Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/30/17

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1034 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... As a warm front pushes northeast across our area this evening into tonight, showers and thunderstorms are expected, mainly for areas north of the Capital Region. Behind the warm front, a warmer and more humid air mass will be in place for Friday into Saturday with additional showers and thunderstorms each day, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Some of the storms could be strong to severe and produce heavy rainfall. A cold front should cross the region by Sunday, with somewhat cooler and slightly less humid conditions moving in for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 1030 PM EDT, An area of heavy rain and convection has developed across northern NY and is tracking eastward. Some of these storms have moved through the far northern reaches of Herkimer and Hamilton counties with the bulk of the activity staying just to the north of the forecast area. However, if the heavy rain shifts southward, flash flooding could become a concern as storms have been producing an inch to inch and a half per hour. Additionally, lightning has been frequent with many of these storms so have maintained chances for thunderstorms throughout the night. Otherwise, freshened up the hourly temps and pops to reflect most recent trends and sent updates to NDFD and web servers. Prev Disc... As of 730 PM EDT, Scattered showers continue to track across the Adirondacks and Lake George-Saratoga region this evening. A few thunderstorms can be seen upstream and may hold together long enough for a few rumbles of thunder later on tonight. Due to the ongoing shower activity, there is a stark contrast in temperatures across eastern New York with lower 60s in the Adirondacks versus upper 70s in the mid-Hudson Valley. So have adjusted hourly temps to reflect these differences. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. Prev Disc... As of 419 PM EDT...A warm front is in the process of lifting northward across upstate New York. For the areas south of the Capital Region, winds have switched to a southerly direction and dewpoints have been rising into the lower 60s, while more clouds are in place for northern areas with cooler and less humid conditions at this time. Ahead of this boundary, areas of rain showers have been sliding eastward from western and central New York and Lake Ontario into the Adirondacks and points eastward. On and off showers look to continue into the evening hours for areas north of the Mohawk Valley and Capital Region. Although most of these showers have been light (rainfall rates under one tenth of an inch per hour), a few locally moderate to heavy bursts (up to a quarter inch per hour) are possible. Cannot rule out some thunder (especially for after 00z), but any thunder appears to elevated thanks to a stable layer within the boundary layer, so while no severe weather is anticipated, cannot totally rule out some rumbles from time to time. Hi-res guidance (including the 3km HRRR and NAM) suggest the best chance for rain showers and/or thunder will be through about midnight or so. After that time, showers will be more scattered in nature, as the better forcing starts to lift northeast of the region, as we get into the warm sector. Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy for this evening into the overnight, with the most breaks across southern areas. It will be increasingly humid and staying mild through the overnight hours thanks to the persistent southerly flow, with lows only falling into the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible Friday and Saturday... With our area fully in the warm sector, a warm and humid air mass will be in place for Friday. With some breaks of sunshine expected, highs should reach into the low to mid 80s for valley areas, with dewpoints well into the 60s. Although there won`t be any major surface boundaries nearby, subtle disturbances sliding within the flow at 500 hpa, along with lake-breeze boundaries, could allow for some convection to get going on early Friday afternoon over central New York. This activity should shift eastward into eastern NY and western New England for the rest of the afternoon and evening hours. With plenty of instability in place (at least 1500 J/kg of CAPE for many areas) and 0-6 km bulk shear of 30-40 kts (especially for northern areas), some of the thunderstorms may organize into small lines or bows and be strong to severe. Will highlight this threat within both the HWO and forecast zones, with gusty winds being the main threat. With PWATs also expected to be near 2.00 inches, heavy rainfall will a threat with any thunderstorms as well, any localized flooding will be possible due to any slow moving or training thunderstorms. Activity should wane for Friday evening thanks to the loss of daytime heating, but it will remain muggy and mild for Friday night with lows in the upper 60s to near 70. Another round of convection looks to occur once again on Saturday, and this round may be more widespread thanks to better forcing (a nearby pre- frontal trough). Again, enough instability/shear looks to be in place for storms to be strong to severe, so will highlight this day also as well. Once again, gusty winds and heavy rainfall look to be the main threat. Temps should well into the 80s on Saturday and dewpoints will continue to be very sticky, with values near 70 F. The cold front will be getting closer for Saturday night, although it may not cross until during the day on Sunday. Some lingering showers and embedded thunder is possible, but the severe threat looks to be limited to just the afternoon and evening on Saturday. Lows will continue to be mild ahead of the front, with readings in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Things start out only mildly unsettled as a weak cold front passes through on Sunday. A second weak cold front will bring perhaps some more showers on Monday. Outside of these two periods, things will be mainly dry as high pressure builds in. High temperatures will range from the upper 60s to mid 80s Sunday and Monday...the upper 60s to lower 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows will be mainly in the 50s and lower 60s...very close to normal. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A warm front will continue to lift north through the region this evening from the southwest. A warm and humid air mass will become entrenched across the region Friday, along with some scattered, mainly afternoon thunderstorms. Generally VFR conditions are expected across all TAF sites tonight. Some showers with embedded thunder will affect KGFL overnight tonight. These showers may intermittently also affect KALB/KPSF between 03Z-12Z/Fri. Brief periods of MVFR/IFR could occur if the cores of these showers/storms pass over a location. Some MVFR Vsbys could occur after any showers/storms occur as well due to increased low level moisture. For Friday, mainly VFR conditions are expected in the morning, with areas of mid level clouds likely. By the afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, and may briefly reduce conditions to MVFR/IFR at times. Winds will be south to southwest at 5-10 KT through Friday, with some gusts of 15-20 KT possible this afternoon. There is a possibility of low level wind shear tonight at KPOU if surface winds decrease to less than 8 KT, since winds aloft around 2000 FT AGL remain from the south/southwest and increase to 30-40 KT. Outlook... Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday Night: Slight Chance of SHRA. Independence Day: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather issues are anticipated over the next few days. There will be showers and thunderstorms moving throughout the region on both tomorrow and Saturday, some with locally heavy rainfall. With a humid air mass in place, RH values will elevated each day with a south to southwest wind at 5 to 10 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... A warm front will continue to move northward across the region this evening into tonight. Some rain showers and perhaps some embedded thunderstorms will occur for areas north of the Mohawk Valley and Capital Region. Although most of the rain will be light, some occasional moderate to heavy bursts are possible, but no flooding is expected at this time. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday and Saturday as well, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. With a warm and humid air mass in place, any thunderstorm will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall once again. Some showers or t-storms may be possible on Sunday as well, although the cold front will be pushing through. It looks like mainly drier weather will build in for early next week, although a few showers cannot be ruled out. By the end of the weekend, the heaviest rainfall looks to be across areas north and west of Albany, where basin average amounts look to be at least one to two inches of rainfall, with less rainfall south and east. However, thunderstorms may result in locally higher totals in some spots throughout the HSA. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis/JVM SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...ELH AVIATION...KL/JVM FIRE WEATHER...Frugis HYDROLOGY...Frugis
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
652 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Early this afternoon a weak surface boundary extended from northern Iowa through southern Wisconsin. Extensive anvil blow-off from convection across Missouri has somewhat limited diurnal destabilization south of the front but MLCAPE has been rising into the 1000-2000 J/kg range south of the front. Surface analysis suggests some low-level convergence over northern Iowa near the front/outflow boundary within the instability axis with some convection beginning to fire in this area. High-res models do indicate this area as the focus for continued convective development this afternoon. This convection may extend into northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. Low-level wind fields are very weak with some slight increase in deep layer wind fields by late today, allowing deep layer shear to reach 30-35 kts early this evening. Some hail/gusty winds/brief heavy rains are possible across northeast IA/southwest WI if any storms form. This evening a shortwave trough currently evident on water vapor imagery over South Dakota will move eastward towards the region. High-res models generally indicate convection firing in western Iowa and eastern Nebraska late today and spreading eastward this evening. Model solutions have shown some variability on the placement of this convection through the evening, but these storms may approach from the west later this evening. Unless storms grow upscale into a more organized complex, would expect any storms to be weakening. Showers and a few storms will remain possible overnight into Friday morning as upper shortwave trough advances across the area. The shortwave will drag the front east of the area on Friday with broad upper troughing developing over the Upper Midwest. Behind the departing wave, additional diurnally driven showers/storms are possible during the afternoon/evening associated with weak upper shortwaves within the broader troughing. CAPE could rise into the 1000-2000 J/kg rise with the drier push of air not arriving until Saturday. However, deep layer shear will be weakening, limiting a severe threat, with mainly pulse type storms expected. Temps will remain a bit below average with highs mainly in the 70s to near 80. Showers/storms should diminish with loss of heating during the evening. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Northwest flow aloft will persist through the weekend with a few upper shortwave troughs rotating through over the region. Surface high pressure will be building into the area on Saturday. A few showers/storms are possible. especially over north-central Wisconsin, but with weak instability and just subtle forcing from any weak impulses, any showers should remain isolated. A stronger upper wave dropping into the northern Great Lakes will help drive a cold front south on Sunday. 29.12Z models indicate a corridor of higher MLCAPE of 1000-2500 J/kg extending from the central plains northeastward ahead of the front with around 40 kts of deep shear by Sunday afternoon/evening. This could provide a better opportunity of scattered storms, especially across the southern half of the area, and will be a time worth watching heading into the weekend. For much of next week upper ridging is expected to gradually build eastward into the Midwest. This should result in temps near seasonal averages gradually warming towards the end of the week. Despite the developing upper ridge, 29.12Z models indicate the potential for an upper shortwave trough to undercut the developing longwave ridge somewhere across the Midwest, serving as a focus for precipitation. Confidence is quite low on this evolution at this time, and will only mention some low rain chances at this point. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 652 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Watching an area of showers and storms over northwest Iowa that is ahead of a short wave trough moving across southern South Dakota. This wave is shown by both the 29.21Z RAP and 29.18Z NAM to continue moving east but weaken as it does. This trend is also reflected by the 29.21Z HRRR which brings the convection east and then rapidly weakens it east of Interstate 35 with just some showers possibly reaching the forecast sites around midnight. For now, will handle this with a VCSH for both airports and update if the activity looks to be stronger as it comes in. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected with a mid level ceiling expected through the period. This should preclude any fog formation overnight despite having plenty of low level moisture and light winds. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 River flood warnings continue along the Turkey River near Elkader and Garber following yesterday`s heavy rains. The crest has occurred along the Turkey at Elkader while downstream near Garber the river is near its crest just below moderate flood stage. Falling stages are expected to continue. Scattered showers and storms are possible at times late today into Friday with brief heavy rainfall possible with any storms. However, widespread heavy rainfall is unlikely. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...04 HYDROLOGY...JM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
926 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 920 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Cold front was on a line from Minot to Baker Montana and pushing south and east. Convection had ended west of Minot and down along the Montana Border. With surface low pressure in place, the associated front, and mid level wave, cannot fully count on showers and isolated storms completely dissipating. Have continued low pops for the central and east and in the grids have showed a trend of at least decreasing pops and clouds even central as the night wears on. UPDATE Issued at 606 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to move southeast across the region along a frontal system. While a few stronger storms remain possible, the overall trend is for storms weakening limiting the overall severe threat over the last hour or two. Populated POPs based on latest HRRR runs which seem to capture the activity the best thus far. Expect most if not all activity to be off to our south and east by 06-08Z. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Cold front moving through western North Dakota this afternoon will be the focus for increasing thunderstorms across west into central North Dakota this afternoon and evening. While the threat for severe weather is low, an isolated large hail or gusty wind event is possible. Tonight the trend will diminish then end after midnight for all but the James River valley. Showers will linger across the Valley Friday then end by afternoon. Highs Friday will be cool, in the upper 60s and mid 70s. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 The focus for the long term will be the very warm temperatures expected from the Fourth of July through Thursday. Highs will easily reach the mid 90s across the region with the GEFS plumes indicating the potential for highs in excess of 100. With little rain in sight the drought will likely worsen. With a broad ridge in place its likely any weak cold front will by dry and provide little relief from the hot weather. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 920 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 A cold front from Minot North Dakota to Baker Montana will push slowly south and east through this Thursday night. Expect scattered showers and the small possibility of a thunderstorm ahead of the front. Localized MVFR ceilings in and near showers but for the most part VFR through the forecast period. After 301400Z only the KJMS TAF site will still have a chance for convection. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JPM SHORT TERM...WAA LONG TERM...WAA AVIATION...JPM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
646 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .UPDATE... 00Z Aviation Discussion. && .SHORT TERM... Fairly widespread showers and a few thunderstorms were moving northward across Central Alabama this afternoon. This trend should persist into the early evening hours. Looking at the hourly RAP data, bulk shear is minimal/0-1 and 0-3 SRH is minimal, SBCape is in the 1000-2000 range, multiple level lapse rates are poor but winds just off the surface are stronger with some directional shear. It appears that a storm was rotating over Gardendale with a potential funnel cloud, but this type of activity will be very few a far between. Even with very little lightning and no significant height, some of the isolated storms looked like they had some shelf clouds, indicative of some wind gusts. No severe will be mentioned at this time, but a gust of 30 mph in the stronger showers or storms is possible. Due to the significant moisture in place, a brief torrential shower is also possible. A mid level low will inch northward from southern Louisiana and lose its identity the next 12 hours or so. The atmosphere was nearly saturated due to the tropical airmass that has invaded Central Alabama from the Bay of Campeche. Therefore, rain chances will remain high into Friday. 75 Previous short-term discussion:Today and tonight. Well the dry weather had to come to an end, as we see a series of shortwaves begin to move into the region. The shortwave that will impact the area today is coming out of the Gulf of Mexico near the LA coastline. This will help to increase the southerly flow across the area and really pump in the rich gulf moisture during the day. We will see an increase in shower and storm activity through the day. Areas most likely to see rain this morning will be along and south of the US 80/I-85 corridor and then activity will spread northward quickly through the afternoon. This wave looks to move out by 10 pm in the east and then we will await a second shortwave that will develop during the afternoon along the MS/LA border and slide eastward during the evening hours. At this time it appears that the best chances will be after midnight and move into the sw first and then slide northeastward through the morning. Looks like this may be a fairly widespread rain event with more or less scattered thunderstorms, so pops are quite high for an overnight system. 16 .LONG TERM... Friday through Wednesday. Fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing Friday morning as the shortwave trough interacts with tropical PWATs over 2 inches and a 25-30 kt LLJ. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible which will have to be monitored with creeks and streams remaining elevated in the wake of Cindy. Best rain chances will shift towards the eastern half of the state by midday with decreased coverage in the west towards afternoon due to warming/drying aloft caused by subsidence behind the shortwave and rising mid-level heights. Rain will keep high temperatures down around 80 in East Alabama with temperatures rebounding in West Alabama to the upper 80s. Rain chances should largely diminish Friday night. For Saturday, 1000-500 mb mean RH values will be lower than previous days with PWATs being lower but still elevated at around 1.7 inches. The upper-level flow will still be broadly cyclonic due to a trough centered over the Great Lakes, while a frontal zone will be located from Oklahoma to the Ohio Valley. Guidance is hinting that at least outflow and/or an MCV from an MCS may move in from the northwest Saturday morning. Therefore will maintain the likely PoPs across much of the area, but did decrease them very slightly in southeast Alabama closer to a strengthening mid-level ridge located over the northeast Gulf/FL. Will have to monitor for at least some strong storms depending on how things evolve upstream due to steep mid- level lapse rates associated with an EML and dry air aloft contributing to high DCAPE. Westerly low- level flow will also result in warming temperatures, with heat index values approaching 100 in the southern counties. Sunday into next week the forecast area will mainly be under northwest flow aloft between troughing over the northeast US/eastern Canada and subtropical ridging over Texas and the Gulf. A moist air mass will remain in place. Rain chances and strong storm possibilities each day will depend on weak shortwaves in the northwest flow aloft which are typically difficult to track/time out far in advance. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF Discussion. Periods of rain and possible thunder will continue tonight and tomorrow, affecting all terminals in Central Alabama. There will likely be a period this evening where coverage decreases and cigs drop to IFR, before activity return to the area. Expect continued periods of rain through much of the day tomorrow. Winds will be out of the southeast tonight and shift to the southwest tomorrow afternoon. Rainfall could be heavy at times, reducing vis to IFR and brief periods of LIFR. 14 && .FIRE WEATHER... Widespread rain chances return today and tomorrow, and remain elevated through the weekend. There are no fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 70 80 72 87 71 / 70 80 40 60 30 Anniston 71 80 72 88 71 / 70 80 40 60 30 Birmingham 70 81 73 88 72 / 70 80 30 60 30 Tuscaloosa 72 85 74 91 73 / 70 80 30 60 30 Calera 70 83 73 88 73 / 60 80 30 60 30 Auburn 70 83 71 87 73 / 60 70 30 50 30 Montgomery 71 86 73 91 73 / 80 60 20 50 30 Troy 70 86 72 90 73 / 70 70 20 50 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
834 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 833 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Convection increasing again as expected as the lift associated with the shortwave trough arrives. This should keep bands of showers and storms around the Front Range into the early morning hours, and on the plains most of the night. Intensity should be less with cooler temperatures, although there is still enough moisture to produce some decent updrafts. Cooler air still slated to arrive overnight. It has looked a little slow coming across Wyoming, though the pressure rises are now outrunning the temperature gradient and are into southern Wyoming. At this point, we expect some enhancement of the north wind behind the trough in the early morning hours, but the higher dew points and cooler air behind the trough will lag a bit behind. This should be get here near or maybe a little after sunrise. This leaves the low cloud and drizzle forecast in some doubt if it hasn`t saturated yet by sunrise. At this point it still looks like a pretty good chance of at least the low clouds and some chance of drizzle or light showers, so I will leave this alone for now. Only minor changes to the forecast details at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 338 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Strong thunderstorm development has occurred on the Palmer Divide this afternoon with hail up to golf ball size in Lincoln County. Weaker and more high based thunderstorm activity has been moving over Larimer and Weld Counties with more gusty winds than rain. Northern Colorado remains under cyclonic westerly flow aloft with an embedded short wave trough aloft that will move out of the mountains later tonight. HRRR model runs have been showing a band of storms moving out over the urban corridor after 9 PM. These storms should produce more rainfall than this afternoon`s high based storms. After that area of storms moves through, moist upslope flow will continue through tomorrow morning. Stratus and low clouds are expected to develop along with areas of drizzle, especially near the foothills. Cooler conditions will prevail through tomorrow, but soundings show the afternoon airmass will begin to de-stabilize with CAPE values between 700 and 1300 j/kg. The NAM shows an upper trough moving over northeast Colorado in the afternoon as the upper air pattern amplifies over Idaho and Nevada. A round of thunderstorms may develop early in the afternoon and then sweep eastward as drier air begins moving in from the west. Upper level jet dynamics from a departing jet may also help to organize the afternoon thunderstorm activity. Cooler temperatures will be the other story of the day with high temperatures on the plains only in the lower to mid 70s. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 338 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Upper level high pressure building over the Rocky Mountain Region will bring dry and warmer weather to north central and northeastern Colorado over the weekend. There may be just enough moisture to produce isolated late afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms...mainly over the mountains and Palmer Divide on Saturday. On Sunday...a slight increase in mid level moisture may result in a few more showers and storms across north central and northeastern Colorado. Inverted V soundings suggest that the storms will be high based with little rain and gusty winds. However...higher dewpoints along the eastern border...combined with an upper level disturbance...may result in a few stronger storms across the far northeastern zones during the late afternoon and evening hours. On Monday...models shows a short wave trough and associated cold front moving across northeastern Colorado. A stable airmass behind the front should limit precipitation chances across much of the plains. However...greater instability across far eastern sections of the state...combined with lift from the shortwave may result in a better chance for storms in those areas. A large upper level ridge of high pressure is forecasted to rebuild over the Rocky Mountain Region from Tuesday through Thursday...which should bring mostly dry weather along with warmer temperatures temperatures to all of north central and northeastern Colorado. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 833 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Another round of showers and thunderstorms will move over the Denver area through about 09z. Conditions will still be mainly VFR, though some lower ceilings down to around 5000 ft AGL are possible. Lower clouds are likely to form early Friday morning, with areas of MVFR ceilings between 11z and 17z. Localized IFR ceilings are possible for a couple of hours. Ceilings will gradually lift during the day Friday, though instrument approaches to KDEN may be needed into the afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are expected again Friday afternoon with temporarily lowered ceilings and wind gusts to 30 knots possible at times. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Gimmestad SHORT TERM...Dankers LONG TERM...Kalina AVIATION...Gimmestad
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
722 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure near the Mid Atlantic coast will move further into the western Atlantic tonight. Increasing moisture from the Gulf will bring mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms Friday into the weekend. Scattered afternoon and evening convection will persist next week as Bermuda high pressure off the coast brings typical summer weather to the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As surface ridge shifts offshore....moisture has slowly increased across the area with precipitable water ranging from around 2 inches in the CSRA to 1.5 inches in the Pee Dee. Moisture will continue to increase overnight ahead of short wave trough. Instability remains weak across the region and convection has been limited northeast of the CSRA. the latest hrrr suggested convection will remain limited through the early evening. The short wave trough over southwest Ga at 23z will move over the region tonight. The strongest moisture flux convergence and isentropic lift appears to be strongest to the west of the area through much of the overnight. the latest HRRR guidance suggest convection will move across the region overnight but weaken due to limited instability and forcing. So will continue to carry high chance pops in the CSRA this evening with a gradient to lower pops northward. Cannot drop pops later tonight with upper trough approaching and deep moisture over the region so will hold on to some mention of rain throughout the night. Weak instability and shear minimize the threat of severe weather. Widespread stratus is expected to develop late tonight and blanket the forecast area which should have some impact on overnight lows. Expect min temps to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the area. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Disorganized mid level low will continuing pushing moisture into the forecast area from the Gulf Coast...however dynamics in the mid and upper levels will remain weak. Pwat values Friday will be 2.1 to 2.2 inches with moderate instability and afternoon high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. Isentropic ascent will also increase over the area resulting in increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours with likely showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon. Moisture will remain over the region Friday night with chance pops diminishing toward daybreak Saturday. Dynamics will remain weak on Saturday...however with a bit more heating pushing temperatures around 90 expect another round of diurnal convection. Convection will dissipate Saturday night as the moisture begins sliding away from the region and drier air moves in. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Models are in good agreement through early next week with some differences from mid week onward. Weak surface boundary will linger near the region Sunday through Tuesday with southeasterly winds pushing moisture back into the region Wednesday and Thursday. Upper level ridge will build over the eastern US over the weekend with temperatures moving back into the mid 90s through the middle of the week. With moderate moisture and warm temperatures expect slight chance to low chances of convection through the long term. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure center and driest air east of the terminals. A SE low level flow, and an upper shortwave approaching from the SW, has led to an increase in atmospheric moisture over the central and western forecast area (FA). Most recent NUCAPS soundings and SPC mesoanalysis indicating generally weak instability across the central Midlands, but moderate instabilities along with precipitable water (PW) values near 2 inches or higher, generally from the Savannah river westward. Radar mosaic indicating weakening band of showers near the Savannah river which appear to be struggling to hold together as it encounters drier air. More substantial shower and thunderstorm activity is still to our west over GA. Latest high resolution models indicate this activity will gradually weaken as it shifts ENE into our FA later tonight with the shortwave. Will handle the activity later tonight with tempo SHRA. Outside of precipitation and associated restrictions, continued low level moistening and precipitation may present a threat for lowering CIGs tonight into early Friday morning. Latest guidance indicating MVFR to IFR CIGS late tonight. A gradual return to VFR is anticipated Friday morning to midday. A very moist atmosphere in place Friday, along with diurnal heating, is expected to lead to scattered mainly late afternoon and evening thunderstorms. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/morning stratus/fog, along with scattered mainly afternoon/evening thunderstorms expected. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1042 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure to the north will extend across the area tonight and Friday. A surface trough will develop inland on Friday and prevail through the weekend. Atlantic high pressure will then build in for the early to middle part of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 1035 PM: A band of weakening showers/rain was over SE GA, slowly swinging to the NE. Latest run of the HRRR indicated that the current activity will continue to weaken through midnight. Activity may increase slightly late tonight as forcing from a mid level S/W passes over the forecast area. I will keep PoPs going through the night, but will attempt some detail to the timing and placement. Otherwise, the forecast will feature mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions and light SSE winds. As of 955 PM: An area of light to moderate rain was lifting north across SE GA, a few patches of rain was over the marine zones. I will update the forecast to adjust PoP placement and timing. The mention of TSRA could be lower, but I will continue to use SCHC. As of 740 PM: Latest SPC mesoscale analysis indicated little to no normalized CAPE across the forecast area. KCLX indicates that deep convection has generally ceased across the CWA, isolated showers were over the Altamaha River Valley. I will adjust PoPs lower, primarily north of the Edisto Basin. Previous Discussion: Tonight: A short wave ridge will lifts NE, allowing for a short wave trough in SW GA and the FL panhandle to arrive during the late evening and overhead within the SW flow aloft. Simultaneously at the surface we find high pressure north of Bermuda that slides further east, but expands back to the W-SW across much of the forecast area. During this transition there could be the formation of a subtle inverted trough just off the SE coast, but otherwise the general synoptic flow will be SE veering to S late. This will continue to advect deeper moisture into the region, with PWat`s that are already 2" or greater south of the Savannah River to encompass the entire CWFA before 12Z Friday. While we will lose much of the diurnal convection by sunset, our attention then shifts to two locations during the night. The first will be a cluster of convection that is found in S-SW GA early this evening. This arrives in combination with the short wave aloft around 10 pm near the Altamaha River basin as it lifts NE, reaching near the Savannah River around 12-1 am and then into SC thereafter. It is during the post midnight period where low level convergence from off the Atlantic, plus a boost from isentropic ascent leads to marine induced convection merges with the convection coming in from the SW. Since there is no consensus with the models we prefer to show nothing more than scattered PoP`s during the night time hours. However, it is likely that higher PoP`s will be required once trends become better defined, especially if the cluster of storms holds together as it approaches. Plenty of cloud cover will prevail, with the formation of late night stratus/stratocumulus. This could result in some reduction in surface visibilities, but condensation pressure are not low enough to add fog to the forecast. The extensive clouds plus the warm SE-S flow only allows for min temps in the lower and middle 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... A shortwave aloft will exit the region Friday before essentially flat ridging fills in for the rest of the weekend. Broad Atlantic high pressure, with a ridge axis extending just south of the area, will remain in control at the surface through the period. Highest PWATs (over 2 inches) will be in place through the day Friday as efficient moisture transport continues in southerly low level flow and proximity to shortwave aloft keeps modest dynamically-driven instability in place. Have maintained above climo POPs through the day Friday, especially north of the I-16. Saturday and Sunday look like typical summertime airmass days, with sufficient moisture and instability in place to support afternoon thunderstorms initiating mainly along the sea breeze and outflow boundaries, with storm coverage looking a bit less Sunday compared to Saturday owing to increasing upper level subsidence and a more westerly component to the synoptic low level flow. Storm type should be mainly pulse, with overall severe threat is low owing mainly to unimpressive instability. Temps will be on the increase through the period owing to the afore mentioned increasing subsidence and backing low level flow. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will prevail in the Atlantic while a surface trough persists inland. Southerly flow around the high will keep plenty of moisture advecting into the Southeast during this time period. The result will be the typical summertime shower/thunderstorm pattern. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions should prevail across the terminals through the 0Z period. However, it appears that VCSH will be possible near KSAV this evening and overnight. Both the KCHS and KSAV TAFs will feature PROB30 between 20z-24z Friday for TSRA with brief restrictions. Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible in afternoon showers/thunderstorms at both terminals into early next week. && .MARINE... Tonight: A 10125 mb high to the north of Bermuda slides further east and strengthens 1-2 mb by morning. Its associated ridge axis extends W-SW across the local waters and into a large part of the SE and Gulf of Mexico. While there could be the formation of a weak inverted trough late over or near the area, the synoptic flow that starts out from the E at or below 15 kt veers around to the SE at or below 10 kt. Seas will average 2-3 ft throughout. Isolated convection this evening will increase into at least the scattered range overnight. Friday through Tuesday: Mainly light to moderate west to southwest breeze will persist through the period as the marine areas remain on the northern periphery of a ridge axis. Waves mainly 2-3 feet in small background swell and minor local windswell, through occasional 4 ft waves are possible for the offshore Georgia waters. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...NED SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NED MARINE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1151 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure off the eastern seaboard will set up a warmer and more humid airflow for the next several days. A cold front on Saturday will bring a brief break in the humidity for the second half of the weekend into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Deep layer moisture continues to increase over central and western PA this evening...focused along the OH/PA border along the eastern periphery of 850 mb 35-40kt LLJ. Showers and isold thunder have blossomed over the last few hours over Northwest PA, and isold activity has now spread into my Northern Mountains. Sct pops will hold for most overnight, with highest POPs over the Northwest mountains where forcing is strongest. Other than isolated to scattered showers/storm, mainly west and north, it will be a warm- muggy overnight, a break from the comfortable sleeping weather we have had for the last several nights. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Weak westerly flow on Friday making for summer type weather for central PA with hazy and warm conditions. Pops in forecast for more afternoon convection mainly for the elevated heat sources as cap will be tough to break. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Looking at more typical summer weather than we have seen so far this season. Temperatures will be close to normal for the period and dewpoints higher than what we have seen this season for the most part. The main change was to edge POPS a tad higher on Saturday and take out showers and storms for Sunday, as models move the cold front a little faster now. Left Monday and the first part of the fourth of July dry. For later Tuesday into Thursday, did adjust superblend POPS some to fit with others and keep as low as possible. EC has hinted on some runs that it may be mainly dry. Perhaps the highest chc of rain will be across the far west on Thursday for a brief time, hinted at by some of the guidance. Overall, the cold front will be weak, given the time of year and the front will not be very far to the south. Still some variation again today by day 10, GFS and EC show different solutions, do we see a flat ridge or another large scale trough. Still a long ways out. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A weakening batch of shower and thunderstorms will push eastward across the I-80 corridor during the pre-dawn hours, potentially affecting KUNV or KIPT. Based on 04Z radar trends and HRRR output, believe there`s about a 50 pct chance for a brief visibility reduction at KUNV/KIPT between 05Z-09Z. Elsewhere, a moist southwest flow ascending the high terrain of northwest Pa could result in tempo MVFR cigs at KBFD through Friday morning. Model soundings indicate there will be enough diurnal heating to support cigs rising to VFR at KBFD by afternoon. Despite predominately VFR flying Friday, scattered showers and tstorms will affect the entire region Friday afternoon, potentially resulting in a brief reduction in some locations. .OUTLOOK... Sat...AM low cigs poss KBFD. Patchy AM fog poss elsewhere. Brief PM tsra impacts possible. Sun...Early AM low cigs possible BFD/JST. Mon-Tue...No sig wx expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ross/Martin NEAR TERM...Ross/DeVoir SHORT TERM...Ross LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...Fitzgerald
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
940 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 ...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 939 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 WV imagery indicates a westerly flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a near stationary frontal boundary stretches from the Oklahoma Panhandle northeast across central Kansas. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Convective allowing models are fairly aggressive with respect to upscale thunderstorm growth across western into south central Kansas this evening. The old cold front has already begun to wash out with models shoeing more broad easterly surface winds heading into tonight. As earlier concerns of initial development across the far southeast have waned, models such as the HRRR have become more aggressive with the upscale growth into a qlcs wind event well into central Kansas before midnight. We`ve increased pops to account for these latest model runs, as well as adjusted overnight lows for early Friday morning downward. Large hail up to 2 inches may be the primary threat in the western counties while a wind threat and heavy rain threat may be more likely with time this evening into central Kansas counties. Friday the area will be under the influence of weak northeasterly surface flow, as a a midlevel shortwave move across the KS/NE line by the afternoon. This should produce scattered showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon given the average MUCAPES around 500 j/KG. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 The front and major instability/CAPE axis moves farther southeast into the southern Plains by Saturday. Any storm threats by Saturday might be in the extreme west it at all. However, the entire southern High Plains region maintains relatively high dew points, with richer moisture not being scoured out. The GFS already has a trough across the Rockies by Sunday with vorticity advection into Kansas by Sunday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Short term models earlier this afternoon have been in good agreement with bringing a cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms across western Kansas early tonight. Strong winds and heavy rainfall appear to be the main hazards. Timing so fair has also been in decent agreement between the last few runs so will follow the latest trend and introduce strong winds in excess of 45 knots and at least IFR visibilities and ceilings with these storms. Timing and track favors the Garden City terminal between 01z and 03z Friday and the Dodge City, Hays and possibly even Liberal terminals between 02z and 04z Friday. Once these storms pass the prevailing winds will become north northeast at 10 to 15 knots through the remainder of the night. Model soundings suggest the potential for some MVFR stratus being possible between late tonight, especially between 09z and 15z Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 62 83 60 87 / 50 20 10 0 GCK 63 82 58 88 / 50 10 10 10 EHA 62 82 59 86 / 30 10 20 10 LBL 64 84 60 88 / 30 10 10 10 HYS 63 81 59 88 / 40 20 10 0 P28 69 86 63 89 / 70 30 20 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJohnson SHORT TERM...Russell LONG TERM...Russell AVIATION...Burgert
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1149 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .AVIATION... The passage of a mid level short wave will advance across Se Mi during the early morning hours, providing showers and few embedded thunderstorms. The chances will be much greater across the metro Detroit terminals with coverage decreasing to the north toward Saginaw. Recent model solutions continue to indicate that early morning rain with some low level moisture advection will support some MVFR based strato cu, lifting during the course of the morning and afternoon. For DTW...Precip should exit to the east by 09Z. Subsidence in the wake of the short wave will inhibit convective development during the morning and early afternoon. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Moderate in ceilings below 5000 ft this morning and afternoon. * Moderate for thunderstorms tonight. Low Friday morning through early afternoon, then moderate late Friday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 900 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 UPDATE... A mid level short wave clearly evident on the recent water vapor channels over nrn Illinois will lift across Se Mi overnight. The approach of this wave is already leading to an increase in convection across SW Lower Mi. Regional satellite data and sfc observations indicate a low level boundary (remnant outflow from last nights convection), extending from nrn Ohio across north-central Indiana. Trends in the radar suggest this boundary will be the focus for more vigorous convection this evening, fed by instability across the srn Ohio Valley. Farther north, large scale ascent from the short wave feature will generate showers with some embedded thunderstorms. Fairly weak mid level lapse rates over southern Lower Mi per 00Z DTX sounding and SPC meso analysis should limit the strength of the convection across the forecast area. The forcing and recent CAMS support current forecast thinking with higher pops across the southern half of the forecast area. Given recent trends, an update will be issued simply to make an upward adjustment to pops along/south of an Ann Arbor to Detroit line. Timing of the rainfall looks to be mainly between 03Z and 09Z (11 PM and 5 AM). PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 DISCUSSION... Potentially active forecast over the next couple days as a longwave trough over the region has several features of interest, both at the surface and mid levels, track through it. Convective complexes upstream riding along the main instability and theta e gradient draped across southern MI and northern IL/IN/OH will complicate the matter by adding clouds making diurnal instability harder to predict and using up some of the existing instability. Overall chances for thunderstorms exist this evening through Saturday before drier weather returns. This Evening and Tonight: First chance at showers and thunderstorms will come during the overnight period as an upstream convective wave works E/NE along the aforementioned theta e gradient. Best chances will come after 03Z as the wave enters the area, although good moisture depth and several smaller scale outflow boundaries and differential heating boundaries may spark a few showers or storms before that. Hires models have been pretty consistent with the feature itself but do constantly adjust timing. Thus grids have been adjusted to account for timing issues, mainly speeding up the MCS. Looks like the backside of the complex will exit east of SE MI around 10-12Z. Models are not too impressive with 850mb low level jet development tonight, which should keep stronger storms more isolated. Strong winds and heavy rainfall will be the primary concerns. Current cloud cover, some owning to previous convective debris from last night, has kept temps and winds in check for the most part, though any small pocket of clearing typically results in a quick pop of stronger wind and a temperature spike of a degree or 2. Gusts will diminish some tonight but winds overall will remain elevated, generally above 10 knots. Friday: Much of Friday`s forecast is dependent upon how fast the area can recover from overnight convection and lingering cloud debris. With a general lack of upper level flow across the country, the current low over western Ontario will move very little over the next 24 hours, while the next wave rotating through the trough lifts up along the cold front draped over western lower MI. Timing of this wave and semblance of a warm front lifting north will be in the early afternoon, meaning the area will likely have about 6-8 hours of recovery and heating after the morning wave. RAP CAPE values increase to around 1500 J/kg, mostly elevated but soundings do show the cap trying to break up allowing convection to become surface based. Bulk shear values will average 35 knots as well. That said, there remains a Slight Risk of severe weather Friday accounting for this afternoon wave. PWATs consistently around 1.75 inches will also keep heavy rainfall a good possibility. Models seem to target locations between M59 and I69 at the moment for the highest QPF. Friday Night and Saturday: Trailing deformation axis will swing through overnight with the main longwave trough axis holding off til Saturday evening. This said, chances of showers and thunderstorms will linger through most of the overnight hours and through Saturday before drier air is brought back into the region. The Great Lakes will remain under a weak upper-level trough Sunday into early Monday which will bring the slight chance to see a pop-up shower or thunderstorm during this time. Additional rain chances will be possible throughout Tuesday as a weak warm front pushes across Southern Michigan, however, with ridging building in aloft from the west and surface high pressure in place across Michigan by Tuesday morning, conditions will not be favorable for precipitation. PoP values will remain sub-30 throughout the early half of next week, with the exception of late Sunday into early Monday, as a weak cold front brings slightly better chances to see rain. Otherwise, major divergence is seen across the long-range models regarding precipitation chances for the late extended period. The GFS run picks up on a low pressure system that moves from Iowa into the Ohio Valley Thursday into Friday, bringing rain chances to the region. The ECMWF run is trying to pick up on this feature, but the low pressure is not well-developed and the brunt of precipitation stays south of Michigan throughout Thursday. Additional convergence between model runs will be needed to increase confidence regarding precipitation timing and extent. Otherwise, seasonal temperatures in the lower 80s for a daytime high are expected through next week, as surface high pressure acts to keep winds and winds gust calm to light. MARINE... Low pressure over central Lake Superior will move into northern Ontario tonight and maintain moderate southerly wind over marine areas. Small craft advisories remain in effect and are expected to expire on schedule this evening. Marine wind conditions will then remain favorable through the holiday weekend in a diffuse surface pressure pattern while showers and thunderstorms remain active. Weak high pressure arriving by Sunday will provide the best chance for a period of dry weather into Sunday night. HYDROLOGY... The next round of thunderstorms is expected to continue organizing over IA/MO/IL into northern IN during the late afternoon and then move toward SE Michigan during late evening through the overnight hours. Higher concentration of activity and potential for heavier rainfall will be generally south of the I-69 corridor, with the greatest potential closer to the Ohio border. Average rainfall amounts up to a half inch are anticipated, but localized higher totals in excess of an inch are possible where clusters of storms are able to develop through mid Friday morning. After a break during late morning and early afternoon, the active period for showers and thunderstorms will continue into Friday night. The potential for flooding will be dependent on the cumulative rainfall totals at any one location during this active period which will have wide variability across southeast Michigan. It does appear like coverage will be greater along and south of the I-69 corridor Friday into Friday night as well and this is where a corresponding rise of area rivers and streams, as well as minor flooding, will be possible. Central Lower Michigan will remain most susceptible as the area continues to recover from recent flooding but coverage is expected to be lower there. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. Lake Huron...NONE. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....SC UPDATE.......SC DISCUSSION...DRK/AM MARINE.......BT HYDROLOGY....BT You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
934 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 931 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity now across the southeast half of the fa with minimal convection farther north and west. There is another band of convection over western and central ND however without a low level jet not sure how this will hold together. Oriented chance/slght chc pops accordingly. No other changes needed. UPDATE Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Scattered thunderstorms continue to be dispersed across all but the southeast quarter of the forecast area. With lack of shear and only 10-15kt steering some of the heavier storms may put out 1-2 inch rainfall with locally higher amounts. With spotty nature of storms did trim back on pops to chc/sct ranges. No other changes. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Main challenge for short term forecast will be general TSRA this aftn...which is just starting west of the valley. In general short term models have been poor indicating where TS would POP this aftn until the first storms started to form, when the HRRR began getting a better handle on it. SPC analysis shows MUCAPE values in the 1000 to 1200 J/KG range over the valley...where storms across Nelson county are initiating around 800 J/KG region. There is only about 25 kts bulk shear over the region and this will not increase. Expectation will be for pulsey storms with limited svr potential, but slow movers could result in heavy rain vcnty of the strongest storms. Upper/mid level forcing depicted by H500-H700 Q-vector convergence shows axis over the valley at 00Z...and pretty much clear of the CWA by 06Z. Expect any remaining convection at midnight to quickly deteriorate aft midnight, ending activity by 09Z. For tomorrow, a repeat of today with Q-vector convergence moving across mainly the northern tier of zones mid day, and increasing across NW Minnesota in the late aftn. Expect any morning convection to be mainly across the north and north east and may spread south along our eastern zones in the aftn hours. This is well depicted by most models QPF estimates with the highest rainfall amounts along the intl border and cooler temps in eastern zones as shower/TS activity increases by mid-aftn. Once again little shear to work with tomorrow aftn and expect main threat to be slow moving storms capable of producing small hail and heavier rain shower due to storm motion. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 High pressure will be poised to head south and east out of southern Saskatchewan early in the weekend. This high will head down toward the international border while another surface high takes up re silence over the Central Plains. A weak boundary may set up between these two, at this point though not much in the way of any pcpn is expected. The most likely area for anything would be far NW MN. On Sun the Canadian high will become the more prominent feature, treating the forecast area to sun, light winds and temps that will still be a few degrees below early July averages. Mon-Thu...the early to midweek period will be characterized by a building ridge to the lee of the Rockies moving over the Northern Plains. Look for a reasonably dry period during this time with an increase in temperatures. Most ensemble guidance indicates a strong potential for warmer temperatures (above normal values). The ECMWF is stronger than the GFS with this ridging, and thus keep all thunder activity north of the region in true ridge rider fashion. There is still lots of uncertainty with the strength of this ridging, which will determine thunderstorm chances (and severe potential). && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Spotty slow moving storms at this time not impacting any TAF sites so maintained vcts/vcsh through the evening and will monitor. Cigs remain VFR however guidance does bring in some mvfr cigs toward morning. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Voelker SHORT TERM...Speicher LONG TERM...WJB AVIATION...Voelker
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
816 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 814 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017 As expected, winds have died down considerably as the atmosphere begins to decouple. Since Red Flag conditions are not being met in most areas, it was allowed to expire. Current grids looking good so no changes to going forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 334 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Cool front boundary appears as though it has stalled across the central corridor with shower activity across the northern mountains and sprinkles over the northern valleys this afternoon. With a split 80kt jet overhead to the north and south of this boundary, this should continue to allow for mixing during peak afternoon heating for winds and relative humidity meeting critical fire weather thresholds once again. A Red Flag Warning remains in place through this evening. See Fire Weather discussion below for more details. Not expecting much precipitation out of these showers as the atmosphere remains so dry, but gusty outflow winds and lightning are the primary concerns. The back edge of this upper level trough responsible for the Red Flag conditions the last few days will finally exit to the east and push the cool front across the rest of the forecast area this evening into the overnight. Some showers may linger over the divide by Friday morning as an area of channelized vorticity on the back edge of the trough pushes through. High pressure will rebuild over the Great Basin and slide over the region by Friday afternoon with much lighter gradient winds as we lose the influence of the upper level jet. This will result in a cooler morning and afternoon on Friday with lighter winds and a reprieve from the widespread critical fire weather conditions. There may be some occasional breezes during the afternoon with localized critical fire weather conditions, but winds should largely stay below critical thresholds with mostly sunny skies. Regarding the smoke from local and distant wildfires, the latest HRRR shows the smoke from the Brian Head wildfire in SW Utah continuing to transport smoke across SE Utah into SW Colorado this evening and overnight into Friday morning. Introduced areas of smoke back into the forecast again for these areas through Friday morning. Smoke from the Lightner Creek wildfire northwest of Durango is also seen in the HRRR model and is expected to shift southward as the cool front moves southward overnight tonight. Smoke is expected to settle into the Animas and San Juan River Basins affecting the southern valleys of Durango and Pagosa Springs through Friday morning and possibly the afternoon as the gradient lessens and winds decouple causing the smoke to become trapped in valley inversions. Highlighted this area for greater smoke coverage in the forecast through Friday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 334 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017 A ridge of high pressure will remain overhead Saturday but try to break down as an upper level trough moves into the Great Basin. Southwest flow is expected to increase by Sunday afternoon ahead of this trough and track over the region Sunday evening into Monday morning. The atmosphere remains dry with Precipitable Water (PW) values mostly less than 0.3 inches, but some pockets of 0.5 inches show up which is enough to generate some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity. Expect mostly virga and gusty outflow winds with these showers. Regarding the gradient winds, H7 and H5 winds only increase to 20 kts with a weak upper level jet so not expecting widespread critical fire weather conditions at this time. High pressure builds in firmly by Tuesday and remains in place through Thursday with some moisture trying to sneak in under the ridge by the latter half of the week. This will lead to mainly hot and dry conditions with isolated thunderstorms possible over the higher terrain each afternoon, but more likely towards the end of the week as the profile saturates a bit more. H7 temps show a good warming trend towards 20 degrees C by Wednesday and Thursday, which translates to triple digit heat returning once again for the Grand Valley and valleys of southeast Utah. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 518 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Gusty winds will continue for the next few hours before dying down as the atmosphere decouples. Some convection that fired this afternoon will also die down at this time. No concerns for any TAF sites. Partly cloudy skies are expected tomorrow with a few gusty winds in the afternoon though they should be less widespread and also considerably weaker. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ UPDATE...TGR SHORT TERM...MDA LONG TERM...MDA AVIATION...TGR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
600 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017 An upper level disturbance currently moving southeast over the Colorado front range is forecast to initiate showers and thunderstorms generally along and south of the interstate and west of highway 27 around 00z. Upper level jet divergence signature suggests a cluster of thunderstorms which is also suggested by hrrr model qpf. Severe weather is likely. This cluster of storms is expected to move east and southeast across the area during the evening and generally out of the area by midnight. Should have a lull in activity during the early morning hours of Friday before another disturbance and jet support moves in from the northwest supporting another chance of showers/thunderstorms by sunrise. Mid level moisture rather lacking during the afternoon so only slight chance pops for now. Low temperatures in the low 50s west to low 60s east. High temperatures Friday in the low to mid 70s in far eastern Colorado, mid 70s to low 80s elsewhere. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 137 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Flow aloft becomes northwesterly Friday night as a ridge builds over the southwestern CONUS. High pressure moves east onto the region, resulting in increased temperatures on Saturday as well as dry weather. Models hint at a quick shot at precipitation overnight on Saturday for the southern portion of the forecast area. The next shortwave set to impact the area arrives on Sunday, generating shower and thunderstorm chances in the afternoon and evening. The shortwave strengthens a lee trough, with southerly winds drawing moisture north. The increasing moisture along with decent shear and instability should be enough for a few severe thunderstorms. Will continue to monitor. Precipitation exits the region overnight. A somewhat active pattern continues into next week with the upper ridge expanding northeast and some moisture filtering northward underneath. A similar setup to Sunday will develop on Monday. However, in addition to this, a disturbance traverses the Rockies and advances across the area. This generates shower and thunderstorm chances again in the afternoon and evening hours. Dry conditions are anticipated on Tuesday as the system moves east. Wednesday and Thursday: The upper ridge over the southwestern portion of the country amplifies, expanding north and east, and flow aloft remains from the north northwest during this period on the eastern side of the high pressure. Guidance differs in the strength and position of the ridge. Kept slight to low chance PoPs each afternoon and evening as disturbances work their way through the flow. High temperatures during the period mainly range within the mid 80s to mid 90s across the region. Low temperatures stay in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 530 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017 TSRA with MVFR to VFR will start out the GLD TAF with a quick return to VFR conditions once the discrete cell moves east of the site after 01Z. MCK will remain VFR through the TAF period with a few thunderstorms moving through the vicinity between 02-06Z. Showers may also move through the area of the MCK site between 14-20Z during the day on Friday. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BULLER LONG TERM...JBH AVIATION...LOCKHART
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1046 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase Friday through Saturday as an upper level disturbance moves across the area. A surface cold front will then push through the area Saturday night / Sunday morning with drier weather expected Sunday as high pressure builds in. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A potent shortwave is currently pushing east this evening into Illinois with widespread shower and thunderstorm development occurring out in front. The track of the shortwave will be towards the northeast with it generally starting to shear out as it approaches the area. Not surprisingly high res models then try to weaken the convection as it approaches the area. This appears likely due to the weakening upper level disturbance and waning instability. Looking at RAP forecast ML CAPE though does show some elevated instability remaining. Due to this have bumped up PoPs across the north to likely to account for this. High res models have also been hinting at spotty development out ahead of the shortwave which appears to be in response top weak low level convergence (as hinted at by RAP 850/ 700 mb winds). Friday afternoon showers and thunderstorms will begin to redevelop as another shortwave ejects out of the Rocky Mountains and heads east around the base of a strengthening shortwave trough. Significant disagreement exists here between the NAM and GFS. The latest GFS is much weaker with the strength of the upper level jet and has lower instability values. The NAM is much stronger with the shortwave in amplitude and upper level jet streak strength. Overall think the NAM is overdone here. Still though some storms could be strong to severe with SFC to 6 km shear around 30 kts. Due to the above SPC has us in a Day 2 slight risk. Prev Discussion-> Extensive cu field has developed across the forecast area. A few isolated showers have developed along and southeast of Interstate 71. Some additional shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible through the near term as a weak upper level disturbance approaches the area. The severe threat appears minimal, however cannot rule out an isolated damaging wind gust tonight across the north. Went close to guidance for low temperatures overnight. Wind gusts will continue through the early evening hours before beginning to dissipate for the overnight hours. Although, wind gusts will subside expect winds to stay up some overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... An upper level disturbance will move through the region on Friday allowing for additional shower and thunderstorm chances. There is a chance that some of the storms could produce damaging wind gusts and therefore there is a slight risk and marginal risk out across the region. Went close to guidance for temperatures through the short term period. Winds will pick up for the daytime hours on Friday, however do not expect wind gusts to be quite as high as today. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front will push southeast across our area Saturday into Saturday night. Ahead of this, a better chance for pcpn will exist across southeast portions of our fa as a short wave lifts northeast across the upper Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a lingering chance of thunderstorms will exist elsewhere across the area Saturday into Saturday evening until the front moves through. Highs on Saturday will be in the lower 80s. High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the area for Sunday with highs again mostly in the lower 80s. We will then transition to more of a zonal flow pattern aloft as a weak boundary pushes down from the north and possibly lays out across our area through mid week. This will allow for several disturbances aloft to work east across the region through the remainder of the period. With a boundary also in place, this will lead to chances of showers and thunderstorms at times through the later periods of the longer term forecast. Highs will mostly be in the mid 80s through Thursday. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Gusty southwest winds from this afternoon have slowly started to decrease as the sun has started to set. A weak differential heating boundary has formed across our northern zones this afternoon which has allowed showers and thunderstorms to form. Friday morning an upper level disturbance will move overhead with another batch of showers and thunderstorms approaching from the west. At the same time a band of low level convergence will move across the region. The high res models show some showers and thunderstorms developing along the nose of the jet and pushing northeast. For now have added a VCSH to account for this, but the placement remains semi- nebulous at this point. The most likely genesis region appears to be along interstate 71 near KILN. Friday afternoon showers and thunderstorms will then likely pop back up. Later Friday afternoon an upper level disturbance will move across the area helping to better focus development. Timing on the global models mostly shows the better development towards later Friday evening. As of now have left vicinity in the TAFs but this will likely need to be upgraded in future issuances. Friday morning into afternoon some gusty winds will be possible but GFS and NAM forecast soundings show gusts in the 15 to 20kt range. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times from Friday into Saturday night and again Monday through Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/Novak NEAR TERM...Haines/Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Haines
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
913 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 912 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 A line of thunderstorms, a few of them strong to briefly severe is aligned just east of the I-57 corridor through central IL and moving slowly eastward. With sunset, instability is slowly waning as the line organizes, with LAPS and RAP analyses showing around 1000 J/KG. SPC has reduced the severe thunderstorm outlook to marginal risk from the slight risk of earlier today. This feature should pass into Indiana around 11 p.m. to midnight. The next feature will be a developing thunderstorm complex over northern Missouri that 01Z HRRR model indicates should move ESE and affect areas possibly as far north as Jacksonville, Springfield, to Charleston/Mattoon from around Midnight to early morning. Will be sending updates to PoPs to try to better specify these features in short term forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 An MCV over central MO had convection from central MO and developing recently into central IL near I-72. Also have a band of showers spreading east over the IL river valley. CAPES have increased to 1200-2200k J/KG from I-72 south with 2-3k J/KG over southern IL near I-64 and pockets over western/sw IN. Have a lingering cap over central IL though this has been weakening se of the IL river where more filtered sunshine and heating into the mid to upper 80s. Dewpoints were higher today, in the mid 60s over IL river valley and near 70F in southeast IL from Taylorville to Danville se. 1st wave of scattered convection to spread east over central IL this afternoon and depart by sunset, with a 2nd wave spreading east from northern MO into central IL later this evening and overnight. HRRR model has been quicker and further south with its convection and 2nd wave gets into southeast IL overnight. Good chance of showers and thunderstorms redeveloping over CWA during Friday in unstable airmass. SPC has slight risk of severe storms through tonight north of I-70 and marginal risk of severe storms on Friday across CWA. Think areas se of I-55 will have strongest storms on Friday afternoon thru sunset. Lows overnight in the lower 70s, with some upper 60s nw of the IL river. Highs Friday in the mid 80s, except lower 80s nw of the IL river. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Highest convection chances shift into southeast IL during Friday night as frontal boundary pushes through area. Lows Fri night range from lower 60s nw of IL river to near 70F by Lawrenceville. The front will be near the Ohio river valley and lingered isolated convection se IL Sat morning. Highs Sat in the lower 80s over central IL and mid 80s in southeast IL. Getting less humid during the day Saturday with wnw flow as dewpoints slip into the upper 50s/lower 60s Sat afternoon in central IL and mid 60s in southeast IL. Dry weather expected from Sat afternoon through most of Sunday as weak high pressure settles in. Lows Sat night in the lower 60s with some upper 50s north of Peoria. Seasonable highs Sunday in the mid 80s with dewpoints in the lower 60s. Isolated convection could affect areas nw of the IL river late Sunday afternoon, then have chance of showers and thunderstorms along and north of I-72 Sunday night. This due to a disturbance dropping into the Great Lakes region where a weak upper level trof is located then. More humid/tropical airmass returns Mon-Thu along with more unsettled weather pattern and daily chances of showers/thunderstorms. Best chances on Monday still appear north of I-70 with just isolated convection se of I-70 Monday afternoon. Better chances of convection with possible MCS arrive across area Monday night, and more development of convection Tue/Tue night with approaching upper level trof. This feature moves east over IA/MO Tue night and Wed and into IL Wed night and Thu and will likely bring more chances of showers and thunderstorms. Seasonable highs in the mid to upper 80s Monday, low to mid 80s Tue and mid 80s Wed/Thu. Rather humid as well with dewpoints rising into the upper 60s/lower 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 708 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Several disturbances may affect central IL TAF sites over the upcoming 24 hours producing thunderstorm activity. In the short term, a departing mesoscale convective vortex will continue to produce a few thunderstorms through evening today, mainly for eastern TAF sites KBMI-KCMI-KDEC where mention of thunder included in 00Z TAFs. After approximately 06Z...convection over northern Missouri will likely push eastward and may affect southern TAF sites KSPI-KDEC. Finally, a shortwave over NB/IA this evening is expected to develop significant thunderstorm activity pushing eastward overnight. This system and an associated frontal boundary pushing into the region Friday will bring good chances for rain showers and thunderstorms, although timing of the feature remains highly uncertain still. Winds generally S-SW under 10 kts overnight, increasing to 10-15 kts after 12Z, although some variability in direction associated with shower and thunderstorm activity. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...37 SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...37
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
731 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 723 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight especially over northwest Indiana and southwest Michigan where some locally heavy rainfall could occur. Highs this afternoon will range in the low to mid 80s with increasing humidity. Drier and pleasant weather is expected this weekend. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 210 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Water vapor imagery and latest RAP analysis depicting weak disturbance/MCV emanating from previous nocturnal MCS is now moving into northern MO with decent 50-55kt mid level flow. CAMs seem to be keying in on this feature for potential convection over our area late this afternoon thru tonight as it brings convective complex along the W/SW mean cloud bearing wind. KIWX and surrounding radars showing initial development underway this afternoon in advance of this feature. Forecast soundings indicating decent amount of instability to work with over our area tonight as increasing low level moisture will have CAPEs around 1500J/kg. Hodograph becomes linear with time as wind profile becomes more unidirectional resulting in primary severe threat being damaging winds. Strength of flow and forcing will be supportive for strong storms and possible severe with 40-45kt LLJ and effective shear values around 45kts. Frontal wave located over the central plains this afternoon will lift E/NE through the period and eventually bring cold front into the area by Friday afternoon. This will bring potential for another round of storms...especially over the eastern CWA as timing will favor diurnal destabilization of airmass ahead of the front with CAPEs around 2000J/kg. Similar severe threat as wind profile remains unidirectional. && .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 210 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Lingering chances for precip primarily in the eastern CWA Friday night into Saturday morning as cold front slowly pushes through. Remainder of the weekend looking rather pleasant as weak surface ridging builds into the region providing dry weather and near normal temps. Next week will have a series of weak short waves moving through the northern stream flow across southern Canada while upper level ridging builds over the four corners and along the gulf coast leaving a stalled surface boundary and baroclinic zone in between. This boundary will be the main player for our weather and much uncertainty still remains as to its location and impact. Medium range models currently show boundary a little further south as they carve out a trough along the eastern flank of upper ridge over the mid MS valley pushing surface boundary down into the OH/TN valley. This would trend our area toward a drier forecast and lower precip chances. As expected...plenty of spread amongst the ensemble members so believe it prudent to both keep chance pops going days Mon-Wed but also not go with anything in likely category until better consensus is realized. ECMWF then has upper ridge shifting east toward our area bringing dry and warmer weather by day 7 while GFS still has boundary in the vicinity resulting in continued precip chances. Temperatures through the period will be near seasonal norms with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued at 723 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Sctd convection south of KFWA and sw of KSBN have prompted either warnings or sig wx advisories. expect additional activity to develop and move into northern IN later tonight after 03Z. Went mainly with VCTS or tempo TSRA for a couple of hours during the night. Expect MVFR cigs for a portion of Friday morning before trending toward VFR during the aftn. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frazier SHORT TERM...JAL LONG TERM...JAL AVIATION...Frazier Visit us at Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
711 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 710 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Updated forecast ot drop severe thunderstorm watch. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 A SFC frontal boundary draped across Ncntl Neb near Oneill north to around Winner SD is expected to be the focus for severe storm development late this afternoon through early evening. Storm coverage is expected to be isolated to scattered and quite severe given the high CAPE and 50 kt 500mb winds aloft. The 15z-18z HRRR radar product depicted a bow echo producing model generated winds gusts as high as 95 mph. The forecast storm was east of Holt County in the Missouri river valley. Some models like the NAM and HRRR EXP were a bit farther west with storm initiation. The location of the front around 21z this afternoon will likely dictate the location of storm development. There is a chance for storm development off the nrn portions of the Front range and Laramie range this afternoon which could drift into Swrn Neb this evening. Not sure if it will make it into Swrn Neb since this area will be post-frontal. Otherwise the forecast is dry tonight. The model consensus indicates a weakly organized area of showers and thunderstorms, currently affecting the Tetons and Big Horn range, will move into Garden County Friday morning and affect the Cntl Sandhills throughout the day. Blended guidance plus bias correction suggested highs in the 70s Friday with mostly cloudy skies. H700mb temperatures fall into the low single digits celsius. Lows tonight fall into the 50s to lower 60s using the same guidance blend. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 The ECM is about 6 hours slower with the convective system forecast to develop off the Black Hills Sunday afternoon. The model waits until 06z to carry it into Nrn Neb. The GFS and GEM are faster igniting storms off the Black Hills around 18z. The GFS model also suggests storm activity forming on the Cheyenne Divide which moves through Swrn Neb. The POP forecast is for scattered storm coverage which is appropriate for a high CAPE capped atmosphere with H700mb temperatures in the 10-12C range. Note GFS and ECM indicate HP storm type QPF totals with bulls-eyes of 1-inch+ amounts. There is a chance that the models are too fast developing storms Sunday and the better rain chance could be Monday. The forecast carries a chance POP Monday afternoon for storm development. No other rain chances are in place; just isolated thunderstorms here and there. The upper level ridge of high pressure across Old Mexico will build north toward the Cntl Plains Sunday and present hot weather Tuesday through Thursday. There is a chance rain cooled air could enter Nebraska and take the edge off temperatures. This would be the result of outflow from storms across the Nrn Plains. The temperature forecast is for upper 80s to mid 90s Sunday and beyond. This could be conservative given the 12-14C 700mb temperatures that are forecast by the models. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 639 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Scattered thunderstorms will move out of the Nebraska Panhandle into western Nebraska this evening with mainly high based thunderstoms. North to northwest winds will become light over the area tonight. and then increase Friday morning. Scattered rainshowers are possible over western Nebraska on Friday as an upper level systme moves to the southeast across the area. Visual flight rules expected. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Power SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...Power
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
959 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .UPDATE... The isolated severe weather/tornado risk and flash flood risk appeared to be winding down late this evening after an active late afternoon and early evening on the Mississippi Gulf coast. A well defined mesoscale cyclonic vortex was observed in radar imagery earlier moving east across the upper Florida parishes and the near the southwest Mississippi state line, but should no longer have a significant factor in the forecast. The continue flux of deep tropical moisture and unseasonably strong low level inflow was responsible for the flood producing rainfall and rotating mini- supercells, however the inflow has been gradually weakening during the late afternoon and evening, and upper level support is also waning. Have cancelled the Flash Flood Watch and updated the forecast to lower rain chances overnight into the early morning hours on Friday. 22/TD && .AVIATION... Any lingering SHRA/TSRA in the vicinity of KGPT should be dissipating or moving away from the terminal, however there is still a slight chance of one or two terminals seeing a brief SHRA/TSRA overnight. The TAFs will likely not be indicating any additional TSRA until Friday afternoon when a PROB30 group has been included. Also, am expecting MVFR conditions (mainly due to low CIGS) to develop overnight with a chance of IFR at one or two terminals. Mostly VFR is expected to return by Friday afternoon. 22/TD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017/ SYNOPSIS... Weak upper low currently over the area, enhancing development of showers and thunderstorms. A few of these storms have developed rotation, so worthy of keeping an eye on. In addition, precipitable water values continue to run 2.25 inches or higher, so heavy rain remains a threat late this afternoon and this evening. Temperatures have had a difficult time getting past the convective temperature in the lower 80s for very long. SHORT TERM... Upper low will only slowly shear out over the next 36 to 48 hours and will have to continue mention of POPs in the 40-60 percent range tonight and Friday. Organized heavy rain threat should diminish after the current round of convection diminishes, per the latest HRRR runs, and currently plan on letting FFA run until expiration at 03Z. Evening shift can extend part or all of the watch if radar trends necessitate it. Precipitable water values are forecast to drop from the current 2.25 inches to about 1.7 inches for Saturday and Sunday, justifying lower rain chances. Don`t think we will be completely dry all weekend, but any activity should remain isolated in most areas. With convective temperatures warming into the upper 80s tomorrow, this should allow for somewhat warmer temperatures, but don`t see many, if any, areas reaching 90 tomorrow. However, Saturday and Sunday are a different matter. Expect lower 90s to be widespread with the possible exception of immediate coastal areas where sea breezes may hold temperatures in the upper 80s. Heat index readings for Saturday and Sunday are likely to be around 100 degrees in many areas. We haven`t had too many oppressive heat episodes so far this season, so be a little careful out there. 35 LONG TERM... Weak upper ridging takes hold along the central Gulf Coast for much of next week, but doesn`t look strong enough to totally shut off convection. Expect that we will see more of a climatologically consistent pattern, with isolated to scattered afternoon convection. Highs will reach the lower 90s in most areas. 35 AVIATION... Main issue over the next 6 hours will be convection, which is being accounted for with TEMPO groups in all terminals showing brief MVFR to IFR conditions. Areal coverage of convection should diminish after sunset. Beyond 06Z...expect lower clouds to redevelop, with most terminals going to MVFR conditions. Exception likely to be MCB, where high end IFR ceilings are possible. Anticipate redevelopment of scattered convection by late morning, which will likely be addressed in 00Z TAF forecast package. 35/CAB MARINE... With high pressure moving into the area, wind and wave conditions should remain below headline criteria outside of thunderstorms through the forecast package. 35 DECISION SUPPORT... DSS code: Yellow. Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: Monitoring rainfall today across the area Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend Green = No weather impacts that require action. Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high visibility event. Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory issuances; radar support. Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes. Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 72 88 74 92 / 40 50 10 20 BTR 74 89 75 92 / 20 50 10 20 ASD 76 89 77 91 / 30 50 10 20 MSY 77 89 77 91 / 20 40 10 20 GPT 77 87 78 89 / 70 50 10 20 PQL 76 87 76 89 / 70 50 10 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
553 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Friday Afternoon) Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Convection continues to develop across west central and central MO and head for the St Louis metro area this afternoon. Some of this convection was ahead of an MCV and along an outflow boundary from morning convection. Development should continue into the early evening hours with daytime heating and instability. Lot of model differences with location and timing of another possible nocturnal MCS for late tonight and Friday morning. Will follow the NAM and experimental HRRR model solutions which bring an MCS southeastward into northeast and central portions of MO around midnight, then through the rest of the forecast area late tonight and Friday morning. Warm and humid conditions can be expected tonight, then slightly cooler high temperatures are forecast on Friday across central and southeast MO and southwest IL due to morning cloud cover and convection. Could not rule out redevelopment of convection Friday afternoon with the approach of an upper level trough and as the atmosphere tries to destabilize again, although the effective boundary may be southeast of much of the forecast area by this time. GKS .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Next Thursday) Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Cold front will slowly work through the area and exit the region by Saturday afternoon then move into southern Missouri bootheel by Sunday morning. The front will then lift north northward late Sunday and pushes to just north of the I-70 corridor early Monday afternoon. Saturday will likely be dry for most areas with the exception of area closer to the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible along and south of the warm front as it moves north on Sunday. The front will be located roughly just south of the Missouri and Iowa line by Tuesday morning then become qausi stationary. A shortwave is forecast to push through the area Monday night into Tuesday morning with a chance for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms possible in central Missouri. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger through the 4th of July holiday into early Wednesday. High pressure will slide into the region by Wednesday afternoon and provide dry weather for the rest of the period. Temperatures are expected to be at or just below climatological ranges for the duration of the extended forecast period. Kelly && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 530 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Current convection between COU and UIN may eventually spread into UIN later this evening, with new convective development across southeast KS into west central MO likely moving into COU late tonight, and eventually may move into the St Louis metro area by early morning. Still a lot of uncertainty as to the timing and extent of nocturnal convection. MOS guidance fairly consistent that we will have prevailing MVFR cig heights Friday morning, otherwise VFR conditions outside of showers/storms. Mainly south- southwesterly surface winds through the period, although at times chaotic near thunderstorms and outflow boundaries. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Convective development across southeast KS into west central MO may move into the St Louis metro area late tonight and early Friday morning. Still a lot of uncertainty as to the timing and extent of nocturnal convection. MOS guidance fairly consistent that we will have prevailing MVFR cig heights Friday morning, otherwise VFR conditions outside of showers/storms. Mainly south-southwesterly surface winds through the period, although at times chaotic near thunderstorms and outflow boundaries. GKS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 75 87 70 86 / 40 50 40 10 Quincy 68 83 64 83 / 60 50 10 5 Columbia 71 83 65 84 / 50 40 30 5 Jefferson City 72 85 66 85 / 40 30 30 10 Salem 73 84 68 85 / 30 50 50 20 Farmington 70 82 67 84 / 20 50 60 20 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
630 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .DISCUSSION... /issued 310 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017/ Skies are partly cloudy across the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures mainly in the 80s. Scattered showers continue to move north across mainly the southern half of the forecast area but seems to die off as it reaches portions of west Tennessee and east Arkansas. More showers and some thunderstorms are possible tonight as moisture continues to stream north from the Gulf of Mexico with the best chance of rain over North Mississippi. Temperatures will remain seasonably warm with lows Friday morning in the lower 70s. An upper level disturbance will move across the region on Friday which will help trigger some additional showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain near normal levels with highs in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. By Friday night, a cold front will be moving into southern Missouri. This will help produce a better chance of thunderstorms especially over the northern half of the forecast area. By Saturday, the cold front will be inching closer to the region so there will be a better chance of thunderstorms over southern sections of the forecast area. There is a marginal risk of severe weather on Saturday with damaging winds being the main threat. With more clouds and rain in the area, temperatures will be a little cooler with highs in the mid to upper 80s. The cold front will move into the northern part of the forecast area by Sunday morning so there will still be some chance of showers and thunderstorms for both Saturday night and Sunday. The front will be weakening as it moves into the region so the chance of rain will be less than during the day on Saturday. By Sunday night, what is left of the cold front will lift back north as a warm front with the best chance of thunderstorms over northern sections of the forecast area. The remainder of the forecast period will see mostly diurnally driven convection with a chance of thunderstorms continuing from Monday through next Thursday. The best chance of rain each day will be mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. Temperatures will remain near or slightly below normal from Monday through next Thursday. ARS && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF Set Scattered showers will dissipate by 01Z. Stratus will then invade the Mid-South quickly this evening. KTUP will go IFR by 4Z followed by KMKL at 6Z. Expect the stratus to stay out of KMEM until 07Z. KJBR will then see the stratus later around 10-12Z. The stratus will gradually lift during the morning hours. Expect all TAF sites to be back to VFR conditions by 19Z. Chances for convection will occur tomorrow but timing is all over the place depending on what short term model you look at. Could be a line of TSRAS moving in from the west during the late morning hours based on the HRRR while the NSSL WRF-ARW shows one moving in from the northwest during the late afternoon hours. Regardless, expect isolated to scattered convection outside of this potential TSRA line to develop around the CWA. Thus, have mention of VCSH/VCTS at all TAF sites for now. S winds of 5-10 KTs will occur overnight. Direction will shift to the SSW or SW during the day with speeds maintaining around 10 KTS. KRM && && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
737 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 357 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2017 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough into the the n cntrl CONUS with several embedded shortwaves. One shrtwv and associated sfc low was moving east from ern Lake Superior. Scattered light showers associated with this feature were departing from the ern cwa. The next signficant upstream shrtwv was located over nw SD. Otherwise, only a few -shra were noted upstream in cyclonic nw flow through ne MN and nw WI. Tonight, expect mainly isold -shra into the wrn cwa, per upstream trends and short range models. With abundant wrap-around low level moisture over the area, areas of fog are likely especially where upslope wnw flow prevails. CAA will help drop temps into the 50s. Friday, the greatest impact from the SD upstream will reamin well to the south through WI, closest to the sfc warm front and area of higher instability where tsra will develop. Models suggest that a weaker sheared shrtwv will move through Upper Michigan. With lingering low level troughing into the area, developing lake breeze boundaris along with daytime heating pushing SBCAPEs to around 500 J/Kg, sct shra and a few tsra should again develop. Highs should remain in the low to mid 60s north but climb into the lower 70s south. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 301 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2017 A break is expected in the recent cool and wet pattern that has affected Upper Michigan the last few weeks. Have to get through the weekend through as another upper level trough will bring cooler and unsettled weather to the region. As of right now the 4th of July looks dry with daytime temps near normal in the 70s. Upper level troughing begins to affect the Upper Great Lakes later Fri into Fri night. Upper level forcing should help strengthen sfc boundary that will remain over the area in wake of the low moving through currently. Overall into Sat appears stronger forcing and more extensive moisture remains more north into the upper trough over northern Ontario but daytime heating during the aftn and sfc based instability could help shower chances increase aftn into evening hours on Sat, especially inland west half. Perhaps enough instability over south central for isolated thunderstorms too with mid 70s temps and Td around 60 leading to sfc based CAPE 750-1000 j/kg. Though most areas will see temps into the 70s, general northerly winds btwn main area of low pressure over northern Ontario/Quebec and high pressure over central Plains, should keep temps along Lk Superior in the 60s. Greatest chances of rain this weekend likely will be Sun as stronger shortwave trough in overall mean troughing works through. Unlike Sat rain would not follow typical diurnal trends, as it could arrive as early as overnight Sat night but then would pretty much end mid to late Sun aftn west into Sun evening east as stronger subsidence pushes in behind shortwave. Colder temps at h5 with the trough will boost mid-level lapse rates over 6.5c/km on Sun so even though there may be more cloud cover could see at least isold thunderstorms. Best chances again south central. Low wetbulb zero levels 6-9kft both Sat and Sun aftn would result in stronger storms being able to produce small hail. Shear over 30 kts is supportive for possible severe storms on Sun but as of right now the instability does not look too impressive (sfc based CAPE less than 500 j/kg) with more abundant cloud cover. Upper trough moves to eastern Canada by early next week opening the door for more zonal W-NW flow to dominate. High pressure will be the main weather factor so dry weather should be the rule. Will be interesting to see how daytime dwpnts to the very wet conditions recently. Suppose if dwpnts stay up higher with overall warming trend (temps inland making it into the 80s potentially) there could be isold shra/tsra try to develop especially on the lake breeze convergence zones. Coverage would be very isolated though since larger scale pattern is not favorable for rain. Differences in extent of ridging aloft show up in the GFS, ECMWF and GEM late next week. Essentially the 00z ECMWF would hold larger scale ridging central Plains into the Upper Great Lakes. Latest GFS and GEM, and now the 12z ECMWF as well, break down the ridge and more or less have increasing chances of rain late next week. Tend to favor the that idea as it matches the overall mean pattern seen for quite some time now (troughing east and ridging west) and since it is also supported by NAEFS and ECMWF ensembles. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 737 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2017 With abundant low level moisture lingering over the area behind a departing low pres, expect LIFR conditions to prevail into the morning hrs at KIWD/KCMX due to upslope w to nw flow. Some influx of drier air on Fri will allow conditions at KIWD to improve to MVFR in the aftn with VFR expected late. Improvement to only low MVFR is expected at KCMX by late aftn. At KSAW, downslope nature of the w to nw flow should help to maintain MVFR cigs thru the evening. IFR is expected late in the night into the morning hrs. Daytime heating should then help cigs rise to MVFR by late morning thru the aftn. Some -ra/-dz is possible at all terminals tonight along with BR at KIWD/KCMX. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 357 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2017 As low pressure track east of Lake Superior cyclonic winds near the low will diminish through the evening. In some locations fog may be locally dense, Into Friday morning, winds will relax to around 10 to 15 knots as the surface pressure gradient weakens with low pressure exiting the region. Winds through the weekend and much of next week are expected to remain 15 knots or less. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ014. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...Rolfson MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
701 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 405 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Storms are beginning to percolate across north central and northeast Nebraska in uncapped enviroment ahead of surface boundary. Per 18z OAX sounding and SPC MA, area south of interstate 80 still somewhat capped. CAM have been little erratic on convective development, with RAP doing the best with initiation. Mid-level shear decent with OAX sounding showing 50-60kt in mid-levels. Weak shear in the low levels, so any tornado development likely will be coincident with surface low and along boundary that currenly arcs along and east of Missouri River. Used consensus blend of CAM for PoP and weather this evening and through the overnight. Approaching H5 short weave will allow additional storm development along boundary that will stretch southward into Kansas. Based on CAM, bulk of activity will be out of forecast area by 08utc. Cyclonic flow aloft and H8 convergence will provide focus for isolated showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder during the afternoon. Passage of vort max late in the day, will bring large scale subsidence across the region and a reprieve from storms by Friday evening. Little or no precipitation threat Saturday or Saturday night. Warm air advection and return flow may allow for isolated convection early Sunday morning, but expect activity to diminish by late morning. Accepted short-term model consensus temperatures for the most part Friday through Saturday. On Sunday, GEFS members hinting that temperatures could be a little warmer than consensus blend. Due to combinations of upper level ridging, H8 thermal ridge and compressional warming ahead of southward moving surface boundary, decided to raise temperatures a few degrees. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 405 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Medium range models have been consistent with MCS development Sunday night into Monday, though timing and location have varied from run to run. Due to ongoing inconsistency, keep PoPs only in high chance range. Perhaps a little break from precip chances later in the day on Monday, then unfortunately, shortwave moving through the central plains on Tuesday may dampen holiday activities. Accepted consensus/guidance temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Ongoing convection affecting KOFK TAF site, but expect storms to move southeast of the area by 0200 UTC. Lowest ceilings with convection will be higher end MVFR, with occasional thunderstorm gusts to 50kt associated with severe storms. Lingering showers may affect the area until 05UTC. VFR conditions will persist after 05UTC. KOMA and KLNK TAF sites likely will begin to see storms beginning 02-03UTC. The best potential for strong to severe convection will be 03-04 UTC, when visibilties will be reduced to 1-3SM and thunderstorm gusts 45-50kt could occur. Per convective allowing models, storms will affect these areas until 05-06UTC. There is some indication of MVFR ceilings developing between 07-12UTC, but forecast models have been somewhat inconsistent, so for the time being keep conditions VFR after 07UTC. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fortin LONG TERM...Fortin AVIATION...Fortin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
717 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .UPDATE... FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Some scattered showers are around this afternoon. HRRR has these dying down with the loss of daytime heating. Expect another round of showers and storms tomorrow followed by a better chance of more widespread activity Friday night and Saturday as some upper energy sweeps through the area. Still think we could see a couple strong storms on Saturday with the increased bulk shear provided by the weak shortwave. Wet microbursts would be the concern. Sunday continues to look like the drier day this weekend. There will still be some diurnal activity with the greatest chances south of I-40. Temperatures for Friday and Saturday will see highs in the mid 80s for most locations and lows near 70. Sunday will be a couple degrees warmer given less cloud cover and shower activity. Monday through Wednesday will be more of the same with scattered thunderstorms. Highs will be another couple degrees warmer with highs touching 90 in a lot of locations. Another shortwave will try to make its way toward the area from the central plains but models have really slowed down the progression. Will carry 40s pops Wednesday and Thursday until models have a better handle on what to do with this feature. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. CKV/BNA/MQY/CSV...Diurnal shwrs/tstms should generally dissipate by 30/03Z with at least VCNTY shwrs/tstms possible. Some MVFR fog and MVFR/IFR ceilings possible terminals 30/03Z-30/15Z. Next round of diurnal shwrs/tstms should commence 30/16Z-30/24Z with at least vcnty shwrs/tstms possible...expect at CSV where moisture depth once again will be prominent enough along with more pronounced upper level troughing influences to support categorical shwrs/tstms. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......Reagan AVIATION........31
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
859 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will continue to warm into the weekend, and humidity levels will also increase. This will return the risk for showers and storms, mainly Friday and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... BUFKIT soundings continue to advertise a fairly strong lid on instability as was the case on the 12z sounding this morning. This has hardly eroded, and it likely responsible for the weak activity that has been attempting to form to our SW and work NEward this evening largely falling apart as it has moved toward and into our area. However, as a second shortwave trough tries to stream through the upper-level flow across the northern fringe of the area, convective activity there may start to have better luck overcoming the cap. Upstream convection has already developed to a larger degree than earlier HRRR and hi-res guidance prognosticated, which yields better confidence in continuing the PoPs across the northern reaches of the CWA the remainder of the evening and into the overnight as it streams eastward. Convection is showing no signs of waning as it is encroaching on our northern PA zones, and PoPs have been summarily increased due to increased confidence in a continuation of cap busting as this convection treks eastward along I-80 beyond sunset. Dewpoints continue to rise with some locations in the Ohio River Valley touching 70F as of last hour. This will place a fairly high floor under our overnight lows. Tonight will be several degrees warmer than the last few nights. Fries && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Friday will be a similar forecast to today, save for the additional warming and higher dewpoints. This warming in the mid-levels may further strengthen the cap, but the higher dewpoints will encourage instability numbers. Large scale ascent will again be dependent on evolution of upstream shortwave troughs, but we will be closer to the deeper parent trough and associated surface low. For these reasons, think that we still stand a better chance at afternoon convection, especially points north of Pittsburgh. Temperatures Friday will be above normal with much more noticeable humidity levels. Finally, by Saturday the upper-level trough will shift east crossing sweeping the surface cold front through the area. The result is Saturday will remain the best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Exact timing will play a big factor, but current thinking is enough instability and shear will exist to develop a few strong thunderstorms. Thus the current Marginal Risk from the SPC seems prudent. Temperatures will remain near average values, but with dewpoints nearing 70, muggy conditions will hold. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mostly dry weather is expected to return Sun/Mon as surface ridging builds underneath the upper trough. Another trough is progged to advance E from the Midwest and Plains regions Tue, though with uncertainty in timing and location limited POPs to the chance category for now on the 4th of July. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Continued with prevailing VFR conditions through the next 24 hours, although there are a couple of caveats. FKL/DUJ in particular will need to be watched over the next several hours as a band of showers and thunderstorms crosses Ohio into northern PA later this evening. Expect some weakening as diurnal heating is lost, but an approaching shortwave should allow some activity to continue past sunset. Handled with VCSH for now and will amend if threat increases. Isolated activity at best is expected south to near PIT, with a dry night further south. Southwest wind gusts will diminish over the next couple of hours. There is a small potential for MVFR ceilings around sunrise especially north and west of PIT, but will hold off on this for now pending fate of evening convection. Better thunderstorm chances will arrive Friday as there should be less inhibition to convective development. Scattered coverage is anticipated, and VCTS was used to highlight this. .OUTLOOK... Restriction chances will continue into Saturday with the approach and passage of a cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Outflow boundary from the morning convection has reached portions of southern KS. As of now the boundary is south of the forecast area and is not showing much signs of moving northward. The cape along and south of this boundary is around 3000 j/kg and effective shear is around 50 kt. Storms are expected to develop in the next few hours as the cap erodes, although north of the boundary there is still a decent cap at 750 mb. Convection initation maybe be somewhere southwest of Wichita where temperatures are in the upper 90s. There is also an area of agitated cumulus along the boundary extending into southeast KS. Some of these storms could move into portions of east central near I-35 close to the boundary. The enhanced low level shear associated with the boundary could support isolated tornadoes with any supercell that can develop. Of course large hail and damaging wind gusts are also possible this evening. Later this evening the surface trough bisects the area from southwest to northeast and could become the focus for elevated convection. A handful of high resolution models are hinting that storms train along this trough and therefore pose a flash flood threat. The WRF and HRRR ensembles are highlighting probabilities of 2 to 3 inches of rainfall in 6 hours exceeding 50 percent mainly across east central KS. Some areas received 2 to 4 inches last night and this morning, with the highest amounts in north central KS. The lowest rainfall that occurred was portions of east central KS so these locations can take a decent round of rain. Although some isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out especially along I-70. An MCS is expected to move out of eastern CO this afternoon and track into south central KS tonight. The severe activity should stay south of the forecast area, or maybe come close to the I-35 corridor. The MCS may follow the east to west orientated outflow boundary that still has an identity. The chances for showers and storms continues through tomorrow morning. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Upper trough axis is expected to move through northeast Kansas Friday night. The forcing associated with the wave along with ample shear, moderately steep lapse rates and about 1000 J/kg of mucape will be sufficient for some thunderstorms across north central and northeast Kansas. High pressure will build into eastern Kansas early Saturday morning ushering in drier air. Northwest upper flow expected through Sunday as a ridge builds upstream over the Rockies. A couple of waves moving through on Sunday will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms across south central and southeast Kansas. Additional energy ejecting out into the Plains Sunday night may lead to the development of elevated thunderstorms or a possible MCS late Sunday night into Monday morning as the low level jet increases and transports Moisture northward into north central and northeast Kansas. Models differ on the timing and speed of an upper level trough early next week across the central Plains. The ECMWF and the GFS have the upper trough over central and eastern Kansas on Independence day while the Canadian has the trough axis over Missouri by the evening hours. Given the likelihood of the upper trough over eastern Kansas will maintain chances of thunderstorms Thursday night into Wednesday. Dry weather is expected for next Thursday. Temperatures will gradually warm from Saturday through the end of next week. Warmest temperatures will be across north central and central Kansas. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Confidence is again rather low on specifics with convective potential, which is again the main concern. Have sided closer to recent HRRR guidance with best potential for thunderstorms after 06Z. Outflow winds and brief visibility restrictions look to again be the main impacts with any TSRA. Frontal passage should bring steady VFR conditions back in by 12Z. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sanders LONG TERM...53 AVIATION...65