Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/30/17

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service State College PA

 1110 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front over eastern PA will weaken and dissipate
overnight. Another cold front will push toward the region
Tuesday. Low pressure at the surface and aloft will stay
centered near James Bay Canada through the rest of the week
providing a period of slightly cooler than normal temperatures
along with several chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10PM update...

The meso anal shows the a weak front remaining stalled over my
eastern zones extending from just west of IPT south to around
Camp David MD. The low clouds and cooler marine air remain
entrenched over the eastern zones. The HRRR suggests this
boundary could even slide a bit to the west over the next few
hours before washing out altogether in the strengthening SW
flow after midnight.

Upstream convection embedded in the broad cyclonic flow aloft
could sneak a few showers/isolated thunderstorms into my western
and northern zones overnight, but the majority of the region
will remain dry and mild. Lows will average about 5-10 deg above
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Brief ridging will allow any popcorn sprinkles and light showers
to clear over the western two-thirds of the CWA this evening,
and residual moisture may lead to areas of fog, especially in
the central valleys. The low level moisture and low stratus deck
AOB 1000 ft AGL will push gradually westward across the Central
Mtns and West Br Susq Valley and stay intact through early
Tuesday. Mins tonight will dip into the 50s for most, as the
dewpoints will be the bottom limit.

A separate, weak sfc trough will be pushed into the area from
the northwest tonight. 8H temps fall a bit over the NW. Heights
fall just a little, too, so some precip is possible before
sunrise Tuesday over the northwestern third of the area, but it
should be light.

The trough begins to catch the stalled trough over the eastern
counties. The southerly or southeasterly wind will yield good
convergence and will crank up some showers and thunderstorms.
Have painted high POPs for the area, but the amount/severity of
destabilization is in question with the clouds in the NE early
in the day. NAM cranks out 1500joules of CAPE and LI drops to -2
or so in the mid-day and aftn on Tues. SPC marginal Risk of svr
wx for Day 2 (Tues) is painted across our eastern half, focused
on the peak heating time. Will continue to mention this in the
HWO.

Max temps across the region will range through the 70s, with the
warmest readings once again in the scent mtns where 78-80F
readings should occur.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term period begins with a good consensus on the
location and shape of the large upper level low over southern
Canada. That low will dominate the weather pattern this week
into next. As the low rotates it will bring successive short and
long wave troughs through the Mid Atlantic region. These
troughs will bring the possibility of precipitation, mainly
Wednesday and Friday afternoon. This upper level low will also
bring cooler northwesterly flow into central PA. That flow
should keep temperatures around, to slightly below, normal.

The next chance for significant precipitation will be Friday night
into Saturday as that upper level low progresses eastward. The
models begin to diverge on the position, timing and strength of
the system. This decreases confidence. However, all models show
a boundary that should set up through the keystone state. The
main question is when will it progress through and how much
moisture will be available for QPF when the corresponding cold
front moves through Saturday.

Current GFS brings precipitation through Saturday where the EC
brings largest QPF Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Some minor adjustments to 03Z TAFS.

Activity to the southeast is south of our area, and showers
to the west are weakening. Left shower out of BFD, that area
north of PA now.

For 00Z TAF package, did add brief tempo group for fog
at UNV, AOO, and BFD, given wet ground. I did not make it
too long, given short nights.

Far eastern areas will likely see MVFR and IFR conditions
tonight into Tuesday, given easterly flow.

For Tuesday, expect most of the area to be VFR. For now,
went with VCSH instead of any significant time or point
with showers and storms. Dewpoints not real high, much
lower than yesterday, and low level flow not real strong,
hard to see much in the way of widespread storms with low
CIGS etc.

Best chance for a dry day will be Thursday.

.OUTLOOK...

Wed...Chance of showers.

Thu...No sig wx expected.

Fri...Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Sat...Still a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Ceru/Martin
AVIATION...Martin




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Cheyenne WY

 411 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017

Latest water vapor imagery shows a stalled out upper low over the
Great Lakes area. Ridge of high pressure extends from northern
Arizona, through Nevada, up into Idaho and eventually up into
British Columbia this afternoon. CWFA under northerly flow on the
east side of this ridge. Surface analysis showing a weak cold
front extending out of the Great Lakes low extending southwestward
into northern Kansas and eventually into the western nebraska
Panhandle. IR imagery showing some cooling cloud tops this
afternoon over the Laramie Range. Radar showing most of the
convection south of WYoming with cell movement towards the south
southeast at 30-35MPH. Did get a few spits of rain outside a few
minutes ago here at the office, so will continue the low chance
PoPs we have going for this afternoon.

Latest SPC Mesoanalyst Page showing around 500 J/KG of CAPE in the
vicinity of these showers. May not see much today with a
temperature of 58 here at Cheyenne. Latest HRRR guidance shows
best chances for showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm late
afternoon in the 21-00Z timeframe. After loss of daytime heating,
these showers really die out.

We stay in this pattern as upper low over the Great Lakes barely
moves through Tuesday. So I have to say more of the same tomorrow.
Upper ridge finally moves overhead for Wednesday. At the same
time, we start to see low level southeasterly flow returning east
of the Laramie Range that could aid in afternoon convection.
Followed latest ECMWF guidance that shows a scattered coverage of
showers Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017

Thursday...Looks like the warmest day of the week to start off the
month of June, as a transitory ridge aloft prevails over our
counties. Models indicate enough low and mid level moisture to spark
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon
along and west of Interstate 25, with dry weather further east.

Friday...Slow moving trough aloft moves over our counties and with a
surface low expected to develop somewhere over our central or
eastern counties adding to low level convergence, we expect at least
isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms, most numerous along and east of Interstate 25.

Saturday...Weak troughiness aloft prevails and with low level winds
from the east and southeast, drawing in low level moisture, expect
to see at least isolated afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. Slightly Thursday...Looks like the warmest day of
the week to start off the month of June, as a transitory ridge
aloft prevails over our counties. Models indicate enough low and
mid level moisture to spark isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon along and west of Interstate 25,
with dry weather further east.

Sunday...Looks slightly drier as the ridge aloft becomes somewhat
more pronounced, limiting instability. Still looks like enough low
and mid level moisture for isolated afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms near the higher terrain and mountains due to
differential heating.

Monday...GFS shows the next potent trough aloft moving into Idaho
with diffluent flow aloft over our counties, aiding in lift to
produce isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms
along and east of Interstate 25. Likely quite breezy with moderate
surface pressure gradients suggesting decent low level moisture
return from the south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 409 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017

Wyoming TAFS...VFR, with isolated showers and thunderstorms at
Cheyenne and Laramie through 01Z.

Nebraska TAFS...VFR. Gusts up to 24 knots at Scottsbluff through
01Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017

Recent rain and ongoing greenup will preclude any fire weather
concerns this upcoming week. Have a cold front along the east
slopes of the Laramie Range this afternoon that will continue to
kick off showers and thunderstorms over the mountains and adjacent
valleys. Slow warming trend through the week as a ridge of high
pressure builds into the area from the west and forces the weak
cold front east. Afternoon humidities look to stay above critical
levels each day with fair to good overnight recoveries.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GCC




Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Lubbock TX

 627 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. Any
showers or storms will remain well north and west of the TAF sites
even though some remnant clouds will move over the terminals.

Jordan

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Agitated CU field evident in visible satellite in higher terrain
of eastern New Mexico and southern Texas Panhandle appears to be a
little ahead of schedule than depicted by short term guidance
time line. Both HRRR and RAP dewpoints have generally been a
couple degrees off on the drier side than obs have indicated while
the weak upslope surface flow is doing its part as advertised.
Any convective activity should quickly decline diurnally.

Steady south-southeast surface flow will continue through midweek
helping to gradually build higher dewpoints across our area and
into eastern New Mexico. Weak upper level trough slowly digging
SSE out of southern California into western Mexico will result in
best surface pressure falls in southern New Mexico southward
tomorrow afternoon through early Wednesday though some showers and
general thunderstorms could wander into our western zones
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.

By midday Wednesday the trough over southern Arizona begins to
shift north and east toward our latitude providing to enough lift
and instability for more widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday. Anemic lapse
rates and weak flow aloft should keep storms below severe levels
in our forecast area though the potential exists just our south
but even then chances for severe are low. As shower and
thunderstorm chances continue into Thursday, embedded shortwave
energy aloft, increased surface heating and a weak dryline should
result in increased probability of stronger to marginally severe
storms especially east of the I27 corridor in the South Plains
into the Rolling Plains. Upper level flow will still be a limiting
factor though 30kt flow in in the southern jet encroaching our
southern counties could provide enough lift and ventilation across
our southern tier. Friday another dryline develops and could bring
another rough of showers and isolated strong thunderstorms if it
doesn`t surge too far east before a pronounced upper level
shortwave later Friday evening. Long term guidance does suggest
continued low end POPS through the weekend depending how slow or
progressive the shortwave troughing develops in vicinity of a
building ridge to our west. Temperatures will be at or below
seasonal normals with the exception of Friday as highs build into
the low 90s for most of our area as more westerly component in
surface winds behind the dryline warms us slightly.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Pueblo CO

 345 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017

Currently...

Showers and thunderstorms have developed along and just east of the
s mtns at 2 pm. Most of the activity attm was just east of Pikes
Peak and se of the Spanish Peaks. Small hail has been observed with
some of the storms and MMRS was indicating hail up to 1 inch in the
strongest storms. Over the plains SBCAPE ranged from 500 to 1000
J/KG with a few pockets of higher amounts. Shear was about 25knts.
SPC has added areas into marginal risk.

Rest of today into tonight...

HRRR has been pretty accurate so far. TSRA has developed over the
Pikes Peak region and expect it to increase in coverage as it moves
ESE across the plains the rest of this afternoon. Some gusty winds
and hail will be possible, with some marginally svr hail pssbl per
latest SPC MCD. One thing of note is the guidance has been pretty
consistent on showing another round of some convection coming off
the mtns later this afternoon, along with convection developing over
the plains. Likewise, expect a busy late afternoon and evening over
the plains with respect to convection. With the marginal CAPE values
and some shear, a few of the storms will be strong with a marginally
svr storm or two possible.

Convection will last into the late evening, but expect the brunt of
it to be over with by midnight.

Little  if any precip will occur west of the southern mtns.

Tuesday...

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are likely. cyclonic NW
flow will continue aloft with weak usplope flow. LLVL moisture will
linger and we will once again see CAPE values similar to today along
with modest shear. Storms will develop over the mtns early in the
afternoon and move slowly southeast during the latter afternoon time
period. A few of the storms will be strong with one or two
marginally svr cells possible.

max temps should be 1-2F warmer than today with highs around 80 on
the plains and 70s valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017

Relatively active conditions are anticipated during the longer
term with primary meteorological issues temperatures, pops/qpf,
winds, and the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms as
well as locally heavy rainfall at times.

Longer range forecast model soundings, PV analysis and computer
simulations indicate varying degrees of upper ridging will prevail
over the forecast district from Tuesday night into Thursday night
in advance of an upper trough moving across the region from Friday
into Saturday with upper ridging redeveloping over southern
Colorado from Saturday night into next Monday.

The combination of upper disturbances interacting with north-northeasterly
surface surges and surface boundaries over southern Colorado will
allow isolated to scattered primarily afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms each day of the longer term.

At this time, it appears that the highest potential of more
widespread precipitation activity over the forecast district
during the longer term should be noted Tuesday evening and then
from later Friday into the weekend, while the highest potential
for more widespread stronger to severe thunderstorms(generally favoring
eastern sections) should be experienced from Friday afternoon
into Friday night and then again from Sunday afternoon into Monday
night(with the Monday afternoon into the Monday night storms
being the most aggressive at this time).

Overall, late May to early June minimum and maximum temperatures
are expected to run near climatological averages during the longer
term in combination with generally low-grade gradient winds.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017

Thunderstorms will be possible at KCOS and KPUB both this afternoon
and Tuesday afternoon. These storms could bring brief MVFR
conditions to the TAF sites along with gusty NW winds. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions at KCOS and KPUB.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Reno NV

 853 PM PDT Mon May 29 2017

.UPDATE...

The few cells that developed on our side of the Sierra late this
afternoon have dissipated with lack of daytime heating and no
mid/upper level support. Monday`s development followed the pattern
of the previous few days with convection developing west and
(today...at least) east of the crest over bare ground areas as
opposed to near the crest where the snow cover is apparently
keeping the boundary layer more stable. Will update the sky cover
for the rest of tonight and update the public forecasts to take
out mention of showers and thunderstorms.

Latest model guidance is not very robust with convective
development for Tuesday. However...given early afternoon
southerly flow in the mid levels...we are still expecting some
development for parts Mono County north into far western Nevada.
Models are still quite warm for Tuesday so low level instability
should be there east of the Sierra. Add to that organized westerly
flow in the low levels by late in the day and we could see a few
thunderstorms as far north as the Pine Nut Mountains and the
Virginia Range.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 320 PM PDT Mon May 29 2017/

SYNOPSIS...

Above average temperatures will persist through Tuesday with
continued spring Sierra snowmelt leading to cold and swift flows
near creeks and rivers. There will be a low chance for thunderstorms
near the Sierra this afternoon, and south of Highway 50 Tuesday.
A weak low will bring a cool down Wednesday with a few showers
possible. Warmer and drier weather returns for late week.

SHORT TERM...

Added isolated showers and thunderstorms to some areas south of
Highway 50 and the Virginia Range (east of Reno) for Tuesday,
otherwise only minor changes to temperatures to insure a reasonable
day-to-day trend for the next few days.

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have
developed on the west slopes of the Sierra near the snow line and
north of Portola, with timing earlier and coverage greater than
yesterday. The earlier convection and greater coverage may be
partly due to a slight enhancement of upper lift/divergence ahead
of an incoming upper wave near the northern CA coast. Northeast
California/Sierra storms today should remain modest, with occasional
lightning strikes, wind gusts to 35 mph, and brief light to moderate
rain.

Sierra/northeast CA convective development is likely to fall off
quickly around sunset as it appears highly dependent on the daytime
heating (modest upper forcing). As we go into late afternoon and
early evening, the HRRR also shows a few cells trying to develop
out into western NV south of Highway 50 and west of Highway 95.
With a very dry sub-cloud layer out in the Basin, any cumulus
that manage to build up to moderate depth are unlikely to produce
measurable surface rain, especially given the expected weakness of
convective development.

Tuesday, isolated showers and thunderstorms were added to some areas
south of Highway 50 across Mono County and out into far western NV.
This is due to more of a southerly flow aloft with slower scouring
of instability in those areas compared to previous simulations.
Also, low level forcing looks better in far western NV compared with
today with a zephyr-like flow in the afternoon to aid convergence.

Wednesday, a trough axis will swing through northeast CA and western
NV. That disturbance is expected to have deeper moisture with which
to work. However, instability is very poor in simulations and there
will be some drier air in the low levels to overcome. Therefore,
while it looks like at least scattered showers in northeast CA closer
to the upper disturbance, western NV and the Sierra from around Tahoe
south may have difficulty getting more than a few brief showers
and/or virga. In any case, it will be considerably cooler with highs
around average on Wednesday. Snyder

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...

Thursday through Saturday, moderate ridging aloft is expected to
build over the region with highs returning to well above average
by Saturday. On Sunday, simulations are still arguing a bit with
an upper low moving into the Northwest CONUS. The question is
whether the low will dig farther south into Oregon or remain mainly
over Washington. It is currently mainly a temperature and wind
forecast, with high temperature variations between the lower 80s
and lower 90s for western NV valleys depending on how close the
low gets (closer, cooler), with possible breezy conditions with
gusts around 30-40 mph if the stronger solutions pan out. Snyder

AVIATION...

Isolated to widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are occurring over the Sierra today, mainly near and west of the
crest north of Highway 50. Activity should mainly remain west of a
KSVE to KTRK to KTVL line, but there is a 10% chance for a direct
hit at terminals along that line. Any storms should remain modest
with a few lightning strikes, brief light-moderate rain, and wind
gusts to 30 kts.

For Tuesday, SW winds increase with peak gusts to around 25 kts.
Isolated thunderstorms are still possible south of Highway 50 out
into far western NV. A few showers are possible on Wednesday as a
weak trough moves in, but it looks to remain VFR at this time.
Snyder/Wallmann

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

 916 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to push southeast of the area
overnight, followed by another front entering from the
northwest Tuesday afternoon. Yet another front passes across
Wednesday, before high pressure builds overhead Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 855 PM EDT Monday...

Shallow convection continues to clip far southeast sections
while northward advance has been limited by mid level dry air as
seen off evening soundings and lower surface dewpoints per MSAS.
Instability has also been rather weak over southern sections so
appears given loss of heating that most added deeper convection
will remain to the south ahead of the weak front now across
southeast sections. Latest HRRR a bit more aggressive in
holding showers in well after midnight espcly far southern
third as the sheared wave aloft seen off the vapor loop crosses
the region overnight. This so far has been overdone so leaning a
bit more toward the drier Rap solution in keeping in some low
pops southeast a couple hours after midnight as showers may tend
to string out along the slow boundary. Otherwise not a lot of
change with mainly cloudy skies per extensive mid deck, and
lows 50s mountains to low/mid 60s east.


Previous valid discussion as of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Pops will remain on the low end early this afternoon, with
meager convergence, however, a few showers are popping up and/or
moving in from far SW VA, with some cu development over the Blue
Ridge north of the James River.

High-res models still content on keeping focus over NC and south
today with storms becoming more robust by late afternoon
along/south of I-40, but some should sneak into our southeast
CWA by 23-01z, so higher pops to 40-60 look good from
Yadkinville to South Boston. No big chances in the severe threat
with best instability and shear over the piedmont of NC and east
of Danville in VA, to points east and south.

Drier air should filter into the low levels overnight west of the
Blue Ridge, but expect slower removal of higher dewpoints to the
east, as frontal boundary stalls from the Smokys/North Georgia to
the coastal plains of NC. Seems we will keep some mid/high clouds
across the piedmont overnight with a little clearing to the west.

Lows tonight expected to be similar to this mornings, with mid to
upper 50s west, to lower to mid 60s.

Tuesday, not much change in the airmass, though slightly lower
dewpoints are possible in the higher ridges. Southwest flow aloft
and some weak vorts tracking along it may spark isolated convection
but overall threat expected to be 20/30 pops at most in the
afternoon. Highs will range from the mid to upper 70s mountains, to
mid 80s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM EDT Monday...

On Tuesday evening, the passage of a weak surface trough out of
the forecast area should allow for a brief period of dry
weather for the overnight hours. With westerly low-level flow,
the mid- Atlantic/central Appalachians region should remain
removed from higher dewpoints over the central/eastern
Carolinas. Temperatures should be fairly seasonable with
lowering humidity levels into the 50s to near 60.

Wednesday looks to be the most active day in the mid-week period.
Low-level winds back slightly toward the southwest/south-southwest
ahead of a potent mid-level shortwave and associated surface cold
front over the Ohio Valley. These two features approach the central
Appalachians late Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Should start
Wednesday with mostly sunny skies but with increasing cumulus clouds
due to steepening low-level lapse rates and modest moist advection
as winds become more southwesterly. Frontal timing is a little
slower than noted yesterday, moving across the region later
Wednesday afternoon into the mid-evening hours. Relatively strong
500 mb jet of 60 kts contributes to unidirectional though strong
speed shear with effective shear magnitudes of 50 kts. GFS and NAM
are at odds on the degree of instability due mainly to potential
daytime mixing of drier dewpoints. CAPEs range from 1500-1700 J/kg
as modeled by 12z NAM using the most unstable parcel while the drier
GFS comes in with CAPE values about half that much. Potential would
exist for an organized scattered strong to severe thunderstorm risk
if the NAM`s shear/instability parameter space proves correct, less
so with the GFS. It is something that will need to carefully
monitored. Current Day-3 severe convective outlook depicts a 5%
severe/Marginal Risk from the Blue Ridge foothills westward, with
general thunder further east. This seems appropriate given
uncertainties as described, though the threat may be slightly higher
if greater instability is realized.

Behind the front, a strong shot of cooler and drier air then advects
into the region late Wednesday night into Thursday. Surface ridge
builds in from the Midwest allowing for the first real fully dry day
experienced recently. This should knock temperatures down to highs
in the mid 70s to lower 80s except cooler in the mountains but with
notably drier conditions, and lows Thursday night in the 50s to near
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Monday...

Forecast area then becomes embedded in a zonal, confluent mid-level
flow for a large part of late week into the weekend. This is
modulated by two primary 500 mb features: a persistent mid/upper-
level low and cyclonic flow over the Northeast/Great Lakes, and
increasing troughing over the Four Corners leading to greater
southwest flow and warmer/more humid conditions from the Plains
into the Tennessee Valley.

Warmer and increasing humidity levels can be expected through the
upcoming weekend, along with a return to a wet weather pattern in a
general sense. Timing weak shortwave troughs/vorticity maxima in the
confluent flow is difficult; and as such, I`ve kept chances for PoPs
lingering through the upcoming weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 645 PM EDT Monday...

Weak front over the area along with the arrival of a wave aloft
from the southwest will bring periods of mid deck along with
sct/bkn cumulus across southern sections into late this evening.
This should make for mainly VFR cigs with potential MVFR around
KDAN if any convection to the south lifts farther north. Will
keep in a VCTS/tempo mix for shra/tsra at KDAN through at least
midnight as this point. Otherwise rest of terminals should stay
rainfree, though a light shower/sprinkle cannot be ruled out,
but nothing to obscure vsbys or lower cigs below VFR.

Latest guidance shifts most convection to the southeast well
after midnight with lingering mid deck over the east and some
high clouds over the west. Fog may become an issue mainly over
the east/southeast where dewpoints remain higher and espcly
around KDAN if some rainfall occurs. Also some late night valley
fog possible over the west. Thus appears a period of MVFR/IFR in
fog/stratus will be possible espcly at KLWB/KBCB/KDAN, but
confidence remains low to medium of seeing much coverage.

Any fog lifts around 13z/9am to VFR and some sct/bkn mid clouds
Tuesday morning followed by sct/bkn cumulus in the afternoon.

Another front expected by Tuesday afternoon appears to bring
scattered to isolated threat of showers/storms to the area, but
will be VFR overall.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Overall VFR expected for mid and late week before showers and
storms increase later Friday into Saturday. Exceptions will be
any late night river fog, or shower/wet ground induced fog.

Next threat of shower/storms Wednesday with yet another front
and decent upper support, so will have to watch for stronger
convection but appears any sub-VFR will be brief and mainly over
the mountains.

Thursday looks dry then more potential for scattered afternoon
and evening storms Friday through the weekend with the best
coverage on Saturday when more in the way of sub-VFR will be
possible.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...AL
LONG TERM...AL
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP