Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/07/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1001 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 954 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2017
Plains showers winding down as expected. HRRR continues to insist
we`ll have a batch of thunderstorms 4-8 hours out--a moving target
it has had all afternoon and evening. I see no reason for this.
The upstream convection in the Cheyenne-Laramie area has also
faded. There is more upstream of that but it does not appear to be
sparked by any organizing feature that would move this way.
Surface wind flow is light and should not produce enough
convergence to break the capping inversion. There could be a
little stratus/fog over the northeast late tonight, but the extent
will be limited if there is any.
Still looks like some warming aloft will limit convection on the
plains tomorrow, though there will be rich low level moisture to
tap if it were to get warm enough.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2017
Storms developed as expected in the mountains and foothills, but
so far airmass has remained capped on the plains per latest AMDAR
soundings and only shallow cumulus. Only a degree or two of
further warming would break the cap, but thicker cloud deck
spreading out from mountain convection is holding that at bay.
We should still see some development on the plains through the
early evening hours as long as there`s sufficient convective
boundary collisions. We will keep a chance of thunderstorms down
onto the I-25 Corridor and adjacent plains, but lower those
chances per latest trends and uncertainty whether or not cap
breaks. Still isolated severe threat but CAPES a little lower than
earlier progged, now in the 800-1500 J/kg range. Heavy rain would
be the main threat with precipitable water values 0.75 to 1.0
inch. Models have overdone these a bit as evidenced by the latest
integrated precipitable water from GPS-MET. Convective activity
will slowly diminish later this evening with partial clearing
late.
On Wednesday, morning sunshine and plenty of moisture should allow
for more convective development during the afternoon. In fact,
looks like nearly a repeat of today with 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE,
similar precipitable water values, and weak shear with isolated
severe storm threat. Numerous showers/storms expected over the
mountains and foothills, with a chance down onto the plains.
Temperatures just a couple degrees warmer.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2017
There will be a significant upper level ridge of high pressure
over Colorado Wednesday night through Friday night. The upper
ridge axis will move from the western border at 00Z late
Wednesday to over the eastern border by 06Z Friday night. The
flow aloft will be weak all five periods. The synoptic scale
energy will be benign through the period. The low level wind progs
show normal diurnal wind patterns, with drainage at night, and
weak upslope in the days. For moisture, there is quite a bit
Wednesday evening, less Thursday, and very little on Friday.
Precipitable water values are in the 0.75 to 1.25 inch range
Wednesday evening. There are in the 0.50 to 1.00 inch range late
day Thursday. Models have it drying out quite a bit Friday with
values in the 0.25 to 0.50 inch range. Surface dew points are in
the 50s F Wednesday night. They are in the mid 40s foothills and
western plains to the mid 50s F eastern plains late day Thursday.
Models show pretty high CAPE values Wednesday evening, the
highest over the foothills. There are high CAPE values late day
Thursday, the highest over the eastern half of the plains. There
is almost no CAPE progged on Friday. The best stability profile
for convection would be Wednesday evening. There is a weak mid
level cap in place for some of the CWA late day Thursday. The cap
is strong late day Friday. The QPF fields have measurable
rainfall over most of the CWA, with the highest amounts over the
mountains and foothills. There is less coverage late day Thursday
and it is mainly over the southwestern CWA. There is a tiny bit of
measurable rainfall over the northeast corner late day Friday on
only one of the models. For pops, will go with 20-40%s Wednesday
evening. Will go with 0-20%s late day Thursday. No pops anywhere
on Friday and Friday night. For temperatures, Thursday`s highs are
3-7 C warmer than Wednesday`s. Friday`s highs warm up another 1-4
C from Thursday`s. For the later days, Saturday through Tuesday,
models have a strong upper closed low off the northwestern United
States coast Saturday and Saturday night. The upper trough gets
into the Great basin by Sunday afternoon. The upper trough axis is
over the western Colorado border Monday night. The system moves
across the CWA on Tuesday. So it is all southwesterly flow aloft
for Colorado Saturday through Monday night. A cold front is
progged to move across the CWA Monday night but only on the GFS.
Models don`t seem to have enough moisture and QPF with this
magnitude of a system, but it is still several days away.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 954 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2017
VFR through Wednesday morning. There is a chance of thunderstorms
after 20z, especially over the mountains. Wind gusts to 40 knots
are the main threat, though localized MVFR visibilities are also
possible.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Gimmestad
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Gimmestad
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
949 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving upper low will meander over the region right
through Thursday bringing a couple more days of unseasonably
cool temperatures along with periods of unsettled weather. A
weak cold front will cross the region early this weekend before
an extended period of much warmer and drier conditions develops
for at least the first half of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Diurnal showers are slowly dwindling in number and coverage
late this evening but will take a few more hours to dissipate
altogether. Think by 07z all will be gone...but as upper trof
fills and flattens in response to upstream upper level ridging,
easterly component to the boundary layer flow will allow light
showers to retrograde across eastern and central PA overnight.
Latest HRRR and previous SREF/GLAMP guidance in good agreement
on settling a blanket of low clouds over central PA as flow
turns to the north and then northeast. As a result...keeping
slgt chc pops going from 07z through 12z overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The inverted trough and compact upper trough will sag south
toward the Mid Atlantic Piedmont region Wednesday, leaving a
very chilly and mainly cloudy airmass with a light to moderate
East to NE breeze. Diurnal, isolated-scattered showers will
shift to Central and Southwest part of the CWA with just a few-
svrl hundredths of an inch of rainfall occurring during the
daylight hours Wed. Around 0.10 of an inch is possible across
the Laurel Highlands. Clouds will hang tough across the west and
break up a bit in the east during the afternoon.
The coolest temps appear to be Wednesday into Thursday, when
daytime highs may struggle to climb out of the 50s in some
locations of northern and western PA with the upper low and
coolest 850 mb temps right across that part of the state.
The high temps Wed will be 12-14 deg F below normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Little change is expected for Thursday as the cold upper low
drifts almost right overhead. Look for scattered afternoon
showers, with just a very low prob for TSRA, considering the
cool low cape environment.
Max temps will warm just 1-3F from Wednesday, and highs will
range from the low 60s across the Laurel Highlands to near 60F
in the southeast.
A weak front will drop southeast late Friday or Saturday, with
a chance for a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
Temperatures will slowly edge back closer to normal toward
the end of the upcoming week and this weekend.
Dry and very warm weather expected the latter half of the long
term period as upper ridging is forecast to build quickly
across the Middle Atlantic states early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The radar at 7pm continues very active with with numerous small
fast moving showers and isolated thunderstorms rotating down in
the NW flow around the unseasonably strong upper low.
Conditions are mainly VFR with the showers bringing brief
localized restrictions. The HRRR shows the showers shrinking in
coverage as we lose the heating this evening, however low level
moisture is forecast to become trapped under an inversion
bringing a generalized lowering of ceilings overnight.
MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue through Wednesday morning with
slow improvement during the afternoon.
.OUTLOOK...
Thu-Sat...Mainly VFR with isold-sct showers/tstms.
Sun...No sig Wx.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert/RXR
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/RXR
SHORT TERM...Lambert/RXR
LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner
AVIATION...La Corte
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
650 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017
Instability is increasing across SW KS as of midday, with SPC
mesoanalysis showing ML CAPE near 1000 J/kg and lifted index of
near -4. Strong heating into the upper 80s will remove what is
left of the convective inhibition, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing this afternoon. Initial activity already
developing near Hays. HRRR has been very aggressive with
convective coverage this afternoon for several runs, and earlier
increased pop grids for the northern zones this afternoon. Storms
will propagate generally S/SE once formed, given the NWly flow
aloft. The threat of severe weather is marginal. Deep layer shear
is weak, but easterly upslope surface winds will help encourage
storm relative inflow and some updraft strength. Strong to
marginally severe storms are possible through this evening, with
wind gusts of 50-60 mph the primary threat. Have high confidence
that scattered thunderstorms will exist, but very low confidence
on exact coverage and placement. All models have their own ideas,
typical in nebulously forced summer-like environments. With
precipitable water near one inch, locally heavy rainfall is
likely. Pops generally favor the northern zones through tonight,
as most models are suggestive of some flavor of MCS impacting at
least the NE zones tonight. 12z GFS shows this scenario nicely,
with a thunderstorm complex affecting the Hays vicinity after 7
pm. Outside of convection, winds will trend east/NE behind a
combined cold front and outflow boundary. Lows tonight will be
held within a few degrees of 60 given a moist boundary layer and
thick cloud cover. Lower stratus clouds are expected to develop in
the moist upslope post-frontal airmass by sunrise Wednesday.
Noticeably cooler/milder on Wednesday, as 850 mb temperatures
drop back to the mid teens C. Many locations expected to hold in
the upper 70s. Boundary layer remains plentiful Wednesday, but
instability will be much weaker in the expected post-frontal
airmass. Therefore, Wednesday afternoon will be dry for most
locales. Only a slight chance mention was maintained for the
western zones late Wednesday, to account for any activity directed
into far western Kansas by the NW flow aloft.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017
Thursday through Sunday...Heating up and drying out will be the
general theme through the weekend.
Ridge axis remains across the Four Corners on Thursday, keeping
modest NW flow locked in over Kansas. As such, will continue to
carry chance pops for showers and thunderstorms rolling off the
higher terrain Thursday evening/night. 12z ECMWF continues to
hint at nocturnal thunderstorm potential in SW KS through sunrise
Friday. Temperatures Thursday begin the warming trend, into the
80s.
Friday...Dry and warmer. Ridge axis begins phasing east, near the
Colorado/Kansas border by 7 pm. Rain chances dwindle away, with
subsidence taking over. Grids are dry (pops < 15%). The heating
trend continues, with upper 80s east to lower 90s west.
Saturday and Sunday...Hot. As flat ridge axis spreads into the
central plains, intensely hot plume at 850 mb spreads into SW KS
under weak SW flow aloft. 12z ECMWF warms 850 mb temperatures well
above 30C across the western CWA. Grids have the first 100 degrees
ratings of the season for various western/SW locales Saturday
afternoon. Just about as hot on Sunday, with little temperature
change noted at 850 mb. Kansas will be sandwiched between a 590 dm
upper ridge near Tennessee, and a strong trough in Alberta. With
the SW flow aloft, the dryline will establish. Capping will be
strong, but so will heating and instability, and there may be a
late day storm or two such as ECMWF suggests.
Cold front is expected at some point early next week, offering a
chance at a thunderstorm and cooler temperatures by Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017
Scattered thunderstorms moving south through the area will impact
the central and southwest Kansas terminals early in the period.
Look for the storms to be exiting the area before 06z. Look for IFR
stratus to develop mainly after 06z. Some LIFR ceilings could
develop by sunrise Wednesday. The low ceilings are expected to
lift into the MVFR/VFR category by late Wednesday morning or by
early afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 79 58 83 / 40 30 10 10
GCK 60 79 58 86 / 40 20 10 10
EHA 58 82 55 88 / 40 30 30 10
LBL 60 78 57 87 / 30 30 10 10
HYS 60 78 58 83 / 60 30 10 10
P28 61 79 58 82 / 20 20 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Gerard
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
317 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure ridge over New Mexico will persist through
Thursday. At the surface, east winds will continue to keep
moisture in across the Borderland. Expect scattered thunderstorms
through Thursday. Main threat will be heavy rainfall and local
flooding, but moderate size hail and strong wind gusts are also
possible. By Friday into the weekend, drier west flow aloft moves
in and should eliminate any risk of thunderstorms. Temperatures
will cool slightly after a hot Tuesday. Highs will run near normal
through Thursday with cloud cover, and then warm back up for the
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Active day today as abundant moisture and buoyant airmass are
leading to moderate/strong thunderstorms, over the mountains now,
but should be over most places by early evening. PWs of around 1.0
inches and MUCPAPES of 500-1500 are initiating convection. Shear
environment is not real strong, although Otero shows the best
shear for a few severe storms. HRRR showing strong outflow from
Gila storms dropping down to Las Cruces/El Paso metro areas by
around 23Z-01Z, so thunderstorm development likely over the
lowlands by early this evening. Little change for Wed/Thur as good
instability persists along with above average moisture. Upper high
also remains over New Mexico, resulting in light flow/weak shear
environment. Still expect flooding to be main hazard Wed/Thur but
can`t rule out a severe storm or two. Temperatures should moderate
back to near normal with clouds/moisture.
Upper ridge moves east of the area Friday, with drier west flow
aloft moving in. Moisture finally gets scoured out from west to
east. Could still see a stray afternoon thunderstorm in the Sacs
on Friday, otherwise the weekend should remain free of
storms/rain. Temperatures will warm back up above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid 07/00Z-08/00Z...
Air mass remains fairly moist and unstable and will support isolated
to scattered thunderstorms. Some could approach strong to maybe
severe limits. In general: sct-bkn 060-090 sct-bkn 100-140 and sct-
bkn 200-25. Winds gnly SE 7-12kts gust 20 kts (nw-ne 00z-10z). Nr
tstms BKN-OVC040-0070 BKN-OVC100 AND BKN-0VC 200-250 VSBY 1-3 MI
TSRAGS with sfc winds vrbl 35g45 KTS. Tstsm most likely 00z-06z and
again aft 18z (mainly e of Rio Grande) Wednesday
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure aloft will continue to provide above normal
temperatures today into midweek. With a continued influx of fairly
moist low level flow, a fairly unstable airmass, and occasional
disturbances aloft, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop
in the higher terrain areas this afternoon with some moving into the
lowlands towards the evening. An additional push of moisture from
the east southeast tonight will bring even more widespread
thunderstorm activity Wednesday and Thursday, with some highly
localized heavy rainfall and flooding possible. For the weekend, a
large upper level trough over the entire western United sTates will
shove our moisture east out of the area giving us windy, dry and hot
weather leading to elevated fire danger.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 71 95 70 94 / 30 10 40 10
Sierra Blanca 64 91 65 91 / 50 20 40 20
Las Cruces 66 94 65 93 / 30 10 40 20
Alamogordo 64 93 64 92 / 30 20 40 20
Cloudcroft 45 70 47 68 / 50 60 50 40
Truth or Consequences 66 93 66 93 / 20 20 30 30
Silver City 62 92 59 87 / 10 20 30 40
Deming 67 96 65 94 / 10 10 30 20
Lordsburg 65 95 63 94 / 10 10 20 20
West El Paso Metro 71 95 69 93 / 30 10 40 20
Dell City 65 94 65 93 / 40 30 40 10
Fort Hancock 70 95 70 94 / 40 20 40 20
Loma Linda 63 92 65 90 / 40 20 40 10
Fabens 72 95 71 94 / 40 10 30 10
Santa Teresa 69 94 67 93 / 30 10 40 20
White Sands HQ 67 93 67 91 / 40 20 40 20
Jornada Range 65 94 66 90 / 30 10 40 20
Hatch 64 95 64 95 / 30 20 30 20
Columbus 69 97 66 96 / 10 10 30 20
Orogrande 68 94 67 91 / 40 10 40 10
Mayhill 50 77 51 77 / 50 70 60 60
Mescalero 51 80 53 78 / 50 50 50 30
Timberon 50 78 51 77 / 50 50 50 40
Winston 54 88 54 84 / 20 30 30 60
Hillsboro 59 92 60 87 / 20 40 40 50
Spaceport 62 92 63 93 / 30 10 30 20
Lake Roberts 52 90 51 86 / 20 30 30 50
Hurley 59 92 58 88 / 10 20 30 30
Cliff 59 94 58 92 / 20 20 20 40
Mule Creek 61 94 59 92 / 10 10 20 30
Faywood 61 93 61 89 / 10 30 30 40
Animas 68 97 63 94 / 10 10 20 20
Hachita 65 97 62 95 / 10 10 20 20
Antelope Wells 65 96 63 92 / 10 10 30 20
Cloverdale 63 95 60 91 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
Hefner/Novlan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1032 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front dipping south across the Carolinas will stall
offshore tonight. Low pressure will develop along this front
leading to widespread rain and cool temperatures Wednesday.
Clearing skies should develop Thursday as high pressure
builds in from the west. Temperatures should rise this weekend
as the high moves offshore, with thunderstorms returning to the
forecast Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /tonight THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 945 PM Tuesday...PCPN is now congregated along the coastal
Carolinas with virga inland. Have re-adjusted POPs, lower for NW
ILM CWA to high chance or likely at the immediate coast and
categorical just off the coast and offshore. Seems like the
latest HRRR, RAP and to a degree, the HiResW, are now pretty
close to one another in terms of pcpn occurrence for the
remainder of this evening and overnight. Have also cut down
overnight pcpn amounts for the remainder of this evening and
overnight.
Previous.............................................
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Decelerating frontal boundary now
encroaching on Myrtle Beach, also outlined well offshore by
shallow convection. The boundary has really underperformed
today in being a precipitation maker and will likely do so for
the remainder of the evening. Overnight this should change as
the GOMEX upper low opens up and lifts northeastward along the
length of the stalled front. A considerable gradient in POPS
may develop, favoring coastal locales. What seems more likely
however is that measurable rainfall grows likely everywhere and
that QPF is what in fact develops a more substantial gradient.
The current forecast is a blend of the operational GFS and WRF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Mid-level closed low will hover over WV
and PA Wednesday night and Thursday, then open up and begin to
lift northeast Thursday night. The frontal boundary will remain
quasi- stationary offshore, with a series of weak circulations
riding along it off the Carolina coast. Deepest moisture and
best chances for rain will remain along and just offshore
Wednesday night, then shift further northeast on Thursday. Highs
and lows through the period will remain 7-10 degrees below
seasonable norms for early June.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...Upper level low pressure over coastal New
England Friday morning should kick out to the northeast during
the day, allowing dry mid and upper level winds streaming off
the western U.S. ridge to cover most of the nation. This ridge
should make its way to the Carolinas by Sunday night. A
shortwave disturbance that yesterday`s models were concerned
would cut off near the Carolinas early next week is now shown to
take a path a little farther north across the Mid-Atlantic
states, never phasing with an upper disturbance near the
west Gulf coast. This means a less complicated upper level
pattern as the ridge pushes offshore Monday. Deep southerly flow
developing Monday and especially Tuesday should lead to
increasing chances of showers and t-storms as our flow
originates across the Caribbean Sea.
Temperatures Friday should be rather mild for this time of year
with highs only 80-85 degrees, coolest along the beaches.
Temperatures should steadily climb over the weekend as the
surface high pushes offshore. Rising dewpoints will lead to more
afternoon cumulus Saturday and Sunday, but the upper ridge will
probably keep a lid on convection until it moves offshore
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 00Z...Somewhat stalled cold front oriented just off and
parallel to the NC coast then turning westward and inland in the
vicinity of the Winyah Bay, SC. Activity north of the front will
generally be patchy light rain with embedded heavier showers
closer to the front. This scenario will play out for the evening
and overnight period with lowering cloud heights to IFR and
possibly LIFR toward daybreak Wed. GFS is the odd model out and
is more optimistic with hier POPs and rainfall amounts
respectively. Have leaned toward the other end of this spectrum,
whereby I`ve kept the sfc low along the cold front further
south and east of the Carolinas. This will result in lower pcpn
amounts as well as a lower time line for sub-IFR conditions.
May see some improving conditions early Wed evening to possibly
MVFR all terminals.
Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions likely into Thu morning.
Showers and thunderstorms Wed with low stratus redeveloping Wed
night into Thu morning.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 945 PM Tuesday...Still anticipating the winds to increase
once areas of low pressure develop along the stalled front.
They will eventually consolidate to 1 low offshore from Cape
Fear by late Wed before further intensifying as it moves up the
Eastern Seaboard during the end of this week. Have slightly
adjusted the NE winds hier across all waters by Wed daybreak and
there-after thru daybreak Thu. Significant seas were adjusted
slightly hier, by 1 foot, due to the increasing short period
wind driven waves.
Previous.................................................
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Frontal boundary making its way across
the waters and decelerating. It will spend most of the overnight
hours stalled just outside of the forecast zones keeping flow
quite light and somewhat variable in direction. A flat wave of
low pressure will run up the boundary tomorrow in response to
the robust GOMEX low lifting out to the NE. The resulting
pinched gradient will require a Small Craft Advisory by about
midday. Will raise the flag with this issuance.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Northeast flow will persist Wednesday
night as surface high pressure wedges across the Carolinas, and
a frontal boundary lays offshore. As low pressure tracks
northeast along the front Wednesday night and Thursday, gradient
winds are expected to yield Small Craft Advisory conditions,
with potential for gusts to 30 knots on Thursday. Rain and
showers are expected to be numerous Wednesday night, then taper
off Thursday afternoon/early evening. The gradient will weaken
Thursday night as high pressure builds across the waters from
the west.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...Surface high pressure centered across the
area Friday morning will move offshore by Friday evening.
Residual backswell from the Wednesday offshore storm could kick
seas up to as large as 4 feet Friday morning.
What`s left of today`s cold front should lift back to the north
and across the area Saturday, with light mainly southerly winds
expected through the weekend. Light winds and no significant
storminess in the western Atlantic should yield gentle seas of 2
feet of less.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday
for AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB
SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1008 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017
.UPDATE...
The Aviation Section has been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 217 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017
High pressure will keep dry conditions across the area until Friday,
when a weak front could bring some rain to parts of the area. High
pressure will return for the weekend into early next week. Cool
temperatures midweek will give way to hot conditions for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../Rest of Tonight/
Issued at 940 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017
Still few to scattered clouds over the northeastern counties due to
the influence of an upper spoke of energy rounding the back side of
the eastern upper low, but no precipitation associated with these at
this time and none expected to develop with moisture lacking as
evidenced by dew points in the 40s to low 50s across the area and
northeasterly flow. Low temperatures generally in the middle 50s
still look like a good bet and no changes made there. Only
appreciable change was to lower dew points for much of the night
based on currently running several degrees too moist and output from
HRRR and RAP showing this continuing until late during the
overnight. As far as the sensible forecast is concerned though no
changes from this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../Wednesday through Friday/
Issued at 217 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017
Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.
The upper low will continue to spin out to our east Wednesday and
Thursday. The low will occasionally send some spokes of energy around
it, and these will brush the eastern sections of the area. The
models that do bring some rain into eastern sections look to be
overdoing moisture. Feel that moisture will not be adequate enough
to mention PoPs Wednesday or Thursday, but again cannot rule out an
isolated shower during those afternoons.
On Friday, a front will try to move into the area from the north on
northwest flow aloft. Moisture isn`t great, but there will be enough
to go along with some forcing for some low PoPs in the north.
For temperatures, with increasing clouds from the upper low and cold
air moving in aloft, the eastern forecast area will be stuck in the
60s for highs Wednesday. The remainder of the area will see low 70s.
Look for gradually moderating temperatures Thursday and Friday as
the core of the colder air moves out of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017
Models and ensembles are not looking nearly as wet for Friday night
as they once were. They only now hint at perhaps low coverage over
some of our far northern counties as a weak impulse moves through in
northwest flow aloft. Instability is marginal but enough to mention
thunder. After that, ridging will build in aloft for the weekend
with prolonged southwest low level flow on the back side of a
stagnant southeastern surface high. Finally, could see some
convection on Tuesday as a broad upper trough moves in from the
southern Plains. Plenty of instability for thunder.
With southwesterly low level flow and plenty of sunshine, lower 90s
will be possible by Sunday at some locales per the blend. Otherwise,
highs in the 80s and lows mostly in the 60s are likely.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for 070000z TAF issuance/...
Issued at 1008 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017
Updated current conditions only. Previous discussion follows...
VFR through the period. Northeasterly winds of 8-12 kts (with a
few gusts to 20 possible in the first hour) at issuance time will
drop in speed to 5-10 kts through the overnight and then pick up
again to around 8-12 kts through the day Wednesday. Few to
scattered cu over the eastern sites will dissipate in the next
hour or so leaving only cirrus around and thus did not include the
cu in the current taf line. Could see more VFR cu around daybreak
and hanging around through much of the day tomorrow at KIND and
KBMG, but KLAF and KHUF may be west enough to avoid these.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
919 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017
.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 2z, latest satellite imagery and RAP analysis show the upper
level low that has been plaguing our area the last few days
finally moving off to our southeast with a surface cold front
analyzed over far northern Mississippi. Regional radars show two
distinct areas of showers and storms in the deformation region of
the aforementioned low: 1) over the Delta and southeast Arkansas
where better CAPE around 2000 J/kg has allowed for more robust
updrafts with a few reports of gusty winds and small hail, and 2)
a dissipating band of showers from Meridian southwest to just east
of Brookhaven. These showers have been efficient rainfall
producers in a very moist environment characteristic of 2 inch
PWATs per latest SPC mesoanalysis and observed 00z soundings from
JAN and LIX. For the remainder of the evening, the two areas of
storms and showers are progged to continue weakening and
dissipate/move out of the area as the low and upper level support
pulls away. The cold front to our north will continue to drop
south and will be just north of the I-20 corridor by daybreak.
This will allow overnight temperatures to drop down into the mid
to upper 60s with the coolest temps in the north closer to the
cold front. /TW/
Prior discussion below:
Tonight through Wednesday: The upper-level low pressure system
which has brought several days of rainfall to our region is now
moving southeast of our forecast area. Rain chances will be on the
decline through the rest of this evening and tonight under drier
northeast flow aloft. PWAT values are still near 2.0 inches per
RAP analysis this afternoon, so ongoing showers and storms will
still be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. A Limited
Threat for flash flooding will therefore continue into the early
evening hours before precip chances decrease. Quiet weather is
expected across the forecast area by tomorrow, with sunny skies
and breezy winds around 10 to 20 mph and a few higher gusts.
Wednesday night through Monday: At the beginning of the period, the
mid level weather pattern will be dominated by a cold core low over
the Ohio valley with ridging over the eastern Rockies and High
Plains. In the lower levels, light northerly winds and dewpoints in
the 50s will promote another cool night over the forecast area. The
atypical airmass will produce another relatively cool day Thursday.
After morning lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s, highs will only
manage to rise to 80 to 85. Friday morning also looks cool, but
rising heights will begin bringing max temps closer to normal.
Light low level southerly flow will recommence Saturday as heights
continue to rise aloft. With the lag in low level moisture, maximums
look to rise into the lower 90s. Low level dewpoints rising back
into the 60s and lower 70s will promote more cloud cover and prevent
maximums from rising quite as high as Saturday, but near 90 may
still be attainable. The better dewpoints may also lead to some
airmass convection, but mainly over southern sections as capping
inversion over northern sections limits this potential.
By Monday into Tuesday, a weakness looks to develop in the mid level
ridge allowing the capping inversion to break down. Increasing
instability with afternoon heating each afternoon will be sufficient
for airmass convection to develop, more typical for this time of
year./26/
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion: SHRA activity wl continue to come in vcty of
TAF sites through 02Z but wl end earlier this evening. VFR conds
were observed at all TAF sites at 2330Z and away from SHRA, VFR
conds will prevail through Wednesday. Skies wl clr Wednesday but
gusty north winds around 20kts wl develop by 16Z and cont
Wednesday aftn. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 67 83 58 82 / 27 1 1 1
Meridian 67 84 57 82 / 46 3 1 1
Vicksburg 67 83 58 82 / 21 1 1 1
Hattiesburg 69 86 60 86 / 55 4 1 1
Natchez 68 82 60 81 / 33 2 1 1
Greenville 65 82 59 81 / 21 1 1 1
Greenwood 65 82 57 80 / 15 1 1 1
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
TW/NF/22/26
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
722 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 718 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017
Updated forecast to reflect current trends on radar. HRR and other
models have backed off significantly on precipitation. Also added
some early morning patchy fog over southwest Nebraska with winds
becoming easterly and light through the early morning hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017
The forecast follows a blend of the previous forecast and the
HRRR/RAP models this evening. A cold front appears to be pressing
south and this is setting up the better focus across KS and Scntl
Neb. Pops are capped at 40 percent for this forecast and that could
be generous given the HRRR is very spotty with the rainfall.
WPC suggested some locally heavy rainfall potential tonight with
precipitable water increasing to 1.33 inches or higher. A modest
rain center formed last night over Wheeler county with radar
estimating around 3 inches. The 18z RAP model shows this occurring
over KS tonight.
The isolated rain chance Wednesday revolves around residual moisture
and weak forcing. The temperature forecast is a blend of guidance
plus bias correction for lows mostly in the 50s and highs around 80
Wednesday.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017
High pressure ridging will remain nearly stationary from the desert
southwest into the Rockies though the end of the week. This
generates weak northwest flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the
ridge across our area. Surface flow will mostly be south to
southeast which should maintain decent low level moisture through
the end of the week. Afternoon heating should lead to isolated
showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon as there will be little
capping aloft.
By Friday a large upper level low pressure system should be digging
into the Pacific northwest. This will nudge the upper level ridging
east over our area. With the ridge expect 700mb temperatures to rise
into the mid and possibly upper teens Celsius, which will create a
strong capping inversion aloft. So the weekend looks mainly dry
despite increasing humidity with the flow off a wide open Gulf of
Mexico.
Temperatures will be near average Thursday. Then by weeks end a big
warm up and heat wave for the weekend as the ridging aloft spreads
across the central plains. Highs in the mid 90s, possibly warmer,
for Saturday and lower to mid 90s Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017
Isolated thunderstorms and scattered rainshowers from KONL to KORD
to KMCK will dissipate through the evening. As surface high
pressure moves into western Nebraska tonight winds will shift to
the northeast and east and create upslope flow into the higher
elevations of western Nebraska with some MVFR ceilings developing
across southwest Nebraska through late evening and then becoming
IFR through the early morning on Wednesday...with areas of fog.
This area is from KIML to KLBF to KOGA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...power
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Power
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
944 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017
.UPDATE...
...Locally Heavy Rain through Mid Week with a Marginal Risk for
Severe Storms through Wednesday...
Tonight...Band of convection recently pushed offshore Martin county
but areas of rain lingered northward to near Melbourne. The 00z
sounding at Tampa showed some drier air had worked into the low/mid
levels. Water vapor imagery showed this drier air with a dry slot
wrapping around mid/upper level low that was along the north Gulf
coast. Some of this drier air likely worked across our northern
areas as mid level clouds cleared out quickly there late in the day.
The latest HRRR model is showing convection remaining active over
south Florida overnight and lingers an area of moderate rain over
the south half of our area. This looks reasonable and will carry 50-
60 POPs there. The models don`t paint much of a chance for showers
or storms overnight in the north, but leave low chances.
Wed-Wed Night (Previous Discussion)...Weakening upper troughing
across the southeast U.S. and Gulf Coast States will slowly move
eastward and lie across the central FL peninsula by sunrise Thu
morning. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary across the FL
Panhandle and north Gulf will make very slow progress into north-
central FL by the same time early Thu morning. Deep southwesterly
flow will continue across the FL peninsula with breezy southwesterly
surface winds as the pressure gradient remains fairly tight, though
lighter winds at times possible as convection distorts the wind
field. These SWRLY winds are forecast to remain elevated a bit again
during the evening/overnight periods. Deep moisture remains present
with PWATs in excess of 2 inches during the day falling back a bit
Wed night to 1.75-2.00 inches. Will continue the high PoPs with
80pct areawide.
SPC continues to keep us in a marginal svr threat for Wed, but
this will remain dependent on any surface heating as temperatures
aloft remain relatively warm. Locally heavy rainfall with nuisance
minor flooding possible. Many stronger cells will be efficient
precipitation producers over a short time and any repeated
training echoes could aid in rainfall amounts piling up. Storm
steering will be from southwest twd northeast at 30 to 40 mph.
&&
.AVIATION...An area of MVFR-IFR stratus was developing behind
precip shield, mainly northward from KMLB-KMCO-KTIX. Guidance did
not hint at this and guidance is showing low level winds increasing,
so we`re not planning on the IFR ceilings to stick around all night.
Southern terminals will have occasional light-moderate rainfall well
into the overnight with some periods of MVFR conditions. On Wed,
expect showers/storms to form in the afternoon. Strong atmospheric
wind fields and possibly some mid level drier air could lead to
storms with strong wind gusts.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight-Wed Night...South/southwest gradient winds have been
disrupted by convection, but guidance is showing winds 20-25 knots
offshore tonight through Wed. Have made some adjustments to the
winds based on the latest guidance. The wave models only bring seas
to 5 feet for most of this period, so have gone with a Small Craft
Advisory for Winds in the offshore waters. The nearshore zones will
have exercise caution statements.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory for Winds until 4 PM EDT Wednesday
for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard
County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...Lascody
IMPACT WX...Sharp
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
855 PM PDT Tue Jun 6 2017
.SYNOPSIS...Dry and seasonable weather continues through Wednesday
with the marine layer around 1500 feet along the coast. By
Thursday morning a late season cold front brings light rain into
the North Bay. The South Bay and Monterey Bay region will likely
remain dry and may actually warm in the warm and moist sector of
the storm on Thursday. Cool northwest flow then develops on Friday
as the upper trough moves inland. High pressure begins to rebuild
over the weekend with a return to dry weather and a gradual
warming trend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...As of 8:55 PM PDT Tuesday...Slightly cooler
temperatures were felt across the region today as the increase
in the westerly gradient coupled with a 1200 foot marine layer
allowed cooler marine air to infiltrate farther inland and
moderate temperatures a bit. Afternoon highs reached into the mid
50s to lower 60s along the coast, 60s around the Bay, 70s and 80s
inland with a few 90s in the warmest interior valleys. Wednesday
will be similar to today with slight cooling expected over the
interior while coastal location see little to no change. High
clouds will being increasing through the day Wednesday ahead of an
approaching frontal system that is forecast to impact the region
Thursday. The best chance of precipitation is expected across the
North Bay with only a slight chance of showers anticipated south
of the Golden Gate.
From previous discussion...The front will begin to approach the
coast after sunset Wednesday with possible rain arriving to the
Sonoma County coast around midnight on Thursday. Now, there are
several differences in timing with the models. The ECMWF brings
the precipitation to onshore earlier than both the 12km NAM and
GFS. More or less split the difference and closely followed the
NAM for bringing the rain inland to North Bay early Thursday and
eventually the Bay Area by late morning or early afternoon.
Confidence remains medium for the timing.
At this point, rain amounts do look to be generally light with
the highest totals north of the Golden Gate. Parts of Sonoma
County may receive up to 0.75", but should note that our in-house
local WRF model does suggest locally higher amounts of an inch or
more. Rain amounts south of the Golden Gate will decrease heading
south, with some areas such as the Santa Clara Valley likely to be
rain shadowed and may receive little or no rain. Monterey County
will likely remain dry for most of the day.
A few lingering showers or light rain may hang around the Bay Area
and Monterey Bay early Friday, but clearing should continue
through the day as the precipitation pushes east. High pressure
will begin to build over the the region by the weekend with dry
conditions expected.
&&
.AVIATION...As of 5:55 PM PDT Tuesday...In many respects the 0Z
package is similar to yesterday with clouds forecast to
potentially move inland later this evening. Satellite shows more
clouds compared to 24 hours and with a stronger west-to-east
gradient concern we could see CIGs impacting terminals earlier
than last night. For the latest forecast, kept times similar to
the previous package which drops them down to MVFR/IFR generally
after 09Z. Definitely concerned this could be too late as some
guidance does bring it in earlier (maybe 05Z), so will keep a very
close eye on the satellite and adjust as needed. Low confidence
forecast north of Monterey Bay.
Vicinity of KSFO...Difficult forecast as the stronger westerly
push at the surface will bring a better chance for CIGs compared
to last night. HRRR and local WRF indicates that the clouds will
stay just to the north (aiming more at KOAK), so will keep the
timing around 10Z. However, worth noting that both the HRRR and
WRF actually do not bring any CIGs in overnight, so even a late
start could be wrong. Low confidence forecast.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR to IFR CIGs now at KMRY with similar
conditions expected at KSNS shortly based on satellite and model
trends. Return of VFR around 16Z tomorrow. Moderate confidence.
&&
.MARINE...as of 8:55 PM PDT Tuesday...Northwesterly winds will
continue to diminish overnight into Wednesday as a ridge of high
pressure weakens. Winds will turn southerly by Wednesday night and
Thursday morning ahead of a cold frontal system. Rain will
accompany the cold frontal passage Thursday especially for our
northern waters. There will be a chance of showers going into
Thursday night.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tngt...SCA...Mry Bay until 3 AM
SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm until 3 AM
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 3 AM
SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 3 AM
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm until 3 AM
SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: CW/Rowe
AVIATION: Bell
MARINE: Canepa
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
634 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017
Weak convection continues to percolate in axis of elevated and
surface-based thetae from southeast Colorado into south central
Nebraska. May see a slight uptic in activity through the rest of
the afternoon into the early evening as several weak eddies drop
southward along backside of longwave trough. CAM are showing
slight differences in eastern progression of convection into the
early evening, though experimental HRRR appeared to have the best
handle on location and coverage. As such, used it as guide for
convection in the very short term.
Though afternoon convection mainly has been across south central
Nebraska, expect an increase in elevated convection overnight from
central South Dakota into north central Nebraska. Shortwave
dropping out of Manitoba into northern plains enhances isentropic
ascent along 305K. Previous forecast already had this evolution
covered and only tweaked timing and location a little bit. Expect
any convection that develops to dissipate by mid-morning, as upper
level riding builds over the region. Though low level boundary
will remain across the area, extent of diabatic/diurnal convection
on Wednesday in question, as H7 temperatures of 5C+ advect into
southern portions of the forecast area, effectively capping area.
Upper ridging remains in place Wednesday night, then begins to
break down as slow moving northern Plains shortwave begins to
merge/sync with quasi-stationary Ohio Valley upper level H5 low.
Cooler H5/H7 temperatures may allow for another round of diurnal
convection, but with weak dynamic forcing and weak convergence
along boundary, feel only low PoPs warranted. By Friday, area
under the influence of northwest flow aloft, and precipitation
chances look minimal.
As for temperatures, guidance has been on the low side, not
handling low level dryness and superadiabtic warming. Decided to
continue previous forecast trends of going slightly above guidance
while area remains dry.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017
Upper level ridging builds into the plains by the weekend.
Temperatures look very warm on Saturday and Sunday, with H8
temperatures 23-26C advecting into the area with low level flow
from a southwesterly direction. Upper ridging and temperatures will
inhibit precipitation chances as well. Upper ridge begins to break
down early next week, as long wave trough digs over western U.S.
Ensembles depicting quite a bit of spread with depth and timing of
trough from western U.S. into the plains, so keeping forecast dry
until at least Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017
VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites throughout the 24-hr
cycle. A few passing showers or isolated thunderstorm is possible
in the first couple hours at KOFK but otherwise sites should
remain dry.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fortin
LONG TERM...Fortin
AVIATION...Kern