Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/18/17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
230 PM AKDT Sat Jun 17 2017 .DISCUSSION... As mentioned in previous discussion the overall upper level weather pattern is in good agreement within 24hrs but then only general agreement 48 to 60 hours or through Monday night. Even though the track of the upper level low across the North Slope may differ in the models and the ECMWF kicks out the low to the Arctic more quickly than previous solution, the overall pattern continues with unsettled weather across the Interior and North Slope. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range: As typical the main issue will be the returning fog and low stratus. Expecting that there will be fog of half mile visibilities from Barrow eastward, with concentrated area of quarter mile visibilities or less from Deadhorse to Kaktovik. Visibilities should improve recover quickly on Sunday morning. Expect rain and snow showers to move northward along the Western Brooks Range and extend from Cape Lisburne to Barrow by Sunday morning. Looking further into Monday into Tuesday the easterly winds will begin to increase once again along the Beaufort Sea, particularly for Point Thompson east. West coast and western Interior: Expect fog to redevelop over the west coast, with quarter mile or less of visibility Kotzebue Sound (mainly from Kivalina to Kotzebue). Expect areas near Deering and Shishmaref to have more off shore flow so the fog is not expected to be as low or push into the villages. Although initial thinking is that the visibility would not be dense, the HRRR model shows a smaller area of quarter mile or less specifically in the Kotzebue to Kivalina area. Otherwise expect scattered showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms this evening, as we already see development and lightning strikes from satellite imagery from Anvik toward Huslia. As the trough axis pushes west there will be a more widespread shower activity across Western Interior to West Coast from Scammon Bay to north of the Seward Peninsula. Central and eastern Interior: Continued moist southwest flow above the thermal trough will result in scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Starting to see breakup in clouds in the eastern Interior, particularly southeast east of the greater Fairbanks, as the greater potential for thunderstorms along a line form Chalkyitsik to Beaver to Minto to McGrath. Some of the thunderstorms may produce heavy downpours, gusty winds and small hail. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible again on Sunday, mainly along the thermal trough that runs from Arctic Village to Holy Cross as it shifts further into western Interior. Should continue to see a warming trend in temperatures tomorrow and Monday for much of the Interior. Monday there will be some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, particularly along the thermal trough from Eagle to Fairbanks. Shower activity will be limited midweek as a ridge builds over the eastern Interior for most areas. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .FIRE WEATHER...Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to continue across the area this afternoon and evening mainly along the thermal trough. Already several lightning strikes from Huslia to south of Arctic Village and Eagle. The greatest potential for thunderstorms today will be along and near a line from Chalkyitsik to Beaver to Minto to McGrath. On Monday the best chances for thunderstorms will be along a line from Eagle to Fairbanks. Relative humidity values will be above 30 percent for most locations today and tomorrow. A warming drying trend is expected tomorrow and Monday but will only see minimum relative humidity values to reach into mid to upper 20s along the Canadian border on Monday. && .HYDROLOGY...although there was decent rain amounts of 0.50 to 0.75 inches across the area with the thunderstorms, it was rather spotty and widespread was more of hundredth to tenth of an inch. No hydro concerns. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ220. && $$ JUN 17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
916 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 916 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 Relatively insignificant changes were made with this update cycle, mainly to accommodate convective coverage and intensity which is diminishing even a bit faster than earlier anticipated. Diabatic cooling and earlier convective outflows and overturning have all acted to reduce bouyancy and thus the depth and persistence of most individual updrafts since 00 UTC. UPDATE Issued at 554 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 This update incorporated recent trends in radar imagery and CAMs through the 21 UTC HRRR into the hourly PoP forecast this evening. In general, we expect low-topped convection to slowly diminish the next few hours as low-level cooling reduces MLCAPE that`s been on the order of 500 J/kg this afternoon. However, the CAM suites are supportive of isolated to scattered showers continuing in central ND overnight as a quasi-stationary frontal zone becomes oriented north-south across that area. Otherwise, we believe the threat of non-supercell tornadoes has diminished considerably now that the afternoon convection has dispersed ambient low-level vorticity in the vicinity of the weak wind shift that extends from near Watford City to Bismarck and Jamestown as of 22 UTC. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 Isolated severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening, favoring the James River Valley; otherwise numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms continue with atmospheric conditions favorable for brief funnels and/or landspout tornadoes through early evening. After collaborating with Rapid City Forecast Office, will cancel the wind advisory in the far southwest as winds have not materialized to advisory criteria thus far. There are indications that advisory level winds might still be possible in southern Bowman County this evening, but we can handle it with a special weather statement if need be. Currently, large scale ascent sliding from north central ND into the James River valley, (ahead of a mid/upper level shortwave trough), will slide atop a stalled frontal boundary which is stretched out from near Williston to Hazen, and into Jamestown. SPC mesoanalysis continues to advertise widespread Non-Supercell Tornadic Parameter values between 1 and 3 north of the frontal boundary. Effective Bulk Shear has shown weakening trends across the James River Valley over the last few hours, as the bullseye of 30kt to 40kt effective bulk shear is now located in southeastern ND. The latest RAP forecast shows this trend continuing into 00z Sunday, away from the James River Valley. If this holds true, then would expect once the convection behind the current boundary arrives late this afternoon, the mode of convection would mimic pulse like thunderstorms like we have been observing. The potential for brief funnels/landspouts remains the main concern given the strength of the low level instability and surface vorticity, in combination with weak effective shear mentioned above. Ascent begins to wane by 06z Sunday, thus after sunset, areal coverage of convection and intensity should begin to shrink/weaken. Isolated showers will linger past midnight central ND, with drier conditions west. For Sunday, another shortwave trough embedded within northwest flow and cyclonic curvature will impact the Turtle Mountains south through the James River Valley with scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly during the afternoon and early evening. Not expecting severe thunderstorms at this time as CAPE values look to range between 500-1000J/Kg/, thus weak instability, along with 0-6km bulk shear of 20kt, weak shear. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 Overall a northwest flow dominates under a persistent upper low/trough continuing to reside over Ontario, Canada. This is disrupted briefly at times, especially Tuesday/Wednesday when zonal flow returns. Thereafter, cyclonic curvature dominates again with northwest flow and periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms. For Monday, the far north central and Turtle Mountains will be on the fringes of some showers and thunderstorms as a shortwave trough slides through the northwest flow. For Tuesday night, a warm front/cold front slide through via the westerly flow, still possibly impacting northern ND and into the northern James River Valley. The warmest air will arrive with the zonal flow Tuesday/Wednesday with highs in the lower to mid 80s southwest and south central. Highs in the 70s return Thursday through Saturday with the northwest flow aloft along with periodic showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 916 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 A few showers will linger across central ND through Sunday, with a few thunderstorms also possible again Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, MVFR stratus will likely form in central ND tonight and linger into Sunday morning. There`s a high probability of MVFR ceilings impacting KMOT and KJMS, and a chance they will affect KBIS, too. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CJS SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...KS AVIATION...CJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
605 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 ...Updated Aviation... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 Main concern is severe convection and strong cold front winds tonight. An impressive strong jet streak was moving across the Northern Rockies impinging on the Northern Plains today. 400mb jet core was around 100 knots moving across Wyoming late this morning. This intense jet and storm system will result in a rather strong cold front for mid-June across western Kansas later this afternoon/evening. Convective outflow from the overnight MCS across eastern KS altered the surface flow field somewhat, however synoptic influences with the approaching jet streak should readjust the flow field with a bit of a cyclonic center developing just ahead of the surface cold front across west-central KS early this evening. This is where the best chance for a vigorous thunderstorm will develop, and there is growing agreement among various convective-allowing models of this occurring across southwest KS. The latest runs of the HRRR even suggest a supercell structure is not out of the question. There will certainly be strong enough mid and upper level winds to support a supercell right along or immediately ahead of the cold front. The cold front itself should have a very healthy density current head with it, as it charges south early this evening. This alone will lead to 25 to 40 mph winds in the region of strongest pressure rises. Add vigorous deep moist convection to the equation and and the wind potential goes up dramatically -- perhaps peak gusts in the 70-80mph range in an isolated location tied to the strongest severe storm. Of course, as with any supercell storm, very large hail will also be expected. Severe weather threat will exit the southwest KS region in the 04-06z time frame with a much cooler airmass in place. Not much to worry about in the forecast for tomorrow. A very pleasant day forecast with fresh airmass in place -- dewpoints in the 40s and temperatures topping out around 80 most areas. We just have to get through tonight! .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 After this weekend, we will gradually return to a summer pattern as a 594 dam 500mb high expands across the Desert Southwest region. The expansion of the high will lead to a more anticylonically curved mid level flow pattern out of the northwest across western Kansas. The main polar jet will shift north to the international border with negligible forcing for ascent for organized convective weather. This is why POPs are generally low next week, although widely scattered storms can be expected with surface lee trough setups that occur. The next bonafide polar front will most likely not be until late next week when the Desert Southwest high flattens out as the jet stream shift slightly south. There is a lot of uncertainty, of course, regarding any front timing and strength that far out. Wednesday and Thursday look to be the hottest days coming up with 100-degree highs in the forecast again. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 605 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 A strong cold front will sweep through this evening, ushering in convection and strong NE winds. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and included TEMPO groups when impacts are most probable at each terminal. Primary threat from storms this evening will be strong wind gusts, possibly exceeding 50 kts with the strongest storms. HRRR model generates a line of convection from roughly HYS to LBL 01-02z, with a thunderstorm complex exiting the P28 vicinity around 04z. Even outside of convection, NE winds will be very strong for several hours this evening, with an unusually strong pressure gradient for June. NE wind gusts of 35-40 kts can be expected, with areas of blowing dust reducing visibility. North winds will diminish rapidly late tonight through Sunday morning. VFR is expected Sunday, with light north winds around 10 kts and much cooler temperatures. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 62 82 61 87 / 30 0 0 0 GCK 61 82 59 89 / 30 0 0 0 EHA 60 83 60 90 / 10 0 0 0 LBL 64 83 62 90 / 20 0 10 0 HYS 60 80 59 87 / 40 0 0 10 P28 65 84 61 88 / 50 10 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Umscheid LONG TERM...Umscheid AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1031 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a weak cold front/surface trough positioned over eastern WI early this afternoon. Cu has been building through the day along the front, and wouldnt be surprised to see a few showers pop up. Cu is more robust over northern WI and the Upper Peninsula, where showers appear to be a slightly better bet though. Looking to the west, showers and thunderstorms are popping along a cold front over northern Minnesota. Scattered showers and storms are also pushing east over the northern Plains ahead of a potent shortwave trough. As this trough moves east across the region tonight, precip trends are the main forecast concern. Tonight...The strong shortwave trough will continue to move east and into the region late this evening and overnight. Meanwhile, the cold front over Minnesota will slide southeast into northern WI late tonight. Lingering daytime instability may still contribute to isolated showers/storms over northern WI early in the evening. But the latest short term guidance indicates that more widespread shower and isolated thunderstorms will push into central and north-central WI from the west by 02-04z. Elevated instability by this time will be up to 500 j/kg, so think severe chances are very low. Track of the shortwave and associated deformation zone will call for the heaviest precip north and west of the Fox Valley late tonight. Amounts could reach up to an inch over north-central WI, which will exacerbate the higher water levels on area rivers. Precip does not appear to make it into eastern WI until after midnight, and should be considerably less than areas to the northwest. Low temps ranging from the mid 50s north to low to mid 60s south. Sunday...The shortwave will swing northeast across the area during the morning before exiting in the afternoon. Widespread rain will be ongoing across northern WI for much of the morning before exiting early in the afternoon. However, a trailing shortwave interacting with minor instability could still lead to scattered showers during the rest of the afternoon over much of the area. Much cooler highs ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s. .LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 The long term will feature off and on showers and thunderstorm chances as the Great Lakes region remains in a NW flow regime, with waves of energy rotating around the upper trough over eastern Ontario. Hard to time the best chances for precip, so will continue to feature chance or slight chance POPs from Sunday night through Tuesday. Models showing the upper pattern becoming more zonal on Wednesday, with brief ridging building over the western Great Lakes, which looks to provide the best chance for a dry day. However, models showing a wave crossing near the Canadian border that could touch of an area of showers and storms later on Wednesday. Again, timing these features this far out is a challenge, but will try to get at least a couple dry periods Tuesday night into Wednesday, then bring back chances for rain/storms on Wednesday into Wednesday night. Northwest flow will keep temps below normal through mid-week then near or slightly above normal temps should return toward the end of the week. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 Showers and scattered thunderstorms will increase across the region as a strong upper level disturbance moves through. Ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR/IFR over north central and central WI late, and visibilities will be reduced at times due to steadier/heavier rainfall. Improving conditions expected after 18Z Sunday, but low clouds possible late Sunday night. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......Bersch AVIATION.......JKL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
907 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... It will be warm and humid overnight as southerly flow continues. A cold front will move east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Sunday into Sunday night, resulting in showers and thunderstorms. Cooler, but near normal conditions, will return behind the front for the beginning of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Shearing MCV that is now crossing into Ohio from Indiana caused a brief uptick in showers across eastern IND into NW Ohio but this activity is on the wane as the MCV continues to deamplify and it further elongates. Attention of course turns to expanding convection over IL/IA/MO and trying to decide what coverage/impacts this convection will have later on in the night for the WFO ILN CWA. 18.00Z sounding from KILN was modestly unstable /SBCAPE to 1700 J/kg/ albeit with very weak shear /effective shears below 20kts/. Lapse rates aloft were underwhelming severe weather sounding for late June. However...upstream /KILX/ sounding had decidedly stronger mid level flow and thus effective shear with similar instability...and storms per radar mosaics in IL showing some structure/organization as forced ascent increases there amidst shortwave trough energy. Up until about 22Z...just about every stormscale model run from the past 12 hours had shown current IA/IL activity would split with a line segment across northern IND/southern MI, and a much beefier segment sinking southeast along the ribbon of extreme instby well to our SW. However...more recent HRRR runs have shown a little stronger/deeper push of convection into west central Ohio after 2 AM with the northern line there is still concern for an isolated strong/severe threat in this area overnight. very low on how this all materializes through the night considering increased forced ascent and flow battling instby toward the bottom of the diurnal cycle. Any strong/severe threat would be wind-based, as low level shear remains generally weak and instby likely not robust enough to support large hail. Forecast update focused on generally adding detail to rain chances and timing...focusing a higher chance across west central ohio in the 2-4 AM timeframe /could be a stronger storm here/. Then general increases in rain chances over the rest of the west 1/3 of the CWA very late in the night as the northeastern fringe of the southern line may attempt to move into southeast Indiana/nrn KY/swrn OH after 4 or 5 AM. This not likely to be strong/severe. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... On Sunday, the cold front will move east/southeast into our area. Convection allowing models suggest that showers/storms may first develop near the frontal boundary across our west by early afternoon, followed by perhaps another area in a prefrontal convergence region over our east. As such, have likely PoPs for showers/storms west, with categorical PoPs for the eastern zones. Best instability will be over the east, with at least moderate deep layer shear expected. This will provide the possibility for storms to become strong/severe. Again, best threat for severe storms is poised for our eastern zones. Damaging winds will be the main severe weather threat with the possibility of isolated large hail. With pwat values approaching 2 inches (150-175% of normal for mid June), locally heavy rain will be a concern along with subsequent flooding issues. Will mention all these threats in the HWO. Synoptic scale winds will pick up due to diurnal mixing and a tightening pressure gradient. Highs will range from the lower 80s west to the mid/upper 80s east. For Sunday night, the front will make its way east/southeast, and should be just about out of the area by 12Z Monday. Likely/categorical PoPs should push east/southeast during the evening, followed by a lingering chance of showers for the main overnight hours. Lows will range from the lower 60s northwest to the upper 60s southeast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At the onset of the forecast period, a cold front will be east of and moving away from the forecast area, with just a slight chance of a lingering shower in the southeast at daybreak. Upper level trough digs in behind the surface front and some instability showers appear to be in the offing for the afternoon, particularly along the I-70 corridor closer to the "cooler" air aloft. The air behind the front will be nicely cooler and right at or just below seasonal normals through about Wednesday night. The best part of this particular forecast is dewpoints in the upper 50s to around 60 through this time, increasing late next week as surface flow turns southerly and the upper level flow becomes more zonal. With the increasing surface moisture, southwest flow, and higher propensity for disturbances to be passing over the region in the zonal upper flow, precipitation chances increase accordingly. This may begin as early as Wednesday night as a warm front appears to be noted in the European model. Beyond this, a broad-brush approach was used to denote the higher chances for thunderstorm potential. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Showers associated with a weakening/shearing mesoscale convective vortex over eastern Indiana will remain north/west of the terminals this evening. Just some brief mid cloud under some thin cirrus for the next 6-9 hours. Later tonight...after about 06Z...confidence deteriorates with regards to how upstream convection over Iowa/Illinois moves and how it holds together. Latest storm scale models are inconsistent on whether terminals see any thunderstorms in the 06Z-12Z timeframe. Continued to play a dry forecast through 12Z based on the amalgam of data, with VFR conditions continuing. Should convection hold together, most likely impacted terminal would be KDAY with some MVFR restrictions and some gusty winds. On Sunday morning...approach of cold front should act to thicken clouds/lower cigs somewhat while showers/storms begin to develop and increase in coverage/intensity. Bulk of activity is expected in the afternoon hours and given high available moisture a direct hit by a thunderstorm core would almost certainly bring IFR vsby/cigs for a brief time, but with confidence low on specific timing, but high on coverage of showers/storms, will go with prevailing showers and VCTS with MVFR restrictions. Front will swing east by early evening bringing an end to any showers/storms. Winds tonight will remain above 8kts in most locations as southwesterly flow maintains ahead of approaching cold front. Gusty swly winds to continue on Sunday in advance of the front, with 20+kt gusts likely at all sites immediately ahead of the front. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms moving out Sunday night. Thunderstorms are possible again Tuesday night into Wednesday, and again Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Binau/Hickman SHORT TERM...Binau/Hickman LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Binau
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
943 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 .UPDATE... The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 325 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 Low pressure over southern Iowa and the central plains will move across the great lakes Sunday pulling a trailing cold front southeast across Indiana. Numerous thunderstorms will occur in a moist unstable air mass ahead of the cold front late tonight into Sunday. All of this will move out with the front Sunday night. A weak upper disturbance will bring low chances of showers northern sections Monday afternoon and widely scattered thunderstorms to north and central sections Tuesday afternoon. A progressive pattern with several weak upper disturbances will occur during the latter half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /Overnight/... Issued at 943 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 Surface analysis late this evening shows a trough of low pressure in place from Michigan to Nrn Missouri. GOESR shows THunderstorms blossoming ahead of the trough over northern Illinois...pushing eastward. A few more hours of dry weather will be anticipated across Central Indiana...however HRRR suggest the storms over Illinois will propagate eastward toward Central Indiana. Favorable environment remains over Central Indiana with dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s. SPC mesoscale graphic suggests CAPE around 1500 J/KG. Models suggest favorable lower level shear across the area overnight developing ahead of the approaching storms. Thus will ramp up pops overnight as storms are expected to arrive. Given the expected rain...trended lows a bit cooler than the previous forecast across the NW parts of the forecast area...where cooler temps are most likely due to expected precipitation. && .SHORT TERM /Sunday Night through Tuesday/... Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 A cold front over southeast Indiana Sunday evening will continue to the east as high pressure over the northern plains builds our way. A few showers will linger into Sunday evening over southeast sections...then dry and cooler Sunday night and early Monday. Models indicate a few showers over northern sections Monday afternoon as an upper trough over the great lakes becomes a little sharper and combined with some day time heating. A weak upper disturbance will bring widely scattered thunderstorms to northern and central sections late Tuesday. Stayed close to a MOS blend on temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 Monday and lower 80s Tuesday. Lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/... Issued at 220 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 The long term begins with an upper trough stretching south through the area from an upper low over eastern Canada. This feature will lift northeast away from the area and allow for a flatter upper pattern to develop and a broad upper ridge to stretch across across the southern U.S. This will keep some chances for thunderstorms in the forecast most of the time from Wednesday night onward. Expect to see high temperatures climbing on Thursday and topping out in the middle 80s to lower 90s. With the relatively flat pattern may see those temperatures as the rule for highs, but differences in the pattern between the ECMWF and GFS indicate potential for dropping heights (ECMWF) and rising heights (GFS) and thus split them to determine the current forecast with temperatures that are a degree or two cooler than Thursday but still mainly in the middle 80s. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 18/00Z TAFs/... Issued at 711 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 VFR will predominate much of the TAF period, although MVFR conditions will be possible in convection and during and shortly after frontal passage late in the period. Convection is developing over the Mississippi Valley at this time and may consolidate and move toward the sites later this evening, with the most likely time for onset of storms ranging from 04-08Z. MVFR conditions may occur in storms and there will likely be a period of MVFR ceilings around frontal passage before conditions improve back to VFR late in the period. Winds will be southerly early in the period, and become west/northwesterly with frontal passage. Speeds will generally be 8-12KT with a few gusts possible, especially in storms. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH NEAR TERM...Puma SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...CP AVIATION...NIELD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
831 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 347 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 Warm and humid airmass will remain in place across the area into Sunday, allowing for favorable conditions for showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms may reach severe limits later this evening into the overnight hours. A cold front will move through by Sunday night and bring cooler and less humid air to the area into mid week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 828 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 Just minor adjustments to earlier fcst grids this eve. Focus remains on severe potential overnight. Sct sub-svr storms along wk boundaries over nwrn portions of the cwa this eve with showers associated with vort max movg through the east. Upstream, stronger convection over nwrn IL appears to be organizing into a line. Latest HRRR/RAP suggests this line will sweep east across our cwa late this eve and overnight as stronger 0-6km shear pushes east. Moderate instability around (1500j/kg) fcst across wrn portion of the area as the line moves in with less instability to the east. So, still appears svr storms psbl with damaging winds the main threat. Perhaps a bit lower threat in the east, but given the strong shear moving in, storms may transition to a well organized line/bow by the time they reach the east, so not discounting damaging wind threat there either. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 347 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 Very difficult forecast with models offering only limited help as combinations of a handful of boundaries, MCVs and periodic cloud cover all confusing models. MCV tracked from N Illinois into Lower Michigan along a warm front allowing for some showers and storms to form there. Area has been high and dry through the day as subsidence was holding strong with little more than some low topped cu near the lake shore area where differential thermal boundary appears to reside. Boundary appears to exist from northern Illinois back into SE Iowa where cu development was picking up and some initiation was under way in a weakly capped and unstable environment (per 18Z DVN/ILX soundings) with around 2000 j/kg of SBCAPE (lower than many models are depicting). Few showers now forming NW of Indy working NE on edge of what could be increasing theta E and weakening cap across the area. Therefore despite model suggestions of little/no chance for precip, lowered pops somewhat but still maintained slgt chc /chc pops into early evening before main show tries to take place to the west. Leading edge of upper level trough was entering western Iowa bringing increasing height falls and dynamics which should help coverage and intensity of storms increase. However, confidence in impacts to the east remain low as majority of CAMs have shown at best scattered showers/storms with some not even bringing any precip in. New 18Z HRRR however may be trying to trend back to more a broken line entering around/after 4z. General consensus was to drop any categorical pops in place but hold with likely with a delay in arrival as well as departure. Storms should enter at least 1000-2000 j/kg of SBCAPE and increasing unidirectional shear to allow some continued organization if they can maintain themselves. While somewhat reluctant, did maintain severe wording in the grids with damaging winds again the main threat. Greatest wind threat appears to be well SW of the area where better EML will exist. Forecast will likely undergo further updates as convective trends take shape. SWOMCD just issued to our immediate west. Front will be slow to exit on Sunday with pops lingering into the east areas into the afternoon. Convection may wane but refire again as heating takes place in at least a moderately unstable airmass. SPC Day 2 outlook expanded marginal risk back to the west a touch which appears reasonable. && .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 347 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 Only minor changes to long term with main focus on convective potential into tonight. Cold front should be generally clear of the forecast area by late Sunday night with cooler and less humid conditions settling in for a few days. Weak disturbances will rotate around the upper low resulting in a few chances for mainly diurnal showers/few storms given cold air aloft. Upper level heights will begin to increase by mid week and allow more of an upward trends in temps. Chances for precip will still linger along the front as it works north. Highs will climb back to more normal levels with humidity level increasing. Pattern will remain somewhat unsettled as wave train continues with said frontal boundary likely to wobble north and south. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening) Issued at 633 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 Wk vort max over central IN causing sct shra lifting into nern IN which should impact FWA early in the period with potentially brief heavy ra and mvfr vsby. Shra/TS also has developed along a a sfc boundary oriented parallel to mean flow from sw MI into nw IN which will prbly impact SBN early this eve. Again, brief mvfr conditions psbl as shra move through. Latest HRRR suggests more robust convection along cdfnt over ern IA will move east across nrn IN overnight, psbly accompanied by strong/gusty winds and brief low flight conditions. MVFR strato cu expected in vcnty of the cdfnt as it moves through Sunday morning, mixing out to vfr with gusty west winds in the aftn. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JT SYNOPSIS...Fisher SHORT TERM...Fisher LONG TERM...Fisher AVIATION...JT Visit us at Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1007 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An offshore high/inland trough pattern will prevail through the weekend. A cold front will approach from the northwest early next week, then stall and dissipate midweek. An offshore high/inland pattern returns Thursday through next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 1005 PM Saturday...Precipitation has ended across land areas with loss of heating this evening. A few showers and a couple of thunderstorms are occurring offshore and the latest HRRR and RAP indicates that a few showers/storms could skirt the coast in the overnight hours. As a result, have a slight chance PoP near the coast after midnight, with nil PoPs inland. Another warm night with deep southerly flow with lows in the lower to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM Saturday...Models indicate little change in surface and upper level patterns, but do show less convective coverage inland with deeper moisture axis shifting north and east of area with slightly stronger short wave in the morning. This is in line with previous forecast thinking of mainly 20%-40% POPs, higher along coast in morning and then inland during afternoon. Convective indices similar to today and generally not supportive of severe storms. Max temps near 90 inland with 80s coast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Another week of unsettled weather across Eastern NC with rounds of daily showers and thunderstorms. A weakening cold front will provide more widespread showers and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday. Then an offshore high/inland trough pattern returns Thursday through next weekend. Sunday night and Monday night... South-southwest winds increase as surface gradient tightens ahead of the approaching cold front. This will draw in an increase of tropical moisture into the region with PW values over 2 inches casing the increase chances of showers and thunderstorms. Strong to sever thunderstorms are possible as conditions will be favorable as 0-6km shear increases throughout the day, with MUCAPE reaching near 3500 J/kg. Most of the unstable conditions wil be west and north of Eastern NC where forcing is best. This analysis supports the SPC Day 3 Outlook...for Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms. Expect highs in the upper 80s inland and low/mid 80s along the beaches. Overnight lows in the 70s. Tuesday through Wednesday...Showers and thunderstorms will continue Tuesday and Wednesday as models continue to show the cold front will move into the Central NC before it stalls (around I-95) and then weakens/dissipates. Additional showers and thunderstorms will occur again Wednesday afternoon as the mid/upper trough axis moves across Eastern NC. Winds shear is forecasted to increase to values near 30 knots Increased 0-6 km wind shear values 25-30 kt, and MUCAPEs 1500- 2000 J/kg, signal a threat for some strong to severe storms again. High temps will be relatively cool Tuesday with highs mostly in the low 80s. Wednesday, temps are expected to reach into the mid 80s inland and low 80s along the coast. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through 00Z Monday/... As of 710 PM Saturday...VFR conditions are likely for most of this TAF cycle. Light southerly winds will produce mixing in the boundary layer and a veil of mid/high clouds may also preclude much in the way of fog development late tonight. Another warm humid day on Sunday will lead to afternoon convection with decent instability expected and will have VCTS at all TAF sites during Sunday afternoon. Southerly winds may gust to 15 knots at times Sunday afternoon as well. Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 330 PM Sat... VFR conditions through early Monday and then sub-VFR conditions are possible afterwards as more scattered showers and thunderstorms occur each day due the approaching cold front. Patchy fog in the late night/early morning will be possible, especially in areas that received rainfall the previous day. VFR conditions will return Thursday. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Sunday/... As of 1010 PM Saturday...Some minor tweaks to the winds this update as S/SW winds continue at 15-20 knots on the Sounds a d northern/central waters. Seas continue at 4-5 feet with long period swell energy of 15-17 seconds continuing. Guidance indicates that the winds should subside a bit overnight. Winds will again increase to 10-20 KT again Sunday afternoon. NWPS and WW3 both initialized well and elevated heights will continue into Sunday morning, then expected to briefly subside during afternoon. Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 330 PM Sat... Southwest winds will prevail over the coastal waters through the period, ranging between 10 to 20 kts, except for Monday afternoon/night as winds increase to 15-25 knots. Seas will generally be 3-5 ft, except Monday and Tuesday as Small Craft Advisory is possible over the central waters as seas will build 6 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for NCZ095-098- 103-104. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM/BM NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...BM AVIATION...CTC/JBM/BM MARINE...CTC/JBM/BM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
828 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... The overnight forecast is in good shape. High resolution models are showing showers and thunderstorms moving into northwestern middle Tennessee around day break. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread north and east through the day on Sunday. Did make an update to the current forecast. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms in Calloway County...KY are dieing as they move east but have moved into northwest middle TN. Since the overnight forecast hadn/t account for this development included a chance for Stewart County for the next couple of hours. The HRRR shows these showers dieing off rapidly with the sunset. Will end up doing one more update once everything dies off. At one point in time this cluster of thunderstorms was dropping 2+ inches of rain per hour. No threat for middle TN. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. Difficult forecast this TAF period with significant uncertainties on timing of TSRA. Current TSRA west of CKV not expected to cause impacts. A decaying MCS coming from the northwest to bring some SHRA/VCTS to airports Sunday morning with scattered but more likely TSRA expected Sunday afternoon and evening. Predominate VFR conditions with light to moderate west to southwest winds this TAF period with MVFR cigs/vis likely in TSRA. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......12 AVIATION........Shamburger
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
911 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 .UPDATE... Cancelled the heat headlines from earlier today. Increased rain chances and lowered overnight lows slightly tonight in northern and central Oklahoma. && .DISCUSSION... Severe thunderstorm potential appears to be increasing later tonight in northern Oklahoma. Latest radars at 905 pm indicated isolated to numerous thunderstorms near a developing surface cold front in southern Kansas. Think this activity will slowly increase in coverage over the next hour or so and continue to move south/southeast and into northern Oklahoma between 10 pm and midnight. One or more complexes of storms may materialize from this activity in the next several hours and at least impact locations in the latest SPC Day 1 Outlook area, north of a Buffalo to Fairview to Guthrie line. Not sure how far south activity will get due to stronger capping with unseasonably warm 700 mb temperatures +14 to +17C ahead of the approaching cold front. Due to rather high instability (MUCAPE 3000-6000 J/kg) and sufficient shear (0-6 km shear 30-45 kt) according to latest RAP model analysis, a mixture of supercells and multicells can be expected tonight. Think the main mode of storms in northern Oklahoma will multicell clusters and lines that will generally move southeast. With DCAPE values 1000-1800 J/kg and multicells as the dominant storm mode, think damaging winds would be the main hazard with storms later tonight in northern Oklahoma with a lower potential for large hail and a very low potential for tornadoes. If storms train over the same areas, heavy rainfall and flash flooding would be possible as the air is quite moist (precipitable water values generally 1.2-1.7" and surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. The storms will push an outflow boundary/effective surface cold front southward quickly tonight, allowing for breezy to windy and cooler conditions to move into Oklahoma tonight as well as western north Texas towards sunrise. Some models have been hinting that gradient north to northeasterly surface winds (even away from thunderstorms) may approach Wind Advisory criteria with gusts 40 to 50 mph later tonight in western Oklahoma and western north Texas. For now, will not issue a Wind Advisory as not sure how strong the surface winds will be behind the outflow boundary/effective surface cold front. Products will be updated shortly. MBS && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 651 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017/ DISCUSSION... The 00Z aviation discussion follows.... AVIATION... A strong cold front across Kansas at 00Z will advance south across Oklahoma and north Texas overnight and into Sunday morning. Strong and severe thunderstorms have already begun along this front, and they are expected to continue to accompany the front...or lag behind it by a few hours...through much of the evening and overnight period. Also overnight, a layer of stratocumulus is expected to form with bases at about 2,500 ft behind the front. These ceilings will generally last about 3 to 5 hours at each site, excluding KGAG/KWWR and KPNC. There may be a rather extended period of thunderstorms at KPNC. Guidance is somewhat mixed regarding the KPNC experience this evening/overnight, but storms will probably arrive around 04Z and may continue to as late as 11 or 12Z. Warm mid-level temperatures will likely limit the south and west extent of the overnight storms, so TSRA are unlikely at all sites other than KPNC, but it will be a close call for KGAG, KWWR, KOKC, and KOUN. Storms may form late in the day Sunday around KSPS and possibly KLAW. CmS PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017/ DISCUSSION... Effects of dissipating MCS over southeast Oklahoma having much greater influence on forecast. We will be removing heat advisory for far southeast Oklahoma where stratus and cirrus have and will keep temperatures from reaching advisory criteria even though we will see two or three more hours of rising temperatures. Anomalously high dewpoints will allow us to keep much of central Oklahoma with headlines despite temperatures failing to reach forecast highs. Southeast parts of Lincoln county will not come close to excessive heat advisory but northwest parts of the county are near or above 105 right now. Therefore we will leave excessive heat area as is. MCS will also allow farther west lower level thermal/instability axis but near record 800-650mb temps across much of the region will keep westward extent of convection in check tonight. As s/wv trough approaches Central and Southern Plains tonight along with strong frontal boundary, another MCS appears likely to affect at least north-central and northeast portions of Oklahoma. With the mentioned very warm mid-level temperatures, believe it will be very hard to get convection west of I-35 but will include low POPs across central Oklahoma for the overnight period given uncertainty of impacts of mentioned outflow boundary. With mid-level temperatures quickly cooling tomorrow, in concert with lower level heating and convergence near slowing frontal boundary near Red River Valley, will keep chances for storms Sunday and Sunday night across southern Oklahoma and adjacent northern Texas. Greater coverage will likely be over southeast portions of Oklahoma and may linger into Monday. After much cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday, warming trend with humid conditions and return to southerly flow expected next week. Building southwest U.S. upper ridge will keep influence of convection mainly to our north through the week with inconsistent signals and agreement in extended models. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 70 85 63 87 / 20 30 10 0 Hobart OK 72 87 64 89 / 10 10 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 75 89 67 90 / 0 20 30 10 Gage OK 68 84 60 86 / 20 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 68 84 60 87 / 60 20 0 0 Durant OK 75 88 68 89 / 10 40 40 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 17/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
642 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 No big changes planned. A few storms have developed along a sfc front from central KS into nw MO/southern IA. HRRR indicates strong instability ahead of the front this evening 3000-4000 j/kg mlcape with a strong wind/hail threat. The wind threat will increase as storms organize into a line along the front later this evening. Timing? Could see storms into our nw counties by 9-10 pm, but will monitor. Would anticipate a convective/svr tstm watch before that time, but nothing has been coordinated as of yet. Watches are out to the west and northwest. Heat advisory will expire at 7 pm. Never really panned out with cloud cover today. && .SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 A cirrus shield which remained from overnight thunderstorms has acted to keep temperatures a bit cooler early this afternoon. However, this shield continues to thin out and shift south. Thus, temperatures will have no problem creeping up into the upper 80s and lower 90s by late this afternoon. Meanwhile, dew points are also recovering after the morning storms with some moisture pooling noted along the I-35 corridor in Kansas. Expectations are for dew points to rise a degree or two as we get into late this afternoon. Overall, we have lowered expected maximum heat indices 3-5 degrees over most areas. With that being said, we will be dropping the Excessive Heat Warning and replacing that area with a Heat Advisory. We will also trim a bit off of the existing Heat Advisory. Meanwhile, our eyes will be peeled on the I-70 corridor from late this afternoon into this evening. Explosive thunderstorm development will occur as a cold front translates south across that area. Extreme instability and high theta-e differentials between the surface and 10 kft agl will support strong cold pools and very gusty winds with these storms as they congeal into a line. Damaging wind gusts to 70 mph appear quite possible as this squall line quickly moves south into central Missouri later this evening. We may also see some large hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. This line will then continue to quickly move south and is expected to reach the I-44 corridor somewhere in the 10 PM to 2 AM time frame. By this time, these storms will be strongly outflow dominant and should begin to slowly weaken. That slow weakening trend will then continue as these storms push into south-central Missouri late tonight. While these storms will be rather progressive, we will have to watch west-central Missouri and southeastern Kansas for a flash flood risk given the recent heavy rainfall across that area. Showers and thunderstorms will then end from north to south across the Ozarks on Sunday as that cold front shifts south of the region. A cooler and drier air mass will also begin filtering into the area with highs Sunday afternoon around 80 degrees. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 Northwesterly flow aloft will set up over the region early next week with surface high pressure building in from the Plains. This will result in a dry start to the work week along with below normal temperatures. The upper level flow will flatten a bit by midweek which will result in a slow return to heat and humidity. Highs by Wednesday should again push the 90 degree mark. We may see a few weak ripples of energy ride through the region from mid to late week. These could provide a chance at more showers and storms, however confidence is on the low side. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A cold front will bring strong thunderstorms into the area early in the taf period with strong winds and areas of mvfr/ifr visibility in heavy showers. Showers/tstms will linger behind the wind shift for a period of time, and will need to monitor for lower cat cloud ceilings, but for now ceilings are vfr. Should see drier air and vfr conditions for latter portions of the taf period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-077-078- 088-089-093-094. KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101. && $$ UPDATE...DSA SHORT TERM...Schaumann LONG TERM...Schaumann AVIATION...DSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
858 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 .UPDATE... No significant changes to the previous forecast below appear necessary. Scattered convection has diminished this evening. The HRRR indicates that some isolated, weak convection could redevelop late tonight in portions of southeast Alabama, so we left the 20 PoP in that area. Some patchy fog is also possible late tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION [724 PM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... A broken line of showers and thunderstorms resulting from the trough of low pressure to the west continues to move eastward across the region at this hour. Given pockets of drier air at mid-levels, these storms have been producing generally sub-severe wind gusts in the 40 to 45 mph range thus far this afternoon resulting from wet microbursts. A few weaker thunderstorms may redevelop behind the ongoing line this afternoon, with any activity quickly diminishing after sunset. Given the afternoon rainfall, patchy fog is not out of the question during the overnight hours. Overnight lows will bottom out in the lower 70s inland and mid 70s along coastal locales. .SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]... The upper level trough across the southeast weakens overnight with the axis of the upper level ridge over the Atlantic nosing back into the CWA. At the surface, the CWA also remains on the western edge of the ridge. For Sunday will see more normal summertime precipitation chances, in the slight chance to chance range. Guidance starts to diverge on Monday in regards to the tropical disturbance expected in the Gulf. The GFS brings the low and moisture northward on Monday whereas the ECWMF and UKMET keep the disturbance further south and west. While the track will have more significant impacts on the long term forecast, regardless of the ECMWF/UKMET or the GFS solution, should see an increase in moisture and PoPs for Monday into Monday night. .LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]... Large differences exist between model solutions and the positioning of the tropical disturbance in the long term. The GFS brings the system into the eastern/central Gulf with impacts to the CWA, however the ECMWF keeps the system south and pushes it into the western Gulf, with little impact to the CWA. Have trended toward the ECWMF solution and while it does bring some increased moisture to the CWA early in the week, it is drier for the second half of the week. If the ECMWF solution does verify, the PoP forecast for the second half of the week may be high. While the forecast leans toward the solution of the tropical disturbance remaining well south and west of the area, if the GFS solution were to verify, much more rain would be expected and this would have to be watched closely in regards to the flood potential. .AVIATION [Through 00Z Monday]... The remaining few showers should dissipate shortly after sunset. With the rainfall this afternoon, expect fog to form, especially in the eastern half of the area around 09Z. MVFR visibilities are expected at ABY, TLH and VLD. Confidence was not high enough to include DHN and ECP at this time. Fog should clear by 15Z with afternoon thunderstorms possible again tomorrow. .MARINE... Those with marine interests need to pay close attention to the forecast over the next few days. Light southerly winds are expected through through tomorrow, however a tropical disturbance is expected in the Gulf of Mexico early this week and will increase winds and seas. While the forecast is based on the disturbance moving into the western Gulf, there is still the potential for it to move northward and affect the marine area early to mid week. .FIRE WEATHER... The afternoon seabreeze will bring an increase in onshore winds along the coastline for the next few afternoons, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Fuel moisture and relative humidity remain on the higher end, precluding hazardous fire weather conditions. .HYDROLOGY... Around 1-2 inches of rain is expected through mid week. With locally heavy rain, localized, urban flooding cannot be ruled out. Area rivers though are expected to be able to handle these amounts. The uncertainty in regards to hydrology comes in next week in regards to the tropical disturbance. There is a lot of uncertainty in the model guidance at this point and forecast leans towards drier solution that would suggest no flooding issues. However, if the wetter solution were to verify, then the flooding potential would have to be monitored very carefully. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 71 91 72 88 73 / 10 30 30 40 40 Panama City 75 85 74 86 75 / 10 30 20 40 40 Dothan 71 89 72 89 72 / 20 30 10 40 30 Albany 71 91 73 90 73 / 10 20 20 40 40 Valdosta 71 92 73 90 73 / 10 30 30 50 40 Cross City 71 90 73 88 73 / 10 40 40 50 50 Apalachicola 75 87 75 86 75 / 10 20 30 40 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...DVD NEAR TERM...Pullin SHORT TERM...Fieux LONG TERM...Fieux AVIATION...Weston MARINE...Fieux FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...Fieux