Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/24/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1033 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
The area will receive a widespread rainfall tonight and Monday
with chances for showers lingering through Tuesday as a low
pressure system approaches and gradually moves across the region.
Fair weather is expected for the mid week with more chances for
rainfall Thursday and Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 1033 PM EDT...A vigorous short wave will move across the
Great Lakes region tonight amplifying the trough and strengthen
a surface low moving eastward along the stationary boundary to
our south.
Bands of convection have been ongoing since this afternoon
across western and central NY, although this activity has
been weakening as it heads eastward towards our area. At this
time, no appreciable rainfall has occurred yet across eastern
New York, with a rather stable atmosphere in place.
Based on the latest 3km HRRR and NAM, showers will finally spread
across our area from west to east after midnight and into the
late overnight hours. We will continue to allow for a slight
chance to chance of thunder for western and southern areas, as
there may be just enough instability to allow for some rumbles
in those areas. Otherwise, light rain showers will become more
widespread by the late night hours across the whole area.
By 3 to 5 AM, most areas should be seeing periods of rain
showers.
With increasing PWATs and a stregthening low-level jet, some
pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall are possible (mainly
across far southern areas). This may cause some minor flooding
of urban or poor drainage areas, but widespread flash flooding
is not expected because of the lower rainfall rates due to the
limited amount of deep convection expected our area. Model
guidance suggests the heaviest rainfall may just miss our area
to the south (closer to the low track), although any subtle
changes in this track could bring heavier rainfall closer to our
area.
Expecting lows in the lower to mid 60s in the valleys with mid
to upper 50s across the higher terrain. Light winds will increase
tonight especially across the higher terrain where easterly flow
is enhanced by the local terrain effects.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cool and wet Monday with highs 15 to 20 degrees below normal.
Trough will sharpen however guidance keeps it positively tilted
as it moves gradually across the region through Tuesday evening.
Widespread showers are expected to persist across most of the
forecast area through much of the day. The local area is
expected to remain on the cool and stable side of the system as
the surface low passes to our south. QPF amounts are uncertain
however indications are the heavier rainfall should occur to the
north and south of the local area. At this time, expecting 1 to
1 1/2 inches across the local area with the bulk of the rainfall
occurring late tonight into Monday afternoon. Looking at highs
only in the 60s with 50s across the higher terrain of the southern
Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains. Easterly winds will
be at their strongest Monday morning into the afternoon with
gusts up to 30 mph in locations where an easterly flow gets
locally enhanced by the terrain.
Chances for showers will linger Monday night into Tuesday as
the upper trough axis moves over the region. It will be cool
again Tuesday with highs 10 to 15 degrees below normal mainly in
the 60s with some 70s into portions of the mid Hudson Valley.
The upper trough axis finally moves off to our east late Tuesday
night and fair weather returns as we heads into mid week with
near seasonable warmth with highs in the 70s with some 60s
limited to the highest terrain of the Western Adirondacks,
eastern Catskills and southern Green Mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Unsettled weather looks to return to the region for the late week
period, as a frontal system and associated upper level trough moves
towards the area from the Great Lakes.
Although it should be mainly dry to start for Wednesday night, the
chance for showers and thunderstorms look to increase for Thursday
into Thursday night, as the cold front approaches from the
northwest. With a humid air mass in place ahead of the approaching
boundary, some thunderstorms will be possible, mainly for during
Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Lows on Wed & Thurs night
will mainly be in the 60s with highs in the mid 70s to near 80
for Thursday.
The models are still rather unclear on the exact timing of this
feature and there is the chance that some steady showers (and
perhaps some thunder) linger through all of Thursday night and into
Friday, especially if a wave of low pressure develops along the
frontal boundary. Even if the front does clear through, there still
will be a chance for some lingering showers for Friday into Saturday
thanks to the cyclonic flow due to the upper level trough overhead.
Daytime temps will generally be in the 70s and overnight lows will
be in the 60s, along with a partly to mostly cloudy sky.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A storm system over the Great Lakes will spread towards our
area tonight into impact the region through the day on Monday.
Flying conditions are currently VFR with bkn-ovc cigs at 5-10
kts. Mesoscale models suggest that rainfall will spread across
the area from west to east after Midnight, with flying
conditions expected to lower to MVFR by late tonight (mainly for
visibility). Some heavier pockets of rainfall (and possible
thunder) could occur near KPOU, so have included a PROB30 there
for IFR conditions for both vsbys/cigs due to a t-storm by late
tonight. Otherwise, it will generally be MVFR with light
rainfall for the second half of the overnight hours. E-NE winds
will generally be 5-10 kts, although some higher gusts are
possible for KPSF by late tonight into the day on Monday.
The steadiest rainfall showers will start to taper off by mid to
late morning on Monday, but additional on and off light rain
showers can be expected through the remainder of the day. With
plenty of lingering low-level moisture trapped under an
inversion, expect MVFR conditions for cigs to continue through
the rest of the day, although some improvement in visibility is
expected. NE-SE winds will be around 10 kts for the day on
Monday.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The area will receive a widespread rainfall tonight and Monday
with chances for showers lingering through Tuesday as a low
pressure system approaches and gradually moves across the region.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The area will receive a widespread rainfall tonight and Monday
with chances for showers lingering through Tuesday as a low
pressure system approaches and gradually moves across the region.
Expecting QPF amounts from 1 to 1 1/2 inches with the bulk of
the rainfall occurring late tonight into Monday afternoon. Some
locally heavy rainfall may occur especially for areas west of
the Hudson River Valley. Ponding of water on roadways would
occur with the heavier rainfall along with some minor flooding
of poor drainage and low lying areas possible.
Fair weather is expected for the mid week with more chances for
rainfall Thursday and Friday.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/Frugis
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
614 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Cycle
VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 00Z
Tuesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms can be expected across
the Panhandles this evening, however low confidence on timing and
location and whether any showers or storms will affect any of the
three TAF sites. Decided to leave out a TEMPO group for now and
instead left in VCTS at the Amarillo TAF site where a little
better chance exists amongst the three TAF sites that could be
affected. Otherwise, light east and southeast winds will prevail
around 5 to 10 knots or less.
Schneider
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 421 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/
DISCUSSION...
Noteworthy items for this forecast package are limited with no real
high impact weather. There is of course several chances for
thunderstorms with Tuesday being the only real dry period. Some
storms could be strong, but severe weather does not look likely over
the next several days. In the near term, Thursday could possibly see
some strong to marginally severe storms. Outside of this,
temperatures will be right around normal for this time of year.
Satellite trend this afternoon has shown a CU field developing over
parts of the forecast area. Forcing is very weak with limited shear
and instability. Any thunderstorms that form should be below severe
criteria. Storms will also be slow movers which could lead to
possible localized moderate to heavy rainfall in some areas. The
HRRR has been consistently hinting at convection this afternoon
across the Texas Panhandle. Showers are forming east of Amarillo
and are anticipated to start filling in more across the forecast
area, mainly southern parts of the Texas Panhandle.
Tuesday in the only dry period--outside of small chances to the
northwest--during this entire forecast package. Otherwise,
thunderstorms are possible each day, but little to no shear will
be our main limiting factor, especially during the afternoon
hours. We could see changes in the future forecast packages, but
at this time severe weather does not look favorable next week.
Guerrero
&&
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
11
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
934 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level ridging will weaken across the area today as the
upper level trough digs over the eastern US. A bermuda high will
provide very warm and humid conditions through Monday with
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. A
weak cool front will stall over the area Tuesday, then move
southward into southern Georgia on Wednesday before dissipating,
providing somewhat cooler weather and a continued threat for
scattered thunderstorms. High pressure will become re-
established for the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Strong thunderstorms moved through the area late in the
afternoon and evening. Satellite and radar trends suggest
continued weakening during the late evening as the storms move
to the south. Storms produced damaging winds and flooding. 2 to
4 inches rain fell in downtown Columbia.
Convection will end during the early morning hours with some
mid and upper level debris cloudiness through daybreak keeping
low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s for most locations. Low
level jet should limit fog late tonight although stratus
possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The forecast area will remain on the western edge of the Bermuda
high through Tuesday night, while heights aloft slowly drop as a
longwave trof becomes established over eastern North America.
This combination will lead to hot afternoons with max temps
generally in the lower to mid 90s, and maximum heat indices a
little above 100. The combination of developing steep low level
lapse rates each afternoon and weak vorticity aloft will lead
to scattered afternoon and evening convection. PWs will range
from 1.8 inches to 2.2 inches across the CWA, so any slow moving
convection could dump some locally heavy rain in spots.
Min temps will remain quite warm with lows in the mid to upper
70s most places.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
On Wednesday, a weak front will slowly slide through the CWA as
a small area of low pressure develops off of the South Carolina
coast and moves to the northeast. It`s main impact will be to
dry the air out a little bit Wednesday night and Thursday, but
max temps on Thursday afternoon will still be in the 90s as an
increase in sunshine will offset any weak cool advection that
tries to set up. Thursday will also see the lowest chance for
afternoon and evening convection for the week.
By Friday, the main global models begin to diverge with details,
but the overall pattern indicates a digging shortwave will move
into the southeastern states on Friday. This will cause an
increase in the deep southwesterly flow, allowing moisture to
quickly return in the form of clouds and scattered convection,
especially during the second half of the day. The weekend
contains a lot of uncertainty as the GFS shows a rather strongly
amplified pattern for july with a significantly deep trough
carving out over the southeastern states, while the ECMWF is
much more progressive with the digging shortwave on Saturday and
instead is more focused on the next shortwave, which is in the
7-10 day period and not part of this package. I have gone for
generally unsettled weather due to the mean trof, without
concentrating too much on the individual shortwaves. This means
slightly above normal chances for rain and slightly below
normal afternoon temps due to increased cloud cover.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thunderstorms threat at the terminals will be diminishing by
03z. MVFR conditions should improve to VFR with scattered
cumulus and mid/high level ceilings.
The hrrr model is indicating the potential for restrictions late
tonight. Fog appears a lower threat than stratus due to low
level jet...but with rainfall cant rule out visibility
restrictions. All sites will be VFR from 14z through the end of
the period with cumulus developing during the late morning
hours through the end of the period as another round of
convection is expected Monday afternoon.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing confidence in
restrictions in mainly afternoon/evening thunderstorms through
Wednesday. We could also see some morning cig restrictions from
stratus by Tuesday and Wednesday. The convection looks to
decrease on Thursday, but should pick right back up again by
Friday.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
959 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017
An evening zone forecast update to remove slight chance PoPs for
Converse and Niobrara counties. Recent HRRR radar reflectivity
trends keep showers and thunderstorms to the north of these
counties late this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 217 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017
Pretty quiet and hot weather pattern will be in place through Monday
with strong ridging aloft and limited monsoonal moisture. Visible
imagery shows scattered cumulus across southeast WY with the best
vertical develop along the southern Laramie Range near the Colorado
border. While much of the CWA will remain storm free through the
evening, the HRRR has been consistent at showing isolated convection
developing by late aftn over the Laramie Range, spreading eastward
into adjacent plains. Will maintain PoPs around 20 percent through
the early evening. With deep boundary layers and high T/Td spreads,
thinking that gusty outflow and downdrafts will be the main threat.
The pattern will be similar for Monday with ridging/subsidence aloft
keeping tstm chances rather limited. It will be the warmest day
in the short term with highs rising into the 90s to low 100s across
the plains. A sfc trough will stretch from around Laramie to Chadron
during the aftn. Not expecting much convective initiation along
the trough except in areas near the southern Laramie Range. The
models continue to show midlvl flow becoming more southwesterly by
Tuesday, which will transport subtropical moisture into the CWA,
especially across southeast WY. The GFS has PW values rising to
around 1 inch over areas to the west of the Laramie Range by Tuesday
aftn. With a weak shortwave trough moving into northwest Colorado,
there will be a much better chance of storms, particularly over
the western mtns (Sierra Madre/Snowy Range). Heavy rain will
definitely be a possibility with deep monsoonal moisture in place.
Went ahead and increased PoPs over areas to the west of the Laramie
Range by Tuesday aftn.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017
Energetic west-southwest flow aloft will keep an active pattern
in place Tuesday night through Thursday. Monsoonal moisture will
ride overhead within this flow pattern, so expect to see a good
chance for showers and thunderstorms through this time. A front
riding south across the forecast area Tuesday night will keep
showers/storms ongoing through the night, with upslope stratus a
good possibility in the post frontal environment Wednesday morning.
The best coverage for convection Wednesday afternoon will be along
and west of I-25. Return moisture in low level southeasterly
upslope flow looks to combine with moderate values of bulk shear
on Thursday to set the stage for a broader coverage of activity
across the area, with perhaps a stronger storm or two. A ridge
will build to our west on Friday, with a shortwave moving across
Wyoming in west-northwest flow. This wave will drag another front
south across the area with convection likely to be confined along
the front and within the higher terrain. Saturday will be drier
overall with warm temps and subsidence aloft.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 518 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light winds for the
most part into Monday morning then becoming a bit gusty by late
morning over parts of the Panhandle.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 217 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017
Minimal fire weather concerns through the middle of next week. With
a warm and dry airmass in place, minimum humidity values will drop
to 13-20 percent over portions of southeast Wyoming this afternoon
and Monday afternoon. We are not expecting any critical fire weather
conditions however, as winds will be relatively light. An increase
in monsoonal moisture on Tuesday and Wednesday will bring higher
relative humidity values and a better chance of wetting rains.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MAJ
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
802 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017
.UPDATE...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms continue across the region,
especially toward Athens. Those traveling I-85 north and along
I-20 east of the metro ATL should heed caution as very strong
storms may cross these interstates over the next couple of hours.
Gusty winds, heavy rain and frequent lightning are the main
threats. We have had some reports of small hail with these
storms. Training of storms may also lead to localized flooding.
Anticipate this activity to continue to move southeast and
diminish through the evening with loss of daytime heating.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 734 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017/
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 308 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017/
SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Recent analysis of afternoon water vapor imagery reveals a mid level
synoptic pattern over the CONUS characterized by a persistent ridge
over the western US...and an amplifying cyclonic flow regime over
the eastern US. The most notable feature east of the Rockies is a
southeastward moving shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes.
MEanwhile at the sfc...a weak sfc front extended roughly from the
Great Lakes S/SW through IN,IL, MO, and AR...with a weak trough
extending down the Piedmont of the Carolinas into Georgia.
Rest of today and tonight: Forecast is complicated by numerous
outflow boundaries and convectively induced perturbations in the
mean flow. This morning`s MCS over KY has diminished...although
its outflow boundary has helped several complexes develop over
eastern TN and western NC. Think highest concentration of
convective coverage will be across north Georgia where any larger
scale outflow could be influenced by orographic processes and
perhaps the weak sfc trough. Nonetheless...with MLCAPE between
2000-3000J/Kg across the entire CWA...storms could pop up
anywhere. Downburst winds the main threat with low level lapse
rates over 7C/km and PWs near 2 inches. The HRRR has been
consistent in showing redevelopment across KY/TN towards sunset
tonight /likely influenced by morning MCS and the weak front/. It
is possible some of this convection could impact far north Georgia
after midnight...though confidence is low given time of day and
weak flow. Showing slight POPs for now to reflect this
possibility...with a diminishing trend towards sunrise.
Much of the same story for Monday as sfc troughing continues and
Great Lakes shortwave moves into New England. Aforementioned weak
front will likely be closer to the state...but still far enough away
to not have a profound impact on convective initiation. Forecast
will be complicated again by outflow boundaries and convectively
induced perturbations in the mid levels. All things
considered...trend should still remain largely diurnally driven.
Temps will be hot...and it will be humid.
Kovacik
LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
No major changes to the long term from the previous forecast. A weak
trough of low pressure will remain over the CWA early in the long
term. This will develop into a closed low over Georgia by Wednesday
and as the H5 ridge builds over the middle of the country, this will
push the low out of Georgia however there are discrepancies in the
models as to how much moisture will be pushed out as well. Due to
this will maintain pops across the CWA for the latter half of the
week. The next short wave will move out of the upper plains and
toward the CWA toward next weekend increasing the chances of precip
late in the week and next weekend. Temperatures will remain at or
near climate norms through the long term.
17
AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms moving across the
northern TAF sites this evening. This activity will work south
and likely dwindle with loss of heating. Some lingering
isolated thunderstorms across southern TAF sites should decrease
to just VCSH the next couple hours. While activity in TN is
becoming better organized this evening, feel these thunderstorms
will likely diminish as they cross far northern GA. VFR conditions
are expected (apart from any precipitation activity) through the
overnight as convective debris erodes. Fog/stratus formation
seems fairly limited given dewpoint depressions. However, for
those that received plentiful rain this afternoon/evening, you may
see patchy ditch fog by early morning. CU decks will increase by
mid morning tomorrow to around 4KFT. Another convective day in
store with development expected by 16-17Z. West winds will
continue through the TAF period.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on evening/overnight convection potential.
High confidence on all other elements.
26
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 96 75 91 73 / 60 40 50 40
Atlanta 91 75 89 74 / 60 40 50 40
Blairsville 89 69 85 67 / 60 50 50 40
Cartersville 92 73 88 72 / 60 40 50 40
Columbus 95 75 92 75 / 50 40 50 40
Gainesville 91 74 88 73 / 60 40 50 40
Macon 93 75 92 74 / 50 40 50 40
Rome 92 72 89 73 / 60 40 50 40
Peachtree City 92 73 90 72 / 60 40 50 40
Vidalia 92 76 92 74 / 60 40 50 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kovacik
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...26
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
950 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017
.UPDATE...
Convection continues to dissipate this evening across portions of
the Piney Woods region and expect mostly dry conditions to persist
through the remainder of the evening hours. However, rain chances
for the overnight period remain a little more uncertain.
Surface analysis shows a southward surging outflow boundary that
has crossed the Red River into North Texas, with thunderstorms
congealing along this outflow. Pressure rises behind it are not
terribly impressive, but the thunderstorms developing along the
boundary may support continued maintenance of the cold pool and
allow it to reach Southeast Texas in the pre-dawn hours. High
resolution guidance has not been terribly excited about overnight
rain potential so far this evening, but the latest (01Z) run of
the HRRR has begun to indicate a few showers (or maybe a storm)
may be able to develop across parts of the Brazos Valley during
the early morning hours. Whether or not this is actually from the
outflow (or another more subtle boundary already located across
the Brazos Valley... where interestingly Hearne has a light
northerly wind and College Station has a southerly wind,
indicating some weak surface convergence) remains to be seen. As a
result, have readjusted rain chances to include 20 PoPs generally
north of a Brenham to Cleveland line to account for uncertainty
with the evolution of the outflow boundary (and potentially
others).
Otherwise south to southwest winds 5-15 MPH tonight and partly
cloudy skies should keep overnight lows warm again in the mid 70s
to mid 80s.
Huffman
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/
AVIATION...
A few shra/tsra will be possible over northern TAF sites through
03z before all of the precip comes to an end with the loss of
daytime heating. Fcst soundings show high clouds hanging around
for much of the night and into Monday. Fcst soundings also showing
little in the way of saturation on Monday and warmer convective
temps so will not mention precip in any of the TAFs on Monday.
S-SW winds will not fully decouple tonight and will likely remain
moderate on Monday. Could get some brief MVFR cigs Monday morning
at northern TAF sites between 13-16z but dry air aloft should mix
to the surface quickly and clouds will scatter out by mid morning
leaving VFR conds for the rest of the day. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/
DISCUSSION...
Coverage so far today has been generally north of I-10 and along
and east of I-45. Still not ruling out some isolated development
over the far NW counties through the early evening hours, but the
bulk of the storms will likely remain over the central zones of SE
TX.
With the upper low near the TX/LA border continuing to weaken tonight,
the ridge aloft out west will begin to build into the area
tomorrow. Slightly less coverage is expected tomorrow and Tuesday
as a result...with a corresponding bump up of daytime high temps.
Would not be too surprised to see a few 100s at some of our sites
with heat indicies 105-108 for most locations these next couple
of days.
Slightly deeper moisture progged to move in from the Gulf on Weds
and scattered POPS (closer to the coast) will be possible. A return
of mostly daytime seabreeze induced activity expected for the
rest of the week. As for the extended forecast...models appear to
be hinting that we might possibly see the passage of a very weak
front. Will likely just leave lowish POPS in for the weekend and
hope later runs add a bit more clarity. 41
MARINE...
Showers and storms have been largely suppressed over our waters
today as the bulk of today`s activity is either over land, or tucked
closer to the upper disturbance off the SW Louisiana coast. Water
vapor imagery shows that disturbance drifting westward, so parts of
the waters off the upper Texas coast can likely look to see activity
increase this afternoon and evening.
Winds have not really come down significantly today, and so continue
the SCEC through the night, as winds should stay up overnight. Of
course, winds and waves can be expected to be even higher near any
thunderstorms. Winds should gradually diminish and veer slightly as
surface high pressure moves over the area. Along with that, waves
should also slowly diminish from 2-4 feet to 1-3 feet. Relatively
persistent onshore flow should keep tides running several inches
above astronomical levels through the week, but should be well shy
of tide levels associated with causing flooding issues.
Luchs
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 98 76 97 78 / 20 20 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 78 95 77 93 78 / 20 20 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 83 90 83 90 82 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT Monday for the following
zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 5 AM CDT Monday for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay...Waters from
Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...
Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Discussion...14
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
348 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday: Latest RAP analysis shows only subtle
westward movement to the upper- level low along the Louisiana
coast so far today. While the broad mid-level subtropical ridge is
somewhat evident across the Deep South, it has broken down
considerably over the last day or so and become more centered back
to our west over the Desert Southwest/Four Corners region. This
has allowed for a downward trend in heat issues as a shortwave
trough swings through the Great Lakes region. Clouds and an early
start to showers and storms today have also helped to keep temps
cooler than previous days. The only heat stress issues remain
confined to the northwest Delta and western portions of the Hwy 82
corridor where a few sites have been close to or at the 105
degree heat index criteria, so will let the ongoing heat index
continue through the rest of the afternoon.
Numerous showers and storms are ongoing from GLH to HBG in closer
proximity to the upper low and deep moisture axis. The greatest
coverage of storms will remain in this area with only scattered
coverage expected elsewhere through the rest of this afternoon with
activity driven by outflow boundary interactions. Poor lapse rates
and vertical totals will preclude a greater risk for mircobursts
with updrafts struggling to become deep and sustained, however
isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out, especially with
slow/training storms. Storms should dissipate after sunset, however
a few isolated lingering showers will be possible through the
overnight. Low temps will be generally be in the low to mid 70s.
On Monday, the upper-level low that has been plaguing the area will
become an open wave and get picked up by the departing shortwave
trough lifting through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. This
will help to advect a deep moisture axis, characteristic of 2.25
inch PWATs, across south central Mississippi and increase shower and
thunderstorm coverage. Weak 0-3km shear vectors will favor
slow/training storms and combined with the aforementioned PWATs,
saturated forecast soundings and Q-vector convergence will result in
the potential for a few instances of flash flooding, especially
along and south of the I-20 corridor and where heavy rain has fallen
the past few days. As such, went ahead and added a limited area for
flash flooding in the HWO to account for this. Otherwise, cloud
cover and precip coverage will hold high temps to the mid to upper
80s. /TW/
Tuesday through Saturday: The weakness in the mid level ridge will
begin shifting east during this time frame allowing the ridge to
build back in by late week. As this occurs, a daily lessening of
convective activity and cloud cover will be seen as max temperatures
start creeping back up. Heat stress will become a problem once
again by Wednesday as mid 90s heat and mid 70s dewpoints push heat
indices above 105. This looks to continue through Friday, but by
the weekend, troughiness looks to take shape over the eastern half
of the nation with the ridge breaking down somewhat over the area
as northwesterly flow back spread back into the region. A surface
cold front will be associated with the mid level troughiness and
drop through the forecast area Saturday afternoon. Some deep
layered shear will exist in the pre-frontal environment, but
lapse rates at present are feable./26/
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
IFR/MVFR stratus lingering through the morning has
lifted/scattered to VFR categories at most TAF sites. A few sites
have briefly dropped to MVFR ceilings but the prevailing
conditions are expected to remain VFR through the rest of today.
Once again, scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA are expected with a
few areas already ongoing in the Delta and along the Hwy 84
corridor. VCTS cannot be ruled out at any one location this
afternoon and early evening, but activity should dissipate by
24/3z. MVFR ceilings will once again be possible Monday morning at
all TAF sites. /TW/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 73 87 73 88 / 29 62 31 52
Meridian 73 89 73 86 / 20 60 34 57
Vicksburg 73 87 73 90 / 38 60 30 40
Hattiesburg 73 87 72 88 / 34 59 41 59
Natchez 73 86 73 89 / 41 58 30 37
Greenville 73 90 74 91 / 28 58 29 38
Greenwood 73 88 74 89 / 23 58 31 44
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-026-
034.
LA...None.
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1117 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1117 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017
Thunderstorms have pushed southeast into Tennessee, with only a
few rogue showers and storms currently dotting portions of far
southeastern Kentucky. These should exit before midnight, with
generally dry weather expected the rest of the night, as deeper
moisture has exited. Winds have stayed up enough thus far;
however, given the clearing upstream, and plenty of rainfall
having occurred along the Cumberland Valley, have played up the
fog for the rest of the night. Updates have been sent.
UPDATE Issued at 706 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017
Freshened up the POPs through tonight based on the latest radar
and higher resolution model guidance trends. The best instability
gradient has been shifting slightly towards the Tennessee/Kentucky
border with time, with more sustained convection aligning from
north central Tennessee to southwest Tennessee. Scattered
convection has initiated across portions of the Cumberland Valley
in the last 15 minutes or so, and will continue to advertise the
highest POPs down in this area. Did tighten up the gradient of
POPs more so to the north, where the last few runs of the HRRR
has been suggesting more limited activity through this evening.
Updates will be out shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 401 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017
MCV crossing east Kentucky into West Virginia has really zapped
our instability today. We really don`t see much CU out there.
There is a dewpoint/ouflow boundary draped across our far south,
near Middlesboro, where instability is much higher to the south of
this boundary. This would likely be the best area to see
development this evening as dewpoints have remained in the mid to
upper 60s back to the north. Temperatures have also remained a bit
cooler today to the north. All of this together has really
weakened the threat of storms for much of the area. With this in
mind, have opted to drop the flash flood watch for the northern
counties. Best rain chances will remain in the south closer to
that boundary this evening. Should see activity diminish quickly
by mid to late evening with dry weather expected overnight. With
more clearing expected tonight, we could see a good deal of
valley fog tonight. The cold front to the north will drop south
tomorrow afternoon/evening and may allow a few showers or storms
to pop up along the boundary at that time. Instability is rather
weak, but given the middle of the afternoon, can`t rule out an
isolated storm. As the cold front sinks to the south tomorrow
evening, dry weather will be seen through Monday night. We may see
another round of valley fog Monday night pending cloud cover.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 440 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017
At the start of the period, a shortwave trough is expected to be
moving through the Northeast and Mid Atlantic states with an upper
level ridge centered over the Southern Plains region. Height rises
At the surface, a boundary should continue pushing south of the
area with high pressure expected to be centered across the Great
Lakes region and Ontario and building into the region. A period
of height rises should continue into the start of the period as
well.
Mid to upper level as well as surface high pressure centered
north or northeast of the area is expected to dominate through
midweek. The GFS is drier Tuesday into Wednesday compared to the
recent ECWMF runs though the 12Z ECMWF has trended drier. With
high pressure dominating, generally dry weather is expected for
Tuesday into Wednesday though the cap may be weaker near the VA
border and a slight chances right along the VA was used each
afternoon. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal on
both days with with highs in the 80s on Tuesday and upper 80s to
near 90 on Wednesday. Lows will be a bit lower than recent nights
on Tuesday night in the mid 60s.
The high, however, should move east of the area by late Wed into
Wed night, with the boundary that will have stalled south of the
area lifting north as a warm front by late Wed and Wed night
and leading to increase in dewpoints and humidity.
Models continue to indicate a low pressure system moving across
central to eastern Canada during the middle to end of the week. An
associated cold front should drop south of the Great Lakes and to
the OH River on Thursday night. Models continue to indicate the
boundary should move south across the area on Friday in advance of
a shortwave trough. This boundary should continue to push south
of the area Friday night into Saturday. Once the axis of the
shortwave trough moves through on Saturday, height rises should
occur by the second half of next weekend, with high pressure
building toward the area.
With the approaching front and shortwave trough more organized
convection is expected from Thursday afternoon through Friday
evening. Until the shortwave trough axis moves south and east,
isolated convection cannot be ruled out over the weekend. Model
runs vary with timing this and this will ultimately determine if
next weekend ends on a dry note.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 841 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017
A broken line of convection has aligned along the Cumberland
Valley this evening, but this looks to stay south of the TAF
sites. Some isolated convection may threaten the area over the
next few hours, and have maintained VCTS. An upper level
disturbance will swing through the Ohio Valley tonight, perhaps
sustaining some cloud cover. As such, have only allowed for a
window of MVFR fog at SME and LOZ. Should more clearing take
place, then the potential for more dense fog will increase. Most
fog will burn off by 13z, with a return to VFR conditions. Winds
will average around 5 kts or less, mainly out of the west
southwest.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1054 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017
A disturbance across the Tetons will approach the Black hills
tonight. The RAP, HRRR and HRRR exp suggest an isolated thunderstorm
may affect Pine Ridge. Strong heating and a dryline bulge across
Pine Ridge Monday afternoon could spark isolated thunderstorms as
suggested by the NAM.
The temperature forecast uses blended bias corrected data for lows
in the 50s and 60s tonight. The same strategy Monday produces highs
into 90s to low 100s. H700mb rise to 12C at North Platte and
approach 14C at Valentine where warmest highs will occur. Dry air
should keep heat indices below 100 in most areas.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017
H700mb temperatures Tuesday warm to 13-14C at North Platte and 15C
at Valentine. This should support highs of 100 to 105 in these
areas. A heat advisory would eventually be needed in some areas. For
this forecast it would appear to be generally along and east of
highway 83.
Outflow dominant storms should fire near or north of the SD late
Tuesday afternoon. H500mb winds are about 15kt and the storms will
fire along a cold front.
The cold front should drift through the forecast area Tuesday night
and Wednesday. The SREF was signaling heavy rain and was the fastest
model with moisture return. The GFS and NAM are much more modest.
The drought could certainly limit rainfall as it has this month in
many locations. POPs are 30-50 percent Tuesday night through
Wednesday night.
Dry and cooler weather should prevail Wednesday through Sunday with
northwest flow aloft. The subtropical ridge retreats west into the
desert Southwest and h700mb temperature fall to 10-12C supporting
highs in the 80s to lower 90s.
Rain chances are mostly isolated after Wednesday and none of the
models are signaling signficant moisture return. The northwest
flow will be strong and back door high pressure will limit
moisture return until Friday when a cold front will move through.
A second high pressure system moves in Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017
Mostly clear tonight with lows in the 60s. South winds increase
through the day on Monday with gusts to around 20 mph through the
afternoon.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Power
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
942 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017
.UPDATE...
Merged regional radar imagery shows that the line of convection
that extended across northern Louisiana and northeastern Texas has
dissipated just north of the CWA border. Convection has also ended
across the CWA with only isolated areas of drizzle remaining late
this evening. The latest runs of the of the HRRR and RAP are
overdone with regards to convection continuing over central
Louisiana and the Texas Lakes region through the next several
hours. The consensus of the short term model guidance is that
scattered convection could redevelop across areas along and north
of US 190 through early morning. Therefore, this update has removed
categorical PoPs for southern portions of the region through 3
AM. Otherwise, only minor adjustments to hourly grids were needed
to better represent current observations.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 645 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/
AVIATION...
Storms near KLCH continue to fall apart this eve as TSTM moves
into worked over air fm previous storm earlier. KPOE radar has
a weakening line of storms moving down from the north. These
storms will move into northern Tyler...Jasper... and Newton
counties... and in sw Louisiana northern parishes of Vernon and
Rapides. Cloud heights to vary over the next several hours before
lifting and falling apart. Overnight storms look to redevelop
over the south cntrl La coastal areas.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/
SYNOPSIS...
Latest Upper air data, water vapor imagery, and LAPS analysis, as
of 23/18Z, show a mid level disturbance centered over southwest
Mississippi, with shear axis extending westward across the
forecast area into eastern Texas. A very humid air mass is also
found across the region with subtropical moisture trapped below
the shear axis. Surface dew points are in the mid to upper 70s
with 23/18Z GPS-MET and LAPS data showing precipitable water
values from 2.1 to 2.4 inches and Mean RH over 75 percent.
Daytime heating has resulted in the development of clusters of
showers and thunderstorms over the forecast area. With very high
moisture content, main concern with the convection is potential
for torrential downpours with a quick one to two inches of
rainfall in a short period of time bringing minor urban type
flooding. Also, areas that have seen sunshine and not been worked
over from morning convection, are showing CAPE values over 2500
j/kg, so some strong storms are also possible with frequent cloud
to ground lightning and downburst winds to over 30 mph.
Rua
DISCUSSION...
Convection is again expected to diminish during the early evening
hours with loss of daytime heating. Mid level disturbance is
expected to meander around the general region through Monday.
Therefore, nocturnal convection is expected to form over the
coastal waters late tonight, with some activity reaching the
coastline before daybreak, and other nocturnal activity possible
late tonight over northern zones closer to center of disturbance.
Then activity will develop over land during the late morning into
afternoon hours. Expect the best chance and coverage of
convection on Monday to be over the northeast and north zones, or
in the region closer to the center of the mid level
disturbance/shear axis.
By Tuesday, the mid level shear axis weakens and gets pushed off
to the east. A mid/upper level ridge will then build in its place
that will greatly reduce rain chances.
The mid/upper level ridge should hold through Friday, with only
isolate diurnal convection at best expected. With less convection,
more sunshine should be in store resulting in higher daytime
temperatures, and with still a south flow at the surface, very
muggy conditions. Max afternoon heat index readings are expected
to run from 103F 108F degrees, near heat advisory criteria, for
Thursday and Friday.
A little less confidence for the forecast over the weekend, as
differences come about in the possibility of a weak backdoor
surface front moving through the forecast area, as upper level
trough digs down the east coast. GFS is faster with frontal
passage on Saturday, whereas the ECMWF is slower with a frontal
passage on Sunday. Unusual for surface fronts to make it through
the forecast area at the end of July, so will tend with a slower
progression of the frontal boundary, that will call for at-least
chance pops on both Saturday into Sunday.
Rua
MARINE...
A weak surface high continues to ridge across the northern Gulf of
Mexico and this pattern will persist through the end of the week.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Monday, before an upper level disturbance weakens and rain chances
lower for the remainder of the week. As a result, mainly light
onshore flow will continue with relatively low seas. Near any
showers or thunderstorms, winds and seas will be locally higher.
Rua
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 90 73 91 74 / 60 20 50 20
LCH 86 77 91 78 / 80 20 30 10
LFT 87 76 90 77 / 90 30 40 10
BPT 87 77 91 77 / 70 20 20 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...26
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
827 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017
.SHORT TERM...An upper low will remain located just off the
Northern California coast tonight and Monday. This will bring
moisture into the area which combined with instability and forcing
will result in showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile a strong
thermal trough at the surface will continue tonight and tomorrow,
resulting in strong gusty north winds along the coast in the
afternoon and evenings and strong gusty northeast winds over the
coastal mountains.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed east of the
Cascades this evening and storms occurred earlier over Modoc
county. Currently storms are located over far eastern Klamath
county and over Lake county. These storms have had gusty winds
associated with them along with periods of rain and the potential
for small hail. Storms have not developed over the Southern Oregon
Cascades. Models continue to show additional showers and
thunderstorms possible through tonight east of the Cascades.
Showers and thunderstorms may also develop over the Southern
Oregon Cascades late tonight.
On Monday, models remain on track with scattered storms developing
from the Southern Oregon Cascades east and over Modoc county. The
GFS and SREF also continue to show a risk for isolated to
scattered thunderstorms west of the Cascades, especially in
western Siskiyou county and northward into portions of southwest
Oregon.
The upper low is forecast to remain in place Tuesday, drifting
slightly northeast. So expect another day of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. On Wednesday, the low moves inland as an upper
trough and shifts eastward. This will result in the focus for
thunderstorms becoming more over eastern portions of the area,
mainly east of the Cascades. There remains some uncertainty on how
much and where storms will develop as this low moves inland though
due to model variability on the track and timing of this
disturbance as it moves east-northeast.
&&
.AVIATION...24/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR conditions currently prevail over
the area right now, including the waters, and will continue to do so
throughout the TAF period. The exception will be along the coast
where IFR conditions are expected to return this evening and persist
into Monday morning.
Isolated thunderstorms have developed over eastern Modoc and
southeast Lake counties. Near term models keep thunderstorm activity
restricted to this area, progressing it north into Lake county
during the evening and diminishing by midnight in this area.
However, convection will still be possible overnight, focused along
the Cascades. Expect gusty outflow winds in the vicinity of any
thunderstorms. Monday will feature more widespread thunderstorm
activity. /BR-y
&&
.MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Sunday 23 July 2017...A thermal
trough will remain near the coast along with offshore high
pressure. This combination will produce gusty north winds and
steep seas, with gales continuing south of Cape Blanco through
Monday night. Very steep and hazardous seas will develop south of
Reedsport this evening, expanding to nearly all areas by late
tonight. The thermal trough will persist into early next week,
though it will weaken Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will diminish
slightly, but seas will remain elevated as fresh swell remains in
the area. Hazardous seas and small craft conditions will likely
remain in the area through at least Wednesday. /CC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 227 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017/
DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor image clearly shows the upper
low off the California coast which has been advertised to happen the
last couple of days. The upper low is already tapping into some
monsoonal moisture and the result is mid level altocumulus clouds
that are moving from south to north into our area. Typically
altocumulus clouds are a indicator of increasing instability and
moisture and in some cases could be a precursor to thunderstorm
activity. PWATS are higher with this mornings sounding showing 1.02
inches.
As previously mentioned in earlier discussions, the short range high
res HRRR model continues to show first storm development showing up
in Alturas County later this afternoon and migrating north into Lake
and southeast Klamath County early this evening. This has been
consistent with the last several model runs (every hour).
Instability will be greatest over the northern Cascades this
afternoon. 700mb moisture is not as impressive, but PWATS are
expected to increase this afternoon, so still could not rule out
isolated storms late this afternoon.
The upper flow becoming southeast and this in combination with
increasing instability and hotter temperatures will bring an
increased risk for at least isolated thunderstorms mid to late
Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening. Right now, we think the
storms will first develop over the Cascades, Siskiyous and portions
of the eastside, then could drift into portions of the westside,
including the Rogue, Illinois, Applegate and eastern Douglas County
towards Sunday evening. This is because the 700mb flow will be
easterly and 700-500mb flow southeast. So we`ll keep a slight chance
for these areas, but confidence on exact location of storms in these
areas remain low. Meanwhile, the models show greater instability
along the northern Cascades Sunday afternoon and expanding south
Sunday evening, so the chance for thunderstorms are higher.
Confidence is not super high that nothing will happen over the west
side where CAPES exceed 1000 J/kg but inhibition should also remain
somewhat high. Storms may be quite dry over the east while anything
to develop across the west will have much more moisture to work
with. Activity tonight should diminish toward midnight but there`s a
good chance for isolated storms to continue overnight mainly along
the Cascades and portions of the eastside. Of note, SPS lightning
progs show a higher probability of 10 strikes stretching west into
the Rogue Valley. This looks reasonable given the models are showing
some weak shortwaves moving north to northwest around the upper low.
Therefore have expanded the slight change coverage to include the
Rogue Valley. Elsewhere, we have a slight chance of showers.
The models are in general agreement Monday and Tuesday will be the
most active days in terms of thunderstorm coverage and chances. The
upper low will remain just off the California coast, but it will tap
into more moisture on Monday. Instability is still greatest along
and east of the Cascades, but there is some evidence portions of the
westside, including the Rogue and Illinois Valleys could see more
frequent storms. Also there is a better chance for wetting rains as
PWATS are expected to increase with a swath of 1+ inches in these
areas Monday afternoon. Also winds at 700mb will be lighter,
therefore storms could be slow movers.
Nocturnal storms again are possible along with lingering overnight
showers and some remaining cloud cover Monday night as the upper low
slowly moves onshore and multiple shortwaves rotate ahead of it.
Right now it`s unclear how the area of storms shapes up, but we
could see a fair amount of activity.
Tuesday will be another active day with showers and thunderstorms
over most of the area as the upper low slowly drifts northeast into
Northern California. 700 mb winds are expected to be on the light
side (between 5-10 kts) so we`ll once again be dealing with slow
moving storms. Moisture is plentiful, therefore the potential for
wetting storms are high with locally heavy rain possible where
storms are at.
The threat for nocturnal storms exist again Tuesday night as the
upper low moves over our area. Right now, we think the focus for
storms will be over most locations Tuesday evening, then shifting
east into Lake and eastern Klamath and Modoc Counties late Tuesday
night, but details on this could change, so watch for updates.
We do have some lingering thunder chances into Wednesday with
wavering confidence on the low actually moving fully out by then.
However the latest GFS ensembles mostly support a dry day with storm
activity likely off to the east.
Dry weather will return Thursday and could last through next
weekend. The models have come into agreement showing the ridge
building westward into our area in this time period with
temperatures heating back up Friday into next weekend with triple
digit readings in some inland westside locations and lower to mid
90s east of the Cascades. -Petrucelli
FIRE WEATHER...Updated 100 PM Sunday 23 July 2017...The main
concern over the next several days continues to be thunderstorms.
The current Red Flag Warning will be expanded into more of zone 625
this afternoon. The Watch currently in effect for Monday afternoon
and evening will also be expanded in area as well as extended
through 18z Tuesday due to forecast nocturnal thunderstorm activity.
Finally, a watch as been issued for Tuesday afternoon and evening.
The probability and coverage of thunderstorms will peak on Monday
evening and Tuesday evening. The increase in instability will be
accompanied by an increase in moisture and rainfall with the storms
could be near wetting rain.
Thunderstorm potential covers a much larger area than described in
the Fire Weather Warning/Watch. The area reflects forecasted LALs of
3 or more. The thunderstorm threat will diminish Wednesday afternoon
and evening as the upper low moves out to the east of the area and
westerly flow develops over the area. This however will likely lead
to breezy west winds during the second half on next week. -JRS
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for
ORZ617-623>625.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Monday to 11 AM PDT Tuesday for
ORZ617-622>625.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for ORZ617>625.
CA...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ285.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Monday to 11 AM PDT Tuesday for
CAZ284-285.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for CAZ280-281-284-285.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370.
Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT Monday for
PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
CC/CC/CC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
916 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017
.UPDATE...
Tonight...An early start to the convection again today lead to an
early finish. The models don`t show any additional precip
developing overnight, so will go with a dry forecast. The GFS shows
considerable mid/upper level moisture and some convection is
forecast in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, so debris cloudiness is not
expected to clear out completely.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR expected until Monday when convection initiates
again. The HRRR hasn`t been very excited about generating
convection yet, but the atmosphere should remain very moist except
some drying is shown moving up from the south. The 18z GFS came in
a lot drier than the 12z run and lowered POPs across the board. The
00z TAFS showed a lean towards persistence and the local WRF in
having VCTS starting 17z inland and 18-19z along the coast, except
didn`t include KVRB-KSUA yet.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight-Mon...Atlc ridge axis draped across Lake Okeechobee region
will continue to produce a South to southwest flow 10 knots or less,
except slightly above 10 knots in the offshore northern waters. Seas
have been 1-2 feet nearshore and less than 3 feet offshore. The
models show a continuance of lower storm coverage Mon afternoon, but
a few should be strong again.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Forecasts...Lascody
Radar/Impact Wx...Combs/Weitlich
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
708 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
24/00Z issuance...Isolated SHRA/TSRA this evening along the coast
and over the coastal waters, but generally VFR conditions at
terminals with VCTS overnight. Toward sunrise Sunday and through
much of Sunday morning, expect periods of SHRA/TSRA over southern
half of the forecast area, with occasional IFR conditions in and
near convection. Surface winds generally southwest at 6 to 8
knots or less overnight, then around 8 to 12 knots during the day
on Sunday. 12/DS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/
NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...A broad upper level trough
continues to extend from southwest MS through much of LA and into
southeastern TX this afternoon, while another weak trough was
located in the vicinity of southern GA and northern FL. An axis of
moisture extended across much of this region, including central and
southern portions of our CWA, where precipitable water values may be
ranging between 2.0" and 2.25". Despite this presence of deep layer
moisture, overall convective coverage has been low-end scattered at
best across the region so far this afternoon. Still some opportunity
for additional development across the region through the rest of the
afternoon, so will leave chance POPs in place through 00Z.
Convection should gradually diminish in coverage over inland areas
through the early to mid evening hours. However, high resolution and
deterministic model guidance is in agreement that showers and storms
will once again re-develop between 06-12Z over southern/coastal
portions of the forecast area. The past couple of HRRR runs favors a
wet forecast south of a Wiggins to Crestview lines overnight, and a
look at the consensus on MOS guidance also lends confidence to trend
POPs up a bit to 30-40% overnight south of this line. Little change
in overnight lows is expected, with readings in the lower to mid 70s
inland, with mid to upper 70s generally anticipated along the
immediate coast and beaches.
Broad upper troughing will continue to extend from southeast TX
through MS/AL during the day Monday, and a very moist airmass will
remain in place across our forecast area near this feature, with
precipitable water values as high as 2.25". We expect better
coverage of showers and thunderstorms to develop inland through
Monday afternoon, and will continue to carry likely POPs (60-70%)
over most of the area. Highs Monday afternoon will average in the
upper 80s to around 90 across the region. /21
SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...Subtle
differences in the synoptic scale in the handling of an upper
trough over the Lower Mississippi River. The GFS shifts the axis
of the trough quickly southeast, quickly putting the majority of
the forecast area under an area of subsidence on the west side of
the trough. The NAM and ECMWF shift the trough slowly east,
keeping the forecast area under more favorable upper support
longer. This results in an upper ridge centered over the Four
Corners region building farther east quicker over the Southern
Plains and a quicker drying out along with rise in temps. The NAM
and ECMWF solutions, with their slower movement of the upper
trough, result in a cooler, wetter forecast through mid week.
With the 00z GFS ensemble MOS also hinting at a wetter forecast,
have leaned towards the NAM and ECMWF for the final solution. THe
result is a chance of rain above seasonal(scattered to likely
during the day with scattered overnight) into Wednesday, then
transitioning to around seasonal (isolated at night with scattered
during the day) for Wednesday/Wednesday night. Temps transition
from a tighter than seasonal diurnal temp range (upper 80s to
around 90 during the day to low to mid 70s overnight) to a bit
above seasonal for Wednesday as the upper trough moves east of the
forecast area, but the airmass remains seasonably soupy. Highs and
lows a bit above seasonal expected as the Plains ridge begins to
nose east over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Highs in the
low 90s, lows in the low to mid 70s expected.
/16
LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...A temporary return of
seasonal rain chances returns for Thursday into Friday, but
guidance is advertising a shortwave diving into the now over the
East coast upper trough Friday into friday night, with another
Saturday into Sunday. The GFS is advertising this energy deepening
the eastern upper trough than the ECMWF, which allows the Plains
ridge to build southeast over the Western Gulf of Mexico. With
inconsistent timing/path/strength, have went with a blended
approach. Result is temps a bit above seasonal for Thursday
transitioning to below seasonal for the weekend with a chance of
rain transitioning from a bit below seasonal to around seasonal
for the weekend.
/16
MARINE...Additional scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected to re-develop over the marine area again late tonight
into Monday morning, and the pattern of mainly nighttime and morning
showers/storms will continue into midweek. Southwesterly to westerly
winds otherwise increase to 10-15 knots, with seas building to 2 to
3 feet through the middle part of the week. /21
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
854 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017
.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Some storms continue east of I-65 with an upper impulse that is
sweeping through the area. These storms are not as intense as they
were a couple hours ago. Still can`t rule out a gusty storm over
the next hour. HRRR has consistently shown this activity will
continue to decrease over the next few hours. Pops were adjusted
down west of I-65 and north of I-40 where the atmosphere has not
recovered from earlier storms. Only other changes to the forecast
were hourly adjustments to temperatures and dew points.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Upper level impulse will approach from the northwest by late this
afternoon. pva enhancement over the middle TN area will lead to an
increase in shower and tstm activity by 00z. Will include vcts
and prob 30`s to cover the convection. Activity not quite expected
to be widespread enough to warrant tempo. Rainfall chances will
diminish after 06z with fog vsbys dropping to as low as 3-5sm
late. Look for partial haze during the 12z-18z timeframe.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......Reagan
AVIATION........Shamburger
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
757 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 757 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017
Updated forecast based on radar coverage.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017
Monsoon plume still resides over the region though layer specific
humidity values are lower than the past couple days, particularly
across northern and eastern portions of the area. Still enough
moisture present however for diurnally driven convection which is
what models portray. Doesn`t appear to be much forcing
today...though area of cloudiness in the San Luis Valley and
Southwest mountains appear to be related to an upper level shear
axis around southern side of the upper high. So expect evening
thunderstorms to be confined mainly to the mountain areas today with
weak north to northeasterly and even easterly steering currents
generally keeping convection over the mountains. The hrrr runs
suggest an isolated thunderstorm or two could develop over the
Palmer Divide this afternoon as well so will keep some isolated pops
across that area as well. Elsewhere across the plains looks dry. Mtn
convection should wind down this evening with some lingering showers
possible across the southwest mountains overnight in proximity to
deeper moisture associated with the monsoon plume.
Monday looks similar to today, though a few degrees warmer. Once
again mountains and adjacent I-25 corridor will see the best chance
for TSRA. Layer specific humidities increase a bit across the
southwest mountains so this area will be most at risk for heavy rain
produced flash flooding. But certainly all storms both today and
Monday will carry that risk should they impact burn scars, urban
areas or locations with saturated soils. -KT
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017
No big changes to ongoing forecast with weak west to southwest flow
aloft remaining across the area Monday night and Tuesday, as the
upper high across the region continues to build south and east
into the Southern High Plains. Monsoonal moisture continues to
work back into the state through the period, leading to increasing
chances of afternoon and evening showers and storms, especially
across the western half of the area. The latest models are also
indicating a weak disturbance moving across the Great Basin Monday
night, which could keep showers and storms going through early
Tuesday morning, especially along and west of the ContDvd. The
increasing moisture and weak steering flow aloft will continue to
support locally heavy rainfall and the potential for flash
flooding, especially over and near area burn scars. Temperatures
across the area are expected to be near to slightly above seasonal
levels, especially across the eastern plains.
A more active period across all of south central and southeast
Colorado remains on tap for the Wednesday through Thursday
timeframe, as a minor disturbance moving across the northern fringe
of the high across the Northern Rockies sends a cold front across
the eastern plains through the day Wednesday. The front will be a
focus for convection across the eastern plains on Wednesday, with
moist low level upslope expected to persist through the day on
Thursday. This, along with the monsoonal plume across the area, will
lead to widespread afternoon and evening showers and storms with the
greatest coverage expected to be over and near the higher terrain.
Again, the main storm threats will be locally heavy rainfall and the
potential for flash flooding, though cant rule out gusty outflow
winds and small hail throughout the period. With the expected
increase in convection, temperatures look to cool to below seasonal
levels, especially across the eastern plains.
There looks to be a slow warming and drying trend for the end of the
work week and into next weekend, as monsoonal moisture gets shunted
south and west of the area the upper high again retrogrades into the
Desert Southwest.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017
Scattered thunderstorms will continue into the evening hours with an
isolated storm or two possible across El Paso county. Main threat
with thunderstorms with be brief MVFR conditions along with erratic
wind gusts up to 40 kts. KALS will see the highest chance for
-TSRA to occur at the terminal, with KCOS seeing a less likely
VCTS possibility. KPUB will see the lowest probability for
thunderstorms so will keep that TAF site dry. Best chance will be
before 02z...then skies will clear out overnight. Will carry VCSH
in at KALS until 05z as this area will be under the richer
monsoon moisture plume. Monday looks similar to today with most
thunderstorms tied to the mountains. There is a slightly better
chance for one or two to drift off into the adjacent plains
during the late afternoon and evening affecting the KCOS and KPUB
taf sites. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
912 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow-moving cold front will drift southward over the Mid
Atlantic during tonight into Monday. This frontal boundary will
stall and eventually head back north as a warm front later in
the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 910 PM EDT Sunday...
Ill defined weak frontal boundary being pushed along by
shortwave energy aloft is helping to trigger convection in a
pool of residual instability extending from far southwest
Virginia back through Tennessee. HRRR meso guidance has been
handling the situation quite well and will lean heavily on it to
structure POPs overnight. Expect the showers and thunderstorms
to spread eastward early tonight, then fade after crossing the
Blue Ridge after Midnight. The threat for severe weather will be
quite low and rely on outflow boundary interactions in clusters
of storms.
Lows tonight will remain warm with low/mid 70s east of the Ridge
and mid/upper 60s west.
Previous discussion...
Chances of showers and thunderstorms appear lower for Monday
afternoon, and any activity that does develop will be isolated
at most. The best chances for any development appear to be in
the northwest North Carolina mountains. Most locations should
remain dry on Monday, but it will be hot and humid once again by
the afternoon.
Roanoke will more than likely reach its 15th consecutive day of
having a high temperature of 90+ degrees on Monday. At that
point, this streak would take sole possession of fifth place for
the all-time longest streak of 90+ degrees since records began
in 1912. However, this streak would have to reach 22 consecutive
days to tie the longest streak on record that occurred during
June 23rd through July 14th back in 1966.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...
Upper trough over the Northeast at the outset of this period
will be lifting out with a trailing cold front stretching from
just off the Atlantic coast back though central VA. This front
is expected to make progress to the south and east over the
ensuing 24-hour period reaching to about South Carolina where it
is expected to stall out. The surface high over the Great Lakes
will also slide toward the east and should usher in a slightly
drier and cooler air mass into the region. Did not go quite as
aggressive as the model blend in lowering dewpoints but possibly
a 3 to 5 degree F drop by Tuesday night into early Wednesday,
which should be noticeable. Overnight lows Monday range from low
60s NW to low 70s SE. Highs Tuesday near climo norms for late
July l/m 80s NW and low 90s SE. Chances for rainfall will be low
with the only PoPs at slight or higher compressed to the far
southern reaches of the CWA where somewhat better
moisture/instability will reside.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1100 AM EDT Sunday...
Wind flow around high pressure centered over New England will
result in an easterly breeze on Wednesday, bringing cooler
Atlantic air into the region. As such, afternoon high
temperatures will likely be the coolest of any day this week,
ranging from the mid/upper 70s west to low/mid 80s east. The
upslope wind flow will also support spotty showers/thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening, with greater coverage across
the mountains and foothills.
High pressure will shift off the New England coast Wednesday
night, allowing winds to turn more southerly across the mid-
Atlantic by Thursday, making for a return of warmer, more humid
air. Strong daytime heating will support pulse variety showers
and thunderstorms, a few of which will likely become strong for
brief periods of time during the afternoon and evening.
A cold front will make its way across the mid Atlantic on
Friday, triggering more organized/widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity. Latest run of the weather forecast models
indicate that the front will clear our area to the south by
Saturday morning, bringing drier air in its wake. Have therefore
lowered rain chances for next weekend, though isolated
showers/storms cannot be ruled out.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 735 PM EDT Sunday...
The main short wave associated with the upper trough moving
slowly across the Great Lakes was moving into the CWA from the
west this evening, triggering another more significant round of
convection. Following the HRRR and other short range/HIRES
models, would expect convection to track into far southwest
VA/southern WV over the next few hours before dissipating toward
midnight near the Blue Ridge. Will include VCTS at BLF and BCB
and VCSH at LWB/ROA until better expectation of how far thunder
will go before including further east. Expect mostly VFR
ceilings, except brief basically unpredictable MVFR-IFR ceilings
in evening thunderstorms.
Overnight, upslope westerly flow behind the upper trough should
result in MVFR cigs developing from LWB to BLF and possibly BCB
as well, breaking up and becoming scattered 14Z-15Z with VFR
expected the rest of the day. Confidence in any convection
Monday afternoon is too low to include in the TAFs at this time.
Have not included fog at this time because of cloud cover, wind,
and precipitation expected overnight. Will need to watch across
the Piedmont.
Winds will remain WSW-WNW 5-10kts through most of the TAF valid
period, but low end gusts are expected after 14Z Monday mainly
west of the Blue Ridge.
Medium confidence in ceilings through the TAF valid period.
Medium to high confidence in visibilities through the TAF valid
period.
High confidence in wind speed/direction through the TAF valid
period.
Aviation Extended Discussion...
A slow-moving cold front should slowly sag south of our region
by Monday afternoon into Monday night. This frontal boundary
should stall to the south by Tuesday and eventually return
northward as a cold front later in the week. Although convection
should become more isolated for most of this period, the weather
patten will still remain unsettled to some extent. High pressure
wedging southward on Wednesday could bring some MVFR/IFR
ceilings, which should quickly vanish by Thursday. Aside from
any early morning fog and isolated convection, VFR conditions
should prevail through most of this week.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...MBS/RAB
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PW/RAB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
105 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS...Wet weather pattern is expected to begin developing
tonight as a significant push of monsoon moisture spreads northward
across the area. Periods of showers and storms can be expected
across much of the area tonight through Tuesday night, especially
across northwest Arizona and southern Nevada, before a drying trend
begins mid to late this week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday
Convection is slow to get going this afternoon but starting to see
some better organized activity across the southern Great Basin. A
couple showers are also underway near the Spring and Hualapai
mountains. Continued destabilization should result in activity
increasing later this afternoon, with most widespread activity
across Lincoln and central Nye counties. By this evening, attention
will shift to more robust activity across Northern Arizona which
will gradually drift westward through the overnight. Some of this
activity will have the potential for very heavy rainfall given
Precipitable Water Values of 1.25-1.75 creeping northward. Given the
relatively slow storm motion and anomalous moisture, went ahead with
a Flash Flood Watch for Mohave county through the night. In fact,
latest runs of the HRRR break out widespread convection across
Mohave county and far eastern San Bern county after midnight, and
this seems reasonable given an approaching wave moving in from
Arizona.
Tomorrow the moisture will surge northwestward across Southern
Nevada and Eastern California, with near record Precipitable water
values pushing into the region. Was inclined to issue a Flash Flood
Watch for far southern Nevada and Eastern San Bern county, but
considering potential sky cover issues and coordination with the AZ
offices, have held of for now. One feature of note is the GFS
brings a vort max northward up the Colorado River valley tomorrow,
reaching near Lake Mead by tomorrow evening. This could be a focus
of convection tomorrow, and if we can get enough daytime heating in
advance of this feature, exceptionally heavy rainfall will be a
possibility. Alternatively, if we wake up to abundant clouds, we
may have a hard time generating strong convection and hence, we`d
have a reduced flash flood threat. Shower and thunderstorm activity
will tend to lift north tomorrow night but it will remain fairly
moist and unstable across southern Nevada and far northern Arizona
well into Tuesday.
Stay tuned for the possibility of additional Flash Flood Watch
issuance`s and be prepared for locally heavy rainfall with any
thunderstorm activity that develops over the coming days. Just keep
in mind the convective evolution will be highly dependent on cloud
cover trends. In addition to the rain chances, increased clouds
will work to keep temperatures below normal for the eastern two-
thirds of the forecast area Monday through Wednesday.
.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday.
Gradual drying and warming is expected for the Wednesday and
Thursday as weak southwest flow returns to the region. Enough
moisture is likely to remain in place for afternoon showers/storms
over favored high terrain.
By Friday, high pressure once again pushes back to a favorable
location near the Four Corners, allowing for a moist southeasterly
flow into the region. However, this is where guidance begins to
diverge, with the GFS keeping the high and favorable flow well into
the weekend while the ECMWF is significantly different, pushing the
high to near Reno and keeping much of the moisture to the south of
Las Vegas. For now I`ve split the difference, increasing dew points,
and PoPs over the area, but with a emphasis on areas south of Las
Vegas.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated thunderstorms will again be possible today,
mainly across the Sierra...Southern Great Basin...and Northwest
Arizona. A stray storm or two can be expected in the Spring and
Sheep range as well. An influx of moisture will arrive tonight and
tomorrow across Southern NEvada and far eastern California,
resulting in an increase in humidity and cloud cover, and better
chances for thunderstorms with wetting rains. Conditions will
gradually dry out midweek onward, with thunderstorms decreasing in
coverage each day. Temperatures will be near normal to somewhat
below normal through Wednesday, before returning to slightly above
normal late in the week. &&
.HYDROLOGY...
Creeks, streams and rivers in northern Inyo County have shown
decreasing flows over the last couple of days. However, some road
closures continue in the area. Bishop Creek Bypass and Big Pine
Creek Bypass continue to be utilized to minimize flows through
Bishop and Big Pine. Remember, never drive through flooded
roadways or around barricades. Also, pastureland or farmland
adjacent to creeks, streams or rivers could experience areas of
standing water.
&&
.AVIATION...For McCarran...East to southeast winds under 10 knots
are expected through early this evening. Confidence in winds later
this evening and overnight is low. They may try to trend toward
typical night time south/southwest drainage at 10 knots or less but
several forecast models are indicating potential for a stronger push
of southeast winds due to thunderstorms over northwest Arizona for
the late evening hours. Mainly southeast winds around 10 knots are
expected Monday. Thunderstorm chances will be increasing in the Las
Vegas Valley Monday with a chance of storms at the terminal mainly
Monday afternoon and evening. Cigs with storms could drop to 5 kft
briefly with stronger storms. Otherwise cigs will mainly be AOA 10
kft.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Most areas will see south to southeast winds 5-15 knots
through Monday. Showers and storms are expected across Mohave and
Lincoln counties once again along with the higher elevations of
Clark County and the southern Sierra through this evening. Overnight
storms will be possible tonight into early Monday mainly across
southern Mohave, and southeast San Bernardino counties. Gusty and
erratic winds can be expected near any thunderstorms. Thunderstorm
chances will spread across the entire area as the day progresses
Monday. Cigs with stronger storms could drop to around 5 kft.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather and especially flood impacts the next
several days as an active monsoon pattern unfolds.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Outler
LONG TERM....Wolcott
AVIATION...Harrison
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