Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/01/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1051 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017
A couple of chances at some showers and storms tonight. Some
activity developing along the wind shift line from central
Wisconsin into northeast Iowa with some additional activity
developing over northern and central Minnesota ahead of a short
wave trough dropping southeast across the Dakotas. The activity
along the wind shift/convergence line should progress to the east
through the rest of the afternoon and be just about out of the
area by early evening. The 30.16Z HRRR shows the activity over
Minnesota will continue to expand through the afternoon but
should then start to dissipate through the evening with the loss
of heating/CAPE. Plan to carry some 20 to 30 percent rain chances
for areas mainly north of Interstate 90 to handle the possibility
that some of this activity could hold together long enough to
reach the local area.
After tonight, the next chance of rain will come in for Saturday
night. The upper level low currently over Manitoba will slide
southeast and weaken as it becomes absorbed into the mean trough
from an upper level low east of Hudsons Bay. Even though the
system will be weakening, the short wave trough will still be
fairly strong as it crosses the northern Great Lakes. The best pv
advection in the 500-300 mb layer will stay northeast of the local
area but the 30.12Z GFS does bring some weak pv advection across
central Wisconsin late Saturday night. This is also when the cold
front associated with this system will be working across the
region. The low level moisture transport does increase Saturday
night but is focused out ahead of the short wave trough over
northeast Wisconsin into Michigan. There should be some weak
frontogenesis in the 1000-850 mb layer with the front and the GFS
is quite strong with the isentropic up glide showing up to 10
ubar/s on the 300K surface ahead of the front. For now will carry
a 20 to 50 percent rain chances from southwest to northeast across
the area. This system looks to move through fast enough to not
need any lingering rain chances into Sunday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017
Upper level ridging is expected to build over the Rockies through
the week turning the flow from near zonal to northwest over the
Upper Midwest. Right now, there does not look to be any strong
systems embedded in this pattern which should lead to just some
small occasional rain chances. A short wave trough may move across
the region Tuesday and Tuesday night for a small chance of rain.
Another short wave trough looks to slide across the norhtern Great
Lakes with a chance of rain across mainly Wisconsin Thursday into
Thursday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light
westerly flow should persist into Saturday morning. Although drier
air will gradually filter into the area, a bit of MVFR
ceilings/visibility could not be ruled out early Saturday
morning. However, with clouds also possibly lingering across the
area, confidence in fog formation is not high, but will need to be
watched. Diurnal VFR cumulus may develop along with some high
clouds on Saturday in association with a series of upper level
disturbances. Westerly winds will shift southerly Saturday night
ahead of a weak approaching cold front.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...JM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
923 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend from the Atlantic westward through
the northern Gulf of Mexico through early next week. North of
the ridge some troughing will be in the forecast area. The
pattern supports seasonal hot conditions with a chance of
mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Quasi-Linear Convective line which moved through the area
earlier this evening weakened considerably east of Columbia.
Focus now for thunderstorms across the low country. Based on
satellite and radar trends...lowered pops across the area. The
latest HRRR suggests limited coverage especially after 06z as
instability weakens and short wave east of the area. Temperatures
are near forecast mins and little change expected overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The models display surface ridging extending from the Atlantic
westward through the northern Gulf of Mexico. North of the ridge
lee-side troughing is depicted in the forecast area. The area
is shown near the southern periphery of broad mid-level
troughing but with deeper moisture northeast of the area ahead
of more significant shortwave troughing. The diminished
moisture will lead to higher temperatures. Followed the guidance
consensus and forecasted highs mainly in the lower 90s Saturday
and middle 90s Sunday with heat index values peaking about 95
and 100, respectively. Used the guidance consensus pop of around
30 percent Saturday and 20 percent Sunday. The models indicate
moderate instability with surface-based LI values around -7. A
few of the thunderstorms may contain strong wind.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF show surface ridging extending from the
Atlantic westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico with lee-side
troughing in the forecast area during much of the medium-range
period. Mid-level ridging may be a little weaker toward the end
of the period. The pattern supports a chance of mainly afternoon
and evening thunderstorms with seasonal hot conditions. The GFS
and ECMWF MOS plus GFS ensemble mean support pops around 30
percent. The MOS indicates highs mainly in the middle 90s.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR with possible MVFR late tonight/early Saturday
morning.
Convection winding down with loss of daytime heating.
During the early morning hours moisture will remain high so
expect cigs to lower into MVFR range. Conditions will improve
after 01/14z as winds increase and slightly drier air mixes
down. Winds through the period will be southerly at 7 knots or
less.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/early morning
stratus/fog, along with scattered mainly afternoon/evening
thunderstorms possible each day.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1049 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
The area will remain on the periphery of Atlantic high pressure
as a surface trough develops inland through the weekend and
persists into early next week. Atlantic high pressure
strengthens across the area by the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 1045 PM: Convection band has pushed east as expected. In
the wake of the line, a large area of stratiform rain was across
SE GA/SC. I will adjust the weather to remove mention of
thunderstorms east of the line and adjacent stratiform
lightning. In addition, I will increase sky cover and cool temps
to observed values.
As of 915 PM: Band of thunderstorms should push off the coast
over the next two hours. Instability over the marine zones
should support ongoing convection. However, latest HRRR
indicates that convection will rapidly weaken, leaving an area
of stratiform rain across the CWA through the late night hours.
I will follow mainly the latest radar and satellite trends,
indicating that the coverage will pass over the marine zones.
However, I will keep SCHC to CHC PoPs in the forecast for the
overnight hours.
As of 745 PM: An outflow based wide band of thunderstorms was
pushing east across KCLX. The atmosphere is largely worked over,
however, normalized CAPE between the convection and the coast
has been analyzed with 0.1. Given the instability and radar
trends, I will forecast the line to hold together and gradually
weaken through the rest of the evening. Temps will be updated
with obs.
Previous discussion:
Deep moisture remains over the region this
evening as a mid-to- upper level shortwave approaches from the
west. Subsidence ahead of this approaching wave has kept
Southeast Georgia largely rainfree through the afternoon, but
this is expected to change as we head into the evening hours.
High res models are indicating that the line of showers and
thunderstorms crossing central Georgia currently will continue
to progress into our area late this afternoon and into the
evening, and POPs have been adjusted to reflect expected timing
of this feature. Severe threat remains low, but with PWATs near
daily record amounts (~2.25 in) heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning are the primary threats with these storms. This line
of storms will effectively remove any thermodynamic instability
in its wake, and only slight chance POPs are maintained for most
south of the Charleston Tri-County overnight to account for the
proximity to dynamic influences of the departing shortwave.
Lows are expected to range in the low to mid 70s, highest north
of the Savannah where thicker clouds will provide more
insulation.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
The synoptic pattern will remain fairly typical for summer
featuring subtropical high pressure centered well offshore
and a weak piedmont inland. A ribbon above normal moisture for early
summer will remain in place through the period which will yield at
or slightly above normal rain chances through the holiday weekend.
Expect most activity to concentrate along/ahead of the sea breeze
each day with convection redeveloping over the Atlantic closer to
the western wall of the gulf stream at night. Pops will range
from 30-50% each afternoon, although periods of locally higher pops
may be needed. Highs will warm into the lower-mid 90s with overnight
lows in the mid 70s. Dewpoints will slowly creep up through the
period. Heat indices could approach 105-107 at times, but should
remain below the post July 1 Heat Advisory criteria of 110.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Most of next week looks fairly typical for early July in the
Southeast. Atlantic high pressure will keep a southerly flow
over the area while a weak upper ridge maintains temps in the
90s. Typical mainly diurnal convection anticipated Tuesday and
Wednesday. There are hints that a weak upper trough will drop
into the area Thursday and Friday which could increase forcing
for convection.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will remain high across
KSAV through mid evening and KCHS during the late evening. I
will indicated a period or two of MVFR restrictions with the
passage of thunderstorms. Cloud cover will remain BKN to OVC
across the terminals through the overnight hours, bases should
favor VFR. The environment should support scattered
thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and evening, I will
highlight with a PROB30 between 18z-23z.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are
possible in afternoon showers/thunderstorms at both terminals
into early next week.
&&
.MARINE...
Today and tonight: High pressure situated to the northeast of
the local waters will continue to drive a primarily southerly
flow. Currently southerly winds will veer more southwesterly
through late tonight with wind speeds generally less than 10
kts.Expect winds to increase to 10-15 knots over night within
modest nocturnal surging. Seas will be 2-3 feet.
Saturday through Wednesday: Moderate south to southwest winds
will prevail through the period with winds locally backing
southeast along the Georgia coast with the afternoon sea
breeze. Decent sea breeze circulations will develop
each afternoon along the coast.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CEB/NED
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...CEB/NED
MARINE...CEB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1156 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region Saturday bringing
break in the humidity for the second half of the weekend into
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
The remains of the earlier storms have diminished into some
scattered showers and thunderstorms from near AOO east into
Lebanon county. The HRRR shows these disappearing over the next
couple of hours with little or no additional activity overnight.
The NW has the leading edge of the Ohio MCS moving through at
this time with locally heavy rains. So far activity has been
moving along and radar estimates rainfall amounts of just 1 to
1.5" inches. Will continue to monitor the area for the
potential of heavy rain as a shortwave rides through the lower
lakes providing efficient deep moisture transport. WPC has
upgraded the risk for flash flooding to a pretty widespread area
of Slight Risk. FFGs are about 2.5" in 3 hrs. PWATs in the
1.25-1.5" range and storm motions of 20-25 kts will keep
flooding worries to a minimum except where training/repeat
storms move through.
The HRRR peters the northern convection out between about
06-09Z while leaving the bulk of the remainder of Pa fairly dry
overnight. It`s very muggy with dewpoints well up into the 60s
and even lower 70s in some areas. Lows in the 60s and lower 70s
will make for uncomfortable sleeping weather for those without
air conditioning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A more significant shortwave and cold front will move into the
area Saturday. This feature should be coincident with the
surface trough and the best chance for storms this weekend. SPC
Slight risk covers most of the area as this will be a well-
timed front to pair up the forcing and heating. Shear is not
wildly high, but CAPEs can get near 2000J with temps soaring
into the 90s in the SE and 80s elsewhere.
Showers should end quickly Sat evening as the forcing slides
overhead and pushes the weak front through.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Not a lot of change from recent days.
Made a few changes, but left as much of the period Sunday
into early Wednesday on the dry side.
Still looks wet at times later Wed into Thursday.
The big thing is the EC last night went toward other guidance
with more of an upper lvl trough by the end of next week. Thus
a risk of showers and storms next Friday.
Prior to this, looking at more typical summer weather than we
have seen so far this season. Temperatures will be close to
normal for the period and dewpoints higher than what we have
seen this season for the most part.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak low pressure system lifting north across Lake Erie is
producing a batch of showers and thunderstorms across northwest
Pa at 04Z. Radar trends and latest HRRR suggest the bulk of
this activity will remain west of KBFD, but given the low
dewpoint depressions and upslope flow, expect some MVFR cigs to
develop shortly after midnight.
Model soundings indicate a period of fairly widespread MVFR
cigs are likely Saturday morning between 09Z-15Z across the
eastern half of Pa, associated with a surge of tropical
moisture lifting into the region on a deep southerly flow. Model
soundings and SREF prob charts suggest KIPT/KMDT/KLNS are
likely to experience MVFR cigs, while odds of restrictions are
just below 50 pct further west at KUNV/KAOO/KJST.
Diurnal heating should result in lifting cigs to VFR in most
places by afternoon. However, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the passage of a cold front, which
could produce a brief vis reduction and gusty winds in some
spots.
.OUTLOOK...
Sun...AM low cigs possible BFD/JST.
Mon...Isold PM tsra impacts possible southern Pa.
Tue...No sig wx expected.
Wed...Isold PM tsra impacts possible southwest Pa.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Gartner
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Fitzgerald
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
544 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 204 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017
Upper-level analysis reveals a departing trough exiting the Rocky
Mountain states into the high plains this Friday afternoon. Behind
this trough, slightly below seasonal average temperatures have
filtered in from the north. Combine that with a dearth of mid-
level moisture and virtually zero shower threat even in the
southern mountains, this afternoon has certainly turned out to be
one of the more enjoyable weather days in recent weeks. As the
500mb gradient relaxes over the Rockies, wind speeds will decrease
markedly around sunset as mixing ceases and shallow inversions
develop in valley locations. HRRR smoke dispersion modeling still
indicates the chance for some smoke from the Brian Head fire to
make it into southeast Utah and southwest Colorado, however early
indications from GOES16 Aerosol Optical Depth products would seem
to indicate this model may be overdone regarding smoke tonight.
Have opted keep smoke out of the grids tonight due to lower areal
coverage and concentration.
On Saturday, weak short-term ridging aloft will move over the
forecast region. At the same time, some weak moisture return
around the 700mb level will squeeze north along the Continental
Divide. A few dry thunderstorms may materialize along the higher
terrain of the San Juans and southern Divide, however coverage
will be very low and most of the CWA will remain dry. Afternoon
high temperatures should return to around 5 degrees above average
area-wide.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 204 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017
On Sunday, a subtle and rather diffuse trough will pass north of
the Colorado/Utah border. A slight uptick in 500mb wind speeds
will help to aid any convection that manages to form, which may
result in a better chance of sustained shower activity in the
north despite RH values remaining low through the column. The GFS
appears most aggressive with regard to convection. Grids for
Sunday represent a blend of GFS/NAM solutions, and keep PoPs just
below slight chance thresholds in the lower valley locations for
now.
This trough swings through by Monday with a drier afternoon
expected. Ridging aloft will once again build in to the region
through the remainder of the week. All medium-range forecast
guidance remains in excellent agreement showing the center of a
large 596 DM ridge centering right over the CO/UT border by the
Day 7 timeframe. One would initially assume near- record heat
returning to eastern Utah and western Colorado during this
timeframe. While this is certainly a possibility noted in MEX/ECM
guidance, the record heat potential may ultimately be thwarted by
an uptick in mid-level moisture sneaking in underneath this
ridge. Guidance shows an increasing chance of afternoon convection
in the mountains each day in the mid to late week timeframe. GEFS
ensemble guidance also indicates an upward swing in PWAT
anomalies by late next week and early weekend, lending support to
broader areal coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms by
that timeframe.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 544 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017
VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours with mostly
clear skies under high pressure. Typical diurnal terrain-driven
winds will take hold overnight. Expect some cumulus development by
Saturday afternoon, especially over the higher terrain of
southwest Colorado, with isolated thunderstorms possible. This
should have little if any impact on TAF sites. Breezy conditions
to 20 mph are possible during peak afternoon heating on Saturday
with mostly to partly sunny skies.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MAC
LONG TERM...MAC
AVIATION...MDA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
910 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017
.UPDATE...
Not much to discuss this evening. Forecast holding in pretty good
shape, with clearing skies and a mild night in store. Only
question is potential for morning showers in northern counties as
outflow from possible MCS moving across the Red River Valley/nern
TX pushes swd late tonight. Unsure if this boundary would even
make it into southeastern TX before stalling/dissipating, and if
it does would it support a few showers around daybreak? Current
forecast has 20% PoPs up north to account for this possibility and
will keep that riding overnight.
Evans
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017/
AVIATION...
Another night in which the general picture of the forecast is
fairly straight forward, but in which the details are very
tricky. In general, look for the remaining teensy showers to come
to an end, followed by a general development of MVFR ceilings to
improve to VFR tomorrow morning/afternoon.
Now, that said, the HRRR is suggesting that MVFR conditions may
not be solid other than in the north, waffling between MVFR and
VFR through the night. Play it conservatively with the Houston
metro and stick with MVFR until some point in the morning. Further
coastward, do attempt to bring in a short VFR period late tonight
and bring MVFR ceilings back around dawn for a short time. This
may need to be amended for particular timing as that is very
uncertain, but hopefully will be sufficient for planning purposes.
Through it all, southerly/southeasterly winds continue in the 7-12
knot vicinity as decreased mixing should settle down gusts from
earlier today.
One final caveat: the HRRR is suggesting that some remnant of the
convection in Oklahoma and Texas this evening may survive to our
northern counties. Will leave all TAFs dry for now, but it`s not
totally impossible for some isolated showers around CLL and UTS
15Zish. Will be watching progression of these storms and their
resultant outflow tonight to determine true potential for impact
to the northernmost sites.
Luchs
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 76 95 74 94 / 20 10 20 0 0
Houston (IAH) 93 77 93 76 94 / 20 10 10 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 89 81 88 80 89 / 20 10 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CDT tonight for the
following zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 5 AM CDT Saturday for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
726 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017
Showers and storms will gradually taper off later tonight though
a few showers may still be possible through Saturday. Less humid
conditions are expected over the weekend with seasonable
temperatures. The chance for rain and storms will return early
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017
Convection starting a bit earlier than expected this afternoon but
otherwise not too many changes to the forecast from previous
discussions. SPC/RAP mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE values around 1500
J/kg nosing into our SW zones with surface dewpoints in the low
70s. This instability is almost entirely uncapped and widespread
convection is unfolding along broad region of confluence as a
result. Effective shear struggling to get above 25 kts but is
starting to climb as shortwave approaches the area. This
combination of high moisture, moderate instability, and some weak
shear/flow aloft will continue to support the threat for isolated
damaging wind gusts and small hail through the evening hours. Of
much greater concern is the heavy rain and potential flooding
threat. Widespread convection (training in some spots) with PW
values climbing above 1.8 inches and 850mb dewpoints around 16C
will support pockets of heavy rain through the evening. Normally
this wouldn`t be too much of a concern but will likely cause more
issues given rain last night. Latest HRRR and RAP13 still
suggesting some potential for more organized/sustained updrafts
early this evening (through 00Z) as shortwave approaches and
wind/shear increase but still think flooding is main concern with
just an isolated wind threat. Expect precip to gradually wind down
from 00-06Z as instability wanes and this initial region of
convergence shifts east. That being said...could still be an
isolated shower through Sat morning (especially in the east) as
main trough axis passes. Models (including hi-res CAMs) still show
potential for a few afternoon showers tomorrow with some residual
moisture and cooling aloft. Not expecting anything strong/severe
though and coverage should remain low.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017
Not much value added to long term forecast with focus on near-term
convection and a high degree of unpredictability heading into next
week. Sunday still expected to be mainly dry though did add some low
chance PoPs late in the afternoon for our northern counties with NAM
and GFS insistent on some isentropic ascent/warm frontogenesis in
right entrance region of decent upper jet streak swinging through
the Great Lakes. Slight uptick in low level theta-e with upstream
moisture plume advected in by westerly flow but moisture quality is
still not great and not expecting large coverage or any strong
updrafts. Chances persist into Sunday night.
Forecast confidence remains low for next week with frontal boundary
stalled over the region, increasing moisture/instability to the
south, and potential for one or more small scale waves to ripple
through the region. Deterministic models continue to offer varying
solutions from run to run, unfortunately requiring blanket low
chance PoPs for much of the period. Does look like a decent chance
of rain/storms sometime late Tue/Wed but confidence in exact timing
and track of parent shortwave is very low. Currently appears dry Thu
with another cold front arriving sometime late in the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 725 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017
Convection currently exiting the area with just some light rain
showers left. Upstream ceilings are variable but generally VFR.
Kept KSBN VFR through the period but took KFWA to MVFR with fuel
alternate possible later tonight given recent heavy rain,
boundary layer cooling, and relatively weak dry air advection in
the lowest levels. A stray storm may be possible overnight but
coverage expected to be very isolated and not worth including in
the TAF. VFR conditions expected tomorrow.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...AGD
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1035 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2017
The line of convection is showing signs of weakening upstream with
warming cloud tops overall. A few stronger cells are still
embedded within the line, but these will likely succumb to the
weaker environment out ahead of them with time. Fine-tuned the
POPs into tomorrow morning based on the trends in radar and higher
resolution model guidance. This allows for the outflow to
gradually work its way through eastern Kentucky through dawn, with
a more distinctive lull in convection following this into
Saturday morning. Have blended the POPs with the existing
forecast thereafter, awaiting further 00z model guidance to come
in. Current forecast lows from the upper 60s to around 70 still
look on target. Just freshened up the hourly readings through the
overnight.
UPDATE Issued at 742 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2017
Isolated convection is dwindling with time, with weak lapse rates
through the column. Meanwhile, a line of thunderstorms has been
making steady progress to the east across Indiana, with some new
development crossing over into western Kentucky along trailing
outflow. The HRRR and CAMS support a progressive line approaching
our area just after midnight. Instability and shear will be weak
out ahead of the storms, so would expect a gradual weakening trend
as they move deeper into eastern Kentucky during the overnight
hours. Have allowed for more of a lull in the POPs through this
evening, before the approach of the line later on. Updates have
been sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 415 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2017
As of mid afternoon the region is between a shortwave trough
departing to the east and another approaching from the west that
is moving across parts of the Lower OH Valley. A rather warm and
moist airmass is in place with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower
70s. A few showers have developed across the region but low and
mid level lapse rates are generally on the weak side. Low level
lapse rates are strongest in the northeast but still generally
under 7C. Shear remains on the week side with effective bulk shear
mainly 20KT or less. Stronger convection has developed over parts
of OH, IN, and IL. Further upstream another shortwave trough was
approaching the MS Valley.
Through this evening and tonight, a shortwave trough is expected
to approach the area from the west and dampen. Daytime heating
instability driven convection should wane toward sunset with lack
of significant forcing and shear. Meanwhile, the bulk of upstream
convection associated with the shortwave approaching should
either move into more unstable air over western and middle TN or
pass north of the area. Convective allowing models as well as the
most recent GFS, NAM and ECMWF bring some of this convection into
the CWA, but weaken it. Thus, higher pops were used during the
evening, generally after 0Z with the highest pops in the west and
northwest. This shortwave should move east of the area late
tonight or early on Saturday. Lows tonight will be mild in the
upper 60s to around 70.
As the cold front and main shortwave trough axis approaches on
Saturday and combines with daytime heating, greater coverage of
convection areawide should result. Likely pops were retained for
all by the far west and northwest for Saturday. Marginal to
moderate shear and marginal instability are anticipated to
develop by early to mid afternoon. A couple of strong storms with
locally heavy rain would be the main threat with the storms,
though the strongest storms could contain gusty winds.
The cold front should cross the area on Saturday night with high
pressure starting to build into the area. After the expected
rainfall, this should set the stage for some areas of valley fog
late Saturday night. With drier air and dewpoints expected to
advect in, lows will be near normal for early July.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 412 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2017
A longwave trough will be pushing through the eastern U.S. during
the day Sunday. By Monday, models show a bit more zonal flow
across KY, however the ECMWF and GFS are showing a shortwave
strengthening into an upper level low across the Central Plains
Monday into Tuesday, with some weaker shortwaves expected to move
across Kentucky during this time as well. This larger shortwave/upper
level low will eventually shift eastward and into the Ohio River
Valley by Thursday, before absorbing back into the longwave
pattern over the east coast on Friday. Overall models are in fair
agreement about this, however exact timings and the strength of
the shortwave are still in some disagreement.
As for sensible weather, a weakening cold front will have moved
through eastern KY Saturday night, and should be exiting to the SE
by Sunday morning. Surface high pressure and drier weather will
take hold during the day Sunday, though high temperatures are
still expected to rise back into the mid and upper 80s without a
strong push of northerly flow behind the front. The remnants of
the dying front to our south could be enough to spawn some showers
and thunderstorms during the day Monday, mainly isolated during
peak heating. By Tuesday, another weak frontal boundary will push
towards the region from the north. This boundary is expected to
become hung up along the Ohio River or just north through
Wednesday, interacting with the upper level energy moving across
the region, and warm/moist southerly flow setting up south of the
front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible both
Tuesday and Wednesday across much of KY as a result, dissipating
with loss of peak heating overnight.
Even after the frontal boundary starts shifting more NE of the
area Wednesday into Thursday, the continued warm/moist airmass
will interact with the upper level disturbances in place to
produce diurnally driven scattered showers and thunderstorms
through the end of the forecast period. Highs each day are
expected to remain in the mid to upper 80s. Humidity levels are
also expected to continue increasing throughout the workweek.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2017
VFR conditions will be seen through around 06z, as isolated
showers gradually diminish across the area. A line of showers and
thunderstorms will move east across the area between 06 and 09z,
with a gradual weakening trend expected. KSYM and KSME stand the
better chance of seeing a brief window of MVFR or worse conditions
as these storms move in. Ceilings will drop down to MVFR in the
wake of the storms from west to east closer to dawn. These lower
ceilings will linger through Saturday morning, before raising up
to VFR in the afternoon with scattered convection threatening once
again. South southwest winds of around 5 kts through the
overnight, will gradually veer to the west southwest on Saturday
and increase to 5 to 10 kts.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
620 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017
An upper trough swinging through western Nebraska this afternoon
will move east of the area by this evening. This will keep a
slight chance for thunderstorms early evening across the far
eastern zones. Otherwise, clearing skies and dry conditions to
western Nebraska overnight. Lows tonight very close to previous
forecast from the upper 40s northwest to the lower 50s southeast.
Light northwest winds this evening will become light and variable
overnight.
On Saturday, height rises aloft will bring sunny skies and dry
conditions. Southwest winds to around 10 mph will mix down 850 mb
temperatures from 20-25 celsius, and highs reaching 86 to 89
degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017
For Saturday night, a weak disturbance aloft along with a
developing low level jet should bring isolated thunderstorms to
central Nebraska beginning late evening and overnight. Most area
however should remain dry.
On Sunday, a frontal boundary will be draped from near Alliance
through Broken Bow. While temperatures will very from the upper
80s north of the boundary to the lower 90s to the south, weak
convergence near the surface will combine with moderate
instability from 2500-400 j/kg near this boundary. Deep layer
shear will be adequate to support sustained updrafts and upscale
growth of thunderstorms. Strong to severe thunderstorms are
forecast across the entire area. Depending on the westward extend
of thunderstorms, the thunderstorm could persist throughout the
night. Current forecast is for thunderstorms to end west of
highway 83 by midnight, with a chance overnight for areas to the
east.
Winds will become south and southeast in the wake of this system
on Monday, with highs 85 o 90. A chance for thunderstorms to
continue, especially during the afternoon and evening.
For Tuesday through Friday, the upper ridge in the Desert
Southwest will build into the Central Plains, and suppress
thunderstorm development for the most part. There is a slight
chance for thunderstorms by Thursday and Friday across portions of
the area, as a backdoor front attempts to move into the area.
Highs in the lower 90s, should reach the mid 90s by Wednesday and
Thursday, especially across the west.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017
The latest HRRR and RAP models indicate the isolated showers and
thunderstorms will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating
around 02z this evening. VFR is expected all areas thereafter,
tonight through Saturday afternoon with one exception. The HRRR
EXP model suggests afternoon heating may spark isolated showers
and thunderstorms across Scntl Neb around 22z Saturday afternoon.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1112 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017
...Forecast Update...
Issued 1111 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017
Line of convection has taken on a more ragged appearance recently
with a decrease in lightning activity and slowly warming cloud tops.
Isolated pockets of gusty winds still possible, but overall there
seems to be a gradual weakening trend.
Also have been keeping an eye on thunderstorms approaching Bowling
Green. With a more east-west orientation heavy rain could lead to
water problems as the line moves east. However it appears that the
line has been fairly progressive so far and radar trends show a
distinct weakening in the cells. So, no flooding issues with those
storms at this time but will continue to monitor.
Issued at 932 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017
Quick update to time the line through the middle portion of the CWA.
The line is in an area of upper level divergence, moderate low level
moisture transport, and 850 theta-e ridging. Area radars have been
showing 40-55kt winds not far off the surface, but those winds have
had a difficult time mixing down as the line has been trailing just
behind best DCAPE air to the east and weak to moderate low level
lapse rates. CIN has been diurnally increasing as well as the sun
sets. The line will probably maintain its strength for another hour
or so and then weaken as it gets into the Blue Grass.
Issued at 650 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017
22Z AMDAR sounding toward the west indicated a slight weaker/smaller
cap over SDF, but the HRRR/RAP are starting to catch on with their
soundings. The trend in the HRRR is still for a majority of the
region to get storms this evening/early overnight. Latest radar
analysis shows a beefy line coming into Dubois County within the
hour, with a trailing outflow boundary slowing trying to get
development along it. Still think the worst part of the storm will
be closer to the better dynamics in southern Indiana, so will be
watching that part of the line to see if it intensifies. Fine tuned
the forecast again with this line of convection and to show some
clearing/dry rain chances behind it before blending with the
previous forecast`s morning rain chances.
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017
Latest AMDAR sounding indicates the cap is 5-10 degrees stronger in
the 600-700 mb range than what the latest RAP is showing.
Preliminary GOES-16 low-level water vapor data showing a boundary of
moisture moving in from the west that may help to erode some of that
cap. Latest HRRR trend is to continue to bring in a line of storms
from the west into the Louisville metro in the 8-10 PM range and
then weakening eastward toward Lexington in the 11 PM-1 AM range.
Have backed off on earlier precip and gone for better chances this
evening. Updated forecast out shortly.
.Short Term (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017
An upper trough and cold front will move through the region tonight.
Ahead of these features, a left over MCV was moving east over south
central IL this afternoon. Convection that has developed closer to
these features and better shear was looking more robust over IL/IN
this afternoon. Although bkn cloud cover has limited our
instability some, we`ve still been able to build up 1500-2000 j/kg
so far with up to 1300 DCAPE. A mid level cap shows up on AMDAR
soundings which is likely limiting our convective development
currently. However, as the evening wears on and those better
triggers and wind shear to our west moving into the area, would
expect to see sct-numerous showers/storms between round 7p-midnight.
Still anticipating mainly clusters of multicells which could merge
into a bkn line. The main storm threats look to be damaging winds
and lightning although marginally severe hail isn`t out of the
question.
After this complex of storms moves through tonight, we should see a
relative lull in convection late tonight/early tomorrow morning
before potentially another round of convection fires across south
central/east central KY along old boundaries tomorrow afternoon.
Although there is less confidence in this second round which will
depend on where boundaries lay out after the storms tonight, there
is potential for a damaging winds/lightning/hail threat again
tomorrow where storms occur.
Stay abreast of the latest radar and any watches/warnings tonight
and tomorrow especially if outdoor activities are planned.
Temperatures will remain warm and muggy with highs in the low to mid
80s tomorrow. Lows in the lower 70s tonight will drop back into the
60s tomorrow night.
.Long Term (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017
The pattern will remain active through the next 7 days. While
Sunday may be a dry day for most, continued rounds of convection
will be possible throughout the coming week as multiple hard to
time disturbances move through the Ohio Valley. A cold front
passing through Tues/Tues night (the 4th) may provide a better shot
at showers/storms to our region. Another front looks to drop south
into the region on Sat bringing an enhanced period for convection as
well.
Outside of several POPs in the 7-day forecast, temps will remain
quite warm in the mid to upper 80s for highs. Lows will range
through the upper 60s/lower 70s.
&&
.Aviation (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 706 PM EDT Fri June 30 2017
The main concern at the TAF sites tonight will be the line of storms
that is moving in from the west. This line looks to affect SDF
around 01-03Z and LEX around 03-05Z. Confidence is lower in it
affecting BWG, but will keep it in there as well during the 02-04Z
time frame. With the very heavy rain, visibilities are likely to be
reduced for a period as the storms move through.
Behind the line of storms, clouds should scatter out for a time at
all sites. However, the latest guidance then has a MVFR ceiling
developing early tomorrow morning at LEX. Another round of showers
and storms will move in tomorrow morning at BWG and by mid day at
LEX. There is less confidence in storms affecting SDF, so have
decided not to mention it in the TAFs there at this time.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS/13
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......EER
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
919 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high will remain in place overnight. A cold front
across the Upper Midwest will pass through the area Saturday
before stalling to the south Sunday and Monday. The boundary
will dissipate Tuesday while high pressure develops over the
Atlantic. Low pressure may impact the region Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Thunderstorms developed in a couple of areas late this
afternoon... eastern West Virginia/northern Maryland and a more
remote but robust cell that tracked northeast through the
Virginia foothills. Recent trends have been on the decline, and
with the loss of daytime heating, believe that will continue to
be the case.
While instability will be minimal overnight, there are some
indications (via RAP) that there will be a few hundred joules of
lingering CAPE, with inhibition eroding. Hence, RAP developing a
new round of precipitation southeast of a Waynesboro-Alexandria
line. HRRR also attempting to develop a couple of showers, but
much more suppressed. Will increase overnight PoPs, but not
more than 20-30 percent.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Area could use some rain, and Saturday will probably be the best
opportunity as a short wave/cold front track across the
northeastern US. As far as severe the better possibilities will
also be to our north as well: northern VA to the Mason-Dixon
Line will have a period of "skinny CAPE/weak shear," further
south severe indices are even weaker. We have likely
afternoon thunderstorms across the north and mention of
possible severe weather in the HWO. Highs around 90.
Precipitation chances will taper off rapidly Saturday night.
Lows again in the lower 70s across much of the area.
Sunday should see high pressure over the area. Dewpoints should
be a few degrees lower than Saturday helping it to feel a little
more comfortable. Highs 85-90.
And no problems expected Sunday night. Lows 65-70 except warmer
in the cities/colder in the Highlands.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will build over the Great Lakes as a boundary
approaches our region from the north Monday into Monday night.
Mostly dry conditions early on Monday, then a few showers and
thunderstorms possible mainly north of our CWA and over higher
terrain in the afternoon and into the evening.
The boundary will stall near or south our area into Tuesday as a low
pressure develops south of the Great Lakes. This low will move east-
northeast and lift the front into Tuesday evening. Both GFS and
ECMWF keeps dry conditions over the metro areas through Tuesday
afternoon. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible on 4th of
July mainly in the afternoon and evening.
Precipitation chances increase overnight Tuesday and into Thursday
as low pressure moves across our north and southwesterly flow
increases moisture over our region. The low will move off the New
England coast Thursday. High pressure builds into the region Thursday
night and into Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Guidance still depicting period of low ceilings before sunrise.
There are some indications that IFR possible, but will reduced
confidence, have limited restrictions to MVFR. Any clouds (or
fog) should lift by mid morning.
Afternoon/evening convection will be probable, especially from
DC northward. The question will be in terms of point impact.
Have introduced VCTS for the period of peak heating. If an
airfield is affected, restrictions will be brief (less than an
hour), but potentially aob IFR.
Dry/VFR conditions expected early on Monday. Maybe a few
showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon as a
boundary approaches. A few showers and thunderstorms possible
again Tuesday afternoon into the evening. Sub-VFR periods
possible overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Southerly channeling has brought frequent gusts to 20 knot on
both the Potomac and Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay.
Trends support dropping the Small Craft Advisory for the upper
Potomac. Small Craft Advisory will continue on the remainder of
the waters overnight, then all waters again Saturday. Thunderstorms
will be possible on the waters Saturday afternoon and evening,
some with strong wind gusts.
High pressure over the region Sunday. Winds should be below SCA
values.
Daytime heating/southerly flow SCA conditions may occur during
the first part of the week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A southerly flow will continue to cause elevated water levels
through Saturday. Minor flooding is not expected for most areas
since the flow should be just west of south.
&&
.CLIMATE...
June was much drier than normal for most of the area. Below is a
list of driest Junes on record at our three first-order climate
sites.
DCA
1. 0.86 inches (1940)
2. 0.95 inches (1088)
3. 1.13 inches (2017)
BWI
1.40 inches this June ranked as 14th driest on record
IAD
1. 0.52 inches (1988)
2. 0.94 inches (1966)
3. 1.14 inches (1985)
4. 1.28 inches (2017)
All climate data are considered preliminary until reviewed by the
National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI).
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>534-
537>543.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for
ANZ535- 536.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...Woody!
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...HTS/Woody!/IMR
MARINE...HTS/Woody!
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Woody!
CLIMATE...DH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1014 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid southwest flow prevails ahead of a cold front
that crosses Saturday. Drier post frontal environment Sunday and
Monday. Warm and humid with increasing rain chances mid week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1010 PM Friday...
Reduced POPs again for the rest of this evening and tonight.
Near term models continue to indicated that the line of showers
and storms approaching from the west will struggle to make it
into the dry mid levels. Left mainly scattered showers and
storms in for now, but even that may be generous per HRRR and
RAP. However, NAMNest and WRFs are a bit more robust with the
incoming convection.
As of 220 PM Friday...
Even though there are no defined boundaries in the very warm,
moist and unstable airmass in place over the area this
afternoon, the main concern continues to be the well defined
mid level dry slot from northeast KY, thru most of WV to the
west of the mountains. Still looking at a quite unstable
airmass per forecast soundings for pop up thunderstorms this
afternoon, but not widespread organized storms, and latest data
indicated this is just beginning at 230 PM. Because of the mid
level drying and precip loading potential, have included gusty
winds with these storms. These storms should diminish with
heating this evening.
However, the more organized features begin to affect us tonight
and Saturday, with the models in good agreement. One feature is
an upper level disturbance, well out ahead of a cold front,
that will bring a band of showers and storms across the area
tonight. Given that it is night time, these will be elevated
with severe potential limited at best, looking for about a 2-4
hour period of convection with this feature tonight. This
feature will be exiting the mountains early Saturday morning.
The next feature will be the cold front itself that will move
east across the area Saturday afternoon. Upper air support will
be weaker with the front, lots of clouds will be present, and
some of the best moisture will be kicked out by the overnight
upper disturbance. But even with these negative factors, the
diurnal factor is there to at least go with a high chance for
convection. Pops will be diminishing at least in the west
Saturday afternoon.
Conditions will be quite warm and muggy this period until the
front passes.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 210 PM Friday...
Largely a post frontal environment Sunday, drier with only
isolated convection and temperatures back around normal with
lower dewpoints. This will allow lower 60s across the lowland
areas to come back into play Sunday night in the brief post
frontal environment before return flow heading into the
extended forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 210 PM Friday...
Upper level wave ejecting out of the mid Mississippi Valley will
bring the next organized convective chance, but the surface
low/baroclinic zone will push northward allowing the warm sector
into the CWA and low end POPs. In the end, it will be a cold
frontal issue with the storms and ultimately a Wednesday time
frame before the appreciable increases in the POPs.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 730 PM Friday...
Some isolated showers around this evening should diminish after
sunset. Clouds will generally be on the increase as a mid to
upper level feature moves through. Some uncertainty as to how
much of this will survive into tonight, but with the mid to
upper support think there will still be enough coverage to
warrant mentioning precip and VCTS in the TAFs. Also expecting
ceilings to drop into MVFR late tonight into Saturday morning.
A cold front slides through Saturday with additional showers and
storms expected.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of lower conditions and storms
tonight may vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 07/01/17
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms into Saturday night.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
632 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Look for challenging flight weather to develop, during the next 12
hours. The best area for thunderstorms is across the Big Country
this evening. Thus, the Abilene terminal will continue to include
vicinity thunderstorms, beginning around 04Z and continuing until
around 09Z. Elsewhere, returning stratus later tonight will again
bring MVFR ceilings to most of West Central Texas south of
Interstate 20. Conditions should return to VFR, at all terminals,
by 18Z tomorrow.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)
A shortwave trough continues to move across the Central Plains
this afternoon and evening bringing a weak cold front just
northwest of our CWA. At 3 PM, scattered showers have developed
near Alpine and Fort Stockton along the dryline. Further
development of showers and thunderstorms is expected late this
afternoon and evening as the cold front moves south. Models are
fairly inconsistent with how far south the thunderstorms are
expected to go in the 7 PM to 1 AM time frame. The Texas Tech WRF
and HRRR show a large line of thunderstorms moving as far south as
northern Tom Green County. However, the NAM and the Rap tend to
favor the activity being more scattered and located mainly north
of the I-20 corridor. Therefore, a blend of the two was preferred
with rain chances being focused mainly north of a Richland Springs
to Robert Lee line. Some of these storms may become strong to
severe as CAPE values near 2500 to 4000 j/kg are combined with
25-35 kts of 0-6 km shear. Damaging winds are the main threat
tonight, however, some large hail may be possible as well. The SPC
Day 1 Convective Outlook is in agreement with this forecast as
the Big Country, Sterling County, and Coke County are in a
marginal risk. It is also worth noting that a slight risk has been
extended into part of Haskell and Throckmorton counties.
LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)
Upper ridging will continue to bring subsidence and dry
conditions the first half of next week. However, an upper trough
will develop mid week over Texas and Oklahoma, bringing a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms over the Big Country (and
perhaps farther south in the Concho Valley Wednesday night and
Thursday). By Friday, upper ridging reestablishes itself with
showers and thunderstorm chances becoming remote.
The main concern next week will be the heat, with highs in the
upper 90s to around 100 each day, and lows in the lower/mid 70s.
Gusty winds and dangerous lightning will be the main concerns in
thunderstorms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 75 94 75 96 / 50 20 10 5
San Angelo 76 97 74 100 / 20 10 5 5
Junction 76 95 73 96 / 5 10 5 10
Brownwood 75 95 73 96 / 50 20 5 10
Sweetwater 74 93 73 97 / 40 20 10 10
Ozona 75 94 72 95 / 5 10 5 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$