Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/17/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
956 PM EDT Tue May 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly sunny skies this afternoon with seasonable temperatures,
although clouds will gradually increase this evening as a warm front
progresses northward across the region. A few sprinkles will be
possible for areas well north of Albany. Then mid summer-like warmth
will occur across the entire area Wednesday and Thursday, as a large
ridge of high pressure builds into the region. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms will gradually increase later Thursday into
Thursday night ahead of a cold front approaching from the upper
Great Lakes.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some thicker clouds just north of the U.S./Canadian border that
are building across northern NY with a few sprinkles up there.
Based on satellite trends, just some intervals of mid clouds
over most of the region except again the northern areas having
the potential sprinkles. Temperatures are slow to fall but as
the clouds move out by daybreak, temperatures should fall right
about to forecasted levels.
Just some minor adjustments to sky cover and temperatures
through tonight based on current data and trends. The previous
AFD has some more details and is below...
The remnant cloud deck is located north of a northward moving warm
front, that will continue to progress across the entire area
tonight. Hi-res models such as the HRRR and 4 km NAM indicating a
few sprinkles or very light showers for areas well north of Albany
later this evening to shortly after midnight. Will only mention
slight chance pops for this activity. Otherwise, just a period of
increasing clouds will occur. Low temperatures should be milder than
recent nights with the warm front and associated cloud cover moving
through, with upper 40s to mid 50s expected.
Clouds will already start to decrease by sunrise Wednesday, as the
warm front moves north of the region. Mostly sunny skies expected by
mid to late morning across the entire area. With 850 mb temps
forecast to warm to around +16C and southwest low level flow
increases to 10 to 20 mph, significant surface warming will occur
with temperatures soaring well into the 80s for valley locations.
High temps will be close to record highs...refer to Climate section.
A strong mid level capping inversion due to the building upper level
ridge will inhibit the potential for any convection, so will
continue to mention dry conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry conditions will persist Wednesday night with the upper level
ridge in place. It will be a very mild summer-like night across the
region, with minimum temperatures forecast to be in the upper 50s
across the higher terrain to lower/mid 60s in the valleys.
Thursday is expected to be an even warmer day, with 850 mb temps
climbing to around +18C and enough sunshine into the afternoon to
result in maximum potential for surface heating. A continued breezy
southwest low level flow will result in good mixing and temperatures
reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s for most valley locations.
Higher terrain areas should even reach the lower to mid 80s. Surface
dewpoints will start to creep up in the upper 50s to even some lower
60s, making it feel slightly humid along with the hot temperatures.
Despite the hot temperatures, daily records are also warmer than
Wednesday, so we are expected to fall just shy. For a list of record
highs, refer to Climate section. Chances for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will start to increase during the mid to
late afternoon for areas north and west of the Capital District
ahead of a pre-frontal trough approaching from the Great Lakes.
Models have trended slower with this system, so will only mention
chance pops for the western Dacks/Mohawk valley and slight chance
farther south and east. If a few thunderstorms can develop during
peak heating, will have to watch for some stronger storms given
ample deep layer shear and fairly steep mid level lapse rates.
Models may be overdone with magnitude of instability though, since
actual dewpoints should be slightly lower due to mixing.
Will continue chances for showers and some thunderstorms Thursday
night, especially during the evening. The main question will be how
much instability will be left by the time the pre-frontal trough
moves through in terms of intensity and duration of storms. Will
continue to mention thunder, but the potential for stronger storms
appear less likely. It will be another very mild night well ahead of
a cold front approaching from southeast Canada.
The actual cold front looks to move through from northwest to
southeast across the area during the day Friday. Isolated to
scattered showers expected with this frontal passage and will
mention slight chance of thunder for southern areas with some minor
instability. Winds will shift the northwest and increase behind the
cold front. Some gusts around 25-30 mph expected Friday afternoon.
Temperatures will be cooler than Thursday, but still above normal
for mid May.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will be in control at the start of the period. Low
pressure in the center of the nation on Saturday will track
northeast through the northern Great Lakes through the weekend,
lifting a warm front across our forecast area Sunday night, with a
cold front following from the west on Monday. This will result in a
chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday night, but particularly
on Monday. Showers will linger Monday night, and Tuesday should be
dry again.
High temperatures will range from around 60 degrees in the mountains
Saturday through Monday...to around 70 degrees or so in areas down
the Hudson Valley. The Hudson Valley will show a slight warming
trend on Tuesday while the Adirondacks will undergo a slight
cooldown. Overnight lows will range anywhere from the upper 30s to
lower 50s Friday and Saturday nights, while ranging from the mid or
lower 40s to the mid 50s Sunday and Monday nights. The highs
represent values that are about normal, while the lows vary from
near to slightly above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will continuing to drift south and east of the
region into tonight. A warm front will move through tonight, as
the surface high will continue to build in from off the Mid
Atlantic Coast tomorrow.
VFR conditions expected for the TAF period ending at
00Z/Thursday for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. Mid and high clouds will
continue to drift into the region into tonight ahead of the
warm front. There could be some scattered to occasional broken
clouds at about a 5-6 kft AGL deck between 06Z-09Z from KALB-
KPSF northward to KGFL. As this batch of clouds erodes and lifts
northward, the skies will clear by the late morning WED with
just a few to scattered cumulus and few to scattered cirrus
around with the ridge building in from the south.
The winds will be from the west at 5-12 kts into this evening.
They will become light to calm between 00Z-04Z. The winds will
increase from the south to southwest at 6-12 kts by the late
Wednesday morning with some gusts to around 20 kts at KALB.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mostly sunny skies this afternoon with seasonable temperatures,
although clouds will gradually increase this evening as a warm front
progresses northward across the region. A few sprinkles will be
possible for areas well north of Albany. Then mid summer-like warmth
will occur across the entire area Wednesday and Thursday, as a large
ridge of high pressure builds into the region. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms will gradually increase later Thursday into
Thursday night ahead of a cold front approaching from the upper
Great Lakes.
Relative humidity values will increase to around 80 to 100 percent
tonight, dropping to minimum values of 30 to 40 percent on
Wednesday. RH values will increase to between 85 and 100 percent
Wednesday night.
Winds tonight will be variable around 5 mph tonight, becoming
southwest and increasing to 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph on
Wednesday. Winds Wednesday night will be southwest at 5 to 10
mph.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through at least Thursday
morning, as a strong ridge of high pressure aloft builds into the
region. The next chance of rainfall will be Thursday afternoon into
Friday with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
associated with a cold front passage. The best chances will be north
and west of Albany. Basin-average rainfall will be generally light,
as activity will be convective. Local amounts of up to a half inch
are possible where thunderstorms move through, but will be sporadic.
Dry weather is then forecast through the upcoming weekend, with
showers returning early next week.
River flows will gradually decrease through the week due to mainly
dry conditions and temperatures warming considerably.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
845 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017
For mid-evening update have pushed chances for showers a bit
further north and added the potential for a thunderstorm. Latest
RAP analysis places an area of weak cape generally over the Lake
Sakakawea region where a weak cell has developed. Do not expect
severe out of this given the weak instability. This should
diminish, though, over the next few hours as indicated by the
latest guidance.
UPDATE Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017
Main change for evening update was to add patchy fog generally
along and north of Highway 200 as latest run of high res-models
continues to indicate some fog developing after midnight as cooler
airmass backs its way into the area. Have also increased cloud
cover going into this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017
Showers and thunderstorms have come to an end across western and
central North Dakota. A few isolated showers are possible again tonight
across southern North Dakota with an upper level jet remaining
nearby, but the majority of the area will remain dry.
Cool northeast winds will bring in upper 30s and low 40s
temperatures tonight.
Wednesday looks dry and breezy as another system develops across
the Central Plains and the pressure gradient steepens.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017
Cool and dry through the rest of the week. Latest model runs keep
the main storm track south of North Dakota through the week. This
will keep all but extreme southern North Dakota free from any
precipitation chances. Much colder air from Canada will move in
and we`ll likely see frost two or three nights this week as
overnight lows dip in the low 30s. Temperatures should moderate
back into the 40s for lows and 60s for highs by the end of the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017
MVFR cigs over the southern James River Valley are expected to
improve to VFR this evening, while other areas remain VFR. Cigs
are expected to diminish towards early morning, decreasing to MVFR
with localized IFR. Also, some patchy fog may develop late tonight
into early Wednesday morning over portions of the area.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
634 PM MDT Tue May 16 2017
.UPDATE...
Latest BLX radar shows area of showers with some embedded
lightning moving eastward to Treasure and northern Rosebud
Counties. Current mesoanalysis shows surface based capes on the
order of 200-500 j/kg, enough for isolated TS this evening for
maybe a few more hours. Recent HRRR runs show area of showers
getting to Miles City a bit later this evening, and this seems
reasonable as southeasterly low level jet increases and elevated
instability remains in this region. Have adjusted pops/wx a bit to
the east. Otherwise, stronger ascent associated with Pac NW low
increases thru the night, with greatest pops in our west
overnight. Forecast has this covered well. JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...valid for Wed and Thu...
Main points for this forecast package...upgrading western
mountains to Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Wednesday through
Thursday. Leaving Winter Storm Watch in place for Big Horn Mtns as
best upslope does not develop until late Wednesday and freezing
level not progged to drop below mountain tops until Wednesday
evening. We did thus change the valid period for the watch over
the Big Horns from noon Wednesday through Thursday. Main
precipitation event is tomorrow and tomorrow night as east to
northeast flow links up at all levels for deep upslope and
orographics.
Powerful upper low over Pacific NW is set to drop into southern
Idaho by morning. This will draw both Pacific and Gulf moisture
into our region. While precip water values are not that
impressive (0.75 - 0.90), the excellent dynamics associated with
the system (divergence, vorticity and strong frontogenesis)
squeeze it out of the atmosphere in a very efficient manner
according to the models. The strong upslope into the higher
terrain no doubt helps a great deal. The winds in the mid levels
will back a great deal overnight and into Wednesday which will
limit the snowfall in the high country as different facing slopes
share the precipitation. By Wednesday evening though the east to
northeast flow deepens a great deal over the area and the freezing
level drops as low as 5500 ft. We may actually need snow
advisories for the Beartooth and Red Lodge foothills tomorrow
night. This is something we will monitor over the next few
shifts. Low drops down toward the four corners region of Colorado
by late Thursday, shifting the moisture and dynamics south of our
region.
Hydro concerns...We anticipate some minor flooding along smaller
creeks and streams, mainly in the foothills and near by areas.
We will will issue flood advisories as necessary as things unfold.
BT
.LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...
Models and ensembles were in good agreement overall with NNW flow
affecting the area through much of the extended period. There were
some differences in the timing and placement of energy moving
through the flow as would be expected. For PoPs, used blended
guidance to compromise between these differences.
Upper low will be over the four-corners region on Friday, then
shift E into the central plains by 12Z Saturday. Kept PoPs
confined to the southern tier of the area on Fri., then dried out
Fri. night. The models had a shortwave pushing SE through ID
Saturday night, and another wave moving S from Canada into the
region on Sunday into Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be over the central and western parts of the area on Sat.,
and precipitation chances will overspread the entire area on
Sunday and continue through Monday. The models had larger spreads
in the timing of energy moving through the area on Tuesday. Kept a
chance for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the
period. Models did show temperature differences through much of
the period. Blended guidance showed a warming trend through
Sunday, with temperatures topping out in the 60s to lower 70s.
Similar temperatures continued for the rest of the period. Arthur
&&
.AVIATION...
For the evening, scattered showers w/ isold TS will affect the
area, with local/brief MVFR and occasional mountain obscurations.
Shower coverage will increase from KBIL westward overnight as a
strong storm system approaches from the west. Expect mountains to
become mostly obscured late tonight thru Wednesday. Flight
conditions at lower elevations will deteriorate as precipitation
intensifies thru the period, with widespread MVFR or lower flight
conditions tomorrow, especially west of KMLS-K4BQ. There will be a
few embedded thunderstorms on Wednesday as well, producing
locally heavy rainfall. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046/050 040/053 037/061 042/066 045/068 046/066 045/069
59/T 95/R 11/B 12/T 33/T 33/T 23/T
LVM 038/046 035/049 030/059 036/064 038/064 039/065 039/069
59/R 97/O 11/B 13/T 34/T 44/T 33/T
HDN 045/056 041/056 037/063 039/068 042/070 044/068 042/069
37/T 74/R 11/B 12/T 23/T 33/T 33/T
MLS 048/060 040/059 038/062 039/067 044/072 046/068 045/068
23/R 21/B 01/B 01/U 12/T 22/T 23/T
4BQ 044/056 039/055 035/057 035/064 041/069 043/066 042/067
34/R 52/R 12/R 11/B 13/T 33/T 34/T
BHK 043/054 034/055 033/056 034/063 038/068 041/064 039/064
11/N 10/B 01/B 11/B 13/T 33/T 35/T
SHR 040/053 037/046 032/053 034/061 038/063 041/061 039/064
38/T 98/O 33/R 12/T 34/T 44/T 33/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Storm Warning in effect from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 PM
MDT Thursday FOR ZONES 67-68.
WY...Winter Storm Watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday afternoon FOR ZONE 98.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
900 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017
A very mild night is on tap. Mostly clear skies would usually set
the stage for ideal radiational cooling conditions. However, steady
southerly winds of 10 to 15 mph will help to produce low temps in
the mid 60s. Storm potential in central Illinois looks to be
limited to very late tonight, or even after sunrise between 6-7am
and mainly west of the Illinois river. The latest RAP keeps all
our counties dry until tomorrow afternoon. The latest HRRR brings
showers into our far NW counties between 12z and 14z, then
indicates dry conditions until afternoon. Have diminished the
PoP numbers and coverage in our NW counties late tonight, with
more evidence than not that precip will be delayed until after
sunrise in our counties.
The vigorous low still looks on track to eject into western Iowa
late tomorrow and into N Wisconsin Wed night. A capping inversion
will limit storm development until later tomorrow afternoon. If
any convection is able to bust the cap, severe potential is there
for some large hail and damaging winds.
Overall forecast had a decent handle on expected conditions. Main
updates were to late night PoPs/Weather. Trimmed a degree from
overnight lows based on afternoon dewpoints. Updated forecast info
is already available.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017
Unseasonably mild condtions expected through the period as
deep/strong south to southwest flow persists across the region.
The local airmass remains relatively stable until Wednesday
afternoon, which should preclude much in the way of a
precipitation risk for much of the period. However, can`t rule out
a stray decaying shower or storm west of the Illinois river in
the morning pushing in from upstream.
Shower/storm chances increase in the afternoon, especially across
the western portion of the forecast area, as dynamic forcing
increases with the passage of a vigorous wave. This wave is
currently over the southwest U.S. and is progged to eject
northeast shortly. Bulk shear values over western sections of the
forecast area Wednesday afternoon/evening may exceed 60 kts with
the passage of the wave, and combine with CAPE values of at least
1500 J/KG. Forecast soundings suggest at least some weak capping
for much of the day, and most of the high-resolution models
suggest little in the way of rainfall. However, the WRF-ARW does
generate some strong storms along/west of the Illinois River
during the afternoon/evening with the passage of the best forcing.
If storms materialize, there will certainly be a severe storm
threat in this area.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017
Much of Wednesday night through Thursday night should be
relatively dry between the initial strong wave and the next one.
This second wave is progged to be moving more slowly and will push
toward the region Friday into Saturday. This wave should be
accompanied by more widespread rainfall across the area.
Differences remain in the exact timing/track of this wave,
resulting in lingering uncertainty with the forecast details.
However, the operational ECMWF is finally trending faster and
toward the model consensus. If this faster trend continues in the
ECMWF, we`ll likely be able to remove the lingering low-end PoPs
from Sunday.
Once the second wave departs, the dry weather should linger
through Monday. Then, a weaker and fast moving disturbance will
bring a renewed threat of showers/storms by Tuesday.
Temperatures will average well above normal until the more
widespread rainfall arrives by late this week. Readings will cool
to more normal levels, or even a little cooler than normal, behind
the main system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 705 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017
Strong low level jet flows will become established this evening,
setting the stage for LLWS conditions at all TAF sites. Speed
shear looks to be the primary concern, as winds will be S-SW
through the low to mid levels. Winds will increase by 14-15z
tomorrow, with mixing heights to 3-4K feet dragging 40kt gusts to
the surface. A windy day is likely tomorrow.
Low pressure will deepen in the Plains late tonight, with a wave
of storms reaching into far NW Illinois between 12z-15z. However,
it appears that those storms should remain west of Peoria, so did
not include any precip in the morning.
There are varying differences in the afternoon storm progression
scenario, with a couple of high res models showing a line of
showers/storms between 21z-24z, while others keep the cap in
place. Introduced a VCTS at PIA and SPI during the afternoon. Kept
VFR conditions through the entire TAF period for now.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Shimon
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
805 PM EDT Tue May 16 2017
.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA moving offshore Gulf coast with VCTS
lingering through 01Z at KAPF until remaining activity dies.
Satellite and radar suggest Atlc streamer bands may periodically
affect all east coast sites, so have included VCSH through
overnight hours. TSRA can`t be ruled out, but threat for now is
low. East flow remains 8-12kts overnight, picking up to 12-17kts
after 13Z with gusts 25-30kts possible through the afternoon. A
few SHRA along east coast through midday, with best TSRA threat
over interior and at KAPF after 19Z.
&&
.UPDATE...
Building surface high pressure west of Bermuda will maintain
easterly flow tonight, with brisk winds forecast along the
immediate Atlantic coast. Latest NWS radar indicates moderate to
heavy showers moving westward over the Gulf Coast waters. However,
short term models prog this activity to dissipate through the
night. However, this flow pattern will allow hit and miss showers
to continue along the east coast metro region through daybreak.
Updated the PoPs grid to show an overnight drying trend in the
interior and 25 to 40 PoPs along the east coast. Otherwise,
besides updating short term winds, all other variables appeared on
track.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 453 PM EDT Tue May 16 2017/
DISCUSSION...This afternoon through tonight: Latest water vapor
imagery shows a large dome of high pressure ridge dominating the
eastern CONUS. Surface pressure analysis indicates strong surface
high pressure centered over the western Atlantic, a few hundred
miles off of the Carolinas. South Florida, on southern periphery
of this feature, has experienced persistent easterly flow through
the day. Winds have generally been sustained 10 to 15 mph along
the east coast metro region and slightly weaker in the interior.
Meanwhile, a weak Gulf sea breeze has brushed the immediate Gulf
Coast. Moderate to heavy showers with the occasional lightning
strikes have initiated along this boundary line between the two
sea breezes. Short term models, including the HRRR and hi- res WRF
weaken the activity this evening as it pushes westward, over the
Gulf of Mexico. Island banding, noted on NWS radar, has developed
from convergence on the leeward side of Grand Bahama. These
streamer showers and storms will continue drift westward into Palm
Beach county through this evening, but generally dissipate
shortly after hitting land. Model guidance continues to indicate
shower development over the Atlantic coastal waters and adjacent
east coast metro region through tonight.
Wednesday through this weekend: As high pressure establishes
itself near Bermuda by mid to late week, easterly winds will
become breezy, especially along the immediate Atlantic coast.
Both the GFS and ECMWF show moisture from the northern Carribean
and Bahama region slowly creeping north and northwestward into
our CWA. Friday through early this weekend, moisture will further
deepen with the GFS forecast PW reaching over 1.75 inches. Diurnal
heating (generating instability), combined with moistening from
the surface to around 10000 ft agl, will allow for periodic
showers and thunderstorms. As with a typical summer pattern (east
southeast flow), showers will be most likely occur along the east
coast during the nights and early mornings, while shower and
thunderstorms chances will be highest over the interior and Gulf
Coast during the afternoons. This pattern appears to continue
through the weekend and into early next week. Maximum temperatures
will remain around average for this time of year with mid to
upper 80s along the Atlantic coast, to around 90 over the interior
and Gulf Coast.
MARINE...Over the next several days, surface high pressure
building near Bermuda will allow for easterly winds to strengthen
across the coastal waters. Thus, small craft should exercise
caution through the rest of the work week. Expect seas building to
3 to 6 feet along the Gulf Stream and over the Atlantic waters.
There will be a chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms through the period.
BEACH FORECAST...Increasing east/southeasterly winds will
increase the rip current risk Moderate through tonight for the
Atlantic beaches. Slightly stronger winds on Wednesday may
increase the rip current risk further to High for the Atlantic
beaches. With persistent easterly flow, an elevated rip current
risk may continue well into the weekend. &&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 79 86 77 87 / 30 30 20 30
Fort Lauderdale 78 86 79 87 / 40 40 20 30
Miami 77 86 78 88 / 40 40 20 30
Naples 72 91 72 93 / 30 30 10 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
UPDATE...27/JT
AVIATION...88/ALM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
841 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 841 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017
We are getting into a lull between waves here, with all eyes now
on activity coming up out of Omaha. This activity will ride up a
front that extends from near Sioux City, Albert Lea, and Hayward.
Expect the storms coming out of Omaha to ride up along the front
toward western WI through the night. 1000-2000 j/kg of MUCAPE and
50 kts of effective shear will lead to a continued risk of mainly
hail with elevated storms through the night. Given recent rains,
will keep the flash flood watch going, though CAMs have backed
down some on the heavy rain threat tonight.
Tomorrow, expect a lull in precip during the morning, before the
stacked low approaches from the SW in the afternoon. We`ll have a
warm front draped across the area and think we will once again
have a severe to watch during the afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017
The main concern in the short term is the potential for heavy rain
and flooding tonight along the boundary that is forecast to be
draped from southern Minnesota through west central Wisconsin.
This boundary will be fairly stationary and could see continued
convective development along it with multiple rounds of 2-3"/hr
rainfall rates. There is also a severe threat, with the main
concern being large hail.
Early afternoon water vapor imagery with RAP13 500mb heights and
winds showed southwest flow across the Midwest with a few subtle
perturbations in the flow. SPC Mesoanalysis identified around 2000
J/kg of MLCAPE across the region, with deep layer shear of close
to 40 kts. This will be sufficient for a few supercells capable of
producing large hail with a secondary threat for damaging wind.
The higher LCLs of 1250 to 1500m help limit the tornado threat.
The main concern is heavy rain as an inverted trough of low
pressure remains stationary over the region. A stationary front as
seen in the H925 winds and isotherms will stall out across the
region as the low level jet strengthens overnight. HiRes models
are in good agreement with storms develop along this boundary.
These models tend to lift the storms northwest toward Mankato and
the Twin Cities metro, but given the lack of strong forcing feel
that the storms will remain closer to the boundary. The ECMWF does
the best job of depicting this scenario. Storms will be moving
progressively northeast, but this is parallel to the boundary so
should see continued redevelopment and potential for training
thunderstorms. For that reason issued a flash flood watch
overnight.
On Wednesday the parent upper level wave will lift northeast cross
the region, and this will drive the front to the northwest. This
could lead to another are of heavy rain and flash flooding, mainly
along a line from Redwood Falls through St Cloud. Did not
address this secondary risk of heavy rain with any headlines
since it could change depending on how tonights convection
unfolds.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017
Picking up the forecast tomorrow evening, the main low will finally
be arriving with widespread rain ongoing. By 00Z, the low looks to
be near far northwest Iowa with the warm front extending to the
northeast. Most of the precipitation at this time will be across
the deformation zone lifting north of the front. The surface low
will track east-northeast, staying south of the metro and heading
through the Eau Claire area. The instability will be confined to
the warm sector, so thunder chances will quickly diminish once the
wind direction shifts from southerly to northeasterly flow.
After that front drops through by Thursday, a much cooler several
days are expected as we remain in cool northerly flow with a
canadian high pushing south into the Upper Midwest. However, the
next storm system will be taking shape along the lee of the rockies
as a norther deep upper trough pushes through the four corners
region. This system will lift northeast rather quickly and move
directly through our area Saturday into Sunday. Confidence has
increased in widespread rains for Saturday in southern MN and there
will be a chance for thunder in the warm sector, but instability
looks rather limited so not expecting particularly strong storms
with this. Temperatures will likely be held in the 50s and with wet
weather most of the weekend, quite a different weekend compared to
last weekend.
That system lifts out by Monday morning with warm air advection
expected during the day Monday. Highs should recover to around 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 841 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017
Round 1 of precip will clear EAU by 3z, the break will be short
though as the next round of showers is quickly coming out of
Omaha. This will continue to head up along the front stretched out
from NW IA up into Menomonie, WI. So EAU is at the greatest risk
from getting hit by round 2, though the HRRR continues to show
storms building back up into RWF/MSP/RNH. Much of Wed morning
looks dry before the upper low brings round 3 of showers and
storms Wednesday afternoon. West of the front, we expect at least
MVFR, possibly IFR cigs to form after midnight, with low clouds
hanging with us Wednesday as a surface low works in during the
afternoon.
KMSP...Expect storms to return between 5z and 7z and will last to
between 10z and 12z. Will likely have a break in the precip much
of Wednesday morning before shra/tsra threat returns during the
afternoon. Lower confidence on the cig forecast, though soundings
show lots of low level moisture, so followed the idea of the LAMP
with MVFR cigs developing overnight.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA possible early. Wind N at 10G15kt
Fri...VFR with MVFR/-TSRA possible in afternoon. Wind NE at 10kt
Sat...MVFR/RA with IFR possible. Wind E at 10G20kt
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for WIZ016-024>028.
MN...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ077-078-084-
085-092-093.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MPG
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
900 PM EDT Tue May 16 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 413 PM EDT TUE MAY 16 2017
Convection that move across southern Wisconsin last night kept the
warm front well south of the area today; however, a few rounds of
light rain were able to pass through Upper Michigan as weak surface
trough lifted across the area. Through the afternoon hours, skies
did gradually clear across central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
ahead of another surface trough allowing for SBCAPE values ranging
from 500 to 3000 J/kg, per the current RAP analysis. Convergence has
increased along the surface trough/warm front across central
Minnesota up into northwest Wisconsin, likely due to differential
heating processes, where satellite trends show quasi-agitated
cumulus in an unstable and uncapped airmass.
The main concern this evening and overnight will be the development
of showers and thunderstorms as the warm front tries to lift
northeast across portions of Upper Michigan. The main threat for
severe storms this evening will be across southwest portions of
Upper Michigan, where a pocket of 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE is
progged to clip the region. If this instability can make it this far
north, the combination of instability and the 0-6km shear of 50-60
knots will be sufficient for any thunderstorms that do develop to
become severe. Storm mode is a bit more tricky, along the warm front
with the shear oriented parallel to the front, expect storms that
develop to be rather messy. Further south, with shear oriented quasi-
perpendicular to the surface trough, especially along the triple
point where the surface trough meets the warm front, wouldn`t be
surprised if storms remain more organized. In fact, a few high-res
models develop a cluster of storms across northwest Wisconsin, and
then grow up scale into a small MCS, as the surface trough continues
to push east across the area. The main threat this evening are
expected to be hail and damaging winds.
Later tonight, as moisture transport continues to advect over the
area and the surface trough slowly slides east across central Upper
Michigan , the lingering elevated instability and 30-50 knots of 1-
7km shear should be enough to maintain stronger updrafts. Therefore,
wouldn`t be surprised if strong storms linger through the overnight
hours.
As we progress through the morning hours on Wednesday, expect a
break in activity as brief upper-level ridging moves overhead and
the surface trough will begin to stall out across central portions
of the area. As the main upper-level trough begins to lift out of
the central Plains, a few subtle waves will lift across the area and
moisture transport really begins to ramp up. This will bring another
chance for showers and thunderstorms. The CAPE gradient on the back
side of the surface trough drops off rather quickly; therefore, the
best chance to see any additional thunderstorm activity will be
across central portions of Upper Michigan; however, how far north
the gradient gets on Wednesday will depend highly on how overnight
convection evolves. The shear however, still looks quite impressive
on Wednesday.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 439 PM EDT TUE MAY 16 2017
An active pattern is setting up for the Great Lakes, somewhat
reminiscent of the active pattern that led to much above normal pcpn
across the fcst area during Apr. The main difference from Apr will
be that the wet pattern over the next 5 days will be more
transitional rather than being stable/persistent. Trof currently
over the western CONUS will slowly shift e to the central CONUS this
weekend then to the Great Lakes/Mississippi Valley where it will
likely hang up during next week in response to the establishment of
a ridge/positive height anomaly along the w coast of N America. The
trof will consist of two significant pieces of energy, one currently
over AZ and the other, very impressive looking, upstream over
western WA. The first will lift out, reaching the Upper Great Lakes
on Thu. The second will drop into the central/southern Rockies by
Thu then lift into the western Great Lakes late this weekend. The
first wave will offer the potential of a more significant, organized
hvy pcpn event for the Upper Great Lakes later Wed into Wed night.
After a dry period Fri, the second wave will bring another round of
pcpn for the weekend. As for temps, after a brief preview of
warm/more humid summer type weather, cool weather/blo normal temps
will return in the wake of the first wave passing Wed/Thu.
Progression of the mean trof to the Great Lakes/Mississippi Valley
early next week will then work to maintain a blo normal temp regime
for the fcst area thru next week. After the wet period thru the
weekend, pcpn next week will be more uncertain and will depend on
the structure of the trof over the area and shortwaves dropping into
it. Right now, it does not look like there will be any widespread
significant pcpn events, but rather periodic lighter pcpn.
Beginning Wed night/Thu...vigorous, but weakening shortwave, will be
approaching Upper MI Wed evening and passing across the area Thu
morning/early aftn. Associated sfc low pres will track along a sw-ne
oriented frontal boundary extending somewhere across the se half of
Upper MI. As in previous days, this still points toward the nw half
of Upper MI for the area to see widespread mdt/hvy rainfall.
Combination of fgen, vigorous deep layer forcing per q-vectors,
diffluent flow aloft with some coupling of upper jets, and
precipitable water upwards of 1.5 inches (250+pct of normal) feeding
across frontal boundary will support a good potential of mdt/hvy
rainfall. Certainly could see widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall with
some local 3 inch amounts across roughly the nw half of Upper MI.
With best overlap of wettest soil conditions and potential hvy
rainfall over the far w, Gogebic/Ontonagon counties, a flash flood
watch will be carried thru Thu morning. Instability is somewhat
uncertain Wed night, but it appears there may be around 1000j/kg or
so of mlcape along/ahead of frontal boundary with at least 40kt of
deep layer shear, which will support the potential of isold svr
storms near the front at least during the evening hrs over s central
Upper MI. Showers will continue thru Thu morning then diminish/end
during the aftn/early evening, holding on longest e and in the n
wind upslope areas. Thu will turn much cooler across the area as low
pres/cold front exit. In fact, temps across the w and n may hold to
or fall to the upper 30s/lower 40s during the day under a blustery n
wind. If clouds clear out w during the aftn, there will be some temp
recovery. Under clearing skies/diminishing winds, temps will likely
fall to around freezing over much of the interior w and central Thu
night.
Fri...models have moved toward a more similar solution with respect
to lead energy ejecting from the Rockies trof as the GFS/CMC have
trended toward the consistently drier ECMWF scenario in showing sfc
high pres and a very dry air mass dominating the fcst area and
preventing any pcpn from lead energy. It will be a cool day with
Lake Superior reinforcing sfc high pres and northeasterly winds off
the lake. Expect highs ranging from the lower 40s lakeside to mid
50s interior w.
Over the weekend...details of the trof and energy lifting into the
western Great Lakes are still not well agreed upon by medium range
guidance. CMC is now much slower, not bringing shra into the fcst
area until Sat night, whereas the GFS/ECMWF bring shra into the area
during the day Sat or as early as Fri night per ECMWF. Models have
also overall trended toward a more nw track since yesterday,
bringing the low across western Upper MI or even western Lake
Superior, which impacts temps and pcpn fcst. If the low track stays
se of the fcst area as it appeared in older guidance, it will be a
cool weekend, especially chilly near Lake Superior. If the low track
is farther nw as newer guidance mostly suggests, Sun could turn
warmer with dry slotting at least across the central and e. Given
the model differences and lack of good run-to-run consistency, a
general model consensus will be utilized. While timing could change,
strong push of isentropic ascent ahead of the approaching wave
should lead to band of shra spreading n across the area on Sat.
Heavier pcpn will likely again focus into western Upper MI where
stronger deep layer forcing is indicated. Shra will then become more
scattered into Sat night and may end on Sun across the central and e
if the more recent nw track verifies.
Mon/Tue...there is considerable uncertainty in the
evolution/structure of the trof that will be setting up over the
Great Lakes/Mississippi Valley next week. Today`s 12z GFS/CMC are
sharper with this troffing over the area, including next shortwave
dropping into the trof, which could result in isold/sct -shra both
Mon and Tue. ECMWF suggests drier conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 824 PM EDT TUE MAY 16 2017
The combination of warmer and more humid air across the area and
rain from showers this evening should lead to cigs/vsbys lowering to
MVFR at IWD and CMX later this evening and to LIFR and possibly
VLIFR late tonight as winds shift more westerly (onshore) behind
passing trough/cold front. There wl also be a period of llws
especially at SAW tngt under a strengthening llj ahead of the
approaching cold fnt. With nocturnal cooling at SAW, some low
clds/MVFR cigs wl probably impact that site late tonight into Wed
morning and conditions will likely continue to fall to IFR at SAW
especially if winds shift northerly behind cold front later Wed
afternoon. Expect some modest diurnal improvement to IFR at IWD
and CMX Wed afternoon behind the front.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening into early
overnight but given poor confidence on whether storm will directly
hit TAF sites, did not include anything more than VCTS in TAFS.
Expect another round of showers and isolated TSRA on Wednesday,
but again not enough confidence on areal coverage to include in
TAFS. &&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 413 PM EDT TUE MAY 16 2017
Winds of 10 to 20 knots are expected overnight. There will be a
brief period during the day on Wednesday where winds subside to
around 10 to 15 knots, but as low pressure lifts across the area
late Wednesday through Thursday northeast gales to 40 knots are
expected. Late Thursday into Friday, winds will subside to 15 to 25
knots. Friday into Saturday winds will be around 15 knots. Through
the weekend, the winds will increase a bit, to around 15 to 25 knots.
Combination of showers and increasingly humid air arriving over
the cold lake waters will result in fog developing/spreading
across much of the lake tonight/Wed and lingering thru early Thu.
This fog may become dense at times. The fog will dissipate with
the arrival of drier air on northerly winds late Wed night/Thu.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MIZ002-009.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Thursday for LSZ265-266.
Gale Warning from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ Wednesday to 11 AM EDT
/10 AM CDT/ Thursday for LSZ162.
Gale Warning from 11 PM Wednesday to 2 PM EDT Thursday for
LSZ263-264.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Ritzman
LONG TERM...Rolfson
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...Ritzman/Rolfson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
317 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017
WV imagery this afternoon showing a deep longwave trof cutting
through the western CONUS with potent southern tier vort max
currently over southern CA/western AZ. At the surface...relatively
weak low pressure was centered in eastern CO with a stagnant
thermal boundary extending into eastern Neb then northern IA. A
second boundary/cold front was situated from central MN to
southwest SD. Daytime heating/influx of moisture has pushed
instability parameters to the extreme with MLCAPES 2500-3500J/kg
over the region.
A highly unstable environment will be in place to allow for
convective development in western KS this afternoon...which will
eventually reach the CWA early this evening. Expect updraft
initiation on nose of 8-9C/km low level lapse rates protruding into
moisture rich environment...promoting rapid storm development. All
this coincident to boundary layer theta-E convergence.
HRRR and RAP13 have been pretty consistent the last several runs
showing the cluster of western KS storms will cross into 0-3km bulk
shear of 40kt or so...forming into a QLCS. Complex is progged then
to quickly race along the Neb/KS border during the early evening
hours before crossing into southeastern Neb/extreme southwest IA.
Along with probable severe wind gusts(increasing layer differential
max theta-E)...an isolated tornado forming along the bowing line
segment cannot be ruled out.
Meanwhile farther north...narrow line of convection is progged to
fire later the afternoon along a stagnant surface boundary extending
from south-central Neb into west-central IA. Activity will expand
then in areal coverage mainly over northeast Neb/west-central IA
toward mid evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates topping moisture
rich boundary layer suggest severe hail producers are quite
probable.
In addition...a heavy rain threat will be in place as well tonight.
The last several runs of both NAM/GFS show continuity advertising a
high degree of precipitation efficiency consisting of deep warm
cloud layer/strong moist low level inflow...and 30-40 microbars of
omega coincident to PWS approaching 2"
Wednesday/Wednesday evening...core of southwest shortwave trof will
lift right over the CWA and bring wrap around precip mainly over the
northern CWA.
Precip chances continue Thursday afternoon through Friday associated
with a large and relatively slow moving upper low/several impulses
exiting the Rockies.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017
Precip chances continue into the early part of next weekend
accompanied by a noticeable cooling trend into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017
Gusty south winds will continue this afternoon across eastern
Nebraska with scattered-broken clouds at around FL040.
Thunderstorms are expected to form to the west this afternoon
before moving into the area this evening. Short-term model
guidance remains in good agreement in suggesting that a bowing
line of storms will affect the Lincoln and Omaha areas between
about 01 and 04z. As such, a mention of strong wind gusts have
been included in the TAFs during that time frame. Otherwise,
expect episodic showers and thunderstorms overnight into Wednesday
morning with the potential for more widespread MVFR ceilings
developing late tonight.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Mead
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1000 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017
.DISCUSSION...
Quiet conditions should continue through much of the overnight
hours, although the development of a 40-50kt SSWrly LLJ should
result in a rapid increase in low stratus development late ahead
of the Cntrl NM upper low as it becomes more negatively tilted and
ejects E into Wrn OK/Srn KS. Convection continues to backbuild
into a line attm across NW and W TX along the dryline, and will
begin to march E overnight into Ncntrl TX/Cntrl OK as the upper
low and attendant trough ejects ENE. The strengthening LLJ should
help to maintain this convection overnight as it surges E, but
should weaken late as it approaches the I-35 corridor once it
encounters an area of diminishing sfc-based instability and lapse
rates. The HRRR remains consistent with earlier runs with the
remnants of this convection possibly reaching McCurtain County OK
and the Wrn sections of E TX just prior to daybreak
Wednesday...thus have continued mention of slight chance pops for
these areas. It remains possible that mesoscale bndrys from this
weakening convection may play a role in convection development
across E TX/SW AR/possibly NW LA Wednesday morning/afternoon with
daytime heating, resulting in better sfc-based instability to be
realized, and as NE to SW 850mb theta-e ridging builds E into
these areas beneath the tail end of the departing upper trough.
Did have to make some minor upward adjustments to min temps
tonight, as the onset of the LLJ will keep bndry lyr winds mixed
and the development of low stratus will slow the additional temp
fall. Have also hoisted a Lake Wind Advisory for the entire CWA
Wednesday given the tightening pressure gradient over the Srn
Plains/Lower MS Valley well SSE of the deepening sfc low over Nrn
KS/Srn NE.
Zone update/NPW already out...grids will be available shortly.
15
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 658 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017/
AVIATION...
For the 17/00z TAFs, strong southeasterly surface winds will
remain quite gusty for the first couple hours of the period. Most
terminals should still experience wind speeds between 7 and 13
kts during the overnight hours. The strong winds will advect low
stratus and IFR ceilings into all TAF sites early Wednesday
morning. In addition, strong convection currently ongoing over
West Texas and Western Oklahoma may affect KTXK, KGGG, and KTYR
around 17/15z. However, the storms should be weakening quite
rapidly by the time they move into our area. Ceilings will
gradually lift into the VFR range by late morning, and winds will
become gusty again for much of the daytime hours of Wednesday.
CN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 70 86 72 89 / 10 20 20 30
MLU 66 87 71 89 / 0 10 20 20
DEQ 67 83 69 85 / 10 30 20 30
TXK 67 83 70 86 / 10 30 30 30
ELD 66 85 70 87 / 10 20 20 30
TYR 70 84 72 88 / 20 30 20 20
GGG 70 85 72 88 / 10 30 20 30
LFK 69 87 73 90 / 10 20 20 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ050-
051-059>061-070>073.
LA...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ077.
TX...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
15
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
330 PM PDT Tue May 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Sprinkles to light showers will continue tonight across portions
of interior NorCal. The higher elevations of the Sierra will see a
few inches of accumulating snow. Dry and warmer weather returns
for the second half of the week with NorCal`s first triple digit
heat possible on Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Light rain has made it as far south as the Sacramento metro region
so far this afternoon. On and off light showers are expected to
continue tonight in the valley and could spread southward towards
the Stockton-Modesto vicinty. The bulk of precipitation will
persist along the western Sierra slopes in the form of rain and
snow showers with snow levels above 6000 feet. Valley rain
amounts should be around a tenth of an inch or less while rain in
the mountains (below snow levels) could reach up to a half inch.
Snow accumulation above 6000 ft will range up to 4 inches. Breezy
southerly winds with gusts up to 25 mph in the valley should
lighten this evening as the frontal system tracks eastward out of
the valley.
The HRRR indicates that showers should diminsh along the Sierra
by 5 am Wednesday. Then NorCal will experience a dry, warming
trend starting Wednesday afternoon as strong high pressure builds
over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Daytime valley highs could warm
about 10 degrees each day Wednesday (70s), Thursday (80s), and
Friday (90s). Higher elevations will follow suit: Wednesday (50s),
Thursday (60s), Friday (70s). JBB
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)
High pressure ridging will bring mainly dry and increaslingly warm
weather through the weekend. The only potential for rain is maybe
a few isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms in the Sierra
south of Lake Tahoe Sunday into Tuesday as a weak system brushes
by to the east.
Temperatures will be trendning well above normal for the weekend,
with some triple digit highs forecast for the northern Sacramento
Valley, posisbly extending further south. Highs are generally expected
to peak Sunday. Monday may be slightly cooler. Tuesday could see
more of a change, with a Delta Breeze possible. EK
&&
.AVIATION...
Current weather system is bringing scattered valley showers and
high elevation rain/snow to the region this afternoon and tonight.
Expect TAF sites to remain VFR/MVFR, with IFR/LIFR over the
mountains. South to west winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts around 25
kts across the valley this afternoon will diminish during the
evening hours.
Valley showers should end by late tonight with Sierra showers
ending by 12z Wednesday. Dry and warming trend to follow for the
rest of the week.
Dang/JBB
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$