Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/02/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1040 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017
Pronounced stacked low pressure system now over NE Wisconsin this
evening with a surface trough axis stretching eastward through the
tip of the mitt/straits region...to secondary surface low over SE
Ontario. North of the trough...still rather soupy with low stratus
and areas of dense fog...particularly in the tip of the mitt where
surface winds remain easterly off Lake Huron.
Meanwhile...a few pockets of showers continue to pinwheel around
the upper low...one lifting up through eastern upper Michigan
followed closely by another lifting through northern lower
Michigan. Another lull in the precip behind that...but with yet
another batch rotating out of SE Wisconsin that will be swinging
up through the region overnight.
So...periodic showers with likely-categorical POPS is the overall
forecast idea for the rest of tonight. Have attempted to add
some hourly timing detail to shower chances through tonight into
Monday morning (with the help of HRRR hourly guidance). Otherwise,
no big changes to the ongoing forecast.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017
...Scattered to numerous showers...
High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.
The center of the surface area of low pressure has progressed into
central Wisconsin with an associated occluded front now into far
northern lower Michigan (near the tip of the Mitt). Apx radar showed
a few showers scattered around. The main near term forecast concerns
revolves around pops through Tuesday.
Will not get overly detailed with the forecast through Tuesday.
Upper level and surface low pressure system will continue to track
slowly northeast through the period (to near Sault Ste Marie at 12z
Tue) while dragging a surface cold front across the region later
tonight. Upper level energy will pinwheel northward into the region
as well with wrap around moisture on the backside moving into
northern Michigan into the day on Tuesday. Therefore...expect
scattered showers to become numerous in some areas by this evening
and continue into tonight. Shower activity should be more scattered
on Tuesday. Additional rainfall amounts tonight into Tuesday should
be a quarter of an inch or less. Temperatures will cool down once
again behind the cold front. Lows tonight in the upper 30s to
lower 40s. Highs Tuesday only in the middle to upper 40s which is
quite chilly for early May (about 15 degrees below average for the
date).
Expect minor flooding to begin on the Rifle River near Sterling in
Arenac County this evening and continue through midweek. This is
due to the rain that fell over the last couple of days as well as
any additional rainfall through Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017
...Drier and milder times ahead...
High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Current wet-weather producing system will
be on its way out to start the short term portion of the forecast.
While broad troughing will no doubt remain at the mid levels,
entrance of surface high pressure will bring moderating temperatures
and drier weather along with it. Mid range guidance progs in rather
remarkable agreement of a sharping of the the mid and upper level
flow regime by Thursday, with energy dropping on front side of
expanding western ridge helping carve out closed mid level low
pressure well to our south. While any influences of this system up
this way (if any at all) look to occur further out in the extended,
much weaker northern stream energy diving southeast within deepening
trough axis may bring a few light showers by later Thursday to at
least parts of the area.
Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud and temperature trends
and addressing that possible late day shower potential on Thursday.
Details: Any lingering showers, perhaps even mixed with a touch of
snow, are expected to come to an end rather quickly Tuesday night as
deep moisture departs and surface high pressure begins to make an
entrance. This drying trend continues right through Wednesday, with
trends supporting a mainly sunny and much milder day as highs spike
well into the 50s (amazing what early May sun can do). Wednesday
night shaping up to be a bit on the chilly side with excellent
radiational cooling expected, especially during the first half of the
night when high pressure is directly overhead. Will definitely
undercut guidance numbers by several degrees in those typical
interior ice box locations, and would not be surprised to see some
spots make a run into the upper 20s by sunrise Thursday. Another
fairly mild day on Thursday is expected, this despite slowly
increasing cloud cover. As mentioned, will need to be on the lookout
for some late day light showers, particularly across eastern upper
Michigan. Guidance blend approach recommends keeping it dry for now,
but something to monitor in the coming days.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017
Models are in fairly good agreement with this portion of the
forecast period, with an area of low pressure developing Wednesday
night over the southern Mississippi River Valley, treking just
southeast of the Great Lakes region and finally moving into New
England by Saturday...where then models hint at a cut-off low
remaining for several days. This track could produce light
precipitation over the forecast area with partly to mostly cloudy
skies and high temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. The only
other indication at this time of precipitation would be with a weak
upper level wave with accompanying moisture that would move through
towards the end of the work week/early next weekend, producing only
some light precipitation amounts. Low temperatures will be in the
low to mid 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 1039 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017
Deep low pressure over Wisconsin this evening will rotate up into
Canada late overnight into Tuesday. Several waves of light showers
will rotate through the region through Tuesday, before things dry
out late Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Largely VFR conditions across northern lower Michigan at the
moment. But CIGS lower back to MVFR later tonight and persist
through Tuesday as those showers moving through. Southwesterly
winds tonight veering westerly and eventually northwesterly on
Tuesday with some gustiness at times.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Mon May 1 2017
As low pressure moves across the area tonight and Tuesday, winds
will veer sw, and then w to nw on Tuesday, and will again become
rather gusty.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ345-346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TBA
NEAR TERM...AJS
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...TBA
MARINE...JZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
605 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017
Early this afternoon, the surface low was located over southwest
Wisconsin while move slowly to the northeast. Local and regional
radars continue to show most of the precipitation was in the
cyclonic flow on the back side of the system from northern
Minnesota into central Illinois.
In addition to the cyclonic flow, the precipitation production was
being aided by some weak frontogenesis in the 1000-700 mb layer
and isentropic up glide in the trowal. The 01.16Z RAP indicates
the frontogenesis will move east with the area of low pressure and
rapidly weaken by early evening. However, a secondary band of
frontogenesis currently forms to the west of the area and then
moves to the east during the evening as well. The isentropic up
glide in the trowal will be weak, on the order of 1 to maybe 2
ubar/s on the 285K surface, but should remain through much of the
night. Expecting to see the more widespread rains move east and
primarily be east of the area by early evening. However, with the
secondary band of frontogenesis, continued weak isentropic up
glide and cyclonic flow, cannot rule out some on and off light
rain/drizzle through the night and will carry some 20 to 40
percent chances for the entire area after midnight. These chances
should then end early Tuesday morning as the forcing dissipates as
the surface low moves across the Great Lakes and into Ontario.
While the precipitation will end Tuesday morning, the clouds will
be much slower to clear as enough moisture will be stuck in the
cyclonic flow to keep these around for much of the day. Some
clearing could start in the western sections during the afternoon,
but not expecting widespread clearing to occur until Tuesday
evening.
Northwest flow aloft will be established over the Upper Midwest
behind the current system. A short wave trough topping the western
upper level ridge will move onto the High Plains Tuesday but the
bulk of the energy from this wave will go well south of the region
to help form another upper level low over the middle Mississippi
River Valley Wednesday. There could be enough left over energy on
the northern side of this new low to bring some weak pv advection
into the region for Wednesday afternoon and evening. This could be
accompanied by some occasional weak up glide on the 295K surface,
but in general, the forcing looks to be pretty weak with this
system and will only a some small chances for showers across the
western sections Wednesday afternoon and evening.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017
There could still be just enough remaining lift from this system
for a small chance of showers across the northern sections
Thursday. With this system expected to become a large cut off low
over the Ohio River Valley it will slow the eastward progress of
the upper level ridging. This should then allow the next short
wave trough topping the ridge to slide across the western Great
Lakes Saturday. As this wave slides by the area, it could produce
some showers that affect the eastern portions of the forecast
area late Friday night and Saturday morning. After that, the
ridging will continue to move slowly east and be close enough to
keep the area dry to end the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017
Aviation forecasts will be troubled with cyclonic flow on backside
of slowly exiting closed upper low. Source region is mainly MVFR
ceilings with bands of rain or rain showers, and pockets of IFR
conditions.
Latest few HRRR runs keep at least patchy light precipitation
wrapping around exiting storm which may keep threat of IFR
conditions around a bit longer than earlier predicted, although this
will be intermittent it appears. In any event, trend will be for
precipitation to slowly exit and ceilings to gradually improve with
breezy northwest winds and well mixed atmosphere. Even so should
still MVFR for the most part until late in the forecasts when drier
air is progged by most 12z/18z guidance to clear skies out a bit.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...Shea
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1020 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lingers over the region much of the night,
providing a focus for scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms overnight. It will be mild across much of the
area tonight except remaining cool across northeast MA and the
Greater Boston area. Other than a few showers Tue morning over
the Cape and Islands, a drying trend develops with partial
sunshine and warm temperatures for Tue afternoon. Dry and cooler
weather follows Wed and Thu. Another low pressure will push
toward the region Friday, bringing periods of heavy rain and
gusty winds. Showers may continue into next weekend as this low
pressure lingers nearby.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Fog... Line of showers and tstms over Eastern NY is moving
northeast toward VT and NH. The southern end of the line, in
eastern PA, trends northeast into the Berkshire East Slopes and
parts of the CT Valley 11 PM to Midnight. Meanwhile 10 pm
observations show fog across Eastern MA and parts of Rhode
Island. Vsbys on Cape Cod and Nantucket are already at or near
1/4 mile while areas along the MA coast and Narragansett Bay are
1-3 miles. Expect the low clouds/fog to expand through 2 AM in
RI and Eastern MA. A Dense Fog advisory remains in effect along
the South Coast where higher dewpoint air moves in off the
colder waters.
Convection... The New York convection trends northeast. HRRR
projects showers moving across Southern New England overnight
with diminishing elevated CAPE. Expect the current thunderstorms
to diminish as they edge east into our area, but could be an
isolated storm in Western MA. This initial area of showers is
favored in Western MA/Northern CT 11 PM to 4 AM, and in Eastern
MA and RI 2 AM to 6 AM. The HRRR shows a second line associated
with the actual cold front developing along the western edge of
the CAPE over Eastern NY and PA after midnight and moving into
Western MA/Northern CT 4-6 AM.
Will also be watching a potential area of convection moving up
the coast from Virginia and the Carolinas. This is projected to
move with the low level southwest jet. This may create enough
low level convergence to generate a second round of thunder, but
primarily over RI and SE MA. HRRR timing would bring this in
after 12z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday...
Clouds linger across the region in the morning along with a few
leftover showers over Cape and islands but drying trend late morning
sets up for a very nice afternoon with partial sunshine and
warm temps as highs climb well into the 70s away from the south
coast! Good blyr mixing will support SW winds gusting up to 30
to 40 mph at times. This wind direction will limit highs to the
60s along the south coast.
Trailing short wave/secondary cold front may trigger a few showers
late in the day across the interior. Otherwise dry weather prevails.
Tuesday night...
Dry weather but turning cooler behind departing short wave. Lows
mainly in the 40s but that`s close to normal for early May.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Big Picture...
A high pressure to start for Wednesday and Thursday followed by a
strong low pressure system that will bring heavy precipitation to
the region Friday into Saturday. Rain totals may yield around 2
inches of rain in 36 hours.
Details...
Wednesday...
With the previous frontal passage, temperatures will be
much cooler and strong winds will continue as a weak high pressure
builds back into the region. Westerly winds may gust up to 20 mph
inland during the day, and 30 mph along the coast. Overall,
Wednesday will be mostly sunny throughout the day with afternoon
temperatures reaching into the 50s, with Greater Boston reaching
into the 60s.
Skies will be mostly clear overnight allowing temperatures to drop
into the upper 30s in Northern Massachusetts. However, most of
Southern New England will remain in the 40s throughout the night.
Thursday...
The high pressure remains for most of Thursday. With
Tuesday`s cold fronts well offshore, winds continue to diminish
through the day. Winds will become northwesterly early Thursday
morning, as wind gusts weaken inland and along the coast. Afternoon
temperatures will range from the upper 50s to low 60s across
Southern New England.
With a strong low pressure system approaching from the southwest,
winds will become southerly in thethat afternoon and begin to
strengthen along the southern coast. Overnight temperatures
will range in the low 40s across Northern Massachusetts and
upper 40s along the coasts.
Friday...
Rain showers become likely early Friday morning as
widespread showers move from west to east across Southern New
England. Rain will intensify Friday morning, which could reduce
visibility for the morning and evening commute. Winds will quickly
strengthen into the afternoon as a warm front moves north through
the region. Winds could gust up to 40 mph along the coast and
waters. Temperatures will be slightly below normal Friday with highs
ranging in the 50s.
A cold front will cross the region Friday evening, strengthening the
winds even more, especially across the waters. The coast and islands
may gust up to 45 mph overnight, with gusts near 30 mph inland.
Overnight lows will range in the 50s across the region.
Saturday...
Rain will continue through Saturday morning, and taper off into the
afternoon. Strong winds will continue in the east but diminish to
the west. Winds Saturday afternoon will gust up to 40 mph on the
Islands and 20 mph inland and along the coast. Afternoon
temperatures will be in the 60s in southeastern New England, but
remain in the 50s in Western Massachusetts.
Saturday evening should be mostly dry as the low pressure continues
northward. Overnight temperatures will range in the 40s across the
region.
Sunday and Monday...
A cold front will cross Southern New England early Sunday morning,
increasing winds behind the front. Winds will be gusting near 40 mph
Sunday morning along the coast and up to 20 mph inland. Areas of
light rain are possible both Sunday and Monday as a low pressure
remains to the north of New England.
Afternoon temperatures both days will range in the 50s with
overnight lows ranging in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Overnight...
Scattered showers and isolated thunder likely through 06z
western CT/MA and 06z-12z RI and eastern MA. Conditions lowering
back to IFR in fog in Eastern MA and RI with LIFR near the
coasts. Marginal LLWS from low level southwest jet.
Tuesday...
Mix of IFR-MVFR in the morning but trending to VFR by late
morning into midday from west to east. Any lingering showers
with embedded thunder early over Cape and Islands will move
rapidly offshore. Remainder of the day dry with isolated or
widely scattered showers late afternoon/early evening western-
central CT/MA as secondary cold front moves across the area.
Tue night...
VFR and dry weather.
KBOS TAF...high confidence on timing of showers/isolated T-storm.
Low confidence on timing of cigs and vsbys lowering tonight.
KBDL TAF...high confidence on timing of showers/isolated T-storm.
Low confidence on timing of cigs and vsbys lowering tonight.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday...High Confidence
VFR conditions as a high pressure with mostly sunny skies. Westerly
winds near 20 mph inland and 30mph along the Southern Coast.
Thursday...High Confidence
VFR conditions prevail as high pressure remains. Winds diminish
through the early morning. Northwesterly winds become southerly in
the afternoon.
Friday...Moderate Confidence
MVFR conditions as widespread rain moves into the region. IFR
conditions may become present as large areas of heavy rain move
northeast through Connecticut into Central Massachusetts. Areas of
IFR will be for KPVD, KORH, and KBOS between 18z and 00z Saturday.
Strong wind gusts expected throughout the day as low pressure system
approaches. Easterly winds gusting up to 40 mph along the coast.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
415 pm update...
Overnight...
Low clouds and fog will limit vsby to 1-3 miles and with areas
of 1/4 mile vsbys in dense fog. Scattered showers overnight
along with isolated thunder. Southwest winds increase to 20-25
kt after 11 pm - 2 am from west to east.
Tuesday...
Any morning showers should be confined to Cape Cod and the Islands
eastward and moving offshore. Thereafter improving trend with dry
weather but gusty SW winds up to 30 kt near shore.
Tuesday night...
SW winds begin to diminish and become westerly. Dry weather and good
vsby.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday...High Confidence
Wave heights up to 7 feet along the outer waters Wednesday. Westerly
winds gusting up near 20 mph inland and 30 mph along the southern
coast.
A small craft advisory is likely needed along the Southern coast and
waters.
Thursday...High Confidence
Wave heights lowering throughout the day, generally up to 4 feet on
the outer waters. Northwest winds will be calm through most of the
day, before becoming southerly.
Friday...Moderate Confidence
Waves up to 9 feet along the outer waters Friday evening. Winds
gusting to 40 mph along the coastline, and 45 mph along the Cape and
Islands.
A Gale Warning may be needed along the eastern waters.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for MAZ020>022.
Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for MAZ023-024.
RI...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for RIZ006-007.
Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for RIZ008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ231>234-250-
251.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ230.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ236.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ235-237-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/Nocera/Correia
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC/Nocera
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...KJC/Correia
AVIATION...KJC/Nocera/Correia
MARINE...KJC/Nocera/Correia
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1039 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaching from the eastern Great Lakes will bring
a brief period of moderate to heavy rainfall this evening into
the overnight hours, along with isolated thunderstorms. Winds
may be locally gusty with these showers and thunderstorms from
the Champlain Valley westward across northern New York. Mostly
cloudy skies and isolated to scattered light rain showers will
occur on Tuesday and Wednesday, as a trailing upper level low
moves eastward across the North Country. High pressure will
bring drier and more pleasant weather conditions on Thursday. A
large area of low pressure will mark a return to unsettled
weather conditions on Friday and through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1039 PM EDT Monday...Have gone ahead and cancelled Severe
Thunderstorm Watch #187 for our area as primary convective line
continues to weaken and exit into our eastern Vermont counties
where a more stable airmass of maritime origin remains in place.
This line produced scattered wind damage earlier this evening,
most notably across southern St. Lawrence County in the Pitcairn
and Fine area where a distinct microburst signature was noted
on KTYX radar. Please refer to our latest storm report summary
for additional info.
In the meantime, a large area of post-convective moderate stratiform
rainfall continues across much of northern NY. Expect this activity
to gradually progress east into Vermont over the next 2-4 hours with
rainfall tapering off west to east later tonight. HRRR has
continued to perform admirably this evening regarding this
activity and as a matter of course have leaned heavily in its
direction regarding evolution of pops/wx overnight. Low
temperatures a blend of available guidance, mainly upper 40s to
mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 PM EDT Monday...Upper low pushes further into Canada
on Wednesday, terrain driven showers will continue to linger
into the early evening. Showers will wind down Wednesday night
with surface and upper level ridging over the North Country.
Temperatures will be below seasonal normals during this
timeframe with cold air in place behind departing frontal
system.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Monday...Really no significant changes for the
long term portion of the forecast. Thursday looks to be the last
dry day of the period. A large vertically stacked low pressure
system will approach Thursday night and especially Friday,
widespread rainfall is expected for our forecast area. This low
will remain nearby and keep the weather unsettled across our
area through the entire forecast period, temperatures will be
cool.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Complex forecast for this evening with
convective line of strong to severe storms progressing west-
east across the area, weakening into eastern VT. Main idea is a
mixture of VFR/MVFR with brief heavy downpours/gusty winds,
mainly from the Champlain Valley west through 02Z. Moderate to
severe turbulence possible within line of storms. Behind this
activity scattered rain showers taper off overnight, then re-
blossom by Tuesday afternoon as upper low approaches from the
Great Lakes. Again, a mixture of VFR/occnl MVFR with this
activity. Winds variable this evening, trending
south/southwesterly later tonight into Tuesday and becoming a
tad gusty.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Friday: VFR/MVFR. Breezy. Definite SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Saturday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...JMG/Banacos
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1002 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring a widespread showers and thunderstorms
to the area tonight. High pressure will follow for the mid-week
period. A Low pressure system will impact the region Thursday
into Friday and may bring widespread showers and thunderstorms
and heavy rain. Expect cooler weather over the weekend behind
exiting low pressure system.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1000 PM Monday...The squall line has weakened over the
past couple of hours with the strongest convective elements
limited to the area around Laurinburg, NC and near the Santee
River in South Carolina.
The environment remains supportive of convection from both an
instability/skew-T viewpoint and from a synoptic view as well.
A narrow but growing zone of 300 millibar divergence aloft is
situated across the coastal Carolinas. Deep ascent focused
beneath this divergence should help maintain steep enough lapse
rates that we won`t have to worry about capping killing off the
convection. The loss of daytime heating has reduced surface-
based instability to around around 500 J/kg, however as the line
works its way down to the coast in the next couple of hours it
will encounter dewpoints several degrees higher which should
increase SBCAPE to around 1000 J/kg. This should reinvigorate
convective updrafts, and along with higher precipitable water
values may increase rainfall rates above and beyond what most
locations along the I-95 corridor are currently seeing.
Helicity across the 0-1 km layer is still 250-300 m^2/s^2 with
0-6 km bulk shear around 35 knots. However 0-3 km lapse rates of
5.5C/km or less have led to slow updraft speeds and overall lack
of storm organization. Severe weather potential appears low
currently, however we`ll continue to closely monitor this line
as it encounters better instability late this evening.
The HRRR model has been very good the past few hours and its 23Z
run looks almost perfect from a timing standpoint. The line
should make it down to Myrtle Beach around midnight and into
Wilmington around 1 AM.
Our latest updated forecast features PoPs ranging from 80
percent near Georgetown to 90-100 percent farther north and
across the Cape Fear region. Few changes to forecast
temperatures, still anticipated to 65-67 near the coast and
around 60 inland.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...A zonal mid level pattern will be in place
most of the period with a transition to a southwest flow late
as a deep cyclone develops across the mid Mississippi Valley. At
the surface weak high pressure will be in place throughout the
period. There will be a very weak surface trough moving across
early Wednesday but it only brings a subtle and short lived wind
shift. With precipitable water values well under an inch for
most of the period pops will be near zero and even clouds will
be at a premium. With the somewhat deep westerly flow
temperatures will remain on the warm side although overnight
lows with good radiational conditions will drop to just above
climatology.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...The period will begin with low pressure
vertically stacked across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Model
consensus is progressive with this system early on, bringing it
slowly into the Ohio valley Fri and then up into the upper Ohio
Valley Fri night. Broad low pressure may then stall as strong
shortwave energy continues to rotate around the system. A general
eastward drift will take the vertically stacked system across
eastern Canada and New England during the weekend and Mon.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop as the
warm sector envelops the area Thu and Thu night. The highest POPs
this forecast cycle are for Thu night, then ending with the passage
of a cold front late Thu night and the first half of Fri, from W to
E, as the region gets dry slotted.
Then shortwave energy rotating around the upper low and cooler temps
aloft may allow for isolated showers or even a rumble of thunder
Sat, mainly across the North Carolina portions of the FA, even as
much drier air works into the region in the low levels. Given the
slow movement of the upper low, will carry small POPs on Sun when
there may be a weak surface trough moving across the area as well.
Did not include POPs above threshold for Mon. The column may be
sufficiently dry that day to finally forecast a dry day, However, we
may still be under the influences of the upper low and cool temps
aloft such that a few showers may still develop with the heating of
the day.
Temps will still be above normal Thu before dropping to or below
normal for the remainder of the period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 00Z Tuesday...An intense squall line of thunderstorms
with tops to FL450 will move steadily eastward across the
eastern Carolinas tonight, bringing excursions to IFR
visibility in heavy rainfall and variable convective outflow
gusts to at least 25 knots, perhaps higher. The squall line
should reach FLO around 0130Z, LBT around 0230Z, and the coastal
airports (MYR, ILM, CRE) between 0400-0600Z. Ahead of the
squall line low stratocumulus pushing onshore with bases down
to 2500 feet AGL will be accompanied by surface winds as high as
20G25KT.
As the squall line pushes offshore between 0600-0700Z, clearing
skies are expected with VFR conditions developing across the
area.
Extended outlook...Periods of IFR/MVFR conditions are possible
in possible widespread showers and thunderstorms and heavier
rain late Thursday through Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1000 PM Monday...The squall line of thunderstorms has
weakened inland, but is expected to regain some of its strength
as it moves down to the coast in the next few hours. Synoptic
winds out ahead of the storm are from the south at 20-25 knots
with gusts near 30 knots. Thunderstorms could add to these
gusts, but behind the storms late tonight into Tuesday morning
winds should veer more westerly and diminish significantly in
strength.
Seas have built to 7 to 7.5 feet at the buoys near Cape Fear,
with 4 to 5 foot seas reported nearshore. Dominant periods are
7-8 seconds Seas could build by another foot in the next few
hours before the thunderstorms arrive.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Weak high pressure meandering around the region
will lead to weak wind fields of ten knots or less through most of
the period essentially from the west. A weak surface trough briefly
leads to northwest winds early Wednesday. A better defined return
flow develops late from the southeast with speeds of 10-15 knots.
Significant seas will be 2-4 feet early on dropping to more of a 2-3
foot range late in the period.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...There is a likelihood for Small Craft Advisory
conditions late Thu through Fri night and these conditions may
linger into at least Sat. Elevated seas may linger into Sat.
Low pressure and its associated frontal system will bring adverse
winds and sea condtions for much of the period. A warm front should
move through the area Thu with a cold front to follow late Thu night
and Fri morning. The marine environment will remain under the
influence of a vertically stacked area of strong low pressure to our
N through Saturday.
SE winds will veer to S Thu afternoon and to SW late Thu night. SW
winds Fri will veer to westerly by late Fri and this westerly
direction will persist until the end of the period. The strongest
winds, 25 to 30 kt, are expected Thu night. Wind speeds will still
be 20 to 25 kt Fri with winds only slowly diminishing from there
Fri night and Sat. Seas will build up to 6 to 9 ft Thu night with
seas remaining above the 6 ft threshold into Fri and possibly into
Sat across at least the northern waters.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...RJD
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1028 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1028 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017
Based on latest observation trends, winds have continued to fall
well below wind advisory criteria over the last few hours. As
such, after coordinating with neighboring offices, decided to go
ahead and cancel the ongoing Wind Advisory for this evening. The
Wind Advisory is still in effect for tomorrow afternoon as winds
are expected to pick back up with afternoon heating. Other
updates were fairly minor, just loading in the latest observations
to make sure the near term grids were on track with the ongoing
conditions. All changes have been published and sent to NDFD/web.
A new forecast package (ZFP and HWO) was sent out to reflect the
changes in headline.
UPDATE Issued at 755 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017
Forecast seems to be in relatively good shape. Main updates were
to load in the latest observations to make sure the winds and wind
gusts, in addition to the temps and dew points, are on track with
current conditions. Also tweaked sky cover a bit to match up
better with ongoing trends. All changes have been published and
sent to NDFD/web. No updates to the forecast package are needed at
this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 450 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017
20z sfc analysis shows a strong cold front now east of the state
with its line of showers and embedded strong storms moving away
from the area. This front has also brought in strong and gusty
winds in its wake as the skies cleared. The returning sunshine
limited the dropoff in temperatures post frontal with most places
even rebounding back toward the low 70s. Currently readings are
varying from the mid 60s in the northwest to the mid 70s in the
east. Dewpoints have come down with the dry air advecting in from
the west with upper 30s noted through the mid part of the CWA and
upper 40s to lower 50s on the fringes. The showers and
thunderstorms did bring down some higher gusts as they moved
through earlier, but the bulk of the winds today have been from
the gradient ahead of the front and now deep mixing behind it.
Accordingly, they are now running from the southwest at 15 to 25
mph most places with gusts to 40 mph and scattered reports of
power outages and trees down.
The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast. They all depict a deep closed low
rotating northeast from the Upper Midwest across the Great Lakes
and into Canada by morning. This places Kentucky in a large trough
of lower heights and fast near zonal mid level flow with energy
confined mainly north of the Ohio Valley. The pattern relaxes
through Wednesday morning with heights lifting and flow weakening.
Given the agreement will favor a consensus model solution with a
lean toward the HRRR for near term details.
Sensible weather will feature breezy conditions continuing into
the evening before settling somewhat. Expect a mid or just lower
deck of clouds to move back in later tonight with CAA making for
fairly uniform temperatures. Cannot rule out a stray sprinkle or
light shower from these clouds across our northern counties and
the wrap around moisture of the parent system - but measurable
rain is doubtful so have kept it dry overnight. The deeper
moisture then retreats north on Tuesday with partly sunny
conditions expected for Tuesday. The sunny patches will encourage
deep mixing again on Tuesday afternoon with strong gusty winds
from the southwest anticipated. For this reason, have added
another day of wind advisory to the forecast for Tuesday
afternoon. Tuesday night should see more of a traditional ridge to
valley temperature difference set up, though tempered by the
breezy winds early in the night and some clouds moving in from the
west late. These clouds will mark the approach of the next
weather system forecast to be another strong one as it takes shape
over the Southern Plains for mid-week.
Again used the CONSShort and ShortBlend as the starting point for
all the grids with some adjustments for ridge to valley T
distinctions Tuesday night. Also, dampened PoPs across the north
with the limited wrap around moisture keeping the mention out of
the zones.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017
Model solutions look fairly similar with mid and upper level
features through the first half of the extended, but diverge from
there. A deepening trough will form a cutoff low over the Mid-South
by Thursday. This low then walks its way up the Ohio Valley leaving
our area in a mean northwest flow pattern. Main differences in
solutions are related to subtle disturbances or lobes of energy
rounding the base of the eastern CONUS trough left in the wake of
the low lifting northeast into the upper Ohio Valley. At the
surface, a wave of low pressure will lift northeast out of the
southern plains and through the Ohio Valley. This low pressure
system deepens as it passes through the Commonwealth and appears
well organized. Consequently we should see another round of
respectable rainfall amounts with 48 hour totals of between an inch
and two inches being produced from Wednesday night through Friday
night. This system will also be responsible for a decent surge of
colder air with H850 temps dropping to around freezing from Friday
evening through the end of the extended window...and possibly
beyond.
For sensible weather, models suggest an unsettle and cooler pattern
for the bulk of the extended. Temperatures appear to run at least 5
to 10 degrees below normal for this time of the year. Of particular
interest is Sunday morning. COOP MOS is advertising Sunday morning
lows in the mid 30s. Surface high pressure will be nosing its way
into the region and skies will be clearing. Concern is for the
possibility of some patchy frost. Will need to keep an eye on this
potential with upcoming updates. Forecast soundings do suggest the
potential for some isolated thunder ahead of the approaching surface
low Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Thus continued to
carry inherited slight chance of thunderstorms for that time period,
though the slight chance for thunder was extended a bit more into
Thursday evening.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 802 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017
Gusty westerly winds continue behind a cold front that pushed
through earlier today. Brisk winds will continue throughout much
of the evening and into the overnight, though gusts are expected
to decrease with loss of daytime heating and the ability to mix
down to the surface. Expect sustained winds generally around 10
knots at the TAF sites. Clouds will also move in across eastern
KY, but CIGS should remain generally low end VFR throughout the
night, breaking apart as we head into the day Tuesday. Wind gusts
will also begin picking back up once again during the day Tuesday
as temperatures begin to warm and higher winds aloft are able to
transfer to the surface. Winds should remain generally westerly,
sustained between 10 and 15 during the day, with gusts of 20 knots
or more by 18Z at most TAF sites.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JMW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1100 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 815 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017
Made some minor tweaks to precipitation coverage this evening as
regional radars show light showers/sprinkles as far south as
southern IL making their way toward the region. Otherwise, rest of
forecast track, and will continue the wind advisory for eastern
portions of the CWA through 03z as some sites are still gusting
close to 40mph at this hour.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017
Surface analysis this afternoon showed a 993 mb low over central
Wisconsin with its cold front now along crossing over the
Appalachians. Large cyclonic flow extends across the lower Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley. Satellite imagery shows extensive deck of
strato-cumulus building in from the southwest, encompassing much of
the forecast area. Efficient mixing this afternoon has brought down
wind gusts 30 to 40 mph at times and temperatures range from the 50s
and 60s in the clouds to low 70s across eastern Kentucky.
In the near term, the main concern is wind gusts. Expect wind gusts
of 35 to 40 mph at times through the evening hours across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky. HRRR and RAP soundings show some of
this better mixing continuing past 00z, especially along and east of
I-65, so will extend the Wind Advisory through 03z for those areas,
and let the western areas expire normally at 00z.
Late this evening into the overnight, a piece of upper level energy
will pivot across central Illinois in south central Indiana. This
may bring isolated to scattered showers across southern Indiana and
far northern Kentucky for a few hours, and will continue to mention
20-30 percent chances tonight. Plan on lows tonight in the upper 40s
to low 50s with mostly cloudy skies.
On Tuesday, the upper level low and surface become stacked over the
Great Lakes which will bring another gusty day to the area.
Soundings show efficient mixing up to 800 mb which will result in 35
to 45 mph wind gusts during the late morning and afternoon hours
across much of the area. In coordination with JKL, will issue a Wind
Advisory for the area from 11 am EDT to 8 pm EDT. Skies may start
mostly sunny but there should be an extensive strato-cu deck by
afternoon. Highs will top out in the 60s to low 70s.
High pressure quickly builds in Tuesday night, and winds should
quickly relax after sunset. Lows will be in the 40s, the coolest
readings across the northern Bluegrass region where low 40s are
expected.
.Long Term...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017
The main theme in the long term is cooler than normal temperatures
and potential for more unsettled weather later this week.
Dry conditions are expected the first half of Wednesday but in a
fast zonal flow, another weather system will quickly move east
across the area by Wednesday afternoon. A low pressure system is
forecast to track across northern Arkansas to western Tennessee.
Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms may spread into parts of the
areas as early as Wednesday afternoon, but it appears the higher
chances will come Wednesday night.
The 05.01z models have converged on showing the surface and upper
low deepening and becoming stacked over southern Illinois on
Thursday, bringing more widespread showers to much of the area.
Depending on exact timing of waves, there may be enough instability
present in the afternoon for a few rounds of thunderstorms across
central Kentucky. Will maintain the blended consensus for
precipitation chances - 80 to 90 percent Thursday and Thursday
night. Total rainfall Wednesday night through Friday is expected to
be on the order of 1.5 to 2 inches. Some locally higher amounts are
possible. For some areas, especially across southern Indiana and far
northern Kentucky, this may be enough to cause some hydrology
issues.
Confidence in the forecast drops below average for Friday and the
weekend as the upper level low is expected to be wobbling across the
lower Ohio Valley. Models notoriously struggle with these solutions
in the extended, and there is usually high run-to-run variance. Wrap
around showers may persist into Friday and Saturday under colder,
northwest flow.
Unseasonably cool temperatures are possible Thursday and Friday if
the cloudy and showery solutions do end verifying. Some of the raw
gridded guidance has highs stuck in the 50s, but for now will use a
blended approach which has highs in the low 60s Thursday and
Saturday, but will stay in the 50s for Friday.
The remainder of the long term looks to be under the influence of
upper level troughing across much of the Great Lakes and mid-
Atlantic. This should continue below normal temperatures and chances
for showers at times.
&&
.Aviation...(0Z TAF Update)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will be
the main concern this TAF period as we remain on the south side of a
strong low pressure system over the Great Lakes. WSW winds of 14-18
kts will continue to gust to 25-28 kts over the next 1-3 hrs. After
sunset, winds will decrease some but gusts of 20-25 kts are still
expected through much of the overnight hours. Also a sprinkle or two
is possible in low clouds late this evening. We`ll see a brief lull
in the breezy conditions and also a break in the mid cloud deck
during the pre-dawn hours. However, by mid morning mid level clouds
will build back in and WSW winds will pick up to 15-18 kts gusting
to 25-28 kts again tomorrow.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Wind Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
Tuesday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
KY...Wind Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
Tuesday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
082.
&&
$$
Update...DM
Short Term...ZT
Long Term...ZT
Aviation...AMS
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
748 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017
.UPDATE...
As of 745 PM EDT...Current forecast is largely on track with only
minor updates based off the latest observations. Radar continues
to depict convection weakening both in intensity and in spatial
coverage this evening, with just some widely scattered showers and
a few rumbles of thunder confined mainly to the interior. A few
additional showers are also noted off Mainland Monroe County in
the Gulf along with another streamer in the Atlantic. Will
continue to maintain the mention of isolated to widely scattered
showers through the night with the moist airmass in place and the
frontal boundary in the Gulf inching closer to the region. Only
major change for this update was to bump up PoPs late tonight over
western areas, as the HRRR is now fairly aggressive in developing
reinvigorated convection over the Gulf overnight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 730 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017/
AVIATION...
Gusty southeast winds are already dying down and will continue the
trend this evening. Overnight, expect SE wind 5-10 KT, increasing
only slightly Tuesday. For Naples, effects of westerly Gulf Breeze
will diminish after sunset, with SE winds returning overnight.
Another Gulf breeze arrives at Naples midday Tuesday, turning
winds WSW at around 10 knots. Showers today remained inland of
terminals, and with only isolated activity expected through mid-
morning Tuesday, kept TAFs dry through 15Z. Thereafter, scattered
activity is forecast, and although isolated thunderstorm cant be
ruled out, kept terminal forecasts with VCSH for now.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017/
DISCUSSION...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 PM EDT...South Florida continues to remain situated in a
fairly humid and moist airmass ahead of a slowly approaching frontal
boundary associated with low pressure in the Missouri River Valley.
Dewpoints remain well into the upper 60s and lower 70s across most
areas, with even a few mid 70s readings across far southern portions
of the peninsula. These high dewpoints along with temperatures into
the mid and upper 80s, and even some lower 90s in western interior
areas, have yielded heat index values of lower 90s across many
areas, quite warm and muggy for the first day of May.
This warm and muggy airmass, aided by the formation of an enhanced
southeasterly Atlantic sea breeze and weak Gulf sea breeze, has led
to an active convective afternoon across interior areas of South
Florida. An earlier streamer of showers stretching from the upper
Keys into south-central Florida has given way to more numerous
showers and embedded thunderstorms, now stretching into portions of
the Gulf Coast and Lake Okeechobee region but still confined to
interior areas. This trend will continue into the early evening
hours, with local outflow and sea breeze convergence enhancing
activity, some of which may be locally strong with brief gusty
winds, frequent lightning, and brief heavy rainfall. Most of the
activity will be confined to interior areas, but a few showers and
perhaps a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out for coastal areas
either.
Heading into tonight, ongoing convection will begin to rapidly
diminish, with a northwesterly upper-level flow possibly bringing in
one last round of scattered showers and storms into western portions
of the east coast metro. For the rest of tonight, generally dry
weather will prevail, although some showers and isolated storms will
continue to be possible mainly over the Gulf waters. Winds over
interior areas look to decouple and combined with recent rainfall,
some patchy fog will be possible late tonight. Low temperatures will
be mild, generally in the low to mid 70s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned frontal boundary will continue to slowly approach
the region on Tuesday, keeping the region in a moist flow regime.
With the front and associated forcing slightly closer to the region,
along with hints of possible shortwave energy swinging by to the
north, another active convective day will ensue on Tuesday. Coverage
looks to be greater than today, with scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms possible across much of mainland. Heavy rain and
lightning will be the primary threats with thunderstorms, but cannot
rule out some brief gusty winds with the strongest storms as well.
While most areas will dry out some Tuesday night, widely scattered
showers will continue to linger into the overnight hours as the
front begins to stall just northwest of the region.
On Wednesday, the frontal boundary will begin to decay as its parent
storm system lifts well to the north into southern Canada. With less
of a synoptic forcing influence, mesoscale features will dominate
with the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes being the primary forcing
mechanisms. Plenty of remnant moisture and instability will remain
present to promote another day of diurnally-driven scattered showers
and storms mainly across interior and western areas. Rainfall on
both Tuesday and Wednesday is much welcomed and needed across
portions of South Florida continuing to deal with moderate to severe
drought conditions.
Temperatures in the short term period will continue to be warm for
early May standards, with highs into the mid and upper 80s on
Tuesday, although not as warm as today with more convection
expected, and Wednesday mid 80s to lower 90s. Lows will be in the
upper 60s to mid 70s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An active northern stream pattern across much of the CONUS looks to
continue into the long term period, as both the GFS and ECMWF prog a
deep longwave trough eventually becoming cutoff from the flow across
the lower Great Lakes region. This system will swing a trailing cold
front across the region, with both models continuing to show fairly
decent consensus in the passage occurring sometime late Thursday into
Friday. Will need to continue to monitor timing trends in the long
range guidance, as cutoff lows can produce high amounts of
uncertainty 5 days out. An increase in shower and thunderstorm
coverage will accompany the frontal passage, but it is still too
early to get into any specifics with heavy rain and/or strong
thunderstorm potential.
Behind the frontal passage, high pressure looks to build into the
region from the north, ushering in a much drier airmass compared to
the previous week. At this time, dewpoints look to plummet into the
50s across much of the region for the weekend and ending the humid
conditions at least temporarily. Temperatures throughout the long
term period will be near to slightly above average.
MARINE...
Outside of brisk southeast winds of 15-20 knots creating exercise
caution levels for the Atlantic waters through tonight, generally
good boating conditions are expected to prevail across the local
waters through midweek. Outside of local sea breeze effects, the
flow will generally be southeasterly on Tuesday and
east/northeasterly on Wednesday at less than 15 knots. Seas will be
4 feet or less over the next few days. Isolated showers, and perhaps
a thunderstorm or two, will be possible especially in vicinity of
both coasts. An approaching frontal boundary late in the week will
bring an increasing threat for showers and thunderstorms to the
local waters.
BEACH FORECAST...
A High Risk of rip currents will continue to remain in effect for
the Atlantic beaches through early Tuesday morning with continued
brisk southeast onshore flow. Decreasing winds, outside of local sea
breeze effects, will help to reduce the rip current risk for the
Atlantic beaches Tuesday, but remnant wave energy and coastal
resettling will pose at least a Moderate Risk for rips during the
day Tuesday. Rip current risk looks to continue gradually
diminishing heading into Wednesday as well.
FIRE WEATHER...
No significant fire weather concerns are anticipated through at
least Friday, with relative humidity expected to remain above
critical levels along with chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Behind a frontal passage Friday, a much drier airmass will be
ushered into the region, with relative humidity values possibly
dipping well below 40 percent, and will continued to be closely
monitored over the coming days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 74 86 72 86 / 20 50 20 20
Fort Lauderdale 75 85 74 85 / 20 50 20 20
Miami 75 86 74 87 / 20 40 20 10
Naples 73 86 71 88 / 30 40 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for FLZ168-172-173.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
UPDATE...92/IRL
DISCUSSION...92/IRL
MARINE...92/IRL
AVIATION...23/SK
BEACH FORECAST...92/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...92/IRL