Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/15/17

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1150 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry air will continue to move into the region for the next 24 to 48 hours. This will push all the rain to our east. A mean 500mb trough will dominate our weather this weekend and early next week. Thus Saturday to Thursday should be a relatively dry with near to slightly below normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... FF threat ended and Watch was allowed to expire on time at 10 PM. Slow moving and training cells made for a soggy evening in parts of the Lower Susq, and HRRR indeed foresaw this from the mid to late afternoon runs. Front pushes east of the CWA after midnight, taking lingering scattered shower activity there with it. 5H trough axis swinging through western PA late this evening maintaining a cluster of showers and thunderstorms east of Pittsburgh, and these are headed into Somerset County presently. Will keep sct pops going there for the next several hours. Some heavy downpours are still possible there. Some fog is expected in the places where the heavy rain has fallen, especially in the SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Front pushes through all of CWA tonight but only very slowly. This will change the airmass, but should bring an end to this humid and wet pattern. High pressure builds in on Saturday with comfortable temperatures and humidity levels. Some fog is expected in the places where the heavy rain has fallen, especially in the SE. Saturday looks like a great day for just about anything. Only a isolated shower or two is possible in the nrn tier. Maxes should be below normal and dewpoints should be more comfortable, but not super-dry. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tranquil weather continues on Sunday before another short wave drops out of the Great Lakes for the beginning of the work week. Scattered precipitation will enter the far northwest later Sunday night and progress across the state through Monday. As the upper trough pivots toward the east coast, a chance of rain showers continues into the first half of Tuesday. By Wednesday, a 596DM H5 high will move into the lower Ohio valley and will bring dry and warm conditions back to the area. As this upper high moves very slowly, dry conditions continue through the end of the week. However, a boundary remains just to our north which may provide a chance for some moisture if it were to waggle to the south. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Showers in vicinity of KMDT/KLNS will dissipate through 06z. Another batch of convection (with a bit of thunder) will slide south of KJST/KAOO through 06z before diminishing. A front pushes east of the CWA overnight, which will put an end to any lingering shower activity. But low ceilings will persist at KLNS where moist SE low level flow hangs on the longest. In addition, though dewpoints are slowly dropping a good bit of low level moisture remains in place as a weak subsidence inversion works in from the Ohio Valley. These factors will contribute to a developing cloud deck that will bring restrictions to the NW half of CWA into mid morning Sat. In addition, expect some areas of fog in places where heavier rain fell earlier, especially in the SE. After some morning fog/clouds, cooler drier air and mixing will ultimately bring VFR conditions on Saturday. .OUTLOOK... Sat...AM low cigs likely mainly BFD/JST. Fog impacts likely central/SE. Sun...AM fog poss BFD. Otherwise no sig wx. Mon...Cig restrictions poss NW. Sct TSRA impacts areawide. Tue...Sct tsra impacts east. Wed...No sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Grumm/Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Ross/Tyburski AVIATION...RXR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017 ...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1100 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017 WV imagery indicates a broad upper level ridge of high pressure located across the Intermountain West and the Western High Plains. Near the surface, high pressure is shifting eastward across the Central Plains. && .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017 Very moist atmosphere across SW KS as of midday, with dewpoints running well into the 60s to near 70, and precipitable water over 1.5 inch. 12z NAM maintains 65-70 dewpoints into this evening, and increases PW further to near 1.9 inch. Very weak pressure gradient this afternoon as a weak frontal boundary continues to meander across the region. Instability will continue to mount through the afternoon, with NAM increasing CAPE to near 2000 J/kg with lifted index of -5C. Flow at all levels is weak (NAM forecast at 500 mb this evening is 1 kt at Dodge City). With such a moist airmass and such weak flow, scattered slow-moving thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight will be capable of very heavy (locally flooding) rainfall. Model consensus is the most likely area to see this activity will be the western 1/2 of the CWA into tonight. All models capture a vorticity max drifting around the CO/KS border into this evening. 12z NAM/GFS both suggest lift from this feature will incite convective initiation across the western zones after 4 pm. Further, 12z NAM depicts a slow-moving MCS that drifts into SW KS overnight. Increased pops some to 50% for these western areas, but may increase again to likely. Also, included heavy rain wording in the grids. The risk of severe hail/wind is very low, with such weak flow and saturated profiles. Strong pulse convection along the old frontal boundary may produce wind gusts near 55 mph before sunset, mainly along the OK/KS border, as the latest HRRR iterations are starting to suggest. Areas of showers likely to continue all night with thick cloud cover, keeping temperatures in the 68-72 range through sunrise Saturday. Saturday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours during peak heating. All models show persistent compact vorticity max wallowing around the western zones through Saturday, as well as the remnant frontal boundary remaining in the vicinity, offering a source of surface convergence. Atmospheric profiles of wind and moisture change little from Friday, with more slow-moving heavy rain producing storms expected. ECMWF in particular depicts an impressive MCS across the western zones Saturday afternoon/night with the potential for very heavy/flooding rainfall. Will need to monitor for the exact location of this MCS evolution over the next 24 hours. Clouds, moisture and convection will hold temperatures a bit below mid-July normals on Saturday, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017 Sunday...Chance pops/scattered coverage of thunderstorms still warranted, as atmosphere remains nearly steady-state with a moist boundary layer and weak flow throughout. Spurious vorticity max, or weakness embedded in the upper ridge aloft, will continue to meander over/near the western zones through Sunday. For such a small feature, models are showing amazing agreement with this disturbance. Scattered thunderstorms will favor the western/SW zones Sunday afternoon and evening, with again locally heavy rainfall and minimal severe threat expected. With the high pressure ridge weakened aloft, temperatures will continue to trend a few degrees below normal, in the upper 80s to near 90. Starting Monday, hot upper anticyclone begins to consolidate over the central plains, putting the kibosh on rain chances and sending temperatures upwards. Dry weather will prevail Monday through Thursday as subsidence dominates. After coordinating with neighbors, removed the spurious pops offered by GFS/superblend during the Tuesday timeframe, but kept 14% in case something can get through the western periphery of the ridge. Starting next Friday, 12z ECMWF shows an interesting potential evolution, with the upper high splitting into two centers, one over the eastern Pacific, and the other near Florida. The weakness between the two highs may allow for a pathway for Mexican monsoonal moisture to makes its way toward Kansas. After a dry spell for much of next week, rain chances likely to ramp up again next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017 Scattered thunderstorms will impact the Liberal terminal at the beginning of this period and will gradually shift northward toward Garden City and Dodge City through the evening hours. Visibility reductions due to heavy rain along with gusty winds to 30-35 knots will be the main impacts. At this time, do not anticipate the storms making it as far north as Hays but this will have to be watched. Convection will diminish later tonight with VFR conditions prevailing into Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 68 89 67 89 / 40 30 40 30 GCK 66 87 65 88 / 50 40 50 30 EHA 61 89 61 87 / 30 40 50 30 LBL 68 90 67 88 / 40 40 50 30 HYS 67 88 66 91 / 20 10 10 10 P28 71 92 70 92 / 30 20 20 20 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJohnson SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Gerard
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
940 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper trough of low pressure over the Great Lakes will move east tonight and move across northern New England Saturday while weak low pressure moves to our south. Scattered showers and widely scattered thunderstorms will be along and in advance of this trough tonight and Saturday. As the trough exits Saturday night clearing and drier weather can be expected that will last into Sunday. Another trough of low pressure approaches from the west late Sunday and and stalls to the west of New England Monday and Tuesday with more unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 940 PM Update... Another update to adjust PoPs across the region. Showers are scarce at the moment with some moving through the Mid Coast region of Maine and more over VT and NY along a stalled front. Convection continues to weaken as it moves east. Stratus and fog were developing across the region with plenty of moisture still in place. Have lowered PoPs to slight to chance PoPs for the most part as even the CAM models are having a hard time with precipitation placement and movement. Other parameters were adjusted to reflect these ideas. 735 PM Update... Forecast was updated to adjust PoPs and weather grids based on latest CAM models and radar data. Some isolated thunderstorms are still occurring across the region with the biggest area of convection over the Moosehead Lake region. Additional cells were still forming over NY State as well as VT. Any precipitation has the potential to be heavy but basic average QPF amounts will be light. Cloud cover and dew points will keep temperatures up with readings only dropping a few degrees by morning. Previous discussion... An upper trof over the eastern Great Lakes will slowly move east tonight. Meanwhile the weak ridging off the coast will continue the light moist maritime onshore flow. The HRRR model brings the developing convection over central and upstate NY this afternoon into NH by 00z and then moves a large area of convection across the rest of the cwa by later in the evening. Will go with the likely POPS offered by models for tonight. Due to the shallow nature of the sfc maritime air mass over the region, the elevated convection developing to the west should be able to hold together as it moves across the region tonight. Will have some enhanced wording for some heavy rain and gusty winds in some of the storms through 06z tonight. Due to very little ventilation and plenty of low level moisture, will also have the mention of some developing fog overnight. Used a blend of models with more weight on the NAMDNG guidance for overnight lows which should be in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The upper trof moves over the area Sat and then exits northern New England to the east Sat night. Scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm will accompany the trof Saturday but come to an end by Sat evening. Preference of better detail from the NAMDNG model for max/min temps was used. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... An upper level trough will approach from the west on Sunday. However, short wave ridging overhead should keep most if not all showers/thunderstorms to our west Sunday. The trough gets a bit closer on Monday so the chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase in western and central zones, but still should be the hit or miss variety. The same thing can be said for Tuesday but the shower and thunderstorm activity should be a bit more widespread with better forcing for ascent moving on in. Thereafter, we should have a fair weather day on Wednesday before another short wave trough approaches and brings renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms for the end of the week. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /through Saturday/...Variable conditions mostly MVFR to IFR tonight into late Sat in stratus clouds, sct -shra, and patchy fog. From 22z-08z wdly sct -TSRA also possible. Conditions improve to VFR aft 21z Sat. Long Term....Mainly VFR expected Sunday and Monday expected although some stratus and fog may develop on the coastal plain during the two nights as onshore flow develops. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Saturday/...Winds and seas to remain below SCA criteria through Sat night. Long Term...A weak pressure pattern looks to keep sub-sca conditions around through early next week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Hanes SHORT TERM...Marine LONG TERM...Ekster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
925 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017 .UPDATE... Updated for evening discussion. && .DISCUSSION... Cleaned up some of the POPs to reflect current radar situation. Otherwise, not a lot of changes have been made to this update. During the late overnight period expect some patchy fog developing in the southern part of the Delta due to low level moisture content. The remainder of tonights storms will continue to have some brief heavy downpours and gusty conditions, but now that the daytime heating has stopped there shouldn`t be any more amplification for the severe threat. /12/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Saturday: Convection has been slower to get going today as compared to yesterday. With lesser convective debris, will probably see convection linger somewhat longer into the evening, but should be about gone by midnight. HRRR is showing better convective development moving into southeast sections during the next few hours which seems reasonable considering the congested cumulus in that area presently. No real changes to the pattern in the short term as mid level trough/shear axis remains colocated with deep moisture (PWs ~ 2 inches) across the forecast area. This airmass will continue, once again Saturday, to convect quite easily with light low level convergence or differential heating boundaries being more than adequate for initiation. Abundant cloud cover/convection will make it difficult for max temperatures to climb much above 90./26/ Saturday night through Friday. Much of the upcoming work week will be influenced by a building upper ridge and an overall reduction in precip chances. The result from that will be warming MaxTs as we progress through the week. Before we warm up, the region will be still in the grasp of high PW air and a general mid/upper shear axis. This will continue to promote better than average rain/storm chances. Much of this will be diurnally driven and for Saturday evening, look for linger rain chances as the daily cycle wanes. For Sunday, the deepest moisture will be located across central/souther portions of the forecast area. Models indicate a mid/upper level short wave to push southward across the area during the later part of the afternoon. This feature is well defined with a cool pocket aloft and a decent area of potential vorticity. This is also associated with a slight increase in flow aloft and fairly stout mid/upper drying in the wake of the wave. In all, this will promote better forcing through a deeper layer. This looks to also link up better with increasing instability and will likely result in stronger storms than we`ve been seeing. At this time, we will evaluate this with a couple more runs before introducing any threats in the HWO. On Monday, increasing heights and southward pushing deep dry air will begin to limit rain chances. This will mostly be focused across the northern half. Best rain chances will exist across the south half Monday afternoon. By Tue and into the remainder of the week. More influence from the upper ridge/dry air will help to keep overall rain chances lower for much of the forecast area. As for temperatures, Sunday and Monday will likely continue to hold at or just below the typical High Temps for mid July. However, look for readings to push more into the 92-95 degree range for the remainder of the weeks as less precip and more insolation become the primary elements in the forecast. At this time, Wed-Fri will be a period to watch for increased heat stress. /CME/ && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF discussion: Scattered SHRA/TSRA are lingering a bit later into the evening than on previous days, but they will begin to taper off shortly after sunset. VFR conditions will prevail through much of this time frame, outside of brief ceiling/visibility reductions in storms. Patchy areas of MVFR visibility or low stratus will be possible early Saturday morning, with somewhat greater chances where rain fell today. Then, VFR conditions will prevail during the daytime hours with scattered storms developing once again during the day. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 73 89 73 89 / 48 52 27 61 Meridian 72 90 73 88 / 52 47 34 64 Vicksburg 74 90 74 90 / 72 55 32 57 Hattiesburg 72 90 72 89 / 45 53 34 70 Natchez 72 88 73 88 / 68 57 35 69 Greenville 74 90 74 91 / 23 54 31 31 Greenwood 74 89 73 90 / 32 57 29 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 12
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
641 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017 .AVIATION... VFR with light southerly winds trending variable after sunset. Very isolated SHRA and TS about 60W of PVW at 630 PM will drift NW and remain well outside of the terminals. Could see spotty TS redevelop Sat afternoon, mainly near CDS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 258 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017/ DISCUSSION... Gulf moisture associated with an inverted trough across the Big Bend area is slowly pushing northward and eroding mid level dryness that has been present for some time over the FA. Monsoonal moisture extending northeastward out of NM has remained mostly in place through the day across the northwestern TX Panhandle. Dewpoints are beginning to very slowly climb higher mostly across our southern zones as convective outflow pushing northward from a decaying MCV south of Midland. The slight increase in moisture as well as low level instability is being show by late morning development of a CU field that has limited vertical development. WV imagery shows a hint of a weak disturbance across the northern half of the FA which is helping to produce isolated showers along an area of weak surface convergence. The HRRR appears to be picking up on this and does show some popcorn showers through 00Z across much of the region. The upper ridge dominating the western half of the CONUS will flatten over the weekend as an upper level trough pushes across Canada. This will weaken the ridge allowing for slight height falls. This will give us a window of possibility for unorganized convective development mainly by Sunday. A cold front currently across the central Plains to is progged to push slowly southward as the ridge weakens with the front approaching western OK by tomorrow afternoon. Outflow from convection along the front could be enough to trigger isolated to widely scattered storms across the northern Rolling Plains by tomorrow evening. The forecast for storms on Sunday still remains unclear and will ultimately depend on convection that may occur tomorrow. Surface lift will be dependent on remnant outflow boundaries and forecasting their locations is anything but possible. Rain chances will be continued area wide for Sunday with the highest pops (chance) across the Rolling Plains closest to the previously mentioned front. Next week will start off with increasing thicknesses as the ridge fully builds back in overhead thus hindering most rain chances. The ECMWF and GFS continue to differ with the upper level pattern by mid week with the GFS keeping the upper ridge mostly in place leaving us high and dry. The ECMWF is much more forgiving with the ridge pushing eastward allowing monsoonal moisture to push eastward into the FA. This would allow for "cooler" temperatures as well as continued rain chances. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 93
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
819 PM PDT Fri Jul 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Tonight into Saturday scattered thunderstorms will move through eastern Washington and north Idaho. Breezy conditions develop later Saturday across the Cascades. This will be followed by slightly cooler, dry and continued breezy weather Sunday into early next week. A dry warming trend will begin by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Updated the forecast to delay the timing of thunderstorms tonight. The HRRR model has been consistent with convection firing late tonight or early Saturday morning over the forecast area. A cluster of thunderstorms have formed over eastern Oregon. This is the convection we will need to watch as it moves closer to eastern WA and the ID Panhandle. Models are in pretty good agreement that thunderstorms will hold off until after 200 AM. I do not anticipate needing to make any changes this evening to our current suite of Red Flag Warnings. /SVH && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: A shortwave disturbance will push north and enter the region late tonight after 09Z. There will be some mid level instability with convective cells expected to fire ahead of this disturbance. There is model disagreement with how unstable the atmosphere will be, but some thunderstorm development is expected. Best chances for thunderstorms will be east of a line from KMWH to KOMK with slightly higher confidence that thunderstorms will impact TAF sites at KLWS and KPUW. Base of thunderstorms will be high at around 12 kft agl with a dry sub-cloud layer that may result in enhanced wind gusts near thunderstorms to around 30 kts. /SVH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 64 92 60 81 54 84 / 10 20 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 58 91 58 79 51 84 / 10 20 10 0 0 0 Pullman 60 89 56 78 48 83 / 20 20 10 0 0 0 Lewiston 67 97 63 87 57 90 / 20 20 10 0 0 0 Colville 55 95 53 82 48 86 / 10 20 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 51 88 52 78 45 82 / 0 20 10 0 0 0 Kellogg 57 89 54 77 49 82 / 20 20 10 0 0 0 Moses Lake 60 96 58 85 53 87 / 20 20 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 66 91 62 82 56 86 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Omak 60 95 57 84 52 88 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...Red Flag Warning from 4 PM to 11 PM PDT Saturday for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677). Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT Saturday for East Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington Palouse and Spokane Area (Zone 674). && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
843 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 839 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017 Updated short term grids, mainly pops and clouds, but all grids to reflect latest radar and satellite trends. This resulted a big pop and cloud cover increase under the current MCV moving across the region. Precip will become increasingly more stratiform and continue for a while. UPDATE Issued at 619 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017 Updated grids to increase pops in Pueblo/Fremont/southern El Paso counties where colliding outflow boundaries are expected to induce/congeal thunderstorm development through the evening which could result in heavy rains across this area. Will be monitoring these areas closely for localized flash flood potential, particularly urban areas, areas with saturated soils and burn scars. -KT && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 308 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017 Currently... Weak, broad closed low at mid levels was noted just east of the Gunnison region at 2 pm this afternoon. Most abundant shower activity was generally in this region, although scattered to numerous showers was noted over a large part of the mountainous area of southern Colorado. Storms were also just beginning to develop over parts of the plains, mainly along the I-25 corridor and along a sfc trough axis that extended from near Branson CO northeastward towards the Lamar region. Moisture was abundant over the entire region. SPC analysis ranged from 1.5 to 1.0 g/kg over the plains (with the bette moisture near the border). Values of 0.5 - 1.0 were noted over the higher terrain. CAPE values ranged between 500-1000 J/KG. Rest of today into tonight... Deep, albeit weak, upslope flow will continue through the afternoon and evening as the broad weak closed low moves slowly east-northeast. Conceptually, areas generally east of US-50 should see the highest risk of heavy convective rains the rest of this afternoon and into the evening. This would place the Junkins/Hayden and Waldo burn scars in the highest risk for flash flooding. HRRR hints at locally heavy rain these regions. As the low lifts off the east-northeast, southwesterly flow at 700 develops later this evening south of US-50, with southeast 700 mb low north of us50. This will allow a trough axis to extend generally to the east of the 500 low, and this may be the region where the best chance of rain will develop later this evening on the plains. by later tonight, the broad mid level low should be over the greater Limon region. Most precip will likely dissipate over the region later tonight but some showers will likely continue in the vicinity of the low center. Lots of clouds will linger over the region tonight. Tomorrow... Monsoon moisture will remain over the region tomorrow. Several weak disturbance are noted in the guidance products so anticipate scattered to numerous showers and storm once again in the mountains with scattered POPs over the plains. With abundant moisture, locally heavy rains will continue to be a threat over the region. Guidance does show that quite a bit of moisture will be over the plains, so we could see more widespread activity over this region. /Hodanish .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 308 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017 ...Drier over the Plains but Monsoon Still Active over the Mountains Sunday through Friday... The monsoon will take a bit of a breather over the plains Sunday through Friday but remain fairly active over the mountains through the period. It looks like the monsoonal "depression" that is swirling over us today and will continue to do so through Saturday, moves primarily east of Colorado Sunday, allowing some drier air to move into the state. There will still be adequate moisture for daily convection over and near the mountains each day, but it looks like quite a bit less activity over the plains in the presence of the drier air. Still some isolated activity but not the widespread stuff that will be with us through Saturday. So, a drier period for the plains. The mountains will remain active through the period, still remaining on the eastern edge of the monsoonal moisture flow. The combination of daily heating and lifting from the terrain should be enough to produce daily rounds of slow moving, pulse convection. Primary concerns will continue to be heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds with some spots of mainly small hail. And, of course, with slow moving, heavy rain producing storms, there will be the potential for flash flooding, particularly on area burn scars. We will need to remain especially cognizant of the flash flood risk for the next 6-8 weeks as we move through the monsoon season. This time of year lends itself to repeated days of heavy rain over the same locations and very efficient rainfall runoff processes i.e. less evaporation and infiltration and more direct runoff. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 308 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017 Deep monsoon moisture is over the region. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be likely during the afternoon and evening hours at the 3 taf sites; kpub, kals and kcos. If one of these storms moves over the terminals, the brief mvfr.ifr conditions will be possible along with gusty winds. In addition, if a storm does drop quite a bit of rain over the terminal, then some morning low clouds/fog will also be possible. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...LW SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...LW AVIATION...HODANISH