Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/07/17

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1001 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 954 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Plains showers winding down as expected. HRRR continues to insist we`ll have a batch of thunderstorms 4-8 hours out--a moving target it has had all afternoon and evening. I see no reason for this. The upstream convection in the Cheyenne-Laramie area has also faded. There is more upstream of that but it does not appear to be sparked by any organizing feature that would move this way. Surface wind flow is light and should not produce enough convergence to break the capping inversion. There could be a little stratus/fog over the northeast late tonight, but the extent will be limited if there is any. Still looks like some warming aloft will limit convection on the plains tomorrow, though there will be rich low level moisture to tap if it were to get warm enough. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 306 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Storms developed as expected in the mountains and foothills, but so far airmass has remained capped on the plains per latest AMDAR soundings and only shallow cumulus. Only a degree or two of further warming would break the cap, but thicker cloud deck spreading out from mountain convection is holding that at bay. We should still see some development on the plains through the early evening hours as long as there`s sufficient convective boundary collisions. We will keep a chance of thunderstorms down onto the I-25 Corridor and adjacent plains, but lower those chances per latest trends and uncertainty whether or not cap breaks. Still isolated severe threat but CAPES a little lower than earlier progged, now in the 800-1500 J/kg range. Heavy rain would be the main threat with precipitable water values 0.75 to 1.0 inch. Models have overdone these a bit as evidenced by the latest integrated precipitable water from GPS-MET. Convective activity will slowly diminish later this evening with partial clearing late. On Wednesday, morning sunshine and plenty of moisture should allow for more convective development during the afternoon. In fact, looks like nearly a repeat of today with 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE, similar precipitable water values, and weak shear with isolated severe storm threat. Numerous showers/storms expected over the mountains and foothills, with a chance down onto the plains. Temperatures just a couple degrees warmer. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 306 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2017 There will be a significant upper level ridge of high pressure over Colorado Wednesday night through Friday night. The upper ridge axis will move from the western border at 00Z late Wednesday to over the eastern border by 06Z Friday night. The flow aloft will be weak all five periods. The synoptic scale energy will be benign through the period. The low level wind progs show normal diurnal wind patterns, with drainage at night, and weak upslope in the days. For moisture, there is quite a bit Wednesday evening, less Thursday, and very little on Friday. Precipitable water values are in the 0.75 to 1.25 inch range Wednesday evening. There are in the 0.50 to 1.00 inch range late day Thursday. Models have it drying out quite a bit Friday with values in the 0.25 to 0.50 inch range. Surface dew points are in the 50s F Wednesday night. They are in the mid 40s foothills and western plains to the mid 50s F eastern plains late day Thursday. Models show pretty high CAPE values Wednesday evening, the highest over the foothills. There are high CAPE values late day Thursday, the highest over the eastern half of the plains. There is almost no CAPE progged on Friday. The best stability profile for convection would be Wednesday evening. There is a weak mid level cap in place for some of the CWA late day Thursday. The cap is strong late day Friday. The QPF fields have measurable rainfall over most of the CWA, with the highest amounts over the mountains and foothills. There is less coverage late day Thursday and it is mainly over the southwestern CWA. There is a tiny bit of measurable rainfall over the northeast corner late day Friday on only one of the models. For pops, will go with 20-40%s Wednesday evening. Will go with 0-20%s late day Thursday. No pops anywhere on Friday and Friday night. For temperatures, Thursday`s highs are 3-7 C warmer than Wednesday`s. Friday`s highs warm up another 1-4 C from Thursday`s. For the later days, Saturday through Tuesday, models have a strong upper closed low off the northwestern United States coast Saturday and Saturday night. The upper trough gets into the Great basin by Sunday afternoon. The upper trough axis is over the western Colorado border Monday night. The system moves across the CWA on Tuesday. So it is all southwesterly flow aloft for Colorado Saturday through Monday night. A cold front is progged to move across the CWA Monday night but only on the GFS. Models don`t seem to have enough moisture and QPF with this magnitude of a system, but it is still several days away. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 954 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2017 VFR through Wednesday morning. There is a chance of thunderstorms after 20z, especially over the mountains. Wind gusts to 40 knots are the main threat, though localized MVFR visibilities are also possible. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Gimmestad SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch LONG TERM...RJK AVIATION...Gimmestad
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
949 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving upper low will meander over the region right through Thursday bringing a couple more days of unseasonably cool temperatures along with periods of unsettled weather. A weak cold front will cross the region early this weekend before an extended period of much warmer and drier conditions develops for at least the first half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Diurnal showers are slowly dwindling in number and coverage late this evening but will take a few more hours to dissipate altogether. Think by 07z all will be gone...but as upper trof fills and flattens in response to upstream upper level ridging, easterly component to the boundary layer flow will allow light showers to retrograde across eastern and central PA overnight. Latest HRRR and previous SREF/GLAMP guidance in good agreement on settling a blanket of low clouds over central PA as flow turns to the north and then northeast. As a result...keeping slgt chc pops going from 07z through 12z overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... The inverted trough and compact upper trough will sag south toward the Mid Atlantic Piedmont region Wednesday, leaving a very chilly and mainly cloudy airmass with a light to moderate East to NE breeze. Diurnal, isolated-scattered showers will shift to Central and Southwest part of the CWA with just a few- svrl hundredths of an inch of rainfall occurring during the daylight hours Wed. Around 0.10 of an inch is possible across the Laurel Highlands. Clouds will hang tough across the west and break up a bit in the east during the afternoon. The coolest temps appear to be Wednesday into Thursday, when daytime highs may struggle to climb out of the 50s in some locations of northern and western PA with the upper low and coolest 850 mb temps right across that part of the state. The high temps Wed will be 12-14 deg F below normal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Little change is expected for Thursday as the cold upper low drifts almost right overhead. Look for scattered afternoon showers, with just a very low prob for TSRA, considering the cool low cape environment. Max temps will warm just 1-3F from Wednesday, and highs will range from the low 60s across the Laurel Highlands to near 60F in the southeast. A weak front will drop southeast late Friday or Saturday, with a chance for a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. Temperatures will slowly edge back closer to normal toward the end of the upcoming week and this weekend. Dry and very warm weather expected the latter half of the long term period as upper ridging is forecast to build quickly across the Middle Atlantic states early next week. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The radar at 7pm continues very active with with numerous small fast moving showers and isolated thunderstorms rotating down in the NW flow around the unseasonably strong upper low. Conditions are mainly VFR with the showers bringing brief localized restrictions. The HRRR shows the showers shrinking in coverage as we lose the heating this evening, however low level moisture is forecast to become trapped under an inversion bringing a generalized lowering of ceilings overnight. MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue through Wednesday morning with slow improvement during the afternoon. .OUTLOOK... Thu-Sat...Mainly VFR with isold-sct showers/tstms. Sun...No sig Wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert/RXR NEAR TERM...DeVoir/RXR SHORT TERM...Lambert/RXR LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...La Corte
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
650 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 ...Updated aviation discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Instability is increasing across SW KS as of midday, with SPC mesoanalysis showing ML CAPE near 1000 J/kg and lifted index of near -4. Strong heating into the upper 80s will remove what is left of the convective inhibition, with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon. Initial activity already developing near Hays. HRRR has been very aggressive with convective coverage this afternoon for several runs, and earlier increased pop grids for the northern zones this afternoon. Storms will propagate generally S/SE once formed, given the NWly flow aloft. The threat of severe weather is marginal. Deep layer shear is weak, but easterly upslope surface winds will help encourage storm relative inflow and some updraft strength. Strong to marginally severe storms are possible through this evening, with wind gusts of 50-60 mph the primary threat. Have high confidence that scattered thunderstorms will exist, but very low confidence on exact coverage and placement. All models have their own ideas, typical in nebulously forced summer-like environments. With precipitable water near one inch, locally heavy rainfall is likely. Pops generally favor the northern zones through tonight, as most models are suggestive of some flavor of MCS impacting at least the NE zones tonight. 12z GFS shows this scenario nicely, with a thunderstorm complex affecting the Hays vicinity after 7 pm. Outside of convection, winds will trend east/NE behind a combined cold front and outflow boundary. Lows tonight will be held within a few degrees of 60 given a moist boundary layer and thick cloud cover. Lower stratus clouds are expected to develop in the moist upslope post-frontal airmass by sunrise Wednesday. Noticeably cooler/milder on Wednesday, as 850 mb temperatures drop back to the mid teens C. Many locations expected to hold in the upper 70s. Boundary layer remains plentiful Wednesday, but instability will be much weaker in the expected post-frontal airmass. Therefore, Wednesday afternoon will be dry for most locales. Only a slight chance mention was maintained for the western zones late Wednesday, to account for any activity directed into far western Kansas by the NW flow aloft. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Thursday through Sunday...Heating up and drying out will be the general theme through the weekend. Ridge axis remains across the Four Corners on Thursday, keeping modest NW flow locked in over Kansas. As such, will continue to carry chance pops for showers and thunderstorms rolling off the higher terrain Thursday evening/night. 12z ECMWF continues to hint at nocturnal thunderstorm potential in SW KS through sunrise Friday. Temperatures Thursday begin the warming trend, into the 80s. Friday...Dry and warmer. Ridge axis begins phasing east, near the Colorado/Kansas border by 7 pm. Rain chances dwindle away, with subsidence taking over. Grids are dry (pops < 15%). The heating trend continues, with upper 80s east to lower 90s west. Saturday and Sunday...Hot. As flat ridge axis spreads into the central plains, intensely hot plume at 850 mb spreads into SW KS under weak SW flow aloft. 12z ECMWF warms 850 mb temperatures well above 30C across the western CWA. Grids have the first 100 degrees ratings of the season for various western/SW locales Saturday afternoon. Just about as hot on Sunday, with little temperature change noted at 850 mb. Kansas will be sandwiched between a 590 dm upper ridge near Tennessee, and a strong trough in Alberta. With the SW flow aloft, the dryline will establish. Capping will be strong, but so will heating and instability, and there may be a late day storm or two such as ECMWF suggests. Cold front is expected at some point early next week, offering a chance at a thunderstorm and cooler temperatures by Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 650 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Scattered thunderstorms moving south through the area will impact the central and southwest Kansas terminals early in the period. Look for the storms to be exiting the area before 06z. Look for IFR stratus to develop mainly after 06z. Some LIFR ceilings could develop by sunrise Wednesday. The low ceilings are expected to lift into the MVFR/VFR category by late Wednesday morning or by early afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 61 79 58 83 / 40 30 10 10 GCK 60 79 58 86 / 40 20 10 10 EHA 58 82 55 88 / 40 30 30 10 LBL 60 78 57 87 / 30 30 10 10 HYS 60 78 58 83 / 60 30 10 10 P28 61 79 58 82 / 20 20 0 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Gerard
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
317 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure ridge over New Mexico will persist through Thursday. At the surface, east winds will continue to keep moisture in across the Borderland. Expect scattered thunderstorms through Thursday. Main threat will be heavy rainfall and local flooding, but moderate size hail and strong wind gusts are also possible. By Friday into the weekend, drier west flow aloft moves in and should eliminate any risk of thunderstorms. Temperatures will cool slightly after a hot Tuesday. Highs will run near normal through Thursday with cloud cover, and then warm back up for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Active day today as abundant moisture and buoyant airmass are leading to moderate/strong thunderstorms, over the mountains now, but should be over most places by early evening. PWs of around 1.0 inches and MUCPAPES of 500-1500 are initiating convection. Shear environment is not real strong, although Otero shows the best shear for a few severe storms. HRRR showing strong outflow from Gila storms dropping down to Las Cruces/El Paso metro areas by around 23Z-01Z, so thunderstorm development likely over the lowlands by early this evening. Little change for Wed/Thur as good instability persists along with above average moisture. Upper high also remains over New Mexico, resulting in light flow/weak shear environment. Still expect flooding to be main hazard Wed/Thur but can`t rule out a severe storm or two. Temperatures should moderate back to near normal with clouds/moisture. Upper ridge moves east of the area Friday, with drier west flow aloft moving in. Moisture finally gets scoured out from west to east. Could still see a stray afternoon thunderstorm in the Sacs on Friday, otherwise the weekend should remain free of storms/rain. Temperatures will warm back up above normal. && .AVIATION...Valid 07/00Z-08/00Z... Air mass remains fairly moist and unstable and will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Some could approach strong to maybe severe limits. In general: sct-bkn 060-090 sct-bkn 100-140 and sct- bkn 200-25. Winds gnly SE 7-12kts gust 20 kts (nw-ne 00z-10z). Nr tstms BKN-OVC040-0070 BKN-OVC100 AND BKN-0VC 200-250 VSBY 1-3 MI TSRAGS with sfc winds vrbl 35g45 KTS. Tstsm most likely 00z-06z and again aft 18z (mainly e of Rio Grande) Wednesday && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure aloft will continue to provide above normal temperatures today into midweek. With a continued influx of fairly moist low level flow, a fairly unstable airmass, and occasional disturbances aloft, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain areas this afternoon with some moving into the lowlands towards the evening. An additional push of moisture from the east southeast tonight will bring even more widespread thunderstorm activity Wednesday and Thursday, with some highly localized heavy rainfall and flooding possible. For the weekend, a large upper level trough over the entire western United sTates will shove our moisture east out of the area giving us windy, dry and hot weather leading to elevated fire danger. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 71 95 70 94 / 30 10 40 10 Sierra Blanca 64 91 65 91 / 50 20 40 20 Las Cruces 66 94 65 93 / 30 10 40 20 Alamogordo 64 93 64 92 / 30 20 40 20 Cloudcroft 45 70 47 68 / 50 60 50 40 Truth or Consequences 66 93 66 93 / 20 20 30 30 Silver City 62 92 59 87 / 10 20 30 40 Deming 67 96 65 94 / 10 10 30 20 Lordsburg 65 95 63 94 / 10 10 20 20 West El Paso Metro 71 95 69 93 / 30 10 40 20 Dell City 65 94 65 93 / 40 30 40 10 Fort Hancock 70 95 70 94 / 40 20 40 20 Loma Linda 63 92 65 90 / 40 20 40 10 Fabens 72 95 71 94 / 40 10 30 10 Santa Teresa 69 94 67 93 / 30 10 40 20 White Sands HQ 67 93 67 91 / 40 20 40 20 Jornada Range 65 94 66 90 / 30 10 40 20 Hatch 64 95 64 95 / 30 20 30 20 Columbus 69 97 66 96 / 10 10 30 20 Orogrande 68 94 67 91 / 40 10 40 10 Mayhill 50 77 51 77 / 50 70 60 60 Mescalero 51 80 53 78 / 50 50 50 30 Timberon 50 78 51 77 / 50 50 50 40 Winston 54 88 54 84 / 20 30 30 60 Hillsboro 59 92 60 87 / 20 40 40 50 Spaceport 62 92 63 93 / 30 10 30 20 Lake Roberts 52 90 51 86 / 20 30 30 50 Hurley 59 92 58 88 / 10 20 30 30 Cliff 59 94 58 92 / 20 20 20 40 Mule Creek 61 94 59 92 / 10 10 20 30 Faywood 61 93 61 89 / 10 30 30 40 Animas 68 97 63 94 / 10 10 20 20 Hachita 65 97 62 95 / 10 10 20 20 Antelope Wells 65 96 63 92 / 10 10 30 20 Cloverdale 63 95 60 91 / 10 10 20 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ Hefner/Novlan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1032 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front dipping south across the Carolinas will stall offshore tonight. Low pressure will develop along this front leading to widespread rain and cool temperatures Wednesday. Clearing skies should develop Thursday as high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures should rise this weekend as the high moves offshore, with thunderstorms returning to the forecast Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /tonight THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 945 PM Tuesday...PCPN is now congregated along the coastal Carolinas with virga inland. Have re-adjusted POPs, lower for NW ILM CWA to high chance or likely at the immediate coast and categorical just off the coast and offshore. Seems like the latest HRRR, RAP and to a degree, the HiResW, are now pretty close to one another in terms of pcpn occurrence for the remainder of this evening and overnight. Have also cut down overnight pcpn amounts for the remainder of this evening and overnight. Previous............................................. As of 300 PM Tuesday...Decelerating frontal boundary now encroaching on Myrtle Beach, also outlined well offshore by shallow convection. The boundary has really underperformed today in being a precipitation maker and will likely do so for the remainder of the evening. Overnight this should change as the GOMEX upper low opens up and lifts northeastward along the length of the stalled front. A considerable gradient in POPS may develop, favoring coastal locales. What seems more likely however is that measurable rainfall grows likely everywhere and that QPF is what in fact develops a more substantial gradient. The current forecast is a blend of the operational GFS and WRF. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Mid-level closed low will hover over WV and PA Wednesday night and Thursday, then open up and begin to lift northeast Thursday night. The frontal boundary will remain quasi- stationary offshore, with a series of weak circulations riding along it off the Carolina coast. Deepest moisture and best chances for rain will remain along and just offshore Wednesday night, then shift further northeast on Thursday. Highs and lows through the period will remain 7-10 degrees below seasonable norms for early June. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...Upper level low pressure over coastal New England Friday morning should kick out to the northeast during the day, allowing dry mid and upper level winds streaming off the western U.S. ridge to cover most of the nation. This ridge should make its way to the Carolinas by Sunday night. A shortwave disturbance that yesterday`s models were concerned would cut off near the Carolinas early next week is now shown to take a path a little farther north across the Mid-Atlantic states, never phasing with an upper disturbance near the west Gulf coast. This means a less complicated upper level pattern as the ridge pushes offshore Monday. Deep southerly flow developing Monday and especially Tuesday should lead to increasing chances of showers and t-storms as our flow originates across the Caribbean Sea. Temperatures Friday should be rather mild for this time of year with highs only 80-85 degrees, coolest along the beaches. Temperatures should steadily climb over the weekend as the surface high pushes offshore. Rising dewpoints will lead to more afternoon cumulus Saturday and Sunday, but the upper ridge will probably keep a lid on convection until it moves offshore Monday. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 00Z...Somewhat stalled cold front oriented just off and parallel to the NC coast then turning westward and inland in the vicinity of the Winyah Bay, SC. Activity north of the front will generally be patchy light rain with embedded heavier showers closer to the front. This scenario will play out for the evening and overnight period with lowering cloud heights to IFR and possibly LIFR toward daybreak Wed. GFS is the odd model out and is more optimistic with hier POPs and rainfall amounts respectively. Have leaned toward the other end of this spectrum, whereby I`ve kept the sfc low along the cold front further south and east of the Carolinas. This will result in lower pcpn amounts as well as a lower time line for sub-IFR conditions. May see some improving conditions early Wed evening to possibly MVFR all terminals. Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions likely into Thu morning. Showers and thunderstorms Wed with low stratus redeveloping Wed night into Thu morning. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 945 PM Tuesday...Still anticipating the winds to increase once areas of low pressure develop along the stalled front. They will eventually consolidate to 1 low offshore from Cape Fear by late Wed before further intensifying as it moves up the Eastern Seaboard during the end of this week. Have slightly adjusted the NE winds hier across all waters by Wed daybreak and there-after thru daybreak Thu. Significant seas were adjusted slightly hier, by 1 foot, due to the increasing short period wind driven waves. Previous................................................. As of 300 PM Tuesday...Frontal boundary making its way across the waters and decelerating. It will spend most of the overnight hours stalled just outside of the forecast zones keeping flow quite light and somewhat variable in direction. A flat wave of low pressure will run up the boundary tomorrow in response to the robust GOMEX low lifting out to the NE. The resulting pinched gradient will require a Small Craft Advisory by about midday. Will raise the flag with this issuance. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Northeast flow will persist Wednesday night as surface high pressure wedges across the Carolinas, and a frontal boundary lays offshore. As low pressure tracks northeast along the front Wednesday night and Thursday, gradient winds are expected to yield Small Craft Advisory conditions, with potential for gusts to 30 knots on Thursday. Rain and showers are expected to be numerous Wednesday night, then taper off Thursday afternoon/early evening. The gradient will weaken Thursday night as high pressure builds across the waters from the west. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...Surface high pressure centered across the area Friday morning will move offshore by Friday evening. Residual backswell from the Wednesday offshore storm could kick seas up to as large as 4 feet Friday morning. What`s left of today`s cold front should lift back to the north and across the area Saturday, with light mainly southerly winds expected through the weekend. Light winds and no significant storminess in the western Atlantic should yield gentle seas of 2 feet of less. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB SHORT TERM...CRM LONG TERM...TRA AVIATION...MBB MARINE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1008 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 .UPDATE... The Aviation Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 217 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 High pressure will keep dry conditions across the area until Friday, when a weak front could bring some rain to parts of the area. High pressure will return for the weekend into early next week. Cool temperatures midweek will give way to hot conditions for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM.../Rest of Tonight/ Issued at 940 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Still few to scattered clouds over the northeastern counties due to the influence of an upper spoke of energy rounding the back side of the eastern upper low, but no precipitation associated with these at this time and none expected to develop with moisture lacking as evidenced by dew points in the 40s to low 50s across the area and northeasterly flow. Low temperatures generally in the middle 50s still look like a good bet and no changes made there. Only appreciable change was to lower dew points for much of the night based on currently running several degrees too moist and output from HRRR and RAP showing this continuing until late during the overnight. As far as the sensible forecast is concerned though no changes from this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM.../Wednesday through Friday/ Issued at 217 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Models are close enough that the model blend initialization was accepted for most items. The upper low will continue to spin out to our east Wednesday and Thursday. The low will occasionally send some spokes of energy around it, and these will brush the eastern sections of the area. The models that do bring some rain into eastern sections look to be overdoing moisture. Feel that moisture will not be adequate enough to mention PoPs Wednesday or Thursday, but again cannot rule out an isolated shower during those afternoons. On Friday, a front will try to move into the area from the north on northwest flow aloft. Moisture isn`t great, but there will be enough to go along with some forcing for some low PoPs in the north. For temperatures, with increasing clouds from the upper low and cold air moving in aloft, the eastern forecast area will be stuck in the 60s for highs Wednesday. The remainder of the area will see low 70s. Look for gradually moderating temperatures Thursday and Friday as the core of the colder air moves out of the area. && .LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Models and ensembles are not looking nearly as wet for Friday night as they once were. They only now hint at perhaps low coverage over some of our far northern counties as a weak impulse moves through in northwest flow aloft. Instability is marginal but enough to mention thunder. After that, ridging will build in aloft for the weekend with prolonged southwest low level flow on the back side of a stagnant southeastern surface high. Finally, could see some convection on Tuesday as a broad upper trough moves in from the southern Plains. Plenty of instability for thunder. With southwesterly low level flow and plenty of sunshine, lower 90s will be possible by Sunday at some locales per the blend. Otherwise, highs in the 80s and lows mostly in the 60s are likely. && .AVIATION /Discussion for 070000z TAF issuance/... Issued at 1008 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Updated current conditions only. Previous discussion follows... VFR through the period. Northeasterly winds of 8-12 kts (with a few gusts to 20 possible in the first hour) at issuance time will drop in speed to 5-10 kts through the overnight and then pick up again to around 8-12 kts through the day Wednesday. Few to scattered cu over the eastern sites will dissipate in the next hour or so leaving only cirrus around and thus did not include the cu in the current taf line. Could see more VFR cu around daybreak and hanging around through much of the day tomorrow at KIND and KBMG, but KLAF and KHUF may be west enough to avoid these. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...CP SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....MK AVIATION...CP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
919 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 .UPDATE... Updated for evening discussion. && .DISCUSSION... As of 2z, latest satellite imagery and RAP analysis show the upper level low that has been plaguing our area the last few days finally moving off to our southeast with a surface cold front analyzed over far northern Mississippi. Regional radars show two distinct areas of showers and storms in the deformation region of the aforementioned low: 1) over the Delta and southeast Arkansas where better CAPE around 2000 J/kg has allowed for more robust updrafts with a few reports of gusty winds and small hail, and 2) a dissipating band of showers from Meridian southwest to just east of Brookhaven. These showers have been efficient rainfall producers in a very moist environment characteristic of 2 inch PWATs per latest SPC mesoanalysis and observed 00z soundings from JAN and LIX. For the remainder of the evening, the two areas of storms and showers are progged to continue weakening and dissipate/move out of the area as the low and upper level support pulls away. The cold front to our north will continue to drop south and will be just north of the I-20 corridor by daybreak. This will allow overnight temperatures to drop down into the mid to upper 60s with the coolest temps in the north closer to the cold front. /TW/ Prior discussion below: Tonight through Wednesday: The upper-level low pressure system which has brought several days of rainfall to our region is now moving southeast of our forecast area. Rain chances will be on the decline through the rest of this evening and tonight under drier northeast flow aloft. PWAT values are still near 2.0 inches per RAP analysis this afternoon, so ongoing showers and storms will still be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. A Limited Threat for flash flooding will therefore continue into the early evening hours before precip chances decrease. Quiet weather is expected across the forecast area by tomorrow, with sunny skies and breezy winds around 10 to 20 mph and a few higher gusts. Wednesday night through Monday: At the beginning of the period, the mid level weather pattern will be dominated by a cold core low over the Ohio valley with ridging over the eastern Rockies and High Plains. In the lower levels, light northerly winds and dewpoints in the 50s will promote another cool night over the forecast area. The atypical airmass will produce another relatively cool day Thursday. After morning lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s, highs will only manage to rise to 80 to 85. Friday morning also looks cool, but rising heights will begin bringing max temps closer to normal. Light low level southerly flow will recommence Saturday as heights continue to rise aloft. With the lag in low level moisture, maximums look to rise into the lower 90s. Low level dewpoints rising back into the 60s and lower 70s will promote more cloud cover and prevent maximums from rising quite as high as Saturday, but near 90 may still be attainable. The better dewpoints may also lead to some airmass convection, but mainly over southern sections as capping inversion over northern sections limits this potential. By Monday into Tuesday, a weakness looks to develop in the mid level ridge allowing the capping inversion to break down. Increasing instability with afternoon heating each afternoon will be sufficient for airmass convection to develop, more typical for this time of year./26/ && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF discussion: SHRA activity wl continue to come in vcty of TAF sites through 02Z but wl end earlier this evening. VFR conds were observed at all TAF sites at 2330Z and away from SHRA, VFR conds will prevail through Wednesday. Skies wl clr Wednesday but gusty north winds around 20kts wl develop by 16Z and cont Wednesday aftn. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 67 83 58 82 / 27 1 1 1 Meridian 67 84 57 82 / 46 3 1 1 Vicksburg 67 83 58 82 / 21 1 1 1 Hattiesburg 69 86 60 86 / 55 4 1 1 Natchez 68 82 60 81 / 33 2 1 1 Greenville 65 82 59 81 / 21 1 1 1 Greenwood 65 82 57 80 / 15 1 1 1 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ TW/NF/22/26
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
722 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 718 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Updated forecast to reflect current trends on radar. HRR and other models have backed off significantly on precipitation. Also added some early morning patchy fog over southwest Nebraska with winds becoming easterly and light through the early morning hours. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 331 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 The forecast follows a blend of the previous forecast and the HRRR/RAP models this evening. A cold front appears to be pressing south and this is setting up the better focus across KS and Scntl Neb. Pops are capped at 40 percent for this forecast and that could be generous given the HRRR is very spotty with the rainfall. WPC suggested some locally heavy rainfall potential tonight with precipitable water increasing to 1.33 inches or higher. A modest rain center formed last night over Wheeler county with radar estimating around 3 inches. The 18z RAP model shows this occurring over KS tonight. The isolated rain chance Wednesday revolves around residual moisture and weak forcing. The temperature forecast is a blend of guidance plus bias correction for lows mostly in the 50s and highs around 80 Wednesday. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 331 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 High pressure ridging will remain nearly stationary from the desert southwest into the Rockies though the end of the week. This generates weak northwest flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the ridge across our area. Surface flow will mostly be south to southeast which should maintain decent low level moisture through the end of the week. Afternoon heating should lead to isolated showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon as there will be little capping aloft. By Friday a large upper level low pressure system should be digging into the Pacific northwest. This will nudge the upper level ridging east over our area. With the ridge expect 700mb temperatures to rise into the mid and possibly upper teens Celsius, which will create a strong capping inversion aloft. So the weekend looks mainly dry despite increasing humidity with the flow off a wide open Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will be near average Thursday. Then by weeks end a big warm up and heat wave for the weekend as the ridging aloft spreads across the central plains. Highs in the mid 90s, possibly warmer, for Saturday and lower to mid 90s Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 608 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Isolated thunderstorms and scattered rainshowers from KONL to KORD to KMCK will dissipate through the evening. As surface high pressure moves into western Nebraska tonight winds will shift to the northeast and east and create upslope flow into the higher elevations of western Nebraska with some MVFR ceilings developing across southwest Nebraska through late evening and then becoming IFR through the early morning on Wednesday...with areas of fog. This area is from KIML to KLBF to KOGA. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...power SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...Taylor AVIATION...Power
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
944 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 .UPDATE... ...Locally Heavy Rain through Mid Week with a Marginal Risk for Severe Storms through Wednesday... Tonight...Band of convection recently pushed offshore Martin county but areas of rain lingered northward to near Melbourne. The 00z sounding at Tampa showed some drier air had worked into the low/mid levels. Water vapor imagery showed this drier air with a dry slot wrapping around mid/upper level low that was along the north Gulf coast. Some of this drier air likely worked across our northern areas as mid level clouds cleared out quickly there late in the day. The latest HRRR model is showing convection remaining active over south Florida overnight and lingers an area of moderate rain over the south half of our area. This looks reasonable and will carry 50- 60 POPs there. The models don`t paint much of a chance for showers or storms overnight in the north, but leave low chances. Wed-Wed Night (Previous Discussion)...Weakening upper troughing across the southeast U.S. and Gulf Coast States will slowly move eastward and lie across the central FL peninsula by sunrise Thu morning. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary across the FL Panhandle and north Gulf will make very slow progress into north- central FL by the same time early Thu morning. Deep southwesterly flow will continue across the FL peninsula with breezy southwesterly surface winds as the pressure gradient remains fairly tight, though lighter winds at times possible as convection distorts the wind field. These SWRLY winds are forecast to remain elevated a bit again during the evening/overnight periods. Deep moisture remains present with PWATs in excess of 2 inches during the day falling back a bit Wed night to 1.75-2.00 inches. Will continue the high PoPs with 80pct areawide. SPC continues to keep us in a marginal svr threat for Wed, but this will remain dependent on any surface heating as temperatures aloft remain relatively warm. Locally heavy rainfall with nuisance minor flooding possible. Many stronger cells will be efficient precipitation producers over a short time and any repeated training echoes could aid in rainfall amounts piling up. Storm steering will be from southwest twd northeast at 30 to 40 mph. && .AVIATION...An area of MVFR-IFR stratus was developing behind precip shield, mainly northward from KMLB-KMCO-KTIX. Guidance did not hint at this and guidance is showing low level winds increasing, so we`re not planning on the IFR ceilings to stick around all night. Southern terminals will have occasional light-moderate rainfall well into the overnight with some periods of MVFR conditions. On Wed, expect showers/storms to form in the afternoon. Strong atmospheric wind fields and possibly some mid level drier air could lead to storms with strong wind gusts. && .MARINE... Tonight-Wed Night...South/southwest gradient winds have been disrupted by convection, but guidance is showing winds 20-25 knots offshore tonight through Wed. Have made some adjustments to the winds based on the latest guidance. The wave models only bring seas to 5 feet for most of this period, so have gone with a Small Craft Advisory for Winds in the offshore waters. The nearshore zones will have exercise caution statements. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory for Winds until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm- Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm. && $$ FORECASTS...Lascody IMPACT WX...Sharp
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
855 PM PDT Tue Jun 6 2017 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and seasonable weather continues through Wednesday with the marine layer around 1500 feet along the coast. By Thursday morning a late season cold front brings light rain into the North Bay. The South Bay and Monterey Bay region will likely remain dry and may actually warm in the warm and moist sector of the storm on Thursday. Cool northwest flow then develops on Friday as the upper trough moves inland. High pressure begins to rebuild over the weekend with a return to dry weather and a gradual warming trend. && .DISCUSSION...As of 8:55 PM PDT Tuesday...Slightly cooler temperatures were felt across the region today as the increase in the westerly gradient coupled with a 1200 foot marine layer allowed cooler marine air to infiltrate farther inland and moderate temperatures a bit. Afternoon highs reached into the mid 50s to lower 60s along the coast, 60s around the Bay, 70s and 80s inland with a few 90s in the warmest interior valleys. Wednesday will be similar to today with slight cooling expected over the interior while coastal location see little to no change. High clouds will being increasing through the day Wednesday ahead of an approaching frontal system that is forecast to impact the region Thursday. The best chance of precipitation is expected across the North Bay with only a slight chance of showers anticipated south of the Golden Gate. From previous discussion...The front will begin to approach the coast after sunset Wednesday with possible rain arriving to the Sonoma County coast around midnight on Thursday. Now, there are several differences in timing with the models. The ECMWF brings the precipitation to onshore earlier than both the 12km NAM and GFS. More or less split the difference and closely followed the NAM for bringing the rain inland to North Bay early Thursday and eventually the Bay Area by late morning or early afternoon. Confidence remains medium for the timing. At this point, rain amounts do look to be generally light with the highest totals north of the Golden Gate. Parts of Sonoma County may receive up to 0.75", but should note that our in-house local WRF model does suggest locally higher amounts of an inch or more. Rain amounts south of the Golden Gate will decrease heading south, with some areas such as the Santa Clara Valley likely to be rain shadowed and may receive little or no rain. Monterey County will likely remain dry for most of the day. A few lingering showers or light rain may hang around the Bay Area and Monterey Bay early Friday, but clearing should continue through the day as the precipitation pushes east. High pressure will begin to build over the the region by the weekend with dry conditions expected. && .AVIATION...As of 5:55 PM PDT Tuesday...In many respects the 0Z package is similar to yesterday with clouds forecast to potentially move inland later this evening. Satellite shows more clouds compared to 24 hours and with a stronger west-to-east gradient concern we could see CIGs impacting terminals earlier than last night. For the latest forecast, kept times similar to the previous package which drops them down to MVFR/IFR generally after 09Z. Definitely concerned this could be too late as some guidance does bring it in earlier (maybe 05Z), so will keep a very close eye on the satellite and adjust as needed. Low confidence forecast north of Monterey Bay. Vicinity of KSFO...Difficult forecast as the stronger westerly push at the surface will bring a better chance for CIGs compared to last night. HRRR and local WRF indicates that the clouds will stay just to the north (aiming more at KOAK), so will keep the timing around 10Z. However, worth noting that both the HRRR and WRF actually do not bring any CIGs in overnight, so even a late start could be wrong. Low confidence forecast. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR to IFR CIGs now at KMRY with similar conditions expected at KSNS shortly based on satellite and model trends. Return of VFR around 16Z tomorrow. Moderate confidence. && of 8:55 PM PDT Tuesday...Northwesterly winds will continue to diminish overnight into Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure weakens. Winds will turn southerly by Wednesday night and Thursday morning ahead of a cold frontal system. Rain will accompany the cold frontal passage Thursday especially for our northern waters. There will be a chance of showers going into Thursday night. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tngt...SCA...Mry Bay until 3 AM SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm until 3 AM SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 3 AM SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 3 AM SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm until 3 AM SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: CW/Rowe AVIATION: Bell MARINE: Canepa Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, twitter, and youtube at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
634 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Weak convection continues to percolate in axis of elevated and surface-based thetae from southeast Colorado into south central Nebraska. May see a slight uptic in activity through the rest of the afternoon into the early evening as several weak eddies drop southward along backside of longwave trough. CAM are showing slight differences in eastern progression of convection into the early evening, though experimental HRRR appeared to have the best handle on location and coverage. As such, used it as guide for convection in the very short term. Though afternoon convection mainly has been across south central Nebraska, expect an increase in elevated convection overnight from central South Dakota into north central Nebraska. Shortwave dropping out of Manitoba into northern plains enhances isentropic ascent along 305K. Previous forecast already had this evolution covered and only tweaked timing and location a little bit. Expect any convection that develops to dissipate by mid-morning, as upper level riding builds over the region. Though low level boundary will remain across the area, extent of diabatic/diurnal convection on Wednesday in question, as H7 temperatures of 5C+ advect into southern portions of the forecast area, effectively capping area. Upper ridging remains in place Wednesday night, then begins to break down as slow moving northern Plains shortwave begins to merge/sync with quasi-stationary Ohio Valley upper level H5 low. Cooler H5/H7 temperatures may allow for another round of diurnal convection, but with weak dynamic forcing and weak convergence along boundary, feel only low PoPs warranted. By Friday, area under the influence of northwest flow aloft, and precipitation chances look minimal. As for temperatures, guidance has been on the low side, not handling low level dryness and superadiabtic warming. Decided to continue previous forecast trends of going slightly above guidance while area remains dry. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Upper level ridging builds into the plains by the weekend. Temperatures look very warm on Saturday and Sunday, with H8 temperatures 23-26C advecting into the area with low level flow from a southwesterly direction. Upper ridging and temperatures will inhibit precipitation chances as well. Upper ridge begins to break down early next week, as long wave trough digs over western U.S. Ensembles depicting quite a bit of spread with depth and timing of trough from western U.S. into the plains, so keeping forecast dry until at least Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017 VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites throughout the 24-hr cycle. A few passing showers or isolated thunderstorm is possible in the first couple hours at KOFK but otherwise sites should remain dry. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fortin LONG TERM...Fortin AVIATION...Kern