Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/16/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
859 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 859 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017
Thunderstorms will continue to drift south and eventually away
from Chickasaw, Fayette, Clayton, and Grant Counties through 11
PM. Most of the MLCAPE has now pushed south of the forecast area
and with the thicker anvil and boundary pushing south across
northeast Iowa into far southwest Wisconsin, not expecting much
more activity outside of a stray shower or isolated thunderstorm.
It appears the severe weather threat has just about ended. Will be
holding onto the severe thunderstorm watch just a little bit
longer until the last batch of storms in Bremer and Buchanan
County in northeast Iowa weaken or shift well to the south. The
severe thunderstorm watch will likely be cancelled well before 1
AM for the La Crosse Forecast Area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017
At 3 PM, a weak boundary was located across central Iowa. Dew
points north of this boundary were in the lower and mid 50s and
around 60F south of it. The HRRR and RAP suggest this boundary
will slip northeast into northeast Iowa this afternoon and early
evening. As this occurs, the mean layer CAPES are forecast to
climb into the 500 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, a 500 to
700 mb speed max will increase the effective wind shear up to
60 knots. While the hodograph is favorable for splitting
supercells, any left movers will move quickly into a drier
environment, so their impact will be limited. Due to this, the SPC
1630Z Day 1 Convective Outlook moved the marginal risk up to the
Interstate 90 corridor and the slight risk into northeast Iowa and
a small portion of southwest Wisconsin. This risk is a very
conditional and highly dependent upon our dew points getting as
high as what the CAM models indicate (around 60F). If convection
can develop, the main severe weather threats would be large hail
and damaging wind (primarily based on the strong winds aloft and
inverted V in the sub-cloud layer).
From late Friday morning into Friday afternoon, another short
wave trough will move east through the region. The 0-1 km mean
layer CAPES climb into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. While the deep
layer shear is not that impressive, the 0-3 km shear does get into
the 25 to 35 knot range and there is an inverted V in the sub-
cloud layer, so maybe an isolated wind threat.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017
On Friday night, it continues to look like a mesoscale convective
complex will develop in western Iowa on the northern edge of an
unstable air mass (2-4K J/kg) in southwest Iowa. This system will
then track either southeast through southeast Iowa and northern
Illinois or dive south into the Ozarks. In either scenario, this
would push the front across Iowa much further south. This has
been a trend in the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM. If this does indeed
occur, the threat of severe weather for Saturday afternoon and
night will likely to shift further south. Even if this does
occurs, the combination of a coupled jet and strong short wave
trough will still produce showers and scattered storms across the
Upper Mississippi River Valley for Saturday afternoon and night.
On Sunday, wrap around moisture and cold air aloft will result in
the development scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Strong cold air advection in the wake of this system will bring
much colder air into the region. Temperatures on Sunday and Monday
will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s and then slowly moderate
as we move into mid week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 703 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Thunderstorms
are expected to remain well south of the TAF sites this evening,
across northeast Iowa and extreme southwest Wisconsin.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wetenkamp
SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...Boyne
AVIATION...Wetenkamp
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
849 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017
A few echoes showing up on radar over Weld County this evening,
but don`t believe much if anything is reaching the ground. High
and mid level clouds are increasing, with the CIRA Simulated WRF
showing some possible wave clouds later tonight between 08-12Z.
Added some additional sky cover to account for this. This may
keep lows near the southern foothills warmer than what we already
have in there, but will keep what is forecasted just in case they
are thinner. Also did minor adjustments to high temperatures
tomorrow, mainly in the high country after we warmed up a degree
or two over today`s forecasted highs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 343 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017
Warm dry air moving over Colorado in westerly flow aloft. There
will be bands of high clouds, mainly over the northern part of the
state, and some high-based afternoon cumulus clouds. Temperatures
should warm a little more on Friday despite a bit more cloud
cover. The only changes to the existing forecast were to add a
little more cloud cover and a little more wind for the mountains.
With a little more wind and heat Friday and slightly lower
humidities, there will be a few areas approaching Red Flag
criteria. This is mainly over the east slopes in places like
Fairplay and Georgetown that are prone to winds descending from
the higher mountains. With marginal conditions as well as
marginal fuel moisture we will not issue a warning.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 343 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017
A short wave trough embedded in the strong westerly flow will
race across the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains Friday night
and Saturday. Over Colorado, a weak west-northwest flow aloft will
prevail. A cold front will enter northeast Colorado late Saturday
morning and dive south through the state during the afternoon and
evening. Expect temperatures to stay steady or fall a little
behind the front Saturday afternoon, so the timing of the front
will affect high temperatures Saturday. Southern areas of the
forecast area will approach 90. Northern areas will cool off
sooner and expect lower 80s for highs. Moisture increases behind
the front with precipitable water values around an inch during the
late afternoon and evening over northeast Colorado. The increase
in moisture and northeast upslope flow behind the front is
expected to produce isolated thunderstorms. The lack of large
scale forcing and the warm air aloft will likely limit storm
coverage to isolated.
Sunday will be the cooler with highs in the 80s. Even though there
will be some moisture around on Sunday. A strongly capped airmass
will prevent showers/thunderstorms from forming.
Temperatures will warm next week as an upper level ridge builds over
the southwest part of the country. For Tuesday and Wednesday, high
temperatures are expected to be in the 90s. The ridges shifts
south, which may allow slightly cooler air into the area Thursday,
though highs will still be above normal with upper 80s to mid 90s
expected. Tough to tell if there will be enough moisture for
afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Models hint at isolated
convection Wednesday and Thursday, so will have low pops in the
forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 849 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017
VFR through Friday with ceilings above 12kft AGL. Winds in the
Denver area are taking slightly longer to transition to normal S/W
drainage winds. RAP and HRRR showing this will likely happen
between 04z and 06z now. Winds are expected to veer to the NW
Friday after 15Z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Meier
AVIATION...Kriederman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
930 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across the Gulf of Maine early this afternoon will
exit south of Nova Scotia this evening. An upstream warm front
and mid-level trough across western New York will bring
increasing clouds and periods of showers overnight into the day
Friday across northern New York and Vermont. Clouds will
generally keep temperatures in the 60s Friday afternoon.
Thereafter, increasing south to southwest flow will result in
building heat and humidity for the weekend, with highs in the
mid 80s on Saturday, and upper 80s to lower 90s on Sunday.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible both days. An approaching
cold front will bring the threat for strong to locally severe
thunderstorms on Monday, along with locally heavy rainfall with
very moist air mass in place ahead of the front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 930 PM EDT Thursday...Additional updates to massage pops
in closer agreement with latest HRRR output which has finally
begun to show current rainfall trends across northern NY
somewhat closer to reality. Still expecting majority of showers
to occur across northern NY through midnight, thereafter
spreading across central and northern VT into the overnight and
pre-dawn hours. Did opt to raise minimum temperatures slightly
in the Champlain Valley where increasing south to southwesterly
flow in the lower levels will foster increasing dewpoints and
warm advective processes overnight.
Prior discussion...
Shortwave trough crosses the Champlain Valley and nrn VT during
Friday morning, with additional showers producing up to 0.25"
additional rainfall. Best forcing shifts east aftn/evening hrs,
so should see diminishing PoPs but with lingering
stratus/stratocu Friday aftn. Right now, appears cloud cover
limits heating with highs only in the 60s, except lower 70s
across the St. Lawrence Valley. Will need to monitor as
additional sunshine late may allow temps to warm more than
currently indicated.
Deep-layer south to southwest flow in place Friday night, but in
the absence of much convergence/low-level forcing. Should be
relatively quiet with variably cloudy conditions as any
lingering -SHRA exit ern VT during the early evening period.
Lows Friday night generally lower 60s across the Champlain and
St. Lawrence Valleys, and 55-60F elsewhere across the CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...Warm front pushes across our
forecast area from West to East on Saturday and temperatures
will warm into the 80s across our forecast area. Upper level
ridge builds over our forecast area and 850 temps will reach the
upper teens supporting these high temps. There will be a chance
for some showers especially in the higher terrain with weak
shortwave energy passing overhead. A little bit of CAPE squeezes
into the Dacks and SLV so have continued with mention of some
thunder for Saturday afternoon. Warm air advection will continue
Saturday night and a mild night is on tap with mins only dipping
into the 60s to low 70s. Clouds with a chance for some showers
continues overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Thursday...Sunday and Monday will be an active
period of weather with showers and thunderstorms expected Sunday
and especially Monday with locally heavy rainfall possible with
a slow moving cold front. Sunday will be another very warm day
with continued warm air advection and 850 temps warming to
almost 20C. Temperatures will warm in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Surface low pressure system lifts from the Northern Great Lakes
to near James Bay by 00z Monday. Timing of cold front will still
be critical for potential for strong convective storms and
severe potential. Temperatures will warm into the mid 80s ahead
of the cold fropa especially across our Eastern zones. It
continues to look like some heavy rainers are possible with
pwats up around 2", but lack of rainfall the past couple weeks
may limit flash flood potential. Forecasters will continue to
monitor potential for both severe thunderstorms and flash
flooding with this system. The ECMWF is still a bit faster than
the GFS with timing of cold front on Monday. The GFS would
support potential for some stronger convection. Upper trof will
lag behind the surface front and keep some showers in the area
for Tuesday as well. The models diverge a bit beyond that
feature, but it looks like the weather will remain pretty active
through mid week. Temperatures will trend back towards seasonal
normals for the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...VFR conditions are in the forecast for
the next 24 hours though confidence in remaining VFR through the
entire period is low. Models having a very hard time handling
convective activity upstream and subsequently spread MVFR cigs
into the North Country overnight and into Friday. Based on
current satellite and radar trends though, feel this is very
overdone so have played a more optimistic card. Still will
likely see some light showers around through the period, but
flight restrictions should be limited.
Higher confidence in winds where variable at 5-10kts this
evening increase overnight with sustained winds 10-12kts or so,
and gusts 20-22kts at KPBG/KBTV during Friday morning with
increasing gradient flow.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...Patchy FG.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Monday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Likely TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Increasing southerly gradient winds will reach the 15-25kt
range (and Lake Wind Advisory criteria) beginning around 06Z
Friday. Winds peak at 20-30kts around daybreak Friday with
southerly low-level jet in place over Lake Champlain. Will see
winds gradually decrease during the daylight hours Friday. Waves
should peak 3-4ft across the northern end of the broad lake
during Friday morning.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...JMG/Banacos
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Lahiff
MARINE...Banacos
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1057 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move north of the area overnight. This will
keep the mention of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
into the weekend. A cold front will push through early next
week and lower the humidity and temperatures for the middle of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The line of heavy rain and thunderstorms that moved into the
Central Mountains has transitioned into a general area of
moderate to heavy rain with just some embedded thunderstorms.
The HRRR after significant having run to run inconsistencies
seems to be settling into a solution where the showers continue
to move across and begin to become less organized as we move
into early Friday morning.
Additional showers moving into Somerset and Cambria counties
will move over rain soaked grounds so a new Flood Advisory was
issued for that area. The heaviest rains have fallen, but areas
that got hit hard earlier could warrant additional flood
headlines depending on the evolution of the new convection
moving through my SWRN zones,
Another muggy night is in store with temperatures and dewpoints
in the low to mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Showers/storms are more than likely tonight for most of the
area. The SE may continue to stay dry all night. The threat for
heavy rain is greatest tonight when the deep moisture plume gets
farther into the area. Thus far, it has remained to our west.
The 1.5+" PWATs will be in place and there will be a period of
time this evening and early tonight when the relative inflow of
moisture will match/balance the storm motion. This can lead to
heavy rainers. But, with no specific locations primed with very
wet soil, still some time to go, and some uncertainty of where
heavy rain is most likely, no flash flood watch will be issued
on this shift. The day shift will have a better look at it as
the meso models/CAMs begin to reach into that time frame. At
this point, the NAM drops point amounts of 2+" QPF in the W and
NC mtns. The GFS is lower and more washed out on the QPF
amounts. Will hold basin-average QPF to around an inch total in
the west and NC mtns. Will continue to mention heavy rain in the
wx grids.
The most potent trough aloft will be off to the east by sunrise,
and forcing wanes. But, lingering boundaries could be foci for
SHRA/TSRA on Fri. The LI`s don`t get negative in the northeast
on Fri per the NAM and GFS, but dewpoints still high in the east
and south, and the CAPE is again progged to be above
1000joules. Will continue to mention thunder with the entire
area in general thunder on the SPC Day2 prog. Expect temps to be
a little warmer on Friday in the west where it may dry out in
the afternoon. The sparse coverage of showers/storms on Friday
should preclude any further worries of flooding.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Model and ensemble guidance remain in good agreement on the
development of a modestly strong mid/upper level trough over the
Great Lakes by Monday, with multiple waves progressing around
the base of the trough and ejecting northeast into Canada. The
most likely period for showers and thunderstorms (Sun-Mon) will
focus along the associated surface cold front which is progged
to slowly push southeast and reach the Mid Atlantic coast by
20/12z. Precipitation will be focused mainly to the west of the
Appalachians on Sunday before shifting east on Monday. Temperatures
are fcst to trend above average over the weekend with max
readings in the mid 80s to low 90s on Sunday. Max heat index is
projected to reach the mid/upper 90s across portions of the mid-
lower Susquehanna Valley. Unlike the recent heat episode, the
duration of hot temperatures will be shorter and last 2 days at
most (limited area-SEPA). Lower humidity and near average
temperatures are likely following the cold frontal passage into
the middle part of next week. Another shortwave is fcst to
rotate through the trough around midweek before the upper level
pattern turns more zonal by the end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The Thunderstorms have all but ended, though rumble is possible
along a cluster moving over the Laurels. Showers continue across
most of central PA. Cigs have already begun to slowly
deteriorate as BFD, JST and AOO are experiencing periods of IFR
cigs and VSBYS. Deteriorating cigs will spread over the Western
and central TAF sites tonight. The moist southeast flow coupled
with rainfall from earlier today, and residual showers affect
the region. Expect IFR cigs at times at BFD, JST AOO and UNV to
be possible until Friday morning.
Conditions will slowly improve, with JST and BFD probably
holding onto restricting conditions until around 15Z. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms is possible late tomorrow
morning.
.OUTLOOK...
Fri...Low cigs, showers/tstorms possible, mainly in the AM.
Sat...AM fog possible.
Sun...Patchy AM fog poss east. PM tsra impacts poss west.
Mon and Tue...Tsra impacts possible.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-025-033-034.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Gartner
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Ceru/Gartner
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
910 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017
.UPDATE...
Minor adjustment to raise convective chances out west into the
chance category, as cluster of strong to severe storms near
Abilene continue to their march south-east along and just west of
the Colorado River Valley, along a strong instability axis.
Though CIN continues to increase with nightfall, cannot rule out
some scattered coverage S of I-20 and west of U.S. 281 from
Stephenville to Lampasas. Nothing severe, as this complex will
encounter a more stable and drier mid level environment to it`s
east with time through midnight CDT.
Cannot rule out some very gusty winds with very warm conditions
below the EML, but nothing severe is expected across our western
counties.
05/
&&
.UPDATE... /Issued 738 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017/
A quick update to mainly trim evening low convective chances from
everywhere outside of areas west of U.S. 281 from Jacksboro to
Stephenville just before midnight. None of this activity is
expected to be severe. Though the elevated mixed layer (EML or
cap) is slightly more elevated and weaker than 24 hours ago,
no surface focus is evident across our northeast counties. Any
activity that does get into our far western counties just before
midnight will likely be weakening quickly due to moving away from
strong instability out west and encountering the aforementioned
EML.
Otherwise, have left pre-dawn low convective chances going
for areas north of I-20, though upwind corfidi vector prognosis
indicates a southeast movement of current QLCS across southeast
Kansas. There is enough instability that a cold pool could
develop, but this is uncertain at this time. In addition, these
storms will encounter a weakening and veering low level jet just
before sunrise, along with a more dry and stable environment. Main
threat with any early morning storms will be lightning strikes
and possibly localized gusty winds 35-45 mph with any stronger
activity that maintains.
Heat index values will push the bottom limits of a heat advisory
criteria Friday afternoon from DFW to the Red River. However,
Saturday looks to be of higher concern and more widespread, as
hotter high temperatures with brief strengthening of the upper
ridge combine with continued highs dew pts in the upper 60s to
middle 70s. Our overnight crew will take another run on actual
forecast dew points and heat index values, then make a determination
for any heat advisories either for both days (Friday/Saturday) or
just for Saturday.
05/
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 656 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017/
/00z TAFs/
The benign weather pattern will persist across North Central Texas
through Friday, as upper level ridging and subsidence holds sway. As
has been the case for the past few days, scattered thunderstorms
have again developed along the dryline over West Texas late this
afternoon. The trajectory of these storms would theoretically
bring them into the western sections of North Texas by 05z, and
the HRRR guidance is actually advertising this. However, the cap
remains pretty strong in this area and there isn`t a compelling
moisture or instability feature to support the maintenance of this
activity into Western N TX. Regardless, any storms that do survive
will remain well W of the DFW-area or Waco TAF sites this evening,
and would only affect the Bowie/Glen Rose corner posts at most.
Otherwise, an area of low level stratus will again develop and
drift northward to near a Lampasas-Waco-Palestine line by 12z
Friday. MVFR ceilings will be persistent along and south of this
line during the 10z-15z timeframe, with a brief period of BKN012
conditions expected at Waco within this window. No low clouds are
expected farther N at the DFW-area sites. Typical daytime mixing
will yield scattered cumulus clouds across the area after 15-16z.
With a very steady state surface pattern in place, winds are
expected to remain southerly at speeds of 10-15kts through Friday
night.
Bradshaw
&&
.DISCUSSION... /Issued 327 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017/
Our attention over the next 18 hours will be focused on two main
areas that may bring rain to parts of North Texas tonight and/or
Friday morning. Storm development is already occurring in the
Texas Panhandle and in Central Kansas, both on the north-
northeast side of the upper level ridge. The storms in the
Panhandle are developing along the dryline which is not expected
to move much farther east. However, the mean wind flow will carry
these storms to the east and southeast. Similar to yesterday
evening, these storms may approach our western counties but they
should be weakening and dissipating as they approach our western
border. However, will keep a mention of low rain chances in our
far north and northwest counties tonight.
The storms in Central Kansas seem quite a bit far north to track
into Texas, but we will be watching the progress of this complex.
There is a considerable spread between the models on where this
complex will track, but Corfidi vectors for forward propagating
MCS activity support a track overnight to the south or south-
southeast. In addition, an axis of higher instability is forecast
to remain across Oklahoma, which the MCS should favor, and its
movement will also be aided by a disturbance moving south.
However, as the MCS moves south it will encounter a dry and capped
atmosphere that may quickly result in a diminishing of the rain
activity. But, at least part of the complex could clip our
northeast counties starting early Friday morning and have kept low
PoPs in that area for this reason. Have also carried low PoPs
through Friday morning mainly east of the Interstate 35 corridor.
For the afternoon hours, will retain a dry forecast, but any
remnant mesoscale boundaries may warrant an inclusion of PoPs,
most likely across the eastern half of the region. If any storms
develop Friday afternoon, they could be strong with gusty winds
and small hail.
The remainder of the weekend should be dry and hot with
temperatures reaching just above 100 degrees in our western
counties. Heat index values on Saturday may warrant a Heat
Advisory with values at or above 105 degrees for approximately
half of the region, including Waco and the DFW Metroplex. We will
continue to monitor this trend through Friday night.
On Sunday, the upper level ridge will still be anchored to our
west, but a front will move into the region. The timing of the
front will likely be in the afternoon or evening hours, so the
day time will still be hot in the 90s. The front isn`t expected to
push all the way through Central Texas, but will stall and quickly
retreat north on Tuesday. With the front will come a chance for
rain. Best rain chances will be Sunday night with some lingering
activity on Monday, in particular where the stalled boundary will
be located. If the front does push farther south or if convection
along the front pushes the front farther south, we could have a
drier forecast on Monday.
Low rain chances may linger across parts of the region much of
next week depending on the upper level pattern, but discrepancies
between the larger scale features lean us towards a dry forecast
for now.
JLDunn
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 97 78 98 78 / 20 20 5 0 0
Waco 77 96 77 97 77 / 5 10 5 0 0
Paris 75 94 75 94 76 / 30 20 5 0 0
Denton 75 97 77 97 77 / 20 10 5 0 0
McKinney 77 96 77 96 77 / 30 20 5 0 0
Dallas 79 97 79 98 78 / 20 20 5 0 0
Terrell 76 94 77 96 76 / 20 20 5 0 0
Corsicana 76 93 77 96 76 / 10 20 5 0 0
Temple 76 95 76 97 76 / 5 10 5 0 0
Mineral Wells 74 97 76 100 75 / 20 10 5 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
05/66
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
844 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017
.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 844 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017
A weak surface high has settled over the area this evening.
The rainfall from the earlier storms will combine with light winds
and mostly clear skies and result in a potential for areas of fog
tonight. Locations that received the heaviest precip amounts could
see dense fog developing after midnight. The one thing that may be a
hindrance to fog development tonight is the amount of debris clouds
we have over the area from storms to our south. Storms redeveloped
over central MS and have sent some high level cirrus clouds into the
area but on a whole clouds are beginning to clear out.
Latest SREF, NARRE, and HRRR are pointing towards more widespread
dense fog over NW AL, in TN, and in the valley locations in NE AL.
The rain cooled air has brought temps and dewpoints to within a
degree or two and overnight lows may only drop another degree or two.
A dense fog advisory might be needed later tonight but want to wait a
few more hours to watch the obs trends before sending anything out.
.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017
With the area in a minor shortwave ridge position at 500 mb on
Friday, a weak subsidence inversion develops which may inhibit deep
convective development on Friday. Since it is weak, will opt to keep
a low chance in at this time. Temperatures should still warm back
into the u80s to l90s.
High pressure and upper level ridging remains in place over the
southeast into Saturday, as multiple disturbances move into the
western portion of the ridge over the area. This will continue to
produce scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Gusty winds,
heavy downpours, and frequent lightning will be possible with
stronger storms. Models show very warm temperatures at 925 mb
developing (between 23 and 27 degrees - especially west of I-65).
Since only expecting low chance pops on Saturday, it won`t take much
insolation to reach the 92 to 94 degree range in hot spots. This will
allow heat index readings to climb to around 102 degrees in some
locations.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017
Expect isolated to scattered showers and storms to
continue Saturday night.
Rain chances do not increase much on Sunday. With similar conditions
in place, expect highs again between 92 and 94 degrees. Again, heat
index readings look to climb to around 100 degrees in spots. Gusty
winds and frequent lightning look to be the main threats with
stronger storms.
A better chance of rain looks possible Sunday night into Monday, as
a longwave trough axis and associated frontal boundary approach and
then move through the area. Shear remains non- existent with this
system and no low level helicity is forecast. Thus, only expecting
some strong storms producing gusty winds, heavy downpours, and
frequent rainfall. Thicker cloud cover and higher precipitation
coverage should provide a bit of relief to the hot and humid
conditions Monday.
As drier and somewhat cooler air pushes into the region behind the
departed front Monday night into Tuesday lower temperatures and more
comfortable conditions are expected. Highs look to return back into
the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints into the lower to mid 60s. High
pressure will build back over the area on Tuesday and remain in
control of the forecast through Wednesday.
Isolated shower and storms return to the forecast by the end of the
week as additional energy pushes into the western edge of the ridge.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017
Some lingering light rain and low clouds continue across portions of
the area and could move briefly over the HSV terminal between 00-02z
this evening. Otherwise, expect a clearing trend in cloud cover. The
widespread rain this afternoon and clearing skies with light winds
tonight is a good setup for fog to form. Some portions of the area
could see patchy dense fog of a 1/4 mile or less. Have lowered vsbys
at the terminals with models showing more confidence in potential for
fog.
Fog should clear by 14-15Z Friday morning leaving VFR conditions and
SW winds around 5kts. A few isolated storms are possible in the
afternoon.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Stumpf
SHORT TERM...KTW
LONG TERM...KTW
AVIATION...Stumpf
For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
900 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017
.UPDATE...
900 PM CDT
For Evening Update...
Cluster of thunderstorms have developed across northeast Iowa
since late this afternoon, in association with a mid-level
disturbance tracking east across the region. RAP analysis data
indicates these storms have developed on the nose of weak but
persistent southwesterly 15-20 kt 925-850 mb jet, along the
northern edge of a 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE axis across southern
IA/central IL. While boundary layer is beginning to stabilize with
loss of diurnal heat, slightly elevated storms will likely
continue to develop and spread east-southeast into the night as
mid-level speed maxima propagates eastward. 40-50 kt 0-6 km bulk
shear will continue to support organized convection, with some
potential for a wind/hail threat especially early. However, the
strongest cells northwest of the Quad Cities should tend to
propagate more southeast along the edge of the stronger
instability gradient. Overall severe threat, while not zero,
should decrease with time and eastward extent. Warm advection
ascent persists overnight, with many of the high res convection
allowing models continuing to develop showers/storms behind the
initial batch, lingering into early Friday morning in some spots.
Overall, going forecast reflects this with likely pops overnight
generally along/north of I-80 over northern IL. Tweaked hourly
pops a bit out west for timing, but otherwise have maintained
character of previous forecast.
Ratzer
&&
.SHORT TERM...
217 PM CDT
Through Friday...
Short term concerns center on thunderstorm chances and timing
later this evening and early overnight hours, and some continued
heat and possibly a few storms on Friday.
The mid level flow is increasing across the plains on the southern
extent of close upper level low across centered near the Manitoba
lakes. Several disturbances in the westerly flow are evident in
water vapor across the upper midwest and plains, with the speed
max of interest across Nebraska/Iowa.
Tonight this speed max combined with an increasing southwesterly
low level jet is expected to lead an increase in convective
coverage from Iowa southwest to Missouri this evening. The first
half of the evening across our area appears dry, but this combined
ascent atop a modestly unstable airmass (stronger to our west)
combined with increasing shear should lead to at least scattered
convective clusters spreading across northeast Illinois later this
evening and spreading into NW Indiana after midnight. Strong to
locally severe storms are possible. There is better co-location
of instability and shear across north Central Illinois where the
current Marginal risk for severe storms exists. Hail and damaging
wind are the main hazards with 1000 J/KG of MUCAPE and 35-40 kt of
effective shear available and mid level lapse rates encroaching
above 7 deg/km, with the wind concern due to lingering downdraft
CAPE.
Confidence on storm coverage Friday is pretty low, following this
more organized wave overnight. The airmass changes very little
into Friday as the lower level flow remains out of the southwest.
Have maintained some lower chances of precipitation given the
continued train of subtle waves in the active west flow aloft.
Temperatures look to still remain warm, but likely shave off a few
degrees with some lingering cloud cover and slightly cooler low
level airmass.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
344 PM CDT
Friday night through Thursday...
Main forecast concerns are with continued periodic thunderstorm
chances through the period, with above normal temps expected into
the start of the weekend.
The threat of thunderstorms will remain at the start of the
period, once again, stemming from whatever develops during the
day. Confidence with overall coverage is lower for Friday night,
but the potential for at least scattered thunderstorms seems
probable given the instability/moisture in place and with
continued large scale ascent likely. Also, some threat for at
least a stronger storm will also continue during this time.
The period to continue to keep an eye on will be Saturday into
Saturday night as guidance is advertising the potential for
additional severe weather across the region. Of course, details to
still fall out with successive forecasts/updates. However, a
dynamic system with strong mid and upper level flow is anticipated
to be in place, as a more amplified pattern swings a deepening
surface low across the region. At this time, potential shear in a
strongly unstable environment in this pattern would continue to
suggest that all severe weather hazards are possible. Although
this is possible, will continue to watch some limiting factors
such as exact placement/evolution of the surface low as well as
the possibility for morning convection that could complicate
exactly how the day will unfold. At this time, the highest threat
of severe weather looks to be later in the day Saturday into
Saturday night. Once again, this is a period worth monitoring
given the potential severe threat.
A cooler and drier air mass expected by Sunday with the potential
for thunderstorms expected to lower. This is as a large upper
level trough settles overhead into early next week. Chances for
precip do lower for this period but with the region remaining in
cyclonic flow, scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm
can`t be ruled out. Warm and moist pattern looks to return by
mid/late week next week, with an active pattern once again
appearing possible.
Rodriguez
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...
637 pm...Main forecast concern is thunderstorms this evening into
early Friday morning.
Area of thunderstorms developing over northern IA will continue
moving east/southeast this evening reaching northwest IL by mid
evening and the Chicago area terminals toward midnight. Confidence
is high for scattered thunderstorms and timing but they should be
in a slow weakening trend as they move across the terminals. Thus
there could be breaks in the convection. An outflow boundary is
possible ahead of these storms but confidence is low. If there is
an outflow...its likely to be from the west/northwest and trends
will need to be monitored as the storms approach. There appears to
be at least isolated coverage showers and thunderstorms that may
fester through sunrise and extended the vicinity mention for this
potential but confidence is low. Trends seem to support any
additional thunderstorm development Friday remaining south of the
terminals during the day...with the potential for another round of
thunderstorms late Friday evening into early Saturday morning.
A lake breeze remains just east of mdw and appears to be generally
stationary. With time...expect this boundary to move west and then
dissipate after sunset. Winds will likely turn light southeasterly
this evening and then settle to light southwesterly overnight with
south/southwest winds increasing to 10-15kts Friday. cms
&&
.MARINE...
344 PM CDT
As low pressure over Manitoba slowly moves northeast to James Bay
through Saturday, expect generally southerly flow to be in place
across the entire lake with speeds likely staying confined to 10 to
20 KT. In the near term, dense fog remains in place mainly across
the northern third of the lake. As it appears to remain in place for
several more hours, have issued a dense fog advisory through this
evening. Although some lower confidence as to when this dense fog
will diminish, the more widespread dense fog should should diminish
this evening. Will likely see an increase in speeds this weekend,
later Saturday into Saturday night. Some potential for winds around
30 KT, however, lower confidence with this possibility. The
likelihood of thunderstorms will complicate the wind field across
the lake during this time.
Rodriguez
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
328 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017
The chance for convection through Saturday is the primary forecast
concern.
Zonal mid level flow pattern will continue into Saturday before
stronger shortwave swings through the Plains, bringing northwest
flow aloft for the end of the weekend. Several perturbations rolling
through the westerlies could trigger scattered thunderstorms across
our area beginning this evening through Friday before better forcing
with aforementioned stronger shortwave Saturday afternoon/night.
Surface front was analyzed extending from northeast Nebraska into
northwest Iowa at noon today. Front will settle south later this
afternoon, helped along by weak mid level impulse noted by
enhancement in western/central Nebraska on water vapor imagery. RAP
analysis also shows weak ripple in 500mb height fields here as well.
Low level moisture was pooled from southeast Nebraska south into
Kansas where lower 70s dew points were noted. However 850mb moisture
was suppressed farther south from northern Oklahoma into western
Kansas. Virtually clear skies into the early afternoon has allowed
temperatures to climb well into the 90s in Kansas where 850 moisture
was expected to expand north with approach of mid level wave. Thus
best theta-e convergence area where storms have initiated was west
central/north central Kansas where MLCAPE values 3000-4000 J/kg were
noted. As eastern Nebraska frontal boundary sags south, 850 moisture
should expand northeast ahead of it where surface moisture is
already in place. Slight cooling aloft under mid level wave will
yield MLCAPE values 2500-3000 J/kg there, suggesting northeast
development of convection from Kansas activity into southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa just ahead of surface front is likely.
Given buoyancy forecasts, large hail is a concern for several hours
this evening before front settles south ushered along by convective
outflows.
Frontal boundary is forecast to wash out overnight southerly low
level flow expands north through eastern Nebraska and western Iowa,
bringing mid 60s to lower 70s dew points back into our area by
Friday morning. Another shortwave noted by several synoptic-scale
models is expected to move into eastern Nebraska during the
afternoon, nudging surface trough/dryline along with it. Meanwhile,
MLCAPEs are forecast to range from 2000-4000 J/kg across most of our
area as convective inhibition dwindles between 18Z and 21Z. Expect
convection to fire along dryline from northeast to south central
Nebraska before 21Z, then progress southeast with time during the
afternoon and evening. Given expected instability, could see other
storms pop up ahead of this main surface feature where lingering
outflows/boundaries remain/set up. In any case, all storms will have
potential for large hail and damaging winds with high CAPE and bulk
shear near 40kt. Also see SPC`s Day 2 outlook as the early afternoon
update upgraded part of southwest Iowa and east central Nebraska to
an Enhanced Risk for severe.
By Saturday, severe risk is more conditional on where surface
moisture/fronts will lie after Friday night convection. Stronger
upper trough is scheduled into the Northern Plains by mid day
Saturday, and most model output shows westerly surface wind
component across all of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa by 18Z.
Thus moisture/instability profiles conducive for convection and
severe will be east and south of our area during time of max
heating. However, timing of these features is questionable at this
point, and a slower advancement would place southwest Iowa and
southeast Nebraska under threat for severe for a few hours in the
afternoon. Otherwise we are looking at post-frontal showers and a
few thunderstorms rolling in from the west as right entrance region
of mid level jet enhances isentropic upglide from southwest Nebraska
late afternoon into the southern half of eastern Nebraska and into
southwest Iowa late Saturday evening and overnight.
By Sunday, precipitation chance should be minimal as northwest flow
through the atmosphere ushers in cooler and drier air. Highs Sunday
look to tip to the cooler side of normal for a changes, with temps
from the mid 70s north to the lower 80s south.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017
While the week will start off dry and cool under northwest flow
aloft, a gradual return to warmer temperatures, a little more
humidity, and sporadic thunderstorm chances as flow becomes more
zonal by mid week.
Highs Monday in the lower 80s will gain several categories Tuesday
through Thursday, reaching the upper 80s to middle 90s those days.
Precipitation chances should increase Tuesday night as a first in a
series of mid level shortwaves rolls into the region. Timing of each
round of potential convection will be impossible to pin down this
far out, but there is at least some chance right on through Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at all 3 sites.
Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop across portions of
far southeast Nebraska this evening but should remain out of the
TAF sites. Did add a broken mid-level deck at KLNK to account for
this.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Dergan
LONG TERM...Dergan
AVIATION...Kern
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
304 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017
Overall, dry wly flow across CO today with temps climbing a few degf
most areas versus yesterday. Back edge of unstable air mass and
diffuse boundary from convection in KS lies near the CO border at
mid-afternoon, with vis satellite loop showing some cumulus
development into Kiowa county as of 21z. HRRR forecasts boundary and
instability to drift into KS through early evening, and will keep
tsra out of the forecast for all areas, though convective
developments in KS could send some fairly healthy outflow westward
across the plains this evening. Flow then gradually becomes more
nwly overnight and through the day Friday as ridge builds over the
desert SW, with max temps climbing 2-5 degf most locations as
heights begin to increase. Could see some near 100f readings return
to areas along the lower Ark Valley, with 90s elsewhere on the
plains, 80s interior valleys and mainly 70s/80s in the mountains
below 10k feet.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017
Friday night-Sunday night...Weak to moderate northwest flow aloft
progged across the state with an embedded short wave translating
across the Northern Tier and into the Upper Midwest. Passing wave
sends a front across Eastern Colorado Saturday afternoon and
evening, with moisture pooling along and behind the front helping to
produce a few showers and thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon
across the Pikes Peak region, with the potential for storms
spreading south and west across the eastern mountains and plains
through the evening hours.
Timing of the front does not look to bring relief in the hot
temperatures on Saturday, with highs expected to be in 90s to
around the century mark across the plains, 70s and 80s across the
higher terrain and in the 50s to 60s at the peaks. Sunday
continues to look cooler, especially across the eastern plains,
with increased low level moisture within breezy low level upslope
flow into the afternoon. Some differences in how far west
available works back, though cant rule out a few afternoon and
evening storms across the southern mts and adjacent plains on
Sunday, with temperatures mainly in the 70s and 80s across the
area, with 50s at the peaks.
Monday-Thursday...Upper ridging rebuilds back across the Desert SW
and into the Great Basin, keeping generally week west to northwest
flow aloft across the state. This will allow for temperatures to
warm to above seasonal levels once again, and keep at least a chance
of a few afternoon and evening storms in the forecast through the
period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017
VFR conditions expected tonight and Friday at all taf sites, with
typical diurnal wind cycle.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
722 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017
.UPDATE...
Increased shower and thunderstorm chances to likely for complex
of storms moving southeast into the Country. HRRR has the storms complex
continuing move southeast into the Big Country and northern Concho
Valley...and as far east as Brown and San Saba Counties. Some
could be severe...with large hail and damaging winds the main
threats.
04
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR conditions continue across West Central Texas early this
evening, but complex of storms across the South Plains should move
southeast and approach the area later this evening. Latest hi-res
models suggest that KABI (Abilene) will be the most likely one to
see any of these storms and will continue the VCTS for now. May
need to update once storm trajectory becomes more certain.
Otherwise, will leave storms out for now. MVFR cigs will return by
morning and will largely us the timing from this morning as a
start and stop point on the low clouds.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)
As of mid afternoon, widely scattered thunderstorms have developed
across the dryline in Lubbok`s CWA as indicated by many of the short
range models this morning. These storms are expected to continue to
develop towards the southeast and be located near the Big Country by
early evening. Additional storms may develop near Midland later this
afternoon in a manner similar to yesterday and could reach the
western border of our CWA later this evening. MLCAPE values near
3700-4200 j/kg coupled with 30-40 kts of 0-6 km shear will allow for
the possibility of some of these storms to become severe. If the
stronger cells hold together and move into our CWA, the primary
hazards will be large hail and damaging winds. The storms will
likely dissipate by midnight, leaving the best rain chances along
the western border of the CWA and the Big Country.
For tomorrow, rain chances will have diminished overnight. The heat
will once again return to West Central Texas bringing high
temperatures into the upper 90s to 104. Low temperatures tonight
are expected to drop into the low to mid 70s.
LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Thursday)
An upper level ridge will centered across northern Mexico or the
Southwest U.S. through the extended forecast, with its influence
extending into the western half of Texas. Well above normal
temperatures are forecast both Saturday and Sunday. High
temperatures on Saturday will mainly be in the 100 to 105 range. A
heat advisory may eventually be needed, as several locations may
reach or exceed 103 degrees.
An upper level trough will swing across the Plains Sunday, sending a
cold front into the Big Country Sunday afternoon. High temperatures
on Sunday will be dependent on the eventual strength and speed of
this cold front. Ahead of the front, compressional heating will
result in triple digit temperatures, while temperatures in the 80s
will be possible behind the front. For now, only minor changes were
made to temperatures, but these temperatures may need to be trended
down, especially across the northern half of the forecast area.
Slightly cooler temperature are forecast on Monday behind the front,
with highs mainly in low to mid 90s.
Upper level ridging will build back into West Central Texas for the
middle to latter part of the work week. This will result in mainly
dry conditions and temperatures above seasonal normals.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 75 101 76 102 / 60 10 0 5
San Angelo 75 102 75 104 / 20 10 0 5
Junction 73 98 73 100 / 0 5 0 0
Brownwood 74 98 73 100 / 30 10 0 0
Sweetwater 74 101 75 102 / 70 10 0 5
Ozona 73 99 74 101 / 20 10 5 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
99/04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
901 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The 7 pm regional mesosanalysis showed a well-defined outflow
boundary extending across central GA into southeast AL. The
latest HRRR runs appeared to handle this feature reasonably well,
though they were a little slow. Judging from this evening`s
Tallahassee RAOB, CAPE values will only be in the 500-1000 J/kg
range (depending on what level a parcel is lifted), and these
parcels will need to overcome about 50 J/kg CIN from a warm
layer at 800 mb. The HRRR obviously thinks the approaching cold
pool can overcome this CIN, though based on recent weakening
trends in the radar imagery, we suspect the HRRR is a little
overdone. Nevertheless, we have increased PoPs significantly
across our region for this evening, from 100% in southeast AL &
southwest GA, to likely around Tallahassee, Panama City, and
Valdosta, to 50% around Perry and Cross City. Given the marginal
thermodynamics and poor deep-layer shear, we expect mainly showers
and a few thunderstorms, and do not expect wind gusts to exceed
35 MPH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [821 PM EDT]...
.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
Summertime pattern will continue across the area through Saturday
with weak upper trough in place. Deep-layer moisture will remain
plentiful on Friday, which will support relatively high rain
chances once again. By Saturday, guidance suggests some mid/upper
dry air will move in from the southeast. This will likely limit
coverage compared to the past several days. Near normal
temperatures are expected with highs in the upper 80s and lows in
the lower 70s.
.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...
Significant disagreement exists for the extended period forecast,
generally centered around the area of disturbed weather over the
NW Caribbean Sea. The 12Z UKMET/ECMWF both develop a weak area of
low pressure near the Yucatan peninsula and track it slowly west
northwestward into the southern Gulf of Mexico. This evolution
would have little impact on the local area, with the typical
summertime convective pattern prevailing. The GFS develops an
elongated trough which rotates into the northeastern Gulf by late
Monday into Tuesday. While the trough is not very deep, the
strength of the Bermuda high to the west would create a rather
tight gradient along the west coast of Florida into the Big Bend.
Along with copious amounts of tropical moisture, this could lead
to breeze conditions and the potential for widespread heavy rain.
Analysis of the GFS precip/vorticity fields suggests that this
solution might be impacted by convective feedback issues within
the model, leading to over development of the surface trough. The
non-GFS solution appears to be more realistic at this point, so have
hedged in that direction for the extended period with lower winds
and PoPs.
.AVIATION [Through 00Z Saturday]...
Thunderstorms along an outflow boundary will impact DHN and ABY
early in the forecast period and could make it as far as ECP, but
uncertainty is too great to include at TLH and VLD at this time.
These storms should be weakening with time, but could still cause
a brief period of IFR or MFR ceilings and visibilities and gusty
winds. A period of IFR ceilings is expected to develop during the
pre-dawn hours at DHN, ABY and TLH and lift around 14Z. Another
round of scattered afternoon convection is expected Friday
afternoon.
.MARINE...
Winds and seas will generally be low through the weekend, except
near scattered showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas may begin
to increase early next week as a tropical wave moves into the
southern Gulf of Mexico.
.FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns.
.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected for the
next several days. Rainfall accumulations will generally be around 1-
2 inches through Sunday, but isolated areas could receive that in a
single afternoon. Due to the scattered nature of the storms,
widespread river flooding is not expected, however, isolated
flooding will be possible.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 72 88 70 88 69 / 60 60 30 40 20
Panama City 74 84 75 84 76 / 70 30 30 30 20
Dothan 71 88 72 88 72 / 100 50 40 30 30
Albany 72 89 72 89 73 / 80 50 50 40 30
Valdosta 72 88 71 88 71 / 60 60 30 50 30
Cross City 73 87 72 87 71 / 50 40 20 30 20
Apalachicola 75 84 74 84 74 / 50 30 30 30 20
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Fournier
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Wool
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Camp