Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/05/17


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
601 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2017 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE Through 03-6Z, the main impact to TAF locations will be a combination of convective activity and outflows for KTCC/KROW/KLVS with gusty gap winds developing at KABQ/KAEG this evening. The strongest convection over the Eastern Plains is expected to move out of the forecast area by 02Z, with lingering showers and isolated TSRA through the evening hours. In the Rio Grande Valley, gap winds should begin at KSAF by 01Z and at KABQ/KAEG about 03-04Z. Winds are expected to gust up to about 30kts, although gusts at KABQ to 35kts cannot be ruled out. Winds should begin to diminish about 08Z. In the latter end of the TAF period, the main axis of convection will shift westward to the Rio Grande Valley. Some showers may start on the higher terrain as early at 18Z, so VCSH is included at KLVS and TAF locations in the Middle RGV. 54/Fontenot && .PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2017... .SYNOPSIS... High pressure aloft strengthening west of New Mexico this Independence Day will continue to build as it shifts eastward through mid-week. The center of the upper high will likely remain in the vicinity of the Four Corners region Wednesday through Saturday. Strong daytime heating combined with residual moisture will support daily rounds of mainly afternoon and early evening thunderstorms favoring the mountains and western half of the state. Daytime temperatures will remain well above average but trend closer to seasonal average late week. && .DISCUSSION... Severe storms have impacted portions of central and/or eastern New Mexico every day since June 22nd and another bout of isolated severe storms expected through mid-evening across the far east. Axis of 500mb ridge oriented NW to SE from west-central UT to near the southwest corner of NM. Water vapor imagery showing the next ripple/mid-level thermal trough in the northwest flow translating southeast from the Colorado Front Range with region of enhanced upper-level divergence from Raton Mesa toward northern EC plains. Latest HRRR suggests a couple of loosely organized convective clusters rolling across the NE and EC plains between 4-8pm before exiting into TX. Will trend PoP/wx trends toward this timing and provide some enhanced detail given Independence Day festivities. Other area of concern will be across the the WC/SW high terrain where high-based drier shower/t-storm activity could produce localized strong winds. Going into Wednesday, appears two distinct mid-level height centers will continue within the large-scale Four Corners ridge: one vicinity of the NM/AZ line southwest of Gallup and another to become the dominant one over southwest CO. Overall, storm coverage should continue to trend downward as compared to today with further limited potential for severe storms in the east as mid- to upper level steering flow veers and becomes more north to south. Diurnally- driven convection over/near higher terrain will tend to favor central/western areas late in the day and evening. Will again watch for isolated high-based late day virga bombs. Otherwise, very warm to hot temperatures will be several degrees hotter in the west and only slightly cooler in the east. The GFS now trending closer to dreaded the -5C isotherm at 500mb near the NM/CO line north of Taos by Thursday PM, while the NAM is a shade cooler. This strengthening subsidence inversion may hinder deep moist convection more than currently expected. Otherwise, Thursday should play out very similar to Wednesday if not slightly hotter with even fewer storms especially NC areas. The Four Corners high will remain in place Friday into early next week. However, models similar showing the high contracting and shifting a bit farther west during this period. At the same time, atmospheric moisture content trends upward and any slight mid- level cooling would prove very favorable and support a general uptick in storm coverage late week into the weekend. Steering flow will again favor central/western areas and perhaps we are on the verge of losing the influence of westerlies. KJ && .FIRE WEATHER... In a pattern typical for early July, high pressure is becoming the dominant upper level feature with occasional moisture intrusions from the east projected to continue. Currently, high pressure has nudged a bit farther northwest, separating into two centroids, one northwest and one southeast of the Four Corners. Storm coverage has stayed very low for most areas due to the prevalent dry air in the boundary layer, but a weak upper level short wave coupled with a surface wind shift has induced some stronger, wetter storms in the northeastern to east central plains. Temperature and humidity has mostly followed persistence, staying close to yesterday`s readings. Outside of the plains, storms have been predominantly defined by gusty outflow winds rather than rain. Tonight as storms trend down in the east, an easterly flow will beyond the central mountain chain through Wednesday morning. Gusty east canyon winds are expected in central NM tonight while low layer moisture advances west toward the Rio Grande. With the moisture seeping farther west tonight, thunderstorm chances will increase along and east of the central mountain chain Wednesday. High pressure aloft will likely consolidate north of the Four Corners, but will still be broadly over the Rockies, steering storm activity in NM on a north to south or northeast to southwest trajectory. Temperatures will only see small drops in the eastern half of the state Wednesday, and Haines values would decrease in the eastern half where humidity will be slightly higher. Into the remainder of the forecast period, the pattern will continue to be defined by high pressure over the Rockies while low layer moisture sloshes around the plains, and diffuse mid to upper level subtropical moisture holds over the central to western zones of NM. The absence of westerly flow will signify the onset of the monsoon season, and storm coverage will begin to shift to the central and western zones of NM. Temperatures appear seasonal through this time and humidity will make a slow trend upward day-by day. Prevailing winds will typically be from the east or south in many zones, with local storm outflows being the primary wind concerns. 52 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 41
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
944 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 933 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Lingering convection is pushing its way out of the southern James River Valley. Strongest convection will move through Ypsilanti and Montpelier in the next 15 to 30 minutes. Farther south over Dickey and Lamoure counties, any convection that has developed has not survived the stronger cap. Strongest instability remains over far southeast ND and it`s possible something could still develop over far eastern portions of these counties over the next hour, but it would be short lived over Bismarck CWA and the probability also decreases with increasing inhibition with loss of daytime heating. Made some minor adjustments to pops and sky cover. Otherwise no significant changes to the going forecast. UPDATE Issued at 754 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Thunderstorms continue to track from south central ND into the James River Valley. After the initial development near Bismarck the northern portion of the area has remained severe as it tracked through northern Burleigh into northern Kidder. The southern portion of the broken line has had a hard time maintaining itself as it moves in a more capped environment. Within the next half hour, the entire line has diminished fairly quickly. Still can not rule out a severe storm over the southern James River valley in the next hour or two, but for the most part, the threat of severe weather will continue to diminish. Updated pops and sky cover based on latest radar and satellite analysis. UPDATE Issued at 534 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Thunderstorms have developed over south central ND and are moving to the southeast. Strongest storms in the south central have developed in a localized area of cape to the north of Bismarck. Updated pops based on latest radar analysis. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 239 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Hot weather will continue through Wednesday, along with a chance of thunderstorms. Scattered, surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop in the 20 to 23 UTC time frame from Hettinger northeastward toward the Bismarck/Mandan area. That area is favored for initiation on the nose of the low-level thermal ridge, immediately ahead a pre- frontal wind shift, and in advance of the weak mid-level impulse implied by the area of enhanced cloudiness moving from southeast MT into southwest ND as of 19 UTC. Pre-convective MLCAPE ranges from 1000 J/kg at Hettinger, to 2000 J/kg at Bismarck, and 3000 J/kg at Jamestown. The degree of bouyancy, driven in part by steep low- and mid-level lapse rates, coupled with weak, but veering winds aloft will be sufficient for a few marginally-severe storms with hail and gusty winds. However, overall, the risk will be kept in check by weak deep-layer wind shear, with effective shear magnitudes less than 25 kt. CAMs through the 17 UTC HRRR support this scenario with maximum updraft helicity values generally less than 50 m2/s2 as convection moving eastward, past the Missouri River by 00 UTC, and exiting the James River valley by 06 UTC. The weak cold front moving southward this afternoon is expected to stall along the ND/SD border tonight, then return northeastward as a warm front Wednesday afternoon. A strong thermal ridge will once again flex its muscles eastward into western ND behind that front with 850 mb temperatures of 26 to 28 C from Williston to Bismarck and values around 30 C in southwest ND. Forecast soundings show an impressively-deep well-mixed layer to almost 600 mb, all of which supports highs around 100 F in western and south central ND. Note that record highs are closer to 110 for July 5th, and thus should be safe given currently-forecast thermal fields. The 12 UTC NAM appears reasonable with its low-level dewpoint forecasts east of the north-south oriented warm front given observed trends both ahead of and behind that boundary today. Thus, we expect surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s F in central ND Wednesday afternoon and evening in support of weakly-capped MLCAPE upwards of 3000 J/kg. Models unanimously agree on significantly-stronger winds aloft by then with 0-6-km wind shear around 45 kt along with notable anvil-level flow. Forecast soundings from the 12 UTC NAM are therefore strong matches to environments which have produced significant hailstones over 2 inches in diameter. That being said, this threat is conditional on convective initiation, which is not a sure bet given weak mid-level height rises at 500 mb during peak heating. We do, however, believe that high-based, initially-weak convection could emanate from the intensely-heated air mass in western ND by late afternoon, then intensify as it crosses the warm frontal zone in central ND. Moreover, glancing influence from a weak impulse crossing southern Canada could also aide convective initiation in north central ND by Wednesday evening. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 239 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation will be the theme through the long term forecast period. Amplification of the strong 500 mb ridge centered over the western U.S. late this week will allow somewhat cooler northwest trajectories to develop over our region, resulting in highs mainly in the 80s F Thursday and Friday. However, global ensemble guidance continues to show the ridge shifting back eastward beginning this weekend with yet another period of potential 100 degree weather in the offing by the early to middle part of next week, especially if the 00 and 12 UTC ECMWF runs have anything to say about it. It`s worth noting that the vast majority of recent deterministic GFS cycles have been on the far cold edge of 850 mb temperatures from its ensemble and so its numbers may be negatively-influencing blended forecast guidance. Finally, CIPS analog guidance also suggests a generally dry period, as expected with only weak shortwave troughs rounding the 500 mb ridge. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 933 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Scattered thunderstorms exiting the KJMS TAF site this hour. Otherwise VFR conditions with no threat of thunder for the remainder of the night. Variable winds generally under 10 Kts tonight becoming southerly on Wednesday ahead of an advancing cold front. Winds expected to shift northwest at KISN and KDIK Wednesday afternoon. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TWH SHORT TERM...CJS LONG TERM...CJS AVIATION...TWH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
621 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 428 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Relatively quiet weather has prevailed today, as the strong upper trough over the Central Plains inhibited most of the moisture inflow into the area. Visible satellite imagery shows Cu mid-level clouds developing this afternoon, ahead of a weak cold front currently over central SD. With weak dynamic forcing, moisture and capping, prevailing today, have lowered PoP chances and probability for this evening. HRRR, ESRL HRRR and the ARW are suggesting isolated thunderstorms developing along and east of Highway 71 through around 01Z in response of a weak boundary over eastern NE/western Iowa. Decided to go with isolated storms, and left 15 to 20 % across these areas. Tonight will remain mostly dry and warm, with southerly wind flow prevailing through Wednesday. A cold front will be moving across central SD into central Minnesota in the evening and overnight hours. This will only bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along and north of Highway 14, followed by activity spreading eastward into our extreme northeast zones in southwest Minnesota. Mild low temperatures in the upper 60s are expected tonight. A few lingering showers will be possible early Wednesday morning, mainly over southwest Minnesota, before mostly sunny skies prevail. It will be even warmer than today, with very warm 850 temperatures from 20 to 25 C. Southerly surface winds, and dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s along and west of the James River, could bring highs in the upper 90s to near 100. Highs east of the James River will generally stay in the upper 80s to lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 428 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 A fairly low probability for any convection Wednesday evening, but still possible that a few boundaries from prior convection could remain and fester, only under air aloft that is slightly warmer than today. Main question heading into Wednesday night will be whether convection which forms further north and west from the area toward North Dakota will be able to make a more aggressive turn into warming layer aloft to brush through southwest MN later in the night and early morning. Not the strongest LLJ expected, and moisture is somewhat limited, so no more than a most minor chance at this point late night and very early morning. On Thursday, the weak wave in northwest flow moving across northern Minnesota will drive a frontal boundary southward. This front will be moving southward into a very warm airmass aloft, and thus should be largely inert until perhaps late day. Have already adjusted expected highs to several degrees warmer than blend across many areas south of I-90, but if temps heat closer to 100 degrees in the lower Missouri River valley, could be close enough for frontal forcing to crack the cap and initiate an isolated storm or two. Plenty of potential instability, so would have to keep watch on severe potential from very late afternoon into very early evening, the window during which boundary will be moving across areas southeast of a KSPW to KYKN line. In addition to the thunderstorm concern, there will also be some heat index values that likely eclipse 100 degrees from KSUX toward KSLB. Friday and Saturday will be a pleasant day as weak high pressure ridge settles across the area by late Friday and shifts east on Saturday. Mixing would favor highs mainly in the 80s, but could see some upper 70s in southwest MN on Friday, and some near 90 degree readings in south central SD on Saturday. With drier conditions west of the James River, should continue to work a larger diurnal range into forecast until some better rainfall occurs. Divergence in the longer range models is primarily a question of how amplified the troughing into the Great Lakes will be through the weekend, and how much a wave pushing into the western ridge will flatten the flow. Subtle differences between the ECWMF and GFS camps introduce 5-10 degree differences in mixing potential (EC generally cooler side) and some timing/location differences in subtle northwest flow waves which bring with each a minor chance for thunderstorms. Deeper moisture does appear as if it will be a challenge through the period, so while much of the temporal and spatial domain will likely be dry, there is a threat for storms with any stronger wave that does slide through. For now, confidence is low on timing and have not pushed any past lower chance. Temperatures are also likely to be near to a bit warmer than normal given the drier conditions. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 VFR should be the primary category through Wednesday. Thunderstorm chances in this area will be isolated, and thus not prevalent enough to put in any particular TAF site at this time. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM...Chapman AVIATION...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
648 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 A few showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed just to the east of the forecast area this afternoon. They are moving toward the west, but are having a hard time holding together as they get closer to the forecast area. Still have some low PoPs in the southeast in case they do move into the area. To the west, there have been a few showers, but these are struggling even more. An upper level ridge along the eastern slopes of the Rockies will be the main feature through the period. There is an upper low to the east/southeast and a wave from the low moves through this afternoon and evening. The latest runs of the HRRR have had some development to the east, but has little to nothing in the west. Have kept a few thunderstorms in the west, but do not expect as much there as in the southeast. Later tonight, as the temperatures fall off, the light winds and moisture will again lead to some patchy fog. Most areas will probably not have much, but there could be a little around the area. On Wednesday, a surface high develops to the east. Expect south winds and warming temperatures with a little more sunshine than today. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 The upper level ridge in the western CONUS continues through this period. There are a few waves that move over the top of the ridge and into the area, but most of them are fairly weak. The summer-time pattern leads to mainly small chances on and off through the period. There are a couple more notable waves that come though and bring a little better chance for thunderstorms. The first of these comes through Thursday afternoon and night. The NAM and GFS have a little more precipitation than the ECMWF which ends during the evening. There is a small chance that it may linger into Friday morning. The next wave will be Friday afternoon and Friday night. This one is more evident in the GFS and ECMWF than the NAM. Another wave is possible Saturday afternoon but it is not as strong and should have less chances. For the period Sunday through Tuesday there are a few weak waves with some sporadic chances for thunderstorms mostly during the afternoon and evening time-frame. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday) Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 A persistent westward moving outflow boundary has continued its trek across the area with gusty east and southeast winds occurring as it passes through. A few thunderstorms have also developed along it providing brief heavy downpours and gusty winds for some areas. This activity has remained rather isolated and any lingering thunderstorms should diminish as the sun sets this evening. As the boundary exits the area, generally expect light winds out of the southeast at 5 to 10 kts overnight. Winds will then become light and variable heading into the early morning hours. This along with plenty of moisture across the area overnight could lead to some patchy fog development. Uncertainty remains as to how widespread this will be and it is possible this mainly impacts low elevations areas and river valleys. Still have maintained a mention of MVFR conditions for reduced visibilities for both TAF sites between 9Z and 13Z. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JCB LONG TERM...JCB AVIATION...Petr
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1042 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Broad high pressure will remain centered over the western Atlantic while a slow moving, weak cold front lingers over the region through midweek. A second cold front will push through the area this weekend with somewhat drier and cooler air briefly settling in behind it. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1035 PM EDT: Recent HRRR runs performed quite well in depicting scattered convection redeveloping along the northern Blue Ridge this evening as instability bounced back, but all CAMs agree in diminishing the activity just as quickly by Midnight or shortly thereafter as profiles stabilize. Anticipate mountain valley fog and low clouds morning once again, with patchy early morning fog also possible in areas that received heavy rain today. Expect Wednesday to be nearly the same, with boundaries developing near edge of convective debris and outflows playing a role in forming new precip starting by midday. Temps will also be similar to this past afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT: In the early part of this forecast cycle the upper low in Missouri will be opening up and lifting northeast. Meanwhile, this will allow the Bermuda High to re-adjust its position with H5 heights rising across our forecast area (FA) from Wednesday night into Thursday. This is particularly the case across parts of NE Georgia and upstate South Carolina. We will allow showers and thunderstorms to diminish or end Wednesday night, except in the western North Carolina mountains, where upslope could linger showers through the night. The signals for showers and thunderstorms Thursday appear to be better established for western North Carolina, where another in a series of upper level pockets of energy ripples through the region. This is coincident with a moist and unstable airmass, and a multi- convergent surface pattern. As a result we have POPS reaching likely in the NC mountains with chance POPS flared out to the east and south. Our southern FA may nearly be capped, therefore slight chance should work their. The question mark is really for Thursday night and Friday. All of the models are bringing an upper level trough, and some semblance of a wind shift feature, into our area Thursday night and Friday. H85 wind fields increase to 30-30 knots with the a couple of the models. Our call on this one is to refocus the shower and thunderstorm potential Thursday night in our upslope areas, and then bring a chance of showers and storms through the FA Friday. Confidence in the latter half of the forecast is below average. We have went on the warm side of the temperature guidance in those areas with less thunderstorm potential Thursday and Friday, and near normal elsewhere. Heat indices in our south and east FA Thursday could reach into the upper 90s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 205 PM EDT Tuesday: the extended fcst picks up at 00z on Saturday with a broad upper trof digging south over the Eastern CONUS with steep upper ridging in place over the west. This pattern is expected to remain in place thru most of the period with heights starting to rise again by early next week as the trof begins to deamplify and lift northward. At the sfc, a reinforcing cold front will move thru the fcst area on Saturday with a continental high briefly sliding over the region in the front`s wake. This could provide a brief period of fair wx on Sunday. According to the GFS, the high weakens and slides offshore on Monday with moist SLY low lvl flow returning to the region for the remainder of the period. The 00z ECMWF is still slower to move the high offshore and is therefore slower to return SLY flow to the area. For the sensible fcst, I kept a blend of the model solutions that keeps high-end chance PoPs on Sat and a slight chance PoP for Sunday. Monday and Tues return to a more typical summertime afternoon/evening, diurnal PoP regime. High temps should peak near climatology for Sat with slightly cooler values for the rest of the period. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... At KCLT: All convection has diminished for the nighttime hours. Expect mainly higher level VFR ceilings overnight. Abundant near surface moisture is giving rise to some concern for low clouds or fog overnight, but this is not really featured to any great extent in the MOS or model profiles. Will thus hint in that direction with some FEW to SCT005 to 010 level clouds during the early morning hours. Winds should remain light from the southwest. A few low end afternoon gusts will be possible Wed. but they should be brief. Enough scattered thunderstorm coverage should develop to warrant a PROB30 group at this point for the bulk of the late day hours. Elsewhere: Redeveloping showers and thunderstorms across the northern mountains and northern Blue Ridge should remain north and west of KAVL and KHKY before diminishing shortly after mindnight. Will hit the usual suspects of KAVL and KHKY with fog/low cloud restrictions overnight, and also add some brief MVFR fog at KAND given the late day rainfall. Otherwise, expect light SW winds, picking up a bit through the day on Wednesday with additional scattered thunderstorms developing around the region from 18Z to 00Z. Outlook: Moist and unsettled weather will continue through the late week. Thunderstorms may become more numerous Thursday into Friday as an upper wave passes followed by a cold front. Nocturnal restrictions can be expected in any locations receiving heavy rainfall, and also in the mountain valleys. Some drying is indicated this weekend. Confidence Table... 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z KCLT High 100% High 93% High 100% High 100% KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAVL High 100% Low 29% High 81% High 100% KHKY High 98% High 90% High 100% High 100% KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAND High 100% High 91% High 100% High 100% The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts are available at the following link: www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPT NEAR TERM...HG SHORT TERM...TS LONG TERM...JPT AVIATION...HG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
733 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 730 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Expecting most showers and storms to remain south and west of the forecast area tonight providing a great night for festivities. Temperatures will be able to fall back into the upper 50s to low 60s tonight as cooler and drier air comes into Southern Michigan, NW Ohio and northeastern portions of northern Indiana. Dry air remains around the region for Wednesday as well as only a late day outside chance at a shower or storm and highs in the low to mid 80s. The next best chance for rain comes Thursday night and early Friday as a cold front swings through. It`ll also bring cooler temperatures for the coming weekend. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 155 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Ill-defined pattern over our area currently as surface analysis has high pressure centered across the central great lakes while quasi- stationary boundary has slid a little further south toward the OH valley. Latest RAP analysis indicating low level moisture axis that has been focus for isolated/scattered convection over the CWA also shifting a little further south...now along a line from MIE to CMI. Surrounding radars showing convection beginning to initiate along this boundary. HIRES guidance responding in kind and now indicating better chances for continued convection this afternoon now just south of our CWA. Will continue to monitor afternoon trends but for now plan to stay with theme of current forecast and keep small chance in far south through this evening then dry forecast for tonight. Southern edge of great lakes high is bringing drier air into the NE CWA as dewpoints have dropped into the lower 50s this afternoon. This should continue spreading southwest through the rest of the area tonight and allow for comfortable overnight lows near 60. Upper level disturbance that has been sitting over southern plains will begin to lift out and shift eastward into the MO valley...but model trends continue to show great lakes high will be dominant player for our weather and keep forecast dry with near normal high temps. && .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 155 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Upper level disturbance will move eastward into the TN/OH valley as upper ridge continues to build over the four corners. Surface reflection in the form of frontal wave moving along quasi- stationary boundary will combine to maintain low chance POPs in southern CWA Thursday as main focus will be south of our area. Northern stream wave will then drop down into the great lakes region on Friday and bring surface cold front through the area. Convection expected to initiate in the warm sector ahead of this system Thursday afternoon in the upper MS valley and organize into forward propagating MCS Thursday night. Depending on timing and evolution of this system...may see some strong to severe storms from this complex in NW CWA late Thursday night into the early morning hours on Friday. Timing of cold front Friday not expected to allow sufficient time for warm sector to recover and destabilize before front pushes through which will lessen severe potential for Friday except for possibly extreme SE CWA. Seasonably cool Canadian airmass settles into the great lakes region for the weekend providing very pleasant July weather with less humid conditions and highs 75-80 and lows 55- 60. A couple weak disturbances dropping down in NW flow pattern may generate a few diurnal showers but meager -10 to -15C cold pool will keep chances pretty limited. Temperatures will moderate back into the 80s beginning of next week as we get back into return flow on backside of surface high. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening) Issued at 730 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 Weak flow and a front remaining south across the area has been the story for today. This will keep any storms that do fire ahead of sunrise to the southwest of the terminals. Winds will also continue to remain light and generally be out of the east for the bulk of the period. Dry air moving in overnight will keep terminals in VFR conditions into Wednesday. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Roller SHORT TERM...JAL LONG TERM...JAL AVIATION...Roller Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
947 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 .DISCUSSION... A pleasant evening acrs much of southwest LA and southeast TX for watching fireworks with nearly clear skies, temperatures in the lower 80s and light south winds. Even Mother Nature is getting in on the act just north of our central LA CWA border as a cluster of showers and storms developed along a boundary just before sunset and has persisted. This made for an interesting scene from our office parking lot as fireworks around town were going off against the backdrop of lightning from the distant storms. Recent HRRR guidance indicates the storms acrs central LA will diminish over the next couple of hours, and POPs are expected to remain nil overnight. Made some minor tweaks to POP/WX grids from 00-06Z but none of these changes affected the current zone pkg. 24 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 606 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017/ DISCUSSION... 00Z Taf issuance. AVIATION... South winds ~8-10 knots this evening expected to become variable at 5 kts or less after 02z, picking up again after 14z Wed. VFR expected through the period. Shower and isolated thunderstorm chances 15-20% for Wednesday afternoon, not high enough to place mention in terminals. DML PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017/ DISCUSSION...Happy 4th of July!!! Radar showing just a few isolated showers left over the forecast area. Earlier scattered activity over Acadiana was triggered by just slightly higher moisture availability combined with low level convergence. Interior southeast Texas showers were leftovers from earlier Texas MCS. Will hold onto isolated showers through the remainder of the afternoon. Not expecting any rains for the evening holiday festivities, just the typical warm and humid conditions. Little changes to the previous forecast. Continue to expect a gradual uptick in pops through the week. This as low pressure now advancing into west Missouri maintains a northeast track, while a lingering southwest oriented trof gradually deepens and edges southeast toward and eventually into the area. Scenario suggests a weakening of dry high pressure aloft over the region that has been providing effective capping. Moisture currently confined predominantly to the lower levels will be increasing aloft. Hence increasing rain chances. Otherwise look for persistent low level southerlies to continue to keep the humidity in place. Afternoon apparent temperatures will generally slip into a 100-105 range during max heating. For this evening... 8 PM...Temperature 84...Apparent Temperature 93...Light south wind. 10 PM...Temperature 81...Apparent Temperature 87...Light south wind. MARINE...High pressure ridging across the northwest gulf will maintain light southerlies and low seas. 23 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 75 92 75 92 / 20 20 10 30 LCH 78 90 77 90 / 10 20 10 30 LFT 76 90 76 90 / 10 20 10 40 BPT 77 90 77 90 / 10 20 10 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
836 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 .UPDATE... Showers and thunderstorms continue over a good portion of the Mid-South this evening. Although, the thunderstorms are now mainly confined to an area near McNairy to Hardin County, Tennessee and then a line stretching from near Olive Branch to just north of Marks, Mississippi. The convection is putting a damper on holiday festivities. Unfortunately, chances for off and on showers/thunderstorms will continue into the early morning hours. There will be some breaks between individual cells to possibly get some fireworks off. Another complex of storms may begin pushing into Eastern Arkansas after sunrise. Will need to adjust POPS during the overnight hours to account for this complex. KRM && .DISCUSSION... /issued 309 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017/ Quite a bit more convection on radar than we expected this time yesterday. Summertime convection is especially difficult to forecast as you are typically dealing with subtle features/boundaries and its nearly always at least marginally unstable. Anyway we should see the complex of storms approaching East Arkansas to continue into and across the Midsouth over the next several hours. The HRRR seems to have had a pretty good Handel on the storms so far today and looks to be on track for the approaching storms. However...it may be tracking the storms a bit more to the Northeast than the radar is currently showing. Based on its current track and speed this would take the line of storms across the Mississippi River around 5-6 pm and likely approaching the Tennessee River/Alabama state line around Sunset. It should gradually weaken as it moves East into a less unstable airmass. Short term guidance as well as the Storm Predictions day 1 outlook also support a weakening trend. Hopefully it will move out of the area quick enough to not interrupt any Independence day fireworks displays. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop after midnight...continuing through the day tomorrow. In fact, we have enhanced rain chances in the forecast day and night across all of the Midsouth through Thursday. A weak upper level low and associated trough in place will result in steep lapse rates and daytime heating will enhance instability. Dew points will remain in the low 70s. The low will slowly fill and the trough will gradually shift to the Northeast through Midweek. The threat of strong or severe thunderstorms should decrease with time. High temperatures will likely remain slightly below normal through midweek. By Friday surface high pressure will build in from the West and strong Northwest flow will return to the Midsouth. High temperatures will rebound a bit after midweek...to near 90 with near normal temperatures, in the low 90s returning next weekend. Widespread organized thunderstorms are not expected Friday through next weekend. However, as temperatures turn warmer, afternoon pop-up storms will become more likely. 30 && .AVIATION... A slow moving disturbance over SW MO will bring a round of convection to KMEM, KMKL and KJBR this evening followed by a break later tonight then perhaps another round Wednesday morning. Outside of convection conditions will be VFR with the potential for MVFR stratus developing just after sunrise. Stratus will lift by 15z or 16z with VFR conds returning. Light south winds overnight outside storms will become SW on Wednesday with some gusts above 15 kts at KMEM and KJBR in the afternoon. SJM && && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
739 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 415 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level ridge over the wrn CONUS with downstream wnw flow through the Great Lakes. A weak shortwave trough over srn Manitoba supported an area of shra/tsra into Ontario north of INL that was weakening as it moves away from the srly flow of more unstable air through the ern Dakotas and wrn MN. At the surface, high pressure over the central Great Lakes continued to bring dry weather to Upper michigan with prominent lake breezes and abundant inland diurnal cu. Tonight, the high res models were in decent agreement that an area of shra/tsra will develop this evening ahead of a weak trough into from nrn Ontario into far nw MN. The tsra should move eastward through nrn MN to wrn Lake Superior overnight, fueled by favorable 925-850 theta-e advection even with a modest 30 knot inflow. There is more uncertainty by Wed morning as the MCS or shra/tsra weakens away from the higher instability. MUCAPE values drop to around aob 1k J/Kg farther east. Expect at least a chance for shra/tsra into wrn Upper Michigan with the weakening system. Even with leftover convective debris or mid/high clouds, expect temps to recover by mid afternoon into the lower 80s inland. With dewpoints into the mid 60s, expect SBCAPE values into the 1500-2500 J/Kg range. There will likely be enough of weak boundary or shortwave moving through to help initiate convection. Although models suggest that tsra chances will be greatest over the south, sct tsra will be possible over most of the cwa. With modest 0- 6km shear of only around 30 knots, svr potential will be limited. However, shear/instability will still be strong enough for isold storms with strong winds or large hail. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 354 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017 Upper trough begins to amplify over the Upper Great Lakes by Thu and remains amplified over the area into the weekend. Model consensus timing indicates that a cold front will cross the western fcst area Thu afternoon and then slide through the rest of the fcst area by early overnight Thu night. NAM soundings indicate MLCAPEs approaching 2000 j/kg ahead of the front into interior portions of western Upper Mi. This instability combined with veering winds with height and deep layer shear of 40-45 knots should lead to organized storm development along and ahead of the front including supercells and bowing line segments with large hail and damaging winds as primary severe weather threats from late afternoon into the evening hours. Not surprisingly, SPC day 3 convective outlook includes a slight risk for severe storms across much of Upper Mi. Convection will taper off or end by late evening west and the early overnight east. After the warm (highs generally in the lower to mid 80s) and humid conditions on Thu, temperatures will cool a little below normal behind the front for Friday into Saturday with mainly dry conditions expected. Models still differ on timing of nw flow shortwave on backside of trough and associated cold front for late weekend into early next week. The ECMWF and CMC show similar timing with shortwave moving down through Ontario Sat night pushing cold front across area late Sat night into Sun with isolated to sct shra along the front and drier cooler conditions behind the front late Sun into Tue. The 12z GFS shows the cold front moving through Sun night and early Monday and allows for a buildup of instability ahead of the front on Sun of 1000-2000 j/kg which subsequently leads to a higher coverage of showers and t-storms late Sunday into Mon morning with the frontal passage. Suspect the GFS instability is overdone as it quickly ramps sfc dewpoints up into the mid to upper 60s on Sunday despite soundings showing drier air which should mix to sfc to lower dewpoints. GFS indicates drier cooler conditions Mon afternoon into Tue behind the front. Given continued model uncertainty will likely employ a model consensus approach with slight chc to low chc pops from late Sat night into Mon until models can come into better agreement on timing of frontal systems. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 739 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017 VFR conditions should prevail thru the fcst period at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. However, diminishing shra/tstms will likely approach western Upper MI shortly after sunrise. If this pcpn, maintains some intensity, MVFR or potentially brief IFR conditions could occur in the morning at KIWD/KCMX. Only a VCSH mention was included for now. Shra/tstms will likely develop in the aftn with the better chc around KSAW. Conditions will likely drop out of VFR if any of the terminals are affected. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 415 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2017 Conditions across the lake should remain tranquil through the forecast period with winds staying below 20 knots. However, there may a conditional risk for strong wind gusts with any thunderstorms moving into western Lake Superior late tonight. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...Voss AVIATION...Rolfson MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
637 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 .DISCUSSION... The July 5-6, 2017 00 UTC TAF discussion follows: && .AVIATION... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across north Texas and adjacent parts of southern Oklahoma late this evening/overnight. Highest confidence of showers/storms is south of a line from KCSM/KHBR to KLAW. Opted not to include TSRA at KOKC/KOUN, where the probability is lower. Gusty, variable winds and reduced visibility will be possible within any thunderstorms. Otherwise, light and somewhat variable winds will continue; however, the predominant directions will be from the northeast, east or southeast through period. Mahale && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017/ DISCUSSION... High-based showers are moving southeast through central Oklahoma. Much of this is virga, but there is some light rain reaching the ground at times. The main weather for tonight though is likely beginning to develop in the northwest Texas panhandle and northeast New Mexico. There has been a consistent signal today in the HRRR and other models of storms developing here, becoming a complex and moving southeast through the southwestern portion of the forecast area. The unclear thing about these storms is how far north storms will be in the area. Additional showers and storms are progged to develop along an east-west line across southern Oklahoma and north Texas, although different CAM runs have placed this development at various latitudes. Regardless, the highest POPs tonight will be in the southern part of the area, and generally later this evening. The upper trough from Illinois into southwest Missouri or northeast Oklahoma finally wanders farther east tomorrow and leaves the area in northwest/northerly upper-level flow between this exiting trough and the building ridge in the west. We maintain some low POPs for the next couple of days before the ridge builds in a little stronger. In the longer term, one big difference in the models is the degree of the warming trend toward early next week. GFS low-level temperatures increase the heat significantly more than the ECMWF early next week, mainly in the west. Brought high temperatures a little higher than the model blend given the building ridge and the fact that it is July. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 69 88 69 91 / 50 30 10 0 Hobart OK 69 90 70 92 / 50 30 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 72 90 71 93 / 60 40 20 10 Gage OK 67 90 68 94 / 30 20 0 0 Ponca City OK 65 87 68 91 / 20 10 10 0 Durant OK 71 88 70 90 / 70 60 20 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 09/10/10
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
958 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance over the Tennessee Valley will move east crossing our region tonight. A backdoor front over southern Pennsylvania will drift south toward our area Wednesday before lifting back north as a warm front Thursday. The combination of todays upper level disturbance and additional waves of energy along the front Wednesday and Thursday will result in an increasing threat for showers and thunderstorms for the next several days. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 957 PM EDT Tuesday...Current radar mosaic reveals a couple areas of showers: one is the large area of moderate rain showers with embedded thunderstorms across much of the Central VA Piedmont and Southside VA and into Rockingham and Caswell Counties in NC. Atmosphere in this area is becoming more stable due to persistent rain and a continued weakening trend expected here through midnight. Also seeing increasing/deepening shower development over western Wilkes/southern Alleghany Counties in NC as well as further back into northeastern TN associated with remnant MCV feature. SPC Mesoanalysis reflects axis of lingering moderate instability into our NC counties - and is confirmed by 00z GS0 sounding. Past couple runs of the HRRR show this shower activity brushing the NC foothills counties and making it into the Triad through 05z. Possibility of some thunder given the instability in this general corridor but thunder threat is dwindling. Adjusted PoPs/Wx to better show these trends, but maintained isolated showers for the overnight as near-term guidance continues to point to unfocused, spotty shower coverage pretty much anywhere. Did increase lows up by a couple degrees now into the mid 60s to lower 70s. It will no doubt be rather humid as well with similar dewpoint readings. This should also lead to some patchy mist or fog as well, preferentially in areas that received rainfall today (Piedmont and Blue Ridge counties in VA and the NC Piedmont/foothills). Previous near-term discussion issued at 301 PM follows... Happy 4th of July! Shortwave over the Tennessee Valley associated with an area of showers and a few thunderstorms across eastern Kentucky and eastern Tennessee will move east- northeast this afternoon into tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon into tonight in the warm unstable air. The spc mesoanalysis at 18z showed SBCAPE between 1000 and 2000 J/Kg are forecasted by modified 12z soundings. SPC in the Day 1 convective outlook has placed southern portions in a marginal risk for severe weather with wind being the primary threat. Also, there is a threat for localized heavy rainfall per forecast precipitable water values near 1.75 and cloud layer mean wind from 250 degrees at 10 kts. The diurnally driven thunderstorms should taper off around sunset, however there will be a lingering threat for showers tonight per the presence of the upper shortwave trough passing overhead. Considerable cloudiness with the threat for showers will continue overnight into Wednesday morning. With low level moisture and light winds, added some patches of fog overnight. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 50s in the mountains to around 70 degrees in the Piedmont. The passage of several upper shortwaves will deepen and establish an upper trough across the east by the end of week. High pressure over New England wedges down the east side of the Appalachians and keeps a frontal boundary across the region. This will trigger some convection Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. There is a marginal threat for severe thunderstorms mainly south and west as highlighted on Day Two convective outlook. The main threats will be damaging winds and heavy downpours. High temperatures Wednesday will range from the lower 70s in the mountains to the mid 80s in the Piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 301 PM EDT Tuesday... An upper level ridge in the western Atlantic will continue to block and slow the progress of weather system tracking east of the Mississippi Valley. This ridge will stretch westward across the Gulf states reducing the influx of moisture into the region. However, high moisture content will already be in place by the time the ridge moves over the Gulf States. Wednesday night, a surface reflection along the VA/NC border will slowly move eastward. This reflection will keep some showers over the area through the early morning hours. This system moves out to sea on Thursday. A significant short waves and associated cold front is forecast to move slowly across the Midwest Thursday and over the southern Ohio Valley Thursday night. A second cold front will track over the upper Midwest Thursday night and help push this short wave across the mountains Friday morning and east of the piedmont during the afternoon. This wave is able to pick up speed because the blocking ridge is sinking southward Thursday night and Friday. Since this wave is coming through during the morning, the severe weather threat will be greatly reduced. However, the cold pool comes over the area with a fair decent jet. Therefore, we can not rule out gusty winds or hail for Friday. The mountains are less likely to see severe storms Friday morning. The piedmont may see storms getting stronger in the afternoon, but the max potential for severe chances will be east across the coastal piedmont late Friday afternoon. Close to normal temperatures are expected through Friday with low to mid 80s west of the Blue Ridge and upper 80s to lower 90s east. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 240 PM EDT Tuesday... The cold front that comes across Friday will take bulk of the moisture and instabilities with it. Another front will slide across the region on Saturday. With limited moisture, this second front may produce a few hundredth of an inch of rain across the mountains, mainly along western slopes. Showers will fade as they approach the Blue Ridge then jump to a lee trough over the piedmont during the afternoon. With good mixing and low instabilities, we will only carry showers for this frontal passage. Cool and dry high pressure will move over the region Sunday and Monday. The chance for thunderstorms begin to increase on Tuesday. Temperatures will fall a few degrees below normal following the second frontal passage Saturday. Muggy conditions will also be replaced with comfortable humidity levels with dew points falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s over the weekend. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 718 PM EDT Tuesday... Generally VFR outside of any thunderstorms through a large part of the overnight. Thunderstorm threat mainly from 00-03z, have indicated VCSH for now and will amend as necessary for more imminent impact to specific airports. Brief sub-VFR visibility reduction and occasional/frequent CG lightning are the risks from thunderstorms, along with erratic outflow gusts. Approaching band of showers/embedded thunder now over northeast TN mainly affects southern Blue Ridge/NC mountains after 04z. Coverage of showers should diminish after 08z, with potential for patchy fog particularly for airports that received rain. Kept visibility in fog generally 1-4 SM. Outside of thunderstorms, winds intially east to northeast 3-6 kts become light to calm overnight. Should see improvement in areas of patchy fog with VFR conditions for the Wednesday morning hours. Potential again for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon with introduction of VCSH at most terminals after 16z Wednesday. Light winds outside of thunderstorms. Extended Aviation Discussion... Ceilings to lower to MVFR Wednesday evening as ongoing showers interact with weak wedge building down from northern VA. Should see return to VFR ceilings Thursday ahead of a potent shortwave trough. While periods of VFR certainly expected at times, potential for heavier showers/storms Thursday afternoon and evening especially western terminals, and then again on Friday. Generally VFR conditions for the upcoming weekend. Late night and early morning fog can also be expected with increasing probability through the week, especially given the increasing potential for late day/evening rain at many TAF sites. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK/PM NEAR TERM...AL/KK SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...AL/JR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
935 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 .DISCUSSION... Mesolow movg mostly east of area, although small persistent cluster of convection beyond sunset across southern portions of northern LA. For this reason, will maintain isold pops areawide as boundary may linger. further north, still expecting mcs development overnight in nw flow aloft, although OK radar scope is clear with all clusters in west TX and ne AR. Have only increased pops to likely across extreme nw cwa and do not expect this coverage until near daybreak. Current dewpoint trends and temps suggest that overnight lows in lower to mid 70s should prevail./07/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 831 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017/ AVIATION... For the 05/00z TAFS vfr conditions prevailing... Terminals kmlu and keld vcts will be possible over the next several hours before moving away from these terminal sites by 05/03Z. Low clouds will filter in from the west which will cause cigs across the region to drop to mvfr by 05/09Z. Cigs will continue to decrease to mvfr to ifr through the morning hours due to a warm moist air filtering in from the Gulf of Mexico and a disturbance to the west. These low CIGS will move from west to east starting with ktyr,klfk,kggg,ktxk around 05/10Z and move to kshv,kmlu,keld by 05/11Z. Vsby will fluctuate from 5 to 6 sm through the overnight hours with most terminal sites lifting to mvfr to vfr by 05/12Z with -shra/-tsra possible in east Texas. /21/ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017/ DISCUSSION... More upper 80s than low 90s, but skies are thinning with visible showing rotating meso high overhead. This is bringing light NW flow in over this morning`s outflow boundary and we have bumped pops a bit the rest of this afternoon in NE LA for the most part. A pre first period in the new zone forecast will introduce chance and keep it going into the early evening for these zones. The HRRR is a little better in it`s initialization and is showing continued development toward sunset in the same general area. The HRRR also shows the next nocturnal push developing right over NE TX and SE OK along the Red and sinking South into Northwest LA on its last available frame. So additional changes may develop there on this evening`s update. The GFS had a good guess at 12Z and all the models indicate another complex right in our neighborhood. The overall chance is going up a bit a surface front nudges this whole pattern slowly E across the area. This is only a 1018-1020mb high so just slightly cooler, but drier a bit for Friday. Then the boundary lifts back into the weekend bringing back good coverage into mid month. That is good news for hanging on to double digit highs and our rain deficit. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 76 91 76 90 / 20 50 30 30 MLU 75 93 75 91 / 20 20 30 30 DEQ 72 87 70 90 / 60 60 30 30 TXK 74 88 72 89 / 40 60 30 30 ELD 73 88 74 90 / 30 40 30 30 TYR 76 90 74 91 / 20 60 30 20 GGG 76 90 74 90 / 20 50 30 30 LFK 76 94 75 93 / 20 20 20 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
649 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 .AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ Look for challenging flight weather for most of this forecast period. Thunderstorms will continue for this evening, across mainly the Big Country and Concho Valley. Plus, stratus and MVFR ceilings will likely return late tonight at the Junction terminal. Tomorrow afternoon, thunderstorms remain in the forecast for all but the Sonora and Junction terminals. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Wednesday) Scattered thunderstorms are starting to develop across portions of the western Big Country and the northwest Concho Valley as of 3 PM (20Z). Latest HRRR shows this activity expanding in coverage and moving southeast through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening hours. Have expanded the PoPs farther southeast to cover much of the area this evening, with the best chance north of a San Angelo to Brownwood line. The HRRR and the TTU-WRF also show a second area of showers and storms developing across the Panhandle this afternoon, with this area of storms moving south into West Central Texas later tonight. Overall, have increased rain chance for much of West Central Texas tonight. Chances for tomorrow are highly dependent on exactly what happens tonight. Best chance will likely remain across the eastern counties, where the convection moving in late tonight may well linger into the morning hours. These storms should leave additional boundaries that will again be a focus for additional convection tomorrow afternoon. Just where these boundaries end up remain a question, so will keep rain chances relatively low at the moment, although some areas may well see higher rain chances needed tomorrow at some point. Temperatures to remain near or a little above normal, with lows in the lower 70s and highs in the low to mid 90s. LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Tuesday) Northwest flow aloft will continue this week, even as upper ridging builds in from the west and northwest. Best chance of storms (20-30 percent) will be Wednesday night and Thursday. Storms will become even more isolated Friday and Saturday, with the best potential over eastern and southern portions of West Central Texas. Main storm threat will be strong gusty winds. Next week, high pressure will suppress most shower and thunderstorm development, although one can not rule out a storm given the region will be on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge. Highs will continue into the mid and upper 90s into next week with lows in the lower to mid 70s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 72 93 72 95 / 30 30 20 20 San Angelo 73 96 73 97 / 30 20 30 20 Junction 73 95 72 96 / 10 10 20 20 Brownwood 72 93 72 94 / 30 40 30 30 Sweetwater 73 93 71 94 / 30 20 20 10 Ozona 72 95 71 94 / 10 10 20 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$