundary pushing through SE Texas this afternoon. Front
was stretched from basically Austin to Houston and just off the
Louisiana coast. A few storms have formed between KSGR and KLBX
with direct impact to KLBX. Storms should be short lived and
expect KLBX to only have maybe another 30 minutes to an hour of
VCTS/TSRA. All other TAFs except for KGLS will have 1 line TAFs
for VFR and NE winds. KGLS will have more wind direction changes
but still VFR.
Overpeck
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017/
DISCUSSION...
A weak frontal boundary continues to push towards Matagorda Bay
this afternoon, currently located along a Sealy to Jamaica Beach
line. Have seen a few showers attempt to pop up this afternoon
along the coast near the intersection of the front and the sea
breeze and a few more may develop as convective temperatures in
the upper 90s are met southwest of the Houston metro. Expect most
activity to dissipate with loss of heating later this evening, but
another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible again overnight around Matagorda Bay as a disturbance
rotating around the upper ridge over West Texas arrives from the
ArkLaTex. Otherwise, expect overnight lows to range from the low
70s to low 80s under partly cloudy skies.
Drier air behind today`s front will result in dry conditions on
Monday and will also allow for Monday to feel slightly cooler
than today as heat index values "only" rise into the mid to upper
90s (high temperatures low to mid 90s). Gulf moisture begins to
push back into the region Monday night and Tuesday, with showers
across the coastal waters Monday night spreading inland during the
day Tuesday. Upper ridging is expected to continue to retreat
from Texas towards the Four Corners through the middle of the
week. As the ridge retreats and moisture returns, the region will
enter a relatively wet period mid to late week. Diurnal
destabilization is expected to contribute to scattered shower and
thunderstorm development each day with highs in the upper 80s to
low 90s and lows in the low 70s to low 80s, with shower and
thunderstorm coverage enhanced by disturbances that translate
across the region in the northwest flow aloft.
Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement that a compact
upper disturbance swinging across the Great Lakes from Canada will
send another cold front into the region by next weekend. With
onshore flow continuing to draw moisture across Southeast Texas
ahead of the front, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
remain a possibility along and ahead of the cold front through the
upcoming weekend. Expect temperatures to remain near to below
seasonal normals from cloud cover and rain.
Huffman
MARINE...
Winds will continue to become E to NE this afternoon and tonight
in the wake of a cold front pushing across the area. High pressure
lingering over the northern MS river valley will help to keep a
generally light easterly flow in the forecast for the northern
Gulf coast through late Tues. A series of disturbances this week
and a possible cold front approaching this upcoming weekend will
keep periods of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast from
Tuesday through the weekend. 11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 73 96 74 95 75 / 10 0 0 10 20
Houston (IAH) 75 94 76 93 77 / 10 0 0 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 81 91 81 88 80 / 10 0 20 30 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
922 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017
.DISCUSSION...
After a somewhat active evening with a few wind gusts exceeding 34
knots over the coastal waters, the shower and thunderstorm
coverage to our west appears to be waning as the evening
progresses. Coverage has been scattered to numerous through the
evening with the stronger storms over the upper keys. The Key West
evening sounding found precipitable water above 2 inches, with
MLCAPE near 2800 j/kg and mean RH from the surface to 700mb around
70 percent. Also, lapse rates from 1000-700mb are a steep -6.9
c/km. This potential instability will maintain a favorable
environment for showers and storms to flourish, and any convective
development could result in thunderstorms. With the deep layer
trough digging into south Florida, general diffluence aloft will
aid in shower and thunderstorm development overnight, mainly over
the mainland. With prolific thunderstorm activity just to our
north, numerous boundary interactions should result in scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the area overnight, especially in
the Gulf waters to our north and over the upper Keys. Outside of
thunderstorm outflow, the ambient winds along the islands and the
CMAN stations along the reef are fairly light out of the
southwest, with near 5 knots over the Keys and near 10 knots along
the reef.
.SHORT TERM...
Most of the showers and storms should stay to our north overnight,
but as mentioned above boundary interactions will produce
scattered activity over the islands and coastal waters.
Additionally, fossil cloud line boundaries along the islands
could ignite some convection. The HRRR model shows us mostly
clear of convection through morning, but may not account
adequately for boundary interaction. Although possibly overdone,
will keep the high chance pops for the overnight period in the
zone forecasts and scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
coastal waters.
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate to fresh breezes are possible over the Gulf waters north
of the island chain, and mariners should exercise caution when
traversing these waters. Additionally, shower and thunderstorm
activity over these waters could produce wind gusts exceeding 34
knots. Over the Florida Straits, Hawk Channel, Florida Bay and the
Gulf waters west of the Keys, moderate breezes are expected and
scattered thunderstorms are possible.
&&
.AVIATION...
Overnight, VFR conditions will prevail at both the KEYW & KMTH
international island terminals until about 4 to 5 Zulu.
Thereafter, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
begin to impact either/both terminals. Amendments will be issued
as needed, but tempo conditions with short lived mvfr/ifr cigs
and/or visibility appear likely if any cells upstream approach
the terminals. Outside of SHRA and TSRA winds will average from
210-230 degrees at 8-13 knots with gusts between 15 to 20 knots,
except local wind gusts to 30 knots or higher are possible in and
near SHRA and TSRA.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Public/Marine/Fire...Devanas
Aviation/Nowcasts....Futterman
Data Collection......Chesser
Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key
Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
711 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 354 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2017
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level ridge from
the srn plains into the Great Basin with downstream nw flow through
the wrn Great Lakes. At the surface, weak wnw flow prevailed between
high pressure from Iowa into the srn Great Lakes and a weak trough
over nrn Ontario. The combination of daytime heating pushing MLCAPE
values into the 1000-1500 J/Kg range, a weak shrtwv and lake breeze
boundaries have supported sct/isold shra/tsra over inland portions
of Upper Michigan. Most of the stronger tsra were moving into the
srn cwa. With weak 0-6km shear less than 20 knots, only brief heavy
downpours are likely with possibly some gusty winds and small hail.
Tonight, expect the shra/tsra to weaken and dissipate this evening
with the loss of heating. However, sct tsra will persist across for
areas along and south of US-2 through the late afternoon with only a
few isold lighter showers south of M-28. Additional low level
moistening from the rain followed by clearing overnight will support
at least patchy fog development.
Monday, Similar to today, MLCAPEs into the 1k-2k J/Kg range in
the afternoon along with the another weak shrtwv moving into the
area, the high res models suggest that lake breeze boundaries
cntrl will provide enough low level conv to help trigger isold/sct
shra/tsra. 0-6km shear values only near 15 knots and high
freezing levels will again favor mainly pulse tsra with brief
periods of heavy rain.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2017
Nam shows a 500 mb ridge over the western U.S. with a trough over
the ern U.S. 00z Tue. The trough over the ern U.S. digs this
forecast period with the ridge amplifying in the west. Nam shows
some 850-500 mb q-vector convergence along with limited moisture
through Wed morning over the area. GFS and ECMWF show the same
thing. Did not make too many changes to the going forecast.
In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the
central and eastern U.S. 12z Thu with a shortwave digging into the
upper Great Lakes 12z Fri. A 500 mb ridge remains over the western
U.S. in the amplified upper pattern 12z Sat and the upper pattern
changes little for Sun with troughing in the ern U.S. and ridging
over the western U.S. Temperatures will continue below normal for
this forecast period along with some chance pops for Thu night and
Fri.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 710 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2017
VFR conditions continue through the forecast period, with an
exception for KIWD and possibly KSAW. Similar to the past few
nights, patchy ground fog will impact KIWD as winds go light,
resulting in visibilities varying from VFR to IFR beginning sometime
after 7Z. KSAW may see some patchy fog develop overnight but with a
light downslope flow persisting through the nighttime hours, have
left mention of this out of the KSAW TAF for now. Tomorrow afternoon
should be a repeat of this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms
developing along the lake breeze around 18z at KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 354 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2017
Winds will remain below 20 knots through the forecast period as high
pressure remains over the area into Wednesday.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
330 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017
Mild temperatures will continue across the region through the
early part of the week as surface high pressure remains to our
east with only weak southerly lows level return flow. Broad
mid/upper level high pressure ridge remains over the western CONUS
with a weak impulse dropping across eastern SD this afternoon.
Some weak convection has developed across southeast SD and latest
runs of the operational HRRR do show some of this activity making
it into our far northwestern counties this evening. Did add a
small chance across portions of northeast Nebraska for this.
Otherwise, northwesterly flow aloft will continue across the
forecast area as the western upper level ridge begins to amplify
across the West Coast. Overall highs will continue to range in the
80s with lows in the 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017
With continued northwest flow aloft, a stronger shortwave will
drop out of Canada and into our region by mid week allowing a
surface cold front to slide south. Precipitation chances will
increase as this front approaches with model blend pops in the
40-50 percent range. Cooler temps are also expected with highs
only in the 70s Thursday and Friday which will run about 10-15
degrees below normal for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017
VFR conditions through the period. There area a few showers in
northeast NE early this afternoon, but outside of the 5 mile
radius at KOFK, thus no mention at that location.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...DeWald
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
147 PM MDT Sun Jul 30 2017
.DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have again redeveloped over higher
terrain regions early this afternoon. Downdraft CAFE sufficient to
support gusty winds, and earlier runs of HRRR today generated
enough to support a few cells reaching near severe limits,
especially in regions of outflow boundary interaction. Have kept
gusty wind wording associated with thunderstorm development
through the evening. Upper ridge continues to strengthen, with
high centered over Nevada into mid week. High pressure and
weakening moisture fields should preclude convective development
most areas Monday, though kept some mention directly along WY
border closest to deeper moisture for Mon afternoon and evening. A
weak shortwave rotates around the high Tuesday, bringing some
moisture along, so have kept weak precip chances mainly across the
central mountain region late Tuesday. Otherwise, as high
strengthens and axis surges north to the west of the region, have
kept precip chances limited through the remainder of the week
under the influence of drier northwest flow. Drier conditions will
allow temps to rebound into the lower to mid 90s for most lower
elevation regions. DMH
&&
.AVIATION...
Forecast nearly identical to yesterday, with isold t-storms over
the higher terrain but moderate-high confidence in VFRs at all
terminals. Have maintained VCTS at KSUN/KDIJ through 04Z. Storms
will again be capable of heavy rain and gusty outflow winds. As
was the case yesterday, the HRRR is generating very strong outflow
winds (to 50kts!) impacting KPIH/KIDA from supposed future
storms. Once again, believe this scenario is extremely unlikely
and will leave it out of the TAFs in favor of closely monitoring
and amending/calling ATCTs if needed as we always do. Outside of
VCTS, winds will be very light at less than 10kts everywhere
through Monday AM.
Initial thoughts for Monday are that all terminals will remain dry
and solidly VFR. A very isolated storm cannot be ruled out over the
mntns, but will likely not affect KSUN/KDIJ. - KSmith/DMH
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Fairly dry conditions across our region throughout
the week as a whole. Today, however, critical RH values are not
expected for Eastern Idaho and portion of Central Idaho. Most of
Southern Idaho will see below 15 RH with minimal recovery overnight.
Monday is looking even drier with single digit RH values probable
across the desert and Central Idaho becoming critical. As a note,
EFD`s are in the 80 to 90 percent range across portions of
Central Idaho and increasing. Tuesday and Wednesday`s dryness
forecast is looking quite similar to Monday`s then by Thursday
some brief recovery is possible. Afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will lead to LAL of 2`s almost each day across
portions of Central Idaho and the northern portion of Eastern
Idaho across the Targhee NF. This trend generally will be done on
Wednesday. Tuesday continues to look like a potential windy day as
well, as a weak wave pushes into the region. Not much likelihood
this will bring any wetting rains though. NP/DMH
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$