Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/05/17

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
746 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front, will bring showers, and a few thunderstorms, to the region this evening. Periodic showers and thunderstorms will continue through Tuesday. A gradual trend towards less shower activity, and warmer temperatures, will start Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 6 pm update... Wide range in temperatures from around 70 in the west to 50s in the east. Some clearing with the warm front into the western counties. The steady rain over the area has moved to the southeast and out. Now showers are forming in central NY. Some instability could set off a few thunderstorms starting in the northwest then moving east. Minor adjustments to mostly the evening forecast. previous discussion... National mosaic radar imagery continues to show batch of showers rapidly moving east of central NY and the northern tier of PA with showers lingering longer for the rest of northeast PA to Sullivan Co. NY. HRRR and the 3km NAMnest look to have an excellent handle on the timing of this precipitation shield and have used their reflectivity fields as guidance for POPS into this evening and into the overnight. Once the upper level wave that was supporting this precipitation moves east, there won`t be much upper level forcing for the evening or overnight period. Strong thermal and moisture advections associated with this wave will push a warm front into the Finger Lakes to Lower Susquehanna Valley of PA by this evening. This front will remain hung up through the night and will not have much additional forcing as mentioned above. So we taper down POPs during the evening and overnight with only minimal chances for thunder. Then for Monday, next upper level wave arrives by afternoon into the eastern Great Lakes as southwesterly flow in the low-levels will continue to erode cool surface layer air stuck east and southeast of the Finger Lakes. It looks like warmer and higher dewpoint air make it to just east of I-81 Monday afternoon. This will lead to destabilization west of the boundary and mean- layer CAPE of 500 to 1000 J/kg. Shear profiles are fairly weak in the low-levels but 0-6 km shear is projected to be around 45 knots. So we anticipate another round of convection as this next upper wave moves east and pushes a cold front into western NY. There is more potential for severe weather with this front than the current wave moving through the region. We will update our HWO and mention chance for isolated severe convection on Monday afternoon in line with SPC marginal risk. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper low drops from western Ontario into central PA Monday night and Tuesday and remains there. This will bring a continued chance of showers and a few daytime thunderstorms through the period. Models do show some low level drying, especially by Wednesday, but with a very cold pool of air aloft, instability showers will remain. Daytime sunshine will simply result in more clouds so temperatures will continue to be below normal into Wednesday at least. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Approaching wave and surface front finally begins to kick the old 500mb low out of the area later Thursday and Friday. So, the chance of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms will lessen and daytime highs will rise. Of course, the approaching front will trigger another chance of showers and storms on Saturday, but system is progressive and should clear the area near the end of the period. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At 23Z...A surface warm front bisected CNY with little to no expectation that it will move much tonight. That means the next 12 hours are a low confidence forecast with respect to ceiling and visibility trends. A disturbance in the mid levels of the atmosphere will sweep through this evening, providing a risk of SHRA, or isolated TSRA between 01Z-06Z. Boundary layer moisture is high, so this could go either way with areas northeast of the front likely to experience stratus ceilings, while to the southwest...enough evening clearing could allow for the formation of fog and very low ceiling restrictions. Guidance is all over the place suggesting both scenarios, but it is not performing well at the current time. Took a shot with at least IFR restrictions developing at most locations late...but fuel minimums could also be reached. A slow lift of ceilings is expected on Monday with MVFR most of the morning followed by eventual VFR ceilings, and a shot at afternoon TSRA as upper low digs into the region. Winds light E-SE at KSYR-KRME to the north of the warm front with light SW-S winds elsewhere. Similar wind pattern on Monday with speeds increasing 5-10 knots. Outlook... Monday night...Operational Impacts Likely. Chance SHRA/TSRA. Tuesday...Operational Impacts Likely. SHRA Likely. Wednesday-Thursday...Operational Impacts Possible. Early AM fog. Chance SHRA/TSRA. Friday...Operational Impacts Possible. Chance SHRA/TSRA. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJN/TAC NEAR TERM...DJN/TAC SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...JAB
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
915 PM MDT Sun Jun 4 2017 .UPDATE... Cold pool from convection over the western mountains and foothills late afternoon has translated into central zones. Convection intensified around 6 pm for an hour or so but has since subsided, with diminishing showers/tstms along the residual outflow boundary from Near Roundup to near Hardin. This activity is expected to dissipate over the next hour or so. Further west a cold front was located just to the west of the forecast area. Convection associated with the cold front will work into western zones late evening into the overnight hours, though intensity will be reduced from earlier this evening due to nocturnal stabilization. Expect the cold front into Billings around 3am based on latest hi-res guidance, with isolated to scattered showers/tstms moving across the area with it. Will continue to see isolated to scattered showers/tstms into the morning hours across the west, diminishing in the afternoon. Eastern areas will see more late morning and afternoon showers and storms, and this area has the potential for a few stronger storms as instability along and ahead of the cold front increases during the afternoon. Made a few adjustments for latest radar and model trends, mainly to precipitation and cloud cover. Rest of the forecast in good shape. Chambers && .SHORT TERM...valid for Mon and Tue... Some CU are already starting to develop this afternoon over the Beartooth/Absaroka mountains, with a few lightning strikes around Livingston. The latest runs of the HRRR keep most of the thunderstorm development west of the area, with just scattered activity across Park, Sweet Grass, and Wheatland counties. The high-resolution CAMs continue to show the activity remaining fairly weak. There is enough instability that some small hail is possible. Also, there could be some gusty winds with the dewpoint spreads across the area. Overnight as the trough moves east, a cold front will begin to move across the area. As it does some scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are possible. With this being overnight without the aid of solar insolation, the thunderstorm activity should be fairly limited. Tomorrow the eastern zones will be able to warm up ahead of the cold front. Instability and shear still looks fairly marginal along the Dakota border, but there is still a possibility that a few storms could be stronger. Behind the front Tuesday temperatures will be cooler, but still above normal. Conditions will be dry across most of the area but isolated showers in the Beartooth mountains. Reimer .LONG TERM...valid for Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun... A strong ridge is still forecast to dominate our weather at midweek with just a slight chance of mainly mountain showers/T-storms. Progs from both the GFS and ECMWF continue to indicate a strong upper trough from the Pacific NW moving into the northern Rockies by Thursday. This will begin to spread some convection into our CWA by Thursday evening. Much strong dynamics move across our region Friday/Friday night as a double-barreled upper trough sets up from southern Saskatchewan to Oregon. After the initial dynamics move through we would be under a dry slot and strong SW flow by the weekend resulting in mainly dry windy conditions. However this turns out, it does appear like a strong ridge through Thursday then an unsettled transition of some type late in the work week. At this time we feel severe weather is possible Friday and/or Saturday for our CWA. More dynamics come through again around Monday evening...but that is a long ways out to rely on such details. BT && .AVIATION... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible west of KMLS overnight, spreading east through Monday morning. A cold front will pass through the region tonight into Monday morning causing winds to turn out of the northwest. More showers and thunderstorms are possible over the mountains and eastern areas Monday afternoon. In general, VFR will prevail through the period with MVFR possible under the heaviest showers/thunderstorms. STP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 061/077 052/076 052/084 056/090 058/091 056/079 049/073 22/T 10/U 01/U 00/U 01/B 33/T 31/B LVM 053/072 044/075 045/082 048/088 050/085 047/070 040/067 32/T 21/U 11/B 11/U 01/B 33/T 32/T HDN 059/078 051/079 051/087 055/092 057/094 056/082 048/076 23/T 10/B 01/U 01/U 01/U 22/T 21/B MLS 063/080 055/079 052/084 056/088 060/091 060/084 051/078 13/T 20/U 01/U 00/U 01/U 12/T 21/B 4BQ 058/083 053/077 050/083 053/087 057/090 059/084 050/078 13/T 51/B 02/T 02/T 01/U 12/T 21/B BHK 058/086 052/076 046/079 050/083 054/087 056/083 047/076 14/T 61/B 01/U 01/N 01/N 11/N 11/B SHR 056/074 049/074 047/082 050/086 052/088 053/079 046/073 24/T 41/B 12/T 12/T 01/U 12/T 21/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1110 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving upper low will bring several days of unsettled weather to the region with cooler temperatures poised to settle in through at least midweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Weak shortwave pressing southeast in Pa causing coverage of showers to increase across central Pa late this evening. 02Z radar loop showing numerous showers lined up along remnants of east/west oriented low level jet and associated plume of higher PWATs across southern/eastern Pa. Another batch of convection is moving into northwest Pa at 02Z, where SPC mesoanalysis is showing some meager CAPEs remaining. Based on recent HRRR runs and radar trends, will hit Warren/Mckean counties with the highest (categorical) POPs between 03Z-06Z. By late tonight (after 09Z), any remaining showers should be confined to the southern tier of Pa, along axis of dying low level jet/plume of higher PWATs, as the latest HRRR and earlier HREFV2 suggest. A thunderstorm remains possible in a few spots late this evening, especially over the northwest mtns. However, given marginal instability and lack of strong large scale forcing, believe most locations will not hear thunder overnight. Upstream satellite imagery and model soundings support a fair amount of cloudiness overnight, but given the wet ground, low dwpt depressions and light wind, we probably only need a few breaks in the clouds to result in areas of fog, especially across northern Pa. Blend of latest model data supports min temps tonight from the upper 50s north to low 60s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... The upper pattern will feature a deepening upper trough that is destined to close off over the NERN and dominate the weather for much of the upcoming week. But for Monday it will mean plenty of clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms. It will be cooling in the mid/upper levels leading to steepening lapse rates. The old fashioned Total-Totals top 50 during the afternoon which suggests some low topped small hail producing thunderstorms. Highs generally in the 70s will be several degrees cooler than average. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A very slow-moving and slowly filling upper upper low will be located across the Lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio River Valley Monday night through Thursday before lifting out to the NE across the New England states Thursday night and Friday. This weather feature and its associated cold air aloft, along with a weak sfc low reflection and periods of llvl theta-E convergence will bring several additional rounds of (and mainly afternoon/early evening) showers and isolated-sct thunderstorms. GEFS indicates afternoon max temps on the order of 10-12 deg F below normal Tuesday through Thursday. Tuesday likely to be a wet and cold day for early June. Did edge temperatures down a little. Little change is expected for both Wednesday and Thursday as the cold upper low drifts almost right overhead. Look for fairly numerous afternoon showers with perhaps some isolated low-topped TSRA. A weak front will drop southeast on Friday, with some chance for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. Temperatures will slowly edge back closer to normal toward the end of the upcoming week. Went drier with next Saturday and Sunday with sfc front expect to move east of the region and an upper ridge building north into through the Ohio Valley. Guidance does suggest however that a shortwave moves through and could initiate a few showers Saturday afternoon. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Still a few showers across the area. Perhaps a rumble of thunder across the north and west. Will adjust 03Z TAFS for current activity. Earlier discussion below. Mainly an evening with clouds near 9000 feet. Band of rain across the central part of the state has moved southward since 4 PM. Just a few showers to the south now. Isolated showers and storms to the far north now, and far west. Maybe a rumble of thunder at JST, but the airmass to the east is cool and stable from rain earlier today. Some fog possible late, mainly in areas where rain fell earlier, mainly north. However, did put some fog in for a short time later tonight across the southeast. For Monday, hard to see a lot going on, so went with VCSH. .OUTLOOK... Tue-Wed...MVFR cigs NW with showers likely. Thu...Sub-VFR possible in isold-sct P.M. tstms. Fri...Brief Sub-VFR possible in isold-sct PM tstms. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...Martin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
656 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 252 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Although sfc temps are fairly uniform across E Iowa/NW Illinois, dewpoints are substantially different on either side of a cold front. To the south of the front, dewpoints were as high as 66 F at Keokuk. But to the north, the dewpoint was only 41 F at Independence. Expect a quick transition from noticeable humidity to drier, refreshing air as the cold front passes through. GOES 16 visible loop this afternoon showed a limited cumulus field south of I-80, due in part to mid/upper level cirrus clouds streaming overhead from SW to NE. These clouds have locally held sfc temps down a few degrees, preventing the formation of cumulus towers and scattered showers and storms. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday) ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 This Evening and Tonight There is still a low threat for isolated showers and thunderstorms along a cold front - mainly in the counties along and south of highway 34 west of Galesburg, IL. The HRRR has drastically backed off on coverage of showers and storms compared to what it was showing early this morning. It keeps most of the CWA completely dry through the evening, which makes sense because convergence associated with the boundary is very weak, and because of the limited cumulus formation mentioned in the Synopsis. If a few storms were to develop, MUCAPE of +2000 J/kg ahead of the boundary could support gusty winds and lightning strikes. However, deep layer shear under 25 kts will preclude the threat for severe weather. Skies clear area-wide overnight as temps drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Monday Back door cold front reinforces the cooler and drier air via steady NE winds. Forecast highs range from the mid 70s NE to the mid 80s far S/SW. Uttech .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Surface high pressure and a dry north to northwest flow aloft will provide dry weather through most of the week with temperatures trending back closer to early June climatological normals. A pattern change late week into next weekend sets up a warming trend along with chances for showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday through Thursday: High pressure builds south from the western great lakes to the mid MS River valley, under a nearly meridional flow aloft. This will feed a dry airmass into the area early in the week, featuring low dewpoints, mostly clear skies and nearly zero chances for precipitation. Tuesday will be the coolest day of the stretch, as the low level northeast flow will be strongest out of the Great Lakes. Forecast soundings suggest deep mixing will be needed to reach highs from the lower 70s over northwest Illinois to the upper 70s in southeast IA and northeast MO. A minor day to day moderation in temperatures is then likely through Thursday, when highs should reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. The dry air throughout this period will allow temperatures to cool to overnight lows in the 50s. Although low confidence, slight chance pops are maintained for Thursday afternoon across the north, where an upper level shortwave passing to the northeast may drag a weak front into the area. Friday through Sunday: The longwave upper level ridge out west begins to break down through this period, leading to a more more zonal flow aloft and warmer temperatures. Friday, the model consensus showing a combination of moisture return and a front hanging over the area justifies chance pops for thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. Beyond, the flattening upper ridge is shown passing over the region with the main surface warm front setting up well to the north. The absence of boundaries or upper level forcing over the area through the weekend will be unfavorable for showers and thunderstorms and a dry forecast is maintained for Saturday and Sunday. Breezy southerly winds will advect higher moisture northward, for noticeably more humid conditions with daytime temperatures returning to the 80s and overnight lows holding in the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening) ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 A few showers and thunderstorms being observed along and south of a boundary from KOOA to KGBG as late this afternoon. Coverage is very isolated and only a few areas have seen more intense convection. Even with that, lightning has been infrequent. This activity should move south and diminish through this evening with quiet and VFR conditions expected across the entire area though the day Monday. High pressure will build into the Upper Mississippi River Valley tonight and Monday with an influx of much drier and cooler air as well as a wind switch to the north/northeast. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Uttech SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...Sheets AVIATION...Brooks
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
616 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 A few pop-up showers or thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into early evening once again today. The most favored areas appear to be along and east of Highway 281 where cumulus development is most robust and also in southeastern edges of the area, where the HRRR has been showing some activity developing an hour or two later. Like yesterday, this activity has little to no shear to work with, so storm motion will be very slow. The good news is that instability is also relatively low...even lower than yesterday, so strong storms are highly unlikely. Dry weather should prevail tomorrow afternoon, although we will likely get some more afternoon cumulus development with temperatures once again in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Dry conditions should prevail through Monday night, but chances for rain and thunderstorms will return on Tuesday as a shortwave passes well to our north and pushes a front into our area. Unfortunately there are some pretty significant model differences as early as Tuesday afternoon. The ECMWF is slower and therefore much more reserved with precipitation in central Nebraska until Tuesday evening. The GFS verification numbers have been pretty poor lately, so I tend to side with the ECMWF idea that most of the daytime of Tuesday will be dry, until storms roll in from the Nebraska panhandle. The NAM shows up to 2000 J of MLCAPE, but limited shear. Still, if storms can organize sufficiently, I think strong to severe storms are possible. Without much upper-level forcing this boundary will stall in the area, along with ample moisture. This will allow for thunderstorm redevelopment on Wednesday, although according to both the GFS and NAM, there will be little instability to work with. For the most part, models trend drier for Thursday through Saturday, although the model blend still includes some scattered slight PoPs. Given that we will be in northwest flow and that models have been so variable, I opted to keep these PoPs as-is. Latest model guidance brings a stronger front through the area on Sunday, so this will be another time period to watch closely. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday) Issued at 615 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Expect VFR conditions to continue through the forecast period. With high pressure over the central Plains, winds will remain light and variable at the surface. A few showers east of the terminals should weaken around sunset with clear skies anticipated overnight. Could have some cumulus development again Monday afternoon, but expect dry weather. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mangels LONG TERM...Mangels AVIATION...Ewald
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
949 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure will dominate the weather with slightly above normal temperatures through midday Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will increase late Monday into Tuesday ahead of a slow moving cold front that should push offshore by early Wednesday. High pressure, dry weather and a brief cooldown will follow for the mid to late week period of next week. By next weekend, the area will experience a warmup. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 930 PM Sunday...A rather deep stable onshore SSE-SSW flow with a depth of 3k to 4.5k ft has pushed well inland, ie. north and west of the ILM CWA. This has negated any convective development and convection that tries to move into the ILM CWA from upstream nearly immediately falls apart. Have lowered the chances for convection overnight based on the latest KLTX 88D trends combined with the latest HRRR model which remains nearly convective free across the ILM CWA overnight. Looks by mid to late daytime morning Mon is the time-line for convection to begin breaking out across much of the ILM CWA. This a result of PWS increasing to 1.75 to 2.00 inches and the eroding of that sfc based marine layer as winds in the lower levels have become more southwesterly in direction. Plenty of upstream clouds within sw-w flow aloft and as a result have indicated skies becoming variably or mostly cloudy by daybreak Mon with the least amount of cloudiness along the immediate coast and offshore. Previous.................................................. As of 3 PM Sunday...Southerly flow around high pressure over the western Atlantic is once again bringing us summer-like temperatures with a mix of sun and clouds this afternoon. There is enough low level moisture for widespread cu field development along with some very isolated diurnally-driven convection. Much like we have seen in recent days, very dry air aloft will limit this convection in height and coverage. Overnight period will start initially dry with fair skies and lows of around 70. However, model soundings show a steady moistening of the column with clouds thickening and lowering and chances for convection increasing towards morning. The column continues to moisten Monday as moisture advects in at all levels. P/W`s will be up around 2 inches. Approaching cold front and a deepening upper trough with several embedded weak disturbances will provide mechanisms for a more extensive rainfall, with showers and thunderstorms likely during the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Sunday...A cold front dropping into the region and stalling while several vorticity centers cross the region promises to offer good rain chances for most of the period. Additionally the area may see some healthy QPF amounts with deep pre-frontal moisture still in place for most of the time. In fact it is towards the end of the period that the main upper trough begins to sink southward and push the front and its associated moisture off the coast. Rain chances will wind down inland and then along the coast, though they will linger longer along the coast. Various models seem to be in agreement that rainfall amounts will be graded NW to SE with highest amounts SE but they differ just enough in the position of the bullseye that QPF amounts confidence is somewhat eroded. Even the drier GFS implies that most areas should net .25-.5", whilst the WRF implies twice as much possible. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Guidance has come into better agreement that a cold front from Tuesday will stall just off the coast on Wednesday as upper troughing persists across the east. As this front sits offshore Wednesday, a vorticity streamer rotating through the base of the upper trough will spawn additional convection across the area. Most of this will remain offshore, but higher POP is warranted along the immediate coast where the front will be in close enough proximity to enhance shower/tstm activity. By Thursday, this front should push far enough away that only scattered diurnal convection is expected, and this will again be the case Fri and Sat as the surface high moves offshore but broad troughing persists. Friday may actually feature slightly better POP chances than Thu/Sat as PWATs begin to increase on return flow and a weak vort lobe moves overhead. While guidance differs in the evolution of the flow for the weekend, expect warming and drying conditions as ridging expands from the central part of the country. This will allow temps to rebound back above seasonable values for the weekend, after several days slightly below climo the first half of the extended. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 00Z...VFR conditions all terminals to start this evening with the majority of the evenings convection remaining just outside of the ILM CWA. Could see a few storms drift into the ILM CWA. However, with a 3k to 4.5k foot sfc based marine layer across the ILM CWA from the SSE-SSW onshore winds, what`s left of this convection will not last for much longer once the days insolation is over-with. This shown with latest 88D trends. Guidance does bring in a MVFR and possibly IFR ceilings in a window around sunrise mon. With progged soundings increasing PWs to 1.5 to 2.0 inches during daylight Mon, CAPE becomes more avbl when compared to today. Will likely observe convection popping up along the sea breeze during Mon daylight morning and extending inland by midday thru the remainder of the 00Z TAF Issuance period. Not expecting severe but could see strong activity with much reduced vsby and ceilings in the IFR department. S-SSW at 5 to 10 kt winds this evening will veer to the SW at 5 kt or less during the pre-dawn Mon hrs thru midday. The sea breeze will develop and progress inland with winds backing to the south at 10-15 kt, with gusts up to 20 kt along the coastal terminals. Extended Outlook...Chance of flight restrictions with showers and thunderstorms ahead of a slow moving front Mon night through Tuesday and possibly into early Wed. VFR to follow late Wed thru Fri. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 930 PM Sunday...Sfc ridging will extend across the area tonight into Mon resulting in a mainly southerly wind direction. Enough of a sfc pg will yield 10-15 kt wind speeds overnight into daytime Mon. Significant seas will run 2 to 3 ft. The 1 foot, ESE, 10 second period ground swell will give way to a more dominating 3 to 5 second period wind wave. Could see isolated convection pop up towards daybreak Mon. Previous............................................... As of 3 PM Sunday...High pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to drive a modest southerly flow of 10 to 15 kts through much of the period. Winds will gradually increase on Monday as a cold front begins to drop SE across the Carolinas, with winds increasing to as much as 20 kts over the outer fringes of our waters during the late afternoon hours. Seas of around 2 ft today and tonight will increase to around 3 ft on Monday. SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS of 300 PM Sunday...A front dropping into the area will keep southwesterly flow over the waters for most of the period. The exception will be towards the very end of the period at which time the front gets thrust offshore. This will veer the flow to W and then NW late Tuesday night and even N by daybreak Wednesday. The prefrontal regime appears to be the stronger so the post frontal environment should offer abating wind and seas even though the windshift may slightly steepen wave faces. LONG TERM MARINE /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Cold front stalled off the coast Wednesday will shift further offshore Thursday as high pressure expands eastward from the middle of the country. This will produce an extended period of NE winds around 10 kts Wednesday and Thursday. This high will re-center offshore during Friday causing a reduction in wind speeds as the gradient relaxes, as well as a shift in direction to the south late Friday. Seas of 2-4 ft will be common Wed and Thu thanks to a 5 sec NE wind wave becoming predominant despite a continuing 7-8 sec SE swell. Late in the period this swell will become the primary wave group as the winds ease and shift to the south, and seas fall to 1-2 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...DCH/REK SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
903 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 854 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Surface data this evening continues to show the front is alow to moving into the northern parts of area. Winds over northern IL though show that cooler, drier airmass is on tape for region. Moisture channel satellite shows upper vort lobe rotating south through WI and MN toward IL, which will push the front through area on Monday. SPC mesoanalysis continues to show some instability, which may support limited, isolated to widely scattered storms with the front into the early morning hours on Monday. Overnight, chances will drop off, with little convergence on the front. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 19z/2pm surface analysis shows weak cold front extending from southern Lake Michigan to southern Iowa. Ahead of the boundary, temperatures have once again climbed into the upper 80s and lower 90s across much of central Illinois...with corresponding SBCAPES of 1500-2500J/kg. While the front itself remains inactive at this point, isolated convection is beginning to develop further south into the warm sector...especially south of I-70 where deeper moisture profiles exist. Showers and thunderstorms will become most numerous over the next few hours across the SE KILX CWA, while only widely scattered convection develops further north across the remainder of the area. In fact, many high-res models such as the HRRR are not indicating much development at all immediately along the front. As a result, will continue to focus highest 40-50 PoPs across the southeast counties, with just 20-30 PoPs further north. The front will sag southward tonight, but will not completely clear the area until early Monday morning. Despite loss of daytime instability, cannot rule out an isolated shower/storm ahead of the front across the southern half of the CWA after midnight. Once the front drops into the Ohio River Valley, a cooler/drier airmass will arrive on Monday. High temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 80s, while dewpoints slip into the 50s. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Pronounced upper trough over eastern Canada into the northeast U.S. will keep the Midwest under the influence of N/NW flow for much of the week. As a result, seasonable temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s and dry weather is expected Tuesday through Thursday. After that, a short-wave is progged to drop southeastward from the mean trough over New England. As it does, it will push a weak cold front toward central Illinois by the end of the week. Models have not adequately pinned down the timing of this process yet, with the 12z June 4 GFS and ECMWF both delaying it until Friday. It appears the boundary will become parallel to the upper flow and stall somewhere in the vicinity...resulting in rain chances primarily on Friday. Given presence of high pressure over the Deep South, think moisture return will be limited...thus widespread rainfall will not be likely. After that, upper ridging will begin to build by next weekend, allowing temperatures to climb back into the middle to upper 80s by Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Radar loop shows through 00z that the outflow from southeast cwa convection had moved north into jacksonville to near Lincoln to near Paxton line. This boundary has shifted winds to southwest, but as it moves farther north, its affect will diminish. Isolated convection developed on boundary in some locations. Main frontal boundary over north central sections, seen in surface observations approaching Peoria area, extending nearly east-west. This will be slow to drift south this evening, therefore keeping chance of few isolated storms early this evening. Winds will shift overnight to northwest behind front and with only cirrus for clouds, that will continue into day tomorrow. Therefore VFR conditions will prevail. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Goetsch SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Goetsch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1146 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 A cold front will move through the area, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight into early Monday. Then high pressure will bring cool and dry conditions mid week. Another system will bring more rain chances on Friday. Warmer air will return for next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/... Issued at 1003 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 UPDATE... Lowered overnight lows a few degrees, otherwise no changes. A few showers and thunderstorms will linger into the night as a cold front continues to move through the area. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the mid 60s. Currently, temperatures across the area are ranging from the low to upper 70s. Updated grids have been sent. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Tonight, the area of convergence will sink south ahead of the cold front. Some influence of the upper system to the south could impact the southwest system. Models differ on coverage of convection with these features. For example, the HRRR keeps changing its solution each run. Without decent forcing, will keep PoPs in chance category tonight. A model blend looks good for low temperatures with the relatively humid air in place. && .SHORT TERM.../Monday through Wednesday/ Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Models are close enough that the model blend initialization was accepted for most items. The actual cold front, as well as an upper trough, will move through on Monday. Forcing is not impressive with these features, and there is little convergence at the surface. Will allow a low chance for convection early in the far south, otherwise will go dry. That being said, cannot rule out an isolated shower developing during the afternoon with the upper trough, but feel odds are below the threshold for mentioning. An upper low will meander around the Lake Erie area Monday night into Wednesday, and some spokes of energy will rotate around the low and will nudge into the eastern forecast area. At the moment, feel that forcing will be low enough to not mention any PoPs for the area. However, like Monday afternoon, cannot rule out an isolated shower Tuesday or Wednesday afternoons across the east. If things continue to nudge westward, may have to introduce PoPs with later forecasts. Temperatures will cool down as colder air flows in on the back side of the upper low. Highs by Wednesday will only be in the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/... Issued at 222 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 12z GFS and 00z ECMWF in general agreement that Wednesday night will start off with an upper low spinning over western Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York and an upper ridge over the Missouri Valley and western Great Lakes. Upstream kicker will boot the upper low off the Canadian Maritimes on Friday as it dives southeast across the lower Great Lakes. This could help spark a few storms Friday and Friday night per the blend. Otherwise, high pressure should provide dry weather the rest of the weekend. Temperatures will start off slightly below normal in the mid and upper 70s on Thursday but warm up to above normal by Saturday with highs in the 80s per blend. Should be plenty of sunshine as well. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 05/0600Z TAF Update/... Issued at 1142 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 A few showers and thunderstorms will continue to drift through central Indiana into the night, but conditions will generally be at VFR levels. The only exception will be some possible MVFR fog development early this morning. Winds will generally be light and variable. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...50/TDUD SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....MK AVIATION...TDUD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
757 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 743 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Showers and storms move out of the area in the early overnight as a boundary continues to move south. Behind that, a front will sink south from Michigan early Monday bringing dry air to the region. A shower or storm is possible during the day Monday, but severe weather is not anticipated. Thereafter, mostly dry weather is anticipated for the first half of the work week as high pressure remains to the west of the region. Highs will be in the 70s for much of the work week as well. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight) Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 As earlier feared, surface dewpoints struggling to climb out of the low/mid 60s, far from most raw guidance. This is likely due to deep mixing/high sun angle and limited agricultural evapotranspiration this early in the season. SPC/RAP mesoanalysis does show around 2000 J/kg SBCAPE to our SW, driven mainly by temps soaring near 90F. This has eroded weak cap in place and sporadic pulse convection is firing along old differential heating boundary. Convection is still struggling some though given lack of low level moisture. DCAPE is however climbing to around 1000 J/kg with steep low level lapse rates and RAP is insistent on better moisture pooling/instability later this afternoon. Still think an isolated strong/severe storm is possible during the late afternoon and early evening but coverage and intensity appear limited. Damaging wind gusts by far the only real threat but some brief heavy rain is also possible. Convection will continue to fester across our southern CWA through most of the evening/early overnight but expect any isolated severe threat to wind down around sunset. Entirely dry conditions not expected until early Monday morning. && .LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday) Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Very little impactful weather to discuss in the long term period. Passing wave will merge with James Bay upper low and form a seasonably strong cutoff/closed low over the eastern Great Lakes through at least midweek. Trend over the past few model cycles has been a slightly more westward location of upper low, increasing the influence on our area`s weather. A couple of vorticity spokes will rotate around the upper low and, combined with relatively cool temps aloft, may support a the chance for a few showers and storms. The first chance, driven mainly by residual low level moisture and diurnal heating, will arrive tomorrow. Some weak low level convergence along secondary cold front structure but overall forcing is weak and precip mainly supported by steep-ish lapse rates. Not steep enough to generate any substantial instability/strong updrafts but a few showers possible and isolated thunder can`t be entirely ruled out. Best chances will be in the eastern CWA. Second chance for showers arrives Tue afternoon with loss of low level moisture being compensated for by better mid/upper level curvature. A few showers possible, mainly east of I-69, but thunder chances appear even lower and not worth adding a mention. No impact expected. Some non-zero chance for isolated sprinkles in our far E/SE Wed/Thur but upper low is pulling away by then with shortwave ridging and dry conditions expected. Next decent chance of rain not until Friday afternoon when next shortwave/cold front arrives. Cooler temps probably the main story. Predominate northerly flow and at least some cloud cover will keep highs on the cool side of climo. 850mb temps tank to around 5C in the core of the thermal trough late Tue/Wed. Expect highs around 70F during this time, slowly rebounding to upper 70s by the end of the week. Dewpoints on Tues and Wed will also likely drop back into the 40s, leading to a refreshing feel. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued at 743 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Showers and thunderstorms were around the region in the evening hours with mainly pulse type storms creating isolated reports of wind damage and pea sized hail. Expect these storms to die off as we head towards sunset since they are mainly forced by the day`s heat within a marginally sheared environment. A frontal boundary will then be expected to slide southeast bringing dry air into the region so expecting mostly VFR conditions through the first portion of the overnight. However, with rain that occurred at FWA and winds dying down, think it may be possible to generate some MVFR BR towards sunrise. While it is in some of the models for SBN, am not as sold on it there since they didn`t get any precip this afternoon, so decided not to include it. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening for INZ003. MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening for MIZ077. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Roller SHORT TERM...AGD LONG TERM...AGD AVIATION...Roller Visit us at Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
619 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 The HRRR models indicate isolated showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon...generally across scntl Neb...east of highway 83 and along and south of highway 2. Winds aloft are weak and if this activity develops, it would be slow moving and dissipate with the loss of daytime heating early this evening. Sfc high pressure across the Cntl Rockies and surrounding plains moves south tonight and is replaced by an elongated sfc low pressure trof Monday stretching north and south across the cntl and nrn plains. The temperature forecast tonight and Monday follows a blend of guidance plus bias correction for lows in the 50s and highs in the 80s. The H700mb temperatures are a flat line near 7C and light south winds should develop tonight which would limit radiational cooling somewhat. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 High pressure ridging will remain nearly stationary from the desert southwest into the Rockies though the end of the week. This generates weak northwest flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the ridge across our area. Surface flow will mostly be south to southeast which should maintain at least mid 50s dew points through the end of the week. Afternoon heating will lead to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms just about each afternoon this week as there will be little capping aloft. The best chance continues to be Tuesday afternoon when a weak shortwave disturbance slides southeast across the region. By Saturday a large upper level low pressure system should be digging into the Pacific northwest. This will nudge the upper level ridging east over our area. With the ridge expect 700mb temperatures to rise in the mid to possibly upper teens Celsius, which will create a stout capping inversion. So the weekend looks mainly dry despite increasing humidity with the flow off a wide open Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will be near average Tuesday through Thursday, with increased cloud cover and possible rain (especially Tuesday). Then by weeks end a big warm up as the ridging aloft spreads across the central plains. Highs in at least the upper 80s seem likely next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 A cumulus cloud field aoa 7kft will dissipate this evening with skies becoming mostly clear. Winds will continue light and variable through late morning on Monday and then become south under 10kts through the afternoon. Visual flight rules. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...Taylor AVIATION...Power
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1013 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 .DISCUSSION... First period POP/wx grids were updated earlier as rain shield behind leading convective line was crossing the area while additional activity was firing up just west of the forecast area...then the worked over airmass began to grab hold of all the precip and a steady diminishing trend took over. Local 00z sounding showed a stark contrast from 12 hours earlier with hardly any CAPE/much more inhibition/minimal instability, although moisture remained very high. In the end, elected to lower POPs considerably in the initial 3 hours, then bump back up just slightly as HRRR data wants to bring offshore activity back into the area which may be a bit aggressive given the previously stated parameters...essentially split down the middle for the overnight hours. Despite the seeming lack of rainfall, no changes will be made to the inherited Flash Flood Watch given the high chances of rain tomorrow, at times potentially heavy. In addition, updates were made this evening to temps and Tds given latest obs/trends with readings across the nrn 1/2 already in the upper 60s/around 70 which is lower than inherited mins. Update already sent. 25 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017/ AVIATION... Showers and rains will continue through the evening hours as one impulse moves through south central Louisiana and the next one begins to enter southeast Texas. Most of the activity remains light to moderate rains while the second impulse does have a bit stronger activity. Storms will lower visibility and ceilings from MVFR to LIFR thru sunrise depending on activity around the TAF lctn. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017/ DISCUSSION... Current radar continues a large area of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall approaching the Acadiana region and extends southwest into the coastal waters 60 nm south of Cameron. Behind the line of thunderstorms, light to moderate rainfall with intermittent anvil lightning strikes continue for the remainder of Central and Southwestern Louisiana. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 5 to 8 inches fell over Southeast Texas and Western Louisiana associated with this large area of thunderstorms. Expect a brief break in the rainfall this evening. Another round of thunderstorms already going over C TX just west of Houston. This is likely to affect our region later this evening over SE TX, and overnight into Louisiana into Monday afternoon. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 3 to 4 inches will be possible through Monday evening. For this, continuing the Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening. Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain elevated Monday night through Tuesday as this upper level low over Texas will continue to slowly move southeast. Expect another enhanced round of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon as the cold front approaches. Once the mid/upper level trough axis moves east of the region, drier air at the surface and aloft associated with the cool front will move through the region Tuesday evening. Along with the ending of precipitation, the drier and slightly cooler air will result in rather pleasant conditions Wednesday through Friday. A warming trend back to typical temperature values expected by Saturday, with a slight chance of rainfall expected by Sunday. DML MARINE... Onshore flow will continue through Monday as a weak area of low pressure remains across Texas into the western Gulf of Mexico. A very moist air mass and weakness aloft will allow for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday. Winds and seas will be higher near the storms, along with occasional cloud to water lightning. Offshore flow is expected to develop Tuesday night into Wednesday as low pressure moves east of the area, allowing a cold front to push into the northern Gulf. DML && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 69 84 71 85 / 80 60 60 60 LCH 71 85 72 86 / 80 80 60 70 LFT 71 83 72 85 / 90 80 60 70 BPT 71 86 72 86 / 60 60 60 50 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for LAZ027>033-041>045- 052>055-073-074. TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for TXZ180-201-215-216- 259>262. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
952 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 .Forecast Update... Issued at 950 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 After coordination with WPC/OHX/PAH/JKL and with upstream new development occurring over western KY and north central TN, decided to go ahead and hoist a Flash Flood Watch for the overnight and Monday morning. That area already has seen a bit of rain today, though not quite to flash flood levels. It should have lowered our ability to take in more rain though, and with these additional heavy rains overnight, some in the area could see flash flooding. Latest several runs of the HRRR have been consistent in keeping just enough MUCAPE overnight down in that area for redevelopment to continue for much of the night. Have updated our areal average rainfall totals through this event of 1-3 inches in our southern KY counties. && .Short Term...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 302 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Now - Tonight... A look at the current PWAT gradient across our CWA tells the tale as it ranges from .8 in the NE to 1.8 in the SW. Still dealing with some pretty dry low levels across our north. Meanwhile, deeper moisture is slowly working into the area ahead of a closed upper low over the Red River Valley. We`ll be seeing an increase in shower and storm activity across central and southern KY from this point on through the evening. Will keep chances the rest of the afternoon in the scattered to numerous range across our south, with chances across southern IN and northern KY not picking up until sunset and after. As we move into the overnight, the low level jet picks up to around 20-25 knots coincident with the highest PWAT airmass around 1.8-1.9, mainly across KY. This will result in an increase in coverage of showers and storms. Meanwhile, a surface front trailing from a weak Great Lakes system and ahead of a shortwave trough dropping into the flow will squeeze toward the Ohio River Valley. Initially, there will be a limit to the northward extent of precipitation, with coverage tapering off north of I-64 however as we move deeper into the overnight, coverage should gradually fill in ahead of the features mentioned above. Heaviest rain should fall across central KY (not too far south of I-64) where the best combination of moisture convergence and available moisture will coincide. Overall, expect 1 to 1.5 inches in most spots along and south of a Beaver Dam to Lebanon to Richmond line, but cannot rule out locally higher amounts greater than 2 inches given efficient rainfall rates, slow storm movement, and a deep warm cloud layer around 12-13 K feet. Not confident that any hydro problems would be widespread enough, or may occur at all, to support issuance of a Flood Watch. Could also see a localized gusty wind threat with any collapsing storm, but think the main threats will be heavy rain and CG lightning. Lows should range in the 65 to 70 range. Monday - Monday Night... As we move past sunrise on Monday, precipitation will be ongoing across KY, with redevelopment expect across the northern CWA ahead of the approaching cold front and the driving shortwave rotating through the parent trough. Highs will struggle given the cloud cover, precipitation and passing cool front. Will go with mid to upper 70s in KY with low 80s along and and north of the Ohio River. Will just carry some Iso-Sct pops in the evening as the front finishes sweeping through, but should be dry as we move through the overnight. Lows will drop into the upper 50s and low 60s. .Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 302 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Tuesday - Thursday... Closed low will rotate near the eastern Great Lakes through mid week, with overall troughing over the Ohio River Valley. We`ll stay mostly dry and see below normal temperatures under this pattern, although will note the potential for a few showers Wednesday and Thursday as individual disturbances rotate through the parent trough axis. Tuesday highs should range in the mid to upper 70s with plenty of sunshine as a dry slot wraps into the parent system to our NE. After lows in the mid 50s on Tuesday night, expect highs only in the low to mid 70s on Wednesday as increased cloud cover occurs along with steady N surface flow. Current forecast highs are around 8-10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Highs on Thursday should recover to the mid and upper 70s as heights/thicknesses rise in response to the closed upper low beginning to exit to the NE. Thursday Night - Friday... Looking for a dry period of weather during this time as progressive shortwave ridging and surface high pressure move across the region. Most lows should range between 55 to 60 degrees Thursday night, with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s Friday. Friday Night - Saturday... A weak system will scoot across the Great Lakes Friday Night through Saturday, dragging a weak cool frontal boundary into the region. There is disagreement on the exact timing of this feature, and on how much moisture will be available, so will keep shower and storm chances low. Lows Friday night should settle in the low to mid 60s, with highs on Saturday in the low to mid 80s. Saturday Night - Sunday... Pretty high confidence in a dry and warmer end to the weekend as stronger upper ridging takes hold over much of the southern CONUS. After overnight lows in the mid 60s, look for highs in the upper 80s. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 720 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Moist air mass and a weak boundary across central Kentucky will provide the focus for showers and thunderstorms through tonight, mainly impacting the BWG terminal. Through midnight, the highest chances for visibility reductions due to tstorms will be at BWG. Ceilings are expected to lower into MVFR fuel alternate range at BWG and LEX overnight as the low levels saturate and more showers/storms spread across the region. A cold front will pass through the region in the afternoon hours, helping to scour out the low level moist air late in the day. A few showers and storms will be possible along/ahead of that boundary before it passes the terminals. Ceilings will improve toward the end of the period along with a wind shift to the north/northwest. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for KYZ061-062-070>078- 081-082. && $$ Update...RJS/ZT Short Term...BJS Long Term...BJS Aviation...ZT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
601 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 .SHORT TERM... 148 PM CDT Through Monday... Early this afternoon a cold front stretches from near MKE west- southwest across far northern Illinois to near DVN. Out ahead of the front, moderately unstable conditions are in place with RAP analysis indicating 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Satellite imagery shows a small CU field along the front in far SE WI and NE IL while the more robust CU/TCU is well ahead of the front...primarily along and south of the I-80 corridor where a few thunderstorms have already developed. Shear is very weak over the region, only 15-20kt, so an organized severe threat is not anticipated, however, a few of the stronger thunderstorms could produce localized strong and damaging winds owing to steep low level lapse rates and high DCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg. Coverage should increase some late this afternoon into the evening as the cold front drops across the CWA, though should stay widely scattered, so not all areas will see precipitation this evening. Precip chances should wind down around midnight as PBL stabilizes and convergence along the front weakens. Monday morning, shortwave trough will push across northern Illinois and northwest Indiana with surface winds turning north to northeast in its wake and cooler air spilling into the region. Anticipate frontal trough will become tied with a lake breeze with temperatures stabilizing early in the day across the northern counties, while farther south temperatures will warm into the 70s before falling back into the 60s along the lake front. Inland, expect highs from the mid 70s to low 80s. Some models try to bring in low clouds as the cooler air plows into the antecedent moist airmass. Confidence in widespread cloudiness isn`t particularly high at this time, but if it does occur, would expect to see some sunshine breaking out in the afternoon. Deubelbeiss && .LONG TERM... 213 PM CDT Monday night through Sunday... Period begins dry Monday night into Tuesday as surface high continues to slowly build south through the upper and mid Mississippi valleys. This is while large upper level low is situated across the eastern CONUS, which will remain in located here for much of the work week. Slightly below normal temps expected Tuesday with gusty northerly winds, as the CWA remains on the eastern side of this high. This surface high will finally push overhead on Wednesday, supporting continued dry conditions through mid week. Guidance showing the upper level low in the eastern CONUS finally departing further to the east, and with upstream energy possibly moving overhead Thursday into Friday. Although precip chances trying to increase during the day Thursday, large scale ascent doesn`t really increase until Thursday night and especially Friday, when at least scattered shower/thunderstorm development appears probable. Have continued chance wording for this period, but precip chances look to lower going into the weekend while warmth returns. Rodriguez && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs... Lake breeze passage early this evening is the main aviation forecast concern for this forecast period. Surface cold front has sagged off to the south of the terminals this afternoon. Weak surface pressure gradient and weakening northwest component to wind field has allowed a lake breeze to develop along the shore late this afternoon, and this boundary is expected to affect the four Chicago metro terminals shortly. Current extrapolation from 88D/TDWR imagery suggests passage at ORD and MDW prior to 0030Z...with winds expected to shift northeast with a decent 10kt+ push. Winds expected to remain northeast-east through much of the evening before becoming light/variable and eventually returning to a light west/northwest after midnight. High pressure developing north of the area early Monday is expected to result in winds quickly becoming northeast again to start the day...and should remain locked in from 020-040 through the period. Building high and cool advection should make for breezy 15-20 kts. Forecast soundings do suggest a brief period of MVFR cigs possible during the morning, though VFR conditions are expected to prevail otherwise. Ratzer && .MARINE... 213 PM CDT Weaker gradient across the northern part of the lake has allowed for persistent fog today, with observations and webcams showing this fog still in place. Don`t anticipate much improvement for the remainder of the day, but should see fog diminish later this evening into the overnight as drier air moves in along strengthening northerly winds. These increasing winds will spread down the lake tonight into Monday as high pressure pushes into the western Great Lakes. Expect these elevated winds and waves to provide hazardous conditions for small craft by early Monday, and likely continuing through Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure moving over the lake by mid week will allow winds and waves to diminish. Rodriguez && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Beach Hazards Statement...ILZ006-ILZ014...7 AM Monday to 10 PM Tuesday. IN...Beach Hazards Statement...INZ001-INZ002...1 PM Monday to 10 PM Tuesday. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744- LMZ745...7 AM Monday to 10 PM Tuesday. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
823 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 254 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017 ...Strong to severe storms possible this afternoon/early evening over portions of Central Upper Mi.... Latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a vigorous near the Ontario/MN border diving se toward the Western Great Lakes this afternoon. Fog/stratus in the wake of the shra/tstms from yesterday afternoon/last night, has lifted across much of the area as noted on visible satellite imagery with the exception of a few locations near Lake Superior. Late this afternoon...Good daytime heating under mostly sunny skies and subsequent increase in instability ahead of the shortwave dropping se from Ontario has resulted in mlcape values approaching 500j/kg range over portions of se Upper Mi in the convergence zone btwn lake breeze off Lake Superior and Lake Michigan and where these lake breezes drive against the gradient nw wind. Locally higher mlcape above 1000j/kg is indicated by most guidance into late afternoon/early evening. Meanwhile, models are also in excellent agreement showing 40-50kt of deep layer shear from late afternoon into evening, supporting the potential of well-organized convection given the instability. So, still expect the potential for strong to severe storms in the area of greatest mlcape, focused roughly in the area across southern Marquette County, Delta and Menominee Counties, possibly into Schoolcraft and eastern Dickinson counties. Outside of this area across southern Upper MI, instability will be weaker, but an isolated severe storm can`t be ruled out given strong shear fcst. Showers/storms will end over scntrl Upper mi later this evening, but low-level saturated upslope flow near Lake Superior may yield some - dz into the overnight. Temps will fall back into the low/mid 40s, except around 50F south central. Monday...Models show another shortwave dropping south from near James Bay to northern Lake Huron, but associated best moisture and best forcing (q-vector conv) will stay east of Upper Mi. Confluent flow aloft and sfc high pressure building south fm Hudson Bay will ensure dry conditions across Upper Mi. Will be a cooler day with north winds off Lake Superior and h85 thermal trough overhead. Expect inland readings mostly in the mid to upper 60s with a few low 70s south central. Temps near Lake Superior shoreline will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 220 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017 No signal for any high impact events in the long term. Not expecting much precip, with only an outside chance Thu-Fri and Sun. Did not make changes from the blended initialization as that handled things quite well. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 822 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017 A disturbance moving through the northern Great Lakes will bring some scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm to western Upper Michigan this evening. However, tsra chances are low enough to leave out mention in the TAF. Under n to ne winds tonight, areas of fog/stratus over Lake Superior should expand inland across Upper MI, resulting in IFR or LIFR conditions. Although the stratus at CMX is expected to persist winds backing to the ne will be less favorable for the lowest cigs. An influx of drier air and daytime heathing should then bring improving conditions Monday morning. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 254 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017 Overall, thru much of next week, a relatively weak pressure gradient will prevail, resulting in winds generally blo 20kt thru the fcst period. Expect areas of fog into this evening with some locally dense fog. The fog should dissipate tonight as drier air works in fm the north. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... Dense Fog Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...Voss LONG TERM...Titus AVIATION...JLB MARINE...Voss
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
855 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017 .DISCUSSION... HRRR, along with other models, are currently honing in on some locally heavy rainfall for our northern areas overnight; and latest radar trends support that idea. Doppler radar estimates that an area over northern parts of Robertson County and northwest Sumner county has received upwards of two and a half to three inches of rainfall this evening, and a Flash Flood Warning and Areal Flood Advisory are in effect for that area for the next several hours. WPC observes that a very moist atmosphere and pool of instability, feeding into our northern areas, out of western Tennessee, suggests a gradual increase in intensity and coverage of showers and storms for the remainder of the night. Following collaborating with WPC and neighboring WFOs, have decided that conditions warrant a Flash Flood Watch for areas along and north of I-40 through 15z, Monday. The watch and updated grids will be coming out shortly. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. BNA/CKV/CSV...One round of showers with embedded storms has moved through and is now north of Middle Tennessee with another area of cells moving northward through southern Middle Tennessee. HRRR suggests that more widespread activity will develop later this evening, although most of this activity will be showers with only an isolated storm or two. Showers will predominate through the overnight period and into tomorrow, with the activity ending from NW to SE during the afternoon as a surface front makes its way through the mid state. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 70 79 64 80 58 / 80 80 40 0 0 Clarksville 69 80 62 79 57 / 80 80 10 0 0 Crossville 65 74 61 74 53 / 80 80 70 10 0 Columbia 69 80 64 80 57 / 80 80 70 10 0 Lawrenceburg 69 79 64 80 57 / 80 80 70 10 0 Waverly 68 80 63 80 57 / 80 80 10 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......19 AVIATION........08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1016 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift northeastward across the region into Monday, shower and thunderstorm coverage increasing across the Mid Atlantic Region. Unsettled weather will then persist until a cold front sweeps through the region late Monday night or early Tuesday. Passage of Tuesday`s front will be followed by a cool late season cutoff low which will settle over the northern Mid-Atlantic for mid-week, temperatures retreating to the cooler side of normal. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1010 PM EDT Sunday... As advertised moisture had increased throughout the day. 00Z soundings showed precipitable water values of 1.2 inches at Blacksburg, VA and 1.4 inches at Greensboro, NC. Surface dew points across southwest Virginia and northern North Carolina have climbed into the 60s. Scattered thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening helped saturate the air mass. Have slowed down arrival of precipitation overnight. SPC HRRR and latest RAP show precipitation filling in and spreading northeast into the region after 06Z. Also added patchy fog in where there was rain Sunday afternoon. Dry high pressure will move east overnight. Behind this high pressure is southerly flow which will increase moisture from the Atlantic into the region. Another contributor of moisture is a closed low that will wobble over the southern plains through Monday. This low will bring Gulf moisture into the region. PWATS this morning were 0.59 of an inch across the mountains and 0.84 of an inch over the piedmont. Models are bringing PWATS of 1.50-2.00 inches into the area which is 150-200% above normal. This may seem aggressive considering we were so dry this morning, but Nashville`s morning sounding has PWATS of 1.72 inches and Atlanta was 1.64 inches. This air mass is heading our way. The southern plains upper low will also send short waves over the region. Each wave will help add moisture to the area. A northern stream low over the Great Lakes will send a weak cold front towards the region tonight and Monday. A surface wave is expected to form along this front tonight and track east in zonal flow. Most models are in agreement with tracking this surface low over the forecast area. However, they differ some on where the axis of heavy rain will occur. The GFS has the axis over the Greenbrier Valley to the Southern Shenadoah Valley. The NAM is slightly south from Bluefield WV to Lynchburg VA. The ECM with its course resolution, looks like a combination of the GFS and NAM. Models, especially the GFS, may be overdone on rainfall amounts due to convective feedback. Within the axis of heavy rain, north of HWY 460, up to two inch of rain possible and around an inch south into early Monday afternoon. With the lack of rain the past several days, these amounts will not cause any flood concerns as long as repeated strong storms do not train over the same area over and over again through the night. The surface low will track towards DC by early afternoon with rain becoming light or ending all together. With a humid air mass entering the area tonight, temperatures will remain on the muggy side with lows only falling into the 60s. If the rain can clear out by early Monday afternoon, temperatures may be able to warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM EDT Sunday... Deepening Great Lakes upper low will sag southward into the Mid-Atlantic Region through mid-week, stalling near the PA/MD border B4 finally lifting back north toward the end of the week. With the upper low over the region, anticipate cooler than normal temperatures with highs confined to the 60s in the mountains and 70s piedmont. Cold air aloft will also drive diurnal showers...this pattern favoring very little precip at night but enough instability during the day for widely scattered afternoon and evening showers. The mountains and northern areas will likely tend to be the more favored for showers per per orographic lift and proximity to the upper low, however due to the warm June sun, enough instability should be generated for threat to extend into the VA/NC Piedmont addition to steep enough lapse rates for an isolated rumble of thunder. Overall QPF should not be much...mainly a tenth of an inch or less, with most folks remaining dry. Coolest of the airmass is forecast to pass overhead Wednesday night into Thursday morning, 85h temps approaching 8 deg C. This will promote surface temperatures of 5 to 10 degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Sunday... The upper level Low will slowly lift northward out of the area by Friday, resulting in decreasing rain chances and a slow warming trend. A short wave will move through the Great Lakes in the wake of the upper Low Saturday as it continues to lift north and away from the area. This short wave feature may bring some showers to the area, mainly during the peak heating part of the day Saturday late afternoon. Overall, heights are rising across the eastern U.S. for the weekend resulting in a less active and much warmer weather pattern. Both the GFS and ECMWF have a 590 dm upper level ridge of High pressure over the area by Monday of next week. This suggests high temperatures will flip to the warm side of normal with highs into the 80s and 90s as we transition into Mid June. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 750 PM EDT Sunday... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms were dissipating and moving out of southwest Virginia this evening. Surface wind at KDAN will return to southwest at 5 to 19 knots for the 00Z start of the TAF forecast period. Showers will redevelop in a west to east baroclinic zone late tonight. High confidence that ceilings and visibilities will lower to MVFR as the rain develops, mainly after 06Z/2AM. Expect widespread rain through the day Monday tapering off from the northwest to southeast during the afternoon. Expect IFR or lower ceilings through much of the morning. Medium confidence of improvement to MVFR or VFR by late in the day. Extended Aviation Discussion... Monday night into Tuesday the front will be east of the area and northwest winds will be on the increase on the backside of the system. However, an upper low will persist over the region through mid week keeping rather unsettled conditions in place, especially across the mountains with variable MVFR clouds and patchy rain showers. Conditions should begin to improve overall after Wednesday with the upper low shifting east and south of the area. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 500 AM EDT Sunday... With no substantial rainfall over the area in just a little over a week now, 1-hr, 3-hr, and 6-hr flash flood guidance numbers have increased notably as compared to where they were at the point of our last substantial rainfall. Values are lowest in the north where 1- hr numbers are in the 1.25 to 1.50 inch range with 6-hr numbers around 2.00 to 2.25 inches. Across the south, 1-hr values are closer to 2.00 to 2.50 inches with 6-hr numbers in the 3.00 to 4.00 inch range. Forecast average rainfall during the bulk of the upcoming event will range from 1.0 inch to 1.50 inches, with most of this falling over a 12-hr period from roughly midnight to noon on Monday. Will need to continue to monitor the progression of how the system is developing, but at this point, confidence in flooding is not high enough to warrant a watch. Will continue to highlight the concern in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and the experimental graphical HWO. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/PM NEAR TERM...RCS SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...AMS HYDROLOGY...RAB