Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/08/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
540 PM MDT Wed Jun 7 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 355 PM MDT Wed Jun 7 2017
Current KCYS radar loop over western Nebraska shows scattered
thunderstorms just north of the I-80 corridor this afternoon.
These thunderstorms have become strong and locally severe with
large hail and some strong winds. Believe this will continue over
the next 3 to 5 hours will additional activity developing further
north and west through this evening. These storms may also become
strong or severe with large hail and strong gusty winds.
For tonight, would not be surprised if thunderstorm activity
lingers through midnight due to a series of weak disturbances
aloft moving southeast across the area ahead of the upper level
ridge axis to the west. More organized squall lines or multi-cells
are possible as suggested by the HRRR and other high resolution
models. Otherwise, activity will gradually diminish in intensity
after midnight with patchy fog possible towards sunrise over the
areas of light winds and which received moderate to heavy
rainfall yesterday and today.
Warming trend will continue into Thursday as the upper level ridge
axis moves eastward into Wyoming. High temperatures will climb
into the 80`s over the lower elevations of southeast Wyoming with
highs likely near 90 further east. Models show well-defined warm
air advection aloft across central Wyoming as this ridge builds
into the area. Further east, there is still a threat of strong
thunderstorms as this warm and dry air aloft will be slow to
progress eastward. Believe the coverage will be more isolated
compared to the last few days however, due to this drier air
aloft. Kept POP between 20 to 25 percent near and just east of the
Laramie Range including portions of the Nebraska panhandle. Llvl
winds will gradually veer into the southwest and west Thursday
night allowing drier air closer to the surface to push into the
region. As the upper level ridge slides east of the area on
Friday, deep southwest flow is expected over the area with even
warmer temperatures. This will begin a period of warmer than
normal temperatures through the weekend with highs in the mid 80`s
to mid 90`s likely. Drier conditions will begin on Friday across
the whole area into western Nebraska.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 355 PM MDT Wed Jun 7 2017
West/southwest flow will prevail through the weekend as the next
upstream trough swings onto the West Coast. Latest model guidance
has slowed this trough about 12 hours or so compared to yesterday.
As a result, expect warm/dry conditions to linger longer, now to
include both Saturday/Sunday. H7 temperatures warm to between 15-17C
both days, which will boost high temps well into the 80s at most
spots, with even some low 90s across the western Nebraska Panhandle.
Both the GFS/ECMWF are consistent in lifting area of low pressure
from the Great Basin area on Monday, into Wyoming on Tuesday, and
the Dakotas by Wednesday. This drives a Pacific Front thru the state
Monday Night which spark off some convection, and depending upon
frontal timing, would not be surprised to see some strong-severe
convection. The trending north of this system`s track suggests drier
conditions across the CWA than earlier anticipated. Temperatures
will cool behind Pacific cold front 60s west & 70s east by the
middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 540 PM MDT Wed Jun 7 2017
Isolated to scattered convection will linger through at least mid-
evening before decreasing in areal coverage and intensity. The CYS
terminal may be impacted with TEMPO for MVFR VIS and VRBL Gusts to
35 KT with TSRA through 01Z. VFR will prevail outside the
convection, with skies becoming fair later tonight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 PM MDT Wed Jun 7 2017
No Fire Weather concerns for the rest of the week and through the
weekend with fuels in green-up. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue with a good potential of some wetting rains this
evening and once again on Thursday. Dry and very warm conditions are
expected to develop over the area by Friday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 540 PM MDT Wed Jun 7 2017
High temperatures in the mountains will increase back into the
60s later this week while low temperatures are expected to stay
above freezing. This will result in continued snowmelt and rising
creeks and main stem rivers. In addition, moderate to heavy
rainfall from showers and thunderstorms today and tonight could
increase snowmelt rate and runoff into area creeks and rivers. Will
continue to monitor the Upper North Platte River near Saratoga,
Lower North Platte River near Henry, and Encampment River at
Encampment for additional rises in river levels over the next
several days.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
HYDROLOGY...TJT/MAJ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
950 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2017
.UPDATE...
As of 950 PM EDT...Another quick update to the forecast to lower
PoPs slightly further given recent radar and satellite trends.
Latest water vapor imagery continues to show some "drier" air
filtering into northwest portions of the area, with currently dry
conditions for much of the Gulf Coast into portions of the lake
region. The earlier shortwave that helped trigger the line of
heavy showers and thunderstorms has lifted to the north, and
latest mesoscale model guidance depicts a quieter night compared
to recent nights. However, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue to be a threat, especially over
eastern areas where showers may be more numerous in vicinity of a
remnant low-level boundary, with another round of storms possibly
affecting the Gulf Coast towards daybreak.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 803 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2017/
AVIATION...
With the main line of shower and storms moving offshore this
evening, have removed TS from the sites from FLL north, and left
VCTS for OPF, south for a couple more hours. For the overnight
period, have RA in the forecast with no restrictions at this time.
Tomorrow may see another round of showers and storms, so have a
prob30 group in for each site for after 16z.
UPDATE...
Adjusted PoPs to reflect the position of the main line that came
through this evening. Have lowered them for the overnight hours
into the chance category for most of the area north of Alligator
Alley. The rain main hang on for a good portion of the night south
of there, and along the coast, so kept likely PoPs at this time.
Also, have only a slight chance of thunderstorms as models are
suggesting most of the activity will be rain. but, cant rule out
a few strikes overnight.
Also, the wind has weakened across the coastal waters, so the
small craft advisory has been cancelled at this time. As for the
Flood Watch, the ongoing rain, although it looks to be light to
moderate, could still cause some problems. So, have kept it in
place until 2am for now, with further evaluation to be done later
this evening.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2017/
DISCUSSION...
The pattern remains active through the forecast period. A low
pressure system that has brought the unsettled weather to South
Florida has moved off the Florida Panhandle coast. It is drifting
to the east southeast, and is forecast to keep slowly moving
towards Central Florida through the end of the week. The GFS is
showing the PWATs continue to run around 2 inches through the
weekend, although slightly drier air may move across the region in
waves. however, the widespread heavy of the rain is forecast to
be over by Thursday morning, with mainly localized heavy rain for
the remainder of the week. However, given the area is now
saturated, even light to moderate amounts have the potential to
cause issues on roadways, in low lying areas, and areas with poor
drainage.
For tonight, a strong line of heavy showers and strong
thunderstorms is moving across South Florida. The line is moving
northeast at around 40 kt. At this rate, it would clear the Miami
area by around 23z. There is some uncertainty with this, and also
with any lingering shower activity behind the line. Given this,
the Flood Watch has been extended through 02z. As the line exits
the area, the Watch will be re-evaluated for extension or
cancellation. The HRRR does show some activity may linger over
portions of South Florida, but may only be light to moderate
intensity.
By Thursday morning, the models are hinting the low could split,
with the main low shooting off to the northeast, ahead of a 500mb
low sitting over the mid-Atlantic states. A weaker low would break
off, and meander over Central Florida through Friday morning, when
it looks to dissipate. The main low drags a boundary south, over
the region before the boundary stalls. This will keep showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast through the weekend.
As the weekend progresses, high pressure will build to the east.
this will push the boundary slowly to the north by Sunday
afternoon. As the sfc high builds, a 500mb ridge sets up over the
southeast US. This should keep the flow aloft light. The sfc wind
turns from the south to the east by Sunday morning. This may allow
for coastal showers and a few storms to move onshore, along the
Atlantic coast. It also would push any afternoon convection to
the western interior and Gulf coast. However, convection looks to
be more isolated to scattered in nature through the beginning of
next week.
MARINE...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be likely tonight and
Thursday cross the South Florida coastal waters. The wind over
portions of the Gulf and Atlantic waters is forecast to be 20 to
25 kts through the evening, and possible overnight hours, with the
Gulf seeing wind relax in the early morning. the Atlantic is
forecast to improve by mid morning. Even with the wind subsiding,
it is still forecast to be 15 to 20 kts through the day tomorrow.
So, small craft should exercise caution in both the Atlantic and
Gulf waters through tomorrow evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 74 89 75 90 / 80 70 30 60
Fort Lauderdale 75 89 77 89 / 80 70 50 70
Miami 75 89 76 89 / 80 70 50 70
Naples 78 87 77 88 / 40 70 30 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ066>074-168-172>174.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
UPDATE...92/IRL
DISCUSSION...13
MARINE...13
AVIATION...13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
319 PM MDT Wed Jun 7 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM MDT Wed Jun 7 2017
Fairly similar pattern to yesterday in regards to moisture and CAPE
values across the area. Weak subtle perturbations moving through
the upper ridge combined with surface heating has triggered another
round of thunderstorms over the mountains. These will form a broken
line and move eastward into the adjacent I-25 corridor and southeast
plains...though without a front to help focus thunderstorms across
the plains this evening...thunderstorms are expected to become less
widespread as the move eastward and encounter less support and
perhaps a little bit of a cap. Latest runs of the HRRR seem to be
progressively pushing convection farther out onto the plains. Main
concern will be a flash flood threat for burn scars and across the
adjacent plains where soils have been saturated by recent heavy
rains. Secondary threat will be for a brief severe threat with hail
up to the size of quarters and localized wind gusts up to 60 mph.
There is a little better shear in the atmosphere (25-30 kts) but
still on the weak side of the spectrum...so thinking is for only a
marginal severe threat through 02-03z.
Thunderstorms should diminish as they move eastward and be largely
done by 06z as the move off into Kansas. Tomorrow looks like a
repeat...though with less lift and more drying moving into the west.
Activity should be a little less...but with moisture still pooling
in weak upslope flow...still can`t rule out an isolated marginal
severe storm threat...and localized flash flood threat. Temperatures
will be a few degrees warmer as we start a warming/drying trend into
the end of the work week. -KT
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM MDT Wed Jun 7 2017
Thursday night and Friday
An upper level disturbance embedded in northwest flow east of the
ridge axis will move through southern Colorado Thursday evening.
Related spotty shower and thunderstorm activity will shift south of
the CO/NM border by midnight. There is also a low chance of a shower
or thunderstorm in the Pikes Peak region before midnight. Thursday
night low temperatures will only dip into the upper 50s to around 60
across the Plains and upper 30s to low 40s in the mountain valleys.
The upper level ridge will persist over Colorado on Friday, bringing
very warm temperatures and mostly dry conditions to southern
Colorado. Parts of the eastern plains will approach 100 degrees. A
weak disturbance in the upper level flow will bring a small chance
of an isolated thunderstorm along the dryline in far eastern
Colorado Friday afternoon/early evening. Line
Friday night through Wednesday
Friday night through Sunday...The upper ridge axis shifts to the
east, and west to southwest flow aloft pushes in across Colorado for
the weekend. Look for dry and very warm conditions, with temps
climbing into the 80s for the high valleys and upper 80s to near
100F for the eastern plains. Sat remains the hottest day of the
extended forecast period, and conditions across the plains may near
critical fire weather levels depending upon how strong winds become.
Monday and Tuesday...An upper trough and associated closed low
crosses the Great Basin and northern Rockies Mon and Tue, bringing
isolated to low end scattered showers and thunderstorms to the
central mts and areas north. Temps are forecast to cool through Tue,
with highs in the 70s for the high valleys both days. The plains are
forecast to be in the 80s to mid 90s for Mon, then mid 70s to mid
80s for Tue.
Wednesday...The upper trough passes to the east and westerly zonal
flow aloft then moves in across the region. The state dries out as
temps warm into the mid 70s to mid 80s for much of the forecast
area. Moore
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 318 PM MDT Wed Jun 7 2017
KPUB and KCOS will see the best of thunderstorms through the early
evening with most activity winding down by 02z. Brief VFR cigs and
gusty erratic outflow winds up to 35 kts will be the primary concern
however cigs/vis could briefly drop into the MVFR category under the
heavier storms. Otherwise conditions will be VFR overnight with
winds decreasing through the evening. KALS will stay VFR with
erratic gusty winds from thunderstorms in the vicinity through early
evening. Thursday will see a return of diurnally driven winds under
15 kts. Thunderstorms will be more isolated with less of a chance
for TSRA at the terminals. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
633 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR conditions with light winds will prevail across the terminals
through Thursday afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are possible late Thursday morning and early afternoon, mainly
across KABI and KSJT. Given the isolated nature of any shower and
thunderstorm activity across the northern terminals, will not
include any mention of precipitation or VCTS in the latest TAF
package.
&&
40
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Latest HRRR continues to show isolated showers and storms developing
late this afternoon across the Texas South Plains and then dropping
southeast into the northwest Big Country this evening. Does not show
it making very much progress into the area however, so will continue
the mention of isolated storms roughly west of a Throckmorton to
Sweetwater line, but keep the mention out of Abilene for now.
Otherwise, low temperatures have been a little cooler than expected
the last few nights. With dewpoints in the 50s still for most areas,
forecast lows may again be a little warm. Will undercut guidance
just slightly for tonight.
(Thursday through Friday)
Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity is possible on Thursday
and Friday. The Texas Tech WRF, ECMWF, and GFS agree that the
activity will initiate west of a line from Sonora to Haskell late
Thursday morning. The developing storms will move southeasterly
through the area into the afternoon hours. Northwest flow will allow
for minimal capping to occur. This coupled with MUCAPE values near
1500-2000 j/kg combined with 25 to 30 kts of 0-6 km shear will allow
for one or two strong storms to develop. However, the majority of
the activity is expected to be below severe levels, which is in
agreement with the SPC outlooks. On Friday, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to redevelop mainly north of the I-10
corridor and further south near Coleman and Brownwood on Friday.
Higher MUCAPE values of near 2000-2500 j/kg combined with 25 to 30
kts of 0-6km shear will again allow for a few strong thunderstorms.
Otherwise, partly cloudy skies will allow high temperatures to be in
the upper 80s to the lower 90s, which is just above normal for this
time of year.
LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
The upper ridge will gradually move east through the weekend, thus
limiting our rain chances and increasing our temperatures. Highs
will be solidly in the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. By the early to the middle part of next
week, the aforementioned upper ridge will flatten out and be
pushed south of the area as an upper trough pushes towards the
Northern Plains. Minimal rain chances will return to the area as
the dryline comes more into play, especially across the northern
and western portions of the forecast area. Highs will generally
remain in the mid to upper 90s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 67 88 69 92 / 10 20 20 20
San Angelo 65 92 69 94 / 10 20 10 20
Junction 65 89 68 89 / 10 20 20 20
Brownwood 65 88 67 90 / 10 20 20 20
Sweetwater 67 90 69 93 / 20 20 10 20
Ozona 63 92 67 92 / 10 20 5 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
99/99/40