Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/24/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1007 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017
...RECORD RAINFALL LIKELY MONDAY...
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will affect the area tonight through
Tuesday. High pressure will then build into the area through the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
24/01z mesoanalysis placed low pressure between KOKZ and KBNL,
somewhere over Burke or Jefferson Counties in east-central
Georgia. A sharp stationary front extends east of the low,
roughly along a Waynesboro-Branchville-Holly Hill-Saint Stephen
line with a cold front dropping south across south-central
Georgia, through the central Florida Panhandle and into the
northeast Gulf of Mexico.
As expected, a line of strongly forced convection has developed
in the warm sector ahead of the approaching surface low. Expect
this line to slowly intensify over the next several hours and
move across much of Southeast South Carolina and Southeast
Georgia as deep layered forcing/mid-level height falls
associated with upper low moving into northern Alabama
overspreads the area. It still looks like the risk for severe
tstms will be the greatest roughly along and north of a
Millhaven-Aleda-Ashepoo-Hollywood-Folly Beach line, including
the Charleston Metro Area where the better juxtaposition of
instability, forcing and 0-6km bulk shear will be found. The
approaching line will have the capability to produce localized
damaging winds and some large hail, but the tornado risk looks
the highest across northern parts of Colleton, Dorchester and
Berkeley Counties where low-level winds are backed a bit more
closer the stationary front. Several transient low-level
rotational signatures have already been detected on KCLX and
KCAE over the past hour.
High resolution guidance has been consistent in showing the
approaching convective line slowing down and possibly becoming
stationary across the Charleston Tri-County area early Monday
as the upper low digs into central Georgia and the region of
strongest upper difluence becomes aligned along the I-26
corridor. Both the RAP and H3R show a "Joaquin-like" reflectivity
signature over Charleston, Dorchester and Berkeley counties as
high tide occurs. Opted to expand the Flash Flood Watch west to
include Dorchester County and move the start time up to 2 am.
High tide will occur in the Charleston Harbor just before 7 am.
For the late evening update:
* increased pops and expanded the mention of locally heavy
rainfall to most zones.
* made minor adjustments to sky cover as well as hourly
temperatures and dewpoints.
* increased QPF across far interior Southeast Georgia were radar
already shows some areas seeing rainfall amounts >2 inches.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday: The deep mid-level cut-off low pressure area will gradually
end a digging phase and bottom out near east central GA during the
morning and then move east toward the CSRA by late day. Surface low
pressure will also translate from northeast GA into coastal SC by
later in the day. While models are in relatively good agreement on
major synoptic features, there remain subtle timing differences
which could make or break some forecast elements, especially
rainfall amounts. We have a Flash Flood Watch for Charleston and
Berkeley Counties for Monday as deep moisture interacts with strong
upper forcing. The main concerns for the watch were obviously the
heavy rain likelihood in Downtown Charleston along with
portions of upper Charleston County west to Moncks Corner and
Jamestown where models continue to hone in on the axis of
highest amounts. Temps aloft will be cooling during the day
adding to the elevated instability pool to the north of the
Savannah River. Severe weather potential Monday is strictly
limited to the morning and early afternoon hours across the
Charleston 4-county region and highly dependent on breaks in
the clouds during the period where the most potent upper forcing
is expected. We think the risk for isolated storms with large
hail and damaging winds is isolated while the heavy rain threat
remains paramount. Over southeast GA, rain chances will be lower
and despite some colder temps aloft, tstm potential does not
look too impressive either to the south of I-16.
Monday Night: The upper low will begin to move away from the upper
SC coast late while the conveyor of deep moisture pulls well to the
north. Clouds will be variable at times as deep cyclonic flow
prevails. Lows will be cooler in the 55-60 degree range.
Tuesday: Upper heights continue to rise and mostly dry weather
is expected. There could be a few instability afternoon showers
across eastern SC, but coverage and amounts look sparse.
Wednesday: A warm day is on tap as upper ridging dominates. Highs
in the mid 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Deep layered ridging will result in dry weather and highs in
the mid to upper 80s. A weak upper shortwave will approach early
Friday but is expected to be deflected to the north.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS: Main concerns are low vsbys/cigs within TSRA. Corridor of
greatest impacts looks to occur roughly 09-15z as a strong line
of convection moves through. Opted to show prevailing MVFR with
a tempo group with vsbys as low as 1 1/2SM, or just below
Alternate Minimums. Briefly lower conditions will be possible as
the main line moves through. The main line should move east of
the terminal by 14-15z with improving conditions thereafter,
although a secondary line could move through the cold front
itself.
KSAV: Right now, it appears the risk for tstms will remain just
north of the terminal, but close enough for possible impacts.
Will show TSRA from roughly 04-07z given latest model trends,
but limited conditions to MVFR for now. Lower conditions could
occur if tstms move farther south than expected. A secondary
line of showers with the cold front itself will cross the
terminal roughly 11-14z. Opted for VFR for now with this line,
but lower conditions could occur depending on how much lingering
instability is realized.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Periods of flight restrictions, mainly
low ceilings, possible through Tuesday morning as a low pressure
system moves through. VFR conditions will return Tuesday afternoon
into late week.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight: A low pressure system will move into southeast SC/GA
tonight with winds and seas expected to increase. Small Craft
Advisory is in effect for the Charleston county waters and outer
Georgia waters beginning at 02z. Elsewhere, conditions are
expected to remain below advisory levels, although certainly
could not rule out a few gusts nearing 25 kt. Seas on average
will 3-5 ft nearshore, 4-6 beyond 20 nm.
A wind shift from south/southeast to southwest will occur across SC
waters on Monday as the strong upper low digs into GA. While the
onshore flow will subside, a SCA will linger through the day into
the early evening on Tuesday over AMZ350. Over the outer GA waters,
seas will subside during the day but are expected to ramp up again
Tuesday Night in jetting offshore flow.
Modest offshore winds expected Tuesday behind the low pressure
system with seas over the offshore GA waters possibly rising back
above 6 ft for a brief period with a chance for periodic gusts to
25 KT from Grays Reef seaward.
Southerly winds will return mid to late week as Atlantic high
pressure prevails.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record rainfall amounts for 24 April:
KCHS: 0.81" set in 1943,
KCXM: 1.12" set in 1937,
KSAV: 1.55" set in 1941,
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...Flash Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening
for SCZ044-045-050-052.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for
AMZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Monday for AMZ374.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1049 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system over the southeastern states will begin to make
slow progress northward along the coast over the next several
days.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
High clouds continue to stream northward moisture swirling
around a potent upper low over TN surges our way. They are
thickest over the south, thinnest over the north.
The HRRR shows light rain just beginning to creep up over the
Mason-Dixon line counties shortly after sunrise, otherwise it
will remain dry tonight with a ridge of high pressure holding
on across the northern tier counties of PA, while the northern
extent of deepening, moist easterly flow off the Atlantic
advects north to near the Mason/Dixon line well after midnight.
Broken to overcast mid/high clouds will help to curb the temp
fall across the south. Mins will be mainly between 40-45
throughout the Central and Southern counties of the state.
Clear to scattered thin high clouds will continue through most
or all of the overnight over the Northern Mountains allowing
lows to dip into the 30s with some patchy frost.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The aforementioned upper low will deepen and cut off over the
Southeastern states Monday before taking a left hand turn and
drifting north along the Mid Atlantic Coast later Monday through
Wednesday.
The main core of the anomalously strong, moist southeasterly
winds (approx -3 sigma U-component of the 850 mb wind), will
move from VA and NC Late Monday, to Southern and Eastern PA by
Tuesday afternoon. This translates into gradually lower and
thickening clouds Monday and Monday night with some light rain
or showers expected to spread in from the south during the mid
to late afternoon hours across the far south, before reaching
the Interstate 80 corridor around or shortly after midnight
Monday night.
Rainfall does not look heavy on Monday, as the best
moisture/easterly wind anomalies pointed to the south of the
state and the sfc low will still be down near Myrtle Beach.
Similarly mild high temps are expected across the northern PA
TAF sites, while temps cooler than Sunday by some 8-10 deg F
are forecast across the south.
Mid to upper 50 deg highs for the south Monday could be a few to
several deg F on the high side.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The period of Monday Night to Tuesday Night will be dominated
by the flow around a slow moving cut-off low which eventually
will pass to our south and east. This system will bring clouds
and light rain to the parts of our region for several days. The
models are in fair agreement on timing and position of this low.
However as we get into Tuesday around 12Z the ensembles begin
to diverge. The bands of precipitation should begin to streak
through the region, mainly the east Tuesday morning. Timing and
position of the low will change whether or not different
portions of central Pennsylvania get precipitation. Have
adjusted the orientation and adjusted POPS accordingly. The
gradient will be tight on any precipitation amounts. Once this
system goes by it will get warm fast. It should feel like
summer through the second half of the week.
As the 500 hPa low fills and the attendant moves to our
northeast the chance of rain should fall off Wednesday into
Wednesday evening. Our 850 hPa temperatures will rise rapidly
Wednesday and it should be noticeably warmer Wednesday relative
to Monday and Tuesday.
Thursday into Saturday the 850 hPa temperatures will be well
above normal, mainly in the 14 to 16C range and we will be on
the western edge of a rather impressive early season subtropical
ridge.
Thursday through at least Saturday should be very warm and
humid. We should have several days with high temperatures around
80.
Thursday into Friday will see the passage of large upper level
trough. Have left broad POPS as this trough will move a
corresponding front through.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure and associated dry air mass over Pennsylvania will
ensure widespread VFR conditions and light winds through
tonight. Latest LAMP/downscaled NAM and SREF suggest there
could be some patchy fog in vicinity of LNS early Monday
morning. However, given the expected amount of mid and high
level cloudiness, feel significant fog formation is unlikely.
Low pressure lifting up the east coast will spread lowering
clouds and spotty light rain into southern Pa Monday. Initially,
dry air in the low levels should keep conditions VFR. However,
model soundings and SREF prob charts suggest MVFR conditions
will become likely by Monday evening across southern Pa, with
IFR even possible at AOO/JST.
Outlook...
Tue...Rain/low CIGs likely.
Wed...AM rain/low CIGs possible.
Thu...AM fog possible. PM tsra impacts possible.
Fri...PM tsra impacts possible.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Ceru
AVIATION...Fitzgerald
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
636 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017
The latest rap analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold
front dropping southeast from Merrill to Oshkosh early this
afternoon. As winds turned to the northeast behind the front,
temperatures fell 5 to 10 degrees at Green Bay and Appleton.
Meanwhile, scattered light rain and snow showers continue to pass
over northern WI, north of Merrill and Antigo. Quite a temperature
difference between Land O Lakes where clouds and precip have kept
temperatures in the middle 30s, and Wautoma where the mercury has
reach 70 degrees. As the front waffles first south tonight and then
north on Monday, cloud trends and relative humidities are the main
forecast concerns.
Tonight...The cold front will settle across southwest Wisconsin to
northern Illinois. However, this front will remain shallow, since
moderate return flow will already start ramping up at 850mb during
the evening. As a result, do not think the cloud cover will make it
that much further south, and trended more optimistically with the
sky cover. Regardless, the clouds should retreat north overnight as
cirrus invades from the west. With a brisk east wind, temps falling
to near 30 in the north to the upper 30s over the southern Fox
Valley.
Monday...The cold front will retreat northward as winds veer to the
southeast with low pressure moving across the central Plains. Very
dry air over the mid-Mississippi Valley will return northward, which
should provide high temps in the 60s and low relative humidities.
Mid and high clouds will increase in western areas through the
afternoon, but the airmass is too dry below 12kft for precip
chances. Winds, however, will become gusty, with some gusts up to
30 mph possible.
.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017
Active weather expected for the rest of the week, with potential
for at least two significant synoptic scale weather systems. The
jet energy for these systems is still out over the Pacific Ocean,
so the models are still having some trouble coming up with a
consistent track for these systems, which of course is important
for bit precipitation type and amounts.
The first system arrives Tuesday afternoon or evening as a strong
upper jet lifts northeast from southeastern Colorado with some
weaker jet energy moving across the northern Plains. These
systems phase to some degree and produce several waves of low
pressure that move northeast along a nearly stationary front from
Oklahoma to Lake Michigan. The models are a bit further west with
these systems than they were yesterday, which makes snow in
northern Wisconsin less likely. There should be periods of
significant rainfall Tuesday night through Thursday, which will
probably result in some minor flooding, as several rivers and
streams are currently near or above bankfull.
Another system looks to arrive Saturday or Sunday, but there is
even less model agreement with that system. The GFS and ECMWF do
agree that it moves well west of the forecast area, which could
bring some heavy rains and then a threat of severe storms if it
unfolds as depicted.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017
The precipitation band that impacted northern WI earlier in the
day has lifted north, so the precipitation threat has ended.
Patchy MVFR ceilings remained near the Upper Michigan border,
but those should be short-lived.
The cold front that arrived earlier today will lift to the north
as a warm front on Monday. The main effect of this frontal
passage will be increasing southeast winds, which will gust to 20
to 25 knots at most locations. Mainly middle and high level clouds
are anticipated through the TAF period, along with VFR conditions.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017
As the cold front lifts back north as a warm front across the
western Great Lakes on Monday, warmer temperatures will return along
with gusty southeast winds and low relative humidities. Near
critical fire weather conditions are possible on Monday afternoon as
temperatures rise into the 60s, winds gust to 20 to 30 mph,
and relative humidities bottom out in middle to upper 20s.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
FIRE WEATHER...MPC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1043 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A deep and vigorous low pressure system moves across Georgia to
the Carolina coast creating a lengthy period of moderate to heavy
rainfall and below-normal temperatures that persists through
Monday. Storm total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 5 inches are
likely. A drying and warming trend begins Tuesday and continues
through next weekend. A slight chance of diurnal mountain showers
and thunderstorms returns Thursday and persists through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1030 PM EDT: The Flood Watch has been expanded to include all
of Upstate SC. Oconee and Pickens counties have been worked over
late today and latest HRRR/RAP runs bring another two inches to this
area overnight. Given the shower band feeding into the lower
piedmont and wrapping occurring east of the 850 mb low center, this
seems quite reasonable and could lead to flooding. Elbert County
remains the primary question for GA counties, but there should be
some additional eastward drift before the band becomes oriented more
NW to SE across SC. Will thus keep the GA counties out of the Watch.
Otherwise, water vapor imagery shows the cutoff upper low spinning
slowly southeast across northern Alabama this evening, and the RAP
height fields (which have handled this fairly well) bring the center
of circulation slowly to the central GA/AL border by daybreak
Monday. Strong upper divergence is already in place atop the region
this evening and the low track will bring strengthening
southeasterly 850 mb flow to the western Carolinas and yield
continued isentropic upglide and upslope terrain flow into the Blue
Ridge. Given the precipitable water values surging to +2 to +3
standard deviations above climo, the afore mentioned forcing, and
the steepening 850 to 500 mb lapse rates overnight, anticipate
improved precipitation rates through the nighttime hours and well
into Monday. Hydro problems are likely to worsen quickly overnight.
The hydro focus will increasingly shift northward into the NC
foothills/piedmont and the I-77 corridor over time. Anticipate
fairly solid 2 to 4 inch QPF amounts going forward, with localized
totals near 6 inches possible with any training. Conditions will
slowly improve from the southwest during the day on Monday as the
entire system slides slowly east. Deformation banding north and
northwest of the 850 mb circulation could keep localized maximum QPF
stripes in our piedmont through late Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 205 PM Sunday: Obviously the main short term concern will be
timing the ending of the precip potential, especially across the
eastern part of the forecast area, as upper low continues to wobble
in the vicinity of the SC Coast. This will place the I-77 corridor
in a good position to receive continued bands of rainfall associated
with the deformation zone north and west of the cyclone. In fact,
there`s a decent consensus in deterministic guidance that another
.5-1 inch of rain will fall in this area Monday evening, and we will
forecast as much. This amount of qpf would certainly warrant an
extension of the Flood Watch, but that decision can be left to later
shifts and further collaboration with WFOs to our east and south.
Pops gradually taper off after midnight through Tuesday, really not
dropping below 20 percent until Tue afternoon, in line with
uncertainty regarding how quickly the upper low`s influence will end
for our area. Temps will also be a bit problematic on Tuesday, as
areas along the Upper Savannah River Valley will likely see clearing
skies by afternoon, while locations along the I-77 corridor should
underneath a cloud shield. Tuesday`s high temp forecast therefore
ranges from around 80 across the USRV to mid/upper 60s across the
northwest NC Piedmont.
The remainder of the short term will be decidedly tame, as upper
ridging builds along the Eastern Seaboard in the wake of the upper
low, and downstream of large scale central Conus height falls. This
will result in a return of much-welcomed dry conditions while Wed
max temps are expected to return to the 80s in most locations east
of the mtns.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 PM Sunday: The medium range will see the establishment of
a massive/broad upper trough encompassing much of the western 2/3 of
the Conus, with ridging expected to dominate much of the East Coast.
This will result in unseasonably warm temperatures continuing across
our area through at least the end of the weekend.
The first in a series of short waves ejecting from the western Conus
trough will ride along the western periphery of the Eastern ridge
Wed night through Thursday, passing well west and north of our area.
Nevertheless, a weakening/occluding cold front is forecast top
approach the southern Appalachians and vicinity by the end of
Thursday. There will be a deep fetch of Gulf of Mexico moisture
immediately ahead of this feature, resulting in a decent amount of
pre-frontal instability. Despite the weakening forcing, this should
provide decent chances for convection, mainly across our western
areas Thu afternoon/evening. Shear is forecast to be adequate (but
not much more than that) for organized convection, so the severe
threat will depend substantially on the amount of buoyancy that is
realized, and this is still quite uncertain.
Warm sector air mass remains pretty much ensconced across the area
late in the week through the weekend, with global model guidance
depicting a summer-like pattern, with anomalously strong Bermuda
high supporting plenty of heat/moisture/instability each afternoon.
Diurnal deep convective chances (mainly in the 20-40% range) will
therefore be advertised each day from Fri through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT: Several cells moving northward from the Midlands have
brought the potential for occasional cloud to ground lightning
strikes despite the wedge layer in place. Still anticipate primarily
heavy rain showers to grow and expand across the region as the
backing 850 mb jet strengthens late this evening and overnight.
Anticipate mainly IFR cigs this evening, transitioning down into the
LIFR range with the heavier showers overnight. Very little variation
is then expected through much of the rest of the period with gusty
NE winds continuing along with IFR vsby and LIFR cigs. There should
be a shear layer atop the wedge, but probably not low enough for
LLWS conditions at present.
Elsewhere: the expansive precipitation shield spreading into the
terminal forecast area from the southwest this evening should
stabilize ceiling conditions in the IFR range early, with LIFR
ceilings likely overnight. The surface wedge appears deep enough to
keep thunder out of the TAFs at present. Gusty northeast winds will
continue across the foothills, but with more of a northerly
component at KAVL. Some modest recovery is possible from KAND to
KGMU late Monday as the deeper moisture pivots northward.
Outlook: An area of low pressure will move slowly across the
Carolinas toward the coast Monday night through Tuesday. Low clouds
and precipitation will be slow to dissipate behind the departing
system. Conditions should gradually improve later Tuesday through
Wednesday morning as dry air works in behind the departing low.
Return flow moisture ahead of the next system will develop late in
the week.
Confidence Table...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z
KCLT Med 63% Med 62% Med 62% Med 70%
KGSP High 82% Med 62% Med 61% Med 75%
KAVL Med 72% Med 76% Med 65% Med 66%
KHKY High 80% Med 70% Med 69% Med 70%
KGMU Med 76% Low 58% Med 61% High 85%
KAND Low 51% Low 54% Low 58% Med 66%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The Flood Watch has been expanded to all of Upstate SC as feeder
bands of heavier showers continue to develop upstream through GA and
back into FL. Hydro conditions will steadily worsen overnight, with
Flood Advisories becoming more common and Flood Warnings likely
being needed late tonight through Monday, expanding in area and
duration through the day on Monday as additional precip amounts of 2
to 4 inches, with isolated 6+, add up. None of the river forecast
points are forecast to go into flood currently, but locations along
the Catawba river chain will need very close monitoring through
Monday as the heavy rain axis could pivot over the area.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Flood Watch through Monday evening for NCZ033-035>037-048>053-
056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...Flood Watch through Monday evening for SCZ001>014-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...CDG/HG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CDG/HG
HYDROLOGY...HG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
731 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 343 PM EDT SUN APR 23 2017
12Z raobs/latest wv imagery and RAP analysis show a confluent wnw
flow alf over the Upr Lks btwn nrn branch troffing centered over
Hudson Bay and a zonal srn branch flow dominating the CONUS. The
cold fnt which swung thru Upr MI late last ngt/early this mrng has
pushed into scentral WI and stalled, but the frontal bndry at h85-7
is still nearly ovhd and supporting a bkn band of rain/snow showers
over the wrn cwa. Sfc hi pres bldg into nw Ontario is extending a
sfc rdg axis over Lk Sup, and the llvl drying/sharper acyc flow
associated with this feature has brought some clrg to that portion
of the cwa. Very dry air is also located to the s of Upr MI even
over the stalled sfc fnt. Looking well upstream, a vigorous shrtwv
that caused 12hr h5 hgt falls of nearly 100m in the srn stream flow
is moving into the central Rockies.
Tngt...As the srn branch shrtwv now moving into the Rockies
aprchs the wrn Plains late, a sfc lo pres is fcst to deepen over
the ncentral Plains while the hi pres over northern Ontario drifts
slowly to the e. As the flow alf veers to the s in response to
the falling mslp to the w, the fntl bndry that stalls to the s wl
return to the n. The associated isentropic ascent best shown on
the 290-295K sfcs (h8-7) wl support some lgt pcpn generally in
the form of snow over mainly the nw half of the cwa away fm drier
llvl air over the e, but the steady shift to the n of the warm fnt
and influence of the llvl dry air wl limit pops/pcpn amnts. The
presence of a good deal of lingering clds over the w and incrsg
hi/mid clds over the e associated with the waa wl limit the
diurnal temp drop despite the llvl dry air.
Mon...The shrtwv/lo pres in the ncentral plains is fcst to drift ne
toward nw MN late in the day, lifting the sfc warm fnt and band of
waa pcpn to the n of Upr MI. The short range guidance shows quite a
bit of mid lvl drying in the warm sector. With the prospect of at
least some sunshine thru hi clds and h85 temps rising to arnd 5C,
temps should rise well into the 50s, especially in the downslope
areas influenced by the llvl se flow, where readings wl probably
reach the 60s. Tended toward the hier end of guidance for temps.
More clds/at least sct showers could arrive over the far w late in
the day as the lo pres/deeper mstr and stronger forcing ahead of the
shrtwv aprch.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT SUN APR 23 2017
The main forecast highlights through the week remain the active
pattern advertised by the medium range models, which will bring
multiple chances for precipitation across the area. Winter weather
is expected to make a return with freezing rain, sleet, and snow
possible through the middle/end of the week. There is still quite
a bit of uncertainty, so continue to monitor the forecast!
Monday night into Tuesday, low pressure will continue to lift
northeast towards western Upper Michigan as a couple of weak
shortwaves lift northeast across the region. As the better lift and
deeper moisture arrives, expect rain to begin across the west early
Tuesday morning. Further to the east and south, mid-level air looks
far too dry for any overnight precipitation. Through the day on
Tuesday, precipitation will begin to wane across the west; however,
a north to south oriented surface trough is expected to remain
anchored across the central portions of Upper Michigan. This surface
trough will become further enhanced Tuesday evening and overnight as
additional shortwave activity lifts across the region, bringing back
precipitation chances across much of the area. Precipitation type
will also be an issue as the upper-level flow continues to remain
quasi-parallel to the surface trough, making the Northern Great
Lakes serve as a pivoting point between the colder Canadian air
dropping southeast and warm, moist air lifting northeast. Tuesday
evening into the overnight hours, precipitation is expected to
remain all rain as surface temperatures through the low levels
remain above freezing. However, there will be a transition over to
freezing rain and sleet as colder Canadian air undercuts the warm
moist air across the west on Wednesday morning and may push east
into portions of central Upper Michigan. Forecast soundings show the
potential for limited cloud ice at times; therefore, we could see
more freezing drizzle than rain across the west. For simplicity and
consistency have opted to leave it as freezing rain for now. Warming
surface temperatures over the past few weeks will also complicate
ice accumulations, albeit still possible, especially on elevated
surfaces. Impacts from this wintry mix of precipitation will be
highly dependent on the longevity and intensity of freezing rain.
Precipitation is expected to linger through much of the day on
Wednesday. However, confidence is much lower in how things will
evolved on Wednesday with precipitation type across the central
portions of the area. With the colder, shallow air continuing to
move east with time, did opt to run with non-diurnal temperature
which did push some mentions of freezing rain across portions of
central Upper Michigan. Wednesday night through Thursday, as the
main longwave trough beings to lift northeast out of the central
Plains, the elongated surface trough draped across the region will
transition from an open wave to a maturing system. As this
occurs, there is the potential for locations across Upper Michigan
to see accumulating system snow and freezing rain as this system
tracks across the region; however, this will be highly dependent
on the track of the system. The medium range models track the
system anywhere from the western U.P. to eastern U.P. overnight
Wednesday into Thursday. The further east track would be more
favorable for system snow across the west and possibly central
portions of the area. However, if the system were to take the
western most track, much of the area may be dry slotted during the
day Thursday. Considering the variety of plausible solutions, not
comfortable pinpointing any specific amounts or areas that may
see system snow at this time. However, this is definitely a time
period that needs to be monitored as the system continues to
develop and evolve over the next few days.
Depending on when the track of the system, precipitation chances may
linger through the day on Thursday before gradually coming to an end
from south to north as the system finally exits the region and moves
north of the Hudson Bay. Friday looks mostly dry as high pressure
briefly moves overhead. This weekend the active weather will
continue with additional chances for precipitation. The GFS is much
more aggressive bringing precipitation back north on Saturday,
whereas, the ECMWF is much slower.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 730 PM EDT SUN APR 23 2017
As warmer air aloft advances n tonight, some -sn may develop across
the Keweenaw. However, right now potential appears quite low for any
pcpn at KCMX, so only a VCSH was included in fcst. Otherwise, as
drier low-level air continues to expand into the Upper Great Lakes,
lingering MVFR cigs at KIWD should clear out to VFR conditions
before 06z. VFR conditions will then persist thru Mon. At KCMX/KSAW,
VFR conditions will prevail thru the fcst period. During Mon,
winds will become gusty to 20-25kt at all terminals.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 351 PM EDT SUN APR 23 2017
N winds up to 20 kts over the e half of the lake will diminish this
evening as a hi pres ridge builds over the Upper Lakes. As this
ridge shifts to the e and a deepening lo pres in the Plains moves
toward MN, expect winds to veer toward the e-se and increase up to
30 kts on Mon. Where the winds will be strongest over the ncentral,
there could be a gale. Winds will veer southeasterly overnight at 20
to 30 knots before gradually diminish to 10 to 15 knots across the
western half of the lake by Tuesday morning. Further central and
east, expect the southeast winds of 20 to 30 knots to persist. A few
gale force gusts to 35 knots are possible early Tuesday night.
Northeast gales of 35 knots look likely across much of the lake as
the pressure gradient increases behind an exiting surface trough
late Tuesday night through Wednesday. It is possible these winds may
hold on through Wednesday night into Thursday, especially across the
central and eastern portions of the lake. By Friday morning, winds
will back west-northwest and diminish to around 10 to 20 knots.
These winds will continue through the weekend, but veer to the east-
northeast.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Ritzman
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...KC/Ritzman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
629 PM PDT Sun Apr 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Expect cool, breezy, and showery weather this week. The most
widespread precipitation will likely occur Tuesday night into
Wednesday with the potential for a half inch or more of rain over
portions of the Idaho Panhandle and southeast Washington. A ridge
of high pressure next weekend has the potential to bring the
region a day or two of drier weather.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: The forecast has been updated for the rest of this
evening based on radar trends. Satellite shows the region under a
broad upper trough with the jet axis south of the region in
northern California placing Washington and north Idaho on the cool
and unstable side of the jet. As of 620 pm radar indicated a few
thunderstorms approaching Walla Walla and some lightning is
possible in the Blue Mountains and thus forecast was updated for
this. Also increased POP`s for the Lewiston and Pullman areas this
evening with HRRR holding together these showers as they come off
the Blue Mountains with a passing weak wave providing added lift.
Elsewhere showers are more isolated in nature with a somewhat dry
boundary layer with dew points in the lower to mid 30s and
temperatures mainly in the 50s. Latest HRRR shows showers a bit
more isolated or widely scattered this evening over most of
Central and NE Washington into the Idaho Panhandle with only weak
incoming forcing and instability. Thus some lowering of evening
POP`s were made. Increasing POP`s around midnight still on track
however for NE WA/N idaho as the weak wave tracks across the area.
JW
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: As of 23z this afternoon scattered showers were
occurring mainly over NE WA/N Idaho mountains. The boundary layer
was relatively dry at all TAF sites with temperature/dew points
spreads of 15-25F. Thus VFR conditions are expected to continue
through the evening despite a general increase in light showers
as the next wave enters. By Monday morning as low level upslope
flow occurs for the eastern TAF sites (KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW) and
the boundary layer continues to moisten with light showers...MVFR
conditions may develop. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 39 53 38 56 42 53 / 30 70 30 30 50 60
Coeur d`Alene 39 52 38 54 39 52 / 60 80 30 50 60 80
Pullman 40 52 38 55 42 53 / 60 70 50 30 60 80
Lewiston 43 57 42 60 46 58 / 60 50 50 30 70 60
Colville 38 55 36 57 41 54 / 40 40 20 50 60 80
Sandpoint 39 51 36 52 37 50 / 90 40 20 60 70 80
Kellogg 38 49 35 50 37 48 / 70 90 60 60 60 90
Moses Lake 43 59 39 62 45 61 / 20 20 20 10 40 20
Wenatchee 42 57 41 60 43 58 / 30 30 20 10 20 20
Omak 38 58 37 63 43 60 / 30 20 10 10 20 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
957 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Expect wet weather at least through Monday night, with surface low
in the Tennessee Valley slowly moving eastwards to the South
Carolina coast by Tuesday morning, while upper low slowly traverse
the same general area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 950 PM EDT Sunday...
Forecast update will reflect the addition of Rockbridge and
Ahmerst County, VA to the Flood Watch. Latest qpf guidance from
WPC offers a solutions of around two inches of rain falling
within an area of increasing upslope flow, especially late
tonight into early Monday.
Have attempted to depict a small decrease in the coverage of the
precipitation for a few hours after midnight tonight, before
increasing again close to 300 AM or 400 AM. Total rainfall
amounts now may be close to four inches along the crest of the
Blue Ridge south of Roanoke, VA, and eastward into the Piedmont
of North Carolina and neighboring parts of Southside Virginia.
Have adjusted hourly temperatures and dew points based upon the
latest observations and expected trends into the early morning
hours.
As of 635 PM EDT Sunday...
The forecast update for early this evening will reflect mainly
one notable change. A gap of a few hours in the widespread
rainfall, to more of a scattered coverage, is expected across
the southeast portion of the area. This gap will translate
northward from near the NC/SC border before additional
precipitation fills the gap back in later in the evening. Have
also made minor adjustments to the hourly temperatures based
upon the latest observations and expected trends through the
evening. Some rain-cooled areas across the Mountain Empire
region of southwest Virginia are already cooler than the
overnight forecast low. Have adjusted the forecast low
accordingly.
As of 327 PM EDT Sunday...
Flood Watch continues for most of the region through Monday evening.
Positively titled upper level trough will deepen as it pivots to the
southeast with a closed mid level low eventually traveling across
the Southeast States. This pivoting will result in increasing
difluent mid and upper level flow and associated divergence to the
northeast of the low. A dual upper level jet structure may enhance
upper level divergence over western North Carolina this evening into
Monday morning.
Rain, heavy at times will spread northeast across the region this
evening into tonight and continue into Monday. Moderate to heavy
rain is expected in the flood watch area, with 1.5 to 3 inches
likely through Monday night. Locally higher amounts likely near the
Blue Ridge, south of Roanoke.
Initially the northern edge of the rain shield is sharp and utilized
the 16z HRRR which captured the rain placement on the WSR-88d the
best, then used a blend of GFS and NAM. The Day 1 excessive rainfall
outlook placed an moderate risk across southwest portions of
forecast area. This is supported by the better lift, jet
dynamics, upper difluence and terrain enhancement. Models are
hinting at higher qpf to our south across North Carolina and
South Carolina. This may be suggesting potential for elevated
convection to our south. Not expecting any thunderstorms or
deeper convection for our area with wedge in place, and this
should keep hourly rainfall rates limited. However, long
duration rains will create a flood threat especially for
creeks/streams and rivers. The flash flood threat will be
isolated but cannot rule out some pockets across the southern
Blue Ridge this evening into tonight. In contrast, for late
tonight, there is some potential for dry slot to work toward the
Mountain Empire before the easterly fetch off the Atlantic
pulls rain back to the west Monday. Complex forecast tonight,
but models agree in general weather of cloudy and rain. Low
temperatures tonight will range from around 40 degrees in the
mountains to near 50 degrees in the Piedmont.
Increased pops on Monday in the west as vertically stacked cyclone
slowly pinwheel southeast. Timing looked a tad slower on the
movement. Good moisture transport continues Monday with PWAT
around 1.25" along/east of the Blue Ridge and into the Piedmont.
Stable thermodynamic profiles owing to residual wedge should
hinder any thunderstorms. Northeast to north winds especially in
the east will increase in speeds Monday afternoon into Monday
night. This is a result of the strengthening pressure gradient
between high pressure over the Northeast and low center over the
Carolinas. Played high temperatures a little cooler with rich
cloud cover and rain with readings from the mid 40s in the
mountains to the mid 50-s in the Piedmont.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Sunday...
Wedge is gone on Monday night as surface and low level winds respond
to approaching low. Bufkit guidance showed easterly flow and a
saturated sounding 6 to 9 thousand feet deep. This strong upslope
and Atlantic inflow will prolong widespread moderate to locally
heavy rain. Axis of 850MB jet crosses northern North Carolina and
southern Virginia Monday night and will be pointing toward Maryland
and northern Virginia on Tuesday morning.
Little variation in GFS/NAM forecast track and timing of surface and
upper low. Upper low moves off the southeast coast Monday night then
tracks northeast, very close to the coast, passing over the Outer
Banks on Tuesday night. On Wednesday the 500 mb low is far
enough away from Virginia that moisture wrapping around the west
side of the system will be retreating from the Virginia, West
Virginia and North Carolina. Will be slowing down the clearing
on Tuesday. Similar to current forecast will have a low
probability of showers in the Virginia piedmont on Tuesday
night and a dry forecast for Wednesday. Stayed on the cooler
side of guidance for maximum temperatures on Tuesday since more
cloud cover is expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...
500MB heights rise Thursday and Friday over the southeast United
States but with an overall deepening upper trough over the central
United States. A deep closed low develops over the Rockies by
the end of the week which will keep much of the east downstream
in broad southwest flow.
At the surface a low pressure system tracks into the Great Lakes.
The front with this system stalls in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
on Thursday and Friday. 850MB temperatures increase to as high
as +18 on the ECMWF on Friday over southern Virginia and
northern North Carolina. Will have Saturday and Sunday with
continued above normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 725 PM EDT Sunday...
Only the area generally along and north of a KLWB-KLYH line
remains VFR this evening. The remainder of the area is
experiencing IFR/MVFR ceilings with some pockets of LIFR.
Visibilities have been variable between VFR and MVFR.
Through the overnight hours, light to moderate rain will be
across the region along with primarily LIFR/IFR ceilings and
VFR/MVFR visibilities thanks to the rain and light fog.
Little change in prevailing conditions is expected through the
day on Monday.
Winds will generally be from the northeast across the central
and eastern sections of the region at 5 to 10 kts, with western
sections having more of an easterly wind and similar speeds.
Higher elevations will have slightly higher prevailing winds
with some gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range.
Extended Aviation Discussion...
Poor aviation conditions expected to continue through Monday
night, and at times into Tuesday, thanks to the slow moving
upper low and attendant sfc system. Look for gradual improvement
sometime Tuesday from west to east with better flying wx for by
midweek, though another front may bring scattered
MVFR showers/storms toward late Thursday in the mountains. Drier
weather will return for Friday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...
No changes to the flood watch, with still some model differences
in placement of highest rainfall threat. High-res models and
analogs along with pattern recognition favor the southern Blue
Ridge from Roanoke to Boone, east to the piedmont of VA/NC as
those areas which appear to be in line to receive 2-3" through
early Tuesday. This amount of rain combined with the 1 to 2+
inches that has already fallen since Friday should lead to hydro
issues on rivers, as well as smaller creeks and streams.
Looking at the analogs this pattern favors April 5th, 1993, and
March 27th, 1993 which produced some minor to moderate flooding
along portions of the Dan and Roanoke River mainly downstream of
Danville and Altavista. Still will have to see how this sets up
as we had been dry prior to this event.
WPC has kept the moderate risk of FFG exceeded over the
southern Blue Ridge. As mentioned in the near term, deep
convection seems limited, thereby will have to rely on upslope
component to enhance rainfall rates, so isolate flash flooding
is possible, but more longer term >6hr flooding is more likely.
Saturated ground may also result in downed trees and rock or
mud slides.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch through Monday evening for VAZ007-009>018-022>024-
032>035-043>046-058-059.
NC...Flood Watch through Monday evening for NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...Flood Watch through Monday evening for WVZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/KK/WP
HYDROLOGY...KK/MBS/WP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
854 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017
.UPDATE (Overnight and Monday)...
00z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis shows southern stream
shortwave energy that crossed the southern half of the
Florida peninsula today beginning to exit into the Atlantic,
with deep layer subsidence and drying overspread the
Florida peninsula in its wake. Further upstream, a large
closed upper low feature can be seen spinning over the TN
valley this evening. Associated with this system, a surface
cold front trails southward into the northeast Gulf of
Mexico. Regional radars show that this front is supporting
areas of showers and storms across the the Carolinas/Georgia
and into the FL panhandle. However, further south from
here, the shower activity becomes very limited over the NE
Gulf as the convection becomes removed from the best
synoptic lift/Qvector convergence ahead of the upper low,
and the updrafts encounter fairly hostile thermodynamic
conditions above 10,000 feet.
This situation looks to hold through the overnight into
Monday morning as the whole system shifts eastward and the
front approaches the FL west coast. A few scattered showers
can not be ruled out, and the forecast will show 20-30% rain
chances through Monday morning, however, the hostile
conditions aloft and the continued main synoptic influence
staying along and north of the I-10 corridor suggests that
measurable rainfall for all is highly unlikely, and those
that do see a showers will certainly not consider the
amounts a drought-buster.
Those down toward the Fort Myers area were lucky enough to
see some good rainfall earlier Sunday associated with the
passing shortwave trough mentioned above, but not much
more additional rain should be expected with this next
system.
The last of the widely scattered showers will exit the
region toward midday as the cold front moves into the
Atlantic. Much of Monday will be characterized by more
clouds than sun and a developing gusty NW wind. The most
clouds should be closer to the coast as conditions appear to
favor quite a bit of statocu migrating onshore. The further
inland one goes, and the further into the diurnal heating
cycle we get, these stratocu should transition to a sct-bkn
cumulus field. Little chance of any diurnal showers Monday
afternoon...as the synoptic flow will far overpower/prevent
any defined sea-breeze, and the moisture layer will become
ever more squeezed/shallow from above.
Those with boating plans on Monday, either on the eastern
Gulf, or an inland lake, should be prepared for rather gusty
NW winds, sustained in the vicinity of 15 knots with gusts
likely over 20 knots at times. So, rather choppy conditions
developing Monday on the water as we head through the
morning hours and through the entire afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION (24/00Z through 25/00Z)...
Potential for any isolated sea-breeze showers seems to be
diminishing. Will have prevailing VFR through the remaining
evening hours. Good potential for developing/lowering cigs
late overnight, and have included all terminals with MVFR
cigs between 09-14Z. Some potential KLAL/KPGD might see a
period of IFR, however, confidence too low to include in
this TAF package. Cold front slides through region Monday
morning with winds increasing and becoming gusty during the
mid/later morning hours. Gusts over 20kts are likely through
a good portion of the day out of the W and NW behind this
front. Post-frontal setup would suggest quite a bit of
statocu off the Gulf through the day. Therefore, continued
periods of MVFR 2-3KFT bases will be possible after 14Z
through at least the early afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OR THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. WINDS INCREASE BY LATER MONDAY MORNING AND REMAIN AT
0R NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY...PROVIDING LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS.
&&
Prev Discussion... /issued 258 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017/
SHORT TERM (Rest of today-Monday)...
An upper low near the south-central Mississippi Valley this
afternoon tracks southeast to the GA/SC border. A short
wave trough over southern FL lifts northeastward and is
absorbed into troughing from the upper low. At the surface a
low in northern GA trails a cold front south across the FL
panhandle then southwestward over the Gulf of Mexico. The
surface low move to the Carolina coastal waters by late Mon
afternoon with the front sweeping into the east Gulf tonight
then across the state Mon. In response to the front and the
upper level short wave trough...a surface trough over the
straits from western cuba to the northern Bahamas lifts
northeast and merges in the Carolina surface low.
The deepest moisture...model PWAT values at 2 inches or more...
which resulted in some record rainfall in the south has shifted
away. However enough residual moisture...PWAT in the 1.5 to 2 inch
range...and instability remain which along with sea breeze
convergence and limited day time heating to support a chance of
showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms through the rest of the
afternoon. There should be a break in rainfall from late afternoon
or early evening through the later night hours. But expect some
cloudiness along with patchy late night fog...especially in areas
that received rain. Slightly deeper moisture returns with the front
but limited with PWAT in the 1 to 1.5 inch range...enough for
scattered showers or a few thunderstorms. The front and associated
weather begin to impact...the Nature Coast in the pre-dawn
hours...the Tampa Bay area around sunrise...Southwest Florida around
mid-afternoon...then exits by late afternoon. Winds will pick
noticeable with the front but will mainly be of concern for
aviation/marine interests.
MID TERM/LONG TERM (Monday Night-Sunday)...
Monday night into Wednesday the mid/upper level shortwave trough
will continue to move up along the eastern seaboard away from the
region followed by ridging gradually build over Florida as a
deepening trough sets up over the western half of the CONUS late in
the week through the weekend. At the surface weak high pressure will
be over the area for Monday night through Thursday, then late in the
week into the weekend a stronger high pressure will build in from
well out in the Atlantic Ocean. For Monday night into Tuesday night
a low level west to northwest flow will be in place bringing some
cooler and drier air into the region under fair skies. During
Wednesday and Thursday the flow will shift to south to southwest
with limited moisture continuing across the region so expecting
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with rain chances less than 10
percent. For Friday through Sunday the low level flow will shift to
southeasterly with moisture gradually increasing leading to some
additional clouds. There will be a slim chance, less than 20 percent,
for a light shower/sprinkle Friday, then over the weekend some more
moisture could move into the region leading to a few showers, but
will keep rain chances at around 20 percent at this time as moisture
does not look that deep. Temperatures will be close to normal for
Monday night and Tuesday then as the ridging builds aloft we`ll see
a gradually warm up a couple of degrees each day reaching the mid
80s coast to the lower 90s inland for Friday through Sunday.
FIRE WEATHER...
Recent heavy rainfall...especially in the south...along with more
limited rain as a cold front moves through late tonight and during
Mon will provide enough moisture to preclude any low RH concerns for
the next few days.
$$
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 70 77 65 80 / 10 20 0 0
FMY 69 80 65 82 / 10 20 0 0
GIF 67 79 60 83 / 20 20 0 0
SRQ 70 76 64 80 / 10 20 0 0
BKV 66 76 56 81 / 20 20 0 0
SPG 70 76 65 79 / 10 20 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Mroczka
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RUDE/CLOSE