Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/18/17
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
230 PM AKDT Sat Jun 17 2017
.DISCUSSION...
As mentioned in previous discussion the overall upper level
weather pattern is in good agreement within 24hrs but then only
general agreement 48 to 60 hours or through Monday night. Even
though the track of the upper level low across the North Slope may
differ in the models and the ECMWF kicks out the low to the Arctic
more quickly than previous solution, the overall pattern
continues with unsettled weather across the Interior and North
Slope.
Arctic Coast and Brooks Range: As typical the main issue will be
the returning fog and low stratus. Expecting that there will be
fog of half mile visibilities from Barrow eastward, with
concentrated area of quarter mile visibilities or less from
Deadhorse to Kaktovik. Visibilities should improve recover quickly
on Sunday morning. Expect rain and snow showers to move northward
along the Western Brooks Range and extend from Cape Lisburne to
Barrow by Sunday morning. Looking further into Monday into Tuesday
the easterly winds will begin to increase once again along the
Beaufort Sea, particularly for Point Thompson east.
West coast and western Interior: Expect fog to redevelop over the
west coast, with quarter mile or less of visibility Kotzebue
Sound (mainly from Kivalina to Kotzebue). Expect areas near
Deering and Shishmaref to have more off shore flow so the fog is
not expected to be as low or push into the villages. Although
initial thinking is that the visibility would not be dense, the
HRRR model shows a smaller area of quarter mile or less
specifically in the Kotzebue to Kivalina area. Otherwise expect
scattered showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms this
evening, as we already see development and lightning strikes from
satellite imagery from Anvik toward Huslia. As the trough axis
pushes west there will be a more widespread shower activity across
Western Interior to West Coast from Scammon Bay to north of the
Seward Peninsula.
Central and eastern Interior: Continued moist southwest flow
above the thermal trough will result in scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Starting to see breakup in clouds in the eastern Interior, particularly
southeast east of the greater Fairbanks, as the greater potential
for thunderstorms along a line form Chalkyitsik to Beaver to
Minto to McGrath. Some of the thunderstorms may produce heavy
downpours, gusty winds and small hail. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible again on Sunday, mainly along
the thermal trough that runs from Arctic Village to Holy Cross as
it shifts further into western Interior. Should continue to see a
warming trend in temperatures tomorrow and Monday for much of the
Interior. Monday there will be some scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms, particularly along the thermal trough from
Eagle to Fairbanks. Shower activity will be limited midweek as a
ridge builds over the eastern Interior for most areas.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Expect scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms to continue across the area this afternoon and
evening mainly along the thermal trough. Already several lightning
strikes from Huslia to south of Arctic Village and Eagle. The
greatest potential for thunderstorms today will be along and near
a line from Chalkyitsik to Beaver to Minto to McGrath. On Monday
the best chances for thunderstorms will be along a line from Eagle
to Fairbanks.
Relative humidity values will be above 30 percent for most
locations today and tomorrow. A warming drying trend is expected
tomorrow and Monday but will only see minimum relative humidity
values to reach into mid to upper 20s along the Canadian border on
Monday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...although there was decent rain amounts of 0.50 to
0.75 inches across the area with the thunderstorms, it was rather
spotty and widespread was more of hundredth to tenth of an inch.
No hydro concerns.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ220.
&&
$$
JUN 17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
916 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017
Relatively insignificant changes were made with this update cycle,
mainly to accommodate convective coverage and intensity which is
diminishing even a bit faster than earlier anticipated. Diabatic
cooling and earlier convective outflows and overturning have all
acted to reduce bouyancy and thus the depth and persistence of
most individual updrafts since 00 UTC.
UPDATE Issued at 554 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017
This update incorporated recent trends in radar imagery and CAMs
through the 21 UTC HRRR into the hourly PoP forecast this evening.
In general, we expect low-topped convection to slowly diminish the
next few hours as low-level cooling reduces MLCAPE that`s been on
the order of 500 J/kg this afternoon. However, the CAM suites are
supportive of isolated to scattered showers continuing in central
ND overnight as a quasi-stationary frontal zone becomes oriented
north-south across that area. Otherwise, we believe the threat of
non-supercell tornadoes has diminished considerably now that the
afternoon convection has dispersed ambient low-level vorticity in
the vicinity of the weak wind shift that extends from near Watford
City to Bismarck and Jamestown as of 22 UTC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017
Isolated severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening,
favoring the James River Valley; otherwise numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms continue with atmospheric conditions
favorable for brief funnels and/or landspout tornadoes through
early evening.
After collaborating with Rapid City Forecast Office, will cancel
the wind advisory in the far southwest as winds have not materialized
to advisory criteria thus far. There are indications that advisory
level winds might still be possible in southern Bowman County
this evening, but we can handle it with a special weather
statement if need be.
Currently, large scale ascent sliding from north central ND into the
James River valley, (ahead of a mid/upper level shortwave trough),
will slide atop a stalled frontal boundary which is stretched out
from near Williston to Hazen, and into Jamestown. SPC mesoanalysis
continues to advertise widespread Non-Supercell Tornadic Parameter
values between 1 and 3 north of the frontal boundary. Effective
Bulk Shear has shown weakening trends across the James River
Valley over the last few hours, as the bullseye of 30kt to 40kt
effective bulk shear is now located in southeastern ND. The latest
RAP forecast shows this trend continuing into 00z Sunday, away
from the James River Valley. If this holds true, then would expect
once the convection behind the current boundary arrives late this
afternoon, the mode of convection would mimic pulse like
thunderstorms like we have been observing. The potential for
brief funnels/landspouts remains the main concern given the
strength of the low level instability and surface vorticity, in
combination with weak effective shear mentioned above.
Ascent begins to wane by 06z Sunday, thus after sunset, areal
coverage of convection and intensity should begin to shrink/weaken.
Isolated showers will linger past midnight central ND, with drier
conditions west.
For Sunday, another shortwave trough embedded within northwest flow
and cyclonic curvature will impact the Turtle Mountains south
through the James River Valley with scattered showers and thunderstorms,
mostly during the afternoon and early evening. Not expecting severe
thunderstorms at this time as CAPE values look to range between
500-1000J/Kg/, thus weak instability, along with 0-6km bulk shear
of 20kt, weak shear.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017
Overall a northwest flow dominates under a persistent upper
low/trough continuing to reside over Ontario, Canada. This is
disrupted briefly at times, especially Tuesday/Wednesday when zonal
flow returns. Thereafter, cyclonic curvature dominates again with
northwest flow and periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms.
For Monday, the far north central and Turtle Mountains will be on
the fringes of some showers and thunderstorms as a shortwave trough
slides through the northwest flow. For Tuesday night, a warm
front/cold front slide through via the westerly flow, still possibly
impacting northern ND and into the northern James River Valley. The
warmest air will arrive with the zonal flow Tuesday/Wednesday with
highs in the lower to mid 80s southwest and south central. Highs in
the 70s return Thursday through Saturday with the northwest flow
aloft along with periodic showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 916 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017
A few showers will linger across central ND through Sunday, with a
few thunderstorms also possible again Sunday afternoon. Otherwise,
MVFR stratus will likely form in central ND tonight and linger
into Sunday morning. There`s a high probability of MVFR ceilings
impacting KMOT and KJMS, and a chance they will affect KBIS, too.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...CJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
605 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017
...Updated Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017
Main concern is severe convection and strong cold front winds
tonight. An impressive strong jet streak was moving across the
Northern Rockies impinging on the Northern Plains today. 400mb jet
core was around 100 knots moving across Wyoming late this morning.
This intense jet and storm system will result in a rather strong
cold front for mid-June across western Kansas later this
afternoon/evening. Convective outflow from the overnight MCS across
eastern KS altered the surface flow field somewhat, however synoptic
influences with the approaching jet streak should readjust the flow
field with a bit of a cyclonic center developing just ahead of the
surface cold front across west-central KS early this evening. This
is where the best chance for a vigorous thunderstorm will develop,
and there is growing agreement among various convective-allowing
models of this occurring across southwest KS. The latest runs of the
HRRR even suggest a supercell structure is not out of the question.
There will certainly be strong enough mid and upper level winds to
support a supercell right along or immediately ahead of the cold
front. The cold front itself should have a very healthy density
current head with it, as it charges south early this evening. This
alone will lead to 25 to 40 mph winds in the region of strongest
pressure rises. Add vigorous deep moist convection to the equation
and and the wind potential goes up dramatically -- perhaps peak
gusts in the 70-80mph range in an isolated location tied to the
strongest severe storm. Of course, as with any supercell storm, very
large hail will also be expected. Severe weather threat will exit
the southwest KS region in the 04-06z time frame with a much cooler
airmass in place. Not much to worry about in the forecast for
tomorrow. A very pleasant day forecast with fresh airmass in place --
dewpoints in the 40s and temperatures topping out around 80 most
areas. We just have to get through tonight!
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017
After this weekend, we will gradually return to a summer pattern
as a 594 dam 500mb high expands across the Desert Southwest
region. The expansion of the high will lead to a more anticylonically
curved mid level flow pattern out of the northwest across western
Kansas. The main polar jet will shift north to the international
border with negligible forcing for ascent for organized convective
weather. This is why POPs are generally low next week, although
widely scattered storms can be expected with surface lee trough
setups that occur. The next bonafide polar front will most likely
not be until late next week when the Desert Southwest high
flattens out as the jet stream shift slightly south. There is a
lot of uncertainty, of course, regarding any front timing and
strength that far out. Wednesday and Thursday look to be the
hottest days coming up with 100-degree highs in the forecast
again.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017
A strong cold front will sweep through this evening, ushering in
convection and strong NE winds. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected, and included TEMPO groups when impacts are most probable
at each terminal. Primary threat from storms this evening will be
strong wind gusts, possibly exceeding 50 kts with the strongest
storms. HRRR model generates a line of convection from roughly
HYS to LBL 01-02z, with a thunderstorm complex exiting the P28
vicinity around 04z. Even outside of convection, NE winds will be
very strong for several hours this evening, with an unusually
strong pressure gradient for June. NE wind gusts of 35-40 kts can
be expected, with areas of blowing dust reducing visibility. North
winds will diminish rapidly late tonight through Sunday morning.
VFR is expected Sunday, with light north winds around 10 kts and
much cooler temperatures.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 62 82 61 87 / 30 0 0 0
GCK 61 82 59 89 / 30 0 0 0
EHA 60 83 60 90 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 64 83 62 90 / 20 0 10 0
HYS 60 80 59 87 / 40 0 0 10
P28 65 84 61 88 / 50 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1031 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a weak
cold front/surface trough positioned over eastern WI early this
afternoon. Cu has been building through the day along the front,
and wouldnt be surprised to see a few showers pop up. Cu is more
robust over northern WI and the Upper Peninsula, where showers
appear to be a slightly better bet though. Looking to the west,
showers and thunderstorms are popping along a cold front over
northern Minnesota. Scattered showers and storms are also pushing
east over the northern Plains ahead of a potent shortwave trough.
As this trough moves east across the region tonight, precip trends
are the main forecast concern.
Tonight...The strong shortwave trough will continue to move east
and into the region late this evening and overnight. Meanwhile,
the cold front over Minnesota will slide southeast into northern
WI late tonight. Lingering daytime instability may still
contribute to isolated showers/storms over northern WI early in
the evening. But the latest short term guidance indicates that
more widespread shower and isolated thunderstorms will push into
central and north-central WI from the west by 02-04z. Elevated
instability by this time will be up to 500 j/kg, so think severe
chances are very low. Track of the shortwave and associated
deformation zone will call for the heaviest precip north and west
of the Fox Valley late tonight. Amounts could reach up to an inch
over north-central WI, which will exacerbate the higher water
levels on area rivers. Precip does not appear to make it into
eastern WI until after midnight, and should be considerably less
than areas to the northwest. Low temps ranging from the mid 50s
north to low to mid 60s south.
Sunday...The shortwave will swing northeast across the area during
the morning before exiting in the afternoon. Widespread rain will
be ongoing across northern WI for much of the morning before
exiting early in the afternoon. However, a trailing shortwave
interacting with minor instability could still lead to scattered
showers during the rest of the afternoon over much of the area.
Much cooler highs ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s.
.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017
The long term will feature off and on showers and thunderstorm
chances as the Great Lakes region remains in a NW flow regime,
with waves of energy rotating around the upper trough over eastern
Ontario. Hard to time the best chances for precip, so will
continue to feature chance or slight chance POPs from Sunday night
through Tuesday. Models showing the upper pattern becoming more
zonal on Wednesday, with brief ridging building over the western
Great Lakes, which looks to provide the best chance for a dry day.
However, models showing a wave crossing near the Canadian border
that could touch of an area of showers and storms later on
Wednesday. Again, timing these features this far out is a
challenge, but will try to get at least a couple dry periods
Tuesday night into Wednesday, then bring back chances for
rain/storms on Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Northwest flow will keep temps below normal through mid-week then
near or slightly above normal temps should return toward the end
of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017
Showers and scattered thunderstorms will increase across the
region as a strong upper level disturbance moves through.
Ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR/IFR over north central and
central WI late, and visibilities will be reduced at times due to
steadier/heavier rainfall. Improving conditions expected after 18Z
Sunday, but low clouds possible late Sunday night.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Bersch
AVIATION.......JKL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
907 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
It will be warm and humid overnight as southerly flow continues.
A cold front will move east across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley Sunday into Sunday night, resulting in showers and
thunderstorms. Cooler, but near normal conditions, will return
behind the front for the beginning of the work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Shearing MCV that is now crossing into Ohio from Indiana caused
a brief uptick in showers across eastern IND into NW Ohio but
this activity is on the wane as the MCV continues to deamplify
and it further elongates.
Attention of course turns to expanding convection over IL/IA/MO
and trying to decide what coverage/impacts this convection will
have later on in the night for the WFO ILN CWA.
18.00Z sounding from KILN was modestly unstable /SBCAPE to 1700
J/kg/ albeit with very weak shear /effective shears below
20kts/. Lapse rates aloft were weak...an underwhelming severe
weather sounding for late June. However...upstream /KILX/
sounding had decidedly stronger mid level flow and thus
effective shear with similar instability...and storms per radar
mosaics in IL showing some structure/organization as forced
ascent increases there amidst shortwave trough energy.
Up until about 22Z...just about every stormscale model run from
the past 12 hours had shown current IA/IL activity would split
with a line segment across northern IND/southern MI, and a much
beefier segment sinking southeast along the ribbon of extreme
instby well to our SW. However...more recent HRRR runs have
shown a little stronger/deeper push of convection into west
central Ohio after 2 AM with the northern line segment...so
there is still concern for an isolated strong/severe threat in
this area overnight. Confidence...however...is very low on how
this all materializes through the night considering increased
forced ascent and flow battling instby toward the bottom of the
diurnal cycle. Any strong/severe threat would be wind-based, as
low level shear remains generally weak and instby likely not
robust enough to support large hail.
Forecast update focused on generally adding detail to rain
chances and timing...focusing a higher chance across west
central ohio in the 2-4 AM timeframe /could be a stronger storm
here/. Then general increases in rain chances over the rest of
the west 1/3 of the CWA very late in the night as the
northeastern fringe of the southern line may attempt to move
into southeast Indiana/nrn KY/swrn OH after 4 or 5 AM. This not
likely to be strong/severe.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
On Sunday, the cold front will move east/southeast into our
area. Convection allowing models suggest that showers/storms may
first develop near the frontal boundary across our west by
early afternoon, followed by perhaps another area in a
prefrontal convergence region over our east. As such, have
likely PoPs for showers/storms west, with categorical PoPs for
the eastern zones. Best instability will be over the east, with
at least moderate deep layer shear expected. This will provide
the possibility for storms to become strong/severe. Again, best
threat for severe storms is poised for our eastern zones.
Damaging winds will be the main severe weather threat with the
possibility of isolated large hail. With pwat values
approaching 2 inches (150-175% of normal for mid June), locally
heavy rain will be a concern along with subsequent flooding
issues. Will mention all these threats in the HWO. Synoptic
scale winds will pick up due to diurnal mixing and a tightening
pressure gradient. Highs will range from the lower 80s west to
the mid/upper 80s east.
For Sunday night, the front will make its way east/southeast,
and should be just about out of the area by 12Z Monday.
Likely/categorical PoPs should push east/southeast during the
evening, followed by a lingering chance of showers for the main
overnight hours. Lows will range from the lower 60s northwest
to the upper 60s southeast.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At the onset of the forecast period, a cold front will be east of
and moving away from the forecast area, with just a slight chance of
a lingering shower in the southeast at daybreak. Upper level
trough digs in behind the surface front and some instability
showers appear to be in the offing for the afternoon,
particularly along the I-70 corridor closer to the "cooler" air
aloft. The air behind the front will be nicely cooler and right
at or just below seasonal normals through about Wednesday night.
The best part of this particular forecast is dewpoints in the
upper 50s to around 60 through this time, increasing late next
week as surface flow turns southerly and the upper level flow
becomes more zonal.
With the increasing surface moisture, southwest flow, and higher
propensity for disturbances to be passing over the region in the
zonal upper flow, precipitation chances increase accordingly. This
may begin as early as Wednesday night as a warm front appears to be
noted in the European model. Beyond this, a broad-brush approach was
used to denote the higher chances for thunderstorm potential.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Showers associated with a weakening/shearing mesoscale
convective vortex over eastern Indiana will remain north/west of
the terminals this evening. Just some brief mid cloud under some
thin cirrus for the next 6-9 hours.
Later tonight...after about 06Z...confidence deteriorates with
regards to how upstream convection over Iowa/Illinois moves and
how it holds together. Latest storm scale models are
inconsistent on whether terminals see any thunderstorms in the
06Z-12Z timeframe. Continued to play a dry forecast through 12Z
based on the amalgam of data, with VFR conditions continuing.
Should convection hold together, most likely impacted terminal
would be KDAY with some MVFR restrictions and some gusty winds.
On Sunday morning...approach of cold front should act to thicken
clouds/lower cigs somewhat while showers/storms begin to develop
and increase in coverage/intensity. Bulk of activity is expected
in the afternoon hours and given high available moisture a
direct hit by a thunderstorm core would almost certainly bring
IFR vsby/cigs for a brief time, but with confidence low on
specific timing, but high on coverage of showers/storms, will go
with prevailing showers and VCTS with MVFR restrictions. Front
will swing east by early evening bringing an end to any
showers/storms.
Winds tonight will remain above 8kts in most locations as
southwesterly flow maintains ahead of approaching cold front.
Gusty swly winds to continue on Sunday in advance of the front,
with 20+kt gusts likely at all sites immediately ahead of the
front.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms moving out Sunday night. Thunderstorms
are possible again Tuesday night into Wednesday, and again
Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Binau/Hickman
SHORT TERM...Binau/Hickman
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Binau
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
943 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017
.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017
Low pressure over southern Iowa and the central plains will move
across the great lakes Sunday pulling a trailing cold front southeast
across Indiana. Numerous thunderstorms will occur in a moist
unstable air mass ahead of the cold front late tonight into Sunday.
All of this will move out with the front Sunday night.
A weak upper disturbance will bring low chances of showers northern
sections Monday afternoon and widely scattered thunderstorms to
north and central sections Tuesday afternoon.
A progressive pattern with several weak upper disturbances will
occur during the latter half of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /Overnight/...
Issued at 943 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017
Surface analysis late this evening shows a trough of low pressure
in place from Michigan to Nrn Missouri. GOESR shows THunderstorms
blossoming ahead of the trough over northern Illinois...pushing
eastward.
A few more hours of dry weather will be anticipated across Central
Indiana...however HRRR suggest the storms over Illinois will
propagate eastward toward Central Indiana. Favorable environment
remains over Central Indiana with dewpoints in the upper 60s and
low 70s. SPC mesoscale graphic suggests CAPE around 1500 J/KG.
Models suggest favorable lower level shear across the area
overnight developing ahead of the approaching storms. Thus will
ramp up pops overnight as storms are expected to arrive. Given
the expected rain...trended lows a bit cooler than the previous
forecast across the NW parts of the forecast area...where cooler
temps are most likely due to expected precipitation.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Sunday Night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017
A cold front over southeast Indiana Sunday evening will continue
to the east as high pressure over the northern plains builds our
way. A few showers will linger into Sunday evening over southeast
sections...then dry and cooler Sunday night and early Monday.
Models indicate a few showers over northern sections Monday
afternoon as an upper trough over the great lakes becomes a
little sharper and combined with some day time heating. A
weak upper disturbance will bring widely scattered thunderstorms
to northern and central sections late Tuesday.
Stayed close to a MOS blend on temperatures with highs in the
upper 70s to near 80 Monday and lower 80s Tuesday. Lows will
be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017
The long term begins with an upper trough stretching south through
the area from an upper low over eastern Canada. This feature will
lift northeast away from the area and allow for a flatter upper
pattern to develop and a broad upper ridge to stretch across
across the southern U.S. This will keep some chances for
thunderstorms in the forecast most of the time from Wednesday
night onward. Expect to see high temperatures climbing on Thursday
and topping out in the middle 80s to lower 90s. With the
relatively flat pattern may see those temperatures as the rule for
highs, but differences in the pattern between the ECMWF and GFS
indicate potential for dropping heights (ECMWF) and rising heights
(GFS) and thus split them to determine the current forecast with
temperatures that are a degree or two cooler than Thursday but
still mainly in the middle 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for the 18/00Z TAFs/...
Issued at 711 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017
VFR will predominate much of the TAF period, although MVFR
conditions will be possible in convection and during and shortly
after frontal passage late in the period.
Convection is developing over the Mississippi Valley at this time
and may consolidate and move toward the sites later this evening,
with the most likely time for onset of storms ranging from 04-08Z.
MVFR conditions may occur in storms and there will likely be a
period of MVFR ceilings around frontal passage before conditions
improve back to VFR late in the period.
Winds will be southerly early in the period, and become
west/northwesterly with frontal passage. Speeds will generally be
8-12KT with a few gusts possible, especially in storms.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...Puma
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
831 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017
Warm and humid airmass will remain in place across the area into
Sunday, allowing for favorable conditions for showers and
thunderstorms. Some of the storms may reach severe limits later
this evening into the overnight hours. A cold front will move
through by Sunday night and bring cooler and less humid air to the
area into mid week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 828 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017
Just minor adjustments to earlier fcst grids this eve. Focus remains
on severe potential overnight. Sct sub-svr storms along wk
boundaries over nwrn portions of the cwa this eve with showers
associated with vort max movg through the east. Upstream, stronger
convection over nwrn IL appears to be organizing into a line. Latest
HRRR/RAP suggests this line will sweep east across our cwa late this
eve and overnight as stronger 0-6km shear pushes east. Moderate
instability around (1500j/kg) fcst across wrn portion of the area as
the line moves in with less instability to the east. So, still
appears svr storms psbl with damaging winds the main threat. Perhaps
a bit lower threat in the east, but given the strong shear moving
in, storms may transition to a well organized line/bow by the
time they reach the east, so not discounting damaging wind threat
there either.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017
Very difficult forecast with models offering only limited help as
combinations of a handful of boundaries, MCVs and periodic cloud
cover all confusing models.
MCV tracked from N Illinois into Lower Michigan along a warm front
allowing for some showers and storms to form there. Area has been
high and dry through the day as subsidence was holding strong with
little more than some low topped cu near the lake shore area where
differential thermal boundary appears to reside. Boundary appears to
exist from northern Illinois back into SE Iowa where cu development
was picking up and some initiation was under way in a weakly capped
and unstable environment (per 18Z DVN/ILX soundings) with around
2000 j/kg of SBCAPE (lower than many models are depicting). Few
showers now forming NW of Indy working NE on edge of what could be
increasing theta E and weakening cap across the area. Therefore
despite model suggestions of little/no chance for precip, lowered
pops somewhat but still maintained slgt chc /chc pops into early
evening before main show tries to take place to the west.
Leading edge of upper level trough was entering western Iowa
bringing increasing height falls and dynamics which should help
coverage and intensity of storms increase. However, confidence in
impacts to the east remain low as majority of CAMs have shown at
best scattered showers/storms with some not even bringing any precip
in. New 18Z HRRR however may be trying to trend back to more a
broken line entering around/after 4z. General consensus was to drop
any categorical pops in place but hold with likely with a delay in
arrival as well as departure. Storms should enter at least 1000-2000
j/kg of SBCAPE and increasing unidirectional shear to allow some
continued organization if they can maintain themselves. While
somewhat reluctant, did maintain severe wording in the grids with
damaging winds again the main threat. Greatest wind threat appears
to be well SW of the area where better EML will exist. Forecast will
likely undergo further updates as convective trends take shape.
SWOMCD just issued to our immediate west.
Front will be slow to exit on Sunday with pops lingering into the
east areas into the afternoon. Convection may wane but refire again
as heating takes place in at least a moderately unstable airmass.
SPC Day 2 outlook expanded marginal risk back to the west a touch
which appears reasonable.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017
Only minor changes to long term with main focus on convective
potential into tonight. Cold front should be generally clear of the
forecast area by late Sunday night with cooler and less humid
conditions settling in for a few days. Weak disturbances will rotate
around the upper low resulting in a few chances for mainly diurnal
showers/few storms given cold air aloft.
Upper level heights will begin to increase by mid week and allow
more of an upward trends in temps. Chances for precip will still
linger along the front as it works north. Highs will climb back to
more normal levels with humidity level increasing. Pattern will
remain somewhat unsettled as wave train continues with said frontal
boundary likely to wobble north and south.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 633 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017
Wk vort max over central IN causing sct shra lifting into nern IN
which should impact FWA early in the period with potentially
brief heavy ra and mvfr vsby. Shra/TS also has developed along a
a sfc boundary oriented parallel to mean flow from sw MI into nw
IN which will prbly impact SBN early this eve. Again, brief mvfr
conditions psbl as shra move through. Latest HRRR suggests more
robust convection along cdfnt over ern IA will move east across
nrn IN overnight, psbly accompanied by strong/gusty winds and
brief low flight conditions. MVFR strato cu expected in vcnty of
the cdfnt as it moves through Sunday morning, mixing out to vfr
with gusty west winds in the aftn.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...Fisher
SHORT TERM...Fisher
LONG TERM...Fisher
AVIATION...JT
Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx
Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1007 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
An offshore high/inland trough pattern will prevail through the
weekend. A cold front will approach from the northwest early
next week, then stall and dissipate midweek. An offshore
high/inland pattern returns Thursday through next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 1005 PM Saturday...Precipitation has ended across land
areas with loss of heating this evening. A few showers and a
couple of thunderstorms are occurring offshore and the latest
HRRR and RAP indicates that a few showers/storms could skirt the
coast in the overnight hours. As a result, have a slight chance
PoP near the coast after midnight, with nil PoPs inland.
Another warm night with deep southerly flow with lows in the
lower to mid 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM Saturday...Models indicate little change in
surface and upper level patterns, but do show less convective
coverage inland with deeper moisture axis shifting north and
east of area with slightly stronger short wave in the morning.
This is in line with previous forecast thinking of mainly
20%-40% POPs, higher along coast in morning and then inland
during afternoon. Convective indices similar to today and
generally not supportive of severe storms. Max temps near 90
inland with 80s coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Another week of unsettled weather across Eastern NC with rounds of
daily showers and thunderstorms. A weakening cold front will provide
more widespread showers and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday.
Then an offshore high/inland trough pattern returns Thursday through
next weekend.
Sunday night and Monday night... South-southwest winds increase
as surface gradient tightens ahead of the approaching cold
front. This will draw in an increase of tropical moisture into
the region with PW values over 2 inches casing the increase
chances of showers and thunderstorms. Strong to sever
thunderstorms are possible as conditions will be favorable as
0-6km shear increases throughout the day, with MUCAPE reaching
near 3500 J/kg. Most of the unstable conditions wil be west and
north of Eastern NC where forcing is best. This analysis
supports the SPC Day 3 Outlook...for Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms. Expect highs in the upper 80s inland and low/mid
80s along the beaches. Overnight lows in the 70s.
Tuesday through Wednesday...Showers and thunderstorms will continue
Tuesday and Wednesday as models continue to show the cold front will
move into the Central NC before it stalls (around I-95) and then
weakens/dissipates. Additional showers and thunderstorms will
occur again Wednesday afternoon as the mid/upper trough axis
moves across Eastern NC. Winds shear is forecasted to increase
to values near 30 knots Increased 0-6 km wind shear values 25-30
kt, and MUCAPEs 1500- 2000 J/kg, signal a threat for some
strong to severe storms again. High temps will be relatively
cool Tuesday with highs mostly in the low 80s. Wednesday, temps
are expected to reach into the mid 80s inland and low 80s along
the coast.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through 00Z Monday/...
As of 710 PM Saturday...VFR conditions are likely for most of
this TAF cycle. Light southerly winds will produce mixing in the
boundary layer and a veil of mid/high clouds may also preclude
much in the way of fog development late tonight. Another warm
humid day on Sunday will lead to afternoon convection with
decent instability expected and will have VCTS at all TAF sites
during Sunday afternoon. Southerly winds may gust to 15 knots at
times Sunday afternoon as well.
Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 PM Sat... VFR conditions through early Monday and
then sub-VFR conditions are possible afterwards as more
scattered showers and thunderstorms occur each day due the
approaching cold front. Patchy fog in the late night/early
morning will be possible, especially in areas that received
rainfall the previous day. VFR conditions will return Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Sunday/...
As of 1010 PM Saturday...Some minor tweaks to the winds this
update as S/SW winds continue at 15-20 knots on the Sounds a d
northern/central waters. Seas continue at 4-5 feet with long
period swell energy of 15-17 seconds continuing. Guidance
indicates that the winds should subside a bit overnight. Winds
will again increase to 10-20 KT again Sunday afternoon.
NWPS and WW3 both initialized well and elevated heights will
continue into Sunday morning, then expected to briefly subside
during afternoon.
Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 PM Sat... Southwest winds will prevail over the coastal
waters through the period, ranging between 10 to 20 kts, except for
Monday afternoon/night as winds increase to 15-25 knots. Seas will
generally be 3-5 ft, except Monday and Tuesday as Small Craft
Advisory is possible over the central waters as seas will build 6
ft.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for NCZ095-098-
103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM/BM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CTC/JBM/BM
MARINE...CTC/JBM/BM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
828 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017
.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The overnight forecast is in good shape. High resolution models
are showing showers and thunderstorms moving into northwestern
middle Tennessee around day break. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue to spread north and east through the day on Sunday.
Did make an update to the current forecast. A cluster of showers
and thunderstorms in Calloway County...KY are dieing as they move
east but have moved into northwest middle TN. Since the overnight
forecast hadn/t account for this development included a chance
for Stewart County for the next couple of hours. The HRRR shows
these showers dieing off rapidly with the sunset. Will end up
doing one more update once everything dies off. At one point in
time this cluster of thunderstorms was dropping 2+ inches of rain
per hour. No threat for middle TN.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Difficult forecast this TAF period with significant uncertainties
on timing of TSRA. Current TSRA west of CKV not expected to cause
impacts. A decaying MCS coming from the northwest to bring some
SHRA/VCTS to airports Sunday morning with scattered but more
likely TSRA expected Sunday afternoon and evening. Predominate
VFR conditions with light to moderate west to southwest winds this
TAF period with MVFR cigs/vis likely in TSRA.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......12
AVIATION........Shamburger
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
911 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017
.UPDATE...
Cancelled the heat headlines from earlier today.
Increased rain chances and lowered overnight lows slightly
tonight in northern and central Oklahoma.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears to be increasing later
tonight in northern Oklahoma.
Latest radars at 905 pm indicated isolated to numerous
thunderstorms near a developing surface cold front in southern
Kansas. Think this activity will slowly increase in coverage over
the next hour or so and continue to move south/southeast and into
northern Oklahoma between 10 pm and midnight. One or more
complexes of storms may materialize from this activity in the next
several hours and at least impact locations in the latest SPC Day
1 Outlook area, north of a Buffalo to Fairview to Guthrie line.
Not sure how far south activity will get due to stronger capping
with unseasonably warm 700 mb temperatures +14 to +17C ahead of
the approaching cold front.
Due to rather high instability (MUCAPE 3000-6000 J/kg) and
sufficient shear (0-6 km shear 30-45 kt) according to latest RAP
model analysis, a mixture of supercells and multicells can be
expected tonight. Think the main mode of storms in northern
Oklahoma will multicell clusters and lines that will generally
move southeast. With DCAPE values 1000-1800 J/kg and multicells as
the dominant storm mode, think damaging winds would be the main
hazard with storms later tonight in northern Oklahoma with a lower
potential for large hail and a very low potential for tornadoes.
If storms train over the same areas, heavy rainfall and flash
flooding would be possible as the air is quite moist (precipitable
water values generally 1.2-1.7" and surface dewpoints in the
lower to mid 70s.
The storms will push an outflow boundary/effective surface cold
front southward quickly tonight, allowing for breezy to windy and
cooler conditions to move into Oklahoma tonight as well as
western north Texas towards sunrise. Some models have been hinting
that gradient north to northeasterly surface winds (even away from
thunderstorms) may approach Wind Advisory criteria with gusts 40
to 50 mph later tonight in western Oklahoma and western north
Texas. For now, will not issue a Wind Advisory as not sure how
strong the surface winds will be behind the outflow
boundary/effective surface cold front.
Products will be updated shortly.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 651 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017/
DISCUSSION...
The 00Z aviation discussion follows....
AVIATION...
A strong cold front across Kansas at 00Z will advance south across
Oklahoma and north Texas overnight and into Sunday morning. Strong
and severe thunderstorms have already begun along this front, and
they are expected to continue to accompany the front...or lag
behind it by a few hours...through much of the evening and
overnight period. Also overnight, a layer of stratocumulus is
expected to form with bases at about 2,500 ft behind the front.
These ceilings will generally last about 3 to 5 hours at each
site, excluding KGAG/KWWR and KPNC. There may be a rather extended
period of thunderstorms at KPNC. Guidance is somewhat mixed
regarding the KPNC experience this evening/overnight, but storms
will probably arrive around 04Z and may continue to as late as 11
or 12Z. Warm mid-level temperatures will likely limit the south
and west extent of the overnight storms, so TSRA are unlikely at
all sites other than KPNC, but it will be a close call for KGAG,
KWWR, KOKC, and KOUN. Storms may form late in the day Sunday
around KSPS and possibly KLAW.
CmS
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017/
DISCUSSION...
Effects of dissipating MCS over southeast Oklahoma having much
greater influence on forecast. We will be removing heat advisory for
far southeast Oklahoma where stratus and cirrus have and will keep
temperatures from reaching advisory criteria even though we will see
two or three more hours of rising temperatures. Anomalously high
dewpoints will allow us to keep much of central Oklahoma with
headlines despite temperatures failing to reach forecast highs.
Southeast parts of Lincoln county will not come close to excessive
heat advisory but northwest parts of the county are near or above
105 right now. Therefore we will leave excessive heat area as is.
MCS will also allow farther west lower level thermal/instability
axis but near record 800-650mb temps across much of the region will
keep westward extent of convection in check tonight. As s/wv trough
approaches Central and Southern Plains tonight along with strong
frontal boundary, another MCS appears likely to affect at least
north-central and northeast portions of Oklahoma. With the mentioned
very warm mid-level temperatures, believe it will be very hard to
get convection west of I-35 but will include low POPs across central
Oklahoma for the overnight period given uncertainty of impacts of
mentioned outflow boundary. With mid-level temperatures quickly
cooling tomorrow, in concert with lower level heating and
convergence near slowing frontal boundary near Red River Valley,
will keep chances for storms Sunday and Sunday night across southern
Oklahoma and adjacent northern Texas. Greater coverage will likely
be over southeast portions of Oklahoma and may linger into Monday.
After much cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday, warming trend with
humid conditions and return to southerly flow expected next week.
Building southwest U.S. upper ridge will keep influence of
convection mainly to our north through the week with inconsistent
signals and agreement in extended models.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 70 85 63 87 / 20 30 10 0
Hobart OK 72 87 64 89 / 10 10 10 10
Wichita Falls TX 75 89 67 90 / 0 20 30 10
Gage OK 68 84 60 86 / 20 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 68 84 60 87 / 60 20 0 0
Durant OK 75 88 68 89 / 10 40 40 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
17/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
642 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017
No big changes planned. A few storms have developed along a sfc
front from central KS into nw MO/southern IA. HRRR indicates
strong instability ahead of the front this evening 3000-4000 j/kg
mlcape with a strong wind/hail threat. The wind threat will
increase as storms organize into a line along the front later this
evening. Timing? Could see storms into our nw counties by 9-10 pm,
but will monitor. Would anticipate a convective/svr tstm watch
before that time, but nothing has been coordinated as of yet.
Watches are out to the west and northwest.
Heat advisory will expire at 7 pm. Never really panned out with
cloud cover today.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017
A cirrus shield which remained from overnight thunderstorms has
acted to keep temperatures a bit cooler early this afternoon.
However, this shield continues to thin out and shift south. Thus,
temperatures will have no problem creeping up into the upper 80s
and lower 90s by late this afternoon. Meanwhile, dew points are
also recovering after the morning storms with some moisture
pooling noted along the I-35 corridor in Kansas. Expectations are
for dew points to rise a degree or two as we get into late this
afternoon. Overall, we have lowered expected maximum heat indices
3-5 degrees over most areas. With that being said, we will be
dropping the Excessive Heat Warning and replacing that area with a
Heat Advisory. We will also trim a bit off of the existing Heat
Advisory.
Meanwhile, our eyes will be peeled on the I-70 corridor from late
this afternoon into this evening. Explosive thunderstorm
development will occur as a cold front translates south across
that area. Extreme instability and high theta-e differentials
between the surface and 10 kft agl will support strong cold pools
and very gusty winds with these storms as they congeal into a
line. Damaging wind gusts to 70 mph appear quite possible as this
squall line quickly moves south into central Missouri later this
evening. We may also see some large hail with a few of the
stronger updrafts.
This line will then continue to quickly move south and is expected
to reach the I-44 corridor somewhere in the 10 PM to 2 AM time
frame. By this time, these storms will be strongly outflow
dominant and should begin to slowly weaken. That slow weakening
trend will then continue as these storms push into south-central
Missouri late tonight. While these storms will be rather
progressive, we will have to watch west-central Missouri and
southeastern Kansas for a flash flood risk given the recent heavy
rainfall across that area.
Showers and thunderstorms will then end from north to south across
the Ozarks on Sunday as that cold front shifts south of the
region. A cooler and drier air mass will also begin filtering into
the area with highs Sunday afternoon around 80 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017
Northwesterly flow aloft will set up over the region early next
week with surface high pressure building in from the Plains. This
will result in a dry start to the work week along with below
normal temperatures.
The upper level flow will flatten a bit by midweek which will
result in a slow return to heat and humidity. Highs by Wednesday
should again push the 90 degree mark. We may see a few weak
ripples of energy ride through the region from mid to late week.
These could provide a chance at more showers and storms, however
confidence is on the low side.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017
KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A cold front will bring strong thunderstorms
into the area early in the taf period with strong winds and areas
of mvfr/ifr visibility in heavy showers. Showers/tstms will linger
behind the wind shift for a period of time, and will need to
monitor for lower cat cloud ceilings, but for now ceilings are
vfr. Should see drier air and vfr conditions for latter portions
of the taf period.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-077-078-
088-089-093-094.
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DSA
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...DSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
858 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017
.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the previous forecast below appear
necessary. Scattered convection has diminished this evening. The
HRRR indicates that some isolated, weak convection could redevelop
late tonight in portions of southeast Alabama, so we left the 20
PoP in that area. Some patchy fog is also possible late tonight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [724 PM EDT]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
A broken line of showers and thunderstorms resulting from the trough
of low pressure to the west continues to move eastward across the
region at this hour. Given pockets of drier air at mid-levels, these
storms have been producing generally sub-severe wind gusts in the 40
to 45 mph range thus far this afternoon resulting from wet
microbursts. A few weaker thunderstorms may redevelop behind the
ongoing line this afternoon, with any activity quickly diminishing
after sunset. Given the afternoon rainfall, patchy fog is not out of
the question during the overnight hours. Overnight lows will bottom
out in the lower 70s inland and mid 70s along coastal locales.
.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
The upper level trough across the southeast weakens overnight with
the axis of the upper level ridge over the Atlantic nosing back into
the CWA. At the surface, the CWA also remains on the western edge of
the ridge. For Sunday will see more normal summertime precipitation
chances, in the slight chance to chance range. Guidance starts to
diverge on Monday in regards to the tropical disturbance expected in
the Gulf. The GFS brings the low and moisture northward on Monday
whereas the ECWMF and UKMET keep the disturbance further south and
west. While the track will have more significant impacts on the
long term forecast, regardless of the ECMWF/UKMET or the GFS
solution, should see an increase in moisture and PoPs for Monday
into Monday night.
.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
Large differences exist between model solutions and the positioning
of the tropical disturbance in the long term. The GFS brings the
system into the eastern/central Gulf with impacts to the CWA,
however the ECMWF keeps the system south and pushes it into the
western Gulf, with little impact to the CWA. Have trended toward the
ECWMF solution and while it does bring some increased moisture to
the CWA early in the week, it is drier for the second half of the
week. If the ECMWF solution does verify, the PoP forecast for the
second half of the week may be high. While the forecast leans toward
the solution of the tropical disturbance remaining well south and
west of the area, if the GFS solution were to verify, much more rain
would be expected and this would have to be watched closely in
regards to the flood potential.
.AVIATION [Through 00Z Monday]... The remaining few showers should
dissipate shortly after sunset. With the rainfall this afternoon,
expect fog to form, especially in the eastern half of the area
around 09Z. MVFR visibilities are expected at ABY, TLH and VLD.
Confidence was not high enough to include DHN and ECP at this
time. Fog should clear by 15Z with afternoon thunderstorms
possible again tomorrow.
.MARINE...
Those with marine interests need to pay close attention to the
forecast over the next few days. Light southerly winds are expected
through through tomorrow, however a tropical disturbance is
expected in the Gulf of Mexico early this week and will increase
winds and seas. While the forecast is based on the disturbance
moving into the western Gulf, there is still the potential for it
to move northward and affect the marine area early to mid week.
.FIRE WEATHER...
The afternoon seabreeze will bring an increase in onshore winds
along the coastline for the next few afternoons, along with
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Fuel moisture and relative
humidity remain on the higher end, precluding hazardous fire weather
conditions.
.HYDROLOGY...
Around 1-2 inches of rain is expected through mid week. With
locally heavy rain, localized, urban flooding cannot be ruled out.
Area rivers though are expected to be able to handle these
amounts. The uncertainty in regards to hydrology comes in next
week in regards to the tropical disturbance. There is a lot of
uncertainty in the model guidance at this point and forecast leans
towards drier solution that would suggest no flooding issues.
However, if the wetter solution were to verify, then the flooding
potential would have to be monitored very carefully.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 71 91 72 88 73 / 10 30 30 40 40
Panama City 75 85 74 86 75 / 10 30 20 40 40
Dothan 71 89 72 89 72 / 20 30 10 40 30
Albany 71 91 73 90 73 / 10 20 20 40 40
Valdosta 71 92 73 90 73 / 10 30 30 50 40
Cross City 71 90 73 88 73 / 10 40 40 50 50
Apalachicola 75 87 75 86 75 / 10 20 30 40 50
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...Pullin
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...Weston
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Fieux