Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/16/17


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
639 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 Complex scenario this afternoon into the overnight concerning thunderstorm coverage and severe potential. As of 15.19Z, there is a narrow band of showers and thunderstorms from the Twin Cities to La Crosse to Richland Center along the leading instability gradient. These storms are producing some pea hail and brief heavy rain, but are otherwise not expected to produce widespread severe storms as they lift northeastward this afternoon. For much of the morning, convection allowing models (CAMs) were showing additional convective development by mid-afternoon across south-central MN into northern IA within 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE instability plume (surface dewpoints mid 50s to mid 60s) and 30 to 40 kts of 0-3 km shear as a weak short-wave lifted across the region. Latest HRRR/ESRL HRRR now appear to be backing away from that idea somewhat, or least delaying it until late afternoon/early evening, so overall confidence not as high as preferred this close to a potential event. If storms do develop, instability/shear profiles support large hail and damaging winds for areas mainly south of I-90. Farther north, severe potential is more limited. A second round of showers and thunderstorms is possible later this evening and into the overnight as an ill-defined surface warm front currently draped across central IA is forecast to lift northward with a strengthening low-level jet. Elevated storms north of the front could produce hail, but freezing levels around 12-13 kft may be a limiting factor for severe hail. Perhaps a greater threat will be locally heavy rainfall with training potential and PWATs around 1.5 inches, although placement of this precipitation is uncertain and dependent on the evolution of storms this afternoon. If, and it`s a big if, the warm front can move far enough north early this evening and encounter a more unstable/pristine, moisture-rich boundary layer, cannot completely rule out an isolated tornado or damaging winds. Confidence in this scenario is very low. Warm front should lift north of I-90 by 12Z Tuesday, allowing for some lingering morning convection mainly north of I-94. Still expect a drying trend into the afternoon with periods of sunshine. Atmosphere becomes well capped with 925 hPa temperatures rising to between +21 and +24 Celsius. Assuming there is clean window with more sun than clouds, temperatures are likely to rise into the mid to upper 80s, but still cannot rule out some locations reaching 90 degrees. Tuesday still looking breezy to locally windy with roughly 30 to 35 kts in the well mixed boundary layer. This will result in frequent southerly gusts up to 35 mph, especially west of the MS River. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 Shower and thunderstorm chances return Tuesday night through Wednesday as a negatively-tilted 500 hPa closed low lifts northeastward from the Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Despite strong shear, severe potential looks iffy at this point with a dirty warm sector. If substantial clearing/heating can occur ahead of the eastward advancing cold front, some severe storms will be possible. Latest GFS/NAM/ECMWF continue to show that the highest QPF will fall along and north of the surface low track from central MN into northern WI. Highs Wednesday will be cooler, generally in the 70s region-wide. Should see a brief dry period on Thursday with short-wave ridging aloft, although temperatures will be dropping into the 60s for highs. Precipitation chances return Friday into the weekend as a broad trough with multiple short-waves takes up residence across the the western two-thirds of the CONUS. Instability generally remains south of the forecast area, so thunder activity is unlikely. Temperatures will also be unseasonably cool with daily highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected at the taf sites tonight. MVFR to IFR conditions are possible in and near any storms. This activity should lift north of the TAF sites after 10Z. VFR conditions are then expected. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rogers LONG TERM...Rogers AVIATION...Wetenkamp
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
919 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 912 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 Weak convective elements are increasing across west central and southwest North Dakota indicating vertical motion is becoming more widespread this evening. Updated the POPs with the HRRR time lag ensemble guidance and this appeared to capture the convective trends with higher chances across much of central and southwest North Dakota this evening into the early morning hours. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 The main focus for the short term is thunderstorm chances this evening and overnight. Strong southwest flow aloft with an upper level jet streak moving into the Northern Plains and a lee trough will provide the focus for showers and thunderstorms this evening and overnight. Some light showers were appearing on radar earlier today and there may be some light sprinkles reaching the surface, but so far very few sites have reported any precip at all. cloud bases at or above 10K feet AGL likely resulting in mostly virga with a very dry low level atmosphere in place thanks to dry surface high pressure anchored over central North Dakota. A more defined mid level trough will eject northeast tonight across the central Rockies triggering the lee side surface low to propagate eastward. The track of the mid level wave and sfc low will favor likely POPs across all far northwest North Dakota tonight. Far southern ND remains in the marginal risk area for severe weather, with the more favorable chances across South Dakota. There may be a narrow window across southwestern North Dakota late this afternoon where a few strong storms could develop as instability increases ahead of the approaching wave. Another round of stronger storms may develop later tonight across southern North Dakota in association with a strengthening low- level jet. The main threats are gusty winds and small hail. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 Models have trended more dry as they have moved the storm track mid to late week farther to our south, with a large surface high pressure area building south into the Northern Plains Thursday - Friday. GEFS plume forecasts have also trended towards less QPF this week. POPs were lowered accordingly. The other impact besides drier weather will be cool temperatures accompanying the surface high. Forecast highs will range in the 50s to low 60s. The threat for frost will also increase as overnight lows are forecast in the 30s Thursday morning through next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 912 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected KDIK-KMOT-KBIS-KJMS through early morning followed by stratification of the precipitation late tonight. MVFR conditions expected KDIK-KBIS-KJMS between 10z-14z. Otherwise VFR. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...WAA SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...WAA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
921 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain in control across the eastern Great Lakes through tonight. A warm front will lift north through the region Tuesday afternoon. Low pressure will track northeast across the western Great Lakes Wednesday night through Thursday, with an associated cold front sagging south into the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Just some minor changes to the forecast for the overnight hours. Latest short term guidance including the HRRR and RUC take the convection over Lake Michigan just to the north of the area later tonight. This activity should continue to diminish but a few stray showers cannot be ruled out. Already had a small mention for northern areas and have left alone. Temps appear on track too as clouds will be slow to arrive in the east. Previous...Relatively quiet near term period as high pressure remains centered across the eastern Great Lakes. Mainly clear skies expected through the evening. Some uncertainty remains with precip potential late tonight into early Tuesday. MCS expected to propagate eastward from southern WI across southern lower Michigan this evening through the overnight. Associated MCV may bring some showers and an isolated thunderstorm to areas near Lake Erie. Confidence is low at this time, and any convection should be fairly isolated. Will maintain slight chance pops late tonight through early tomorrow morning across NE OH and NW PA. MCV will exit the area by midday Tuesday, with quiet weather and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies expected. No major changes to temperatures tonight into Tuesday from previous forecast. Mid 80s are possible across the western half of the area tomorrow as a warm front lifts north through the area. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Upper level ridge axis begins to shift east of the area on Wednesday as a trough lifts out of the Plains towards the western Great Lakes. The atmosphere will be well mixed on Wednesday with breezy southwest winds gusting to 25-35 mph. Many sites will experience the warmest temperatures of the year so far as all areas climb into the mid and upper 80s. The surface low will occlude as it approaches Wisconsin then slides east along the baroclinic zone draped across the central Great lakes on Thursday. Deep layer moisture will overspread the area on Thursday and will expect to see at least scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms with moderate instability developing. The clouds and showers will keep temperatures several degrees cooler in the lower 80s. The associated cold front is expected to push south into the area on Thursday night before stalling somewhere across central Ohio. Considerable model spread exists with respect to the cold advection behind the front on Friday which could lead to a large error in the temperature forecast. Continued with a middle of the road forecast and will have to update as we approach based on later model guidance. Will leave a low chance of showers and thunderstorms in for Friday as well but this will also depend on the location of the stalled front. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Stalled frontal boundary will lift back north on Saturday as another low pressure system tracks out of the Plains towards the Central Great Lakes. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will ramp up both as this boundary lifts north and then along the cold front that will move through Saturday night into Sunday. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible but will need to refine timing. Temperatures will trend warmer and may approach 80 but kept the forecast conservative for now with a moist airmass and lots of opportunities for showers. If we can manage a longer window of time in the warm sector then temperatures could need to be raised. && .AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... VFR will prevail thru Tue as ridge of high pressure over the area moves off to the east Tue. There is a small chc that some remnants of convection from the upper midwest could drop ESE into the Lake Erie area toward daybreak thru 18z Tue but the threat is too small to mention. OUTLOOK...VFR with only small chances for convective activity Thu thru Sat. && .MARINE... High pressure over Lake Erie today will shift off the mid-Atlantic coast on Tuesday as a warm front lifts north across Lake Erie. Good marine conditions are expected through Tuesday with southwest winds increasing into the 15 to 20 knot range on Wednesday. Should be able to manage without a Small Craft Advisory through Thursday given the offshore flow. Winds will shift around to the north/northwest behind a cold front Thursday night into Friday. Will need to keep an eye on strength of the front although currently waves are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Kubina SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...Greenawalt MARINE...KEC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1159 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 .AVIATION... Increasing ascent north of an approaching warm front will sustain the potential for shower/thunderstorm develop through the early-mid morning hours. The limited amount of instability will favor simply a low coverage of thunderstorms, with the greatest potential existing from PTK northward. Predominant VFR conditions, exception within any heavier convective showers/storms where brief IFR/MVFR will be possible. Clearing skies as a warmer and increasing stable environment arrives with the frontal passage on Tuesday. Southerly winds turning gusty within the warm sector and greater daytime mixing ensues, with gusts in the 20 to 25 knot range attainable by afternoon. For DTW...Low probability for TSRA to enter the airspace during the early-mid morning period. Greater potential will exist north of the terminal. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low confidence in thunderstorms late tonight. * Low confidence in ceilings aob 5000 feet Tuesday morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 840 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 UPDATE... Northeastward expansion of the burgeoning warm sector slated to progressively take hold for the midweek period establishing an extensive corridor of warm air advection from the central plains into great lakes this evening. Initial wing of mid level waa/isentropic ascent sustaining a lead band of convective showers, with a persistent thunderstorm complex anchored on the southern flank. Recent HRRR guidance steadfast in retaining this precip shield downstream and into our less receptive/more stable enviroment. Ambient environment carries virtually no instability at this stage, so maintainance of a thunder component will likely prove difficult. Some degree of dimininishing mid level stability as the accompanying theta-e gradient arrives may still allow for a few rumbles of thunder. Elongated zone of forced ascent under moderately unstable conditions trailing this lead band will continue to support convective development/expansion from southern WI back through Iowa. Steady downstream propagation of this activity will sustain at least a chance of showers/thunderstorms locally during the early-mid morning hours. Severe thunderstorm risk remains minimal, given the clear lack of meaningful instability to sustain organize convection and the overall unfavorable timing. Convective chances diminish quickly 11z-13z as the warm front lifts through. Minor update forthcoming to simply tweak the timing and overall POPs based on latest upstream trends and CAMs guidance. PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 349 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 DISCUSSION... Ridge axis over the western Great Lakes will slide through the region tonight while deepening west coast trough drifts across the Rockies. The trough then stalls and sends a series of waves up and around the top of the ridge which will settle over the eastern conus mid week. One of the first waves tonight will lift through the midwest with a warm frontal extension lifting through SE lifts through southern MI later tonight between about 06-12Z. A band of isentropic ascent and fgen along the front will spread scattered showers, and possibly elevated thunderstorms, through Lower MI. Best forcing will be further NW closer to the low whereas the band extending further SE will be impacted more by the stable ridge. So question is, how far SE along the front will showers develop? Best forcing will be over MBS extending down to PTK, though some hires models do show activity all the way to Detroit. One thing to watch out for will be upstream activity and possible MCV over IA and northern IL that will track toward SW Lower MI. Most models show this following the instability gradient southeastward while weakening, thus never reaching our CWA. Overall, with lack of much CAPE, and meager mid level lapse rates, expect band of showers with possible embedded thunderstorms though these storms are not expected to be severe. Warm frontal passage will open the door for deep layer SW flow into the area on Tuesday. Mixing to near 850mb will have the potential to mix down winds up to 20 to 30 mph. This will also bring a good surge of warmer air into the area with 850mb temps rising into the mid teens. Good mid May sun with WAA should allow temps to reach into the low 80s for nearly all locations. Area will remain dry with strong cap in place and all the forcing aligning further west. Low temps will stay elevated in the low to mid 60s Tuesday night with lack of decoupling and winds staying elevated. Wednesday will be even warmer with continued WAA and temps already starting in the 60s. Clouds will be on the increase later in the day as upstream waves inches further east. Area will remain dry through most of Wednesday and Wednesday night but some showers and thunderstorms could start moving back into the area overnight as the next shortwave trough rotates up through lower MI. More active weather period will be in store to round out the second half of the week into the weekend. A series of shortwaves will move across the region as troughing moves in starting Wednesday. The first low will move up across the northern Great Lakes late Wednesday into Thursday. Weakening of the low will occur through Thursday bringing slight chances for rain/storms. The next system looks to have a little better dynamics as it moves up from the plains this weekend. Temperatures will once again reach into the lower 80s on Wednesday before cooling back into the 60s Thursday as cold air filters in behind cold front. Temps then moderate back to near 70 degrees for the weekend. MARINE... Light winds will continue through the evening hours as high pressure slowly exits East. Southerly flow will then increase somewhat late tonight into Tuesday as a warm front lifts north through the area. Showers and thunderstorms will likely accompany the warm front, particularly over Lake Huron. While south to southwest flow will gust to around 20 knots on Tuesday, the increasingly warm air will create a rather stable layer over the cooler waters of the Great Lakes. The highest gust potential, reaching near 25 knots, will exist along the immediate shoreline on Wednesday and Thursday as decent gradient flow leads to gusty conditions over the land. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. Lake Huron...NONE. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....MR UPDATE.......MR DISCUSSION...DRK/SS MARINE.......SF You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
952 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 952 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 Adjusted POPs and QPF slightly. Latest 00Z NAM as well as the most recent HRRR and RAP runs have been trending back south with the heaviest precip amounts. Tweaked amounts a bit back south but will hold off and let a few more high res runs as well as the 00Z GFS come in before making huge changes. A few showers are starting to drift into the far western Devils Lake basin so adjusted POPs upward in the next few hours in that area. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 Challenges over the next 24 hours will be precipitation placement, intensity, thunder or showers, and amount. Warm frontal boundary will lift north into the southern forecast area late this evening and overnight. Along the elevated boundary showers will develop as 850mb wind convergence spreads north and east across the southern valley and west central Minnesota lifting into the Park Rapids and Bemidji areas towards dawn. A second area of convective activity is expected to develop in the high plains and track to the east reaching the Devils Lake basin around 12Z and into the valley 15 to 18z. Some uncertainty exists on placement of the SFC low tomorrow and its strength. Ahead of the low up to 1k J/kg of cape appears to develop within a modified warm sector. Hi-res model guidance bring the low across tech FA and heaviest placement of rainfall along and north of the highway 200 corridor with the GFS and EC 12z model solns heavier across the southern FA. Highest amounts look to be around and inch with upwards of an inch and a half...whereas other areas look to range from a quarter to half inch. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 Southwest flow aloft will continue to keep things active across the area for midweek. Some lingering showers will be possible Tuesday night from the system that moved through the area earlier in the day. Tuesday night will also bring one last mild night before things turn much cooler for the remainder of the week and through the weekend. On the heels of Tuesday`s system will be another quickly moving into the Northern Plains. Models are in pretty decent agreement bringing the main upper low through central/southern Minnesota, keeping the best forcing and moisture across our far southeastern forecast area (possibly even further southeast than that). Much of northeastern North Dakota and the northern Red River Valley should see little precipitation with this feature while the southern valley and into west central Minnesota could see a bit more. Will continue to watch for any northward shifts in the track which would pull rain chances further north and west. Regardless of precipitation chances for Wednesday, it will still be a dreary day with plenty of clouds and wind, along with temperatures struggling to reach the 60 degree mark. Cool surface high pressure building into the area from Saskatchewan will gradually push any lingering precipitation chances to the east by Thursday. The high should bring drier conditions to the area to end the work week, although remaining cool with highs only in the 50s or lower 60s. Lows could dip into the mid 30s for parts of the area but enough mixing should keep frost at bay Wednesday night. Higher chances for frost look to be Thursday night with much less wind (and clouds). Another upper low could bring more chances for precipitation late Friday and into the weekend but plenty of model disagreement remains on the track of this system. Regardless, it will stay cool before possibly warming back up to near normal temperatures by next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 647 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 Some showers early on could impact the KDVL area during the overnight hours but activity has been mostly mid level and it should remain VFR. Lower ceilings will move in later tomorrow along with more showers and a few thunderstorms, although which TAF sites will be impacted by convection is still uncertain. Ceilings will drop down to MVFR and then IFR, starting in the KFAR area shortly after 12Z and spreading northward. Some of the heavier cells could also impact visibility for brief periods but too uncertain to put restrictions at this point. All but the eastern TAF sites should improve back to VFR by the end of the period. Winds will shift around from the southeast to east and northeast, then eventually to the northwest as low pressure moves through. Some of the northwest winds at the end of tomorrow could gust to around 20 kts. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...JR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
631 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 548 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 Forecast updated for Sheridan County as Severe Thunderstorm Watch #215 in effect until midnight MDT. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 The ACCAS on visible satellite across Scntl Neb represents a weakness in the 700mb cap. The convection the models are generating across Wrn KS this afternoon and tonight should develop upscale along this weakness or "front" tonight. The models vary with the track of the convection...some due north through Ncntl Neb and others northeast clipping the eastern edge of Ncntl Neb. The models in general suggest another area of thunderstorms tonight across Northwest Neb. The location varies with the models. Severe weather potential tonight is reasonably good. The SPC outlook today and tonight is marginal for organized severe storm development but don`t be fooled. Lapse rates are steep, moisture plentiful and winds aloft are strong. Thus, it is believed that any organized area of thunderstorms which forms, could produce severe weather...large hail and wind damage. By Tuesday morning the atmosphere should be capped once again. The models drive another cold front through Wrn and Ncntl Neb in the morning. This front should lift north in the afternoon and evening and be the genesis for additional thunderstorm development mainly affecting areas along and east of highway 83. The severe weather potential Tuesday is higher. H700mb temperatures fall into the mid and upper single digits celsius which is weak. Increasing moisture and strong upper level dynamics emerging from the upper level low across the Wrn U.S. should support storm development along and east of a stationary front forecast to lie somewhere across Cntl Neb. Severe weather could develop anywhere along and east of highway 61 with the threat increasing eastward. The models suggest storm development across the Nern Colo plains and Scntl Nebraska which should lift north into Wrn/Ncntl Neb late in the afternoon or evening. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 An initial round of strong or severe thunderstorms should move through Tuesday night. SPC outlooks nearly all areas for marginal risk of severe weather. The better instability is in just the eastern edge of Ncntl Neb. The first of Two upper level lows moves Tuesday night and Wednesday. Strong cold air advection takes hold Wednesday with highs in just the 50s and 60s. H700mb temperatures fall from 5C to near 0C Wednesday and the operative precipe mode is showers. Isolated thunderstorms might develop given the -15C to -18C temperatures at h500mb. A lull in the rain should develop Wednesday and and Thursday morning. A second colder upper level lows moves across Thursday and Friday. H700mb temperatures fall to 0C to -5C. Snow will develop in eastern WY and perhaps a period of wet snow in Western Nebraska...not unheard of in May. Rain/showers are expected most areas Thursday and Friday. Cold air remains in place next weekend with h700mb temperatures below 0C. The guidance is trending colder Saturday morning with lows near freezing across the Wrn Sandhills. Skies could clear out at night and then cloud back up during the late morning. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 Forecast challenge is convection as short term models differ in the focus area and movement of convection overnight. Visual flight rules expected through the period where model preference is the RAP where convection in northwest Kansas will lift north into southwest Nebraska, while additional convection in the northwest Panhandle moves northeast to bring a chance of thunderstorms throughout through 08Z. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...TLK SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
903 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... 903 PM CDT Small, but fairly potent MCS continues to propogate east across southwest WI and into far NW IL. Evening sounding from DVN depicted some very impressive low-mid level lapse rates, though boundary layer is cooling/stabilizing now with increasing SB/ML CINH. Strong book-end vortex associated with this MCS is moving straight eastward across southern WI. Recent radar observations seem to depict some weakening/decrease in the organization of the system, particularly the southern flank of the line over NW IL where KDVN 88D shows outflow starting to outrun the line, likely at least partially a result of it starting to encounter increasing inhibition. Haven`t seen any appreciable warming of cloud tops yet and given the mesoscale organization, concerned that damaging wind threat (while slowly lessening) could continue into our CWA, particularly the WI border counties. Will continue to closely monitor trends the next 30-45 minutes to determine whether watch box may need to be extended farther east into especially northern portions of the Chicago metro area. - Izzi && .SHORT TERM... 236 PM CDT Through Tuesday... Convective chances and the potential for severe weather this evening remain the primarily forecast concerns. Mid afternoon, low pressure is analyzed over far western IA with a northward advancing warm front stretching east to near DVN and then ESE across VYS towards IND. Across the local area, dew points are pooling in the upper 50s to low 60s near the warm front which in combination with very steep mid level lapse rates associated with an EML spreading east across the region is resulting in moderately strong instability. Special 18Z RAOBs from DVN indicates around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE (2500+ SBCAPE), though it is well capped with 700mb temps near 10C. This capping inversion is expected to be the primary limiting factor for convection locally through there remains potential to overcome this if a sufficient cold pool can develop this evening from upstream convection. To our north, an MCV is noted moving ENE across MN into WI which has been the primary focus for convection thus far today, though is outrunning the better instability to the south. This wave shouldn`t be much of a player for the local area, but if anything may contribute to some weak mid level height rises in its wake which could reduce or delay precip chances upstream. Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage over north central and northeast IA this evening as a low level jet begins to intensify with storms expected to propagate east or east-southeast along with instability gradient. Earlier runs of the HRRR as well as the NAMNest indicated the potential for a bowing line of thunderstorms to race across the northern half of the CWA but have since backed off on convection altogether or shifted the threat farther north. As mentioned earlier, moderate MLCIN is in place across the warm sector and will be strengthened later this evening as we move beyond our diurnal peak. Confidence in thunderstorms occurring is not particularly high, and lowering with each successive CAM run, though given the strong instability and sufficient deep layer shear, if we are able to overcome the cap there remains a reasonable risk we could see strong storms with damaging winds the primary concern. Warm front is expected to continue north across the Great Lakes Tuesday with the local area falling well into the warm sector. Temperature tomorrow afternoon are expected to push well into the 80 under mostly sunny skies. Tightening pressure gradient and deep mixing will result in very breezy conditions. NAM/GFS soundings indicate potential for mean gusts to around 30 kt mid to late in the afternoon, with a few sporadic top of the channel gusts into the mid 30 kt range. Deubelbeiss && .LONG TERM... 153 PM CDT Tuesday night through Monday... With a well established warm sector in place, focus will shift back west to the plains, as the upper low (currently over Southern California) will be shifting northeast into the plains. Tuesday night remains mild as we maintain breezy southwest winds ahead of the low. The compact upper low will proceed northeast to Minnesota by Wednesday night, with a corresponding and seasonally strong surface low taking a similar track across Iowa into Minnesota. With a deep and fairly stacked upper low in place, we do expect there to be ongoing convective activity to our west much of the day. There will be several waves ahead of the low and an increasing southerly low level jet that will steer at least a narrow ribbon of fairly high precipitable water airmass in our direction, with the most notable wave arriving late in the day. At this point the more significant forcing may still remain to our west, but there appears enough forcing at least across north central Illinois for scattered showers and thunderstorms. As mentioned in the previous AFD, the kinematic environment is highly favorable for organized storms given the strength of the wind fields. The threat may be the highest late in the day/evening as the forcing gets a bit closer and the low level jet refocuses back southwesterly. The airmass across our area will also feature dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s, maybe higher, which if cloud cover from storms to our west does not inhibit warming, could translate to 1000 J/KG of CAPE as well. Much hinges on said cloud cover and on how far east the stronger forcing will get. With the southerly low level jet initially and better forcing west combined with these thermodynamic concerns, a broad general thunder area remains in place. Given the warm start and south winds should reach near or above 80 in most locations (mid 80s east) even with any clouds, with less clouds determining how windy we will be. Forecast soundings suggest 30-35 mph wind gusts are plausible, and could be higher if mixing is deeper, and in an unfavorable direction from an aviation perspective. The region remains under mild southwesterly flow on Thursday, though high pressure to our northeast will steer a cold front toward northeast Illinois late in the day, and depending on how fast the front moves could bring another rapid cool down near the lakefront. This boundary appears to serve as a renewed focus for showers and thunderstorms ahead of another deep upper low across the Rockies and high plains, with chances beginning somewhat low but progressively increasing Thursday evening through the weekend. Confidence remains on the lower side in this time frame given uncertainty in how quickly this low will move east, but with northeast low level winds expect conditions to feel on the cooler side of normal at least for a few days, including Friday/Saturday. KMD && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs... A warm front lifting across the region this evening is resulting in an isolated thunderstorms just northeast of Rockford early this evening with more widespread convection blossoming across north central and northeastern Iowa. Activity over northern Illinois is expected to remain isolated under a modest capping inversion and on the edge of any weak synoptic forcing and is not included in the TAFs. Better forcing is in place across north central Iowa where a low level jet is starting to intensify. The developing convective complex in this area is going to be the primary concern as we head into the late evening and overnight hours and it moves east-southeast into northern Illinois. How far east and south the line moves remains in question as it will be moving into a less unstable and more strongly capped airmass with forcing gradually waning late this evening as the LLJ veers and weakens. Have once again pushed back timing of TSRA in the TAF, though did hedge a little sooner than the extrapolated motion of the upstream storms to account for some acceleration of the line as a cold pool becomes better developed. There still remains some potential that the line may dissipate before it reaches the terminals or may pass just north of the terminals. Winds will veer to the south overnight and to the south-southwest Tuesday as the warm front lifts north of the region. Very gusty conditions are expected through much of the day tomorrow, peaking in the high 20 kt to around 30 kt range mid to late afternoon. Wind gusts should diminish shortly after sunset. Deubelbeiss && .MARINE... 153 PM CDT Several southwest to northeastward propagating low pressure systems will take aim at the western Great Lakes region this week, leading to a somewhat extended period of gusty south- southwest winds. Currently high pressure over the central to eastern Great Lakes will slowly drift to the east coast on Tuesday. The first low will move form the central High plains to Lake Superior later Tuesday, with the second later in the week taking a farther east/southward track either over the upper peninsula of Michigan or through northern Lake Michigan. Expect winds to increase to 30 kt or so, with highest wave building on the northern tier of the lake. Generally stable conditions should preclude gale force winds most of the time. A trailing cold front will move southeast on Thursday and clear the south end of the lake by Thursday night. A period of strong northerly winds is then expected to develop behind the front Thursday night into Friday as high pressure builds eastward across Ontario and the northern Lakes. For the Illinois and Indiana nearshore waters, small craft advisories will likely be needed by Tuesday afternoon as gusty south winds develop. May be a bit of a lull later Tuesday night though it will be very windy again during the day Wednesday, with south-southwest gusts off of the warmer land perhaps 30-35 kts at times. KMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744- LMZ745...3 PM Tuesday to 9 PM Tuesday. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1000 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 .UPDATE... Tonight...High pressure to the north will maintain an onshore wind flow which will allow for mild overnight lows mostly in the upper 60s to lower 70s. There have been some cloud lines over the Atlantic but moisture recovery has only been in the lowest levels, so no isolated showers are expected yet. The HRRR has been showing some low visibility across northeast Florida and the local WRF indicates some over interior of east central Florida. With the gradually increasing low level wind flow, think our current depiction of patchy inland fog is okay. Little change to previous forecast. && .AVIATION... Some MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible for the interior terminals again early Tuesday morning. East winds should gust to around 20 knots towards midday along the coast and over interior terminals by mid-late afternoon. && .MARINE... Tonight-Tue...High pressure to the north will slowly strengthen, which will gradually increase east winds, with speeds getting near 15 knots by Tue afternoon. Seas 3-4 ft near shore wnd building up to 4-5 ft well offshore by late Tue. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ Forecasts...Lascody Impact Wx...Blottman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
808 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 419 PM EDT MON MAY 15 2017 Large scale pattern features deep trough over western Conus with flattening ridge downstream over middle Conus. Upper level jet is present from the Rockies to south central Canada. At the sfc, main low is in lee of the Rockies with warm front extending to southern MN and southern WI. H85 trough is farther north across MN to western Upper Michigan with main edge of higher h85 theta-e just west and southwest of Upper Michigan. Warm and moist advection has brought showers and isold tsra to west and southwest Upper Michigan through much of the day. Parts of Gogebic county have seen over 1 inch of rain and there was steady lighter rain into Ontonagon and Iron county as well. Temps in those areas really were impacted with IWD and LNL still in the 40s even at this hour. Elsewhere mid clouds have spilled east gradually and temps have reached the 50s to near 70 degrees, warmest and driest over far east closer to departing sfc high still over the lower Great Lakes. Following radar trends and various short range convective allowing models (CAMS), expect the area of showers over western forecast area to slide toward central forecast area into early this evening. Greatest elevated CAPE up to 1000 j/kg remains south and west of Upper Michigan so widesread tsra not expected inot the evening for most of Upper Michigan. Probably a better chance at seeing more tsra over far west where upstream convection could slide across and since that area is closer to higher h85 theta-e and elevated CAPE. Attn later this evening is on convection lifting east north east out of eastern MN. THis convection is firing along gradient of elevated MUCAPE which RAP does show making a run into far scntrl forecast area this evening. Have increased pops toward Menominee county. Suppose there could be a few stronger storms make it that far north but with greatest MUCAPE increase over southern WI instead of farther north into WI, seems that the line of storms should tend to weaken at least from a severe standpoint. Heavy rain certainly possible this evening and heavier cores could also produce pea sized hail with freezing levels around 10kft. For later tonight, at least right now, models have trended toward keeping most concentrated convection anchored closer to sfc warm front lifting slowly north over southern MN to central WI. This especially makes sense with the convection in the evening serving to re- inforce cooling over northern WI which would help hold the warm front to the south. Trimmed pops back after rain moves through this evening. Do bring chance pops in late tonight into Tue morning as the warm front tries to lift back to the north running into h85 theta-e advection that will be ongoing along h85 front. Eventually whatever works through in the morning should allow recovery in temps/humidity by Tue aftn with readings well into the 70s and dwpnts nearing 60F over the west. Large scale forcing will be minimal but the buildup of instability and any warm air advection that focuses closer to the low lifting across MN could lead to additional showers and thunderstorms especially west in the aftn. SREF probabilities which keep severe probs well to the south of here tonight show increase over west on Tue aftn. SPC does have our western forecast area in marginal risk for severe. Similar to tonight with the increasingly humid airmass, all the tsra could produce heavy rain and will have to watch out for any areas where tsra train over same areas. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 430 PM EDT MON MAY 15 2017 After a quiet first half of May with blo normal pcpn, an active pattern is setting up, somewhat reminiscent of the active pattern that led to much above normal pcpn across the fcst area during Apr. The main difference from Apr will be that the pattern over the next week will be more transitional rather than being stable/persistent. Trof currently over the western CONUS will slowly shift e to the central CONUS this weekend then to the Great Lakes/Mississippi Valley where it may hang up during next week in response to the establishement of a ridge/positive height anomaly along the w coast of N America and also over ne Canada. This trof will consist of two significant pieces of energy, one currently over southern CA and the other upstream along the BC coast. The first will lift out, reaching the Upper Great Lakes on Thu. The second will drop into the central/southern Rockies by Thu then lift into the Upper Great Lakes late this weekend. Ahead of the first main wave, combination of the instability and weaker shortwaves lifting ne will lead to clusters of shra/tsra across the Upper Mississippi Valley/western Great Lakes into Wed. The main wave will offer the potential of a more significant organized pcpn event for the Upper Great Lakes later Wed night into early Thu. After a dry period for at least part of Fri, the second main wave will bring another round of pcpn for the weekend. As for temps, after a preview of warm/more humid summer type weather over the next couple of days, cool weather/blo normal temps will return in the wake of the Wed/Thu system. Progression of the mean trof to the Great Lakes/Mississippi Valley early next week will then work to maintain an overall blo normal temp regime for the fcst area thru next week. Beginning Tue night...it appears warm front will lift n of Upper MI as a shortwave and associated sfc low move from northern MN into northern Ontario. Trailing cold front will approach western Upper MI during the night with axis of instability shifting over the fcst area. With warm front to the n, best potential of shra/tsra should be over western Upper MI, closer to approaching cold front. With mucapes in the 1-2k j/kg range, deep layer shear appears sufficient for the potential of organized, svr storms. Shear progs, however, are quite varying from model to model, so low confidence on svr potential. It will be a warm night with humid air mass, precipitable water of 1.25-1.5 inches/250pct of normal and southerly winds limiting temp fall. Expect temps at some locations over the w to stay above 60F. Wed/Thu...attention turns to the vigorous shortwave lifting ne thru the Plains on Wed, reaching southern MN Wed evening and the Upper Lakes on Thu. Meanwhile, cold front should drift se into Upper MI on Wed, setting the stage for sfc low pres associated with the approaching shortwave to lift along the front Wed night/early Thu. With precipitable water 250+% of normal, placement of the front will be critical for determining where hvy rainfall will occur as the wave lifts across the area. While not widely varying among model guidance, there is enough difference in this critical feature that pinpointing heavy rainfall area is not certain yet. For now, consensus suggests front will be setup across central Upper MI, supporting best chance of hvy rainfall across western Upper MI later Wed and Wed night. Certainly could see widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall with some local 3 inch amounts. Instability will be in question Wed into Wed evening as it appears there may be considerable cloud cover. Overall signal from all the models is for less instability to be present on Wed compared to Tue. Still, there will be the potential of svr storms near the cold front as it drifts into central Upper Mi, conditional on heating/instability build up. Lingering rain will diminish Thu and probably end for most locations by evening. Max temps on Wed may show a large range, depending on location of the cold front. May turn quite cool along Lake Superior behind the cold front (temps falling to the 40s) while remaining warm/humid (70s) ahead of it. Thu will turn much cooler across the area as low pres/cold front exit. In fact, temps across the w and n may hold to or fall to the low/mid 40s during the day. Fri thru the weekend...the GFS/CMC are both quicker in advancing the Rockies trof out into the Plains with lead ejecting energy bringing shra back into Upper MI by late in the day on Fri. ECMWF remains consistently slower, though it has shown a slightly faster trend with the 12z run. Fcst will lean toward the drier ECMWF solution for Fri. As the trof shifts to the western Great Lakes by late Sun, sfc low pres will lift into the Upper Lakes over the weekend, bringing more shra. Timing/track of the sfc low is not well agreed upon by the models, not surprising at this time range. This prevents having any confidence in timing best chc of pcpn. Temps will also be impacted by sfc low track/timing. If the low track stays se of the fcst area, it will be a cool weekend, especially chilly near Lake Superior. Dry weather should then return for Mon. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 737 PM EDT MON MAY 15 2017 Warm front associated with a low pressure system over the Western Plains is expected to stay south of the area tonight into central Wi and southern Mn which is where most of the shower activity will stay focused tonight. A weak disturbance moving through the Upper Great Lakes will continue to support isolated showers over the TAF sites into early evening, but then expect showers to end by late evening. Another disturbance lifting northeast from the Central Plains late tonight into Tue morning will push the warm front farther north and could be the focus for another round of showers and thunderstorms lifting toward the TAF sites on Tue morning though exact timing is still uncertain. Also coverage of showers will be uncertain as forecast soundings indicate atmosphere may be capped by warmer air aloft which could limit shower coverage. The rain occurring this evening along with nighttime cooling and east to southeast winds north of the warm front should result in developing low clouds and possible fog late tonight into Tuesday morning. MVFR cigs and vsby seem likely in this setup with even a chance of IFR conditions, especially at KSAW and KCMX with onshore flow off the Great Lakes. Expect some improvement in cigs/vsbys Tue afternoon with diurnal mixing and wind direction taking on a more southerly component. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 430 PM EDT MON MAY 15 2017 Winds thru tonight across Lake Superior should remain mostly under 20kt. Expect winds to increase on Tue as a warm front lifts n toward the area. Gusts should increase to 25kt over the eastern part of the lake. As the warm front lifts n of the lake Tue night, stronger winds up to 25kt should remain over the e half of Lake Superior. After a period of lighter winds Wed morning as a sfc trof settles over the lake, winds will ramp up Wed aftn thru Thu morning as low pres rides up the trof across central Upper MI and eastern Lake Superior. Expect ne to n winds to increase up to gale force Wed night/Thu morning over western Lake Superior and late Wed night thru early Thu aftn over central Lake Superior. Winds will then diminish to under 20kt into Fri. There may some stronger winds again this weekend as another low pres lifts into the Upper Lakes. Finally, combination of showers and increasingly humid air arriving over the cold lake waters will result in fog developing Tue and then lingering thru early Thu. This fog may become dense Wed. The fog will dissipate with the arrival of drier air on northerly winds late Wed night/Thu. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLA LONG TERM...Rolfson AVIATION...Voss MARINE...Rolfson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
621 PM MDT Mon May 15 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 621 PM MDT Mon May 15 2017 Upated to cancel severe thunderstorm watch 213 for Baca and Prowers counties, with the main threat of storms pushing east into Kansas. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 338 PM MDT Mon May 15 2017 Dew points have plummeted across the mountains and adjacent plains this afternoon...however a brief shift to a more southerly component is advecting lower 50 dew points back into the far southeast plains. This is still the favored area for isolated strong to severe convection this afternoon through early evening. In fact by 00z...most of the activity is predicted by HRRR to shift eastward into KS as dry line mixes eastward. MLCape will be running around 20000 J/kg across Baca and southeast Prowers County initially and with deep layer shears around 35 kts could certainly see a severe storm or two with main threats large hail and damaging winds. Threat will end by mid evening. Some cooling aloft noted tonight so temperatures in the mountains should be slightly cooler than last night. Meanwhile...westerly downslope winds along the I-25 corridor should keep the usual warm pockets on the warm side of guidance. For Tuesday...closed low over AZ will fill and lift northeast across CO during the afternoon. Lee trof strengthens and kicks eastward in response with a windy day in store across much of the area. Given the moist fuels...conditions are not deemed critical by land management agencies for a fire weather watch or red flag warning...but certainly meteorological conditions will be meeting criteria. Some moisture accompanies the system...though from model soundings it is all very high based. Some isolated to scattered high based showers and thunderstorms will be possible...mainly over and near the mountains where gusty winds and lightning will be the primary storm threats. meanwhile...timing of the eastward progression of the sfc trof axis washes out dew points and keeps severe threat to the east of the area during the late afternoon and evening. -KT .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 338 PM MDT Mon May 15 2017 ...Cooler and unsettled weather pattern expected for mid week and beyond... Tuesday night-Wednesday...Latest models in good agreement of old upper low across the Desert SW weakening as is ejects across southeast Colorado Tuesday night, with brief short wave ridging across the area early Wednesday as next system digs into the Northern Great Basin through Wednesday afternoon. Should see a isolated to scattered showers and a few embedded storms, associated with the passing wave, spreading east across the mountains through the eastern plains Tuesday evening, with a frontal boundary pushing through the plains into early Wednesday morning. Will see increasing chances of precipitation across the higher elevations along and west of the ContDvd late Wednesday morning, with a few showers spreading east across the high valleys through the eastern mountains into the afternoon. Wednesday night-Friday night...Again, models in decent agreement of closed upper low across the Northern Great Basin on Wednesday, slowly lifting out across the region through the day Friday. The movement of this system will bring periods of rain and snow to much of south central and southeast Colorado through the period, with widespread precipitation across the Contdvd late Wednesday afternoon spreading east across the area Wednesday night and Thursday. Best pops to remain over and near the higher terrain Wednesday night, with another cold front pushing south and east across the plains Thursday morning. This system looks to be cold enough to bring snow levels down to between 7000-8000 feet Wednesday night and early Thursday morning, and may need late season winter weather advisories for the higher terrain, especially across the Central Mountains through the Pike Peak region. Another spoke of energy digs across the area on Thursday. with an elongated upper trough progged to slowly lift out across the region Thursday night and Friday. This will keep chances of rain and snow showers across the area through Friday afternoon/evening. Temperatures below seasonal levels can be expected through this period. Saturday-Monday...A cool northwesterly flow pattern develops across the region into early next week, keeping chances of showers in place across the region, especially over and near the higher terrain, with temperatures expected to be at or below seasonal levels through the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 338 PM MDT Mon May 15 2017 VFR conditions expected at the taf sites over the next 24 hours. Gusty south to southwest winds will decrease at all three terminals by 02-03z. Best threat of any thunderstorms will be well off to the east of KCOS and KPUB through this evening. On Tuesday...should see some increasing mid/high cloudiness with VFR cigs and virga possible in the afternoon. Erratic gusty winds will be the main threat with these...with this risk a possibility at all three terminals during the afternoon and early evening. Otherwise should see gusty southwest winds increase at all three terminals during the afternoon with gusts to around 30 kts possible. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MW SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...KT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
902 PM PDT Mon May 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure aloft will move into Arizona on Tuesday, continuing cool conditions and a threat of scattered, light showers along and west of the mountains, with gusty westerly winds in the mountains and deserts into Wednesday. A warming trend will begin on Wednesday, and continue into the weekend as high pressure off the Coast expands eastward and shrinks the marine layer back to the coast. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... NWS radar shows an increase in shower activity this evening off the San Diego County Coast, moving east. These are generally light and are expected to continue to remain isolated to widely scattered through the night and into Tue morning. The 00Z Miramar sounding had a weak inversion near 6500 FT MSL with weak instability below, and unidirectional winds from about 240 degrees. This favors shower development in island generated bands, which will likely localize a lot of the accumulating rain overnight. A closed low was centered near Death Valley this evening, with a trailing wave swinging cyclonically south and then SE overnight. This will keep unstable conditions across the region with a threat of scattered, mostly light showers into Tue morning. The latest HRRR guidance has most of the showers in western San Diego County and on the Riverside County mtn coastal slopes, diminishing by Noon on Tue. The low will be kicked east rather rapidly on Tue as a stronger wave fills into the Great Basin from the NW. This system will maintain, and actually increase the onshore flow, and keep a deep marine layer over the coastal basin through Wed. Thickness gradually rises after Thursday, and the marine layer diminishes as the low grudgingly moves east and high pressure off the Coast expands. This will push daytime temperatures over the coastal basin back above average by the weekend, with average temps farther inland. A Wind Advisory has been posted for the mountains and deserts beginning 6 PM PDT on Tue. Expect a few gusts over 60 MPH near the windier passes through Wed morning. Please see LAXNPWSGX for details. && .AVIATION... 160325Z...Coast/Valleys/Coastal Mountain Slopes...SCT-BKN cloud layers with bases 2000-5000 ft and tops to 6000 ft will continue through Tuesday evening, obscuring higher terrain at times. ISO-SCT light showers continuing through about 15Z, then tapering off during the day Tuesday. Desert Mountain Slopes/Deserts...West surface wind gusts 35-45 kt along the desert slopes, through the passes, and locally into the deserts through about 10Z tonight and again Tuesday afternoon and evening. Areas of associated MOD-STG UDDFS and LLWS possible over/E of the mountains. Otherwise SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20000 FT MSL and unrestricted vis through Tuesday evening. && .MARINE... Northwest winds will continue with gusts to 20-25 kt in the outer coastal waters through tonight before subsiding. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 3 AM Tue for the outer waters. Another brief period of stronger winds is possible Wed afternoon across the outer waters with gusts 20-25 kt. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 8 AM PDT Wednesday for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Waters from San Mateo point to the Mexican Border Extending 30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island. && $$ PUBLIC...JAD AVIATION/MARINE...SS