Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/20/17

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
738 PM MDT Fri May 19 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 738 PM MDT Fri May 19 2017 Upper level low over far eastern Colorado will continue to lift north-northeast overnight. Wrap around showers will slowly shift eastward tonight. By morning, expect the showers to be east of the state. Some snow may mix in over the higher locations of Lincoln and Washington counties. Adjusted the forecast for higher pops in this area. Scattered snow showers over the mountains will end this evening as the airmass stabilizes. Low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 30s tonight. Cloud cover and a moist airmass will make it tough to drop into the 20s along the Front Range and across the eastern plains. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri May 19 2017 The upper trough anchored to a 500 mb low over south central CO remains elongated along a north-south axis along the spine of the Rockies. On GOES-16 one can see a stark contract in cloud coverage from west-to-east across the state with generally clear skies west of the Divide and mostly to overcast skies east of the Divide. Under these clouds, area NWS radars continue to detect north-south bands of mostly light precip crossing the eastern half of the CWA. Only a few showers were still being detected in the local high country. However, that should change as temperatures warm with increasing sunshine. On the plains, have witnessed a slow westward expansion in shower coverage with transport winds becoming more oriented southeasterly in direction. HRRR and RAP show this showery precipitation advancing as far west as the eastern edge of the I-25 urban corridor by 22z today. More aggressive is the ARW which shows this precip/QPF against the northern foothills by 21z and and in the Denver metro area about an hour later. These models also indicate an area of heavier QPF forming across the northeast corner of the state late this afternoon and lingering through early this evening. They indicate up to 0.30-0.40 inch of QPF and 1-2 inches of snow out there. Elsewhere on the plains, the showery precip this afternoon should mainly fall as rain, although the heavier showers east of the urban corridor and up near the Wyoming border may be a mix of rain and snow. Additional snow accumulation at higher elevations generally under 3 inches. Tonight...the 700-500mb low is progged to trek northeast across sern CO early and nwrn KS late, the mid-level flow over nern CO become northerly again. This will advect drier air down from WY, but not necessarily cooler air as temps up there are slightly warmer than they were down here today. The boundary layer air filtering down will also be drier, and with an end to the QG lift and orographic forcing, should see an end to nearly all shower activity by midnight or so. The question remains, how fast will low and mid-level clouds clear over the plains. That would mean the difference between a night of sub- freezing temperatures or not. At present, a freeze warning is out for the plains which go into effect at 2 AM MDT. As I see it not expect clouds to clear sufficiently over the eastern half of the plains zones before 12Z to allow temperatures to fall below 0C. However, closer to the foothills, I guess temps could fall to just below freezing for a long enough time to warrant holding onto the warning. Therefore, will keep the freeze warning for zones 038..039..040..041..042 and 043 up along the foothills. On Saturday...As the upper low will continue its northeastward track across Nebraska, causing the flow aloft to become northwesterly. This will warm and further dry out the plains airmass. Latest guidance indicates highs tomorrow in the mid to upper 50s on the plains, 40s/lower 50s in the high country. That`s about 10-12 deg f below average for the plains. In the high country, models show a weak disturbance embedded in this northwest flow moving down over the nrn mtns during the morning hours and generating scattered snow showers. Snow amounts should be light. Expect to see this batch of high country precip winding down around midday. Then during the afternoon, isolated heat generated showers forming over the high ridges. High temps in the high country Friday will be about average for the date. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri May 19 2017 Zonal flow will prevail over the CWA Saturday night into Sunday evening. Then an upper trough will push across Colorado on Monday. Northwesterly flow aloft is progged Monday night. Downward synoptic scale energy is progged Saturday night into Sunday evening, then weak upward motion is over the CWA into Monday evening. Normal diurnal wind patterns appear to dominate the low level winds Saturday night into Monday. A decent cold front with upslope behind is progged into and across the plains late Monday. The upslope continues Monday night. For moisture, there is quite a bit progged Saturday night well into Sunday night...with some clearing into midday Monday. Moisture increases Monday afternoon and night. This is a tiny bit of CAPE over the high mountains early evening. There is better CAPE around late day Sunday, with the highest values over the mountains and foothills. There is less CAPE late day Monday, and only over the mountains. There is a bit of measurable precipitation over the mountains Saturday evening. There is more for late day Sunday and it covers most of the of the forecast area. Same for Monday. Will go with a few alpine showers Saturday evening. Will need higher pops Sunday and Monday, even some "likely"s in the high country. For temperatures, Sunday`s highs are 0-1.5 C warmer than Saturday`s. Monday`s highs are 1-3 C cooler than Sunday`s. For the later days, Tuesday through Friday, north-northeasterly winds aloft prevail Tuesday into Wednesday as an upper ridge moves into the CWA Thursday and Friday. Tuesday night into Friday morning look to be dry. Temperatures will get back to seasonal normals from Wednesday onward. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 738 PM MDT Fri May 19 2017 Ceilings in the Denver area are 1000 feet MSL and are expected to slowly rise through the overnight hours. Around 09Z, lower clouds are expected to be east of the area. Good chance that mid and high clouds will linger into Saturday morning. If there is clearing, there will be a chance for fog around 12Z. Scattered mid and high clouds are expected for Saturday with light winds. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri May 19 2017 A flood advisory will remain in effect through at least tomorrow afternoon for the South Platte River near Kersey in Weld County, along the South Platte River near Weldona in Morgan County, and along the South Platte River near Balzac in Logan, Morgan and Washington Counties. Runoff from the recent heavy rainfall and the heavy snow cover in and near the Front Range will continue to make its way down the South Platte River. This will cause flooding of lying areas along the river from west central Weld County through Morgan County. Only light precipitation is anticipated in these areas during the next 24 hours. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM MDT Saturday for COZ038>043. && $$ UPDATE...Meier SHORT TERM...Baker LONG TERM...RJK AVIATION...Meier HYDROLOGY...Baker
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1027 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure in Canada will slowly build into the area through the weekend. The next weather system will bring rain to the area Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 1025 PM Update... Clouds have moved out of the region for the most part w/some scattered clouds down across the downeast region. Temps have dropped off w/the clearing as colder air is moving into the region from Canada. Temps across the far nw areas already down in the upper 30s such as Clayton Lake down to 38F as winds have dropped off below 6 mph. IR and WV satl imagery indicate an upper trof to swing across the region overnight. This feature is picked up well by the latest run of the RAP which shows winds picking up again to around 10 mph overnight. This should allow for the blyr to stay mixed which should keep most of the frost at bay. There is a risk that some low lying areas could see some patchy frost by early Saturday morning as temps hit lower 30s in those areas. Therefore, kept some patchy frost in across far n and w. Otherwise, temps in the mid/upper 30s for the rest of northern areas w/around 40 central and downeast areas. Previous Discussion... 1028mb sfc high sitting south of James Bay wl begin to build into the CWA thru the end of the near term pd. Nw winds wl start to lighten by late aftn Sat with temps rebounding into the m60s for Downeast and u50s acrs the north. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Strong high pressure is expected to be building in from the northwest at the beginning of this period. The high will move across the state and eventually to the south of New England by Sunday Evening. Clouds will increase late Sunday with rain moving into western areas Sunday Night. Rain will continue to spread northeastward Monday. Have used a blend of the GFS, NAM, and ECMWF for populating grids. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pressure is expected to develop over Southern New England Monday Evening. The low will move northeast through the Gulf of Maine Tuesday resulting in rain across the region. A cold front will move across the State Tuesday. High pressure will build to the east of New England Wednesday. Low pressure will then approach from the southwest Wednesday Night and pass to the west of New England Thursday. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR cigs expected for the next 2-4 hours at FVE, CAR and PQI before becoming VFR. VFR at all other terminals next 24 hours. NW winds will remain gusty for most terminals through tomorrow afternoon. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions expected Sunday. VFR/MVFR conditions expected Monday. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds will gust to near 25kts this evening as a cold front crosses the water. This will likely be just below SCA levels, thus the advisory has been cancelled. Seas will remain below 5 feet through Saturday. SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM to populate wind grids Sunday and Monday. Will lower model wind speed from NAM 10 percent due to cold sea surface temperature making boundary layer Stable. Will transition to the Super Blend winds late Monday. For Waves: For Sunday expect northerly wind wave for primary wave group and a secondary southerly swell system subsiding during the day. A southerly wind wave is expected Monday into Tuesday, then a southerly fetch will build from the Gulf of Maine southward on Wednesday in response to deepening low pressure over the northeastern U.S. Will use the Nearshore Wave Prediction System for wave grids. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
946 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler and drier air will settle in for the weekend. Low pressure will track west of Pennsylvania early next week, with the trailing cold front coming through the region Sunday night or Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Dry line now into Happy Valley. Surface dewpoints and ThetaE dropping precipitously as the cooler and drier air moves in from the NE. That boundary was visible on radars - curving from NC PA over to Long Island a little earlier. Isolated showers remain across the souther tier. The large convective complex moving into western PA is falling apart without good dynamic support and waning CAPE/solar energy. While most of the showers coming in from the west will dwindle to only orphaned-anvil rain/sprinkles, it is still worth a small POP through the next couple of hours in the west. Clouds tonight left over from the convection to the west may keep temps up a deg or two. Prev... Dry air still having trouble sliding southward. But, the dewpoints are now below 60F over half of the CWA. Showers over the far srn tier appear to be weaker with each scan, and the anticipation is that this trend will continue as heating and CAPE decrease. However, we will leave in chc POPs in the Laurels for the next hour or two. Then a little lull, but the Laurels may again need higher POPs later tonight as the MCS currently over OH slides to the east. The weakening trend should also hold for that area of convection as well, and not much may survive past PBZ`s area. Prev... The meso analysis shows the cold front settling into my southern zones with the RAP indicating low level Theta-E advection going negative over all but the far southern stripe of the CWA. This is where the scattered convection is firing in the moderately unstable airmass along and ahead of the front. The best Cape of 1000-2000J extends along the MD border and the trend shows the atmosphere becoming more stable as the cool/negative Theta-E advection works south through the region. Wind shear has decreased markedly since this morning so the severe threat now seems to be mainly from an isolated pulse storm in the still warm and humid airmass. The convective threat will decrease as we lose heating and the front continues its push south. Basin average QPF will be generally 0.10 of an inch or less in southern PA. However, localized amounts of 0.25-0.50 inch are possible in places impacted by heavier showers and storms. High temps today ranging from the mid/upper 60s across far NW PA, to the upper 80s in the Lower Susq Valley will be a good 10-15 deg above normal across all but the far NW zones, where they will be near to slightly above normal. A lingering shower will be possible through mid evening before drier air works into all areas by midnight. Lows will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s north to south with lower dewpoints making for more comfortable sleeping conditions than the last couple of nights. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Saturday is expected to remain dry, with the exception of a shower possibly working into the far SW before the sun goes down. Increasing mid/high clouds could mar what otherwise would be a nearly perfect mid spring day. Highs generally in the 70s will be a few degrees either side of normal for mid May. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure over New England will slowly retreat off the East Coast on Sunday. The chance for showers will begin to increase from west to east through the day, ahead of a cold front approaching from the Midwest. Some thunder is possible by Sunday aftn across the west. The cold front should cross central Pennsylvania Sunday night into early Monday, accompanied by scattered showers and possibly some thunder. A weak area of high pressure will build in behind the front, providing a pleasant Tuesday. It looks like things may turn unsettled again during the middle to later part of next week, as upper-level low pressure drops into the Great Lakes and surface low pressure develops over the Mid-Atlantic region. This could bring a round of cooler, wet weather to the region Wed into Thurs. The upper-low should begin to lift out by Friday, allowing conditions to slowly improve. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Generally VFR will continue across central Pennsylvania through Saturday. Isolated MVFR cigs this evening will dissipate by 02z. VFR conditions are expected overnight and into Saturday. The next system will introduce a slight chance of showers into the west Saturday evening, with more widespread showers developing later Sunday and Sunday Night. .OUTLOOK... Sun...Showers and thunderstorms likely west advancing east by late afternoon and evening. Mon...Becoming VFR with showers ending from west to east. Tue...VFR. Wed...Widespread restrictions developing with showers and thunderstorms. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/La Corte NEAR TERM...Dangelo/La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Evanego AVIATION...La Corte
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
643 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 .Discussion... Issued at 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017 The upper level low continues to slowly make its way toward our area, bringing us the potential for a couple rounds of storms. The first round, currently entering the area, brings with it the potential for severe weather. The severe weather window is now through a couple of hours after sunset. The general set up is an upper shortwave is heading over the area from the southwest, while at the surface an east/west oriented stalled synoptic boundary is in place near the MO River. The biggest area of concern is going to be south of this boundary in central MO, along an east/west oriented surface outflow boundary located just south of I-70. The clouds have been able to clear some in this area which has allowed instability to increase to about 500-1000 J/kg. 0-6 km shear values of around 40-45 kts are also just enough to support organized convection. Dewpoints across this area have already reached the mid 60s, so there is also plenty of moisture. The main threats with these storms are going to be hail up to about 1 inch, strong to damaging winds, with an isolated tornado or two also possible. Therefore, we have issued a Tornado Watch in central MO, which is in effect until 10 pm tonight. There is also the potential for a second round of storms moving through later tonight. As time has gone on today it has started to look like we may not get quite as much QPF as originally thought. The HRRR shows the bulk of the second round moving through southern/eastern MO, dry slotting KC and surrounding areas early on, while the NAMNest and RAP are showing more rain over the area before the dry slot moves over us. Despite these differences, PWAT values are averaging out around 1.5 across the area which is well above the normal for this time of year, 0.99. In addition, the ground is saturated from yesterday`s storms. Therefore, if convection does get going behind the first round of storm, it won`t take much to have some flash flooding and river flooding concerns. Have gone with somewhat of a blend in the forecast and think most of the forecast area will see about 1-2 inches of rain from the second round of storms. The flash flood watch will continue due to the potential and we will continue to monitor river levels. Things should dry out west to east by tomorrow morning as the surface low and upper level low move off to the northeast over the Great Lakes. A cold front will move through behind the convection, cooling temperatures into the 60s and 70s for the rest of the weekend. A surface high will settle in behind the cold front with more zonal flow aloft. This will keep us dry until Monday, when a shortwave moves over the area. Can`t rule out severe weather given the time of year and overall pattern. && .Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued at 643 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017 Combination of IFR and MVFR conditions will prevail across the terminals this evening as more storms develop to the west in Kansas and then sweep northeast across the Kansas-Missouri state line. Current timing of prevailing storms and TEMPO groups highlight the timing at this time, but confidence is low on this, so anticipate the need for many updates this evening as storms develop and dissipate. Have also highlighted some low level wind shear early Saturday morning as the low level jet swings across the state line along with the upper level weather feature driving this activity. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. MO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ011>014- 020>023-028>031-037>039-043>045-053-054. && $$ Discussion...Grana Aviation...Cutter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
859 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 859 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 An MCV and line of storms will progress east-northeast across our forecast area over the next 3-5 hours. Instability and shear parameters continue to point toward low potential for severe wind and/or hail from the storms in our area. The latest HRRR indicates a break will develop behind this line, but another wave will arrive across our SE counties later tonight. Those storms also should be sub-severe. The better chances for severe weather now look to be focused later Saturday afternoon for areas along and east of I-57, when damaging wind, large hail and even a few tornadoes could develop. The main updates for the rest of tonight were to the timing and coverage of expected showers/storms. Thunder potential will be higher south of I-72/74, but a few strikes will be possible in our entire forecast area overnight. A blanket of low clouds will keep our low temps closer to current readings, with little change in airmass expected through sunrise. Updated forecast info is already available. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 Frontal boundary is currently located just north of the I-70 corridor this afternoon, with an extremely sharp temperature range over the forecast area. 2 pm readings ranging from the mid 40s north of Peoria, to the mid 80s from Flora to Lawrenceville. A surface low which has moved into southwest Indiana should start to drag this boundary a bit southward through the evening hours, although the significantly colder conditions should stay north of I-72. Large convective complex over Kansas and eastern Oklahoma this afternoon is now edging into western Missouri, and should start moving into western Illinois after midnight. The area immediately south of the I-72 corridor received 2 to 5 inches of rain last night. This would be the area most subject to any flash flooding. However, right now the system looks to be progressive enough, and more in a north-south axis, to mitigate the threat of additional flooding. This will be something we will watch closely over the next several hours. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 Large upper low currently over Colorado will shift into the central Plains by early Saturday, then lift northeast to near the Iowa/Minnesota border by mid evening. The frontal boundary will surge northward and place all of the forecast area in the warm sector by around midday. Have not changed forecast high temperatures much, mainly low-mid 80s except for some 70s northwest of I-55. The GFS brings CAPE values over 1200 J/kg over all of the forecast area by early afternoon, while the NAM limits the higher values mainly across eastern Illinois. Main threat for any severe weather would mainly be over the eastern CWA, where 0-6km bulk shear values reach 40-45 knots during the afternoon. By early evening, the trailing cold front will be pushing into the western CWA, and should largely be out of the forecast area by sunrise Sunday. The upper low will not be breaking any speed records early next week, mainly loitering just northwest of Lake Superior through Monday. By Monday night, a secondary lobe of energy will break free, and swing southeast into the Midwest, where it will slowly edge eastward through Thursday. In this particular pattern, temperatures will be relatively cool during mid week, with highs down into the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday, before starting to recover on Thursday. Rain chances will increase quite a bit Monday night into Tuesday as this low starts to move through, with some wraparound showers lingering into Wednesday. May be enough instability for a few thunderstorms on Tuesday, mainly over the eastern CWA. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 Central Illinois will see a continued break in the showers/storms before the next complex reaches near SPI between 02z-03z, then lift northeast toward PIA and BMI. Mesoanalysis tools show a much more stable airmass across central Illinois, so the storms should begin to weaken once they reach Illinois from eastern Missouri. We still expect IFR to low MVFR clouds to persist ahead of the rain, then drop to IFR across the board for late tonight into Saturday morning. Cloud heights should improve to MVFR toward mid morning, with VFR conditions at all TAF sites Saturday afternoon. Storm chances will be mainly confined to this evening for western TAF sites, then Saturday afternoon for eastern TAF sites. Winds will be generally E-NE this eve, then shift to E-SE late tonight and Sat morning, with southerly winds becoming established Sat afternoon. Wind speeds should remain 10-15kt for much of this TAF period. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Shimon SHORT TERM...Geelhart LONG TERM...Geelhart AVIATION...Shimon
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1047 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 .DISCUSSION... Wx map shows continued modest SE flow over the coastal waters at 15-20 kts, with SCEC continuing overnight. Inland, SE winds ~ 5 mph north of I-10, 5-10 mph along the I-10 corridor, and 10-15 mph coastal parishes/counties expected to continue. This will keep temps in the mid/upper 70s overnight, with only a minimal chance of showers possible. DML && .AVIATION... MVFR ceilings across SE TX/SW LA affecting BPT this evening, and likely to affect LCH shortly, and continue through the overnight hours. For AEX/LFT/ARA, intermittent MVFR ceilings mainly due to SCT/BKN layer during the 10-14z time frame. Continued VCTS by 20z Saturday for all sites, with a Prob30 group for TSRA at AEX from 00-06z Sunday as the frontal boundary sags further south. DML && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017/ DISCUSSION... Update for 00z TAFs. Ceilings will be VFR to MVFR this evening through the overnight hours. Expect the winds to decrease after sunset. Will carry VCTS starting around 17-18z on Saturday area- wide. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 438 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017/ DISCUSSION... Despite both LAPS and SPC RAP meso-analysis indicating little to no CINH remains over the area amid more than ample CAPE/instability, overall lack of forcing for ascent has thus far kept convection in check with radar data still showing mainly isolated showers. This activity should mostly wane during the evening hours, with attention then shifting west to upper low emerging east of the Rockies and its associated SFC low and trailing CDFNT. Global model guidance is in fair agreement through the weekend, depicting the upper low lifting through the Plains and into the northern Great Lakes with a building ridge off the West Coast helping to maintain a broad trof across much of the Central CONUS. The SFC low is progged to track NE in tandem with the upper low, with the trailing CDFNT slipping lazily through the area tomorrow night and into the Gulf waters by Sun night. Divergent flow aloft between the upper low lifting out to the NE and a subtropical jet nosing across northern MX and into the NW Gulf will provide additional lift amid what will continue to be a very moist and unstable airmass. Scattered to perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon. 0-6km shear is progged to be borderline, but given the available instability, isolated severe storms (mostly of the pulse-type variety) are possible. Could be a short break in activity for a time tomorrow evening, but convection should increase after midnight as the front begins to progress into the area. An active westerly jet aloft coupled with the weak initial frontal passage and subsequent stalling over the northern Gulf will result in elevated rain chances continuing over the area SUN and MON, with a southward push of jet energy from Canada driving a stronger front through the area TUE night into WED. Much drier and cooler air to filter in behind this second frontal passage, with a very nice (and unseasonably cool) mid to late week period expected. 13 MARINE... Moderate southerly winds will persist through tonight as the region remains between strong high pressure ridging across the southeast US and low pressure over the Southern Plains. Expanded the Exercise Caution headline to include all Gulf waters through Saturday morning. Winds will decrease Saturday as a cold front approaches the area and the pressure gradient loosens. This front is forecast to stall over the coastal waters Sunday, and remain nearly stationary until a second and stronger front pushes through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Good chances of showers and thunderstorms are forecast Saturday through Tuesday, with much drier and cooler air behind the second front bringing an end to precipitation. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 73 87 70 82 / 10 70 60 60 LCH 74 86 71 85 / 10 50 40 60 LFT 76 87 74 86 / 10 60 40 70 BPT 76 87 72 87 / 20 40 40 60 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ450- 452-455-470-472-475. && $$ AVIATION...08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
905 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 .DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms associated with a mid level shortwave trough have diminished in coverage across the Mid-South this evening. However, upstream WSR-88D radars have shown an increase in activity across central Arkansas, and the ongoing convective complex over the Southern Plains. Short term models this evening thus far are having some difficulty resolving the overall evolution of upstream convection. Latest HRRR indicates the showers and thunderstorms will gradually move across southern Missouri and Arkansas overnight reaching areas near the Mississippi River towards daybreak. Will only make slight adjustments to account for short term trends. Forecast overall remains in good shape for the time being. CJC && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 609 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017/ UPDATE... Updated to add 00Z Aviation Discussion. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 156 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017/ DISCUSSION... Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across much of the Mid-South this afternoon thanks to a warm and humid airmass. This activity should begin to die out around sunset. Next chance for convection will then come overnight as a squall line is expected to push into Northeast Arkansas after midnight. The line should die as it approaches the Mississippi River due to the strength of the upper level ridge. Otherwise, expect a muggy night across the Mid-South with lows ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Leftover boundaries from the overnight convection will likely be the initiation points for shower and thunderstorm development by mid-day Saturday. Additional development will occur ahead of an approaching cold front that will move into Northeast Arkansas during the afternoon hours. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday Night as the front pushes through the CWA. Damaging winds may be possible with the squall line that is expected to move into Northeast Arkansas late tonight. Otherwise, any storm that develops Saturday afternoon into Saturday Night will have the potential to become severe due to the warm and unstable airmass that will be over the Mid-South. Highs on Saturday will range from lower 80s across Northeast Arkansas to the upper 80s across Northeast Mississippi. Some lingering convection may continue on Sunday across Northeast Mississippi. Otherwise, expect cooler and drier air to filter into the Mid-South behind the departing cold front. High pressure will then build into the region Sunday Night into Monday providing the area with pleasant conditions. Lows will be in the 50s with highs will be in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. Another cold front will move through the Mid-South on Tuesday which will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms back to the area. Wednesday will be a cool day across the area with chances for light showers due to an upper trof moving through the region. Highs will only be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. High pressure will build into the area for the remainder of the week. Temperatures will gradually warm back into the lower 80s for highs by Friday. KRM && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs Scattered showers and thunderstorms should continue through 02-03Z and gradually diminish. A complex of showers and thunderstorms may develop and affect JBR and perhaps MEM overnight towards daybreak Saturday. Additional showers and thunderstorms expected Saturday afternoon as a cold front begins to move across the Lower Mississippi Valley. S winds between 4-8 kts will increase to 9-12 kts on Saturday. MVFR conditions possible Saturday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected elsewhere outside of thunderstorms. CJC && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1049 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 902 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 Just some minor changes made to both PoPs and QPF for impending rain tonight/Saturday. First, HRRR/HopWRF/NAM/RAP all show a slowing trend with northward push of precip tonight, which makes sense given our persistent dry east flow. The slowing wasn`t much and amounts to about a 2 hour delay in precip arrival at any one location. For QPF, trended it tonight/tomorrow closer to what we are seeing from the RAP and other short term hi-res models. They show a heavier area of QPF coming into SW up into central MN tomorrow. This is associated with the precip currently down around Omaha. This region of precip will find itself at the nose of the LLJ in a zone of good isentropic upglide, moisture convergence, and fgen as it lifts north through the day Saturday. Current run total QPF looks very similar what the 21z SREF has with storm total rainfall amounts a little over an inch out toward Willmar and Redwood Falls. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 Showers continue to fall apart across far southern Minnesota this afternoon as they encounter dry air. The next round is beginning to take shape across northern Kansas into western Missouri. Models have slowed down its northward progress a bit, reaching southern Minnesota after 3-4 am and expanding into central MN/western WI between 7-9 am. Rain will persist all day Saturday into Saturday night, although the most intense rain should last for maybe 3-4 hours beginning shortly after its onset. Widespread rainfall amounts of a half to one inch appear likely. Temperatures will be about 5 degrees cooler than normal tonight, but 20 degrees colder than normal Saturday with highs only in the mid 40s to lower 50s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 The extended looks cool, cloudy, and wet through the first half of next week. Things will dry out by the middle of the week, but at this point not putting much faith in the drier solutions. Temperatures will be near or below the seasonal average for late May, which should help make the case that this month could be below normal in the Twin Cities for the first time since August of 2015. Increased chances for pops on Saturday night and Sunday as the upper level system brings cool air, low clouds, and a few rain showers. Forecast models show a brief reprieve on Monday, but forecast soundings show quite a bit of moisture in the H900-700mb layer so increased the cloud cover and lowered the temperatures for Monday. On Tuesday another area of vorticity will sweep across the region which will lead to forcing for ascent, clouds, and another round or seasonably cool rain showers. Decreased Tuesdays temperatures as well with a cool, cloudy forecast in mind. Looking ahead, models are generally in good agreement that northwest flow and subsidence should bring drier conditions across the region for the middle of the week, but another shortwave will follow for the end of the week. There are still timing differences between the models, but overall not optimistic that a prolonged period of warm and dry weather will set up across the Midwest between now and the end of the month. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 Edge of rain lifting into the Sioux City area at 11pm. Delays made to 00z TAFs still look good, so made no changes to rain and mvfr/ifr cig timing with the 06z TAFs. We`ll have a dry slot working into ern MN/wrn WI after 00z, with steady rain expected to end pretty quick once it moves in and is also why we have transitioned TAFs from STC on east over to DZ to end the TAF. The end of the TAF will also feature a sfc low centered somewhere between MSP and EAU at 6z Sun. Given discrepancies in the placement of the low, confidence is low in wind direction at the end of the TAF and they`ll be dependent on where the low tracks. Finally, NAM soundings continue to show AXN cooling enough to where they are awfully close to supporting snow at AXN Saturday night. Have not introduced snow at this point, but it will have to be watched for AXN. KMSP...High confidence in the forecast until the dry slot arrives. Expect us to be stuck with IFR cigs when the dry slot gets here, but precip may cut off completely, with vis not being as bad as we currently have. Our wind forecast for Saturday night sticks close to what our gridded forecast has, which is a blend of the models, but with the low passing close to MSP Saturday night, changes in the wind direction forecast for Saturday night as we work through the day Saturday and get more confidence for where the low is heading. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sun...MVFR. Chc -shra. Wind WNW at 15G25kt. Mon...VFR. Chc MVFR/-shra. Wind NW at 5-10kt. Tue...VFR. Chc MVFR/-shra. Wind N 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...MPG SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF LONG TERM...JRB AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
648 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 Scattered showers and storms have built northward into west Kentucky in the last few hours, but all indications are that this activity will move east and dissipate by sunset, leaving the entire area dry for most of the evening. In the meantime, we cannot rule out a stray strong to severe storm, but given the number of updrafts competing for the available instability and relatively weak wind fields over the region, organized severe weather is not expected. The most recent HRRR output still tries to bring an MCS into at least southeast Missouri and southern Illinois after 09Z and into Saturday morning. It appears that the severe potential with this system will be to our north. With south southwesterly flow through the column, any significant winds would be associated with northwest to southeast oriented portions of the line. However, heavy rainfall will be a concern, especially where the leading line orients itself parallel to the upper flow. The models are in reasonably good agreement in dragging the cold front through our region late Saturday night into Sunday morning. The convective potential should drop off quickly with the frontal passage, but we maintain small PoPs through the day Sunday. After the MCS tonight into Saturday morning, the convective evolution is unclear. The primary upper-level system will be well north of the area and we will not have the synoptic cold front in play yet. Best bet is that we will see scattered development through the day, especially near any outflow boundaries that remain in play. Not terribly concerned with severe weather, but given the potential surface airmass that may develop, especially south of any outflows, a stray strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out. Once again, with anomalously high moisture content, locally heavy rainfall will be the biggest concern. At this time, it is not obvious which areas may be hardest hit with multiple rounds of heavy rain tonight through Saturday night so will not be issuing a Flash Flood Watch. Still looking much more pleasant behind the front Sunday and Sunday night with temperatures a bit below normal on Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 We will have sfc high pressure in our vicinity on Monday but that system will shift east through the day. Another frontal boundary will be incoming from the west. Various models as well as the GFS ensembles seem to have a pretty decent handle on the timing, and this was the case yesterday as well. We should see dry weather through the evening hours on Monday, but after midnight Monday night and into Tuesday, precipitation chances increase. How quickly the front makes it through Tuesday into Tuesday evening is still a bit in question. However, there will be a break in the action after the frontal passage Tuesday evening or late Tuesday night. The upper level trough/low will move across the area on Wednesday. This will mean more clouds, more chances for showers and a downright cool day with highs only in the 60s. Models have their differences on how quickly this upper system departs on Wednesday night. May have to linger some POPs in that period...higher POPs east. We could have a chance to see lows in the upper 40s in some areas Wednesday night. We will see improving conditions on Thursday, as well as an increase in our temperatures and more sunshine as sfc high pressure builds back into the region. The upper flow transitions to a more flat/zonal flow by Friday with no large signals for any major chances for rain. && .AVIATION... Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 Medium confidence in the forecast with much of dependent on convection movement and/or development. The rest of the evening should be dry for most of the area. Scattered storms moving north out of AR will stay far west of KCGI toward the Ozark foothills and eventually dissipate through the evening. TS chances increase overnight into Saturday morning. It appears that we will most likely see an MCS move northeast through all or a portion of the area 09Z-15Z, but there could be development ahead of it as well, beginning as early as 03Z. Emphasized the early morning MCS potential with a wind shift and VCTS at all sites except KOWB. Kept it VFR for now, but IFR or lower conditions will be possible if the MCS develops. The forecast beyond 18Z is greatly dependent on morning convection. Morning convection could work over the atmosphere precluding the development of afternoon storms. Have included PROB30 groups at all sites for the development of convection during the afternoon given the uncertainty of the MCS. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...CW AVIATION...ML
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
917 PM MDT Fri May 19 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 914 PM MDT Fri May 19 2017 Updated forecast to allow WSW to expire across the southern mountains. Also adjusted POPs as precip is decreasing rather rapidly across most of the region. /Hodanish UPDATE Issued at 519 PM MDT Fri May 19 2017 Given current satellite and radar trends, decided to extend the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory for the Southern Sangres until 9 pm this evening. An additional 2 to 4 inches of new snow expected. Incorporated latest obs data. Moore && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri May 19 2017 An upper level low will continue tracking slowly east-northeast acrs CO this evening and is forecast to move into south central NE by 12Z Sat. There have been areas of persistent light rain acrs the southeast plains today, with showers increasing over the eastern and central CO mtns. Web cams on La Veta Pass show snow falling and it looks like it is accumulating a little. The NAM, GFS and HRRR show good pcpn coverage along the Sangre de Cristo and Wet mtns and the central mtns and far sern plains thru the evening hours, with isolated to scattered showers elsewhere. This could lead to a few additional inches of snow accumulations in these mtn areas. Will leave the Winter Wx Advisory for the southern Sangres in effect. As temps cool this evening, some of the lower elevation showers may change over to snow, but little if any accumulation is expected. By late night, as the low moves east of the area, pcpn will end in most if not all locations, and clouds will decrease from west to east. With the cloud cover decreasing the temps will quickly cool and areas near the I-25 corridor are expected to see temps drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s, thus a Freeze Warning is in effect from the Monument Hill area to the NM border. On Saturday, drier northwest flow aloft will be over the area and most locations will be dry. However, there is expected to be enough instability and moisture over the area for a few afternoon showers over and near the mtns. Temps will be warmer on Sat but will still generally be about 10 degrees below average. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri May 19 2017 Saturday night through Tuesday...Models continue to indicate an active pattern across the region through the first half of the week, as northwest flow aloft with multiple shortwaves stretches across Colorado. This will allow for scattered convection across the higher terrain, and isolated activity for much of the lower elevations, each day, though the highest potential for showers and thunderstorms will occur Sunday through Tuesday morning. A couple of northerly surges will drop cooler air south into the forecast area, one late Sunday and another late Monday. Expect max temps in the 60s and 70s on Sun, 60s to around 70F on Mon, then 50s and 60s for Tue. Wednesday through upper ridge builds into the desert southwest for Wed, providing for dry conditions and warming temps. The ridge edges to the east for Thu, allowing isolated mt convection during the aftn. On Fri the ridge moves east and westerly flow aloft pushes into the state, allowing for continued warming and isolated mt convection during the aftn and eve. Temps are expected to warm back into the 60s and 70s for Wed, then 70s to lower 80s for Thu and Fri. Moore && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri May 19 2017 There will be the potential for showers in the vicinity of KCOS and KPUB thru the evening hours. It`s possible KALS could also see a shower but chances are fairly low. Showers could at times bring a lower cloud deck that could be in the MVFR category. After about 05Z the clouds are expected to decrease. VFR conditions conditions are expected on Sat. There could be some afternoon showers near the mtns west of KCOS Sat afternoon. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Saturday for COZ084>088. && $$ UPDATE...Hodanish SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...28
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1122 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure off the southeast Atlantic Coast will continue to produce an unseasonably warm and humid southwest flow of air across the forecast area into tonight. This will combine with an approaching weak cold front to produce additional showers and storms especially over the mountains on Saturday. Unsettled weather will then continue through into early next week with shower chances again increasing ahead of another cold front arriving from the west by Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1115 PM EDT Friday... Upped pops over the west based on latest trends. High-res models/radar showing more agreement on nudging convection further southeast toward the SW Va mountains into the NC mountains overnight. Still should weaken with airmass stabilizingbut some decent instabilities remain south of line of convection in eastern KY toward the Cumberland Gap into the NC mountains. Expecting less thunder north of a Bluefield to Lexington VA line. Previous discussion from 1012 pm... A line of showers/thunderstorms shifting toward the Greenbrier/Summers County area. High-res models having a hard time keeping up with speed but have the general idea right of best threat of showers through the overnight to stay across the WV mountains into the Alleghanys and Mountain Empire. 00z RNK sounding showing SBCAPE of just under 1000 j/kg. RAP mesoanalysis indicating best CAPE across eastern KY south into NE TN. Storms over KY will have to be watched as they move into this unstable air through the next few hours, though with nighttime expect instability to weaken with time. Previous discussion from late afternoon... Overall shower/thunderstorm threat has ended, with lingering showers east of Staunton River SP and over the NC/TN border near Beech Mountain, NC. High-res models are keen on keeping most of the forecast area dry this evening, until convection upstream over northern KY/southern Ohio shifts east-southeast toward our WV mountains by midnight. Have updated pops to account for the little to no coverage, and may have to dry it even more per latest radar trends. Otherwise, forecast on track. Previous discussion from mid afternoon... Clusters of deeper convection continue to evolve mainly over southern/southwest sections in an area of convergence just south of a weak mid level wave passing to the north and on bottom of a weak residual surface trough. Latest short term models drive a loosely organized area of convection into eastern/southeast sections through late afternoon so upping pops for a few hours of likelys across the southern third into early evening. Otherwise still expecting coverage to fade after sunset if not sooner as best lift shifts back north closer to the surface cold front in the southern Ohio Valley. Some of this coverage may sneak back southeast into espcly northern portions of the area overnight but should be quite widely scattered at this point. However will leave in some low pops to cover this as well as for the potential to see another complex clip the northeast sections late. Should also see more patchy fog around espcly given coverage of convection from earlier. Lows in the muggy 60s overall. Front will gradually backdoor in from the northeast on Saturday but slower than earlier as models indicate building heights over top the low level cool pool that will attempt to slip back toward the Blue Ridge. This slower scenario would mean more instability developing ahead of the boundary espcly from just east of the Blue Ridge westward during the afternoon. Guidance shows a lobe of high 850 mb theta-e over the western half beneath good upper diffluence that could mean another round of more widespread showers and storms outside of the far northeast sections. Thus upped pops to higher chance/low likelys west and kept chance to low chance eastern sections. Expect low level northeast flow including lower dewpoints and stability to gradually shift west by late in the day but all dependent upon convective coverage and how much more it slows the boundary up. High temps quite tricky with potential for southern and southwest sections to zoom back into the 80s while the northeast remains stuck in the cooler 70s per latest warmer Mos. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Friday... Surface front should finally spill westward into far western sections Saturday night in the wake of earlier convection before being bumped back slowly east on Sunday as the main upper trough to the west heads northeast. May see a lull in overall rain coverage Saturday night with mainly low clouds possibly persisting Blue Ridge and some drying across the northeast. Kept in some chance pops mainly mountains for now with only spotty showers out east. Expect any significant cooling to stay just to the north although some dewpoint drying could occur southwest to the eastern slopes per latest Nam. Otherwise lows still muggy...mainly low to mid 60s. Surface cold front associated with the upper trough to the west will drift east Sunday with its axis of deeper moisture working into the mountains by later in the day. Guidance shows quite an instability gradient from stability within deeper northeast flow across eastern sections to modest Cape values over the west where will be in the convergence zone of the residual front and lift ahead of the cold front. Therefore going to a gradient of increasing likely pops from west to east over the mountains Sunday including some thunder to mainly lower shower chances in the east in the afternoon. Highs should be much cooler as the wedge and clouds remain in place resulting in highs mostly lower to mid 70s at this point. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 310 PM EDT Friday... 500 MB flattens during the first half of the week. Upper ridge remains over the southeast and southern Gulf of Mexico. A piece of the upper low redevelops and heads into the Ohio Valley by Thursday. ECMWF has best lift and good short wave crossing the Mid Atlantic region on Wednesday. A cold front passes through the area early Monday. A second front crosses through on Wednesday leading in a colder air mass over the area for Wednesday and Thursday. ECMWF shows the potential for some gusty winds behind Wednesday`s front. Expecting showers and thunderstorms along each of the front with the potential for heavy rain. Overall troffing and periods of rain will result in below normal temperatures for much of the week. Have trended toward cooler daytime temperatures for Monday through Friday. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 710 PM EDT Friday... Quiet evening aviation wise now that convection has exited east. Will have to watch for fog formation overnight, especially where it rained. However, next upstream wave will bring some clouds back into the mix overnight which may hamper fog formation, or keeping it from getting dense. Confidence high that IFR vsbys will occur at BCB/LWB with MVFR LYH/DAN. Frontal driven storms over the Ohio Valley this evening may shift to near BLF/LWB after 04z, but confidence is low, so not adding them to the tafs. The front is forecast to enter the forecast area Saturday, entering the area backdoor style with a northeast push of wind Saturday and Saturday night. Models suggest that drier air may now be slower to push west of the Blue Ridge during the afternoon so added convection resulting in sub-VFR could occur after 18z, so added VCTS at LWB/BLF/BCB. May see some MVFR cigs in ROA/LYH once backdoor front move southwest. Extended Aviation Discussion... The front will then stall over or just south of the region early Sunday. With the front over the area, there will be an opportunity for added showers and thunderstorms, especially during the peak heating hours of the day over the western mountains by late Sunday. However expect combo of low clouds within the wedge and showers over the west to result in sub-VFR for most of Sunday. More widespread showers and storms may occur ahead of the front Sunday night with added poor flying conditions overnight. The front will cross the forecast area Monday, dry weather returning Monday night into Tuesday. Another front may then bring the next round of showers and subsequent MVFR by Wednesday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/PM/WP NEAR TERM...JH/WP SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...JH/PM/WP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1009 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 .DISCUSSION... The Ern/Srn OK MCS has begun to shift E this evening, but still remains ahead of a cold front analyzed from near a PNC, to just W of OKC, to SPS and SNK line as of 0230Z. The mesoanalysis depicts moderate MLCapes still in place ahead of the MCS over N TX/SE OK/Wrn AR, with MLCapes of 2000-2500 J/Kg where lower 70 dewpoints have advected back N in wake of the retreated morning mesoscale bndry from this morning`s MCS which diminished just N of the forecast area. The 00Z KSHV raob depicts that the strong capping inversion evident just 24 hrs ago has eroded, with the KFWD raob weakly capped by more unstable under the presence of stronger low level shear. The short term progs do suggest that a 30-40kt Srly LLJ will develop over the next few hours ahead of the MCS over E TX/SW AR, which is supported by the latest KSHV VAD which depicts 30-35kts having already developed in the lowest 5kft. This should aid in convergence along/ahead of the approaching MCS, before the LLJ begins to veer more SW by 09Z over NE TX/SE OK/SW AR as the available CAPE continues to diminish as well. Thus, a severe threat mainly in the form of damaging winds with locally heavy rainfall will be possible across the NW zones after 06Z, and have inserted mention for these areas in the forecast update this evening. Still not quite sure how far SSE the MCS will be able to build before it weakens late, with the HRRR again playing catchup with the ongoing convection, and the 18Z/00Z NAM much too slow. Have tailored the forecast closer to the GFS, which to some extent with the HRRR, does allow the convection to backbuild SSW along the veering LLJ once the more diffluent flow aloft ahead of the N-S upper trough begins to pivot more ENE into NE TX/SE OK by/before daybreak Saturday. For the update...did scale back pops especially over Deep E TX/N LA, but did retain likely pops for the NW zones, tapering pops down to chance from/NW of a JSO to GGG to just E of a TXK line. The MCS should continue its weakening trend even beyond 12Z Saturday, with additional convection likely developing throughout the day along the lingering mesoscale bndrys and along the attendant cold front set to enter the region Saturday afternoon during peak heating. However, given the lack of significant deep lyr shear, the convection should be sct/multicellular in nature and outflow driven, almost typical of summertime convection. Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly. 15 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 711 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017/ AVIATION... For the ArkLaTex, VFR this evening with a few showers ending soon. Overnight MVFR with IFR tempo for low cigs at daybreak, but light BR possible where fair. S winds 5-10KT with cold front approaching the winds will become SW then NW during afternoon from W to E with fropa. Aloft, S/SW 20-40KT. Expect shwrs and Tstms to build early and expand in coverage with heating, especially along frontal boundary with the push Eastward slow into the overnight. N/NE winds expected for Sunday with good weather at most terminals. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 74 83 65 79 / 20 70 70 50 MLU 73 85 67 79 / 10 50 70 60 DEQ 68 79 55 79 / 60 70 20 10 TXK 72 80 60 77 / 40 70 40 20 ELD 72 80 62 77 / 20 70 60 50 TYR 73 82 62 79 / 40 70 50 30 GGG 73 83 63 79 / 30 70 60 40 LFK 73 87 68 82 / 20 70 70 50 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 15