Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/30/17

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1110 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front over eastern PA will weaken and dissipate overnight. Another cold front will push toward the region Tuesday. Low pressure at the surface and aloft will stay centered near James Bay Canada through the rest of the week providing a period of slightly cooler than normal temperatures along with several chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 10PM update... The meso anal shows the a weak front remaining stalled over my eastern zones extending from just west of IPT south to around Camp David MD. The low clouds and cooler marine air remain entrenched over the eastern zones. The HRRR suggests this boundary could even slide a bit to the west over the next few hours before washing out altogether in the strengthening SW flow after midnight. Upstream convection embedded in the broad cyclonic flow aloft could sneak a few showers/isolated thunderstorms into my western and northern zones overnight, but the majority of the region will remain dry and mild. Lows will average about 5-10 deg above normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Brief ridging will allow any popcorn sprinkles and light showers to clear over the western two-thirds of the CWA this evening, and residual moisture may lead to areas of fog, especially in the central valleys. The low level moisture and low stratus deck AOB 1000 ft AGL will push gradually westward across the Central Mtns and West Br Susq Valley and stay intact through early Tuesday. Mins tonight will dip into the 50s for most, as the dewpoints will be the bottom limit. A separate, weak sfc trough will be pushed into the area from the northwest tonight. 8H temps fall a bit over the NW. Heights fall just a little, too, so some precip is possible before sunrise Tuesday over the northwestern third of the area, but it should be light. The trough begins to catch the stalled trough over the eastern counties. The southerly or southeasterly wind will yield good convergence and will crank up some showers and thunderstorms. Have painted high POPs for the area, but the amount/severity of destabilization is in question with the clouds in the NE early in the day. NAM cranks out 1500joules of CAPE and LI drops to -2 or so in the mid-day and aftn on Tues. SPC marginal Risk of svr wx for Day 2 (Tues) is painted across our eastern half, focused on the peak heating time. Will continue to mention this in the HWO. Max temps across the region will range through the 70s, with the warmest readings once again in the scent mtns where 78-80F readings should occur. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The long term period begins with a good consensus on the location and shape of the large upper level low over southern Canada. That low will dominate the weather pattern this week into next. As the low rotates it will bring successive short and long wave troughs through the Mid Atlantic region. These troughs will bring the possibility of precipitation, mainly Wednesday and Friday afternoon. This upper level low will also bring cooler northwesterly flow into central PA. That flow should keep temperatures around, to slightly below, normal. The next chance for significant precipitation will be Friday night into Saturday as that upper level low progresses eastward. The models begin to diverge on the position, timing and strength of the system. This decreases confidence. However, all models show a boundary that should set up through the keystone state. The main question is when will it progress through and how much moisture will be available for QPF when the corresponding cold front moves through Saturday. Current GFS brings precipitation through Saturday where the EC brings largest QPF Sunday. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Some minor adjustments to 03Z TAFS. Activity to the southeast is south of our area, and showers to the west are weakening. Left shower out of BFD, that area north of PA now. For 00Z TAF package, did add brief tempo group for fog at UNV, AOO, and BFD, given wet ground. I did not make it too long, given short nights. Far eastern areas will likely see MVFR and IFR conditions tonight into Tuesday, given easterly flow. For Tuesday, expect most of the area to be VFR. For now, went with VCSH instead of any significant time or point with showers and storms. Dewpoints not real high, much lower than yesterday, and low level flow not real strong, hard to see much in the way of widespread storms with low CIGS etc. Best chance for a dry day will be Thursday. .OUTLOOK... Wed...Chance of showers. Thu...No sig wx expected. Fri...Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sat...Still a chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...Ceru/Martin AVIATION...Martin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
411 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017 Latest water vapor imagery shows a stalled out upper low over the Great Lakes area. Ridge of high pressure extends from northern Arizona, through Nevada, up into Idaho and eventually up into British Columbia this afternoon. CWFA under northerly flow on the east side of this ridge. Surface analysis showing a weak cold front extending out of the Great Lakes low extending southwestward into northern Kansas and eventually into the western nebraska Panhandle. IR imagery showing some cooling cloud tops this afternoon over the Laramie Range. Radar showing most of the convection south of WYoming with cell movement towards the south southeast at 30-35MPH. Did get a few spits of rain outside a few minutes ago here at the office, so will continue the low chance PoPs we have going for this afternoon. Latest SPC Mesoanalyst Page showing around 500 J/KG of CAPE in the vicinity of these showers. May not see much today with a temperature of 58 here at Cheyenne. Latest HRRR guidance shows best chances for showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm late afternoon in the 21-00Z timeframe. After loss of daytime heating, these showers really die out. We stay in this pattern as upper low over the Great Lakes barely moves through Tuesday. So I have to say more of the same tomorrow. Upper ridge finally moves overhead for Wednesday. At the same time, we start to see low level southeasterly flow returning east of the Laramie Range that could aid in afternoon convection. Followed latest ECMWF guidance that shows a scattered coverage of showers Wednesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017 Thursday...Looks like the warmest day of the week to start off the month of June, as a transitory ridge aloft prevails over our counties. Models indicate enough low and mid level moisture to spark isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon along and west of Interstate 25, with dry weather further east. Friday...Slow moving trough aloft moves over our counties and with a surface low expected to develop somewhere over our central or eastern counties adding to low level convergence, we expect at least isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, most numerous along and east of Interstate 25. Saturday...Weak troughiness aloft prevails and with low level winds from the east and southeast, drawing in low level moisture, expect to see at least isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Slightly Thursday...Looks like the warmest day of the week to start off the month of June, as a transitory ridge aloft prevails over our counties. Models indicate enough low and mid level moisture to spark isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon along and west of Interstate 25, with dry weather further east. Sunday...Looks slightly drier as the ridge aloft becomes somewhat more pronounced, limiting instability. Still looks like enough low and mid level moisture for isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms near the higher terrain and mountains due to differential heating. Monday...GFS shows the next potent trough aloft moving into Idaho with diffluent flow aloft over our counties, aiding in lift to produce isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms along and east of Interstate 25. Likely quite breezy with moderate surface pressure gradients suggesting decent low level moisture return from the south. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 409 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017 Wyoming TAFS...VFR, with isolated showers and thunderstorms at Cheyenne and Laramie through 01Z. Nebraska TAFS...VFR. Gusts up to 24 knots at Scottsbluff through 01Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017 Recent rain and ongoing greenup will preclude any fire weather concerns this upcoming week. Have a cold front along the east slopes of the Laramie Range this afternoon that will continue to kick off showers and thunderstorms over the mountains and adjacent valleys. Slow warming trend through the week as a ridge of high pressure builds into the area from the west and forces the weak cold front east. Afternoon humidities look to stay above critical levels each day with fair to good overnight recoveries. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GCC LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...RUBIN FIRE WEATHER...GCC
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
627 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017 .AVIATION... VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. Any showers or storms will remain well north and west of the TAF sites even though some remnant clouds will move over the terminals. Jordan && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017/ DISCUSSION... Agitated CU field evident in visible satellite in higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and southern Texas Panhandle appears to be a little ahead of schedule than depicted by short term guidance time line. Both HRRR and RAP dewpoints have generally been a couple degrees off on the drier side than obs have indicated while the weak upslope surface flow is doing its part as advertised. Any convective activity should quickly decline diurnally. Steady south-southeast surface flow will continue through midweek helping to gradually build higher dewpoints across our area and into eastern New Mexico. Weak upper level trough slowly digging SSE out of southern California into western Mexico will result in best surface pressure falls in southern New Mexico southward tomorrow afternoon through early Wednesday though some showers and general thunderstorms could wander into our western zones overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. By midday Wednesday the trough over southern Arizona begins to shift north and east toward our latitude providing to enough lift and instability for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday. Anemic lapse rates and weak flow aloft should keep storms below severe levels in our forecast area though the potential exists just our south but even then chances for severe are low. As shower and thunderstorm chances continue into Thursday, embedded shortwave energy aloft, increased surface heating and a weak dryline should result in increased probability of stronger to marginally severe storms especially east of the I27 corridor in the South Plains into the Rolling Plains. Upper level flow will still be a limiting factor though 30kt flow in in the southern jet encroaching our southern counties could provide enough lift and ventilation across our southern tier. Friday another dryline develops and could bring another rough of showers and isolated strong thunderstorms if it doesn`t surge too far east before a pronounced upper level shortwave later Friday evening. Long term guidance does suggest continued low end POPS through the weekend depending how slow or progressive the shortwave troughing develops in vicinity of a building ridge to our west. Temperatures will be at or below seasonal normals with the exception of Friday as highs build into the low 90s for most of our area as more westerly component in surface winds behind the dryline warms us slightly. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
345 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 345 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017 Currently... Showers and thunderstorms have developed along and just east of the s mtns at 2 pm. Most of the activity attm was just east of Pikes Peak and se of the Spanish Peaks. Small hail has been observed with some of the storms and MMRS was indicating hail up to 1 inch in the strongest storms. Over the plains SBCAPE ranged from 500 to 1000 J/KG with a few pockets of higher amounts. Shear was about 25knts. SPC has added areas into marginal risk. Rest of today into tonight... HRRR has been pretty accurate so far. TSRA has developed over the Pikes Peak region and expect it to increase in coverage as it moves ESE across the plains the rest of this afternoon. Some gusty winds and hail will be possible, with some marginally svr hail pssbl per latest SPC MCD. One thing of note is the guidance has been pretty consistent on showing another round of some convection coming off the mtns later this afternoon, along with convection developing over the plains. Likewise, expect a busy late afternoon and evening over the plains with respect to convection. With the marginal CAPE values and some shear, a few of the storms will be strong with a marginally svr storm or two possible. Convection will last into the late evening, but expect the brunt of it to be over with by midnight. Little if any precip will occur west of the southern mtns. Tuesday... Another round of showers and thunderstorms are likely. cyclonic NW flow will continue aloft with weak usplope flow. LLVL moisture will linger and we will once again see CAPE values similar to today along with modest shear. Storms will develop over the mtns early in the afternoon and move slowly southeast during the latter afternoon time period. A few of the storms will be strong with one or two marginally svr cells possible. max temps should be 1-2F warmer than today with highs around 80 on the plains and 70s valleys. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 345 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017 Relatively active conditions are anticipated during the longer term with primary meteorological issues temperatures, pops/qpf, winds, and the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms as well as locally heavy rainfall at times. Longer range forecast model soundings, PV analysis and computer simulations indicate varying degrees of upper ridging will prevail over the forecast district from Tuesday night into Thursday night in advance of an upper trough moving across the region from Friday into Saturday with upper ridging redeveloping over southern Colorado from Saturday night into next Monday. The combination of upper disturbances interacting with north-northeasterly surface surges and surface boundaries over southern Colorado will allow isolated to scattered primarily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day of the longer term. At this time, it appears that the highest potential of more widespread precipitation activity over the forecast district during the longer term should be noted Tuesday evening and then from later Friday into the weekend, while the highest potential for more widespread stronger to severe thunderstorms(generally favoring eastern sections) should be experienced from Friday afternoon into Friday night and then again from Sunday afternoon into Monday night(with the Monday afternoon into the Monday night storms being the most aggressive at this time). Overall, late May to early June minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to run near climatological averages during the longer term in combination with generally low-grade gradient winds. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 345 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017 Thunderstorms will be possible at KCOS and KPUB both this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. These storms could bring brief MVFR conditions to the TAF sites along with gusty NW winds. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions at KCOS and KPUB. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
853 PM PDT Mon May 29 2017 .UPDATE... The few cells that developed on our side of the Sierra late this afternoon have dissipated with lack of daytime heating and no mid/upper level support. Monday`s development followed the pattern of the previous few days with convection developing west and ( least) east of the crest over bare ground areas as opposed to near the crest where the snow cover is apparently keeping the boundary layer more stable. Will update the sky cover for the rest of tonight and update the public forecasts to take out mention of showers and thunderstorms. Latest model guidance is not very robust with convective development for Tuesday. However...given early afternoon southerly flow in the mid levels...we are still expecting some development for parts Mono County north into far western Nevada. Models are still quite warm for Tuesday so low level instability should be there east of the Sierra. Add to that organized westerly flow in the low levels by late in the day and we could see a few thunderstorms as far north as the Pine Nut Mountains and the Virginia Range. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 320 PM PDT Mon May 29 2017/ SYNOPSIS... Above average temperatures will persist through Tuesday with continued spring Sierra snowmelt leading to cold and swift flows near creeks and rivers. There will be a low chance for thunderstorms near the Sierra this afternoon, and south of Highway 50 Tuesday. A weak low will bring a cool down Wednesday with a few showers possible. Warmer and drier weather returns for late week. SHORT TERM... Added isolated showers and thunderstorms to some areas south of Highway 50 and the Virginia Range (east of Reno) for Tuesday, otherwise only minor changes to temperatures to insure a reasonable day-to-day trend for the next few days. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed on the west slopes of the Sierra near the snow line and north of Portola, with timing earlier and coverage greater than yesterday. The earlier convection and greater coverage may be partly due to a slight enhancement of upper lift/divergence ahead of an incoming upper wave near the northern CA coast. Northeast California/Sierra storms today should remain modest, with occasional lightning strikes, wind gusts to 35 mph, and brief light to moderate rain. Sierra/northeast CA convective development is likely to fall off quickly around sunset as it appears highly dependent on the daytime heating (modest upper forcing). As we go into late afternoon and early evening, the HRRR also shows a few cells trying to develop out into western NV south of Highway 50 and west of Highway 95. With a very dry sub-cloud layer out in the Basin, any cumulus that manage to build up to moderate depth are unlikely to produce measurable surface rain, especially given the expected weakness of convective development. Tuesday, isolated showers and thunderstorms were added to some areas south of Highway 50 across Mono County and out into far western NV. This is due to more of a southerly flow aloft with slower scouring of instability in those areas compared to previous simulations. Also, low level forcing looks better in far western NV compared with today with a zephyr-like flow in the afternoon to aid convergence. Wednesday, a trough axis will swing through northeast CA and western NV. That disturbance is expected to have deeper moisture with which to work. However, instability is very poor in simulations and there will be some drier air in the low levels to overcome. Therefore, while it looks like at least scattered showers in northeast CA closer to the upper disturbance, western NV and the Sierra from around Tahoe south may have difficulty getting more than a few brief showers and/or virga. In any case, it will be considerably cooler with highs around average on Wednesday. Snyder LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday... Thursday through Saturday, moderate ridging aloft is expected to build over the region with highs returning to well above average by Saturday. On Sunday, simulations are still arguing a bit with an upper low moving into the Northwest CONUS. The question is whether the low will dig farther south into Oregon or remain mainly over Washington. It is currently mainly a temperature and wind forecast, with high temperature variations between the lower 80s and lower 90s for western NV valleys depending on how close the low gets (closer, cooler), with possible breezy conditions with gusts around 30-40 mph if the stronger solutions pan out. Snyder AVIATION... Isolated to widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over the Sierra today, mainly near and west of the crest north of Highway 50. Activity should mainly remain west of a KSVE to KTRK to KTVL line, but there is a 10% chance for a direct hit at terminals along that line. Any storms should remain modest with a few lightning strikes, brief light-moderate rain, and wind gusts to 30 kts. For Tuesday, SW winds increase with peak gusts to around 25 kts. Isolated thunderstorms are still possible south of Highway 50 out into far western NV. A few showers are possible on Wednesday as a weak trough moves in, but it looks to remain VFR at this time. Snyder/Wallmann && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
916 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will continue to push southeast of the area overnight, followed by another front entering from the northwest Tuesday afternoon. Yet another front passes across Wednesday, before high pressure builds overhead Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 855 PM EDT Monday... Shallow convection continues to clip far southeast sections while northward advance has been limited by mid level dry air as seen off evening soundings and lower surface dewpoints per MSAS. Instability has also been rather weak over southern sections so appears given loss of heating that most added deeper convection will remain to the south ahead of the weak front now across southeast sections. Latest HRRR a bit more aggressive in holding showers in well after midnight espcly far southern third as the sheared wave aloft seen off the vapor loop crosses the region overnight. This so far has been overdone so leaning a bit more toward the drier Rap solution in keeping in some low pops southeast a couple hours after midnight as showers may tend to string out along the slow boundary. Otherwise not a lot of change with mainly cloudy skies per extensive mid deck, and lows 50s mountains to low/mid 60s east. Previous valid discussion as of 300 PM EDT Monday... Pops will remain on the low end early this afternoon, with meager convergence, however, a few showers are popping up and/or moving in from far SW VA, with some cu development over the Blue Ridge north of the James River. High-res models still content on keeping focus over NC and south today with storms becoming more robust by late afternoon along/south of I-40, but some should sneak into our southeast CWA by 23-01z, so higher pops to 40-60 look good from Yadkinville to South Boston. No big chances in the severe threat with best instability and shear over the piedmont of NC and east of Danville in VA, to points east and south. Drier air should filter into the low levels overnight west of the Blue Ridge, but expect slower removal of higher dewpoints to the east, as frontal boundary stalls from the Smokys/North Georgia to the coastal plains of NC. Seems we will keep some mid/high clouds across the piedmont overnight with a little clearing to the west. Lows tonight expected to be similar to this mornings, with mid to upper 50s west, to lower to mid 60s. Tuesday, not much change in the airmass, though slightly lower dewpoints are possible in the higher ridges. Southwest flow aloft and some weak vorts tracking along it may spark isolated convection but overall threat expected to be 20/30 pops at most in the afternoon. Highs will range from the mid to upper 70s mountains, to mid 80s east. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 145 PM EDT Monday... On Tuesday evening, the passage of a weak surface trough out of the forecast area should allow for a brief period of dry weather for the overnight hours. With westerly low-level flow, the mid- Atlantic/central Appalachians region should remain removed from higher dewpoints over the central/eastern Carolinas. Temperatures should be fairly seasonable with lowering humidity levels into the 50s to near 60. Wednesday looks to be the most active day in the mid-week period. Low-level winds back slightly toward the southwest/south-southwest ahead of a potent mid-level shortwave and associated surface cold front over the Ohio Valley. These two features approach the central Appalachians late Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Should start Wednesday with mostly sunny skies but with increasing cumulus clouds due to steepening low-level lapse rates and modest moist advection as winds become more southwesterly. Frontal timing is a little slower than noted yesterday, moving across the region later Wednesday afternoon into the mid-evening hours. Relatively strong 500 mb jet of 60 kts contributes to unidirectional though strong speed shear with effective shear magnitudes of 50 kts. GFS and NAM are at odds on the degree of instability due mainly to potential daytime mixing of drier dewpoints. CAPEs range from 1500-1700 J/kg as modeled by 12z NAM using the most unstable parcel while the drier GFS comes in with CAPE values about half that much. Potential would exist for an organized scattered strong to severe thunderstorm risk if the NAM`s shear/instability parameter space proves correct, less so with the GFS. It is something that will need to carefully monitored. Current Day-3 severe convective outlook depicts a 5% severe/Marginal Risk from the Blue Ridge foothills westward, with general thunder further east. This seems appropriate given uncertainties as described, though the threat may be slightly higher if greater instability is realized. Behind the front, a strong shot of cooler and drier air then advects into the region late Wednesday night into Thursday. Surface ridge builds in from the Midwest allowing for the first real fully dry day experienced recently. This should knock temperatures down to highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s except cooler in the mountains but with notably drier conditions, and lows Thursday night in the 50s to near 60. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 100 PM EDT Monday... Forecast area then becomes embedded in a zonal, confluent mid-level flow for a large part of late week into the weekend. This is modulated by two primary 500 mb features: a persistent mid/upper- level low and cyclonic flow over the Northeast/Great Lakes, and increasing troughing over the Four Corners leading to greater southwest flow and warmer/more humid conditions from the Plains into the Tennessee Valley. Warmer and increasing humidity levels can be expected through the upcoming weekend, along with a return to a wet weather pattern in a general sense. Timing weak shortwave troughs/vorticity maxima in the confluent flow is difficult; and as such, I`ve kept chances for PoPs lingering through the upcoming weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 645 PM EDT Monday... Weak front over the area along with the arrival of a wave aloft from the southwest will bring periods of mid deck along with sct/bkn cumulus across southern sections into late this evening. This should make for mainly VFR cigs with potential MVFR around KDAN if any convection to the south lifts farther north. Will keep in a VCTS/tempo mix for shra/tsra at KDAN through at least midnight as this point. Otherwise rest of terminals should stay rainfree, though a light shower/sprinkle cannot be ruled out, but nothing to obscure vsbys or lower cigs below VFR. Latest guidance shifts most convection to the southeast well after midnight with lingering mid deck over the east and some high clouds over the west. Fog may become an issue mainly over the east/southeast where dewpoints remain higher and espcly around KDAN if some rainfall occurs. Also some late night valley fog possible over the west. Thus appears a period of MVFR/IFR in fog/stratus will be possible espcly at KLWB/KBCB/KDAN, but confidence remains low to medium of seeing much coverage. Any fog lifts around 13z/9am to VFR and some sct/bkn mid clouds Tuesday morning followed by sct/bkn cumulus in the afternoon. Another front expected by Tuesday afternoon appears to bring scattered to isolated threat of showers/storms to the area, but will be VFR overall. Extended Aviation Discussion... Overall VFR expected for mid and late week before showers and storms increase later Friday into Saturday. Exceptions will be any late night river fog, or shower/wet ground induced fog. Next threat of shower/storms Wednesday with yet another front and decent upper support, so will have to watch for stronger convection but appears any sub-VFR will be brief and mainly over the mountains. Thursday looks dry then more potential for scattered afternoon and evening storms Friday through the weekend with the best coverage on Saturday when more in the way of sub-VFR will be possible. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/WP NEAR TERM...JH/WP SHORT TERM...AL LONG TERM...AL AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP