Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/24/17

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
533 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE The backdoor cold front has moved through KSAF, but has temporarily stalled east of KABQ and is forecast to push through at 01Z then through KAEG at 02Z. An airport weather warning is in effect at KABQ, where east canyon/gap winds will gusts to +40kts this evening and overnight. Convection is diminishing rapidly and will not impact area terminals this evening. MVFR cigs are forecast to develop overnight at KLVS, then later Saturday morning at KTCC and KROW. A round of storms is forecast to develop along the Continental Divide Saturday afternoon and move southeast toward the Rio Grande Valley, possibly impacting KAEG, KABQ and KSAF going into the evening hours. 11 && .PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017... .SYNOPSIS... A cold front has pushed through the eastern plains today, which dropped the temperatures considerably. The front will push through the gaps of the central mountain chain late this afternoon and evening. Strong and gusty winds are expected below canyons in the Rio Grande Valley. The front will continue to race westward overnight. Moisture behind the front will set the stage for an active weekend with showers and thunderstorms. Some storms may be strong or severe with hail and gusty winds. The active weather will continue into Monday, then drier air should arrive for mid week. && .DISCUSSION... The back door cold front has backed up to the central mountain chain this afternoon, and soon, will push through the gaps and into the Rio Grande Valley. Looks like the easterly winds will initially be lighter, but will ramp up quickly this evening and persist into the overnight. Considered moving up the Wind Advisory to start at 4pm or so, but the strongest winds should be after 6pm, so will leave as is. The front will quickly shift westward, nearing the AZ border around midnight. A few storms are developing along the central mountain chain this afternoon, but so far are struggling to become very strong. HRRR indicates they won`t make it too far off the high terrain this evening. Thanks to the front, the streak of heat advisories should come to an end. Dewpoints behind the front have increased into the upper 40s and 50s behind the front and this moisture, though perhaps not as rich, should make it across much of western NM tonight. The moisture will mix out on Saturday across far west central and northwest NM, but elsewhere, will set the stage for a much more active thunderstorm day. Areas between the ContDvd and the central mountain chain look to be favored during the daytime period, with a few strong or severe storms possible. Steering flow may take the storms across the plains Saturday night. Stormy weather will continue into Sunday and Monday. Both days look quite active with the potential for strong to severe storms. Fortunately though, the cloud cover and precipitation will keep it cooler, especially across the plains. Below normal temperatures are expected for areas along and east of the RGV. Still warm across the west, but only 3 to 7 degrees above normal, as opposed to 8 to 14 like the last few days. Stronger westerlies look to return Tuesday and Wednesday across northern NM with a corresponding dry slot moving across the area. This dry air should mix down and subsequently start to limit thunderstorm chances, first across the north, and with time across the south. 34 && .FIRE WEATHER... The backdoor front raced south and west across the eastern plains and seeped into the Rio Grande Valley overnight and this morning. The low level moisture has mixed out of the RGV for the most part this afternoon, but the east/southeast gap winds will return later this afternoon and will be roaring after 6pm in ABQ. Gusts up to 50 and maybe 55 mph between 7pm and 3am through and below the canyons, especially Tijeras and Bear Canyons. Despite the sharp increase in low level moisture convection will be pretty limited this evening and overnight, pretty much confined to the east slopes of the central mountains and eastern highlands, and across Chaves County. RH recoveries will be be much better tonight, fair to good in the west and excellent in the east. The front will reach the Continental Divide early Saturday morning and probably spill west to the AZ border. This will produce an active weekend with widespread showers and thunderstorms and mostly below normal high temperatures. Mixing heights will lower and vent rates will crater in the east this weekend but not so much in the west. Pretty much status quo for Monday then a drying and warming trend still looks to take place for the rest of next week, with less coverage of storms Tuesday and Wednesday, and dry Thursday and Friday. A couple of back door cold fronts next weekend could lead to a return of more moisture and cooler temperatures. CHJ && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following zones... NMZ505>509-519-520. Wind Advisory until 2 AM MDT Saturday for the following zones... NMZ519. && $$ 34
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1042 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid air mass will continue into tonight ahead of a cold front, along with occasional showers and thunderstorms, some of which could produce locally heavy rainfall. Saturday will see a drying trend behind a cold frontal passage. Seasonable temperatures return on Sunday, with perhaps a few passing showers or a thunderstorm over mainly northern portions of the forecast area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 1042 PM EDT...A cold front continues to slowly move eastward from the eastern Great Lakes and southeast Ontario into western and northern NY this evening. It has taken time, but shower and isolated thunderstorm coverage has begun to increase across the forecast area, especially the eastern Catskills, Adirondacks, and Lake George Region. The convection that formed across eastern PA and NJ weakened and missed most of the forecast area early this evening, but some showers are popping up over the mid-Hudson Valley. The latest SPC RAP Mesoanalysis continues to show MLCAPE/SBCAPEs of 500 J/kg or greater south and east of the Capital Region. PWATs have risen into the 1.8-2.0+ inch range. The 00Z KALY sounding has a PWAT of 1.91" and KOKX 2.04". Heavy rain looks to be the bigger threat the rest of the night, as the right entrance region of an H250 jet streak moves over portions of the forecast area. We tempered the area of the Marginal Risk down in the HWO from the Capital Region south, but the weak lapse rates aloft with the waning instability should suppress any severe threat. Most the forecast area has had limited rainfall, but the showers will be capable of at least 0.50"/hr hourly rates. The 3-km HRRR has continued to show heavy rain over the region, but has been off with the placement of the heavy rain the past several runs. Areas of urban/poor drainage flooding are still possible, but unless a heavier band moves north the threat for an isolated flash flood has begun to diminish, though locations south of the Capital Region into the mid-Hudson Valley into NW CT could get a quick inch or two through daybreak with the front moving through. We have retooled the pops considerably with this update and have kept chance or likely pops in with the front moving through 06Z-12Z. It will remain warm and humid, with lows mainly in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Dewpts will remain in the 60s to lower 70s until the front moves through from northwest to southeast between 06Z-12Z. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Saturday, the aforementioned strong shortwave will be crossing through the region during the morning hours. Rain and/or showers will likely persist well into the mid morning hours from the Albany/Saratoga/Lake George region and points south and east. Some locally heavy rain will be possible, especially from the mid Hudson Valley northeast into NW CT and possibly the southern Berkshires. The rain should finally moves S/E of the region by early afternoon, with clearing expected. However, another upper level impulse could trigger isolated showers to develop later in the afternoon, especially across the eastern Catskills. It will become quite breezy by Saturday afternoon, with wind gusts possibly reaching 25-30 mph. Afternoon highs should reach the mid 70s to around 80, except 60s to lower 70s across some higher elevations of the southern Adirondacks and southern VT, with some lower/mid 80s possible across portions of the mid Hudson Valley where afternoon sunshine and a downsloping flow may enhance warming. Saturday night, generally clear to partly cloudy and cooler, with lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Sunday, a strong upper level disturbance is expected to approach in the afternoon. It appears that the best forcing and associated shallow instability will be mainly across northern areas, north of I-90. Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop by afternoon in these areas. With strong winds anomalously cold air aloft, some gusty winds and small hail could occur in any deeper convective elements. Highs should mainly reach 75-80 in valley areas, with 60s to lower 70s across higher terrain. Sunday night, any evening isolated/scattered convection should decrease in the evening hours, although could persist across the southern Adirondacks well into the night which will be in closer proximity to the main upper level forcing. Otherwise, it should be cool, with lows mainly in the 50s. Monday-Monday night, another fast moving disturbance may trigger isolated to scattered showers/storms Monday afternoon/evening. Again, with fairly strong winds and cold air aloft, some small hail/gusty winds could occur with any deeper convective elements, despite fairly isolated/scattered coverage. Highs should reach the 60s and 70s, with lows mainly in the 50s, except for some 40s across portions of the southern Adirondacks/southern VT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The extended period begins with a shortwave trough from the Corn Belt states digging eastward into the Northeast. For the morning hours, included slight chance POPS for the lower half of the CWA and chance POPs for the upper half due to southwest flow aloft and PVA. Increased POPS for the afternoon as guidance is in agreement that the trough axis passes through during this time. While daytime highs will be about 5 - 10 degrees below normal only in the upper 60s/low 70s, included thunderstorm potential due to cool pool aloft, daytime heating that could lead to some instability (200 - 800 J/kg modeled CAPE) and impressive upper level dynamics (100-110knots 300mb jet over New England). The trough should exit from west to east Tuesday night with cool Canadian air filtering into the region behind it. In fact, as skies clear overnight and winds stay light, radiational cooling should allow overnight lows Tuesday night to tumble into the low 50s for the majority of the CWA and even into the 40s in the Adirondacks (again about 5 - 10 degrees below normal). Ridging tries to build in from the southwest on Wednesday as high pressure noses in from the Tennessee Valley but the high`s center should stay well to our south as strong westerly winds within zonal flow aloft quickly return over the Northeast. Either way, we should stay mainly dry on Wednesday with highs warming back into the mid upper 70s. The next system looks to be in the Great Lakes/southern Canadian Thursday/Friday with its associated warm front potentially reaching our region. Given this is nearly a week away, it`s no surprise models differ on timing but the Euro and GFS both suggest the warm front could stall somewhere in our northern CWA, presenting us with multiple forecast challenges. Thus did not differ much from the Super Blend for this period. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front will slowly approach from the west tonight with showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of it with MVFR/IFR conditions for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. The front will move south and east of the region Saturday morning with an improvement to VFR conditions, as a drier air mass builds in. Showers and thunderstorms will increase across eastern NY and western New England between 00Z-04Z from the south/southwest to the north/northeast. The best chance of a thunderstorm will be for KPOU/KPSF and a TEMPO group was used to highlight this potential. Less instability is further north and thunderstorms have been left out of the KALB/KGFL TAFS. Showers will become widespread before midnight, and continue until 12Z-15Z from KALB north and west, and then diminish in the wake of the front for KPSF/KPOU between 15Z-18Z. Cigs/vsbys will lower to MVFR/IFR conditions in the showers/isolated thunderstorms overnight. The best chance of sustained IFR cigs/vsbys will be for KPOU/KPSF between 07Z-15Z with possibly some brief LIFR cigs at KPSF. A return to VFR conditions is expected by the late morning into the afternoon from northwest to southeast for the terminals. Few-scattered cumulus and/or sct-bkn cirrus may linger in the afternoon, especially south and east of KALB. The winds will be from the south to southwest at 5-10 kts tonight with stronger winds possible with any thunderstorms. The winds will shift to west to northwest between 11Z-14Z at 7-12 kts, and increase to 10-15 kts by the late morning and early afternoon with some gusts in the 20-25 kt range especially at KALB/KPSF. Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... Wind gusts of 25-30 mph possible Saturday afternoon... Warm and humid weather will continue into tonight, along with periodic showers and thunderstorms, some of which could produce locally heavy rainfall. Saturday will see a drying trend behind a cold frontal passage. Seasonable temperatures return on Sunday, with perhaps a few passing showers or a thunderstorm over mainly northern portions of the forecast area. RH values are expected to rise to 90-100 percent tonight, then fall to 40-50 percent Saturday afternoon. South to southwest winds this evening of 5-15 mph should shift into the west toward daybreak at similar speeds. On Saturday, winds will become west to northwest at 10-20 mph with some gusts of 25-30 mph possible. Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near any thunderstorms. && .HYDROLOGY... Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread later tonight as a frontal system gradually moves across the area. It will become more humid, so there is the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Some urban/poor drainage flooding and isolated flash flooding will be possible. Basin average rainfall forecast to be around a half to three quarters of an inch, but locally higher amounts will occur in thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours may linger into Saturday morning from the Capital Region and points south and east. Mainly dry weather then expected for Saturday afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Sunday into Monday. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .EQUIPMENT... KGFL airport observations are coming in and we will continue to monitor this trend. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/Wasula NEAR TERM...KL/Wasula SHORT TERM...KL/Thompson LONG TERM...Speciale AVIATION...Wasula FIRE WEATHER...KL/Thompson HYDROLOGY...KL/Thompson EQUIPMENT...WFO ALY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1041 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure extending into the forecast area from the Atlantic will weaken tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. The slow moving front will be in the area Saturday through Monday. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front. Unseasonable drier weather expected by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Showers and thunderstorms struggled to develop this afternoon with most of the activity along the coast and a few showers making the eastern Midlands. Cold front continues marching toward the forecast area...currently stretched from northwestern GA through central AL. Expect clouds to increase overnight as the front nears the area and pwat values surge to over 2 inches around daybreak. With the clouds overnight lows will remain on the warm side with most locations in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A cold front will sag southward through central South Carolina and east central Georgia on Saturday. PW values in excess of two inches and 850mb winds speeds 20-30 knots parallel to the frontal boundary should lead to localized flash flooding, especially along and south of I-20. WPC has that area in a Slight Risk for flooding. The frontal boundary pushes to the coast during Saturday Night into Sunday. There should be sufficient residual PW behind the front for scattered diurnal convection, especially south and east of Columbia. Much drier and cooler air filters into the region Sunday Night into Monday with highs only in the lower to mid 80s and dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s. There may be some convection in the far south related to the sea breeze front. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... An unseasonably cool and dry airmass will dominate through much of next week with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Some moisture and warmer temperatures will return on Thursday and Friday as the surface high moves into the Atlantic Ocean. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High confidence for VFR conditions through at least 06Z. Isolated convection possible overnight given weakly unstable airmass. Probability too low to include in TAFs at this time. Southerly winds will be near 10 knots overnight so fog not an issue. HRRR guidance and Lamp suggest low threat for kept VFR overnight. Still anticipate an increase in clouds with bases above 3000 feet during the early morning hours. Could see scattered showers develop at DNL/AGS by daybreak. More widespread convection expected to affect the TAF sites by early afternoon ahead of a slow moving cold front. Strong gusty winds possible with storms in addition to cig/vsby restrictions. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Convection and associated restrictions will be possible Saturday night through Sunday ahead of a cold front. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1154 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The combination of an approaching frontal system and the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy will funnel a plume of deep tropical moisture bringing a steady rain to southern Pennsylvania tonight. Occasional lighter showers are expected across the northwest half of the state through the first half of tonight. The cold front will push east across the region during the morning Saturday, followed by drier and cooler air with comfortable humidity that will last through much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Showers are becoming more numerous once again as the leading edge of the deep plume of tropical moisture begins to drift across southwestern and south-central PA. Moderate surface and ML instability persists across the Lower Susq Valley this evening, and a few brief, strong TSRA should race quickly ENE across that region within the strongly sheared llvl environment. Temps are still in the mid to upper 70s across the Lower and Middle Susq Valley, while reading across the Central, Northern and Western mtns are in the mid 60s to low 70s. Analysis shows PWATs exceeding 2" (2-4 sigma) in a wide plume from the Louisiana Gulf Coast up into central PA, and moisture transport vectors indicate a continued advection of this tropical airmass into our region. After a few to several more tenths of an inch of rainfall across the Central and Nrn Mtns, with up to an additional 0.50-1.00 inch over the southern tier counties of PA, there could be some minor flooding problems across the Laurels and southern tier counties. However, large scale outflow boundary(s) (seen on satellite animation and regional 88D mosaic) were driving the stronger/heavier rain producing convection to the south of the state tonight. With the steadiest and heaviest tropical rains (and embedded taller convection) impacting the SW counties of the state attm, and the Cfront just making its way inland of Lake Erie`s SE shore, will maintain high pops throughout the first half of tonight. The most vulnerable area for heavy to possibly excessive rain amounts, it looks to be the Laurels where instability will combine with terrain bringing enhanced lift causing localized heavier amounts. As a result we will continue the Flash Flood Watch through 09Z Sat for our SWRN 4 counties. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Conditions will improve rapidly Saturday morning as the deep moisture speeds eastward. NHC expects whatever is left of Cindy to be on the MD coast by 8AM so the best of the rain will be over with drier air sweeping in behind the departing low and cold front. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Models have trended toward much better agreement with the evolution of the seasonably strong large scale upper trough over the Eastern U.S. A couple of shortwave impulses reflecting weak surface fronts or troughs will provide a limited/mainly diurnal opportunity for widely scattered showers/isolated low- topped thunderstorms Sunday-Tuesday. However, much of the this period will be pleasant and dry with below normal PW supporting low humidity and below normal temperatures relative to late June climatology. The trough is fcst to lift out and leave a more zonal pattern by the middle of the week, followed by a resurgence of the Southeast U.S. upper ridge. Models and ensembles show the ridge breaking down in the west as a trough shifts east across the Rockies into the Plains. Southerly flow increasing ahead of its attendant frontal system should result in an upward/warmer trend in temperatures accompanied by low level moisture/humidity. Expect max/min temps to get back to seasonal levels around midweek and likely reaching above normal levels by next Friday. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Wide range of flying conditions continue to prevail across Central Pennsylvania this evening /04z/. Much better than previously forecast, with VFR conditions existing at most TAF locations, with the exception being KBFD. One last surge of rain and embedded convection will make a run at southern tier and southeastern counties before rapidly winding down after 08z/09z time frame. HRRR would lead us to believe that last of any significant rain will be exiting eastern portions of Central Pennsylvania around 10z. Moist low levels and upward flow will likely bring or keep western airfields under low ceiling restrictions until the 14z time frame, but elsewhere, conditions could be VFR by 10z- 12z. With rain moving off quickly Saturday morning, a brisk west- northwest wind and a quick return to VFR conditions is anticipated. .OUTLOOK... Sat...Scattered restrictions in AM showers...otherwise becoming VFR. Sun...Mainly VFR. Mon-Tue...Mainly VFR, but with a chance of SHRA/TSRA. Wed...VFR. && .EQUIPMENT... KCCX radar will be offline for approximately 4 days starting Saturday, June 24th for technicians to install the first of 4 major service-life extension upgrades. The work on the radar has been scheduled to minimize potential impacts to operations and will be delayed if hazardous weather is forecast. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ024-025-033- 034. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte/Lambert NEAR TERM...La Corte/Lambert SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Jung EQUIPMENT...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
937 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 937 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 Showers continue to percolate over northeast Minnesota, east of U.S. Highway 53. Another batch of showers was found in northwest Wisconsin along the St. Croix River valley. Showers were also occurring over western Lake Superior and trying to move inland. This activity is in response to an upper level short wave moving overhead. Made some pop adjustments due to this activity. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 An upper-level low will dive southeastward from southern Manitoba tonight across the Northland. An associated mid-level shortwave trough will accompany this upper-level low, and brush just over our southwestern counties Saturday morning. The bulk of the positive vorticity advection will stay to the south and west with this wave. However, chances of precipitation will be highest over the International Border region due to a stronger corridor of isentropic upglide as the mid-level trough passes to the south. Mid-level winds will be westerly towards the mid-level trough, which should ride upward over the isobaric surfaces, causing this isentropic lift. Analysis of the RAP model also indicates a corridor of 950-800 mb layer FGEN along this band of lift. By Saturday afternoon, showers and some thunderstorms will expand as the atmosphere becomes more unstable. Values of MUCAPE vary quite a bit between the guidance, so confidence in chances of thunderstorms will be low, but cannot rule them out entirely. Will maintain slight chances of thunderstorms through Saturday afternoon for most of the region. Severe weather is not expected, but the strongest storms could be capable of occasional cloud-to-ground lightning and small hail as 500 mb level temperatures drop into the 20 to 25 degree below zero range. Low temperatures tonight will once again be cool as we remain in this northwesterly, cyclonic flow, as lows approach the upper 40s and lower 50s across the area, which are just slightly cooler than seasonal normal. Same story for Saturday with the high temperatures, as highs remain cooler than normal, with values ranging from the upper 50s across the Iron Range, and into the lower to mid 60s over the south. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 A couple more shortwaves will impact the region Saturday night into Sunday night in northwest flow aloft then a brief dry period will occur before chances for showers and storms return mid through late next week. A chance for showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into Saturday evening then another shortwave will dive south into northern Minnesota late Saturday night. The showers may diminish for a time Saturday night but will then increase again Saturday night into Sunday with the wave. The best chance for rain will be on Sunday and we have showers likely over parts of northeast Minnesota into northern Wisconsin. A few thunderstorms will also be possible. Temperatures will remain cool with highs Sunday from the upper fifties to middle sixties. A western ridge will slowly move east Sunday through Monday and bring a dry period starting Monday and continuing into Tuesday. The upper ridge will be over the region Tuesday with a southerly low level flow developing. High Monday will be warmer and be from the upper sixties to around seventy, then warm into the seventies on Tuesday for most areas. An area of low pressure will bring the chance for showers and storms to the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. There are some timing and track differences between the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian but they all have the low affecting the Northland. Increasing moisture/temperature along with stronger lift from this system may lead to strong or severe storms Tuesday night into Wednesday evening. Differences among the models start to amplify mid into late in the week. The GFS develops a very strong low Thursday into Friday and is slow moving it through with it lingering into Saturday night. The Canadian and ECMWF are in better agreement with a weaker wave aloft and therefore surface low. The models have all been struggling during this time period and each has shown considerable differences from run to run. We have periodic chances for showers/storms Thursday/Friday for now. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 Diurnally driven showers and VFR cu field covers the terminals at the start of the forecast. Expect the showers to end around sunset. Cu field will flatten and expand into a widespread stratus field shortly thereafter with MVFR cigs. Gusty surface winds will also diminish by sunset. An improvement in cigs to VFR is forecast around 16Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 50 61 49 61 / 30 30 30 60 INL 49 60 48 61 / 40 60 50 60 BRD 48 61 49 64 / 0 50 20 20 HYR 51 64 48 62 / 40 50 20 50 ASX 51 63 49 63 / 50 30 20 60 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ UPDATE...GSF SHORT TERM...JTS LONG TERM...Melde AVIATION...GSF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
457 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 239 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017 Mostly sunny skies are in place across the forecast area this afternoon along with a milder airmass. This milder airmass is resulting in cooler temperatures district wide. Currently at Grand Junction Regional Airport it is 89 degrees which is 8 degrees cooler than it was 24 hours ago. On average temperatures are running 5 to 10 degrees cooler around the area than what was observed 24 hours ago. As previously stated mostly sunny skies are being reported across the area. However, GOES-16 visible satellite imagery continues to show the Brian Head fire burning near Cedar City Utah. Smoke from this fire is headed east. HRRR smoke dispersal modeling does show smoke from this fire pushing into southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado this evening. Therefore, have added smoke into the forecast for these geographic areas into the early morning hours. Otherwise, mostly clear conditions and dry weather are anticipated through at least Saturday night. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 239 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017 The current satellite water vapor image is showing a ridge of high pressure positioned along the California coast with a low pressure system diving south from Saskatchewan into North Dakota. The 1200Z ECMWF and 1800Z GFS20 have initialized well with these synoptic scale weather features and remain in good agreement through at least next Wednesday. Both of these forecast models indicate that the ridge of high pressure currently positioned along the California coast will slide east over intermountain west this weekend resulting in increasing temperatures into the first half of the work week. Temperatures will decrease a few degrees on Wednesday as the ridge flattens. Model agreement does break down mid-week, but both models do show a broad trough of low pressure working its way across the western states the second half of the work week resulting in cooler temperatures and potentially some showers and thunderstorms across northern portions of the CWA. Confidence is low on these showers and thunderstorms therefore have not introduced them into the forecast package yet. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 457 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017 Dry northwest flow will keep clouds and showers at bay across the region through the next 24 hours. Smoke from the Brian Head fire in southwest Utah could bring a thin haze to KDRO tonight. Otherwise, look for VFR conditions with no CIGS at TAF sites in eastern Utah and western Colorado tonight and tomorrow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 239 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017 Beginning on Saturday a warming trend will be in place across the fire district through the middle of next week. The ridge of high pressure responsible for this warming trend will begin to flatten on Wednesday of next week promoting cooler temperatures and an off chance of afternoon convection. Forecast confidence is low so have not introduced convection into the forecast. Otherwise, northwesterly winds are anticipated to increase on Saturday across fire weather zone 207 (southwestern Colorado). Although, for a brief period of time winds and RH will approach critical fire weather thresholds a Fire Weather has not been issued for the area. This is mainly due to the brief period of time in which these conditions are expected to be met and the limited size of the geographical area expected to be impacted by these conditions. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Larry LONG TERM...Larry AVIATION...NL FIRE WEATHER...Larry
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1054 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 LATEST UPDATE... Marine .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 Colder than normal temperatures can be expected this weekend through early next week, with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall will not be excessive. && .UPDATE... Issued at 850 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 I added a 20 to 30 pct chance of showers to area near and west of US-131 for this evening as the shortwave currently crossing central Wisconsin moves over Lake Michigan. A few showers have developed ahead of the shortwave but there is a lot of dry air at lower levels for these showers to overcome. I am thinking they will die off as they move inland this evening. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 330 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 Trough aloft and series of vorticity maxima/shortwaves sliding through the northwest flow will bring periods of cloudiness and scattered showers over the weekend. Best coverage of convection, and the best time for a few tstms, should generally be in the afternoon and evening hours when the diurnal contribution/instability is highest. Also,the lake shadow should tend to focus things inland from lake Michigan. Lowering freezing heights through the weekend may eventually lead to a chance of some small hail in some of the low topped convection, which would be more possible on Sunday than on Saturday. Scattered/intermittent nature of the convection of the weekend should lead to total QPFs of generally no more than a quarter inch, with highest amounts north of I-96. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 330 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 Monday will see cooler than normal weather with diurnal enhancement of showers and a few thunderstorms as upper level troughing brings steep lapse rates. No severe weather is expected although the storms could bring small hail during the afternoon as freezing levels are unusually low. The trough axis moves east by Tuesday with shortwave ridging returning Wednesday along with warming temperatures. We will also see moisture return in southwest flow with chances for rain by Wednesday afternoon. Surface low center tracks north of Lower Michigan on Thursday and showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of trailing cold front will persist into Friday as the front sags south of Lower Michigan and stalls across the Ohio Valley. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 727 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 Expect VFR conditions to prevail through Saturday night. That said, there are several short waves rotating around the upper low that will move across SW Lower Michigan both tonight and Saturday. For tonight skies will be nearly clear for most areas but for GRR and MKG there may be mid clouds through most of the night (shown by the HRRR and NAM PCT CLOUD forecast). Winds will become lighter overnight so it would not be impossible for a little fog toward morning but I feel there will be enough mixing to mitigate that. Also during the day time hours of Saturday the air will be unstable but with west winds only the TAF sites near I-69 have a significant threat for convention. I limited the VCTS to those locations. Even then if anything does develop it will be brief. && .MARINE... Issued at 1054 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 Given how cold the air coming in is relative to the Lake Michigan surface water temperatures, it seems more than reasonable to believe 3 to 5 foot waves are expected Saturday into Sunday near and south of Muskegon. So I issued both a SCA and beach hazard statement from Saturday morning till Sunday evening. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 Major flooding is expected along the Chippewa River in Isabella County and sharp rises are also occurring along the Muskegon basin and will continue the next couple days as the crest moves down the river. From 3 to 5 inches of rain fell last night combined with earlier heavy rains. The good news is that no heavy rain is expected through the middle of next week which will allow those areas that are flooding to recover. The next chance for significant rain will be Thursday of next week. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Saturday through Sunday evening for MIZ056-064-071. LM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ844>848. && $$ UPDATE...WDM SYNOPSIS...Meade SHORT TERM...Meade LONG TERM...Ostuno AVIATION...WDM HYDROLOGY...Ostuno MARINE...WDM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
920 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .DISCUSSION... A cold front was located from near Texarkana to just south of Hobbes,NM at 7:00 PM. Storms were developing along and ahead of the front over southern AR. Water vapor showed an upper low over the southern Gulf of Mexico. An elongated moisture axis was present west and northwest of this low over the central Gulf while a dry area was further west over the Upper and Middle Texas coastal waters. The 00Z NAM12 was pushing the storms over AK southward toward SE Texas overnight tonight. However, the model showed a weakening trend in the storms with very little coverage by the time the storms reached into the northern portions of the forecast area. Better chances will occur after mid morning as the front moves in from the north and the deeper layer moisture over the Gulf arrives from the southeast. The latest models pretty much agree with the current forecast. Did tweaked the rain chances mainly to take out the isolated rain chances over the north and add isolated rain chances over the offshore coastal waters for the rest of this evening. 40 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/ AVIATION.../00Z TAF/ Surface analysis has cold front boundary from Arkansas along the Red River to west Texas. This has allowed for a line of storms to form in Arkansas. Warm sector airmass over much of Texas south of the boundary remains relatively capped except for west Texas. Tonight we need to monitor the evolution of the convection organizing in Arkansas. The 12Z WRF-ARW and TX Tech WRF-ARW both show this line of storms pushing south and even southwest towards KCLL to KUTS by 06-09Z Saturday. The KCLL/KUTS/KCXO TAFs may need to be adjusted for this evolution but will wait and see for now. Outflow may play a role in tomorrow`s convection for the area but for now these models do not show much redevelopment of storms until the afternoon like most other models. The TX Tech WRF does start storms around 16-17Z along the coast so may need to adjust the VCTS used in the TAFS for 18Z. HRRR is less robust with the outflow and any storms redeveloping but still need to watch its trends. Otherwise TAFs will be close to the previous 18Z update with MVFR ceilings overnight and mention of showers starting in the morning hours turning to VCTS. Overpeck PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/ DISCUSSION... A hot afternoon is well underway for Southeast Texas with 3 PM CDT temperatures in the low to mid 90s inland and heat index values ranging from 98 to 107. Visible satellite imagery shows a scattered to broken stratocumulus deck developing around 4500 feet and spreading south within an area of isentropic lift on the 310 K surface. RAP guidance shows this area of lift gradually translating east over the next few hours (likely as the remnants of Cindy pull farther away from the region), allowing at least some of these clouds to translate towards the south and east with it. For those areas lucky to get some shade from these clouds, temperatures may quickly drop 2-3 degrees and provide some relief from the heat. Otherwise, cannot rule out a stray shower along the coast or across the far extreme eastern counties through the remainder of the day but this would be the exception and not the rule. Not much cooling is expected overnight with lows only falling into the mid 70s to low 80s, but rain chances will increase across the region on Saturday and Sunday as Southeast Texas remains situated in a relative upper level weakness between two ridges. Speed convergence along the coast Saturday will result in scattered morning showers, with the northern counties seeing a thunderstorm complex along an approaching (weak) cold front also during the morning hours. Regional radar mosaic already shows storms beginning to develop along this cold front across portions of the Low Rolling Plains and along the Red River, with additional upscale growth into a thunderstorm complex expected through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours as the front pushes south towards the region. The cold front looks to make a run for the Interstate 10 corridor through the remainder of the morning hours Saturday, stalling near or north of it as a sea breeze pushes inland during the late morning and afternoon hours. Daytime heating and the collision of both of these boundaries is expected to result in the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, with greatest coverage centering wherever the boundaries collide (likely near Interstate 10). Convection should wane with loss of heating by Saturday evening. Another round of morning showers are expected on Sunday, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms again developing with daytime heating and likely focusing along wherever the remnant frontal boundary (or outflow boundaries from Saturday`s convection) is. The front won`t have much of an effect on temperatures but increased clouds on Saturday and Sunday will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than today with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Similar to what the previous forecast noted, storm motions will be very slow both days (around 5 knots Saturday, 10 knots Sunday) and this, combined with precipitable water values 1.8-2 inches, will result in the threat for locally heavy rainfall and the potential for some localized flood issues as thunderstorms have the potential to remain nearly stationary before collapsing. SREF plumes show forecast rain totals generally in the 1-2 inch range during this time, but would not be surprised to see some isolated 2-3 inch totals occur given the aforementioned environmental conditions. Will also have to keep an eye on a gusty wind threat as well on Saturday. Relative humidity progs show drier air evident over the northwest Gulf on afternoon water vapor imagery working its way into the region from the south/southwest. This drier air would help enhance evaporational cooling, accelerating downdrafts and creating the potential for gusty winds in stronger convection on Saturday. The region remains under this relative weakness in the upper flow through the middle of the upcoming week, with mainly daytime shower and thunderstorm chances inland through mid-week. Expect these chances to gradually decrease early to mid next week as 500 MB heights increase and atmospheric moisture content drops a bit. These increasing mid-level heights and decreasing rain chances will also result in gradually warming temperatures with highs increasing to near or slightly above normal (low to mid 90s) by the end of the next work week. Huffman MARINE... Winds are slowly diminishing today, and seas should also come down with them on a bit of a delay. Though winds may not quite be at the SCEC threshold, the lag in waves should justify keeping it in place into tonight. Going into the weekend and early next week, light to moderate flow is expected, generally onshore. An approaching front may back winds slightly to more easterly from Sunday, but will still be generally onshore. Some stronger winds may be possible mid to late week. Tides also remain elevated, and astronomical high tide at around two feet at Galveston are not aiding matters. Another chance at coastal flooding in vulnerable areas around high tide early tomorrow morning can`t be ruled out. Will hold off on another Coastal Flood Advisory for now to gauge tidal behavior through low tide and into the upswing towards high tide. Luchs && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 77 90 73 87 71 / 20 40 50 60 30 Houston (IAH) 78 90 75 87 73 / 20 70 40 70 40 Galveston (GLS) 81 88 80 87 78 / 30 40 20 50 50 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Discussion...40 Aviation/Marine...39
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1022 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 A Cold front over Central Indiana will push east and exit the state tonight. Rain will end late this afternoon and evening as the front passes. High pressure centered over the western plains states will then build across the Indiana and the Great Lakes...providing cooler and drier NW flow. This will result in dry and pleasant weather this weekend...with below normal temperatures and comfortable humidities. Dry weather and below normal temperatures will be expected for much of next week due to the strong high pressure system to the west. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 645 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 Planning on canceling the Flash Flood Watch early as the heavy rain threat has pushed out of the forecast area. Lingering shower activity over the southeast zones will probably end around 240100Z. Previous discussion follows. Surface analysis shows a Cold front across NW Indiana stretching to East Central Illinois to SE Missouri. Radar trends show a band of showers ahead of the front across central Indiana. Some of the showers continue to produce very heavy rain with the very moist tropical air mass in place. GFS and NAM continue to suggest a SE progression of the surface cold front which will effectively push the stream of moisture SE and out of Central Indiana. Rapid refresh suggests that by 00Z...only the far southeastern parts of the forecast area will still be impacted by rain. HRRR progression after that suggests the forecast area should be rain free by 03Z. Time heights show a complete loss of forcing and strong drying within the column after 00Z with subsidence. Significant air mass change is also expected as dew points in the lower 60s and upper seen in NRN Illinois...are set to arrive in the wake of the front. Thus will trend toward a dry forecast tonight...especially across the NW where Rain will have ended. May need to keep some pops for the first 1-2 hours after 00Z across the SE where rain may not have exited yet. Models suggest strong cold air advection tonight and will trend lows at or below the expected forecast builder blend. && .SHORT TERM /Saturday through Monday/... Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 GFS and NAM suggest a large broad trough in place across the Great lakes and Ohio valley through Monday. Several weak...poorly organized disturbances look to pass within the flow...but best dynamics look to remain well north of Central Indiana. Time height sections continue to show a dry column through Monday. Forecast soundings through Monday also show a dry column...but attainable convective temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70. However on both Saturday and Sunday afternoons...forecast soundings show a good mid level inversion that should just result in some flat topped CU. Furthermore CAPE appears really limited with values less than 300 J/KG. Thus with dew points in the 50s and high in the 70s expected for this period...comfortable...pleasant and not humid weather is expected. Thus will trend toward Partly cloudy days and Mostly clear nights. Forecast soundings hint at slightly more CAPE on Monday afternoon and less of a mid level cap. Forecast blender may try to insert pops here...however...confidence remains very low at this point given the NW flow expected and a lack of deep moisture. && .LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/... Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Next week will generally begin a bit cooler than normal and with a spotty shower possible as an upper low exits the Great Lakes. Temperatures will warm gradually, returning to near normal during the week as upper level flow becomes more zonal and then weakly anticyclonic by week`s end. A frontal zone will move toward the region during the latter portion of the week, returning thunderstorm chances to the area. Blended initialization handled things well and only minor tweaks were necessary. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 240300Z KIND TAF Update/... Issued at 1022 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 No significant changes made to the forecast at this time. Previous discussion follows. Lingering shower activity expected to pass off to the southeast of the terminals by issuance time based on radar loop. Satellite shows rapid clearing of the lower cloud cover over northwestern Indiana, so expected most of the cloud cover below 050 to scatter out during the early evening hours. Some concern about fog development later tonight given today`s rainfall, but with drier air advecting in, confidence is low at this time. Surface winds 330-350 degrees at 9-12 kts early this evening will diminish to 5-8 kts after dark and gradually back to 290-310 degrees by sunrise Saturday. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Puma NEAR TERM...Puma/JAS SHORT TERM...Puma LONG TERM...NIELD AVIATION...JAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1024 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .DISCUSSION... Extensive outflow boundary and associated convection continues to push south across north LA, with additional isolated activity occurring farther south over East/South Central LA. HRRR runs have continued to show the activity to the north progressing south into the forecast area after midnight, though the intensity is shown to wane over most of the area. The notable exception is where it intercepts the presumably still active convection over S Central LA. Have adjusted PoP/Wx grids based on latest radar trends and the HRRR. No other changes to the forecast required this evening. 13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 700 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/ AVIATION...With the exception of a few showers over lower Acadiana, convection has temporarily ended over the area. Did introduce some activity returning after midnight. This associated with a southward propagating MCS now over central Arkansas, with the latest HRRR suggesting could maintain itself into our area. Otherwise, VFR is expected to prevail. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be increasing during max heating Saturday as tropical moisture remains plentiful. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/ DISCUSSION... Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon have continued to gradually shift to the east this afternoon with the low level convergence axis shifting off to the east. Also water levels continue to remain elevated along, especially in the coastal lakes and bays this afternoon. The PETS Guidance continues to show elevated water levels gradually subsiding. With a pretty large low tide beginning shortly will allow the advisory to expire at 6 PM. The guidance still indicates potential for 1-1.5 feet of inundation tomorrow morning with high tide, but will let the evening shift or the mid shift get another run of the guidance before extending it. After tomorrow morning that should be the last advisory potential coastal flooding for this event. Front still forecast to sag into the region Saturday and gradually wash out near the coast. This will cause the the chance for showers and thunderstorms to increase for the weekend. Despite rainfall forecasts being reduced slightly this forecast cycle. The high PWAT airmass in the wake of Cindy will aid in high rainfall rates, so some locations could get some hefty amounts and thus a small risk of exceeding flash flood thresholds. Rain chances will remain elevated through Monday before getting back to more climatological values. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 75 86 71 85 / 50 60 30 50 LCH 78 88 74 86 / 30 60 40 70 LFT 76 86 74 85 / 50 70 40 70 BPT 77 88 74 85 / 20 50 30 60 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
408 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SHORT TERM... Southwesterly flow in place across the area in response to the broad circulation of remnant Cindy currently moving into the Ohio Valley. The frontal zone is being drawn southward with an extensive coverage of convection reaching central Louisiana. This convection will likely continue into the evening and quite possibly overnight. The HRRR runs this afternoon is advocating an outflow QLCS advancing southward after midnight, but other models are focused mainly along the frontal zone itself. Will maintain 40-50 percent in the overnight, then carry into Saturday. The rain trends will have to be closely monitored for echo training as efficient tropical airmass becomes involved with the frontal zone that will probably be moving on the impetus of the convection. Frontal zone stalls out for continued chances of rain Sunday. Temperatures will vary widely depending on rain coverage but generally in the upper 80s for highs though one or two locations may attain 90 either day. .LONG TERM... Models show enough troughing aloft to possibly push the front into the north gulf for a very brief dry period Monday before moist begins to surge northward Tuesday. Bermuda ridge regime becomes established to bring the area under a more typical summer sea breeze pattern for the latter part of the forecast period. 24/RR && .AVIATION... A very moist and unstable pattern will continue to bring widespread showers and storms into the area. Convection will continue to increase from nw to se...peaking between 2100 and 00z this evening bringing conditions down from MVFR to IFR during the heavier storms. Convection expected to gradually diminish after 02Z. Lower ceilings expected to drop down below 2000 feet between 06 and 12z. Convection will begin to refire after 15z on Saturday and continue to become more widespread throughout the late morning into the afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Winds and seas are finally relaxing from the affects of Cindy with more favorable conditions this weekend as pressure gradient relaxes. Frontal zone not expected to push much into the gulf before stalling and drawn northward early next week, thereby onsetting a steady state onshore flow pattern for the rest of the week. && .DECISION SUPPORT... DSS code: Blue. Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: Monitoring Hydro/Convective trends Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend Green = No weather impacts that require action. Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high visibility event. Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory issuances; radar support. Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes. Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 73 84 71 83 / 50 80 50 60 BTR 75 87 73 84 / 40 80 50 60 ASD 75 88 74 84 / 40 50 40 60 MSY 76 88 75 84 / 40 50 30 60 GPT 76 86 75 83 / 40 40 40 60 PQL 74 87 73 84 / 20 50 50 50 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LAZ040- 050-058-060>062-064-066>070-072. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ532- 534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for MSZ080>082. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ 24/RR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
616 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .AVIATION... Winds behind front continue to remain gusty, though thunderstorm chances look to be dwindling quickly for all sites. MVFR cigs expected to develop overnight. KLBB could possibly dip to IFR briefly at times. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/ DISCUSSION... Convective chances are somewhat unclear from this afternoon through the next several days. Convection has developed along an advancing cold frontal boundary oriented east-west from the southern South Plains through the southern Rolling Plains. Temperatures in excess of 100 degrees with surface dew points around 50 will support high bases and therefore a wind threat. This front will bring markedly stronger northeasterly winds and these winds will continue overnight. This cold front will bring a very welcome break to the oppressive heat we have experienced that past week or so. Surface ridging will build in overnight behind this front with decreasing winds by mid morning. A subtle short wave aloft may bring thunderstorms from southwestern Oklahoma to the Rolling Plains tonight. However, this convective activity is far from certain. It is now supported by the HRRR and is supported by the TTU WRF to an extent. Elevated instability above the frontal boundary will not be in short supply within strong moist southeasterly winds giving some confidence in this possible overnight convection. Extensive low level stratus casts doubt on convective chances for Saturday especially during the daytime hours. Moist isentropic upglide will keep elevated instability around the area which may be enough to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms. Models are again mixed on how Saturday will play out but widespread severe convection is not anticipated. Northwest flow storms will be more difficult to come by on Saturday evening but will have stronger chances on Sunday evening. Low level flow will be more out of the southeast rather than east with increased instability across the area into eastern New Mexico. Another day with possible northwest flow storms will occur on Monday with a continued weak upper level ridge to the west. This upper ridge will be suppressed for several days this weekend into early next week as an upper level system moves into British Columbia. Tuesday and beyond bring more uncertainty to the forecast as the upper level ridge begins to strengthen again leading to increasing heights. Models are differing on the strength of the system moving out of British Columbia which will affect the strength of the upper ridge. However, this may only mean a difference locally of either 90 or 100 degrees by late next week. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 99/99/74
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
940 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Cold front now entering northwest sections of the mid state. Light northwest flow evident to the north of the boundary with dewpoints slowly dropping into the 60s. light isol/scattered shower activity still ongoing southeast of the boundary. Latest HRRR data shows decreasing shower activity from west to east and we continue through the overnight. Will maintain a chance of showers over most of the area until 06z. At that time...pops will decrease markedly across much of the northwestern half of the midstate. Otw, temps appear to be on track. Will see lows of 65 to 70 degrees by daybreak. Update out shortly. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF DISCUSSION. CKV/BNA/MQY/CSV....Main concern for terminals will be impacts of shwrs/sct tstms along with sfc gust to 30kts at times as broad area of shwrs/sct tstms associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Cindy continues to move across the mid state region thru 24/00Z. Although technically not defined as LLWS, gusts 40 to 50kts within 1 kft of sfc probable. Sfc frontal passage 24/06Z W to 24/12Z E should usher any remaining shwrs east of mid state region, with VFR/SKC conditions across entire mid state by 24/12Z. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......21 AVIATION........Shamburger
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1007 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front sweeping through early Saturday will return comfortable humidity levels by the weekend. Below normal temperatures greet us early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Tweaked forecast to reflect current radar trends. The heaviest rain rates appear to be over with. We will be conducing a damage survey for Greene and Fayette counties Saturday and likely into West Virginia. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Dry and less humid air will be welcome news for many this weekend as dewpoints drop into the 50s. Northwest winds behind the baroclinic zone will clear out the sky during the morning, however moisture will be on the increase as a fast moving shortwave trough crosses during the evening hours. The column is fairly dry, so no measurable QPF is foreseen Saturday. Dry weather continues for the second half of the weekend despite less sunshine. Yet another passing short wave will bring clouds and given its stronger than the one Saturday isolated showers are possible north of the I-76 corridor in the late afternoon / early evening hours Sunday. Mid level heights continue to fall as we kick off a new work week. Most of the energy will reside along the lakes, so precip chances are small over northern WV and western MD when compared to northwest PA. Any shower will be brief. The bigger story is the spring like feel as daytime high temps do not leave the 60s Monday! This will be almost 15 degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Highlights: - Cool start - warm end temp wise - Unsettled weather returns Friday - No heat waves or high water threat Mid level heights increase with a ridge building into the eastern United States. This will bring temps back to normal levels by Thursday and above normal by a week from now. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR weather will yield to MVFR and IFR cigs this evening in wake of the cold front. Drier air will work into the area toward 12Z bringing terminals back to VFR where they will stay for the balance of the forecast. Winds will be gusty from the WSW tomorrow afternoon with peak gusts around 20 kts. .OUTLOOK... Upper trough may bring occasional restrictions Sun and Mon in afternoon showers/storms. && .HYDROLOGY... The flash flood watch remains on track. The axis of highest QPF has shifted a little north to far southern PA where 24 hour amounts in excess of three inches are possible. HRRR shows a several hour period of moderate to heavy rainfall thankfully it is across a region that was not impacted by the nearly 4-6" of rain that fell in parts of Indiana county last evening. Warm rain process and PRE setup remain in place. PWATS are pushing two inches while warm cloud depths are in excess of 13kft. The low level jet continues to pump moisture from Cindy into our region. All of these point to enhanced convergence ahead of the front. River forecasts have been tweaked upward across Mon and headwaters of Ohio river. We still do not have any forecast points going to flood, but Pittsburgh, Elizabeth, and Charleroi are predicted to reach action stage. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ001. OH...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ039>041- 048>050-057>059-068-069. PA...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ013-014- 020>023-029-031-073>076. WV...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ001>004-012- 021-509>514. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
916 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front, energized by the remnants of what was Tropical Storm Cindy, will progress east across the forecast area tonight. Showers and embedded thunderstorms are anticipated into the overnight, a few of which may produce gusty winds and heavy downpours. The cold front will slowly push southeastward into eastern Virginia and North Carolina on Saturday, followed by a cooler and much drier air mass for the rest of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 855 PM EDT Friday... Leading edge of weakening convection to the west slowly heading east toward the western counties attm in association with the Cindy remnant racing through NE Kentucky and into West Va. Once the low passes should see shra/tsra get a bit better push off to the southeast with perhaps low topped bands impacting the mountains into the early morning hours. However latest regional radar loops show a weaker area of showers within the line heading toward southwest VA likely due to strong lift just north and a passing storm cluster to the west. This may tend to fill in and intensify given the passage of the main core of 850 mb winds across the western sections in the next few hours and low level instability off evening soundings but iffy. Other concern is with the heavy rain potential mainly northwest sections as the persistent band of heavy rain now northwest of RLX drops southeast once the remnant low passes. Some solutions including the HRRR do bring between 1 and 2 inches to portions of Greenbrier county between 03-09Z while others weaken the heavier rainfall once better support exits. Given uncertainty and isolated nature to possible heavy rain, wont hoist a watch and handle with short term products if needed at this point. May also see some of the showers push east of the mountains after midnight but in a much weaker state. Thus main update was with timing of higher pops northwest and to bump up QPF mainly Greenbrier/Summers into Bath county. Otherwise expecting a breezy and very muggy overnight with higher gusts possible in showers despite lack of thunder. Lows 60s west to low/mid 70s east. Appears exodus of showers will occur a bit faster later tonight with decent drying developing by early Sat. Since this supported by most solutions, opted to lower pops by daybreak Sat and remove most chances during the morning for now. Previous discussion as of 339 PM EDT Friday... While currently on the quiet side, heading into a more active evening with several potential issues to contend with, owing to the approaching cold front which has merged with Cindy`s remnants. Through the rest of the afternoon.... we continue to carefully monitor the potential for isolated thunderstorms. Visible satellite reveals some cloud breaks taking place from the central/southern Blue Ridge eastward. LAPS-based CAPE values are on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg, and we do have strong low-level winds already in place (40-50 kts are common per area VWPs). The strong low-level winds contributing to deep layer shear values near 40 kts per SPC mesoanalysis. If any isolated storms do develop, as reflected in recent runs of the HRRR and the 3-km NAM, they may produce localized gusty winds as they move northeastward off the Blue Ridge. Otherwise, looking at generally quiet conditions into the early evening. For tonight... weather turns increasingly more active, as we will watch ongoing storms across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys progress eastward across the forecast area. Present indication from a consensus of high-resolution guidance is to bring an evolving line of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms into our western WV/VA/NC doorstep by around 01z, progressing eastward to the Blue Ridge foothills toward midnight. While it is a diurnally unfavorable period of time for strong convection, wind shear values both through the lowest 0-3km and deep layer owing to Cindy`s wind field only increase. Though it`s difficult to fully trust higher-resolution guidance later in the model cycle, through midnight several members do depict some concerning radar structures as storms move into far western counties. I suspect that we`ll have a high-shear/low-CAPE environment in place tonight, even well after dark. In that environment, even heavy showers could offer the potential to produce gusty winds which may topple dead or shallow-rooted trees. Based on 0-1 km shear values progged to be in the 40 to 50 kt neighborhood, this also poses a concern for isolated embedded spin-ups in stronger convective elements in the line. Given those reasons, to raise awareness of the potential threat I`ve added enhanced wording for gusty winds in the zone forecast through midnight at least, roughly from the Blue Ridge foothills westward into southeast WV. After midnight, heavier showers and storms seem to lose structure as they drift into the Piedmont areas, so I`ve kept the gusty wind wording to central and western counties away from the VA/NC Piedmont areas. Another concern in this humid, tropical air mass will be heavy rainfall potential. Even showers should be efficient rainfall producers. Potential for hourly rain rates to be enhanced by convective elements as well. I`ve maintained heavy rainfall wording in the zones for the tonight period. Fortunately, rainfall we did receive last night was not substantial. And the fast-moving nature to tonight`s rain/thunderstorms will probably keep flooding more localized. Guidance QPF values continue to generally paint some consensus in depicting the highest forecast values northwest of our forecast area, and official forecast ranged from a half to one inch west of I-81, a quarter to third of an inch to the Blue Ridge escarpment, tapering to a couple tenths or less east. For those reasons, confidence was too low on an issuance of a flash flood watch with this forecast package. For more on hydro, see the Hydrology section below. Cold front will have advanced east of the Blue Ridge toward Saturday morning. However, the 12z NAM, ECMWF and GFS suggest that the front may make more slow southeastward progress into the NC Piedmont and foothills areas. While much drier, more refreshing air filters into the northwestern two-thirds of the forecast area on Saturday, I`ve kept lower Chance level PoPs through the day for showers and thunderstorms for the southeastern third. With the front roughly bisecting the forecast area, lows tonight range from the lower to middle 60s west of the Blue Ridge but will be a muggy lower to mid 70s from the Roanoke Valley eastward. Highs tomorrow should top out in the mid 70s to lower to middle 80s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 339 PM EDT Friday... By 00z Sunday (8 pm Saturday Night), most of the medium range models forecast the position of the cold front across the far southeast portion of our forecast area. This boundary interacting with lingering instability will result in keeping a slight chance for storms from South Boston to Yanceyville early Saturday evening. Dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the short term period as a deep northwest-west flow prevails across our region through Monday. In the upper levels, a broad upper trof will gradually deepen across the Great Lakes into the northern U.S., which will allow dew points to drop through the period resulting in cooler temperatures Monday morning compared to Sunday morning. Leaned toward the cooler guidance values or lows Monday morning. Highs will also be cooler Monday as 1000-850mb thicknesses continue to fall. For late June, humidity levels will be quite comfortable. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 339 PM EDT Friday... The long range models are in good agreement with the overall upper air pattern during this period with an anomalously deep upper trof over the eastern U.S. early in this period, with 500mb heights 2-3 standard deviations below normal,transitioning to a zonal flow by mid week, with ridging building by the end of the week. The 12Z GFS is still fastest with the eastward progression of the upper trof Tuesday night into Wednesday, but this has little impact on the tranquil weather expected during this time. A weak frontal boundary moving through early Tuesday morning may generate some spotty showers in the mountains, but forecast RAOBS indicate there will be very little moisture available. Otherwise, PWAT values will remain below average until Thursday night/Friday so expect a prolonged period of dry weather. By late in the week...a deep southwest flow developing on the west side of an upper ridge and ahead of an approaching upper trof in the upper mid west will increase moisture and provide the opportunity for weak upper level disturbances to pass over our area. This will result in increase chances for scattered thunderstorms during this period. As for temperatures, forecast 850mb temps from the GEFS are 2-3 standard deviations below average, which will lead to some cool mornings Tuesday and Wednesday. Adjusted low temperatures down a couple of degrees below guidance during this period. Temperatures will moderate late in the week. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 650 PM EDT Friday... Overall active aviation forecast period in the first 12 hrs. VFR conditions should prevail into early this evening across the mountains and out east through about midnight. Areas of mechanical turbulence along the spine of the Blue Ridge are likely to continue into this evening as the low level jet ramps up to around 50 kts ahead of convection to the west. Surface winds should also remain gusty at times with KBLF perhaps gusting to 30 kts at times. Deterioration to sub-VFR flight conditions will occur from west to east after sunset with most of the showers either passing east or dissipating during the early morning hours of Saturday. This ahead of a cold front along with the remnants of Cindy that are likely to produce at least a broken band of moderate to heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms. Models have continued to slow down the eastward progress of this line while showing a weaker scenario with best energy passing by to the northwest. Thus have only included a prevailing period for showers at KBLF/KLWB with continued VCSH/VCTS and TEMPO elsewhere although thunder chances look rather small at this point. Appears some low clouds may develop across the mountains as the showers exit with potential IFR/LIFR mainly around KBLF late. Strong wind gusts to 35 kts may also accompany any of the heavier showers. For Saturday, the front should make slow but steady progress southward, with steadily improvement to VFR conditions along with a westerly wind at 8-15 kts with potential gusts to around 25 kts during Saturday afternoon. Extended Aviation Discussion... VFR conditions to then prevail Saturday night through Sunday night. Potential for radiation fog and related visibility restrictions Sunday night. A cold front passing on Monday may produce VFR/possible MVFR conditions and breezy northwest winds behind it. VFR then lasts through Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 911 PM EDT Friday... Rainfall forecast/models/ensemble river forecasts suggests greater threat for flooding will remain northwest of our forecast area into tonight. Average rainfall amounts of .50 to 2 inches expected from the NC mountains to Mountain empire of SW VA to southeast WV with 2 to 4 inches further west into the KY/TN/OH corridor. Not seeing enough signals to warrant a watch, but given efficient rainfall rates, any convective elements or training will increase the threat especially across the Greenbrier Valley of West Virginia into the overnight where the heaviest rainfall is expected. Timing of heavy rain will be in a 3 to 6 hour window from late this evening into early Saturday morning with drier air quickly returning Saturday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AL/JH NEAR TERM...AL/JH SHORT TERM...PH LONG TERM...PH AVIATION...AL/AMS/JH HYDROLOGY...AL/AMS
Watches/Warnings/Advisories section of this Area Forecast Discussion
for detail. Otherwise, very hot daytime temperatures to continue
this weekend, then daytime temperatures will lower closer to seasonal normals Wednesday into next Friday. && .AVIATION...Valid thru 25/00Z. Isolated -TSRA near mountains northeast of KDUG ending early this evening, then isolated -TSRA east of KTUS Saturday afternoon. Brief wind gusts to 40 kts may occur. Otherwise, VFR conditions into Saturday afternoon. Surface wind wly/nwly 10-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts diminishing this evening and becoming less than 10 kts by 24/06Z. Surface wind Saturday afternoon swly to nwly 5-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms east of Tucson Saturday afternoon and evening, then scattered thunderstorms generally from Tucson eastward and southward Sunday into Tuesday. Expect decreasing coverage of thunderstorms Wednesday, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly east to south of Tucson. Dry conditions are forecast to prevail across much of the area next Thursday and Friday. Otherwise, gusty east to southeast winds will likely occur Saturday night into Sunday morning. The favored locales will be the Upper Gila River Valley including Safford, and near the Tucson metro area. 20-foot winds will then exhibit diurnal trends with speeds mainly less than 15 mph, although some stronger afternoon gusts to occur due to daytime heating. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for AZZ510-512. Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Saturday for AZZ508. Heat Advisory until 7 PM MST Saturday for AZZ511-513. Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Sunday for AZZ501>507-509-515. Heat Advisory until 7 PM MST Sunday for AZZ514. && $$ Francis Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at