Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/15/17

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
700 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 At 2 PM, a short wave trough was producing showers and storms across western Wisconsin. These storms were producing wind speeds anywhere from 40 to 75 mph. The strongest wind gust was at the Reedsburg AWOS. These storms are quickly exiting the area and the HRRR is showing little redevelopment in the wake of this system. As a result, we were able to cancel our portion of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 328 early. On Thursday afternoon, a mid-level speed max will move east across the area. With 0-1 km mixed layer CAPES climbing up into the 1 to 2K range, expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop mainly along and south of the Interstate 90 corridor. With 0-3 km shear generally less than 30 knots, not anticipating any severe weather from these storms. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 From Thursday night into Saturday morning, a series of weak short wave troughs will move through the region. These will produce periodic showers and storms. While the 0-6 km shear is very weak, the 0-3 km shear does occasionally climb up into the 25 to 35 knot range at time. In addition, there is inverted V sounding in the sub-cloud layer. As a result, there could be the potential for some gusty straight-line winds from time to time. On Saturday afternoon and night, a much stronger short wave trough will move southeast through the area. While the GFS and ECMWF have supercell shear ahead of this wave, the amount of instability varies considerably between them. The ECMWF has the 0-1 km mixed layer CAPES only climbing up into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Meanwhile the GFS has them in the 2 to 3K range. SPC has a small portion of our area (Fayette and Clayton counties in northeast Iowa and Grant County in southwest Wisconsin) with a 15% chance of severe weather. This seems very realistic, because this is the area which will see the highest amount of instability. In the wake of this system, below-normal temperatures will move into the region. These cooler temperatures will continue through Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through the period. Look for winds to increase late Thursday morning into the 9 to 13 kt range and depending on how deeply the atmosphere mixes, we could see a some gusts in the 25 to 30 kt range. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Boyne LONG TERM...Boyne AVIATION...Wetenkamp
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1005 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A front stalled over southwestern PA will begin to lift back to the northeast as a warm front on Thursday and Friday. This will keep the mention of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... RAP meso-anal still shows some modest instability over western PA and the RADAR still shows a lonely cell over southern Somerset county. My Laurel Highlands zones remain the focus of where the best chance of rain will be overnight, but the coverage should remain fairly small with just isolated showers or a thunderstorm. It will be another mild night with lows averaging 5-10 deg warmer than normal. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/... Shower/thunderstorm coverage increases on Thursday from west to east with frontal boundary in the region with decent low level moisture and CAPE in place. WPC shows western zones with a marginal risk of excessive rainfall Thu. Given FFG values, lowered by the recent spell of dry weather, coupled with forecast rainfall, expect rainfall may be more beneficial than problematic and any flooding threat to be very localized urban or small stream issues. Will monitor going forward for the need of a flash flood watch for western zones. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Model and ensemble guidance remain in good agreement on the development of a modestly strong mid/upper level trough over the Great Lakes by Monday, with multiple waves progressing around the base of the trough and ejecting northeast into Canada. The most likely period for showers and thunderstorms (Sun-Mon) will focus along the associated surface cold front which is progged to slowly push southeast and reach the Mid Atlantic coast by 20/12z. Temperatures are fcst to trend above average over the weekend with max readings in the mid 80s to low 90s on Sunday. Max heat index is projected to reach the mid 90s across portions of the mid-lower Susquehanna Valley. Unlike the recent heat episode, the duration of hot temperatures is expected to be shorter (1 possibly 2 days max - with limited area /SEPA/ on Monday). Lower humidity and near average temperatures are likely following the cold frontal passage into the middle part of next week. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions for all TAF sites this afternoon and overnight. Lower CIGS in showers and thunderstorms more likely on Thu/Thu evening with frontal system in the area. Unsettled weather continues Friday into Saturday. .OUTLOOK... Fri...Low cigs, showers/tstorms possible, mainly in the AM. Sat-Sun...Patchy AM fog possible. Isold PM tsra impacts possible. && .CLIMATE... Record high at Harrisburg (95F in 1956) was broken yesterday. High at Harrisburg yesterday was 96 degrees. Record report sent out. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...Ross LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Ross/Ceru CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
919 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm and moist airmass will lead to an unsettled weather pattern through the weekend. A drier and cooler airmass will settle into the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Line of showers and thunderstorms was moving into east-central Indiana at 00Z. Just within the past hour or so, have observed significantly less lightning and this adds support that this line is weakening. Still, for at least a couple more hours, there is the risk for strong gusty winds affecting areas of east-central Indiana/far western Ohio. Then the risk will diminish by late evening as suggested by most guidance, although remnant showers may extend all the way toward central Ohio by midnight. Thereafter, models including high resolution guidance have struggled with the potential for additional convection overnight. There exists considerably higher uncertainty than usual for a first period forecast. In this warm/moist environment and with small scale boundaries lurking, certainly can`t rule out the risk for overnight convection (am already seeing some new development in south central Indiana that will likely affect our southwest CWA), however am leaning toward the idea that any stronger/more widespread convection that develops for the overnight would remain to the southwest of the CWA as some of the most recent HRRR runs are suggesting. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Although the evolution of scattered activity in the near term period has a degree of uncertainty to it, the consensus on Thursday`s activity is ironically a bit more focused. Latest guidance has trended a bit slower with the weakly-defined cold front expected to progress from west to east through the FA during the short term period before it inevitably washes out somewhere in the Ohio Valley. As such, trended PoPs a bit slower for Thursday late afternoon and evening. Destabilization will occur through the afternoon and evening and convection will eventually develop during the heating of the day before slowly progressing eastward through the evening. With continued high PWATs in excess of 1.5," pockets of heavy rain, and a corresponding localized flooding threat, will be possible. Strongest activity will also yield a threat for locally damaging winds. Will continue to highlight this potential in the HWO. With a bit less cloud cover expected through the first part of the day on Thursday, temperatures may nudge up into the upper 80s in a few spots. Have trended highs several degrees above guidance to account for this potential. Drier conditions will return Thursday night as slightly drier air moves in and best forcing most east of the FA. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected, with lows generally in the mid/upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The immediate long term period will feature a quasi-westerly flow pattern aloft with embedded weak disturbances rippling through this flow from time to time Friday into Saturday. Timing of these disturbances is somewhat problematic and whether it will coincide with max diurnal instability. As such, will maintain a low threat for showers/storms during this period. It will remain warm and humid both days with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 and lows in the 60s to around 70. It still looks like a bona fide mid level trough will be poised to traverse the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Sunday into Monday. A cold front associated with this trough will interact with a moist and unstable airmass to bring the highest confidence/coverage for showers/thunderstorms, particularly Sunday into Sunday night. Will continue with likely PoPs. It will be warm again on Sunday with highs in the mid and upper 80s. We should begin to dry out on Monday as the front moves east. Surface high pressure is forecast to build into the Ohio Valley Monday night, moving east on Tuesday. Temperatures will cool back down into the upper 70s and lower 80s with lows in the 60s. A weak front may swing into the region on a northwest flow Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Line of showers and thunderstorms across central IN will continue moving to the east through this evening. Highest confidence of impact at a terminal will be DAY around or shortly after 02z with reduced visibility and potential gusty winds. Confidence with the line extending further south into the CVG/LUK areas is lower and thus only have VCTS at this time. In addition, further east toward the Columbus terminals, expect a weakening trend late this evening and therefore only have mention of VCSH after 03z. Models, including high resolution guidance, have provided differing solutions for overnight/Thursday. Some model runs have suggested some renewed convective activity late tonight/early Thursday while others have been suggesting generally dry conditions with thunderstorms returning during the afternoon/evening. Have leaned toward the latter solution at this time, focusing on the greater likelihood of convection linked to the diurnal cycle. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Saturday through Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM...BPP SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...BPP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
856 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 856 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 The strength of the storms in our forecast area /FA/ has decreased, with mainly showers and a few storms still active. A few stronger updrafts just west of Scott County could maintain strength as they approach the SW corner of our FA. An axis of instability remains across our southern counties, so the Severe Watch will be allowed to continue through 10 pm for now. Overall trends show the focus for storms should shift south of our counties by midnight, with spotty showers/storms still possible farther north toward Peoria later tonight. The lack of a tangible trigger for storms farther north lowers confidence on coverage, but the high res models have been consistently showing a line of showers from west to east near Peoria after 09z. So have continued slight chance PoPs through the night even for our northern counties. Cold pool outflows from the evening convection have altered the temperature profile across central Illinois, but the overall flavor of the low temps should still hold. We expect upper 60s and low 70s for lows in general, which means some areas may see steady temps for the rest of the night as the air mass recovers from rainy-cooled air back toward the antecedent air conditions. The main updates this evening were to PoPs and weather to match expected trends. The remainder of the forecast looked on track. Updated info is already available. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Potential for strong to severe storms will continue into the early evening, as a 500mb shortwave lifts northeast across the area. MUCAPEs of 3000-4000 J/kg late this afternoon will diminish steadily this evening. Low level helicity of 150-200 m2/s2 will provide some rotational tendencies in the stronger storms that persist longer. However, DCAPE values of 1500-1700 J/kg will dominate the convective mode and damaging winds appear the more likely severe hazard. Half inch hail will be possible, but freezing levels over 14000 FT will diminish the potential for large hail. The melting hail could boost potential for very heavy rainfall rates over short periods of time, where 1 inch of rain falls in as short as 15 minutes. The ground is predominantly dry to start, so flash flooding potential will be diminished in general, but could still occur in low lying and poor drainage areas. Both of our Severe Thunderstorm Watches expire at 01z/8pm, but our southeast counties could need an additional hour or two added to the watch, if the NAM-nest model verifies. HRRR shows the current wave exiting into Indiana by 23z/6pm, with another flare- up of weaker storms west of I-55 between 01z-04z. In addition, we are still seeing some indication of a late night low level jet triggering a few showers/storms north of a line from Rushville to Bloomington, so PoPs were continued in our NW counties until 11z. Coverage may not be enough to warrant the likely PoPs we previous had after 06z, so late night PoPs were lowered a bit. A few showers/storms could linger in our eastern counties Thursday morning, mainly east of I-57 but possibly as far west as I-55 toward sunrise. Then some clearing is expected, setting the stage for another hot and humid day. High temps will reach the 88 to 93F range, with the cooler temps toward the Indiana border due to morning convection. Muggy sfc dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s will linger another day. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 A zonal flow south will prevail across the Midwest for the first part of the extended forecast. That will allow the next wave in a series of shortwaves to affect areas west of the Illinois River late Thursday night, with storms expanding across the remainder of Illinois on Friday. The overall strength of that system appears weak, but instability will be supportive of isolated severe storms late Friday afternoon into early evening, mainly west of I-55. Another stronger wave is projected to arrive later Friday night into Saturday, triggering additional storms, and prompting higher chance and some low likely PoPs. An intensifying nocturnal LLJ may increase potential of wind damage with those storms. The last wave of the weekend will be a cold frontal passage Saturday night into Sunday, bringing chances of strong storms once again. The timing of that squall line looks to put areas west of I-55 in the higher chance Sat evening, with high chances expanding east of I-55 after midnight and continuing south of I-70 Sunday morning. That front will usher in a change in air mass for early next week. Expect cooler weather for at least the first two days of next week, with high temperatures in the lower 80s Monday and Tuesday, and overnight lows dipping into the upper 50s and lower 60s. A few spotty showers/storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening due to a weak shortwave, but most areas should remain dry. A warming trend will begin on Wednesday, as southerly winds return and highs climb back toward the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 The storms have become focused in west-central Illinois, and there appears to be enough of a mid-level trigger to keep those storms progressing to the east and eventually S-SE. There is enough instability that will continue above the stabilizing ground level layer to fuel continued development of potentially severe storms. SPI and possibly DEC may be affected by the current complex of storms. Only included a tempo for IFR conditions at SPI, and will monitor the need for one at DEC. The remaining TAF sites should remain north of the storms, but a few showers could linger across the remainder of central Illinois this evening. Overall, VFR conditions will prevail for most of the next 24 hours, except for during a thunderstorm if one hits a TAF site. Tomorrow morning, a few showers/storms could develop east of I-57, and possibly affect CMI. However, several high res models do not show that morning wave of convection, so have not included any precip after 12z at CMI. Prevailing winds will remain south to southwest due to Illinois remaining in the warm sector throughout this TAF period. Wind speeds should remain 10kt or less, under a weak pressure gradient. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Shimon SHORT TERM...Shimon LONG TERM...Shimon AVIATION...Shimon
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
819 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Forecast Update... Issued at 636 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Outflow boundary reaching from northern Indiana to middle Tennessee is slowly sliding to the west, and is entering Louisville at the time of this writing. Showers and a few small thunderstorms are being forced up by the boundary, but are remaining isolated and relatively weak -- the gust front is not providing much of an impetus as it moves only very slowly and has surface winds of only around 10 mph behind it, plus AMDAR soundings show a cap around 12k`. As the sun continues to lower, thunderstorm chances will lower as well, leading to a quiet evening for many. Right now the convection in central Indiana is expected to stay just north of the LMK CWA, but it will need to be watched for any southward development as it encounters the gust front coming in from the east. Attention will then turn to the possibility of showers and thunderstorms moving in from the northwest after midnight. Another outflow boundary is currently seen in radar data from southwest Indiana into central Illinois, and may help to focus convection tonight. && .Short Term (Now through Thursday Night)... Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Sufficient heating and now some triggers expected to come upstream to develop storms first this afternoon generally east of I-65 and then more storms coming in this evening from the west. Downdraft CAPEs are pretty high over our area according to RAP and LAPS data. Would not be surprised to see a good cold pool organize and blast into our energetic environment to maintain stronger storms into our region. The line should decay as it progresses farther east later this evening...or it may turn southward into central TN. In the wake of this system, we should have a quiet morning Thursday, but another wave moving in from the west in the afternoon should allow for new development, as per the latest ARW-WRF. These storms will have a little more wind aloft to work with, so they should move faster than the more pulsy-type storms this afternoon. They may be able to mix down a little stronger wind gusts. Lastly, precipitable waters will be fairly high, so despite the faster motion, will have to watch for localized flood potential. Given cooling with the rains, will go a little lower for temperatures in the morning, but given more insolation possible during the day will bump temperatures up for the afternoon. Thursday night, again in the wake of preceding rains for most of the region, should once again cool down. Dewpoints dropping a few degrees will help with that too. .Long Term (Friday through Wednesday)... Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 The trend for Friday continues drier, despite a trough moving across the region. Precipitable waters drop to the the low 1-inch range, but with some better moisture trying to pull in from the west, but a little behind the better forcing. Thus plan to keep the daytime period dry Friday, which makes us warm again. Saturday, we get another in a string of multiple disturbances move across us, but this time with that better moisture out west over us instead. That should set up isolated to scattered storms. Better coverage is expected Sunday/Sunday night as a longwave trough moves through the Midwest. The GEM/GFS/00Z Euro/GEFS all have good consistency on a long swath of precip along a front associated with this system. Timing here again could lead to some severe potential, so something to watch for over the next several forecast cycles. Temperatures both weekend days should continue above normal. Behind this longer-wave system, we should cool off and dry out at least to start the work week. Zonal flow with some disturbances return again for midweek. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 751 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Convection that is currently in northeastern MO and western IL is the greatest threat to aviation for SDF, LEX, and BWG. If this system remains organized, it will start to move southeast towards KY. Some models have been too optimistic today, so their arrival at SDF and BWG has been pushed back to 9z and to 15z at LEX. Uncertainty remains high to the exact timing and strength of showers or thunderstorms. Thunderstorms were left out of the TAFs for this reason. Wind will veer from south to southwest. Expect rain to move out of central KY by tomorrow evening. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Update...13 Short Term.....RJS Long Term......RJS Aviation...KDW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
904 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... A bit less convective activity tonight over the mid state compared to last night, so quiet evening so far. Short term models such as the HRRR are suggesting convection will move in from the northwest before sunrise, so adjusted pops just a bit. Current MCS developing near STL looks to be the culprit for development overnight. Also added mention of fog in eastern zones since dewpoint depressions on the Plateau are already under 3 degrees, and would not be surprised to see a few areas see some patchy fog development. Otherwise rest of the forecast looks to be on track. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. Only some isolated showers across Middle Tennessee this afternoon so will just mention VCSH at CSV. HRRR/NAM models insistent on an MCS forming across MO/IL and diving south into our area late tonight/Thursday morning, so will mention VCTS at all airports and TSRA at CKV. Otherwise, light south to west winds are expected along with VFR conditions. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......Barnwell AVIATION........Shamburger
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
939 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 .UPDATE... Made small adjustments to hourly grids tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Chances for additional severe storms appear to be very low for the rest of tonight. Increasing CINH with the loss of daytime heating along with the lack of large scale lift have caused a decrease in storm coverage and intensity this evening. Generally kept 20% for storms for the rest of tonight in most locations, generally east of a surface dryline from Cheyenne to Woodward, and anywhere north of a Archer City, Texas to Ada line where the cap may be just weak enough for isolated activity. The low level jet may increase enough to allow for additional storms to form, particularly over north central Oklahoma near Enid and Ponca City based on latest operational and experimental HRRR runs. Not confident that additional storms will occur tonight. However, cannot completely rule out a stray strong or severe storms with large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall due to high potential elevated instability (MUCAPE 2000-4000 J/kg) and abundant low level moisture (surface dewpoints mainly in the upper 60s and lower 70s). Storm coverage should remain sparse. Warm and muggy weather will prevail with overnight low temperatures in lower to mid 70s across most locations tonight. Products will be updated shortly. MBS && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 733 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017/ UPDATE... Made a few adjustments tonight, mainly to alter rain chances before midnight. DISCUSSION... Some severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight. Exact storm evolution tonight remains very uncertain. Latest satellite and radar imagery at 730 pm CDT depicted a line of cumulus near a weak surface boundary/dryline from near Hollis to Clinton to Fairview to Medford, Oklahoma. A few showers were detected by radar near Clinton. Scattered severe storms were located between Abilene and Lubbock, Texas. So far, sufficient capping and the lack of large scale lift have prevented storm development in Oklahoma and western north Texas. This may change over the next 1-2 hours as latest models indicated weak cooling at 700 mb (especially in northern Oklahoma) which would weaken the low level cap. Also, a slight increase in the low level jet could aid in lifting the air. The greatest potential for storm development is near the dryline/surface boundary mentioned above in the next 1-2 hours. Still, not sure about storm coverage tonight due to the lack of large scale lift. Left moving storms capable of large hail and heavy rainfall between Lubbock and Abilene may move into far western north Texas (Knox county) around 9 or 10 pm, assuming they hold together which is doubtful as low level CINH may increase. Rather high instability (MUCAPE 2000-4500 J/kg) and sufficient shear (0-6 km 25-40 kt) would support severe thunderstorms (some supercells and multicells) capable of very large hail and damaging winds if storm initiation does occur in the next few hours. Storms would generally move east around 20 mph. If enough storms could occur, a cluster or two could form somewhere and dive south or southeast later tonight. There would be an outside chance for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding as well if storms develop tonight. Overall, kept 20% chance for storms tonight in most areas southeast of the surface dryline. Products will be updated soon. MBS PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 545 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017/ AVIATION... VFR conditions to continue. Winds will relax some this evening with a transition from northeast to southeast at GAG/WWR as sfc boundary lifts back north across those sites. Otherwise, isolated storms may occur this evening, but chances remain too low to mention at this time. 30 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017/ DISCUSSION... A weak surface boundary lies across Oklahoma this afternoon, approximately from Medford to Clinton to Hollis. To the northwest is somewhat less humid air, and slightly lower temperatures, along with variable or northeast winds. Weak convergence along this boundary may be sufficient to generate a few thunderstorms later this evening. Substantial CAPE with a relatively weak vertical wind profile should result mainly in disorganized storms with hail/wind as the biggest threats. Subtle features in the synoptic scale flow will have an effect on exactly what happens tomorrow. Some models are enthusiastic about a large MCS forming over Kansas and then moving south into Oklahoma tomorrow evening, supported by a weak mid-level wave. There is enough of a chance of this happening to warrant higher PoPs tomorrow evening/night. An upper-level ridge will then build over the region for Friday and Saturday. It will be hot enough both days that we could see a few "popup" storms, but nothing organized is expected. An upper wave and associated surface front will bring another chance of storms Sunday and perhaps into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 73 96 72 96 / 20 20 30 0 Hobart OK 73 97 73 99 / 20 20 20 10 Wichita Falls TX 75 97 75 99 / 20 10 20 0 Gage OK 70 99 70 98 / 10 30 20 10 Ponca City OK 73 96 71 96 / 20 20 50 10 Durant OK 76 95 75 96 / 10 10 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 17/30
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
930 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017 ...UPDATE... .DISCUSSION... Isolated convection had developed this evening along a surface boundary located across the Texas Panhandle through Northwest Oklahoma into Central and East Kansas. Weak upper flow had provided a slow movement...around 15kt or so for the ongoing storms across Western Oklahoma and Southeast Kansas. Ahead of this activity...mostly clear skies and southerly winds were common across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Overnight tonight...the ongoing isolated convection is expected to slowly develop into southward moving MCS while the surface boundary retreats west northwestward. Latest short term model solutions try to push this MCS south through Northeast Oklahoma. Indications are that a second MCS could also develop over Eastern Kansas/Western Missouri and move east southeast perhaps affecting parts of far Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas late tonight. Last few HRRR model runs have shown a little more eastern progression with this possible second MCS...keeping it mostly north of the CWA. In response...have updated pops to account for the ongoing storms potentially dropping south into the region with lesser chances eastward overnight. Weak flow/shear and an increasing cap should help to limit overall severe potentials. isolated strong/damaging wind gust will remain possible mainly over Northeast Oklahoma. Also overnight...increasing cloud cover combined with the dewpoints remaining in the upper 60s/low 70s...low temperatures tonight should again hold in the around 70 to mid 70 degree range over the CWA. Added minor tweaks to temp/dewpoint/sky/wind grids for the evening update to account for latest trends and observations. The rest of the forecast for now seems to be on track. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 76 96 73 93 / 40 20 40 10 FSM 74 96 74 96 / 20 20 20 20 MLC 75 93 74 94 / 10 20 20 10 BVO 72 94 68 93 / 30 20 50 10 FYV 71 90 69 90 / 30 30 20 20 BYV 73 91 70 90 / 40 30 20 20 MKO 73 94 72 92 / 20 20 30 10 MIO 73 94 72 92 / 30 20 40 10 F10 74 93 72 93 / 40 20 40 10 HHW 74 94 75 95 / 10 10 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 AVIATION.....30
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
525 PM MDT Wed Jun 14 2017 .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday) Issued at 259 PM MDT Wed Jun 14 2017 Water vapor imagery shows upper low continuing to drift over south central Canada north of North Dakota. A shortwave is sliding west over north central Wyoming with storms developing on the leeside of the Bighorns. Models show weak instability across northeast Wyoming into western South Dakota...with Cape values under 500 J/KG. HRRR shows the Wyoming storms moving into northeast Wyoming late this afternoon and over the Black Hills in the early evening. Storms then push eastward into central South Dakota by mid evening. Have expanded areal coverage of isolated pops...but is expected to remain isolated. Rest of the night will be dry and mostly clear with lows in the 40s to mid 50s. Weak ridging on the backside of the upper low will keep dry weather across the CWA through Friday. Highs Thursday and Friday will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s. There could be isolated shower/storms develop across the Black Hills Friday afternoon. Upper flow will become zonal through the weekend with several shortwaves crossing the northern plains. A stronger shortwave is progged to cross Montana/northern Wyoming late Friday night into Saturday along with a cold front. This will bring the best chance of precipitation over the next week...especially over northwest South Dakota. Cooler temps behind the front are expected for the weekend with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Strong upper ridging will build back into the region early next week with dry weather and a warming trend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued At 524 PM MDT Wed Jun 14 2017 VFR conditions will persist through the period. Gusty winds over northwest SD will subside this evening. A patch of -SHRA/-TSRA will move from northeast WY through the Black Hills into central SD this evening. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...Helgeson