Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/23/17

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1043 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A more humid air mass will return tonight into Friday as a warm front moves through the region, along with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, some of which may produce locally heavy rainfall. The showers and thunderstorms should continue Friday night, before gradually tapering off Saturday as a cold front moves through and south of the region. Another upper level disturbance could trigger a passing shower or thunderstorm Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1043 PM EDT...A few light rain showers associated with the warm advection/isentropic lift ahead of a warm front over west- central NY extending southeast over the lower Hudson Valley and Long Island continues to lift slowly north/northeast tonight. The 00Z KALY sounding continues to be dry in the low- levels with mid-level moisture between 7-12 kft AGL. The PWAT has increased from 0.70" at 12Z to 1.32". We slowed down the trend for more widespread showers and sct thunderstorms into locations west/northwest of the Hudson River Valley until around midnight or shortly thereafter. The latest NAM12 and the 3-km NAM and HRRR have better shower and thunderstorm coverage ahead of the warm front over the southern Adirondacks between 05Z-09Z with Showalter indices of 0 to -3C on the NAM and MUCAPE close to 1000 J/kg. The warm advection and H1000-850 theta-e advection will increase overnight with sfc dewpts rising into the 60s and PWATS to 1.4-1.7 inches. Some brief bursts of heavy rainfall will be possible. Lower chance pops south and east of the Capital Region are likely tonight, as the better synoptic forcing is north and west. Lows tonight will be in the 60s to close to 70F in the mid-Hudson Valley and Capital District. Friday could be an active day as combination of high moisture content, approaching pre-frontal and main frontal zones and positive tilted trough could allow for some training cells to evolve. Question is overall instability and latest model trends are less with the QPF. Yet if we are able to see breaks in the overcast then greater instability can be realized hence the marginal risk continued by SPC. The main threat will be from heavy rainfall as PWATs are at or above 2" but through the day not widespread enough for headlines at this time. We will continue to watch and collaborate along with future upstream trends and guidance. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Friday night, as upper level jet energy, and the low/mid level thermal gradient slowly approach from the west, chances for showers and thunderstorms should continue well through the night. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, as PWAT`s remain close to 2 inches, especially for areas near, and to the south and east of Albany. It will remain warm and humid, with low temperatures only falling into the mid/upper 60s. Saturday, still could be a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms from the Capital Region and points south and east in the morning, as the cold front slowly settles southeast, while some of the remnants, or moisture associated with Cindy rides just south/east of the frontal boundary. Locally heavy downpours will remain possible, especially across portions of NW CT, the mid Hudson Valley, and southern Berkshires. The main band of showers/thunderstorms should move south/east of the region by afternoon. However, lingering upper level energy and a possible weak reinforcing cold front may trigger an additional shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon, especially across the eastern Catskills into the mid Hudson Valley. It should gradually become less humid in the afternoon, with late day high temperatures ranging from the lower/mid 70s across higher elevations of the Adirondacks, to the lower/mid 80s across valley areas within the mid Hudson Valley. Saturday night, generally fair conditions, after any isolated evening showers dissipate. It should be cooler, with low temperatures mainly in the 50s. Sunday-Sunday night, a couple of strong yet compact upper level impulses look to track across the region during Sunday. Strong dynamical forcing associated with these impulses could lead to at least isolated-scattered showers/thunderstorms, although the areas which may be affected overall could remain limited since these systems are fairly compact. Would not rule out some gusty winds/hail with any thunderstorms given fairly low wet bulb zero levels and strong winds aloft, even though the tops of any convection may remain relatively shallow/low topped. High temperatures should reach the mid/upper 70s in valleys, with mainly 60s across higher terrain. After any isolated convection dissipates Sunday evening, expect clear to partly cloudy skies to remain, with temperatures cooling into the lower/mid 50s for many areas, with perhaps some 40s across portions of the Adirondacks and higher terrain across western New England. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The extended forecast will be dominated by a mean longwave mid and upper level trough over the eastern CONUS into the middle of the week. Cool and unsettled weather is expected into Wednesday for early summer. Some ridging may briefly build into the the Northeast by Thursday. Mon-Mon Night...A deepening and amplifying H500 long-wave trough will be setting up over the Great Lakes Region, OH Valley into the Northeast. A series of short-wave troughs will be impacting the forecast area migrating through the mid and upper level trough. Heights will be falling across the region with a cold front initially descending southward from the St Lawrence River Valley, but will likely lift north late in the day ahead of the short-wave trough. The 12Z GFS continues to show modest amounts of instability. A chance of showers with a slight chc of thunderstorms was kept in the forecast during the day. Highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s in most of the valley areas with upper 50s to upper 60s over the higher terrain in the cool cyclonic flow. The showers will become isolated to scattered at night with the loss of the diurnal heating with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the region, as H850 temps will be about 1 to 2 standard deviations below normal according the latest 12Z GEFS. Tue-Tue Night...The latest GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM have a stronger short- wave embedded in the long-wave trough impacting the region on TUE. At the sfc, a wave of low pressure will be lifting north of the region towards the St Lawrence River Valley with a cold front moving through in the late morning into the afternoon. The cyclonic vorticity advection with some thermal advection will generate enough synoptic lift for showers likely especially from the Capital Region north, with high chc pops to the south. The amount of heating and sfc destabilization is still uncertain, but there could be enough instability with SBCAPEs in the 500-1000 J/kg for at least a slight chc of thunderstorms in afternoon. High temps will be similar to MON with 60s to mid 70s across the region which is about 5-10 degrees below normal. Wed-Thu...Much of eastern NY and western New England will still be under the influence of mid and upper level cyclonic flow with the trough axis attempting to move downstream. With the cold pool aloft and weak impulses rotating around the upper low, then some instability showers are possible across most of the region. A little more sunshine before the pop-up showers will allow for highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s over the higher terrain, and mid and upper 70s in the valley locations. There are some signs of ridging building in from the south and west Wed night-THU with heights rising across the region based on the 12Z EC and the WPC guidance. The GFS wants to the close the upper low over eastern New England with with N/NW flow isolated-sct showers over the higher terrain. We trended WED night dry, and based on a blended model approach we kept a slight chc of showers in the valley areas in the grids during the day, and a very low chc over the southern Adirondacks, southern Greens, northern Catskills, and the western Mohawk Valley. Again, this day is trending drier if the 12Z EC does not close the upper low off like the latest 12Z GFS. Overall, temps look below normal in the long term with pcpn normal to above normal. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A warm front will approach eastern NY and western New England tonight with some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. It will move through tomorrow morning, as the region will get into a warm sector. The cold front will approach from the west late tomorrow afternoon into the evening with widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms. VFR conditions will continue early tonight with mid and high clouds over the terminals. Expect cigs to continue to lower to 5-8 kft AGL with the best chance of showers or thunderstorm close to KGFL. We placed some VCSH groups for KGFL/KALB/KPSF in the 08Z-09Z time frame. The increase of low-level moisture may allow for some vsbys to get in the 4-6SM range with the best chance of MVFR vsbys near KPOU. PROB30 groups were used for a chance of thunderstorms between 11-15Z at KGFL/KPSF and 14-18Z at KALB/KPOU. It is not clear cut, but entering the warm sector there will be a chance of thunderstorms with MVFR vsbys and possibly cigs for a brief time. After 18Z, VFR conditions will return with a better chance of showers and thunderstorms close to 00Z/FRI, but our confidence was not high enough to include in the TAFs at this time in terms of chances of showers and thunderstorms. The south to southwest winds at 4-7 kts will become light and variable tonight at KGFL/KPOU, but remain steady at KALB/KPSF. The winds will increase from the south at 10-15 kts with some gusts in the 20-25 kt range at KALB/KPSF in the late morning into the afternoon. Stronger wind gusts may occur with any thunderstorms. Outlook... Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warmer and more humid conditions will return tonight into Friday, along with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, some of which may produce locally heavy rainfall. The showers and thunderstorms should continue Friday night, before gradually tapering off Saturday as a cold front moves through and south of the region. Another upper level disturbance could trigger a passing shower or thunderstorm Sunday. Relative humidity values are expected to increase to between 80 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Friday will be around 55 to 70 percent. Winds will shift into the south tonight at 5-10 mph. Winds on Friday will be south to southwest and increase to around 10 to 15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph possible. Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near any thunderstorms. && .HYDROLOGY... A few showers will be possible well west of Albany early this evening. More widespread showers and thunderstorms will start to move in tonight, and especially on Friday as a frontal system gradually moves across the area. It will become more humid, so there is the potential for locally heavy rainfall Friday into Friday evening. Some urban/poor drainage flooding and isolated flash flooding will be possible with thunderstorms. Basin average rainfall forecast to be around a half to three quarters of an inch, with locally higher amounts where persistent thunderstorms occur. Showers and thunderstorm with locally heavy downpours may linger into Saturday morning from the Capital Region and points south and east. Mainly dry weather then expected for Saturday afternoon with just a few showers around, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Sunday into Monday. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .EQUIPMENT... KGFL airport observation has been intermittently missing again as technicians continue to troubleshoot. We will continue to monitor and update this statement as needed. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/BGM/Wasula NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula SHORT TERM...KL/JPV LONG TERM...Wasula AVIATION...Wasula FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV EQUIPMENT...WFO ALY
forecast, please read the previous forecast discussion below.

Previous forecast discussion... Tonight...An increasingly moist southwest flow will develop overnight with PWATs rising to around 1.50". Surface low pressure in the western Great Lakes will push a warm front through the region although the forcing with this feature is fairly weak. Best moisture and lift continues to be in the far northern forecast area where we will keep high chance pops later tonight with slight chance across the central and southern forecast area. Due to mid level instability will keep the mention of thunder. It will be mild and increasingly muggy as dew points rise and lows range from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Friday/Friday night...A deep southwest flow of increasing moisture from Tropical Depression Cindy will bring PWATs to around 2 inches by afternoon. Models have slowed the progress of the surface cold front with passage now expected Friday evening. Model soundings show tall/skinny CAPE and warm cloud layer around 11k-12k feet. These are indications of potentially very heavy rainfall with any convection. Due to a really juicy atmosphere with plenty of clouds the amount of destabilzation that occurs tomorrow is a big question mark. Low level shear still looks fairly good to support severe weather but many elements are lacking. There still is the threat for isolated severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening but more concerning is the heavy rainfall threat. Later shifts may need to issue a flash flood watch if the event looks more certain. Will continue with likely pops from Friday afternoon into Friday evening then lower pops after midnight as this boundary drops through. Highs will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints around 70 making it feel rather muggy. Friday night temperatures cool off in the lower to middle 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Remains of T.S. Cindy will pass just south of the area early Saturday and may bring a few showers to NEPA. Later in the day, surface trof and mid level short wave will drop into the area from the Great Lakes resulting in scattered afternoon showers. Weak surface ridging builds in for Saturday night and Sunday, but yet another mid level wave passes through later in the day some additional showers are possible, especially during the peak heating hours with the cold pool aloft. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Unsettled weather continues into the long term with a persistent upper low over the central Great Lakes creating instability, especially during the afternoon hours. Solution to the problem is still up in the air (pun intended) as the GFS and EURO come to different conclusions on the eventual disposition of the low. The latest GFS develops a slow moving closed low that will linger somewhere in the NY and New England area through and beyond the period. EURO is more progressive and would sweep the low through as a deep but open wave by Wednesday. In any event, it looks as though cool and unsettled weather with mainly afternoon showers will continue through the long term. Temperatures will average below normal, especially during the daylight hours. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The forecast calls for continued VFR conditions into Friday morning, as a high-deck slowly lowers to a mid-deck. Winds will be light overnight. Showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rain, will develop on Friday. As the atmosphere moistens, MVFR ceilings and visibilities will become more prominent. Southwest winds will gust to 20 knots Friday afternoon. Outlook... Friday night...Showers and thunderstorms through Friday evening, with associated restrictions. Saturday - Monday...Mostly VFR, but shower/storm and brief restriction possible. Tuesday...Convection with restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...KAH/RRM SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...DJP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
744 PM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 712 PM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Convection across the area has dramatically underperformed this afternoon into the evening. The primary reasons for weak and poor coverage of the thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening came about just before noon when the convective temperature was reached across the Foothills and adjacent Plains...thunderstorms quickly formed and developed a thick cirrus shield that overspread much of our area. As the storms moved east of I-25 they encountered a robust cap, and storms weakened then dissipated as they moved further east. The cool outflows from the initial storms and thick cirrus limited instability this afternoon and evening. Where the models were predicting 1500+ J/kg MUCAPE, probably more like 500 J/kg were available. Given the convective stability east of the Continental Divide this afternoon that will continue into the overnight hours, updates were made to the forecast...namely eliminating any threat of severe weather and reducing PoPs overall from chance to slight chance or less. After 1 AM tonight the HRRR and ESRL HRRR, and the NAM all show a cold front entering the state from Wyoming and Nebraska. They have been consistent for the past 4-5 hourly runs. Current surface obs across the central high Plains are showing fairly strong N/NE flow, and there is a strong surface high over Montana moving south. GOES-16 WV currently shows a weak short wave trough moving south into Wyoming. Feel these are the features the high res models are latching onto. Fully buying into the northerly frontal surge solution will take a leap of faith given how poorly the high res models handled today`s convective evolution. Additionally, the global models are also overdoing precipitation the updates made to PoPs were to lessen them and synch the PoPs with the timing of the front. Given all this, and assuming the frontal passage occurs as shown in the high res models, there should be an hour or two of light rain showers occurring behind the front along with low clouds and much cooler temperatures. The cool temperatures and cloud cover will continue through Friday, and given how hot it was this week, it will feel quite cool to most of us throughout the day. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 255 PM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Storms continues to spread west to east across the forecast area. With the front now all the way through the area, upslope flow continues to increase. However, the better moisture has been slow to work its way in, so strength of storms are weaker at this point than initially thought. More threat right now is strong outflow winds, with hail threat increasing as the afternoon goes on. A shortwave currently in southern Idaho into central Wyoming is progged to push south tonight, to push additional moisture and the cooler air in with an increase in upslope flow. Will see a continuation of showers and storms likely through midnight, with a possibility of seeing convection for a few hours after midnight with the shortwave. Forecast soundings show lower levels moistening up with stratus expected to push in, however upper levels still remaining unstable. For now will remove mention of thunder after midnight for the high terrain and after 3am over the plains, with stratus spreading across the plains and into the foothills up to about 10kft. This will create areas of fog along the foothills and adjacent plains. High surface pressure will remain over the Great Plains to keep upslope into NE Colorado Friday. Clouds will likely remain over the most of the plains to keep temperatures readings in the 60s, a nice respite from the heat of late. Further west of the divide, temperatures will still be cooler than today, but some instability may allow for isolated weak afternoon thunderstorms. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 255 PM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Cooling trend continues through the weekend with a moist and cool airmass in place on the plains. A cold front will move into NE Colorado Saturday ushering in cooler air. Easterly winds will help to keep moisture pooling into the foothills with clouds persisting through the evening into Saturday afternoon. Model air soundings show increased mid-level subsidence through the weekend. Some light precipitation will be possible but expecting more showers and closer to the foothills vs convection. The convection potential will increase over the higher terrain for Saturday and Sunday as conditions will be warmer and more unstable then on the plains. Brief heavy rain, deadly lightning and small hail with gusty winds will be possible with any convection. Temperatures will continue to be below seasonal normals with highs in the 70s through the weekend. For Monday into mid week the upper level ridge will start to build back into the Great Basin ushering in a warmer airmass for Monday and slowly increasing temperatures through the week. With the warming least for Monday into Tuesday do not expect much in the way of convection due to a stable mid level. A lee side trough will help to increase downsloping and warming temperatures for Monday evening into Tuesday with lows in the 60s and highs on Tuesday reaching back above normals in the low 90s. Chances of convection increase on Wednesday with the possibility of breaking the cap and having some isolated storms in the afternoon on the plains. By Thursday GFS and EC showing a front moving in late Wednesday that could help to destabilize the atmosphere and increase storm chances for Thursday. Will continue to monitor to see how models time the incoming front. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 712 PM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Convective potential has waned this evening and thunderstorms are not expected through the TAF period. Light winds from an easterly direction should occur this evening and into the overnight hours. Between 10 and 11Z, expect a strong northerly push to occur across the three TAF sites, with north winds 15-20kt with higher gusts at DEN, and around 10-15 kt at APA and BJC. Rain showers are possible (20-30% chance) for an hour or so behind the front and have handled this with TEMPO groups. Low stratus development is also a strong possibility ahead of the front in the upslope flow, and especially after frontal passage when CIGs may drop to 010. In precipitation CIGS may briefly drop to 006 or 008. At this time VIS should stay up around 5 SM, but in precipitation it could briefly drop to 3 SM. It looks like CIGS will lift with drier air and the late June sun Friday morning, such that by 16/17Z and beyond VFR conditions should prevail. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Schlatter SHORT TERM...Kriederman LONG TERM...Bowen AVIATION...Schlatter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
636 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 An upper level low was over the Manitoba Lakes region this afternoon and is forecast to move southeast through northwest Ontario toward northeast Minnesota overnight. The low will open up as it progresses southeast through the day Friday. The rain over northwest Wisconsin will diminish through the evening as the frontal boundary sags south and FGEN decreases. More showers are possible over portions of northern Minnesota late this afternoon into the overnight period. The HRRR has been consistent for the last several runs developing an area of showers over western Minnesota then moving them east and north through the evening. Area radars have yet to show any appreciable echoes there but visible satellite imagery does show a growing cumulus field. We will have a chance for showers into the evening over parts of northeast Minnesota then over far northern Minnesota through the overnight period as the low moves southeast. Cold air advection will continue overnight and lows are expected from the upper forties to lower fifties. A chance for showers and perhaps an afternoon thunderstorm will continue Friday across much of the Northland due to a weak shortwave and enough instability present from the colder air moving in. Highs will be below normal, ranging from the lower to middle sixties along the International Border to the mid to upper sixties over northwest Wisconsin. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 The extended forecast continues to feature weekend chances of showers and thunderstorms, along with some below seasonal temperatures Saturday through Monday. The extended period begins with a cut-off upper-level low advancing southeast towards the Northland. An associated mid-level shortwave trough, with a concentrated maxima of positive vorticity advection will translate just across our southwest. The models have come into better agreement with the position of this mid-level trough compared to yesterday`s corresponding runs. Despite the main trough diving south of the area, a corridor of better mid-level isentropic lift and 850-700 mb Q-vector convergence is progged on the northern periphery of the trough. Chances of thunderstorms will mainly be in the afternoon and early evening since that will be when the better instability will be in place. MLCAPE values of up to 500 J/kg will be possible when the low-level lapse rates steepen, thanks to low- level diabatic heating. No severe weather is expected as the instability and deep layer shear just looks too low to support any substantial threat. A lingering secondary shortwave will continue chances of showers into Sunday, with another round of thunderstorms possible for Sunday afternoon. The best chances of storms will be over northwest Wisconsin, where the better instability should be in place. Again, no severe weather is expected. Due to this trough pattern and persistent northwesterly flow over the region, cooler air advection will take control. This will lower temperatures mainly from Saturday through Monday, with highs in the lower to mid 60s. Temperatures will start to increase Monday and Tuesday as winds turn more southerly. A mid-level ridge will develop Monday morning into early Tuesday over the Great Plains region, which should bring mostly dry and warmer conditions. This should bring some light winds and mostly clear skies, so it could be a pretty chilly morning on Monday, perhaps even better radiational cooling for Tuesday morning. Did lower the temperatures for Tuesday below the consensus blends a bit to better correspond to this radiative cooling, with lows into the lower to mid 40s both mornings. More showers will ramp up again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a region of upper-level divergence develops out of the Intermountain West. The GFS is showing some stronger lift in the mid- levels as well, so some good forcing could be in place for some showers and thunderstorms through the day Wednesday. It`s possible that this will bring the best chance of strong thunderstorms, as instability looks to be much higher, but it`s still too far to really nail down a solution, especially when the magnitude and placement of the axis of instability varies between the GFS/CMC/ECMWF models. Showers and storms could continue into Thursday as another potent shortwave moves in closely behind the Wednesday morning system. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 633 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 A weak disturbance will move across the Northland this evening, generating some isolated showers and possibly even a thunderstorm. The best chance will be in the northern TAF sites. Another front will drop southeastward out of Canada late tonight and on Friday. This front will bring cooler and more moist air, which will result in areas of MVFR CIG, especially north. KDLH and KHYR should generally remain VFR throughout the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 52 66 49 63 / 10 20 10 40 INL 50 62 48 60 / 30 40 40 50 BRD 53 65 47 64 / 10 10 0 30 HYR 52 69 49 64 / 20 20 10 40 ASX 53 69 50 64 / 10 20 10 40 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Melde LONG TERM...JTS AVIATION...DAP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
942 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .UPDATE... It has been an active evening as cluster of severe thunderstorms lifted northward through a good portion of the southern Detroit metro area. Initial cell appeared to get mid to upper level support by gravity wave forcing to the south of Toledo. The thunderstorm quickly latched onto the main 850-700mb gradient of tropical moisture and provided the perturbation to drive additional thunderstorm activity northward along a mature outflow boundary. Overall, hi-resolution models have done a poor job resolving this initial thunderstorm activity within the broad anticyclonic ridging and confidence remains lower than average. With that stated the signal points to activity migrating northward throughout the remainder of the evening as the main equivalent potential temperature gradient lifts northward and merges with the synoptic scale cold front now over sections of northern Lower Michigan. Uncertainty remains high with specifics, but expectations are for shower and thunderstorm activity to become more organized over the northern cwa, north of I 69 primarily between 02-09Z tonight. Activity should then transition south again, south of the I 69 corridor between 09-14Z Friday morning. Severe threat appears to be waning as model soundings show loss of diurnal heating significantly compromising lower level lapse rates. One factors in current activity overturning the air mass, and confidence increases that high static stability will exist through a deep layer between 2.0 and 9.0 kft agl. Current SPC RAP based shows just a pocket of MLCAPES of between 1000-1250 J/KG where current thunderstorms reside. Expecting this instability to lessen considerably during the next hour or two to around 500 J/KG for the course of the overnight. Deep layer shear, particularly closer to the front across the north will remain good enough for storm organization so will continue to monitor. However, signs point to the severe threat lowering considerably. The main item to watch for is heavy rain potential with training of elevated thunderstorm activity. Right now it appears best potential for this heavy rainfall will be north of I 69. Inherited grids are in reasonably good shape and little changes are anticipated. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 811 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 AVIATION... Cluster of severe thunderstorm activity lifting northward through Detroit is being forced along the lead gradient of 850-700mb tropical moisture. The thunderstorm activity will continue for the first hour or two at Detroit terminals before lifting northward with time tonight. There is a high amount of uncertainty with how tonight will play out. Hi resolution guidance this afternoon missed completely on this warm sector thunderstorm development within overwhelmingly anticyclonic flow trajectories. The idea right now is that tstorm activity should transition northward to possibly between the I 69 corridor to Tri Cities sometime after 02-03Z this evening. This activity should then continue (expected to be elevated and weaker) throughout much of the night along a slowly sagging cold front. Shower and tstorm potential will then pick up towards daybreak again around the Detroit Metro area before transitioning southward over portions of Ohio by late morning Friday. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for thundestorms early at start of period, low for much of tonight and medium for 09-13Z Friday. * High confidence in ceilings aob 5kft tonight into Friday Morning. PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 353 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 DISCUSSION... Warm and humid southwest flow will be firmly established over lower Michigan during late afternoon through tonight. Temperatures will come down from highs near 90 and heat index in the mid 90s but it will remain warm and muggy through the night. This will leave convective trends as the main concern beginning with scattered late day/early evening development followed by storms arriving from the Midwest frontal system during the night into Friday morning. Passage of the front through SE Michigan by early to mid Friday afternoon will then bring cooler and less humid air into the region for the weekend. Afternoon satellite imagery and hourly mesoanalysis/surface observations indicate warmer and more humid air moving in through the boundary layer in southwest flow over the region. This is occuring under a relative theta-e minimum that is a result of both warmer air moving in aloft that is not quite as moist and possibly some subsidence trailing morning convective activity. The warmer air is at least temporarily capping off additional shower/storm development through peak heating. There is also observational evidence of deeper moisture moving in from the Ohio valley associated with the northern fringe of TD Cindy. It is this moisture surge that is shown to produce late afternoon/early evening convection over northern OH/IN developing into lower Michigan during the evening. This activity will occur ahead of the convection upstream over the Midwest that is being forced along and ahead of the cold front/outflow combination and which is expected to progress eastward into SE Michigan during the night. Both rounds of storms will share a similar near storm environment. Model derived ML CAPE and shear projections best supported by observations are in the range of 1000-1500 J/kg along with marginal bulk shear around 30 knots. This combination will be capable of some multicell structures with otherwise moderate mid level wind speed that could produce some near severe wind gusts in line with the borderline slight/marginal SPC outlook that covers SE Michigan. Locally heavy rainfall will likely turn out to be the main concern as PW ramps up to near 2 inches overnight. Individual convective cells will be moving quickly enough but there will be a tendency for some training lines that will have localized potential for flooding of prone areas. Numerous to widespread showers/storms that spread into the region overnight will tend to break up as they will be ahead of the surface front and upper level wave toward Friday morning. As this convection continues to dissipate during the morning, there will be another narrow window of opportunity for new development along the cold front before peak heating and before it boundary exits SE Michigan during early to mid afternoon. Passage of the front will then open the door on cooler and less humid air Friday night into Saturday. Some weak instability showers will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening but the large scale pattern does not look very supportive. Neutral southwest flow aloft downstream of the main upper trough and a featureless westerly low level flow might support isolated to scattered coverage of light showers during peak heating. The region will remain in longwave troughing to close out the weekend and into the beginning of next week. This will allow for chances for unsettled weather through this time period before things start to dry out by the middle of the week. Longwave ridging starts to build in on Tuesday as surface high pressure takes control over the Great Lakes region. As far as temperatures are concerned, highs will be noticeably cooler on Sunday and Monday as highs hold around 70 degrees. Temps then rebound back towards the upper 70s though the end of the extended forecast period. MARINE... Warm and moist southerly flow this afternoon, but topping out around 20 knots for the most part. Scattered showers and thunderstorms around late today and this evening, with more solid line of showers and embedded thunderstorms later tonight with cold front, which will pass through the Central Great Lakes tomorrow. Winds will shift to the west-northwest behind the front and remain from that general direction through the weekend with wind speeds under 20 knots. An unseasonably cold airmass this weekend will bring the chance for light showers across most of Lake Huron. HYDROLOGY... An influx of moisture will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms late today and this evening, with more widespread shower and thunder activity with cold front late tonight into early tomorrow morning. All told, localized rainfall amounts may reach an inch or more, especially from around Flint on north into the Saginaw Valley, where storms expected to arrive earlier and are able to utilize the waning daytime instability. Urban and small stream flooding will be possible with the stronger activity. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. Lake Huron...NONE. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && $$ UPDATE.......CB AVIATION.....CB DISCUSSION...BT/SP MARINE.......SF HYDROLOGY....SF You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
931 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move away from the region tonight. Tropical moisture from the remnants of Cindy...and an approaching frontal system will result in showers and thunderstorms Friday into Friday Night. A series of surface troughs or weak cold fronts will cross the area this weekend into early next week bringing us the chance of showers from time to time...especially over central and northern areas. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 926 PM Update: Have made minor changes to the forecast this hour...slowing precipitation arrival just a tad...but boosting cloud cover based on evening satellite imagery. Am watching shower activity moving east near KRME/KUCA along the elevated warm front and expect this to make a run at the area after midnight. forcing waits until well after midnight with best confidence in the north...where PoPs were upped based on latest HRRR simulations which line up well with upstream trends and movement of the warm front. Temperatures nudged up a bit given current observations...increasing cloud cover...and GFS LAMP trends. 552 PM Update: Going forecast in good shape with only minor adjustments needed for temperatures. Expect the evening to remain dry based on upstream radar evolution and recent HRRR simulations with shower and embedded thunder chances arriving from the west after midnight. Previous discussion below... A weak 500 mb ridge moves across the CWA tonight, which should help to keep the evening dry, for the most part. Cannot rule out a shower or sprinkle in the north and west, but this will probably not produce enough to measure if it occurs at all. Clouds will thicken from the west this evening. Very latitudinal stretched trough to our west will bring some WAA across the CWA tonight, with the better chance of showers after midnight and in the nrn and western zones. Some elevated instability as well, so cannot rule out some thunder, but all in all nothing significant overnight, and some places will see nothing at all. Temps will fall this evening, but increasing low level moisture and clouds will likely stall the the temp drop around midnight or so, and lows will range from the mid to upper 50s in the north and east, to the low to mid 60s in southern NH and along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... The big question for Friday is whether any part of the sfc CWA can break into the warm sector and get some sun and heating. The warm front should be exiting to the north in the morning, before secondary low forms on the triple point just N of New England, which would allow some southern zones to break out given decent SW flow. This would destabilize the atmosphere enough to produce TSRA, which would open doors for training of cells, producing very heavy rain, and potential for severe storms developing in the afternoon. Since best dynamics will lag a little behind the warm sector, and its questionable how unstable things get given clouds, will not highlight any severe at this time. Heavy rain, however is a better bet, with very moist air, some of it from the remnants of tropical storm Cindy, will produce PWATS of around 2 inches. So, could still see heavy downpours late in the day into the evening, when the better dynamics aloft move through ahead of the front. Highs are a tough forecast, and dependent on if and when any locations see a decent amount of sun, but they will range from the low to mid to 70s in the mid coast area, where onshore flow will hold for most of the day, to the low to mid 80s in srn NH and the CT vly, where the SW flow will be warm and there will be the chance for some sun. The from looks to move through late Friday night, and will follow the best dynamics as well, so while showers will be possible through the night, the threat for torrential downpours should diminish around and after midnight. It is unlikely to see the front at the sfc, until mixing begins Sat morning, so expect humid conditions to linger with lows in the 60s, and mostly in the mid to upper 60s outside the mountains. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Global models in general agreement over this period. A cold front will be located over the coastal plain early Saturday. This could result in a few early morning showers. As the front pushes offshore expect drier air to move in during Saturday. A couple of mountain showers may develop in a developing NW flow. Coastal areas will see a downsloping wind resulting in dry weather. On Sunday the NW flow will continue. A short wave of vorticity will approach which could produce a few showers...again the best chances will be over northern and mountain areas. This pattern will persist on Monday. Late Monday low pressure will develop along the Mid Atlantic Coast. The most recent runs of the models still track this low offshore but hold back some troffiness over New England which would result in a period of rain or widespread showers for Tuesday. As the low continues to move NE the 500 mb trough sharpens and looks to keep the area unstable with the threat of at least a few showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will start off normal to slightly above normal Saturday but will become normal to slightly below normal Sunday through Thursday. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term... Summary: A warm front will lift north across the region tonight with an increasing chance for showers and a few thunderstorms after midnight. A warm and very moist airmass will then yield an increasing risk for showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon hours on Friday under southerly flow. A cold front arrives from the west Friday night with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. Restrictions: Generally VFR through tonight with some threat for temporary restrictions primarily HIE/LEB after midnight in a shower or embedded thunderstorm. On the day Friday...VFR conditions should dominate all locations through the morning...but by afternoon...expect increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage to result in some occasional MVFR/IFR restrictions...esp at HIE/LEB/AUG. Also...marine layer will likely work into RKD with IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS. Shower/thunderstorm coverage will decrease Friday night...but with moist airmass still in place...expect a good amount of haze and fog...with locally dense fog possible depending on how much rain we realize. Winds: Winds less than 5kts overnight before becoming southerly on Friday and increasing to 10g18kts. Southerly winds continue Friday night but diminish to less than 10kts. LLWS: There is some risk of LLWS in the vicinity of RKD after 18Z Friday with low level jet overriding stable air off the ocean. Thunder: Some risk of an isolated thunderstorm through daybreak Friday for LEB/HIE. Thunder threat will increase all areas for the day Friday...particularly afternoon and evening...but remain greatest at HIE/LEB...with thunder threat diminishing with the loss of daytime heating Friday night. Long Term... Mostly MVFR to VFR conditions south of the mountains Saturday though Monday although brief IFR possible in any showers. MVFR to IFR conditions over the mountains in clouds and scattered showers. A better chance of IFR conditions on Tuesday as more widespread showers/rain is expected. && .MARINE... Short Term...SCA issued for SW winds Fri afternoon into early Saturday morning. Winds will likely peak Sat evening. Long Term... Waves and winds to remain below SCA levels. Visibilities may become reduced in rain on Tuesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical high tides will continue through the weekend with the possibility of nuisance flooding Saturday night at high tide which will occur at 12:05 am Sunday Morning at Portland and 12:16 am at Portsmouth/Fort Point. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Arnott/Cempa SHORT TERM...Cempa LONG TERM...Lulofs AVIATION...Cempa MARINE...Cempa/Lulofs TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
903 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .UPDATE... At 01z, the remnants of Cindy was located over southern Arkansas. A few showers lingered over the extreme eastern zones this evening but these showers look like they are in the process of dissipating. Can`t rule out a few isolated showers over the eastern half of the region, closest to Cindy, so will maintain 20 PoPs. Low level moisture has increased and overnight lows are going to be on the warm side. 00z soundings show 850 temps have warmed at CRP and are near 24 C. The CRP sounding still looks dry although PW values have increased to 1.50 inches. LCH shows a moist profile with an 850 temp of 18 C. Fcst soundings for Friday show 850 temps near 22 C over Houston so max temps look warmer. Low level moisture will make it feel even warmer with HI values between 103 and 110 degrees. Looking ahead to Saturday, a slow moving cold front coupled with PW values near 2.20 inches should be a favorable environment for shra/tsra. The slow movement favors some locally heavy rain over parts of the region. Previous forecast has most of this covered nicely. Have tweaked hourly grids to match obs but otherwise no changes are needed. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/ AVIATION... Radar shows some potential for feeder bands into TD Cindy affecting KIAH, KCXO and KUTS through about 02Z. Chances go down through the mid and late evening. MVFR looks likely to develop between 06Z and 09Z. The ceilings should lift to VFR between 16Z and 18Z on Friday. Also expect winds to pick up as well. The Texas Tech WRF and HRRR both show some potential for isolated showers during the afternoon from KIAH eastward. 40 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/ DISCUSSION... Remnants of Cindy continue moving into far nw LA this afternoon. As Cindy continues to move newd tonight, she will leave an elongated axis of low level convergence and abundant moisture in her wake across southeast TX. Will keep chance to slgt chance PoPs running accordingly across eastern counties tonight with some hint in the short range guidance that we could see showers develop near the coast/bay newd. All in all, we expect conditions to continue improving from west to east with gradual reduction in winds and showers overnight. However, it will remain quite mild with min Temps well in the 70s /lower 80s along the coast/ given the rich tropical moisture still in place. This will help set the stage for a very hot and muggy Friday. While forecast max temps are not out of the ordinary in the upper 80s near the coast to mid 90s inland, combination of tropical dew points will boost heat indicies significantly. HIs will get well into the lower to mid 100s by early afternoon nearly areawide and could approach or briefly exceed advisory conditions for some spots in the afternoon. Fortunately south winds will remain in the 10-15 mph range, especially near the coast, which will help some. Pattern will settle into a very unstable regime with rain chances increasing into the weekend as a cool front moves into the region and stalls. This will keep chance to good chance of showers Sat through Mon. At least the rain chances and clouds will reduce the heat a bit through the weekend, before we settle back into a more typical summer pattern next week. Evans MARINE... Winds in the wake of Cindy are backing through west on their way to southerly. We are entering a relatively lull in the winds, but with the pressure gradient expected to tighten back up, winds back up to around or a little above 20 knots is expected. Because of this, have extended the small craft advisory through the morning. Winds and seas will slowly diminish through the weekend, but periods of moderate onshore winds can be expected into early next week. Tides are still elevated as winds are somewhat slow to come down, but now only in the neighborhood of 9 inches to a foot above normal. Because of this, low water in Upper Galveston Bay is likely not so much a concern. Indeed, the above normal levels may be a continued focus around high tide tomorrow morning, but at this time don`t expect it to be quite high enough to cause significant troubles. Luchs && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 76 95 77 88 73 / 10 10 30 50 30 Houston (IAH) 77 92 78 88 75 / 30 20 30 60 40 Galveston (GLS) 82 87 81 87 79 / 30 20 30 40 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT Friday for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Discussion...43
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
914 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 910 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 The primary concern the rest of the night is the coverage and timing of the storms as the cold front pushes southeast across Illinois. The earlier evening showers have diminished to a few sprinkles east of Champaign, near I-70, and approaching toward Galesburg. Pre-frontal showers are expected to fill after 06z/1am north of I-72. However, storms will be mainly confined to closer to the cold front as it reaches our NW counties by 07z-08z. The front will progress southeast the rest of the night, reaching near I-70 by 13z/8am. A narrow corridor of instability will progress southeast ahead of the front, but with very weak wind shear, no severe storms are expected. SPC removed all Slight Risk from Illinois, and Marginal Risk is only N of Peoria to El Paso. With the very moist boundary layer, very high rainfall rates could occur with any stronger storms. Flooding could develop in areas susceptible to floods. Showers and storms on Friday will become confined to areas mainly east of I-55, and especially along and south of I-70, in closer proximity to the passage of the remnant low from TS Cindy. Updates this evening were mainly to fine tune timing in the PoP/Wx forecast. Minor updates were done to hourly temps/dewpoints, otherwise the forecast database was generally on track. Updated information is already available. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 A warm/moist airmass is in place across central Illinois this afternoon...with 19z/2pm temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the lower 70s. Deep-layer moisture associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy continues to flow northward from the Gulf Coast, allowing isolated showers to develop east of the I-55 corridor. HRRR has been consistently showing these showers becoming more numerous over the next few hours, especially south of I-70. Current mesoanalysis shows SBCAPEs of less than 1000J/kg across the SE KILX CWA, so only isolated thunder is anticipated late this afternoon/evening. Meanwhile further northwest, a cold front extending from Lake Superior southwestward to Nebraska will begin to drop into the area late tonight. Models are in fairly good agreement that a line of thunderstorms will develop within a narrow corridor of favorable instability/shear across Wisconsin/northern Iowa late this afternoon...then will slowly drop southeastward into central Illinois tonight. Consensus keeps this activity northwest of the CWA until after midnight: however, the 12z WRF-ARW is slightly faster and brings storms into the northwest counties shortly before midnight. Have adjusted PoPs to keep low chance going through the evening along/east of I-57 where deep-layer moisture will be most prevalent. Further west, have kept the I-55 corridor dry...and have brought chance PoPs into the Illinois River Valley after 03z. Best rain chances will arrive overnight as the line of storms tracks/spreads southeast. While storms may initially become strong to severe across Iowa, they will be losing daytime instability as they come into the CWA overnight, with MUCAPE vales decreasing to 1500-2000J/kg. Wind shear will be quite weak, so think as instability will the storms. Could potentially see a few non-severe wind gusts across the N/NW between midnight and 4am, but the overall trend will be for the storms to weaken. Cold front will sink southward through central Illinois on Friday, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Have lingered rain chances through the morning, with the convection dropping south of I-70 by late afternoon. High temperatures on Friday will range from the middle to upper 70s across the SE counties where cloud cover and rain will the lower 80s further northwest where sunshine will return during the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Cold front will sink southward into the Ohio River Valley Friday night, allowing a much cooler/drier airmass to settle into the region over the weekend. A series of short-waves dropping out of Canada will carve a significant trough over the Great Lakes. While most of these weak features will remain well to the north, one may come close enough to trigger widely scattered showers across the north Sunday afternoon. Have included slight chance PoPs along/north of a Galesburg to Chenoa line accordingly. As the flow becomes increasingly cyclonic, showers may also be possible across parts of central Illinois Monday afternoon: however, with surface high pressure over the region...have opted to leave them out of the forecast for now. Main story Saturday through Tuesday will be the cool temperatures, with highs remaining in the 70s and overnight lows dropping into the lower to middle 50s. The upper trough will lift northeastward by the middle of next week...replaced by a zonal or perhaps even slightly southwesterly flow aloft. Degree of weak ridging that develops over the Midwest in the wake of the trough remains in question, thus the timing of the next significant rain chance is also somewhat uncertain. The 12z GFS features a stronger ridge and thus a slower eastward progression of the next cold front until next Thursday. Meanwhile, the GEM is quite a bit faster and brings rain into Illinois as early as during the day Wednesday. With the ECMWF/GFS both trending slower, think this is the way to go. As a result, have kept Wednesday dry...with PoPs coming back into the picture Wednesday night into Thursday. With rising upper heights, temperatures will climb back into the 80s by Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Showers have been decreasing early this evening in the warm sector across central Illinois. Steady southerly winds are pumping low level moisture into the area, from the remnants of TS Cindy. However, the coverage of precip from that system should remain SE of the TAF sites until later in the day tomorrow. The initial forcing for showers/storms will come with a cold front later tonight. High resolution guidance still show a consensus that storms will arrive after 06z/1am near PIA, and then progress to the southeast in a line, affecting the remaining TAF sites through 13z/8am Friday morning. A narrow corridor of instability is expected to precede the front, and a few stronger storms could reach as far southeast as PIA. However, storm intensity should steadily weaken as the front progresses southeast of PIA. Cloud cover could drop from MVFR to IFR as the front moves across Illinois, with a few storms possibly even producing brief LIFR conditions. Have not included any tempos for those conditions yet, and kept MVFR in the prevailing weather. Will monitor closely for a stratus IFR layer near and just behind the front. Winds will remain southerly the first 6-8 hours of this TAF period, then begin to shift around to the southwest and eventually W-NW behind the cold front. Wind speeds early this evening could linger at 10-15kt, but prevailing winds should remain 10kt or less for later tonight and tomorrow morning. Increased mixing Friday afternoon will push winds back into the 10-15kt range. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Shimon SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Shimon
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1015 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 High pressure est of Indiana will exit the area tonight. A tropical low pressure system over the lower Mississippi Valley will surge northward tonight...bring rain showers to Central Indiana for late tonight and Friday. Heavy rain will be possible with some of the rain showers as the low moves through the Ohio valley on Friday. As the low departs on Friday night...dry weather is expected to return to Central Indiana for the weekend as cool high pressure settles across the Great Plains. This will result dry weather for the weekend. The large high will remain the dominate weather feature for much of the next work week. This will keep mainly dry weather with below normal temperatures through next week. && .NEAR TERM /Overnight/... Issued at 930 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Scattered showers expected to linger over the southern zones for a couple more hours as a mid level vorticity lobe drifts northeast through southern Indiana. Better threat for shower and thunderstorm activity expected to develop during the pre dawn hours of Friday, as a southwesterly low level jet of 35-40 kts begins to interact with a frontal system dropping south through the Great Lakes. Current forecast handles this idea well, with the highest PoPs before dawn. Increased the wind forecast a bit based on current observations. Previous discussion follows. Surface analysis early this afternoon shows Low Pressure in place across Louisiana. Warm and moist southerly flow was spilling northward into the Ohio Valley ahead of the low pressure system. GOES16 shows plentiful moisture streaming northward ahead of the low. Meanwhile to the north...a cold front stretched across Western Wisconsin and Iowa to Nebraska...progressing southeastward. These two systems will be on a collision course for the Ohio Valley Tonight and Friday. Forecast soundings and Time Height remains mostly dry this evening across Central Indiana. Models suggest a slow and steady saturation of the column through the evening hours which should just be increasing clouds. However...overnight...stronger lift arrives as seen within the mid levels...particularly across the southern half of Indiana. Lower level Q vectors also indicate good convergence developing late tonight and HRRR suggests precip arriving from the southwest associated with the low. Furthermore as the front arrives in the area front the northwest late tonight...and interacts with the warm and moist air mass across Indiana...precip chances will continue to increase. Forecast soundings by 12Z show deep saturation with very high pwats over 2 inches. Thus summing up will try and keep evening dry across Central Indiana...but trend pops toward 100 overnight...particularly across the south. Pops will be considerably lower farther north as interaction with the tropical air mass will be less at those locations. Given the expected rain and ongoing warm air advection will trend lows toward expected wet bulb temps. && .SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/... Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Ample dynamics will be in place on Friday for rain...some of which could be heavy at times. The GFS suggests the approach of the tropical low...reaching western Kentucky by late afternoon. Warm and moist southerly flow will continue to stream into the Ohio valley on Friday. Models continue to suggest excellent lower level Q vector convergence. Forecast soundings show deep saturation and Time heights also show excellent lift...particularly across the southern half of the state. Forecast soundings also show pwats remaining at or near 2 inches through much of the afternoon. Thus given the dynamics and available moisture will include a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for the southern parts of Central Indiana. Given the expected rain...will trend highs cooler than MAVMOS. GFS and NAm suggests the upper flow keeps a broad yet shallow trough in place aloft on Friday night through Sat least sunday across Indiana and the Great Lakes. This flow aloft will help to quickly usher the tropic low east of the Ohio valley on Friday Night. Cool and dry northwest surface flow will replace previous flow on Friday Night and continue into the weekend. Forecast soundings and Time height show rapid drying on Friday night as the Low and associated forcing departs. Thus may keep a small pops on Friday night...mainly across the southeast as the system departs...however most of the area will remain dry. Given the change in air mass...will stick close to the blend on lows. Saturday through Sunday should remain dry. forecast soundings show a dry column. Convective temperatures appear reachable...however a mid level inversion that appears to be present should prevent any deep cumulus growth. A the weak broad trough will remain in place aloft...but organized forcing fails to be seen and moisture remains lacking with NW flow. Thus will trend toward partly clouds this period. Given the expected cold air advection and...may trend temps cooler than blends. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Models continue to trend toward a drier forecast for the extended period. The only chances for a few showers and thunderstorms will be on Sunday and Monday afternoons, mainly over the northern counties, as a few upper waves move through the area. Otherwise, expect dry conditions throughout the extended period with a gradual warming trend. Highs will start out in the 70s on Sunday and Monday, eventually topping off in the low to mid 80s by Wednesday. Meanwhile, overnight lows will increase from the mid 50s on Sunday night to low/mid 60s by Wednesday night. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 230300Z KIND TAF Update/... Issued at 1015 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Shower activity just about done for now at the KIND terminal, based on radar loop. Previous discussion follows. Scattered showers expected in the vicinity of the terminals through about 230200Z as a mid level vorticity lobe drifts northeast through southern Indiana. Lapse rates rather poor, so sustained lightning activity not expected. Better threat for organized shower and thunderstorm activity expected to develop over the terminals during the pre dawn hours of Friday, as a southwesterly low level jet of 35-40 kts begins to interact with a frontal system dropping south through the Great Lakes. IFR visibility restrictions probable in the heavier precipitation areas at this time. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings 015-030 should gradually spread in from the south this evening. Ceilings may drop into the IFR category by the pre dawn hours under sustained warm and moist advection. Surface gusts 18-20 kts early this evening should diminish, with winds settling to 170-190 degrees at 9-12 kts later this evening. Winds should gradually veer during the pre dawn hours of Friday to 200-220 degrees by sunrise. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for INZ052>057-060>065-067>072. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Puma NEAR TERM...Puma/JAS SHORT TERM...Puma LONG TERM....TDUD AVIATION...JAS
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
933 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .UPDATE... Updated for evening discussion. && .DISCUSSION... TD Cindy was noted spinning over southwest Arkansas and is expected to track northeast through the night. The pressure gradient around Cindy was still resulting in gusty southeast to south winds across the CWA. These winds will continue through the night with the strongest winds still expected across the northwest most zones. Water vapor imagery has continued to show dry slotting over the eastern half of our CWA with the 18Z and 00Z JAN sounding showing a PWAT less than 1.7inches. This has limited convection across our area this afternoon and into this evening. Local radars still showed banded pcpn across the region. Considering the low level shear a brief tornado will remain possible in the bands that develop the remainder of the night but chances are low and the current Tornado Watch will be allowed to expire with no additional watches anticipated. The potential for locally heavy rain will exist within the banded pcpn as well so wl continue the Flash Flood Watch that is in effect. /22/ Prior discussion below: This Evening through Friday: Rain bands associated with Tropical Depression Cindy continue to pivot across our forecast area this afternoon, bringing periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds. A Slight Risk for severe weather continues across the entire area into early tonight due to the threat for damaging wind gusts as well as brief spin-up tornadoes. Moderate amounts of instability and strong low-level wind shear have resulted in decent spin even in deeper rain showers without lightning. Despite a "dry slot" wrapping around Cindy and across the central portions of our area, adequate moisture has overspread even these areas (PWAT > 1.9 inches per RAP analysis) to make showers and storms into efficient rain makers. Therefore we will continue the Flash Flood Watch into tomorrow and keep a mention of Limited to Elevated flooding threat in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. The heaviest rain overnight tonight will likely be confined to northeast Louisiana, far southeast Arkansas, and northwest/north-central Mississippi near the core of the Tropical Depression. Given the recent rounds of rainfall, flash flooding as well as creek and river flooding will be possible wherever heavy rain falls on wet ground. Daytime heating tomorrow could also lead to some marginally severe thunderstorms developing over mainly the Golden Triangle and surrounding areas as Cindy`s remnants are lifted northeastward out of our region. /NF/ Friday night through Thursday. The remnants of Cindy will continue to impact the area through the weekend. Cindy was not moving very quickly to the north, but models continue to show the system into Kentucky by Friday afternoon. However, with the area still to the east, the risk for severe storms will continue into Friday evening. Also, the area was in a dry slot and saw a good amount of sun this afternoon. Low level wind shear and plenty of moisture helped to support thunderstorm development. By Friday evening, the trough axis will be lagging behind and low level winds will not be that bad, so the potential for strong storms and maybe some severe seemed ok for the northeastern portions of the rain. Trees were falling across the region in sub-severe winds due to saturated ground. Will likely see more of the same in heavily wooded areas in the northeast sections of the CWA. Widespread heavy rainfall has not occurred with this system, but waves of downpours was causing flooding, so will maintain the flash flood watch through the Friday evening. Wanted to monitor activity through tonight before extending the watch into Saturday. Models show the area of greatest rainfall being over the Delta before shifting south and east in the evening. The lagging trough axis associated with Cindy will be absorbed by an approaching cold front and be the focus for shower and thunderstorm activity for much of Saturday. Rainfall amounts were not great, but another inch of rain on top of what is out there will aggravate flooding. High pressure moves in quickly on Sunday and helps push convection to the coast. Another front sweeps across the area with little impact before a 1023 high settles over the mid-south and keeps the area dry from Tuesday into Thursday. As the ridge shifts east, there may be some activity skirting around the ridge that moves into the southwest. going into the weekend. Temperatures will be mild, slightly below normal following the cold front. A few days of sun will bring some much needed drying to the region. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF discussion: Rainbands from Cindy are still passing across the area this evening...but dry slotting has allowed clouds across some terminals to scatter out this evening. VFR will be common as we start the 00Z TAF...but as rainbands approach terminals we may have to adjust with amendments for an hour or so TS and vis conditions. MVFR cigs should return later tonight...with VCSH remaining common. Winds will remain generally 10 to 20 kts across the area...and may increase slightly as Cindy makes her progress to the northeast. MIC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 76 86 73 83 / 41 79 63 63 Meridian 75 86 73 84 / 48 69 62 64 Vicksburg 76 85 74 83 / 61 84 61 59 Hattiesburg 75 88 74 87 / 53 66 34 68 Natchez 76 85 73 82 / 59 77 63 61 Greenville 75 84 72 82 / 86 92 64 41 Greenwood 75 82 71 82 / 50 89 66 42 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for MSZ018-019-025>066- 072>074. LA...Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026. AR...Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ NF/05/07/22
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1052 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1052 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017 Main area of rain with this first push has now moved northeast of the CWA, with only isolated light showers lingering in the southern CWA. Went ahead and reduced pops across the CWA through much of the night to reflect this trend. Latest hi-res data also supports this idea, however they also are all trending dry through the morning across much of the CWA as well. This will be something to continue to monitor over the next couple of hours, as further updates to reduce pops may be needed closer to dawn. At this time, have pops increasing towards scattered again by daybreak as we get sun/heating taking place. Otherwise, grids seem to be in good shape. Loaded in the latest observations to make sure temps, dew points, and winds were on track with current conditions. All changes have been saved and sent to NDFD/web. A new forecast package was sent out to change to overnight wording and reflect updated pops. An update to the Flash Flood watch was also sent out, though no significant changes were made. UPDATE Issued at 747 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017 Continuing to monitor the rain as it moves across eastern Kentucky, with what looks to be a pretty good back edge now moving into our SW CWA. That being said, there is still another round of precipitation located to our south that will likely make it into our SE counties over the next few hours. Generally favoring the HRRR solution which is initializing well with the ongoing conditions, and has this secondary area of rain moving across the eastern half of the CWA overnight. Will continue to monitor and adjust pops and needed. Otherwise, main updates at this time were just to make sure the temps, dew points, and winds were on track with current conditions. All changes have been published and sent to NDFD/web. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 504 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017 The leading edge of deeper moisture associated with Cindy has brought widespread showers to eastern Kentucky through the day. Lightning has been scarce so far today, with most locations receiving between a few hundredths of an inch and a half inch of rainfall, as some downsloping flow has cut into totals. The main band of showers will lift off to our northeast through this evening, with generally lesser chances expected through the overnight hours. A low level jet does pick up towards dawn, and this may initiate some better areal coverage. The remnants of Cindy will track up the Mississippi Valley on Friday, before turning more northeast across the northern half of Kentucky Friday night. An approaching cold front will interact with this system, allowing for a period of heavy rainfall that will move in to eastern Kentucky later Friday afternoon into Friday night. The models have generally shifted the higher QPF amounts more to the north with time, although given the high moisture content of the air mass, any location would have the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. As such, a flash flood watch is in effect from Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning. Locations generally near and north of a line from Mckee to Jackson to Inez will have the higher flash flood threat, where the higher 6 hour QPF totals will reside. Depending on the exact amounts, some significant river rises will also be possible. In addition to the heavy rainfall, there may also be a severe threat window Friday afternoon into Friday evening, given the stronger low level wind profiles in place and the proximity of the low center. As is typical, instability will be in question as mid-level lapse rates will be lacking. Have continued to mention this potential in the HWO. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 244 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017 The extended portion of the forecast begins on Saturday with the upper level pattern featuring a stout ridge over the western CONUS transitioning into a trough over the Great Lakes. The first wave associated with the combination of tropical moisture and a cold front will finally exit the area at the start of the forecast period. So will see a chance of showers over eastern Kentucky through the day on Saturday as the last of the showers exit the area by the evening. This will usher in a dry period as models have trended drier and drier. The mentioned stout ridge in the west will build as it shifts east nudging the axis over the Midwest by Wednesday. In addition, a bubble of surface high pressure will carve out an area of subsidence over eastern Kentucky and much of the central Appalachians. In fact, the airmass intrusion behind Cindy will bring some welcomed cooler temps to start next week with highs in the 70s expected through Wednesday. One difference in the forecast might be on Monday afternoon as the most recent 12Z Euro and GFS has brought a weak wave dropping far enough south to bring a small chance of showers and a thunderstorm. This is a change to the model trends so am more inclined to keep the dry forecast inherited from the super blend. Otherwise, the extended features dry weather and slightly cooler high temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017 Showers continue to impact much of eastern Kentucky this evening as a result of moisture advection associated with Tropical Storm Cindy. There is a defined back edge to this round of showers, with drying now occurring at the southern most TAF sites. However, another round of showers is set to begin moving in over the next hour or two. CIGS are varying across much of eastern Kentucky, though predominately VFR, with VIS generally P6SM except where the heaviest rain showers are currently occurring (KSYM and KJKL). Expect the VIS to improve as these heaviest bands move out. As for the rest of the night and into the day tomorrow, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty. Latest trends in the Hi-Res models are showing a bit of clearing late tonight and through the morning at most of the TAF sites before round 2 (the heaviest rainfall) moves into the region from the west ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. If this dry period pans out we could see some transitions between MVFR and VFR conditions through tomorrow morning, but also cannot rule out some potential fog development. Low level wind shear will threaten later tonight as well, as 850 mb winds remain around 40 to 50 kts, while south to southeast winds at the surface remain at around 5 kts or less. By tomorrow afternoon expect winds to begin picking up from the SW at the surface, and showers and thunderstorms moving back into the region, with a general trend towards MVFR CIGS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...JMW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1154 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .Forecast Update... Issued at 1150 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Issued an update for current radar trends. Looks like we can cut down on pops some for the rest of the night period, and latest hi- res guidance does not call for the banded precip over southern IN until a little later this morning. Also, the development may end up over our northern row of counties, if not just north of them in IND`s area. Latest NAM has backed off quite a bit on the low-level jet ramping up overnight, so consequently, it does not have nearly as strong of a rains as in its previous runs. Latest RAP is mor in line with current winds on the LVX VWP, and it still brings in a stronger jet the rest of the night, with the best convergence again along that northern row of counties in southern IN. We still look to have a solid slug of rains moving across the entire region no need to change any of the current Flash Flood Watch. Issued at 637 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 The widespread area of light to moderate rainfall has lifted to the north of the Cumberland Parkway early this evening. To the south of this area, scattered showers continue to move north out of TN. There looks to be a relative lull in precipitation later this evening as the larger rain shield lifts out. Thereafter, rain chances will be on the increase again, particularly across southern IN during the early morning hours as discussed in the short term discussion below. Some changes were made to the pops for this evening to better reflect the expected lull, though at least slight chances were left in everywhere through the night. && .Short Term...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 223 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 ...Torrential Downpours Expected... ...Minor Flooding of Small Rivers and Streams Possible... ...Isolated Tornado Not Out of the Question... ~~Main Threats and Timing~~ The best chance for heavy rain in southern Indiana will be from after midnight tonight through Friday. The best chance for heavy rain in central Kentucky will be Friday afternoon and evening. The best chance for isolated tornadoes or damaging wind gusts will be Friday afternoon in central Kentucky, especially the Lake Cumberland region. There is also a small chance of an isolated brief spin-up or wind gust over southern Kentucky this evening. ~~Summary~~ A cold front coming in from the northwest will meet up with the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy coming up from the southwest, leading to widespread rain. Plentiful atmospheric moisture will result in locally torrential downpours. ~~Rainfall Amounts~~ General amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected, with embedded bands of heavier rain. Today`s model runs, with some exceptions, have come into decent agreement showing the band of heaviest rain between I-64 and the Cumberland Parkway. ~~Confidence~~ At this time, confidence is high that a band of heavy rain will set up, likely over central Kentucky. Confidence of heavy rain is less in southern Indiana and southeastern sections of central Kentucky (Lake Cumberland area). Small changes in the track and timing of Cindy will lead to significant changes in where the heavy rain sets up. ~~Details~~ Tropical Depression Cindy, centered near Shreveport, Louisiana at the start of the short term, will head north into Arkansas tonight and then northeast into southern Kentucky Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach from the northwest, reaching the Ohio River by Friday evening. It will then pick up Cindy`s remnants and whisk them off to northern Virginia by dawn Saturday. The models, including the HWRF, have come into pretty good agreement with this. The rain this afternoon has been efficient, with moderate to briefly heavy rain despite radar dbz`s only in the 40s. As of 1pm CDT the Kentucky Mesonet site in Simpson County already received nearly an inch and a half of rain. The rain will continue to move to the northeast late this afternoon and evening. The HRRR has been very consistent with the idea of sprouting isolated convection behind the departing steady rain early this evening. The chance of isolated showers/storms will be enhanced during a brief window before sunset if the breaks in the overcast currently over the lower Mississippi Valley can work their way in. Isolated wind gusts or even a brief, weak spin-up wouldn`t be out of the question given strong low level shear and stronger winds aloft as seen on OHX VWP. After midnight rain chances will increase significantly over southern Indiana as moisture pools ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest and low level jetting increases. Precipitable water values will increase to 2 to 2.5 inches, leading to locally heavy downpours. On Friday the front and Cindy`s circulation will feed on deep moisture to produce widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms with torrential downpours. Low and mid level winds will increase Friday afternoon and low level shear will be strong ahead of and to the right of the circulation. Though insolation will be at a premium and instability will be weak, rotation will be possible in the low- topped convection and could result in isolated wind gusts or brief, weak tornadoes in central Kentucky. If we get some breaks in the cloudcover to increase instability, severe chances will increase. The best chances will be in the Lake Cumberland region. .Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 The long term will be quiet as Canadian high pressure slowly makes its way across the central and eastern United States. Could see some valley fog in the Lake Cumberland region Saturday morning. Temperatures will be very mild for early summer, with highs in the 70s to around 80 through Wednesday, then warming up a bit late in the week. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 717 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 A large area of light to moderate rain will continue to lift north this evening. This rain may drop visibility at SDF and LEX to 2SM or less at times over the next couple of hours. Thereafter, there should be a lull in precipitation at all the TAF sites. There may be some brief improvement in the ceilings to VFR during this time as well. However, as the remnants of Cindy approach early tomorrow morning, ceilings will lower to MVFR once again. Rain chances will be on the increase from the morning into the afternoon with a few thunderstorms possible. Rain will be heavy at times which could lower visibilities to IFR or below temporarily in the heaviest showers, mainly tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be gusty out of the south-southwest through the day Friday. && .Hydrology... Issued at 259 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Areas of heavy rain will extend northward tonight. The rain will end after midnight early Saturday morning. This is due to a combination of the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy coming up from the south and a cold front sweeping in from the northwest. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain are expected with the entire system. It is important to note, though, that within this general area of rain there may be narrow bands of higher amounts where thunderstorms train over the same locations. This will lead to rises streams in the area with minor flooding possible. The largest threat will be in the Green, Barren, and Rough basins. However, only minor flood levels are expected. In addition, thunderstorms will produce locally torrential downpours which could lead to flash flooding. If you live in a flood prone area, watch water levels closely over the next few days. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Flash Flood Watch through late Friday night for INZ076>079-083- 084-089>092. KY...Flash Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Friday through Saturday morning for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082. && $$ Update...RJS/EER Short Term...13 Long Term...13 Aviation...EER Hydrology...CMC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
915 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .UPDATE... 915 PM CDT Main concern is isolated risk for strong to severe thunderstorms tonight. Forecast is largely in good shape, with no significant changes needed to the grids. The surface cold front is fairly diffuse across Wisconsin this evening. Some scattered shower activity with thus far no lightning observed has broken out north of I-88 in Illinois. While the strongest mid and upper level and jet forcing lags to the north the more widespread thunderstorm activity from central IA to central and southern WI is tied to the cold front and a subtle shortwave noted on W/V imagery. The shortwave and front will gradually drag this higher coverage of thunderstorms southward tonight. Current thermodynamic environment features moderate instability and fairly weak deep layer wind shear. As the higher coverage of thunderstorms arrive tonight and sag south through the night, SBCIN and MLCIN should gradually wane despite warm and humid air mass ahead of the front with nocturnal stabilization, while MUCAPE will remain in 1500-2000 j/kg range. A modest increase in winds aloft accompanying the shortwave will bump up deep layer shear a bit, though still fairly marginal. The moderate instability and marginal to moderate shear environment will be supportive of isolated stronger thunderstorms. Had coordinated with SPC to lower severe risk to Marginal/Isolated. Main risks from any strong/severe storms will be wind and hail. In addition, high PWAT air mass (near 2") will make the more intense storms very efficient rain producers, so some ponding/localized flooding can`t be ruled out. Castro && .SHORT TERM... 225 PM CDT Through Friday... Concerns center around isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon, and then with a line of storms late this evening and overnight. Inhibition gradually continues to erode from the south generally driven by low level moisture advection soundings. AMDAR soundings still depict some decent capping thanks to fairly warm temperatures in the 800-700 mb layer, at least closer to Chicago The HRRR now has backed off a bit on the coverage for the afternoon and early evening, consistent with very little/weak convergence in place and a lack of a larger scale forcing mechanism. But there is some weak upper forcing pushing in from the south, thus we maintain an isolated shower and storm mention for the afternoon/early evening. Shear profiles are still fairly weak during this period thus severe threat is low. We will hang onto instability through the evening ahead of the cold front currently draped across the northern plains/upper midwest. Stronger upper level winds will approach the area along the southern fringes of the upper low across Manitoba. Clusters of storms will continue to develop along and ahead of the front. Any storms that area able to get going this evening ahead of the front will form in an axis of 1000+ J/Kg of MLCAPE and shear in excess of 30 kt, which keep the threat of hail or locally damaging winds, mainly across north central IL this evening, especially if anything forms upstream and develops a cold pool while pushing ahead into the continued unstable airmass. The cold front will pass through the Chicago area after midnight, with the line of storms passing southeast with it. There are some waves in the southwest flow aloft that may initially slow the progression of the front before it gets shoved southeastward late tonight, and may prevent a solid line, but confidence is pretty high in many areas seeing some activity. Moisture pooling ahead of the front would suggest at least some brief heavy downpours in this scenario, while the more significant flood threat is largely just to our north/northwest. Quite the airmass change will filter air on Friday, with much drier air across the upper Midwest (note the 40s Tds in MN). These will not get here that quickly but eventually will get in here this weekend. Still humidity levels will be much lower, and temps look to top off in the upper 70s to near 80. It may be a bit cooler along the IN shore. Showers and storms look to still be ongoing tomorrow morning, but guidance is in good agreement of getting the front through in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... 238 PM CDT Friday night through Thursday... For the longer term forecast period, general trends remain consistent with previous runs and the short term forecast period trends. By Friday night, the longwave pattern will be trending toward a higher amplitude with building ridging over the west coast and broad troughing over the ern 2/3 of the CONUS. The broad upper trough will help contribute to a period of below normal temperatures for the weekend through early next week. The local area will be under fast nwly flow aloft, with a series of nrn stream shortwaves dropping through the nwly flow, sharpening the upper trough and generating sct showers. Chances for thunderstorms will be low, though not out of the question for the afternoon hours. The highest chance for any pcpn through the weekend will likely be Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening when a stronger shortwave is expected to drop through the upper Mississippi Valley and across the upper Great Lakes. There are some strength differences noted in the longer range guidance, with the ECMWF trending stronger than the GFS/GEM, though all indicate similar timing. So, will carry chance PoPs for the nrn portions of the CWA with some scattered thunderstorms possible. Any pcpn should be scattered, so the day should not be a washout. Temperatures for the weekend through early next week will be below normal, with highs only in the lower 70s through Monday. With high pressure associated with a dry continental polar air mass sliding out of Canada and across the cntrl Plains and Mississippi Valley, dewpoints will also be anomalously low for late June and should only be in the upper 40s to around 50 F. By Tuesday, the upper ridge is still expected to build east across the Rockies and out over the cntrl CONUS while sfc high pressure shifts to the east coast. Rising heights aloft and increasingly sly flow at the sfc will set up a return flow of warm/moist air with temps reaching the upper 70s for Tuesday and the lower 80s for midweek. Dewpoints should also be on the rise back into the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs... The scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm development across the area has seen somewhat of a diminishing trend, with latest radar imagery depicting lower coverage of both. Don`t anticipate any increasing trend of coverage through mid evening, with MDW and GYY having the highest chances of observing a brief shower in the near term. VFR conditions in place at this time and it does appear that MVFR ceilings will try to move overhead this evening, but likely not arriving until later tonight. This will occur with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, stemming from currently development across WI and eastern IA. No real big change with this thinking, with this development not arriving until late tonight into early Friday morning. Will continue to monitor trends this evening, as coverage and timing of these thunderstorms could possibly change. Southwest winds will persist for much of tonight until FROPA turns winds to the north northwest. Have continued a north northwest wind through Friday, but in this setup, lake breeze development is a possibility. If this were to occur, a wind shift to the east in the afternoon would be possible. However, low confidence with this possibility at this time, and have continued the northwest direction. Rodriguez && .MARINE... 245 PM CDT The low over western Manitoba will weaken as it crosses Ontario tonight and then continues to Quebec Friday. An associated cold front will sweep across the lake tonight into early Friday morning with winds becoming west to northwest behind the front. Westerly winds are expected to continue through early next week. High pressure should then build in behind the exiting cold front, spreading across the plains Sunday and the western Great Lakes early next week, setting up a period of relatively light and variable winds. As the high shifts to the east and new low pressure develops over the northern plains, winds will trend more southerly and strengthen to arnd 15 to 20 kt by Tuesday. A strengthening southerly pressure gradient could bring winds up to 30 kt by mid week as high pressure remains parked over the sern CONUS and the trough and associated cold front track east across the plains. && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
744 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 406 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a deep mid-level low over southern Manitoba (500mb height anomalies around 230m). Low is embedded in overall broad, low-amplitude troffing centered over central N America. In the weakly cyclonic flow across the n central CONUS, shra/tstms have been tracking from the eastern Dakotas/IA toward Lower MI today, aided by right entrance of 120kt upper jet extending from northern MN across northern Ontario and low to mid level frontogenesis. Northern edge of this pcpn extends about as far n and w as a Watersmeet to Marquette line. As upper jet axis and frontogenesis drift se tonight, ongoing shra and isolated embedded thunder will also shift se. Much, if not all, of the shra should be se of the fcst area by 06z. Otherwise, over the next 24hrs, the deep mid-level low over southern Manitoba will open up as it moves ese, with remnant vort max passing across northern Lake Superior Fri aftn. Ahead of it, another shortwave trof currently over MT/ND will also shift e, moving across Upper MI late tonight/Fri morning. Not really anything going on ahead of the latter wave. Farther w and nw under colder mid-levels, isold shra are developing in nw ND. Given arrival of wave late tonight/Fri morning, these shra will likely have dissipated before reaching the area. On Fri, remnant of the Manitoba mid-level low will arrive at a more favorably aligned time with respect to daytime heating. Lingering low-level moisture over the eastern fcst area combined with Lake Superior lake breeze aided windshift may support sct -shra over the eastern fcst area inland from Lake Superior in the aftn. No mention of thunder was included in fcst. However, with model consensus for mlcape of a couple hundred j/kg, not out of the question that there could be a rumble or two of thunder. To the w, cooling mid-levels under somewhat sharper troffing might support a few sprinkles or an isolated -shra inland. At this point, lack of instability suggests a mention of pcpn in fcst is not warranted. Otherwise, looks like a breezy day under deep mixing. Expect gusts to 20-30mph over the w and central, strongest over the Keweenaw. Deep mixing should also support dwpts falling to or blo lowest guidance, but no fire wx issues given the surplus of rainfall over the last couple of weeks. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 409 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017 The wet and cooler than normal trend will continue through much of the extended portion of the forecast. The general trend for much of the extended forecast continues to be the troughing over the east half of the CONUS with ridging expected to linger over the west half. The main impact that this will have on the weather in the U.P. will be increased cloud cover along with intermittent chance for rain showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms. The better chances for rain will occur with the diurnal instability cycle, during peak heating in the afternoon and synchronized with the multiple shortwaves sliding around the trough the area. At this point, the more widespread focus will likely be Saturday through Sunday, mainly in the afternoon, as a stronger upper-level disturbance slides through or just south of the U.P. Temperatures will generally be in the mid to upper 60s with overnight lows in the 40s to around 50. Toward the end of the extended forecast, Tuesday through Thursday, models are trending toward a bit of a brief break in the troughing across the area. This will allow a brief ridge to build in ahead of a cold front that is expected to slide into the area Wednesday into Thursday. As the front slides through Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will return once again. Ahead of this front and under the ridge, temperatures will warm closer to normal with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the mid to upper 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 741 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW through the forecast period with sct-bkn diurnal cu developing by Friday afternoon. Gusty winds will develop Friday morning, especially at KCMX which is more exposed to westerly winds. Gusts up to 30kt are expected late morning thru the aftn. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 406 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017 Vis satellite imagery has given hints of patchy fog on Lake Superior today. This patchy fog may linger tonight and then perhaps thru Fri over far eastern Lake Superior. Winds will remain generally below 20kts into early next week. Stongest winds should occur later tonight thru Fri evening when gusts may reach 20-25kt at times. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rolfson LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...JLB MARINE...Rolfson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
618 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 So far, the cap has been holding. The synoptic scale cold front is still northwest of Omaha and Lincoln, so still potential yet this evening. Even after the front passes, there may be some activity behind the boundary. 22Z SPC mesoanalysis suggests cap is weakest to the north and northeast of Omaha, with lowest 100 mb MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and CINH less than 25. RAP model may be a bit overdone with precipitation coverage and amounts, based on what happened last evening. 21Z ESRL HRRR suggest some activity developing by 01Z and then even into tonight. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 12z upper-air analysis revealed a belt of stronger cyclonic flow from the northern Rockies into the Dakotas with an embedded short- wave trough over the northern High Plains. This disturbance will track southeast into the mid MO Valley tonight into early Friday, enhancing forcing for ascent and vertical shear ahead of it. In the low levels, mesoanalysis depicted a cold front stretching from north-central IA through northeast into south-central NE as of early afternoon. The boundary layer ahead of this front has been warming and moistening today, which when coupled with the steep lapse rates aloft is yielding a moderately unstable air mass this afternoon. Considerable elevated convection is ongoing across the area as of 19z, likely rooted within the EML/steep lapse-rate plume. And latest convection-allowing model guidance remains relatively consistent in suggesting that surface-based storms will become increasingly probable in the 22-00z time frame, generally along the I-80 corridor. A few of these storms could become strong to severe this evening with locally damaging winds and hail being the primary hazards. Showers and thunderstorm chances should diminish from north to south tonight into early Friday as a cooler, continental-polar air mass advances south into the region. This air mass will remain in place over the mid MO Valley through the weekend with daytime highs in the 70s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Longwave troughing from Hudson Bay into the OH Valley at the onset of the long-term forecast period will gradually shift east ahead of an evolving trough over western Canada into the northwestern states. The latter trough will subsequently progress east into the north-central Plains, supporting an increase in precipitation chances by about the middle of next week. Daytime highs will gradually warm back through the 80s during the early to middle part of the upcoming work week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Wind shift will move through the KOMA and KLNK areas early this evening. Generally expect VFR conditions through the period. Ceilings with any TSRA could drop below 2500 feet and vsby could drop below 3 miles, but confidence on exactly when and where is not high enough to include in TAFs. Will amend as needed. Expect variable mid clouds after 06z. North winds may be a bit gusty right behind the cold front for a while, then decrease. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ UPDATE...Miller SHORT TERM...Mead LONG TERM...Mead AVIATION...Miller
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
908 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track well north of our area Friday and Saturday. An associated cold front crosses our region during Saturday as some tropical moisture moves ahead of and along it. As high pressure builds well to our southwest Sunday into Monday, a weak cold front moves through our area later Monday. High pressure then builds across the Mid Atlantic Tuesday and Wednesday, before shifting offshore Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... While the showers and thunderstorms have weakened and consolidated across central PA, they continue to track to the east. POPs were raised to likely adjacent to the CTP CWA. Chance POPs and the threat of showers were also painted further east into the western Philly suburbs as the HRRR continues to show showers approaching I95. Previous discussion... The 6:30 pm ESTF update will include a few tweaks with temps and dewpoints. Sky, weather, and POPs were also adjusted across our far western zones as the showers and thunderstorms are dissipating a bit more slowly. The HRRR brings some precip to I95 corridor between 03-04z, but we feel this over done. Previous discussion... The first challenge of the near term forecast will be if and how quickly any convection associated with a low level trough to our west reaches our region by early this evening. Showers and thunderstorms have already developed across western PA, but it is unclear if they will reach our region before sunset, when we should see activity diminish (this convection appears to be very much diurnally driven as there is limited forcing in the mid and upper levels and model soundings show a low level inversion developing quickly this evening. Through the overnight hours, the closed low over south central Canada is expected to continue gradual progress east. As it does so, we may begin to see the next round of showers and thunderstorms move into our region in the pre dawn hours, though latest model timing indicates it is unlikely we will see this before daybreak. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... As the low and it`s associated cold front make slow progress east, it will interact with remnant moisture of TD Cindy. Through much of the day tomorrow, it looks like the axis of the deepest moisture and best lift generally stay to our north and west. Having said that though, it is likely that some convection will move into our region through the day especially west of the fall line. It is also likely that we will keep mid level clouds over our region for much of the day as the mid level cloud shield associated with this is already moving into SW VA. Cloud cover will be crucial in determining our severe potential tomorrow afternoon. Model soundings indicate that if we can see some clearing by mid day, we could have CAPE values in our region over 500 J/kg. Bulk shear remains limited (generally less than 30 kt) until very late in the day. Thus, any severe threat (hail and strong winds) will be conditional on clearing early enough in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Summary...Tropical moisture moves through Friday night and the first half of Saturday with a cold front, then lowering humidity levels during the second part of the weekend and next week. Some cooling next week as a trough settles into the East for a time. Synoptic Overview...An upper-level trough amplifies eastward from the Midwest and Great Lakes to the Northeast through Sunday. This will send a cold front our way, however the remnants of tropical system Cindy interacts with it. This feature, while possibly less defined at the surface, should have its mid level energy enhance our chances for locally heavy rain later Friday night and Saturday morning. The trough is then forecast to sharpen in the East through the first half of next week, before lifting out later Wednesday or Thursday. The presence of this trough will result in cooler temperatures for a few days, with perhaps some instability showers/thunder especially early in the week. We used a model/continuity blend for Friday night through Saturday night, then blended in the 12z WPC Guidance. Some adjustments were then made following additional collaboration with our neighboring offices. For Friday night and Saturday...As a trough amplifies eastward from the Midwest and Great Lakes region, surface low pressure tracks well to our north. An associated cold front however will be moving through our area Saturday. While this occurs, the remnant energy from tropical system Cindy gets caught up in the faster flow aloft as it moves northward and then accelerates east-northeastward. While the surface feature should be less defined, the model guidance shows the mid level energy holding together as it crosses especially the southern half of our area Saturday morning. There is an axis of very high moisture content air moving east with PW values of 2.0-2.5 inches. This moisture in combination with lift from the front and remnant tropical system Cindy will result in locally heavy rain. While there is some potential for localized flooding, the system should be moving through fairly quickly. As a result, we held off on a Flash Flood Watch at this time. This may have to be revisited though especially for the urban I-95 corridor. The main area of concern looks to be from the Philadelphia metro area on south and eastward. The forecast soundings generally show a tall and thin CAPE profile, which within a very moist air mass tends to lead to areas of locally very heavy rain. Backing up a bit, there should be ongoing convection to our west that spreads eastward Friday night with the front and then the tropical system remnants. We have an area of likely PoPs across the western/northern areas Friday evening, then these spread south and eastward overnight and increase to low end categorical toward daybreak for some areas. For Saturday, we confined an axis of likely to low-end categorical PoPs to mostly the morning hours. At least some clearing should then occur from west to east Saturday afternoon and especially at night with dew points dropping in the wake of the cold front. It is possible that a few showers or thunder develops in the afternoon especially across the eastern and southern zones where lingering instability is present before the front clears the coast. For Sunday and Monday...An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify across the East during this time frame. This should be accompanied by a secondary cold front at the surface later Monday. While Sunday overall looks dry with lowering dew points, some instability showers or low-topped thunderstorms will be possible Monday especially in the afternoon to early evening. The presence of the upper-level trough and accompanying cooling aloft will result in cooler surface temperatures especially more noticeable on Monday. For Tuesday through Thursday...The upper-level trough in place Tuesday into Wednesday may begin to lift out later Wednesday or Thursday. This will allow surface high pressure to build in from the west-southwest before shifting offshore Thursday. As the main part of the trough is overhead Tuesday, there will be the chance for some instability showers during the daytime. The dew points are anticipated to be in the comfortable zone due to the presence of the trough and associated cooler air mass. Some moderating of the temperatures is expected Wednesday and especially Thursday as high pressure moves offshore and a warm air advection pattern should begin. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. With showers and isolated thunderstorms still holding together and now working through Berks and Lancaster counties, VCSHs were added to the I95 terminals. Previous discussion... Tempo -SHRA was added to both KRDG and KABE between 23z and 02z to account for the showers and thunderstorms moving in from the west. Previous discussion... VFR conditions are expected to continue through at least 00Z, and likely through 06Z. After 00Z lower clouds and showers and thunderstorms are expected to approach the region from the southwest. Though the chance for showers and thunderstorms begins after 00Z, it looks more likely that precipitation will hold off in our region until closer to 12Z. With any showers and thunderstorms, MVFR conditions are likely, and IFR conditions are possible, especially with heavy downpours which are possible tomorrow morning. Conditions may improve to VFR for several hours after 18Z. OUTLOOK... Friday night and Saturday...Times of MVFR/IFR conditions with showers and some thunderstorms. Some heavier rain can significantly reduce the local visibility at times. The greatest coverage of showers should be late Friday night and Saturday morning, with improving conditions Saturday afternoon and night. Sunday...VFR overall. Monday and Tuesday...VFR overall, however a few mainly afternoon and early evening showers or a thunderstorm are possible each day. && .MARINE... Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria through Friday morning. By mid day seas and southwesterly winds will increase on the coastal waters and SCA conditions are likely to develop by early afternoon. Strong winds are possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorms that may develop especially Friday afternoon. OUTLOOK... Friday night and Saturday...A cold front will approach Friday night with some increase in a southwesterly flow. The forecast soundings indicate that the mixing is not all that efficient due to a very warm and humid air mass, however times of 25-knot gusts can occur and this should build the seas on the ocean to around 5 feet. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory was issued for only the ocean zones through 10z/6 AM Saturday. This advisory may need to be extended through much of Saturday prior to the frontal passage. Sunday through Tuesday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria during this time frame, with subsiding seas during Sunday. RIP CURRENTS... We are forecasting that the low risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents will continue into tomorrow. However, even with a low risk...the bigger diurnal difference in the tide cycle as we approach the date of this months new moon could mean some rapidly changing conditions. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High astronomical tide levels are expected in association with the new moon on Friday. That, combined with increasing southerly flow, is expected to result in minor coastal flooding with the afternoon and evening high tide for the Atlantic coastal areas and the shores of the lower Delaware Bay. There may be minor coastal flooding further up the bay, but it is unlikely, so will not expand the coastal flood advisory at this time. Minor coastal flooding may occur again with the high tide cycle Friday afternoon and evening, though the latest guidance has backed off slightly from previous runs. We will have a better idea of the potential tomorrow once we see the tidal departures this evening. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NJZ012>014-020-022>027. DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for DEZ003- 004. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ450>455. && $$ Synopsis...Gorse Near Term...Johnson Short Term...Johnson Long Term...Gorse Aviation...Gorse/Johnson Marine...Gorse/Johnson Tides/Coastal Flooding...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1020 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .DISCUSSION... The center of TD Cindy continues to weaken as it shifts NE into extreme Srn AR this evening, with sfc obs depicting the center between TXK and ELD as of 03Z. Much of the convection containing heavy rainfall remains localized near and just S of the center, from near SHV E to RSN, with the continued dry air entrainment having limited convection development across much of Ncntrl LA. However, believe this will change overnight as Cindy continues to open up into an elongated upper trough as she continues to lift NE into Scntrl AR, with the trailing H850 trough expected to linger across Scntrl AR into extreme Nrn LA near the I-20 corridor. S of this bndry, a 40-50kt Swrly LLJ will continue S of the ejecting low center, resulting in a period of continued convergence along the H850 trough and thus renewed development. In addition, 0-6km winds are expected to remain unidirectional overnight, with the potential for training across much of Ncntrl LA as evident from the ongoing convection over extreme SE TX/SW LA over the last couple of hours. PW`s remain near or in excess of 2.5 inches, with the strong low level shear expected to maintain/aid in additional redevelopment overnight. Despite little rainfall having already fallen over this area, the HRRR and 00Z NAM suggest that additional rainfall amounts of 1-3+ inches are possible, with isolated higher amounts of 5+ inches, which could result in localized flash flooding. Given this, have cancelled the Flash Flood Watch for all of E TX as well as Lafayette and Columbia Counties in SW AR W of the center, but will allow the existing watch to continue for Union County AR and all of N LA. Should the HRRR/NAM indeed verify, it`s possible the watch may need to be extended for much of Friday morning for portions of Ncntrl LA until the heavy rain threat diminishes by midday. Winds have been struggling across much of the earlier Lake Wind Advisory, thus have cancelled the Advisory early. Have also adjusted pops, mainly to drop pops for SE OK and lower them across E TX/portions of SW AR. Did maintain likely/categorical pops for N LA/Scntrl AR with the expectation of renewed development overnight. Did have to make some changes to pops Friday as well, as the highest pops will remain concentrated during the morning over N LA. Did lower them elsewhere to low/mid chance, with diurnal heating contributing to increased instability ahead of a weak sfc front that will approach SE OK/SW AR Friday afternoon, resulting in the potential for sct convection. Did make some minor tweaks to min temps tonight, as only little change is expected. Zone update/FFA/NPW cancellation already out...grids will be available shortly. 15 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 717 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/ AVIATION... For the ArkLaTex, range of flight categories from VFR TX to IFR LA/AR as TD Cindy moves pretty much overhead. Sfc winds are all over the place with Southwest to prevail in the wake of the system. Still gusty S in LA, ENE AR and SW in TX. Aloft, our climb winds are NW and back to SW for flight levels abv FL200 with only 20-40KTS in the profile. The low will eject NE overnight and the rain with, but IFR/MVFr cigs and vsby remain. An approaching cold front will arrive tomorrow late into Sat a.m. with TSTMS. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 76 88 74 83 / 80 50 60 60 MLU 76 86 74 83 / 90 80 60 70 DEQ 73 89 70 84 / 20 40 60 40 TXK 74 87 72 82 / 50 40 60 60 ELD 75 85 72 82 / 90 80 60 60 TYR 76 91 74 84 / 20 20 60 60 GGG 76 89 74 83 / 40 20 60 70 LFK 76 90 76 86 / 50 20 40 70 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Friday for ARZ073. LA...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Friday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 15