Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/25/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
940 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017
Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving across parts of southeast
MN at this time ahead of a potent mid-level PV-anomaly pushing
southeastward through central MN. Latest RAP shows lobe of 700-300
PV-advection pushing in with this wave and is expected to continue
fueling shower/thunderstorms into early this evening. Will be
watching for a few stronger storms capable of small hail and sub-
severe wind gusts in the 40-50 mph range as RAP also showing decent
30-35kt bulk shear along/south of I-90 with MUCAPE in the 500-
1000J/kg range. Look for a diminishing trend later this evening and
pretty much precipitation-free by midnight with loss of surface
heating and as we get on the subsident side of the passing wave.
Otherwise, rest of tonight looks to be a chilly one with lows
dipping into the mid 40s to near 50.
Another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
expected to develop by late Sunday morning, lasting into the evening
with lingering cold cyclonic flow aloft. In addition, models bring
another mid-level trough through. Bulk of these showers/isolated
storms expected to be east of the Mississippi River and most
concentrated northeast of I-94, closer to the better mid-level
forcing and steeper lapse rates. Otherwise, plan on significantly
cooler than normal highs Sunday only in the 60s with lows Sunday
night in the middle 40s to near 50.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017
Cool cyclonic flow continues through Monday for lingering small-end
shower/isolated thunder chances, mainly east of the Mississippi
River. Look for highs in the 65-70 degree range.
High pressure builds across the region for Monday night through
Tuesday for dry/warmer conditions. Temperatures still look to be
some 5 to 10 degrees below normal, but do not think there will be
any complaints as highs Tuesday top off in the 70s.
Latest GFS/ECMWF in good agreement in pushing an area of low
pressure and cold front into/through the region Tuesday nigh through
Thursday night for the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms. Will
have to keep an eye on the possibility for strong to severe storms
centered on Wednesday. The GFS shows fairly boisterous MUCAPE in the
2000-3800J/kg range while the EC only shows 500-1500J/kg. Plenty of
available Bulk Shear in the 35-45kt range.
Westerlies aloft bring a couple more short wave trough across the
region Friday through Saturday for continued shower/thunder chances.
Otherwise, no big warm-ups on the horizon with fairly high-zonal
flow. Looks like highs in the middle 70s to lower 80s Thursday and
in the 70s Friday/Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 940 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017
Cigs: Modeled RH fields and current satellite imagery show an area
of mvfr/vfr cigs sinking southeast across nd/northern MN - with the
models bringing it across the TAF sites by 12z Sun (or so). Should
get a little diurnal bump as Sunday wears on, and likely scattering
out Sunday evening.
WX/vsby: Another round of shra/ts similar to today for Sunday, as a
shortwave/favorable low level lapse rates/instability work on the
available moisture. Perhaps a bit better chances east of the
Mississippi river. Main threat time would be from 19-00z.
See some threat for valley fog at KLSE for the first part of the
overnight tonight - especially if winds remain decoupled. Clouds
coming in from the north and 10 kts or greater winds just off the
deck will be limiting factor. Shallow? Will leave P6SM for the
moment, but trends will monitored.
Wind: west northwest through Sunday. Will stay up mostly tonight,
although could stay decoupled at KLSE until sunrise, then increase
some on Sunday. Expect some gustiness by late morning, with again
enhanced gusts around any stronger shower/storm.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....Rieck
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1011 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Partly cloudy skies and scattered showers will taper off
overnight in northeast Pennsylvania and the Catskills with light
and variable winds. Unsettled weather will prevail in the
forecast Sunday through Tuesday with cool temperatures. Dry
weather is expected to return on Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
1000 PM update...radar shows ana area of showers across
northeast PA into Sullivan County NY. NAMnest 3km from 18z
nailed the evolution of this precipitation as it moved into
northeast PA/Sullivan Co. NY. The model was off just a bit but
the latest HRRR was too far south at this time. For POPs we
extrapolated this precipitation out of northeast PA and Sullivan
Co. NY by 7z or so. This precipitation was forming as a boundary
drops southeast into this area associated with the short wave
moving across the eastern Lakes. Rest of forecast area will see
scattered to broken clouds to start the overnight with some
clearing later tonight.
630 PM EDT Update...radar shows isolated to scattered showers
helped by a short wave moving east-northeast from the eastern
Lakes toward southern Quebec. This wave was providing some
lifting in the presence of diurnal heating. The NAM 3km nest
was doing very well with the precipitation at this time and have
used its hourly reflectivity output as a starting point for
hourly POPS. This model as well as the HRRR which looks a
little overdone bring some showers down into Northeast PA
between 22z and 01z before exiting. The loss of the daytime
heating combined with the passage of the short wave will lead to
the demise of all precipitation by late evening. Otherwise
made no significant changes to forecast beyond midnight.
250 PM EDT Update...
A diurnal cu field has developed across the region in the wake
of this mornings cold front. Cool air aloft, low-lvl moisture
and the summer`s sun will allow this deck to continue through
the afternoon. Around sunset the deck will start to dissipate
and mostly clear skies will prevail through much of the night.
Some thunderstorms have developed along the lake breeze in
western NY. Do not believe this activity will reach our area,
but it is possible we may see an isolated rain shower over
central NY. Sfc temps are currently in the mid/uppr 70s over
central NY and uppr 70s/low 80s over NEPA. Expect temps to rise
a few more degrees this afternoon, and fall into the low/mid 50s
tonight as 850MB temps fall a few degrees overnight.
Tonight the next mid-lvl shortwave trough approaches from the west
and the broad uppr lvl long-wave trough shifts towards the
northeast. This are our next features to generate showers and
thunderstorms over the region. These features will move many
embedded waves over the region, none of which particularly strong,
but enough dynamic lift aloft to possibly generate scattered
showers. Believe these showers will be mostly diurnally driven in
nature and the best chance for showers will be during peak heating.
Sunday afternoon temps will be slightly cooler than today, ranging
in the uppr 60s/low 70s over central NY and 70s over NEPA (uppr 70s
over far se NEPA).
Sunday night a secondary front will move across the region and 850MB
temps will fall to around 5 deg C. (which are quite impressive) This
amount of CAA will result in some minor lake enhanced rain showers
over the region, thus the chance for rain showers over central NY
will linger through the night. Temps Sun night will fall into the
low/mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Unsettled weather continues in the short term with a long wave
trof over the Great Lakes. Short waves rotating through the trof
along with surface trofs and fronts will increase the chance
for afternoon showers and thunderstorms both Monday and
Tuesday. There is also the chance of a shower even outside of
the peak heating hours. With the upper low in place,
temperatures will average below normal both days.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Perhaps a brief break in the showers Wednesday as the upper trof
lifts and some ridging as the surface builds in on Wednesday
into Thursday. Later Thursday a strong wave flattens the SE
ridge and drapes a surface front over the area. This will be the
focus of low level convergence and showers and thunderstorms.
Front moves little so do not expect much of a change into Friday
with continued showers and thunderstorms, especially in the
afternoon and evening.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Scattered showers are moving across the southern tier of NY and
the northern tier of Pa early this evening. These showers will
produce a brief shower at BGM and could graze AVP with a brief
shower later this evening. Skies will become clear to partly
cloudy overnight with VFR conditions. VFR conditions will
continue on Sunday with sct-bkn clouds developing. Scattered
showers will develop during the mid-to-late afternoon with
coverage too low to include at any of the TAF sites at this
time.
Winds will be variable or southwesterly at less than 10 kts
tonight then southwest increasing at around 10 kts on Sunday.
Outlook...
Sunday - Tuesday...Mostly VFR, but restrictions are possible
with occasional showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...VFR.
Friday...Restrictions likely in showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/KAH
NEAR TERM...DJN/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...KAH/MSE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
815 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 753 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017
Nwly flow aloft remains over the area with axis of upper level jet
across the far ern plains. This type of set up could lead to some
nocturnal tstm activity so will keep in some low pops overnight
across the far ern plains.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017
Northwesterly flow aloft continues today with slightly higher
midlevel moisture pushing into the northern state border due to a
shortwave. ACARS soundings show the cap weakening over the
plains, this will help showers and weak storms form over the
higher terrain and Palmer Divide area later this afternoon and
push southeast into the early evening. The shortwave should
provide a northeasterly push with slight increase in midlevel moisture,
with the HRRR continuing to show convection forming over Larimer
County foothills. Recent runs however have been keeping in the
high terrain, signaling the plains remaining too capped. Satellite
trends seem to favor the cap holding at least for the next couple
hours.
High surface pressure will remain over the Great Plains through
Sunday, keeping east to southeasterly flow into the area. Look for
slightly warmer temperatures Sunday which will help obtain low
amounts of CAPE with the available moisture. There will be a
slight chance of showers and weak thunderstorms over most of the
area except the northern Front Range urban corridor where models
hold CIN over.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017
On Monday...high pressure ridge aloft will move over Colorado with
warming temperatures expected over the plains. Still moisture will
be rather limited under the ridge with mainly isolated late day
storms over mountains and higher terrain. On Tuesday the ridge
will shift east of Colorado into the central plains and replaced
with a more westerly flow aloft and a jet streak over northern
sections of the state. There should be a bit more moisture with
the flow for isolated showers/storms over much of Northern
Colorado.
For Thursday and Friday, the flow will shift west to northwest
and appears there will be several frontal boundaries which will
cool temperatures again to below seasonal normals. May see a bit
higher chances of showers late in the week with more low level
moisture available along with a trof passage late thursday and
Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 753 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017
Denver cyclone was se of the airport with ely lvl winds. Winds
may stay ely thru 06z and then go to more sly by 09z. Ceilings
will remain in the 8000-9000 ft range thru 09z with no ceilings
expected between 09z and 15z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...RPK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
913 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak ridge of high pressure will prevail over the area
overnight. An upper level trough of low pressure will remain to
our west through early this week. The trough will lift out
during the mid week period as high pressure builds to our south.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
9:13 PM Update...One cold front has pushed off the coast, but
there is a secondary cold front across Quebec this evening.
Scattered showers ahead of this front appear to be enhanced by a
mid to upper level disturbance. The HRRR has a reasonable
depiction of these showers, and the HRRR would have the last of
them ending by around or just after midnight across the eastern
zones. The main adjustment was to the PoP/Wx grids for the next
few hours to account for these showers. Otherwise, only minor
tweaks based on the latest observations.
Previous discussion...
Most of the shwrs have already moved out of the Rgn as of mid
aftn as drier llvl air moves into Rgn from QB. Any isold shwrs
should end by erly eve as a weak ridge of hi pres tries to
exert some influence ovr the Rgn later tngt, allowing for clrg
and and some radiational cooling ovr Nrn broad rvr vlys.
Sun will begin fair, but then aftn clds and eventually mid to
late aftn shwrs and a few tstms will develop as an upper
trof/low from SE Ont begins to apch. With sig lower PWs and
fast mid troposphere flow as evident by Corfidi vectors, rnfl
potential will be less with fast moving shwrs and tstms than
last ngt and this morning. Both lows tngt and hi temps Sun will
be near seasonal norms.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Our weather pattern will remain a bit unsettled as the new week
begins with a shallow trough of low pressure remaining to our west
as weak disturbances track out of this trough and across our area.
Some spotty showers and thunderstorms may be around Sunday evening
as one disturbance and a weak surface trough move across the area.
Another weak disturbance and surface trough will move through on
Monday bringing another chance for spotty showers and isolated
thunderstorms. The best chances for showers Monday will be over the
higher elevation to the west. Another slightly stronger disturbance
will lift out of the trough and slide across the region late Monday
night into Tuesday with a better chance for more showers. Some
thunderstorms may form across central and interior Downeast
locations along and just south of a weak surface boundary over the
region Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upper trough which will be to our west during the early week
will lift out to our north on Wednesday. As it does, it will pull
a weak cold front across the area bringing another chance for
scattered showers and some isolated thunderstorms. High pressure
will build to our south during the mid-week period and warm,
humid air pushing north around the high will push north against
a frontal boundary dividing the warmer air to the south from
cooler air to the north in eastern Canada. A low tracking along
this front will bring a chance for rain late Thursday into
Friday. High pressure dropping down from Canada may then bring
drying for early next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR xpctd all TAF sites xcpt briefly MVFR late this
evening at the northern Taf sites in showers, and Sunday aftn
in any tstm or heavier shwr.
SHORT TERM: MVFR to VFR conditions are likely Sunday night into
early Monday with VFR conditions likely Monday afternoon.
Conditions may drop back to MVFR Monday night into early
Tuesday, with localized IFR conditions in fog possible Downeast.
Generally VFR to MVFR conditions are then likely Tuesday night
into Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The seas are still around 6 feet as of 9 PM, so will
extend the small craft advisory for hazardous seas for our
outer zones until 1 AM Sunday. Both the wind and seas should
subside later tngt into Sun. Still some areas of dense fog over
the waters, but that should see vast improvement later this
evening as the cold front pushes offshore.
SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA Sunday
night through early next week. Humid air over the cold waters
will likely result in fog limiting visibilities at times through
early next week.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 1 AM EDT Sunday
for ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
Near Term...CB/VJN
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...CB/VJN/Bloomer
Marine...CB/VJN/Bloomer
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
946 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017
.DISCUSSION...
The rain activity has tapered off to isolated showers at 9:30 PM
with the most activity located near the front which was draped
across the northern counties of the forecast area. Isolated
showers were also occurring between Houston and Galveston near the
radar. Another area with scattered showers developing was along an
outflow boundary located along the west of Freeport.
Still expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
across Southeast Texas through the remainder of tonight. Numerous
weak boundaries set down by earlier convection, the main outflow
boundary along the coast and the front in the north will all be a
focus for development. PW/s from the 00Z soundings ranged from 1.7
inches at CRP to 2.0 at LCH. This indicated plenty of moisture
will be available. Model soundings show an increase in the PW
field throughout the night. The area will also be under a weak
upper level trough of low pressure.
Tweaked the rain chances downward for the remainder of this
evening. Kept rain chances as is for the overnight period.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/
AVIATION.../00Z TAF/
A rather diffuse frontal boundary seems to be meandering from
near Del Rio to Waco eastward into central LA. Basically the
gradient between mid 70 dewpoints to the south and mid 60
dewpoints to the north. Radar shows little if any convection over
the area with a few new showers developing near KPSN along the
front. Overall think that the boundary layer has been worked over
and stabilized by today`s convection that re-development of
convection will be a challenge. But then you glance at the latest
HRRR runs and start to think otherwise. Possible that between
02-03Z convection could develop along the front with some outflows
from KCLL to KCXO. For now there is no mention of convection but
quite possible that amendments will be needed to account for new
storms. Convection should stay north of KIAH but any outflows
could re-generate convection give the moist airmass.
Another scenario and is if convection does not develop, skies
could clear out enough that with clam winds and wet grounds, fog
could form over the area. SREF and even the GLAMP seem to suggest
this possibility so added mention of lower visibility for a couple
of hours.
Tomorrow looks to be possibly a repeat of today with late morning
convection forming and lasting into the afternoon. TAFs were
adjusted an hour or two for convection forming in the late
morning. Any MVFR/IFR conditions should improve during this time
as well with day time heating.
Overpeck
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/
DISCUSSION...
Onshore winds have slowly become more easterly this afternoon, as a
front pushes in from the north. Still continuing to monitor a
few showers straggling along the coast and also in Washington
County. Based on short time guidance, the best chance for possible
showers to develop tonight would be in the northern counties of
the CWA. Although, after the convection we saw earlier today
thinking that conditions have stabilized, which would put a
damper on the chance for wide spread development tonight. If this
pans out, PoPs will need to be lowered for the overnight period.
Conditions will definitely remain muggy, with forecast soundings
keeping PWs between 2.0 to 2.25 inches through Sunday morning, and
by late Sunday lowering to around 1.90 to 2.0 inches. With
convective temperatures remaining in the low to mid 80s over the
weekend and with such a saturated airmass lingering over SE TX,
the ingredients are there for shower and thunderstorm
development.
Tomorrow, precip will most likely develop near leftover boundaries
from today as well as along a weak sea breeze that could push
onshore by late afternoon as we approach max temperatures. High
temperatures for Sunday through Tuesday will reach up into the mid
to upper 80s. There are also some higher values of vorticity that
will move across the region in the upper levels, that could help to
provide some lift first on Sunday afternoon and again late Tuesday.
Still low confidence in the timing and location of exactly where
this precip will end up over the next few days as most of the models
lack agreement in the locations of development.
SE TX remains centered between two upper level high pressure systems
through next Friday. Expecting winds to remain out of the east until
Wednesday, and then we will begin to see a return to onshore
flow. PWs will be lower by Wednesday with PoPs also lowering, as
an area of surface high pressure begins to move in from the east.
Therefore, max temperatures will be on the rise by late next week,
reaching into low 90s across much of SE TX.
Hathaway
MARINE...
A weak outflow boundary may result in a few showers and
thunderstorms across the nearshore waters this afternoon with a
brief period of offshore flow possible in its wake. Otherwise, light
to occasionally moderate east to southeast flow is expected across
the coastal waters through mid-week and this will help keep tide
levels 1-1.5 feet above normal over the next few days. In addition
to elevated tides, east to southeast flow will help promote an
increased risk for rip currents. A Beach Hazards Statement is in
effect through tonight for these strong rip currents and additional
Beach Hazards Statements may be needed at times through early next
week for elevated tides producing wave run up along Bolivar
Peninsula and increased rip current risk.
Lee troughing over the High Plains will result in onshore flow
strengthening to caution or possibly advisory criteria mid to late
next week.
Huffman
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 73 87 72 88 72 / 50 50 30 40 20
Houston (IAH) 75 89 73 87 73 / 40 50 40 50 20
Galveston (GLS) 79 86 78 85 78 / 30 40 40 50 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
949 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017
.UPDATE...
HRRR has backed off on the small rain chances over the SE on the
latest run or two but a few very weak returns are showing up on
radar at this time. Temp/dew point spreads are in excess of 10
degrees where the echoes are showing up so most likely nothing
more than sprinkles are hitting the ground.
With weak short wave still expected to move through and into an
area that is a little more moist, will keep the silent precip
chances going. Remainder of the forecast also looks good with only
a tweak or two needed.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 639 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017)
AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through the period as weak high
pressure is located to the north. Only mid to high level moisture
prevails with generally light winds.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017
)
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday
The CDFNT that brought the active wx to AR on Fri/Fri night, was
located well S of AR this aftn. NLY sfc winds behind the fnt contd
to usher much drier air into the region, as noted by SFC dewpoints
ranging fm the mid 50s to mid 60s. At the same time just 24 hours
ago, we were looking at dewpoints in the mid 70s to arnd 80 degrees.
Meanwhile, a good bit of mainly high lvl clouds have kept mid aftn
readings generally in the 70s.
Hi-Res model data does show some potential for small rain chcs late
tngt ovr the SE half of the FA, as a weak upr short wv passes acrs
the area. With much drier airmass in place in the low lvls, plan to
not mention any POPS tngt ATTM, but wl let evening shift monitor
later model data.
Otherwise, still looking at a mostly dry fcst thru the PD sfc high
pres prevails. We will see a NWLY flow aloft cont as well thanks to
a broad upr trof ovr the ERN half of the nations, with an upr rdg
persisting ovr the Rockies. Small chcs for convection wl return to
the fcst ovr NRN AR later on Mon, as a weak upr impulse drops SEWD
towards the state. Temps wl cont below seasonal norms the next few
days, which is not often mentioned for AR in late June.
LONG TERM...Monday Night through Saturday
The extended period will start with high pressure at the surface and
aloft over the region. This will bring dry conditions, mostly sunny
skies with highs a bit below normal. On Wednesday, the surface high
pressure is forecast to move east of AR, as a return south flow
comes back to AR. Some weak upper energy is possible in northwestern
AR areas, and with an approaching surface system in the plains, a
slight chance of convection may develop. But at this time kept the
chance of rain low due to uncertainty. On Thursday, a bit better
chance of convection may be possible, as better upper short wave
energy and improved south flow sets up into AR. The heating in the
afternoon and early evening will be the best chances, but again only
a 20 to 40 percent chance is forecast. Friday and into the weekend,
models do show the best upper lift and a possible frontal system to
sag closer to possibly into AR, and this would bring the best chance
of convection.
As mentioned, temperatures will start mild for this time of year,
with lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s. A gradually warming trend
and increase in humidity will be seen as the week continues.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
600 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017
.DISCUSSION...Please see Aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions currently across all TAF locations.
Short range ensemble forecasts are indicating that MVFR conditions
will develop across all TAF sites overnight...most likely by 09Z.
It`s possible that conditions could even become IFR for a brief
period. Skies should become VFR by late Sunday morning. The high
resolution HRRR is indc that convection is possible late Sunday
morning at KMAF...however chances are too low to include in the
TAF at this time.
Strobin
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 156 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/
DISCUSSION...
Today tstms are most favored across the srn CWFA in closer proximity
to the cold front and where upslope flow and modestly steep mid
level LRs are noted. Otherwise this PM storms will form west of the
continental divide in SW-W NM and track e-se per NW mid level flow
with expected arrival in SE NM/Wrn CWFA around 06Z/Sunday and
possibly PB after 09Z. Outflow boundaries and how much cooling
occurs from Sun AM tstms will dictate the convective potential
into Sun PM. Somewhat of a similar set-up Sunday night/Mon AM as
storms move se across NM arriving in the NW CWFA 12Z-15Z Mon.
Specifics of timing and location is difficult at best and forecast
thru Sunday-Monday will look like a "smattering" of PoPs due to
lack of clarification on features and source regions. Yet anther
shrtwv trof in NW flow Monday night is possible. Even though that
sounds simple enough that could be tied into shwrtv trof Mon AM of
which timing in largely uncertain, but it would tend to impact
n-e CWFA? High temps will remain below normal through Mon, but
trend up. Meanwhile mid level theta-e ridge axis will begin to
form Tue PM and along with daytime heating storm development
across srn NM mtns are favored. Per NW steering flow they will
have a good chance to move into SE NM late PM/evening. Said
theta-e ridge will then favor tstms across the Trans Pecos mtns
Wed-Thur, possibly drifting into the plains. According to ECMWF
this pattern would persist into Sat. 85h temps are warmer on these
12Z runs that previous 24hrs, so probably hot across the wrn 1/3
of CWFA in the extended.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 69 84 69 85 / 40 40 30 50
Carlsbad 70 89 69 89 / 50 30 60 20
Dryden 74 91 73 92 / 20 30 10 20
Fort Stockton 70 90 69 90 / 20 20 30 20
Guadalupe Pass 64 81 63 82 / 50 30 50 40
Hobbs 66 83 66 84 / 40 40 60 30
Marfa 64 86 62 85 / 20 20 30 20
Midland Intl Airport 69 86 69 87 / 40 30 30 50
Odessa 69 86 69 87 / 30 30 40 40
Wink 71 90 69 91 / 30 30 40 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
33/67/33
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
809 PM PDT Sat Jun 24 2017
.UPDATE...
Isolated storms formed on our side of the Sierra Crest from Mono
County to just south of Tahoe. Other storms fired just west of the
crest from Sierra City to Lassen Park. Overall the storms have
diminished, but a few showers remain west of the crest south of
highway 50. Expect an overall quiet night, but the wave mentioned
earlier, there will likely be some accas after sunrise north of
Tahoe. The wave and upper level lapse rates over 7.5 C/km would
support this. It doesn`t appear strong enough for any decent
convection, but an isolated strike or two during the morning hours
is not out of the question. This is handled well overall by the
previous forecast so no updates are anticipated at this time.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 143 PM PDT Sat Jun 24 2017/
SYNOPSIS...
Well above average temperatures continue through the weekend with
some cooling by early next week. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible near the Sierra this evening, spreading into parts of
western Nevada and northeast California Sunday. Critical fire
weather conditions are possible Monday as very dry air combines
with gusty winds. After a brief cool down to near normal
temperatures, a building ridge will bring another round of well
above normal temperatures to the region starting Friday. Flooding
will continue for the creeks in Mono County and portions of the
Walker River.
DISCUSSION...
Isolated convection is possible into the early evening hours along
the Sierra from Mono County north to around El Dorado County. The
latest HRRR guidance is less robust of the east side of the
Sierra...keeping much of the activity west of the crest. But the
HRRR does hold out some slight chances for the Alpine County area.
For the time being we will not reduce thunderstorm coverage...but
we be a little over done.
Attention turns to a mid level short wave lifting northeast across
the region Sunday. Models have been trending down in terms in
thunderstorm coverage with this feature. Timing is critical as a
morning passage would tend toward less coverage overall. Right
now it appears the best chance for increased coverage will be
north of I-80 and west of a line from Cedarville to Gerlach. A
potential vorticity maximum will be lifting across northeast
California by late afternoon...but this appears to be the only
mid/upper level support. Lapse rates aloft are not impressive and
there is little in the way of jet support. While the convection
should be rooted in a deep...well mixed boundary layer...the lack
of upper level support will limit organization and coverage.
Still...with increasing instability it is not out of the realm of
possibility that we will see early development and continual
cycling of storms from late morning into the afternoon. Any storms
that develop would be moving fast enough to limit precipitation
potential and produce dry lightning strikes. Showers linger into
late Sunday night and early Monday morning over the far north.
Drier air moves into the region and breezy winds develop Monday
and Tuesday. Monday looks like the day with the best potential for
critical fire weather conditions. See the Fire Weather discussion
for more details. In the wake of the short wave trough...heights
fall and temperatures Monday and Tuesday will drop back to just
slightly above normal. This will slow snowmelt a bit in the
higher elevations.
Another trough will slide toward the region from the northwest
Wednesday. This trough should bring mainly an increase in clouds
as low level moisture is lacking for showers. Northwest flow aloft
and low northeast develops in its wake Thursday.
By Friday a ridge starts to build back into the region. This will
bring a return to well above normal temperatures and possibly
enough instability for isolated convection along the Sierra. For
now we will leave mention of thunderstorms out of the forecast for
Friday and Saturday...but they may need to be added in a few days.
AVIATION...
Isolated storms along the Sierra should be the only aviation
concern for the first 12 hours of the forecast. A mid level trough
of low pressure lifting northeast across the region Sunday will
bring an increase in coverage for storms. The best chance for
storms is across northeast California and far western Nevada...but
we could see isolated storms all along the Sierra.
As the trough lifts out late Sunday night a few showers will
linger north of Susanville. Then...breezy winds will develop for
Monday with surface gusts approaching 30-35 kts in many locations.
Breezy continues continue into Tuesday...but the gusts will be a
little less than Monday.
FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures have warmed into the upper 90s with low 100s still
likely for the daily high for many locations in western Nevada
today. Recoveries were moderate to good in the Sierra last night
with poor to moderate for western Nevada. With temperatures running
warmer today, expect slightly poorer recoveries overnight into
Sunday which will heat back to the upper 90s to low 100s again.
Meanwhile, towering cumulus and a few thunderstorms have formed in
the Sierra and along the Long Valley Caldera rim in southern Mono
County. Expect thunderstorms to continue to form along outflow
boundaries and higher terrain of the Sierra mainly south of the
Tahoe Basin through the rest of the afternoon. Gusts in valleys
could be strong with slight potential for a stray dry lightning
strike.
Main changes to the ongoing forecast have been to trim thunderstorm
chances down slightly for Sunday as models continue to show an
earlier passage of a destabilizing upper wave. With this wave
passing earlier Sunday morning, instability aloft will be un-
phased from highest surface instability. Still, chances of
isolated thunderstorms cover a much larger area than recent
activity. Any storms that form will be capable of producing strong
gusts and dry lightning strikes, especially if they move over
western Nevada valley locations. Just a few strikes along the
Sierra Front would likely be enough to allow for new fire starts
since dried grasses are nearly continuous.
Finally, an upper low moves into northern California Monday increasing
winds across the region. Expect critical fire weather conditions
for western Nevada as winds gust around 35mph. As such, a fire
weather watch remains in effect for portions of western Nevada
including the Sierra Front, northern Lyon County, and
Churchill/Pershing Counties. Winds drop off below critical
thresholds Tuesday and Wednesday, but would still be able to drive
any grass fires that may occur.
Grasses east of Highway 395 in California, mainly in Lassen County,
have mostly cured and could propagate fire. While this zone is not
technically fire ready, it`s something to prepare for. It should
also be noted that sagebrush in western Nevada valleys is beginning
to show signs that it is becoming dry enough to carry fire; it may
not contribute to explosive fire growth, but it will be available to
burn. Boyd
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
NVZ450-453.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1022 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017
.DISCUSSION...
The evening sfc analysis indicated that our true weak sfc front
extends from Cntrl MS WNW to near the I-29 corridor of N LA/E TX
to N of the DFW Metroplex crossing the Red River into far SW OK.
This matches up well with the H850 frontal position, with drier
air noted via the sfc theta-e and elevated cigs near and N of
these bndrys, with the air mass farther S having been modified
since the broad mesoscale bndry from the AR MCS Friday moving
through E TX/Ncntrl LA early this morning. Meanwhile, the upper
air analysis still depicts a weak shear axis in place across
Scntrl and Deep E TX NE into Ncntrl LA, which has helped focus sct
convection this evening over these areas. The short term progs
remain in agreement with this shear axis drifting a tad SE
overnight, with the potential for weak convergence along the
H850-700 trough to result in sct convective redevelopment
overnight over Deep E TX/Srn sections of Ncntrl LA. The HRRR
remains rather bullish in its development after 06Z especially
over Ncntrl LA, but better instability current resides over Deep E
TX and along the lower Toledo Bend Country of Wcntrl LA, where
SBCapes of 1000-1500 J/Kg remains in place. With the current
convection backbuilding along Wwd moving outflow bndrys across
Shelby/Nrn San Augustine/Ern Angelina Counties attm, its feasible
that an uptick in convection here given the weak mid level
convergent axis may allow for sct areas of -SHRA/-TSRA to spill E
across our Srn most N LA Parishes. However, not expecting QPF
amounts as seen the last few days given the lack of deep lyr
forcing.
For the update, did tweak sky conditions to mostly cloudy, even
across NE TX/SE OK/SW AR, as additional AC develops and spreads SE
overnight as the cirrus shield thins. Also tapered pops back a tad
along the Srn fringes of the drier air near the I-20 corridor,
resulting in a few areas having slight chance pops removed for
Sunday. Did maintain mid and high chance pops for Deep E TX/Srn
sections of Ncntrl LA given even the 00Z NAM suggesting additional
sct development after 06Z for these areas. Also made some minor
upward tweaks to min temps as well, as the increasing AC and lack
of cool/dry advection should not allow temps to cool as much as
previously advertised, especially over SE OK/Nrn sections of SW
AR. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast is in good shape.
Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.
15
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 737 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/
AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex, a weak fropa has convection S and E of all
terminals. Sfc winds are NE 5KT for the most part. There is a
tut low lifting out of the W Gulf that is interesting and modeled
to lift current convection toward KMLU, but TSTMS are gusting out
and propagating the cluster toward KSHV. We will monitor as
setting sun may not see it`s demise with low lifting NE. For now
all sites rain free for the evening. Outlook is for high pressure
to win out bolstering the front to move farther S and W for a few
days. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 70 86 67 88 / 20 20 10 10
MLU 69 86 65 88 / 20 20 10 10
DEQ 64 87 64 86 / 10 10 10 10
TXK 66 86 65 86 / 10 10 10 10
ELD 65 86 63 87 / 10 10 10 10
TYR 70 85 68 87 / 20 20 20 20
GGG 69 86 67 88 / 20 20 10 20
LFK 73 85 70 88 / 50 40 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
15
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
845 PM PDT Sat Jun 24 2017
.SYNOPSIS...The prolonged heat wave over the region will finally
break early this coming week as a weak weather system moves across
the western states. This system will result in enhanced winds early
this week will increase the fire danger. Isolated thunderstorms
will remain possible over the Sierra through Sunday.
&&
.UPDATE...An isolated thunderstorm south of Panamint Springs is on
the decrease currently. HRRR suggests isolated showers or
thunderstorms possible up to midnight across parts of Inyo and
Esmeralda County. Convection being driven by an upper level
disturbance moving north through central California. NAM shows more
instability across southern Mohave County by midday Sunday before
more stable air spreads in during the late afternoon/early evening
tomorrow. Will await additional model data before committing adding
a slight chance to the Hualapai Mtns Sunday. Update for the rest of
tonight is out.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...139 PM PDT Sat Jun 24 2017
.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday.
As expected, isolated to scattered clouds have developed today
along with a few showers/thunderstorms over the southern Sierra.
Little impact is expected from these showers outside of perhaps
some gusty winds. Elsewhere, temperatures as of this writing were
running 0-2 degrees higher than 24 hours ago, right on track with
the current forecast.
The forecast for Sunday also remains on track with most areas
seeing 2-3 degrees of cooling. The chances for showers/isolated
thunderstorms will remain over the southern Sierra through Sunday
as well. Finally, I did add a mention of smoke to the far east-
central portions of the forecast area (Mesquite/Colorado City) for
tonight to account for any smoke drift from the Brian Head fire in
Utah.
For Monday, the latest guidance has come in slightly cooler than
the previous forecast. As a result I lowered high temperatures
around a degree, taking Las Vegas down to 109. It`s going to be a
race to the finish for the record number of consecutive 110F+ days
in Las Vegas. The current record stands at 10 day and Monday
would be the consecutive 10th day of this heat wave. I made no
changes to the excessive heat product as 109 vs 110 will provide
little relief after such a stretch of hot conditions. Monday will
also see an uptick in wind speeds across the region, with
widespread gusts of 20-30 mph, and isolated gusts around 35 mph.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday.
By Tuesday, the ridge over the southwest will be suppressed a bit as
a shortwave moves across the northern Great Basin. Suppression of
the ridge will continue through much of the work week as a trough
over Alberta, Canada will deepen and drape over much of the western
CONUS. Temperatures will see a 3-5 degrees drop by Tue with highs
only a few degrees above normals by mid week. Breezy southwest winds
are expected each afternoon with wind speeds 10 to 20 mph with gusts
up to 25 mph. Wednesday afternoon, both the GFS and ECMWF are
showing a tight gradient over much of central Mohave County. This
will cause some gusty southwest winds up to 30 mph Wed afternoon.
Otherwise, dry and mostly clear conditions through the work week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...The prolonged heat wave over the region will finally
break early this coming week as a weak weather system moves across
the western states. This system will result in enhanced winds early
this week which, when combined with dry and warm conditions, will
increase the threat of critical fire conditions. Winds look to peak
in most areas on Monday, with fairly widespread gusts of 20-30 mph,
and isolated gusts around 35 mph. Isolated thunderstorms will remain
possible over the Sierra through Sunday.
&&
.CLIMATE...Near record to record high temperatures will be
possible today and Sunday. The current record of consecutive
days above 110 degrees in Las Vegas is 10 days (1961), and for 115
degrees, 4 days (2005).
Las Vegas, NV Climate
Forecast High Temps (F) Daily Record Max Temps (F)
SAT (6/24): 114 113 (1961)
SUN (6/25): 112 115 (1970)
Forecast low Temps (F) Daily Record High Min Temps (F)
SUN (6/25): 88 86 (1974)
&&
.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light southwest to west is expected
this evening with less than 8kts expected. Hot temperatures will
continue through Monday with afternoon highs at or above 110
degrees. Scattered high clouds will be observed today however VFR
conditions will prevail. Typical overnight trends are expected, with
winds coming back up again late Sunday morning out of the northeast,
but remaining below 10kts.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the
southern Sierra this afternoon with brief gusty winds likely near
any storms. Gusty west winds 25-30 knots will develop across the
western Mojave Desert late this afternoon and evening. Hot
temperatures will continue across the Mojave Desert areas through
the weekend with afternoon highs at or above 110 degrees. Scattered
high clouds and VFR conditions expected.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...Observed flows on unregulated creeks, specifically
Independence Creek, Big Pine Creek and Rock Creek indicated flows
have decreased slightly since their peak flows occurred earlier this
week. Creeks, streams and rivers along the eastern Sierra slopes of
Inyo County as well as the Owens Valley will be flowing high and
fast into at least early next week. Minor flooding could occur near
creeks as well as a few low water crossings on some roadways.
Remember, never drive through flooded roadways or around barricades.
Also, pastureland or farmland adjacent to creeks, streams or rivers
could experience areas of standing water.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
Update...Pierce
SHORT TERM...Wolcott
LONG TERM....Kryston
AVIATION.....Allen
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