Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/01/17

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1051 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 A couple of chances at some showers and storms tonight. Some activity developing along the wind shift line from central Wisconsin into northeast Iowa with some additional activity developing over northern and central Minnesota ahead of a short wave trough dropping southeast across the Dakotas. The activity along the wind shift/convergence line should progress to the east through the rest of the afternoon and be just about out of the area by early evening. The 30.16Z HRRR shows the activity over Minnesota will continue to expand through the afternoon but should then start to dissipate through the evening with the loss of heating/CAPE. Plan to carry some 20 to 30 percent rain chances for areas mainly north of Interstate 90 to handle the possibility that some of this activity could hold together long enough to reach the local area. After tonight, the next chance of rain will come in for Saturday night. The upper level low currently over Manitoba will slide southeast and weaken as it becomes absorbed into the mean trough from an upper level low east of Hudsons Bay. Even though the system will be weakening, the short wave trough will still be fairly strong as it crosses the northern Great Lakes. The best pv advection in the 500-300 mb layer will stay northeast of the local area but the 30.12Z GFS does bring some weak pv advection across central Wisconsin late Saturday night. This is also when the cold front associated with this system will be working across the region. The low level moisture transport does increase Saturday night but is focused out ahead of the short wave trough over northeast Wisconsin into Michigan. There should be some weak frontogenesis in the 1000-850 mb layer with the front and the GFS is quite strong with the isentropic up glide showing up to 10 ubar/s on the 300K surface ahead of the front. For now will carry a 20 to 50 percent rain chances from southwest to northeast across the area. This system looks to move through fast enough to not need any lingering rain chances into Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Upper level ridging is expected to build over the Rockies through the week turning the flow from near zonal to northwest over the Upper Midwest. Right now, there does not look to be any strong systems embedded in this pattern which should lead to just some small occasional rain chances. A short wave trough may move across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night for a small chance of rain. Another short wave trough looks to slide across the norhtern Great Lakes with a chance of rain across mainly Wisconsin Thursday into Thursday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1051 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light westerly flow should persist into Saturday morning. Although drier air will gradually filter into the area, a bit of MVFR ceilings/visibility could not be ruled out early Saturday morning. However, with clouds also possibly lingering across the area, confidence in fog formation is not high, but will need to be watched. Diurnal VFR cumulus may develop along with some high clouds on Saturday in association with a series of upper level disturbances. Westerly winds will shift southerly Saturday night ahead of a weak approaching cold front. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...JM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
923 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend from the Atlantic westward through the northern Gulf of Mexico through early next week. North of the ridge some troughing will be in the forecast area. The pattern supports seasonal hot conditions with a chance of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Quasi-Linear Convective line which moved through the area earlier this evening weakened considerably east of Columbia. Focus now for thunderstorms across the low country. Based on satellite and radar trends...lowered pops across the area. The latest HRRR suggests limited coverage especially after 06z as instability weakens and short wave east of the area. Temperatures are near forecast mins and little change expected overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... The models display surface ridging extending from the Atlantic westward through the northern Gulf of Mexico. North of the ridge lee-side troughing is depicted in the forecast area. The area is shown near the southern periphery of broad mid-level troughing but with deeper moisture northeast of the area ahead of more significant shortwave troughing. The diminished moisture will lead to higher temperatures. Followed the guidance consensus and forecasted highs mainly in the lower 90s Saturday and middle 90s Sunday with heat index values peaking about 95 and 100, respectively. Used the guidance consensus pop of around 30 percent Saturday and 20 percent Sunday. The models indicate moderate instability with surface-based LI values around -7. A few of the thunderstorms may contain strong wind. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The GFS and ECMWF show surface ridging extending from the Atlantic westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico with lee-side troughing in the forecast area during much of the medium-range period. Mid-level ridging may be a little weaker toward the end of the period. The pattern supports a chance of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms with seasonal hot conditions. The GFS and ECMWF MOS plus GFS ensemble mean support pops around 30 percent. The MOS indicates highs mainly in the middle 90s. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mainly VFR with possible MVFR late tonight/early Saturday morning. Convection winding down with loss of daytime heating. During the early morning hours moisture will remain high so expect cigs to lower into MVFR range. Conditions will improve after 01/14z as winds increase and slightly drier air mixes down. Winds through the period will be southerly at 7 knots or less. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/early morning stratus/fog, along with scattered mainly afternoon/evening thunderstorms possible each day. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...99 SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1049 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The area will remain on the periphery of Atlantic high pressure as a surface trough develops inland through the weekend and persists into early next week. Atlantic high pressure strengthens across the area by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 1045 PM: Convection band has pushed east as expected. In the wake of the line, a large area of stratiform rain was across SE GA/SC. I will adjust the weather to remove mention of thunderstorms east of the line and adjacent stratiform lightning. In addition, I will increase sky cover and cool temps to observed values. As of 915 PM: Band of thunderstorms should push off the coast over the next two hours. Instability over the marine zones should support ongoing convection. However, latest HRRR indicates that convection will rapidly weaken, leaving an area of stratiform rain across the CWA through the late night hours. I will follow mainly the latest radar and satellite trends, indicating that the coverage will pass over the marine zones. However, I will keep SCHC to CHC PoPs in the forecast for the overnight hours. As of 745 PM: An outflow based wide band of thunderstorms was pushing east across KCLX. The atmosphere is largely worked over, however, normalized CAPE between the convection and the coast has been analyzed with 0.1. Given the instability and radar trends, I will forecast the line to hold together and gradually weaken through the rest of the evening. Temps will be updated with obs. Previous discussion: Deep moisture remains over the region this evening as a mid-to- upper level shortwave approaches from the west. Subsidence ahead of this approaching wave has kept Southeast Georgia largely rainfree through the afternoon, but this is expected to change as we head into the evening hours. High res models are indicating that the line of showers and thunderstorms crossing central Georgia currently will continue to progress into our area late this afternoon and into the evening, and POPs have been adjusted to reflect expected timing of this feature. Severe threat remains low, but with PWATs near daily record amounts (~2.25 in) heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are the primary threats with these storms. This line of storms will effectively remove any thermodynamic instability in its wake, and only slight chance POPs are maintained for most south of the Charleston Tri-County overnight to account for the proximity to dynamic influences of the departing shortwave. Lows are expected to range in the low to mid 70s, highest north of the Savannah where thicker clouds will provide more insulation. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... The synoptic pattern will remain fairly typical for summer featuring subtropical high pressure centered well offshore and a weak piedmont inland. A ribbon above normal moisture for early summer will remain in place through the period which will yield at or slightly above normal rain chances through the holiday weekend. Expect most activity to concentrate along/ahead of the sea breeze each day with convection redeveloping over the Atlantic closer to the western wall of the gulf stream at night. Pops will range from 30-50% each afternoon, although periods of locally higher pops may be needed. Highs will warm into the lower-mid 90s with overnight lows in the mid 70s. Dewpoints will slowly creep up through the period. Heat indices could approach 105-107 at times, but should remain below the post July 1 Heat Advisory criteria of 110. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Most of next week looks fairly typical for early July in the Southeast. Atlantic high pressure will keep a southerly flow over the area while a weak upper ridge maintains temps in the 90s. Typical mainly diurnal convection anticipated Tuesday and Wednesday. There are hints that a weak upper trough will drop into the area Thursday and Friday which could increase forcing for convection. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will remain high across KSAV through mid evening and KCHS during the late evening. I will indicated a period or two of MVFR restrictions with the passage of thunderstorms. Cloud cover will remain BKN to OVC across the terminals through the overnight hours, bases should favor VFR. The environment should support scattered thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and evening, I will highlight with a PROB30 between 18z-23z. Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible in afternoon showers/thunderstorms at both terminals into early next week. && .MARINE... Today and tonight: High pressure situated to the northeast of the local waters will continue to drive a primarily southerly flow. Currently southerly winds will veer more southwesterly through late tonight with wind speeds generally less than 10 kts.Expect winds to increase to 10-15 knots over night within modest nocturnal surging. Seas will be 2-3 feet. Saturday through Wednesday: Moderate south to southwest winds will prevail through the period with winds locally backing southeast along the Georgia coast with the afternoon sea breeze. Decent sea breeze circulations will develop each afternoon along the coast. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...CEB/NED SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...JRL AVIATION...CEB/NED MARINE...CEB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1156 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the region Saturday bringing break in the humidity for the second half of the weekend into next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... The remains of the earlier storms have diminished into some scattered showers and thunderstorms from near AOO east into Lebanon county. The HRRR shows these disappearing over the next couple of hours with little or no additional activity overnight. The NW has the leading edge of the Ohio MCS moving through at this time with locally heavy rains. So far activity has been moving along and radar estimates rainfall amounts of just 1 to 1.5" inches. Will continue to monitor the area for the potential of heavy rain as a shortwave rides through the lower lakes providing efficient deep moisture transport. WPC has upgraded the risk for flash flooding to a pretty widespread area of Slight Risk. FFGs are about 2.5" in 3 hrs. PWATs in the 1.25-1.5" range and storm motions of 20-25 kts will keep flooding worries to a minimum except where training/repeat storms move through. The HRRR peters the northern convection out between about 06-09Z while leaving the bulk of the remainder of Pa fairly dry overnight. It`s very muggy with dewpoints well up into the 60s and even lower 70s in some areas. Lows in the 60s and lower 70s will make for uncomfortable sleeping weather for those without air conditioning. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... A more significant shortwave and cold front will move into the area Saturday. This feature should be coincident with the surface trough and the best chance for storms this weekend. SPC Slight risk covers most of the area as this will be a well- timed front to pair up the forcing and heating. Shear is not wildly high, but CAPEs can get near 2000J with temps soaring into the 90s in the SE and 80s elsewhere. Showers should end quickly Sat evening as the forcing slides overhead and pushes the weak front through. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Not a lot of change from recent days. Made a few changes, but left as much of the period Sunday into early Wednesday on the dry side. Still looks wet at times later Wed into Thursday. The big thing is the EC last night went toward other guidance with more of an upper lvl trough by the end of next week. Thus a risk of showers and storms next Friday. Prior to this, looking at more typical summer weather than we have seen so far this season. Temperatures will be close to normal for the period and dewpoints higher than what we have seen this season for the most part. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weak low pressure system lifting north across Lake Erie is producing a batch of showers and thunderstorms across northwest Pa at 04Z. Radar trends and latest HRRR suggest the bulk of this activity will remain west of KBFD, but given the low dewpoint depressions and upslope flow, expect some MVFR cigs to develop shortly after midnight. Model soundings indicate a period of fairly widespread MVFR cigs are likely Saturday morning between 09Z-15Z across the eastern half of Pa, associated with a surge of tropical moisture lifting into the region on a deep southerly flow. Model soundings and SREF prob charts suggest KIPT/KMDT/KLNS are likely to experience MVFR cigs, while odds of restrictions are just below 50 pct further west at KUNV/KAOO/KJST. Diurnal heating should result in lifting cigs to VFR in most places by afternoon. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the passage of a cold front, which could produce a brief vis reduction and gusty winds in some spots. .OUTLOOK... Sun...AM low cigs possible BFD/JST. Mon...Isold PM tsra impacts possible southern Pa. Tue...No sig wx expected. Wed...Isold PM tsra impacts possible southwest Pa. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Gartner LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...Fitzgerald
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
544 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 204 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Upper-level analysis reveals a departing trough exiting the Rocky Mountain states into the high plains this Friday afternoon. Behind this trough, slightly below seasonal average temperatures have filtered in from the north. Combine that with a dearth of mid- level moisture and virtually zero shower threat even in the southern mountains, this afternoon has certainly turned out to be one of the more enjoyable weather days in recent weeks. As the 500mb gradient relaxes over the Rockies, wind speeds will decrease markedly around sunset as mixing ceases and shallow inversions develop in valley locations. HRRR smoke dispersion modeling still indicates the chance for some smoke from the Brian Head fire to make it into southeast Utah and southwest Colorado, however early indications from GOES16 Aerosol Optical Depth products would seem to indicate this model may be overdone regarding smoke tonight. Have opted keep smoke out of the grids tonight due to lower areal coverage and concentration. On Saturday, weak short-term ridging aloft will move over the forecast region. At the same time, some weak moisture return around the 700mb level will squeeze north along the Continental Divide. A few dry thunderstorms may materialize along the higher terrain of the San Juans and southern Divide, however coverage will be very low and most of the CWA will remain dry. Afternoon high temperatures should return to around 5 degrees above average area-wide. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 204 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017 On Sunday, a subtle and rather diffuse trough will pass north of the Colorado/Utah border. A slight uptick in 500mb wind speeds will help to aid any convection that manages to form, which may result in a better chance of sustained shower activity in the north despite RH values remaining low through the column. The GFS appears most aggressive with regard to convection. Grids for Sunday represent a blend of GFS/NAM solutions, and keep PoPs just below slight chance thresholds in the lower valley locations for now. This trough swings through by Monday with a drier afternoon expected. Ridging aloft will once again build in to the region through the remainder of the week. All medium-range forecast guidance remains in excellent agreement showing the center of a large 596 DM ridge centering right over the CO/UT border by the Day 7 timeframe. One would initially assume near- record heat returning to eastern Utah and western Colorado during this timeframe. While this is certainly a possibility noted in MEX/ECM guidance, the record heat potential may ultimately be thwarted by an uptick in mid-level moisture sneaking in underneath this ridge. Guidance shows an increasing chance of afternoon convection in the mountains each day in the mid to late week timeframe. GEFS ensemble guidance also indicates an upward swing in PWAT anomalies by late next week and early weekend, lending support to broader areal coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms by that timeframe. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 544 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017 VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours with mostly clear skies under high pressure. Typical diurnal terrain-driven winds will take hold overnight. Expect some cumulus development by Saturday afternoon, especially over the higher terrain of southwest Colorado, with isolated thunderstorms possible. This should have little if any impact on TAF sites. Breezy conditions to 20 mph are possible during peak afternoon heating on Saturday with mostly to partly sunny skies. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MAC LONG TERM...MAC AVIATION...MDA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
910 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 .UPDATE... Not much to discuss this evening. Forecast holding in pretty good shape, with clearing skies and a mild night in store. Only question is potential for morning showers in northern counties as outflow from possible MCS moving across the Red River Valley/nern TX pushes swd late tonight. Unsure if this boundary would even make it into southeastern TX before stalling/dissipating, and if it does would it support a few showers around daybreak? Current forecast has 20% PoPs up north to account for this possibility and will keep that riding overnight. Evans && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017/ AVIATION... Another night in which the general picture of the forecast is fairly straight forward, but in which the details are very tricky. In general, look for the remaining teensy showers to come to an end, followed by a general development of MVFR ceilings to improve to VFR tomorrow morning/afternoon. Now, that said, the HRRR is suggesting that MVFR conditions may not be solid other than in the north, waffling between MVFR and VFR through the night. Play it conservatively with the Houston metro and stick with MVFR until some point in the morning. Further coastward, do attempt to bring in a short VFR period late tonight and bring MVFR ceilings back around dawn for a short time. This may need to be amended for particular timing as that is very uncertain, but hopefully will be sufficient for planning purposes. Through it all, southerly/southeasterly winds continue in the 7-12 knot vicinity as decreased mixing should settle down gusts from earlier today. One final caveat: the HRRR is suggesting that some remnant of the convection in Oklahoma and Texas this evening may survive to our northern counties. Will leave all TAFs dry for now, but it`s not totally impossible for some isolated showers around CLL and UTS 15Zish. Will be watching progression of these storms and their resultant outflow tonight to determine true potential for impact to the northernmost sites. Luchs && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 94 76 95 74 94 / 20 10 20 0 0 Houston (IAH) 93 77 93 76 94 / 20 10 10 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 89 81 88 80 89 / 20 10 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CDT tonight for the following zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 5 AM CDT Saturday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
726 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 725 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Showers and storms will gradually taper off later tonight though a few showers may still be possible through Saturday. Less humid conditions are expected over the weekend with seasonable temperatures. The chance for rain and storms will return early next week. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Convection starting a bit earlier than expected this afternoon but otherwise not too many changes to the forecast from previous discussions. SPC/RAP mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg nosing into our SW zones with surface dewpoints in the low 70s. This instability is almost entirely uncapped and widespread convection is unfolding along broad region of confluence as a result. Effective shear struggling to get above 25 kts but is starting to climb as shortwave approaches the area. This combination of high moisture, moderate instability, and some weak shear/flow aloft will continue to support the threat for isolated damaging wind gusts and small hail through the evening hours. Of much greater concern is the heavy rain and potential flooding threat. Widespread convection (training in some spots) with PW values climbing above 1.8 inches and 850mb dewpoints around 16C will support pockets of heavy rain through the evening. Normally this wouldn`t be too much of a concern but will likely cause more issues given rain last night. Latest HRRR and RAP13 still suggesting some potential for more organized/sustained updrafts early this evening (through 00Z) as shortwave approaches and wind/shear increase but still think flooding is main concern with just an isolated wind threat. Expect precip to gradually wind down from 00-06Z as instability wanes and this initial region of convergence shifts east. That being said...could still be an isolated shower through Sat morning (especially in the east) as main trough axis passes. Models (including hi-res CAMs) still show potential for a few afternoon showers tomorrow with some residual moisture and cooling aloft. Not expecting anything strong/severe though and coverage should remain low. && .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Not much value added to long term forecast with focus on near-term convection and a high degree of unpredictability heading into next week. Sunday still expected to be mainly dry though did add some low chance PoPs late in the afternoon for our northern counties with NAM and GFS insistent on some isentropic ascent/warm frontogenesis in right entrance region of decent upper jet streak swinging through the Great Lakes. Slight uptick in low level theta-e with upstream moisture plume advected in by westerly flow but moisture quality is still not great and not expecting large coverage or any strong updrafts. Chances persist into Sunday night. Forecast confidence remains low for next week with frontal boundary stalled over the region, increasing moisture/instability to the south, and potential for one or more small scale waves to ripple through the region. Deterministic models continue to offer varying solutions from run to run, unfortunately requiring blanket low chance PoPs for much of the period. Does look like a decent chance of rain/storms sometime late Tue/Wed but confidence in exact timing and track of parent shortwave is very low. Currently appears dry Thu with another cold front arriving sometime late in the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued at 725 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Convection currently exiting the area with just some light rain showers left. Upstream ceilings are variable but generally VFR. Kept KSBN VFR through the period but took KFWA to MVFR with fuel alternate possible later tonight given recent heavy rain, boundary layer cooling, and relatively weak dry air advection in the lowest levels. A stray storm may be possible overnight but coverage expected to be very isolated and not worth including in the TAF. VFR conditions expected tomorrow. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AGD SHORT TERM...AGD LONG TERM...AGD AVIATION...AGD Visit us at Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1035 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1035 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2017 The line of convection is showing signs of weakening upstream with warming cloud tops overall. A few stronger cells are still embedded within the line, but these will likely succumb to the weaker environment out ahead of them with time. Fine-tuned the POPs into tomorrow morning based on the trends in radar and higher resolution model guidance. This allows for the outflow to gradually work its way through eastern Kentucky through dawn, with a more distinctive lull in convection following this into Saturday morning. Have blended the POPs with the existing forecast thereafter, awaiting further 00z model guidance to come in. Current forecast lows from the upper 60s to around 70 still look on target. Just freshened up the hourly readings through the overnight. UPDATE Issued at 742 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2017 Isolated convection is dwindling with time, with weak lapse rates through the column. Meanwhile, a line of thunderstorms has been making steady progress to the east across Indiana, with some new development crossing over into western Kentucky along trailing outflow. The HRRR and CAMS support a progressive line approaching our area just after midnight. Instability and shear will be weak out ahead of the storms, so would expect a gradual weakening trend as they move deeper into eastern Kentucky during the overnight hours. Have allowed for more of a lull in the POPs through this evening, before the approach of the line later on. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 415 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2017 As of mid afternoon the region is between a shortwave trough departing to the east and another approaching from the west that is moving across parts of the Lower OH Valley. A rather warm and moist airmass is in place with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A few showers have developed across the region but low and mid level lapse rates are generally on the weak side. Low level lapse rates are strongest in the northeast but still generally under 7C. Shear remains on the week side with effective bulk shear mainly 20KT or less. Stronger convection has developed over parts of OH, IN, and IL. Further upstream another shortwave trough was approaching the MS Valley. Through this evening and tonight, a shortwave trough is expected to approach the area from the west and dampen. Daytime heating instability driven convection should wane toward sunset with lack of significant forcing and shear. Meanwhile, the bulk of upstream convection associated with the shortwave approaching should either move into more unstable air over western and middle TN or pass north of the area. Convective allowing models as well as the most recent GFS, NAM and ECMWF bring some of this convection into the CWA, but weaken it. Thus, higher pops were used during the evening, generally after 0Z with the highest pops in the west and northwest. This shortwave should move east of the area late tonight or early on Saturday. Lows tonight will be mild in the upper 60s to around 70. As the cold front and main shortwave trough axis approaches on Saturday and combines with daytime heating, greater coverage of convection areawide should result. Likely pops were retained for all by the far west and northwest for Saturday. Marginal to moderate shear and marginal instability are anticipated to develop by early to mid afternoon. A couple of strong storms with locally heavy rain would be the main threat with the storms, though the strongest storms could contain gusty winds. The cold front should cross the area on Saturday night with high pressure starting to build into the area. After the expected rainfall, this should set the stage for some areas of valley fog late Saturday night. With drier air and dewpoints expected to advect in, lows will be near normal for early July. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 412 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2017 A longwave trough will be pushing through the eastern U.S. during the day Sunday. By Monday, models show a bit more zonal flow across KY, however the ECMWF and GFS are showing a shortwave strengthening into an upper level low across the Central Plains Monday into Tuesday, with some weaker shortwaves expected to move across Kentucky during this time as well. This larger shortwave/upper level low will eventually shift eastward and into the Ohio River Valley by Thursday, before absorbing back into the longwave pattern over the east coast on Friday. Overall models are in fair agreement about this, however exact timings and the strength of the shortwave are still in some disagreement. As for sensible weather, a weakening cold front will have moved through eastern KY Saturday night, and should be exiting to the SE by Sunday morning. Surface high pressure and drier weather will take hold during the day Sunday, though high temperatures are still expected to rise back into the mid and upper 80s without a strong push of northerly flow behind the front. The remnants of the dying front to our south could be enough to spawn some showers and thunderstorms during the day Monday, mainly isolated during peak heating. By Tuesday, another weak frontal boundary will push towards the region from the north. This boundary is expected to become hung up along the Ohio River or just north through Wednesday, interacting with the upper level energy moving across the region, and warm/moist southerly flow setting up south of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible both Tuesday and Wednesday across much of KY as a result, dissipating with loss of peak heating overnight. Even after the frontal boundary starts shifting more NE of the area Wednesday into Thursday, the continued warm/moist airmass will interact with the upper level disturbances in place to produce diurnally driven scattered showers and thunderstorms through the end of the forecast period. Highs each day are expected to remain in the mid to upper 80s. Humidity levels are also expected to continue increasing throughout the workweek. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2017 VFR conditions will be seen through around 06z, as isolated showers gradually diminish across the area. A line of showers and thunderstorms will move east across the area between 06 and 09z, with a gradual weakening trend expected. KSYM and KSME stand the better chance of seeing a brief window of MVFR or worse conditions as these storms move in. Ceilings will drop down to MVFR in the wake of the storms from west to east closer to dawn. These lower ceilings will linger through Saturday morning, before raising up to VFR in the afternoon with scattered convection threatening once again. South southwest winds of around 5 kts through the overnight, will gradually veer to the west southwest on Saturday and increase to 5 to 10 kts. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
620 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 An upper trough swinging through western Nebraska this afternoon will move east of the area by this evening. This will keep a slight chance for thunderstorms early evening across the far eastern zones. Otherwise, clearing skies and dry conditions to western Nebraska overnight. Lows tonight very close to previous forecast from the upper 40s northwest to the lower 50s southeast. Light northwest winds this evening will become light and variable overnight. On Saturday, height rises aloft will bring sunny skies and dry conditions. Southwest winds to around 10 mph will mix down 850 mb temperatures from 20-25 celsius, and highs reaching 86 to 89 degrees. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 For Saturday night, a weak disturbance aloft along with a developing low level jet should bring isolated thunderstorms to central Nebraska beginning late evening and overnight. Most area however should remain dry. On Sunday, a frontal boundary will be draped from near Alliance through Broken Bow. While temperatures will very from the upper 80s north of the boundary to the lower 90s to the south, weak convergence near the surface will combine with moderate instability from 2500-400 j/kg near this boundary. Deep layer shear will be adequate to support sustained updrafts and upscale growth of thunderstorms. Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast across the entire area. Depending on the westward extend of thunderstorms, the thunderstorm could persist throughout the night. Current forecast is for thunderstorms to end west of highway 83 by midnight, with a chance overnight for areas to the east. Winds will become south and southeast in the wake of this system on Monday, with highs 85 o 90. A chance for thunderstorms to continue, especially during the afternoon and evening. For Tuesday through Friday, the upper ridge in the Desert Southwest will build into the Central Plains, and suppress thunderstorm development for the most part. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms by Thursday and Friday across portions of the area, as a backdoor front attempts to move into the area. Highs in the lower 90s, should reach the mid 90s by Wednesday and Thursday, especially across the west. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 The latest HRRR and RAP models indicate the isolated showers and thunderstorms will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating around 02z this evening. VFR is expected all areas thereafter, tonight through Saturday afternoon with one exception. The HRRR EXP model suggests afternoon heating may spark isolated showers and thunderstorms across Scntl Neb around 22z Saturday afternoon. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1112 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 ...Forecast Update... Issued 1111 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Line of convection has taken on a more ragged appearance recently with a decrease in lightning activity and slowly warming cloud tops. Isolated pockets of gusty winds still possible, but overall there seems to be a gradual weakening trend. Also have been keeping an eye on thunderstorms approaching Bowling Green. With a more east-west orientation heavy rain could lead to water problems as the line moves east. However it appears that the line has been fairly progressive so far and radar trends show a distinct weakening in the cells. So, no flooding issues with those storms at this time but will continue to monitor. Issued at 932 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Quick update to time the line through the middle portion of the CWA. The line is in an area of upper level divergence, moderate low level moisture transport, and 850 theta-e ridging. Area radars have been showing 40-55kt winds not far off the surface, but those winds have had a difficult time mixing down as the line has been trailing just behind best DCAPE air to the east and weak to moderate low level lapse rates. CIN has been diurnally increasing as well as the sun sets. The line will probably maintain its strength for another hour or so and then weaken as it gets into the Blue Grass. Issued at 650 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 22Z AMDAR sounding toward the west indicated a slight weaker/smaller cap over SDF, but the HRRR/RAP are starting to catch on with their soundings. The trend in the HRRR is still for a majority of the region to get storms this evening/early overnight. Latest radar analysis shows a beefy line coming into Dubois County within the hour, with a trailing outflow boundary slowing trying to get development along it. Still think the worst part of the storm will be closer to the better dynamics in southern Indiana, so will be watching that part of the line to see if it intensifies. Fine tuned the forecast again with this line of convection and to show some clearing/dry rain chances behind it before blending with the previous forecast`s morning rain chances. Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Latest AMDAR sounding indicates the cap is 5-10 degrees stronger in the 600-700 mb range than what the latest RAP is showing. Preliminary GOES-16 low-level water vapor data showing a boundary of moisture moving in from the west that may help to erode some of that cap. Latest HRRR trend is to continue to bring in a line of storms from the west into the Louisville metro in the 8-10 PM range and then weakening eastward toward Lexington in the 11 PM-1 AM range. Have backed off on earlier precip and gone for better chances this evening. Updated forecast out shortly. .Short Term (Now through Saturday Night)... Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 An upper trough and cold front will move through the region tonight. Ahead of these features, a left over MCV was moving east over south central IL this afternoon. Convection that has developed closer to these features and better shear was looking more robust over IL/IN this afternoon. Although bkn cloud cover has limited our instability some, we`ve still been able to build up 1500-2000 j/kg so far with up to 1300 DCAPE. A mid level cap shows up on AMDAR soundings which is likely limiting our convective development currently. However, as the evening wears on and those better triggers and wind shear to our west moving into the area, would expect to see sct-numerous showers/storms between round 7p-midnight. Still anticipating mainly clusters of multicells which could merge into a bkn line. The main storm threats look to be damaging winds and lightning although marginally severe hail isn`t out of the question. After this complex of storms moves through tonight, we should see a relative lull in convection late tonight/early tomorrow morning before potentially another round of convection fires across south central/east central KY along old boundaries tomorrow afternoon. Although there is less confidence in this second round which will depend on where boundaries lay out after the storms tonight, there is potential for a damaging winds/lightning/hail threat again tomorrow where storms occur. Stay abreast of the latest radar and any watches/warnings tonight and tomorrow especially if outdoor activities are planned. Temperatures will remain warm and muggy with highs in the low to mid 80s tomorrow. Lows in the lower 70s tonight will drop back into the 60s tomorrow night. .Long Term (Sunday through Friday)... Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 The pattern will remain active through the next 7 days. While Sunday may be a dry day for most, continued rounds of convection will be possible throughout the coming week as multiple hard to time disturbances move through the Ohio Valley. A cold front passing through Tues/Tues night (the 4th) may provide a better shot at showers/storms to our region. Another front looks to drop south into the region on Sat bringing an enhanced period for convection as well. Outside of several POPs in the 7-day forecast, temps will remain quite warm in the mid to upper 80s for highs. Lows will range through the upper 60s/lower 70s. && .Aviation (00Z TAF Update)... Issued at 706 PM EDT Fri June 30 2017 The main concern at the TAF sites tonight will be the line of storms that is moving in from the west. This line looks to affect SDF around 01-03Z and LEX around 03-05Z. Confidence is lower in it affecting BWG, but will keep it in there as well during the 02-04Z time frame. With the very heavy rain, visibilities are likely to be reduced for a period as the storms move through. Behind the line of storms, clouds should scatter out for a time at all sites. However, the latest guidance then has a MVFR ceiling developing early tomorrow morning at LEX. Another round of showers and storms will move in tomorrow morning at BWG and by mid day at LEX. There is less confidence in storms affecting SDF, so have decided not to mention it in the TAFs there at this time. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........RJS/13 Short Term.....AMS Long Term......AMS Aviation.......EER
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
919 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high will remain in place overnight. A cold front across the Upper Midwest will pass through the area Saturday before stalling to the south Sunday and Monday. The boundary will dissipate Tuesday while high pressure develops over the Atlantic. Low pressure may impact the region Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Thunderstorms developed in a couple of areas late this afternoon... eastern West Virginia/northern Maryland and a more remote but robust cell that tracked northeast through the Virginia foothills. Recent trends have been on the decline, and with the loss of daytime heating, believe that will continue to be the case. While instability will be minimal overnight, there are some indications (via RAP) that there will be a few hundred joules of lingering CAPE, with inhibition eroding. Hence, RAP developing a new round of precipitation southeast of a Waynesboro-Alexandria line. HRRR also attempting to develop a couple of showers, but much more suppressed. Will increase overnight PoPs, but not more than 20-30 percent. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Area could use some rain, and Saturday will probably be the best opportunity as a short wave/cold front track across the northeastern US. As far as severe the better possibilities will also be to our north as well: northern VA to the Mason-Dixon Line will have a period of "skinny CAPE/weak shear," further south severe indices are even weaker. We have likely afternoon thunderstorms across the north and mention of possible severe weather in the HWO. Highs around 90. Precipitation chances will taper off rapidly Saturday night. Lows again in the lower 70s across much of the area. Sunday should see high pressure over the area. Dewpoints should be a few degrees lower than Saturday helping it to feel a little more comfortable. Highs 85-90. And no problems expected Sunday night. Lows 65-70 except warmer in the cities/colder in the Highlands. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will build over the Great Lakes as a boundary approaches our region from the north Monday into Monday night. Mostly dry conditions early on Monday, then a few showers and thunderstorms possible mainly north of our CWA and over higher terrain in the afternoon and into the evening. The boundary will stall near or south our area into Tuesday as a low pressure develops south of the Great Lakes. This low will move east- northeast and lift the front into Tuesday evening. Both GFS and ECMWF keeps dry conditions over the metro areas through Tuesday afternoon. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible on 4th of July mainly in the afternoon and evening. Precipitation chances increase overnight Tuesday and into Thursday as low pressure moves across our north and southwesterly flow increases moisture over our region. The low will move off the New England coast Thursday. High pressure builds into the region Thursday night and into Friday. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Guidance still depicting period of low ceilings before sunrise. There are some indications that IFR possible, but will reduced confidence, have limited restrictions to MVFR. Any clouds (or fog) should lift by mid morning. Afternoon/evening convection will be probable, especially from DC northward. The question will be in terms of point impact. Have introduced VCTS for the period of peak heating. If an airfield is affected, restrictions will be brief (less than an hour), but potentially aob IFR. Dry/VFR conditions expected early on Monday. Maybe a few showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon as a boundary approaches. A few showers and thunderstorms possible again Tuesday afternoon into the evening. Sub-VFR periods possible overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. && .MARINE... Southerly channeling has brought frequent gusts to 20 knot on both the Potomac and Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay. Trends support dropping the Small Craft Advisory for the upper Potomac. Small Craft Advisory will continue on the remainder of the waters overnight, then all waters again Saturday. Thunderstorms will be possible on the waters Saturday afternoon and evening, some with strong wind gusts. High pressure over the region Sunday. Winds should be below SCA values. Daytime heating/southerly flow SCA conditions may occur during the first part of the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A southerly flow will continue to cause elevated water levels through Saturday. Minor flooding is not expected for most areas since the flow should be just west of south. && .CLIMATE... June was much drier than normal for most of the area. Below is a list of driest Junes on record at our three first-order climate sites. DCA 1. 0.86 inches (1940) 2. 0.95 inches (1088) 3. 1.13 inches (2017) BWI 1.40 inches this June ranked as 14th driest on record IAD 1. 0.52 inches (1988) 2. 0.94 inches (1966) 3. 1.14 inches (1985) 4. 1.28 inches (2017) All climate data are considered preliminary until reviewed by the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>534- 537>543. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ535- 536. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...HTS SHORT TERM...Woody! LONG TERM...IMR AVIATION...HTS/Woody!/IMR MARINE...HTS/Woody! TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Woody! CLIMATE...DH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1014 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid southwest flow prevails ahead of a cold front that crosses Saturday. Drier post frontal environment Sunday and Monday. Warm and humid with increasing rain chances mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1010 PM Friday... Reduced POPs again for the rest of this evening and tonight. Near term models continue to indicated that the line of showers and storms approaching from the west will struggle to make it into the dry mid levels. Left mainly scattered showers and storms in for now, but even that may be generous per HRRR and RAP. However, NAMNest and WRFs are a bit more robust with the incoming convection. As of 220 PM Friday... Even though there are no defined boundaries in the very warm, moist and unstable airmass in place over the area this afternoon, the main concern continues to be the well defined mid level dry slot from northeast KY, thru most of WV to the west of the mountains. Still looking at a quite unstable airmass per forecast soundings for pop up thunderstorms this afternoon, but not widespread organized storms, and latest data indicated this is just beginning at 230 PM. Because of the mid level drying and precip loading potential, have included gusty winds with these storms. These storms should diminish with heating this evening. However, the more organized features begin to affect us tonight and Saturday, with the models in good agreement. One feature is an upper level disturbance, well out ahead of a cold front, that will bring a band of showers and storms across the area tonight. Given that it is night time, these will be elevated with severe potential limited at best, looking for about a 2-4 hour period of convection with this feature tonight. This feature will be exiting the mountains early Saturday morning. The next feature will be the cold front itself that will move east across the area Saturday afternoon. Upper air support will be weaker with the front, lots of clouds will be present, and some of the best moisture will be kicked out by the overnight upper disturbance. But even with these negative factors, the diurnal factor is there to at least go with a high chance for convection. Pops will be diminishing at least in the west Saturday afternoon. Conditions will be quite warm and muggy this period until the front passes. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 210 PM Friday... Largely a post frontal environment Sunday, drier with only isolated convection and temperatures back around normal with lower dewpoints. This will allow lower 60s across the lowland areas to come back into play Sunday night in the brief post frontal environment before return flow heading into the extended forecast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 210 PM Friday... Upper level wave ejecting out of the mid Mississippi Valley will bring the next organized convective chance, but the surface low/baroclinic zone will push northward allowing the warm sector into the CWA and low end POPs. In the end, it will be a cold frontal issue with the storms and ultimately a Wednesday time frame before the appreciable increases in the POPs. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 730 PM Friday... Some isolated showers around this evening should diminish after sunset. Clouds will generally be on the increase as a mid to upper level feature moves through. Some uncertainty as to how much of this will survive into tonight, but with the mid to upper support think there will still be enough coverage to warrant mentioning precip and VCTS in the TAFs. Also expecting ceilings to drop into MVFR late tonight into Saturday morning. A cold front slides through Saturday with additional showers and storms expected. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of lower conditions and storms tonight may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 07/01/17 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms into Saturday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
632 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 .AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ Look for challenging flight weather to develop, during the next 12 hours. The best area for thunderstorms is across the Big Country this evening. Thus, the Abilene terminal will continue to include vicinity thunderstorms, beginning around 04Z and continuing until around 09Z. Elsewhere, returning stratus later tonight will again bring MVFR ceilings to most of West Central Texas south of Interstate 20. Conditions should return to VFR, at all terminals, by 18Z tomorrow. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Saturday) A shortwave trough continues to move across the Central Plains this afternoon and evening bringing a weak cold front just northwest of our CWA. At 3 PM, scattered showers have developed near Alpine and Fort Stockton along the dryline. Further development of showers and thunderstorms is expected late this afternoon and evening as the cold front moves south. Models are fairly inconsistent with how far south the thunderstorms are expected to go in the 7 PM to 1 AM time frame. The Texas Tech WRF and HRRR show a large line of thunderstorms moving as far south as northern Tom Green County. However, the NAM and the Rap tend to favor the activity being more scattered and located mainly north of the I-20 corridor. Therefore, a blend of the two was preferred with rain chances being focused mainly north of a Richland Springs to Robert Lee line. Some of these storms may become strong to severe as CAPE values near 2500 to 4000 j/kg are combined with 25-35 kts of 0-6 km shear. Damaging winds are the main threat tonight, however, some large hail may be possible as well. The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook is in agreement with this forecast as the Big Country, Sterling County, and Coke County are in a marginal risk. It is also worth noting that a slight risk has been extended into part of Haskell and Throckmorton counties. LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Friday) Upper ridging will continue to bring subsidence and dry conditions the first half of next week. However, an upper trough will develop mid week over Texas and Oklahoma, bringing a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the Big Country (and perhaps farther south in the Concho Valley Wednesday night and Thursday). By Friday, upper ridging reestablishes itself with showers and thunderstorm chances becoming remote. The main concern next week will be the heat, with highs in the upper 90s to around 100 each day, and lows in the lower/mid 70s. Gusty winds and dangerous lightning will be the main concerns in thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 75 94 75 96 / 50 20 10 5 San Angelo 76 97 74 100 / 20 10 5 5 Junction 76 95 73 96 / 5 10 5 10 Brownwood 75 95 73 96 / 50 20 5 10 Sweetwater 74 93 73 97 / 40 20 10 10 Ozona 75 94 72 95 / 5 10 5 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$