Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/02/17

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
914 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 .UPDATE... /EXPANDED POPS EWD AFT MIDNIGHT/ While most of the afternoon meso-models show little potential for overnight convection to move into our central counties, the HRRR has been consistently showing more convection propagating eastward to approach the San Antonio metro area toward daybreak. This is a common late May/early June tendency for strong storms becoming semi- organized and tapping into the nocturnal jet. A slight rotational pattern is seen SE of the Big Bend area moving east at roughly 20 mph. At this speed, rain chances should remain low at the I-35 corridor. However, an upstream shortwave and some stronger winds aloft may support some forward propagation of the leading edge. The rest of the forecast was left alone. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017/ UPDATE... See below for the 00z aviation update... AVIATION... Currently VFR at all TAF sites with scattered cumulus across the region. CIGs are expected to lower to MVFR by late this evening and then to IFR overnight tonight at the Interstate 35 sites before improving to MVFR late Friday morning/early Friday afternoon and then VFR once more by mid Friday afternoon. High-res models, such as the Texas Tech WRF and the HRRR, suggest a complex of showers and storms forming late this evening in the Del Rio area and moving ENE. Due to this, have included VCSH in the DRT TAF between 5z and 9z. At this time, it appears likely that the complex should dissipate before impacting the Interstate 35 sites. Winds will generally be out of the east-southeast with speeds varying from 5-10 knots. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)... Scattered showers and storms across the eastern CWA should diminish around or shortly before sunset. HRRR and 4 KM TT WRF indicating some upstream convection across the Big Bend and higher terrain of Mexico making it into at least western Val Verde county 02Z-05Z this evening where it will decay. HRRR slightly farther east into Edwards, Kinney, and Maverick before dissipating. Less coverage in storms during the day on Friday compared to previous days. Models do indicate a mid level shortwave across West and Far West Texas sliding east into portions of the northwest CWA Friday night. This should allow for a better chance of showers and storms to make it east into the Rio Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, and northern Hill Country region tomorrow night before decaying early Saturday morning. LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... Models have been indicating a slight downtrend in POPs during the day on Saturday between the aforementioned shortwave Friday night and the main trough expected Sunday into Monday. The latter will develop from North Texas southwest into the Big Bend Saturday, and eventually slide southeast through the area Sunday into Monday. POPs do look to increase during this time, with main focus Sunday and Sunday night west of I-35 and Monday near and east of I-35. A few pockets of locally heavy rainfall will also be possible during this time. A chance of storms may linger into Tuesday across the eastern half of the CWA as the trough as remains close. Eventually the main trough axis slides off into the Gulf of Mexico and a backdoor front pushes drier air into the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 88 70 88 71 89 / 30 20 20 10 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 87 69 87 69 88 / 30 20 20 10 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 90 70 87 70 88 / 30 20 20 10 20 Burnet Muni Airport 86 67 85 68 86 / 20 30 20 10 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 87 72 88 72 89 / 20 40 20 30 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 86 69 87 69 88 / 30 30 20 10 20 Hondo Muni Airport 88 71 88 70 89 / 20 20 20 10 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 88 70 87 70 89 / 40 20 20 10 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 88 71 87 71 88 / 50 10 20 10 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 88 71 88 71 89 / 30 20 20 10 20 Stinson Muni Airport 90 71 88 72 88 / 30 20 20 10 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Mesoscale/Aviation...Williams Synoptic/Grids...Oaks Public Service/Data Collection...YB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1031 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 842 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 This is primarily for the Sioux City media. Been perusing over data looking for reasons to take out the small pops for northwest IA late tonight. However the HRRR continues to show very skittish development here and there in your area beginning around 9 or 10Z. There is a bit of mid level moisture advecting into your area witnessed by some scattered 6,000 to 8,000 foot clouds to your south right now. The wind shear looks pretty unfavorable including a low level jet which is not looking very healthy all of a sudden. Will wait for the 00Z NAM to come out for confirmation, but you might want to mention an isolated shower or storm very late tonight, in the pre dawn hours. If the NAM confirms this, then I will postpone the slight chance pops until the pre dawn hours similar to what the HRRR has. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Generally looking for quiet conditions to continue through the day Friday, with just a couple of brief periods where isolated storms may develop over the next 24 hours. 850mb warm front, still located well south near I-80 late this afternoon, will lift northward toward the Missouri River Valley near or after 06Z as low level jet develops across the High Plains, then continue northward through eastern South Dakota/southwest Minnesota late tonight into Friday. Moisture well ahead of the front remains very limited, as evidenced by dew points once again mixing down into the 30s-lower 40s across northeast half of our area today. Somewhat better near-surface moisture streaming into far western portions of the forecast area, but forecast soundings indicate this moisture will remain very shallow through the overnight hours. With limited moisture, and upper level support also weak within a dominant ridge axis, will hang on to a slight chance for storms only in northwest Iowa after 06Z tonight, where weak warm advection in area of a slightly better elevated instability may allow for isolated storm development. Confidence in development is quite low, however, and evening shift will want to monitor trends in high-res models. Even if convection does develop tonight, should exit to our east shortly after sunrise as the warm front continues to push through. Attention then turns to the late afternoon, where surface warm front may still be positioned across our far northeast areas, while cold front remains well west of the area in western/central South Dakota. Depending on location of the warm front, could see a few late day storms east of the Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota. If these storms develop, instability sufficient enough for stronger storms. However, deep layer shear is practically non-existent, and thus any activity would likely see pulse storms with marginal severe threat at best. With much of the CWA in the warm sector by late afternoon, going high temperatures hedging toward the warmer side of guidance still looks reasonable, and made few changes to our forecast highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Cold front across Central South Dakota tomorrow afternoon is expected to shift east Friday night into Saturday morning. As the front shifts to the east, convergence decreases. This along with limited moisture make it increasingly difficult for precipitation to spread east across the region. Where storms are able to develop, will have strong downdraft potential with relatively dry profile and evaporation likely with any downdraft that develops. Not expected much in the way of wetting rain across the region, especially the further east one gets. Models continue to warm temperatures on Saturday under strong mixy northwest flow. Have raised temperature into the mid and upper 80s. Slightly cooler temperatures back into the region from the north and east on Sunday keeping temperatures slightly cooler than Saturday east of I-29. The cooler air lingers across the region on Monday as high pressure noses into the region from the north. Tuesday, southerly flow draws mild air into the region with 850 hpa temps approaching 20C ahead of a cold front. Once again, could see a storm or two with the frontal passage, but with the Gulf shut down, moisture will be in short supply. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1028 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 VFR is anticipated through the TAF period. There still appears that there could be some very isolated TSRA around the KSUX vicinity from about 09Z to 12Z early Friday. However the activity continues to look way too skittish to mention it for Sioux City at this time. Wind wise...southerly winds could gust close to 25 knots at times Friday afternoon mainly for the KHON and KFSD sites. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...MJ SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...BT AVIATION...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
842 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 LATEST UPDATE... Update/Aviation .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 High pressure will continue to bring fair and seasonably mild weather through Friday. A low pressure system will bring showers and a few thunderstorms this weekend. Temperatures will continue to average close to normal for this time of year next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 842 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Updated the forecast to decrease the threat of showers in the northern counties overnight. This is based on the latest RAP model information and a combination between radar and satellite data. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Primary short term fcst concerns involve determining convective potential Saturday through Saturday night. High pressure will continue to bring fair wx tonight through Friday. It will be seasonably mild Friday with high temperatures reaching the middle 70`s to near 80 degrees. Low pressure and a warm front will combine to bring potential for a few showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm Saturday afternoon. However most of the morning/aftn will be dry and seasonably mild with high temps again reaching the middle 70`s to lower 80`s. The relatively best chc for showers and a few thunderstorms will come Saturday night near to ne of the northward advancing warm front and as the sfc low moves further se to northern lwr MI by 12Z Sun. Scattered convection is expected Saturday night with weak instability in place and as low level moisture ramps up with dew point values reaching near 60 degrees by 12Z Sunday. However a consensus of 12Z short range guidance suggests instability Saturday night will be weak with both sfc/elevated cape values of under 1000 j/kg. 1000-850 mb moisture transport is also modest. No severe wx is anticipated. The threat for more robust convection will stay off to our west across WI Saturday aftn/eve where instability is expected to be significantly stronger. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Will need to monitor Sunday for possible stg/svr storms. The combination of increasing deep layer shear and instability could support organized convection. There are some timing differences amongst the models as far as the mid level wave goes...which leads to uncertainty. The high res euro is 12 to 18 hrs faster with this wave...and would support less in the way of risk for Sunday. The GFS is slower and does support a greater thunderstorm potential. For now...I will maintain a risk for thunderstorms during the day on Sunday. The wave then evolves into a rather deep low off to the east of MI. The northerly flow on the backside of this system will likely support cooler than normal temperatures. If it does try to warm up...showers and possibly a thunderstorm could develop. Impacts are possible out on Lake MI for Monday into Tuesday. Ridging moves in for the middle part of the week. This will support less in the way of risk for rain and a warming trend to the temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 842 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 VFR conditions will prevail through Friday evening. Winds will be light overnight and the direction should turn to the southwest at all sites by morning as the surface ridge moves east of the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 High pressure will continue to produce fair weather with minimal wave heights of less than 2 feet through Friday. Southwest winds will ramp up a bit late Saturday through Saturday evening when scattered thunderstorms will pose a hazard to mariners. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Steadily falling stages continued to be indicated this morning along rivers in West Michigan. Light precipitation will be possible tonight mainly over central sections of Lower Michigan...but this will not have an impact on river stages. Rain chances increase across the entire area late Friday night through early Sunday as a storm system passes overhead...but model qpf suggests that the heavier amounts will occur outside of West Michigan. The general one quarter to one half inch of rain that is expected locally should not product significant impacts to area rivers. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...WDM TLP SYNOPSIS...Laurens SHORT TERM...Laurens LONG TERM...MJS AVIATION...WDM HYDROLOGY...MWS MARINE...Laurens
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
855 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 845 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Another very pleasant day across central Illinois as high pressure continues to dominate our weather. This is the same fair weather system that brought the chilly temperatures to our area early this morning with a few locations dipping down into the upper 40s. The current surface map indicates the weak area of high pressure centered just to our north this evening and should edge slowly off to our east by Friday morning. Surface dew points once again mixed down into the upper 30s to lower 40s over the northern half of the forecast area this afternoon and once again this very dry air mass coupled with a clear sky and nearly calm wind tonight will lead to another cool night across the area. A southerly wind flow should start to set up on Friday as the high shifts off to our east, but based off the latest RAP forecast soundings, the better moisture advection will be to our west tomorrow afternoon, and as a result, the better coverage of cloud cover and the possibility for an afternoon shower or storm will remain to our west as well. The current forecast has an excellent handle on the late evening and early morning trends, and as a result, no evening ZFP update will be needed. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 19z/2pm surface analysis shows 1020mb high over north-central Illinois...with a stationary frontal boundary draped from southern Kentucky westward to Kansas. Scattered convection has developed along the front this afternoon, but remains well S/SW of the KILX CWA. Meanwhile north of the boundary, warm and dry conditions are noted across central evidenced by dewpoints only in the upper 30s and lower 40s. High pressure will remain in control of the weather tonight into Friday, resulting in a continuation of dry conditions through the period. Thanks to clear skies, light winds, and a dry airmass...overnight low temperatures will be a few degrees below guidance in the middle to upper 50s. High temperatures on Friday will be a degree or two warmer than today...generally reaching the lower to middle 80s. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 As high pressure shifts toward the East Coast, a warm front will lift northward through the region by late Friday. Despite passage of the boundary...a continued dry airmass and an overall lack of upper dynamics will prevent precip development. Convection will be favored further northwest along the advancing front Friday night across portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin as a 30-35kt 850mb jet focuses across this area. This activity will remain N/NW of central Illinois until perhaps late Friday night into Saturday morning. Have included slight chance PoPs north of the Peoria area accordingly. Once the early morning convective system passes to the north, forcing for additional thunderstorm development will remain minimal through Saturday evening. Have therefore gone with a largely dry forecast on Saturday with afternoon highs well into the 80s. A cold front will approach from the northwest by Saturday night, then will sink through central Illinois during the day Sunday. By this point, deep-layer moisture will have improved...with NAM precipitable water values rising to between 1.25 and 1.50. Given the increasing moisture, good convergence along the cold front, and at least decent upper dynamics coming into play...think showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous late Saturday night into Sunday when high chance PoPs are warranted. All 12z Jun 1 models show the front sinking south of Illinois by Sunday night: however, with a trailing upper wave passing through the region, think slight chance PoPs still look reasonable into Monday. After that, a pronounced upper trough will establish itself over the Northeast CONUS...leading to northwesterly flow across the Midwest. Canadian high pressure will provide cooler/drier weather Tuesday through Thursday, with highs dropping back into the upper 70s and lower 80s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 VFR conditions are expected to hold across the area through Friday as high pressure slowly moves away from the Midwest. Other than a few cirrus tracking across the region, the sky will remain mostly clear into Friday. Surface winds will be light and variable again tonight and turn light southeast to south on Friday with speeds of 10 kts or less. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Smith SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
917 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 .UPDATE... Updated for evening discussion. && .DISCUSSION... The showers are taking longer to dissipate this evening than every other night this week. Do expect them to begin a downward trend in intensity from here on out though. Decided to remove the mention of thunder for the overnight period as this precip continues to wane, but would not be surprised if there is an isolated strike or two before midnight. Overall, this convection is not strong enough for thunder with the lack of diurnal heating now. Changes to the pops were the only thing needed tonight. Widespread patchy fog is still expected in the hours around dawn Friday. /10/ Prior discussion below: Rest of this afternoon/tonight through Friday: Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms to continue to develop across the region this afternoon as increasing moisture transport/convergence ahead of the shortwave over the ArkLaTex. With increasing PW`s near 1.8 inches or so and 330K Theta E advecting in, these storms have produced some heavy rainfall rates, some localized 1-2 inches an hour. The HRRR is wanting to redevelop storms along a baroclinic zone in the I-20 corridor where some clearing of storms has helped clear out clouds and warm slightly and better convergence is occurring. These should progress to the east through the late afternoon into the evening into eastern Mississippi. Due to heavy rainfall earlier in the Delta, some potential chances for convection and some recent heavy rainfall of nearly 2-3 inches, both in the I- 20 corridor, decided to add a limited today for heavy rainfall/flooding in the HWO/graphics along the I-20 corridor and west of the I-55 corridor through this evening. These are producing some efficient rainfall and could produce some localized flash flooding. Expect these rain and storms to wind down after around 02-04Z. Clouds will linger through the night, leading to slightly warmer temperatures tonight, in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Due to the amount of locally heavy rainfall over the area today, there could be some areas that saturate up pretty quickly. We could also cross over a few degrees in some areas across the region. Due to this, expect some widespread potential for fog, some locally patchy dense fog, overnight. Introduced this in the HWO/graphics areawide. Expect this to start around 4am and last through mid-morning. Friday should be more of the same as a disturbance over the central Gulf helps advect in a continued moisture transport, with nearly 850mb 330K Theta E and 1.75 inch PWs in the area with nearly 2+ inch PWs over the Gulf Coast. In addition, a shortwave will eject northeast over Texas and the western Gulf & associated jet streak and front left quadrant aloft will help increase lift/isentropic lift over the area. This is in the wake of the large trough over the northeast CONUS/southeast Canada and surface low/front moving northeast off the Atlantic seaboard. Locally heavy rainfall can`t be ruled out as well tomorrow. However, due to the heavy rainfall today being not well confined tomorrow, going to hold off introducing in the HWO/graphics for now. 925mb temperatures could be a degree or so warmer tomorrow. We should warm some, if there is some clearing in the clouds, we could warm into the low-mid 80s. Didn`t go as warm as some guidance due to clouds/storms but still warmer than today. Right now lapse rates are again meager/weak shear will preclude any severe potential. /DC/ Friday night through Wednesday night: Expect any showers/thunderstorms to dissipate for the most part Friday evening, but a few showers could persist into the night. Higher precipitable water of 2+ inches will surge north over the southern portions of the area on Saturday and this could raise concerns for locally heavy rainfall. With the surge of moisture, expect increased coverage of showers/storms over the south Saturday afternoon. Expect the bulk of any thunderstorm activity to remain below severe limits Friday and Saturday with meager lapse rates, but an isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out though, especially on Saturday. Little will change on Sunday with PWATS of 1.8 to 2.0 inches over the bulk of the area. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorm will be possible over much of the area. The persistent pattern will continue into Monday and Monday night and possibly Tuesday ahead of a cold front approaching from the north. The global models bring much drier air into the area by late behind the cold front. This will be a big change from the persistent wet pattern we have been in. /15/EC/ && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF discussion: Mostly VFR flight categories are occurring this evening with a few sites still seeing MVFR categories thanks to lingering showers and thunderstorms. This activity will continue to diminish through the evening hours. Fog and stratus will once again be possible overnight, which will lead to MVFR to IFR ceilings and vis restrictions. These should improve after daybreak and another day of showers and storms will occur again tomorrow. /28/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 68 85 69 85 / 25 42 17 51 Meridian 68 85 68 85 / 27 43 22 51 Vicksburg 69 85 70 86 / 29 46 20 50 Hattiesburg 67 84 69 83 / 40 52 32 64 Natchez 68 84 70 84 / 39 42 22 58 Greenville 68 85 70 86 / 15 55 21 54 Greenwood 68 85 69 86 / 22 45 16 51 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
659 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 .DISCUSSION... Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... A challenging forecast this evening, given potential for both thunderstorms and low ceilings to affect area terminals the next 24 hours. Currently, thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop ENE before diminishing late this evening. High- res models indicate additional storm development across the west overnight, with storms moving eastward across the area through Friday morning. There is also potential for low ceilings to return Friday morning, though this will be dependent on storms in the area, thus have only included mention at MAF for now. SE winds will prevail, which could become gusty/variable in the vicinity of storms. Additional storms are possible Friday afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017/ DISCUSSION... Current radar is showing convection increasing over the Davis Mountains this afternoon. The HRRR model shows the area from southeast New Mexico down into the Big Bend will have the best rain chances tonight, diminishing to the northeast. However an extensive cumulus field over the Permian Basin shows there is instability present and have kept decent PoPs in at many locations, especially for the evening and early nighttime hours. Figuring out PoPs the next several days is certainly the biggest forecast challenge as one trough exits to the north, another...perhaps stronger one...will move in from northern Mexico continuing rain chances. Unfortunately with the lack of surface boundaries it is very difficult to know very far in advance just where the convection will develop with models showing scattered showers all over the area through the weekend. So we have a situation where there is a very high confidence that precip will develop and a very low confidence in where and when it will develop. Thus have compromised and mostly kept strong chance PoPs (40-50%) across our entire CWA through Sunday. Brief heavy rain and localized flooding will be the main threat though small hail and gusty winds will also be possible. Thought about issuing a Flash Flood Watch but with confidence so low on the location of heavy rain it seems overkill to issue a large watch for just a few warnings and will hold off. The trough will move east Monday leaving a quasistationary ridge centered over the western U.S. and West Texas/southeastern New Mexico in northerly flow. This will decrease rain chances but weak impulses moving south along the front of the ridge will still provide a chance for rain next week. This will be a nice start to June with highs only reaching the 80s the next several days, about 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Highs increase next week to near normal as rain and clouds diminish. Hennig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 66 83 64 82 / 40 50 50 50 Carlsbad 62 86 62 82 / 50 40 40 40 Dryden 70 89 68 90 / 40 40 40 40 Fort Stockton 64 84 64 84 / 40 50 40 40 Guadalupe Pass 54 80 59 76 / 60 40 40 40 Hobbs 60 79 60 78 / 50 50 50 50 Marfa 55 82 55 80 / 60 40 40 50 Midland Intl Airport 64 83 64 82 / 40 50 50 50 Odessa 66 82 64 82 / 50 50 50 40 Wink 66 87 63 85 / 50 50 40 40 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
613 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 Forecast concerns in the short term will be if/where isolated storms can form/severe potential if storms can form...temperatures...then next chance of showers and thunderstorms late Friday night into Saturday evening. The 12Z upper air maps had the upper level jet over southern IL eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic states. The h5 ridge was located around 100deg west with northwest flow over the Plains. There was a very weak shortwave in the northwest flow over the area. The pooling of h7 dewpoints was from central Nebraska into southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas. H85 dewpoints were advertised to be in the 10 to 15 deg C. range, however the analysis and per our OAX sounding were only in the 4 to 8 deg range with the 10deg C plus dewpoints in KS. Overnight convection persisted in southern and southeast Nebraska overnight into Kansas. While most reports were a quarter of an inch or less...a few spots picked up 1 to 2 inches. Northwest of Steele City in Jefferson Co. had 0.99" and to the west of us near Hastings there was a 2.05" report. Just southeast of Western in Saline Co. there was 0.51. The Storm Prediction Center removed us from the marginal risk outlook and has us in the general thunder area for the next three days. It is June and we will have ample moisture and heating into the 80s. Surface based CAPE is 500 to 1500 j/kg...however there is little shear. Beyond airmass thunderstorms...the forcing is limited today and this evening and would be near a warm front that is lifting north. the WSR-88D mosaic has a cluster of storms in southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri. The forcing increases with the low level jet increasing after midnight to 30-40kts over parts of central and western Nebraska. The latest GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows a cumulus field and some of these may develop into isolated showers/tstorms. Confidence is low if storms will manage to develop. The RAP/HRRR/ESRL HRRR are all very limited in coverage...mainly have decreased the coverage of the low pops in the forecast and include them where the cu field is located. There has been a weak signal over OMA by a few models at 09Z with good moisture advection overnight and isolated activity into western Iowa Friday a.m. with a weak shortwave in the mid tropospheric flow. Should a weak vorticity center be in the area Friday...some of these shower could linger along with clouds. Not as cool for Friday morning with lows mostly 60 to 65. With the warm air in place and south winds ahead of the cold front have highs in the 80s to lower 90s Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms move in Saturday and again highs ahead of the front will top out in the mid and upper 80s. The front stalls over the a few storms could linger Saturday night. A back-door front will move into the area Sunday. With drier air and mixing highs should still top out 85 to 90. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 The back-door cooling does not arrive until Monday...high should still be near normal in the 80s. Another cool front moves through some time Tuesday night into Wednesday and should have some scattered thunderstorms with it. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 VFR conditions through the period. There could be isolated thunderstorms that develop in the vicinity KOMA 08-12z, but not confident enough to mention in the TAF just yet. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Zapotocny LONG TERM...Zapotocny AVIATION...DeWald