Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/09/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1011 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017
Again no change for the overnight. Continuing to assess the
convective potential for Friday. The 18 and 21 UTC ESRL HRRR and
the 21 UTC SREF calibrated severe probabilities signal a growing
threat for organized convection propagating out of Montana late
Friday evening and into the overnight. While moisture will be
less, uncertainty in how overturned the airmass will be from the
afternoon suggests that storms associated with stronger forcing
and supported by strong shear could posed a continued severe
threat into the night.
UPDATE Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017
No change for tonight other than to blend to observed trends
through 23 UTC. Did increase winds to the max of forecast guidance
for Friday, especially for central North Dakota with deep mixing
and pressure falls ahead of the surface trough.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017
The main concerns in the short term period will be the chance of
thunderstorms (some possibly severe Friday) and hot temperatures.
Short term models have generally kept their scenario of a wave
riding over the H5 ridge tonight into Friday. This brings a chance
of thunderstorms to mainly northwest parts of the state late
tonight, that spread south and east Friday.
There are still differing ideas regarding how far south the
thunderstorm potential will exist Friday with solutions generally
favoring the higher chances in the northern parts of the forecast
area. Forecast soundings do show a decent cap early in the day,
especially south, but there are hints that it could erode by mid
to late afternoon. The updated day 2 Severe Weather Outlook from
the Storm Prediction Center spread the slight risk a little
farther south and west which appears reasonable. Sounding analogs
for tomorrow support a potential very large hail scenario while low
level (0-1km) shear is best towards the Turtle Mountains, so we
will have to see if that remains consistent in later model runs.
The other concern for Friday will be the hot temperatures. The
current forecast was based on the maximum temperatures output from
the models and have started with that again for this forecast.
There is some concern that convective cloud debris, especially in
the north, could hold temperatures back from reaching their full
potential, so shaved a few degrees off highs in that area.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017
The initial round of thunderstorms should exit to the east Friday
evening, but additional storms are possible closer to the passing
frontal boundary in western parts of the state Friday night into
Saturday morning. There could be a few thunderstorms near the
North Dakota / South Dakota border Saturday night into early
Sunday, but the better chances appear to arrive Monday into Monday
night. A large H5 trough / low is expected to lift across the
region, and the Storm Prediction Center has already placed a
severe weather risk in parts of western North Dakota. The model
blend carries at least a chance of rain across parts of the
forecast area through the remainder of the extended period which
doesn`t seem unreasonable as the area could still have influences
from the departing low.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017
Low level wind shear is possible across much of western and
central North Dakota late tonight into Friday morning with strong
winds off the surface in an inversion. A surface trough of low
pressure will move into western North Dakota Friday afternoon.
Strong southeast winds of 25-35kts ahead of the trough will become
westerly behind this feature. Scattered severe thunderstorms are
possible late Friday afternoon and through the night. While
coverage may be low, destructive hail and damaging winds are
possible.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PA
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...PA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1048 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
An ocean storm will brush Cape Cod and the Islands with a
period of rain overnight. A trough of low pressure will trigger
a few showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon,
especially across northwest Massachusetts. Otherwise mainly dry
seasonable weather is expected. A weak cold front may trigger a
few more afternoon showers/isolated thunderstorms Saturday. Then
the Bermuda High pumps summer heat and humidity into southern
New England Sunday through Tuesday. A backdoor cold front breaks
the heat with more seasonable weather and lower humidity Wed
and Thu of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM Update...
Mid and high deck of clouds as seen on latest IR satellite
imagery and OBS this evening will continue to lower and
thicken, mainly across central and eastern areas overnight.
Leading edge of rain approaching the southern islands at 02Z,
moving steadily N-NE as seen on latest KBOX 88D radar. Noting
rather wide T/Td spreads though, so may take a bit of time for
precip to reach the ground. High res near term models continue
to signal steadiest precip remaining across E Mass overnight
into early Friday morning. Forecast QPF amounts remain highest
across Cape Cod and the islands, with 0.5 to 0.8 inches,
possibly a bit higher on Nantucket.
Expect NE winds to increase overnight across the Cape and
islands as well, with gusts up to 25-30 kt from KPVC to KACK.
Have updated near term forecast to reflect current thinking,
with minor changes noted through the overnight.
Previous Discussion...
Models continue to be in agreement of keeping the center of the
emerging low pressure system southeast of the 40N/70W
benchmark. For the 12Z guidance, not much difference in
placement of the low track, also keeping the deeper moisture
offshore.
12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF confine precip to southeast MA. However, HRRR
is showing the potential for light QPF amounts as far N as BOS,
and as far W as RI. So at this time, plan to continue the
chance pops for light rain PVD-BOS and southeast MA. Highest
likelihood of measurable rainfall exists across the Cape and
Islands, especially Nantucket, where likely to categorical pops
are in place.
Winds will be strongest on the outer Cape and Nantucket late
tonight into Friday morning, with gusts 25 to around 30 kt. Wind
gusts should drop off considerably NW of the Cape Cod Canal.
Overnight lows mainly in the low 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Friday...
Offshore low center passes well east of southern New England on
Friday. The western periphery of the precipitation from this
low may reach into east coastal MA for part of the morning,
ending by midday. However, that will not mean the end of
precipitation for the day within southern New England. A short
wave and surface trough move into the area during the day, and
these features could serve as triggers for some showers. Low
level lapse rates become steep across the interior during the
afternoon. NAM indicates better chance for some t-storms than
the GFS, which indicates a mid level cap may limit extent of
convection. So at this time will not go higher than a chance pop
and mention isolated thunder possible.
Expect temps to be a bit cooler than this past afternoon, with
highs in the 70s except 60s to near 70 along the immediate coast.
Friday Night...
Short wave moves east of the area with some weak surface
ridging. Any lingering diurnal convection should end early, with
dry conditions for the overnight. Mainly clear skies with lows
in the mid and upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Highlights...
* Heat wave likely Sun-Mon-Tue
* Backdoor cold front breaks the heat Tue ngt/Wed
* More seasonable and less humid Wed/Thu next week
Synoptic Overview & Model preferences...
Last short wave trough rotates through the northeast long wave
trough Saturday, albeit of fairly low amplitude. By Sunday the
subtropical ridge builds into the Mid Atlc region resulting in
summer heat and humidity advecting into southern New England Sunday
thru Tuesday. Good agreement among both EC & GFS ensembles on
anomalous airmass advecting into southern New England with 850 mb
temps of +18C Sun-Mon-Tue. In addition 925 mb temps from ensembles
also support 90+ surface temps with +24C all three days at 925 mb.
As expected hi res deterministic guidance even warmer with +20C at
850 mb and +26C at 925 mb, toasty! However later in the forecast
period models do differ on the timing of a backdoor cold front,
which will be critical in determining the duration of this potential
heat wave. All model guidance including the 00z GEFS/ECENS along
with the 12z UKMET/ECMWF support a slower fropa of Tue ngt/Wed. The
exception is the 12z GFS which simulates a fropa sometime Tue. While
the 12z GFS solution is possible, at this time range prefer to lean
towards model consensus with a fropa of Tue ngt/Wed.
Daily Details...
Saturday...
Mid level lapse rates are not impressive at less than 6C/KM in
response to H5 temps only -14C (compared to -18C Fri aftn) and
warming late in the day. In addition mid level short wave is of
fairly low amplitude so only offering weak cyclonic flow aloft. So
given weak forcing for ascent combined with weak instability, may
only be looking at showers with any thunder very isolated. Otherwise
a fairly nice day by Jun standards with highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s, cooler south coast given SSW surface winds. Comfortable
humidity with dew pts in the 50s. Morning sunshine will give way to
afternoon clouds as mid level trough moves thru the region.
Sunday/Monday and Tuesday...
Subtropical ridge builds into the Mid Atlc this period resulting in
the likelihood of a 3 day heat wave with highs well into the 90s
away from the south coast. Sunday will be breezy as gradient
tightens. This will help take some of the edge off the hot
temperatures. Given temp anomalies at 925 mb and 850 mb are
projected to run +2 standard deviations warmer (+24C to +26C at 925
mb and +18C to +20C at 850 mb) than climo highs may climb into the
mid and upper 90s each day! Thus added 2-4 degs to guidance each day
and that may still be too cool. Later shifts may need to go even
warmer than guidance. Mainly dry weather as well with the exception
of Tue with a low risk of convection ahead of backdoor cold front.
It will be humid too with dew pts in the 60s.
Wednesday and Thursday...
Heat wave breaks and is replaced by much more seasonable airmass
with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s as Canadian high pressure
builds southward from Quebec. Coolest temps across eastern MA and
warmest weather in the CT River Valley.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Friday Night/...
1030 PM Update...
Overnight...Moderate confidence.
Conditions will lower to MVFR-IFR across Cape Cod and the
islands with areas of rain and patchy fog moving thru that area.
Elsewhere, mainly VFR. Chance for rain late tonight, probably
07z to 10z, as far west as BOS-PVD. N-NE wind gusts up to 20-30
kt across mid and outer Cape and islands after midnight.
Friday...Moderate confidence.
Any MVFR-IFR conditions across the Cape and islands should
improve to VFR though showers may linger. Will see scattered
showers across the region as upper level disturbance moves
across. Isolated thunderstorms possible mainly across central
and western areas, but isolated thunder could reach as far east
coastal MA late in the day. N wind gusts up to 25-30 kt through
midday across the Cape and islands.
Friday night...High confidence. VFR.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF, except there is a low chance
of a period of sea breeze conditions Friday morning. This is not
reflected at this time in the TAF but a low possibility that
needs to be monitored. Otherwise, may get a trace of rain with
probably a 30 percent chance or less of measure during early
morning hours.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...Moderate confidence.
VFR much of the day. Only minor issue will be marginal MVFR-VFR Sat
afternoon in widely scattered showers/isolated Thunder. Winds only
an issue Sunday afternoon with WSW winds gusting up to 25 kt
possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Friday Night/...
Overnight...Moderate confidence.
Expect E winds to back to NE and increase after midnight. Gusts
up to 25-30 kt expected mainly across Nantucket Sound and the
southern outer waters to E and S of Cape Cod and Nantucket.
Seas will also build to around 5-7 ft, up to 8 ft E of Cape Cod
toward daybreak. Visibility restrictions overnight in areas of
rain and patchy fog. Small crafts remain in effect for later
tonight for most of the open waters.
Friday...Moderate confidence.
Winds shift to N-NW with gusts up to 25-30 kt on the eastern
outer waters as well as Nantucket Sound and Cape Cod Bay Fri
morning, then diminishing. Seas on the outer coastal waters and
RI/BI Sounds remain at 5-7 ft thru the day. Showers linger in
the morning with local visibility restrictions.
Friday night...Moderate confidence.
SW winds 20 knots or less. Seas will be 5 to 7 feet on the
outer waters and exposed southern waters Friday night, gradually
subsiding.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday...
Isolated T-storm possible in the afternoon near shore.
Sunday...
WSW winds may gusts up to 25 kt near shore.
Mon and Tue...
modest WSW winds. Dramatic wind shift from WNW Tue to NE sometime
Tue night into Wed.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Here are the record highs for Sun (6-11), Mon (6-12) and Tue
(6-13) of next week.
...BOS... ...PVD... ...ORH... ...BDL...
6/11...98/1954...95/1873...91/1984...98/1973
6/12...96/1973...94/1973...90/1973...97/1973
6/13...98/1984...94/1956...92/1984...96/1984
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ232.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM EDT Friday for ANZ231.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday for
ANZ235-237.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM EDT Saturday for
ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ254-255.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/NMB
NEAR TERM...EVT/Thompson
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...Nocera
AVIATION...Nocera/EVT/Thompson
MARINE...Nocera/EVT/Thompson
CLIMATE...Staff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1003 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017
Some showers will likely move into the region early Friday before
exiting the area. Additional showers and a few thunderstorms may
develop Friday afternoon particularly east of US 131. A warm up is
expected this weekend into early next week with highs well into
the 80s and perhaps some 90s making their first appearance this
year. Some thunderstorms may impact central and northern Lower
Michigan at times with this pattern taking shape.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017
Will limit the mention of thunder (slgt chc) tonight to just the
NW portion of the CWFA including Ludington/Muskegon - only through
06z. RAP guidance has 200-400 J/KG of MUCape in this region
through 06z and there are some storms upstream over NE WI.
Otherwise mostly cloudy (or becoming mostly cloudy east of hwy
131) with isolated to scattered light rain showers. The 00z
soundings at DTX and APX are very dry so measurable pcpn may be
difficult to come by through 12z. Much of this will probably just
be sprinkles/virga.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017
The primary forecast challenge is determining rain chances tonight
into Friday and whether portions of Lower Michigan may get clipped
by any storms late Saturday night into Sunday morning.
GOES-16 mid level water vapor imagery this afternoon is resolving
the H500 shortwave trough across Lake Superior, which will move
southeast tonight and help draw a 25-30 kt LLJ core over southern
Lake Michigan between 00z and 06z. A weak surface low is forecast to
cross northern Lake Michigan during that time. H500-H850 RH is shown
to increase to 80%-90% over western Lower Michigan by 06z as PW
values climb to 1.00"-1.20". There should be at least some showers
moving through western Lower especially from 06z-12z. MUCAPE barely
registers above zero, so thunderstorms are not likely, but a slight
chance mention is still prudent.
After the Friday morning showers press east into central and south
central Lower MI, daytime instability should recover. SBCAPE will
likely exceed 1000 J/kg by 18z near and east of US 131. Also, upper
level support arrives by this time coincident with the surface low
moving through. The ULJ core should be about 80 kts as it noses into
central Lower. The best upper level divergence is shown to occur
across this region as well as eastern Lower. This is the favored
region for afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity. Deep layer
shear is only 25-30 kts, not very good for organized, strong
convection. Still, SBCAPE coupled with LI values of -2 to -4 would
support some storms, given the other factors mentioned. I`m thinking
the westerly H850 and surface flow off Lake Michigan during the day
should create a dry buffer zone for much of the lake shore region
extending toward US 131, but will maintain a small risk for rain
there.
After a dry and breezy Saturday, the first in a series of ridge
rider MCSs is likely to develop across the Midwest Saturday night.
While the upper level forcing will clearly reside across Upper
Michigan and Northern Lower, questions remain about whether ridge
amplification will be sufficient enough to keep the MCS north of
our region, and also whether elevated instability will tend to
buckle southeast into our region from Wisconsin during the late
night hours. The ECMWF, GFS, and GEM all show MUCAPE increasing
across western Lower MI between 06z and 12z Sunday. MCSs tend to
propagate toward the instability axis so we will have to monitor
trends. Our latest forecast is featuring a 30% probability of
storms making it into our lake shore region north of Whitehall by
early Sunday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017
Little question it will be warm and humid through at least Wednesday
of this coming week. The best chance of meaningful rain (greater
than the daily mean evaporation rate of .2 inch/day) would be
Wednesday into Thursday.
The big picture shows three large storms over the northern Pacific
into extreme eastern Russia this morning. There is a large upper
ridge over the western CONUS that has an extension that leans
northwest across Alaska into northeast Russia. That ridge is on top
of all of the systems over the north Pacific. The three systems
track east over the next 3 days so that by Sunday we have a large
but sort of flat ridge over the eastern CONUS with our 3 storms
having moves east about about 20 degrees of longitude eastward.
However by then we have ridge over western Canada across Alaska into
eastern Russia north of those 3 storms. We also have a polar vortex
looking circulation centered over northern Hudson Bay. Over time
an omega block develops over the mid Pacific between those two
more western storm systems while the system that moved into the
western CONUS tries to shear out north of the Western Great Lakes
(by Wednesday). Beyond that the models struggle with how to play
out the omega block with those two western storm. What all of this
does for Southwest Michigan is keep us in the warm humid air into
Wednesday for sure. At some point, likely later Wed or Thursday
we should see thunderstorms from the cold pool of air assoicated
with the shearing out lead upper low.
Since we do get that "polar vortex" looking system over Hudson by
early next week, that will try to push a cold front into northern
Michigan which could lead to some thunderstorms over our northern
CWA early next week. Even so based on the 850 temps near 20c and
1000 to 850 thickness are near 1420, all of those tell me highs
will be in the lower 90s so I am sticking with that. Beside our
verification shows us running 4 to 6 degrees to cold for days
3-4-5-6 and 7 for the past 2 weeks.
Bottom line warm and humid with thunderstorms later Wed into
Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 757 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017
Cloud bases upstream are mostly above 8000 ft, so despite the
scattered showers on radar heading this way will keep the TAFs VFR
tonight and Friday. The air mass over lwr MI is currently quite
dry with sfc RHs in the 20s and 30s, so much of what comes through
should be light or just virga.
Based on the latest RAP MUCape progs showing only a couple
hundred joules at best, the threat of thunder is too low tonight
and Friday morning to have any CBs in the TAFs. However, the
threat of thunder is better on Friday afternoon east of GRR/BTL,
so have included a mention of thunder/CBs at LAN and JXN after
16Z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017
The first breezy day will be Saturday. Certainly could be some
gusts to 30 kts over the open waters and perhaps the nearshore
zones as well. This will create a rough chop on the lake
especially north of Holland this weekend. Boaters should be aware
of unfavorable conditions mainly Saturday afternoon and evening.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017
River levels are around normal for this time of year, and much below
bankfull. A little precipitation is possible tonight into Friday,
with under a quarter of an inch expected. The next chance for rain
doesn`t come until Tuesday night next week. Rivers may experience
small rises, but no flooding is expected through next week.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Meade
SYNOPSIS...Hoving
SHORT TERM...Hoving
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...Meade
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...Hoving
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
946 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017
Weak mid level isentropic lift has led to some mid level cloud cover
developing to the west and southwest of Wichita. Expect to see some
increasing mid level clouds for portions of south Central and
Central KS overnight, as weak isentropic lift continues through Fri
morning. Latest RAP shows mid level warm advection and moisture
transport over SW KS doesn`t really shift NE into south Central KS
overnight, which will limit the chance of isolated elevated showers
or storms developing late tonight or early Fri morning. So think
the chances for Fri morning storms is diminishing. Latest hi-rez
model solutions seem to support this decreasing storm chance, as the
NAM/NNM is the only solution that shows any storm development over
south Central KS for Fri morning. So will cut back on pop chances
for areas west of I-135 through Fri morning. Will keep a small
chance in, in case a stray storm can develop by sunrise on Fri.
Ketcham
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017
A remnant MCV in South Central Kansas is keeping some showers and
thunderstorms going. This activity will slowly move to the east
this afternoon and into the overnight hours. This moisture will be
the only chance for precipitation tonight and early Friday. The
forcing with this MCV will be replaced by a rather strong cap
during the day Friday as a strong ridge move into the region. This
will remove the rain chances from the forecast. The weekend looks
hot and dry. Additionally, the pressure gradient will tighten up
and will allow the winds to pick up. Saturday and especially
Sunday look to be windiest days. Advisory winds are possible both
days.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017
A frontal system will be approaching the region Monday and Tuesday
which will keep the pressure gradient rather tight. This will
continue to keep winds on the brisk side for Monday and Tuesday.
The strong southerly winds will also help keep hot temperatures in
the mix with mid 90s possible. Moisture transport ahead of the
next system will bring the needed moisture into the region and
the front will provide the forcing. This will bring the chances
for precipitation back into the forecast. This also raises the
specter of severe weather as well as the conditions look favorable
for some scattered severe thunderstorms Wednesday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. There is a slight
chance of some altocumulus and possibly some isolated VCTS near KRSL
and KGBD from 09-12z/fri. So will add this mention to the
tafs.
Ketcham
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 62 88 69 92 / 20 20 0 0
Hutchinson 62 89 69 93 / 20 10 0 0
Newton 61 88 68 91 / 20 10 0 0
ElDorado 61 87 68 90 / 10 10 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 62 88 69 91 / 10 10 0 0
Russell 62 91 69 96 / 30 10 0 0
Great Bend 62 90 68 95 / 30 10 0 0
Salina 62 90 70 95 / 20 10 0 0
McPherson 61 89 69 93 / 20 10 0 0
Coffeyville 59 85 66 88 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 59 86 66 88 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 59 86 66 88 / 0 0 0 0
Parsons-KPPF 59 86 66 88 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BDK
SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...Ketcham
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1002 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 PM EDT THU JUN 8 2017
Thunder chances have exited eastern Kentucky this evening, with
only isolated showers possible across eastern Pike County prior to
midnight. Increased fog wording a bit to account for clearing
trends as high pressure builds into eastern Kentucky.
UPDATE Issued at 828 PM EDT THU JUN 8 2017
Showers continue to wind down across far eastern Kentucky as the
well-advertised upper trough pulls east. High pressure nudging
into eastern kentucky from the west will lead to clearing skies
this evening and tonight, thus promoting fog development tonight
into Friday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT THU JUN 8 2017
Surface analysis shows high pressure to our east and east surface
trough nearby. Overall most locations remain dry this afternoon,
but a few showers and thunderstorms have developed along and near
the high terrain of SE KY. Therefore, concentrated overall better
POP coverage in these locations with slight chances further west.
Right now prefer the HRRR TL in general for coverage is expresses
compared to other CAMs. Otherwise clouds will begin to lessen in
coverage through the night for most, and this will lead to
potential for fog overnight especially in areas that get added
moisture from showers and thunderstorms and nearer bodies of
water. There will also be a potential for some temperature splits.
An area of surface high pressure will progress east along with
height rises as upper level trough finally moves east to round
out the short term. This will lead to a dry stretch, with clearing
skies (besides afternoon CU) and warming temperatures through the
remainder of the period. That said, temperatures will creep back
up to near normal for Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT THU JUN 8 2017
Models are in good agreement with the mid and upper level pattern
through the bulk of the period. Ridging will build across the
eastern half of the CONUS and remain in place until late in the
period, Dys 6-7, when energy associated with an Intermountain West
low pressure system will begin to move into the Ohio Valley while
the parent low tracks into central Canada. The 12Z GFS and Canadian
do bring a bit more "troughiness" into the region by late Wednesday,
but the 0Z ECMWF holds off on that energy until Thursday. This weak
shortwave energy also appears strong enough to erode the strong cap
in place over our area by late Wednesday and/or Thursday. At the
surface high pressure remains solidly dug in and centered roughly
over the southern Appalachians. As a result a surface cold frontal
boundary barely manages to push through the Upper Midwest by
Thursday before stalling out well to our northwest.
Sensible weather looks dry and quite warm in general, with
humidities on the increase as well with time. Daily highs will run
well into the mid 80s each day and possibly even flirt with some
upper 80s to around 90 for a few locations. H850 temps do support
such numbers, advertised to rise to around 18 degrees by Sunday and
then level off thereafter. The ECMWF does run slightly cooler which
is reflected in guidance. Increasing moisture will drive dew points
into the mid 60s by Sunday/Monday, making the heat that much more
uncomfortable. This will tend to keep overnight lows up, well into
the 60s. With the weakening cap we can expect some isolated to
possibly scattered, mainly afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms towards the end of the extended. At present convection
appears to be more typical of a hit and miss summertime pattern.
However, that may change should any shortwave energy be strong
enough to help convection become a bit more organized. Bottom line,
typical weather for meteorological summer and good prep for the
approach of astronomical summer.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 828 PM EDT THU JUN 8 2017
Current VFR conditions will likely deteriorate after midnight
through early-mid Friday morning as clearing skies lead to fog
formation. Earliest and quickest clearing will be near SME/LOZ,
but greater moisture content will be found farther east nearer to
SJS. MVFR/IFR visibilities/ceilings look to be a good bet for all
sites, with LIFR/VLIFR also possible at times through mid Friday
morning. VFR conditions will return thereafter as northwest to
southwest winds increase to near 5 knots.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GUSEMAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
934 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017
.UPDATE...
Tonight...A much more subdued pattern, with respect to convection,
will be on tap as drier air aloft was working down into the central
peninsula behind a shortwave trough lifting out to the northeast.
00z Tampa sounding had 1.1 inches of precipitable water, but Cape
Canaveral was still around 1.5 inches due to more moist north to
northeast flow.
A weakening frontal boundary will stall and start to wash out over
the area. Lingering widely scattered showers over southern sections
ahead of the boundary were diminishing with loss of daytime heating.
There have been a few Atlantic showers in the north/northeast flow,
and the HRRR continues them overnight, but the onshore low level
winds are forecast to weaken, so will not carry any coastal POPS.
Weakly cyclonic low level flow, after a showery day, points to
considerable low cloudiness. Guidance shows these clouds will be
too dominant for any significant fog.
Won`t be making any major changes. Plan to lower POPs over the
north/central coastal waters.
Friday...Surface boundary will stall/wash out over the area,
bringing a gradient in moisture with drier air to the north and
wetter to the south. Expect onshore flow behind the boundary to lead
to a rather quick development of the sea breeze over northern and
central areas, confining higher rain chances (still only around 30%)
to inland areas. Deeper moisture across our southern zones
(Okeechobee / Treasure Coast) should allow for a more active day
there, so will maintain 40-50% PoPs. Expect a bit more sunshine once
morning low clouds burn off, so it will feel warmer with mid to
upper 80s coast and around 90 over the interior.
&&
.AVIATION...
Another round of IFR to low MVFR stratus is expected to develop
overnight and continue into Friday morning. Higher moisture residing
across our southern areas on Friday should lead to a higher chance
for afternoon SHRA/TSRA across our Treasure Coast terminals (KVRB
south) and points inland. More isolated activity expected to the
north.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight-Friday...Improved boating conditions Fri. Weak surface
frontal boundary pushed down to about Stuart, but northerly winds
were weak across the southern waters. The gradient was a little
tighter in the central/north waters, supporting near 15 knots along
with seas 4-6 feet, necessitating an Exercise Caution Statement. The
gradient will weaken as the boundary starts to wash out and by Fri
winds should be northeast around 10 knots in the north, and variable
5 to 10 knots in the south. Seas should run a little higher than
normal for these wind speeds due to a northeast swell.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...Lascody
IMPACT WX...Blottman/Smith
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1058 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017
Dry weather expected for most locations across Minnesota and western
Wisconsin today through Friday. Early afternoon satellite imagery
together with surface obs and RAP analysis showed a weak boundary
south of I-90 with some agitated cumulus and a few showers
developing along it. There was another area of shallow convection
across western Wisconsin.
These two areas will be the focus for a slight chance for showers or
an isolated thunderstorm later today. The frontal boundary across I-
90 will stall out and become north/south oriented as a warm front
that will begin to push through the region on Friday. Based on the
recent trends with temperatures, went on the high side of guidance
once again. A few afternoon clouds will develop which will keep
temperatures somewhat at bay. Afternoon storms will fire across far
northern North Dakota, but these will remain well north of the
northern part of the Twin Cities forecast area.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017
The longer term concerns remain heat/humidity especially Saturday
over the far south Sunday and building again regionwide Monday and
Tuesday ahead of the midweek cold front. The severe weather threat
increase some to the far east Saturday night, with the main threat
developing Sunday and again Tuesday into Wednesday.
Saturday is expected to be windy and hot most areas ahead of the
incoming cool front from the Dakotas. Most models drive this
feature eastward, really bisecting the area NE-SW by Saturday
evening. With the thermal ridge out ahead of the front we
shouldn`thave much of a problem seeing 95 to 100F over much of
the CWA especially with a gusty s-sw wind around 30 mph ahead of
the boundary. Heat indices are forecast around 100 as well making
for uncomfortable conditions. Mid level temperatures surge
northeast across the cwa Saturday morning and is expected to
retard any convection much of the day. There is a small chance of
development on the northeast edge of the cap which is suppose to
work slowly southeast Saturday night. We did retain small chance
PoPs for this occurring over the eastern CWA. If convection did
develop, severe weather parameters point to at least some chance
of severe storms with hail and strong winds the main threat.
This boundary is forecast to drive south along the MN/IA border by
12Z Sunday. If is forecast to lift north again Sunday into the
central portion of the area by afternoon. A short wave is forecast
to move across South Dakota Sunday morning and with very unstable
conditions developing along and south of the front, severe
convection will be a good bet. This along with potential heavy
rain as well with PWATs nearing 2 inches by Sunday evening.
Convection may develop early and just spread slowly east during
the day into Sunday night.
The boundary is forecast to lift north again Monday as southerly
flow once again becomes established as the western CONUS trough
spreads east. The thunder threat will continue to the north of the
front. Hot and humid conditions will continue through Tuesday.
There are some timing differences regarding the cold front for
midweek, with the GFS a bit faster.
Cooler temperatures/near normal follow this front for the rest of
the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light north winds
will become east overnight and then increase southeast Friday
afternoon to 10-15 kt.
KMSP...No additional concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Wind SW at 25G35kt.
Sun...VFR. TSRA likely, MVFR or lower possible. Wind E at 10kt.
Mon...VFR. Chc TSRA. WInd SE at 5-10kt.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
446 PM PDT Thu Jun 8 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and showery weather will continue into the evening hours with
a decreasing threat of precipitation overnight. Below average
temperatures and scattered showers are expected Friday and
Saturday. We should see a break in the showers on Sunday, but
Monday has the potential for a widespread chilly rain for the
Idaho Panhandle and portions of eastern Washington.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Isolated thunderstorms were expanded into the Basin, Waterville
Plateau, and southern portions of the Northern Mountains as well
as the Spokane-Cd`A areas. Clearing behind the midday cold front
and associated band of rain is resulting in areas of showers with
embedded thunderstorms. HRRR is picking this activity up well and
indicates it will track to the east for the next few hours. The
main threats will be heavy downpours of rain and small hail which
could result in gusty outflow winds on the order of 30-40 mph. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A steady band of rain will continue to lift to the
northeast out of NE WA and N ID through 02z. Clearing behind this
wave has resulted in re-developing convection with isolated
t-storms between KALW...KMWH...and KOMK. Brief heavy rain, small
hail, and gusty outflow winds will be the main threats with these
storms.. This second band of broken showers/storms will track east
reaching the Spokane-Cd`A near 03z. Once this activity tracks east
of the terminals, expect a threat for showers through the evening
then becoming drier overnight. The moist boundary layer will
result in patchy fog across the far northeastern valleys but
light westerly winds suggest a low threat for any restrictions
across the open Columbia Basin. Cumulus to build again Friday with
afternoon heating with the main threat for showers in the Cascades
and arnd Lewiston. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 47 64 45 64 45 69 / 60 10 10 20 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 47 64 45 63 42 70 / 60 20 10 20 10 10
Pullman 46 62 44 60 43 65 / 80 30 30 30 10 30
Lewiston 51 67 48 67 47 69 / 90 40 60 40 10 50
Colville 47 66 45 66 44 73 / 60 20 20 50 20 10
Sandpoint 45 64 42 62 40 69 / 80 20 20 30 10 10
Kellogg 45 61 43 60 41 65 / 80 30 40 40 10 20
Moses Lake 46 70 46 70 46 75 / 60 10 10 20 10 10
Wenatchee 48 68 47 69 48 73 / 70 40 50 30 20 10
Omak 46 69 45 68 46 74 / 70 20 40 40 30 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
318 PM MDT Thu Jun 8 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Thu Jun 8 2017
Tonight an upper ridge will be shifting eastward over the state the
the axis expected to be about centered over CO by 12Z Fri. Then on
Fri the ridge axis continues moving eastward over western KS by late
in the afternoon.
This afternoon, storms have been confined mostly over and near the
eastern mountains and the southwest mountains, with just a few
storms making it farther east over El Paso county. The NAM and HRRR
forecast for this evening show this pattern continuing, with storms
mainly focused over the Sangres and Wet mtns, and maybe over the
plains south of highway 50. Will just go with some isolated POPs
for the early evening hours acrs the plains, eastern mtns, southern
San Luis Valley and the southwest mtns, then trending toward dry all
areas by midnight.
On Fri, drier air will be over the forecast area and will go with a
dry forecast, along with warmer temps. Should see highs in the 90s
across the plains, and in the 80s in the high valleys.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Thu Jun 8 2017
...Drier and hotter into early next week...
Expect a shift in the weather pattern through the weekend into
early next week with hot and dry weather. While it may cool off a
few degrees through the middle of next week, it will remain warm
and dry. Models are in agreement with this pattern and ensemble
spreads are generally small.
Friday night through Monday...Friday night will remain dry with
low temperatures around 60 across the plains and mid 40s in the
mountain valleys.
On Saturday, with the upper ridge axis shifted to our east and large
upper low centered over the Pacific Northwest Coast, fairly strong
southwest flow will prevail at the upper levels across Colorado.
This flow regime will bring dry weather back to southern Colorado,
with no precip expected on Saturday. The strong flow aloft will mix
down to the surface during the afternoon and early evening leading
to windy conditions. The plains and valleys can expect sustained
winds of 15-20 mph gusting to 20-30 mph. Additionally, downslope
flow will lead to hot temperatures and very low relative humidity
values in the mountain valleys and eastern plains. Given the
recent wet period across the eastern plains and valleys, the
threat for rapid wildfire spread will remain low despite Red Flag
weather conditions (strong winds and low RH). High temperatures
across the plains will run around 15 degrees fahrenheit above
average, pushing 100 degrees along and east of the I-25 corridor.
Sunday and Monday...not much change to the upper pattern with an
upper low slowly drifting into the Northern Rockies. This will
keep dry southwesterly flow across Colorado allowing for strong
afternoon mixing. Gusty winds will continue at the surface and
temperatures are forecast to remain in the 90s to lower 100s. In
addition, fire weather conditions may become more critical as we
move into Monday. Several days of hot, dry conditions may allow
for fine fuels to become more susceptible to fire ignition. We
will continue to monitor fuels with land management agencies
through the weekend into early next week. No precipitation is
anticipated through Monday.
Tuesday through Thursday...the upper level low will continue east
across the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes. A cold front will
drop south across the region by Tuesday with slightly cooler air.
This will keep highs generally in the 80s to mid 90s for the lower
elevations. Flow aloft will remain westerly and dry, keeping
precipitation chances nil across southern Colorado. Fire weather
conditions will likely remain elevated, however, winds are likely
to be marginal. Line/Mozley
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Thu Jun 8 2017
KALS could see showers/tstms in the vicinity through about 02Z, and
gusty outflow winds could affect the site. Otherwise KALS should
have VFR conditions through Fri, with southwest winds picking up in
the afternoon hours with gusts of 20-25 kts.
KPUB and KCOS are expected to have VFR conditions for the next 24
hrs. There is a small chance for showers or tstms to move into the
vicinity of KPUB and KCOS early this evening, with gusty erratic
winds being a threat.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...LINE/MOZLEY
AVIATION...28
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
630 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR conditions will persist through the evening and into Friday
afternoon for the KSJT, KSOA and KBBD terminals. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible by 10Z, impacting the KABI
terminal. Brief MVFR conditions are possible with these showers
and thunderstorms. Development of afternoon thunderstorms could
impact the southern terminals by 18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)
All models show some type of convective complex developing late this
afternoon and early this evening across the South Plains, and then
moving southeast into West Central Texas after midnight. The models
differ however, on the track of the system and thus where the rain
end up. The GFS is farther east, moving across portions of the
northern and eastern Big Country and into North Central Texas. The
latest WRF from Texas Tech show a complex farther west, with the
brunt of it dropping south across the western Big Country into the
Concho Valley by morning. The HRRR has something in the middle, with
a broader complex of storms that covers a wider area. At this point,
will increase PoP`s slightly for tonight and tomorrow morning over
an area mainly north of a San Angelo to Brownwood line. Given the
chance that this system will be strong enough to leave some sort of
outflow boundary across the area, will include a mention of isolated
storms for tomorrow afternoon all the way south to Interstate 10 as
well.
Temperatures will not be changing very much, so lows in the upper
60s and lower 70s, with highs in the mid and upper 90s look good.
LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
For this weekend, a weak closed low is forecast to develop
near the Texas/Louisiana border and then drift south-
southwest to just east of Brownsville by Sunday. Weak upper ridging
will be in place to the north of this low over the southern Plains.
This pattern is expected to result in minimal rain chances for our
area during the weekend. While little change is expected with our
high temperatures, expect an uptick in overnight lows as dewpoints
increase with south-southeast low-level flow. Breezy conditions are
expected with lee surface trough to our west and increased pressure
gradient across our area.
Early next week, an upper low over the western CONUS will lift
northeast across the northern Rockies by Tuesday, and into the
northern Plains late Tuesday night into Wednesday. An upper level
high will be centered over Mexico, with an extension into
southwestern Texas. This will be our dominant weather feature
through the first half of the week. Afternon highs are forecast to
be in the lower to mid 90s, with overnight lows mostly in the lower
70s. By late week, quasi-zonal flow aloft is progged to the north of
the aforementioned high, with the possibility of a couple of
embedded disturbances moving east across the southern Rockies into
the southern Plains. This may increase rain chances for the northern
part of our area by Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 71 93 71 94 / 30 20 5 5
San Angelo 71 94 70 96 / 10 20 5 5
Junction 69 90 69 92 / 10 20 5 0
Brownwood 70 90 68 92 / 20 20 5 5
Sweetwater 70 95 70 95 / 30 20 5 5
Ozona 69 95 70 94 / 5 20 5 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
99/99/40