Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/02/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
914 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017
.UPDATE... /EXPANDED POPS EWD AFT MIDNIGHT/
While most of the afternoon meso-models show little potential for
overnight convection to move into our central counties, the HRRR has
been consistently showing more convection propagating eastward to
approach the San Antonio metro area toward daybreak. This is a common
late May/early June tendency for strong storms becoming semi-
organized and tapping into the nocturnal jet. A slight rotational
pattern is seen SE of the Big Bend area moving east at roughly 20
mph. At this speed, rain chances should remain low at the I-35
corridor. However, an upstream shortwave and some stronger winds
aloft may support some forward propagation of the leading edge. The
rest of the forecast was left alone.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017/
UPDATE...
See below for the 00z aviation update...
AVIATION...
Currently VFR at all TAF sites with scattered cumulus across the
region. CIGs are expected to lower to MVFR by late this evening and
then to IFR overnight tonight at the Interstate 35 sites before
improving to MVFR late Friday morning/early Friday afternoon and then
VFR once more by mid Friday afternoon. High-res models, such as the
Texas Tech WRF and the HRRR, suggest a complex of showers and storms
forming late this evening in the Del Rio area and moving ENE. Due to
this, have included VCSH in the DRT TAF between 5z and 9z. At this
time, it appears likely that the complex should dissipate before
impacting the Interstate 35 sites. Winds will generally be out of the
east-southeast with speeds varying from 5-10 knots.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Scattered showers and storms across the eastern CWA should diminish
around or shortly before sunset. HRRR and 4 KM TT WRF indicating
some upstream convection across the Big Bend and higher terrain of
Mexico making it into at least western Val Verde county 02Z-05Z this
evening where it will decay. HRRR slightly farther east into
Edwards, Kinney, and Maverick before dissipating. Less coverage in
storms during the day on Friday compared to previous days. Models do
indicate a mid level shortwave across West and Far West Texas sliding
east into portions of the northwest CWA Friday night. This should
allow for a better chance of showers and storms to make it east into
the Rio Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, and northern Hill Country
region tomorrow night before decaying early Saturday morning.
LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Models have been indicating a slight downtrend in POPs during the day
on Saturday between the aforementioned shortwave Friday night and
the main trough expected Sunday into Monday. The latter will develop
from North Texas southwest into the Big Bend Saturday, and eventually
slide southeast through the area Sunday into Monday. POPs do look to
increase during this time, with main focus Sunday and Sunday night
west of I-35 and Monday near and east of I-35. A few pockets of
locally heavy rainfall will also be possible during this time. A
chance of storms may linger into Tuesday across the eastern half of
the CWA as the trough as remains close. Eventually the main trough
axis slides off into the Gulf of Mexico and a backdoor front pushes
drier air into the area Tuesday night and Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 88 70 88 71 89 / 30 20 20 10 20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 87 69 87 69 88 / 30 20 20 10 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 90 70 87 70 88 / 30 20 20 10 20
Burnet Muni Airport 86 67 85 68 86 / 20 30 20 10 20
Del Rio Intl Airport 87 72 88 72 89 / 20 40 20 30 20
Georgetown Muni Airport 86 69 87 69 88 / 30 30 20 10 20
Hondo Muni Airport 88 71 88 70 89 / 20 20 20 10 20
San Marcos Muni Airport 88 70 87 70 89 / 40 20 20 10 20
La Grange - Fayette Regional 88 71 87 71 88 / 50 10 20 10 30
San Antonio Intl Airport 88 71 88 71 89 / 30 20 20 10 20
Stinson Muni Airport 90 71 88 72 88 / 30 20 20 10 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Mesoscale/Aviation...Williams
Synoptic/Grids...Oaks
Public Service/Data Collection...YB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1031 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017
This is primarily for the Sioux City media. Been perusing over
data looking for reasons to take out the small pops for northwest
IA late tonight. However the HRRR continues to show very skittish
development here and there in your area beginning around 9 or 10Z.
There is a bit of mid level moisture advecting into your area
witnessed by some scattered 6,000 to 8,000 foot clouds to your
south right now. The wind shear looks pretty unfavorable including
a low level jet which is not looking very healthy all of a sudden.
Will wait for the 00Z NAM to come out for confirmation, but you
might want to mention an isolated shower or storm very late
tonight, in the pre dawn hours. If the NAM confirms this, then I
will postpone the slight chance pops until the pre dawn hours
similar to what the HRRR has.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017
Generally looking for quiet conditions to continue through the day
Friday, with just a couple of brief periods where isolated storms
may develop over the next 24 hours.
850mb warm front, still located well south near I-80 late this
afternoon, will lift northward toward the Missouri River Valley near
or after 06Z as low level jet develops across the High Plains, then
continue northward through eastern South Dakota/southwest Minnesota
late tonight into Friday. Moisture well ahead of the front remains
very limited, as evidenced by dew points once again mixing down into
the 30s-lower 40s across northeast half of our area today. Somewhat
better near-surface moisture streaming into far western portions of
the forecast area, but forecast soundings indicate this moisture
will remain very shallow through the overnight hours. With limited
moisture, and upper level support also weak within a dominant ridge
axis, will hang on to a slight chance for storms only in northwest
Iowa after 06Z tonight, where weak warm advection in area of a
slightly better elevated instability may allow for isolated storm
development. Confidence in development is quite low, however, and
evening shift will want to monitor trends in high-res models.
Even if convection does develop tonight, should exit to our east
shortly after sunrise as the warm front continues to push through.
Attention then turns to the late afternoon, where surface warm front
may still be positioned across our far northeast areas, while cold
front remains well west of the area in western/central South Dakota.
Depending on location of the warm front, could see a few late day
storms east of the Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota. If these
storms develop, instability sufficient enough for stronger storms.
However, deep layer shear is practically non-existent, and thus any
activity would likely see pulse storms with marginal severe threat
at best. With much of the CWA in the warm sector by late afternoon,
going high temperatures hedging toward the warmer side of guidance
still looks reasonable, and made few changes to our forecast highs
in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017
Cold front across Central South Dakota tomorrow afternoon is
expected to shift east Friday night into Saturday morning. As the
front shifts to the east, convergence decreases. This along with
limited moisture make it increasingly difficult for precipitation to
spread east across the region. Where storms are able to develop,
will have strong downdraft potential with relatively dry profile and
evaporation likely with any downdraft that develops. Not expected
much in the way of wetting rain across the region, especially the
further east one gets.
Models continue to warm temperatures on Saturday under strong mixy
northwest flow. Have raised temperature into the mid and upper 80s.
Slightly cooler temperatures back into the region from the north and
east on Sunday keeping temperatures slightly cooler than Saturday
east of I-29.
The cooler air lingers across the region on Monday as high pressure
noses into the region from the north. Tuesday, southerly flow draws
mild air into the region with 850 hpa temps approaching 20C ahead of
a cold front. Once again, could see a storm or two with the frontal
passage, but with the Gulf shut down, moisture will be in short
supply.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017
VFR is anticipated through the TAF period. There still appears
that there could be some very isolated TSRA around the KSUX
vicinity from about 09Z to 12Z early Friday. However the activity
continues to look way too skittish to mention it for Sioux City at
this time. Wind wise...southerly winds could gust close to 25
knots at times Friday afternoon mainly for the KHON and KFSD
sites.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
842 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017
LATEST UPDATE...
Update/Aviation
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017
High pressure will continue to bring fair and seasonably mild
weather through Friday. A low pressure system will bring showers
and a few thunderstorms this weekend. Temperatures will continue
to average close to normal for this time of year next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017
Updated the forecast to decrease the threat of showers in the
northern counties overnight. This is based on the latest RAP model
information and a combination between radar and satellite data.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017
Primary short term fcst concerns involve determining convective
potential Saturday through Saturday night.
High pressure will continue to bring fair wx tonight through
Friday. It will be seasonably mild Friday with high temperatures
reaching the middle 70`s to near 80 degrees.
Low pressure and a warm front will combine to bring potential for
a few showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm Saturday
afternoon. However most of the morning/aftn will be dry and
seasonably mild with high temps again reaching the middle 70`s to
lower 80`s.
The relatively best chc for showers and a few thunderstorms will
come Saturday night near to ne of the northward advancing warm front
and as the sfc low moves further se to northern lwr MI by 12Z Sun.
Scattered convection is expected Saturday night with weak
instability in place and as low level moisture ramps up with dew
point values reaching near 60 degrees by 12Z Sunday.
However a consensus of 12Z short range guidance suggests
instability Saturday night will be weak with both sfc/elevated
cape values of under 1000 j/kg. 1000-850 mb moisture transport is
also modest. No severe wx is anticipated. The threat for more
robust convection will stay off to our west across WI Saturday
aftn/eve where instability is expected to be significantly
stronger.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017
Will need to monitor Sunday for possible stg/svr storms. The
combination of increasing deep layer shear and instability could
support organized convection. There are some timing differences
amongst the models as far as the mid level wave goes...which leads
to uncertainty. The high res euro is 12 to 18 hrs faster with this
wave...and would support less in the way of risk for Sunday. The
GFS is slower and does support a greater thunderstorm potential. For
now...I will maintain a risk for thunderstorms during the day on
Sunday.
The wave then evolves into a rather deep low off to the east of MI.
The northerly flow on the backside of this system will likely
support cooler than normal temperatures. If it does try to warm
up...showers and possibly a thunderstorm could develop. Impacts are
possible out on Lake MI for Monday into Tuesday.
Ridging moves in for the middle part of the week. This will support
less in the way of risk for rain and a warming trend to the
temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 842 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017
VFR conditions will prevail through Friday evening. Winds will be
light overnight and the direction should turn to the southwest at
all sites by morning as the surface ridge moves east of the area.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017
High pressure will continue to produce fair weather with minimal
wave heights of less than 2 feet through Friday. Southwest winds
will ramp up a bit late Saturday through Saturday evening when
scattered thunderstorms will pose a hazard to mariners.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017
Steadily falling stages continued to be indicated this morning along
rivers in West Michigan. Light precipitation will be possible
tonight mainly over central sections of Lower Michigan...but this
will not have an impact on river stages. Rain chances increase
across the entire area late Friday night through early Sunday as a
storm system passes overhead...but model qpf suggests that the
heavier amounts will occur outside of West Michigan. The general
one quarter to one half inch of rain that is expected locally should
not product significant impacts to area rivers.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM TLP
SYNOPSIS...Laurens
SHORT TERM...Laurens
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MWS
MARINE...Laurens
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
855 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017
Another very pleasant day across central Illinois as high pressure
continues to dominate our weather. This is the same fair weather
system that brought the chilly temperatures to our area early this
morning with a few locations dipping down into the upper 40s. The
current surface map indicates the weak area of high pressure
centered just to our north this evening and should edge slowly
off to our east by Friday morning. Surface dew points once again
mixed down into the upper 30s to lower 40s over the northern half
of the forecast area this afternoon and once again this very dry
air mass coupled with a clear sky and nearly calm wind tonight
will lead to another cool night across the area.
A southerly wind flow should start to set up on Friday as the
high shifts off to our east, but based off the latest RAP forecast
soundings, the better moisture advection will be to our west
tomorrow afternoon, and as a result, the better coverage of cloud
cover and the possibility for an afternoon shower or storm will
remain to our west as well. The current forecast has an excellent
handle on the late evening and early morning trends, and as a
result, no evening ZFP update will be needed.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017
19z/2pm surface analysis shows 1020mb high over north-central
Illinois...with a stationary frontal boundary draped from southern
Kentucky westward to Kansas. Scattered convection has developed
along the front this afternoon, but remains well S/SW of the KILX
CWA. Meanwhile north of the boundary, warm and dry conditions are
noted across central Illinois...as evidenced by dewpoints only in
the upper 30s and lower 40s. High pressure will remain in control
of the weather tonight into Friday, resulting in a continuation of
dry conditions through the period. Thanks to clear skies, light
winds, and a dry airmass...overnight low temperatures will be a few
degrees below guidance in the middle to upper 50s. High
temperatures on Friday will be a degree or two warmer than
today...generally reaching the lower to middle 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017
As high pressure shifts toward the East Coast, a warm front will
lift northward through the region by late Friday. Despite passage
of the boundary...a continued dry airmass and an overall lack of
upper dynamics will prevent precip development. Convection will be
favored further northwest along the advancing front Friday night
across portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin as a 30-35kt 850mb jet
focuses across this area. This activity will remain N/NW of central
Illinois until perhaps late Friday night into Saturday morning. Have
included slight chance PoPs north of the Peoria area accordingly.
Once the early morning convective system passes to the north,
forcing for additional thunderstorm development will remain minimal
through Saturday evening. Have therefore gone with a largely dry
forecast on Saturday with afternoon highs well into the 80s.
A cold front will approach from the northwest by Saturday night,
then will sink through central Illinois during the day Sunday. By
this point, deep-layer moisture will have improved...with NAM
precipitable water values rising to between 1.25 and 1.50. Given
the increasing moisture, good convergence along the cold front, and
at least decent upper dynamics coming into play...think showers and
thunderstorms will become more numerous late Saturday night into
Sunday when high chance PoPs are warranted.
All 12z Jun 1 models show the front sinking south of Illinois by
Sunday night: however, with a trailing upper wave passing through
the region, think slight chance PoPs still look reasonable into
Monday. After that, a pronounced upper trough will establish
itself over the Northeast CONUS...leading to northwesterly flow
across the Midwest. Canadian high pressure will provide
cooler/drier weather Tuesday through Thursday, with highs dropping
back into the upper 70s and lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017
VFR conditions are expected to hold across the area through
Friday as high pressure slowly moves away from the Midwest.
Other than a few cirrus tracking across the region, the sky
will remain mostly clear into Friday. Surface winds will
be light and variable again tonight and turn light southeast
to south on Friday with speeds of 10 kts or less.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
917 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017
.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The showers are taking longer to dissipate this evening than every
other night this week. Do expect them to begin a downward trend in
intensity from here on out though. Decided to remove the mention
of thunder for the overnight period as this precip continues to
wane, but would not be surprised if there is an isolated strike or
two before midnight. Overall, this convection is not strong
enough for thunder with the lack of diurnal heating now. Changes
to the pops were the only thing needed tonight. Widespread patchy
fog is still expected in the hours around dawn Friday. /10/
Prior discussion below:
Rest of this afternoon/tonight through Friday:
Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms to continue to develop
across the region this afternoon as increasing moisture
transport/convergence ahead of the shortwave over the ArkLaTex. With
increasing PW`s near 1.8 inches or so and 330K Theta E advecting in,
these storms have produced some heavy rainfall rates, some localized
1-2 inches an hour. The HRRR is wanting to redevelop storms along a
baroclinic zone in the I-20 corridor where some clearing of storms
has helped clear out clouds and warm slightly and better convergence
is occurring. These should progress to the east through the late
afternoon into the evening into eastern Mississippi. Due to heavy
rainfall earlier in the Delta, some potential chances for convection
and some recent heavy rainfall of nearly 2-3 inches, both in the I-
20 corridor, decided to add a limited today for heavy
rainfall/flooding in the HWO/graphics along the I-20 corridor and
west of the I-55 corridor through this evening. These are producing
some efficient rainfall and could produce some localized flash
flooding.
Expect these rain and storms to wind down after around 02-04Z.
Clouds will linger through the night, leading to slightly warmer
temperatures tonight, in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Due to
the amount of locally heavy rainfall over the area today, there
could be some areas that saturate up pretty quickly. We could also
cross over a few degrees in some areas across the region. Due to
this, expect some widespread potential for fog, some locally patchy
dense fog, overnight. Introduced this in the HWO/graphics areawide.
Expect this to start around 4am and last through mid-morning.
Friday should be more of the same as a disturbance over the central
Gulf helps advect in a continued moisture transport, with nearly
850mb 330K Theta E and 1.75 inch PWs in the area with nearly 2+ inch
PWs over the Gulf Coast. In addition, a shortwave will eject
northeast over Texas and the western Gulf & associated jet streak
and front left quadrant aloft will help increase lift/isentropic
lift over the area. This is in the wake of the large trough over the
northeast CONUS/southeast Canada and surface low/front moving
northeast off the Atlantic seaboard. Locally heavy rainfall can`t be
ruled out as well tomorrow. However, due to the heavy rainfall today
being not well confined tomorrow, going to hold off introducing in
the HWO/graphics for now. 925mb temperatures could be a degree or so
warmer tomorrow. We should warm some, if there is some clearing in
the clouds, we could warm into the low-mid 80s. Didn`t go as warm as
some guidance due to clouds/storms but still warmer than today.
Right now lapse rates are again meager/weak shear will preclude any
severe potential. /DC/
Friday night through Wednesday night:
Expect any showers/thunderstorms to dissipate for the most part
Friday evening, but a few showers could persist into the night.
Higher precipitable water of 2+ inches will surge north over the
southern portions of the area on Saturday and this could raise
concerns for locally heavy rainfall. With the surge of moisture,
expect increased coverage of showers/storms over the south
Saturday afternoon. Expect the bulk of any thunderstorm activity
to remain below severe limits Friday and Saturday with meager
lapse rates, but an isolated strong to severe storm cannot be
ruled out though, especially on Saturday. Little will change on
Sunday with PWATS of 1.8 to 2.0 inches over the bulk of the area.
Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorm will be possible over
much of the area.
The persistent pattern will continue into Monday and Monday night
and possibly Tuesday ahead of a cold front approaching from the
north. The global models bring much drier air into the area by
late behind the cold front. This will be a big change from the
persistent wet pattern we have been in. /15/EC/
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
Mostly VFR flight categories are occurring this evening with a few
sites still seeing MVFR categories thanks to lingering showers and
thunderstorms. This activity will continue to diminish through the
evening hours. Fog and stratus will once again be possible
overnight, which will lead to MVFR to IFR ceilings and vis
restrictions. These should improve after daybreak and another day
of showers and storms will occur again tomorrow. /28/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 68 85 69 85 / 25 42 17 51
Meridian 68 85 68 85 / 27 43 22 51
Vicksburg 69 85 70 86 / 29 46 20 50
Hattiesburg 67 84 69 83 / 40 52 32 64
Natchez 68 84 70 84 / 39 42 22 58
Greenville 68 85 70 86 / 15 55 21 54
Greenwood 68 85 69 86 / 22 45 16 51
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
659 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017
.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
A challenging forecast this evening, given potential for both
thunderstorms and low ceilings to affect area terminals the next
24 hours. Currently, thunderstorms are expected to continue to
develop ENE before diminishing late this evening. High- res
models indicate additional storm development across the west
overnight, with storms moving eastward across the area through
Friday morning. There is also potential for low ceilings to return
Friday morning, though this will be dependent on storms in the
area, thus have only included mention at MAF for now. SE winds
will prevail, which could become gusty/variable in the vicinity
of storms. Additional storms are possible Friday afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017/
DISCUSSION...
Current radar is showing convection increasing over the Davis
Mountains this afternoon. The HRRR model shows the area from
southeast New Mexico down into the Big Bend will have the best
rain chances tonight, diminishing to the northeast. However an
extensive cumulus field over the Permian Basin shows there is
instability present and have kept decent PoPs in at many
locations, especially for the evening and early nighttime hours.
Figuring out PoPs the next several days is certainly the biggest
forecast challenge as one trough exits to the north,
another...perhaps stronger one...will move in from northern Mexico
continuing rain chances. Unfortunately with the lack of surface
boundaries it is very difficult to know very far in advance just
where the convection will develop with models showing scattered
showers all over the area through the weekend. So we have a
situation where there is a very high confidence that precip will
develop and a very low confidence in where and when it will
develop. Thus have compromised and mostly kept strong chance PoPs
(40-50%) across our entire CWA through Sunday. Brief heavy rain
and localized flooding will be the main threat though small hail
and gusty winds will also be possible. Thought about issuing a
Flash Flood Watch but with confidence so low on the location of
heavy rain it seems overkill to issue a large watch for just a few
warnings and will hold off.
The trough will move east Monday leaving a quasistationary ridge
centered over the western U.S. and West Texas/southeastern New
Mexico in northerly flow. This will decrease rain chances but weak
impulses moving south along the front of the ridge will still
provide a chance for rain next week.
This will be a nice start to June with highs only reaching the 80s
the next several days, about 10 degrees below normal for this time
of year. Highs increase next week to near normal as rain and
clouds diminish.
Hennig
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 66 83 64 82 / 40 50 50 50
Carlsbad 62 86 62 82 / 50 40 40 40
Dryden 70 89 68 90 / 40 40 40 40
Fort Stockton 64 84 64 84 / 40 50 40 40
Guadalupe Pass 54 80 59 76 / 60 40 40 40
Hobbs 60 79 60 78 / 50 50 50 50
Marfa 55 82 55 80 / 60 40 40 50
Midland Intl Airport 64 83 64 82 / 40 50 50 50
Odessa 66 82 64 82 / 50 50 50 40
Wink 66 87 63 85 / 50 50 40 40
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
613 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017
Forecast concerns in the short term will be if/where isolated
storms can form/severe potential if storms can
form...temperatures...then next chance of showers and
thunderstorms late Friday night into Saturday evening.
The 12Z upper air maps had the upper level jet over southern IL
eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic states. The h5 ridge was located
around 100deg west with northwest flow over the Plains. There was a
very weak shortwave in the northwest flow over the area. The
pooling of h7 dewpoints was from central Nebraska into southeast
Nebraska and northern Kansas. H85 dewpoints were advertised to be
in the 10 to 15 deg C. range, however the analysis and per our OAX
sounding were only in the 4 to 8 deg range with the 10deg C plus
dewpoints in KS.
Overnight convection persisted in southern and southeast Nebraska
overnight into Kansas. While most reports were a quarter of an inch
or less...a few spots picked up 1 to 2 inches. Northwest of Steele
City in Jefferson Co. had 0.99" and to the west of us near Hastings
there was a 2.05" report. Just southeast of Western in Saline Co.
there was 0.51.
The Storm Prediction Center removed us from the marginal risk outlook
and has us in the general thunder area for the next three days.
It is June and we will have ample moisture and heating into the
80s. Surface based CAPE is 500 to 1500 j/kg...however there is
little shear. Beyond airmass thunderstorms...the forcing is
limited today and this evening and would be near a warm front that
is lifting north. the WSR-88D mosaic has a cluster of storms in
southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri. The forcing increases
with the low level jet increasing after midnight to 30-40kts over
parts of central and western Nebraska.
The latest GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows a cumulus
field and some of these may develop into isolated showers/tstorms.
Confidence is low if storms will manage to develop. The
RAP/HRRR/ESRL HRRR are all very limited in coverage...mainly
dry...so have decreased the coverage of the low pops in the
forecast and include them where the cu field is located. There has
been a weak signal over OMA by a few models at 09Z with good
moisture advection overnight and isolated activity into western
Iowa Friday a.m. with a weak shortwave in the mid tropospheric
flow. Should a weak vorticity center be in the area Friday...some
of these shower could linger along with clouds. Not as cool for
Friday morning with lows mostly 60 to 65. With the warm air in
place and south winds ahead of the cold front have highs in the
80s to lower 90s Friday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms move in Saturday and again
highs ahead of the front will top out in the mid and upper 80s.
The front stalls over the cwa...so a few storms could linger
Saturday night.
A back-door front will move into the area Sunday. With drier air
and mixing highs should still top out 85 to 90.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017
The back-door cooling does not arrive until Monday...high should
still be near normal in the 80s. Another cool front moves through
some time Tuesday night into Wednesday and should have some
scattered thunderstorms with it.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017
VFR conditions through the period. There could be isolated
thunderstorms that develop in the vicinity KOMA 08-12z, but not
confident enough to mention in the TAF just yet.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Zapotocny
LONG TERM...Zapotocny
AVIATION...DeWald